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ICT YT - 2023-02-15 - ES Live Commentary AM Opening Session - February 15 2023

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-02-16 09:26

Outline

01:54 - How to get an audio check of the session.

07:34 - What makes it more interesting to the downside for foreign currencies.

15:54 - Dollar index and consequent encroachment -.

22:30 - What would be the benefit of the market going up to this level here?

28:24 - What to look for in dollar index.

36:53 - Dollar index and fair value gap.

43:02 - S&P is not supporting that move at all in dollar.

47:39 - Why you keep mentioning dollar? -.

53:45 - Kill the individuals that are short and utilize their stop loss.

57:42 - Key turns in the marketplace -.

Transcript

1 00:01:54,210 --> 00:02:03,240 ICT: Morning folks if you give me an audio check real quick on Twitter just tweet to me five by five audio and chart is good at a while now it can begin.
2 00:03:05,430 --> 00:03:23,160 checking Twitter now see if you guys can hear me awesome thank you thank you alright so let's get over here and take a look at yeah yes the right one
3 00:03:56,910 --> 00:04:09,840 I've already shared something this morning on Twitter no talk about it as I have opportunity right now and just want to see we have a minute and a half before
4 00:04:09,840 --> 00:04:10,410 the opening
5 00:04:36,330 --> 00:04:53,970 so I'm looking at the dollar index. And we've had a nice run higher and I'm going to favor the sun sell side on es early on and watch the opening range. So
6 00:04:53,970 --> 00:05:06,750 what that means is the first 30 minutes I'm looking for how price delivers So I don't have a hardline bias where I'm wanting to take anything as a short but I'm
7 00:05:06,750 --> 00:05:11,370 looking for another run through this low so that we at least know what I'm referring to
8 00:05:21,990 --> 00:05:34,350 as a reminder, I have an appointment today that I have to escape for. So at 1030 promptly with not a minute or two before I'll be closing session watch this
9 00:05:34,620 --> 00:05:49,380 freeway gotta break in here wanting to see if we can draw back down into 4115 4115 and a half. I don't like the lows that we have here
10 00:05:55,980 --> 00:06:04,050 I apologize. I have a little bit of a tickle in my throat this morning. So I'm probably going to drive me nuts with that wish I could avoid doing it but I
11 00:06:04,050 --> 00:06:08,970 can't. So we're watching the delivery from here
12 00:06:15,600 --> 00:06:22,380 and focuses down here do not trade on this, your observing
13 00:06:28,920 --> 00:06:46,980 opening range can be squirrely meaning that it can do a lot of gyrations. You've already had a nice move early on. So the mindset I'm holding here is if we get
14 00:06:46,980 --> 00:06:57,750 down there below that 4116 level and right now we're looking like we're respecting a little bit too much on that order block here so it might need to go
15 00:06:57,750 --> 00:07:03,540 up a little bit higher before we're gonna go lower. So watch that order block here
16 00:07:10,440 --> 00:07:25,170 take these lines off, they've already accomplished them out in the night. So read in here. Watch that. I saw a guy tweet to me yesterday. I didn't see it
17 00:07:25,170 --> 00:07:35,310 till late last night. He says I'm I'm confused watching this live streams, you're saying salsa then you're talking about buyside. Right? That's tape
18 00:07:35,310 --> 00:07:44,910 reading, it's not trading, you got to get a feel for what you're looking for as a setup. No setup here versus reading the tape getting a feel for what it wants
19 00:07:44,910 --> 00:07:45,360 to do.
20 00:07:54,390 --> 00:08:15,570 Now as long as we stay above 103 75 103 $71 index that would keep me looking for lower prices for stock index futures and forex. If we go back below 103 75 103
21 00:08:16,260 --> 00:08:35,790 point $74 index then that would allow for upside for foreign currencies and risk on would be back in style. What makes it difficult still and we're reacting off
22 00:08:35,790 --> 00:08:44,460 of a volume and balance in here. I apologize I was looking at my dollar this or here's what we're keying off of right now
23 00:09:01,590 --> 00:09:13,710 if you take a look and you still have time to do so because nothing really to worrisome for it at the moment. But if you go to your daily chart on es P look
24 00:09:13,710 --> 00:09:31,350 at that in relationship to the range that we've been in since February 2. So February 2 to now we're just chopping wood there's marking time it's not really
25 00:09:31,350 --> 00:09:42,780 moving a whole lot which means that your your trading has to be absolutely surgical, intraday, getting in if you get a win, get it be done. We haven't
26 00:09:42,780 --> 00:10:00,330 really entered a point at which where we have a sustained run longer term on the daily chart. I would favor going higher on the lower timeframes. It's me Next,
27 00:10:01,290 --> 00:10:16,410 and the dollar index would have to really crushed that one or 370 levels of the downside before I would get decisively bullish on ES. Meaning in layman's terms
28 00:10:16,410 --> 00:10:27,120 and make an easy so that we understand what's going on, I believe we are in a choppy condition, it's gonna be range bound probably until we lose that dollar
29 00:10:27,120 --> 00:10:38,760 index level as mentioned, or if we start powering higher up, what makes it more interesting to the downside for ES and foreign currencies, is if you look at the
30 00:10:38,760 --> 00:10:50,490 dollar index, you can pull that up on trading view with DX y, and toggle the selection for T V C, that's the CFD on that index. If you take your attention to
31 00:10:50,490 --> 00:11:09,570 January 5 2023, that candles low one, zero 3.98. That level is what we've already tapped into. Or no, I'm sorry, that's what we're looking for. On the
32 00:11:09,570 --> 00:11:10,020 upside.
33 00:11:15,179 --> 00:11:32,969 We have we have, sorry. So today's intraday high, comes in at 10410 4.06. And I'd want to see that daily candle on January 5, if we can get through the
34 00:11:32,969 --> 00:11:42,989 midpoint of that, which is the mean threshold. So everything becomes much more animated, and much more dynamic in price delivery. So speed, big moves, big
35 00:11:42,989 --> 00:11:53,129 candles would occur if we can get up through on dollar through mean threshold. And that would be heavy down close candles on stock index futures. As long as we
36 00:11:53,129 --> 00:12:04,379 are below that mean threshold, it's going to bang around and chop for ES and for forex. So that's kind of what we're expecting in here. So watch that blue shaded
37 00:12:04,379 --> 00:12:09,539 area here on the chart for ES. That's our next premium array are drawn liquidity.
38 00:12:18,809 --> 00:12:29,699 So far, it is tapping that old. This is a five minute I failed to mention that apologize in the example I showed this morning on execution. This little teal
39 00:12:29,699 --> 00:12:36,779 colored rectangle is a five minute fair Vega. Let's see a spring up into that fair bag up here.
40 00:12:43,529 --> 00:12:51,719 So notice how we moved off that order block here as we were hitting it. Tree through this didn't really didn't offer too much, I was really looking forward
41 00:12:51,719 --> 00:13:00,059 to come back down and touch it after I had done that I would have mentioned that being the case, likely to draw to Croatia and see if we can draw up into this
42 00:13:00,059 --> 00:13:11,579 level here. Vega right there. Do that I'm gonna try to start the practice of extending my rectangles when I'm identifying a fair value gap because sometimes
43 00:13:11,579 --> 00:13:20,729 when you have it laying over top, it's hard to see my wicks in the shadows of the candles. So if I extend it past that we can see where they're really formed
44 00:13:20,849 --> 00:13:38,459 based on the candle low here in the candle high. But this teal colored is a five minute fair value gap. And New Day opening gap is up here. It's just the range
45 00:13:38,489 --> 00:13:52,409 one tick difference between the 5pm close yesterday and then the 6pm opening. So the separation between that one hours difference that's a level that you want to
46 00:13:52,409 --> 00:13:59,489 have annotating your charts all the time. And you can see this is just beautiful to see something like that deliver right and the bulk of ICT.
47 00:14:04,590 --> 00:14:15,450 Right so we have essentially hit that and let's see what the the high on that candle comes in at 4129 and a half. And the delivery on this candle comes in at
48 00:14:15,450 --> 00:14:28,680 4129 and a half. So that's perfect. Now what you want to be paying attention to is we do have a new imbalance here. And this is an old one. So while if, say for
49 00:14:28,680 --> 00:14:36,870 instance, let's make the argument that we're going to run for the buy side that's running right in here. And if we slip from where we are on dollar right
50 00:14:36,870 --> 00:14:49,590 now we're trading at one or 392 on dollar so if it was the slide down, there's a small little imbalance on dollar. If you look at your 15 minute timeframe. It
51 00:14:49,590 --> 00:15:02,040 may not be influential this morning, but it just caught my eye looking at it. It's the 7:45am Today's Fairbury got that little I think that timeframe, if it
52 00:15:02,040 --> 00:15:11,700 were to retrace, lower, that, in my opinion, would be the last line in the sand I mentioned 1031 a 3.78, it needs to stay above that, for it to be bullish,
53 00:15:11,700 --> 00:15:22,710 which would be risk off, and weakness for ES and foreign currencies. But now looking at the 15 minute timeframe, it could trade down into that a fair Vega
54 00:15:22,740 --> 00:15:33,600 and still go higher. But it would have to stay above that fair value gap on the 745 candle. So 07 colon four or five, that's the time on Dollar Index, you can
55 00:15:33,600 --> 00:15:43,650 pull that up on trading view with dx, y is the symbol. And TVC is the the actual instrument, you're going to call up and have it set to a 50 minute time frame.
56 00:15:43,650 --> 00:15:57,570 So 745 time, you'll see that fair value got there hanging around that one, zero 3.68 level for dollar. So we're coming down here, touch the sphere have a gap
57 00:15:57,570 --> 00:16:11,400 here. Because we have essentially, with this low, we've worked below the bodies of these candles here, this here. Remember the wick, that's a gap. So we're
58 00:16:11,400 --> 00:16:30,090 trying to measure the willingness to want to move, spill my water here, water we want to see if it makes a more meaningful run below the sell side here. Dollar
59 00:16:30,090 --> 00:16:44,700 index is still holding firm. Now we're back below this fair value gap here. So let me zoom in a little bit more. In this instance, this many times would be an
60 00:16:44,700 --> 00:16:55,560 opportunity where I would look for a break below that come back up and use the low or the consequent curriculum of an old trader, I got the frame I set up that
61 00:16:55,560 --> 00:17:04,560 would send me into a discount array being like an old low here, or this low over here. Or if there was a fair value gap and something to do left, that would be a
62 00:17:04,560 --> 00:17:13,860 scenario like that I would be looking for because it's I'm favoring the likelihood that will will probe that low. Even though we've already went down
63 00:17:13,860 --> 00:17:24,900 below. Why am I saying that that's even considered for me. We've already went through this candles close to low. So that's what consequent encroachments here,
64 00:17:24,990 --> 00:17:37,590 extend that through, we've already went down to and through it. So all of this choppiness in here, it may be just a precursor to an eventual run back down
65 00:17:37,590 --> 00:17:46,140 below here, even if it is to reject and go higher later on. Or if it continues to go lower. I still like the idea of looking at this today. So even if we don't
66 00:17:46,140 --> 00:17:54,990 do it, while I'm here with you today live, barring any kind of breakdown on the dollar index, based on the levels I gave you moments ago, I would look for that
67 00:17:54,990 --> 00:18:07,860 as a potential afternoon setup. the buy side here, me these are relative equal highs. You can see these are closer. But if in my opinion, they're gonna bump
68 00:18:07,860 --> 00:18:19,470 that high, they'll run through here and tag that. So getting back to our saying there's a gentleman that I'm assuming it was a gentleman apologize if it isn't.
69 00:18:20,190 --> 00:18:34,710 It's no telling how you guys identify anymore today but the fairway got here, watch this and see if it wants to come back down, touch it. And then springboard
70 00:18:34,710 --> 00:18:48,090 from that into the buyside resting above here, in here. And if we can run to 3675, or let's call it 4137. That would be a five handle run.
71 00:18:54,300 --> 00:19:06,420 Consequent encroachment now has been reached in this way, right I got. And the benefit of being able to sit and take read like this, is you want to identify
72 00:19:06,420 --> 00:19:13,110 the times when the markets most likely gonna be choppy, which is what I've already outlined this morning, based on everything I've described based on the
73 00:19:13,110 --> 00:19:22,560 daily chart where we are in that range between February seconds, candle and today, we're just marking time going sideways. So you have to be very specific
74 00:19:23,010 --> 00:19:32,310 and nimble when these lower timeframe charts otherwise, you can get burned, the runs can turn around and you quickly they can be short lived, meaning they might
75 00:19:32,310 --> 00:19:42,150 go but soon as they go wherever they're going to go to whether it be above an old high or in balance. Once it goes there, it's right back to the middle range.
76 00:19:44,820 --> 00:19:55,170 And you're probably asking, What do you mean by the middle range middle of what range? Well, we had a lot of movement between the 30 and here for women to chart
77 00:19:55,800 --> 00:20:02,970 and we keep gravitating back to about midpoint here. So if you look at the bottom of that old file If everybody got which is a teal colored rectangle, use
78 00:20:02,970 --> 00:20:12,840 that kind of like as a baseline midpoint. And it just keeps gyrating around that consolidates here moves away comes back to here comes back to it here, we moved
79 00:20:12,840 --> 00:20:23,760 above it now. So does it stay above the bottom of that five minute fare Vega. If it stays above it, as long as it stays above that, we are looking for the market
80 00:20:23,760 --> 00:20:33,330 to expand up and attack the buy side or buy stop stressing about here. It does not translate to a signal or a trade, it just means that you're reading price
81 00:20:33,330 --> 00:20:43,980 action, which in time, over time, you'll be able to see setups that form. There's no setups here. I've not said here's a setup that you're just measuring.
82 00:20:44,520 --> 00:20:51,270 I'll tell you if I see something it'll be very plainly explained to you this is I want to see it run from here to here right now. This is what it should do
83 00:20:51,270 --> 00:20:51,960 shouldn't do that.
84 00:20:57,780 --> 00:21:07,170 So yes, it would feel a little disjointed. If you just started watching these and you're expecting to hear this is a buy, this is a sell. You're rushing and
85 00:21:07,170 --> 00:21:15,360 you're in Nassau, a few other people commenting. I see what you're saying. And it's happening. But I'm frustrated. I don't know how to see it like that. Well,
86 00:21:15,360 --> 00:21:31,950 why would you expect that you just started sitting down with me. I mean, I just began last week, it's only been one week. unrealistic expectations. So already,
87 00:21:32,370 --> 00:21:43,860 we have 1516 minutes of opening range. And nothing really excites me in here. Like it doesn't really get me interested of anything.
88 00:21:52,349 --> 00:22:00,929 Remaining 4128 or below, it keeps us in contention for that sell side liquidity pool at 4116.
89 00:22:15,030 --> 00:22:21,330 It should run that 4136 50. I would expect that now.
90 00:22:30,420 --> 00:22:39,060 They left this high here which fall short of these relative equal highs. So while I have this one annotated, you also own your chart, you want to have that
91 00:22:39,060 --> 00:22:47,580 noted here. And you want to watch and study. This is the whole point of watching price action like this, when you're not having a trade on it. You don't care if
92 00:22:47,580 --> 00:22:55,140 the outcome is going to be favorable or not. You're watching the candles and you're getting used to reading that. Seeing how they how they form, what their
93 00:22:55,140 --> 00:23:04,140 relationship with the previous candles are, how they're reacting off of an old imbalance, an order block width how, what's the speed and urgency that it wants
94 00:23:04,140 --> 00:23:18,570 to get into the spy side? In my opinion, it's spending too much time. At that level here too, so you can see. Okay, so what I'm looking at as I'm seeing these
95 00:23:18,570 --> 00:23:28,200 two highs here, and how we repelled away from that. We did not take that low out. With this past year, we did go through consequent curtailment of that wick.
96 00:23:28,860 --> 00:23:40,320 So let's play devil's advocate for a moment, what would be a reason or a catalyst for a opportunity? If there is an entity out there that's dubbed smart
97 00:23:40,320 --> 00:23:50,040 money, what would be the benefit of the market going up to this level here? Or maybe this high here? It's something you could study is does it go above these
98 00:23:50,040 --> 00:24:03,690 highs pause or sharply reject it and then work down towards these lows here that are now considered relatively equal. So because I think that that high here is
99 00:24:03,690 --> 00:24:12,990 suspect, meaning that you're probably going to want to probe the liquidity above that if it were to run above that the narrative and my mindset would be okay, if
100 00:24:12,990 --> 00:24:24,750 it's going there, I want to see those that break lower and then seek the liquidity that's classified I still saw Dellinger came back and touch there five
101 00:24:24,750 --> 00:24:35,790 minutes. We have a gap again here at this moment is one of those times where I'm like okay, I got two three minutes it needs to deliver it doesn't do it. If I
102 00:24:35,790 --> 00:24:43,290 don't have a trade on the same because it's done this. I start counting down it has to do with the next two to three minutes. And since these are women candles
103 00:24:43,710 --> 00:24:50,220 over the scope of the next two to three candles they would have to deliver 41 35.75 or higher
104 00:24:57,839 --> 00:25:07,229 keeping in mind that we are in a choppy can decision. We're not looking for trending new trending models that evolved this morning. We're just studying how
105 00:25:07,229 --> 00:25:16,109 the market seeking liquidity and it's aimless right now, it absolutely has nothing that stands out as a high probability low risk trade. So if you are
106 00:25:16,109 --> 00:25:18,479 pushing the button you are gambling.
107 00:25:37,980 --> 00:25:45,810 See has been real fickle about getting up there. It's getting there closer and closer and closer. But it's been real lethargic and the wait once to get there.
108 00:25:46,260 --> 00:25:52,740 Now I want to see it pop, I want to see it just reprint 4136 5041 30 675.
109 00:26:00,630 --> 00:26:10,380 Still below the 35.75 level, I know some of you're like where's the US 500 chart. And Michael, it's, it's confusing for me to keep looking at that chart. I
110 00:26:10,380 --> 00:26:20,460 tried, I'm trying to do my best to help all of you, I just can't. And if you're looking at us 500 You're looking at my live us. Sorry, es chart live. So you can
111 00:26:20,460 --> 00:26:30,360 compare and contrast what you use and relate to them. And comparatively, they're not going to mark to the same price identified perfectly. But the candle
112 00:26:30,360 --> 00:26:39,930 formations are pretty close. So you can track everything I'm doing. Don't be upset with me because I'm trying to do more than I'm reasonably expected.
113 00:26:47,190 --> 00:26:55,590 So that blue rectangle, which is this fear of a gap here, I would prefer to see it hold price and it's already one outside of it. We're back down in there five
114 00:26:55,590 --> 00:27:03,210 minutes. So now, think about this in your journals in your in your notes while you're watching this, because we've identified the likelihood of it being
115 00:27:03,210 --> 00:27:12,510 choppy. And also, you're learning how frustrating it can be if you're looking for an objective, which is why I told you to sit on your hands because we're in
116 00:27:12,510 --> 00:27:22,890 choppy conditions. The market is going to be very fickle, fickle, meaning that it's going to be a little bit of movement that you want to see then a lot more
117 00:27:22,890 --> 00:27:30,180 retracement and you want to indoor, then it moves in your favor again thinking is going to deliver what you want to do. And then it pulls back again. And then
118 00:27:30,180 --> 00:27:39,630 it starts to run real close to it. And then once you do it fails and wilts. So this is the these are the conditions that I blew accounts with. When I was
119 00:27:39,630 --> 00:27:50,010 trading before I knew how to trade. I would put real money into these conditions and hold on to these moves and wrestle it and say no, I put my trade on. I'm
120 00:27:50,010 --> 00:27:58,560 going to get my position filled, it's going to be it's going to go here, you're not going to scare me out of it. And it would just grind me up. So you have to
121 00:27:58,560 --> 00:28:07,230 know by experience sitting in these marking conditions with someone that can identify what they are beforehand and how they're going to trade it are they
122 00:28:07,230 --> 00:28:14,970 going to be aimless, meaning they're just going to chop around and present potential opportunities to the neophyte they would see something in here and say
123 00:28:14,970 --> 00:28:26,310 Oh, well this is one of those things ICT talks about or this other methodology of trading dollar looks like it's trying to make a higher high. That was the MAL
124 00:28:26,490 --> 00:28:39,090 if we do press on dollar and go hit the my charm sorry. Look at your 50 minute timeframe Dollar Index, we have a high at one Oh 4.06. If we clear that and show
125 00:28:39,090 --> 00:28:50,550 a lot of animation to the upside on dollar that's going to push us down into that sell side. We're below this fair value get now this becomes a point of
126 00:28:50,550 --> 00:29:00,960 which I would look please don't take this as a trade. But I would look for this now because we took the short term low here. So we have the high higher high
127 00:29:01,140 --> 00:29:08,700 failed to go go to a level I wanted to see you go to we have a shift in market structure here. It's bearish. How do we frame it? We have the fair value get low
128 00:29:08,700 --> 00:29:19,710 here in consequent coachmen, if we are able it may not do it but if it comes back up here in touch that fair Vega or if we don't run off all the way to get
129 00:29:19,710 --> 00:29:28,500 down to a rate one shot which looks like he's going to do now you guys are dogpile on ICTs disservice cards now, I'm in nothing. But I would like to see it
130 00:29:28,500 --> 00:29:36,030 delivered that sells out now. And if it was able to come back up and touch the bottom of that fear that you got, that would have been better. I would have said
131 00:29:36,030 --> 00:29:46,710 that's a that's a short for sale sign. And that's where that's where we're at right now. And we did so without dollar making that higher high. So that is a
132 00:29:46,710 --> 00:30:10,440 bit concerning. In my mind. I gotta see how we didn't we didn't get the higher high on dollar NASDAQ you can look for or swell when is that 205 32 And I'm
133 00:30:10,440 --> 00:30:30,630 gonna give you a wrong number here 205 40 And then we have the low of the morning it 12 530 for the quarter dollar would have to really spread its wings
134 00:30:30,630 --> 00:30:41,340 here and go higher for me to feel confident otherwise this run lower on s&p for that sell side we've identified that might be just them accumulating Long's on
135 00:30:41,340 --> 00:30:54,840 that sell side and then run for the buy side at 4136 50. And the reason why you can consider that as a potential is because we've done no higher high on Dollar
136 00:30:54,840 --> 00:31:07,230 Index, so we ran that low out on Yes. So while it did go to a full liquidity we were looking for that in itself might be a setup. Because it's choppy, it's new,
137 00:31:07,230 --> 00:31:16,710 it's aimless, today it would have to stay below that constant encouragement of that to go colored fare Vega 4128 consequent current
138 00:31:23,430 --> 00:31:34,920 year dollar is not able to sustain its run here at least for right now it hasn't so by identifying these types of market profiles and when I say profile that's
139 00:31:34,920 --> 00:31:45,330 not market profile in the sense that you use that vertical sorry horizontal volume indicator and you're looking for a point of control and that's I have no
140 00:31:45,330 --> 00:31:56,040 faith in any of that stuff. And I'm not trying to make fun or saying things disparaging about it I'm just That's my opinion and that's how I view it watch
141 00:31:56,040 --> 00:31:57,360 the old fair pay gap here
142 00:32:02,790 --> 00:32:08,580 this is the time when if we sell off from that fair value gap on us then we should see lift on dollar and dollar should make a higher high
143 00:32:15,119 --> 00:32:21,599 you want to see it roll right on through the midpoint of this wick if it's going to go lower it's going to show you with animation just rip right through that
144 00:32:21,599 --> 00:32:25,229 and show no respect of the midpoint of that gap or the wick which is again
145 00:32:35,460 --> 00:32:36,240 dollar triumph
146 00:32:55,830 --> 00:33:04,920 Yeah, we're gonna get a higher high on dollar we should see this thing let's go to 50 Min timeframe
147 00:33:10,530 --> 00:33:20,730 Alright, so if we lose this low here and start to get animated in larger ranges and start to speed up and we have higher dollar advancement if we start seeing
148 00:33:20,970 --> 00:33:29,970 the 15 minute timeframe on Dollar Index really start to move to the upside and then tear through that 104 point 10 that would set my mind on potentially
149 00:33:29,970 --> 00:33:47,220 returning back to that old new week opening gap down here but we'd have to we're in striking distance of the dollar making a higher high today so Incidentally, I
150 00:33:47,220 --> 00:33:59,100 told you y'all yesterday with the British pound that told you to mark out your your fair value gap and we traded down into it and then once we got below it
151 00:33:59,190 --> 00:34:16,230 traded back at as resistance and that was a nice sell off for the London session this morning. And broke lower still ripping lower we're below 119 9291 90 Euro
152 00:34:16,470 --> 00:34:29,310 similar fashion I know you've been wanting some ICT goodness in the forex market but I've been away from it. You need to go back guys come
153 00:34:36,869 --> 00:34:52,289 so you can see how we went down, took the cell side out and was hanging inside that lower portion in that range. So when you see things like this is very
154 00:34:52,289 --> 00:35:02,849 rewarding when you know what to expect and it's if it's gonna be choppy. It saves you all of that mental capital about looking For big runs right away, when
155 00:35:02,849 --> 00:35:11,519 there's nothing there yet, where most retail traders, they're gonna be all over this thing. They're gonna be trying to do something constantly. And wise men
156 00:35:11,519 --> 00:35:20,939 tread carefully. When it's like this, I'm willing to let go of the first move of the day when it's like this. I don't care. Because in my back pocket, I know
157 00:35:20,969 --> 00:35:32,519 that if I'm surprised, okay, say something comes out some some event that was unforeseen, new to me or anyone else that would be speculating, and it causes
158 00:35:32,519 --> 00:35:43,499 the market to really move a lot. That's the problem. I know I have the afternoon session that I can participate in. And I'm not worrying about or fearing missing
159 00:35:43,499 --> 00:35:52,259 a move and forcing the understanding of what the market is going to do right now. That's what I was telling you I was concerned about, because we didn't see
160 00:35:52,259 --> 00:36:05,399 that higher high $1 yet. And we went down to the south side here. I'll be back up there. Oh, five minutes. That I was plugged in here. Click the wrong one in
161 00:36:07,169 --> 00:36:19,319 that one. Yeah. No, no. Helpers, not that much help this morning. I apologize. I buy him a car for his birthday. And he's slacking already.
162 00:36:24,450 --> 00:36:33,150 Alright, so we've taken the sell side here. As I mentioned, moments ago, I said if they're going to keep it in the range like this, it's where it's aimless.
163 00:36:33,690 --> 00:36:43,740 They could take it down here this outside accumulate Long's, and they could be using this area up here as an offset. So no words like smart money could be
164 00:36:43,740 --> 00:36:54,270 buying the cell stops, waiting for price to go up to the buy side here. And they would offset that. And that would be the morning move for them. Still haven't
165 00:36:54,270 --> 00:36:55,770 had that higher high on Dollar Index.
166 00:37:02,250 --> 00:37:24,660 4128 that crosses that on es, then we're going to look for 4136 5041 36 evens. If it can touch that fair value gap just below it written here. The way you test
167 00:37:24,660 --> 00:37:33,120 this as if it trades to the top of the fair Vega, or the middle point and rejects and goes higher, then that's probably indicating that we're going to see
168 00:37:33,120 --> 00:37:37,290 by side taken out and by side is here
169 00:37:49,170 --> 00:38:03,120 another reason why we have these conditions like this is because the morning move prior to 830 and drive in to that lower low. That was the real move for the
170 00:38:03,120 --> 00:38:18,780 morning. That was real easy was back here. We broke through the old new week opening gap, create a fair value got an order block trades up into itself sell
171 00:38:18,780 --> 00:38:31,440 off again. Down into sound liquidity. Alright, so we broke through our fair value gap there. And dollar looks like it may expand up into looks like that
172 00:38:31,440 --> 00:38:42,240 very seriously. If it's going to retrace lower now on dollar so let's see if we can get a drop off this fair bet he got one yes.
173 00:38:48,630 --> 00:39:00,120 This feels like a whole lot of uncertainty back and forth. That's exactly what you're observing. Do you want to trade in this environment? And that's that's
174 00:39:00,150 --> 00:39:10,800 what you take away from it. And verse like looking at what we see here. Look, look at the range between 830 Right here. I'll move my mouse around, if you for
175 00:39:10,800 --> 00:39:18,660 those of you that are able to know the answer to this because I don't know, I was asked by someone and this is also something I wanted to do as well. I don't
176 00:39:18,660 --> 00:39:26,730 know how to highlight my mouse cursor while I'm using OBS, and it may not offer that feature. But if it does, I would love for you to be able to send me a
177 00:39:26,730 --> 00:39:38,220 tweet, let me know now see it that way. Don't send me emails because I have you don't even know it's 76,000 emails. I can't keep up with it. So I don't want to
178 00:39:38,610 --> 00:39:47,580 share my email address because that's not a real efficient way of communicating with me. But look at the range between 830 and where we are now. Okay, real,
179 00:39:47,580 --> 00:39:57,930 real sloppy, real choppy. It's real indecisive, exactly what we were calling for. And we still have not had that dollar index like a higher high. So that to
180 00:39:57,930 --> 00:40:13,110 me, takes us back to that Sell side taken, which we got here. Whose retail mindset would be? They sold on the breakout. Okay, trend followers, okay, if it
181 00:40:13,110 --> 00:40:22,710 goes below that old low I'll be a short seller as a retail trader, that's what their mindset usually typically is. Well, if they're caught short right now, and
182 00:40:22,890 --> 00:40:32,070 for them to be in the market short, the counterparty to that would be someone buying their sell stuff. Okay, they're selling into the market to get short,
183 00:40:32,400 --> 00:40:43,050 smart money could be accumulating that as a long, where would they want to take that ride to about the morning high here and about these relative equal highs
184 00:40:43,050 --> 00:40:52,110 here. And what's interesting about that by side, so if they bought the sell stops, and there's willing participants that want to buy at a higher price than
185 00:40:52,110 --> 00:41:02,400 where we're at right now. What is that? That's the market efficiency paradigm, where Smart Money accumulates sells shorts that come in the marketplace their
186 00:41:02,400 --> 00:41:18,420 counterparty to and on the market reprice is to buy stops, they will sell to those buy stops. And that's offset distribution. So I would want to see a series
187 00:41:18,420 --> 00:41:24,090 of large range of closed candles in here, if that is in case what is unfolding here.
188 00:41:35,850 --> 00:41:46,290 No trade and no regrets. That's the benefit of having done this exercise for months, you learn patience, you learn to appreciate the fact that you didn't
189 00:41:46,290 --> 00:41:55,170 rush in when the market really isn't that clean, clean meaning the moves are easy to see the telegraphing, it's obvious what the market really wants to do.
190 00:41:55,950 --> 00:42:04,140 You want to focus on trading in those environments, but you can't understand what those are. Until you sit in environments like this, where it's difficult to
191 00:42:04,140 --> 00:42:12,180 read. And don't listen to these 20 year olds run around saying, oh, so easy. This is so easy, I'm doing this, have them sit here explain every individual
192 00:42:12,180 --> 00:42:22,320 candle, they think it's easy. It's not easy, I'm telling you from 30 years experience, this market right now is extremely difficult. And if you had an
193 00:42:22,320 --> 00:42:31,590 educator, whether you paid for them or you're giving your time to them, you would want them to be able to identify problem times in the marketplace where
194 00:42:32,430 --> 00:42:41,820 trading is going to be more difficult, more prone for you to fail. And if you can identify those times what may be beneficial to you to know not to be
195 00:42:41,880 --> 00:42:50,760 participating in those times. And if you're too young to appreciate that, you know that's that's a testimony to your infancy as a trader because that's one of
196 00:42:50,760 --> 00:42:53,610 the best skill sets to have is know when not to do something
197 00:42:58,620 --> 00:43:15,690 that's interesting. Dollar is not supporting that move at all in ES so that means we're probably going to see a sharp move higher on dollar if we can break
198 00:43:15,690 --> 00:43:18,540 to lower lows on es es might be leading it
199 00:43:26,340 --> 00:43:36,990 so you can look at this and say okay, well, you know, market keyed off of that 4134 and a quarter level which is an Old Navy opening gap low failed to go to
200 00:43:36,990 --> 00:43:50,310 the buy side. We went to that teal colored old fine FEMA gap here and consequent encroachment is respected that and we're down below here we failed to touch the
201 00:43:50,310 --> 00:43:58,860 fairway gap here. If it were to touch that I would have mentioned okay blocks that go down to make a lower low dollar index is still not moving to a higher
202 00:43:58,860 --> 00:43:59,220 high.
203 00:44:13,590 --> 00:44:31,230 Difficult read folks NASDAQ's broke its low of a day but we have not seen a lower low that's formed already from the 30 low on ES. I shouldn't say like
204 00:44:31,230 --> 00:44:46,050 that. We've had this wrong here. But I would like to see it go through that. And that would be an agreement with the ES and NASDAQ making lower lows than if it
205 00:44:46,050 --> 00:45:00,270 just to do that. But Dow has not supported that recent drop with NASDAQ. So we have a bit of an s&p Divergence there. Meaning that if you look at the Dow You
206 00:45:00,270 --> 00:45:17,970 can pull that up on trading view with symbol y m h 2023. And that low on the Dow is higher like it is here on es, but NASDAQ, it went lower. And that's s&p
207 00:45:17,970 --> 00:45:31,050 directions while dollar indexes failed to make a higher high meaning we can run back for buy side at that 4128.
208 00:45:47,070 --> 00:45:48,600 Very, very challenging
209 00:45:54,090 --> 00:46:02,610 for some of you that ask the question a lot, and you want to share my observations on Twitter, they tend to be the right ones. Only commenting on the
210 00:46:02,610 --> 00:46:10,800 times when the markets really in my favor to do so. Versus if I was trying to call everything because you're seeing it now when I'm in a live session. And I'm
211 00:46:10,800 --> 00:46:20,430 telling you, we're going to chop everything I'm taking and making an observation for you to watch and study. If I did that, every time I did a tweet, it wouldn't
212 00:46:20,430 --> 00:46:29,100 feel like you feel because you won't only watch me do the high probability conditions with my experience, as I don't delete anything on Twitter. And the
213 00:46:29,100 --> 00:46:37,290 things I tweet. And I had somebody say, Well, it's because you have so many followers now. And when you say something, everybody's dogpiling on it and
214 00:46:37,290 --> 00:46:44,190 moving as well as facetiously saying, Oh, you're dogpiling on it. Now, I'm not going to move the market because I said something, that's not going to happen,
215 00:46:44,190 --> 00:46:50,400 the market is gonna move because it's gonna, it's gonna move. And if that was the case, then why isn't the market moving? When I said it live here, when I've
216 00:46:50,400 --> 00:46:58,020 identified it as a difficult market, and we're in Chomp, versus when I'm on tweets, I'm tweeting specific things, watch this, it's going to go here, when it
217 00:46:58,020 --> 00:47:08,940 delivers like that, it's because I've only selected to talk about it publicly on Twitter, when it favors my side of the trade, when I know I'm probably the
218 00:47:08,940 --> 00:47:21,150 highest degree of probabilities on my favor, then and only them I'll commit. That's experience. Here and tape reading, I'm trying to give you a minute by
219 00:47:21,150 --> 00:47:32,730 minute one candle at a time view. And also reminding you that these are conditions that are this it's chop, the moves are not clean, they're not very
220 00:47:32,730 --> 00:47:40,260 specific and precise, where you can go in and say, here's a straight here's a setup, here's a stop and here's the multiplier for potential profits. So we have
221 00:47:40,260 --> 00:47:54,000 that lower low now when es we have it in Dow everything's move lower and now we should see dollar. Confirm that with our higher high hasn't done it yet. And
222 00:47:54,000 --> 00:48:01,890 you're probably asking yourself, you know why you keep doing this so I keep mentioning dollar because that is how you ferret out false breaks like we've
223 00:48:01,890 --> 00:48:13,650 made a lower low here. This still could be you know, lowering traders in as a run lower just to send it back up to the buy side. And we have follow through on
224 00:48:13,650 --> 00:48:23,550 a es minute move lower like that, even though we've had NASDAQ Dow and es now agree with lower lows. There's no s&p divergence between these two lows here. If
225 00:48:23,550 --> 00:48:37,650 you look at the relationship between NASDAQ which is n q, H 20231 TradingView. And the Dow which is a y m h 2023. And an ES which is es H 2023. So that means
226 00:48:37,860 --> 00:48:48,690 even though we went lower here s&p Is not the be all end all it's just a qualifier it confirms something it confirmed that lower low but we're still
227 00:48:48,690 --> 00:48:56,700 referring to the dollar index the dollar index did not make a higher high I want to see that because it hasn't done that that makes this potentially a false
228 00:48:56,700 --> 00:49:05,160 breakout and why I keep bringing up that buy side is because they could be now making a ripping run up into that 4136 level
229 00:49:10,260 --> 00:49:20,250 and if I weren't making the market I would rip it up air in short fashion I wouldn't give anybody opportunity to identify it and just roll it over top of
230 00:49:20,250 --> 00:49:28,620 anyone short I would smash through this old Faraday get like it wasn't there
231 00:49:34,680 --> 00:49:38,700 I'm going to run it right on up in through 205 minute Vega.
232 00:49:52,170 --> 00:50:03,510 Yes, he dollars coming off its recent short term high. It's not trying to make a higher high that is not market symmetry. Market Cemetery's where you have
233 00:50:03,540 --> 00:50:14,220 everything in agreement, you want to have everything moving in tandem with you. If it's a risk off scenario, that means that foreign currencies and equities
234 00:50:14,520 --> 00:50:22,320 will be moving lower and dollar going higher. If dollar is going lower, that's risk going. You want to see Forex moving higher, and equities moving higher,
235 00:50:23,070 --> 00:50:30,240 while dollar makes lower lows, and that's the symmetry you're looking for. You're constantly measuring market breadth like that. That's the reason why I
236 00:50:30,240 --> 00:50:39,180 have all these monitors, because I'm looking at other assets as inter market relationships, and market inter market analysis where I'm not relying on one
237 00:50:39,210 --> 00:50:53,130 individual asset to determine whether or not risk on risk off is in play, meaning risk off, dollars going higher. It's easy to find short sells for index
238 00:50:53,130 --> 00:51:01,680 futures, and forex in foreign currencies in those conditions. And you want to learn to think that way when you're trading, if you don't do that now, and
239 00:51:01,680 --> 00:51:09,240 you've had problems with understanding bias, understanding, high probability conditions and framework, it's because you're not doing what I'm teaching you
240 00:51:09,240 --> 00:51:20,370 here. And you hear me referring to it every time I do a live stream, because it's important. If it wasn't important, I wouldn't bring it up. But it answers a
241 00:51:20,370 --> 00:51:28,560 lot of the questions you see repeatedly asked of me. How do I know? How do I trust? When When do I not trust something? When do I think it might be a fake
242 00:51:28,560 --> 00:51:42,030 run? It's based on balancing out the delivery of multiple instruments, not just one, even though I'm especially fond of s&p, and I'm teaching you to trade one
243 00:51:42,030 --> 00:51:51,480 market and study one market, which is this one here. You're going to refer to other ones to support or negate the ideas that you're looking at in price. You
244 00:51:51,480 --> 00:51:59,790 want to see it really smashed through that little teal favor I got it wants, you want to see it go through constant encouragement, which is the 4128 level, rip
245 00:51:59,790 --> 00:52:10,260 right through it. And then preferably not even come back and touch the high end does it support? If it did that, that would be my indication, and a signature
246 00:52:10,260 --> 00:52:13,290 saying that Smart Money wants that 4136.
247 00:52:22,260 --> 00:52:31,470 Let me play devil's advocate for a moment, let's assume that we had a bias that was bullish this morning, everything being equal, saying that dollar se was
248 00:52:31,980 --> 00:52:40,650 predisposed to go lower, and it was delivering lower prices. And we saw this run below the sell side liquidity pool that was identified here, we went through it,
249 00:52:41,010 --> 00:52:49,080 as it did that I would have went long and I would be adding if it went back down into this fair Vega. And then I would not add any more, I would wait for it to
250 00:52:49,080 --> 00:53:04,260 just rip through to 4136. But because we don't have that condition, we have to observe everything in small incremental pieces. Okay, so we're delivering
251 00:53:04,260 --> 00:53:18,210 through 4128 Want to see this candle come all the way through to top into that fair value that's preferential dollars weakening here. That's going to provide
252 00:53:18,300 --> 00:53:27,030 like gas on a fire for this rally on ES. And where would it run to? We're we're in the fair value gap here. But it's not something that's all that concerning,
253 00:53:27,060 --> 00:53:34,560 because we've been here before. This one here. This whole fair value gap is not all that terribly concerning either. It should cut through that like a knife
254 00:53:34,560 --> 00:53:45,840 through butter hot knife through butter and go right for this area here where there's real orders. What kind of orders by side? Why would it want to go there?
255 00:53:45,990 --> 00:53:55,650 twofold. Number one to kill the individuals that are short that use as a stop loss and to utilize their stop loss as a means to offset distribute the lungs
256 00:53:55,650 --> 00:53:57,330 that accumulate down here with the sell side
257 00:54:04,710 --> 00:54:16,530 and it can animate as far as up into here and if it spreads its wings we got that old 4140 25 level which is consequent curtailment of the previous new week
258 00:54:16,530 --> 00:54:30,600 opening gap that's how we layer and make strategies around open float of a float is by side here by side here by side here.
259 00:54:49,469 --> 00:54:59,009 To pupil will notice that that 1010 level macro coincides with that cell cycle quadruple being engaged
260 00:55:09,360 --> 00:55:16,980 Okay, now here's why you see facetiously asked in my examples, if you were short Would you feel safe with your stop at 4136?
261 00:55:40,680 --> 00:55:45,360 Watch the volume imbalance in here it's keying off of that right now potential potential support
262 00:56:13,469 --> 00:56:26,999 think they're nervous now at 4041 36 stops on their shorts mark is getting ready to take a walk right up there strata chuck a lot of.
263 00:57:11,700 --> 00:57:15,390 Dollars really come off its entry high here
264 00:57:38,520 --> 00:57:49,350 looking at that vowel chart, it just reminds me how much I'm so thankful I never tried it. It's so ugly of a market. It's just so spotty and just I don't care
265 00:57:49,350 --> 00:58:04,500 for it. But key points, it confirms or negates key turns in the marketplace like I use it for SMT, like I mentioned earlier. But you can still see turns in the
266 00:58:04,500 --> 00:58:16,410 marketplace. When you're looking for s&p studies. Like you'll understand that I teach the index s&p Divergence which is typical Dow Theory lower low in Dow
267 00:58:16,410 --> 00:58:26,130 should be lower low and ES and lower low in NASDAQ. That's understand that's understandable that's obvious thing and that that's normal Dow Theory. But when
268 00:58:26,130 --> 00:58:37,530 I look at like the dollar index, even though we may have lower lows, like we've met these lower lows here in ES you see those also in NASDAQ you see them also
269 00:58:37,530 --> 00:58:48,300 in the Dow but you can still get these rips higher like this going the other direction. And the way you find them is by looking at them with the dollar index
270 00:58:48,480 --> 00:59:00,900 and the dollar index did not make a higher high as you would expect to see that when they made their lower lows respectively. So that in itself is still SMT so
271 00:59:02,700 --> 00:59:05,220 you're trying to teach my stuff make sure you teach it right
272 00:59:25,710 --> 00:59:40,200 alright, so we have this candle here. Why am I picking up this candle here? It's the candle with the highest up close right here. And it's the up close candle
273 00:59:40,200 --> 00:59:52,530 prior to the drop lower below this low here. So I'm watching my eyes right on here. I'm going to take this rectangle off. I'm gonna take this one and put it
274 00:59:52,530 --> 00:59:53,100 right on here.
275 01:00:00,780 --> 01:00:10,650 I'm studying how price respects or like disrespects this entire range here, it can go all the way down to the low of that, it's better that it doesn't, it
276 01:00:10,650 --> 01:00:24,900 would be better if it goes just to this fair ragga because this is a potential bullish breaker. So you refine that with this range that shows a fair value got
277 01:00:28,200 --> 01:00:31,980 you'd want to see accumulate a long position in here if it was going to go up the divisor.
278 01:00:44,730 --> 01:00:45,840 Spell on case you heard
279 01:00:52,110 --> 01:00:57,120 that's probably not the best contrast is you see if I can get something better.
280 01:01:05,550 --> 01:01:19,110 To look better. So in this case, like if we're assuming that the buy side is going to be targeted, and we've dropped back down here, I'm looking at what was
281 01:01:19,110 --> 01:01:31,350 done. Where's the damage done the wicks. So your eye goes to what? Down here? What did they do down here, they ran sell side, then they ripped it higher. Took
282 01:01:31,350 --> 01:01:42,300 it above this short term high here went above failed to make our run into this high and this buyside. So that is lingering, that's a potential still there,
283 01:01:42,780 --> 01:01:54,180 retail will see this drop off as okay, it's gonna keep going lower now. But I'm identifying this candle here as not just a simple resistance, turn support
284 01:01:54,180 --> 01:02:01,920 because it broke through it. I'm looking at that entire candles range, then extending it over to the right. And inside that range. I'm looking for any
285 01:02:01,920 --> 01:02:10,950 inefficiencies, fair value, gap, volume imbalance, something to that effect. Because we have that entire range of that candle to be considered as a bullish
286 01:02:10,950 --> 01:02:19,920 breaker. We have to allow for all these wicks the shadows below the candles, they can step all the way down to the low of that. But the bulk of the candles
287 01:02:19,950 --> 01:02:27,750 are really telling you the story. And what is it showing you so far, it could fail here, don't let me pump you up into thinking it's a buy. I'm just telling
288 01:02:27,750 --> 01:02:35,490 you look at the candles, how the candles themselves, the bodies are staying inside that fair Vega. The wicks can go outside that all the way down to the low
289 01:02:35,490 --> 01:02:42,420 end of that fair bit. I'm sorry, that bullish breaker, but we would want to see the bodies stay inside this range and start to expand higher.
290 01:02:53,489 --> 01:03:04,319 I would still favor the upside because think about what we've seen so far since 830. This low has been taken here, this low has been taken here. We've only had
291 01:03:04,319 --> 01:03:15,059 one saw one by side run here. So this one didn't take out that high. And this one didn't take out that high. So in my mind, it's a lot, there's a lot more
292 01:03:15,509 --> 01:03:28,199 interest that's been not tapped into yet on the buy side. So if we're going to be chopping and range bound, it makes perfect sense to me to see it and want to
293 01:03:28,199 --> 01:03:36,119 eventually gravitate to that 4134 and a quarter and higher or 4136 and a half.
294 01:03:56,670 --> 01:04:09,150 Running out of time, I only have one minute and 30 seconds and I have to escape. And I apologize, but it's one of those real world things, folks. So I'll say
295 01:04:09,150 --> 01:04:25,650 this in the last moments of our live stream here, I would still focus on that buyside as a primary area to monitor price today. If it fails to go to it today.
296 01:04:27,300 --> 01:04:38,490 before lunchtime, I would treat that as an afternoon objective. Looking for a move between 130 and four o'clock. Apart from that I would not be interested in
297 01:04:38,490 --> 01:04:48,480 anything right here. Because we've already probed the low end multiple times. I want to see before I would want to go lower. I want to see at least clean up
298 01:04:48,480 --> 01:05:01,200 that area at 4135 50. That's my personal preference. And hopefully you guys got something out of this. I know it wasn't a whole lot of excitement. But there's
299 01:05:01,200 --> 01:05:11,820 rules to this thing and things I'm looking for AR, there's a lot that repeats. And over time with me daily, weekly, in months, you'll see that there is
300 01:05:11,850 --> 01:05:22,230 certainly something there that it's going to communicate differently than your classical retail logic. I think that's gonna be it. So if there's anything that
301 01:05:22,230 --> 01:05:29,250 takes place, obviously, you'll have to permit me the benefit of hindsight because I will not be in front of the charts the rest of the day. So I'll try to
302 01:05:29,250 --> 01:05:39,060 do my best to give you some whatever review later in the afternoon, and I'll review what I did this morning as well on Twitter until I talk to you then be
303 01:05:39,060 --> 01:05:39,420 safe.