ICT YT - 2023-02-14 - ES Live Commentary CPI Release - February 14 2023
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-02-15 06:22
Outline
03:15 - Today’s Chart:.
08:27 - The 15-minute timeframe.
14:51 - What is the fair value gap? -.
22:10 - What are you looking for in this candle?
30:04 - New Week Opening Gaps.
36:12 - Daily chart of the US Dollar.
41:22 - What’s likely to happen on this day.
49:37 - What’s causing the delay in the market.
54:09 - Smt - Smart Money Tool.
01:00:05 - You’re never wrong when you say, “Try to preserve capital.”.
01:05:59 - How to use this chart to find setups.
01:12:36 - Do we run aggressively into this area?
01:17:36 - How the process framing a narrative leads to a bias for the long side.
01:22:05 - If it accelerates on the downside you want to take a look at the fair value and gap.
01:30:24 - Looking at the first 30 minutes to see if there’s any interest to reprice.
01:36:03 - What’s next for the dollar index?
01:41:53 - You can’t learn it from a book. You have to see it.
Transcription
| 1 | 00:03:15,540 --> 00:03:30,630 | ICT: Good morning folks. People will be so kind of you that are following along on twitter if you're able to hear me and audio is good, give me a five by five |
| 2 | 00:03:31,770 --> 00:03:40,560 | tweet to me with that. You guys can hear and see the chart good if you have nowhere to to get this |
| 3 | 00:05:09,719 --> 00:05:21,329 | Alright, so my sound one more check on sound, please go to doubt have it set correctly give me a five by five on sound |
| 4 | 00:05:49,560 --> 00:06:03,180 | Thank you, Blake. All right. Well, good morning. Good morning. Good morning. Good morning. Today we are entering the dark waters of the CPI numbers. Let me |
| 5 | 00:06:03,180 --> 00:06:15,060 | preface it by saying if you follow anything I say in tweets, and use that as a catalyst for getting into a live trade today is certainly not one of those days. |
| 6 | 00:06:16,470 --> 00:06:34,860 | In fact, I'm going to try to keep my commentary very, very, very ambiguous. Just because I don't want to have anybody take any kind of term usage, reference, |
| 7 | 00:06:35,070 --> 00:06:44,100 | opinion, comments or remarks, anything like that, that comes out of my mouth this morning, as it relates to the marketplace, it should not be viewed as an |
| 8 | 00:06:44,100 --> 00:06:54,870 | invitation to follow along because I absolutely do not know what CPI is going to do. Okay, I don't know. So historically, I'm in incorrect with it. And you've |
| 9 | 00:06:54,870 --> 00:07:05,460 | seen episodes of that past few months or so over 2022. So that should be a, a reason for you not to want to be |
| 10 | 00:07:11,130 --> 00:07:24,690 | involved in this move. So I want to go real quickly into a brief review. And then we'll sit back and we'll just watch what's likely to unfold for CPI. The |
| 11 | 00:07:24,690 --> 00:07:37,500 | benefit of this today is really for those that are new, not to trade this day, at least not traded before the CPI number that comes out in 29 minutes or so. So |
| 12 | 00:07:37,500 --> 00:07:48,570 | let me go over to the chart here. If you look at the E Mini s&p chart I have here it's an hourly chart. Usually CPI can go as far as 50 to 100 handles on |
| 13 | 00:07:49,680 --> 00:08:05,760 | Yes, in recent months when it's been delivered. The boss illiquidity that I think is still within target, even for one day, is that 42 08 50 level, assuming |
| 14 | 00:08:05,760 --> 00:08:17,760 | they want to ramp it up there, blow that out. I'm not saying I know that for certain. I don't know that. For the 406 0.75 sellside liquidity down here. We're |
| 15 | 00:08:17,760 --> 00:08:30,390 | in striking distance of the buy side here. So I'm watching the hit that first ahead of the CPI number. And I'm interested to see if that's what it does, then |
| 16 | 00:08:30,390 --> 00:08:41,910 | does it rip it down into deeper discounts? Like I said, it's it's a gamble. It's not worth trading it because it's very unforgiving. As you'll most likely see |
| 17 | 00:08:41,910 --> 00:08:53,580 | here, it's usually like a one way, boom. And if you're if you're wrong, you're really regretting it. But if you're right, it feels like you're a rockstar. And |
| 18 | 00:08:53,580 --> 00:09:11,400 | that's unfortunate, because that's not skill. That's blind guess one second. So I want to show you real quick, a little bit of what took place yesterday we look |
| 19 | 00:09:11,400 --> 00:09:30,960 | at the 15 minute timeframe. So I talked about yesterday how in the beginning of the morning session, I wanted to see a clear obvious run on either a premium |
| 20 | 00:09:30,960 --> 00:09:39,180 | array or a discount array. And I mentioned before we started trading over the weekend on Sunday, I mentioned that if we get a gap higher when something's gap |
| 21 | 00:09:39,180 --> 00:09:50,670 | opening, should there be one? Trading back down into Friday's close would be something I would expect and and see if we can go higher up into these |
| 22 | 00:09:50,670 --> 00:10:04,410 | imbalances here. And I mentioned on Monday that I liked this one. I gave that to you before we traded up into it. This was the The new week opening gap for the |
| 23 | 00:10:04,830 --> 00:10:17,370 | EAS for this week. And you can see already we've had a real nice response to consequent gross rent, which is the midpoint. And real quick, new opening gap or |
| 24 | 00:10:17,400 --> 00:10:30,660 | usually abbreviated as NW, oh, gee, a new week opening gap is the Sunday opening price the very first tick that Sunday prints, you want to have a line across |
| 25 | 00:10:30,660 --> 00:10:39,750 | that across the entire week of trading and the previous week's Friday's closing price, you want to note that and then split the range in half, that's constant |
| 26 | 00:10:39,750 --> 00:10:53,580 | encouragement here. And then it'll act as real support resistance throughout the week. It's also important understand that it will be a tool to help you |
| 27 | 00:10:53,580 --> 00:11:04,440 | understand if we're in a consolidation phase in the marketplace. Because if it keeps gravitating back to it, you need to adjust your trading to allow for it |
| 28 | 00:11:04,440 --> 00:11:14,670 | short term, surgical strikes, new scouts try not to think about moves that are trending. Okay, because trending markets move away from this level rather |
| 29 | 00:11:14,760 --> 00:11:24,660 | aggressively and tend not to return back to it. We see that signature here today. You can see how we went above it came back down consequent encouragement |
| 30 | 00:11:24,660 --> 00:11:32,280 | we'll take a look at that in the lower timeframes with a little bit more detail in a moment, but we wrapped up into that 15 minute timeframe theory you got, |
| 31 | 00:11:32,520 --> 00:11:43,950 | which is this candle right here. I mentioned this on the livestream yesterday. So February 9 2023, to 1230 bearish candle. So we're framing the fear of a gap |
| 32 | 00:11:43,950 --> 00:11:59,730 | on the high of this candle and the low of this candle here. Okay. And we have buyside here, nothing in here is really imbalanced have a smaller liquidity pool |
| 33 | 00:11:59,730 --> 00:12:07,500 | that would be above this high, but they're gonna run that they're gonna run this. Okay, so we'll see what we got, we'll get with that. Dropping down into |
| 34 | 00:12:09,570 --> 00:12:20,910 | five minute chart you can see how it came back down and consequent caution here at 9:35am. Right through and went back up into the fair value got on the 15 |
| 35 | 00:12:20,910 --> 00:12:33,990 | minute time frame, I did a gradient of have that the attainment of a gap, meaning the first 25% 50% Where you were living I'm sorry, equilibrium, which is |
| 36 | 00:12:33,990 --> 00:12:43,110 | really technically consequent encroachment of any imbalance or gap. And then 75% of that, and then the high you can see how we're seeing beautiful responses off |
| 37 | 00:12:43,110 --> 00:12:51,120 | of that. That's what you would expect from retail support resistance but it doesn't deliver it it's too subjective. Which is the reason why someone knows |
| 38 | 00:12:51,120 --> 00:12:59,940 | that upsets a lot of you that are purists that like to use that stuff but there's a better way of doing it and hopefully you guys can least see that drop |
| 39 | 00:12:59,940 --> 00:13:02,130 | down to a one minute chart get right into it and then |
| 40 | 00:13:07,770 --> 00:13:10,920 | sit back and watch the carnage unfold at 830 |
| 41 | 00:13:17,070 --> 00:13:26,340 | All right, so here is 1130 I was not with you all that time but notice you have a bison amount so it's on efficiency here to back down into the upper cordon |
| 42 | 00:13:26,610 --> 00:13:37,980 | upper quarter of that 15 minute fair value got the responses lovely went up into the imbalance here which I mentioned I think I failed to show you on it |
| 43 | 00:13:37,980 --> 00:13:48,300 | timeframe where that came from hold on small little gap in here to these candles high in that candles low |
| 44 | 00:14:36,900 --> 00:14:48,990 | alright so the audio is going to be a little bit different now I just lost the the connection it wasn't giving me any kind of feedback on my little bar here |
| 45 | 00:14:49,020 --> 00:14:57,180 | usually says I'm talking. So I apologize. The sound is going to be a little bit different. Don't complain because I can't do anything about it. It's a stupid |
| 46 | 00:14:57,180 --> 00:15:07,110 | headset I purchased. It's brand new. It's not cheap. Good just for whatever reason doesn't work. So this little gap in here, I'm going to change the color |
| 47 | 00:15:07,110 --> 00:15:23,730 | of it to this. So that way you can see what this is we go over to the right here. So we were looking for this to reach up into yesterday live, we watched |
| 48 | 00:15:23,730 --> 00:15:34,020 | that occur, and then reached into consequent encroachment. And as it hit the top end of the fair value gap, I mentioned that it could probably reach up into that |
| 49 | 00:15:34,020 --> 00:15:44,580 | 15 fairway gap. It actually went there one little bit further than retrace all the way back down to the upper quadrant of that 15 minute figure Vega, which is |
| 50 | 00:15:44,580 --> 00:15:54,810 | this shaded area here. So what I've done is I've measured the range from the high to the low that fits into Vega, you're familiar with the low in the high |
| 51 | 00:15:54,840 --> 00:16:02,670 | end in the middle is consequent encouragement, because any gap or inefficiency, that midpoint is going to be highly sensitive. But if you're bullish, you want |
| 52 | 00:16:02,670 --> 00:16:11,580 | to see it not returned back to. Okay. And this is where your notes, just like when you see me talk about how I want to see the fair value gap not filled in, I |
| 53 | 00:16:11,580 --> 00:16:22,020 | want to see it remain open. Preferably if the market can trade back down into the upper portion of that fear of I get when you're bullish how far but not |
| 54 | 00:16:22,020 --> 00:16:30,720 | touch to consequent coachmen, the upper quadrant, you can see it hits it here, hits it here and then rallies through and we're going to take a closer look at |
| 55 | 00:16:30,720 --> 00:16:38,400 | that with the last hour of trading. Because I mentioned that that would possibly be a drop in liquidity here for the pm session using the like the last hour |
| 56 | 00:16:38,400 --> 00:16:50,160 | trading. And I'll give you some more detail about how to use that and going forward. Use the things I'm going to teach you here that tend to repeat. Think |
| 57 | 00:16:50,160 --> 00:16:57,900 | that's about all we'll have time for because then we got to go over to the live for CPI. So we're gonna drop down to a one minute chart. |
| 58 | 00:17:03,600 --> 00:17:20,220 | And I know there's more efficient ways to do this, but I'm not a trading View All Star. So here is what we were looking at yesterday. shift in market |
| 59 | 00:17:20,220 --> 00:17:28,650 | structure, the fair value gap here we traded identity I said I want to see it respect that rally through and take out the buy side here. I wanted 4118 We got |
| 60 | 00:17:28,650 --> 00:17:35,490 | that 141 21 and a half, we got that then I said we'd see the 15 minutes we have a gap here consequent encroachment. And I would be done if it went up to here. |
| 61 | 00:17:35,790 --> 00:17:45,120 | That time right here. I said screenshot your chart, annotate everything you see. We talked about the fairway get that shade of blue here and how I wanted to see |
| 62 | 00:17:45,150 --> 00:17:56,010 | this fair pay gap only offer a small little move back into I did not want to see a completely closing I want to see this once they open because it would act as a |
| 63 | 00:17:56,010 --> 00:18:03,540 | breakaway gap. You can see the has provided that here. If you haven't watched the live stream from yesterday, and obviously you're missing out on seeing it |
| 64 | 00:18:03,540 --> 00:18:13,860 | live. It's not anything I can edit and there was a lot of people here watching it. So I want to take you into the last hour trading. |
| 65 | 00:18:21,900 --> 00:18:36,930 | And revisit that final hour macro. And a macro is a short little list of instructions or directives for an algorithm to run. And they tend to repeat. The |
| 66 | 00:18:36,930 --> 00:18:49,020 | only time that you're going to see them not work is when we have already moved a lot in either the middle part of the day, or right after lunch. It does whatever |
| 67 | 00:18:49,020 --> 00:18:57,720 | it was supposed to do in terms of running for liquidity. And then the last hour can be just listless choppy, not really doing too much at all. But I want to |
| 68 | 00:18:57,720 --> 00:19:07,620 | show you how the algorithm uses certain elements of price action and trigger points for how to determine standard deviations within a small micro market |
| 69 | 00:19:07,620 --> 00:19:17,640 | structure. And that's a whole lot. Okay, but I promise it's a lot easier when you see disgust. Here is the upper quadrant level of that 50 Min fear Vega. |
| 70 | 00:19:18,390 --> 00:19:26,790 | Okay, remember, here's a 50 minute view of a gap from the ninth of February. Just talked about before we went down to the lower timeframes. This is the |
| 71 | 00:19:26,790 --> 00:19:36,990 | midpoint of that. Okay, this is the lower quarter of it. This is the low. This is the high end. This is the upper 25% of that range. So if you would take a |
| 72 | 00:19:36,990 --> 00:19:44,100 | fair of a gap and split it into four pieces equally. If you're bullish, you really don't want to see it trade down the consequent approachment but you're |
| 73 | 00:19:44,100 --> 00:19:53,490 | allowing it to happen that your analysis allows for that. If it's really bullish, and it comes down touches this level here. You want to see that then |
| 74 | 00:19:53,490 --> 00:20:04,800 | support price. Do we see that here? And it rallies away? Yes, we do. What Is this short term hungry here, if I move this out of the way, just gonna move it |
| 75 | 00:20:04,800 --> 00:20:18,060 | like that, this short term high, when price runs through it rate there that Campbell's high comes in at 4137 and a half, this high here comes in at 4137 and |
| 76 | 00:20:18,060 --> 00:20:30,420 | a half that candle when it touches it just like that, you're watching the sees the next time it trades one tick rate above that price, you now have a bullish |
| 77 | 00:20:30,540 --> 00:20:41,520 | market structure shift for the last final hour of trading, we get that rate there. Notice the candle didn't close there, it went above it, and came down |
| 78 | 00:20:41,520 --> 00:20:57,060 | here. Look back from that candles high all the way to the low. Zoom out a little bit. So you can see. What do you see between this low, and I'm gonna make sure I |
| 79 | 00:20:57,060 --> 00:21:03,330 | get this done between this high and this high here in that low |
| 80 | 00:21:11,010 --> 00:21:20,760 | while you have to refer the two down close candles here, that's a bullish order block. It's one block of price action. Here for that is essentially about right |
| 81 | 00:21:20,760 --> 00:21:39,870 | in here. When this candle pierced this high here, looking back, we have this, which is what volume imbalance. Then we have a fair value gap right there. Do we |
| 82 | 00:21:39,870 --> 00:21:45,630 | want to see it traded back down inside this fair value gap once it's left it because we hit this one here? Why would we want to see it come back down and |
| 83 | 00:21:45,630 --> 00:21:55,080 | touch it? Because it's already done? So here? Would it indicate that it's extremely bullish if it went back down there again? No. So we want to use a |
| 84 | 00:21:55,440 --> 00:22:05,550 | array, a specific element in price action that we would be more sensitive to see buying occur. Not that the buying is occurring here to send it higher is that |
| 85 | 00:22:05,550 --> 00:22:18,300 | it's repricing back down to this candles close. That comes in at 4135 even. And the difference between that and the candles opening next is 4135 and a quarter. |
| 86 | 00:22:18,300 --> 00:22:34,920 | So we're only talking about one quarter of one tick in difference in terms of price. So we have this volume imbalance. This would be your macro what time is |
| 87 | 00:22:34,920 --> 00:22:49,350 | this candle touching the final balance 318. And this one before it is 317. So what time is that? Between 315 and 345? That's your final our macro. That's |
| 88 | 00:22:49,350 --> 00:22:56,640 | exactly what I told you. And you're expecting what price to run through what by side. We're bullish, it can go back to this level here again, which is what I |
| 89 | 00:22:56,640 --> 00:23:09,930 | gave you before we went there yesterday morning. So what's above here by sight. So besides resting there, I'm going to take these dividers off real quick, |
| 90 | 00:23:10,140 --> 00:23:21,180 | because I only have a couple minutes left and I want to get through it and you can see. So this run from this high down. And we're off teaching with market |
| 91 | 00:23:21,180 --> 00:23:33,840 | structure, institutional market structure and using it and coupling it with what liquidity pools if we use this drop down. This is a trigger point for running |
| 92 | 00:23:33,840 --> 00:23:44,100 | standard deviation. Meaning your fed you anchor till up to this short term high why that one? What's the high prior to the retracement back down to an area |
| 93 | 00:23:44,100 --> 00:23:52,890 | where we would expect price to rally. Your sand deviations are noted here. Here's your buy side. So which one are you looking for? It has to go above it. |
| 94 | 00:23:53,070 --> 00:24:06,360 | So which one are you looking for? What are you 4150 in it even so 4150 even. And the final candle here at 1600 which is four o'clock. You want to have your |
| 95 | 00:24:06,390 --> 00:24:19,470 | position squared by then what's the high of that candle 41 50.25 At one tick I taught you over the weekend that the market likes to remove Mohawks little seat |
| 96 | 00:24:19,470 --> 00:24:30,960 | you the ones that have a seamless delivery. It will not always stop right at the tick. Why won't you have the bid in the ask? You have to worry about much like |
| 97 | 00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:43,500 | you saw me fall victim to last week when I was trying to do a finesse and exit 41 Zero I forgot what the price is now thought I was off by one tick. It printed |
| 98 | 00:24:43,500 --> 00:24:54,030 | the price I wanted it but it didn't give me the exit and came back and wrote all my stuff on that final single contract. This run from here to here. Okay, you |
| 99 | 00:24:54,030 --> 00:25:05,790 | have to couple that with narrative and you have to couple it with liquidity for instance like whatever here Have you ever old low, and if it's up here taken by |
| 100 | 00:25:05,790 --> 00:25:16,560 | side with this run, and it's dropping down, remember that 15 Min affair Vega, we took out what here, a short term low, meaning what, we have a shift in market |
| 101 | 00:25:16,560 --> 00:25:24,210 | structure that's bearish counter trend. So this is what I mean by traders that use my information. You can be buying and selling in the same date where one |
| 102 | 00:25:24,210 --> 00:25:32,640 | trader may be doing primarily one direction within a daily bias, but you can trade without a bias if you understand what's liquidities likely to provide in |
| 103 | 00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:41,040 | terms of the net draw, small little fair value gap, it trades up into that delivers below that short term low. Now this may be a shift in market structure |
| 104 | 00:25:41,040 --> 00:25:49,410 | for some of you. And this one may not be because you're trading intraday volatility, the market returns back up into what consequent encouragement on |
| 105 | 00:25:49,410 --> 00:25:57,570 | that 15 minute fair value gap, which is that shaded area here in route change the color, then it rolls down and affects the sell side here. Using the same |
| 106 | 00:25:57,570 --> 00:26:11,580 | premise here, this is a trigger to start running your standard deviations from the high to that low. Here's your liquidity, or sell side liquidity. If you want |
| 107 | 00:26:11,580 --> 00:26:24,420 | to aim for something below that. What's below it, we have the old fair value gap down here. Standard deviation from high to low here, below that low, we have |
| 108 | 00:26:24,420 --> 00:26:32,850 | this one hits it wonderfully. This one here is inside of the high end of the fair value gap that shaded as 15 minute timeframe. And as some of you are |
| 109 | 00:26:32,850 --> 00:26:42,180 | probably thinking, Okay, this is getting really complicated. Trust me, it's it's fine. It's not terribly complicated this you get to see more examples of it. And |
| 110 | 00:26:42,180 --> 00:26:50,460 | then here is consequent parchment, I'm sorry, the upper quarter and its consequent encroachment, you don't want to see if you're bullish, you don't want |
| 111 | 00:26:50,460 --> 00:26:58,170 | to see that level hit, you want to see it respected an upper portion of it, because it'll act like what institutional report entry drill, where it just goes |
| 112 | 00:26:58,170 --> 00:27:07,740 | into an imbalance or fair value debt and then runs higher. While you have a short term low here, it's thought for you that quarter point, the upper quarter |
| 113 | 00:27:07,740 --> 00:27:17,430 | of the fair pay gap that's shaded in gray here. Remember, there's four levels to the low, first quarter midpoint was constant encouragement, 75% of the range, |
| 114 | 00:27:17,580 --> 00:27:30,720 | and then the high. So if it's going to go down to that quadrant here, which it does here, how far can it go? Using that reference point here, which is a |
| 115 | 00:27:30,750 --> 00:27:40,980 | trigger for standard deviations, the algorithm can reach as far as 4130 and a half. That would be what allowing for this level of be hit. But also for anybody |
| 116 | 00:27:40,980 --> 00:27:50,880 | that knows the information I'm sharing with you. Their orders will fill because of the difference between the bid and the ask. So 4130 and a half. That could be |
| 117 | 00:27:50,910 --> 00:28:02,610 | a target where it reaches for what's the low over here? What do you want 30 and a half. And then you get the run here, the shift in market structure on that |
| 118 | 00:28:02,610 --> 00:28:12,720 | candle volume imbalance to the tick runs up to the fair value gap I mentioned that would be the afternoon, hourly, last hour trading objective. But I wasn't |
| 119 | 00:28:12,720 --> 00:28:20,190 | in front of the charts to be able to know about this high. But you know, the procedure and protocol is biocides resting above that. And then it runs right |
| 120 | 00:28:20,190 --> 00:28:33,900 | into it there. The last minute of the last hour of trading right there hammers at 4150 4115 A quarter. So that allows the that limit order you would |
| 121 | 00:28:33,960 --> 00:28:46,200 | potentially have there, it would allow you to book your exit there. So anyway, that's a little bit of advanced topics. just to whet your appetite because I |
| 122 | 00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:56,760 | can't spend the rest of the afternoon with you. I'm only gonna be here for a short period for the CPI number and 15 minutes after the opening. It's my |
| 123 | 00:28:56,790 --> 00:29:08,550 | wedding anniversary today. It's Valentine's Day and it's my 18 year olds birthday. So it's a whole lot. And we couldn't get back to home last night after |
| 124 | 00:29:08,550 --> 00:29:22,500 | his win and soccer but you all call it football across the pond. His team is a club team and it's he's had several of his members on that team be scouted and |
| 125 | 00:29:22,500 --> 00:29:33,990 | recruited. Some of them are going to South America. Some of them are going to England to be used in teams over there. And it's just wonderful to see some of |
| 126 | 00:29:33,990 --> 00:29:41,160 | them doing so when my son isn't that great. So I don't want you to think and I'm saying my son's gonna be a pro he's not he's he's not that good and he's maybe |
| 127 | 00:29:41,160 --> 00:29:46,290 | in the lower quarter of the year the skill sets it's on his team but his team members are phenomenal |
| 128 | 00:29:51,870 --> 00:30:08,070 | Alright, so we are looking at a woman charts just stick it up to a five the discussion about the new week opening gap. I'll include this here as well. If |
| 129 | 00:30:08,070 --> 00:30:18,540 | you look at the range from this line here, this one here and here, this is the previous week, new week opening gap. This is the one that we're trading off of |
| 130 | 00:30:18,570 --> 00:30:29,820 | that started this week at Sunday's opening. Okay. So Sunday's opening gap is here, in here. So nice first, price print was here, Friday's close with here, |
| 131 | 00:30:29,850 --> 00:30:40,380 | split the range in half. That's what we're seeing. It trades from and remember what I taught you. New weak opening gaps and New Day opening gaps, they are real |
| 132 | 00:30:40,470 --> 00:30:50,190 | fair value. They are real, they're real points of interest for the market that want to gravitate back to. And the market is designed in code to do this because |
| 133 | 00:30:50,190 --> 00:30:58,650 | it allows the sentiment and interest on large fund level for them to want to bring their orders into the marketplace, which is really the primary driver for |
| 134 | 00:30:58,650 --> 00:31:05,910 | where the market drives against liquidity. It's not retail traders. But you all learn the same things that these large funds use what's the buy side |
| 135 | 00:31:13,110 --> 00:31:29,580 | is watching something with the German 30 relative to another trigger, I like listening to Tom Hougaard. So on Friday outside the |
| 136 | 00:31:34,620 --> 00:31:44,610 | Fairbury gaps, I'm not sorry, another pair of air gaps, the new weak opening gaps are real fair value. And they will gravitate back to the last four you want |
| 137 | 00:31:44,610 --> 00:31:54,270 | to have on your chart just for completeness sake and neatness. I'm only using the previous week. And this is something I taught this is before you seen it |
| 138 | 00:31:54,270 --> 00:32:03,960 | here, some of you already started doing the exercise and started looking at how the market gravitates back to these old areas. So it's it kind of laughs in the |
| 139 | 00:32:03,960 --> 00:32:15,090 | face of supply and demand because the market is seeking these areas to reprice and allow real fair value in the marketplace. You need to stop thinking buying |
| 140 | 00:32:15,090 --> 00:32:21,450 | and selling pressure. And you need to think about how the market runs to liquidity and inefficiencies. Because that's the only two primary functions that |
| 141 | 00:32:21,450 --> 00:32:30,390 | these markets deliver on. That's it. Listen, there's nothing else to consider it relative to time, obviously. But you can see how the previous week's new opening |
| 142 | 00:32:30,390 --> 00:32:39,000 | gap, we come up into it here. We gravitate around consequent encouragement, we trade down to the what the first quarter of it from the low to the high, look at |
| 143 | 00:32:39,000 --> 00:32:46,560 | the reaction there trades above it, then trades that all the way down through it into a fair value gap, which is reasonable because it acts like what |
| 144 | 00:32:46,800 --> 00:32:55,020 | institutional order flow entry drill, and then it rallies again comes back down and touches what the midpoint or consequent encouragement of the previous week's |
| 145 | 00:32:55,020 --> 00:33:04,500 | new week opening gap right here, then we come back down again, hit it, consolidate around the high end of the new weaker opening gap from the previous |
| 146 | 00:33:04,500 --> 00:33:13,800 | week, rallies there should displacement comes back down fair value gap order block old high of new week opening gap. And then we have all this movement |
| 147 | 00:33:13,800 --> 00:33:23,940 | higher. So I'm watching to see if we get that wrong, we only got to two minutes or so. Before the carnage hits the marketplace. I really wanted to see it hit |
| 148 | 00:33:23,940 --> 00:33:33,750 | that beforehand. But now because we haven't done that, you know, it's just a matter of seeing what we get. But do not absolutely be in the market right now. |
| 149 | 00:33:33,750 --> 00:33:41,820 | If you are your man you are asking for it. Pain, pain and suffering coming. |
| 150 | 00:33:51,570 --> 00:33:58,830 | While watching the 30 minute time frame, it'll be more impactful because one minute it'll just scroll right off my chart too fast and it won't be the same as |
| 151 | 00:33:58,830 --> 00:34:10,290 | seen. And I apologize. I know somebody you're wanting to complain to me about the audio. It's a work in progress from us, it'll get better |
| 152 | 00:34:17,790 --> 00:34:29,970 | now in previous observations and my own personal study of watching it, it tends to be immediately one sidedness. Like it's a one way street, it's a smashes one |
| 153 | 00:34:29,970 --> 00:34:40,920 | way, and you really can't participate in it one way or the other after it comes. And usually liquidity providers basically pool all of the opportunity for you |
| 154 | 00:34:40,920 --> 00:34:51,600 | really get in shortly before like right now, you know, it's really really hard for anyone to, you know, in my mind, assume a position. You can do it on demo |
| 155 | 00:34:51,600 --> 00:35:02,370 | cam. But the demo you won't you won't get your fill like you would want if you're trying to trade it live and gamble In about 30 seconds it's going to be |
| 156 | 00:35:02,370 --> 00:35:16,380 | ridiculous. Please, please please do not be in this marketplace you will lose money guaranteed Okay, so there you go there's my opinion about no one can hear |
| 157 | 00:35:16,380 --> 00:35:18,120 | me and be enticed by taking a trade |
| 158 | 00:35:23,820 --> 00:35:26,790 | 13 seconds, a lot of regret |
| 159 | 00:35:32,970 --> 00:35:45,840 | now after the CPI hits in, that tsunami of price action comes in, as you can see right here then we can look for price action to allow for your runs to |
| 160 | 00:35:45,840 --> 00:35:56,190 | inefficiencies achieved back to the fair value gap if you've tuned in timeframe this one here is what I'm talking about. |
| 161 | 00:36:12,030 --> 00:36:24,510 | What I'm looking at and what I'm really actively studying is there's a small little actual gap on the daily chart. And I don't want to toggle away from the |
| 162 | 00:36:24,510 --> 00:36:33,150 | chart now but it's above where we are now we're in it's in the 4200s and such, but I'm not saying anything about it or implying that we're gonna go higher but |
| 163 | 00:36:33,150 --> 00:36:44,550 | I want to see how they use the CPI number today. Because if it can turn bullish today, we could probably see trade into that daily get not to call it a whole |
| 164 | 00:36:44,550 --> 00:36:48,930 | lot of other charts without having to come away from this one second |
| 165 | 00:36:59,460 --> 00:37:06,900 | you look at Monday, August 22 of 2022 on your daily chart |
| 166 | 00:37:12,960 --> 00:37:27,720 | and August 19 2022 Those two dates for ES you should see there's an actual gap there where there's no no printed data at all that's a real liquidity void. I'm |
| 167 | 00:37:27,720 --> 00:37:42,060 | looking at that as if CPI turns to a day where it's bullish, we might be looking to go up there longer term to audit using that as a means for long term macro |
| 168 | 00:37:42,060 --> 00:37:54,750 | analysis not so much that that's my target for today is this is something I'm watching if I scroll down I might be able to show it on here with a there it is |
| 169 | 00:37:54,750 --> 00:38:05,670 | up here so that's the that's the range that daily chart gap is showing but we haven't really ran by sigh here yet so that's what we're expecting |
| 170 | 00:38:24,810 --> 00:38:32,580 | February seconds high is 42 08 50 deaths the next upside draw this level right here |
| 171 | 00:38:57,540 --> 00:39:03,540 | trying to be very careful how I talk to you today because some of you just really want to push a button |
| 172 | 00:39:13,530 --> 00:39:18,960 | so we've taken by sign out now after reaching down into the old 50 minute fair value got. |
| 173 | 00:39:38,070 --> 00:39:56,100 | Dollar Index if you look at the below $1 for February 9, we are just now piercing that low. So I'm watching Do we get any kind of rejection there on the |
| 174 | 00:39:56,100 --> 00:40:06,450 | dollar fitting starts to move higher than this is suggesting Maybe that buyside liquidity pool for ES was a read. And I don't want to make any kind of |
| 175 | 00:40:06,900 --> 00:40:15,360 | determination while I'm talking to you here because I'm putting by you know, a painful situation is it's still unfolding with the CPI number |
| 176 | 00:40:22,920 --> 00:40:35,790 | Dollar Index is coming off of its February 9 low. No, I'm not saying it's been reversed. But I'm just watching that right now. You can pull that up on |
| 177 | 00:40:35,790 --> 00:40:39,450 | TradingView with the symbol d x, y, it's free to see it |
| 178 | 00:40:55,620 --> 00:41:10,530 | Alright, we're going to drop down until a moment chart because we've cleared out by side let's see what we get here for lower timeframes now looking at this as a |
| 179 | 00:41:10,530 --> 00:41:21,390 | new trader when I first started trading this is kind of like what non farm payrolls would look like the really big movement we don't see it so much anymore |
| 180 | 00:41:21,390 --> 00:41:36,360 | today. I mean once I'll Malila but it's kind of become a very boring news event. So now as we have this low in this high here, we dipped down below it so I'm |
| 181 | 00:41:36,360 --> 00:41:45,210 | watching to see the surge we would have to show a really meaningful run above the consequent correction with this wick for me to feel bullish for that 42 08 |
| 182 | 00:41:47,490 --> 00:41:56,910 | implying that like if this was any other market day I would still be on my hands sitting not doing anything there's nothing in here for me to to act on |
| 183 | 00:42:14,910 --> 00:42:24,870 | and to be honest with you on a day like this, you want to see time between the release of 830 cpi number all the way to the opening at 930 and see how they use |
| 184 | 00:42:24,870 --> 00:42:28,830 | their opening range when the opening bell rings at 930 New York time |
| 185 | 00:42:37,110 --> 00:42:48,870 | any other day, I would use this as a bullish breaker now shouldn't be talking like this because some of you are forced to take this as an invitation to get in |
| 186 | 00:42:48,870 --> 00:42:59,070 | here and trade and I'm not don't I don't want you to do that. But I want you to compare and contrast when we're looking at babies that are under heavy |
| 187 | 00:42:59,070 --> 00:43:08,670 | manipulation like we're seeing with CPI you'll see me talk about a call it and it'll react a specific way like we would expect but in here I want you to study |
| 188 | 00:43:08,670 --> 00:43:16,740 | does the broker does that breaker rather provide a reason for price to want to go higher after being in it like it is here we have a small little volume |
| 189 | 00:43:16,740 --> 00:43:18,510 | imbalance that could dig down into that again |
| 190 | 00:43:31,920 --> 00:43:43,470 | in this candle right here is the full monty on there by signing balances on efficiency meaning that this is as far as you would want to see a really really |
| 191 | 00:43:43,470 --> 00:43:53,910 | deep retracement and sign up and again for the Yahoos are here listening always getting it wrong now I said it would need to go above the consequent |
| 192 | 00:43:53,910 --> 00:44:06,570 | encouragement for me to be bullish and would need to do so with the speed and distance and time didn't 930 opening bell hasn't run yet. So this is all pre |
| 193 | 00:44:06,570 --> 00:44:16,110 | session building a narrative what would be likely to see price do just because you're over on the chart doesn't mean it's time to enter |
| 194 | 00:44:22,140 --> 00:44:32,010 | so far this looks like it was a run on that 4170 And is watching that dollar |
| 195 | 00:44:41,730 --> 00:44:48,750 | bond market's not really given me any kind of help either. So to sit and steal |
| 196 | 00:44:57,720 --> 00:45:00,960 | is a good day for a lot of people lose money. I'm trying to do something |
| 197 | 00:45:07,710 --> 00:45:17,280 | but I would want as a younger guy when I first started and I discovered the non farm payrolls was a thing that repeated every month. I couldn't wait. I couldn't |
| 198 | 00:45:17,310 --> 00:45:26,910 | not do this as Non Farm Payroll but the volatility that this type of event brings in there was a lot of movement in price action. You start thinking |
| 199 | 00:45:26,910 --> 00:45:32,970 | yourself that's the day I want to trade in every other day we don't want to trade when that's not true. You want to trade every other day and not trade |
| 200 | 00:45:32,970 --> 00:45:40,230 | those days because those days are the ones that most likely are going to hurt you. But because they move around a lot you think that that's what you want to |
| 201 | 00:45:40,230 --> 00:45:56,730 | be a participant in and you can you can get hurt really really easy in these days. All right for you forex traders look at your euro 15 minute timeframe. You |
| 202 | 00:45:56,730 --> 00:46:20,970 | see how we worked both sides, buy side and sell side. Same thing with pound pound has liquidity at 2135. So one one point 2135 There sell side below that |
| 203 | 00:46:22,500 --> 00:46:39,510 | dollar looks like it could run back up into its gap on the new second I'll tell you where it is. You look at Monday 1900 and Monday 1800 That separation between |
| 204 | 00:46:39,510 --> 00:46:51,900 | that on your hourly chart for DX y you pull that up on trading view there'll be the TVC symbol dollar could gravitate back up to that never put pressure on |
| 205 | 00:46:54,630 --> 00:47:06,450 | foreign currencies anything can drop down just be careful with that 121 35 sellside on POUND DOLLAR it's too smooth and onwards doesn't mean it's going in |
| 206 | 00:47:06,450 --> 00:47:15,150 | but that's what I'm looking at Euro still in the middle of its range It's as clear that it's outside it's actually taken out like three different levels of |
| 207 | 00:47:15,150 --> 00:47:27,720 | short term lows on the 15 minute timeframe. POUND DOLLAR has not done that and that was only returned back down into and I realize I'm not showing you a chart |
| 208 | 00:47:27,750 --> 00:47:36,630 | and I'm trying not to move around too much because I'm not proficient with using this OBS I'm afraid if I pull up a chart and I've done it before No I streams |
| 209 | 00:47:36,630 --> 00:47:40,920 | where I'm talking about something that you couldn't see the chart so you all can pull these charts up when you're in. |
| 210 | 00:48:37,620 --> 00:48:54,570 | 5050 still anybody's market today so far buyer's or seller's they can both be argued I wouldn't want to be a buyer though. I wouldn't want to be going on |
| 211 | 00:49:20,310 --> 00:49:30,090 | so between Euro dollar and cable so British Pound versus US dollar and euro dollar. Do you look at the relationship between your 15 minute time frame lows, |
| 212 | 00:49:30,600 --> 00:49:41,730 | the 15 Minute candle we're in right now, cable was unwilling to make that lower low. So that's s&p divergence. And we may see some kind of confirmation in |
| 213 | 00:49:41,730 --> 00:49:51,810 | dollar that would support lower dollar and then that would open the gates for higher prices on foreign currency and that would give way for another run above |
| 214 | 00:49:51,810 --> 00:50:04,410 | the 4170 and a quarter level for ES bonds are still not any help at all. That's what's that's is causing the delay here. Also, they're gonna try to keep it |
| 215 | 00:50:04,410 --> 00:50:16,830 | inside this range most likely before we get into the 930 opening bell for equities so we have about 45 minutes before we probably start moving more freely |
| 216 | 00:50:20,520 --> 00:50:27,630 | unfortunately, there's no point for me to work with as a turning point intraday. |
| 217 | 00:51:00,840 --> 00:51:14,280 | Dow is trying to push higher, higher dollar is risk off, that means it's easier for equities and foreign currencies to drop. So I'm not saying that's what |
| 218 | 00:51:14,280 --> 00:51:24,240 | they're doing, but I'm just giving you a read as I'm watching it. If I start toggling through charts and such when you can do that on your own, open up |
| 219 | 00:51:24,450 --> 00:51:37,500 | Windows on your browsers with the dollar index, and NASDAQ and forex. So I'm measuring risk on risk off across a wide array of different instruments. And I'm |
| 220 | 00:51:37,500 --> 00:51:50,160 | using the bond market as well. So I'm looking at the five year the 10 year and the 30 year and looking for divergences in their yields. To kind of like confirm |
| 221 | 00:51:50,160 --> 00:52:00,840 | or negate a price run as we see these fluctuations in ES and for forex. I'm looking for that confirmation that what I'm seeing in those instruments is being |
| 222 | 00:52:00,900 --> 00:52:09,660 | seen in the bond yields. And you can look at my core content and understand what I mean by that. Too much of a live stream |
| 223 | 00:52:18,570 --> 00:52:28,500 | for NASDAQ traders look at your February 14, zero a colon 38 One minute candle I spared i got there extended out in time. |
| 224 | 00:52:51,810 --> 00:53:07,380 | If you look at the lows on y m. H 2023. That's your Dow futures. The lows on Dow versus the lows on NASDAQ NASDAQ failed to make a lower low as dow did. That's |
| 225 | 00:53:07,380 --> 00:53:13,740 | SMT. It's bullish near term, very short term. It doesn't mean much at all right now, but I'm just making an observation and sharing with you. |
| 226 | 00:53:27,450 --> 00:53:41,730 | Watch this gap in here. If we get above it, if it acts as support. We'll try to see if there's any reason for it to get back up into those highs these lows here |
| 227 | 00:53:43,440 --> 00:54:07,710 | in ES and I'll pull up NASDAQ keep your eye right here. Okay. We're looking at those lows. See the same low tire here. Now watch when we pull up the YM. See, I |
| 228 | 00:54:07,710 --> 00:54:18,420 | went lower. So that's divergence. I call it SMT. Smart Money technique, Smart Money tool. Whatever. I've never settled on the real need to stick with it. So |
| 229 | 00:54:18,420 --> 00:54:19,590 | we just call it SMT. |
| 230 | 00:54:25,260 --> 00:54:44,040 | So my focus on ES is this gap here. And I'm watching Do we get above it and treat it as support and then try to run back into that 4170 and a quarter level |
| 231 | 00:54:45,030 --> 00:54:57,120 | or does it fail even get through it at all and run lower? Either way, I think this initial fear of a gap is going to be influential going forward into the |
| 232 | 00:54:57,120 --> 00:55:00,990 | first part of this morning. One way or the other It's going to be the factor |
| 233 | 00:55:12,719 --> 00:55:28,049 | so we have SMT divergence at the lows on Euro Dollar versus British pound to pound was unwell and make a lower low with Euro the dollar index was unable to |
| 234 | 00:55:28,049 --> 00:55:40,679 | make a higher high, respectively as Euro made that lower low. So there's a USD x s and t diversion. So there's more fuel for to want to go higher, lower with |
| 235 | 00:55:40,889 --> 00:55:53,129 | dollar higher with Euro higher with pound and potentially higher on the indices here. And I said we're wanting other side of that fair value gap. So now what |
| 236 | 00:55:53,129 --> 00:56:03,989 | was the what was the procedure I just gave you a little while ago. As a reminder. If the imbalance is bullish, you want to see it stay above its |
| 237 | 00:56:03,989 --> 00:56:16,649 | midpoint, its consequent encouragement, its most sensitivity should be at the high of it, or the first quadrant from high. So does it come back down at all, |
| 238 | 00:56:16,679 --> 00:56:26,819 | it may not need to come back down. We just keep on going higher. But it does trade down here we want to watch and observe any sensitivity on that. So 4155 |
| 239 | 00:56:26,819 --> 00:56:27,659 | point 50. |
| 240 | 00:56:43,200 --> 00:56:58,770 | Good day. So you're going to watch the consequent curtailment the midpoint from consequent curtailment to the high of that shaded area and the high in that |
| 241 | 00:56:58,770 --> 00:57:08,430 | little bit of a range. We've hit it here. And we'll see does it have a willingness to want to run to 4170 and a quarter? Now, it's not a trade, okay, |
| 242 | 00:57:08,430 --> 00:57:16,710 | I'm not telling you to buy it. But what you're doing is when you're watching the tape like this, you're looking for these types of things to form. And it gives |
| 243 | 00:57:16,710 --> 00:57:31,110 | you feedback in terms of reading what price is likely to do next. If this were, for instance, say it was another day, it wasn't CPI, and say it was after 930. |
| 244 | 00:57:31,560 --> 00:57:43,380 | And we had worked off the first few minutes of trading. And now we're in a better position to trust a scenario. These instances here, I would like to see |
| 245 | 00:57:43,380 --> 00:57:50,970 | it stay in upper portion of that shaped area. It's already showing a willingness to not want to do that here, which is typical, because we still have time before |
| 246 | 00:57:50,970 --> 00:58:01,560 | we get to 930. And it's just gyrating back and forth, chopping up getting people in getting people stopped down. So you have to be mindful that. But if I ever |
| 247 | 00:58:01,590 --> 00:58:09,900 | describe a fair value gap that I like, what my eye goes to, if I'm bullish, I'm looking at the high of the fair value gap, which would be represented like this. |
| 248 | 00:58:10,620 --> 00:58:20,940 | Okay, so that's the fair value gap. Hi, the consequent encroachment in in the midpoint between that. Okay, so there's very, very specific three levels, three |
| 249 | 00:58:20,940 --> 00:58:30,690 | levels. And if I buy, and I'm not suggesting you should be doing here, I'm just giving you real time commentary. And what I mean by watching the fair pay gaps. |
| 250 | 00:58:31,680 --> 00:58:40,050 | If it trades down to here, and I'm bullish, right, the idea would be I would enter there. And then if it goes down to the midpoint between the consequent |
| 251 | 00:58:40,050 --> 00:58:48,960 | encouragement and the high of that, I would use that also as an entry. And if it touches the midpoint, I would use as an entry, but I would not want to see a |
| 252 | 00:58:48,960 --> 00:58:56,340 | trade like it's doing here. Because if I had a stop loss, like for instance, when it started going through the midpoint when most trading right there, that |
| 253 | 00:58:56,340 --> 00:59:04,290 | right there would have stopped me from saying, okay, my stop will be below here. Why? Because it's below the fair value gap. And it's the low outside of that |
| 254 | 00:59:04,290 --> 00:59:12,990 | debt. So my stop would be there. And then once it got to this point here, I would kill it, I would have bought to trade. And I wouldn't feel bad about it, I |
| 255 | 00:59:12,990 --> 00:59:19,560 | wouldn't second guess I wouldn't worry about it, it'd be done. Because holding on to it and watching it get stopped out when you know that your procedures and |
| 256 | 00:59:19,560 --> 00:59:29,250 | processes tell you, it's not likely to be favorable for you to hold on to it. That's why you have rules, get to have rules of engagement, you have to know |
| 257 | 00:59:29,730 --> 00:59:37,560 | what you're looking for what you don't want to see. And you have to be routine, they have to be written down, they have to be understood, and you know them like |
| 258 | 00:59:37,560 --> 00:59:46,800 | the back of your hand. And only then do you get to the point where where most of you ask me questions like how do I know how do I trust? How do we know it's |
| 259 | 00:59:46,800 --> 00:59:53,910 | going to it's just a matter of experience and seeing it over and over again. Much in the same way when you see things that you don't want to see. You trust |
| 260 | 00:59:53,910 --> 01:00:00,990 | that that's better for you to exit the marketplace and you're not worried about missing out if you would have stayed in it's better Soon as you see something |
| 261 | 01:00:00,990 --> 01:00:12,120 | that's problematic, you're never wrong. Okay? Listen to me. You're never wrong. Trying to preserve capitals. Yeah, so volume events here we hit, small little |
| 262 | 01:00:12,120 --> 01:00:23,820 | volume announced in there went way up into there after we left this fair Vega. So now watch consequent encouragement now here on this wick, you never are wrong |
| 263 | 01:00:24,690 --> 01:00:35,010 | by trying to preserve capital, because that's your number one responsibility because without money, that's like, you can have the nicest sports car or a nice |
| 264 | 01:00:35,040 --> 01:00:44,190 | luxury ride vehicle that money can buy. If you don't have gas in the tank, you're not going anywhere in it, okay, and you're a scrub sitting on the side of |
| 265 | 01:00:44,190 --> 01:00:52,650 | room and the car can't move. Nobody's interested. It's just they're impressed by that. So if you don't have any money or equity in your account, you can't do |
| 266 | 01:00:52,650 --> 01:01:03,270 | anything. So your number one rule is preserved capital not multiplied as fast as I can. Not what's the largest leverage, I can push on my funded account or over |
| 267 | 01:01:03,270 --> 01:01:08,700 | leverage in my real money account, if not funded? Hang on one second. |
| 268 | 01:01:27,210 --> 01:01:35,910 | So we've already went down the consequent encouragement to previous week, new week opening gap, that's what this level is here. The high of it, the midpoint |
| 269 | 01:01:35,910 --> 01:01:43,680 | of it, and the low of it. Then now here was that shaded fair value depth in the 50 minute time frame. So if you lost your orientation where you are, that's what |
| 270 | 01:01:43,680 --> 01:01:44,160 | we're seeing. |
| 271 | 01:01:50,370 --> 01:01:58,770 | Now we have that small little gap between these two candles here, which is below consequent question about that shaded blue area which is of that gap I said it's |
| 272 | 01:01:58,770 --> 01:02:13,170 | going to be influential in price action this morning. So there are orders below here for people are trying to buy this sell stocks below that. And then we have |
| 273 | 01:02:13,170 --> 01:02:19,650 | consequent encouragement, it doesn't necessarily take that low out but it can trade back down to that low which would still clean up any sell side below here. |
| 274 | 01:02:25,530 --> 01:02:31,170 | Don't push the button now your significant other he just told me a short run did not say that did not say that? |
| 275 | 01:02:50,820 --> 01:02:59,550 | Rally above that fair value gap, we go back into that same protocol. Do we see it support price at the high the midpoint between the high and consequent |
| 276 | 01:02:59,550 --> 01:03:08,760 | encouragement and consequent encouragement? So there are boundaries or barriers that levels that you're very specific about? It's finite, it's not ambiguous. |
| 277 | 01:03:08,790 --> 01:03:18,360 | It's not a supply and demand zone where you you where's the where's the order? Where's the level you're trying to trade on? It's not specific. So when I teach |
| 278 | 01:03:18,900 --> 01:03:28,290 | imbalances and fair value gaps in such cities by Sanibel sauce on efficiencies by Sundar Saltado, efficiencies, sell side and balance button efficiencies, |
| 279 | 01:03:28,350 --> 01:03:41,550 | either or, look how we came up into that consequent growth right here. So this small little gap right in here has been repriced, to do we trade below this for |
| 280 | 01:03:41,550 --> 01:03:51,810 | sale signs, or do we ramp through and then treat this as a support where we've tried to go lower, it showed no respect of it when I'm going above the initial |
| 281 | 01:03:51,810 --> 01:04:03,240 | time trading above it come back down that would be viewed as a reclaimed fair value got much like you expect a resistance broken turned support. imbalances |
| 282 | 01:04:03,270 --> 01:04:14,400 | are many times treated that way. Imbalances is the difference between this candles low and that candle side which this one little pass through. It's an |
| 283 | 01:04:14,460 --> 01:04:24,300 | it's imbalanced. Meaning it needs to have delivered on the upside, which is what we see here. It went all the way back up to and through this small imbalance. |
| 284 | 01:04:24,570 --> 01:04:34,620 | There's nothing up here that's an imbalance. Which means if we were to see it rally up and it say find support here and start to rally to this high because |
| 285 | 01:04:34,620 --> 01:04:42,780 | there's no imbalance in all of this price action above this high it implies what that's likely to go to the rejection block which is the highest of close closing |
| 286 | 01:04:42,780 --> 01:04:53,610 | price here. constant encouragement of the wick here in new high. For the buy side, that's what I'm framing. But because we're below the sphere Vega I told |
| 287 | 01:04:53,610 --> 01:05:01,620 | you it's influential right now. very vague that we went up into consequent encroachment sellside has been tagged here. Your focus on the downside is |
| 288 | 01:05:01,620 --> 01:05:08,670 | consequent person 4135, and a quarter, which we clean up the sell side below these lows here, for anyone that wants to do what long |
| 289 | 01:05:16,109 --> 01:05:27,089 | when you're watching price like this, it frees you up about being right or wrong, which unfortunately, you're trying to press yourself into that laboratory |
| 290 | 01:05:27,089 --> 01:05:35,729 | experiment with a demo account, or worse, you're trying to do it with real money or a funded account. And discovering that you don't know how to trade, you know |
| 291 | 01:05:35,729 --> 01:05:45,749 | how to manage yourself and you're reckless and you're impatient, and you're just impulsive, you just want to do something and nobody wants to go get drunk and |
| 292 | 01:05:45,749 --> 01:05:53,849 | get behind the wheel their car to see what they can do. Nobody in the right mind wants to do that. But that's the equivalent of what you're doing when you go |
| 293 | 01:05:53,849 --> 01:06:00,809 | with live money or somebody's account and you want to tree let's see what happens you know might make it home alive. You don't want that |
| 294 | 01:06:11,250 --> 01:06:20,070 | small little gap in here doesn't want to go above that. But it does treat this as an area to watch and see if it's supported to take us back up into this |
| 295 | 01:06:20,250 --> 01:06:29,610 | otherwise if it rejects it and goes lower your eyes should go here anybody could do this ICT this ain't trading your rights not trading it's tape reading this is |
| 296 | 01:06:29,610 --> 01:06:38,070 | where you get your insights on finding the setups that you love that you liked that makes sense to you retest back to that fear they get well the blue shaded |
| 297 | 01:06:38,070 --> 01:06:38,430 | area |
| 298 | 01:06:55,860 --> 01:07:08,400 | so far still no luck in determining any kind of buys through bonds or dollar so we're still stuck in this chart which is why you have to wait until 930. |
| 299 | 01:08:07,440 --> 01:08:15,090 | Keep your eye on where Asad sellside was regular here in consequent encouragement. |
| 300 | 01:08:45,600 --> 01:08:55,020 | James just was waiting for it to touch this 4146 Even level when the seat touched that and then repriced down to constant encouragement dig into the lower |
| 301 | 01:08:55,020 --> 01:09:00,900 | quarter of that range. Remember this is the old previous new week opening gap |
| 302 | 01:09:16,230 --> 01:09:34,860 | so 4137 and a quarter 4135 and a quarter there's specific levels on downside to reach a little bit further lower. Those are ones to watch no trades though. case |
| 303 | 01:09:34,860 --> 01:09:41,640 | you guys want to know entries no setups, nothing here. Still aimless. |
| 304 | 01:09:52,590 --> 01:10:04,170 | repriced high end of the previous week's new week opening gap so this was the old high and they're not there. is present weeks, it's the previous week, so two |
| 305 | 01:10:04,170 --> 01:10:09,510 | Sundays ago, where we open to in relationship to the prior week, Friday. |
| 306 | 01:10:16,920 --> 01:10:33,780 | So from that 4146, two consequent encouragement at 4140 in a quarter, that's five handles. As a new startup student that's trying to look for something that |
| 307 | 01:10:33,780 --> 01:10:42,540 | repeats, like a little cookie cutter, something that you look for, for your first little trophy, or though cookie for rewarded, studying price action. |
| 308 | 01:10:43,110 --> 01:10:52,590 | That's what I try to teach my students to look for. And it's so easy to see them throughout the course of an entire day, when the markets are more likely to move |
| 309 | 01:10:52,650 --> 01:11:04,830 | one sided. Whereas right now, this is typical. We're waiting for the opening session at 930, which is 24 minutes and 30 seconds or so away. |
| 310 | 01:11:15,960 --> 01:11:24,180 | I was hoping it's gonna give me a little bit better structured, and it's given me because I have to close at 945 with you, and go do my things with my wife and |
| 311 | 01:11:24,210 --> 01:11:34,110 | my son, because we have holidays today. So I can at least give you something as I leave. I'm not certain I have anything yet. But that can change at 930. |
| 312 | 01:11:43,980 --> 01:11:56,850 | Right away from watching the new week opening gap at 4146. Borrowing a day event like this, but just simple little runs on algorithmic levels. What do you want |
| 313 | 01:11:56,850 --> 01:12:11,880 | 46? booked to 4140 in a quarter even went below it. There's six handles there. Why is it? So? It doesn't look like much? Because it's not much. And I'm sure |
| 314 | 01:12:11,880 --> 01:12:22,080 | that those young guys in here with your egos. You're looking at that? I could do that as young getting this and that that's I'm not You're not audience camp |
| 315 | 01:12:22,080 --> 01:12:29,430 | talking to the people that have no idea what they're doing. What are they? What should they be looking for? What's their first objective to look for continuous |
| 316 | 01:12:29,430 --> 01:12:40,410 | delivery of a objective or target? Something that repeats? Easy five handles? It feels rewarding. Now look at reaction we're getting off of that constant |
| 317 | 01:12:40,410 --> 01:12:49,680 | encouragement? Do we run aggressively backed up into this area here? That's what I'm weighing out? Do we see it quickly get there, if we get to it and through |
| 318 | 01:12:49,680 --> 01:13:00,270 | it, then go back to watching this upper half of that prevent I'm sorry, for the fair value gap. I would have preferred rather to see it go through these short |
| 319 | 01:13:00,270 --> 01:13:08,340 | term loads, though, if I was being honest with you, because if we were to do that, reject and then come back about this fear of a gap, we would have several |
| 320 | 01:13:08,340 --> 01:13:16,710 | factors in here that would lend potential support, which would be the old fear of a gap here. Specifically the consequent encouragement, upper quarter, and the |
| 321 | 01:13:16,710 --> 01:13:31,410 | high then also how far we go above. We could treat this as a bullish breaker, which it's not right now. Because we haven't had the low, lower low. Came back |
| 322 | 01:13:31,410 --> 01:13:35,790 | up into this little Faraday gap here. Now does reprice for that sell side here. |
| 323 | 01:14:00,450 --> 01:14:14,610 | When you strip away your observation of price in relationship to indicators or patterns like Don't, don't look at price with patterns. Look at where orders |
| 324 | 01:14:14,610 --> 01:14:27,600 | would be resting below old lows above old highs. Where's the market? Have course price action, like we just saw here between this candles low. In this candles |
| 325 | 01:14:27,600 --> 01:14:37,740 | high there's that one little section on that down close candle. It went right up into that rain here and then repriced lower. Look at the bodies respecting the |
| 326 | 01:14:37,740 --> 01:14:51,660 | old new week opening gap. The whips knew the damage, but the bodies are telling you the story. So what's down here sellside how far can it go? You can go down |
| 327 | 01:14:51,660 --> 01:15:02,730 | to 4137 and a quarter which is between this constant encouragement and the low of the previous new week opening gap. For 4135 and a quarter, which is the |
| 328 | 01:15:02,730 --> 01:15:13,890 | consequent parchment midpoint of this wick here, because the algorithm sees it as a gap, so it's likely to reprice that price, or 4137 and a quarter. Either |
| 329 | 01:15:13,890 --> 01:15:25,650 | one would clean up this little area here. And then we would see, does it want to accelerate to the downside? If it does, that makes the case for this having been |
| 330 | 01:15:25,980 --> 01:15:35,520 | the real move for CPI, the cleared by side traders are at that point trap net long. And they're just going to keep repricing lower not letting them off the |
| 331 | 01:15:35,520 --> 01:15:43,290 | hook. And smart money. We'll have accumulated shorts up here. That's kind of like last thought my earlier I want to see does it go up all that and reject. |
| 332 | 01:15:43,830 --> 01:15:55,080 | And so far, we've seen that. But now we're in that point here tells the rest of the story do we drive through this? For continuation lower and I'm watching |
| 333 | 01:15:55,080 --> 01:16:11,940 | dollar as we're talking so dollar has shown some interest after taking that February 9 low as I mentioned. Forex traders mindful of again, that POUND DOLLAR |
| 334 | 01:16:12,480 --> 01:16:25,200 | 1.2135 sells on liquidity. If it trades back down here that erases all the bullish SMT. And there's your delivery here. And I want to make it sound like |
| 335 | 01:16:25,200 --> 01:16:31,350 | that's a big deal. Okay, but let me tell you something, when I first started looking at price, and I start seeing these types of moves, where I could see a |
| 336 | 01:16:31,350 --> 01:16:43,380 | fair value gap to reprice the here to to here, to that level down here. When it started, like it just did here. That to me was so rewarding, because it wasn't a |
| 337 | 01:16:43,380 --> 01:16:55,020 | random thing. It was something that I was scientifically measuring based on previous experiences, specific levels, not, you know, some contrived indicator |
| 338 | 01:16:55,140 --> 01:17:05,640 | or theory that it should do this or shouldn't do that. It wasn't ambiguous, it was something very finite, a very specific level. Because we were below the fair |
| 339 | 01:17:05,640 --> 01:17:15,630 | value gap, it should trade down into here. And how far trade down into this level here. And or what's the darker line here, that's that low within previous |
| 340 | 01:17:15,630 --> 01:17:25,800 | new week opening gap. If we break through that, on the downside, then in my opinion, as long as we remain below the consequent encouragement level, were |
| 341 | 01:17:25,800 --> 01:17:34,740 | bearish on the day. So that's that's how I use all this information. It would need to get back above the high of the previous new week open and get which is |
| 342 | 01:17:34,740 --> 01:17:44,670 | this specific level of 4146. For me to even consider probing the long side. So hopefully it kind of like gives you how the process framing a narrative, which |
| 343 | 01:17:44,670 --> 01:17:55,020 | leads to a bias for the session, to everything has a reason there's a place for everything. There's a logic behind it. It's not contrived, it's not conjecture, |
| 344 | 01:17:55,200 --> 01:18:04,980 | it's not cherry picked. It's a simple process of looking at certain things, and weighing out what is most favorable and what's most likely not to occur. And in |
| 345 | 01:18:04,980 --> 01:18:12,750 | the beginning, there's so many things that you have to consider. It feels overwhelming, which is why you have to have someone that knows how to do it walk |
| 346 | 01:18:12,750 --> 01:18:24,390 | with you for a year. And that's why I'm here trying to give you that insight can't put a price tag on it |
| 347 | 01:18:31,950 --> 01:18:38,520 | so about 17 minutes until the opening bill. |
| 348 | 01:18:46,650 --> 01:18:54,570 | Can you guys give me another audio check? I know it's not as good as the audio probably was earlier. But can you still hear me? I'm asking you to give me a |
| 349 | 01:18:54,570 --> 01:18:56,520 | five by five on audio on Twitter. |
| 350 | 01:19:20,760 --> 01:19:38,430 | Take your tax rounds. Thank you, Mike. Appreciate. Thank you. Thanks. So there's the low of the previous week. The week opening gap and now we're getting into |
| 351 | 01:19:38,430 --> 01:19:51,390 | that 15 minute fair value gap that I mentioned from yesterday. So the things that you'd be concerned about here now is the early session low. Do we trade |
| 352 | 01:19:51,390 --> 01:20:00,180 | through that and rejected and start to climb higher it would need to get above the previous new weak opening gaps high which is this level here. So implied In |
| 353 | 01:20:00,180 --> 01:20:11,640 | terms, I'm expecting lower prices unless we are above 4146. And then once we're above 4146, it doesn't mean I'm just buying, I'm then switching my bias to |
| 354 | 01:20:11,640 --> 01:20:22,020 | bullish, and then I'd be looking for this fair value, get to offer a reason for price getting through it and then find some support. So we go back to previous |
| 355 | 01:20:22,050 --> 01:20:33,330 | PD arrays, and treat them exactly what you're taught to do with ambiguous Support Resistance, diagonal trend lines, which are not objective, they're |
| 356 | 01:20:33,570 --> 01:20:42,150 | completely subjective. Whereas an imbalanced like this, it stands out, because all of this back and forth price action in here, and there's no imbalance there. |
| 357 | 01:20:42,840 --> 01:20:53,430 | So when it stands out like that, that's a finite objective place for you to be observing and measuring. Versus what diagonal trendline do you use? Which, which |
| 358 | 01:20:53,460 --> 01:21:03,300 | kilos and which key highs Do you draw a trendline. From and I mentioned this before, if we were in a large audience setting, and I gave a random selection of |
| 359 | 01:21:03,330 --> 01:21:10,800 | multiple people come up and give them a timeframe of a chart, any chart in any market, invariably, they're all going to have different trend lines, if they're |
| 360 | 01:21:10,800 --> 01:21:17,100 | not allowed to see what either one is doing. If they can't copy, because they're all gonna be afraid that they're going to do it wrong. So let's stay with the |
| 361 | 01:21:17,100 --> 01:21:26,850 | majority, which is why traders lose, because they're using the herd mentality of analysis concepts. Not understanding that the markets are algorithmic and |
| 362 | 01:21:26,850 --> 01:21:37,470 | they're booking and repricing and delivering based on what I'm showing you here. These are very finite levels. They're, they're easy to derive from your own |
| 363 | 01:21:37,470 --> 01:21:47,130 | data. And it's free, it's like you don't need any kind of service, you don't need any kind of, you know, software package the pie, nothing, you just need to |
| 364 | 01:21:47,130 --> 01:22:00,510 | open high, low and close and understand time. So Dow, I'm looking a little strong in here that's favorable. My eye keeps going to that key will |
| 365 | 01:22:01,710 --> 01:22:14,220 | 121 3121 35. If it accelerates on the downside, you want to take a look at the fair value gap. And then something like can you talk about forex, later, not |
| 366 | 01:22:14,220 --> 01:22:27,810 | enough for a long time as at February 13, the 945 candle for the 15 minute timeframe on POUND DOLLAR, you should have that annotated on your chart. Again, |
| 367 | 01:22:27,810 --> 01:22:40,890 | it's February 13, of 2023. On your 15 minute time frame, look at the candle at time 09 colon four, five, so 945 on the 13th of February, if the men timeframe |
| 368 | 01:22:40,890 --> 01:22:57,390 | for cable, you want to take that extend that to the right, and that would put you in the vicinity of 121 10. or there abouts. It's just, it's a factor for a |
| 369 | 01:22:57,390 --> 01:23:06,840 | drawn liquidity for me if we see it crushed the 121 30 sell side of things, if it ramps up goes through it not ramps up indirectly because it would go down if |
| 370 | 01:23:06,840 --> 01:23:24,180 | it went down here. But I'd like to 121 10 120 108 and a half level for POUND DOLLAR. for ELLs, the only thing we're working with here is we just traded up |
| 371 | 01:23:24,180 --> 01:23:43,350 | into the lower quarter level, which is that one, sorry, the 4137 and a quarter level you go back to showing you. Here is the midpoint. And here is the low. And |
| 372 | 01:23:43,350 --> 01:23:52,410 | this is the previous week's new week opening gap set. Remember I shown you the 4137 A quarter level it was a draw to get to the sell side liquidity pools in |
| 373 | 01:23:52,410 --> 01:24:05,670 | the consequent quarter on that which was 4135 and a quarter. So now because we went down through into this old, new, weak, open and get low, we retraced was |
| 374 | 01:24:05,670 --> 01:24:13,350 | there any imbalance in here? No. So what level are we looking at? What am i What's my eye looking at? It's looking at the difference between the midpoint |
| 375 | 01:24:13,350 --> 01:24:23,370 | and the low or that Oh, new week opening up these two levels here. My eyes splitting that in half. Many times I'm rounding it, which is why sometimes you |
| 376 | 01:24:23,370 --> 01:24:32,880 | see me doing partials and such. We're on peer meeting. I might be awful natural high by a quarter point or maybe two ticks. I don't care because I'm using the |
| 377 | 01:24:32,880 --> 01:24:42,630 | logic which is essentially this 4137 and a quarter level. We went up to it here. So now I'm watching does it want to repel price from actually actually hitting |
| 378 | 01:24:42,630 --> 01:24:57,180 | that? Do we accelerate to the downside? Everything's bearish on this until we get above 4146. Now doesn't that make sense? You may not like all of the extra |
| 379 | 01:24:57,180 --> 01:25:06,060 | things I'm describing and having a good rely on other things, but that's something you're going to have to grow into. I mean, the strongest technical |
| 380 | 01:25:06,060 --> 01:25:14,370 | analysis is going to have intermarket relationships. If you're doing your trading on just the chart you're looking at and nothing else, you're literally |
| 381 | 01:25:14,370 --> 01:25:22,380 | standing with your nose against the tree trying to see the forest, you can't see everything like that, it will be very frustrating for you just, you want it to |
| 382 | 01:25:22,380 --> 01:25:32,010 | be easy. Just watch your one chart. Okay. I guess in a lot of ways, you know, everybody would want that I did. But then I realized that you have to constantly |
| 383 | 01:25:32,010 --> 01:25:44,070 | look at other things. And they're all going to be influenced, or influential to your trading, because everything's connected. Everything is connected. So you |
| 384 | 01:25:44,070 --> 01:25:51,750 | might be hearing me say earlier, I'm looking at the bond market and the market, why would I want to look at the bond market, because interest rates are the real |
| 385 | 01:25:51,750 --> 01:25:59,970 | fundamental driver, if you want to look at long term macro, long term, macro influences over the marketplace is going to be driven primarily over interest |
| 386 | 01:25:59,970 --> 01:26:08,130 | rates, whether you're trading currencies, or whether you're trading in equities, because the interest rates is how commerce is done. That lending and borrowing |
| 387 | 01:26:08,130 --> 01:26:19,740 | of money. And the the ease of getting that or the cost of getting it is going to be an impact to all measures of commerce. And since we're dealing with |
| 388 | 01:26:19,740 --> 01:26:29,820 | currencies, for forex trading and or equities for stocks, it goes without saying that you need to have that finger on the pulse, understanding what interest |
| 389 | 01:26:29,820 --> 01:26:41,760 | rates are doing. In a taught all of that and the core content, so you don't need to ask me I'll tweet and think because it's already their core sellers hate him. |
| 390 | 01:26:43,590 --> 01:26:44,100 | I see. |
| 391 | 01:26:53,040 --> 01:27:07,110 | So we're about eight minutes or so we have an opening bell. Now, at this time, what I like to do is I like to refer to where we are a couple minutes before the |
| 392 | 01:27:07,110 --> 01:27:22,530 | opening bell at 930. And down here on trading, do you see this little e t h? That's electronic hours. I like to toggle that to regular trading hours. Okay, |
| 393 | 01:27:23,160 --> 01:27:38,100 | and this is where we were yesterday, that session closed. Okay, so that price, you want to drop a line from there and you want this to be really bold, it's |
| 394 | 01:27:38,100 --> 01:27:50,820 | going to really stand out so that way you don't miss it. You can't misinterpret what it is. And then toggle right back to electronic trading hours. So now what |
| 395 | 01:27:50,820 --> 01:28:02,730 | does that suggesting here? Here's that line. Now remember, 4150 and a quarter? Let's go back to regular trading hours. 4150 and a quarter is yesterday's |
| 396 | 01:28:02,730 --> 01:28:17,490 | closing price. 50 minutes after four. Okay, that's like the bell ring. Yes, markets still trade that goes a little bit further than that. But we're not |
| 397 | 01:28:17,490 --> 01:28:24,720 | concerned about that. Right now. I'm showing you how to look at our internalizing price action at the open. The open is 930 When When the bell |
| 398 | 01:28:24,720 --> 01:28:34,470 | rings, you see it on CNBC or financial news networks. Ding ding, ding the bell rings. Everybody's applauding, like they did something. The go back to |
| 399 | 01:28:34,470 --> 01:28:43,950 | electronic trading. We're trading here now. So what does that mean? We're trading at a discount relative to yesterday's trade. So the retail trader sees |
| 400 | 01:28:43,950 --> 01:29:01,800 | what a gap lower in response to where we closed yesterday to where we are right now. So because of that, whenever you see that difference between that it is a |
| 401 | 01:29:01,800 --> 01:29:11,250 | likelihood that the market will likely pull up and try to gravitate towards that. Not immediately, always, not all the time. Will it do this? Is this |
| 402 | 01:29:11,250 --> 01:29:20,190 | something that you're going to be measuring? Once the market starts trading at 930? The opening range when I when I'm talking about the opening range? Okay, |
| 403 | 01:29:20,190 --> 01:29:26,430 | this is for your notes, because if you're not taking notes, you're not doing this right. When you hear me talk about okay, we got to watch the opening range. |
| 404 | 01:29:26,640 --> 01:29:35,940 | What What time is the opening range? Well, it's from 930, to traditionally about 10 o'clock, so it's about 30 minutes, I'll give it about 30 minutes, meaning |
| 405 | 01:29:35,940 --> 01:29:46,470 | inside that 30 minutes. I'm trying to measure the willingness for price wherever we open up at to get back to the previous session close. If it's a gap down |
| 406 | 01:29:46,800 --> 01:29:56,670 | opening. In those first 30 minutes, I'm trying to determine was there any willingness to want to see the algorithm repriced, back to that level? If there |
| 407 | 01:29:56,670 --> 01:30:07,050 | is no immediate dire need for it to get back up to it and This case, that means we're extremely bearish. And then I can turn my attention to deeper discount |
| 408 | 01:30:07,080 --> 01:30:20,400 | objectives that would be on a 15 minute timeframe to our HR or a daily. And I would use those ideals or ideas to frame a bias. So when you when you hear me |
| 409 | 01:30:20,400 --> 01:30:28,800 | talk about opening range, it's specific to about a 30 minute time window. But I'm looking at that first 30 minutes to see if there's any interest for us to |
| 410 | 01:30:28,800 --> 01:30:42,330 | reprice back up to the previous session close. And unless you have this on your charts it's kind of like a day traders little secret thing, okay, they the |
| 411 | 01:30:42,330 --> 01:30:49,860 | traders that know how to do this, they're not going to want to talk about openly because it's just one of their little edges. But I've taught it for a long time. |
| 412 | 01:30:49,890 --> 01:30:59,700 | And it's not, it's not mine. Okay, it's a simple little thing that it's a quirky, little nuanced that price tends to do. When everything went to |
| 413 | 01:30:59,700 --> 01:31:08,250 | electronic trading, it just so happens that these are some of the things that are offered with algorithmic delivery, it's a form of fair value, getting back |
| 414 | 01:31:08,250 --> 01:31:17,760 | to where we were yesterday, think of it as support broken now turn resistance, so it has to get up here to be acting as resistance, right? If it fails to make |
| 415 | 01:31:17,760 --> 01:31:28,140 | any meaningful attempt to get up there, that is an underlying weakness, that spells further decay, for price to reach lower. In that case, we would want to |
| 416 | 01:31:28,140 --> 01:31:37,380 | see it trade through the midpoint or consequent correction of the shaded area, which is that yesterday fair value gap. If it trades below this level here with |
| 417 | 01:31:37,380 --> 01:31:49,830 | the speed, we would expect it to go below it. And outside of that shaded area, it's low end. But we always have to give that first couple minutes at the |
| 418 | 01:31:49,830 --> 01:31:59,070 | opening bell at 930 New York time does it want to retrace now with that in mind, let's look at let's just play devil's advocate for a minute because we still |
| 419 | 01:31:59,070 --> 01:32:09,300 | have a couple of minutes from where we are right now. Let's assume that the bell was ringing at 930. At this moment, looking back, there's only this small little |
| 420 | 01:32:09,300 --> 01:32:17,730 | imbalance right here, which we just above consequent encouragement of the new week opening gap of the previous week. This is why I told you, you have to have |
| 421 | 01:32:17,730 --> 01:32:28,770 | a chart that you save in your tenure platform that you only have annotated previous week, new week opening gap for the last four weeks. So you're going to |
| 422 | 01:32:28,770 --> 01:32:38,730 | have always referring to the one we are trading in right now for the week of trading, you're looking at the charts, and the previous four weeks. By having |
| 423 | 01:32:38,730 --> 01:32:49,380 | that you're going to have an x ray view of how the algorithm is going to refer back to that stuff. Okay, and I'm trying not to spoil the surprises when you do |
| 424 | 01:32:49,380 --> 01:32:57,960 | this on your own and you'll see what I mean when you see it, it's your jaw is gonna drop because it's like, what the hell, you could just make a model off of |
| 425 | 01:32:57,960 --> 01:33:10,290 | that. You can build bias models and you build all kinds of wonderful trading algorithms, models, trading plans, patterns, setups, you know, whatever you want |
| 426 | 01:33:10,290 --> 01:33:21,660 | to call it, just on that insight alone, and no one has ever taught it to you ever. It's never been in any kind of provocation never been anything. And it's a |
| 427 | 01:33:21,660 --> 01:33:34,560 | matter of looking at this relationship that constantly falls in line with price delivery. Dollars really muscled through its opening gap. So now I'm going to |
| 428 | 01:33:34,560 --> 01:33:42,120 | take your tension over to the D xy chart real quick before the opening bell on your hourly chart, you want to have |
| 429 | 01:33:47,220 --> 01:34:05,250 | 103 point 218 muted and you want to have 103 point 284 noted so that's an that's a gap extending out to the right we're above it now but we want to see it stay |
| 430 | 01:34:05,250 --> 01:34:17,010 | above that at this point, which would support lower prices on es British Pound is just inside of striking distance of that sells out liquidity pool I mentioned |
| 431 | 01:34:17,040 --> 01:34:29,430 | earlier. Eurodollar is really losing ground. Euro traders you want to take a look at your 15 minute timeframe. And I take the fair value gap on February 13 |
| 432 | 01:34:29,550 --> 01:34:40,110 | at the 945 Candle team in a timeframe Euro dollar candle at 09 45 That's your survey got for discount |
| 433 | 01:34:50,310 --> 01:34:55,860 | like a friggin DJ. I think he's mixing all the Greatest Hits and the new ones |
| 434 | 01:35:04,560 --> 01:35:10,980 | Alright, just about 30 More seconds now we should start seeing some movement in here that some more meaningful |
| 435 | 01:35:31,830 --> 01:35:38,970 | it's gonna be very expensive for me today at three holidays you can afford it |
| 436 | 01:35:50,310 --> 01:35:58,110 | right so we have cost of encroachment, it's breached that on es so watch the low end of that shaded area. So 4122 and a quarter want to see it through that |
| 437 | 01:35:58,350 --> 01:36:05,790 | opening bells ringing we're gonna screenshot that. Okay. screenshot that for you Yes. |
| 438 | 01:36:16,170 --> 01:36:19,500 | Got to higher timeframe get better frame of reference |
| 439 | 01:36:25,380 --> 01:36:34,680 | those are all fairly I got from yesterday, I mentioned that we want to see it to the open, that might become a factor for complete closure today. So if we |
| 440 | 01:36:34,680 --> 01:36:45,660 | accelerate through this, we're Vega, that may be where we're looking. And then we have a lot of fun right now. But don't forget that in a couple minutes, I got |
| 441 | 01:36:45,660 --> 01:36:46,290 | to escape. |
| 442 | 01:36:56,070 --> 01:37:06,510 | All right, Dollar Index. Higher. Again, I told you that we pressure, there's your clap your debt closure from yesterday. So that's good, at least I was able |
| 443 | 01:37:06,510 --> 01:37:16,080 | to call something beforehand before I escaped today. So you got a chance to observe how we use intermarket relationships in a market analysis, use $1 index, |
| 444 | 01:37:16,380 --> 01:37:28,740 | use the weight of forex, because you're going to be measuring the buying and selling of foreign currency in the relationships of what risk on risk off. So |
| 445 | 01:37:28,770 --> 01:37:37,800 | the dollar index was my catalyst this morning telling you to watch that February 9 low. It was a turtle soup scenario. Going down there and rejecting it, we got |
| 446 | 01:37:37,800 --> 01:37:49,680 | that acceleration through, you want to look at 103 at $1. Look at that on your hourly chart. That's basically like the reject me make sure I'm getting the |
| 447 | 01:37:49,680 --> 01:38:04,230 | right number. I'm sorry. I'm growing impatient because I'm in my wife's gonna come in here saying, are you ready? Yes, yes, yes, I'm ready. I'm ready. Mary |
| 448 | 01:38:04,230 --> 01:38:15,690 | folks is the way it is. So 10310 3.78, that's your rejection block on an hourly chart. So have that on your dollar index. That's likely where we're going to |
| 449 | 01:38:15,720 --> 01:38:29,550 | pull up to for dollar if we continuously push higher. And that would pressure the Eurodollar and cable to levels I mentioned moments ago. Cables just in |
| 450 | 01:38:29,550 --> 01:38:39,180 | striking distance of the objective that gave you it's already smashed the South Side and gave us a townsite target. And we've completely repriced all the way to |
| 451 | 01:38:39,390 --> 01:38:40,350 | this old high. |
| 452 | 01:38:46,800 --> 01:38:56,610 | So now because it's done this, you want to see does it want to reprice back up into this fair value gap for the bears. For people that want to sell short, you |
| 453 | 01:38:56,610 --> 01:39:06,300 | want to see it stay below the midpoint or consequent encouragement specifically 4120 Even as long as we remain below 4120 Even, we're looking for lower prices. |
| 454 | 01:39:06,720 --> 01:39:08,820 | And you would look for sell side below here |
| 455 | 01:39:14,430 --> 01:39:35,100 | and then over here. So as long as we're below 4128 Southside below this low here on February 12. And in near term, sellside is beloved here. Okay, so that's the |
| 456 | 01:39:35,100 --> 01:39:48,240 | business. And I guess that it's going to be at this point of start packing up this show here. I do hope you found this morning's discussion over live candles |
| 457 | 01:39:48,240 --> 01:40:00,690 | and narrative building and how I look at the logic between these candles and the opening relationships and the relationship to the dollar index. You bond market, |
| 458 | 01:40:00,720 --> 01:40:13,350 | I didn't really have anything mentioned that was noteworthy. But for CPI, I guess this was a fruitful study, because I can't push a button in front of you |
| 459 | 01:40:13,380 --> 01:40:24,540 | with it. And I'm not trying to entice you all to do it. So we're retracing back into that fair value gap. As I mentioned, 4120, that's your line in a scene. So |
| 460 | 01:40:24,540 --> 01:40:36,420 | if it trades back above 4128, it may run up above it, and then come back down to 4128, or 4131. If it supports it, and starts to rally back to 4140, then you |
| 461 | 01:40:36,420 --> 01:40:45,690 | would expect it to trade back to 4150 and a quarter because that's yesterday's closing price, we are still in a deep discount. Okay, and the way this is |
| 462 | 01:40:45,690 --> 01:40:52,800 | internalized is traders that want to be long, or want to be a buyer, they're going to really feel comfortable with doing this because they think they're |
| 463 | 01:40:52,800 --> 01:41:03,450 | buying it really cheap. And their target would be that to yesterday's closing price at 4150 and a quarter. I'm not suggesting that's what's going to happen, |
| 464 | 01:41:03,510 --> 01:41:12,000 | my Miss telling him the framework, because I'm gonna be leaving you. And it's something for you to observe and study. But as long as we're below 4128, |
| 465 | 01:41:12,480 --> 01:41:30,210 | sellside liquidity and new week opening gap for this week, it gravitates back to that new work, we're going back into the chart. So hopefully it helps. I know it |
| 466 | 01:41:30,210 --> 01:41:38,160 | would have helped me as a trader, you know, when I was first starting out, I had this information and the logic, knowing what I'm looking for, what are you |
| 467 | 01:41:38,160 --> 01:41:48,630 | looking for, as a trader? You know, what, what levels are key? What would you expect price to do around these levels, you know, what factor constitutes a |
| 468 | 01:41:48,660 --> 01:41:58,260 | sustained price run higher or lower. That's what I'm, that's what I'm teaching you. But you can't learn that from a book. You can't learn it from view videos |
| 469 | 01:41:58,260 --> 01:42:10,410 | that you watch by me or anyone else, you have to see it being used daily, in day in and day out the same type of thing, the same logic. And by conditioning, by |
| 470 | 01:42:10,410 --> 01:42:19,140 | repetition, seeing over and over and over again, the times when it really works a lot in the times that me as the operator, I'll do it wrong. And hopefully |
| 471 | 01:42:19,140 --> 01:42:28,260 | it'll encourage you to not fear doing it wrong as a trader too. Because it's gonna happen you're gonna mess up I mean, everybody's a human being right. |
| 472 | 01:42:33,300 --> 01:42:47,790 | So far, we have a speed bump on Dollar Index, trading at the fair value gap. Look at your 15 minute timeframe. 945 Yesterday, okay, that's already got |
| 473 | 01:42:47,910 --> 01:42:50,040 | extended out in time to the right. |
| 474 | 01:42:55,770 --> 01:42:57,570 | price levels, make sure you have the right ones. |
| 475 | 01:43:02,700 --> 01:43:23,340 | You should have 103 point 470 annotated on your dollar 50 minute timeframe chart. And the low the low at 103 Point 530. We've already traded into it about |
| 476 | 01:43:23,340 --> 01:43:31,890 | the consequent approach made fun of it. So it's reasonable to see these types of things happen where it trades up into it starts to cool off a little bit. That's |
| 477 | 01:43:31,890 --> 01:43:45,600 | completely normal. Watch that 4128 es though. Remember, that's the that's the one missing. Look at that reaction right there. That in itself is five handles, |
| 478 | 01:43:46,320 --> 01:43:55,440 | just treating like that treating that consequent encroachment, and then break down lower five minutes just like that thing. high frequency traders. In high |
| 479 | 01:43:55,440 --> 01:44:03,360 | frequency algorithms do that very thing, this seam right there. That's what high frequency traders do that when when they have these algorithms that are coming |
| 480 | 01:44:03,360 --> 01:44:12,060 | in the marketplace, and constantly hitting the market. They're pinging off of these types of levels. And getting the fluctuations they're targeting |
| 481 | 01:44:12,060 --> 01:44:18,450 | constantly. It might be three handles, it might be two handles, but they're doing it continuously all day long. Buying and selling, buying and selling, |
| 482 | 01:44:18,450 --> 01:44:26,160 | buying and selling, buying and selling. That is not the algorithm or price engine that prints and books pricing gravitates towards these levels I'm showing |
| 483 | 01:44:26,460 --> 01:44:36,960 | that's entirely something different. That's the highway. That's the highway that the high frequency algorithms and traders that are deemed smart money. They |
| 484 | 01:44:37,380 --> 01:44:46,800 | navigate on that highway, which is the algorithm that delivers price. They navigate that with their own individual algorithms that put them in and out of |
| 485 | 01:44:46,800 --> 01:44:58,860 | trades. Much like an exit ramp on and off of interstate highways. Think of the main algorithm the price engine that's the that's the highway the mat across the |
| 486 | 01:44:58,860 --> 01:45:12,300 | entire landscape of trading, every one of us has different approaches to getting from one place to the next. And you can decide to get to one place to the next, |
| 487 | 01:45:12,390 --> 01:45:20,970 | if you're shooting, if you're heading south as a trader, you're heading south as a trader, you have multiple opportunities to get on that interstate, which is |
| 488 | 01:45:20,970 --> 01:45:31,110 | the algorithm delivering price lower your exit ramp of entry onto that highway of lower prices may differ from the one I'm interested in, because I'm willing |
| 489 | 01:45:31,110 --> 01:45:41,880 | to go a little bit further out of the way. Or I may want to get in one earlier and risk traffic. Or you might get an exit to gets on the interstate, thinking |
| 490 | 01:45:41,880 --> 01:45:48,990 | you're gonna have an easy path and all of a sudden, everybody in the same time, just like on the holidays, decided to get on the interstate with you. And then |
| 491 | 01:45:48,990 --> 01:46:00,870 | you're stuck in a high resistance liquidity run. So it's a matter of personal perspective. What analogy do you like most, you know, whatever makes sense to |
| 492 | 01:46:00,870 --> 01:46:06,840 | you. And for some of you, you don't want to think there's an algorithm at all, and you think everything's buying and selling pressure, that's fine. As long as |
| 493 | 01:46:06,840 --> 01:46:12,360 | you're using everything I'm showing you here and how to find these levels and the logic behind it, you can believe the fairy tale that there isn't an |
| 494 | 01:46:12,360 --> 01:46:17,280 | algorithm that's fine, completely accepting the fact that you're all welcome here still. |
| 495 | 01:46:24,780 --> 01:46:42,810 | Well, folks, I just got the, the evil eye, she just picked her head in, let me know, son, you gotta get off that didn't have to say I know. I'm getting causing |
| 496 | 01:46:42,810 --> 01:46:53,340 | that now. So that's gonna be it for me this morning. Hopefully, you got something from it. Usefulness. And obviously, you can see there's a whole lot of |
| 497 | 01:46:53,340 --> 01:47:02,760 | lines on this chart. And I don't have these lines, okay, you in your back testing, you must have them. Because that's the only way you're going to be able |
| 498 | 01:47:02,760 --> 01:47:11,160 | to observe the things that I'm teaching you over time. Because you'll be able to toggle through different charts and timeframes, you're not going to be trading |
| 499 | 01:47:11,160 --> 01:47:19,500 | with just one timeframe. You can't look at just one timeframe and know everything you can't, you have to have an understanding of where certain things |
| 500 | 01:47:19,500 --> 01:47:32,130 | exist in price. That's what we're about 4128. So now watch the top of that fear Vega. I gotta be careful, I'm going to get myself in trouble. Remember, this is |
| 501 | 01:47:32,130 --> 01:47:40,680 | yesterday's closing price. So it's going to want to try to gravitate to that. And we've already moved down a nice movement down to that old low. I'm sorry, |
| 502 | 01:47:40,680 --> 01:47:51,240 | old high now. So this is a key level. Sell sides book building below that. Now I'll give you one thing to think about. If we can reprice up to this 4150 and a |
| 503 | 01:47:51,240 --> 01:48:02,670 | quarter level and say it breaks down, we have shift on market structure. They may attack this low later on in the day. So knowing only what I have in front of |
| 504 | 01:48:02,670 --> 01:48:10,500 | me right now, before I close up this chart, that would be a scenario that I would entertain that I would consider looking for an opportunity. And it's only |
| 505 | 01:48:10,500 --> 01:48:21,630 | going 42 Now, so that would be still something that could materialize even before the launch of our new. So something to study something to observe and go |
| 506 | 01:48:21,630 --> 01:48:29,250 | back through all this and the levels we walk through. You want to watch this video in live session a few times. Because there's a lot of things I've talked |
| 507 | 01:48:29,250 --> 01:48:37,500 | about that I'm sure when I was talking about at the time wasn't really resonating with you. It wasn't really making any sense. Remember all this price |
| 508 | 01:48:37,500 --> 01:48:49,710 | action in here. Remember, it was going back up to 4137 and a quarter, which is the midpoint in consequent encroachment in the old new week opening gap low. So |
| 509 | 01:48:49,710 --> 01:49:00,660 | this is the previous week's new week opening gap high consequent encroachment and the low that's what these levels are. We broke through and we stayed down |
| 510 | 01:49:00,660 --> 01:49:09,540 | the lower end, which is exactly what you want to see when you're bearish. It had no respect of wanting to go higher. Back to consequent question here. It was |
| 511 | 01:49:09,540 --> 01:49:19,560 | respecting what the 4137 and a quarter level. So what was happening here, why was it staying sideways like that? It was allowing smart money to accumulate |
| 512 | 01:49:19,560 --> 01:49:29,580 | what short positions, it's controlled. It's not a lack of buyers and a lack of sellers it's being controlled. This is all time distortion. There's a benefit of |
| 513 | 01:49:29,580 --> 01:49:41,250 | having Alright, she heard me going on again. All right, I'm not trying to get a divorce Good grief. What do you want 37 and a quarter level was being utilized |
| 514 | 01:49:41,280 --> 01:49:52,350 | as a reference point to see us trade lower and it went down through all of our levels in the fair value gap into the old unbalance from yesterday and into this |
| 515 | 01:49:52,350 --> 01:50:05,100 | here this old high here so it closed in all this inefficiency. What's This candle is high 4114 and three quarters was the low on this candle |
| 516 | 01:50:10,200 --> 01:50:25,170 | 4114 1414 and the higher this is yeah, so we went three quarters of a coin deeper into the sell completely closed in all this separation between this |
| 517 | 01:50:25,170 --> 01:50:37,740 | candle is high and that candles, love so that imbalance there is no longer open, it's been completely filled. So watch price at 4150 It may not get there, but |
| 518 | 01:50:37,740 --> 01:50:43,530 | that's what you won't be watching so it's 9:45am ending it. I'll talk to you tomorrow. Be safe |