ICT YT - 2023-02-12 - Market Review - February 12 2023
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-02-12 19:36
Outline
02:43 - The economic calendar for this week.
04:45 - Daily and weekly charts of the dollar.
08:36 - Where does the market open on Sunday?
14:14 - What is a short stubby wick?
20:54 - Order flow needs to be bearish -.
26:30 - What happens if the dollar goes higher and index futures drop?
29:37 - What’s going to happen before the CIPI?
34:33 - What is a liquidity void?
39:21 - How do the current market conditions relate to the entire spectrum of experience of a trader?
46:00 - Daily and weekly charts -.
50:10 - It’s easy to derail someone that already knows what they’re doing if you don’t believe that.
56:13 - Don’t lose sight of what chart you’re on.
59:35 - The importance of having a chart -.
01:06:39 - Hourly chart of the market.
01:12:04 - Why a gap opening below Friday’s close is not equal to the same expectation I would have had if a gap higher formed.
01:17:46 - Why you need to be sitting down with someone and explain why they’re doing what they are doing.
01:24:24 - The likelihood of a gap lower coming up.
Transcription
| 1 | 00:02:43,980 --> 00:02:52,260 | ICT: Good morning folks, how are you just waiting to see how much of a delay we have here and if my audio is working |
| 2 | 00:03:21,180 --> 00:03:44,730 | alright, about 20 some seconds on my end for a delay, but you should be seeing a economic calendar. This is the kind of days calendar and tomorrow is the day |
| 3 | 00:03:44,730 --> 00:03:59,640 | before CPI on Tuesday, this is the day that the markets gonna get wrecked it's gonna be a mess. So you want to be very, very careful and don't participate at |
| 4 | 00:03:59,640 --> 00:04:13,170 | all on Tuesday prior to CPI. Now after CPI hits you and there's nothing wrong with going in going after whatever remains in terms of liquidity or imbalances, |
| 5 | 00:04:13,170 --> 00:04:24,300 | but prior to you don't, you don't want to do that. Okay, you don't want to do that at all. So be mindful that for this week, and the rest of the week calendar |
| 6 | 00:04:24,300 --> 00:04:37,710 | I'll talk about that as we go via Twitter. But Monday is kind of light. And because it's ahead of CPI, our expectations are not terribly elevated because of |
| 7 | 00:04:37,770 --> 00:04:52,860 | the news driver that will be on Tuesday, which is usually a one shot right away. One way street just completely runs over top of the market. So just be careful |
| 8 | 00:04:52,860 --> 00:04:53,340 | with that |
| 9 | 00:04:59,100 --> 00:05:06,480 | okay, you shouldn't be Seeing the dollar index I'll wait until the live stream shows me that I'm actually on that chart with all of you |
| 10 | 00:05:33,840 --> 00:05:49,080 | Yeah, it's not showing me Chuck Give me one second when I checked otherwise this would have been very annoying Alright, so you should be seeing the dollar index |
| 11 | 00:05:49,080 --> 00:05:49,680 | chart now |
| 12 | 00:06:00,480 --> 00:06:01,590 | work in progress |
| 13 | 00:06:12,480 --> 00:06:14,520 | Okay, now we have the chart |
| 14 | 00:06:22,620 --> 00:06:25,350 | Alright, so we have a daily chart of the dollar index |
| 15 | 00:06:34,410 --> 00:06:35,910 | and here's the weekly chart |
| 16 | 00:06:45,900 --> 00:06:56,160 | now right away, one of the things I noticed, first glance with you is we have taken out a short term low. on the weekly chart of the dollar index, we have |
| 17 | 00:06:56,190 --> 00:07:06,330 | over left entirely the gap that's between this candles low in this candles high |
| 18 | 00:07:12,149 --> 00:07:24,089 | we have this large wick here. So midpoint of that you want to annotate that for consequent encouragement. So looks real close to this candles, opening, I'm just |
| 19 | 00:07:24,089 --> 00:07:30,989 | gonna be roughly eyeball it to around 104 point 80 to one or four point 85. |
| 20 | 00:07:40,290 --> 00:07:51,990 | I mentioned how we had I'm gonna try to keep my chart clean and just talk about specific price point. So that way, you can enter your own chart instead of just |
| 21 | 00:07:52,020 --> 00:08:02,160 | using my own Being content with that. I know some of you remain mad about that now. So we came back down inside this box that unbalanced outside inefficiency, |
| 22 | 00:08:02,250 --> 00:08:21,060 | this candle here. And we've already completely overlapped the weekly gap. So we have by side here. An old volume imbalance here. So this volume bounce, this |
| 23 | 00:08:21,060 --> 00:08:31,950 | buyside liquidity poll and the weekly consequent encouragement level on that weekly gap high. Those three levels are my premium arrays that I'm watching |
| 24 | 00:08:31,950 --> 00:08:49,050 | going forward for this week. The discount a raise for the dollar is the consequent encouragement of this wick here. Now, let me remind you, I do not |
| 25 | 00:08:49,050 --> 00:09:00,030 | know where the market opens on Sunday. No one does. That's a That's a complete mystery. So we all have to wait and see how the market itself starts. It's week, |
| 26 | 00:09:00,180 --> 00:09:11,160 | whatever that new opening price is on Sunday. That's when we have the data to start working with it. Right now we have no idea where it's gonna open. So I |
| 27 | 00:09:11,160 --> 00:09:22,890 | have to give my students and I have to record my observations, both premium and discount. I cannot frame a narrative. Now I'm going to share with you what I |
| 28 | 00:09:22,890 --> 00:09:32,070 | think might happen this week. Don't read that much into it because it's before Sunday's opening right now it's 10 minutes or not well, yeah, 10 minutes or so |
| 29 | 00:09:32,100 --> 00:09:46,140 | before 10am Sunday morning. So we have hours before the market actually opens up. But I'm hopefully inspiring you to look at both sides of premium and |
| 30 | 00:09:46,140 --> 00:09:55,710 | discount. And then when we open up, what do we gravitate towards? And then obviously keeping our expectations low on Monday because the CPI number that |
| 31 | 00:09:55,710 --> 00:10:03,390 | comes out on Tuesday. That's the real carnage. That's the that's the Move, there's going to do a lot of the violence. And I'll give you my opinion, what I |
| 32 | 00:10:03,390 --> 00:10:11,700 | think might happen. I've been wrong a lot with CPI, when I try to forecast what they're going to do beforehand. That's why I don't trade ahead of it. Because if |
| 33 | 00:10:11,700 --> 00:10:21,720 | I had a method to trust what it was going to do beforehand, look how fast it moves is typically moving anywhere between 50 to 100 plus handles when it's |
| 34 | 00:10:21,720 --> 00:10:31,320 | released. So when the market absorbs that CPI data, it's just like, wow, it goes and just immediately rips. And you don't want to be in that on the wrong side. |
| 35 | 00:10:31,320 --> 00:10:42,720 | So do not try to trade ahead of CPI, it will hurt you. So the discount rates for the market, which has been low market price, we're assuming, if you looked at |
| 36 | 00:10:42,720 --> 00:10:58,230 | the chart right now, and it was my data, market price, the closing price right here is 103 point 578. So below that price, we have this low for sell side |
| 37 | 00:10:58,230 --> 00:11:06,930 | liquidity, we had the buy side, imbalance sell side inefficiency, consequent encroachment, which would be here, which is also pretty much the consequent |
| 38 | 00:11:06,930 --> 00:11:17,580 | current of this wick the midpoint of that wick. Okay. And we have a volume imbalance down here. So make sure those are annotated on your chart going |
| 39 | 00:11:17,580 --> 00:11:31,440 | forward. As soon as the market opens up on Sunday, you're going to make a measurement of the midpoint between Friday's closing price. Wherever Sunday's |
| 40 | 00:11:31,440 --> 00:11:39,270 | closing prices, and the difference between the two. That's consequent encouragement for the new week opening gap, you'll do that for every market that |
| 41 | 00:11:39,270 --> 00:11:46,440 | you follow. If you're Forex, you're gonna be dealing with Dollar Index, and whatever forex pair you trade with, since I'm teaching predominantly with the |
| 42 | 00:11:46,440 --> 00:11:58,860 | medium of the E Mini s&p This year, we will be doing that with the opening price on Sunday in relationship to Friday's closing price on Emini, s&p, and then |
| 43 | 00:11:58,860 --> 00:12:09,960 | splitting that range in half. And in that in that entire range, there's three specific levels, we carry that all the way through to Friday's close. Because |
| 44 | 00:12:09,960 --> 00:12:19,830 | the markets going to refer back to it, as many of you already discovered, that's that's a true statement, it repeats. So there's a levels for Dollar Index unlike |
| 45 | 00:12:20,670 --> 00:12:22,080 | and we're going to go into Euro. |
| 46 | 00:12:28,500 --> 00:12:39,840 | So I kept some lipstick on this, and I didn't want to have it on there, I apologize. So you can see what we talked about before and the read the reactions |
| 47 | 00:12:39,840 --> 00:12:48,000 | there. Though by Salako report, they swept that target up into the Faraday gap I mentioned if we get above here, you can expand up into that go back and look at |
| 48 | 00:12:48,000 --> 00:12:57,540 | January's commentary on my YouTube channel. I can't edit it, I can't change it. I can't make it look good for me now. It's there. It's been there. We went up |
| 49 | 00:12:57,540 --> 00:13:09,390 | into here we broke down small little fare of a gap in here which we repriced, to here yesterday or Friday, rather, we have a nice displacement lower, you want to |
| 50 | 00:13:09,390 --> 00:13:19,470 | carry that range out. Because if we go through it and come back up, it may act as resistance, the low and the midpoint of a consequent encroachment, which is |
| 51 | 00:13:19,500 --> 00:13:34,170 | based on this candle right here that ninth of January 2023. So that daily candle is your fair value got on your daily timeframe. If we accelerate lower with |
| 52 | 00:13:34,170 --> 00:13:45,750 | higher dollar sales sides, the next draw on liquidity, you want to use the cursor on that wick as well. So it could come down here just fall short of it on |
| 53 | 00:13:45,750 --> 00:13:55,170 | assuming that I'm taking a great deal of liberty by saying if it does go lower because that's pretty much ARIA indicating what I'm expecting I'm expecting |
| 54 | 00:13:55,170 --> 00:14:09,420 | higher dollar I'm expecting you lower prices on other assets like equities and forex foreign currencies. So if we do break lower and we get this weakness |
| 55 | 00:14:11,520 --> 00:14:22,440 | midpoint of that wick right here. Consequent encroachment it could drop down there not take out that low. So in your notes anytime there is a short stubby |
| 56 | 00:14:22,440 --> 00:14:34,170 | little wick Okay, and what do I mean by that? It would look like a big the candle is here. Let me zoom in a little bit |
| 57 | 00:14:41,850 --> 00:14:53,670 | okay, see how long this candle is and how little the tail is a wick. That to me is a very short stubby little wick in relationship. How am I How am I basing |
| 58 | 00:14:53,970 --> 00:15:02,280 | whether a wick above a candle or below a candle is steady in short, it's relative to its candle Sighs from high to low. So that way, there's your |
| 59 | 00:15:02,280 --> 00:15:14,430 | reference point versus something like this. So you have a long wick. And it's majority of the entirety of the candle. See that. So in relationship, this tail, |
| 60 | 00:15:14,760 --> 00:15:22,800 | or wick on the low of the candle is short and stubby. And many times, you're going to find this is what you want to have in your journal. And in your study |
| 61 | 00:15:22,800 --> 00:15:35,730 | notes. Many times that type of low will get probed without going through it. And it'll stop at consequent encouragement for right there. So now we're getting a |
| 62 | 00:15:35,730 --> 00:15:46,440 | visual, what I'm referring to is a drop down, come right to it, or just below it a little bit, and then retrace, and then at a later time, come back down through |
| 63 | 00:15:46,440 --> 00:16:00,330 | it. Whereas a long wit, handle generally, if you're on the right direction. Number two, if you're looking at with like this, and you're bearish, many times, |
| 64 | 00:16:00,360 --> 00:16:09,570 | it'll go right to consequent encroachment and stop dead in its tracks and go the other way. Or, if it's really weak, it'll only go up like one quarter of the |
| 65 | 00:16:09,570 --> 00:16:20,520 | wick. Stop right there not even go to consequent encroachment. And in drop the instances that it does that very thing that is a real hardline indicator that |
| 66 | 00:16:20,520 --> 00:16:27,630 | you are in a very bearish market. Because generally you want to see the algorithm reprice back to consequent enrichment of a wick. If you're bearish, |
| 67 | 00:16:27,660 --> 00:16:37,740 | it's ended up very, very long wick like that. Costco encouragement was at the midpoint of the long lift gaps. They are their barriers, but they can't even |
| 68 | 00:16:37,740 --> 00:16:48,930 | reach that while you're bearish. And it goes to the quarter range of the entirety of that wick not not the full body high and low, where the wick is |
| 69 | 00:16:48,930 --> 00:17:00,300 | generated from the high down to in this case, if it has a higher closing candle, you'd be using that closing price too high. And those relationships will serve |
| 70 | 00:17:00,300 --> 00:17:11,730 | you well, if you go forward. The The other thing I want to teach about this morning for wicks is when you have a area where the candles create a wick, like |
| 71 | 00:17:11,730 --> 00:17:24,480 | for instance, like right here, see that the body comes down essentially to the Ophir Vega Hi, there. And then the next candle we open here, we trade back down |
| 72 | 00:17:24,480 --> 00:17:34,680 | to the body of the can, sorry, the opening, or the high end rather of the fear of a gap on this candle right here. I'm trying to be mindful of keeping my mouse |
| 73 | 00:17:34,680 --> 00:17:44,460 | still because apparently, when I'm talking, I'm talking in my mouse has already moved. So there's a little bit of a misalignment from the live streaming. So |
| 74 | 00:17:44,460 --> 00:17:55,920 | it's something I'm trying to make a conscious effort of remembering. But we have this wick on this small little down close candle right here. The next candle |
| 75 | 00:17:55,920 --> 00:18:09,330 | when it opens in trades up and comes back down. If we have this candle here, go up to what would be almost essentially the midpoint or consequent current of the |
| 76 | 00:18:09,330 --> 00:18:19,770 | next candle, we don't even know it is going to create this pattern. We don't know it. But should it form that generally you will see the consequent |
| 77 | 00:18:19,770 --> 00:18:27,570 | encroachment of that wick. If it's bearish, it won't reach it. And you can see that happening right here. I'm not cherry picking that I'm showing you to go |
| 78 | 00:18:27,570 --> 00:18:37,140 | into your chart. And you'll see that is the case, because this candle here is a precursor, then you get the actual wick here that's on the high. And when you |
| 79 | 00:18:37,140 --> 00:18:46,110 | see me sometimes taking live executions, and I'm entering trades, sometimes using that very criterion right there. And trusting that as I'm seeing the |
| 80 | 00:18:46,140 --> 00:18:54,540 | candle open and trade right after that point here. I'm trusting that it won't even go through consequent urgent. I'm not fearful of it, because it's that type |
| 81 | 00:18:54,540 --> 00:19:06,660 | of signature I'm looking for. That's kind of like justify the confidence behind the idea. Simon, we have the order block here. So that high which is a level |
| 82 | 00:19:06,690 --> 00:19:16,770 | already been shown here. Make sure your fair value gap is noted. So if we go through the low end of it, which is this candles high, so this candles high on |
| 83 | 00:19:16,800 --> 00:19:30,810 | January 6, if we trade through that the downside here I'm expecting the low of that rectangle which is the high of that candle here. And consequent |
| 84 | 00:19:30,810 --> 00:19:43,110 | encroachment, which is the midpoint between January tents low in January 6 high, so you would split that in half for consequent encouragement, so I wouldn't want |
| 85 | 00:19:43,110 --> 00:19:54,210 | to see it trade back above that level. If we go below it, leave that range and then come back in touch it here or go as deep as but preferably not the midpoint |
| 86 | 00:19:54,210 --> 00:20:08,400 | of that fairway get that shaded in blue. And then I would look for a run into this wick And for consequent encouragement. Now, if we do take out this low, go |
| 87 | 00:20:08,400 --> 00:20:16,410 | over here to the left, there's no imbalance in here. There's just a small little salsa liquidity pool here. There's really no balance in here. I'm sorry, no |
| 88 | 00:20:16,410 --> 00:20:27,840 | unbalanced here. Nothing in here, because this high is pretty much this low. This candles high is pretty much this candles low. There's no imbalance in here |
| 89 | 00:20:27,840 --> 00:20:38,010 | because this completely overlap this. So the next period of liquidity would be here, my interest would be there. So am I saying that it's going to be a |
| 90 | 00:20:38,010 --> 00:20:47,400 | straight crash down there? No. But I'm thinking if we do get below this, and we start respecting all of the premium arrays, and anything that would be |
| 91 | 00:20:47,400 --> 00:20:55,980 | considered bullish, keeps getting broken to the downside, which is what institutional order flow entry is all about. We want to be looking for those |
| 92 | 00:20:55,980 --> 00:21:09,180 | types of things supporting it. So order flow needs the bearish in what I taught on what day it was I was teaching, it was in the Twitter space yesterday, or I'm |
| 93 | 00:21:09,180 --> 00:21:21,210 | talking about order flow. The when you're going lower in price, and you're expecting it to deliver to a discount, objective or target, you're looking for |
| 94 | 00:21:21,210 --> 00:21:31,350 | up close candles to provide resistance in any fair value gap, really keep price at bay from going higher. And you want to see the low of the fair value gap or |
| 95 | 00:21:31,350 --> 00:21:40,740 | consequent encroachment be the defining boundary for any kind of retracements. And then once it gets to those levels, you want to see that it's sharply moves |
| 96 | 00:21:40,740 --> 00:21:49,830 | away with with speed, it doesn't like to hang around there. If you have those signatures, while you're watching price print lower, you are watching a sell |
| 97 | 00:21:49,830 --> 00:22:00,510 | program deliver an order flow is bearish. You don't need trend lines, moving averages, depth of market ladders, volume profile, none of that stuff, you don't |
| 98 | 00:22:00,510 --> 00:22:11,100 | need any of it. And you're just reading the actual high low and close price in the feed that's being delivered real time. So we could be seeing a surge in |
| 99 | 00:22:11,100 --> 00:22:19,350 | dollar, we could be seeing a decline in foreign currencies and equities. There's a lot of saber rattling. And I'm not going to talk too much about what I mean by |
| 100 | 00:22:19,350 --> 00:22:27,030 | that. But if you just look at the headlines, certain countries are making pretty bold claims about what they're gonna do in retaliation to certain things that |
| 101 | 00:22:27,180 --> 00:22:39,000 | other countries have done or implying that they have done. That is a cause for concern. And that's going to cause what a risk off scenario. Risk off means it's |
| 102 | 00:22:39,000 --> 00:22:48,990 | going to be a flight to quality and I'll let you come to conclusion if you think the dollar is going. But generally what that means is risk off is the dollar |
| 103 | 00:22:49,020 --> 00:23:02,580 | gets bought up. So higher prices and dollar will pressure foreign currencies. So even if you have a bicycle in forex, pairs for equities, or index futures, in |
| 104 | 00:23:02,580 --> 00:23:10,680 | those conditions, where dollars rallying, it's real hard for those markets to get traction, they might rally against it for a short period of time intraday, |
| 105 | 00:23:11,490 --> 00:23:20,520 | but it's usually short lived. And then finally it'll just be like a wilt and it goes the other direction in relationship to the higher dollar. Everything else |
| 106 | 00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:30,390 | usually drops in is that teeter totter effect, one goes up, the other goes down. So it's a back and forth type of balance. But don't think that it can in |
| 107 | 00:23:30,450 --> 00:23:41,130 | intraday price action move in tandem for a very brief period of time, which can be confusing for a new trader, or someone that's expecting it to be lockstep |
| 108 | 00:23:41,580 --> 00:23:51,060 | where every little tick up in the dollar sees every little tick lower in index futures or equities or Forex. Sometimes you'll have that little crack in the |
| 109 | 00:23:51,060 --> 00:23:58,470 | correlation, where it can be confusing, which is why you want to have intermarket relationships and analysis in your trading. Like I don't trade the |
| 110 | 00:23:58,470 --> 00:24:11,490 | Dow, I can't stand that. I can't stand the index. It's just too spotty. It's I don't like okay, it tends to overreact. More sporadically. Then, the NASDAQ or |
| 111 | 00:24:11,490 --> 00:24:20,130 | NASDAQ can overreact and overdeliver versus the ES, s&p, s&p 10 tends to be much more smoother, more. |
| 112 | 00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:32,850 | well controlled. Let's put it that way smoother, doesn't have as much erratic over exaggerations and price. Dow can be like that. But also you can do things |
| 113 | 00:24:33,060 --> 00:24:44,550 | in ranges and chop around before moving in tandem with n q and or Yes. So that's the number one reason why I get asked a lot. Why not want to trade that one. |
| 114 | 00:24:44,580 --> 00:24:53,700 | It's because it has its specific characteristics that I don't favor. You might like that. You might be able to trade in doubt and because you're hearing me say |
| 115 | 00:24:53,700 --> 00:25:01,680 | I don't like it. If you're successful trading and don't don't change. Don't let me influence something that's already working for you. If I'm answering a |
| 116 | 00:25:01,680 --> 00:25:11,400 | question and I don't want to be crucified for my opinion, and or the reasons and decisions, why I do something or don't do something with a particular market |
| 117 | 00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:22,410 | like crypto, I have no interest in it. So I try to be as hard and bold about not liking it so that way people don't ask me, because I get asked all the time, |
| 118 | 00:25:22,890 --> 00:25:31,380 | like, synthetic indices, I don't know anything about them. I've never had any experience with them. And I don't know how the nifty 50 in the in the Indian |
| 119 | 00:25:31,380 --> 00:25:39,120 | markets, I don't know anything about them. So I have no experience. So I won't talk on it, because I don't have any experience. But the things I do have |
| 120 | 00:25:39,120 --> 00:25:48,480 | experience, I'll share my opinion with you. But I think that we may be seeing, because of all the things that's going on, and we're talking about E T coming |
| 121 | 00:25:48,480 --> 00:26:03,270 | now. Foo Fighters are all over the place getting shut down. The there's a lot of weird stuff coming out. And the more heavier factor is, obviously, why are you |
| 122 | 00:26:03,270 --> 00:26:15,720 | paying attention. And you need to be mindful that because it's going to have an impact on a market, every market. So real quick, I'll do GDP and then we'll get |
| 123 | 00:26:15,720 --> 00:26:31,080 | into the business with ES. Alright, so here is POUND DOLLAR. And let's assume for a moment that I'm correct. I don't know if I'm going to be correct. And you |
| 124 | 00:26:31,080 --> 00:26:41,520 | shouldn't assume that I'm going to be by you by default. But let's assume for a moment that dollar does in fact, go higher, and CPI number causes the dollar the |
| 125 | 00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:56,940 | rage higher, and index futures to drop hard for forex pairs to draw up hard against the higher dollar that would, in my mind, lead to a potential run on |
| 126 | 00:26:56,940 --> 00:27:06,240 | cable below this low and below the sell side here. We have this imbalance here that we didn't come all the way up into I liked that I liked the fact that we |
| 127 | 00:27:06,240 --> 00:27:16,590 | couldn't even come back to this old low. Remember what I was saying earlier about the the relationships of the wicks in the candles when they fail to reach |
| 128 | 00:27:16,920 --> 00:27:26,190 | the midpoint of the wick. And they're like it's a it's a high, for instance, something like this, okay, you're looking at that type of candle. And if you're |
| 129 | 00:27:26,190 --> 00:27:36,000 | bearish and the next candle tries to get up here, but fails to get to even the midpoint of it, which is constantly encroachment. That indicates that you're |
| 130 | 00:27:36,000 --> 00:27:48,480 | really bearish. And the same when I look at a gap like this sell side and bounce by certain efficiency, which is a fair value gap. By by classification the PD |
| 131 | 00:27:48,480 --> 00:28:02,340 | array is very agar. What kind of fair agar B cell side imbalance by side inefficiency. Si BI is what I usually abbreviate it in my charts. Its sell side |
| 132 | 00:28:02,790 --> 00:28:13,200 | imbalance that means it's all one sided one big candle going down. It's lacking efficiency. On the buy side. In other words, it needs to be offered at a later |
| 133 | 00:28:13,200 --> 00:28:28,650 | time with movement higher buy price. The difference between this candles low and this candles high frames that Sibi the sell side of balanced by sun and |
| 134 | 00:28:28,650 --> 00:28:42,210 | efficiency, the market tends to want to reprice back up into the range and as far as the previous candles low. If we see something like this, I liked that I |
| 135 | 00:28:42,210 --> 00:28:53,160 | like to see it in my intraday charts and put the amount in my intraday charts for my intraday trades. And it's just what I'm expecting to see price do. I like |
| 136 | 00:28:53,160 --> 00:29:04,560 | the fact that we did this here. But we have to be mindful because we went simply below this, Thursday's low, and we closed pretty much right at it. Or let's look |
| 137 | 00:29:04,560 --> 00:29:18,660 | at the difference here. The low is 1.20572. And the close. Yeah, we're just above the close. But essentially, almost the close is just a little bit above |
| 138 | 00:29:18,660 --> 00:29:28,410 | the high. I mean, the low tech of this candle here. I would have been warning you saying that we closed down below it. And that doesn't necessarily mean it's |
| 139 | 00:29:28,410 --> 00:29:37,800 | going to be immediately lower. Because I see this and this is what you want to write down your notes to be very careful about what I'm about to say. Because |
| 140 | 00:29:37,800 --> 00:29:48,930 | I'm giving my opinion. And it's before Sunday's gap before Sunday's opening. I don't know if there's going to be a gap it can open relatively unchanged. And |
| 141 | 00:29:48,930 --> 00:29:58,800 | that would be expected frankly, because CPI is on Tuesday. And the markets going to be not terribly interested in doing the whole lot before that because that's |
| 142 | 00:29:58,830 --> 00:30:11,190 | the main event. That's the big Big Ticket event for this week CPI, everybody knows that's been trading that CPI is that tornado, it's that tsunami, it's the |
| 143 | 00:30:13,470 --> 00:30:22,440 | weapon of mass destruction, where the market just simply gets destroyed immediately. And anyone that's in the wrong side of the marketplace will get |
| 144 | 00:30:22,440 --> 00:30:35,340 | hurt. So because I'm expecting that carnage on Tuesday, like every other trader is, Monday's trading probably will not be all that eventful. I could be wrong. |
| 145 | 00:30:36,270 --> 00:30:45,780 | But I don't suspect there's gonna be a whole lot of movement ahead of CPI. Can you trade on Monday, I believe you can. But I don't want you to think massive |
| 146 | 00:30:45,780 --> 00:30:52,380 | big range unless they start shooting down all kinds of foo fighters. And it's all over the news that it's probably gonna cause all kinds of weird stuff to |
| 147 | 00:30:52,380 --> 00:31:05,820 | happen then. But, and I'm being obviously facetious when I'm saying that. But if we're expecting lower prices, the best signature on Sunday's opening would be a |
| 148 | 00:31:05,820 --> 00:31:18,630 | gap, lower opening, and then a rally back up into it overnight or into Monday morning. And then does it show a willingness to want to go lower? If it does |
| 149 | 00:31:18,630 --> 00:31:32,610 | that, and we're, we're leaving, like, intraday lows on Monday that are relatively equal. And then we roll into Tuesday in his relative equal lows are |
| 150 | 00:31:32,610 --> 00:31:46,350 | still there, on Tuesday ahead of CPI, that I'm going to feel further emboldened that that's where CPI is going to rush through, and then dig into something like |
| 151 | 00:31:46,350 --> 00:31:58,110 | this, this low here, causing $1 Higher, and pound getting wiped out below that low rate there would at large range on Tuesday. So that's what I'm doing |
| 152 | 00:31:58,110 --> 00:32:08,730 | generally on Sundays, not not Sundays, I usually do my analysis on Friday nights late. Or, really, really early on Saturday before everyone wakes up. And I'm not |
| 153 | 00:32:08,730 --> 00:32:16,080 | spending as much time as I'm doing. It talks. It takes more time for me to talk and articulate how I think, which is why you're listening to me as much as |
| 154 | 00:32:16,080 --> 00:32:24,180 | sometimes you guys complain about my new job owning and going on and on and on. I have to justify why I'm saying what I'm saying. Because if I don't I have 1000 |
| 155 | 00:32:24,180 --> 00:32:31,470 | questions, and then people email me and he texts me and they send me messages through TradingView. And they're, they're angry, you're not answering my |
| 156 | 00:32:31,470 --> 00:32:39,150 | questions. And I take that to heart I don't I don't want to come across as someone that's not willing to answer your questions, but I'm only one person. So |
| 157 | 00:32:39,150 --> 00:32:48,120 | I try to do as much as I can, in my dialogue, to try to circumvent the need for you to want to raise your hand for a question. Because 90% of time you're going |
| 158 | 00:32:48,120 --> 00:32:55,050 | to hear your question that you have, if you write it down in your journal, it will get answered in the normal process of going through now that we're doing it |
| 159 | 00:32:55,110 --> 00:33:02,280 | daily, and we're doing it live now, chances are you're going to get the immediate feedback that you're looking for you you just have to be patient, it's |
| 160 | 00:33:02,280 --> 00:33:09,660 | not imperative that you get your your question answered right now, as much as you feel like it needs to be answered when you have it. You don't nothing is |
| 161 | 00:33:09,660 --> 00:33:18,210 | that sensitive that you need to know, right now. Okay, it's better for you to adopt a mind set and patience, forge that patience and discipline, because |
| 162 | 00:33:18,210 --> 00:33:24,330 | you're not going to get the immediate feedback you're looking for when you take your trades. So you might not condition yourself for that. Okay, I might be a |
| 163 | 00:33:24,330 --> 00:33:24,900 | source of |
| 164 | 00:33:26,250 --> 00:33:32,940 | frustration right now. But the markets gonna provide you even more frustration, because you're showing you're impatient. And when you put a trade on, it's not |
| 165 | 00:33:32,940 --> 00:33:40,830 | moving for you in your favor, you're going to feel that same impatience, but it's gonna be worse because your money's on the line. Whereas right now, you're |
| 166 | 00:33:40,830 --> 00:33:50,730 | learning, you're not trying to risk any money right now, which is the best way of learning. So I'm looking for, in my mind, a lower gap opening on Sunday. But |
| 167 | 00:33:50,730 --> 00:34:02,820 | because of this is important to write this down, because CPI is the big event on Tuesday, it isn't really needed to see a big gap lower opening, it might be |
| 168 | 00:34:02,820 --> 00:34:11,490 | relatively close to where we closed on Friday, indicating what when I see that if I see that, then I think that Monday will be really quiet. And we're going to |
| 169 | 00:34:11,490 --> 00:34:19,740 | be waiting for CPI. And that's a reasonable forecast. That's something that anybody technically would reasonably expect to see in price and why I just |
| 170 | 00:34:19,740 --> 00:34:32,220 | explained it. But now watch what happens. If we see a gap lower, that's big. That creates a really good trading opportunity for Monday, even though that big |
| 171 | 00:34:32,220 --> 00:34:45,150 | event is on Tuesday. Why do I say that? Because the disparate the difference between where we closed on Friday, and where we got open on Sunday, if that's a |
| 172 | 00:34:45,150 --> 00:34:57,060 | large gap. On Monday morning, there will be a tendency for that market to want to rally up into the range that's created by the gap difference of Friday's |
| 173 | 00:34:57,060 --> 00:35:08,130 | closing price here. And where we open. And we're actually talking about s&p One, while I'm looking at the British pound, but it's okay, it's fine. Because even |
| 174 | 00:35:08,130 --> 00:35:18,060 | though they are different, they're going to trade sometimes very similarly, because of risk on risk off factors. So while we won't necessarily see the gap, |
| 175 | 00:35:18,630 --> 00:35:28,710 | the same way we would see in s&p, because if you toggle in, I'll show you when we get to the s&p. But there's no way of toggling, like regular hours and |
| 176 | 00:35:28,710 --> 00:35:39,030 | electronic hours. For Forex, it's always the same thing. Once we start trading on Sunday, until we close on Friday, it's all continuous delivery. So you have |
| 177 | 00:35:39,030 --> 00:35:49,620 | to look at gaps in separations between trading sessions differently. And I'll teach you more about that as we go through this year. But if there's a gap in |
| 178 | 00:35:49,650 --> 00:36:01,440 | ies, like I taught you last week, and my private members are aware of this is how I teach the indices market, you need to be considering what we did the |
| 179 | 00:36:01,440 --> 00:36:13,470 | previous session, how we closed and where we opened at 930. Because that difference, that is a real liquidity void. Write that in your notes. Okay, that |
| 180 | 00:36:14,130 --> 00:36:28,920 | PV array that opens at New Day, and at new week, they are liquidity voids, because there's no trading that took place at all. So the answer the latter |
| 181 | 00:36:28,920 --> 00:36:36,120 | question I've been getting, what are those? You know, they're they're named, obviously, new week opening gap, which is the difference between Friday's |
| 182 | 00:36:36,120 --> 00:36:46,710 | closing price and Sunday's opening. Regardless, if it's a higher opening on Sunday or lower than Friday's close the difference, whatever that is, that's new |
| 183 | 00:36:46,710 --> 00:37:01,890 | week opening gap as a pdra. A very specific element of price delivery. It is a liquidity void, a real liquidity void. This right here has been, unfortunately, |
| 184 | 00:37:01,920 --> 00:37:11,580 | labeled inappropriately as a liquidity void. And I've used it because of the people that were talking to me on baby pips, they use that term and without me |
| 185 | 00:37:11,670 --> 00:37:22,860 | trying to confuse them, I just went okay, well, we'll just call it what you call it. But it's not. It's not a void. There was buying and selling in here. There |
| 186 | 00:37:22,860 --> 00:37:33,000 | absolutely was buying and selling. Even though it was a down close candle, what it is, is it's a sell side imbalance, which means it was primarily too much of |
| 187 | 00:37:33,000 --> 00:37:42,570 | one sidedness going lower. So the algorithm will want to reprice to offer fair value by going back up like it does here. The fact that we didn't come all the |
| 188 | 00:37:42,570 --> 00:37:54,990 | way back up to that area here and close into this candles low to me indicates that that is weak, decisively weak, because of the same characteristic that I |
| 189 | 00:37:54,990 --> 00:38:06,150 | taught you with the wicks. If we can't climb up to the midpoint of a wick above a candle, and we're bearish. That is extremely indicative of a lower moving |
| 190 | 00:38:06,660 --> 00:38:14,490 | market. So it's those types of things that I'm weighing as each candle is forming. And you'll hear me talk about when we're doing live streams, I'll say, |
| 191 | 00:38:14,490 --> 00:38:22,560 | this is interesting to me. This is what I'm wanting to see, I don't want to see these types of things. If I say something like, Okay, we I don't want to see |
| 192 | 00:38:22,560 --> 00:38:31,110 | that right there. That's not surprise, that's not me, afraid that the market makers are gonna move on me. That's not me thinking, Oh, they just met these |
| 193 | 00:38:31,110 --> 00:38:41,070 | changed the algorithm? Is this something I don't want to see this right now in the context of what I'm looking for. And I have to see it, have a resolution to |
| 194 | 00:38:41,070 --> 00:38:49,920 | that immediately. And it'll make more sense as you watch me do more of it. But I'm not ever looking at pricing. Oh, my goodness, where did that come from? |
| 195 | 00:38:50,130 --> 00:38:58,200 | That's always a possibility. When you're reading price, I'm never going to be surprised or shocked. Now. I wouldn't be. I wouldn't be if we were in a market |
| 196 | 00:38:58,200 --> 00:39:09,390 | and I'm expecting price to deliver like it normally would. And for a non CPI day. And it creates a CPI run out of nowhere. Boom, that's a Black Swan, then |
| 197 | 00:39:09,390 --> 00:39:19,830 | you will hear me say what the Yeah, it'll I'll go off the rails. Because it would be completely unexpected if we completely untradable. But barring those |
| 198 | 00:39:19,830 --> 00:39:28,980 | instances, which is always a risk. That's why I tell you all to learn how to do some demo, I never encourage you to come to a live count. Because those very |
| 199 | 00:39:28,980 --> 00:39:37,950 | instances are what we're moving into. We're gonna get we're going into very hard times and the market right now, you're learning how to do this in the most |
| 200 | 00:39:37,950 --> 00:39:51,900 | difficult time. Do you know someone other than me? That is a online personality that's a trader if they've been trading longer than the last three years, ask |
| 201 | 00:39:51,900 --> 00:40:00,630 | them what their opinion of what the market conditions are right now. And how does it relate over the entire spectrum of their experience as a trader If |
| 202 | 00:40:00,630 --> 00:40:10,560 | they're honest, and if they've been trading for a long time, I guarantee you, they're gonna tell you this. These markets right now are very, very difficult. |
| 203 | 00:40:10,920 --> 00:40:21,150 | It's not because they are myself, or poor as a technician or a trader, it's very difficult right now. And for a new student coming in, you have no appreciation |
| 204 | 00:40:21,150 --> 00:40:30,030 | of that, you have no appreciation for what it takes for someone to be able to sit over the charts with you, whether it be me or anyone else, and convey with a |
| 205 | 00:40:30,030 --> 00:40:39,660 | great deal conviction, what the markets likely to do, because we are working very diligently to try to come to the conclusion of what these markets are |
| 206 | 00:40:39,660 --> 00:40:51,420 | trying to arrive at. And I've made no made no bones about it, I've been very candid about it. In fact, I've dialed my trading back. So far, it's I've not |
| 207 | 00:40:51,450 --> 00:41:07,380 | I've not had this little bit of engagement. Since we started all this stuff in 2020 2020 caused me to put the brakes on a lot and slow down a lot. So to keep |
| 208 | 00:41:07,380 --> 00:41:18,720 | myself engaged and not lose my focus in my the fact that effectiveness as a technician, I'm working with you. As a community, I'm showing you what my |
| 209 | 00:41:18,720 --> 00:41:27,600 | analysis is calling for. I'm doing executions, I'm doing live streams, now I'm calling every individual one minute candle. So it keeps me focused, because if I |
| 210 | 00:41:27,600 --> 00:41:36,570 | spend too much time away, which was what my concern was, and why I stayed continuous through the holiday break, too. Because I know these markets are very |
| 211 | 00:41:36,570 --> 00:41:48,060 | difficult. And at least I'm staying very close to the rhythm of what it's doing. If I stayed away for two weeks or so, I would be rusty, I'd be like a boxer that |
| 212 | 00:41:48,060 --> 00:41:56,940 | hadn't been in the ring for a couple of months or up to a year, you don't want to get hit by that guy. But someone that's been active, they're going to be more |
| 213 | 00:41:57,540 --> 00:42:06,630 | reactive to their punching in be able to slip their punches. And you don't want to have that kind of ring rust, especially trying to do this on the live stream. |
| 214 | 00:42:07,140 --> 00:42:22,770 | Saying I say all that to say that I do believe that CPI is going to be probably a instigation to the higher dollar and a lower factor for like, index futures, |
| 215 | 00:42:22,860 --> 00:42:30,150 | stocks and forex. That's my opinion right now, that can absolutely change based on what we do on Sundays opening. |
| 216 | 00:42:31,650 --> 00:42:42,270 | I mean, we could see something happen between now and Sunday is opening that causes a geopolitical war time response, you know, and everything that just |
| 217 | 00:42:42,270 --> 00:42:50,430 | said, is completely undermined, which would mean nothing, because I'm not trading on Sunday. So these are all things that you need to be aware of. And |
| 218 | 00:42:50,430 --> 00:42:57,150 | some of you are coming into this thinking that you need to know, and you must know, otherwise you don't know what you're doing or right, or I or anyone else |
| 219 | 00:42:57,150 --> 00:43:06,060 | doesn't know they're doing. If we can't predict the opening price on Sunday, no one can do that. So stop placing that emphasis on you, as a student learning how |
| 220 | 00:43:06,060 --> 00:43:13,590 | to do this because the markets are not going to be consistent in that regard, you have no idea where they're going to open, just as well as I don't know where |
| 221 | 00:43:13,590 --> 00:43:22,680 | they're going to open it up at six o'clock every weekday, when we have that one hour closed between 5pm New York local time, when index futures stock trading, |
| 222 | 00:43:22,740 --> 00:43:32,670 | and when they reopen at six o'clock, I have no idea what price they're gonna open up at. Now I can teach you as you'll learn how they're likely to gap lower |
| 223 | 00:43:32,670 --> 00:43:42,090 | or gap at higher. But I don't know what price they're going to open it up at. And I don't know what the immediate response is going to be when they open it |
| 224 | 00:43:42,090 --> 00:43:50,190 | because it could be open with a gap lower and then run away real quick and leave the gap opening for a day. There's nothing saying that it has to repeat back up |
| 225 | 00:43:50,190 --> 00:43:57,810 | to not repeat, but reprice back up to that gap until immediately. But some of you are thinking certainly because there's a gap. Oh, what's it immediately, |
| 226 | 00:43:57,810 --> 00:44:04,770 | let's go right there. That's not how it works, either. There's a lot of things that you have to weigh out. And that's what makes this difficult as an educator |
| 227 | 00:44:04,770 --> 00:44:15,000 | because knowing what you are expecting already know, 90% of the questions you're gonna ask as soon as I say something, or before I say it, that's why I pause. |
| 228 | 00:44:15,570 --> 00:44:27,090 | I'll take a deep breath, because I'm taking in from experience. I know what I want to say. But I also know by experience, when I say certain things 50 |
| 229 | 00:44:27,090 --> 00:44:38,910 | questions are going to mount up in your mind because because of what I'm saying or did not say in that sentence. So I tried to be very inclusive, in my delivery |
| 230 | 00:44:38,910 --> 00:44:48,900 | of whatever I'm talking about. And I'm trying to be very careful and think about the words I'm saying so because I don't want to waste my time. As much as I feel |
| 231 | 00:44:48,900 --> 00:44:58,050 | like most of you that are impatient feel like I'm wasting yours when I'm doing these types of deliveries. I'm trying to be thorough. I'm respecting your time |
| 232 | 00:44:58,050 --> 00:45:12,660 | and attention and giving You every facet, what my experience within the context of every response or lecture. And that's what you would want not some lazy, half |
| 233 | 00:45:12,660 --> 00:45:20,820 | ass approach to Well, you do this, you do that and you should know how to do it after I've done it said one time. That's that's inefficient. As an educator, I |
| 234 | 00:45:20,820 --> 00:45:29,010 | wouldn't be satisfied with that. I would want someone that wants to explain things in the minut details and the little subtle nuances that go along with it. |
| 235 | 00:45:29,010 --> 00:45:39,420 | And because if I give you a delivery about an idea or concept, just look at the comments. Immediately. Why don't you look at this? And what makes you think that |
| 236 | 00:45:39,420 --> 00:45:48,600 | when would you not want to do that? And that's why I talk a great deal about one thing, and I build on the reasonable questions that I know are going to come as |
| 237 | 00:45:48,600 --> 00:45:57,960 | a response to me saying something. And you want to have that from your teachers, whether it be in trading or anything else, you want to know everything that |
| 238 | 00:45:57,960 --> 00:46:02,040 | they're willing to share? And that's all I'm trying to do. So let's go over to yes. |
| 239 | 00:46:09,420 --> 00:46:14,880 | Alright, so there's the daily chart. And some of you're probably thinking, Well, why don't you go into lower timeframes? Number one, I don't have four hours to |
| 240 | 00:46:14,880 --> 00:46:27,810 | do today. And I know a lot of you are already that your potato chips and drink your beer and yell at the screaming about guys thrown around a piece of rawhide |
| 241 | 00:46:27,810 --> 00:46:38,100 | and hurt themselves. Want to predict predetermined outcome because there's so much money on this game in Vegas. But that's another discussion. It's rigged. So |
| 242 | 00:46:39,360 --> 00:46:47,250 | if we look at the dollar, I'm sorry, the daily chart of the E Mini s&p here. Let's go. Let's just go up to the weekly chart. |
| 243 | 00:46:53,160 --> 00:47:04,800 | All right, so we have a swing high that's formed. After taking up this high, excuse me, we did go above these relative equal highs, which is what I mentioned |
| 244 | 00:47:04,800 --> 00:47:17,280 | was the draw on liquidity. When we were down here, we ran up through that here on Thursday. We challenged it on Friday. And they said not not anymore today. So |
| 245 | 00:47:17,280 --> 00:47:29,340 | we had a little bit softer close on Friday. We could not get down quit encroachment of this daily candles wick noted that note that, okay? So on your |
| 246 | 00:47:29,370 --> 00:47:40,860 | daily chart, you're going to have these levels and carry them down into your lower timeframe charts. I'm going to allow you to elect whatever colors in |
| 247 | 00:47:40,860 --> 00:47:47,970 | thickness, and I'm not trying to influence that. Because when you do your own annotations, and you do your own charting, you need to bring your own |
| 248 | 00:47:47,970 --> 00:47:58,500 | personality to it. Stop trying to mimic me, what's your colors, what's your candle Color Settings, be original. Let it let it be a manifestation of your own |
| 249 | 00:47:58,530 --> 00:48:09,120 | individual personality, you will enjoy it more versus being trying to me me trying to pressure you into a mold. Copy me, I don't want a copy of me. I'm |
| 250 | 00:48:09,150 --> 00:48:17,550 | interested in seeing how you take this information and become your own trader. And I would love for you to be doing what I'm doing now. And I can listen to you |
| 251 | 00:48:17,610 --> 00:48:25,920 | and watch you grow as a trader. Like I want to see that in my students. Some of you don't want to do that. That's fine. I'm not encouraging the ones that don't |
| 252 | 00:48:25,920 --> 00:48:36,420 | want to do it. On the saying that I I like seeing the independent thought process of all traders, not anybody that's always a student of mine. I like like |
| 253 | 00:48:36,420 --> 00:48:48,210 | that guy. Pat Whelan, I like new trades by Matt, I like Tom Hougaard, I like you just about anybody be willing to live stream, if they're willing to put a |
| 254 | 00:48:48,210 --> 00:48:55,350 | climate there. I like watching because I want to see how they think, well in your annotation, do you want to bring that to your charts the same way your own |
| 255 | 00:48:55,350 --> 00:49:03,390 | approach to doing it your color scheme, the way you annotate where you put your notes, what you're looking for, I'm going to share the levels that I'm looking |
| 256 | 00:49:03,390 --> 00:49:15,630 | at here. And I review this as these are key to me going forward. If you have other levels, besides the ones I'm showing, don't erase them. They're pertinent |
| 257 | 00:49:15,630 --> 00:49:25,680 | to you what you're observing, the trades that I'm going to see and take this week may not be the ones that you take, and you would be terribly misguided by |
| 258 | 00:49:25,680 --> 00:49:38,430 | me. If I said, only try to do what you're seeing me do. So in your annotations, just at least have what I'm showing you in addition to whatever else you see |
| 259 | 00:49:38,430 --> 00:49:47,730 | that is useful to you. You may be observing something that you need to see subconsciously have a effect on price action and then when it happens, or |
| 260 | 00:49:47,730 --> 00:49:57,120 | doesn't happen, that moment of insight that you don't know how you're going to respond to maybe that very thing that epiphany that puts your understanding |
| 261 | 00:49:57,120 --> 00:50:05,190 | about what it is you're looking to do as a trader right to the point where now you know what you're looking for. So I'm trying to be very careful not to |
| 262 | 00:50:05,190 --> 00:50:17,220 | undermine normal, creative development. Because it's easy. It's very, very easy for me to derail someone that already knows what they're doing. And if you don't |
| 263 | 00:50:17,220 --> 00:50:25,830 | believe that, if you're on Twitter right now, if you have been affected by me talking about my opinion, while you're in a trade or about to take a trade, and |
| 264 | 00:50:25,830 --> 00:50:33,570 | then your trade would have panned out, if you just would have ignored what I said, say, I saw that I experienced that, it doesn't mean that I'm less of a |
| 265 | 00:50:33,570 --> 00:50:43,380 | trader, or I'm better than a trader or either viewer, it just means that you don't want to have any one. Me at the top of the list to influence anything that |
| 266 | 00:50:43,380 --> 00:50:53,880 | you're testing out. Anything that you're trying to do case studies on real time, walk forwards, you don't want that to ever be skewed. And I don't want to be a |
| 267 | 00:50:53,880 --> 00:51:01,920 | detriment of your development. So if anything in your annotations that you're doing is different from what I'm going to have to show you. And yes, this is |
| 268 | 00:51:01,920 --> 00:51:11,220 | important. Stop bitching, because I'm just I'm gonna get on with it. This is important. These are that struggling points, that real students that trade with |
| 269 | 00:51:11,220 --> 00:51:18,960 | real money now sometimes have that impact by by me saying something or if I'm pulling up a level, they second guess themselves, I said, Well, maybe it's not |
| 270 | 00:51:18,990 --> 00:51:26,190 | what I should be looking at, because it didn't mention that. And they're in a trade, they're actually they have money on the line. And that now subconsciously |
| 271 | 00:51:26,220 --> 00:51:33,780 | affected their ability to hold on to that trade. Not because I don't, I don't even know they're in the tree, I'm just giving you my opinion, which is why I |
| 272 | 00:51:33,780 --> 00:51:45,720 | constantly remind all of you as students and viewers, you can use my concepts and be trading a different direction in the same instrument, and we both can be |
| 273 | 00:51:45,720 --> 00:51:57,570 | profitable. It doesn't sound possible, but it is just like that. And you won't experience that until you get well rounded. And you have your own experience of |
| 274 | 00:51:57,570 --> 00:52:06,660 | being a founder and setups and you say, well, wow, he did that today, referring to me. And you did something entirely different. And we both saw outcomes that |
| 275 | 00:52:06,660 --> 00:52:20,010 | were positive. But if you are affected by me, in my analysis, or my key levels, just keep what you trust in your charts, but don't negate having what I'm going |
| 276 | 00:52:20,010 --> 00:52:29,190 | to show you that's on its own saying, okay, at least have this much. Anything additional is just for your own observation. And that's wonderful. I don't need |
| 277 | 00:52:29,190 --> 00:52:35,610 | you to share that with me. Okay, I get a lot of questions by people tweeting to me, what do you think about this, that I do this right, that I do that? What's |
| 278 | 00:52:35,610 --> 00:52:48,630 | the outcome? Was the outcome favorable? You need me to tell you that was a good thing. If it's good, it's good. I mean, it's simple. Don't rely on me or anyone |
| 279 | 00:52:48,630 --> 00:52:58,350 | else to cosign your observations, you need to be confident and trust, the fact that you're doing this on your own, like trading is going to always be. So just |
| 280 | 00:52:58,350 --> 00:53:05,820 | be careful not to be influenced by me, by me not saying what you see in your chart, if I don't say it doesn't mean that ain't valid, it just means that I'm |
| 281 | 00:53:05,820 --> 00:53:15,510 | not worrying about that, right now, I have something else I'm looking for that would set up a setup for me, the analyst in me sees something that I want the |
| 282 | 00:53:15,510 --> 00:53:23,430 | trader Michael to engage in this week. And these are the levels that I'm watching. That's all I'm gonna say, Okay, hopefully, it's been communicated |
| 283 | 00:53:23,430 --> 00:53:31,380 | fairly, without offending anyone, and hopefully, bringing some calmness to those that have experienced it, because it's not my intent or interest to try to |
| 284 | 00:53:31,980 --> 00:53:46,920 | disrupt your learning. So with that said, on the ES on the weekly chart, we have constant encouragement of this wick, make sure you have that noted. Even though |
| 285 | 00:53:46,920 --> 00:54:00,690 | we've gone above it here, with this candles high on Friday, keep that constant encouragement on that wick right there and add this one. Be mindful of the |
| 286 | 00:54:00,690 --> 00:54:14,700 | opening, and the high of this down close candle here extended out in your charts. Now as it as a way of differentiating any levels that I have. That I |
| 287 | 00:54:14,700 --> 00:54:26,130 | have only one particular chart I have in my array of monitors in front of me anything from a monthly or weekly timeframe, I use the biggest, boldest line, I |
| 288 | 00:54:26,130 --> 00:54:34,710 | think it's a number for setting on TradingView. That way I know when I'm looking at them, that's coming from a weekly or monthly level. So when I see it, I know |
| 289 | 00:54:34,710 --> 00:54:43,050 | there's gonna be a whole lot more emphasis placed behind it. Because if you just simply put a regular thickness and the same color scheme across your your |
| 290 | 00:54:43,050 --> 00:54:50,130 | charts, you might lose sight of what that level is. Because while you're learning, you're probably gonna have a whole lot of lines on your chart. And |
| 291 | 00:54:50,130 --> 00:54:59,910 | over time, you'll find that you'll be using less. You actually have a pad next to you like I have, and I have key levels written down numerically. And I write |
| 292 | 00:54:59,910 --> 00:55:08,640 | them And down in order like a PDF or a matrix in the order where I am in the marketplace, and I right above that price, like opening prices, I'll give an |
| 293 | 00:55:08,640 --> 00:55:19,290 | example what I'm talking about. At the opening at 930. I write down physically, the opening price on a little yellow notepad. And you probably seen them sitting |
| 294 | 00:55:19,290 --> 00:55:26,160 | on my desk. When I panned around the other day on Twitter and checking my, my stuff, the very first day Tuesday, when we did our first live stream, I write |
| 295 | 00:55:26,160 --> 00:55:37,410 | down the opening price. That space that I wrote it down in is empty. But above that, I have several levels that I've wrote down, that were pertinent to a |
| 296 | 00:55:37,410 --> 00:55:47,880 | weekly, high or a weekly low, or something like this outlined here. So I'm constantly referring to where we opened in relationship to these key levels |
| 297 | 00:55:47,880 --> 00:55:57,210 | here. So you're gonna learn visually by having the levels on your chart, I don't need that part anymore. You won't in the future, you won't need to either. |
| 298 | 00:55:57,420 --> 00:56:04,800 | You'll just have those levels written down in your notes, and you'll just glance through, it's okay. These levels are key. It also keeps your charts clean. And |
| 299 | 00:56:04,800 --> 00:56:13,830 | it keeps you from wanting to do what toggle through timeframes. Toggling through timeframes can disorient you, especially if you're new. If you lose sight of |
| 300 | 00:56:13,830 --> 00:56:24,390 | what chart you're on. I can't tell you how many times by answering questions when I was in live sessions teaching in my private group, my old students, |
| 301 | 00:56:25,800 --> 00:56:33,630 | I would be looking at timeframe and get disoriented because I'm going back and forth between two different markets. And I forget what timeframe and I'm looking |
| 302 | 00:56:33,630 --> 00:56:42,900 | at something and I'm giving my delivery about this is what I think's gonna happen. And it's not even a timeframe that would be useful for that idea. Like |
| 303 | 00:56:42,900 --> 00:56:51,000 | I'm looking at right now, a weekly chart, if I'm not careful, I could have went right into describing this as this is what you want to see on the next day, when |
| 304 | 00:56:51,000 --> 00:57:01,140 | we're on weekly candles. So by having things written out numerically, and in relationship to how each one of those prices stack up from high to low, where |
| 305 | 00:57:01,140 --> 00:57:10,890 | they fall in the in the grand scheme of things. I have that as my my reference point. I refer to that, more than anything that I do while I'm an intraday price |
| 306 | 00:57:10,890 --> 00:57:20,190 | action. I'm constantly looking at okay, I'm looking at this right now. And I'm gonna want that chart. I'm looking at that. And I'm referring to how are we in |
| 307 | 00:57:20,190 --> 00:57:30,300 | relationship to these levels. Once I hit a level, like when I just gave you these levels here, once they're traded to and or touched one time, they're |
| 308 | 00:57:30,330 --> 00:57:42,360 | they're booked, I circled the price level on my notepad. That means I know we've hit that already. So if I need to refer to it the next day or on Thursday, I |
| 309 | 00:57:42,360 --> 00:57:49,950 | know we've already went there before. So if it's going back up there and it goes to a level up already circled. I don't need a level on my chart to see that. Oh, |
| 310 | 00:57:49,950 --> 00:57:58,650 | yeah, we ran. I do that for your learning. So that way you can visually see it's ran by side there. So I'm thinking okay, it's ran that what's the next level of |
| 311 | 00:57:58,650 --> 00:58:07,830 | interest above that, that I haven't seen be booked or printed yet? And once I see that, that I know that it's likely to go through that level into the next |
| 312 | 00:58:07,830 --> 00:58:16,500 | level. I'm interested in above it if I'm bullish. So I'm trying to give you an idea of what it is I'm doing. Because I taught myself this because that's |
| 313 | 00:58:16,500 --> 00:58:24,570 | essentially what what floor traders do. They give you the pivot numbers, they ran a Fibonacci on the night before the open high low and close, you times three |
| 314 | 00:58:24,600 --> 00:58:33,090 | minus the you know, the low price and gives you the high pricing the whole formula gives you pivots. And then I would take those pivots and divide it in |
| 315 | 00:58:33,090 --> 00:58:44,070 | half. So it'd be mid pivots. So if you have like r one r two essential pivot, I would have central pivots are one and you probably completely distracted and |
| 316 | 00:58:44,070 --> 00:58:53,940 | confused right now because you don't hear me talk about pivots. It's not terribly important, but I'm just showing you how I've evolved as a trader are |
| 317 | 00:58:53,940 --> 00:59:02,790 | telling you rather. And I don't necessarily need a chart. I can trade literally sitting in my living room watching CNBC ticker tape, I don't need every minute |
| 318 | 00:59:02,820 --> 00:59:12,300 | by minute interval. I could literally watch that tape and trade. In fact, I used to do that with bonds. I'd have my levels on paper in front of me. I would look |
| 319 | 00:59:12,300 --> 00:59:20,220 | at the clock and say, Okay, I'm expecting this, this, this, this, this this. And as those levels will be touched, I knew it's reading for the next one. And if I |
| 320 | 00:59:20,220 --> 00:59:28,890 | saw that level hit, I'll wait for the next update to see a downtick if it downtick from that price level, then I can be a buyer there because I'm buying |
| 321 | 00:59:28,890 --> 00:59:38,610 | in downtick, it has to trade down for me to buy I don't need a chart. I don't need it. Just like a floor trader did not need a chart. They did their analysis |
| 322 | 00:59:38,610 --> 00:59:50,910 | at night, and they carried your levels on their notepad in their hands, a little spiral Mead, little their little cheapy little notepads, it gets put in our back |
| 323 | 00:59:50,910 --> 01:00:02,580 | pocket. Many times that's what most of them are using. And some of them are not even that one we're trying to just match Got cover near this a little bit, |
| 324 | 01:00:02,580 --> 01:00:08,400 | that's what they're looking for, they're holding it in their hand, okay, or they tape it up to the back of their hand. That's the level they're looking at. And |
| 325 | 01:00:08,400 --> 01:00:13,830 | they're holding their tickets, and they're buying and selling and doing their whole screaming bit business. They're not, they're not looking at fair value |
| 326 | 01:00:13,830 --> 01:00:22,260 | gaps, they're looking at actual hard line levels. So keep that in mind when you're watching this, because you're putting way much more emphasis on drawing |
| 327 | 01:00:22,260 --> 01:00:30,510 | heavy amounts of lines on your charts, right now, when you want to try to keep the goal in mind, you're gonna have a very clean chart in the end, and then work |
| 328 | 01:00:30,540 --> 01:00:39,390 | off of real numbers. So that way, you're not looking at the chart, because you have no idea how much influence having these levels drawn on your chart, it's |
| 329 | 01:00:39,390 --> 01:00:46,920 | going to have over your analysis, you'll be fearful, oh, it's going back to that level. Subconsciously, you're thinking, Okay, the last time I went to that |
| 330 | 01:00:46,920 --> 01:00:54,660 | level, it did this or didn't do that. And that's going to be a distraction versus watching what price is doing real time on these one in five minute |
| 331 | 01:00:54,660 --> 01:01:02,310 | charts. So you want to try to keep your focus on what's the main thing, the main thing is, where's liquidity, where's inefficiencies, you want to have those |
| 332 | 01:01:02,310 --> 01:01:11,430 | levels from the higher timeframe down. Now, I'm not doing monthly, it's not necessary here. But on weekly what I just described here, that's my weekly key |
| 333 | 01:01:11,430 --> 01:01:21,090 | levels for going into this week. That's it. They may evolve once we see Monday in CPI. But for now, these are the only things I have right now for the weekly |
| 334 | 01:01:21,090 --> 01:01:28,620 | chart. It's pretty simple. And I did more jawboning about other things supporting why these are important, but what you're supposed to do with it over |
| 335 | 01:01:28,620 --> 01:01:37,350 | time, that's what I just communicate, I work off of a new pattern to simply write them down the wrong numbers more so than having lines on my chart, but the |
| 336 | 01:01:37,350 --> 01:01:48,780 | data in derived expectations, and how I'm reading price, I'm teaching you that by having the lines on the chart. Over time, those training wheels, like on a |
| 337 | 01:01:48,780 --> 01:01:56,940 | bicycle, when you first learn how to ride a bike, you'll take them off, and you'll just read the chart naked. And that's where your your graduation is, |
| 338 | 01:01:57,120 --> 01:02:05,280 | where you can see it execute on it with nothing on the chart, and no influence or commentary by me, then you don't ever need to come to ICT videos or watch |
| 339 | 01:02:05,280 --> 01:02:12,660 | live streams that I'm doing. That's how you know you, you're now independently minded. And you can do this on your own and feel confident in doing it. And |
| 340 | 01:02:12,660 --> 01:02:19,740 | that's a good feeling, you should have been striving for that. That's the goal I have for you, you need to adopt that as well. So let's go down to the daily |
| 341 | 01:02:19,740 --> 01:02:41,730 | chart real quick. Alright, so here is the daily. And we have a volume imbalance here. And we had a volume imbalance in here. So I mentioned I don't remember |
| 342 | 01:02:41,730 --> 01:02:54,930 | where I mentioned it. But because there's two of them here. You want to have all four of those levels, annotate on your chart. So this closing price, this |
| 343 | 01:02:54,930 --> 01:03:08,250 | opening price, and then have the same color scheme for both of them. And then a different one, for this closing price in this opening price. Why? Because there |
| 344 | 01:03:08,250 --> 01:03:19,590 | are two different respective alignment balances. One is during the up delivery, for buyside. Notice the candles are up. And the next ends up. This one here is a |
| 345 | 01:03:19,590 --> 01:03:27,930 | down close candle and next candle stands close. So you want to make the distinction between that and how price if at all, returns to either one of them. |
| 346 | 01:03:28,590 --> 01:03:39,420 | So you want to use like a very large number for level with on your charts for annotation. And like say this might be I don't know, it could be green, because |
| 347 | 01:03:39,420 --> 01:03:46,770 | it's green candles. And it could be a heavy black from number four thickness. Because of these being down close now help you understand which one it's |
| 348 | 01:03:46,770 --> 01:03:54,180 | referring to. Now you might look at and say, well, what's the big deal, they're almost the same. It's a big deal. Because they're going to respect very specific |
| 349 | 01:03:54,210 --> 01:04:03,360 | levels, if they come back to it. And if they do trade them this week. Once it does that, I'll come back and show you what I want you to take away from it. But |
| 350 | 01:04:03,360 --> 01:04:12,420 | not having them on the chart. You won't you won't have the benefit of knowing, you know, whatever, whatever may be a follow up discussion. They might not even |
| 351 | 01:04:12,420 --> 01:04:24,030 | be a factor this week, they made an aim go there. You don't know that right now. We haven't even opened the new week yet. But I like those two volume advances. I |
| 352 | 01:04:24,030 --> 01:04:36,120 | have those levels in mind on my notes. And we have constant encouragement of this wick here. So be mindful of that. Consequent encroachment on this candle |
| 353 | 01:04:36,120 --> 01:04:48,930 | keep that going forward. You want the mean threshold of this down close candle, which is the midpoint so you put your Fibonacci on the low to the high, whatever |
| 354 | 01:04:48,930 --> 01:05:02,850 | the midpoint level is carry that all the way through this week. You want to also note the opening price on this candle here which is 40774 point 00 Because |
| 355 | 01:05:02,850 --> 01:05:14,130 | that's an order block, we've dug into the body of that candle here. So the most important point from now on is, if we're bullish, we shouldn't see it go below |
| 356 | 01:05:14,130 --> 01:05:22,950 | the mean threshold, which is here for that. But if we open higher, come back down and stop that consequent curtailment or failure and go that lower, then |
| 357 | 01:05:22,950 --> 01:05:33,120 | we're gonna go go back up inside this gap here. So that's how we would use the information for a museum, for example. And I think that's going to be it for the |
| 358 | 01:05:33,120 --> 01:05:43,770 | daily chart. So weekly, and daily, those are your key levels. It's not a lot. But those levels you want to have annotated, record them also, what they are, |
| 359 | 01:05:43,800 --> 01:05:52,200 | don't just have the levels there, right down in the description like inside the trendline. Okay, there's a way of annotating with the text feature on trading |
| 360 | 01:05:52,200 --> 01:06:05,070 | view, annotate what those levels are meaning the opening price on January 30, daily candle just in a very, very small font, make sure your levels empty like |
| 361 | 01:06:05,070 --> 01:06:16,680 | that. And then consequent courage, the mean threshold of the order block the same thing you would have annotated as January 30, mean threshold daily bullish |
| 362 | 01:06:16,680 --> 01:06:23,400 | order block. And you can abbreviate that the way ever, whatever way you want to have in your chart that is meaningful to you. |
| 363 | 01:06:24,450 --> 01:06:32,670 | Which is why I'm not annotating the chart like this because you're all going to try to mimic me. And that's not what I want to see not because I'm trying to |
| 364 | 01:06:32,670 --> 01:06:39,600 | hold anything back. I'm not trying to I'm not being lazy about it. I'm teaching you how to do this on your own. So that way it brings your own personal flair to |
| 365 | 01:06:39,600 --> 01:06:46,320 | it. Okay. Alright, so let's go down into a 60 minute chart hourly. |
| 366 | 01:06:59,010 --> 01:07:09,630 | Okay, on the range, my eyes dealing, as I'm looking at this low, all the way up to this high. And I'm looking for a midpoint without even having a Fibonacci |
| 367 | 01:07:09,630 --> 01:07:21,450 | there. Okay, is looking for midpoint. And then we are trading right here essentially at what equilibrium. So we are opening up while the market itself |
| 368 | 01:07:21,540 --> 01:07:31,260 | trade the inside of this large range. Why did I pick this high? In this low? Why am I not talking about this high in that low? Right? That's exactly what some of |
| 369 | 01:07:31,260 --> 01:07:45,900 | you were thinking. Where was the most dynamic price movement, it's this move here, from here to here. So that dealing range is parent. Everything else these |
| 370 | 01:07:45,900 --> 01:07:58,140 | little minor movements and small little retracements and dealing ranges, they're subordinate to all of the movement from this low up to this high, it's going to |
| 371 | 01:07:58,140 --> 01:08:11,340 | be subordinate to what that relationship to premium to discount from this high to that low. So if he split that in half on this, eyeballing it all this here, |
| 372 | 01:08:12,090 --> 01:08:26,010 | and higher is premium. So we're at equilibrium. So what I'm looking at is, how much time have we spent in discount, or premium which has, which has been done |
| 373 | 01:08:26,010 --> 01:08:39,540 | more? Clearly, we've spent a whole lot more time in what a premium inside the range between this high in that low? What has been explored. We went down into a |
| 374 | 01:08:39,540 --> 01:08:45,450 | discount a little bit, but look how fast we came back to equilibrium. I don't want to read too much into that because it's Friday. That's what we're seeing |
| 375 | 01:08:45,450 --> 01:08:56,220 | Friday's price action there. And we don't know how we're going to open up. But let's just say we open, lower. Okay, so we open lower, and we want to come back |
| 376 | 01:08:56,220 --> 01:09:08,700 | into the closing price or any one of these daily candles, I'm sorry, these hourly candles can act as the point of which it doesn't need to go back to the |
| 377 | 01:09:08,910 --> 01:09:18,930 | closing price on Friday. If we're weak, if we're looking for lower prices, and higher dollar, a lower opening could see us come right back up not completely |
| 378 | 01:09:18,960 --> 01:09:31,320 | returned back to the closing price. Why? Why would I say that? Because we are essentially closing an equilibrium. And we've had multiple times here. You |
| 379 | 01:09:31,320 --> 01:09:40,020 | moving back and forth. We don't necessarily need a very clean return rate back to Friday's close if we get lower. What's likely to do is if I'm correct, and I |
| 380 | 01:09:40,020 --> 01:09:45,720 | don't know this, I'm just giving you my thought process it'd be you're wanting to be trained by me. You want to see what I do and how I do it. This is exactly |
| 381 | 01:09:45,720 --> 01:09:55,290 | what I'm doing. I'm doing it right now in real time. For the first time looking at the charts. I'm telling you what I think and what I'm seeing. If we get |
| 382 | 01:09:55,290 --> 01:10:04,560 | lower, and we trade higher, I don't need it to return all the way back up to Friday. He's close. Whereas if it were a move where, for instance, we ended the |
| 383 | 01:10:04,560 --> 01:10:16,530 | day on Friday like here, and we get down on Sundays opening somewhere down here, I would expect a full return back to Friday's close. Why? Because it's really |
| 384 | 01:10:16,530 --> 01:10:24,510 | extended in here we've had back and forth, choppy, choppy, choppy, choppy, choppy, but more specifically is coming right back to the midpoint of the parent |
| 385 | 01:10:24,510 --> 01:10:34,260 | price swing of this high in that low. All of that range, that big explosive movement. It's been resisting going higher, it just keeps coming back, spend |
| 386 | 01:10:34,260 --> 01:10:40,830 | some time one more time, the real excitement, oh, there's a speaker, and then that fizzled out. Oh, we're gonna really do it. Now it's gonna run higher, and |
| 387 | 01:10:40,830 --> 01:10:52,290 | then it fizzles out. We've taken that relative equal lows here. So sell sides and taken the argument for the bulls would be okay, we've taken sell side now, |
| 388 | 01:10:53,190 --> 01:11:05,490 | we should see a gap higher trade down. Try to fill the gap all the way to the close here. Now see what it just did there. If we get lower, it doesn't need to |
| 389 | 01:11:05,490 --> 01:11:13,290 | come all the way back up to the closing price on Friday, because we've had multiple times back and forth in here in the gap between Friday's close and |
| 390 | 01:11:13,290 --> 01:11:23,940 | where are we open on Sunday, if it's like 7784 in that area, I would need to see a complete return back to Friday's close, I wouldn't need to see that at all. |
| 391 | 01:11:25,590 --> 01:11:35,640 | Because it's indicating what heaviness and it's going to want to do what reach into this low attack the low here. And then you want to have that fear of a gap |
| 392 | 01:11:35,640 --> 01:11:46,680 | muted. And then the sell side liquidity resting below here. So that's the levels that I'm interested in on the downside as discount. But devil's advocate. If it |
| 393 | 01:11:46,680 --> 01:11:59,850 | gets higher, I would expect a full return back down into the closing price. Why all of this inefficiency, were gapping up into it. We don't know that. I don't |
| 394 | 01:11:59,850 --> 01:12:07,950 | know that. But I'm assuming let's just for the sake of argument, say we get higher. And this is obviously a great deal that exaggeration where I'm pointing |
| 395 | 01:12:07,950 --> 01:12:20,220 | to. But conceptually, I'm trying to compute the idea that a gap opening below Friday's close in this instance, is not equal to the same expectation I would |
| 396 | 01:12:20,220 --> 01:12:31,800 | have if a gap higher formed. Because we've already spent a great deal time up here above the midpoint of the low to high. So you have to think about the |
| 397 | 01:12:31,800 --> 01:12:39,390 | market in terms of overbought and oversold without the basis of having an indicator at all on your chart. How many times did we try to rally here and not |
| 398 | 01:12:39,390 --> 01:12:53,940 | go higher 123456 times. And then finally, on Thursday, it gave up the ghost and traded lower. Now we don't know if they've taken the market down here to |
| 399 | 01:12:54,060 --> 01:13:04,890 | accumulate this sell stops to send it and reprice it higher. That clue will be how we open on Sunday. Today later on today, how we open is going to be |
| 400 | 01:13:04,920 --> 01:13:15,120 | influential for determining whether or not this is going to be resuming higher, or if it got lower, I don't need it to return back to the Friday close. And I'm |
| 401 | 01:13:15,120 --> 01:13:27,810 | expecting heavy weakness right from Jump Street. And then this low in this low will be Monday and into Tuesday CPI number. That will be my objective based on |
| 402 | 01:13:27,810 --> 01:13:38,760 | this. Also in that we've had this high. Since we traded lower here, we went above it here, choppy press the bubble here on this high relative to their high |
| 403 | 01:13:40,290 --> 01:13:50,130 | pull back one more time dug into it, it just feels like they had to come off of that discount because this was really really low. And it did not take up that |
| 404 | 01:13:50,130 --> 01:13:59,850 | low here. And it didn't even come down consequent encroachment of that wick which should be also noted on your hourly chart. So because we've come all the |
| 405 | 01:13:59,850 --> 01:14:14,040 | way back up into essentially equilibrium relative to the high here and here, I would favor a down gap, the opening lower gap later today. And I wouldn't |
| 406 | 01:14:14,040 --> 01:14:22,230 | require or demand the market comes all the way back up to it before it goes lower. I wouldn't need that because we already had multiple attempts to get back |
| 407 | 01:14:22,230 --> 01:14:34,470 | to equilibrium and taken out this buyside liquidity that was resting a little bit high. flipping the script if we get higher because we've had a run below |
| 408 | 01:14:34,920 --> 01:14:47,550 | sell side here with this drop and that we've climbed all the way back above I would view that as a breaker and the closing price that would be all that's |
| 409 | 01:14:47,550 --> 01:14:55,140 | necessary because then I would interpret it as okay the open to hear traded back down into the range which is the breaker which is this candle here to up close |
| 410 | 01:14:55,140 --> 01:15:07,500 | candle extending that candle forward that should be on your alley too. If we get higher, it can come down in retouch the Friday close. And then I would expect to |
| 411 | 01:15:07,500 --> 01:15:18,000 | see it try to reach up into all of this inefficiency. If we get higher, show responsiveness at Friday's close and move higher, that would indicate that and |
| 412 | 01:15:18,000 --> 01:15:31,380 | I'm probably wrong about my expectations on the market. And they might send this thing higher on the CPI on Tuesday. Now, stop for a second, what I just gave you |
| 413 | 01:15:32,730 --> 01:15:42,990 | is not plan a plan B, because I'm telling you, I don't know which one is going to pan out, I have to wait. And I have to see what the market does on Sundays |
| 414 | 01:15:42,990 --> 01:15:54,570 | opening. And then I weighed out based on the things I just explained to you. That's forecasting, that's your own. That's my analysis. But that's your own way |
| 415 | 01:15:54,570 --> 01:16:06,390 | of internalizing what you expect to see price. Perform and deliver. It's not equating to a trade entry. Oh, that is going to be at a later time. These are |
| 416 | 01:16:06,390 --> 01:16:18,120 | things that I'm looking for to justify what bias. I don't have a bias right now. I never have a bias before Sunday's opening, I don't ever have it, I have a |
| 417 | 01:16:18,120 --> 01:16:24,150 | inclination, I have a what to see in price. But my will |
| 418 | 01:16:25,290 --> 01:16:35,190 | cannot be exerted on the marketplace and see it come to fruition, I have to align myself with what the market is going to do. And what I just outlined was |
| 419 | 01:16:35,190 --> 01:16:44,310 | the two circumstances that I would like to see either if I'm going to look to go short, I want to see these types of things forming price. If I want to go long, |
| 420 | 01:16:44,460 --> 01:16:52,500 | and fade what I'd rather see in price coming into this week, because I would like to see dollar go higher, and everything gets smashed lower. I'm expecting |
| 421 | 01:16:52,500 --> 01:17:01,530 | that I'm completely comfortable with being wrong. I've already co signed it. And I've said it before, you've watched me now two times call CPI, what I think CPI |
| 422 | 01:17:01,530 --> 01:17:11,430 | was going to do, and I was dead wrong. But after CPI hits the market, I'm going in and I'm finding winning trades and executing on them. So don't waste so much |
| 423 | 01:17:11,460 --> 01:17:22,500 | on the outcome of a forecast forecasting is not profitable. You don't lose any money either in that a forecast is an opinion. And I'm trying to share my |
| 424 | 01:17:22,500 --> 01:17:33,270 | opinions with you before we see the week begin. It's not a measuring stick, it's not a report card. It was right or wrong. I don't think of it that way. It gives |
| 425 | 01:17:33,270 --> 01:17:44,760 | me a plan of action. If it does this, I'm looking to do that. If it does this, I'm looking to do that. Whereas 90% of retail traders are just going to chase |
| 426 | 01:17:44,760 --> 01:17:56,670 | whatever happens. I'm not doing that. I'm thinking about it logically that we've spent more time trying to go higher all last week. And finally giving up the |
| 427 | 01:17:56,670 --> 01:18:09,630 | ghost but being mindful that we've come down below these relatively equal lows where sell stops were resting. And we failed to take this low out or even go |
| 428 | 01:18:09,630 --> 01:18:19,170 | into consequent encouragement. Now think about what I mentioned earlier about those little short stubby wicks. Sometimes it can trade down to the shorts |
| 429 | 01:18:19,170 --> 01:18:28,800 | though, even though this isn't a short, stubby wick. But this is almost essentially what I'm referring to where this drop down. Then it retraces |
| 430 | 01:18:29,460 --> 01:18:38,250 | watching price at real time you probably were having this level if you're aware of what I've been teaching the consequent curriculum on candles wicks, you may |
| 431 | 01:18:38,250 --> 01:18:49,140 | have been expecting that low to be reached, or maybe even go completely below this low here. But it's stifled that decline and started rallying up into the |
| 432 | 01:18:49,140 --> 01:19:01,380 | range. What range this high to that low. Now I'm not thinking look at this high, look at this low, split it in half, there's equilibrium, and then wait for to |
| 433 | 01:19:01,380 --> 01:19:10,050 | get to equilibrium. And that would be a good sell. I don't I don't, I'm not thinking that right now. I'm thinking if we get higher trade back down, it's |
| 434 | 01:19:10,050 --> 01:19:19,380 | going to want to go higher to go higher. Above here, that's what I would expect. Because then it'd be just simply coming below these lows here to absorb that |
| 435 | 01:19:19,380 --> 01:19:30,090 | sell side as Counterparty and in are looking to reprice it higher. So that's what I'm talking about my saying, You need to be sitting down with someone and |
| 436 | 01:19:30,090 --> 01:19:37,290 | explain why they're thinking the way they're thinking. If you're just following someone that's giving you signals. They may be profitable, but they're not |
| 437 | 01:19:37,290 --> 01:19:44,700 | really helping you understand how to trade. They're the spoon feeding you. And there's an audience for that. Now, I'm not saying that, if that's what you are, |
| 438 | 01:19:44,700 --> 01:19:50,730 | and you don't want to learn this, it's too difficult. And you subscribe to that view, and there's people that are doing it and they're profitable, they're |
| 439 | 01:19:50,730 --> 01:19:57,330 | giving you signals. There's nothing wrong with that. In that instance, there's absolutely nothing wrong but if you're trying to learn how to do this |
| 440 | 01:19:57,330 --> 01:20:07,290 | independently, the worst thing you can do Do you subscribe to someone in signals when they're not explaining why they're doing it? Because it'll, in my opinion, |
| 441 | 01:20:07,350 --> 01:20:14,760 | it would create a sense of anxiety, because then I'm dependent on this person, what happens if they get the case, they asked and say, you know, I'm not gonna |
| 442 | 01:20:14,760 --> 01:20:22,650 | do this today, or they get in an argument with their spouse, they have a bad day, you're bringing your financial decisions to this person who's never |
| 443 | 01:20:22,650 --> 01:20:29,670 | disclosed, why they're doing the trades. Anyway, that takes a great deal of faith moreso than my opinion, than simply putting the work in, I'm saying why |
| 444 | 01:20:29,670 --> 01:20:38,640 | you're taking the trade in your own analysis. But that's my personal opinion, it may not be in agreement with all of you or even a large part of you. But that's |
| 445 | 01:20:38,640 --> 01:20:51,960 | just how I think about it. So it's in my mind, more more likely. And it will be more favorable for me to see a lower gap. Not come all the way back up to the |
| 446 | 01:20:53,100 --> 01:21:02,700 | closing price on Friday, show it as weakness as a breakaway gap. That's why I would like to see that because then it would indicate to me that's breaking away |
| 447 | 01:21:02,940 --> 01:21:16,290 | from this retracement, which was only taken us back up into equilibrium relative to this low to high back into this old order flow. All these old lows in here, |
| 448 | 01:21:16,500 --> 01:21:24,870 | it pulled back up into that and look how sloppily it was doing. It was going up and then come down, up and then come down. It just feels like it's it's reaching |
| 449 | 01:21:25,200 --> 01:21:33,330 | one more time, one more time, one more time. And it's like that rock climber, he's just trying to swing get that last bit of a grip, but there's not enough |
| 450 | 01:21:33,330 --> 01:21:42,810 | chocolate his hand, it's sweaty, and he slips off. And that's what I'm expecting. That's what I see here. I'm absolutely likely to be wrong. And I'm |
| 451 | 01:21:42,810 --> 01:21:49,830 | okay with it. Because it's Sunday, I don't know what somebody's going to do. But that's, that's my thought process going into it. Okay, so hopefully you |
| 452 | 01:21:49,890 --> 01:21:59,910 | appreciate that. Not put the don't bet the farm on it. Because if I if I had a strong inclination about what it was going to do, I will, I will be putting my |
| 453 | 01:21:59,910 --> 01:22:04,740 | own money behind it. And I'm not. So it's just an expectation on the marketplace I'm holding. |
| 454 | 01:22:10,170 --> 01:22:20,970 | Alright, you can see again, 123 retail is gonna see this as a bull flag here. And then we're gonna go higher. Now if we do get higher, that changes |
| 455 | 01:22:20,970 --> 01:22:30,240 | everything. And I'm just giving you all the reasons why that does change it. But hear bowls that went long in this or wanting to go along, they're going to want |
| 456 | 01:22:30,240 --> 01:22:40,110 | to see a gap higher a gap and go type of event. I would like to see a gap higher. If I'm bullish, gap higher, come back into it, return all the way to |
| 457 | 01:22:40,110 --> 01:22:49,740 | Friday's close. And then show me willingness to want to rally. That's how I would wait and see. I'm not trying to just simply go in here and blindly buy the |
| 458 | 01:22:49,740 --> 01:22:59,220 | retracement back to the closing price. I want to see does it give me a shift in market structure after that return to Friday's close. Flip the script gapping |
| 459 | 01:22:59,220 --> 01:23:11,760 | lower I do not need it to trade back to Friday's close. Because we have all this in here. getting lower, it can make an attempt to trade higher, leave the gap |
| 460 | 01:23:11,820 --> 01:23:20,310 | open? It partially it doesn't have to come back to or even halfway it's better if it doesn't. What would that communicate to me, it's exceedingly weak. They |
| 461 | 01:23:20,310 --> 01:23:28,530 | can't even fill the gap. You see, that's what you're trying to do. Whether you know that is what you're expecting going forward every weekend before Sunday, |
| 462 | 01:23:28,800 --> 01:23:37,350 | you want to read price. Write down what you would expect to see relative to the Sunday's gap opening, not because you're trying to train yourself with the |
| 463 | 01:23:37,350 --> 01:23:42,180 | belief that you're going to know how to do that because I don't know I've been doing it for 30 years, I don't believe anybody can tell you where it's gonna gap |
| 464 | 01:23:42,180 --> 01:23:52,020 | open. If they did, they're way better than me. And they they know something that none of us would know. Nobody has the information. So, but you want to be |
| 465 | 01:23:52,350 --> 01:24:03,000 | conducting yourself as a means of case study and walk forward testing and building confidence and trusting the fact that you don't need to know this piece |
| 466 | 01:24:03,000 --> 01:24:11,640 | of piece of information. But how you're going to respond to that as an analyst. If it gaps lower. What do you reasonably expect to see it do and what don't you |
| 467 | 01:24:11,640 --> 01:24:19,560 | want to see it do? What is not likely to occur? Well, here's an example something I would not like to see. And I don't think it's likely to occur a gap |
| 468 | 01:24:19,560 --> 01:24:30,810 | lower and rate from the opening lower go raging higher. I could be wrong. But the likelihood of that happening is less likely than a gap lower coming up |
| 469 | 01:24:30,810 --> 01:24:40,260 | leaving the gap open, not completely closing in and then working lower to take that sell side and maybe dig into that hourly consequent coachmen wick in that |
| 470 | 01:24:40,290 --> 01:24:55,470 | wicks low and subsequent V Ray got to the left on the hourly chart before we went down to the 15 minute timeframe. Alright, so we've had 123 times as a three |
| 471 | 01:24:55,470 --> 01:25:03,330 | drives potentially pattern and that's why I would also like the fact that we get lower I would put more emphasis on this reaching just simply get into the |
| 472 | 01:25:03,330 --> 01:25:12,570 | liquidity resting above here. Why was it doing this? Higher, higher, higher, because the liquidity that was trailed behind this low I'm sorry, this high as |
| 473 | 01:25:12,570 --> 01:25:22,020 | the market went lower, it was taking that liquidity starting to break down, what happens then any stock that was higher than this was brought back down to what? |
| 474 | 01:25:22,530 --> 01:25:33,210 | This high again, they come right back above, skip this high, right back above this high again, with this run. Then they start dropping it again. Okay, now I |
| 475 | 01:25:33,210 --> 01:25:41,790 | finally did it. Now we can get short. Now we can get short. Where's the stop loss that rate back to an old high, you might be thinking here and here. But my |
| 476 | 01:25:41,790 --> 01:25:52,050 | focus my eyes go on right there. And they take it once more time of again, it just so happens that I've taken out each individual high two, which is killing |
| 477 | 01:25:52,050 --> 01:26:04,050 | two birds with one stone. That's how I'm internalizing that price action. It's too it's too compressed, meaning that from the low here up to this high, all |
| 478 | 01:26:04,050 --> 01:26:15,390 | these fluctuations back and forth, even though they made higher highs and higher lows. I'm not convinced that that's something that's bullish. Like I see that as |
| 479 | 01:26:15,390 --> 01:26:27,120 | this constantly reaching for liquidity, that would be in the form of buyside. Keeping anybody from potentially profiting from a lower gap opening, and never |
| 480 | 01:26:27,480 --> 01:26:37,110 | coming back up to those levels, again, to give them a safe entry, which is what they want to see. More specifically not coming back to this old high. So |
| 481 | 01:26:37,110 --> 01:26:48,270 | hopefully, I kind of justifies what my internalization of price action, when I am forecasting for my own observations. If it does anything other than those |
| 482 | 01:26:49,290 --> 01:27:01,170 | potential scenarios, I'm sitting on my hands and doing nothing. Well, I just gave you the upside, if I'm wrong, what I would look for, I gave you the |
| 483 | 01:27:01,170 --> 01:27:10,830 | downside, which is what I'm looking for the things that I just outlined, if the price doesn't deliver those very things, I'm doing nothing. And I'm not going to |
| 484 | 01:27:10,830 --> 01:27:18,960 | be anxious about doing nothing, I'm going to be completely content sitting still, because I'm going to be requiring more information to happen on Monday at |
| 485 | 01:27:18,960 --> 01:27:27,300 | 930 is opening. Why? Because there's no news events, that's going to be of interest to me on Monday. Why? Because Tuesday is the CPI number, it's going to |
| 486 | 01:27:27,300 --> 01:27:35,940 | be the big event, a lot of people are just sitting on their hands, there isn't going to be a lot of movement until CME and CPI hits the market. No one wants to |
| 487 | 01:27:35,940 --> 01:27:50,040 | assume positions ahead of that number, that report that comes out on Tuesday. So there is not any reason to be excited about doing big moves in Monday. Because |
| 488 | 01:27:50,040 --> 01:28:01,440 | the big move is absolutely predictable. On Tuesday, the CPI is bringing that hopefully that makes sense. Okay. And I think that's going to be it because |
| 489 | 01:28:01,440 --> 01:28:09,810 | we've already went down the lower timeframe stuff talking about it real time on Friday. So hopefully glean something from this and I'm sure you probably got a |
| 490 | 01:28:09,810 --> 01:28:16,860 | million other new questions because of it. But you know, until we get the opening price on Sunday, you know, tonight I'm talking like we're in a different |
| 491 | 01:28:16,860 --> 01:28:26,820 | day. Once we get the opening on Sunday, most of you won't be caring about it because you're going to be drunk and watching. Grown men run around you know, |
| 492 | 01:28:26,940 --> 01:28:36,600 | when spandex on chasing a football. So enjoy that. I don't even know who's playing in it. That's how much I care about football or sports but I hope your |
| 493 | 01:28:36,600 --> 01:28:45,210 | team wins whichever that one is. And if you're out and about make sure you get home safely. And I'll touch base with you by way of Twitter. I'm certain to let |
| 494 | 01:28:45,210 --> 01:28:50,700 | you know when I'm going to start my live stream in the morning. Okay. And I'll talk to you next time. Be safe |