ICT YT - 2023-02-09 - Market Review - February 09 2023
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-02-10 12:06
Outline
05:39 - Can you hear me?
06:57 - How to get the audio to work.
10:51 - The New Week Opening Gap -.
14:04 - What are you looking for in this trade?
20:20 - Watch that midpoint between the two levels as I'm talking my eyes.
26:26 - What I want to see from this candle.
29:32 - What happens if the price goes down and hits my level?
36:22 - The best way to read the price of candles.
41:24 - What is a chart of price action?
45:24 - Paint roller vs. price continuum -.
51:34 - Why the algorithm is coded this way -.
57:50 - What’s the mid-point of the range?
01:00:38 - Why you need to know what you’re not supposed to see.
01:08:12 - Think of it like a pothole on the road -.
01:14:51 - What’s the low of this candle?
01:17:18 - You’re wasting time worrying about stuff that has no bearing on your development.
01:23:23 - If you’re an afternoon session trader, you have the advantage with the last hour of the day.
01:30:15 - What is the swing low?
01:34:00 - How do you know when a candle is going to get tripped?
01:39:55 - Don’t look at price action as a limitation.
01:46:22 - What’s the open on this candle?
01:49:18 - Why price doesn’t need to come back up into this range.
01:56:08 - The importance of understanding the order flow -.
Transcription
| 1 | 00:05:39,510 --> 00:05:41,460 | ICT: See if we can some audio now |
| 2 | 00:05:48,360 --> 00:05:49,530 | hello hello hello |
| 3 | 00:06:24,450 --> 00:06:31,740 | Lu Lu Lu we should be well not sure if I'm even doing this writing with you |
| 4 | 00:06:37,830 --> 00:06:40,440 | Hello Hello Hello Hello Hello |
| 5 | 00:06:54,090 --> 00:07:04,920 | okay I can hear myself now. So I was trying to figure out how to get this audio to work total noob when it comes to live streaming |
| 6 | 00:07:10,860 --> 00:07:20,460 | was going to do a Twitter space festive and just watch the rest of the day give you your second live stream and talk about this morning |
| 7 | 00:07:32,610 --> 00:07:38,640 | and looking forward to opportunity for it to drop down to go below that 41 05 and a quarter level. |
| 8 | 00:08:59,160 --> 00:09:13,620 | was running fib projections for targets earlier to beginning of the stream and that's what I have down here. I talked about I think 4840 9850 I think it's what |
| 9 | 00:09:13,620 --> 00:09:26,820 | a tweet I don't know that my head was a number that I was thinking was doable but running the numbers here on that fib taking this price like from here to |
| 10 | 00:09:26,820 --> 00:09:29,460 | here. Let's via can real quick |
| 11 | 00:09:36,240 --> 00:09:47,130 | once their deviation, basically a measured move using this high under that low this low being a fulcrum point. Just because I'm measuring up a high to a low |
| 12 | 00:09:47,130 --> 00:09:56,250 | like that doesn't mean oh, it's gonna definitely go to that level here. It has to obviously continuously prove that it wants to keep going lower and it first |
| 13 | 00:09:56,250 --> 00:10:07,050 | has to break below that low and again that's the fulcrum point. So Whatever move it has done from that low to high. It's like a measured move idea. And swing |
| 14 | 00:10:07,050 --> 00:10:25,170 | down to like that. I got this from that series from Larry Williams from 1995. He had this little transparent piece of plastic that had several lines on it 12344 |
| 15 | 00:10:25,200 --> 00:10:34,830 | At four lines in a straight line in the middle, he called his target shooter. And I just basically said, Well, I'm just going to use the perfect measure move |
| 16 | 00:10:34,830 --> 00:10:43,260 | here. And that'll be my target shooter approach with just using the food tool. Great at this level here, I like to get another partial off there. |
| 17 | 00:10:51,630 --> 00:11:10,140 | So I talked about last night in the was at the market review, that new week opening gap, which is reviewed as NW Oh, gee. I know, it seems like I'm trying |
| 18 | 00:11:10,140 --> 00:11:21,840 | to confuse you. If not, it's easier to do these little small letters that describe a concept that has a lot of words, that just makes it easy. And also, |
| 19 | 00:11:21,870 --> 00:11:30,450 | it's real quick for me to type in when I'm doing live examples. And I'm trying to record them for Twitter. It's easier for me to type those letters and you |
| 20 | 00:11:30,450 --> 00:11:37,080 | know exactly what I'm looking at what I'm referring to, versus sitting here trying to type the words and then most likely probably getting it wrong in my |
| 21 | 00:11:37,080 --> 00:11:45,060 | obsessive compulsive fliers. And the whole time the markets moving and I'm trying to focus on all that it's a little bit more difficult than it probably |
| 22 | 00:11:45,060 --> 00:11:50,310 | looks, small little volume and balance in here, watching and that |
| 23 | 00:11:55,710 --> 00:12:06,300 | what's nice is you guys can actually turn this into real high definition, and then zoom in on the chart. So whatever doesn't appear the all that crisp and |
| 24 | 00:12:06,990 --> 00:12:17,640 | easy to see, you can zero in on an area and to zoom in with your phone or your screen on the computer and see real real close and real tight. |
| 25 | 00:12:33,840 --> 00:12:44,610 | I'll save the new week opening gap. But last night on the live stream on iOS. Yeah, because it was a live stream on the the levels I had on the chart. And I |
| 26 | 00:12:44,610 --> 00:12:53,760 | was referring to it as the new week opening gap. I was half right. Meaning that I was showing this level here. And the midpoint between that level, which is the |
| 27 | 00:12:53,760 --> 00:13:02,430 | high on the new week opening gap, which is technically Friday's closing price. And this level here. And then I split that in half. And it was the midpoint of |
| 28 | 00:13:02,430 --> 00:13:12,690 | that which is the upper quadrant of the entire range of the new week opening gap. And I had forgotten that I was talking to my son about it. And I had that |
| 29 | 00:13:12,690 --> 00:13:20,520 | chart annotated with that focusing on that specific range teaching him. And when I opened up my charts and started doing a live stream last night I saw I was |
| 30 | 00:13:20,520 --> 00:13:28,410 | like oh, this is on the wrong one on the hourly chart and I realized really what I had done. So I immediately went on to Twitter and tweeted the entire gradient |
| 31 | 00:13:29,490 --> 00:13:39,210 | new week opening gap so that way you can see each level. And all that is is simply taking a fib and laying it on the low to the high finding 50% net for 50% |
| 32 | 00:13:39,240 --> 00:13:52,080 | left there to hear in the 50% behind that or you can just simply do a 2550 and 75 level on your fifth which is simply going in changing the settings |
| 33 | 00:13:58,590 --> 00:14:10,500 | so a little bit more honey just a little bit more. Like my wife. She wants me to give her money just a little bit more honey to which I say just a little bit |
| 34 | 00:14:10,500 --> 00:14:16,230 | more honey no ratchet ICT here come on |
| 35 | 00:14:21,300 --> 00:14:27,300 | one more time. Very nice to have a little bit more below it |
| 36 | 00:14:37,350 --> 00:14:45,690 | so now what I'm looking at, it's already had this target hit. I'm looking at this one here. And I have two contracts remaining. I don't necessarily need to |
| 37 | 00:14:45,690 --> 00:14:54,750 | have the 4098 50 or the 49 Nine level for moral victory. It would be nice to see it hit there today because I can say well there you go screenshot that. And |
| 38 | 00:14:55,470 --> 00:15:06,030 | there's some more evidence. But what I'm wanting to do here now to The remaining contracts that have one is I want to eyeball and see if it can go the midpoint |
| 39 | 00:15:06,060 --> 00:15:16,590 | between this target which has been met. And that took a partial. And this level here, so if it can reach down to about halfway, I'll close one more. And notice, |
| 40 | 00:15:16,590 --> 00:15:25,440 | I'm not worrying about my stop loss up here, way up here, completely out of mine, I'm not worrying about it's not a point of concern. I'm focusing on price |
| 41 | 00:15:25,440 --> 00:15:34,650 | action, because this is a really weird, fickle day today. And this morning, this is for the the Joker's that like to come in after the fact when they haven't |
| 42 | 00:15:34,680 --> 00:15:41,940 | posted anything alive, they haven't caught anything live in what's on the other examples are executions, and they go on their live streams, and lose $15,000 max |
| 43 | 00:15:41,940 --> 00:15:52,890 | loss on their live stream and think that they're some Elementor. But when I'm tape reading, I'm taking your attention into specific PD arrays. And I'm telling |
| 44 | 00:15:52,890 --> 00:15:59,820 | you what I want to see, that's not the same as thing, this is not the same as going in taking a trade. They're not trades, okay, I'm not, I'm not getting |
| 45 | 00:15:59,820 --> 00:16:07,440 | wrecked. Okay, I did get on a trade this morning. And it did come against me. And I closed that, if I would have held on to it, it would have stopped me out |
| 46 | 00:16:07,590 --> 00:16:17,910 | with a larger stop loss. So I wanted to engage that way I could have something for you. But it just was simply not wanting to pan out. And also I like to take |
| 47 | 00:16:17,910 --> 00:16:26,730 | a trade when I don't really have a good feel for what it is I'm looking for. So I'll put on a very small trade, usually one contract, maybe two to get me |
| 48 | 00:16:27,000 --> 00:16:33,990 | wanting to feel closer to what price is doing. And this is also something you want to do with your demo account. Even when you start trading with live funds. |
| 49 | 00:16:35,100 --> 00:16:45,090 | You should have your demo account at the ready. Because in the beginning, if you're trading in the morning session, it can be really indecisive. Even though |
| 50 | 00:16:45,090 --> 00:16:51,540 | you may have a bias like we outlined this morning, I was expecting an opportunity to go short. That was the real main focus. But I don't mind taking a |
| 51 | 00:16:51,540 --> 00:17:02,310 | long to ride up into that 47 8.25 level which could have very easily been raided. I was looking for that trade specifically to go short. And I was going |
| 52 | 00:17:02,310 --> 00:17:09,510 | to try to nail down the high today. So I see if I can get on Twitter and gloat. That's what I was trying to do. But it wasn't it wasn't working for me. It |
| 53 | 00:17:09,510 --> 00:17:21,330 | wasn't trying to get up there. So it is what it is it didn't deliver didn't go there. But when I'm calling out specific PDA raise your attention is placed on |
| 54 | 00:17:21,330 --> 00:17:31,080 | that specific area. Now, some of you, and it's probably the ones that are real quiet today. You probably looked at that and think, Oh, it's a trade. Let me go |
| 55 | 00:17:31,080 --> 00:17:38,100 | in here and push the button. And you've learned a valuable lesson today. I told you not to take trades on the things I'm telling you because you don't know what |
| 56 | 00:17:38,100 --> 00:17:47,820 | you're supposed to be deriving from that until you go through it. So as I was going through the motions this morning, my son sit next thing is like that, |
| 57 | 00:17:48,480 --> 00:18:00,090 | like, I'm trying to close my eyes and listen to what you're doing. Because you're I'm saying it out loud. I'm saying it out loud. And you're just basically |
| 58 | 00:18:00,090 --> 00:18:10,410 | seeing a tweet. So he's trying to feel out what it would be like for all of you. You're, you're seeing a tweet, you're seeing levels and things I'm referring to, |
| 59 | 00:18:10,860 --> 00:18:23,010 | but you're only seeing one piece of it, because I'm forcing you to go into the chart and look at it, engage that very candle, that very concept, and try to get |
| 60 | 00:18:23,010 --> 00:18:30,930 | a feeling for what you think price is going to do next. The uncertainty, you have to embrace that. You have to you have to do that part. And it's that's a |
| 61 | 00:18:30,930 --> 00:18:37,470 | scary feeling, especially if you're trying to do it with a live account, which is why you don't want to do it like that. And you shouldn't be done with a demo |
| 62 | 00:18:37,470 --> 00:18:46,500 | account. Either you want to read the tape, get a feel for what price is doing. And to simply because I'm calling out a level, we're waiting for certain things |
| 63 | 00:18:46,500 --> 00:18:55,140 | to occur. A fair value get doesn't always necessarily mean once it trades down to it, it's a buy. Sometimes I want to see a trade down to it and through it and |
| 64 | 00:18:55,140 --> 00:19:02,940 | come back up and act as resistance. But when I key your attention up to it, that's that gives you time, it gives you time to okay, this is this is what |
| 65 | 00:19:02,940 --> 00:19:12,840 | we're focusing on right now. This is where our point of interest is. And let's see what he says next. So one of the things you're going to fall victim to is |
| 66 | 00:19:12,840 --> 00:19:23,220 | fearing missing out a move, like today. So I know listening to my son, he was thinking like that, what do you what do you think the number of traders were |
| 67 | 00:19:23,220 --> 00:19:31,830 | today that were trying to do something with everything you were tweeting? I said probably about 30% because they've seen me calling certain things pretty |
| 68 | 00:19:31,830 --> 00:19:44,640 | consistently and knowing what human nature is like they're going to want to try to pursue you the next move. And I started feeling guilty about it. So much so |
| 69 | 00:19:44,640 --> 00:19:53,460 | that I was like I'm gonna have to break a rule and to simply call out plainly when I'm going to take the trade. So I tweeted said I was going short. And |
| 70 | 00:19:54,090 --> 00:20:06,900 | apparently the entire world was listening. And they all dog piled on top of it. So I think that was interesting. But the that should have fixed your boo boo. |
| 71 | 00:20:06,990 --> 00:20:16,650 | Okay, if you've followed me this morning and you're trying to press the button prior to that, that should have corrected you or here's the worst thing. You |
| 72 | 00:20:16,650 --> 00:20:23,820 | didn't do that because you hurt yourself doing something you should have done. And then you watch that do this. And now you're feeling the very things I talked |
| 73 | 00:20:23,820 --> 00:20:35,640 | about in mine. Twitter spaces, the psychological effects of all that stuff, watch that midpoint between those two levels. As I'm talking my eyes right in |
| 74 | 00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:46,260 | between, and there's probably on jumped anyway, I'm doing this right here, in here. So halfway between that this is what I'm looking at right here |
| 75 | 00:20:52,320 --> 00:21:04,710 | so 41 03 and a quarter. It touches that and I'll peel off one more. It may not do it, I can be wrong. It goes the other direction. I don't care. But I like the |
| 76 | 00:21:04,710 --> 00:21:13,590 | idea that we traded up into the volume imbalance I mentioned live here. And we've delivered away from that. We had a sell side unbalanced by side and |
| 77 | 00:21:13,590 --> 00:21:22,080 | efficiency we came up into that left a small portion open I like that. We're in look, we're in new lows, but I only have two contracts left. So I'm willing to |
| 78 | 00:21:22,080 --> 00:21:26,370 | risk it for the biscuit of hitting down a little bit deeper for here and then getting out on that one |
| 79 | 00:21:31,980 --> 00:21:44,310 | risk it for the biscuit. Just a little bit more ICT just a little bit more. Thank you so much. Thank you so much for this cherry picked. Is it live or is it |
| 80 | 00:21:44,310 --> 00:21:55,410 | Memorex? I'm showing my age. What the hell are you talking about ICT? Older folks know what I'm talking about? Is it live? Or is it Memorex? Mesmer was |
| 81 | 00:21:55,440 --> 00:22:00,750 | Memorex. Memorex here we'll make it just taking profit. |
| 82 | 00:22:05,940 --> 00:22:19,920 | Alright, so if I want this level, I'm going to come off of it one tick. And then we'll see what we get. Oh. |
| 83 | 00:22:33,480 --> 00:22:36,750 | I want to come in here a little bit tighter and show you that pulling in balance. |
| 84 | 00:22:51,210 --> 00:23:01,710 | So when we're watching price action, and I'm on Twitter, and I'm calling you specific things to draw your attention to this is the equivalent of majority of |
| 85 | 00:23:01,710 --> 00:23:14,280 | what you're seeing tweets about. Okay? So if I'm looking at say, well, for instance, this volume imbalance right here. Did you see me take a trade there? |
| 86 | 00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:27,030 | Did you see me enter it? No. It's something for you to watch and measure order flow. Order Flow is how you're reading how price moves from one level to another |
| 87 | 00:23:27,030 --> 00:23:38,910 | level. I outlined between this level here and this level here. I wanted to fit 2% level of that, which was what 410 3.25 What's the low of that candle? You're |
| 88 | 00:23:38,910 --> 00:23:53,490 | looking right up here. Okay. The low that candle comes in at 410 3.00. Okay, so because I was doing it manually and doing it as it hits it live, I aim for |
| 89 | 00:23:53,520 --> 00:24:04,590 | Trump, it's like a, it's the part of the game I use when I'm doing my manual exits. Because I know I'm invariably never going to get the perfect, the perfect |
| 90 | 00:24:04,590 --> 00:24:15,000 | exit point. If I use my limit orders on a specific level because I've been accustomed to being unfortunately, permit me to say this without seeing as an |
| 91 | 00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:24,210 | invitation for you to be critical to yourself. But I don't like when I use a limit order when I'm trying to be very, very precise. Like I'm trying to get the |
| 92 | 00:24:24,210 --> 00:24:36,600 | low or the lowest tick. I'm very very frustrated when my limit orders don't get it and it goes past it by three ticks or just one handle. So what I like to do |
| 93 | 00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:44,490 | is I like to see when it happens live and then I try to time it it's kind of like that game. When I was when my kids were little they used to want to go to |
| 94 | 00:24:44,490 --> 00:24:52,830 | that Chucky Cheese thing. And there was a game it would spin around like nothing's really spinning the lights would go around like it was spinning. But |
| 95 | 00:24:53,280 --> 00:25:02,040 | he had to time it you got to hit this thing and wherever it stops you would get the respective price. You whatever it was still hopping on. So it's a treat it |
| 96 | 00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:10,170 | like that. So I'm trying to hit it like, as it hits the level I'm interested in, I'm hoping you now have positive slippage in my favor and then give me the |
| 97 | 00:25:10,200 --> 00:25:22,950 | better exit. And sometimes, sometimes my exits are very nice, I'm satisfied with them. But most of the time, they're not like I'm not satisfied with them. You |
| 98 | 00:25:22,950 --> 00:25:34,860 | look at this, and you think, Well, what do you complain about 30 years of trying to pursue perfection. And it's a compulsive tendency for me to criticize my own |
| 99 | 00:25:34,890 --> 00:25:43,200 | exits. being profitable is not the point. The point is, is I want them to be perfect. And I'm never going to have that. But as long as I keep aiming for it, |
| 100 | 00:25:43,230 --> 00:25:51,420 | what's it going to do, it's going to make that skill set better, it's going to make it better each time. Now see, I'd like to have more than one contract on |
| 101 | 00:25:51,450 --> 00:26:03,450 | still. Because then I could take off one more as it was hitting that low here. This low comes, sing level 41 03 even. |
| 102 | 00:26:16,080 --> 00:26:27,180 | So now when we have levels like this, see these wicks here, we have the wick there, this wick there. We have a wick here, and here. And it's this one single |
| 103 | 00:26:27,180 --> 00:26:37,200 | candle. I don't want to see it trade back up into that area, I want to see it remain heavy, because we've had multiple times passing through that range. So it |
| 104 | 00:26:37,200 --> 00:26:42,990 | should act as a bounce price range and not want to go back up to near as if it does trade back up in the air, then it's probably gonna have a deeper |
| 105 | 00:26:42,990 --> 00:26:56,880 | retracement and come back up into this area, which in my mind is problematic for me getting to my target, which is within earshot of where it's at now. So when |
| 106 | 00:26:56,880 --> 00:27:05,070 | I'm calling out PD erase specific fair value gaps, volume imbalances, I'd like to see it do this. I'd like to see it do that. The worst thing you could do is |
| 107 | 00:27:05,130 --> 00:27:15,060 | read into that and thinking oh, he's communicating. That's a trade entry. So the goober out there. That's s&p specialist, you know, Mr. talker, that I did not |
| 108 | 00:27:15,060 --> 00:27:26,790 | fail and blow out three times and robins go. False. Every time I mentioned a PD array, every time I do that, it's simple. It's simply me giving you a reference |
| 109 | 00:27:26,790 --> 00:27:34,230 | point, like I mentioned here on this one, talking about the volume imbalance, just like I was calling it live in yesterday's market review, I was talking |
| 110 | 00:27:34,230 --> 00:27:43,920 | about very specific things. Watch the reaction to price. And what you're doing is you're measuring does price does it respect that? Now what would have |
| 111 | 00:27:43,920 --> 00:27:55,110 | happened if it would have traded through it? Am I going to go into a tizzy fit and say oh and huff and puff and be mad because it didn't respect that PDA right |
| 112 | 00:27:55,110 --> 00:28:04,080 | now. I'm taking that as insight I'm reading it. Internalizing it's okay, it went through that one. So what's the next one I have to be watching because if it |
| 113 | 00:28:04,080 --> 00:28:12,600 | blinked if it breaks through three of them then I'm probably not on site anymore in my interpretation of order flow is not accurate. So if I have a stoploss |
| 114 | 00:28:12,600 --> 00:28:20,250 | that's likely to be hit I can do what I did today neutralize it and not let this stop me hit it all. Now see what we're doing here we're trading up into this |
| 115 | 00:28:20,250 --> 00:28:28,860 | area which is what I said it didn't want to see it do because it's doing this and trading up into here my eye is right here at the mean threshold of that |
| 116 | 00:28:28,860 --> 00:28:34,050 | candle this up close candle so for specifics |
| 117 | 00:28:40,530 --> 00:28:54,270 | I can't tell if it's a fog old eyes yeah 41 zero it goes through that then I'm probably going to close the trade and be content with it |
| 118 | 00:29:23,880 --> 00:29:39,210 | that's that so these are the things that plagued me as a as a trader. I'm wanting to see certain things be given to me at my exits. Let's go back down |
| 119 | 00:29:46,530 --> 00:29:59,340 | now, what happens if it goes down and hits my level and keeps on going lower? So that's that's the part that I don't feel frustration for. It's when I'm really |
| 120 | 00:29:59,340 --> 00:30:09,090 | trying to keep Yup on like when I was dealing in Friday here managing and trying to get the, the levels that I wanted for precision, closing the tray because it |
| 121 | 00:30:09,570 --> 00:30:22,770 | doesn't any longer hold the likelihood of delivering, like I want to see it deliver that rule has served me more and better than me trying to be finicky and |
| 122 | 00:30:22,770 --> 00:30:35,790 | try to finesse my exit strategies, pursuing perfection, meaning that if I'm in a trade, and I'm looking for something to indicate to me that I'm probably no |
| 123 | 00:30:35,790 --> 00:30:45,000 | longer in a move that's going to sustain and continue to my objectives, this still could do that. And I'm okay with it. Because there's many times where I |
| 124 | 00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:55,020 | would have discounted that whole idea of saying, Okay, if it goes through that mean threshold here, I'll be willing to sit through it. And it might do what |
| 125 | 00:30:55,020 --> 00:31:02,490 | it's doing right here, and then all of a sudden go the other direction. And then I would be really upset with myself that I knew better. But I didn't engage on |
| 126 | 00:31:02,490 --> 00:31:11,700 | that, I would be mad about that. But I don't get mad about me doing this closing the trade because it's now meeting a criteria, that means that I had been hurt |
| 127 | 00:31:11,700 --> 00:31:24,390 | in the past, by not sticking to that rule over something so insignificant as a move from where it was and trying to get down to my objective. to It looks like |
| 128 | 00:31:24,390 --> 00:31:26,700 | it might hit that 4098 50 level. |
| 129 | 00:31:41,700 --> 00:31:49,320 | So reading and interpreting each individual pdra helps you without having to have any kind of like depth of market on the right hand side. And either there's |
| 130 | 00:31:49,320 --> 00:31:59,550 | ladders and such, or volume profile, you don't need any of those things. You just need to see this price continuously keep offering resistance in the form of |
| 131 | 00:31:59,550 --> 00:32:06,660 | the PDA raise the things that would key up a new trade, not necessarily that we're taking a trade or that I'm entering on a trade, like the volume of balance |
| 132 | 00:32:06,660 --> 00:32:13,950 | that was mentioned here. Watch that, did you hear me say go short. Now some some of you probably went short there. And you probably already took profits based on |
| 133 | 00:32:13,950 --> 00:32:22,230 | the lines, it's already been hear me closing my trade. And you probably mimic that and you're doing everything wrong. But every time I mentioned a specific |
| 134 | 00:32:22,260 --> 00:32:33,240 | element of price action in the things I'm teaching you, you're looking at that and seeing how this price react to it. Now, the reason why I'm teaching this, |
| 135 | 00:32:34,140 --> 00:32:45,510 | and teaching this way of doing it, is because you don't know, I don't know which specific model or approach and what is your multiplier going to be? What's the |
| 136 | 00:32:45,510 --> 00:32:53,430 | PD array that's going to use continuously more than anything else? Is it really a fair value got even though you probably have warmed up to the idea, because of |
| 137 | 00:32:53,430 --> 00:33:02,040 | what I shared what people are making money with now. But that might not be the one you settle in on it might be a volume imbalance. That's your pattern. That's |
| 138 | 00:33:02,040 --> 00:33:10,110 | the thing you look for. That's the thing that gets you in a trade. But you won't know that until you do what have someone that's going to be identifying them |
| 139 | 00:33:10,110 --> 00:33:19,140 | real time. Whether it be like this, or whether it be on my Twitter feed where I'm calling out this specific candles, say, Okay, now this one, pay attention to |
| 140 | 00:33:19,140 --> 00:33:26,760 | this one. That's not an invitation to buy or sell. That's not what that is. Clearly, you can see if I want to tell you, I'm going to be in a trade, I did it |
| 141 | 00:33:26,760 --> 00:33:39,270 | today. I don't want to do that part, because you're not going to learn anything from that by watching price, and seeing which one of these PD arrays, breaker |
| 142 | 00:33:39,480 --> 00:33:53,610 | order block. Fair Value got optimal trade entry, institutional order flow entry drill, mitigation block, whatever one that you see, when I call it out, they |
| 143 | 00:33:53,610 --> 00:34:01,110 | will repeat over and over again. The ones that you see clearly that's easy, I saw that I was looking at that I knew he was going to mention that referring to |
| 144 | 00:34:01,110 --> 00:34:09,420 | myself when I'm talking about it, then that's the one you're probably most suited for. And doesn't that make much more sense. Learning from someone that |
| 145 | 00:34:09,420 --> 00:34:18,960 | allows you to bring something of your own personality, your own comfort, your observations are peaked around a specific element in price action that makes |
| 146 | 00:34:18,960 --> 00:34:29,160 | sense to you. versus me saying, Listen, you're only going to be able to trade the fair value gap. This is the only way you can make money that's too dogmatic. |
| 147 | 00:34:30,360 --> 00:34:42,210 | And sometimes, I can come across like that in some of my animated lectures and talking points. But I'm a realist, and I understand that and that's not going to |
| 148 | 00:34:42,750 --> 00:34:51,360 | fit everyone. You're all going to have your own personalities and quirky little things that you bring to your trading. And you have to make allowances for that |
| 149 | 00:34:51,360 --> 00:35:02,610 | and I certainly have to do so. As a mentor as an educator. It's a testimony to a good teacher that you give the student For the opportunity to discover |
| 150 | 00:35:02,610 --> 00:35:10,440 | themselves, using the concepts using the principles that you're, you're teaching. So that way, it allows them to feel confident in themselves because |
| 151 | 00:35:10,440 --> 00:35:20,190 | they brought their own expression, if you will, or personality and internalization of price action, but using the same tools, it allows you as the |
| 152 | 00:35:20,190 --> 00:35:29,280 | student to be more hands on on the actual development of the model versus me saying, here's the only way you can trade my concepts, which is never going to |
| 153 | 00:35:29,280 --> 00:35:38,460 | happen. There's lots of different ways to do what I teach. And each one of you can have an incompletely unique model, using the same stuff I've taught, it |
| 154 | 00:35:38,460 --> 00:35:49,710 | sounds crazy, I know, like it couldn't possibly be like that. But it is. And you want to have a mentor, that's going to be able to give you that opportunity. And |
| 155 | 00:35:49,710 --> 00:36:01,620 | unfortunately, it's so many copy me, you mimic me, you can come here we'll have somebody that's going to earn your funded account for you, or you don't pay, |
| 156 | 00:36:02,160 --> 00:36:03,150 | you've seen this ad yet. |
| 157 | 00:36:08,580 --> 00:36:18,510 | I think they changed it to, if we don't get you funded, you'll get free signals from the guy that's going to be doing it for you. Until you do that sounds less |
| 158 | 00:36:18,510 --> 00:36:40,980 | than a refund, right? Anyway. So all the things that I was calling out this morning, every individual PD array, that that skill set that you're looking for, |
| 159 | 00:36:40,980 --> 00:36:51,930 | as far as reading price, the days on that live streaming, and then there'll be times in the sessions that I won't be active on Twitter. And like, I didn't want |
| 160 | 00:36:51,930 --> 00:36:58,140 | to really do anything today, because it feels like someone's sitting my forehead, like I have a lot of pressure in my sinuses. And it's probably more |
| 161 | 00:36:58,140 --> 00:37:07,320 | information you want to hear about, but I just don't feel well. But I know that Friday's tomorrow, if I am getting ill, I'm going to be more inclined to want to |
| 162 | 00:37:07,320 --> 00:37:14,820 | stay in bed tomorrow. And I won't be able to hit the second live stream. But I promised you that we would have these, it's week going forward. So here I am |
| 163 | 00:37:14,820 --> 00:37:24,000 | doing this one. So I'm gonna kind of incorporate a little bit of a review in this too. So coming like two birds, one stone type thing, kind of like what I |
| 164 | 00:37:24,000 --> 00:37:37,410 | did last night. But when we have time away from each other, when I'm not talking to you via Twitter, and when I'm not doing a live session, you want to be doing |
| 165 | 00:37:38,730 --> 00:37:48,720 | live tape reading when you can. And if you can't, then you do it with old data that you preferably recorded live on your screen that record all day, or watch |
| 166 | 00:37:48,720 --> 00:37:59,280 | it on Market Replay, which is unfortunate, because that's not the same as watching the candle form. Every time it goes up, it has created the equal |
| 167 | 00:37:59,280 --> 00:38:07,890 | unknown higher, higher, higher, that comes off that high. So you don't get that but Market Replay, you get the open one little change. And then it closes and go |
| 168 | 00:38:07,890 --> 00:38:17,580 | to the next candle. And that's the same thing. So I was like only like two fluctuations per candle in trading views Market Replay, which to me next to |
| 169 | 00:38:17,580 --> 00:38:28,500 | nothing, it's good. But it's better to use a resource where you can record your screen and let the chart just paint you while you're sleeping while you're at |
| 170 | 00:38:28,530 --> 00:38:37,260 | work while you're at school while in whatever you're doing. And that way you can come back and study it real time. And pause it when you think you see something, |
| 171 | 00:38:37,260 --> 00:38:48,540 | pause it, screenshot that, annotate it and then let the chart or let the chart paint going forward again. And that is the best way that you can do if you're |
| 172 | 00:38:48,540 --> 00:39:01,260 | not watching it live. That's the best way of doing it. So if you're I guess capable of using OBS, which I'm still fumbling around with, that's what I'm |
| 173 | 00:39:01,260 --> 00:39:11,580 | using to livestream. It tends to be like the most popular medium to use, I guess, but I'm not an expert in it. But I think it was pretty easy to get to |
| 174 | 00:39:11,580 --> 00:39:24,840 | this part. So you can record your screen with that. And it didn't cost anything. You just download the app off of the internet. And then just record, set your |
| 175 | 00:39:24,840 --> 00:39:32,490 | charts up, set them onto a record and just go do whatever you're gonna do, whether it be sleep or work. And then you come back, sit down, roll your sleeves |
| 176 | 00:39:32,490 --> 00:39:41,790 | up and your uncomfort of looking at the charts where you're under you're not distracted you're not worrying about what I'm saying. And probably maybe do that |
| 177 | 00:39:41,790 --> 00:39:51,420 | on your weekends. Instead of watching the the football games and golf. Why do people even watch golf? Like I get the fact that you know, dudes want to go out |
| 178 | 00:39:51,420 --> 00:40:01,230 | there and hang out and talk it up. But I can't I can't get into that. Like I don't even see that as a sport but it's Instead of doing those things on the |
| 179 | 00:40:01,230 --> 00:40:10,140 | weekend, and please don't get in, because you probably like golf and such, but I don't even know why that jumped in my head. But I'm not a big sports fan. And I |
| 180 | 00:40:10,140 --> 00:40:17,820 | just think that the weekends are wasted on that type of thing. And if you're doing that, this year, you're wasting really good opportunities. Watch this area |
| 181 | 00:40:17,820 --> 00:40:40,410 | over here, the remaining balance of that gap between their high in this low, that little tiny area, yeah, that's what I'm looking at. Because this is, for a |
| 182 | 00:40:40,410 --> 00:40:54,990 | gentleman I promised I would talk a little bit about today. If we are Miss assume for a moment that you were expecting price to go down to that 41 03 |
| 183 | 00:40:54,990 --> 00:41:11,460 | level. Okay. And you saw this setup up here. You saw a price straight up into this fair value gap, move it away, so you can see it. This candles low, this |
| 184 | 00:41:11,460 --> 00:41:23,460 | candle is high, and this candle passes through between the previous candles low and the next candle is high. There's no overlap of this candle up inside that |
| 185 | 00:41:23,460 --> 00:41:33,930 | range until we get to here. So that little shade area that I put on my charts that my students do now to that little area is where if you were looking at a |
| 186 | 00:41:33,930 --> 00:41:49,680 | paint, roller, and paint roller applies paint to the wall rolls down. This little area is like a pocket of where the paint wasn't really thick. It wasn't |
| 187 | 00:41:49,680 --> 00:41:56,820 | evenly distributed to the wall, and the wall would be like this chart canvas. Okay, if there was no charts on this at all, it would be a blank canvas like a |
| 188 | 00:41:56,820 --> 00:42:10,290 | wall before the painter puts the roller and delivers the paint on the wall. Well, as it drops down like this from here to here. This is where like when you |
| 189 | 00:42:10,290 --> 00:42:18,900 | take that roller, if you ever painted anything, or watch a painter, use a roller, when they first apply that roller to the wall. The paint is really |
| 190 | 00:42:18,900 --> 00:42:28,740 | thick. It's it's ample, it's delivered abundantly to the wall. And as that roller continuously rolls in the direction it starts rolling in when you first |
| 191 | 00:42:28,740 --> 00:42:38,460 | apply it to the wall. Eventually, they'll there'll be small little pores, little pockets, where paint did not distribute to the wall. So the surface of wall will |
| 192 | 00:42:38,460 --> 00:42:48,810 | have what little spots. And that is much like what we're seeing here where the paint comes in. It applies to the wall, keep going down, keep going down. But |
| 193 | 00:42:48,810 --> 00:42:59,760 | now if you look back, there's a small little area here, where in an ideal world, the painter would take that roller, apply more paint to it and then do what roll |
| 194 | 00:42:59,760 --> 00:43:09,600 | back up overtop this little area in this little area. And then he can move on to another area of the wall where he hasn't painted yet. Does that make sense? To |
| 195 | 00:43:09,600 --> 00:43:15,570 | me that makes sense as an analogy, because if it would have been taught to me when I first learned how to read price action, it would have made a whole lot |
| 196 | 00:43:15,570 --> 00:43:24,780 | more sense versus overbought, oversold. You know, what swing high is the real one with divergence? And what trendline do I use? What's my moving average |
| 197 | 00:43:24,780 --> 00:43:34,500 | settings? You know, what RSI setting? Should I have my set on? You know, what do I use MACD histogram, or use the moving crossovers, all the stuff that was a |
| 198 | 00:43:34,500 --> 00:43:45,150 | waste of my time, these are the things that would have been more beneficial to me, which is the nuts and bolts of price action. So looking at where the the |
| 199 | 00:43:45,150 --> 00:43:58,500 | market can go back in and do what replenish paint to the canvas, put put more paint that in an area where it needs it. So when you look at price action, and |
| 200 | 00:43:58,500 --> 00:44:07,830 | you identify these little areas like this, you think it's going down here, see, the painter needs the paint down to this level here to finish the job, the price |
| 201 | 00:44:07,830 --> 00:44:17,010 | run, the algorithm will want to go down there. But it has to do what it has to deliver the market efficiently. Otherwise, it's a straight line like CPI. When |
| 202 | 00:44:17,010 --> 00:44:29,670 | that market data comes out. What happens? Markets is doing nothing until CPI number all of a sudden you have a vertical line. That's it. That's it. It's up |
| 203 | 00:44:29,670 --> 00:44:36,750 | to you. All you have is a vertical line that keeps expanding. You can't trade that you can't do anything with it, except for regret that you were in the |
| 204 | 00:44:36,750 --> 00:44:46,380 | trade. It's not going to respect your stop loss. It's going to laugh at you. It's going to literally make you feel like you're a fool. You should have never |
| 205 | 00:44:46,380 --> 00:44:55,200 | done that. And you should feel that way because the CPI is an absolute freight train. Like you're literally trying to play chicken with a freight train. It's |
| 206 | 00:44:55,200 --> 00:45:06,780 | coming right out you hit me it will stand on those tracks it will do that endure drag you for miles gate into your accounts gone, or you lose your sanity. So you |
| 207 | 00:45:06,780 --> 00:45:14,550 | have to know where price is going to go. Much like the painter, when he looks at that wall, wherever he's going to start with whoever be the left side of the |
| 208 | 00:45:14,550 --> 00:45:23,250 | wall, the uppermost part of the wall and lower part of the wall wherever he starts. Okay, that's the point of inception when he puts that paint on the wall. |
| 209 | 00:45:24,780 --> 00:45:36,900 | Now his jobs begun, now he has to paint the entire surface. Just watch anybody just go on YouTube, say, painter using a paint roller. And you'll see exactly |
| 210 | 00:45:36,900 --> 00:45:45,450 | what I'm talking about in an analogy, where, let's assume for a moment, you're starting on a wall in the lower right hand corner, and you apply the paint you |
| 211 | 00:45:45,450 --> 00:45:55,680 | put on the wall, maybe the top end, you start there, instead of the bottom, top end, you apply the roller and you drag it down over the wall, the first 12 to |
| 212 | 00:45:55,680 --> 00:46:06,000 | 1820 inches of the surface of the wall has a beautiful delivery of paint, it's thick, there's no pockets, there's no pores, little parts that get to go back |
| 213 | 00:46:06,000 --> 00:46:15,600 | and roll back over top of immediately. You just roll until what? You feel like you're not getting any paint coming out anymore. So what does the painter do? He |
| 214 | 00:46:15,600 --> 00:46:26,910 | rolls right back over that same pathway to gather excessive amounts of paint, that's not necessary to be in that same area. So it's going to collect more |
| 215 | 00:46:26,910 --> 00:46:39,180 | paint evenly distribute any areas that have these little pockets where paint hasn't been distributed. So reapplies in old areas, yes. What does that mean? In |
| 216 | 00:46:39,180 --> 00:46:51,810 | this area here, paint was a price was offered both directions. So from this candles high, in this candles low, the next candle opens up here, it trades back |
| 217 | 00:46:51,810 --> 00:47:00,510 | down and runs over top of what this candles low was, and then it rallies all the way back up to this point. So it leaves what it leaves this little area as a |
| 218 | 00:47:00,510 --> 00:47:11,820 | whole or a pocket where price did not go back over where it went down. And between this candles low. And this candles Hi, this is inefficient. This right |
| 219 | 00:47:11,820 --> 00:47:23,970 | here is an inefficiency in price delivery. Price operates on a price continuum, okay. And it's a efficiency continuum, meaning that the market has to |
| 220 | 00:47:23,970 --> 00:47:38,430 | continuously offer fair value. And fair value is evolving all the time throughout the day. And every time it creates a inefficiency like this, it will |
| 221 | 00:47:38,460 --> 00:47:48,060 | seek that and go back up into it. Now it will over deliver just like a paint roller will, the painter will roll back over areas where it's already had paint |
| 222 | 00:47:48,060 --> 00:47:56,760 | delivered to the wall, right? You've seen that there's no way to do what you can't just paint one little pathway on your wall, and then come over to the left |
| 223 | 00:47:56,760 --> 00:48:04,200 | a little bit and come back down and not overlap, you want to overlap. And that's exactly what's occurring in price action. Because look at the range in between |
| 224 | 00:48:04,200 --> 00:48:14,910 | here. This candles high and this candles low, the market has traded down, and it also traded up here. So in this little area here, on a micro scale, this is a |
| 225 | 00:48:14,910 --> 00:48:25,650 | small little bounce price range. When the bodies of these candles came back up into this fair value get identified with this little area right there in price, |
| 226 | 00:48:25,890 --> 00:48:39,420 | that little segment right there. Look where the bodies go. See where it stops, the closing price on this candle is 41 16.75. What's the low of this candle? |
| 227 | 00:48:42,210 --> 00:48:53,730 | 41 16.75. That's perfect. That's a signature that shows you the markets algorithmic retail logic, nothing out there says trade with these levels like |
| 228 | 00:48:53,730 --> 00:49:02,430 | this. Because if they did that, if they knew that they would tell you where to put trendlines at. Whereas right now, up until this moment, at the time I'm |
| 229 | 00:49:02,430 --> 00:49:13,320 | talking, nobody tells you what specific price levels that drop off a trendline on. If you ask 1000 Different traders, if say we had a live like a session where |
| 230 | 00:49:13,530 --> 00:49:21,270 | I was in front of a stadium of people. I don't foresee me doing this, but let's just for the sake of argument, say that's what we're doing here. And I said |
| 231 | 00:49:21,270 --> 00:49:27,840 | okay, everybody raise your hand. If you never use trendline of course everybody's gonna raise your hand. So yeah, this is what we do. And say I threw |
| 232 | 00:49:27,840 --> 00:49:34,440 | out a beach ball, three or four beach balls and we bounced around to the media stop and whatever the music stopped, whoever had the beach ball in their hand, |
| 233 | 00:49:34,560 --> 00:49:42,570 | they get to come up on stage with ICT and I said okay, here, here's chart, you all have the same chart. You can't look at each other can't copy, draw the |
| 234 | 00:49:42,570 --> 00:49:52,530 | trendline that's most important to you right now. What do you see? And they're all going to be different. And you wonder why retail traders are inconsistent. |
| 235 | 00:49:53,790 --> 00:50:06,270 | They have no premise behind finding consistency because they're con simply doing something different, and not maintaining a rigid approach with rule based ideas, |
| 236 | 00:50:06,540 --> 00:50:18,000 | my rigid approach to rule based ideas are my PD arrays within the context of market structure within a bias that's been derived by a narrative, which is also |
| 237 | 00:50:18,030 --> 00:50:28,560 | leaning heavily on a higher timeframe, pemra premise, which is a weekly chart, I'm doing the same things all the time. But the things I'm doing are very |
| 238 | 00:50:28,560 --> 00:50:44,790 | specific, like, knowing a very specific level, this candles low 41 16.75 happens to agree with the closing price on that candle. What's the next candles? Body, |
| 239 | 00:50:45,150 --> 00:50:58,620 | it's the open, it's the same thing. The open price is 41 16.75. Now, just like that paint roller, when it delivers over top of old areas where it has delivered |
| 240 | 00:50:58,620 --> 00:51:11,040 | paint, much the painter, the overlap of it, why they why did they do that, it makes sure there's no seams. If buttons up, everything completely smooths out, |
| 241 | 00:51:12,060 --> 00:51:20,670 | and feathers, the edge of an old run on paint being delivered to the wall, and then you apply it back over top of it just a little bit. Kind of like when when |
| 242 | 00:51:20,670 --> 00:51:27,990 | gentlemen, when you cut the grass the lawn, you cut the grass and you come back over and you're not trying to line up where the edge of the last pass with the |
| 243 | 00:51:27,990 --> 00:51:36,210 | mower was, you're going to overlap a little bit why? Because you don't want to waste your time going back here again. Right? Well, that's why the algorithm is |
| 244 | 00:51:36,210 --> 00:51:47,340 | coded this way, it wants to efficiently go back and reprice. So you'll see these little areas here, which I'm going to borrow this now. This area here is where |
| 245 | 00:51:47,370 --> 00:52:00,150 | this candle is low, I mean, take it away a little bit further, you can see the difference. So this candles low. Here, this candles low, and this candle is |
| 246 | 00:52:00,150 --> 00:52:14,340 | high, high and low, it's passed back and forth between that shaded area both directions. So when we have this past backup into the actual fair pay gap, that |
| 247 | 00:52:14,340 --> 00:52:23,310 | low to that high with this one single candle here, my eye is trained to look for that in price, I'm teaching my students that look for that too. You're gonna try |
| 248 | 00:52:23,310 --> 00:52:35,280 | to enter in that, where going short, at that candles high, or the midpoint in between, you can if you really want to try to be a precise, you know, fanatic, |
| 249 | 00:52:35,460 --> 00:52:42,930 | you can try to get the fill at the high end. But many times I've tried to do that, and it doesn't go there and leaves a small little portion open. In this |
| 250 | 00:52:42,930 --> 00:52:53,820 | case, what I'm illustrating here is the efficiency of the algorithm coming back into an area that's already balanced, but it's covering up and overlapping an |
| 251 | 00:52:53,820 --> 00:53:04,170 | area where it's already traded, too, which is why you're getting this in this. That's not an error. It's not a deficiency on precision either. It's just making |
| 252 | 00:53:04,170 --> 00:53:12,960 | sure there's no seams, everything's been offered efficiently. But the body's telling you the real story, this is where the damage is done the wicks. But the |
| 253 | 00:53:12,990 --> 00:53:22,440 | real narrative and what price is doing is you have to study the bodies. That's where the real storyline is. And you can see how it comes right up into there |
| 254 | 00:53:22,440 --> 00:53:31,920 | and stops this part of these wicks okay, you have to accept the fact that your trades are going to have that much drawdown if you're entering in here and |
| 255 | 00:53:31,920 --> 00:53:43,350 | consequent encroachment. Okay, in this range here, we have what it's it's balanced, it's done both passes, this candle went down to this low and then this |
| 256 | 00:53:43,350 --> 00:53:53,490 | candle opened here, and then went up this much. So I'm not worrying about all this here I'm saying the difference between this candles low and this candle is |
| 257 | 00:53:53,490 --> 00:54:06,030 | high. Those two ranges present a range of price action that has in this interval of what is it four minutes each close to two minutes. In four minutes price has |
| 258 | 00:54:06,030 --> 00:54:16,830 | gone back and forth in here. And you you're going to hear other people say these lower timeframe charts or or noise they're not noise. It's telling you what |
| 259 | 00:54:16,830 --> 00:54:23,220 | price is doing. Whether you're looking at this chart timeframe or if you're looking at an hourly chart or a daily chart if you're staring at a daily chart |
| 260 | 00:54:24,060 --> 00:54:35,250 | is the daily chart if you watch it from the time that the markets open at 930 to five o'clock when it closes for our our session of deadtime if you simply watch |
| 261 | 00:54:35,250 --> 00:54:41,490 | price on that daily candlestick versus us watching it on the lower timeframe, is price doing anything different? |
| 262 | 00:54:42,810 --> 00:54:51,870 | It's doing the same thing. It's this this you're doing the same thing, but we're using the benefit of a time based chart and you're gonna goobers out they're |
| 263 | 00:54:51,870 --> 00:54:59,850 | gonna tell you time based charts don't work. Time based charts don't work if you trade retail logic that is true but I don't trade retail logic we don't trade |
| 264 | 00:54:59,850 --> 00:55:12,330 | right Tell logic, I'm teaching you how to use time based theory to identify what the market algorithm. Okay? There's only one algorithm, that's the price engine |
| 265 | 00:55:12,330 --> 00:55:22,380 | that delivers this. You're never going to convince anyone, especially in this community, that these things here are being met. Because buyers and sellers that |
| 266 | 00:55:22,380 --> 00:55:35,250 | use retail logic all come together. And through sheer coincidence, it just happens to be perfect. Come on, it's no, no, no, I don't even want to entertain |
| 267 | 00:55:35,250 --> 00:55:42,450 | any more. When I see people comment and say that stuff, I immediately mute them. I'll never see another comment from that person. Again, you're not being blocked |
| 268 | 00:55:42,570 --> 00:55:48,510 | from my Twitter feed, but I just don't want to hear from you. Because you're literally closing your eyes, putting fingers in your ears. And then and then |
| 269 | 00:55:48,510 --> 00:55:57,600 | that you don't want to hear it. Okay? I don't want to see your nonsense, because to me, all it's going to do is trigger me, I can't stand seeing people deny, |
| 270 | 00:55:58,020 --> 00:56:05,700 | deny the evidence laid in front of them, it's right in front of them over and over and over again. But they won't appreciate it because it flies in the face |
| 271 | 00:56:05,700 --> 00:56:15,840 | of whatever they believe is the real things. And the things that they're holding on to probably isn't even this precise, which to me is madness. But I'm becoming |
| 272 | 00:56:15,840 --> 00:56:29,970 | a little too dogmatic here, let me dial it back. So we have this overlapping into this area, what is this entire range from this low, to this high right |
| 273 | 00:56:29,970 --> 00:56:41,280 | there, watch this. There's a fair bit you got. Now if you know that the algorithm is going to do the same thing you're going to do when you cut your |
| 274 | 00:56:41,280 --> 00:56:46,680 | lawn in the springtime, when the grass is growing, you're gonna go out there with your mower, or the guy that you're going to hire to cut your grass for you |
| 275 | 00:56:46,680 --> 00:56:55,950 | like I do, and cuts line cut and chip, the overlapping of that mower, where do you just pass through the and cutting the grass down the first pass, then you're |
| 276 | 00:56:55,950 --> 00:57:04,650 | gonna turn them around, or they're going to turn them around, and they're gonna lay their wheel over top of what was already cut. So that way, there's no seam, |
| 277 | 00:57:04,650 --> 00:57:12,570 | right? So you when you make a new paths, you're always cutting through cutting through in not leaving that little segment of grass where you gotta go, I left a |
| 278 | 00:57:12,570 --> 00:57:23,250 | mohawk. Gotta go back in here. My son's the few times I've asked him to do the lawn. They hate it because they know my obsessive compulsiveness is going to |
| 279 | 00:57:23,430 --> 00:57:30,270 | force me to go to the window and see what they're doing. And I'm waiting for them to leave a little Mohawk in the grass. And as soon as I see it, I'm out |
| 280 | 00:57:30,270 --> 00:57:37,590 | there, hey, hey, go back and get that. And they flip out because they they thought they were going to get away with it. But you can see it, you can see it |
| 281 | 00:57:37,590 --> 00:57:46,560 | in the grass, you don't want to leave that. So that's what these little things are here preventing any little Mohawks in the lawn. And I'm giving all kinds of |
| 282 | 00:57:46,560 --> 00:57:53,220 | analogies, but this stuff makes sense to me. If it doesn't make sense to you then, you know, I'm sorry. But if you look at that balance price range between |
| 283 | 00:57:53,220 --> 00:58:01,440 | this candles low and this candle is high. Here's our target right there. screenshot that. And that's the level I told you here to pretty, pretty cherry |
| 284 | 00:58:01,440 --> 00:58:15,510 | picked, isn't it? I see T slamming the range between this low and that high. If we measure that and you get a midpoint level. That is mean threshold. Why |
| 285 | 00:58:15,510 --> 00:58:26,250 | because we're measuring candlesticks that have bodies. If it were a gap like this fair pay gap, the midpoint is consequent encroachment. Consequent |
| 286 | 00:58:26,760 --> 00:58:38,430 | encroachment is what is permissible within a range. Let me make this a little bit smaller. See if we get that 9050 Like I mentioned on Twitter, because I feel |
| 287 | 00:58:38,430 --> 00:58:48,240 | like peacock if it hits that my wife is going to see me doing the Mick Jagger walk moves like Jagger. Don't worry, I'll come back up to that balanced price |
| 288 | 00:58:48,240 --> 00:58:51,600 | range in a moment. Some of you already figured out what I'm going to go and talk about in a second. |
| 289 | 00:58:57,270 --> 00:59:13,110 | We'll give it time to cook. So over here we have 4117 point 50 It just so happens randomly with buying and selling pressure being as it is completely |
| 290 | 00:59:13,110 --> 00:59:22,740 | random. How far can I overshoot this fair Vega? Well, what's the what's the midpoint between this candles low on this candle is high for that balanced price |
| 291 | 00:59:22,740 --> 00:59:46,560 | range? 4,117.50 What's the high on this candle right there? 4,117.50 Oops. So it takes more of a religious faith based madness to believe that all these things |
| 292 | 00:59:46,560 --> 00:59:53,880 | that I'm teaching you, okay? All these things that I tell you to go in and look and see if they're really in the market. If they're really in the marketplace. |
| 293 | 00:59:54,270 --> 01:00:06,570 | It begs the question how the hell does it keep happening? How does it keep happening? See, these are the things I was sitting in my aunt's bedroom. After |
| 294 | 01:00:06,570 --> 01:00:14,310 | working 13 and a half hours a day, doing a 45 minute commute in 20 minutes speeding, I guess I was breaking the law. Never wear seatbelts either. And I |
| 295 | 01:00:14,310 --> 01:00:24,450 | rarely wear one still today. But I'm a rebel. I would sit in there. And I look at these charts. And I started looking at these things in these turning points. |
| 296 | 01:00:24,480 --> 01:00:35,970 | And like what happens continuously all the time at these turning points? And I started seeing this in the bond market in the s&p market. And then I said, Well, |
| 297 | 01:00:35,970 --> 01:00:49,530 | let me see if it occurs in the currency futures. It was, it's there. So I said, Okay, I need to know, I need to know, did I see something I'm not supposed to |
| 298 | 01:00:49,530 --> 01:00:58,080 | see. So I took all of my money. Every time I made new money, I would buy more books and more courses and more books and more courses. And for the Yahoo's out |
| 299 | 01:00:58,080 --> 01:01:07,830 | there to say that I have rebranded things old terminology, rebranded with new terms, this stuff is in no books, no other author ever talked about it, it's |
| 300 | 01:01:07,830 --> 01:01:16,920 | never been touched on until I've said it. It, which is the reason why I challenge every one of my viewers watch, it's gonna hit our target here. When I |
| 301 | 01:01:18,540 --> 01:01:33,570 | told you so moments, don't look at that. That's a random, acceleration down and touch, we probably get a big down day, earlier in the day, if we get through |
| 302 | 01:01:33,570 --> 01:01:42,480 | that new week opening gap. So I have a lot of fun. I'm not, I'm not beating my chest, I'm just thumbing my nose at the people that like to say, I can't do |
| 303 | 01:01:42,480 --> 01:01:49,800 | this, that these things don't work. And it's cherry picked. And I had a small win. When I had the win of the day, I called everything you've seen it, it's |
| 304 | 01:01:49,800 --> 01:01:58,650 | here again. I want you to learn. But if you can't get out of your way of your own ego and your pride, because you don't know this, and you can't do it yet. |
| 305 | 01:01:59,040 --> 01:02:04,530 | And I'm probably killing your business because you can't sell your stuff anymore. And you're getting your guy strings and losing 15,000 hours of fake |
| 306 | 01:02:04,530 --> 01:02:12,990 | money, but calling it live. I get it. It's a struggle point for you. But I'm not trying to be your adversary. Just learn from me, you don't ever have to mention |
| 307 | 01:02:12,990 --> 01:02:20,280 | me, I just want to see you do better. And you don't have to communicate to me if you want to keep it in private. That's wonderful. I just want to see all of you |
| 308 | 01:02:20,280 --> 01:02:28,560 | do well not get hurt because these markets are not random. They're not. But back that bounce price range, and we'll see what we get later on. I'm gonna focus on |
| 309 | 01:02:28,560 --> 01:02:44,340 | here. Some of your thinking, Damon, I shouldn't have closed the trade when he did. There's a lesson in there. So it nails that level perfectly. Then it moves |
| 310 | 01:02:44,340 --> 01:02:58,290 | lower. And it leaves this area here. One more time, it trades to it. Love it one more time making sure there's no Mohawks in the lawn. It's seamless, and then it |
| 311 | 01:02:58,290 --> 01:03:08,760 | breaks lower. One more time it trades up. What is it going back up into consequent encroachment of this gap midpoint hits it when you see that. As soon |
| 312 | 01:03:08,760 --> 01:03:17,790 | as you see that? You're thinking, Okay, this is the last time it's going to do it. Why? Because this has already went up to the midpoint this area here and |
| 313 | 01:03:17,820 --> 01:03:29,730 | why? Because your targets your terminus, the levels that you're expecting and looking for. That's where it's going to draw to. Just like when you're sitting |
| 314 | 01:03:29,940 --> 01:03:36,600 | down to figure out we're going to cut the lawn. When you start making mellower paths overtop your lawn, you know, you got to keep doing it until you get to the |
| 315 | 01:03:36,600 --> 01:03:43,170 | end of the lawn while the end of the lawn is down here. So you got to keep constantly doing what apply the paint to the wall or keep pushing that mower |
| 316 | 01:03:43,170 --> 01:03:56,940 | until it goes to completion. The completion is time and price. So we're in that last hour of trading three o'clock hour, the markets delivering into our |
| 317 | 01:03:56,940 --> 01:04:06,030 | objectives, the one I gave you on Twitter, we already hit it and once they went past that, that's fine. But when it goes up into this level here, you're |
| 318 | 01:04:06,030 --> 01:04:21,180 | anticipating it to do what? Never, never go back up here. It no it has no need to do that. But what can it do? What's permissible, it can go back inside the |
| 319 | 01:04:21,180 --> 01:04:31,500 | sphere Vega because why this is an old inefficiency in price. Whereas this the difference between this candle is low on this candle is hot here. This is |
| 320 | 01:04:31,530 --> 01:04:44,910 | efficient. What makes it efficient. It's traded both directions in between this candles low on this candle is high. So price is effectively permitting balance |
| 321 | 01:04:45,690 --> 01:04:56,790 | in order flow and price delivery price delivery is every time there's a new price tick and there's new fluctuation in price action that's delivery. That |
| 322 | 01:04:56,820 --> 01:05:12,360 | that's the market being presented a new A valuation on an asset. So what we're doing is we're measuring how often that delivery of price. How many times within |
| 323 | 01:05:12,360 --> 01:05:24,090 | a range specific to time, which is these two specific candles here? How many times has it passed through the same range of a specific number of prices, |
| 324 | 01:05:24,240 --> 01:05:39,210 | meaning that this candle is high here comes in at 4118, and a quarter point two, five. And this candles low here comes in at 41 16.75. So between those two price |
| 325 | 01:05:39,210 --> 01:05:50,580 | points, price went down, and then this candle here opened, went up, and then went down again. So this entire range between candle high and can low is |
| 326 | 01:05:50,640 --> 01:06:02,310 | balanced. It can go back up into the midpoint of that that's normal, I allow for that. In my analysis, when I'm reading price, I allow for it to go up to |
| 327 | 01:06:02,310 --> 01:06:11,730 | halfway, it's rare that it will go all the way back up to the top of a balanced price range, it can, it just means that I'm probably getting ready to bail on |
| 328 | 01:06:11,730 --> 01:06:23,610 | the trade if I'm using that as a point of interest to measure if these PD arrays are able to stave off in advance or retracement against my trade. So I'm |
| 329 | 01:06:23,610 --> 01:06:32,070 | treating these PD arrays like you are being taught to use support and resistance, but never get them to work, right. Whereas the algorithm is going to |
| 330 | 01:06:32,070 --> 01:06:42,480 | go into these specific little signatures and price action that cannot be hidden from you. It can't hide it from you folks. That should be exciting. It's not |
| 331 | 01:06:42,480 --> 01:06:51,360 | like they're gonna be able to go out there tomorrow and turn off candlesticks we all are you going to stop using a clock? Raise your hand in the audience right |
| 332 | 01:06:51,360 --> 01:06:58,950 | now. If you're gonna say The hell with this I'm not using a clock I'm getting rid of my watches. I'm never going to look at the time anymore. That's absurd. |
| 333 | 01:06:59,880 --> 01:07:18,570 | And that's the first primary function of what price does it follows time it does things at specific times then it delivers price based on the efficiency and the |
| 334 | 01:07:18,600 --> 01:07:29,100 | price delivery continuum it has to continuously offer fair value if the market runs too quick one direction and it goes down like it does here in this one |
| 335 | 01:07:29,100 --> 01:07:29,550 | candle |
| 336 | 01:07:31,020 --> 01:07:40,650 | is it fair and that's probably not the best term of using for describing this but for the sake of making it easy to understand because fairness is not really |
| 337 | 01:07:41,220 --> 01:07:50,100 | the the goal here for these markets. But if the market drops down like this and leaves this little separation between this candles low and this candle is high, |
| 338 | 01:07:50,490 --> 01:08:01,140 | there was no overlap no other candle after this candle closes no other candle printed within the price range between this candles high and that candles low in |
| 339 | 01:08:01,140 --> 01:08:10,680 | between these these three candles is that small little segment of price action creates that little pocket of little pores price action hole. It needs to be |
| 340 | 01:08:10,680 --> 01:08:20,640 | filled in. Okay? Think of it like a like a pothole on the road. Okay, you're going down the road, hey, boom, you just blew out your front of alignment. |
| 341 | 01:08:21,210 --> 01:08:29,280 | You're gonna call the state Hey, you so and so's I just tore my my thing up? Well, where is it? What my walker let me go back, I drive back up to areas Mr. |
| 342 | 01:08:29,280 --> 01:08:40,710 | amacher. And there it is. Silly little analogies, but I use these types of things that teach my kids. And I tried to explain every possible scenario with |
| 343 | 01:08:40,710 --> 01:08:50,490 | my wife. And I still haven't figured out an analogy where it makes sense to her. She just thinks it's video games, whatever. But the fair value gap can be |
| 344 | 01:08:50,490 --> 01:09:02,040 | revisited entirely. And that's what we see here. Notice that these wicks trade up into that same old inefficiency. It's here, it's here. All this is is a |
| 345 | 01:09:02,040 --> 01:09:11,460 | reclaimed fair value got reclaimed means it's simply went back to it and treating it as you would expect a resistance level to be respecting. If it's |
| 346 | 01:09:11,460 --> 01:09:21,570 | going to go lower. It's going to do what's going to go up fail go up, reject it and send it lower. Wonderful. Wonderful. That's exactly what you want to see. |
| 347 | 01:09:21,570 --> 01:09:31,620 | You want to see that. You should not be freaking out when the markets rallying up back to these areas here because we have this behind it as balanced price |
| 348 | 01:09:31,620 --> 01:09:44,880 | range. This is kind of like the the defender, okay, it's the linebacker of price action. It's saying you can only go so far Jack. You're not getting through me. |
| 349 | 01:09:44,910 --> 01:09:54,300 | It's the iron wall. Okay, you're saying no. Can't get through me. So everything's coming short of that or falling short of this. Hang on one second. |
| 350 | 01:09:54,300 --> 01:10:05,490 | I gotta fix these headsets really uncomfortable. So if If we see any kind of retracement back up into a fair Vega, that's reasonable. And you're gonna see me |
| 351 | 01:10:05,580 --> 01:10:15,690 | explain this. And you're gonna see your experience seeing it happen. When I'm calling specific fair value gaps, and it returns back to them. Sometimes it'll |
| 352 | 01:10:15,690 --> 01:10:25,050 | go through them, like we were looking at this morning, there was nothing in there for a trade. Nothing until I saw one fair value get retreated back, I |
| 353 | 01:10:25,050 --> 01:10:32,370 | said, Okay, we're going to use the fair value, the fair value gap again, I tried to take a trade on it, and it just wasn't working out for me, and I had to kill |
| 354 | 01:10:32,370 --> 01:10:42,300 | it. And I would have stopped out and I mentioned it on Twitter, if I'd have held my full stop. That's human error. You're gonna you're gonna do it wrong to |
| 355 | 01:10:43,260 --> 01:10:51,690 | you're interpreting price. And you're seeing objectives, I'm also trying to teach as well. But when you see these PDE arrays, you're going to learn their |
| 356 | 01:10:51,690 --> 01:10:59,970 | characteristics, because you're looking at them. This is what's usually occurring when someone watches my videos. Number one, they they're not |
| 357 | 01:10:59,970 --> 01:11:10,830 | interested in listening to someone really expound on the logic that's required to know how to do this. If you are lazy, and if this offends you, unsubscribe, |
| 358 | 01:11:10,830 --> 01:11:19,050 | don't ever watch me again. Okay? Because this is for the people that really want to understand and learn. If you aren't lazy, you will not learn how to do this. |
| 359 | 01:11:19,500 --> 01:11:27,870 | There's no shortcut to it, you will go and chart you will study, you will look at old data, you will back test, you will tape read for months and throughout |
| 360 | 01:11:27,870 --> 01:11:38,040 | this year. And that's how you get good at it. Here's here's gonna fail, pushing a button getting into a trade, whether it's demo, or live, you will not be able |
| 361 | 01:11:38,040 --> 01:11:48,990 | to learn this because you're not getting the same type of feedback and insight. By looking at these things, I'm calling out on Twitter or when I referenced it |
| 362 | 01:11:48,990 --> 01:11:59,760 | like I just did it again in front of you here again today. Were you all here? I mean, did you see me not say What's this volume and balance here? Look what |
| 363 | 01:11:59,760 --> 01:12:05,850 | happens? It goes way up and it perfectly delivers to this candles? What's the what's the closing price on that candle? You're gonna look right here. Okay. |
| 364 | 01:12:08,220 --> 01:12:22,170 | This candles closing price is 41 11.75. I told you watch this volume and bounce trades up into here. What's the high of that candle here? 41 11.75. Perfect. |
| 365 | 01:12:23,460 --> 01:12:34,440 | Perfect, folks. Please don't come to me with this Mickey Mouse shit, supply and demand. It's nothing like that. It's nothing like that. When when students sit |
| 366 | 01:12:34,440 --> 01:12:44,610 | down with me, and when I was doing one on ones in the late 90s When I sat down with them, and I was doing this with the bond chart, and I would do it with the |
| 367 | 01:12:44,610 --> 01:12:52,290 | s&p, you should see their face. I mean, it's probably what your face looks like to when you're seeing it live. And you watch it happen. You're looking around |
| 368 | 01:12:52,290 --> 01:13:03,330 | the room like am I supposed to notice? Like you're waiting for the knock on the door like men in black are showing up? Because it shouldn't be this perfect. |
| 369 | 01:13:03,330 --> 01:13:15,120 | Right? Forget it should if the markets were really designed for your and betterment, it should be something like that. It's an investment. But they treat |
| 370 | 01:13:15,120 --> 01:13:24,720 | it like let's turn it into Casino. Let's turn it into a casino experience where they blind you by never having Windows never o'clock because they don't want you |
| 371 | 01:13:24,720 --> 01:13:35,160 | to know how much time you've wasted losing money. So how the hell did he hide this stuff in plain sight? Indicators, baby indicators. And in case you don't |
| 372 | 01:13:35,160 --> 01:13:44,040 | like the indicators, they've already pushed on the masses, they're always bringing what a new round of indicators. They're already starting to do it with |
| 373 | 01:13:44,040 --> 01:13:52,680 | my stuff. Here's a fair value gap indicator. It's bullshit. It's bullshit. You're not even bringing in the most important criteria to that. You can have a |
| 374 | 01:13:52,680 --> 01:14:00,150 | fair value gap indicator. It's going to get you every single one of them. And you're going to look at that and think what it's overbought, oversold, it's |
| 375 | 01:14:00,150 --> 01:14:10,650 | overbought, oversold and you're gonna lose money. And you're gonna say, Oh, this ICT he's a scammer. He can't ever do this live. You'll never live streaming call |
| 376 | 01:14:10,650 --> 01:14:20,520 | these moves. Doing it. And you're still plugging your ears and closing your eyes. The people that are learning they're excited right now, because they're |
| 377 | 01:14:20,520 --> 01:14:32,040 | seeing evidence. They're seeing a testimony every single day that the author is talking to you baby. There's no denying it. So when you see these things repeat |
| 378 | 01:14:32,040 --> 01:14:40,740 | like I mentioned here the volume amounts Watson who knows? I haven't facetiously said oh, you're gonna tell me that that small little ranch. Yes. And what does |
| 379 | 01:14:40,740 --> 01:14:50,910 | it do? it overshoots it so why there's no Mohawks in the lawn over suits and limit so it's seamless. Then it does work comes right back up. What's the what's |
| 380 | 01:14:50,910 --> 01:14:57,570 | the close? I'm sorry, what's the low this candle here? That frames the higher the volume imbalance. I know I love you too. You're sitting here thinking I love |
| 381 | 01:14:57,570 --> 01:15:04,770 | this guy. Man. I love this guy. Yes. I love you. too, this is going to be an amazing year, you should be thankful that you sat down and listen, because |
| 382 | 01:15:04,770 --> 01:15:15,450 | there's going to be a whole lot more dysfunction at the low of this candle. 41 Zero 9.25 GUYS THINK himself how he this year that I was thinking I didn't say |
| 383 | 01:15:15,450 --> 01:15:35,250 | that well what's the highlight candle? Gotta be on the candle just right one mil 41 Zero 9.25. Exactly the low of that candle. What do you want zero 9.25. Folks, |
| 384 | 01:15:35,310 --> 01:15:48,900 | listen, listen, I took your attention on this live stream. It wasn't a tweet that got deleted that was incorrectly called. It wasn't something else. It was |
| 385 | 01:15:48,900 --> 01:16:02,130 | exactly that. And what do we have? We had unrealized objectives. 41 Zero 1.25, which is this level here. And then 40 98.50 level, which I mentioned on Twitter. |
| 386 | 01:16:03,120 --> 01:16:17,370 | But it went further ICT? Yeah, that's fine. I don't care. I have no do you hear any regret? Folks, if if you know what I'm teaching you, and I know it, I don't |
| 387 | 01:16:17,370 --> 01:16:26,880 | worry about missing a move. The sun might not come up tomorrow. That's always a probability. It's not likely to be high probability. But you know, the world |
| 388 | 01:16:26,880 --> 01:16:36,990 | could end anything had happened. I'm like, you go to meet my maker. Before I'm ready. Well, I'm always ready. But before I would expect to do it. Barring those |
| 389 | 01:16:37,140 --> 01:16:45,960 | extremes, if the market is going to open up tomorrow, I'm going to see these things occurring in price action. You're going to see them occurring, they |
| 390 | 01:16:45,960 --> 01:17:00,900 | cannot hide it from you. They can't, you should not worry about my algorithm being changed. It's not going to be changed, folks. If I honestly believed by |
| 391 | 01:17:00,900 --> 01:17:13,470 | sharing it openly like this, if it would somehow be changed or augmented. I honestly, my flesh, the center in me would keep it to myself. And that's the |
| 392 | 01:17:13,470 --> 01:17:22,380 | honesty. That's truth. If you can't respect that, then you hit the road. But there's no reason for you to worry. You're wasting time worrying about stuff |
| 393 | 01:17:22,380 --> 01:17:30,510 | that has no bearing on your development you're doing here you're providing perfect excuses for you not to even start. Which gets back to one of the |
| 394 | 01:17:31,470 --> 01:17:32,550 | SoundCloud's I did. |
| 395 | 01:17:33,810 --> 01:17:49,140 | Are you deserving because some of you probably don't believe that you are. And that's going to be a amazing barrier to you ever getting good at this. No matter |
| 396 | 01:17:49,140 --> 01:17:58,530 | who you learn from whatever style or approach to trading. You don't want to fail deep rooted fear of failing. So you'll make perfect excuses to justify why |
| 397 | 01:17:58,530 --> 01:18:07,290 | you're not going to try hard. I'm just never going to be able to do it. I won't be able to follow the rules. So why bother? I just muscle call it a scam. He's a |
| 398 | 01:18:07,290 --> 01:18:20,760 | scammer. He's never gonna livestream I'm doing it now. I'm calling it I'm telling you on Twitter, and I'm telling you here Come on, wake up, man. You're |
| 399 | 01:18:20,760 --> 01:18:33,090 | gonna burn through this whole entire year and waste this opportunity. So anyway, so now let's look at through the lens of your your trading model is say it's the |
| 400 | 01:18:33,090 --> 01:18:44,100 | last hour of the day. Okay, so it's like three o'clock to four o'clock, New York local time. If that's what you're trying to do, you have to understand where the |
| 401 | 01:18:44,100 --> 01:18:53,310 | markets likely to go? Where is it trying to reach? what's the, what's the draw on liquidity. That's the number one thing as a trader, I force on my students to |
| 402 | 01:18:53,310 --> 01:19:06,510 | learn. You may not be good at it quickly. And that's the reason why I teach that premise first. Because if you start working on that as your first hurdle, that's |
| 403 | 01:19:06,510 --> 01:19:16,470 | the first thing you're trying to learn. And you're doing it correctly. By time devotion, doing it over and over again. The other skill sets are which are very |
| 404 | 01:19:16,470 --> 01:19:27,540 | easy, which are entering which sounds crazy because you heard me say multiple times now. My my hard part about trading was what? Conquering the fear of |
| 405 | 01:19:27,540 --> 01:19:39,120 | getting in. Now my strength is getting in like I just I could have said all this stuff and been wrong. I'm on live stream. I'm not here without a safety net. And |
| 406 | 01:19:39,120 --> 01:19:52,380 | the market makers can hear and see me and they know me. Do you see them crashing the market because I said it. No. manual intervention is always a risk. That |
| 407 | 01:19:52,380 --> 01:20:01,410 | means something's going to happen that you didn't expect some black swan event and boom. Marcus is gonna go crazy. I expect that in forex saying, that's why |
| 408 | 01:20:01,410 --> 01:20:08,910 | I'm not trading Forex. I'm trying to be a good steward with this information and also be a good human being, because I feel that that's exactly what's about to |
| 409 | 01:20:08,910 --> 01:20:22,320 | happen. You are going to trade whatever you're going to trade, I understand that. But it would be unethical for me to know what I know, and not warn you. |
| 410 | 01:20:23,760 --> 01:20:31,110 | And that's all I've done. So I have a clear conscience, if you choose to do those markets, and the and you get burned, I don't want to hear or read an email |
| 411 | 01:20:31,110 --> 01:20:39,840 | from you, you should have told me because I've said it multiple times, I think that we're going to see something similar to when the euro and the Swissy was |
| 412 | 01:20:39,870 --> 01:20:52,140 | the pegged, which is unbelievably damaging. I don't know when it's going to happen. I don't have a timeline for it. But I know it's soon. And I don't want |
| 413 | 01:20:52,140 --> 01:21:01,770 | to be in those markets where I could get hurt, I could very easily get hurt. And you could potentially get hurt too. That's not to say you can't lose money in |
| 414 | 01:21:01,770 --> 01:21:15,570 | this market too, because obviously you can. But the type of move that I think is going to happen in forex, is not going to be the same type of move that we would |
| 415 | 01:21:15,570 --> 01:21:29,100 | see in this. It might move in similar fashion week, big drop down, but not to the magnitude and speed and velocity of which like ad pegging was when euro and |
| 416 | 01:21:29,100 --> 01:21:39,300 | Swiss he was the peg, if you don't know what I'm talking about Google it. And look at that chart. Nobody survived brokerage brokerages were shut down over |
| 417 | 01:21:39,300 --> 01:21:52,350 | that move. They were insolvent instantly, just like that. And you can't survive those kinds of moves, folks. You just can't. So I tell you that so that we can |
| 418 | 01:21:52,350 --> 01:22:04,770 | prepare yourself or not get yourself hurt. I think 4088 was the next level ahead in my notes. I don't have them right here with me. But 4088 was the very, very |
| 419 | 01:22:04,770 --> 01:22:16,890 | last thing. And I didn't expect that really to be honest with you. Today, I was wanting to see it straight into what's tomorrow. So we'll see 40 Ada. Tom, who |
| 420 | 01:22:16,890 --> 01:22:27,900 | goes probably thinking, dammit, I should have held it. Maybe he had me rolling today. I've been listening to him for a week and a half. Not every day as a |
| 421 | 01:22:27,900 --> 01:22:35,430 | couple days where I wasn't able to listen to those doing other things. But he sounds like Arnold Schwarzenegger, to me. Sounds like Arnold Schwarzenegger. And |
| 422 | 01:22:35,940 --> 01:22:46,620 | usually it's very, sounds very sophisticated, very articulate, gentlemanly. Once in a while, he gets a little animated. And today he really got enemy and I |
| 423 | 01:22:46,620 --> 01:22:56,190 | literally was pissing myself. I'm like laughing my ass off. So much. I was tearing. I like, man, it was so funny. It was funny. And I'm not laughing at |
| 424 | 01:22:56,190 --> 01:23:03,570 | him. I was laughing with him. And if you listen to his his presentation, he was actually referring to me because I mentioned how in the morning session the |
| 425 | 01:23:03,570 --> 01:23:12,150 | market was really shitty it was it was crummy. It was hard to get dial on what it was doing. And then he saw that, I don't know if he saw it, or someone |
| 426 | 01:23:12,150 --> 01:23:23,040 | mentioned to him and he's like, oh, yeah, you'd have to hear it to know it. But it was funny. It was really, really funny. Hang on here, what the hell was I |
| 427 | 01:23:23,040 --> 01:23:24,540 | doing? 48. |
| 428 | 01:23:31,260 --> 01:23:40,230 | So that was the level I'll leave it to you to take a look at your charts and find that for your homework. What is 40 at a higher timeframe chart that'll help |
| 429 | 01:23:40,230 --> 01:23:49,290 | you. But if you're the last hour type trader, okay, you're not trying to be in there in the beginning of the day at 930. You're not trying to guess what the |
| 430 | 01:23:49,830 --> 01:23:57,000 | what the range is going to do. And where's the Judas swing? How much is it going to move this far, it's outside your paygrade you're not worrying about it, you |
| 431 | 01:23:57,000 --> 01:24:06,630 | have no concern about you're not going to panic about what you missed. You don't have any fear over. You're going to wait into the afternoon. Okay, if you're |
| 432 | 01:24:06,630 --> 01:24:16,950 | gonna be an afternoon session trader, okay, if that's the case, you're focusing on the market. It's beginning at 130. Throughout this time window here, we're |
| 433 | 01:24:16,950 --> 01:24:27,390 | going into the last hour for 30 I'm sorry for the for 15. And then the closing bell takes off like ding ding ding. But it trades again, still further till five |
| 434 | 01:24:27,390 --> 01:24:38,130 | o'clock, and then we close for an hour until six o'clock. There's a 40 Ada level. Now, to me, I would be done. If it was a rip through this then, you know, |
| 435 | 01:24:38,700 --> 01:24:47,340 | good gracious, that's that's a huge move. But this would be it. This would or I would say this is the week I'm sorry, this is the day range for me and I'd be |
| 436 | 01:24:47,340 --> 01:24:58,320 | content. If I held anything over. I've had nothing taken off. Every bit of my position would absolutely be off right here. And I'd be content with it. And |
| 437 | 01:24:58,320 --> 01:25:06,120 | then who wouldn't be right But if you're looking at trading the afternoon, and you want to have a really small window to focus, and you just know there's going |
| 438 | 01:25:06,120 --> 01:25:19,500 | to be setups forming, it's during the three o'clock to four o'clock hour. And a lot of my students very much like this framework for trading. Because you're no |
| 439 | 01:25:19,500 --> 01:25:27,840 | more when you're looking at a very small sample set of data. It's concise, it's encapsulated inside of 60 minutes. And it allows you to go in and have the |
| 440 | 01:25:27,840 --> 01:25:35,790 | benefit of what has already happened in the day. Kind of like when I'm teaching Forex. I teach folks to focus on the New York session because they have the |
| 441 | 01:25:35,790 --> 01:25:44,940 | added benefit of having London behind them. And if they know where the markets likely to go on a higher timeframe chart, they have all that guesswork of |
| 442 | 01:25:44,970 --> 01:25:53,760 | where's the higher the low of the day, because most of the time it's formed in London. And then you can just trade in concert with that unfolding bias, leading |
| 443 | 01:25:53,760 --> 01:26:02,160 | to a higher timeframe drawl and liquidity, and not have to worry about getting whipsawed with getting in too soon. And guessing where the high and low forms in |
| 444 | 01:26:02,160 --> 01:26:12,420 | London, well, you have that similar advantage. If you can, if I can be permitted to use that term here, you have that advantage with the last hour of trading |
| 445 | 01:26:12,420 --> 01:26:23,010 | because it allows you to have all of the hindsight, perfect 2020 behind you in the morning session in the lunch. And after the lunch that first 30 minutes to |
| 446 | 01:26:23,010 --> 01:26:32,010 | 45 minutes where there's manipulation that goes against that the stops of the morning session. If they don't run them in the lunch hour, you anticipate that |
| 447 | 01:26:32,010 --> 01:26:42,210 | occurring at noon to 130 to 145. And that's why you want to be watching and studying price around 130. In afternoon you're gonna be afternoon trader. But if |
| 448 | 01:26:42,210 --> 01:26:50,070 | you don't want to be spending a whole lot of time you can start your session at like 245 Come in front of your charts. Take those 15 minutes to go through see |
| 449 | 01:26:50,070 --> 01:26:59,280 | what we've done. What is it reaching for, you have to know what a draw on liquidity is? Where is it drawing to what's the, where's that overwhelming |
| 450 | 01:26:59,850 --> 01:27:08,310 | magnet that's being used the target price it's going to gravitate towards, you're going to find that on your daily chart, your four hour and your one hour |
| 451 | 01:27:08,310 --> 01:27:21,810 | chart. That's where you're going to be finding the highest probability draws on liquidity. The direction of movement that you're trying to trade within is using |
| 452 | 01:27:21,810 --> 01:27:29,370 | a weekly chart is it more likely to expand higher or expand lower, you're not trying to predict that closing price on the weekly chart by having all those |
| 453 | 01:27:29,370 --> 01:27:41,610 | things compressed into the small little one hour timeframe. If you know where it's likely to draw to, you're going to focus on only looking for PV arrays, |
| 454 | 01:27:42,120 --> 01:27:53,970 | fair pay gaps, institutional order flow entry drills, breakers, order blocks, fair value gaps, bounce price ranges, mitigation blocks, everything that I teach |
| 455 | 01:27:54,000 --> 01:28:05,400 | on my YouTube channel, whatever one of those PDAs that you find, easiest to use, it makes the most sense that resonates with you. But what happens if that PDA |
| 456 | 01:28:05,400 --> 01:28:15,780 | doesn't form? Well, here's a newsflash for you, you're gonna miss the trait. Get ready for it, I miss trades. I've talked this entire thing right here, and I |
| 457 | 01:28:15,780 --> 01:28:25,590 | push the button in front of you. I knew it was likely to deliver. But I want you to do what I want you to see it, let me be able to communicate over top of lab |
| 458 | 01:28:25,650 --> 01:28:35,700 | while it's doing it. I gave you two reference points for where potential turns would occur if this market was in fact going to keep going lower. So as your |
| 459 | 01:28:35,700 --> 01:28:43,890 | boss the volume and balance here, perfect delivery. What does that mean? Delivery, it delivered perfectly to a level where it should stop, which is this |
| 460 | 01:28:43,890 --> 01:28:54,150 | closing price. And it does so here on that candle perfectly. Not one tick short, not one tick over. And I said watch this little small range in here. And I |
| 461 | 01:28:54,150 --> 01:29:02,400 | facetiously said there's no way the markets gonna care about the little tiny range. No, the market doesn't care about that. But the algorithm does. Because |
| 462 | 01:29:02,400 --> 01:29:12,390 | there is an algorithm whether you choose to believe me or not, I could sit in front of a courtroom, Judge Jury, people can sit in front of me and watch me do |
| 463 | 01:29:12,390 --> 01:29:20,010 | this every single day. And I'm going to show you every single day that this is what it's doing. But you're looking at your RSI, you're looking at your |
| 464 | 01:29:20,010 --> 01:29:29,190 | indicators. And that's the distraction. That's why you don't see it. It's literally that's the misdirection that's the you can't see the magic, because |
| 465 | 01:29:29,190 --> 01:29:43,170 | you're watching the misdirection in the hand and never seen the real, real work. You're looking over here this hand when the match is done over here. Just like a |
| 466 | 01:29:43,170 --> 01:29:54,930 | magician. That's what they've done. And they keep everybody engaged in that type of approach. And it's right under your nose. It's been here all this time. It's |
| 467 | 01:29:54,930 --> 01:30:06,270 | been here. It can't You can't hide. You can't hide it. It's right there. Go back and look at charts from the 1930s. It's there. But wait a minute, there wasn't |
| 468 | 01:30:06,270 --> 01:30:14,370 | an algorithm, right? There were people that were sitting around literally working together to make sure these markets booked this way. How's that |
| 469 | 01:30:14,370 --> 01:30:28,530 | happening? That's another discussion. But I promise I'll give it to you before we close this year out. Mr. Smith, you're gonna know him. So the last hour |
| 470 | 01:30:28,530 --> 01:30:40,020 | trading three o'clock, we have the run up into what? The volume imbalance. So that starts the show? Do we get respect of that level? And does it hold back |
| 471 | 01:30:40,020 --> 01:30:50,910 | price? Yes, it does. It starts to go lower. What are we looking for next? What's the next clue? I'm going to have to an unforeseen. Take this out of the |
| 472 | 01:30:52,140 --> 01:31:02,070 | presentation because I want to be able to zoom in here and talk about this. I think I've already proven enough here today. And again. If not, then go watch. |
| 473 | 01:31:03,420 --> 01:31:16,560 | Carl's futures introductory course on YouTube. The swing low here. We do what we trade through it. And come back up into what fair Vega? Well, there's one here. |
| 474 | 01:31:17,070 --> 01:31:25,290 | But what's below that before we get to this fair, Vega atheris. Swing Low was taken right there. But it didn't close below it. I never said it had to go back |
| 475 | 01:31:25,290 --> 01:31:37,320 | and watch what I teach as a market structure shift. All it needs to do is Pierce. But what if it's only by one tick, it pierced it. That's all it is. It's |
| 476 | 01:31:37,410 --> 01:31:43,860 | you're letting you're literally going in and you're waiting for this swing, let why this swing low? Because we've already went into what that volume imbalance |
| 477 | 01:31:44,190 --> 01:31:56,520 | with the expectation that we're going to treat trade to 40 98.50, which is the last public reference that I gave on Twitter. I think it's 98.50. If it ain't |
| 478 | 01:31:56,520 --> 01:32:10,650 | 98.50, it's 98.25. So you have to check me on that one. But I know I tweeted it. So we're looking for democracy gravitate lower. We were expecting the large |
| 479 | 01:32:10,650 --> 01:32:20,880 | range day I told you, we would get a big large range day if we got through what the new week opening gap? Did it deliver? Sure it did. That I have majority of |
| 480 | 01:32:20,880 --> 01:32:30,000 | the position open the entire day. Yes, but I missed this big run off. That's okay. I've outlined where those signals were here in front of you. Volume and |
| 481 | 01:32:30,000 --> 01:32:43,680 | balance. The trade up until it we create a swing low here. We rally up hit one more time. What's the hitting? What's this candle is hot here. 41. Zero trades |
| 482 | 01:32:43,680 --> 01:33:03,450 | back up to this level here on this candles high? What is the high near 41? Zero? Oops, perfect. Perfect. That let that sink in for a second, folks. Do you really |
| 483 | 01:33:03,450 --> 01:33:13,260 | believe that there's other books, other educators and teachers that was teaching this anywhere? Before I mentioned that, because I'm gonna tell you something did |
| 484 | 01:33:13,260 --> 01:33:26,490 | not ever happen. Ever. And you'd be surprised at some of these big name authors. They have been talking to me in private for three and a half years, four years |
| 485 | 01:33:26,490 --> 01:33:26,700 | now. |
| 486 | 01:33:28,109 --> 01:33:38,189 | Yep, you're gonna see all kinds of future books from other people. But it was never before this. And it's important to me. Why does it matter? Who cares? It |
| 487 | 01:33:38,189 --> 01:33:54,239 | matters to me. It matters to me. And if it is a source of contention with us, me being a mentor me constantly repeating it. It's because I have to. I have to do |
| 488 | 01:33:54,239 --> 01:34:02,129 | it. It's like a nervous tic in me I got it, I got to do it. It's that mosquito bite, I gotta keep scratching it. And you have to get over it. Because I'm not |
| 489 | 01:34:02,129 --> 01:34:12,839 | gonna stop. So when we trade up into that volume imbalance, we want to see it do what respect it and repel price away. So when that candle closes, and the next |
| 490 | 01:34:12,839 --> 01:34:26,039 | one opens, we're looking for no return back to what where they removed any Mohawk in the lawn. No little seam. So it can go back up and bump that volume |
| 491 | 01:34:26,039 --> 01:34:36,749 | unbalanced once more, it could easily go up in and trade consequent curtailment to that's absolutely permissible, but going above this high not permissible. So |
| 492 | 01:34:36,749 --> 01:34:47,069 | it's building barriers. How do you trust the ICT to to lead the stock where you put it and how do you know the markets not going to go pay us? I'm teaching that |
| 493 | 01:34:47,099 --> 01:34:58,739 | right now. But you're sitting here worrying about other things. You're not taking notes, you're not listening. You have to write this stuff down. Who knows |
| 494 | 01:34:58,739 --> 01:35:07,259 | I'm going to talk about it again. I have So many other things I've talked about this year. And frankly, you know, I'm like a firehose, I don't know what I've |
| 495 | 01:35:07,259 --> 01:35:16,499 | said, after I've said it, is there's so many things coming out. And because I'm talking about something that's live in real time, who knows what, what memories |
| 496 | 01:35:16,499 --> 01:35:23,849 | is going to be brought up? And what I'm going to use as a framework to say, Okay, this is what you ought to be focusing on. Not because the logic is going |
| 497 | 01:35:23,849 --> 01:35:38,009 | to be different, but because it's in my nature to be a Rambler, and I ramble. So let's get rambling. This turning point here is confirm when this candle fails to |
| 498 | 01:35:38,009 --> 01:35:46,619 | make a higher high to that one, or even touch back in the volume imbalance. And then this candle is low is taken out on that one, when we see that I'm |
| 499 | 01:35:46,619 --> 01:35:57,089 | expecting, and when I'm watching things like this and price action, when you watch my recordings also, okay, I expect speed and distance right now. Or I'll |
| 500 | 01:35:57,089 --> 01:36:06,149 | type in, it's going to drop heart or a sharp drop. Now, as I'm looking for, we would be getting that here. So we now have this low taking up, this is going to |
| 501 | 01:36:06,149 --> 01:36:16,619 | act much in the same way that this candle here being pierced here. It's like a small little shift in market structure, it's an early confirmation that this is |
| 502 | 01:36:16,619 --> 01:36:25,799 | most likely going to get tripped. So it prepares you to get ready. So this candle drops below this low, we're looking for this low to be pierced. It does. |
| 503 | 01:36:25,829 --> 01:36:35,279 | So now we have a valid shift in market structure with this low being taken there. Yes, you would frame this as a fair value gap. But you don't know when |
| 504 | 01:36:35,279 --> 01:36:46,109 | this candle opens. And how it closes that creates this what? Volume imbalance. So in my mind, I'm going to use this volume imbalance on this candle here. If it |
| 505 | 01:36:46,109 --> 01:36:55,559 | opens here, as soon as it rallies up into that between this candles open and this candle is closed as soon as it trades there. Right then in there, while |
| 506 | 01:36:55,559 --> 01:37:03,809 | that candle is bullish, it's green. It's a bullish candle. I'm going right in there. selling short. That's how I would use that entry technique. Oh, but you |
| 507 | 01:37:03,809 --> 01:37:11,609 | didn't do it ICT, you're cherry picking? Look at all the examples. I'm selling short and up candles. I'm pyramiding entries when I'm bearish in up close |
| 508 | 01:37:11,609 --> 01:37:22,409 | candles when the candle is forming, going up. I'm selling into that. How do you know to trust it on explaining it here? You have to know those PD arrays I'm |
| 509 | 01:37:22,409 --> 01:37:36,479 | teaching you to look at and observe and study. You don't know which one you're going to trust. I trust all of them. They're mine. You don't trust them yet? So |
| 510 | 01:37:36,479 --> 01:37:44,399 | my question I usually retort when I do take the time and it's very rare. Somebody will send me a message, send me an email, send me a message through |
| 511 | 01:37:44,399 --> 01:37:58,259 | trading view or say something to me on on Twitter. You know, how do you trust this? What do you look for in my PDA arrays? Which one are you using? And it's |
| 512 | 01:37:58,259 --> 01:38:08,129 | crickets they won't answer. Because they haven't done the work, you have to sit down and look at real time data and figure out which one you like. And be |
| 513 | 01:38:08,129 --> 01:38:18,299 | content with the idea that okay, every price run isn't going to have your specific pdra. In the beginning, that's actually a good thing. Because it |
| 514 | 01:38:18,299 --> 01:38:28,469 | teaches you to be patient. And also to be highly selective about the trade setups that you're looking to participate in. It doesn't allow you to over |
| 515 | 01:38:28,469 --> 01:38:42,029 | indulge, which is very, very problematic in this industry because you can over indulge and blow your account. You can have a high success and strike rate and |
| 516 | 01:38:42,029 --> 01:38:54,659 | overindulge with leverage and be done in one trade and be blown out. But your strike rates 90% And you can blow your account on one trade. Being overzealous |
| 517 | 01:38:54,659 --> 01:39:03,989 | about building up a large position pyramid pyramid pyramid pyramid happens on YouTube is a talker after doing it just about every other time he gets on |
| 518 | 01:39:03,989 --> 01:39:13,859 | Livestream. Next last day, boom 15 16,000 hours if it's even real. You can't control yourself peer meeting and build big positions. That's not the answer. |
| 519 | 01:39:16,739 --> 01:39:27,239 | You have to know what you're looking for what pdra You're going to dial in on and make that your model. Learn that one well, and then when you're comfortable |
| 520 | 01:39:27,269 --> 01:39:36,629 | seeing always forming in the setups that you're looking for being content with them not always being in every price run. Meaning that when there's a mood that, |
| 521 | 01:39:36,959 --> 01:39:49,739 | well something like this to hear to hear. There isn't any necessity for every one of my PD arrays are the things I used to get into trades with and also |
| 522 | 01:39:49,739 --> 01:39:59,849 | measure institutional order flow, keeping the idea that we're moving in the right direction. Not all of them are going to form in that price run. And it's |
| 523 | 01:39:59,849 --> 01:40:11,519 | okay Okay, I'm not limited, like a new student or a new trader learning this is, but don't look at that as a limitation that is always going to be there, you |
| 524 | 01:40:11,519 --> 01:40:23,039 | have to grow. And you only do this correctly by watching price action without pushing a button observing, saying, Oh, this makes a lot of sense to me, some of |
| 525 | 01:40:23,039 --> 01:40:30,839 | you might be looking at this same thing, here is no way on God's green earth, I would ever look at that as a cell. Okay, it doesn't mean that it doesn't work, |
| 526 | 01:40:31,589 --> 01:40:39,929 | does it mean that other students aren't going to be profitable doing it, this means that you haven't warmed up to that specific PDE array, yours would be the |
| 527 | 01:40:39,929 --> 01:40:50,759 | fair Vega, and you would not have been filled there. And there's going to be many times because I see it all the time. There's moves that I miss, I would |
| 528 | 01:40:50,759 --> 01:40:58,349 | like to get a part of it. But I don't, because I'm looking for a very specific level, and I want the market to come to me. If there's a very specific level I'm |
| 529 | 01:40:58,349 --> 01:41:09,809 | looking for, and it doesn't trade there, I miss it, then I have to go into the move that's already on its way. And as long as I'm not trading outside of that |
| 530 | 01:41:09,839 --> 01:41:22,799 | pdra matrix where I've defined last night where you don't want to trade beyond a certain measure. You have to do all your core entry at that point or above if |
| 531 | 01:41:22,799 --> 01:41:29,939 | you're short, and in deference to being long. And you're probably if you're since the first of the year, listen to what I'm saying here has no understanding |
| 532 | 01:41:29,969 --> 01:41:39,149 | it has no basis to frame what I'm saying. And it sounds like mumbo jumbo. But it's exactly what I taught last night, you have to have limitation on when are |
| 533 | 01:41:39,149 --> 01:41:48,629 | you going to stop taking entries? When does it become less probable? When are you going to stop adding in your pyramid position, you have to have that |
| 534 | 01:41:48,629 --> 01:41:55,949 | criteria in your trading. Otherwise, you'll just treat everything as a reason to get in there because it hasn't gotten to your target yet. And I learned that |
| 535 | 01:41:55,949 --> 01:42:02,789 | lesson the hard way it turned against me even when I had a really nice winning trade. And I was doing inverted pyramids where I would start with one contract |
| 536 | 01:42:02,789 --> 01:42:15,299 | and two, then four then eight Then 16 Then 3264. Well, that means every time I added new entries, the position size was exponentially larger than the previous |
| 537 | 01:42:15,299 --> 01:42:28,349 | one. So it would only take a small little retracement to have my open profits be evaporated and more or less Visser ated. And I'd still wouldn't have much of a |
| 538 | 01:42:28,349 --> 01:42:40,169 | retracement in terms of price. But the price movement with a large position most recently built in small little retracement back on me wiped out the entire run |
| 539 | 01:42:40,169 --> 01:42:51,329 | of previous open profits on my earlier positions on that one single Sunday by trade. So there's a lot of things that you have to weigh out. And you want to |
| 540 | 01:42:51,329 --> 01:42:58,229 | know how to pyramid you want to learn how to run these accounts up, you want to be able to see big massive equity increases and all that stuff. Okay, I can |
| 541 | 01:42:58,229 --> 01:43:05,189 | appreciate your interest and enthusiasm in that. But you had to start at square one. Let's go down and see how far it went down before it turned around like |
| 542 | 01:43:09,929 --> 01:43:26,939 | 7875 70.25 below. So there you go. That's a nice run the day Good grief. One second. Alright, so |
| 543 | 01:43:28,319 --> 01:43:36,179 | when the market pierces this low here, this would be my original entry. What happens if it would have traded up in that fair value? I would have added more. |
| 544 | 01:43:36,839 --> 01:43:45,449 | But you're adding to a losing position? No, not I'm building a position within a small little segment of price action below an area where I don't think it's |
| 545 | 01:43:45,449 --> 01:43:58,949 | going to go back to which is what the volume imbalance. So I'm framing the logic of yes, I would enter on this volume of balance as soon as it went into it. But |
| 546 | 01:43:58,949 --> 01:44:08,909 | what happens if I didn't have that volume imbalance I'd be trading into this area here. So I'm putting in my largest position initially here. So if I go in |
| 547 | 01:44:08,909 --> 01:44:20,429 | with say, six contracts here, then I'm going to add what in this area, I would add three, I'm cutting the original position, size and leverage in half. And |
| 548 | 01:44:20,429 --> 01:44:29,009 | then as the market breaks down, we see it trade below these lows. We have a lot of energy here and it comes back up closes here. I want to see this immediately |
| 549 | 01:44:29,009 --> 01:44:36,899 | overlap that wick why why would I want to see that? Whatever I've been teaching you about consequent encroachment and wicks midpoint in that gap can act as what |
| 550 | 01:44:36,899 --> 01:44:46,709 | support and resistance. So we do not want to see this candle open, come back down, flirt with this midpoint here and then start to rally back up. That's not |
| 551 | 01:44:46,709 --> 01:44:55,439 | what you want. Because what that's occurring, where it's occurring doing it is below old lows. And what that means is it could very well retrace back up in the |
| 552 | 01:44:55,439 --> 01:45:05,969 | human error of not thinking that you're going to have that fear back yet. Ready to it could do there could do it right there. Then had it done that then I would |
| 553 | 01:45:05,999 --> 01:45:18,899 | consider Well, I can put on one contract. And then hopefully not see this. Let me bounce retreated to and get stomped out. But that's the wrist that you open |
| 554 | 01:45:18,899 --> 01:45:26,639 | yourself up to. How do you know you don't really know, it's just you've been doing it for so long. You use the logic that repeats over and over again, most |
| 555 | 01:45:26,639 --> 01:45:36,959 | times, not all the time most times. And you trust that experience. So in this case, here, this candle opens, delivers and re delivers this entire range of |
| 556 | 01:45:36,959 --> 01:45:45,329 | that wick. And we close lower and have a lower low than that one. So everything's good. Then we opened down here we have a volume imbalance. We trade |
| 557 | 01:45:45,329 --> 01:45:58,049 | lower, then we retrace back up. midpoint of that gap consequent encouragement. Now think, what do you see here? I swear I wish I had this. When I was coming |
| 558 | 01:45:58,049 --> 01:46:09,059 | up. I could literally sit here and watch this. Like, if someone was talking like this. I could watch them all day long. I love this. Like I love price action. I |
| 559 | 01:46:09,059 --> 01:46:28,439 | love analysis. I love being in it this wick here, we measure that. Here. So that's consequat encroachment at 40 100.75. What's the open on this candle here? |
| 560 | 01:46:33,450 --> 01:46:44,040 | I'm sorry, I said open. What's the close on that candle? 41 Zero 0.75. That's that's consequent encroachment of the open on this candle is the same thing. 41 |
| 561 | 01:46:44,040 --> 01:46:57,330 | Zero 0.75. Okay, big deal, right? But it goes up a little bit. Why is it doing that? Remember, it's to make it seamless. It's not going to go and bump up right |
| 562 | 01:46:57,330 --> 01:47:10,890 | to the old lows exactly all the time. Because if it was like that, number one, I believe it would have been more easily observed by other people. They hide it by |
| 563 | 01:47:10,890 --> 01:47:18,600 | having this little bit of an overlap. Because if it always stopped in the middle of the wicks like this, people would have it in books years ago would have been |
| 564 | 01:47:18,600 --> 01:47:25,230 | books. It's not. It's not in books. Here's your algorithm kicking in 10 minutes before. |
| 565 | 01:47:30,779 --> 01:47:44,939 | There's by side right here, the CME volume imbalance here, I would use that here and allow for price to trade up into consequent encroachment of this wick. So |
| 566 | 01:47:44,969 --> 01:47:52,739 | this would be a point of adding more. And then if it gets to consequent encroachment, I would add more there too. But you're adding to a losing |
| 567 | 01:47:52,739 --> 01:48:00,809 | position. No, I'm not because I will be net short from up here in this volume and balance. And I have all this position here with the largest portion on |
| 568 | 01:48:00,929 --> 01:48:11,459 | initially in that volume and bounce there. So six contracts short here. It trades down, comes back up volume of bounce three contracts, one contract, |
| 569 | 01:48:11,729 --> 01:48:20,339 | consequent encroachment, where would I not want to see price trade to now the middle of this up close candle because that's your bearish, order block up close |
| 570 | 01:48:20,339 --> 01:48:29,369 | candle prior to this move lower, so there's displacement after that we've taken up that low. There's no need to come back to this level if it's going to go to |
| 571 | 01:48:29,369 --> 01:48:42,029 | those 40 98.50 level I mentioned on Twitter. So it's allowed you're allowed. You're reading the tape. You're reading order flow. You're weighing out whether |
| 572 | 01:48:42,029 --> 01:48:53,699 | or not the market continuously keeps balancing. And repricing balancing repricing so it's permissible for to trade up to this level here it does so. So |
| 573 | 01:48:53,699 --> 01:49:03,719 | now what has happened right there. From here to here, I gotta change the color of this |
| 574 | 01:49:11,310 --> 01:49:20,550 | we had this range back and forth between this candles high, this candle is low, we trade all back up to this candle high. And then we leave the range here. |
| 575 | 01:49:23,070 --> 01:49:33,930 | There's no necessity to enter back into this range. If that target 40 98.50 is in fact, here's your buy side of this Tojo is going to reach for the target of |
| 576 | 01:49:33,930 --> 01:49:45,390 | 40 98.50. So because this is a balanced price range, why doesn't it have the necessity for price to come back up into that pink area? Why shouldn't it go up |
| 577 | 01:49:45,390 --> 01:49:57,720 | there? Because price has done what it's delivered paint down, then up, then down. Buying and selling pressure had nothing to do with it not going back up |
| 578 | 01:49:57,720 --> 01:50:05,970 | into that level. It didn't even Come back to touch the bottom of the range, which is this old low here, which is what? Classic Support Resistance, right? |
| 579 | 01:50:07,200 --> 01:50:19,590 | Classic Support Resistance, support broken turns resistance, love, you missed the party sealer consequent encroachment of the wick. That's where algorithmic |
| 580 | 01:50:19,590 --> 01:50:32,460 | Smart Money, composite men engage right there. And we don't need it to come back up here, because this candle went down to this low in the next candle happens to |
| 581 | 01:50:32,460 --> 01:50:42,750 | be opening up here, and delivers once more overtop that range. So what's occurring here, this balance range, balanced price range? Yes, it's it's |
| 582 | 01:50:42,750 --> 01:50:47,280 | balanced. But now we have a smaller balanced, balanced price range here. |
| 583 | 01:50:53,069 --> 01:51:04,259 | It doesn't need to come back up into this area. It trades lower, and then trades over top of it here again, we leave that range and come back up, what can it do |
| 584 | 01:51:04,259 --> 01:51:16,019 | what's permissible, halfway, halfway, which is also consequent courage, when that wick, there's a convergence of factors coming there. When I'm looking at |
| 585 | 01:51:16,019 --> 01:51:24,929 | price, my eyes looking at all these things, and I'm reading everything from each one of these candles. Now imagine what I've already said here, how much time |
| 586 | 01:51:24,929 --> 01:51:32,129 | would it take me to annotate that into chart typing? Now I can not want a one minute chart and I'm trying to read it and in decipher all that stuff, I can't |
| 587 | 01:51:32,129 --> 01:51:43,349 | do it. So when you're watching price, you're looking at it and you're deciphering does the feedback that you're getting from price supporting the idea |
| 588 | 01:51:43,349 --> 01:51:50,909 | that when that it wants to keep going lower, the fact that we don't go back up in this area is great. The fact that the bodies are respecting the consequent |
| 589 | 01:51:50,909 --> 01:51:59,579 | encroachment of that wick and that mean threshold, because we're measuring bodies of candles here, both consequent encroachment and mean threshold converge |
| 590 | 01:51:59,579 --> 01:52:05,249 | at the same area, which is this level right there. Book |
| 591 | 01:52:10,529 --> 01:52:21,839 | 41, zero 0.75. That's the close and open on that candle. Done small little variance in price, you have to allow for that. Don't let that scare you don't |
| 592 | 01:52:21,839 --> 01:52:34,349 | let it be a source of fear or anxiety. That's normal. That's a normal thing in price delivery. This off here. So now price goes up into that area, we want to |
| 593 | 01:52:34,349 --> 01:52:44,609 | see and I would be saying if we were doing a live trade, I'd say we want to see it deliver and go lower now. It goes down. So what's it doing here? It takes out |
| 594 | 01:52:44,609 --> 01:52:58,859 | this low here. So now this low to this high here becomes what? A bounce price range because the market has delivered both directions of buy side and sell |
| 595 | 01:52:58,859 --> 01:53:09,539 | side. Between this. Here there are old range down to this low here. The market trades back up to what consequent encroachment. So consequent encroachment |
| 596 | 01:53:09,569 --> 01:53:17,639 | becomes the high end of the New Balance price range. Because we've we've traced back that far. There's no need to worry back to back to here or this old low. |
| 597 | 01:53:17,699 --> 01:53:25,199 | It's it's already done its work by going back and forth between these two candles. Think about that pain analogy. Are you going to paint the same section |
| 598 | 01:53:25,199 --> 01:53:36,509 | of the wall five times? No, you're wasting paint. Price isn't going to waste time. Time is important to it, it only has so many trading hours in the day. So |
| 599 | 01:53:36,509 --> 01:53:44,669 | you take your eye and your attention. You don't want to do this when price is trading live because you'll miss what you're supposed to be focusing on. But you |
| 600 | 01:53:44,669 --> 01:53:50,189 | want to be referring to it while watching price. So again, we're thinking |
| 601 | 01:53:58,830 --> 01:54:07,440 | I'm sorry, but my son was calling me the we're thinking that the price is going to continuously go lower. The market trades back up into this consequent |
| 602 | 01:54:07,440 --> 01:54:16,020 | correction here, which is now the new high of the bounce price range. There's no necessity for it to trade higher. Does the willingness of price reflect wanting |
| 603 | 01:54:16,020 --> 01:54:26,040 | to go lower? Yes, it does. It takes out this low here. And then we come back up? What's permissible? If this is a balanced price range, it's painted price down |
| 604 | 01:54:26,070 --> 01:54:35,310 | offered sell side than it offered by side to the area where we're expecting to see price go to anyway. Then it should go lower. It does it leaves that price |
| 605 | 01:54:35,310 --> 01:54:47,670 | range. Can it go back up into this range? Yes. How far? Halfway? Because we're measuring bodies. We're looking at it through the lens of what mean threshold |
| 606 | 01:54:50,250 --> 01:55:03,480 | and I should charge you money for this. So here is the mean threshold for 09 7.50. That's what could reasonably be traded to. And it's permissible it |
| 607 | 01:55:03,480 --> 01:55:10,890 | means it's allowed, you can expect that and it doesn't upset anything. The market fails to go there. And what does it do? It trades lower than that low |
| 608 | 01:55:10,890 --> 01:55:20,040 | now. So we're expanding our range and breaks lower. We don't even need to go back up to consequent Kirkenes aren't mean threshold, we're looking for now, any |
| 609 | 01:55:20,130 --> 01:55:29,040 | further advancement lower. What is this area here now become between mean threshold which was never hit? |
| 610 | 01:55:37,620 --> 01:55:56,370 | This this is your new bounce price range. Does market want to trade away from that? It does. But now we're late in the day, what time of day. 1524. So it's 24 |
| 611 | 01:55:56,370 --> 01:56:04,410 | minutes after three New York local time. It's going to run, it's going to aggressively reach to the liquidity it's going to aim for for the day |
| 612 | 01:56:05,670 --> 01:56:15,720 | aggressively runs. Trade. So whatever 47 eight and a quarter becomes I don't even know what that is. In my notes, I don't have anything that jogged my memory |
| 613 | 01:56:15,720 --> 01:56:30,690 | to that. It hits it At what time 1534, so 34 minutes after three, and then 20 minutes to four. You want to be sitting and waiting for price to run on |
| 614 | 01:56:30,690 --> 01:56:41,370 | liquidity because it 15 minutes of if he had already seen it by then it's going to really aggressively run on liquidity that has not seen or hasn't been tapped |
| 615 | 01:56:41,370 --> 01:56:50,520 | into. Meaning what I told you the buy side liquidity would be right here. Where's it go? Right there. And now we're at a time of day where it's just going |
| 616 | 01:56:50,520 --> 01:56:59,910 | to trade listlessly, now between this high in that low. And simply because the markets moving around fluctuating and the five o'clock yet, retail traders are |
| 617 | 01:56:59,910 --> 01:57:12,270 | going to try to trade in that and get caught up in a mess. When only thing it's done is created a low, we come off the low, and it does it simple macro. It |
| 618 | 01:57:12,270 --> 01:57:20,130 | repeats over and over and over and over again. But reading price and understanding the order flow is essentially what I'm showing you here. Every |
| 619 | 01:57:20,130 --> 01:57:29,700 | time we have an overlap of price. If cell sides offered, it means it's going down a down candle. If you're bearish, you want to see that down closed candle |
| 620 | 01:57:30,180 --> 01:57:45,750 | be redelivered with an up close price movement. And then back down, it does not need the clothes. It doesn't need the clothes with an up candle if it was a |
| 621 | 01:57:45,750 --> 01:57:57,780 | recent down close candle. So what I mean by that will be an example of that. Alright, see, see how we have this down close candle here, say the next candle |
| 622 | 01:57:57,780 --> 01:58:09,960 | opened up. And we trade it up and overlap all that and then went down and made a lower low. So have a wick there. That's the same thing is what I'm saying is it |
| 623 | 01:58:09,960 --> 01:58:21,240 | has to have both every range between one price level and another to be there to be determined and deemed efficiently delivered is between both price points |
| 624 | 01:58:21,480 --> 01:58:34,320 | between any price point range in a price run. It has to offer both directions it went down and up, down, then up. Or if it starts with up first it's up then |
| 625 | 01:58:34,320 --> 01:58:44,040 | down. And it has to overlap the entire range of whatever has been delivered. So that's what I've walked you through here. Unless someone does what I just did, |
| 626 | 01:58:44,070 --> 01:58:51,330 | you don't know what I'm talking about. And these other folks out here trying to pretend they know what I'm teaching. They have no idea what they're talking |
| 627 | 01:58:51,330 --> 01:58:59,670 | about. Because they're never doing that in their videos. They're never explaining what it is that makes the market efficient or inefficient. If the |
| 628 | 01:58:59,670 --> 01:59:09,540 | market trades back and forth between price points that are defined as I'm teaching you if they deliver both directions that's efficiently delivered price. |
| 629 | 01:59:10,710 --> 01:59:22,200 | When it doesn't do that, it creates these things like this where you have a separation from one candles low one candle down the next candle is a lower high |
| 630 | 01:59:22,230 --> 01:59:31,320 | than the previous candles low on these three candles here so a Faraday gap is three candles. The identification of the inefficiency is always the candle in |
| 631 | 01:59:31,320 --> 01:59:39,480 | the middle and you define it by the candle prior in the candle after in that segment of price action in between becomes your fair value gap |
| 632 | 01:59:44,970 --> 01:59:58,920 | Okay, so that's your fair agar. It does not mean just because we go up here like we did here. Is that a short? No. Why not ICT because it's a fair Vega you |
| 633 | 01:59:58,920 --> 02:00:07,590 | should be selling short term should be able to do a pyramid entry there? Well, well, no, you shouldn't. And why would you want to add or enter a position |
| 634 | 02:00:07,620 --> 02:00:20,520 | that's been going down all day long? At 11 minutes, the four, you don't want to do that. You never want to fade. Afternoon market reversals like this, that |
| 635 | 02:00:20,520 --> 02:00:29,820 | close to four o'clock, because many times it'll ramp up against you, because what it's going to want to induce short covering. Why? Why would they want to do |
| 636 | 02:00:29,820 --> 02:00:39,930 | that, because they want to have order flow coming in. So they can, the composite man can use that order flow, to bounce books, there's commerce coming in, it's |
| 637 | 02:00:39,930 --> 02:00:47,790 | not just all speculation. There's transactions that are coming in all the time. Well, if I'm talking about currencies here, I'm sorry. Like if you're looking at |
| 638 | 02:00:47,790 --> 02:00:56,220 | trading the currency market, that they're going to use specific times of the day, like London close, between 10 o'clock in the morning, New York, time to |
| 639 | 02:00:56,220 --> 02:01:07,920 | noon, New York local time, they'll use that little window of time to facilitate order flow coming in, in that London close condition allows all of that new |
| 640 | 02:01:08,010 --> 02:01:19,440 | volume coming into the marketplace, short covering, or selling lungs, that orderflow They use that for the commerce aspect of forex. So again, it's not all |
| 641 | 02:01:19,440 --> 02:01:29,880 | just speculation and traders like us sitting around trying to make money on different fluctuations in price. Sometimes it's just real business needs when it |
| 642 | 02:01:29,880 --> 02:01:42,000 | related to currencies. And I think that is going to be it folks. I gave you an example here live, this is my second live stream, I gave you two points of |
| 643 | 02:01:42,000 --> 02:01:56,190 | reference, the volume of balance here, and the volume of balance here. And I think that will suffice for this week. It would be an encouragement to me. If |
| 644 | 02:01:56,190 --> 02:02:06,900 | you would give me some feedback on Twitter, you're welcome to say whatever you want to say. But when you say something that's derogatory or disrespectful, I'm |
| 645 | 02:02:06,900 --> 02:02:14,790 | not going to block you. But I will mute you. So I won't ever see anything you're saying other people can see what you're saying. But I don't care to care see it. |
| 646 | 02:02:14,790 --> 02:02:26,220 | But if I was a source of education and insight and encouragement this week, I would greatly appreciate that I'll be looking through those tweets. This weekend |
| 647 | 02:02:26,640 --> 02:02:34,200 | coming up, and that signing off. Obviously, we have tomorrow's trading. And I'll probably be tickling your Twitter tomorrow. driving you nuts and your boss and |
| 648 | 02:02:34,200 --> 02:02:44,280 | let's do but I think this has been a pretty profitable week in terms of learning, teaching. I feel good about what was shared with everything I'm happy |
| 649 | 02:02:44,280 --> 02:02:55,080 | with has delivered as price. And I'm going to close this one here. And wish all of you a very pleasant evening morning wherever you're at. And until I'll talk |
| 650 | 02:02:55,080 --> 02:02:57,210 | to you next time. Be safe |