ICT YT - 2023-02-08 - Market Review - February 08 2023

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-02-09 10:05

Outline

00:26 - Daily and hourly charts -.

02:02 - Signs that you are in a consolidation.

07:40 - What would I like to see if we rally above this fair value gap?

13:17 - How do you know when you’re inside of a low resistance liquidity run signature within a market structure that’s predisposed to

15:08 - You have to be able to understand the market.

20:06 - Buy-sell liquidity pool and price action.

26:07 - How does one argue how all these things with buying and selling pressure work?

32:25 - When that stops when the ability for us to be able to see that and have that information in our hands is kept from us.

35:05 - The classic model for the New York session.

40:57 - How to use the PV array to map out a premium to discount market in a implied dealing range.

47:17 - What’s going on in the chart.

52:19 - What happens between 10am in New York and noon New York local time -.

55:04 - What’s lacking on the upside? -.

01:01:21 - Who’s making money right now?

01:08:15 - What you need to know about the current market.

Transcription

00:00:26,340 --> 00:00:38,190 ICT: Good evening, folks. Sorry, I'm a little late today I've been wrestling what feels like it's a head cold, coming on to my friends out to dinner the
00:00:38,190 --> 00:00:49,620 other day, and he had a head cold. And I think he gave it to me. Thanks, Shawn. So take a look at this as their disclaimer, it's important you understand that
00:00:49,620 --> 00:00:50,850 there are risks involved.
00:00:58,560 --> 00:01:12,600 Alright, so, dollar index. And I promise won't keep you too long tonight. Let the inside chart that is the daily chart. And we're still inside this cell
00:01:12,600 --> 00:01:25,590 Senate bounced by sending efficiency here. And I'm not certain yet I'm not convinced that we're going to go higher yet. The reason why I'm concerned about
00:01:25,590 --> 00:01:34,260 it is we have this shade, the pink area is the same thing over here on the right hand side, this is an hourly chart of the same instrument. So it's the dollar
00:01:34,260 --> 00:01:46,050 index daily on the left, hourly on the right. This shaded area here on the daily is this shaded area here on the hourly chart, we have the new week opening gap,
00:01:47,340 --> 00:01:59,730 which is the abbreviation or NW OG. That's this area here from Friday's close to Sunday's opening, we always extend that range throughout the week, because they
00:01:59,730 --> 00:02:09,930 will act as a magnet, they'll draw price back to it. Unless it's a runaway freight train where it just keeps on going in a trending environment. You want
10 00:02:09,930 --> 00:02:24,960 to be aware of where that gap is relative to last Friday's close. And Sunday's opening price. Take that range divided in half. And you'll get the consequent
11 00:02:24,960 --> 00:02:37,920 encroachment which you won't be surprised I'm sure to see that's where all these bodies are resting. Okay. So it's not just the ES futures tactic it's
12 00:02:38,130 --> 00:02:48,630 algorithmic. So it's going to refer to these price levels, very specific, not supply and demand not anything else. It's just simple understanding of what is
13 00:02:48,660 --> 00:03:00,060 coded in price delivery is predetermined whether you like it or not, it is what it is. But you have to look for the signatures that repeat when you're not in a
14 00:03:00,060 --> 00:03:10,230 training environment. When you're in a training environment, maybe one time it'll touch it, and then off to the races, it'll go, you won't return back to
15 00:03:10,230 --> 00:03:21,270 it. One of the classic telltale signs that you are in a consolidation that's most likely going to continue is if we see price come back to it multiple times
16 00:03:21,330 --> 00:03:34,950 in a week. We're probably not near a near term price run of any significance yet. So you have to be very nimble and trade intraday, and but there's no reason
17 00:03:34,950 --> 00:03:47,250 for you to be fearful. Or thinking that Well, I want to I want to get a big run and forcing a trading environment is problematic. So you have to be aware of
18 00:03:47,250 --> 00:03:57,420 where that range is. Utilize it just like support and resistance, the way the books talk about support and resistance, treat that opening gap on a new week on
19 00:03:57,420 --> 00:04:09,810 Sunday, the highest high and the lowest love which is going to be representative of whichever is higher. The Friday's close or Sunday's opening. The other price
20 00:04:09,810 --> 00:04:19,320 is going to be the opposite. So it's it's either Friday's close is higher than the opening price on Sunday, or Friday's close is lower than Sunday's opening
21 00:04:19,320 --> 00:04:26,790 price. Okay, that's the only two things that can occur, then you divide that range of that gap in half. That's consequent encouragement, those three levels
22 00:04:26,820 --> 00:04:42,330 are highly, highly sensitive price will absolutely gravitate right back to those very specific price levels. And you'll see it again tonight to the tick and I
23 00:04:42,330 --> 00:04:51,360 propose these things to us that way you can wrestle with them on your own. You don't have to subscribe to the view that I hold. And you'd never convince me
24 00:04:51,360 --> 00:05:00,570 otherwise. Your fingerprints are all over it. But don't have to subscribe. The fact that the markets are delivered by an algorithm that If you want to
25 00:05:00,570 --> 00:05:07,830 subscribe to the idea that it's a free market, it's applied to me in a buying selling pressure, by all means, run with that, as long as you're using the
26 00:05:07,830 --> 00:05:19,830 concepts. without admitting to that view, the concepts will serve you well. Okay? It doesn't matter if you subscribe to that view or not. But looking at
27 00:05:19,830 --> 00:05:31,590 what we have here on the hourly chart on the right hand side, these are to to clean for me. And tomorrow's trading, because we traded up into the bottom end
28 00:05:31,830 --> 00:05:42,240 of that fair value got retail sees this is a bull flag on the daily chart, I know it's probably not zoomed in really tight. And I apologize, I was trying to
29 00:05:42,240 --> 00:05:52,350 get this to show up where I can do a presentation where I can show it bigger. But I'm a noob when it comes to live streaming, so it's a work in progress. So
30 00:05:52,470 --> 00:06:00,540 bear with me. You can get these ranges, obviously, by looking at the hourly chart and seeing where it's out here. And which is the encouragement I'm trying
31 00:06:00,540 --> 00:06:06,840 to provide for you. So don't just simply take my stuff and think well, I've done my analysis because it talked about now you got to go into the charts and do the
32 00:06:06,840 --> 00:06:15,270 work. annotate it that way you have the levels on your chart, when you watch it print real time, you'll see the sensitivity of these levels or the lack thereof.
33 00:06:15,690 --> 00:06:27,570 And that'll give you insight as well. So what I'm looking for for dollar is do we fail to go any higher than this? Should we start to break down? What would be
34 00:06:27,570 --> 00:06:38,940 a valid break down in my opinion, looking at the hourly chart, if we go below the lows here, if we go below these lows, there's really nothing down here that
35 00:06:38,940 --> 00:06:47,760 needs to be rebalanced, everything's overlap every candle. Next candle here, we trade down to that low this candle, we trade all the way back down into this
36 00:06:47,760 --> 00:06:57,060 candle run back higher this candle we trade back down and an overlap over into this candles high. So everything is back and forth. It's like a well painted
37 00:06:57,090 --> 00:07:05,940 wall. Okay, imagine you're a painter and you're taking the paint, applying it to the roller. Every time you roll that roller on the wall, it's distributing the
38 00:07:05,940 --> 00:07:14,190 paint, just like the price is being distributed to this chart here. And every time it goes up, it comes back down, make a chart leaves no gaps. So this is
39 00:07:14,190 --> 00:07:25,260 very efficiently delivered all the way up to here. And now here. The only areas of inefficiency that exist on this chart is a very, very small little separation
40 00:07:25,260 --> 00:07:37,320 between this candle here, down close candle and this candle here that low, very small. And because we have we have essentially, repriced back down into this
41 00:07:37,320 --> 00:07:46,710 candles high with this drop, or this opening here. And I don't know if we're going to run higher, because with all this, this is a wreck. Okay, I mean, this
42 00:07:46,710 --> 00:08:02,670 is a lot of just really difficult price action to work with. So in short, plain terms, I'm requiring the market to show me a lot more right now. Whereas I can
43 00:08:02,670 --> 00:08:13,350 argue that, okay, the daily chart, we've had very strong momentum on the upside, this is reasonable to expect a pause, or a slowdown because of the fair value
44 00:08:13,350 --> 00:08:22,080 gap. But if it's really bullish, if it does rally above the fair value gap, my eye goes right to here. Okay, that buyside liquidity pool, which was an old
45 00:08:22,440 --> 00:08:35,370 volume imbalance, now, turn potentially a bicycle repo. So if we start to run higher analogy we get above here. What would I like to see if we rally that plan
46 00:08:35,370 --> 00:08:46,380 a not Plan B, I'm telling you what I'm looking for, because I have no hard line bias going into tomorrow. Because I can argue both sides of the equation here. I
47 00:08:46,380 --> 00:08:55,500 can make an argument that here's what I would look for, for a bullish run. This is what I look for, for a bearish run. If my analysis is ever liked that in my,
48 00:08:55,710 --> 00:09:07,110 my teachings, and my students know this as a hallmark to me, I'm usually a one way street. Okay, and I, this is what I'm looking for. And that's it. But the
49 00:09:07,110 --> 00:09:16,110 time if you're wanting to be mentored by me, my transparency is always when I don't know, I'm going to tell you I don't know. And there's nothing wrong with
50 00:09:16,110 --> 00:09:25,590 admitting when you don't know. Students generally look at me. And they think that I'm always going to know every thing that's going to occur next, there's
51 00:09:25,590 --> 00:09:34,950 sometimes I don't know. And don't try to pressure yourself into that expectation, or hold that expectation over yourself. Because it's unrealistic.
52 00:09:35,040 --> 00:09:42,300 It's unhealthy, you're not going to be able to sustain it, you're not going to deliver on it. I can't even deliver on that. So the point is, when the markets
53 00:09:42,300 --> 00:09:51,600 communicating in decisiveness, I don't know what the algorithm is going to reprice to if it's going to go higher. How would I like to see price if it's
54 00:09:51,600 --> 00:09:59,430 going to go higher? Let me go through that first. If we press through overnight or going to tomorrow, and we get above this fair value gap because all of this
55 00:09:59,430 --> 00:10:08,040 is back in forth except for this small little area here where we learned one candle come on reprice to the low on this bearish order block. If we rally above
56 00:10:08,040 --> 00:10:18,660 this fair value get in it comes down and touches this as support preferably before taking out this high, then I would feel comfortable that it's going to
57 00:10:18,690 --> 00:10:27,000 probably run up into the midpoint or mean threshold of this up close candle here on the daily chart, I'll leave that homework for you to determine what that
58 00:10:27,000 --> 00:10:37,560 price level is. And it would have to get through that level before I even consider here. So if it's bullish, the draw and liquidity would be mean
59 00:10:37,560 --> 00:10:42,210 threshold of the bullish candle on your daily chart.
60 00:10:44,070 --> 00:10:55,440 And in the Buy Sell liquidity pool here. Now, this is where the argument is, for me, with the internal dialogue of looking for bullish or bearish because I can
61 00:10:55,440 --> 00:11:06,690 frame both sides, we have left relative equal lows, what I would have rather seen today is if we would have came through these lows here, and then delivered
62 00:11:06,690 --> 00:11:19,200 this, then I would trust the fact that we would probably be seeing higher prices in dollar and continued weakness in foreign currencies and or stock indices. But
63 00:11:19,200 --> 00:11:27,570 because we have left both of them, it gives me peace of mind, it rests on my hands and say, I don't need to do anything right now. That's a very important
64 00:11:27,570 --> 00:11:36,300 lesson for developing students, because it's always this tendency to want to do something, to want to push the button to trade, see what happens when I push the
65 00:11:36,300 --> 00:11:46,170 button, I want to I'm gonna see what happens. Well, in this instance, if you were to do that right now, in my opinion, in my opinion, is just that it's just
66 00:11:46,170 --> 00:11:58,410 an opinion, you will be gambling, because there's nothing hardline in terms of high probability for it to go higher or go lower, because we bumped up and look
67 00:11:58,410 --> 00:12:07,680 at the bodies respecting the low end of that range. That's the fair pay gap on the daily chart. And that's a higher timeframe daily range. Also note that this
68 00:12:07,680 --> 00:12:18,390 right here, this low, between this high and this high, that's a bearish breaker. These two down close candles together, it's all one for the hourly chart. And
69 00:12:18,390 --> 00:12:27,000 that's that range from this candle. And this lower candle here, the two down light candles on your chart, I didn't add it here because I don't want all the
70 00:12:27,000 --> 00:12:38,340 business on my chart, you can do this on your own. Take a rectangle. Later on top of these two down close candles, these black candles for my chart. And then
71 00:12:38,400 --> 00:12:49,950 to the right, and you'll see we have traded up into that. So if we break lower, come back up and touch the small little fair backup in here, I would treat that
72 00:12:50,160 --> 00:12:59,250 that would be enough for me to look for potential weakness going down into this low here. If we take out this low, then I think we're really going to run for
73 00:12:59,700 --> 00:13:08,490 the sell side below here. That does not mean that the dollar is going to collapse and go lower and go into 101 or something to that effect. It just means
74 00:13:08,490 --> 00:13:18,090 that I would look for this intraday tomorrow, which is really the Climate War market profile that we're in right now because it's indecisive. One could argue
75 00:13:18,090 --> 00:13:28,530 either case, and neither one of them being high probability. So you're basically gambling. And you're, you don't have anything behind it except for you would
76 00:13:28,530 --> 00:13:36,690 want this to occur, versus what's the market really showing you. Because if my concepts are there, and it's high probability, it's going to be next to
77 00:13:36,690 --> 00:13:46,950 impossible to argue the other side of the equation. In other words, if I'm bearish, I see no way whatsoever for a bullish scenario. So that means I'm high
78 00:13:46,950 --> 00:14:00,000 probability, low resistance liquidity run, going short. If I'm bullish, I see no opportunity for a shorting opportunity for me with my concepts than I am in high
79 00:14:00,000 --> 00:14:12,180 probability long. And what the expectations are low resistance, liquidity run, low resistance, liquidity run signatures are going to be easily identified when
80 00:14:12,180 --> 00:14:21,480 the markets one sided. And don't think that it's always a trending market, Michael, that's the only one that you trade. And no. Today I did an example of
81 00:14:21,480 --> 00:14:32,700 it. Today, I tweeted out and you'll see I'll go over. But it doesn't need to necessarily be in a existing trending market. It's when I'm looking for the
82 00:14:32,700 --> 00:14:42,810 liquidity once it's obvious, and you'll I'll show those signatures tonight when es once they're there, it's next to impossible to argue the other side of it,
83 00:14:42,870 --> 00:14:50,790 and that's why I have strong conviction. And it's the question I get a lot how do I know how do I trust? When do I know it's going to do these low resistance
84 00:14:50,790 --> 00:14:56,970 liquid around signatures? When is it going to run real fast? How do you know when you're imitating the chart? When you Tweet us? It's going to do this it's
85 00:14:56,970 --> 00:15:06,420 going to do that? How do you know that? It's because I I'm inside of a low resistance, liquidity run signature within a market structure that's predisposed
86 00:15:06,420 --> 00:15:17,760 to go in the direction I'm trading in. Everything is heavy handed on my favor, not against me. And there's certain things in the market and price action that
87 00:15:17,760 --> 00:15:26,970 will deliver that understanding to you. But you have to do this for a number of months and weeks and, and see it, and it will start communicating by experience,
88 00:15:26,970 --> 00:15:34,740 you can't just simply listen to me talk about it, I can't give you a chart and point to this is what it is. So therefore, now you understand it needs to be
89 00:15:34,740 --> 00:15:42,870 experienced, it's something that you forge, through experience daily doing it and seeing it, that's the only way you're going to get that skill set, which is
90 00:15:42,870 --> 00:15:53,640 why the failed students in my community that either are here failing, or have left and complained, they don't want to wrestle with this, they wanted to easy
91 00:15:53,640 --> 00:16:01,200 123, you know, this is all you got to do. And it's easy all the time. Well, it's like that when you can identify the lower just in the corner and signature. It
92 00:16:01,200 --> 00:16:13,530 is just like that. But the problem is the market doesn't always deliver those conditions. And you have to identify what that is navigate it. Who were stay out
93 00:16:13,530 --> 00:16:24,210 of it. And I teach my students don't try to trade in high resistance liquidity runs, you saw the, the way the market was holding it back. The other day, when
94 00:16:24,210 --> 00:16:38,190 we were calling it on. The day the Fed chair was trying, Jawbone or whatever it was holding it down, it was consolidating. And then finally, it went to where I
95 00:16:38,190 --> 00:16:49,740 said it was going to go, but not easily, it was met with a lot of resistance. And it keeps you feeling impatient. While waiting for the trader to develop and
96 00:16:49,740 --> 00:17:00,390 pan out versus today as we'll go over, where it's like, okay, Johnny on the spot ICT comes in, it's going down to 4160. And bang, it just a few candles, it's
97 00:17:00,390 --> 00:17:08,910 handed to you on a silver platter. That's what I try to teach my students and look for those immediate instant gratification setups where you're not wrestling
98 00:17:08,910 --> 00:17:14,520 around, it doesn't give you that much time to be worrying about whether you're on site or off site, it means you're either on the right side of the trade or
99 00:17:14,550 --> 00:17:24,090 not on the right side of the trade. If you start getting in trades, and it's not moving for you, within a reasonable amount of time, what's a reasonable return,
100 00:17:24,780 --> 00:17:34,440 I don't know, it's gonna be relative to you, and your personal appetite for patients or the lack thereof. Because a setup is a setup, and I don't know what
101 00:17:34,440 --> 00:17:42,690 timeframe you're trading on. But if you're using a one minute chart, you want to be seeing some movement within 10 minutes of your entry minimum, okay, that
102 00:17:42,690 --> 00:17:50,370 you've got to see something showing you, if you're in there for 10 minutes, and it's not performing for you, then you're probably not on the right side or you
103 00:17:50,370 --> 00:18:00,690 enter too early, or you're absolutely just completely wrong. And there's a lot of things that are beneficial to me as a teacher using these one minute charts
104 00:18:00,690 --> 00:18:09,780 because it gives you lots of practice, and also gives you instant feedback. Whereas if I tried to teach on a daily chart, it would not be as effective. But
105 00:18:09,780 --> 00:18:19,440 the same logic would be utilized on that daily chart. So I don't know what we're going to do with dollar, I don't know that how that is going to impact the stock
106 00:18:19,440 --> 00:18:27,450 market and I don't know how it's going to impact Forex. So that's what we're going through. That way you know you can sleep soundly tonight I don't think
107 00:18:27,450 --> 00:18:34,860 it's going to be a big explosive move that I need to be worrying about because I can't see it yet. It's not there yet. Okay, the cards are still being shuffled
108 00:18:36,270 --> 00:18:45,150 and obviously we'll see what happens in the morning all right Eurodollar on the left hand side is a daily chart as I mentioned, you know we went up into our
109 00:18:45,750 --> 00:18:54,420 city which is very very got hit that beautifully came back down into this box out of balance also inefficiency, this shaded area is this shape very on an
110 00:18:54,420 --> 00:19:09,330 hourly chart on the right hand side. Now look at what we have here we have this drop into this very very gap on the daily chart. So it goes down basically down
111 00:19:09,330 --> 00:19:20,220 into consequent encouragement about midpoint of it and then we have this really nice run trades up to bearish order block by sides taken trades up and then
112 00:19:20,220 --> 00:19:31,080 rejected immediately comes back down into an order block so well here then we rally and then we sloppily just increase and then run one more time up into this
113 00:19:31,080 --> 00:19:38,880 but leaves the high intact and then we just fall off today. And now we're the resting rate on top that same fair value get that's over here on the daily chart
114 00:19:38,880 --> 00:19:45,990 which is this up close candle and I'll leave that for you should already have in your chart based on the analysis and the charting I already did for you on
115 00:19:45,990 --> 00:19:59,970 YouTube the other day. Now everything I mentioned for dollar, just reverse it. Okay, everything I mentioned for dollar, apply it here but in reverse order
116 00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:04,410 because everything is inversely correlated.
117 00:20:06,360 --> 00:20:14,430 I like the fact that there's a Buy Sell liquidity pool here. I like the fact that we're sitting at the fair value gap again, I like the fact that we've had
118 00:20:14,460 --> 00:20:24,090 all of this back and forth price action in here. And we moved higher and left that there. And we dropped today. To me, it feels. And this is just me,
119 00:20:24,420 --> 00:20:32,640 speculating right now, it's not me forecasting. I'm not cosigning because for me to say that would be indicating that I have an opinion or bias already for
120 00:20:32,640 --> 00:20:43,140 dollar, and I don't. But I like that the market is sitting at this level. And we have all this rejection in here. And it just looks too obvious, in my opinion,
121 00:20:43,440 --> 00:20:53,550 that they left this here. So does that mean that the Euro dollar is going to rally up in dollars going to go lower? Well, if it goes here for Euro, then yes,
122 00:20:53,550 --> 00:21:02,010 the dollar index would drop. But I don't know that yet. And there's nothing in here that would get me excited to take a trade, I wouldn't be able to do
123 00:21:02,010 --> 00:21:13,080 anything. So I'd have to wait and see what we get tomorrow. What do we see at 830? In New York time, what do we get 930 is opening. So it's a matter of wait
124 00:21:13,080 --> 00:21:22,440 and see. Versus when there's other instances where the market is really given me clear indications about what it's likely to do. I'll talk to you about and I'll
125 00:21:22,440 --> 00:21:28,860 say this is what I think it's going to do. And there it is. And it'll be one sided, there won't be the both side of the equation. But I'm telling you the
126 00:21:28,860 --> 00:21:37,890 things I'm looking for, if you're watching price action, and you see something that you know has been taught to you that would expect to see delivery to that
127 00:21:37,890 --> 00:21:46,560 level, whether it be going lower or going higher. You'll know what I'd be looking for if I was there with you at the time saying okay, what do you think
128 00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:56,550 it's going to go to ICTU, I think the draw would be here. So I'm giving you both sides, only in those instances where I don't have a bias that's determined. So I
129 00:21:56,550 --> 00:22:06,510 give you both sides. That way you can study it. And you can also beat me to my analysis and or my review. So that way, you can compare and contrast what I show
130 00:22:06,510 --> 00:22:14,910 in the next video review versus what you already have in your annotation. So it waits interactive, it allows you to be progressive, about learning, not just
131 00:22:14,910 --> 00:22:24,000 simply listening to ICT. And hear me talk about the things I'm talking about. It allows you to go in let your eye and your attention go to where you'd like
132 00:22:25,260 --> 00:22:33,450 within price action, things that you want to see as a signature for your model. So it allows you to develop organically, not me try to shove you into a mold,
133 00:22:33,630 --> 00:22:47,250 which won't work. So we're indecisive right now for Euro, just like dollar or E Mini s&p. I mentioned that we had the buy sell equity pool, here we go or so.
134 00:22:47,310 --> 00:22:58,710 And we ran up into that obviously, we have a volume imbalance here, and we have a volume imbalance in here ran up failed to go above the high. Today we had a
135 00:22:58,710 --> 00:23:10,140 little bit of a give back. These two volume imbalances, why don't have them noted. You want to have them both annotated on your daily chart and extend them
136 00:23:10,140 --> 00:23:21,900 through price action for Thursday and Friday's trading. Because those levels may be impactful. And you don't want to just do it like one big bulk area, don't use
137 00:23:21,900 --> 00:23:31,350 the highest high and the lowest low of the volume bounces, you collectively do them individually. And then label them respectively in your chart that way, when
138 00:23:31,350 --> 00:23:41,940 you watch price action if it responds to those levels, and I'll explain what that means what it would look like. They're going to behave just like the new
139 00:23:41,940 --> 00:23:53,040 week opening gap, which is what's being shown here on the hourly chart. So the s&p hourly chart, Friday's close. That's what this level is here. And then
140 00:23:53,040 --> 00:24:10,590 Sunday's opening. Down here hear actually, I just realized I have that one and all we tried on here that's not accurate. In that should be on different level.
141 00:24:11,460 --> 00:24:20,310 The Friday closing price and Sunday's opening price, make sure that's on your chart. Then whenever that range is every new week, and you do the same thing
142 00:24:20,370 --> 00:24:31,860 every time there's a gap opening. So when we close our session at 5pm Each day, Monday through Friday, or not Friday, but Monday through Thursday. When we open
143 00:24:31,860 --> 00:24:40,650 again at six o'clock when there's that one hour gap of new trading, you want to do the same thing I'm teaching you to do with the new week opening gap, use the
144 00:24:40,650 --> 00:24:52,860 closing price and then the new opening price at six o'clock and then that that range, divide that in half and extend that throughout the next 12 to 16 hours.
145 00:24:53,460 --> 00:25:08,550 And that right there will also act much like you see with the new week opening gap So we have our HR here, what was kind of wild today really a lot of
146 00:25:08,550 --> 00:25:17,610 uncertainty in the beginning of the day, it was a, it was a mess. I wasn't feeling well on top of it. And I just didn't, I didn't like what I was seeing.
147 00:25:17,940 --> 00:25:26,850 And I was able to look at a couple of different little small moves and such. But it wasn't until later on in the day where I felt very strong conviction about
148 00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:35,670 what it is I was looking for. And I'll explain that now and go into the lower timeframes on the left hand side is our 15 minute timeframe. Here's a homework
149 00:25:35,670 --> 00:25:54,660 assignment. On your 15 minute chart on ES. This high, you want to put your Fibonacci on the closing price, and the high and get the 50% level, then take it
150 00:25:54,750 --> 00:26:09,060 fail and place it on the 50% level down to the close. That new 50% level is 25% of this wick. That's what this level is here. Go down to your lower timeframes.
151 00:26:09,060 --> 00:26:18,960 And you'll see much like you see over here, look how price is sensitive to that. It's that level trades down. Now, how is that useful? Why is it even useful?
152 00:26:18,990 --> 00:26:26,160 Because I'm sure some of you are thinking, well, that's cherry picked. If you think that the market is bearish, and you're going to come to these conclusions
153 00:26:26,160 --> 00:26:35,160 in your own analysis in your own good time. If you think the market is not likely to go through an old high that has a big long wick like that, if it's
154 00:26:35,160 --> 00:26:45,720 extremely challenging for it to go higher, it will not likely do what tray the consequent encouragement, which is the midpoint of the gap. So if it's not going
155 00:26:45,720 --> 00:26:55,620 to go there, where could it go? I don't do things in zones, okay, I don't just go out there and say, well, here's a big area where you know, if it goes there
156 00:26:55,620 --> 00:27:04,200 and turns around, I can come back and say, look how smart I was. Okay, I give you very specific levels, because that's exactly what the algorithms gonna do.
157 00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:15,420 If there is no algorithm, then there would be what randomness. But the argument is, there's all this buying and selling pressure that always completely delivers
158 00:27:16,140 --> 00:27:25,560 precision when you're looking for it with the lenses that I'm providing you, if you look for the algorithm with the signatures as the footprints to look for,
159 00:27:26,070 --> 00:27:35,550 and you'll see Debian evidence is all over it. But if you go in with the argument that there is no art, there is an algorithm. It's buying song pressure,
160 00:27:35,850 --> 00:27:47,760 it's all completely random. And, you know, retail things in Oregon organized, usually usage of a indicator based strategy, that's the real reason why price is
161 00:27:47,760 --> 00:27:58,110 going up, then you'll see what you want to say, because you're going in looking for what you want to see. But strip it away and say, Okay, if there is control,
162 00:27:59,100 --> 00:28:11,550 if there is a management function behind price, and how, where and how and when it goes where it's supposed to go. How is it possible? Because this, I mean, I
163 00:28:11,550 --> 00:28:23,340 already know there's an algorithm when you're when you're talking to it. So if you're on the fence about it, then how does one argue how all these things with
164 00:28:23,340 --> 00:28:34,020 buying and selling pressure? And, you know, all these theories and approaches to trading? How is it that price stops and turns on a dime, and goes to the levels
165 00:28:34,020 --> 00:28:44,460 that I'm outlining beforehand? And that logic repeats itself over and over again? And it makes perfect sense. It makes perfect sense when you look at it
166 00:28:44,460 --> 00:28:55,860 that way. I can't be convinced. No one could convince me. Like, if I didn't know it for a fact, no one would be able to convince me after seeing this, like this,
167 00:28:56,580 --> 00:29:08,850 that there's something behind it all. There's something controlling the ebb and flow. It feels like it's organic, it feels like it's, you know, it's a free
168 00:29:08,850 --> 00:29:17,520 market. Yes, the markets gonna fluctuate. There's all kinds of movement around there, it's fine. But the argument you see, and this is what's proposed all the
169 00:29:17,520 --> 00:29:25,890 time. All you have to do is look at the depth of market, look at the DOM, look at the level two data, you'll see the orders. That's what's going on. Those
170 00:29:25,890 --> 00:29:36,600 orders are spooked. They're not necessarily there just because you see them on there does not mean that that's exactly resting there. It can be there for a
171 00:29:36,600 --> 00:29:48,030 little while and then pulled. Don't think it can happen. Oh, there's people at Goldman Sachs that got fined for doing it. Oops. So
172 00:29:49,470 --> 00:29:58,890 that's a gimmick. You don't need that the market you don't need level two. Everything is in the chart. It's it's being told to you with the open high, low
173 00:29:58,890 --> 00:30:10,680 and close by Those three that I'm sorry, there's four price levels removed the idea of a free market. Because when you study price based with time, certain
174 00:30:10,710 --> 00:30:22,740 times of the day, the market will do certain things. But you're told over time and indoctrination that buyers are controlling the market higher and sellers are
175 00:30:22,740 --> 00:30:29,910 controlling the market lower Oh sellers are coming in. They're muscling the market. No, they're not. Buyers are coming in. They're muscling the market. No,
176 00:30:29,910 --> 00:30:40,710 they're not. You may be buying when prices going up, but you didn't push it their volume, we have a new high, but it's on low volume. That doesn't make any
177 00:30:40,710 --> 00:30:50,790 sense now does it? Here we have a higher high, look at this big old run up his his candle is huge. It's really big, it goes up and takes out a previous high.
178 00:30:51,900 --> 00:31:02,580 But it does sell on lower volume. And you're going to argue and say that it's buying pressure to hook it up there. How's it arguable that buying pressure was
179 00:31:02,580 --> 00:31:13,680 less than the previous time it rallied up here. But yet it outperformed it in magnitude and delivery. That's make believe. Okay, that's a fairy tale. But the
180 00:31:13,680 --> 00:31:24,390 big lie that's told over and over and over again, eventually is accepted. And it feels uncomfortable to wake up and see things aren't really like this anymore.
181 00:31:26,160 --> 00:31:36,300 There's something that has transitioned. So there's something different in these markets now. And they're highly efficiently delivered. And there's nothing to be
182 00:31:36,300 --> 00:31:46,740 afraid of you guys that are arguing about it all the time. You don't want to come to this team, there is no ICT team. Okay, you want to learn how to read
183 00:31:46,740 --> 00:31:57,600 price. That's it. So you want to do and when you identify the signatures that repeat, and there's a number of them that I'm going to teach new this year, you
184 00:31:57,600 --> 00:32:09,330 will see there's absolutely nothing to be fearful of, they're not going to stop it, it can't be stopped. As long as there's a market, it will repeat. And that's
185 00:32:09,330 --> 00:32:22,680 the wonderful thing. It can not be hidden from you. It can't be as long as there's going to be an open and close to a market. And the valuation that we can
186 00:32:22,680 --> 00:32:32,100 measure it at the highest high and the lowest low. When that stops. When the ability for us to be able to see that and have that information in our hands
187 00:32:32,220 --> 00:32:41,700 when that is kept from you, then and only then should you have something to worry about. Because as long as you have access to data, guess what you have
188 00:32:41,730 --> 00:32:54,000 everything you need. Because everything we're reading here is how we're going to fleece, the retail. We're looking at these moments where the market is likely to
189 00:32:54,000 --> 00:33:12,630 do damage or trick entice lower traders in, go up and engage a pool of liquidity for buyers. If it meets a criteria that fits a narrative. Why should it go up
190 00:33:12,630 --> 00:33:23,940 there? Well, if there is an entity that is collectively referred to as smart money, they will use that liquidity of an old high to get short and aim for what
191 00:33:24,330 --> 00:33:36,720 an old low or in an efficiency below market price. And then they will offset their short position at a discount price. While those discount prices are being
192 00:33:36,720 --> 00:33:49,230 viewed by retail traders as Oh, this is our stop loss because we're trying to be long. And their willingness to sell below an old low is ideal for smart money
193 00:33:49,230 --> 00:33:57,930 that wants to buy at a very low price. That's how they cover their short. So when you change your perspective, and you have that market efficiency paradigm
194 00:33:58,440 --> 00:34:12,480 shift in the awareness of how price is actually being being booked. Listen, it's not it's not something they want widely understood. That's why it's not taught.
195 00:34:12,900 --> 00:34:21,420 That's not that's why it's not shown and that's why you're gonna see resistance to it. Because there's a lot of people in this industry that don't want you to
196 00:34:21,420 --> 00:34:35,940 know what you're learning here. Too fucking bad because it's happening. So back to the s&p this quarter level of this entire wick that right there. You want to
197 00:34:35,940 --> 00:34:45,180 study that okay? And in your notes in your in your journal, like something's up in here in this area here. You want to write that when there is a heavy bearish
198 00:34:45,210 --> 00:34:58,980 stance on price. Consequent encroachment of a wick is likely not to be traded to if you suspect that is the case. You get the very specific price level one
199 00:34:58,980 --> 00:35:08,730 quarter of the wick Don't take my word for it go back through your charts and your jaw will drop. But with that said, the market trades below this short term
200 00:35:08,730 --> 00:35:19,470 low here breaks lower. Now we have the classic model 2022 that I taught last year on YouTube channel. Mark trades up into it sells off consolidates a little
201 00:35:19,470 --> 00:35:30,150 bit, we go into the New York session with relative equal highs here that's by side. Now here's one of the things that you also will feel uncomfortable about,
202 00:35:30,150 --> 00:35:38,130 you're going to look at certain candles that I'll refer to. And you're probably looking at this and saying, Well, why don't you use this old high here? Well,
203 00:35:38,130 --> 00:35:45,960 look what happened. We have a city here. So it's an unbalanced by some inefficiency, which is a fair value get by classification. But specifically, it
204 00:35:45,960 --> 00:35:58,350 is sellside, unbalanced by some inefficiency, the markets, repriced up into essentially what that entire range here, and then we left it. So what is this
205 00:35:58,350 --> 00:36:08,130 becoming a balanced price range. But we have to factor in time of day. So everything that's been shown here on the 15 minute timeframe go over here to the
206 00:36:08,130 --> 00:36:21,090 five minute chart, suddenly, things become more clear. Because you can see now here we have 123 times the market has provided what a smooth edge in your
207 00:36:21,090 --> 00:36:34,410 journal, you write smooth edges tend to be made jagged. So what happens is these smooth edges that look like resistance to a retail trader. So you're asking me,
208 00:36:34,590 --> 00:36:41,640 why am I not using this high here when I've already explained that? What I'm teaching you is once it's already done its work here. And then it creates a
209 00:36:41,640 --> 00:36:52,440 lower level of smooth relative equal highs to highs and I have three, what's the retail crowd going to think about that? Oh, that's strong resistance. So
210 00:36:52,440 --> 00:37:01,410 therefore, they can think what they can go short and put their stop loss, which is what kind of stop a buy stop. So they're going to try to go short. The market
211 00:37:01,410 --> 00:37:13,140 provides them the reason they want to go short. What's above here, buy stops. So the market does what it rallies up, fails to really bump through my tear. So
212 00:37:13,140 --> 00:37:22,170 what does this look like? That's a quadruple top? Man, we got to write a new chapter in the books now. Right? So they're thinking it's really, really strong
213 00:37:22,200 --> 00:37:31,650 resistance. They drop it down and drop it one more time to get the previous low here. Everybody's on board. Now they think it's going lower. And there was a
214 00:37:31,650 --> 00:37:42,660 market go run right back up, takes out all this myself liquidity. I was looking for this this morning. But I was fading in and out of sleep. Because I don't
215 00:37:42,660 --> 00:37:50,400 feel well. And I'm watching it and watching and all sudden I woke up from a daze. And I saw the volume imbalance sitting here on the chart. And it was
216 00:37:50,670 --> 00:37:58,500 coming back right up in terms. Let me please get this thing going. Because when you ever start Camtasia it doesn't just start right away recording, it makes you
217 00:37:58,500 --> 00:38:05,520 wait these three seconds or whatever. And it's like, Come on, man. Like you gotta wait for this thing to start up in the whole business. While I'm doing
218 00:38:05,520 --> 00:38:11,370 that. I'm trying to figure out okay, what I gotta say, when we're gonna say on the chart, I was like, I'm just gonna just enter it in and I'll annotate as I
219 00:38:11,370 --> 00:38:25,620 go. Well, because it has created this relative equal high here. And we ran up took that I mentioned this morning on Twitter that I said that you note 4160
220 00:38:26,430 --> 00:38:39,540 which is the new week opening gap high. So that's the basically it's the Friday's closing price of last week on ES. So when we're up here, I'm thinking
221 00:38:40,230 --> 00:38:54,420 4160 What's the narrative that gets us there? Well, whenever you see smooth edges like this, always, always expect that type of scenario and it runs off
222 00:38:54,420 --> 00:39:04,200 into it here. Once it does that. You're in a deep premium. The market participants are going to see that as well. That's a bullish breakout resistance
223 00:39:04,200 --> 00:39:13,890 is broken. There's buyers that have buy orders sitting there protecting a short position, but there's also traders is thinking okay, this is going down maybe
224 00:39:13,890 --> 00:39:20,730 all the divergences that may be occurring in your indicators which I don't need to see an indicator to know that they were diverging in here. bullishly market
225 00:39:20,730 --> 00:39:26,460 rallies up anything all right now I gotta have confirmation. What's the confirmation we have to see these levels here broken out because if it breaks
226 00:39:26,460 --> 00:39:36,570 out like that, then they're going to feel confident that they can go long. Wonderful. So you have buyers that want to break out and go long and you have
227 00:39:36,570 --> 00:39:41,640 buyers that want to protect the short, beautiful, that's a very, very
228 00:39:43,560 --> 00:39:58,710 well saturated area for buy side liquidity. Who would benefit from price just going up here just a little bit. Buyers ran out of steam here. Buyers ran up
229 00:39:58,710 --> 00:40:05,880 here buying pressure or took us up to here. And then all of a sudden, what buying pressure ran out? Why would why would it do that when there's a huge pool
230 00:40:05,880 --> 00:40:16,680 of liquidity resting right here of buy orders? Oops, oops, oh, we got a problem with that narrative. Now, retail just failed with that logic. It doesn't make
231 00:40:16,680 --> 00:40:27,060 any sense. You have a huge pool of liquidity here with real buyers. Why didn't that send it higher? Because it's designed to do that, it's only going to go out
232 00:40:27,060 --> 00:40:37,770 there and trigger those buy stops. So that way, smart money, the collective entity that does what I'm teaching you to do in price action, they're going to
233 00:40:37,770 --> 00:40:50,190 go in and gather up all that liquidity to be counterparty to, to go short, they're going to sell it to those buy stops, as the market runs right up in
234 00:40:50,190 --> 00:41:00,810 there. And when the algorithm prices it right there, that's when their orders come in, boom, boom, boom. Where's it go? The level I told you this morning on
235 00:41:00,810 --> 00:41:16,050 Twitter 4160. I'm sorry, 4146. So 4146, the closing price on Friday, that was a draw on liquidity, a lot of manipulation, a lot of just back and forth, back and
236 00:41:16,050 --> 00:41:26,730 forth. And once it cleared these relative equal highs, then it was off to the races, real quick, sudden decline. But now let's go into a lower timeframe chart
237 00:41:26,730 --> 00:41:36,120 and take a closer look at it. What will still stay on the five minutes right here. Here's that same zoomed in area where Basa liquidity is resting here, it
238 00:41:36,120 --> 00:41:50,790 only bumps up to right there like that. And once it hits, it doesn't spend a lot of time waiting around, no. market reaches lower. And while we're inside of this
239 00:41:50,790 --> 00:42:08,160 area here, we're still at a premium. So I'm going to show you how we can use the pdra matrix to map out a premium to discount market in a implied dealing range.
240 00:42:09,060 --> 00:42:19,710 This is the part where you take notes. Alright, so we're zoomed in, in that same area here. But now on a one minute chart. This is the PV array matrix. And the
241 00:42:19,710 --> 00:42:32,130 range I'm using here so that we can do it on your own charts not to simply take my chart and think you've done the work from this high, down to the 4146 even
242 00:42:32,130 --> 00:42:38,550 level now why am I referencing that because that's the target. I told you the price was going to go to today this morning on Twitter, it's going to return
243 00:42:38,550 --> 00:42:49,020 back to what the new week opening gap, it's gonna be like a magnet folks, it's going to want to draw back to that. Why? Because for the week, for the entire
244 00:42:49,020 --> 00:42:58,560 weekly candle for between the highest sign a low us low. If it's not a trending market, what's it going to do, it's going to treat the new week opening gap as
245 00:42:58,560 --> 00:43:09,690 fair value. And it's going to want to revert back to that continuously. And that allows for new sentiment to come in. Oh, it goes back to that that gap. Okay, a
246 00:43:09,690 --> 00:43:19,920 lot of lot of algorithms, not the algorithm, that's the price engine. But the algorithms that operate on the fun level, they will likely use that opening gap
247 00:43:19,920 --> 00:43:28,110 to constitute their new trade idea based on a new sentiment idea because it trades back to it. Much like I'm teaching you to view it as what support and
248 00:43:28,110 --> 00:43:41,730 resistance. So if it's up here, and I'm telling you all focus on 4146, because it's likely go back to that weekly gap that opens on Sunday. What's the nearest
249 00:43:41,730 --> 00:43:53,760 price above the gap, it's the Friday's closing price which is 4146. So if that's the level we're looking for price to go to. And we're above it. And we're
250 00:43:53,760 --> 00:44:02,160 looking for lower prices, we create a high here, it starts to pull back into go below the high here and the relatively equal highs that we've had now four
251 00:44:02,160 --> 00:44:13,980 times. Remember the slide before I wanted this one, four times it banged into that level, and then we hit it here and then started to sell off? Where are we
252 00:44:13,980 --> 00:44:22,410 at? When price is trading right here? Are we in the red area which would be considered premium relative to the high to the target where we're looking to
253 00:44:22,410 --> 00:44:32,340 trade? We're looking for the draw on liquidity, the terminus, where is it likely to go to remember that's the thing I'm teaching all I need to focus on. The part
254 00:44:32,370 --> 00:44:44,040 of this puzzle is not knowing where it's going to next. And you're focusing on all the order blocks and what very gaps and when that is staying open. You're
255 00:44:44,040 --> 00:44:55,290 missing the whole entire plot. You have to be trained this year use this time with me to understand how why I'm teaching you how I'm teaching you. Where is it
256 00:44:55,290 --> 00:45:06,600 likely to go to next because all that question of what you're looking for Why does this and shouldn't do that, that becomes much easier to figure out when you
257 00:45:06,600 --> 00:45:14,280 know what the market is likely to do. And also, if I don't know what I'm doing, I won't be right. Well, that means there's no algorithm that means there's no
258 00:45:14,280 --> 00:45:22,920 way that there's an algorithm if I'm calling specific price levels as the next round liquidity, and they don't continuously consistently deliver, guess what
259 00:45:22,920 --> 00:45:34,170 that tells you, there is no algorithm. And every friggin day, I'm telling you, I'm only tweeting the winds, I'm not believing anything. So come on, join the
260 00:45:34,170 --> 00:45:41,790 party here. Okay, this is the real, this is the real shit. Okay, I'm just gonna tell you like that this is the way it is. This is it. This is the thing you're
261 00:45:41,790 --> 00:45:55,680 looking for. But you can't, you cannot learn this with one video or video series, you have to be walking it with me. And you see it, and you'll understand
262 00:45:55,680 --> 00:46:05,460 it. And you'll understand what each candle means. Each time it creates a new one, it falls into place into a storyline, the storyline is they ran the buy
263 00:46:05,460 --> 00:46:16,020 stops above those highs ran right up in there. Broke lower, you already knew 4146 was where we were looking for the draw on liquidity. I guarantee when you
264 00:46:16,020 --> 00:46:27,120 were seeing this rally up here, you're like, Oh, I see T got it wrong. I'm not gloating on this telling you I see this happening. It's like I'm reading all of
265 00:46:27,120 --> 00:46:39,480 your minds with these candlesticks. When this thing starts to break down, and we have a target 4146 You need to take your high. If you're short, or if you're
266 00:46:39,480 --> 00:46:49,950 looking to be short, the high that forms that you think is a suspect highest suspect high is a high that's been blown out. And you want to see if it
267 00:46:49,980 --> 00:47:07,080 maintains the rejection. So we don't know if this high is going to be well taken out, if you will, until we trade from premium to discount, we have that right
268 00:47:07,080 --> 00:47:20,520 here in the market does what returns back up into a premium, I'm scrambling to get Camtasia open right here. Finally gets open, get my chart open. And then
269 00:47:20,550 --> 00:47:31,890 right here. what's occurring? Look closely, I've already shared it with the Twitter community and actually showed it execution. So I traded this not to
270 00:47:31,890 --> 00:47:40,890 simply me talking about in hindsight, so you can look at the video on YouTube. I'll take the annotations off in a second. But look what we have here we have
271 00:47:40,890 --> 00:47:56,040 the high 241 46 Even which is the Friday closing price, which is the high end the top of the new week opening gap with that price level as a magnet, if price
272 00:47:56,040 --> 00:48:12,630 is up here relative to that target, and the highest here. If we go short in here, we're shorting what at equilibrium, or premium. Either one is okay. But
273 00:48:12,630 --> 00:48:23,820 you can't go in and start pyramid thing once we get down into here. Because once we start crossing into the halfway point of the discount level, you're too much
274 00:48:23,820 --> 00:48:32,520 in a discount that add more to it, which is the reason why you see me do one and done. And there it is. Yeah, I got in, there was no opportunity for me to
275 00:48:33,300 --> 00:48:45,180 pyramid it was a straight shot. 4146 Thank you very much, wham bam, Thank you, ma'am. But let me take the annotations off and you can see pay no attention to
276 00:48:45,180 --> 00:48:57,690 the fact that that standard deviation one takes us down to that really nice low, but this is extra no charge. So here's the level that's equilibrium. Do you see
277 00:48:57,690 --> 00:49:14,160 the volume imbalance right here? I've been teaching it that volume imbalance is at equilibrium and then a very small premium. My entry was short instantly
278 00:49:14,370 --> 00:49:24,210 delivered this type of movement right here this that is exactly what a low resistance liquidity run signature performs like.
279 00:49:25,830 --> 00:49:35,040 Now, do you want to be in a move like that? Or do you want to be in a move like this buying down here hoping it gets to this level of here buying here riding
280 00:49:35,070 --> 00:49:41,460 rolls all the way down this deep against you rallies, okay, it's gonna give it to me. It's gonna give us a note we're rolls back against you. If you put your
281 00:49:41,460 --> 00:49:50,490 stop here, you're taken out. Then it rallies up here, but you've been taken out, but it went to your target. That still happens to me if I trade in high
282 00:49:50,490 --> 00:49:58,950 resistance liquidy around signatures. I can trade in them. But it doesn't give me peace of mind. I don't want to be in a trade that has this roller coaster.
283 00:49:59,160 --> 00:50:06,720 Back and forth. still gets to where I think it's gonna go. There's other days the trade where I will have that, which is how I teach my students to trade.
284 00:50:07,020 --> 00:50:16,710 When we get in, we're looking for very quick responsiveness in price, we want to see instant feedback, we want to see how price goes right to what we're looking
285 00:50:16,710 --> 00:50:24,420 for, we don't want to be messing around, we want to be sitting around worrying about twiddling our thumbs, hyperventilating, huffing, and puffing, cussing,
286 00:50:25,350 --> 00:50:34,410 cursing the market. I've been there, folks, I've put my fist through several monitors. Over my career, I've done it. I don't do that anymore. It's boring to
287 00:50:34,410 --> 00:50:42,630 me. If I got it wrong, I got it wrong, I'm not gonna lose my mind, do it. I know what I'm looking for. In the future, it will repeat. It just means I've done
288 00:50:42,630 --> 00:50:51,690 something incorrect. And I assume that responsibility as a trader, but you won't hear that in books, you're going to hear people say, push your edge. Don't worry
289 00:50:51,690 --> 00:51:01,170 about the drawdown, trade your way out of it, the everything that's wrong. That's what's promoted. And there is a logic to look for opportunities that
290 00:51:01,170 --> 00:51:14,190 deliver instantaneously, powerfully, energetically. And it repeats over and over and over again. Look closely. The volume imbalance here. Why am I even looking
291 00:51:14,190 --> 00:51:23,040 at that? Because of everything on this outline how fast we move from this high? It's not likely to do what come back up to any of this imbalance. It's showing
292 00:51:23,040 --> 00:51:34,710 us what volume imbalance here, a fair value got another fair agar, another volume imbalance that did what we traded up into it here with that little bit of
293 00:51:34,710 --> 00:51:47,310 a wick. And we went down into discount halfway between the high here and target of 4146. So I know some of you are thinking, Okay, this is really complicated
294 00:51:47,310 --> 00:51:57,570 ICT it's not, it's only because you're seeing explained to you for the first time. It gets easier as you see it with me, you start walking through it. And
295 00:51:57,570 --> 00:52:06,510 you'll see it's exactly what I'm utilizing. I'm not creating new things each time to keep you from ever learning it my whole time with you this year is for
296 00:52:06,510 --> 00:52:17,100 you to learn this, not hold my hand ICT, I don't want to hold anybody saying I got a wife. In its own hand, I'm trying to hold this return back into that
297 00:52:17,100 --> 00:52:26,730 volume imbalance right there. That's it. That's the last That's it. That's the last bus stop. And then we're out of here. Elvis left the building. And here we
298 00:52:26,730 --> 00:52:37,920 have it delivering right where I said it was gonna go when nobody else up here was expecting that price there. So the narrative was run the buy stops
299 00:52:38,700 --> 00:52:54,030 accumulate that is short position for smart money. So the composite man sell short to the buy stops and buys the sell side liquidity to cover the short and
300 00:52:54,030 --> 00:53:01,320 the market rallies up to some random level between this candles low in this candles high, which is consequent encouragement. That's exactly what you're
301 00:53:01,320 --> 00:53:14,460 seeing right here. The market trades lower. So the market trades down to midpoint rally, midpoint. Sloppy, sloppy, sloppy, sloppy. And then between 1050
302 00:53:14,520 --> 00:53:27,600 and 1110. There's going to be a macro already know some of you are thinking okay, but you said 1052 1110. And then there's a 11. There's two of them. Okay.
303 00:53:28,470 --> 00:53:41,940 What did I teach you with Forex? What happens between 10am in New York local time to noon, New York local time. What time of day is that? That's one in
304 00:53:41,940 --> 00:53:56,160 close. That order flow that comes in at that time. You're going to have a macro that occurs at the 10 o'clock hour, and the 11 o'clock hour. Then at noon,
305 00:53:56,190 --> 00:54:08,670 between one and noon, noon o'clock, New York local time. There's an algorithm that runs there too, which returns us back to what the morning stops. There is a
306 00:54:08,670 --> 00:54:16,320 teaching coming, I want to make sure I have it in video format. Because I know some of you guys are writing books, to try to put it in print to beat nine books
307 00:54:16,320 --> 00:54:23,310 out there, but you're not going to be able to efficiently talk about it. You'll talk about something I've already done in a video. And then my video, I mean, my
308 00:54:23,310 --> 00:54:30,510 books will refer to videos that I've already put out in public. So that way everything's time date stamped and everybody knows where it came from. I'm
309 00:54:30,510 --> 00:54:42,210 sorry, I have to do it like that. But even this goobers out here to try to make a name for themselves. This is ridiculous. So between the 1050 and 1110 hour,
310 00:54:42,810 --> 00:54:54,780 there's a macro that will form that makes a run on liquidity that has not been taken yet. What does that look like? We have the market rally up and then breaks
311 00:54:54,840 --> 00:55:06,930 the short term low here relatively close. trades down and then Korea It's this very vague gap. It's a gap. Yes. But what kind of gap? Is it? Sibi si bi
312 00:55:06,960 --> 00:55:16,080 sellside imbalance by SATA inefficiencies. So what is it lacking delivery on the upside? So it overshoots it here, that's fine, no problem, small little gap
313 00:55:16,080 --> 00:55:27,390 here, if there's a gap like that your stop has to refer to that as well. Remember, if there's two fair value gaps, your stop has to at least respect that
314 00:55:27,390 --> 00:55:36,900 higher level Vega Well, it means is larger stuff, that means you're using less leverage. Okay, stop trying to be at the highest form of leverage, just because
315 00:55:36,900 --> 00:55:45,570 your funded account says you can trade 15 contract doesn't mean go in trading 15 contracts, believe me, they want you to fail, they make money doing that. Okay.
316 00:55:45,630 --> 00:55:51,180 And, again, that's the reason why I'm not gonna have a relationship with any of them, they can beg me to sign up with them all they want, I'm not going to do it
317 00:55:51,660 --> 00:56:02,220 to you have to do this responsibly. And there's a right way of doing it. And that means managing risk, not managing the potential to make the most and use
318 00:56:02,220 --> 00:56:11,910 the most leverage. That's what you're trained to do. Every influencer out there is telling you to do that, push it, push it, stack your funded accounts, get 20
319 00:56:11,910 --> 00:56:22,200 accounts, yeah, get 20 of them. Because when you blow all 20 of them, that means you're gonna have to do what 20 reps. They want that they absolutely want it.
320 00:56:22,290 --> 00:56:31,860 Because they know greed is going to tap you on the shoulder. You may conquer fear for a little while. But greed is going to be like, Hey, man, listen, it's
321 00:56:31,860 --> 00:56:42,960 real easy to restart these things. So just risk it, you want the biscuit, you gotta risk it, and then you shut the bid. Well, they get 20, new restarts, bang,
322 00:56:43,410 --> 00:56:50,880 just like that, because they know you're not going to stop, you're gonna do it. So when you have two fair value gaps, your stop loss has to respect that. And
323 00:56:50,880 --> 00:56:58,680 that means you have to do what use less leverage. It's about making money. It's not about showing on social media, I'm trading with 15 contracts, because that's
324 00:56:58,680 --> 00:57:09,450 the $150,000 account. Limitation I can trade with. I'm doing full leverage my lot sizes, we're talking about male genitalia measuring up again, that's not
325 00:57:09,450 --> 00:57:19,320 what this isn't. It's not about that. It's about consistently managing risk. Impeccably, being precise about what you're doing, when you're doing it, why
326 00:57:19,320 --> 00:57:28,380 you're doing it, taking partials along the way, because you don't know if your targets are gonna get hit, I can hold for full terminus, I can do that. But if I
327 00:57:28,380 --> 00:57:36,270 demonstrate that all the time, you're going to be wondering, I can't do that. And you're gonna fail more times trying to do that versus learning to take
328 00:57:36,270 --> 00:57:45,090 partials. Giving yourself that green belt, that blue belt, that red belt brown belt before you get to your black belt, which is holding trades to Terminus, I
329 00:57:45,090 --> 00:57:57,240 can do that. I'm gonna do 100 handles up now you've seen it. But I teach, gradually take small bites of that elephant, and you'll devour it. But it takes
330 00:57:57,240 --> 00:58:07,350 time. And it takes discipline to do these things over and over again, being content with enough, you've done enough to learn this much this week, this much
331 00:58:07,440 --> 00:58:20,070 that month, over the last three months, where have you gone? What's your progress like? So back to the macro. Remember, this was supposed to be real
332 00:58:20,070 --> 00:58:30,060 short video never ends up like that, just like a Twitter space, you always get more than you paid for. So in this imbalance, I'm sorry, in this imbalance here.
333 00:58:30,930 --> 00:58:41,220 It rallies up into the small little fair value gap here. And then we have the move lower. We trade down to the low here, rally back to the midpoint break
334 00:58:41,220 --> 00:58:48,990 lower once more sell side. So every instance, of London close
335 00:58:51,599 --> 00:59:02,699 between the 10 o'clock hour and 11 o'clock hour in noon, there are several things that occur that are algorithmic, I'm going to give you specific details
336 00:59:02,699 --> 00:59:12,359 about what you're looking for, when it should form, what times and what days, is it not likely to form and disregard it. They're usually trending days, trending
337 00:59:12,359 --> 00:59:21,539 days, you're not gonna see a macro, it's just going to be like, boom, goodbye off to the races, and it's not gonna be anywhere seen. But how many times you
338 00:59:21,539 --> 00:59:29,939 see that in trading? It's not a lot. So most of the time, you're gonna see certain little quirky things that repeat, and you can trade with them, you're
339 00:59:29,939 --> 00:59:44,459 gonna find that they themselves can be your entire trading model. So what does that mean? You can schedule your business down to a 20 minute window. Why? Yes,
340 00:59:44,879 --> 00:59:56,339 yes, Dorothy, we are no longer in Kansas. Okay, we're in the wonderful land of us. So, the market comes back up fails, come back up in fall short of the
341 00:59:56,339 --> 01:00:11,429 closing price on Friday. And then B big surge lower. Trading down into the low that Fibonacci from the high down to 4146. Pretty much nailed that. And then we
342 01:00:11,429 --> 01:00:21,989 traded into some sloppy conditions going into the afternoon session. Now before I go on the next slide and close this discussion, if we know that the market has
343 01:00:21,989 --> 01:00:39,479 traded from the high here, lower. What is the lunch hour going to do? It's going to run on what? Buy stops. So buy stocks during the morning session? Where would
344 01:00:39,479 --> 01:00:51,809 they most likely be? Well, you have this here, but we haven't. We don't have a whole lot of interest in something so shallow like that. Also, what did I tell
345 01:00:51,809 --> 01:01:03,959 you to look for? Throughout the entirety of the week? If there's an opening gap on Sunday, you extend that through the entire week? So are we interested in just
346 01:01:03,959 --> 01:01:19,859 running these here know? What high is between the gap that's formed on Fridays close and Sundays opening? This high here? So 4146 that's the that's the Morning
347 01:01:19,859 --> 01:01:28,949 high. Why? Why am I gonna pick that? Because it has to do with that weekly gap opening, the markets going to want to do what it's going to want to draw back
348 01:01:28,949 --> 01:01:40,079 into that. So who's making money right now, at this time? Looking at the chart right here? Who's making money? Shorts? So where's their stop? Yes, they're
349 01:01:40,079 --> 01:01:50,429 right here. But more specifically, the rate there? Because this highs forming when that new, you're already in the lunch hour? You're already in the lunch
350 01:01:50,429 --> 01:02:03,539 hour? That's not a high that runs the am session. Hi. I'm not saying the highest Hi, I'm saying the most recent high. Because Why think think folks think as the
351 01:02:03,539 --> 01:02:12,599 markets dropping, if they're short, what are they trying to do with their stop loss, jam it down to the next relative? High? Because they don't want to see the
352 01:02:12,599 --> 01:02:21,689 high taken. So their stop loss is going to be put just above it. So that's why you're going to focus right here. You understand that? I know you can't answer
353 01:02:21,689 --> 01:02:31,589 me, but think about it. When you're looking at price, you have to think about who's in that trade. How are they managing that trade? What is the worst case
354 01:02:31,589 --> 01:02:40,259 scenario for them on a nightmarish level that if they think is going to keep going lower, say in their mind, they think it's gonna go to 4000 even. I'm not
355 01:02:40,259 --> 01:02:47,909 saying that. But I'm saying that there's traders that think that kind of stuff all the time. They don't want to see their high taken out, even though they have
356 01:02:47,909 --> 01:03:00,539 their stock lost there. They don't think that's gonna happen. Well bring in the lunch hour. Here's the noon hour beginning is that short term, I said, we're not
357 01:03:00,539 --> 01:03:12,539 interested in that. We're looking at that high here. So this high has a m session by stops. So between noon and one o'clock in the afternoon, all this
358 01:03:12,629 --> 01:03:23,039 movement here. This is a high resistance liquidy run to it's a lot of rollercoaster ups and downs ups and downs. And where does it go? Ultimately,
359 01:03:23,039 --> 01:03:31,289 right where I mentioned, we'd see logically, the am session most recent high that would be considered a high for trailed stop losses, while the market
360 01:03:31,289 --> 01:03:38,549 dropped in the morning session. Real important, folks, if you don't have that recorded, if you didn't hear it properly listened to it several times in the
361 01:03:38,549 --> 01:03:48,089 video, because it's very plainly, it's plain language. It's plain English. It's very simplistic. But if you're new to trading, if you're new to speculation, and
362 01:03:48,089 --> 01:03:56,369 or even using a stop loss, because there's a lot of people out there, just don't even use a stop those that use a stop. Think like that, because that's what
363 01:03:56,369 --> 01:04:06,359 retail books and logic teaches them to do. I'm telling you how to be a carnivore, I'm teaching you how to be a predator to go after these retail minded
364 01:04:06,359 --> 01:04:17,639 theories, because they're flawed. They're designed to fail. They're absolutely bleeding you into the slaughterhouse. You're following all these Judas theory.
365 01:04:19,859 --> 01:04:26,549 You don't identify it because you think it's this? Well, you know, it's randomness that got me stopped out and I'll just, hopefully win the next one.
366 01:04:27,299 --> 01:04:37,499 Now, you're losing because you are trained to lose. You're taught well, lots of books and lots of offers out there. Keep promoting that garbage. It's not real
367 01:04:37,529 --> 01:04:52,439 information. It's misinformation. So the buy stocks that are resting above this high here. We run through that where post launch, when I saw at 131 30 is here.
368 01:04:53,939 --> 01:05:03,899 We're missing it by a minute or two. One more time it runs it. But look at this high here. Go back and look Get your charts, your jaw will drop, go over to this
369 01:05:03,899 --> 01:05:15,689 volume and bounce rate there. This candles opening price, which is the low the volume and bounce, that tick is the very tick high of that candle right there.
370 01:05:16,379 --> 01:05:26,609 So how far can it go above this hide around the stops? Well look to the left of what do you see? You see this wick? Consequent encouragement is just above that
371 01:05:26,639 --> 01:05:33,089 that's not reasonable. If he's going to run there, it's going to run a bit higher. So it means it's going to go above this. So what's above that volume
372 01:05:33,089 --> 01:05:49,859 imbalance. Bam, hits it. Failure, you're thinking bull flag, you're thinking it's going to continue higher. It's not only thing it's done is reverted back to
373 01:05:49,949 --> 01:06:03,719 that weekly opening gap. And it's broken above it here to do two things. Take out the stops here never trailed for shorts, and induce new buyers that think of
374 01:06:03,719 --> 01:06:11,639 that opening gap as a breakout. So now we've done what we went below it. So now if we can get back above that opening gap for the week, large funds will come in
375 01:06:11,639 --> 01:06:25,319 and they'll buy that. So they're doing what buying on a stop. They're buying with the expectation is going to continue higher. All the way that down into
376 01:06:25,319 --> 01:06:36,389 here, cleaning up all this inefficiency. We have sellside below here, here here and stacked heavily at the am session low. Small little fair value gap in here.
377 01:06:37,259 --> 01:06:49,469 mean between the high and the low. So the middle part of that is a consequent encroachment level. Trade right up into it here. Beautiful delivery for a gap
378 01:06:49,979 --> 01:06:59,489 high to low, we're gonna premium think about that. Dividing of the range from this high to that low as it's retracing. We're going to deep retracement, I
379 01:06:59,489 --> 01:07:06,749 don't need an indicator of something that's a result Do you do you need to plot our Fibonacci on this high that low to see that we're not already in a premium
380 01:07:07,589 --> 01:07:15,479 Your eyes have been trained to abide now. So the only thing you're using Fibonacci for is to find out the exact price for the mean threshold of order
381 01:07:15,479 --> 01:07:26,339 block or consequent quotient of an imbalance or project targets. That's the only reason why I touch a Fibonacci. That's the only reason why this is optimal trade
382 01:07:26,339 --> 01:07:38,579 entry. This is ote that's the flagship pattern of my channel until I guess the 2022 model was given to you last year, the market breaks down below 4140 and a
383 01:07:38,579 --> 01:07:55,409 quarter comes back up hits it fills in a bit of a gap there, breaks lower, small little imbalance here. Incidentally, this is your home Mark also this wick right
384 01:07:55,409 --> 01:08:04,499 here and we're looking at a one minute chart. So this wick right here between 415 and 430 that wick find out what that consequent encouragement level is on
385 01:08:04,499 --> 01:08:14,069 that the midpoint of that wick extended through this fair value gap and you'll get the very tick high of this candle right before it drops down. Yep, that's
386 01:08:14,069 --> 01:08:24,719 one of my favorite pet entries. I love that one. I love it and it'll serve you well when you know what you're looking for. Don't take my word for it go in and
387 01:08:24,719 --> 01:08:34,379 look at your chart and you'll see it it's perfect it's a perfect to the tick delivery on that candle and then suddenly it delivers those lower trades back up
388 01:08:34,379 --> 01:08:47,279 into old order flow here. One more time. What do you see here 123 breaks lower what's below these relative equal lows sell side to the market went up here for
389 01:08:47,279 --> 01:08:48,059 buy stops
390 01:08:49,230 --> 01:08:58,680 then ran down below these lows that was engineered starts rallying someone's going to buy that they see this as a bull flag it rallies up oh it's going to
391 01:08:58,680 --> 01:09:06,030 break up it's going to trade up to here even if they don't think it's going to break out retail watching things okay this is resistance so hold it until it
392 01:09:06,030 --> 01:09:12,600 gets to that level because it's our target they're not thinking trade up and through it they're thinking it's going to go back up here it's got room to still
393 01:09:12,600 --> 01:09:24,300 rally no it doesn't we're stalling here turning then attacking the sell side that was engineered with these runs higher. Buyers are gonna have their cell
394 01:09:24,300 --> 01:09:32,490 stop below that which is convenient for the smart money that selling to the old buy stops here. They have a net short position. Smart money's net short here.
395 01:09:32,730 --> 01:09:43,800 They add here they take some off here rallies back up fills in an inefficiency. This high here false just one tick short of constant encouragement here. Don't
396 01:09:43,800 --> 01:09:51,060 take my word for it. Go into your charts and you'll see it trades below these relative equal lows. What's below that sell stocks. Why? Because the market
397 01:09:51,060 --> 01:09:56,760 rallied up somebody's gonna chase it. They'll chase it and buy it up here and put their stop loss down here. You don't think they can do that or think they
398 01:09:56,760 --> 01:10:04,890 won't do that. Look at social media they're doing all the time. market drops attacks the sell side here. That's a partial and in bang, great blow the morning
399 01:10:04,890 --> 01:10:21,810 session well. Smart Money sells short, adds to shorts, takes partials, adds the shorts, covers at Terminus, a little more in session though. And then and only
400 01:10:21,810 --> 01:10:39,000 then the market goes back into sloppy chopping is getting ready for another day of the slaughterhouse on Thursday. So this year, I've talked about a number of
401 01:10:39,000 --> 01:10:51,000 things repetitively. And I've said certain things about the opening gap. And I said, to extend that through the entirety of the week, as long as we keep coming
402 01:10:51,000 --> 01:11:03,390 back to it, and we're not moving decisively away. We're not in a trending model. We have to trade short term price fluctuations and look at myself, liquidity,
403 01:11:03,420 --> 01:11:14,220 salsa, liquidity, inefficiencies, and be nimble, take ourselves, get them and get out. Don't fall in love. Don't marry the vein. Don't go in thinking, Oh,
404 01:11:14,220 --> 01:11:22,140 this is a short term trade intraday. But now it looks like it's really going to go higher. Let me hold on to it, because you will see it reverse on you. How do
405 01:11:22,140 --> 01:11:31,470 I know that? How do I know that you have to trade that guy? Because we keep coming back to that weekly gap opening? Think about it, folks. If this market
406 01:11:31,470 --> 01:11:45,240 was going to tear off, it would have done so. Right. And would it be coming back to this opening gap on Sunday? No way? Absolutely not. So use this insight going
407 01:11:45,240 --> 01:11:53,430 forward. I promise you it isn't me this using it when it works. Because I've already taught this and my students use it. It's something you trade with in
408 01:11:53,430 --> 01:12:02,040 perpetuity. You use it in the future all the time, because it's going to repeat. It's absolutely going to repeat look at the logic that I've already outlined
409 01:12:02,040 --> 01:12:15,240 before tonight. It's in this chart right here. It's doing exactly exactly what I codified exactly what I trained you to look for. This is exactly how it's coded.
410 01:12:16,860 --> 01:12:29,670 And it repeats every week, every day and it won't stop. So if you found this one insightful, and I don't know if I'll live stream tomorrow or Friday, but I will
411 01:12:29,670 --> 01:12:38,790 let you know by way of Twitter tomorrow how I feel if I feel like I'm going to have the energy to do it. Then I'll do it. If not, we'll do it on Friday. Okay,
412 01:12:38,790 --> 01:12:49,950 but I will certainly do it by Friday if not tomorrow. In the only way you know is on Twitter. Until next time, be safe