ICT YT - 2023-02-08 - Market Review - February 08 2023
Outline
00:26 - Daily and hourly charts -.
02:02 - Signs that you are in a consolidation.
07:40 - What would I like to see if we rally above this fair value gap?
13:17 - How do you know when you’re inside of a low resistance liquidity run signature within a market structure that’s predisposed to
15:08 - You have to be able to understand the market.
20:06 - Buy-sell liquidity pool and price action.
26:07 - How does one argue how all these things with buying and selling pressure work?
32:25 - When that stops when the ability for us to be able to see that and have that information in our hands is kept from us.
35:05 - The classic model for the New York session.
40:57 - How to use the PV array to map out a premium to discount market in a implied dealing range.
47:17 - What’s going on in the chart.
52:19 - What happens between 10am in New York and noon New York local time -.
55:04 - What’s lacking on the upside? -.
01:01:21 - Who’s making money right now?
01:08:15 - What you need to know about the current market.
Transcription
1 | 00:00:26,340 --> 00:00:38,190 | ICT: Good evening, folks. Sorry, I'm a little late today I've been wrestling what feels like it's a head cold, coming on to my friends out to dinner the |
2 | 00:00:38,190 --> 00:00:49,620 | other day, and he had a head cold. And I think he gave it to me. Thanks, Shawn. So take a look at this as their disclaimer, it's important you understand that |
3 | 00:00:49,620 --> 00:00:50,850 | there are risks involved. |
4 | 00:00:58,560 --> 00:01:12,600 | Alright, so, dollar index. And I promise won't keep you too long tonight. Let the inside chart that is the daily chart. And we're still inside this cell |
5 | 00:01:12,600 --> 00:01:25,590 | Senate bounced by sending efficiency here. And I'm not certain yet I'm not convinced that we're going to go higher yet. The reason why I'm concerned about |
6 | 00:01:25,590 --> 00:01:34,260 | it is we have this shade, the pink area is the same thing over here on the right hand side, this is an hourly chart of the same instrument. So it's the dollar |
7 | 00:01:34,260 --> 00:01:46,050 | index daily on the left, hourly on the right. This shaded area here on the daily is this shaded area here on the hourly chart, we have the new week opening gap, |
8 | 00:01:47,340 --> 00:01:59,730 | which is the abbreviation or NW OG. That's this area here from Friday's close to Sunday's opening, we always extend that range throughout the week, because they |
9 | 00:01:59,730 --> 00:02:09,930 | will act as a magnet, they'll draw price back to it. Unless it's a runaway freight train where it just keeps on going in a trending environment. You want |
10 | 00:02:09,930 --> 00:02:24,960 | to be aware of where that gap is relative to last Friday's close. And Sunday's opening price. Take that range divided in half. And you'll get the consequent |
11 | 00:02:24,960 --> 00:02:37,920 | encroachment which you won't be surprised I'm sure to see that's where all these bodies are resting. Okay. So it's not just the ES futures tactic it's |
12 | 00:02:38,130 --> 00:02:48,630 | algorithmic. So it's going to refer to these price levels, very specific, not supply and demand not anything else. It's just simple understanding of what is |
13 | 00:02:48,660 --> 00:03:00,060 | coded in price delivery is predetermined whether you like it or not, it is what it is. But you have to look for the signatures that repeat when you're not in a |
14 | 00:03:00,060 --> 00:03:10,230 | training environment. When you're in a training environment, maybe one time it'll touch it, and then off to the races, it'll go, you won't return back to |
15 | 00:03:10,230 --> 00:03:21,270 | it. One of the classic telltale signs that you are in a consolidation that's most likely going to continue is if we see price come back to it multiple times |
16 | 00:03:21,330 --> 00:03:34,950 | in a week. We're probably not near a near term price run of any significance yet. So you have to be very nimble and trade intraday, and but there's no reason |
17 | 00:03:34,950 --> 00:03:47,250 | for you to be fearful. Or thinking that Well, I want to I want to get a big run and forcing a trading environment is problematic. So you have to be aware of |
18 | 00:03:47,250 --> 00:03:57,420 | where that range is. Utilize it just like support and resistance, the way the books talk about support and resistance, treat that opening gap on a new week on |
19 | 00:03:57,420 --> 00:04:09,810 | Sunday, the highest high and the lowest love which is going to be representative of whichever is higher. The Friday's close or Sunday's opening. The other price |
20 | 00:04:09,810 --> 00:04:19,320 | is going to be the opposite. So it's it's either Friday's close is higher than the opening price on Sunday, or Friday's close is lower than Sunday's opening |
21 | 00:04:19,320 --> 00:04:26,790 | price. Okay, that's the only two things that can occur, then you divide that range of that gap in half. That's consequent encouragement, those three levels |
22 | 00:04:26,820 --> 00:04:42,330 | are highly, highly sensitive price will absolutely gravitate right back to those very specific price levels. And you'll see it again tonight to the tick and I |
23 | 00:04:42,330 --> 00:04:51,360 | propose these things to us that way you can wrestle with them on your own. You don't have to subscribe to the view that I hold. And you'd never convince me |
24 | 00:04:51,360 --> 00:05:00,570 | otherwise. Your fingerprints are all over it. But don't have to subscribe. The fact that the markets are delivered by an algorithm that If you want to |
25 | 00:05:00,570 --> 00:05:07,830 | subscribe to the idea that it's a free market, it's applied to me in a buying selling pressure, by all means, run with that, as long as you're using the |
26 | 00:05:07,830 --> 00:05:19,830 | concepts. without admitting to that view, the concepts will serve you well. Okay? It doesn't matter if you subscribe to that view or not. But looking at |
27 | 00:05:19,830 --> 00:05:31,590 | what we have here on the hourly chart on the right hand side, these are to to clean for me. And tomorrow's trading, because we traded up into the bottom end |
28 | 00:05:31,830 --> 00:05:42,240 | of that fair value got retail sees this is a bull flag on the daily chart, I know it's probably not zoomed in really tight. And I apologize, I was trying to |
29 | 00:05:42,240 --> 00:05:52,350 | get this to show up where I can do a presentation where I can show it bigger. But I'm a noob when it comes to live streaming, so it's a work in progress. So |
30 | 00:05:52,470 --> 00:06:00,540 | bear with me. You can get these ranges, obviously, by looking at the hourly chart and seeing where it's out here. And which is the encouragement I'm trying |
31 | 00:06:00,540 --> 00:06:06,840 | to provide for you. So don't just simply take my stuff and think well, I've done my analysis because it talked about now you got to go into the charts and do the |
32 | 00:06:06,840 --> 00:06:15,270 | work. annotate it that way you have the levels on your chart, when you watch it print real time, you'll see the sensitivity of these levels or the lack thereof. |
33 | 00:06:15,690 --> 00:06:27,570 | And that'll give you insight as well. So what I'm looking for for dollar is do we fail to go any higher than this? Should we start to break down? What would be |
34 | 00:06:27,570 --> 00:06:38,940 | a valid break down in my opinion, looking at the hourly chart, if we go below the lows here, if we go below these lows, there's really nothing down here that |
35 | 00:06:38,940 --> 00:06:47,760 | needs to be rebalanced, everything's overlap every candle. Next candle here, we trade down to that low this candle, we trade all the way back down into this |
36 | 00:06:47,760 --> 00:06:57,060 | candle run back higher this candle we trade back down and an overlap over into this candles high. So everything is back and forth. It's like a well painted |
37 | 00:06:57,090 --> 00:07:05,940 | wall. Okay, imagine you're a painter and you're taking the paint, applying it to the roller. Every time you roll that roller on the wall, it's distributing the |
38 | 00:07:05,940 --> 00:07:14,190 | paint, just like the price is being distributed to this chart here. And every time it goes up, it comes back down, make a chart leaves no gaps. So this is |
39 | 00:07:14,190 --> 00:07:25,260 | very efficiently delivered all the way up to here. And now here. The only areas of inefficiency that exist on this chart is a very, very small little separation |
40 | 00:07:25,260 --> 00:07:37,320 | between this candle here, down close candle and this candle here that low, very small. And because we have we have essentially, repriced back down into this |
41 | 00:07:37,320 --> 00:07:46,710 | candles high with this drop, or this opening here. And I don't know if we're going to run higher, because with all this, this is a wreck. Okay, I mean, this |
42 | 00:07:46,710 --> 00:08:02,670 | is a lot of just really difficult price action to work with. So in short, plain terms, I'm requiring the market to show me a lot more right now. Whereas I can |
43 | 00:08:02,670 --> 00:08:13,350 | argue that, okay, the daily chart, we've had very strong momentum on the upside, this is reasonable to expect a pause, or a slowdown because of the fair value |
44 | 00:08:13,350 --> 00:08:22,080 | gap. But if it's really bullish, if it does rally above the fair value gap, my eye goes right to here. Okay, that buyside liquidity pool, which was an old |
45 | 00:08:22,440 --> 00:08:35,370 | volume imbalance, now, turn potentially a bicycle repo. So if we start to run higher analogy we get above here. What would I like to see if we rally that plan |
46 | 00:08:35,370 --> 00:08:46,380 | a not Plan B, I'm telling you what I'm looking for, because I have no hard line bias going into tomorrow. Because I can argue both sides of the equation here. I |
47 | 00:08:46,380 --> 00:08:55,500 | can make an argument that here's what I would look for, for a bullish run. This is what I look for, for a bearish run. If my analysis is ever liked that in my, |
48 | 00:08:55,710 --> 00:09:07,110 | my teachings, and my students know this as a hallmark to me, I'm usually a one way street. Okay, and I, this is what I'm looking for. And that's it. But the |
49 | 00:09:07,110 --> 00:09:16,110 | time if you're wanting to be mentored by me, my transparency is always when I don't know, I'm going to tell you I don't know. And there's nothing wrong with |
50 | 00:09:16,110 --> 00:09:25,590 | admitting when you don't know. Students generally look at me. And they think that I'm always going to know every thing that's going to occur next, there's |
51 | 00:09:25,590 --> 00:09:34,950 | sometimes I don't know. And don't try to pressure yourself into that expectation, or hold that expectation over yourself. Because it's unrealistic. |
52 | 00:09:35,040 --> 00:09:42,300 | It's unhealthy, you're not going to be able to sustain it, you're not going to deliver on it. I can't even deliver on that. So the point is, when the markets |
53 | 00:09:42,300 --> 00:09:51,600 | communicating in decisiveness, I don't know what the algorithm is going to reprice to if it's going to go higher. How would I like to see price if it's |
54 | 00:09:51,600 --> 00:09:59,430 | going to go higher? Let me go through that first. If we press through overnight or going to tomorrow, and we get above this fair value gap because all of this |
55 | 00:09:59,430 --> 00:10:08,040 | is back in forth except for this small little area here where we learned one candle come on reprice to the low on this bearish order block. If we rally above |
56 | 00:10:08,040 --> 00:10:18,660 | this fair value get in it comes down and touches this as support preferably before taking out this high, then I would feel comfortable that it's going to |
57 | 00:10:18,690 --> 00:10:27,000 | probably run up into the midpoint or mean threshold of this up close candle here on the daily chart, I'll leave that homework for you to determine what that |
58 | 00:10:27,000 --> 00:10:37,560 | price level is. And it would have to get through that level before I even consider here. So if it's bullish, the draw and liquidity would be mean |
59 | 00:10:37,560 --> 00:10:42,210 | threshold of the bullish candle on your daily chart. |
60 | 00:10:44,070 --> 00:10:55,440 | And in the Buy Sell liquidity pool here. Now, this is where the argument is, for me, with the internal dialogue of looking for bullish or bearish because I can |
61 | 00:10:55,440 --> 00:11:06,690 | frame both sides, we have left relative equal lows, what I would have rather seen today is if we would have came through these lows here, and then delivered |
62 | 00:11:06,690 --> 00:11:19,200 | this, then I would trust the fact that we would probably be seeing higher prices in dollar and continued weakness in foreign currencies and or stock indices. But |
63 | 00:11:19,200 --> 00:11:27,570 | because we have left both of them, it gives me peace of mind, it rests on my hands and say, I don't need to do anything right now. That's a very important |
64 | 00:11:27,570 --> 00:11:36,300 | lesson for developing students, because it's always this tendency to want to do something, to want to push the button to trade, see what happens when I push the |
65 | 00:11:36,300 --> 00:11:46,170 | button, I want to I'm gonna see what happens. Well, in this instance, if you were to do that right now, in my opinion, in my opinion, is just that it's just |
66 | 00:11:46,170 --> 00:11:58,410 | an opinion, you will be gambling, because there's nothing hardline in terms of high probability for it to go higher or go lower, because we bumped up and look |
67 | 00:11:58,410 --> 00:12:07,680 | at the bodies respecting the low end of that range. That's the fair pay gap on the daily chart. And that's a higher timeframe daily range. Also note that this |
68 | 00:12:07,680 --> 00:12:18,390 | right here, this low, between this high and this high, that's a bearish breaker. These two down close candles together, it's all one for the hourly chart. And |
69 | 00:12:18,390 --> 00:12:27,000 | that's that range from this candle. And this lower candle here, the two down light candles on your chart, I didn't add it here because I don't want all the |
70 | 00:12:27,000 --> 00:12:38,340 | business on my chart, you can do this on your own. Take a rectangle. Later on top of these two down close candles, these black candles for my chart. And then |
71 | 00:12:38,400 --> 00:12:49,950 | to the right, and you'll see we have traded up into that. So if we break lower, come back up and touch the small little fair backup in here, I would treat that |
72 | 00:12:50,160 --> 00:12:59,250 | that would be enough for me to look for potential weakness going down into this low here. If we take out this low, then I think we're really going to run for |
73 | 00:12:59,700 --> 00:13:08,490 | the sell side below here. That does not mean that the dollar is going to collapse and go lower and go into 101 or something to that effect. It just means |
74 | 00:13:08,490 --> 00:13:18,090 | that I would look for this intraday tomorrow, which is really the Climate War market profile that we're in right now because it's indecisive. One could argue |
75 | 00:13:18,090 --> 00:13:28,530 | either case, and neither one of them being high probability. So you're basically gambling. And you're, you don't have anything behind it except for you would |
76 | 00:13:28,530 --> 00:13:36,690 | want this to occur, versus what's the market really showing you. Because if my concepts are there, and it's high probability, it's going to be next to |
77 | 00:13:36,690 --> 00:13:46,950 | impossible to argue the other side of the equation. In other words, if I'm bearish, I see no way whatsoever for a bullish scenario. So that means I'm high |
78 | 00:13:46,950 --> 00:14:00,000 | probability, low resistance liquidity run, going short. If I'm bullish, I see no opportunity for a shorting opportunity for me with my concepts than I am in high |
79 | 00:14:00,000 --> 00:14:12,180 | probability long. And what the expectations are low resistance, liquidity run, low resistance, liquidity run signatures are going to be easily identified when |
80 | 00:14:12,180 --> 00:14:21,480 | the markets one sided. And don't think that it's always a trending market, Michael, that's the only one that you trade. And no. Today I did an example of |
81 | 00:14:21,480 --> 00:14:32,700 | it. Today, I tweeted out and you'll see I'll go over. But it doesn't need to necessarily be in a existing trending market. It's when I'm looking for the |
82 | 00:14:32,700 --> 00:14:42,810 | liquidity once it's obvious, and you'll I'll show those signatures tonight when es once they're there, it's next to impossible to argue the other side of it, |
83 | 00:14:42,870 --> 00:14:50,790 | and that's why I have strong conviction. And it's the question I get a lot how do I know how do I trust? When do I know it's going to do these low resistance |
84 | 00:14:50,790 --> 00:14:56,970 | liquid around signatures? When is it going to run real fast? How do you know when you're imitating the chart? When you Tweet us? It's going to do this it's |
85 | 00:14:56,970 --> 00:15:06,420 | going to do that? How do you know that? It's because I I'm inside of a low resistance, liquidity run signature within a market structure that's predisposed |
86 | 00:15:06,420 --> 00:15:17,760 | to go in the direction I'm trading in. Everything is heavy handed on my favor, not against me. And there's certain things in the market and price action that |
87 | 00:15:17,760 --> 00:15:26,970 | will deliver that understanding to you. But you have to do this for a number of months and weeks and, and see it, and it will start communicating by experience, |
88 | 00:15:26,970 --> 00:15:34,740 | you can't just simply listen to me talk about it, I can't give you a chart and point to this is what it is. So therefore, now you understand it needs to be |
89 | 00:15:34,740 --> 00:15:42,870 | experienced, it's something that you forge, through experience daily doing it and seeing it, that's the only way you're going to get that skill set, which is |
90 | 00:15:42,870 --> 00:15:53,640 | why the failed students in my community that either are here failing, or have left and complained, they don't want to wrestle with this, they wanted to easy |
91 | 00:15:53,640 --> 00:16:01,200 | 123, you know, this is all you got to do. And it's easy all the time. Well, it's like that when you can identify the lower just in the corner and signature. It |
92 | 00:16:01,200 --> 00:16:13,530 | is just like that. But the problem is the market doesn't always deliver those conditions. And you have to identify what that is navigate it. Who were stay out |
93 | 00:16:13,530 --> 00:16:24,210 | of it. And I teach my students don't try to trade in high resistance liquidity runs, you saw the, the way the market was holding it back. The other day, when |
94 | 00:16:24,210 --> 00:16:38,190 | we were calling it on. The day the Fed chair was trying, Jawbone or whatever it was holding it down, it was consolidating. And then finally, it went to where I |
95 | 00:16:38,190 --> 00:16:49,740 | said it was going to go, but not easily, it was met with a lot of resistance. And it keeps you feeling impatient. While waiting for the trader to develop and |
96 | 00:16:49,740 --> 00:17:00,390 | pan out versus today as we'll go over, where it's like, okay, Johnny on the spot ICT comes in, it's going down to 4160. And bang, it just a few candles, it's |
97 | 00:17:00,390 --> 00:17:08,910 | handed to you on a silver platter. That's what I try to teach my students and look for those immediate instant gratification setups where you're not wrestling |
98 | 00:17:08,910 --> 00:17:14,520 | around, it doesn't give you that much time to be worrying about whether you're on site or off site, it means you're either on the right side of the trade or |
99 | 00:17:14,550 --> 00:17:24,090 | not on the right side of the trade. If you start getting in trades, and it's not moving for you, within a reasonable amount of time, what's a reasonable return, |
100 | 00:17:24,780 --> 00:17:34,440 | I don't know, it's gonna be relative to you, and your personal appetite for patients or the lack thereof. Because a setup is a setup, and I don't know what |
101 | 00:17:34,440 --> 00:17:42,690 | timeframe you're trading on. But if you're using a one minute chart, you want to be seeing some movement within 10 minutes of your entry minimum, okay, that |
102 | 00:17:42,690 --> 00:17:50,370 | you've got to see something showing you, if you're in there for 10 minutes, and it's not performing for you, then you're probably not on the right side or you |
103 | 00:17:50,370 --> 00:18:00,690 | enter too early, or you're absolutely just completely wrong. And there's a lot of things that are beneficial to me as a teacher using these one minute charts |
104 | 00:18:00,690 --> 00:18:09,780 | because it gives you lots of practice, and also gives you instant feedback. Whereas if I tried to teach on a daily chart, it would not be as effective. But |
105 | 00:18:09,780 --> 00:18:19,440 | the same logic would be utilized on that daily chart. So I don't know what we're going to do with dollar, I don't know that how that is going to impact the stock |
106 | 00:18:19,440 --> 00:18:27,450 | market and I don't know how it's going to impact Forex. So that's what we're going through. That way you know you can sleep soundly tonight I don't think |
107 | 00:18:27,450 --> 00:18:34,860 | it's going to be a big explosive move that I need to be worrying about because I can't see it yet. It's not there yet. Okay, the cards are still being shuffled |
108 | 00:18:36,270 --> 00:18:45,150 | and obviously we'll see what happens in the morning all right Eurodollar on the left hand side is a daily chart as I mentioned, you know we went up into our |
109 | 00:18:45,750 --> 00:18:54,420 | city which is very very got hit that beautifully came back down into this box out of balance also inefficiency, this shaded area is this shape very on an |
110 | 00:18:54,420 --> 00:19:09,330 | hourly chart on the right hand side. Now look at what we have here we have this drop into this very very gap on the daily chart. So it goes down basically down |
111 | 00:19:09,330 --> 00:19:20,220 | into consequent encouragement about midpoint of it and then we have this really nice run trades up to bearish order block by sides taken trades up and then |
112 | 00:19:20,220 --> 00:19:31,080 | rejected immediately comes back down into an order block so well here then we rally and then we sloppily just increase and then run one more time up into this |
113 | 00:19:31,080 --> 00:19:38,880 | but leaves the high intact and then we just fall off today. And now we're the resting rate on top that same fair value get that's over here on the daily chart |
114 | 00:19:38,880 --> 00:19:45,990 | which is this up close candle and I'll leave that for you should already have in your chart based on the analysis and the charting I already did for you on |
115 | 00:19:45,990 --> 00:19:59,970 | YouTube the other day. Now everything I mentioned for dollar, just reverse it. Okay, everything I mentioned for dollar, apply it here but in reverse order |
116 | 00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:04,410 | because everything is inversely correlated. |
117 | 00:20:06,360 --> 00:20:14,430 | I like the fact that there's a Buy Sell liquidity pool here. I like the fact that we're sitting at the fair value gap again, I like the fact that we've had |
118 | 00:20:14,460 --> 00:20:24,090 | all of this back and forth price action in here. And we moved higher and left that there. And we dropped today. To me, it feels. And this is just me, |
119 | 00:20:24,420 --> 00:20:32,640 | speculating right now, it's not me forecasting. I'm not cosigning because for me to say that would be indicating that I have an opinion or bias already for |
120 | 00:20:32,640 --> 00:20:43,140 | dollar, and I don't. But I like that the market is sitting at this level. And we have all this rejection in here. And it just looks too obvious, in my opinion, |
121 | 00:20:43,440 --> 00:20:53,550 | that they left this here. So does that mean that the Euro dollar is going to rally up in dollars going to go lower? Well, if it goes here for Euro, then yes, |
122 | 00:20:53,550 --> 00:21:02,010 | the dollar index would drop. But I don't know that yet. And there's nothing in here that would get me excited to take a trade, I wouldn't be able to do |
123 | 00:21:02,010 --> 00:21:13,080 | anything. So I'd have to wait and see what we get tomorrow. What do we see at 830? In New York time, what do we get 930 is opening. So it's a matter of wait |
124 | 00:21:13,080 --> 00:21:22,440 | and see. Versus when there's other instances where the market is really given me clear indications about what it's likely to do. I'll talk to you about and I'll |
125 | 00:21:22,440 --> 00:21:28,860 | say this is what I think it's going to do. And there it is. And it'll be one sided, there won't be the both side of the equation. But I'm telling you the |
126 | 00:21:28,860 --> 00:21:37,890 | things I'm looking for, if you're watching price action, and you see something that you know has been taught to you that would expect to see delivery to that |
127 | 00:21:37,890 --> 00:21:46,560 | level, whether it be going lower or going higher. You'll know what I'd be looking for if I was there with you at the time saying okay, what do you think |
128 | 00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:56,550 | it's going to go to ICTU, I think the draw would be here. So I'm giving you both sides, only in those instances where I don't have a bias that's determined. So I |
129 | 00:21:56,550 --> 00:22:06,510 | give you both sides. That way you can study it. And you can also beat me to my analysis and or my review. So that way, you can compare and contrast what I show |
130 | 00:22:06,510 --> 00:22:14,910 | in the next video review versus what you already have in your annotation. So it waits interactive, it allows you to be progressive, about learning, not just |
131 | 00:22:14,910 --> 00:22:24,000 | simply listening to ICT. And hear me talk about the things I'm talking about. It allows you to go in let your eye and your attention go to where you'd like |
132 | 00:22:25,260 --> 00:22:33,450 | within price action, things that you want to see as a signature for your model. So it allows you to develop organically, not me try to shove you into a mold, |
133 | 00:22:33,630 --> 00:22:47,250 | which won't work. So we're indecisive right now for Euro, just like dollar or E Mini s&p. I mentioned that we had the buy sell equity pool, here we go or so. |
134 | 00:22:47,310 --> 00:22:58,710 | And we ran up into that obviously, we have a volume imbalance here, and we have a volume imbalance in here ran up failed to go above the high. Today we had a |
135 | 00:22:58,710 --> 00:23:10,140 | little bit of a give back. These two volume imbalances, why don't have them noted. You want to have them both annotated on your daily chart and extend them |
136 | 00:23:10,140 --> 00:23:21,900 | through price action for Thursday and Friday's trading. Because those levels may be impactful. And you don't want to just do it like one big bulk area, don't use |
137 | 00:23:21,900 --> 00:23:31,350 | the highest high and the lowest low of the volume bounces, you collectively do them individually. And then label them respectively in your chart that way, when |
138 | 00:23:31,350 --> 00:23:41,940 | you watch price action if it responds to those levels, and I'll explain what that means what it would look like. They're going to behave just like the new |
139 | 00:23:41,940 --> 00:23:53,040 | week opening gap, which is what's being shown here on the hourly chart. So the s&p hourly chart, Friday's close. That's what this level is here. And then |
140 | 00:23:53,040 --> 00:24:10,590 | Sunday's opening. Down here hear actually, I just realized I have that one and all we tried on here that's not accurate. In that should be on different level. |
141 | 00:24:11,460 --> 00:24:20,310 | The Friday closing price and Sunday's opening price, make sure that's on your chart. Then whenever that range is every new week, and you do the same thing |
142 | 00:24:20,370 --> 00:24:31,860 | every time there's a gap opening. So when we close our session at 5pm Each day, Monday through Friday, or not Friday, but Monday through Thursday. When we open |
143 | 00:24:31,860 --> 00:24:40,650 | again at six o'clock when there's that one hour gap of new trading, you want to do the same thing I'm teaching you to do with the new week opening gap, use the |
144 | 00:24:40,650 --> 00:24:52,860 | closing price and then the new opening price at six o'clock and then that that range, divide that in half and extend that throughout the next 12 to 16 hours. |
145 | 00:24:53,460 --> 00:25:08,550 | And that right there will also act much like you see with the new week opening gap So we have our HR here, what was kind of wild today really a lot of |
146 | 00:25:08,550 --> 00:25:17,610 | uncertainty in the beginning of the day, it was a, it was a mess. I wasn't feeling well on top of it. And I just didn't, I didn't like what I was seeing. |
147 | 00:25:17,940 --> 00:25:26,850 | And I was able to look at a couple of different little small moves and such. But it wasn't until later on in the day where I felt very strong conviction about |
148 | 00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:35,670 | what it is I was looking for. And I'll explain that now and go into the lower timeframes on the left hand side is our 15 minute timeframe. Here's a homework |
149 | 00:25:35,670 --> 00:25:54,660 | assignment. On your 15 minute chart on ES. This high, you want to put your Fibonacci on the closing price, and the high and get the 50% level, then take it |
150 | 00:25:54,750 --> 00:26:09,060 | fail and place it on the 50% level down to the close. That new 50% level is 25% of this wick. That's what this level is here. Go down to your lower timeframes. |
151 | 00:26:09,060 --> 00:26:18,960 | And you'll see much like you see over here, look how price is sensitive to that. It's that level trades down. Now, how is that useful? Why is it even useful? |
152 | 00:26:18,990 --> 00:26:26,160 | Because I'm sure some of you are thinking, well, that's cherry picked. If you think that the market is bearish, and you're going to come to these conclusions |
153 | 00:26:26,160 --> 00:26:35,160 | in your own analysis in your own good time. If you think the market is not likely to go through an old high that has a big long wick like that, if it's |
154 | 00:26:35,160 --> 00:26:45,720 | extremely challenging for it to go higher, it will not likely do what tray the consequent encouragement, which is the midpoint of the gap. So if it's not going |
155 | 00:26:45,720 --> 00:26:55,620 | to go there, where could it go? I don't do things in zones, okay, I don't just go out there and say, well, here's a big area where you know, if it goes there |
156 | 00:26:55,620 --> 00:27:04,200 | and turns around, I can come back and say, look how smart I was. Okay, I give you very specific levels, because that's exactly what the algorithms gonna do. |
157 | 00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:15,420 | If there is no algorithm, then there would be what randomness. But the argument is, there's all this buying and selling pressure that always completely delivers |
158 | 00:27:16,140 --> 00:27:25,560 | precision when you're looking for it with the lenses that I'm providing you, if you look for the algorithm with the signatures as the footprints to look for, |
159 | 00:27:26,070 --> 00:27:35,550 | and you'll see Debian evidence is all over it. But if you go in with the argument that there is no art, there is an algorithm. It's buying song pressure, |
160 | 00:27:35,850 --> 00:27:47,760 | it's all completely random. And, you know, retail things in Oregon organized, usually usage of a indicator based strategy, that's the real reason why price is |
161 | 00:27:47,760 --> 00:27:58,110 | going up, then you'll see what you want to say, because you're going in looking for what you want to see. But strip it away and say, Okay, if there is control, |
162 | 00:27:59,100 --> 00:28:11,550 | if there is a management function behind price, and how, where and how and when it goes where it's supposed to go. How is it possible? Because this, I mean, I |
163 | 00:28:11,550 --> 00:28:23,340 | already know there's an algorithm when you're when you're talking to it. So if you're on the fence about it, then how does one argue how all these things with |
164 | 00:28:23,340 --> 00:28:34,020 | buying and selling pressure? And, you know, all these theories and approaches to trading? How is it that price stops and turns on a dime, and goes to the levels |
165 | 00:28:34,020 --> 00:28:44,460 | that I'm outlining beforehand? And that logic repeats itself over and over again? And it makes perfect sense. It makes perfect sense when you look at it |
166 | 00:28:44,460 --> 00:28:55,860 | that way. I can't be convinced. No one could convince me. Like, if I didn't know it for a fact, no one would be able to convince me after seeing this, like this, |
167 | 00:28:56,580 --> 00:29:08,850 | that there's something behind it all. There's something controlling the ebb and flow. It feels like it's organic, it feels like it's, you know, it's a free |
168 | 00:29:08,850 --> 00:29:17,520 | market. Yes, the markets gonna fluctuate. There's all kinds of movement around there, it's fine. But the argument you see, and this is what's proposed all the |
169 | 00:29:17,520 --> 00:29:25,890 | time. All you have to do is look at the depth of market, look at the DOM, look at the level two data, you'll see the orders. That's what's going on. Those |
170 | 00:29:25,890 --> 00:29:36,600 | orders are spooked. They're not necessarily there just because you see them on there does not mean that that's exactly resting there. It can be there for a |
171 | 00:29:36,600 --> 00:29:48,030 | little while and then pulled. Don't think it can happen. Oh, there's people at Goldman Sachs that got fined for doing it. Oops. So |
172 | 00:29:49,470 --> 00:29:58,890 | that's a gimmick. You don't need that the market you don't need level two. Everything is in the chart. It's it's being told to you with the open high, low |
173 | 00:29:58,890 --> 00:30:10,680 | and close by Those three that I'm sorry, there's four price levels removed the idea of a free market. Because when you study price based with time, certain |
174 | 00:30:10,710 --> 00:30:22,740 | times of the day, the market will do certain things. But you're told over time and indoctrination that buyers are controlling the market higher and sellers are |
175 | 00:30:22,740 --> 00:30:29,910 | controlling the market lower Oh sellers are coming in. They're muscling the market. No, they're not. Buyers are coming in. They're muscling the market. No, |
176 | 00:30:29,910 --> 00:30:40,710 | they're not. You may be buying when prices going up, but you didn't push it their volume, we have a new high, but it's on low volume. That doesn't make any |
177 | 00:30:40,710 --> 00:30:50,790 | sense now does it? Here we have a higher high, look at this big old run up his his candle is huge. It's really big, it goes up and takes out a previous high. |
178 | 00:30:51,900 --> 00:31:02,580 | But it does sell on lower volume. And you're going to argue and say that it's buying pressure to hook it up there. How's it arguable that buying pressure was |
179 | 00:31:02,580 --> 00:31:13,680 | less than the previous time it rallied up here. But yet it outperformed it in magnitude and delivery. That's make believe. Okay, that's a fairy tale. But the |
180 | 00:31:13,680 --> 00:31:24,390 | big lie that's told over and over and over again, eventually is accepted. And it feels uncomfortable to wake up and see things aren't really like this anymore. |
181 | 00:31:26,160 --> 00:31:36,300 | There's something that has transitioned. So there's something different in these markets now. And they're highly efficiently delivered. And there's nothing to be |
182 | 00:31:36,300 --> 00:31:46,740 | afraid of you guys that are arguing about it all the time. You don't want to come to this team, there is no ICT team. Okay, you want to learn how to read |
183 | 00:31:46,740 --> 00:31:57,600 | price. That's it. So you want to do and when you identify the signatures that repeat, and there's a number of them that I'm going to teach new this year, you |
184 | 00:31:57,600 --> 00:32:09,330 | will see there's absolutely nothing to be fearful of, they're not going to stop it, it can't be stopped. As long as there's a market, it will repeat. And that's |
185 | 00:32:09,330 --> 00:32:22,680 | the wonderful thing. It can not be hidden from you. It can't be as long as there's going to be an open and close to a market. And the valuation that we can |
186 | 00:32:22,680 --> 00:32:32,100 | measure it at the highest high and the lowest low. When that stops. When the ability for us to be able to see that and have that information in our hands |
187 | 00:32:32,220 --> 00:32:41,700 | when that is kept from you, then and only then should you have something to worry about. Because as long as you have access to data, guess what you have |
188 | 00:32:41,730 --> 00:32:54,000 | everything you need. Because everything we're reading here is how we're going to fleece, the retail. We're looking at these moments where the market is likely to |
189 | 00:32:54,000 --> 00:33:12,630 | do damage or trick entice lower traders in, go up and engage a pool of liquidity for buyers. If it meets a criteria that fits a narrative. Why should it go up |
190 | 00:33:12,630 --> 00:33:23,940 | there? Well, if there is an entity that is collectively referred to as smart money, they will use that liquidity of an old high to get short and aim for what |
191 | 00:33:24,330 --> 00:33:36,720 | an old low or in an efficiency below market price. And then they will offset their short position at a discount price. While those discount prices are being |
192 | 00:33:36,720 --> 00:33:49,230 | viewed by retail traders as Oh, this is our stop loss because we're trying to be long. And their willingness to sell below an old low is ideal for smart money |
193 | 00:33:49,230 --> 00:33:57,930 | that wants to buy at a very low price. That's how they cover their short. So when you change your perspective, and you have that market efficiency paradigm |
194 | 00:33:58,440 --> 00:34:12,480 | shift in the awareness of how price is actually being being booked. Listen, it's not it's not something they want widely understood. That's why it's not taught. |
195 | 00:34:12,900 --> 00:34:21,420 | That's not that's why it's not shown and that's why you're gonna see resistance to it. Because there's a lot of people in this industry that don't want you to |
196 | 00:34:21,420 --> 00:34:35,940 | know what you're learning here. Too fucking bad because it's happening. So back to the s&p this quarter level of this entire wick that right there. You want to |
197 | 00:34:35,940 --> 00:34:45,180 | study that okay? And in your notes in your in your journal, like something's up in here in this area here. You want to write that when there is a heavy bearish |
198 | 00:34:45,210 --> 00:34:58,980 | stance on price. Consequent encroachment of a wick is likely not to be traded to if you suspect that is the case. You get the very specific price level one |
199 | 00:34:58,980 --> 00:35:08,730 | quarter of the wick Don't take my word for it go back through your charts and your jaw will drop. But with that said, the market trades below this short term |
200 | 00:35:08,730 --> 00:35:19,470 | low here breaks lower. Now we have the classic model 2022 that I taught last year on YouTube channel. Mark trades up into it sells off consolidates a little |
201 | 00:35:19,470 --> 00:35:30,150 | bit, we go into the New York session with relative equal highs here that's by side. Now here's one of the things that you also will feel uncomfortable about, |
202 | 00:35:30,150 --> 00:35:38,130 | you're going to look at certain candles that I'll refer to. And you're probably looking at this and saying, Well, why don't you use this old high here? Well, |
203 | 00:35:38,130 --> 00:35:45,960 | look what happened. We have a city here. So it's an unbalanced by some inefficiency, which is a fair value get by classification. But specifically, it |
204 | 00:35:45,960 --> 00:35:58,350 | is sellside, unbalanced by some inefficiency, the markets, repriced up into essentially what that entire range here, and then we left it. So what is this |
205 | 00:35:58,350 --> 00:36:08,130 | becoming a balanced price range. But we have to factor in time of day. So everything that's been shown here on the 15 minute timeframe go over here to the |
206 | 00:36:08,130 --> 00:36:21,090 | five minute chart, suddenly, things become more clear. Because you can see now here we have 123 times the market has provided what a smooth edge in your |
207 | 00:36:21,090 --> 00:36:34,410 | journal, you write smooth edges tend to be made jagged. So what happens is these smooth edges that look like resistance to a retail trader. So you're asking me, |
208 | 00:36:34,590 --> 00:36:41,640 | why am I not using this high here when I've already explained that? What I'm teaching you is once it's already done its work here. And then it creates a |
209 | 00:36:41,640 --> 00:36:52,440 | lower level of smooth relative equal highs to highs and I have three, what's the retail crowd going to think about that? Oh, that's strong resistance. So |
210 | 00:36:52,440 --> 00:37:01,410 | therefore, they can think what they can go short and put their stop loss, which is what kind of stop a buy stop. So they're going to try to go short. The market |
211 | 00:37:01,410 --> 00:37:13,140 | provides them the reason they want to go short. What's above here, buy stops. So the market does what it rallies up, fails to really bump through my tear. So |
212 | 00:37:13,140 --> 00:37:22,170 | what does this look like? That's a quadruple top? Man, we got to write a new chapter in the books now. Right? So they're thinking it's really, really strong |
213 | 00:37:22,200 --> 00:37:31,650 | resistance. They drop it down and drop it one more time to get the previous low here. Everybody's on board. Now they think it's going lower. And there was a |
214 | 00:37:31,650 --> 00:37:42,660 | market go run right back up, takes out all this myself liquidity. I was looking for this this morning. But I was fading in and out of sleep. Because I don't |
215 | 00:37:42,660 --> 00:37:50,400 | feel well. And I'm watching it and watching and all sudden I woke up from a daze. And I saw the volume imbalance sitting here on the chart. And it was |
216 | 00:37:50,670 --> 00:37:58,500 | coming back right up in terms. Let me please get this thing going. Because when you ever start Camtasia it doesn't just start right away recording, it makes you |
217 | 00:37:58,500 --> 00:38:05,520 | wait these three seconds or whatever. And it's like, Come on, man. Like you gotta wait for this thing to start up in the whole business. While I'm doing |
218 | 00:38:05,520 --> 00:38:11,370 | that. I'm trying to figure out okay, what I gotta say, when we're gonna say on the chart, I was like, I'm just gonna just enter it in and I'll annotate as I |
219 | 00:38:11,370 --> 00:38:25,620 | go. Well, because it has created this relative equal high here. And we ran up took that I mentioned this morning on Twitter that I said that you note 4160 |
220 | 00:38:26,430 --> 00:38:39,540 | which is the new week opening gap high. So that's the basically it's the Friday's closing price of last week on ES. So when we're up here, I'm thinking |
221 | 00:38:40,230 --> 00:38:54,420 | 4160 What's the narrative that gets us there? Well, whenever you see smooth edges like this, always, always expect that type of scenario and it runs off |
222 | 00:38:54,420 --> 00:39:04,200 | into it here. Once it does that. You're in a deep premium. The market participants are going to see that as well. That's a bullish breakout resistance |
223 | 00:39:04,200 --> 00:39:13,890 | is broken. There's buyers that have buy orders sitting there protecting a short position, but there's also traders is thinking okay, this is going down maybe |
224 | 00:39:13,890 --> 00:39:20,730 | all the divergences that may be occurring in your indicators which I don't need to see an indicator to know that they were diverging in here. bullishly market |
225 | 00:39:20,730 --> 00:39:26,460 | rallies up anything all right now I gotta have confirmation. What's the confirmation we have to see these levels here broken out because if it breaks |
226 | 00:39:26,460 --> 00:39:36,570 | out like that, then they're going to feel confident that they can go long. Wonderful. So you have buyers that want to break out and go long and you have |
227 | 00:39:36,570 --> 00:39:41,640 | buyers that want to protect the short, beautiful, that's a very, very |
228 | 00:39:43,560 --> 00:39:58,710 | well saturated area for buy side liquidity. Who would benefit from price just going up here just a little bit. Buyers ran out of steam here. Buyers ran up |
229 | 00:39:58,710 --> 00:40:05,880 | here buying pressure or took us up to here. And then all of a sudden, what buying pressure ran out? Why would why would it do that when there's a huge pool |
230 | 00:40:05,880 --> 00:40:16,680 | of liquidity resting right here of buy orders? Oops, oops, oh, we got a problem with that narrative. Now, retail just failed with that logic. It doesn't make |
231 | 00:40:16,680 --> 00:40:27,060 | any sense. You have a huge pool of liquidity here with real buyers. Why didn't that send it higher? Because it's designed to do that, it's only going to go out |
232 | 00:40:27,060 --> 00:40:37,770 | there and trigger those buy stops. So that way, smart money, the collective entity that does what I'm teaching you to do in price action, they're going to |
233 | 00:40:37,770 --> 00:40:50,190 | go in and gather up all that liquidity to be counterparty to, to go short, they're going to sell it to those buy stops, as the market runs right up in |
234 | 00:40:50,190 --> 00:41:00,810 | there. And when the algorithm prices it right there, that's when their orders come in, boom, boom, boom. Where's it go? The level I told you this morning on |
235 | 00:41:00,810 --> 00:41:16,050 | Twitter 4160. I'm sorry, 4146. So 4146, the closing price on Friday, that was a draw on liquidity, a lot of manipulation, a lot of just back and forth, back and |
236 | 00:41:16,050 --> 00:41:26,730 | forth. And once it cleared these relative equal highs, then it was off to the races, real quick, sudden decline. But now let's go into a lower timeframe chart |
237 | 00:41:26,730 --> 00:41:36,120 | and take a closer look at it. What will still stay on the five minutes right here. Here's that same zoomed in area where Basa liquidity is resting here, it |
238 | 00:41:36,120 --> 00:41:50,790 | only bumps up to right there like that. And once it hits, it doesn't spend a lot of time waiting around, no. market reaches lower. And while we're inside of this |
239 | 00:41:50,790 --> 00:42:08,160 | area here, we're still at a premium. So I'm going to show you how we can use the pdra matrix to map out a premium to discount market in a implied dealing range. |
240 | 00:42:09,060 --> 00:42:19,710 | This is the part where you take notes. Alright, so we're zoomed in, in that same area here. But now on a one minute chart. This is the PV array matrix. And the |
241 | 00:42:19,710 --> 00:42:32,130 | range I'm using here so that we can do it on your own charts not to simply take my chart and think you've done the work from this high, down to the 4146 even |
242 | 00:42:32,130 --> 00:42:38,550 | level now why am I referencing that because that's the target. I told you the price was going to go to today this morning on Twitter, it's going to return |
243 | 00:42:38,550 --> 00:42:49,020 | back to what the new week opening gap, it's gonna be like a magnet folks, it's going to want to draw back to that. Why? Because for the week, for the entire |
244 | 00:42:49,020 --> 00:42:58,560 | weekly candle for between the highest sign a low us low. If it's not a trending market, what's it going to do, it's going to treat the new week opening gap as |
245 | 00:42:58,560 --> 00:43:09,690 | fair value. And it's going to want to revert back to that continuously. And that allows for new sentiment to come in. Oh, it goes back to that that gap. Okay, a |
246 | 00:43:09,690 --> 00:43:19,920 | lot of lot of algorithms, not the algorithm, that's the price engine. But the algorithms that operate on the fun level, they will likely use that opening gap |
247 | 00:43:19,920 --> 00:43:28,110 | to constitute their new trade idea based on a new sentiment idea because it trades back to it. Much like I'm teaching you to view it as what support and |
248 | 00:43:28,110 --> 00:43:41,730 | resistance. So if it's up here, and I'm telling you all focus on 4146, because it's likely go back to that weekly gap that opens on Sunday. What's the nearest |
249 | 00:43:41,730 --> 00:43:53,760 | price above the gap, it's the Friday's closing price which is 4146. So if that's the level we're looking for price to go to. And we're above it. And we're |
250 | 00:43:53,760 --> 00:44:02,160 | looking for lower prices, we create a high here, it starts to pull back into go below the high here and the relatively equal highs that we've had now four |
251 | 00:44:02,160 --> 00:44:13,980 | times. Remember the slide before I wanted this one, four times it banged into that level, and then we hit it here and then started to sell off? Where are we |
252 | 00:44:13,980 --> 00:44:22,410 | at? When price is trading right here? Are we in the red area which would be considered premium relative to the high to the target where we're looking to |
253 | 00:44:22,410 --> 00:44:32,340 | trade? We're looking for the draw on liquidity, the terminus, where is it likely to go to remember that's the thing I'm teaching all I need to focus on. The part |
254 | 00:44:32,370 --> 00:44:44,040 | of this puzzle is not knowing where it's going to next. And you're focusing on all the order blocks and what very gaps and when that is staying open. You're |
255 | 00:44:44,040 --> 00:44:55,290 | missing the whole entire plot. You have to be trained this year use this time with me to understand how why I'm teaching you how I'm teaching you. Where is it |
256 | 00:44:55,290 --> 00:45:06,600 | likely to go to next because all that question of what you're looking for Why does this and shouldn't do that, that becomes much easier to figure out when you |
257 | 00:45:06,600 --> 00:45:14,280 | know what the market is likely to do. And also, if I don't know what I'm doing, I won't be right. Well, that means there's no algorithm that means there's no |
258 | 00:45:14,280 --> 00:45:22,920 | way that there's an algorithm if I'm calling specific price levels as the next round liquidity, and they don't continuously consistently deliver, guess what |
259 | 00:45:22,920 --> 00:45:34,170 | that tells you, there is no algorithm. And every friggin day, I'm telling you, I'm only tweeting the winds, I'm not believing anything. So come on, join the |
260 | 00:45:34,170 --> 00:45:41,790 | party here. Okay, this is the real, this is the real shit. Okay, I'm just gonna tell you like that this is the way it is. This is it. This is the thing you're |
261 | 00:45:41,790 --> 00:45:55,680 | looking for. But you can't, you cannot learn this with one video or video series, you have to be walking it with me. And you see it, and you'll understand |
262 | 00:45:55,680 --> 00:46:05,460 | it. And you'll understand what each candle means. Each time it creates a new one, it falls into place into a storyline, the storyline is they ran the buy |
263 | 00:46:05,460 --> 00:46:16,020 | stops above those highs ran right up in there. Broke lower, you already knew 4146 was where we were looking for the draw on liquidity. I guarantee when you |
264 | 00:46:16,020 --> 00:46:27,120 | were seeing this rally up here, you're like, Oh, I see T got it wrong. I'm not gloating on this telling you I see this happening. It's like I'm reading all of |
265 | 00:46:27,120 --> 00:46:39,480 | your minds with these candlesticks. When this thing starts to break down, and we have a target 4146 You need to take your high. If you're short, or if you're |
266 | 00:46:39,480 --> 00:46:49,950 | looking to be short, the high that forms that you think is a suspect highest suspect high is a high that's been blown out. And you want to see if it |
267 | 00:46:49,980 --> 00:47:07,080 | maintains the rejection. So we don't know if this high is going to be well taken out, if you will, until we trade from premium to discount, we have that right |
268 | 00:47:07,080 --> 00:47:20,520 | here in the market does what returns back up into a premium, I'm scrambling to get Camtasia open right here. Finally gets open, get my chart open. And then |
269 | 00:47:20,550 --> 00:47:31,890 | right here. what's occurring? Look closely, I've already shared it with the Twitter community and actually showed it execution. So I traded this not to |
270 | 00:47:31,890 --> 00:47:40,890 | simply me talking about in hindsight, so you can look at the video on YouTube. I'll take the annotations off in a second. But look what we have here we have |
271 | 00:47:40,890 --> 00:47:56,040 | the high 241 46 Even which is the Friday closing price, which is the high end the top of the new week opening gap with that price level as a magnet, if price |
272 | 00:47:56,040 --> 00:48:12,630 | is up here relative to that target, and the highest here. If we go short in here, we're shorting what at equilibrium, or premium. Either one is okay. But |
273 | 00:48:12,630 --> 00:48:23,820 | you can't go in and start pyramid thing once we get down into here. Because once we start crossing into the halfway point of the discount level, you're too much |
274 | 00:48:23,820 --> 00:48:32,520 | in a discount that add more to it, which is the reason why you see me do one and done. And there it is. Yeah, I got in, there was no opportunity for me to |
275 | 00:48:33,300 --> 00:48:45,180 | pyramid it was a straight shot. 4146 Thank you very much, wham bam, Thank you, ma'am. But let me take the annotations off and you can see pay no attention to |
276 | 00:48:45,180 --> 00:48:57,690 | the fact that that standard deviation one takes us down to that really nice low, but this is extra no charge. So here's the level that's equilibrium. Do you see |
277 | 00:48:57,690 --> 00:49:14,160 | the volume imbalance right here? I've been teaching it that volume imbalance is at equilibrium and then a very small premium. My entry was short instantly |
278 | 00:49:14,370 --> 00:49:24,210 | delivered this type of movement right here this that is exactly what a low resistance liquidity run signature performs like. |
279 | 00:49:25,830 --> 00:49:35,040 | Now, do you want to be in a move like that? Or do you want to be in a move like this buying down here hoping it gets to this level of here buying here riding |
280 | 00:49:35,070 --> 00:49:41,460 | rolls all the way down this deep against you rallies, okay, it's gonna give it to me. It's gonna give us a note we're rolls back against you. If you put your |
281 | 00:49:41,460 --> 00:49:50,490 | stop here, you're taken out. Then it rallies up here, but you've been taken out, but it went to your target. That still happens to me if I trade in high |
282 | 00:49:50,490 --> 00:49:58,950 | resistance liquidy around signatures. I can trade in them. But it doesn't give me peace of mind. I don't want to be in a trade that has this roller coaster. |
283 | 00:49:59,160 --> 00:50:06,720 | Back and forth. still gets to where I think it's gonna go. There's other days the trade where I will have that, which is how I teach my students to trade. |
284 | 00:50:07,020 --> 00:50:16,710 | When we get in, we're looking for very quick responsiveness in price, we want to see instant feedback, we want to see how price goes right to what we're looking |
285 | 00:50:16,710 --> 00:50:24,420 | for, we don't want to be messing around, we want to be sitting around worrying about twiddling our thumbs, hyperventilating, huffing, and puffing, cussing, |
286 | 00:50:25,350 --> 00:50:34,410 | cursing the market. I've been there, folks, I've put my fist through several monitors. Over my career, I've done it. I don't do that anymore. It's boring to |
287 | 00:50:34,410 --> 00:50:42,630 | me. If I got it wrong, I got it wrong, I'm not gonna lose my mind, do it. I know what I'm looking for. In the future, it will repeat. It just means I've done |
288 | 00:50:42,630 --> 00:50:51,690 | something incorrect. And I assume that responsibility as a trader, but you won't hear that in books, you're going to hear people say, push your edge. Don't worry |
289 | 00:50:51,690 --> 00:51:01,170 | about the drawdown, trade your way out of it, the everything that's wrong. That's what's promoted. And there is a logic to look for opportunities that |
290 | 00:51:01,170 --> 00:51:14,190 | deliver instantaneously, powerfully, energetically. And it repeats over and over and over again. Look closely. The volume imbalance here. Why am I even looking |
291 | 00:51:14,190 --> 00:51:23,040 | at that? Because of everything on this outline how fast we move from this high? It's not likely to do what come back up to any of this imbalance. It's showing |
292 | 00:51:23,040 --> 00:51:34,710 | us what volume imbalance here, a fair value got another fair agar, another volume imbalance that did what we traded up into it here with that little bit of |
293 | 00:51:34,710 --> 00:51:47,310 | a wick. And we went down into discount halfway between the high here and target of 4146. So I know some of you are thinking, Okay, this is really complicated |
294 | 00:51:47,310 --> 00:51:57,570 | ICT it's not, it's only because you're seeing explained to you for the first time. It gets easier as you see it with me, you start walking through it. And |
295 | 00:51:57,570 --> 00:52:06,510 | you'll see it's exactly what I'm utilizing. I'm not creating new things each time to keep you from ever learning it my whole time with you this year is for |
296 | 00:52:06,510 --> 00:52:17,100 | you to learn this, not hold my hand ICT, I don't want to hold anybody saying I got a wife. In its own hand, I'm trying to hold this return back into that |
297 | 00:52:17,100 --> 00:52:26,730 | volume imbalance right there. That's it. That's the last That's it. That's the last bus stop. And then we're out of here. Elvis left the building. And here we |
298 | 00:52:26,730 --> 00:52:37,920 | have it delivering right where I said it was gonna go when nobody else up here was expecting that price there. So the narrative was run the buy stops |
299 | 00:52:38,700 --> 00:52:54,030 | accumulate that is short position for smart money. So the composite man sell short to the buy stops and buys the sell side liquidity to cover the short and |
300 | 00:52:54,030 --> 00:53:01,320 | the market rallies up to some random level between this candles low in this candles high, which is consequent encouragement. That's exactly what you're |
301 | 00:53:01,320 --> 00:53:14,460 | seeing right here. The market trades lower. So the market trades down to midpoint rally, midpoint. Sloppy, sloppy, sloppy, sloppy. And then between 1050 |
302 | 00:53:14,520 --> 00:53:27,600 | and 1110. There's going to be a macro already know some of you are thinking okay, but you said 1052 1110. And then there's a 11. There's two of them. Okay. |
303 | 00:53:28,470 --> 00:53:41,940 | What did I teach you with Forex? What happens between 10am in New York local time to noon, New York local time. What time of day is that? That's one in |
304 | 00:53:41,940 --> 00:53:56,160 | close. That order flow that comes in at that time. You're going to have a macro that occurs at the 10 o'clock hour, and the 11 o'clock hour. Then at noon, |
305 | 00:53:56,190 --> 00:54:08,670 | between one and noon, noon o'clock, New York local time. There's an algorithm that runs there too, which returns us back to what the morning stops. There is a |
306 | 00:54:08,670 --> 00:54:16,320 | teaching coming, I want to make sure I have it in video format. Because I know some of you guys are writing books, to try to put it in print to beat nine books |
307 | 00:54:16,320 --> 00:54:23,310 | out there, but you're not going to be able to efficiently talk about it. You'll talk about something I've already done in a video. And then my video, I mean, my |
308 | 00:54:23,310 --> 00:54:30,510 | books will refer to videos that I've already put out in public. So that way everything's time date stamped and everybody knows where it came from. I'm |
309 | 00:54:30,510 --> 00:54:42,210 | sorry, I have to do it like that. But even this goobers out here to try to make a name for themselves. This is ridiculous. So between the 1050 and 1110 hour, |
310 | 00:54:42,810 --> 00:54:54,780 | there's a macro that will form that makes a run on liquidity that has not been taken yet. What does that look like? We have the market rally up and then breaks |
311 | 00:54:54,840 --> 00:55:06,930 | the short term low here relatively close. trades down and then Korea It's this very vague gap. It's a gap. Yes. But what kind of gap? Is it? Sibi si bi |
312 | 00:55:06,960 --> 00:55:16,080 | sellside imbalance by SATA inefficiencies. So what is it lacking delivery on the upside? So it overshoots it here, that's fine, no problem, small little gap |
313 | 00:55:16,080 --> 00:55:27,390 | here, if there's a gap like that your stop has to refer to that as well. Remember, if there's two fair value gaps, your stop has to at least respect that |
314 | 00:55:27,390 --> 00:55:36,900 | higher level Vega Well, it means is larger stuff, that means you're using less leverage. Okay, stop trying to be at the highest form of leverage, just because |
315 | 00:55:36,900 --> 00:55:45,570 | your funded account says you can trade 15 contract doesn't mean go in trading 15 contracts, believe me, they want you to fail, they make money doing that. Okay. |
316 | 00:55:45,630 --> 00:55:51,180 | And, again, that's the reason why I'm not gonna have a relationship with any of them, they can beg me to sign up with them all they want, I'm not going to do it |
317 | 00:55:51,660 --> 00:56:02,220 | to you have to do this responsibly. And there's a right way of doing it. And that means managing risk, not managing the potential to make the most and use |
318 | 00:56:02,220 --> 00:56:11,910 | the most leverage. That's what you're trained to do. Every influencer out there is telling you to do that, push it, push it, stack your funded accounts, get 20 |
319 | 00:56:11,910 --> 00:56:22,200 | accounts, yeah, get 20 of them. Because when you blow all 20 of them, that means you're gonna have to do what 20 reps. They want that they absolutely want it. |
320 | 00:56:22,290 --> 00:56:31,860 | Because they know greed is going to tap you on the shoulder. You may conquer fear for a little while. But greed is going to be like, Hey, man, listen, it's |
321 | 00:56:31,860 --> 00:56:42,960 | real easy to restart these things. So just risk it, you want the biscuit, you gotta risk it, and then you shut the bid. Well, they get 20, new restarts, bang, |
322 | 00:56:43,410 --> 00:56:50,880 | just like that, because they know you're not going to stop, you're gonna do it. So when you have two fair value gaps, your stop loss has to respect that. And |
323 | 00:56:50,880 --> 00:56:58,680 | that means you have to do what use less leverage. It's about making money. It's not about showing on social media, I'm trading with 15 contracts, because that's |
324 | 00:56:58,680 --> 00:57:09,450 | the $150,000 account. Limitation I can trade with. I'm doing full leverage my lot sizes, we're talking about male genitalia measuring up again, that's not |
325 | 00:57:09,450 --> 00:57:19,320 | what this isn't. It's not about that. It's about consistently managing risk. Impeccably, being precise about what you're doing, when you're doing it, why |
326 | 00:57:19,320 --> 00:57:28,380 | you're doing it, taking partials along the way, because you don't know if your targets are gonna get hit, I can hold for full terminus, I can do that. But if I |
327 | 00:57:28,380 --> 00:57:36,270 | demonstrate that all the time, you're going to be wondering, I can't do that. And you're gonna fail more times trying to do that versus learning to take |
328 | 00:57:36,270 --> 00:57:45,090 | partials. Giving yourself that green belt, that blue belt, that red belt brown belt before you get to your black belt, which is holding trades to Terminus, I |
329 | 00:57:45,090 --> 00:57:57,240 | can do that. I'm gonna do 100 handles up now you've seen it. But I teach, gradually take small bites of that elephant, and you'll devour it. But it takes |
330 | 00:57:57,240 --> 00:58:07,350 | time. And it takes discipline to do these things over and over again, being content with enough, you've done enough to learn this much this week, this much |
331 | 00:58:07,440 --> 00:58:20,070 | that month, over the last three months, where have you gone? What's your progress like? So back to the macro. Remember, this was supposed to be real |
332 | 00:58:20,070 --> 00:58:30,060 | short video never ends up like that, just like a Twitter space, you always get more than you paid for. So in this imbalance, I'm sorry, in this imbalance here. |
333 | 00:58:30,930 --> 00:58:41,220 | It rallies up into the small little fair value gap here. And then we have the move lower. We trade down to the low here, rally back to the midpoint break |
334 | 00:58:41,220 --> 00:58:48,990 | lower once more sell side. So every instance, of London close |
335 | 00:58:51,599 --> 00:59:02,699 | between the 10 o'clock hour and 11 o'clock hour in noon, there are several things that occur that are algorithmic, I'm going to give you specific details |
336 | 00:59:02,699 --> 00:59:12,359 | about what you're looking for, when it should form, what times and what days, is it not likely to form and disregard it. They're usually trending days, trending |
337 | 00:59:12,359 --> 00:59:21,539 | days, you're not gonna see a macro, it's just going to be like, boom, goodbye off to the races, and it's not gonna be anywhere seen. But how many times you |
338 | 00:59:21,539 --> 00:59:29,939 | see that in trading? It's not a lot. So most of the time, you're gonna see certain little quirky things that repeat, and you can trade with them, you're |
339 | 00:59:29,939 --> 00:59:44,459 | gonna find that they themselves can be your entire trading model. So what does that mean? You can schedule your business down to a 20 minute window. Why? Yes, |
340 | 00:59:44,879 --> 00:59:56,339 | yes, Dorothy, we are no longer in Kansas. Okay, we're in the wonderful land of us. So, the market comes back up fails, come back up in fall short of the |
341 | 00:59:56,339 --> 01:00:11,429 | closing price on Friday. And then B big surge lower. Trading down into the low that Fibonacci from the high down to 4146. Pretty much nailed that. And then we |
342 | 01:00:11,429 --> 01:00:21,989 | traded into some sloppy conditions going into the afternoon session. Now before I go on the next slide and close this discussion, if we know that the market has |
343 | 01:00:21,989 --> 01:00:39,479 | traded from the high here, lower. What is the lunch hour going to do? It's going to run on what? Buy stops. So buy stocks during the morning session? Where would |
344 | 01:00:39,479 --> 01:00:51,809 | they most likely be? Well, you have this here, but we haven't. We don't have a whole lot of interest in something so shallow like that. Also, what did I tell |
345 | 01:00:51,809 --> 01:01:03,959 | you to look for? Throughout the entirety of the week? If there's an opening gap on Sunday, you extend that through the entire week? So are we interested in just |
346 | 01:01:03,959 --> 01:01:19,859 | running these here know? What high is between the gap that's formed on Fridays close and Sundays opening? This high here? So 4146 that's the that's the Morning |
347 | 01:01:19,859 --> 01:01:28,949 | high. Why? Why am I gonna pick that? Because it has to do with that weekly gap opening, the markets going to want to do what it's going to want to draw back |
348 | 01:01:28,949 --> 01:01:40,079 | into that. So who's making money right now, at this time? Looking at the chart right here? Who's making money? Shorts? So where's their stop? Yes, they're |
349 | 01:01:40,079 --> 01:01:50,429 | right here. But more specifically, the rate there? Because this highs forming when that new, you're already in the lunch hour? You're already in the lunch |
350 | 01:01:50,429 --> 01:02:03,539 | hour? That's not a high that runs the am session. Hi. I'm not saying the highest Hi, I'm saying the most recent high. Because Why think think folks think as the |
351 | 01:02:03,539 --> 01:02:12,599 | markets dropping, if they're short, what are they trying to do with their stop loss, jam it down to the next relative? High? Because they don't want to see the |
352 | 01:02:12,599 --> 01:02:21,689 | high taken. So their stop loss is going to be put just above it. So that's why you're going to focus right here. You understand that? I know you can't answer |
353 | 01:02:21,689 --> 01:02:31,589 | me, but think about it. When you're looking at price, you have to think about who's in that trade. How are they managing that trade? What is the worst case |
354 | 01:02:31,589 --> 01:02:40,259 | scenario for them on a nightmarish level that if they think is going to keep going lower, say in their mind, they think it's gonna go to 4000 even. I'm not |
355 | 01:02:40,259 --> 01:02:47,909 | saying that. But I'm saying that there's traders that think that kind of stuff all the time. They don't want to see their high taken out, even though they have |
356 | 01:02:47,909 --> 01:03:00,539 | their stock lost there. They don't think that's gonna happen. Well bring in the lunch hour. Here's the noon hour beginning is that short term, I said, we're not |
357 | 01:03:00,539 --> 01:03:12,539 | interested in that. We're looking at that high here. So this high has a m session by stops. So between noon and one o'clock in the afternoon, all this |
358 | 01:03:12,629 --> 01:03:23,039 | movement here. This is a high resistance liquidy run to it's a lot of rollercoaster ups and downs ups and downs. And where does it go? Ultimately, |
359 | 01:03:23,039 --> 01:03:31,289 | right where I mentioned, we'd see logically, the am session most recent high that would be considered a high for trailed stop losses, while the market |
360 | 01:03:31,289 --> 01:03:38,549 | dropped in the morning session. Real important, folks, if you don't have that recorded, if you didn't hear it properly listened to it several times in the |
361 | 01:03:38,549 --> 01:03:48,089 | video, because it's very plainly, it's plain language. It's plain English. It's very simplistic. But if you're new to trading, if you're new to speculation, and |
362 | 01:03:48,089 --> 01:03:56,369 | or even using a stop loss, because there's a lot of people out there, just don't even use a stop those that use a stop. Think like that, because that's what |
363 | 01:03:56,369 --> 01:04:06,359 | retail books and logic teaches them to do. I'm telling you how to be a carnivore, I'm teaching you how to be a predator to go after these retail minded |
364 | 01:04:06,359 --> 01:04:17,639 | theories, because they're flawed. They're designed to fail. They're absolutely bleeding you into the slaughterhouse. You're following all these Judas theory. |
365 | 01:04:19,859 --> 01:04:26,549 | You don't identify it because you think it's this? Well, you know, it's randomness that got me stopped out and I'll just, hopefully win the next one. |
366 | 01:04:27,299 --> 01:04:37,499 | Now, you're losing because you are trained to lose. You're taught well, lots of books and lots of offers out there. Keep promoting that garbage. It's not real |
367 | 01:04:37,529 --> 01:04:52,439 | information. It's misinformation. So the buy stocks that are resting above this high here. We run through that where post launch, when I saw at 131 30 is here. |
368 | 01:04:53,939 --> 01:05:03,899 | We're missing it by a minute or two. One more time it runs it. But look at this high here. Go back and look Get your charts, your jaw will drop, go over to this |
369 | 01:05:03,899 --> 01:05:15,689 | volume and bounce rate there. This candles opening price, which is the low the volume and bounce, that tick is the very tick high of that candle right there. |
370 | 01:05:16,379 --> 01:05:26,609 | So how far can it go above this hide around the stops? Well look to the left of what do you see? You see this wick? Consequent encouragement is just above that |
371 | 01:05:26,639 --> 01:05:33,089 | that's not reasonable. If he's going to run there, it's going to run a bit higher. So it means it's going to go above this. So what's above that volume |
372 | 01:05:33,089 --> 01:05:49,859 | imbalance. Bam, hits it. Failure, you're thinking bull flag, you're thinking it's going to continue higher. It's not only thing it's done is reverted back to |
373 | 01:05:49,949 --> 01:06:03,719 | that weekly opening gap. And it's broken above it here to do two things. Take out the stops here never trailed for shorts, and induce new buyers that think of |
374 | 01:06:03,719 --> 01:06:11,639 | that opening gap as a breakout. So now we've done what we went below it. So now if we can get back above that opening gap for the week, large funds will come in |
375 | 01:06:11,639 --> 01:06:25,319 | and they'll buy that. So they're doing what buying on a stop. They're buying with the expectation is going to continue higher. All the way that down into |
376 | 01:06:25,319 --> 01:06:36,389 | here, cleaning up all this inefficiency. We have sellside below here, here here and stacked heavily at the am session low. Small little fair value gap in here. |
377 | 01:06:37,259 --> 01:06:49,469 | mean between the high and the low. So the middle part of that is a consequent encroachment level. Trade right up into it here. Beautiful delivery for a gap |
378 | 01:06:49,979 --> 01:06:59,489 | high to low, we're gonna premium think about that. Dividing of the range from this high to that low as it's retracing. We're going to deep retracement, I |
379 | 01:06:59,489 --> 01:07:06,749 | don't need an indicator of something that's a result Do you do you need to plot our Fibonacci on this high that low to see that we're not already in a premium |
380 | 01:07:07,589 --> 01:07:15,479 | Your eyes have been trained to abide now. So the only thing you're using Fibonacci for is to find out the exact price for the mean threshold of order |
381 | 01:07:15,479 --> 01:07:26,339 | block or consequent quotient of an imbalance or project targets. That's the only reason why I touch a Fibonacci. That's the only reason why this is optimal trade |
382 | 01:07:26,339 --> 01:07:38,579 | entry. This is ote that's the flagship pattern of my channel until I guess the 2022 model was given to you last year, the market breaks down below 4140 and a |
383 | 01:07:38,579 --> 01:07:55,409 | quarter comes back up hits it fills in a bit of a gap there, breaks lower, small little imbalance here. Incidentally, this is your home Mark also this wick right |
384 | 01:07:55,409 --> 01:08:04,499 | here and we're looking at a one minute chart. So this wick right here between 415 and 430 that wick find out what that consequent encouragement level is on |
385 | 01:08:04,499 --> 01:08:14,069 | that the midpoint of that wick extended through this fair value gap and you'll get the very tick high of this candle right before it drops down. Yep, that's |
386 | 01:08:14,069 --> 01:08:24,719 | one of my favorite pet entries. I love that one. I love it and it'll serve you well when you know what you're looking for. Don't take my word for it go in and |
387 | 01:08:24,719 --> 01:08:34,379 | look at your chart and you'll see it it's perfect it's a perfect to the tick delivery on that candle and then suddenly it delivers those lower trades back up |
388 | 01:08:34,379 --> 01:08:47,279 | into old order flow here. One more time. What do you see here 123 breaks lower what's below these relative equal lows sell side to the market went up here for |
389 | 01:08:47,279 --> 01:08:48,059 | buy stops |
390 | 01:08:49,230 --> 01:08:58,680 | then ran down below these lows that was engineered starts rallying someone's going to buy that they see this as a bull flag it rallies up oh it's going to |
391 | 01:08:58,680 --> 01:09:06,030 | break up it's going to trade up to here even if they don't think it's going to break out retail watching things okay this is resistance so hold it until it |
392 | 01:09:06,030 --> 01:09:12,600 | gets to that level because it's our target they're not thinking trade up and through it they're thinking it's going to go back up here it's got room to still |
393 | 01:09:12,600 --> 01:09:24,300 | rally no it doesn't we're stalling here turning then attacking the sell side that was engineered with these runs higher. Buyers are gonna have their cell |
394 | 01:09:24,300 --> 01:09:32,490 | stop below that which is convenient for the smart money that selling to the old buy stops here. They have a net short position. Smart money's net short here. |
395 | 01:09:32,730 --> 01:09:43,800 | They add here they take some off here rallies back up fills in an inefficiency. This high here false just one tick short of constant encouragement here. Don't |
396 | 01:09:43,800 --> 01:09:51,060 | take my word for it. Go into your charts and you'll see it trades below these relative equal lows. What's below that sell stocks. Why? Because the market |
397 | 01:09:51,060 --> 01:09:56,760 | rallied up somebody's gonna chase it. They'll chase it and buy it up here and put their stop loss down here. You don't think they can do that or think they |
398 | 01:09:56,760 --> 01:10:04,890 | won't do that. Look at social media they're doing all the time. market drops attacks the sell side here. That's a partial and in bang, great blow the morning |
399 | 01:10:04,890 --> 01:10:21,810 | session well. Smart Money sells short, adds to shorts, takes partials, adds the shorts, covers at Terminus, a little more in session though. And then and only |
400 | 01:10:21,810 --> 01:10:39,000 | then the market goes back into sloppy chopping is getting ready for another day of the slaughterhouse on Thursday. So this year, I've talked about a number of |
401 | 01:10:39,000 --> 01:10:51,000 | things repetitively. And I've said certain things about the opening gap. And I said, to extend that through the entirety of the week, as long as we keep coming |
402 | 01:10:51,000 --> 01:11:03,390 | back to it, and we're not moving decisively away. We're not in a trending model. We have to trade short term price fluctuations and look at myself, liquidity, |
403 | 01:11:03,420 --> 01:11:14,220 | salsa, liquidity, inefficiencies, and be nimble, take ourselves, get them and get out. Don't fall in love. Don't marry the vein. Don't go in thinking, Oh, |
404 | 01:11:14,220 --> 01:11:22,140 | this is a short term trade intraday. But now it looks like it's really going to go higher. Let me hold on to it, because you will see it reverse on you. How do |
405 | 01:11:22,140 --> 01:11:31,470 | I know that? How do I know that you have to trade that guy? Because we keep coming back to that weekly gap opening? Think about it, folks. If this market |
406 | 01:11:31,470 --> 01:11:45,240 | was going to tear off, it would have done so. Right. And would it be coming back to this opening gap on Sunday? No way? Absolutely not. So use this insight going |
407 | 01:11:45,240 --> 01:11:53,430 | forward. I promise you it isn't me this using it when it works. Because I've already taught this and my students use it. It's something you trade with in |
408 | 01:11:53,430 --> 01:12:02,040 | perpetuity. You use it in the future all the time, because it's going to repeat. It's absolutely going to repeat look at the logic that I've already outlined |
409 | 01:12:02,040 --> 01:12:15,240 | before tonight. It's in this chart right here. It's doing exactly exactly what I codified exactly what I trained you to look for. This is exactly how it's coded. |
410 | 01:12:16,860 --> 01:12:29,670 | And it repeats every week, every day and it won't stop. So if you found this one insightful, and I don't know if I'll live stream tomorrow or Friday, but I will |
411 | 01:12:29,670 --> 01:12:38,790 | let you know by way of Twitter tomorrow how I feel if I feel like I'm going to have the energy to do it. Then I'll do it. If not, we'll do it on Friday. Okay, |
412 | 01:12:38,790 --> 01:12:49,950 | but I will certainly do it by Friday if not tomorrow. In the only way you know is on Twitter. Until next time, be safe |