ICT YT - 2023-02-07 - Price Action Chronicles - February 07 2023
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-02-08 10:07
Outline
00:20 - Introduction to today’s episode.
06:04 - What is a fair value gap?
13:42 - What’s above these equal highs by side liquidity?
19:33 - Cable and USD imbalance.
26:00 - What is the New Week Opening Gap?
31:59 - What is the difference between a real market and a synthetic market?
39:31 - How do you know if you’re right or wrong?
44:12 - How do you know if you’re doing it correctly?
50:20 - When do you stop taking partials?
01:00:03 - How to identify the right fair value gap.
01:06:27 - How to use a five-handle run as a starting point.
01:11:27 - Volume and bounce as an entry.
01:17:41 - How do you know if the market is bearish or bullish?
01:22:53 - What could happen at the open if the market breaks down.
01:29:32 - The importance of following the logic of the model.
01:34:46 - Watching the midpoint of this trade.
01:40:16 - High resistance liquidity run -.
01:50:00 - When does the market chop at the open when it's already delivered?
01:54:45 - Is it easier to get to 41 50 or 4121?
02:00:20 - The sellers that were interested in chasing markets lower today at the open haven’t seen much in delivery on the downside.
02:03:33 - Why do you want to hold on to something that could potentially turn on you?
02:08:24 - Chart of the Day -.
02:14:43 - It’s an opportunity for you to hurt yourself, do reckless trading, turn your account for broker sake and lose it.
02:19:23 - High resistance creates a lot of pausing and pausing deeper retracements.
02:23:52 - How do you know when to get in and get out of the market?
02:30:55 - Don’t force trades in low resistance conditions.
02:36:53 - It’s so much more than that in books and courses.
02:42:29 - How to use PDE as a stair step or a mountain climber.
02:48:01 - Turtle suits don’t require a PDE array.
02:52:35 - How far can it go below this low?
02:58:40 - Consolidation doesn’t guarantee it’s going to deliver.
03:04:03 - How to anticipate choppy opens at 930.
03:07:52 - Where liquidity hasn’t been tapped yet.
Transcription
| 1 | 00:00:20,190 --> 00:00:21,390 | ICT: Sure I don't see it |
| 2 | 00:00:59,459 --> 00:01:00,419 | bear with me folks |
| 3 | 00:01:28,200 --> 00:01:29,160 | bear with me folks |
| 4 | 00:02:00,840 --> 00:02:04,530 | right looks good morning everyone should be able to hear me |
| 5 | 00:02:18,540 --> 00:02:37,230 | right so today is the first of my price action Chronicles so we're going to start with a review where we are in relationship to where we have been and then |
| 6 | 00:02:37,230 --> 00:02:52,890 | I'll give you my analysis for the 30 and then 930 expectations so we are going to go into |
| 7 | 00:02:58,260 --> 00:03:13,950 | this view here and I'm showing the raw chart with everything showing like at the bottom down here so that we can see what I'm doing because sometimes I'll put a |
| 8 | 00:03:14,490 --> 00:03:30,330 | comparison chart when I want you to be able to see what it is I'm doing how I'm doing it I'm treating you just get on with this so we have first go to Dollar |
| 9 | 00:03:30,330 --> 00:03:30,870 | Index |
| 10 | 00:03:42,540 --> 00:03:50,520 | Alright, for some of you two have been with me for a while now and they have been with me since the beginning of the year for the analysis on Dollar Index. |
| 11 | 00:03:50,550 --> 00:04:02,160 | Now why am I even referring to that? Because it's a risk on risk off barometer, it tells me if I'm likely to see continued upside going long in ES or if I'm |
| 12 | 00:04:02,160 --> 00:04:15,870 | likely to see continued weakness in ES and also it kind of contributes to Agile learn throughout this year. When I'm expecting consolidation, choppiness things |
| 13 | 00:04:15,870 --> 00:04:26,640 | that might be conflicting in analysis. That means that I'm going to be looking for a lot lower degree of participation with risk. So in other words, if I'm not |
| 14 | 00:04:26,640 --> 00:04:39,480 | looking for a really clean one sided run, then I'll trade various small intraday scalps not try to capture the entire morning session run or the entire daily |
| 15 | 00:04:39,480 --> 00:04:51,240 | run, or even a large portion of the weekly range. So I'm using this indicator, whether if I'm doing analysis with the forex market, if I'm dealing with the |
| 16 | 00:04:51,240 --> 00:05:01,320 | bond market, if I'm doing it with equities index futures, okay, so, all of my analysis, every bit of my analysis starts with this instrum I'm here, because it |
| 17 | 00:05:01,320 --> 00:05:13,680 | helps me frame the logic of whether I should be a trader, that's assuming risk. That means buying foreign currencies or buying stock. And if that's the case, |
| 18 | 00:05:13,890 --> 00:05:22,290 | then I'm assuming that it's risk going. And that would be a lower dollar. We were looking for a lower dollar at the beginning of the year. If you go back and |
| 19 | 00:05:22,290 --> 00:05:30,480 | look at the analysis videos, it's on my YouTube channel, and follow all the commentary on the tweet stuff posted on my Twitter account. No, there's a lot of |
| 20 | 00:05:30,480 --> 00:05:39,150 | it. But for those that have been here, this is old hat to you. But I'm counseling you not to take my word for it, because it's going to look like it's |
| 21 | 00:05:39,150 --> 00:05:48,930 | hindsight here. But everything I'm going to talk about here was talked about beforehand. So it's kind of like a benchmark where we were, where we are now and |
| 22 | 00:05:48,930 --> 00:05:59,220 | where we're likely to go to next. So it kind of gives you like a full circle perspective on what I'm seeing and or expecting. We're looking for lower prices |
| 23 | 00:05:59,970 --> 00:06:09,240 | Celsa liquidity that was absolutely tagged, and an asset. If we went below that, we have an order block, and we have a fair value gap in here. If you look at the |
| 24 | 00:06:09,450 --> 00:06:20,730 | range, and I promise, I'll be very, very quick through this because I want to be in front of the charts live a third. So half of this gap between this candles |
| 25 | 00:06:20,730 --> 00:06:35,520 | high in this candles low. That's a bison unbalanced sell side inefficiency, with an order block. So the order block is down close candle. Why is that an order |
| 26 | 00:06:35,520 --> 00:06:47,160 | block, because it has a fair value. Price has moved away from it. So if it comes back down and retreats back into this candle here, we're gonna see some kind of |
| 27 | 00:06:47,160 --> 00:06:56,040 | what reaction does it mean, it's the ultimate low and the dollar never sees any lower prices? No, it just means that it's going to be a strong draw on price |
| 28 | 00:06:56,070 --> 00:07:13,800 | when price is above it, as it was in the beginning of the year. Here. We've lower we use the fair value gap here as resistance. Okay, drops lower, digs into |
| 29 | 00:07:13,800 --> 00:07:22,560 | the sell side liquidity throughout this year, you're gonna see that while many folks that come to my work, they're gonna say, or you'll hear other people say, |
| 30 | 00:07:23,760 --> 00:07:31,950 | ICT complicates things. I'm not complicating it, I'm just giving you a deep understanding about what it is is available in terms of trading price action. |
| 31 | 00:07:32,760 --> 00:07:40,890 | Throughout this year, in my sessions in ongoing teachings, you're going to see that it's absolutely simple. It's very simple. We're only looking for one of two |
| 32 | 00:07:40,890 --> 00:07:52,470 | things is price going higher. Okay, if it's going higher, is it going to go above an old singular high, a swing high, or relative equal highs? Because above |
| 33 | 00:07:52,500 --> 00:08:01,350 | highs is going to be bias either quarterly? Or is it going to go lower? If it's going to go lower, it's going to go down below a single swing low or below |
| 34 | 00:08:01,440 --> 00:08:15,510 | relative equal lows. So multiple lows or a singular low below those lows is sellside. liquidity. Now if I'm bullish, and we have a imbalance, what an |
| 35 | 00:08:15,510 --> 00:08:28,980 | imbalance, something like this. And like that, and I'm bearish, like I wasn't in the beginning on dollar is going to draw to those levels. So I had two points of |
| 36 | 00:08:28,980 --> 00:08:35,430 | interest where I had the sell side here. And I said once we go below that it could dig into this imbalance in this order block, go back and watch the videos. |
| 37 | 00:08:35,730 --> 00:08:43,530 | It's in January's commentaries can't edit it can't change it. What I want to take your attention to is the fact that we went right down to the middle point |
| 38 | 00:08:43,560 --> 00:08:51,720 | of that gap, which is consequent encouragement. Whenever there's an imbalance, whether it be by side imbalance, suicide inefficiency, which is what this is |
| 39 | 00:08:51,720 --> 00:09:05,250 | here. It is a fair value gap by category within that category is classified as a buy side unbalanced sell side inefficiency, or busy bi si you'll see that used a |
| 40 | 00:09:05,250 --> 00:09:14,940 | lot in my charts. A lot of my students have their charts annotated like that as well. There's three levels. Okay, this is what I argue all the time when people |
| 41 | 00:09:15,120 --> 00:09:22,470 | just casually watch my content or my concepts they'll say it's supply and demand. It has absolutely nothing to do with supply and demand. It's three |
| 42 | 00:09:22,470 --> 00:09:34,230 | specific price levels that I'm what I'm looking for the actual high, which is going to be framed by this candles low. So there's this gap or February gap is |
| 43 | 00:09:34,230 --> 00:09:47,220 | framed with this specific price level the middle, which is consequent encouragement, and then the low. The low is the less likely price objective. So |
| 44 | 00:09:47,220 --> 00:09:59,490 | the two most primary levels when you when you're above it, trading down into it. It's going to be the high of that gap. And as much as the midpoint look at the |
| 45 | 00:09:59,490 --> 00:10:16,650 | reaction there I see that right there. That's undeniable. Okay. Also notice that I was framing shorts on s&p last week. Because we had traded down into this |
| 46 | 00:10:16,650 --> 00:10:32,220 | imbalance, I apologize, I got this new headset on using and slide all around my head. The the reaction here on dollar, this rally up into this imbalance here. |
| 47 | 00:10:33,510 --> 00:10:43,200 | And we don't know yet because really, we haven't really opened up and move around a lot so far tonight and into this morning's trading session. So I'm not |
| 48 | 00:10:44,010 --> 00:10:52,200 | going to have a whole lot of this is what's going to happen at 930, I have to wait to see what we do at 930. So and you'll understand where and how I get that |
| 49 | 00:10:52,200 --> 00:10:59,070 | logic where you'll be able to do it once. We're not doing this anymore next year, and you're doing independently without me, when you're looking at your |
| 50 | 00:10:59,070 --> 00:11:06,570 | charts, you'll know what procedures to follow, and what not to worry about and what things you need to be focusing on. But we've traded up into this area here. |
| 51 | 00:11:07,110 --> 00:11:19,860 | So as it stands right now, the market has already posted a risk off scenario, where dollars going higher, that means foreign currencies are likely to go |
| 52 | 00:11:19,860 --> 00:11:34,230 | lower, and or has gone lower. For equities, like stock indices, and stocks individually, they'll see temporary weakness against this rally in the dollar. |
| 53 | 00:11:34,830 --> 00:11:43,470 | So if you get shorting opportunities in like the s&p and your charts are communicating that there's a potential low resistance liquidity run. Again, if |
| 54 | 00:11:43,470 --> 00:11:50,400 | you don't know what that is, you'll be seeing a lot of that throughout this year. That's what I'm teaching primarily to focus on, there's going to be a lot |
| 55 | 00:11:50,400 --> 00:12:01,260 | of gyrations in price action that are going to be of no importance to me. And you'll probably see them today in future live streams where you'll question, why |
| 56 | 00:12:01,260 --> 00:12:09,150 | didn't you take that trade, it's not my setup, that's not the one I'm interested in, you might see it. So don't look at whatever I call whatever I call talk or |
| 57 | 00:12:09,150 --> 00:12:18,930 | outline in price action, don't let it discourage you from following a model you may have already adopted, it's helping you in finding setups. I'm not here to |
| 58 | 00:12:18,930 --> 00:12:26,910 | try to twist anyone's arm. I'm here just simply communicating to the folks that are new. This is how you go in and you start learning how to read the tape |
| 59 | 00:12:26,910 --> 00:12:33,570 | before you even press a demo account before you even do any of that stuff. These are the things you're supposed to be doing. And it's gonna seem boring, |
| 60 | 00:12:33,570 --> 00:12:42,600 | especially for seasoned traders that are already profitable, it's not going to be as exciting or helpful to you. But as we go further into this year, you'll |
| 61 | 00:12:42,600 --> 00:12:50,490 | see there's going to be a whole lot more engagement. But in the beginning, there has to be a foundation. So the market has already traded up for the dollar into |
| 62 | 00:12:50,490 --> 00:12:58,350 | this area here. I like the idea of it trading up into the midpoint of this up close candle, which is a bearish order block the midpoint of the order block, |
| 63 | 00:12:58,650 --> 00:13:02,880 | which has nothing to do with the depth of market or level two data. |
| 64 | 00:13:04,200 --> 00:13:15,480 | Half of that candle is mean threshold. So half of a gap, like down here is consequent encouragement, half of a quarter block, whether it be the last up |
| 65 | 00:13:15,480 --> 00:13:22,710 | close candle prior to a displacement lower with a fair value gap. That's what makes us a bearish order block. Not typically because it's the last up close |
| 66 | 00:13:22,710 --> 00:13:33,450 | candle before a down move, there has to be signatures and alignment that are agreed. And the midpoint of that candle is mean threshold. That means it's |
| 67 | 00:13:33,450 --> 00:13:42,630 | likely to draw up to this candle and as much as the midpoint. Now what I'm interested in seeing is do we trade through the mean threshold? Because if we |
| 68 | 00:13:42,630 --> 00:13:53,700 | do, I've had this annotated here. And while it was a volume imbalance initially here, here, failed it here. So now what's above these relative equal highs by |
| 69 | 00:13:53,700 --> 00:14:05,340 | side liquidity? So buy sell liquidity with a small little gap right there between this candle is high and that candles low. So there's a there's a |
| 70 | 00:14:05,340 --> 00:14:14,670 | potential draw for dollar to get up to here. I'm not stating unequivocally that it's going to go there. I'm watching to see throughout this week, do we see |
| 71 | 00:14:14,670 --> 00:14:25,560 | signs that it wants to continuously press up into this area? If it does, that means we have potential not a guarantee potential for lower prices in forex, |
| 72 | 00:14:25,980 --> 00:14:38,880 | stocks and stock averages. So that's where my focus is today. I want to see do we get more indications that that's probable or are we going to hit this fair |
| 73 | 00:14:38,880 --> 00:14:43,530 | pay gap, complete closure here and then we draw sales you can see. |
| 74 | 00:14:58,559 --> 00:15:07,409 | So we have just a little bit left in here, and I want to watch and see do we get a reaction and start to sell off a little bit? And if we do sell off, how far |
| 75 | 00:15:07,409 --> 00:15:17,039 | can it go, we have a breaker here we have a low, high, lower low. So that up close candle on here, it can trade down as far as that, which would be around |
| 76 | 00:15:17,039 --> 00:15:32,339 | the one or 230 to one to 255 ish. There's two specific price levels. So that's what I'm looking for for dollar and the relationships between what levels and |
| 77 | 00:15:32,339 --> 00:15:42,449 | why I expect to see either one potentially drawn to I don't have a right now this is what's going to do. We haven't seen a whole lot of movement overnight. |
| 78 | 00:15:43,349 --> 00:15:53,399 | We don't really have any heavy news we have at 830. Some kind of weak report, in terms of in my opinion, but we could get a little bit of movement in about 11 |
| 79 | 00:15:53,399 --> 00:16:07,199 | minutes. Real quickly wanted to touch on Euro. I see you're mentioned also the beginning of year that we were going to draw up into these relatively equal |
| 80 | 00:16:07,199 --> 00:16:14,189 | highs for the buy side. And if it gets above that we could trade up into this very vague again, go go back and watch the videos. The bodies respected |
| 81 | 00:16:14,189 --> 00:16:25,709 | perfectly Look at that. The clothes in the open on his candle. And after running up into that city, it's a fair value get by classification. But specifically, |
| 82 | 00:16:25,709 --> 00:16:32,279 | it's a sell side and balanced by side inefficiency, meaning that it only delivered price on the downside. So how does the market algorithmically |
| 83 | 00:16:32,279 --> 00:16:46,349 | rebalance and reprice this range, it has to do what deliver it on the upside. So it trades up into it offers that buy side that was inefficient over here. And |
| 84 | 00:16:46,349 --> 00:16:54,779 | then we had the market displace lower. So he took out a short term swing low here, I liked the idea that we traded down into a bison imbalance I was on |
| 85 | 00:16:54,779 --> 00:17:02,909 | efficiency here. So this is a fair of a gap to this singular candle. And we could dig down a bit further, just like we mentioned on the dollar has a little |
| 86 | 00:17:02,909 --> 00:17:10,709 | bit more upside to fill in its gap doesn't mean much in terms of opportunity. It just means that's where my focus is just because we're sitting in front of |
| 87 | 00:17:10,709 --> 00:17:18,089 | charts, and we have time to be in front of the charts and the markets are trading doesn't mean Oh, I got time, the charts are printing candlesticks, so |
| 88 | 00:17:18,089 --> 00:17:27,929 | therefore let's take a trade that's gambling. So there has to be something for me to, to lean on logically, to frame a condition that would be hopefully, high |
| 89 | 00:17:27,929 --> 00:17:36,209 | probability, I only want to encourage you to focus on those types of opportunities, there's plenty, there's a plethora of opportunities intraday, |
| 90 | 00:17:36,389 --> 00:17:48,479 | that are not really good risk, well framed with real good risk reward models, not that I'm a big fan of risk reward because I think it's a fallacy, you don't |
| 91 | 00:17:48,479 --> 00:17:56,009 | know if your trades gonna pan out that much. And you don't know if your stop loss is gonna get hit. So no one knows that. So you might look to trade with a |
| 92 | 00:17:56,009 --> 00:18:06,119 | specific risk model, five to 110 to 131. But the going into this industry thinking that you're always going to get what you're setting your trade up for |
| 93 | 00:18:06,839 --> 00:18:15,929 | is a fallacy, you have no control once you enter the marketplace. So I'm going to be teaching you hopefully, to ferret out these opportunities, where price |
| 94 | 00:18:15,929 --> 00:18:24,389 | action can deliver with the highest degree of probability reaching from one level to the next notice I didn't say I'm going to put you in winning trades. |
| 95 | 00:18:24,539 --> 00:18:35,459 | That's a stark contrast to what I'm trying to do here. I'm trying to teach you how to read price. If you're here to try to like keep score or something like |
| 96 | 00:18:35,459 --> 00:18:45,119 | that. That's not what this is. I have other live streams that I'll do things I'll I'll showcase stuff here. It's lectures, teaching, getting down to the |
| 97 | 00:18:45,119 --> 00:18:51,629 | brass tacks of what you're supposed to be doing before you even present them account using the things I'm teaching on my channel. Okay, so that we hopefully |
| 98 | 00:18:51,629 --> 00:18:58,619 | have communicate that clearly. It's not meant for you to follow along and press a live trade. Don't try to trade your funded account with the things I'm going |
| 99 | 00:18:58,619 --> 00:19:08,699 | to say today in any future. Live Stream, okay. It's very important that you understand that. Today also marks the day where I'm not writing, I'm not |
| 100 | 00:19:08,699 --> 00:19:17,129 | replying or Harding or liking any posts on Twitter. It is now just a medium for me to alert you. If there's something that's got my attention, and I'm not live |
| 101 | 00:19:17,129 --> 00:19:23,579 | streaming, I'm gonna bring something to your attention. I don't care to know what your responses are. I don't care if you'd like it. I don't care if you |
| 102 | 00:19:23,579 --> 00:19:30,659 | don't like it. Don't communicate to me through it because I'm not reading any of it. My attention is dialed in in the markets for now and between now in the |
| 103 | 00:19:30,659 --> 00:19:42,659 | second Friday of November. It's all work. No play. Cable real quick. We'll just take a quick look at this one. This one was unable to make a higher high before |
| 104 | 00:19:42,659 --> 00:19:55,259 | I transitioned to cable, look at the higher highs being posted here up into its fair value gap for year over here. And then look at cable weak, really weak. So |
| 105 | 00:19:55,289 --> 00:20:05,189 | we had this imbalance here. I wanted to see it run above take by side it failed to do so. It looks likely that we'll get down in to the sell side here. If we |
| 106 | 00:20:05,189 --> 00:20:20,519 | accelerate through this, be mindful that we have this area over here, which since cables already posted weakness comparatively to the euro, if one were to |
| 107 | 00:20:20,519 --> 00:20:33,569 | consider, if we see acceleration on the upside for dollar, again, that's risk off. higher dollar is lower prices for foreign currencies, and lower likely |
| 108 | 00:20:33,659 --> 00:20:44,969 | lower for stock indices, equities index futures. So if we take up this low, it could, if dollar accelerates to the upside, we could see cable drop down into |
| 109 | 00:20:44,969 --> 00:20:56,489 | this imbalance here. Alright, so that's about it for forex. Let's go on over to you yes. |
| 110 | 00:21:27,450 --> 00:21:41,430 | All right, so we have the upper left hand corner chart that is the hourly chart, the lower left hand corner is the 50 minute time frame. And the one minute |
| 111 | 00:21:41,430 --> 00:21:50,580 | chart, which will change throughout the live sessions, I'll toggle this particular chart from five minute four minute, three minute two minute one. |
| 112 | 00:21:50,850 --> 00:22:01,500 | Okay. And pretty much mimicking what I have static in front of me, when you watch the little Stinger video I put up on my Twitter this morning, you've |
| 113 | 00:22:01,500 --> 00:22:11,820 | probably already seen it, it's my trading real estate at eight monitors in front of me. And one of the screens itself has a one minute, two minute, three minute, |
| 114 | 00:22:12,150 --> 00:22:22,500 | four minute for NASDAQ and the ES. Since I'm using those two markets, primarily from trading index futures, I don't trade the Dow even though you will see the |
| 115 | 00:22:22,500 --> 00:22:31,470 | Dow flash, you know when it's necessary to be mentioning it, I don't trade the doubt and just trying to discourage you from trading. If you've been successful |
| 116 | 00:22:31,470 --> 00:22:40,380 | with it. If you'd like that medium, by all means stick to it, don't let me or anyone else take you out of what you're trying to do in the deal. Okay, I'm |
| 117 | 00:22:40,380 --> 00:22:50,670 | trying to do is inspire you to read price from a classical point of view, without indicators, completely naked. Nothing in here, you'd like this little |
| 118 | 00:22:50,670 --> 00:23:04,770 | red line down here. That's not an indicator, all that is is the NASDAQ. It's the price on this year. It's a line chart. And the way you get that how you get that |
| 119 | 00:23:04,770 --> 00:23:17,130 | mean, just take it off, and I'll let you see how we do it. Government still got to your little plus symbol here on TradingView. You click on that, be mindful |
| 120 | 00:23:17,130 --> 00:23:27,090 | that you're looking at the chart that you're not going to load back up in words, plotting s&p, so ES is the chart so I want to compare it to NASDAQ. So you would |
| 121 | 00:23:27,090 --> 00:23:35,910 | do the same thing here, you type out the front month code for the index that you want to compare it to, you can do this with with a doubt too. Like if you wanted |
| 122 | 00:23:35,910 --> 00:23:47,910 | to put the Dow Have you put y m h for the month code for November, I'm sorry for March, November 2023. Okay, and if I did that, it's plotting over top, you don't |
| 123 | 00:23:47,910 --> 00:24:01,620 | want that. So on target, and click on new pain. And it'll plot it down here. Now if you want to add the NASDAQ in addition to you can put n q h 2023. Now when |
| 124 | 00:24:01,770 --> 00:24:14,760 | March contract expires, you would change the H two M for the delivery month of June. Okay, and then plot that. And then again, it's plotting your top but you |
| 125 | 00:24:14,760 --> 00:24:26,280 | don't want to do that. You want to go to New pain. Alright, and then what you would do is if you want to compare it like if you're looking for market breadth |
| 126 | 00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:36,900 | to continue working lower, you would be comparing the highs. So you would click on the toggle box here on your price source you would go to high. Okay, and then |
| 127 | 00:24:36,900 --> 00:24:47,700 | here for the NASDAQ same thing. You would go to high and what that's doing is it's plotting. I don't like the light blue color. It's plotting the relationship |
| 128 | 00:24:47,760 --> 00:24:58,050 | of all of the highs. So you can comparatively study the difference in relationships between all the price highs that have Yes, that's the trading |
| 129 | 00:24:58,080 --> 00:25:09,090 | market as I'm trading that market. But I'm looking at the relationships between how the market has priced in specific highs and lows relative to the Dow, which |
| 130 | 00:25:09,090 --> 00:25:18,570 | is the only real use for me as a trader, I don't trade the Dow. And then you have the NASDAQ. So I'm looking at the relationships between the highs in one |
| 131 | 00:25:18,570 --> 00:25:24,870 | pay on that one pair, but one market versus the other. And what I mean, but what's the what's the benefit of doing something like this, if you look at the |
| 132 | 00:25:24,870 --> 00:25:42,510 | relationship of these highs here on NASDAQ with that of Dow and then E Mini s&p. So you can see that the s&p looked stronger here. And it was relatively |
| 133 | 00:25:42,510 --> 00:25:50,070 | speaking. But it was just running up into take stops. And how do you know it's a stock run? When you start seeing weakness across the averages like this? And |
| 134 | 00:25:50,070 --> 00:25:59,790 | this is simply just Dow Theory. And I like to look at that to confirm market breadth does the market offer the likelihood of continued price move higher or |
| 135 | 00:25:59,790 --> 00:26:10,500 | lower? Okay. And about 25 seconds or so we have some news coming in. It's not terribly exciting, in my opinion, but we'll watch and see. But that's how you |
| 136 | 00:26:10,500 --> 00:26:18,180 | add those things. They're not indicators. That's not an oscillator. It's not, you know, I don't use indicators. Okay, but I'm looking at the relationships |
| 137 | 00:26:18,180 --> 00:26:29,070 | between the averages that'll help me many times, ferret out an idea. Or at least, that's the plan, right? You might be looking at these levels over here |
| 138 | 00:26:29,100 --> 00:26:42,450 | asking what they are, that is the new week opening gap high and low. They maximize this real quick. On Sundays opening, as soon as the market opens, the |
| 139 | 00:26:42,450 --> 00:26:48,750 | only thing I do anymore, I used to trade Sundays, but I don't trade them anymore. The only thing I'm interested in doing on Sunday is seeing where we |
| 140 | 00:26:48,750 --> 00:26:54,240 | open. So here's the opening price on Sunday. And you want to do that |
| 141 | 00:27:01,200 --> 00:27:10,170 | I'm not sure you guys can still hear me or not sound like this headset just powered down. It's a brand new one. So I don't know. I don't know if it's |
| 142 | 00:27:10,170 --> 00:27:21,510 | picking up the audio. me a second here you should be still hearing me. So we'll stick with it. |
| 143 | 00:27:36,089 --> 00:27:47,369 | Okay, and on a 15 minute timeframe, the opening price on Sunday, you annotate that. And then you have the closing price on Friday. So that range is your new |
| 144 | 00:27:47,369 --> 00:27:52,709 | week opening gap. So wanna make sure I can hear myself, if I can hear myself you should be fine. |
| 145 | 00:28:08,670 --> 00:28:22,260 | All right, I apologize if the video audio goes to a lower degree of volume. But I don't know how to fix this headset is purchase. So we'll just have to work |
| 146 | 00:28:22,260 --> 00:28:32,790 | with this until I can overcome that we can still be thinking you can still hear me. So this gap, this new week opening gap. It has been taught by me multiple |
| 147 | 00:28:32,790 --> 00:28:43,680 | times throughout the years that this is like a real strong price magnet, the markets gonna want to gravitate back to it if we're not trending. Okay, this is |
| 148 | 00:28:43,680 --> 00:28:51,540 | the part where if you're watching and you don't have a notepad or your journaling is not being utilized here. You're wasting your time watching this. |
| 149 | 00:28:51,810 --> 00:29:03,210 | Because these are things that repeat if the markets going to be consolidating, or not in a trending environment, the opening gap one Sunday, if you extend it |
| 150 | 00:29:03,210 --> 00:29:12,630 | through all the way through Friday, you're going to see many times the price will gravitate back to it. Sometimes it'll go into halfway. Sometimes it'll go |
| 151 | 00:29:12,660 --> 00:29:23,070 | completely through it. It'll act as real support and resistance that the way you expect classic support resistance to work like you see in the books, these two |
| 152 | 00:29:23,070 --> 00:29:38,640 | price levels and the middle of it. What is the middle just take your fib plot on the opening price on Sunday and you apply it to the closing price on Friday. |
| 153 | 00:29:39,180 --> 00:29:49,890 | That range is extremely sensitive, especially with the low the high in the midpoint. So the midpoint level would be 4140 and a quarter |
| 154 | 00:30:08,010 --> 00:30:16,470 | And you can draw some distinctions, the way you would want to do it, I'm just showing like this is one way of doing it so that we can differentiate what what |
| 155 | 00:30:16,470 --> 00:30:18,360 | it is, you can make them very bold |
| 156 | 00:30:26,910 --> 00:30:39,420 | and I keep mine like like a black color which is in indirectly use something that's standing out my chart, whereas usually I'll have like a blue line or a |
| 157 | 00:30:39,420 --> 00:30:49,080 | red line for like liquidity pool. This way, it's drawing a heavy distinction between what I level might be on a lower timeframe, I know that that big, heavy, |
| 158 | 00:30:49,080 --> 00:30:58,530 | thick black line is rooted on something higher timeframe and or in this case, it's the new week opening gap. You can see how we've already traded up to it |
| 159 | 00:30:58,530 --> 00:31:10,710 | here, it bumped it here, failed to go here went lower work to here, just fell short there, tried several times here and failed right here. So we haven't |
| 160 | 00:31:10,710 --> 00:31:22,740 | really probed anything above meaningfully, the consequent encouragement, which again, consequent corrosion is half of a gap, or any inefficiency. So this was |
| 161 | 00:31:22,770 --> 00:31:32,610 | this level was here, we haven't worked really anything up into this area here. So there's a little bit of price action that has not closed in, or offered by |
| 162 | 00:31:32,610 --> 00:31:38,820 | side here. So even if we do go low, or take out this low, which is in my mind, likely this morning. |
| 163 | 00:31:46,349 --> 00:31:55,259 | We could go down here reject and make an attempt up here if we get that weakness in $1. So if the dollar does trade lower, that would offer an opportunity for |
| 164 | 00:31:55,259 --> 00:32:02,429 | the market that wouldn't trade back up into this new week opening gap, which is these specific price levels. Now, think about what are the stated there. I'm not |
| 165 | 00:32:02,429 --> 00:32:11,579 | teaching supply and demand, I don't believe in supply and demand. Unless we're talking about commodities, which are really directly linked to a real supply and |
| 166 | 00:32:11,579 --> 00:32:18,479 | demand factor. Because it's a real, it's a real market. Not to say that you can't make money in this market, it's not a real market, not in the same sense |
| 167 | 00:32:18,479 --> 00:32:33,809 | that a bushel of wheat or gold, that's something real, okay. The value of a stock in the sea is not the same as something that you can eat it, this could |
| 168 | 00:32:34,109 --> 00:32:44,249 | theoretically go to zero. Highly unlikely, but it theoretically could go to zero. Gold's not going to zero wheats not going to zero, you know, cattle and |
| 169 | 00:32:44,249 --> 00:32:53,939 | beef prices, pork, you crude oil, it's not going to zero. So there's a real supply demand factors with those markets. But when we look at markets like this, |
| 170 | 00:32:54,209 --> 00:33:05,189 | this in many ways, I view them as synthetic. They don't have the same measure of supply and demand. But it is manipulated and engineered. So the interest is |
| 171 | 00:33:05,189 --> 00:33:15,359 | always constantly manipulated. So what I do and what I teach my students to do is look for areas in markets where the manipulation is obvious, or it's |
| 172 | 00:33:15,359 --> 00:33:27,389 | expected. And then we look for setups that repeat using phenomenon based on markets trading to liquidity by side liquidity, which is above a high or |
| 173 | 00:33:27,419 --> 00:33:39,419 | relative equal highs. That can be an entry to a new trade, or it could be a closing target for an existing trade. Don't think that it's that that is the |
| 174 | 00:33:39,419 --> 00:33:51,839 | only approach for your trade is its target only now I can use it as an entry to, as you'll learn this year as well. I want to focus primarily on what I taught |
| 175 | 00:33:51,839 --> 00:34:04,559 | last year, that model, the 2020 model. But I can't promise that I won't stray off topic when it doesn't materialize. So because I'm in front of you live, I |
| 176 | 00:34:04,559 --> 00:34:13,259 | want to get you thinking about things beyond that model. So that way for those individuals, not that all of you should be but for those individuals that are |
| 177 | 00:34:13,649 --> 00:34:22,049 | already outgrowing that model, because you've never used it, you're making money with your funded account or maybe live funds and you're learning. You want to do |
| 178 | 00:34:22,049 --> 00:34:33,809 | something more and broaden your horizons in terms of price action. I'll show and do more of that stuff this year. But also it's it's beneficial for you to just |
| 179 | 00:34:33,809 --> 00:34:43,259 | simply because I might not trade a specific price swing doesn't mean that I can't see it or you may not steer away from it, maybe the very pattern that |
| 180 | 00:34:43,259 --> 00:34:57,509 | you're going to focus in on. So I'm trying to be the mentor that allows you to bring your own I'm going to maximize this now. So all of this is going to |
| 181 | 00:34:57,509 --> 00:35:11,099 | disappear and It's not important that stays up, I just want to make sure that showed you how did that compare. Alright, so now think about what has happened |
| 182 | 00:35:11,099 --> 00:35:14,999 | here, we have a five minute chart, we have liquidity down here. |
| 183 | 00:35:20,250 --> 00:35:30,660 | So at this low and just below it, I teach my students we aim for that. I don't look at that as it's going to come down here and bounce. I don't ever look at it |
| 184 | 00:35:30,660 --> 00:35:40,950 | like that. I look at price like, who went long here? I don't, I don't know, you don't know, we don't care, somebody went long the market went higher. So below |
| 185 | 00:35:40,950 --> 00:35:51,840 | that low classical technical analysis is going to do what? Preach that you have to put your stop loss rate at that low or just below, right. So what kind of |
| 186 | 00:35:51,840 --> 00:36:02,850 | stops is going to be there? A Sell Stop. Which is why I teach that that is sell side liquidity. |
| 187 | 00:36:13,260 --> 00:36:26,370 | Price rallies up, it breaks down what just happened right here, right below this low. It shifts market where bullish or bearish, bearish. So what we do is we |
| 188 | 00:36:26,370 --> 00:36:38,490 | look inside this price leg here. And we look for any inefficiency. So once this leg here has been broken on that candle, that one right there, that's where you |
| 189 | 00:36:38,490 --> 00:36:49,230 | enter with the expectation of finding the setup that I taught in the 2022 model. This is exactly what you would expect to see. Now why is that, because you're |
| 190 | 00:36:49,230 --> 00:36:53,670 | seeing number one by side taken, see these relative equal highs over here |
| 191 | 00:36:59,040 --> 00:37:08,250 | above this area, anywhere in your price, anywhere in your chart, I don't care what market you trade, it doesn't matter. It's this is like a constant thing |
| 192 | 00:37:08,250 --> 00:37:16,200 | that repeats over and over and over again, watch this volume imbalance in here, by the way, because it could see that and drop down and deliver. But by side |
| 193 | 00:37:16,200 --> 00:37:25,230 | liquidity here above old highs when the markets dropping. |
| 194 | 00:37:30,390 --> 00:37:38,760 | like it does here. If anyone wants short there, where would they place their stop, theoretically to protect themselves, the books teach us what put your stop |
| 195 | 00:37:38,760 --> 00:37:49,980 | loss at the high or just above it. So the market drops down rallies from here. And all of this area here that's absorbing and engaging all the by side |
| 196 | 00:37:49,980 --> 00:37:58,800 | liquidity or by stops, that will be resting above these relative equal highs. So that's that's what's occurring here. So what I teach my students and how I |
| 197 | 00:37:58,800 --> 00:38:08,640 | internalize price, when I see that I'm expecting price to do what show a willingness to want to go lower. Because it went up here for real orders, I |
| 198 | 00:38:08,640 --> 00:38:19,140 | don't need level two, you don't need level two, you don't need depth of market to see that it's, it's plain. Wherever there are smooth edges, like these |
| 199 | 00:38:19,140 --> 00:38:28,890 | relatively equal highs like this, the market, it's uncanny how it will go up there and make those smooth edges jagged. So it's all nice and smooth here like |
| 200 | 00:38:28,890 --> 00:38:39,990 | a like a perfect ceiling, right. And then all of a sudden, he says smash running up, spend some time up here, and then breaks lower. This moment right here, when |
| 201 | 00:38:39,990 --> 00:38:53,190 | it takes up these lows in that candle. That is the market model that I gave you for 2022 Doesn't mean you get in it means now you look at this price leg here, |
| 202 | 00:38:53,550 --> 00:39:04,800 | go back through this price lay because this is the displacement price late, this low has been taken out right there. So inside this entire run lower, you want to |
| 203 | 00:39:05,910 --> 00:39:17,430 | look at where there is an inefficiency or fair value gap. That fair value gap is your entry point. You just don't chase it just because it went down below here. |
| 204 | 00:39:17,850 --> 00:39:26,820 | Many times I see a lot of YouTubers, their breakout traders, you know, they might make money. But I promise if you spend a little bit of time I'm gonna |
| 205 | 00:39:26,820 --> 00:39:36,510 | teach you this year, you will enter shorts when the markets going up. And it seems scary. It seems like I don't want to do that. That's terrifying. How do |
| 206 | 00:39:36,510 --> 00:39:43,950 | you know? Well, number one, you know because you practice it. You do it over and over and over again. And by doing it over and over and over again, it |
| 207 | 00:39:43,950 --> 00:39:52,230 | desensitizes you to because in the beginning, you want to be correct. That's that's really you didn't get into this business to be right. Because if you |
| 208 | 00:39:52,230 --> 00:40:00,360 | wanted to be right, you would play board games and play chess. Okay, those types of things. I was right about these moves and these outcomes and that will As the |
| 209 | 00:40:00,420 --> 00:40:11,250 | reward for it in the markets, you want to be profitable, and control and manage risk. You don't want to do anything but that that's the number one factor for |
| 210 | 00:40:11,280 --> 00:40:21,180 | while you're doing something. But in the beginning that, that lower into the marketplace while you're doing it changes and morphs into, I want to be right, I |
| 211 | 00:40:21,180 --> 00:40:41,220 | don't want to be wrong, because ego pride, just I guess the inability to embrace uncertainty creates fear. And somehow, we, as humans, encapsulate that one |
| 212 | 00:40:41,220 --> 00:40:55,560 | transaction at one idea that in many ways is insignificant. One trade is insignificant. But in the beginning, you make that singular trade, or a singular |
| 213 | 00:40:55,560 --> 00:41:08,670 | trade. Paramount, like it's the only thing that defines you as a profitable trader. And that is, unfortunately, something that is normal. It happens to |
| 214 | 00:41:08,670 --> 00:41:15,750 | everyone. I went through it, everyone else that's still trading profitably. Now, how long have you been doing it? They can sit there and and they're nodding |
| 215 | 00:41:15,750 --> 00:41:24,150 | their head right now listening to me. And yes, that's that's happens, everybody goes through that. The problem is, you want it to be black and white, perfect, |
| 216 | 00:41:24,150 --> 00:41:33,090 | you know, when it only works. And you know, when it doesn't work. So therefore, you're thinking that there's a way for me, and you and everyone else out there |
| 217 | 00:41:33,330 --> 00:41:44,730 | to never take the losing trade. And that doesn't exist, that does not exist. So you have to look at the probabilities of something repeating that we can look |
| 218 | 00:41:44,730 --> 00:41:55,500 | back in time and say, okay, it usually does this, it usually does that. And therefore, I've seen 100 sample sizes of this particular thing happening under |
| 219 | 00:41:55,500 --> 00:42:08,010 | these circumstances, you know, the things that lead up to it. And what does that mean? Well, as I mentioned, we had relatively equal highs, the market runs up in |
| 220 | 00:42:08,010 --> 00:42:17,670 | here, we don't do anything we're waiting, then the market drops. It does. So here, do we do anything with it? No. The market rallies again, what does it do? |
| 221 | 00:42:17,730 --> 00:42:28,770 | It runs above the rejection block in here. It's in my YouTube channel. And then there's a displacement lower. So this willingness to break sharply below a swing |
| 222 | 00:42:28,770 --> 00:42:44,460 | low after after taking by side, this is how you frame high probability. high probability for short means some measure of by side has been taken. We see that |
| 223 | 00:42:44,460 --> 00:42:56,730 | here, then you wait for what displacement, that means in plain terms, you want to see the market drop sharply lower and take out a specific low. Here's a short |
| 224 | 00:42:56,730 --> 00:43:06,750 | term low, it trades through here. Once we have that, then we can go back through all this price line here and look for inefficiencies. That means a specific fair |
| 225 | 00:43:06,750 --> 00:43:18,990 | value gap. Now, once you have that price leg identified, you want to go through all your timeframes 54321. Right now I'm showing you on a five minute chart. So |
| 226 | 00:43:19,380 --> 00:43:22,500 | we have this price like from high to low. |
| 227 | 00:43:32,610 --> 00:43:45,660 | High to low. This is the low that was shown as a break in market structure and that pretty uncertain, say that way, a shift in market structure. So anything at |
| 228 | 00:43:45,660 --> 00:43:58,920 | this level or higher. We want to look at that as a potential what Vega now, this is the part that being mentored versus just watching one of my videos or listen |
| 229 | 00:43:58,920 --> 00:44:07,110 | to someone else, try to take a series of lectures, or a video of mine that may be an hour or so long, and they try to condense it to a five minute train and |
| 230 | 00:44:07,110 --> 00:44:13,500 | learn ICT stuff in five minutes. You're never going to learn what I'm about to show you in this five minute trainer versions. Okay, I understand everybody |
| 231 | 00:44:13,500 --> 00:44:19,560 | wants to get clicks on their videos and such but if you want to learn you get there's a way of doing it correctly. And there's a way of just looking at |
| 232 | 00:44:19,560 --> 00:44:26,700 | cliffnotes it didn't work for you in school when each study the cliffnotes and you didn't get a high score. You have to read the book, right? Okay, so here's |
| 233 | 00:44:26,700 --> 00:44:36,390 | what it is inside this run from the midpoint of this lake higher and lower. Okay, that's the that's the price like that. We're looking at why this price leg |
| 234 | 00:44:36,390 --> 00:44:45,810 | because it took out this short term low on that candle. It's a shift in market structure bearish lower prices are expected. We do not look at any rally up as a |
| 235 | 00:44:45,810 --> 00:44:54,630 | sustainable run. Why because stops have already been taken above this high here. Then there's a shift in market structure below that low. That means that any |
| 236 | 00:44:54,630 --> 00:45:06,090 | rally prior some starting up prior for after, you know establishing the The point here, once it goes above that, in my mind, I'm thinking we're only going |
| 237 | 00:45:06,120 --> 00:45:19,560 | up to go down. So algorithmically, the market will pre print and produce a premium market. A premium market is where you want to sell your long positions |
| 238 | 00:45:19,560 --> 00:45:32,220 | and as partials or enter your short positions, when the markets rallying, that's where you want to short. You don't want to sell in down candles, that's chasing |
| 239 | 00:45:32,220 --> 00:45:42,060 | price. When you see me doing my partials are not my position. When I'm pyramiding into a position. I'm selling short in the UP candle. And then I'm |
| 240 | 00:45:42,060 --> 00:45:51,870 | adding more as the candles are going up into that move. I'm not fearful that when I first started, I was absolutely afraid of that. I was scared. I was |
| 241 | 00:45:51,870 --> 00:46:02,100 | afraid what I was buying was a rocket. And I didn't want to get stung or to get I didn't want to hurt. More specifically, I didn't want to be wrong, I didn't |
| 242 | 00:46:02,100 --> 00:46:12,450 | care about the money. I didn't want to be wrong, I want to be right. And being right is not essential to profitability. It sounds like it's a it's an |
| 243 | 00:46:12,450 --> 00:46:23,970 | impossibility. Because you can be you can be right and lose money. You can be wrong and make money. So you have to do many times what seems like is the most |
| 244 | 00:46:26,490 --> 00:46:36,660 | proper way of doing it, most intuitive thing isn't this, this time, not the correct thing to do and trading. When the markets been going down. Everybody |
| 245 | 00:46:36,660 --> 00:46:46,470 | thinks what well is going down. So let me get short. They chase it. And I was a victim of that when I first started. So that's the reason why I teach the pdra |
| 246 | 00:46:46,470 --> 00:46:55,350 | matrix that way you can frame a price leg as we're doing here, the high to that low. Why am I specifically aiming for this price? Like why am I only looking at |
| 247 | 00:46:55,350 --> 00:47:03,000 | this one? And why am I looking at this one, because this one here didn't do any kind of a short term price run where it created a swing low like this one does |
| 248 | 00:47:03,000 --> 00:47:14,640 | here. It rallies up and then overlaps that entire run and breaks it there on that candle. Once that occurs. As soon as that happens. I'm waiting for price to |
| 249 | 00:47:14,640 --> 00:47:23,910 | make a turn and start going back up. Well, what happens here ICT didn't go above the equilibrium price went here? No, because this level isn't the equilibrium |
| 250 | 00:47:24,240 --> 00:47:37,740 | until this low. So if we're looking at this here did that? Did that trade meaningfully above the 50%? Level? No. Even if it poked its head above that, did |
| 251 | 00:47:37,740 --> 00:47:52,500 | it trade to a fair Baghdad that will be inside that price? Like from here to here? Now, so look closer, you have this price run down, we're waiting for price |
| 252 | 00:47:52,500 --> 00:48:03,240 | to go back above equilibrium, which is the 50% level on your fib. That's There's no mystery to it. Okay? This is this is the only benefit of having a Fibonacci |
| 253 | 00:48:03,240 --> 00:48:10,770 | in my mind that in how I use it for targeting. And I'll show you that stuff. And you've probably seen many times I've been doing it in my live executions and |
| 254 | 00:48:11,130 --> 00:48:21,300 | manage the position and trailing stop looking for targets to be hit and such. But this run above equilibrium within this price leg here that sets the stage. |
| 255 | 00:48:21,420 --> 00:48:24,570 | Okay, now we are in a premium market meaning |
| 256 | 00:48:32,610 --> 00:48:47,940 | this range is premium. It's in other words, overbought, I don't need an indicator, you don't need an indicator to derive that. From this point here to |
| 257 | 00:48:47,940 --> 00:49:02,340 | hear this discount as soon as we leave. And again, this is again, not in the folks that try to teach my stuff. They don't know what they're doing. And I'm |
| 258 | 00:49:02,340 --> 00:49:10,350 | asking you, please stop trying to teach my stuff because you don't know what you're doing. You're not covering things that are most salient, and you're |
| 259 | 00:49:10,620 --> 00:49:19,050 | oblivious to the things that are necessary for certain things to be really in the marketplace. This discount |
| 260 | 00:49:25,440 --> 00:49:40,860 | Okay, in the red shaded area, above this level here, that's a premium above it or at that level. They're your ideal shorts. As soon as you cross the midpoint |
| 261 | 00:49:42,270 --> 00:49:45,960 | of the discount level here. Once we get through that |
| 262 | 00:50:09,059 --> 00:50:21,509 | The Bible is pretty good. Once you get through that they're the highest form of profitable shorts, the highest probability short entries. They have now been |
| 263 | 00:50:21,509 --> 00:50:34,589 | exhausted. The only thing you want to be focusing on now is taking partials and trailing your stop. Yes, that's a diamond. You just simply can't just take every |
| 264 | 00:50:34,589 --> 00:50:43,979 | single trade and enter and enter and enter, enter. When do I stop taking partials for permitting? Something like this. Now, I'll build pyramid ng entries |
| 265 | 00:50:44,009 --> 00:50:56,609 | all in this until we get through here. And then I stopped taking pyramid entries. Go back and look at my examples. You'll see that's true. So when I want |
| 266 | 00:50:56,609 --> 00:51:07,409 | to learn how to pyramid and build my positions large, I learned it incorrectly from Ken Roberts Raghava book, the world's most powerful money manual, of |
| 267 | 00:51:07,409 --> 00:51:17,999 | course. So long title for something that was useless like toilet paper. But I guess toilet paper is useful. But use toilet paper, I suppose that the the idea |
| 268 | 00:51:17,999 --> 00:51:30,359 | of looking for the best entry points, the highest probability, and how the market will respect those levels more so than others. See, once we leave the |
| 269 | 00:51:30,359 --> 00:51:42,509 | midpoint of that discount range of this price run here to here. And we're in the lower portion of it, we're entering that expansion phase, that expansion phase |
| 270 | 00:51:42,509 --> 00:51:55,319 | is likely to not offer very many if at all, new high probability pyramid entries to to add to a position. So there's a threshold at which I will no longer add to |
| 271 | 00:51:55,319 --> 00:52:05,399 | new existing positions. But while I'm on that premium area, within that price leg within the market structure I'm looking for, as I just outlined here, and |
| 272 | 00:52:05,399 --> 00:52:16,319 | again, you're gonna want to watch this portion of the video several times. It gives you the highest degree of probability for delivery from your entry to your |
| 273 | 00:52:16,319 --> 00:52:26,309 | targets. And you don't want to chase the move and build in more position, once it breaks through the threshold that is outlined here. Because to do so number |
| 274 | 00:52:26,309 --> 00:52:35,039 | one, you're going to be worrying about trying to put on an opposition versus taking off some as it moves in your favor. It's crucial in the beginning for you |
| 275 | 00:52:35,039 --> 00:52:41,549 | to do those types of things. Now, for someone that's seasoned, they've been around for a long time, you know what you're doing, you know how to profit, you |
| 276 | 00:52:41,549 --> 00:52:49,709 | know, targets, your targets are not unrealistic. And you can go to full terminus, that means your full target, where you aimed for when you first got on |
| 277 | 00:52:49,709 --> 00:52:56,639 | the trade in the beginning, and this is who I'm talking to right now, when I'm doing these live streams, and I'm talking to you, the students that are here |
| 278 | 00:52:56,639 --> 00:53:04,439 | listening, I'm not talking to the guy that's been doing it for five years, and he's funded and he's got new profitability, you can glean what you want to glean |
| 279 | 00:53:04,439 --> 00:53:12,869 | from what I'm teaching. But it's the folks that are brand new, they have no idea where to go, they have no idea what to do with this information, how to use it, |
| 280 | 00:53:12,869 --> 00:53:22,679 | how to frame the logic, what roles do you follow? What do I do, what do I don't do, that's what I'm trying to accomplish with these lectures and obviously with |
| 281 | 00:53:22,679 --> 00:53:34,499 | the live streams so once the market starts to draw back up into this premium area, we have to go through our timeframes and look for fair Vega So right away |
| 282 | 00:53:34,499 --> 00:53:48,119 | we have this low to high let's go back in with the Fed. So we have to go into a fair value gap that or above equilibrium. So from this point on up, we can look |
| 283 | 00:53:48,119 --> 00:54:01,409 | for what a fair value is this a fair value gap? Yes. What if you sold short there? Would it be profitable? Yes. Where would you stop need to be here it |
| 284 | 00:54:01,409 --> 00:54:09,329 | needs to be at the high. That's a lot. That's a lot of that's a lot of range. But I don't want to have a stop loss like that. Okay, that you're gonna have to |
| 285 | 00:54:09,329 --> 00:54:25,979 | be more selective with your entries then now look closer, inside this price like here. This is why I'm not supplying to me and also what is this? What's that? |
| 286 | 00:54:27,089 --> 00:54:39,899 | What's the separation between this candles close and this candles opening? Volume imbalance. The volume imbalance has no body between too close and or |
| 287 | 00:54:39,899 --> 00:54:51,719 | opening prices. So it can be a volume imbalance between a higher close and a lower opening. Or it could be a difference between a close with a higher |
| 288 | 00:54:51,719 --> 00:55:03,659 | opening. That's the difference between the two potential volume and balances. The wicks overlap see how have small little wicker here. Let me see if I can I |
| 289 | 00:55:03,659 --> 00:55:17,729 | can do that here. I know there's probably a shortcut to do this. And you guys are saying if you would just do this ICT there's a small little wick here, and a |
| 290 | 00:55:17,729 --> 00:55:26,369 | small little wick right here. Whenever I'm looking at price, I'm looking for those types of things. Because that's a signature. That's a little that's a |
| 291 | 00:55:26,369 --> 00:55:33,059 | little glitch in the Matrix. Think of it like that. So if you take that |
| 292 | 00:55:39,000 --> 00:55:49,980 | draw it through, because we cut through candles, Sam, we're not supplying to man around here. If you cut through all this drop, as it's retracing back up, what's |
| 293 | 00:55:49,980 --> 00:55:59,520 | it reaching for? It is reaching for an imbalance in here. Yes, there's one here with this candle. There's one here between this candles low and this candles |
| 294 | 00:55:59,520 --> 00:56:11,430 | high. And then we have one here to here specifically with that candle. Which one is better? Yes, you can enter here and have a stoploss up here. But look closer, |
| 295 | 00:56:12,030 --> 00:56:24,570 | in this delivery higher when it ran higher. What is this last up close candle anyway? It's a bearish order block. Why is it a bearish order block? Because it |
| 296 | 00:56:24,570 --> 00:56:42,420 | has a fair value gap. opening price on this candle is what? You're gonna look right here. The opening price on this candle is 41 30.00. Okay, what's the high |
| 297 | 00:56:42,420 --> 00:56:56,730 | on this candle here? You're looking right here. The high of that candle is 41, three 0.00. You cannot improve on perfection. That's algorithmic. What's the |
| 298 | 00:56:56,730 --> 00:57:12,900 | high on the next candle here? 41 30.00. Again, not one tick off, not one tick over not want to short. So if you had a series of fair value gaps, which one do |
| 299 | 00:57:12,900 --> 00:57:27,300 | you look to trade to or use your entry app, look for the bearish order block, look for a volume imbalance or a fair value gap on the other side of the drop. |
| 300 | 00:57:27,690 --> 00:57:40,050 | You extend it through again we cut through candles, you can't. I'm trying to not trying to be so dogmatic in livestreams. And I'm trying to control myself |
| 301 | 00:57:40,050 --> 00:57:48,270 | because I will literally go into a Twitter rant and just not be as productive as I'm trying to be. There are certain things you have to look for. And I can't |
| 302 | 00:57:48,270 --> 00:57:57,750 | teach you every possible scenario that's available in the future, because it's better to see it live explaining it a lot, then you're looking at this thing. |
| 303 | 00:57:57,750 --> 00:58:06,960 | Well, that's not it's not live, it's already happened. I understand that. But I'm showing you the logic that one would use to get to the delivery on this |
| 304 | 00:58:06,960 --> 00:58:22,920 | setup, which is exactly out of the 2022 model that was shown to you last year. So with that volume of balance, and the fact that it's above equilibrium on that |
| 305 | 00:58:22,920 --> 00:58:33,600 | price leg right here. So the first one you come to you, you could go short there and your risk would be that high trading this one with the volume imbalance and |
| 306 | 00:58:33,600 --> 00:58:42,030 | the fair value gap. And now watch what's the half of this up close candle remember that was what's the half of an order block. It's not consequent |
| 307 | 00:58:42,030 --> 00:58:53,730 | encouragement, consummate encouragement is any inefficiency. The fear of a gap is unbalanced inefficiency. Those are constant encouragement midpoints. A candle |
| 308 | 00:58:53,760 --> 00:59:10,320 | a range a specific candle that's been delivered in price, the midpoint of that is mean threshold LOW to HIGH is 4131 and a half. So if you were taking this |
| 309 | 00:59:10,320 --> 00:59:22,290 | fair value gap joining it with the volume imbalance and it's a bearish order block price should not do what it should not treat above the midpoint of that up |
| 310 | 00:59:22,290 --> 00:59:35,130 | close candle. So your stock could be at 4132 4132 So I mean do you have a to handle or two points stop loss entering within this volume and balance within |
| 311 | 00:59:35,130 --> 00:59:36,240 | this fair value gap |
| 312 | 00:59:46,739 --> 00:59:57,779 | and as some of your new had no idea that this stuff is repeating like this and I walked you through an example something like this in the stock indices last |
| 313 | 00:59:57,779 --> 01:00:07,889 | week, I said you know, I want to use a fair bit He go for a resistance level. And it stopped dead in his tracks just like this, the that here, and I executed |
| 314 | 01:00:07,889 --> 01:00:17,609 | on it, showed it to you. So it's not cherry picking. It's not you looking at hindsight only you have to study hindsight. Every trader is making money right |
| 315 | 01:00:17,609 --> 01:00:27,179 | now that's profitable. They learned by studying hindsight, you have to understand what the concept looks like you have to identify it. And that way by |
| 316 | 01:00:27,179 --> 01:00:37,649 | seeing like when you go out and learn how to hunt and track your prey, you spend a lot of time looking at tracks, though this is a bear, this is a elk. This is a |
| 317 | 01:00:37,679 --> 01:00:48,209 | deer. And that's the only way you can identify what it looks like because you have to see it in the history, where has it been shown before. But once you |
| 318 | 01:00:48,209 --> 01:01:01,049 | understand the basics of the pattern, the setups, the primary framework, then it must be studied on real time data. And it doesn't mean studying by pushing a |
| 319 | 01:01:01,049 --> 01:01:10,829 | demo account or studying with a live account, you do not learn anything correctly. By doing that there's a step in between that everybody skips over |
| 320 | 01:01:10,829 --> 01:01:21,659 | because they're in a hurry to be profitable. Versus I want to take my time and be systematic. I want to know that I'm doing what I'm supposed to be doing, and |
| 321 | 01:01:21,659 --> 01:01:29,729 | avoiding the things and not being influenced emotionally, psychologically, because of the money. Because as soon as you put a trade on, you're worrying |
| 322 | 01:01:29,729 --> 01:01:46,259 | about the p&l that trade. You're not worrying about the price action, your mind shifts from managing the risk and managing the trade. Versus now I hope I don't |
| 323 | 01:01:46,259 --> 01:01:53,429 | lose is this thing going to turn around and go after my stop. And it may not even be close to your stuff. But most of the time it will be because you're in a |
| 324 | 01:01:53,429 --> 01:02:04,169 | hurry to do what jam your stop loss up. And that's not what a profitable trader does. Profitable traders aren't in a hurry to race, their stop loss to break |
| 325 | 01:02:04,169 --> 01:02:13,019 | even they're not they're not concerned about that. Why because they've been here before. They know that even if this trade fails, it's not going to end their |
| 326 | 01:02:13,019 --> 01:02:21,959 | career, it doesn't undo the the efficacy of their model or their approach to trading. It just means that that was one human transaction that they made. They |
| 327 | 01:02:21,959 --> 01:02:31,199 | placed risk behind it and it was wrong. And it didn't deliver a favorable outcome. But you can still learn from that. And it doesn't unsettle you, as a |
| 328 | 01:02:31,229 --> 01:02:39,479 | profitable trader, that you don't you don't say I'm going to change what I'm doing. I'm gonna change my approach to trading because I had a losing trade. Now |
| 329 | 01:02:39,479 --> 01:02:46,679 | in the beginning, that's exactly what you're going to want to do. So did you try to learn from me or learn from someone else, and you suffer a losing trade, the |
| 330 | 01:02:46,679 --> 01:02:56,129 | first thing you're thinking is, okay, this doesn't work, let me do something else. And I did that I did that for years. And I had a winning model. But I kept |
| 331 | 01:02:56,129 --> 01:03:08,339 | tinkering around with it until I realized I was holding myself back. So that's how we go through the process of looking for the right fair value gap. Now if |
| 332 | 01:03:08,339 --> 01:03:18,299 | there's no volume of balance, or if there's no fair value gap here on the other side of the displacement leg, then I'll use the first fair value gap above the |
| 333 | 01:03:18,299 --> 01:03:31,739 | equilibrium. And then there it is. Now another version of this would be using this. And I usually do this, if I'm going to be building a large position. Like |
| 334 | 01:03:31,739 --> 01:03:40,739 | if I know I'm going to be building a large pyramid position, I'll use this run up where it takes right before it drops down and takes a shift in market |
| 335 | 01:03:40,739 --> 01:03:53,039 | structure. So this is the displacement leg. Okay, this leg here, you split that in half, you use any fair value got, I'm sorry, fair value get at this level as |
| 336 | 01:03:53,039 --> 01:04:01,049 | yourself. So I looked at it we just talked about there. Let me finish this thought here. And and I'm talking about this well in advance, I mentioned this, |
| 337 | 01:04:01,049 --> 01:04:10,919 | like here to here, if we had no volume imbalance if that wasn't there, I would take this love to that high that equilibrium there. Drag that through, this |
| 338 | 01:04:10,919 --> 01:04:18,809 | would be the fear that I get at that moment. So then I would be doing this again, this is assuming that there's no volume and balance. My entry would be |
| 339 | 01:04:18,809 --> 01:04:29,039 | here and framed on this fair pay gap there. Show me how to pick the right fair value got. I just did. Did you write it down? Did you record it and you're |
| 340 | 01:04:29,039 --> 01:04:41,579 | involved in the journal it? No, you you're watching it like Netflix and you're gonna never learn. So there's the there's the logic. Okay, and here's the sell |
| 341 | 01:04:41,579 --> 01:04:47,639 | side. Now let me take your attention right back down into here because I told you watch this volume and balance. You know when there's cherry picking events. |
| 342 | 01:04:49,409 --> 01:05:04,829 | If you ever hear the separation between the candles close, and the candles opening, you want to get real get used to doing that in your charts. When you |
| 343 | 01:05:04,829 --> 01:05:17,699 | see that your eyes gonna jump to it. Do you see it here? See that right there? That's a volume imbalance. That's a glitch in the matrix. Okay? They're coded. |
| 344 | 01:05:17,939 --> 01:05:39,839 | They're there for a reason. Right there. See it? Just like it was here. And there's one here. There's one right there. So when I look at price, my eyes jump |
| 345 | 01:05:39,839 --> 01:05:53,099 | to fair value gaps, swing highs and swing lows, volume and balances. That's, that's just where my eye goes. Okay. Here, think about what I was talking about |
| 346 | 01:05:53,099 --> 01:06:04,439 | before we dropped down into the sell side. I said, Watch this when it was trading up into here. So watch this volume imbalance from this point here to |
| 347 | 01:06:04,439 --> 01:06:07,049 | that low, what is that? |
| 348 | 01:06:12,210 --> 01:06:24,150 | It's a PD array. It's an area where you expect price to React, React, how I framed all this here. But before I went on to this business up here, I said, |
| 349 | 01:06:24,540 --> 01:06:32,850 | Watch that low. I believe we're going down below that. Now, I already know some of the sceptics. I mean, skeptics in the audience are sitting here thinking, Oh, |
| 350 | 01:06:32,850 --> 01:06:43,950 | no big deal. You know, it was this big run, I have hundreds of trades where I'm doing 100 handles or more, you can use the same logic to do those trades to I am |
| 351 | 01:06:43,950 --> 01:06:54,780 | teaching you this year how to do a five handle run as a starting point. That is not to say that your entire career must only be on the basis of a five handle |
| 352 | 01:06:54,780 --> 01:07:05,190 | price. It's to get someone that has never traded a low hanging fruit objective. And I don't think there's anything wrong with that. Because if anybody in here |
| 353 | 01:07:05,190 --> 01:07:14,730 | is an educator or teacher, they have a first threshold objective, something that they teach their students to aim for, I'm just electing to, say, five handles in |
| 354 | 01:07:14,730 --> 01:07:23,370 | the s&p market. When you're paper trading, and you're demonstrating and your tape reading, if you're looking for that, number one, if that's all you ever get |
| 355 | 01:07:23,400 --> 01:07:36,210 | to be consistent with, that's enough, it's absolutely enough. You can take that same little cookie cutter approach of five handles and put money manage behind |
| 356 | 01:07:36,210 --> 01:07:48,360 | that money management behind something that is defective, could produce many, many five handle moves over and over and over again. And it compounds and use |
| 357 | 01:07:48,360 --> 01:08:02,520 | the power of compound interest to do the heavy lifting through money management, you're not risking more, you would be a guest risking more comparatively from |
| 358 | 01:08:02,520 --> 01:08:10,620 | where you first started as as your equity base when you first start trading versus five years in the trading. Your risk isn't any larger percentage wise. |
| 359 | 01:08:11,130 --> 01:08:23,460 | It's a fixed rate of percentage risk. That increases monetarily, but never percentage wise. So the heavy lifting is done by money management, not the |
| 360 | 01:08:23,460 --> 01:08:35,610 | bigger positions coming in, I can do that. I can do heavy handed trades. But a learning student first introduction to trading first introduction to what I'm |
| 361 | 01:08:35,610 --> 01:08:47,190 | trying to teach. It would not be efficient for me as a mentor to try to waste my time trying to build you up to try to do these big heavy handed trades and |
| 362 | 01:08:47,190 --> 01:08:55,080 | beginning when you don't even know how to read price. So the way you learn how to read price and you feel rewarded, because it's more frequently you'll see a |
| 363 | 01:08:55,080 --> 01:09:09,000 | five handle move than 100 Handelman there's many five handle runs intraday. versus how many one hand 100 handle runs is happening intraday in one sustain |
| 364 | 01:09:09,000 --> 01:09:18,900 | run, it's not happening often right? So by framing the logic like this, this is where the stops are what kind of stop there sell stop. So that makes it sell |
| 365 | 01:09:18,900 --> 01:09:28,320 | side liquidity, the markets going down up here. So where would it go down to here? Why? Because smart money and the algorithms that are in the marketplace. |
| 366 | 01:09:28,710 --> 01:09:39,600 | They engage these levels here. So what's above that buy side liquidity in short, it's what buy stops. So what happens is the buy stocks get tripped in here. |
| 367 | 01:09:41,340 --> 01:09:53,730 | Smart Money traders like myself and who I'm teaching my students to be they will accumulate short positions against these buy stops with the expectation that |
| 368 | 01:09:53,730 --> 01:10:07,170 | they will ride price lower. To that to this low Why is it advantageous, because below this low is sellside liquidity for anyone that has been long here and |
| 369 | 01:10:07,170 --> 01:10:15,660 | wrote it up. I'm not saying that there aren't traders up here, trading without a stop loss or trailing their stop loss up tighten had been knocked out. That's |
| 370 | 01:10:15,660 --> 01:10:25,560 | not what I'm saying. algorithmically, the market will remember and refer back to that low. It does not know how many stocks are actually below the low, it |
| 371 | 01:10:25,560 --> 01:10:34,890 | doesn't need to know that. It just needs to reprice at that level, then the people that are in the marketplace, quote, unquote, smart money, the composite |
| 372 | 01:10:34,890 --> 01:10:49,650 | man, they will use that liquidity as a counter to their shorting against the buy stops up here. So basically, it's a game of tag, tag, you're it by stops, or it. |
| 373 | 01:10:49,890 --> 01:11:03,300 | Okay, so now who's next sell side Tag, you're it down here. So in essence, Smart Money, sells to buy stops with the expectation that they're going to run lower |
| 374 | 01:11:03,300 --> 01:11:16,170 | in price, and then buy sell stops. Now you don't learn that in books, you think, buy down here support, sell up here, resistance, and I take my students |
| 375 | 01:11:16,200 --> 01:11:24,900 | understanding about the marketplace and turn it upside down. Because inside the upside down, is the clarity that you're looking for. The frustration is |
| 376 | 01:11:24,930 --> 01:11:39,900 | immediately removed. So now let's go back the volume and bounce I mentioned live food for it actually delivered to you. Inside this area, if if we had already |
| 377 | 01:11:39,900 --> 01:11:48,720 | moved so far away here, I would use as an entry. Why wouldn't you take that as an entry? If you knew and you said it was a volume imbalance cycle? You said |
| 378 | 01:11:48,720 --> 01:11:56,460 | there was a sell side liquidity, you said it was going to likely go down there? Why didn't you take this as a trade? Why wouldn't I take that as a trade because |
| 379 | 01:11:56,460 --> 01:12:07,830 | of what I've outlined up here in reference to the premium and discount range, once we leave, if we're bearish. Once we break through the midpoint of discount, |
| 380 | 01:12:08,250 --> 01:12:20,700 | I cannot take another new entry. You can I'm not, I'm managing now. I'm managing my core position. That's it, it's over. This becomes a point of interest where |
| 381 | 01:12:20,700 --> 01:12:28,800 | I'm gonna see the trade be managed with it, I am not going to put my stop loss below that volume imbalance I'm not going to trail it down here. If I see that |
| 382 | 01:12:28,890 --> 01:12:38,460 | volume imbalance, as I mentioned real time said watch that area. My stock could be above this high. It could be at the middle of this up close candle mean |
| 383 | 01:12:38,460 --> 01:12:46,470 | threshold because it shouldn't go there. Why? Because I'm expecting this volume and bounce this keep price from wanting the rally all that why? Why would I |
| 384 | 01:12:46,470 --> 01:13:00,780 | expect that? You see this opening here. We rally up. We dropped down all this range between from the low and the high. That range has already been delivered |
| 385 | 01:13:00,780 --> 01:13:13,920 | to this low. So 4118. The next candle here we open, we dropped down and we roll right back over top of 4118. So we had one two times between this candles high |
| 386 | 01:13:13,950 --> 01:13:16,920 | in this candles low this entire range |
| 387 | 01:13:23,010 --> 01:13:35,910 | Oh, you're learning today. school is in session of ICT. So inside that range, this is now balanced. Because we've had delivery to the downside. We came off of |
| 388 | 01:13:35,910 --> 01:13:48,540 | it. We went down through it again. And then we left what a volume imbalance. So it's highly, highly unlikely that the market's going to do what think. What do |
| 389 | 01:13:48,540 --> 01:13:52,800 | you see in here? I've been reading I've been recently teaching a lot about it |
| 390 | 01:13:58,410 --> 01:14:12,450 | that low to that high? What's that price? That's consequent encroachment. Wait a minute. You said that's for gaps and fair value gaps? Yes. A wick is a gap to |
| 391 | 01:14:12,600 --> 01:14:21,870 | algorithm, they view a wick as a gap. The point of that is consequent crushing, what price is that? 4119 and a quarter so my stop would have to be above that. |
| 392 | 01:14:23,460 --> 01:14:36,060 | Trusting that it would not go above that. That stop management. That's how you understand what you're looking for. And we got about 11 minutes almost for the |
| 393 | 01:14:36,060 --> 01:14:46,680 | market opens up. So in this area here that volume and bounce will simply just be a measure of me managing a position that's open until we get down to here and we |
| 394 | 01:14:46,680 --> 01:14:59,100 | can take partials okay. Just want to have a second to go back over to the dollar index. Just give me a second please |
| 395 | 01:15:16,830 --> 01:15:27,630 | Okay, yeah, see how we went into this area here? I mentioned that that smaller portion of price went right up into it there. So now this is important because |
| 396 | 01:15:27,690 --> 01:15:39,570 | we have technically fulfilled the repricing of this down close candles. So this city, which is a fair value, gap, sell side imbalance by side inefficiency, it |
| 397 | 01:15:39,570 --> 01:15:49,470 | offered the range on the downside. So to reprice, that is going to be delivered on the upside, which is what we have here. But now, because we've hit that, and |
| 398 | 01:15:49,470 --> 01:16:01,470 | we're going into what the opening in New York 930, we have to demand a whole lot from price action, because it's already delivered enough to cause us to go into |
| 399 | 01:16:01,500 --> 01:16:12,210 | consolidation. We don't know with any great degree of certainty now, if it's going to rally higher, or if it's going to decline lower. So how would I use |
| 400 | 01:16:12,210 --> 01:16:24,600 | that on a day like today? I would probably trade, specifically, the afternoon session. I would let the st money wrestle with the strong money, smart money in |
| 401 | 01:16:24,600 --> 01:16:33,600 | the morning session. It doesn't mean I'm going to turn off the livestream, it just means that I'm not likely to see a setup because of this condition here. |
| 402 | 01:16:34,290 --> 01:16:48,600 | We've arrived at a level I mentioned that would be likely possible, but it doesn't really give us much did offer what weaker. s&p Did we have weaker s&p? |
| 403 | 01:16:52,830 --> 01:17:04,950 | Did you see a signal form? No. Did you see me outline a signature in price this should offer what response and price? The bias is what? On s&p Lower? Where was |
| 404 | 01:17:04,950 --> 01:17:18,420 | it likely to go to from this volume imbalance to this low and underneath it? Why? Because everything I've outlined here? Did it move five handles? From 4118 |
| 405 | 01:17:19,350 --> 01:17:31,650 | to 4113? Is that not five handles. You want to screenshot this, you want to save this and in all these open areas in your chart. If your screenshot in mind, you |
| 406 | 01:17:31,650 --> 01:17:38,520 | want to fill this up with things that you've observed what you've heard me say today. Because chances are I'm probably not going to remember everything I said |
| 407 | 01:17:39,000 --> 01:17:50,340 | and add it to the annotations I'm using. Because out. I'll save these charts and log them on my trading View Profile. I don't know how I don't know how to share |
| 408 | 01:17:50,340 --> 01:17:59,940 | them. So I'll have to figure that out later tonight. But I think if you follow me on trading view, you should be able to see anything I publish, I'm assuming I |
| 409 | 01:17:59,940 --> 01:18:13,980 | don't know for certain. So please don't hold me to that. So that's model 2022. Last year's teaching right here in price action and the logic of how to know |
| 410 | 01:18:14,550 --> 01:18:22,800 | that the market is likely to be bearish or bullish. I've walked you through that this morning. How do you get a bias How do you look for risk on risk off real |
| 411 | 01:18:22,800 --> 01:18:32,970 | quick in your notes risk one is when the dollar is dropping are likely to go lower. That means that you have foreign currency likely to go higher. In that |
| 412 | 01:18:32,970 --> 01:18:43,440 | instance, you have stocks that are likely to go higher and an index futures are likely to go higher. If you have risk on I just got confused here. Let me say it |
| 413 | 01:18:43,440 --> 01:18:58,680 | again without all the mumbo jumbo dollar lower allows s&p and forex to go higher. Dollar higher puts pressure on s&p stocks, index futures and forex and |
| 414 | 01:18:58,680 --> 01:19:09,090 | it's likely to see them go lower. So it's like a teeter totter if dollars up, are going up or likely to go up. That means it's risk off all other assets are |
| 415 | 01:19:09,090 --> 01:19:20,490 | likely to go lower or have difficulty going higher. If dollars going lower that means it's going to be easy for buy signals in s&p and in futures and or Forex |
| 416 | 01:19:20,550 --> 01:19:41,220 | to go higher. So if we look at the senior chart if we look at the Euro real quick remember we were digging down deeper into that if we look at the five |
| 417 | 01:19:41,220 --> 01:19:42,270 | minute chart on Euro |
| 418 | 01:19:50,310 --> 01:20:05,910 | Vega softer the cake real quick and then I can hear the guys it's been trading for a while. Dude honor this, I understand you might know there's a lot of |
| 419 | 01:20:05,910 --> 01:20:18,690 | people that are here that don't cables is ugly, we did have software, but there's nothing here I would have traded on. In fact, I probably would have been |
| 420 | 01:20:18,690 --> 01:20:31,380 | stopped out with this room here I would have been, I would have used this right here, I would have went short on that one, and my stop would have been hit |
| 421 | 01:20:31,380 --> 01:20:49,050 | there. So there's some reality for you. And gold real quick. And when I said last week about gold, it's pretty well dropped when |
| 422 | 01:20:55,050 --> 01:21:07,950 | watch this level here on this waterblock. There might be a level of watch, if we break through the middle of this candle here. So you do your own mean threshold |
| 423 | 01:21:07,950 --> 01:21:20,010 | measurement there. If we break through that, on the downside on a closing basis, we're going into this area here with sellside. Otherwise, we might want to drag |
| 424 | 01:21:20,010 --> 01:21:33,090 | up into this down close candle. Because we have a candle high and can low Sibi. So they might want to reach back up into this V Ray gap in act as resistance and |
| 425 | 01:21:33,090 --> 01:21:44,100 | then maybe go softer, especially if we continuously see what dollar going higher, which is why you saw weakness and why the gold market dropped like it |
| 426 | 01:21:44,100 --> 01:21:50,820 | did. It's not surprised when you start looking at it from a macro stance. So whenever we sit down on the weekend, or we go through our analysis in the |
| 427 | 01:21:50,820 --> 01:21:59,400 | morning, I always revisit my macro analysis because it's easy to see something on a lower timeframe chart and think Oh, yes, is that the same thing I saw when |
| 428 | 01:21:59,400 --> 01:22:11,400 | I was 22 as a trader, and I did really well with it. Because you can't do that, you got to take it back to the core macro analysis. And yes, I can trade against |
| 429 | 01:22:11,490 --> 01:22:20,730 | core macro analysis. But in the beginning, you shouldn't be trying to do that. Because it will help frame experience and provide you a means of measuring |
| 430 | 01:22:20,760 --> 01:22:30,000 | progress. Because you're continuously doing the same things and getting progressively better at doing it versus insanity, which is doing the same thing |
| 431 | 01:22:30,000 --> 01:22:37,860 | over and over again, which is jumping from method jumping from model jumping from educator jumping from market to market, different timeframes, different |
| 432 | 01:22:37,860 --> 01:22:54,090 | style of trading, that's insanity. So you have to give yourself a chance really to do well. Alright, so we're a couple minutes away from the open. Now you can |
| 433 | 01:22:54,090 --> 01:23:02,700 | see this, we have a gap here. Would you take that? No. Why? Because we've already moved a lot. And we weren't, we've already tapped into sell side. So |
| 434 | 01:23:02,730 --> 01:23:11,460 | what could happen at the open, we could start to sell off a little bit. Get everybody thinking, Okay, it's been going down, it's going to keep going down. |
| 435 | 01:23:11,460 --> 01:23:21,690 | So they'll dogpiling going short. And then they'll rip it up of this volume and bounce. This here is the only exposed area I see in price with the exception of |
| 436 | 01:23:21,690 --> 01:23:32,820 | this one, why there's no overlap between the candle before this one with this candle in this candle between their respective highs and lows meaning this here |
| 437 | 01:23:33,450 --> 01:23:44,520 | and here, if you take that there. So that is a city, it is a fair value by classification. But specifically it is a assault on a balanced by Southern |
| 438 | 01:23:44,520 --> 01:23:55,710 | efficiency. So within this run from here to here, that is above equilibrium. I'm not stating that this is what's going to happen, folks be mindful that there's |
| 439 | 01:23:55,710 --> 01:24:01,830 | something you're like, okay, and he's telling us as a bike. I'm not saying that at all. I'm answering questions, you're probably seeing this fear vague. What |
| 440 | 01:24:01,830 --> 01:24:12,270 | would you do with it? I would do nothing with it. I would watch. Why, why are we why are we watching price right now? Because it's already fulfilled several |
| 441 | 01:24:12,270 --> 01:24:23,550 | things on dollar. And it's already fulfilled a run on liquidity here ahead of 930. If this would have been trading up here, still, I'd say okay, I'm looking |
| 442 | 01:24:23,550 --> 01:24:34,170 | for a short and I'm going to target that low. But because we already broke down the model that I taught last year has already delivered. So since it's already |
| 443 | 01:24:34,170 --> 01:24:42,270 | delivered without expect reasonably, so you have to be careful. So anything here that we would get from this very, very good. I mentioned we could take that that |
| 444 | 01:24:42,270 --> 01:24:53,760 | low, entice new sellers at the open and then this is electronic trading hours if you go here to regular trading hours. Right now the price is 4113 and a quarter |
| 445 | 01:24:53,760 --> 01:25:12,900 | okay. We go to regular place regular trading hours. The chart looks different, doesn't it? So we're down here in electronic trading. And we have a gap from |
| 446 | 01:25:12,900 --> 01:25:27,060 | yesterday's close to here. So now think about that. We have already tapped into sellside. Here, don't worry, I'll go back into that chart in a second. We've |
| 447 | 01:25:27,060 --> 01:25:37,620 | already traded down here, we hit it, we asked, we do have a fair value gap here. But just because it's a fair value gap doesn't mean it's a tradable entry point. |
| 448 | 01:25:38,460 --> 01:25:49,080 | It's something that we watch, just like this volume imbalance here. Okay, because we're down here at 4113 and a half in electronic trading, the markets |
| 449 | 01:25:51,180 --> 01:26:00,810 | are gonna see the market as a gap lower and st money sees, oh, it's weak, let me get short. Let me sell my stocks. And we're about 30 seconds away from the |
| 450 | 01:26:00,810 --> 01:26:13,650 | opening. So any movement lower, you're gonna chase that when we have a significant gap between where the markets view it from regular trading hours |
| 451 | 01:26:14,070 --> 01:26:22,050 | there, it's more likely that they'll want to trade back up into that range versus I would not want to chase it lower here. So not every fair value gap is |
| 452 | 01:26:22,050 --> 01:26:40,110 | an entry not every imbalance is a reason to get into the trade. Alright markets open I'd like to see it I want to see it take up that loads be honest with you |
| 453 | 01:26:40,110 --> 01:26:42,990 | first, I don't want to see it run from here I'm gonna see it take out that well |
| 454 | 01:26:58,740 --> 01:27:00,120 | man I hope my audio has been working |
| 455 | 01:27:05,850 --> 01:27:14,100 | to get that reaction off the fairway got there it was nice. That you said I didn't say anything except for just study it I don't want to I don't want to do |
| 456 | 01:27:14,100 --> 01:27:25,500 | anything with it yet. Now we've taken out the low if we can rally okay, if we can rally and I don't know for certain we're going to do it yet because it's |
| 457 | 01:27:25,500 --> 01:27:34,140 | only a couple minutes now into the new opening but if we rally above it and find some support here that's what I'm watching and observing to see if we can do |
| 458 | 01:27:34,140 --> 01:27:42,930 | that and then run up into this area here otherwise we could very well just keep on melting lower and then later in the morning going into the afternoon try to |
| 459 | 01:27:42,930 --> 01:27:45,720 | do something out of this outline in that gap from yesterday's trading |
| 460 | 01:27:58,050 --> 01:28:09,270 | okay now if we go back to regular trading hours the this is what everybody's seen the market was here and we get down oh my goodness the markets going lower. |
| 461 | 01:28:10,170 --> 01:28:28,560 | So st money's doing what Selling Selling Selling the mindful this if we do continuously drop 41 06 50 Is is something in my mind is significant because |
| 462 | 01:28:28,560 --> 01:28:30,060 | consequent encroachment of that wick |
| 463 | 01:28:40,890 --> 01:28:56,610 | let me see if I can make a visual aid here. So theoretically what I'm saying is this from the close of yesterday to the open today, this range is likely to be |
| 464 | 01:28:56,610 --> 01:29:07,020 | traded back up into so all this year and where does it take us up into that fair value gap? Which is why I mentioned it earlier |
| 465 | 01:29:13,740 --> 01:29:28,830 | so all this now has been explained why it's important to me why I'm watching it whites and not even worth mentioning. So on the downside, we had the consequent |
| 466 | 01:29:28,830 --> 01:29:40,230 | encroachment on that wick. I would have liked to see a hit that first. But if we rip from here, that's fine. And before you can get to the point where you can |
| 467 | 01:29:40,260 --> 01:29:49,770 | get in and take trades and trust what the logic is that you're trying to trade on. You have to do this part folks. And it feels like it's a waste of time. It |
| 468 | 01:29:49,770 --> 01:30:00,870 | feels like it's monotonous is it's unproductive when it's extremely productive. sitting here watching these candles form around specific times with The day, the |
| 469 | 01:30:00,870 --> 01:30:10,980 | logic behind it, why it should do certain things, why it shouldn't do certain other things is crucial. And you won't be influenced by anybody not that you |
| 470 | 01:30:10,980 --> 01:30:24,090 | should be on social media anyway. But listening to other people, if you have no business, you know, trying to find your own model, or trying to develop your own |
| 471 | 01:30:24,120 --> 01:30:30,810 | approach to dealing or you don't have the discipline to do it, you've known that enough to you would rather follow someone else that knows what they're doing, |
| 472 | 01:30:31,050 --> 01:30:40,470 | then there's nothing wrong with that. But if you're trying to learn how to do this, my opinion is, even if someone's successful, and you're following them, |
| 473 | 01:30:40,530 --> 01:30:50,130 | the only thing you're developing is codependence and I don't like that in people. Like I think independence is much stronger trait and, you know, |
| 474 | 01:30:50,880 --> 01:31:03,510 | depending upon someone else to show you their cards, but there is a market for it, there's a, there's a student base out there that's better suited for that, |
| 475 | 01:31:03,510 --> 01:31:07,650 | because they have no intent, they have no interest in learning how to trade because they knew their own limitations. |
| 476 | 01:31:21,510 --> 01:31:35,130 | So think about what has transpired here from seven o'clock. Okay, from here, down into the sell side. So it delivered a beautiful low resistance liquidity |
| 477 | 01:31:35,130 --> 01:31:49,050 | run, it was in agreement with the dollar index going higher, we had support of like the Euro wanting to go lower. Go want to go lower. So everything with a |
| 478 | 01:31:49,050 --> 01:31:53,940 | risk off scenario. Delivered price, as we see here. |
| 479 | 01:32:01,770 --> 01:32:14,400 | The better this is for your journal. The better morning sessions are if we open up with this framework, assuming, as I've outlined, if it hadn't done the drop, |
| 480 | 01:32:14,400 --> 01:32:23,730 | like say, for instance, trading, like here at 930. And we hadn't taken out that low yet. That is a real obvious easy opening session trade where that's where I |
| 481 | 01:32:23,730 --> 01:32:35,550 | would be doing it. But notice what has already happened at what at 930 right here on this candle, it had already delivered into the sell side. So in my mind, |
| 482 | 01:32:35,820 --> 01:32:47,700 | you know, my experience tells me to sit still, it's already done something. And because it's opening at 930. There's initial volatility, there's uncertainty, we |
| 483 | 01:32:47,700 --> 01:32:54,690 | don't know if it's going to run up into that red area here, I could be completely wrong. If you've just go right on through that 41 06 50 level and |
| 484 | 01:32:54,690 --> 01:33:05,280 | dollar scream higher. That's the uncertainty that's associated with this type of market structure. At the time of the 930 opening after delivery of the model |
| 485 | 01:33:05,280 --> 01:33:14,580 | that I taught you last year, everything has already transpired. So we have to sit and wait demand more information. That is never a bad thing. It's never a |
| 486 | 01:33:14,580 --> 01:33:22,200 | bad thing because trades always repeat themselves. There's more setups that it's gonna work repeating in the future, that you're going to keep yourself from |
| 487 | 01:33:22,200 --> 01:33:30,990 | being able to be a participant off by rushing in in low probability uncertain times because you're here in front of charts. So therefore you must take a |
| 488 | 01:33:30,990 --> 01:33:47,460 | trade. That's asinine that's that's gambling. What's that 41 06 50 level so here you go. You have an example of me outlining a trade that I would not take which |
| 489 | 01:33:47,460 --> 01:33:57,060 | is trading in a fair value gap. But it offer five handles you might look at that and say that was perfect. That's cherry for me. They meet every one of my |
| 490 | 01:33:57,060 --> 01:34:04,860 | criteria. Don't let me influence I'm just saying because you want to hear me tell you these things. This is what I would do. This is what I wouldn't do. This |
| 491 | 01:34:04,860 --> 01:34:18,750 | is why I wouldn't want to do it. That's mentoring. Now if we get above this fair pay gap now after this in touch support I think we could potentially run up into |
| 492 | 01:34:18,750 --> 01:34:26,190 | here I still would have favored that 41 06 50 hidden first though |
| 493 | 01:34:33,930 --> 01:34:45,420 | have drank two bottles of water so I had to relieve myself I'll be back in a second this watch and see if we get above this gap here if it acts as support. |
| 494 | 01:34:46,050 --> 01:34:47,430 | Watch to see if it delivers there. |
| 495 | 01:37:35,940 --> 01:37:46,920 | Alright, so now we have traded up through the fair value gap, no look to the left. What do we have here? One, two down close candles. |
| 496 | 01:37:52,860 --> 01:38:03,360 | midpoint of that both ranges are potentially a bullish order block, we don't know for certain it is until we displace. So I'm watching the midpoint that |
| 497 | 01:38:03,360 --> 01:38:12,240 | level, I don't want to see price go down back down below that, I would want to see it rally from here and trade up into that level here, not piercing or going |
| 498 | 01:38:12,240 --> 01:38:14,040 | below this level here. |
| 499 | 01:38:24,150 --> 01:38:31,260 | If this was a trading day, like say I wanted to take a trade, I would not use full leverage because it's going against what what's the undertone of the |
| 500 | 01:38:31,260 --> 01:38:46,230 | marketplace? Market is likely to see what higher dollar if it continues. So that's what invitation for risk off. So while the trade might be there, it very |
| 501 | 01:38:46,260 --> 01:38:59,610 | well could deliver and go up into 4121. I can't offer myself the potential of lose for risk. Like the industry says it's 2% it's too high for someone that's |
| 502 | 01:38:59,610 --> 01:39:10,530 | new 2% is too much risk. But whatever your maximum threshold for risk would be, would not be utilized on a trade like this. So like for instance, say, you see |
| 503 | 01:39:10,530 --> 01:39:26,880 | me trade with like 20 contracts, I would do like three because it's engaging price, I'm not opening myself up to larger risk against against the potential |
| 504 | 01:39:27,150 --> 01:39:39,060 | for the dollar index to rally higher which would put pressure on a long entry in forex or an index futures like this. There's a lot of managing and weighing out |
| 505 | 01:39:39,060 --> 01:39:47,520 | that has to be done. It's simply not just give me an order block give me a fair value gap. You have to measure these things out. In the your primary role as a |
| 506 | 01:39:47,520 --> 01:39:56,250 | trader is to preserve capital and manage risk. Because if you don't do those two things, it doesn't matter what pattern you learned, doesn't matter what |
| 507 | 01:39:56,250 --> 01:40:11,580 | structure or approach that you use to trade with you Don't lose. Alright, so the next point of interest we want to see it go through would be the volume and |
| 508 | 01:40:11,580 --> 01:40:24,840 | balance here. Now I would want to see if we can, if we can do it. If it can trade through the volume and bounce, I want to see it do so with speed and no |
| 509 | 01:40:24,840 --> 01:40:33,210 | respect of it. In other words, I want to see it, go through it, and not come back and touch it. Now it can go up to it, start a new candle, touch it and then |
| 510 | 01:40:33,210 --> 01:40:41,190 | expand, that's fine. I'm not looking for a type of run up, stop short of this box, and then come back down, find support and then go up to it. I don't want to |
| 511 | 01:40:41,190 --> 01:40:49,320 | see that. Why would I expect something like that? Why would I want that? Number one, because we have outlined this morning that the dollar index has been |
| 512 | 01:40:49,320 --> 01:41:00,930 | bullish, it continues, it can continue being bullish later in the morning here and completely pressure this from wanting to to go were preventing it to go |
| 513 | 01:41:00,930 --> 01:41:13,680 | higher. So you're trading right now in a what? high resistance liquidity run. It doesn't matter if it goes up here, that I don't want you thinking I was right, |
| 514 | 01:41:13,710 --> 01:41:23,100 | or we were right watching it. That's not what I'm I'm not trying to build that as the argument. What I'm saying is, is look how hard it is for price to want to |
| 515 | 01:41:23,100 --> 01:41:33,870 | get there. Under these present conditions. I'm teaching you high probability trading, but I have to teach you what high resistance liquidity runs look like. |
| 516 | 01:41:33,870 --> 01:41:42,870 | So that way you can avoid trading them or at least once you get into trading you've identified it's what it is, you can pair the risk back and not demand |
| 517 | 01:41:42,900 --> 01:41:52,860 | that it goes to your targets. Because many times in these types of conditions, I might see a potential setup, I might see a target. I've made mine available |
| 518 | 01:41:52,860 --> 01:42:00,780 | here, this is what I think is likely to occur, I'm more prone to be wrong. If you want to think about it in terms of being right or wrong, I'm more prone to |
| 519 | 01:42:00,780 --> 01:42:12,720 | be wrong and not have my trade p&l When it's under these types of conditions. Which is why I teach my students to specifically target times when the markets |
| 520 | 01:42:12,720 --> 01:42:23,490 | likely to go one direction, it's so heavy handed, it's very hard to defend, you know, to not defend to present both sides of the equation. So if you can look at |
| 521 | 01:42:23,490 --> 01:42:33,450 | a trade setup, and you can argue it from both sides of the coin, like I can see a sell here I can see a buy here, in my definition that is a low probability |
| 522 | 01:42:33,450 --> 01:42:47,040 | trade. Versus is so overwhelmingly likely to go this direction because it has all these other factors behind it. That to me is high probability. And I |
| 523 | 01:42:47,040 --> 01:42:58,530 | understand the limitations of the terminology and definition I just gave there for someone new that doesn't do justice. But for someone that has been doing |
| 524 | 01:42:58,530 --> 01:43:07,230 | this for a little bit of time, and maybe not even profitably yet, that made much more sense to that person and maybe even more for those that are profitable. You |
| 525 | 01:43:07,230 --> 01:43:15,060 | know, you know what your setups look like. And that's what I'm saying. But as a new student to the marketplace, you really don't know what your setup is because |
| 526 | 01:43:15,060 --> 01:43:20,130 | you don't even know what you're doing. You're just floundering around watching these candles in China chase the next person that's hot |
| 527 | 01:43:27,870 --> 01:43:37,680 | so in this instance late, I was unaware not that that would happen but say I was unaware that the dollar index has been trading the way it has been. Okay. Say I |
| 528 | 01:43:37,680 --> 01:43:49,050 | got myself into a trade and I discovered that I'm in a high resistance liquidity run. At this moment, I would start doing that typical. I want to see in the next |
| 529 | 01:43:49,050 --> 01:43:58,170 | two or three minutes I want to see some favorable price action. So that means I want to see it start to new trade higher take out the short term high here. At |
| 530 | 01:43:58,170 --> 01:44:07,530 | least touch the volume imbalance. So since we have the markers here on the five minute chart, we're going to start dropping down in our timeframes and you can |
| 531 | 01:44:07,530 --> 01:44:18,240 | see there's really nothing in here so a lot of chop and I'm only telling you what is likely to occur because we've already went down we took out the low we |
| 532 | 01:44:18,240 --> 01:44:27,720 | have a Von imbalance and we have a fair value gap here within within the gap that's established from yesterday's trading to today's opening |
| 533 | 01:44:34,530 --> 01:44:40,740 | for three minutes the courts here now |
| 534 | 01:44:56,010 --> 01:45:07,560 | relatively equal highs. They're very clean. I like to I idea if it can run one more time below that low, hit that 41 06 50, maybe even Pierce 41 06 50. And |
| 535 | 01:45:07,560 --> 01:45:15,870 | then if it rejects that, these levels here I have, I think are much more significant right now, it's still a lot of uncertainty there. |
| 536 | 01:45:22,710 --> 01:45:34,110 | Again, these are the conditions you get once you see the delivery of a objective on setup, again, getting back to that cell site here, because it's done. So |
| 537 | 01:45:34,110 --> 01:45:46,620 | before the 930, opening, this right here, this is exactly what makes the morning chop at the opening. This is what creates that condition all these factors |
| 538 | 01:45:46,620 --> 01:45:58,050 | together. Because it's already delivered, what will be reasonable in terms of a very high probability, low resistance liquidity run signature, it just means in |
| 539 | 01:45:58,050 --> 01:46:11,880 | plain terms, easy language, it would be the easy setup going short has already happened from over here, and it went to Target. So since it's already done, so |
| 540 | 01:46:12,120 --> 01:46:25,680 | before the markets open at 930, that means the markets going to chop around until it can establish more sentiment. Right now, in my opinion, they're trying |
| 541 | 01:46:25,680 --> 01:46:34,920 | to force the narrative that it's going to go lower. And they like to do that with presenting relatively equal highs like this. So that looks like what, oh, |
| 542 | 01:46:34,920 --> 01:46:43,020 | it stopped here, it stopped here and starts to drop down. So that means what this is resistance, right? That's what a retail trader sees. That's what St |
| 543 | 01:46:43,020 --> 01:46:57,570 | money sees what's resting above those highs right now, by side by stops. So ripping above that, and the volume imbalance, how far can it go above that into |
| 544 | 01:46:57,570 --> 01:47:11,820 | this gap here, which now is refined with this candle here. So from this candle here, in here, so we can refine it to this, it's a bit more sensitive. Because |
| 545 | 01:47:12,060 --> 01:47:20,700 | initially, I had it set set on the five minute chart, now we're in a three minute chart. So it is a little bit more refined now. So hopefully, you know, |
| 546 | 01:47:21,150 --> 01:47:31,740 | the point is, you're learning this morning how to anticipate the chop the anticipation of when the market is going to rip higher and build bias. Even in |
| 547 | 01:47:31,920 --> 01:47:39,630 | the presence of a high resistance liquidity run, we had our volume imbalance traded to here. So remember, I said I want to see in the next two or three |
| 548 | 01:47:39,630 --> 01:47:43,290 | minutes, it needs to get into that volume imbalance. So it's met that threshold |
| 549 | 01:47:53,430 --> 01:48:01,740 | this down close candle here. The way I observed that is I don't want to see it go down and close below the midpoint of that it can come down and touch it. |
| 550 | 01:48:01,740 --> 01:48:08,340 | That's fine because it's also the old Vega. But I want to see if it does that it needs to rip higher and aggressively run. |
| 551 | 01:48:14,970 --> 01:48:24,000 | Now think about think about and now some of you in here. I've tried to press the button, I'm sure. And you're flipping out right now. Because you're seeing all |
| 552 | 01:48:24,000 --> 01:48:30,600 | this chopping you're wanting is just that the ICTs got it wrong, just the day is gonna be right. Oh my goodness, you're worrying about the outcome of your trade |
| 553 | 01:48:30,600 --> 01:48:40,320 | that you should have never entered, versus having the peace of mind knowing how to read this and not have any emotional commitment to it whatsoever. The folks |
| 554 | 01:48:40,320 --> 01:48:46,410 | that are not pushing the button are actually learning today. You're learning fear and greed and buyer's remorse. |
| 555 | 01:48:52,380 --> 01:49:03,810 | But imagine if you're in a trade right now, is it showing you a state of delivery that is very comforting. It shouldn't it's choppy. These are market |
| 556 | 01:49:03,810 --> 01:49:14,400 | conditions when you're in them. They feel like you're being strangled. And darkness is about to slip on and envelop you. You can't it's like It's choking |
| 557 | 01:49:14,400 --> 01:49:24,900 | you. And you don't want to be in trades like that. You want to find trades that are very easy to just once you get in them. Not long after entering them. It |
| 558 | 01:49:24,900 --> 01:49:33,120 | starts moving in your favor and it starts delivering quickly and you have big ranges in your favor. That's a low resistance liquidity run signature. That's |
| 559 | 01:49:33,120 --> 01:49:43,500 | what I'm teaching you to find that you have to see what they are not to know when they exist. This is a high resistance liquidity run. It still can deliver. |
| 560 | 01:49:43,860 --> 01:49:55,800 | It absolutely can do it. But it can do so with gray hair or loss of hair. It's very stressful sometimes and it can it feels like it's an eternity and or |
| 561 | 01:49:55,830 --> 01:50:03,000 | completely fail on you and that's that's always a probability with any trade. Really, but it's more likely to feel when you're trading in these kinds of |
| 562 | 01:50:03,000 --> 01:50:08,490 | conditions. I hope I hope I'm communicating that effectively today |
| 563 | 01:50:19,020 --> 01:50:30,930 | so we've taken those smooth relative equal highs out, we traded up into the volume imbalance. And we're back down in here. So, in my mind, watch this fair |
| 564 | 01:50:30,930 --> 01:50:35,370 | value gap now because it might want to act as resistance and tag that 41 06 50 level |
| 565 | 01:51:00,450 --> 01:51:01,320 | tug of war day |
| 566 | 01:51:06,780 --> 01:51:17,400 | these are days, I'm so glad I'm not in it. As a younger man, I would insist there's something to do right here. I just don't know what it is. Let me take a |
| 567 | 01:51:17,400 --> 01:51:19,740 | guess. We get that |
| 568 | 01:51:30,030 --> 01:51:30,960 | Alright, so now |
| 569 | 01:51:36,000 --> 01:51:39,180 | what's the 4121 level |
| 570 | 01:51:44,340 --> 01:51:52,020 | looks like it's respecting a breaker. I mean, it's not the best breaker. Michelle, you have low, lower low. |
| 571 | 01:52:08,070 --> 01:52:18,420 | So I'm watching how price reacts in here. I don't care about the wick. I'm looking at the body. It's really, really hard to read it when it's like this |
| 572 | 01:52:18,420 --> 01:52:30,150 | choppiness. And it's just a really like a, an experience thing. And if I'm right, don't read into as his skill. It's not skill, because it's not something |
| 573 | 01:52:30,150 --> 01:52:45,390 | I'm pushing a button on. But you should be feeling the trouble, the struggle, the difficulty in reading this, which is exactly when you identify it like this, |
| 574 | 01:52:45,420 --> 01:52:57,600 | here's what you do, okay? You close your trade. Right, as soon as you as soon as you discover that you're in these types of environments, close your trade. But I |
| 575 | 01:52:57,600 --> 01:53:09,750 | see I'm under close your trade. Close it, because you're going to end up spending more mental capital than you're going to make in real life profit. Even |
| 576 | 01:53:09,750 --> 01:53:19,500 | if it goes to your target, you're going to spend more time worrying about this trade, when there's so many other very good setups that aren't going to force |
| 577 | 01:53:19,500 --> 01:53:20,850 | you into something like this. |
| 578 | 01:53:37,980 --> 01:53:50,700 | When does the market chop at the open? When it's already delivered? It's move pre market. And that's what you're seeing here. And then becomes a 5050. It |
| 579 | 01:53:50,700 --> 01:53:59,790 | could go up to that red box. Now I'm hoping I'm hoping that it doesn't. Because I want you to see me get it wrong in these contexts in this context in this |
| 580 | 01:53:59,790 --> 01:54:07,830 | condition, because then it'll prove to you why I'm teaching you the way I'm teaching you. If it goes up there, you're gonna think well, he just got it |
| 581 | 01:54:07,830 --> 01:54:17,490 | right. Again, I don't want that actually to occur here. I want to be wrong. I want to be wrong and say, See, this is why that condition is exactly what you |
| 582 | 01:54:17,490 --> 01:54:24,150 | should be fearful of as a trader, this is the thing you should be fearful of falling victim to this insisting on it's going to go where you want it to go. |
| 583 | 01:54:24,720 --> 01:54:33,840 | Versus, okay, this is more work that needs to be. Let me just close it and I'll come back at another time where it's cleaner. What does that mean cleaner? When |
| 584 | 01:54:33,840 --> 01:54:45,390 | price runs very efficiently. It doesn't waste a lot of time. retracements go to specific levels that are predetermined we can see them as visibility to it. And |
| 585 | 01:54:45,390 --> 01:54:59,760 | it's easy draw. Where right now is it more likely to go to is it easier for it to get to 4121 or to get to 41 06 50? It's 5050. Either one of those scenarios I |
| 586 | 01:54:59,760 --> 01:55:11,130 | can make make a case for right now. And whichever one forms two people that side with that they will think that that was skill, and it's not. And that's what I |
| 587 | 01:55:11,130 --> 01:55:20,100 | fell victim to. In the beginning when I was a 20 year old, I was getting lucky and attributed it falsely to skill. Whereas now I'd like to believe I'm a little |
| 588 | 01:55:20,100 --> 01:55:33,720 | bit more versed. I've picked up a whole lot of wisdom through pain. So it's a big difference between me now and as a 20 year old. But when you first start, |
| 589 | 01:55:33,750 --> 01:55:43,200 | you don't have that measuring stick, right? You just have your emotions. And as young men, we'd like to think you were that caveman, we get it right your your |
| 590 | 01:55:44,130 --> 01:55:46,140 | thought on the unconquerable. |
| 591 | 01:55:55,980 --> 01:56:06,960 | This wick right here, here for that sense, it was traded here. And we're looking at the bodies, it's not showing a willingness to give back above that original |
| 592 | 01:56:06,990 --> 01:56:09,420 | five minute Fairbury gap, which is that green box |
| 593 | 01:56:19,350 --> 01:56:40,770 | take a look at this on a one minute chart. How's that make you feel? Yep. 5050 41 06 50, or 4121, who's going to be right? In the beauty is, neither one |
| 594 | 01:56:41,490 --> 01:56:50,520 | is a factor for you as a trader right now, you're completely at peace of mind, knowing that you're not influenced by Oh, but if it moves there, I could catch |
| 595 | 01:56:50,520 --> 01:57:01,590 | that move, there's going to be so many other moves that are cleaner, easier and easier to deliver the transport your entry to target much more efficiently and |
| 596 | 01:57:01,860 --> 01:57:06,600 | faster, really. Whereas this, you know, it could go either way. |
| 597 | 01:57:11,910 --> 01:57:25,320 | This candle we're on right now just went right up to that fear vague get in touch to as resistance as you would expect. Low, low and low. So their suicide |
| 598 | 01:57:25,350 --> 01:57:32,820 | rate below here. If they're gonna go below that they're gonna run into here in a net consequent encroachment wick at 41 06 50. And I have some of you who are new |
| 599 | 01:57:32,820 --> 01:57:45,420 | or thinking myself, There's no way I would know how to do this, you will. It's the same stuff repeating all the time. Everything worth doing takes a little bit |
| 600 | 01:57:45,420 --> 01:57:53,790 | more effort than the average person is willing to do. And you should commend yourself for wanting to do this because this is one of the hardest things in the |
| 601 | 01:57:53,790 --> 01:57:54,420 | world to do. |
| 602 | 01:58:02,940 --> 01:58:12,300 | So now let's this is another thing I like to do. And this is how I've always taught my students as well. Say you're late to get into the charts. Okay, first, |
| 603 | 01:58:12,540 --> 01:58:24,540 | first sitting down, you turn your charts on you overslept. You run to your charts, and this is what you see. What do you feel confident about? It? |
| 604 | 01:58:24,540 --> 01:58:35,520 | Admittedly, I'm thinking 41 06 50, if I'm looking at the chart right now, but I'm not looking at a chart thinking, I gotta get in there. I'm gonna miss |
| 605 | 01:58:35,520 --> 01:58:51,510 | something. Look at this. Does anything in here look like anything I've taught on my YouTube channel? For opportunity? No. So what are you doing? You're gambling. |
| 606 | 01:58:51,540 --> 01:59:02,310 | If you enter into this, there's nothing. It's a 5050 condition. And if you don't understand that, if you can't see that you're going to fall victim to this type |
| 607 | 01:59:02,310 --> 01:59:09,540 | of day. I guarantee you, there's YouTubers out there right now trying to insist that it's going to do one thing or another right now. And I'm not trying to be |
| 608 | 01:59:09,540 --> 01:59:20,820 | argumentative or route to any of them. But because you're in front of other people in a live stream, you're sharing your opinion, guess what? You're going |
| 609 | 01:59:20,820 --> 01:59:29,190 | to force something. And that's why as a new student or a new trader, the worst thing you can do is put yourself out there in front of other people because it's |
| 610 | 01:59:29,190 --> 01:59:38,640 | going to make you impulsive, versus using sound logic, good risk management. And are you really following your model or are you just doing something because you |
| 611 | 01:59:38,640 --> 01:59:44,550 | want to perform to that volume imbalance |
| 612 | 02:00:10,830 --> 02:00:25,260 | Now I'm going to ask you just study this is a very very poor condition to do it in. But see if that volume imbalance acts as resistance as a run to 41 06 50. |
| 613 | 02:00:43,650 --> 02:00:44,400 | Nothing there |
| 614 | 02:01:01,230 --> 02:01:08,700 | for those of you who have been very disciplined this morning, I'm proud of you, and you should be thinking to yourself, I'm glad I didn't do anything today. |
| 615 | 02:01:34,440 --> 02:01:46,680 | So the sellers that were interested in chasing markets lower today at the open, haven't seen much in delivery on the downside. Since we went down below that old |
| 616 | 02:01:46,680 --> 02:02:00,390 | low at 4113, which the level I told you to focus on for sell side, we've had 1234 times where we ran out, short term buy side and we dropped down and only |
| 617 | 02:02:00,390 --> 02:02:16,440 | taken out one with this low two with that low. So it to me looks like we probably rounded out the morning, morning low and we'll likely see that 4121 |
| 618 | 02:02:16,440 --> 02:02:16,680 | Then |
| 619 | 02:02:30,120 --> 02:02:39,660 | don't close candle it mean threshold which is half of it, which is real close to the middle of that wick right there. |
| 620 | 02:02:46,950 --> 02:02:56,220 | Devil's Advocate say I was long say I was foolishly trying to push something, I'd want to see it now in the next two candles. And we're in a one minute chart. |
| 621 | 02:02:56,490 --> 02:03:11,580 | Next two or three candles, I want to see it run higher, and reach back up into that Obata liquidity pool here. And say I was in a trade sales in a trade and I |
| 622 | 02:03:11,580 --> 02:03:21,780 | realized I was potentially in a high resistance liquidity run signature. And I'm having difficulty getting to target by having this two to three minute filter. |
| 623 | 02:03:21,960 --> 02:03:31,590 | If it doesn't deliver as I'm expecting, which is this blue line right here. It needs to get above that then I would close the trade and be done regardless of |
| 624 | 02:03:31,590 --> 02:03:39,540 | wherever I was. That's the benefit of having that time filter. Why would I want to do that because I'm going to hold on to something that could potentially turn |
| 625 | 02:03:39,540 --> 02:03:51,420 | worse on me or just stay exactly where it's at doing nothing. So it's important to understand these conditions because you will eventually fall victim to it. So |
| 626 | 02:03:51,420 --> 02:04:00,150 | there's a lot of times where the market looks like it's going to offer beautiful price delivery you know the setups are just easy like it's dangling candy in |
| 627 | 02:04:00,150 --> 02:04:09,150 | front of you. And then once you take it and you pay for it by entering and paying the Commission's and incurring the risk you regret it and then you don't |
| 628 | 02:04:09,150 --> 02:04:17,310 | want to close it out because you fear fully thing that it seems like close trader then is going to run in my favor and then I'll feel stupid. Well more |
| 629 | 02:04:17,310 --> 02:04:20,400 | times than not, you're going to regret having held on to Detroit |
| 630 | 02:04:35,910 --> 02:04:46,890 | so what are we seen so far? every reason to expect choppiness uncertainty came to fruition |
| 631 | 02:05:08,040 --> 02:05:12,510 | Take a look at NASDAQ haven't looked at that this morning I apologize I should have brought it up sooner |
| 632 | 02:05:19,500 --> 02:05:35,520 | the hourly chart over here see this ranger in slightly took a look at Dale |
| 633 | 02:05:41,070 --> 02:05:41,730 | Thank you |
| 634 | 02:05:49,050 --> 02:05:57,990 | Alright, so that would be the end of I would not hold the position. If I had a position on, I will close it and be content with. Okay, it's not doing what I |
| 635 | 02:05:57,990 --> 02:06:07,860 | want to see it do time filter parameter kicked in, it didn't deliver where I wanted to see it deliver at least a minimum. So I would cut bait. So whenever |
| 636 | 02:06:07,860 --> 02:06:17,670 | you hear me for refer to cut bait, either I'm in a position I'm closing it, or I'm no longer interested in pursuing anything for that session. And I'll just |
| 637 | 02:06:17,670 --> 02:06:25,410 | move to sidelines and be flat and do nothing and not worry about even if it does whatever it's going to do. I'm not going to go back and look at the chart and |
| 638 | 02:06:25,410 --> 02:06:35,490 | say, Oh, I wish I would have because experience will teach you if you exist in the longevity is offered to you by doing the right things and avoiding the wrong |
| 639 | 02:06:35,490 --> 02:06:42,870 | things. If you stay in this business long enough, you're gonna see that there are more times that you're going to wish you would have gotten now versus |
| 640 | 02:06:42,870 --> 02:06:52,620 | holding on to it when it's problematic and suggesting otherwise crummy conditions. It's better simply this move to the sidelines. Because if anybody's |
| 641 | 02:06:52,620 --> 02:07:06,030 | looking at this and saying oh yeah, that's one of those XYZ patterns. It always works out. You're you're talking about the other end okay, that's nonsense so |
| 642 | 02:07:06,030 --> 02:07:14,760 | here we have one more piercing of the daily low and again, I really would have liked to see that 41 06 50 level get tagged |
| 643 | 02:07:25,050 --> 02:07:36,930 | we have a breaker now. All Fairbury get right in take us right into that right there |
| 644 | 02:07:48,240 --> 02:08:02,190 | what's the low tech it made a little low two. I was looking at the lows from here seeing if it had failed the Mako. |
| 645 | 02:08:24,510 --> 02:08:46,470 | plotted the NASDAQ comparatively and I'm looking at the lows plotted on NASDAQ. And I'm comparing respectively, the IES lows versus that of the the NASDAQ 41 06 |
| 646 | 02:08:46,470 --> 02:08:47,010 | should be hit |
| 647 | 02:08:57,150 --> 02:09:11,760 | for somebody that just got here the 41 06 level is this over here on a five minute chart |
| 648 | 02:09:17,430 --> 02:09:30,090 | that wicker here and I think we just hit it yeah 41 06 50 Hit it as consequent encouragement on that wick and we'll see does it want to offer a return back up |
| 649 | 02:09:30,090 --> 02:09:37,830 | in the gap that has formed again this is we'll make another notation |
| 650 | 02:09:43,320 --> 02:10:03,600 | opening to Friday's close that blue shaded area that's the range we had betrayed up into that. Inside this range is gap tried several times to do it, this move |
| 651 | 02:10:03,600 --> 02:10:12,840 | lower. We've hit consequent crochet 41 06 50. And I believe the better price action will be in the afternoon session |
| 652 | 02:10:18,119 --> 02:10:28,739 | the opportunity still lies with if the market can find a low, set up something as a run in the afternoon up here, I favor that based on all I'm seeing right |
| 653 | 02:10:28,739 --> 02:10:40,889 | now, that's what I favor. Anything can happen between now and over the lunch hour. But I would like to see that as a potential framework for like 130 to four |
| 654 | 02:10:40,889 --> 02:10:55,979 | o'clock session. So we got up essentially about halfway through that gap, isn't that blue shaded area represented by yesterday's day, session close and 930 |
| 655 | 02:10:55,979 --> 02:10:56,729 | opening today? |
| 656 | 02:11:20,760 --> 02:11:30,540 | is very hard for me to have this on my chart. And hopefully, I'm not making it harder for you. But this is a lot of lipstick on the chart for me, I just want |
| 657 | 02:11:30,540 --> 02:11:42,000 | you to see the representation of that gap from yesterday's trading to this morning's opening, that range is important. And we see trade up about half of it |
| 658 | 02:11:42,060 --> 02:11:53,610 | here. And we'll take this other stuff off because it's no longer sealed. So just be mindful that that range here that have those levels on your chart. |
| 659 | 02:12:08,550 --> 02:12:24,810 | Yeah, that's gonna be it for me this morning. So not a terribly exciting one, obviously, but you got to see some some elements of price action that we'd like |
| 660 | 02:12:24,810 --> 02:12:37,230 | to see deliver. And then also learning when I sit still, why I sit still, what constitutes a reason for me not to want to do it. And unfortunately, in your, |
| 661 | 02:12:37,260 --> 02:12:44,490 | when you're new, you can't appreciate that type of lesson. Because it feels like you should be pushing a button, you should be showing me the market is going to |
| 662 | 02:12:44,490 --> 02:12:53,670 | move a big move. And if the markets not going to move, it doesn't matter how many things I talk about liking about it, it won't make price go up or down. |
| 663 | 02:12:54,690 --> 02:13:03,150 | It's not going to do like that doesn't work like that. So the market has to be in a position to be predisposed to go higher or lower, with a great deal of |
| 664 | 02:13:03,180 --> 02:13:14,880 | ease. That's very low resistance liquidity runs. And we're not seeing that here. And you can't walk away from this thinking foolishly, there was an unprofitable |
| 665 | 02:13:14,880 --> 02:13:26,370 | study because these are the very things that you're going to chop yourself up, do lots of needless silly trades. chasing the next breakout, thinking this is |
| 666 | 02:13:26,370 --> 02:13:32,970 | gonna be the real run, this is gonna be the real move. This is gonna be thing that I've been waiting for all morning, I get all my losses back. And the only |
| 667 | 02:13:32,970 --> 02:13:43,620 | thing ends up happening is you compound your losses into larger ones. And or blow your account. I'm telling you, this is exactly what it looks like. This is |
| 668 | 02:13:43,650 --> 02:13:54,060 | why it forms this way. And all the things that were outlined here, if the move delivers before 930 expect night or any choppy and trade the afternoon session |
| 669 | 02:13:54,090 --> 02:14:02,280 | done simple. That's why also sometimes you see me entering and doing trades before 930 Why but you said the idea should be we should be trading Yeah, you |
| 670 | 02:14:02,280 --> 02:14:15,660 | should be focusing on 930. And if there's news at 830 focus there too. But if the moves form a setup before that there's nothing saying you can't trade seven |
| 671 | 02:14:15,660 --> 02:14:26,640 | o'clock than nine o'clock in the morning. If the framework is offering it to you, there's your setup. But by doing that know that when 930 comes in the US |
| 672 | 02:14:26,640 --> 02:14:35,370 | equities market opens is usually the opening bell ding ding ding you know, CNBC Hello business makes a big deal that when that occurs, this is what you're |
| 673 | 02:14:35,370 --> 02:14:45,000 | likely to see this type of messiness. And you don't want to look at this and trick yourself into thinking this is opportunity. The it is opportunity, it's an |
| 674 | 02:14:45,000 --> 02:14:56,610 | opportunity for you to hurt yourself. Do reckless trading, turn your account for broker sake, and you lose it or create drawdown this is exactly where it creeps |
| 675 | 02:14:56,610 --> 02:15:05,880 | into your trading. In the beginning, when you listen These 20 year olds that think that they have things figured out, you'll fall victim to that just like I |
| 676 | 02:15:05,880 --> 02:15:17,040 | fell victim to things on America Online back in 1992 and 93. There was always these hucksters out there always trying to tell you something, do this by this. |
| 677 | 02:15:18,030 --> 02:15:32,280 | It was in these instances that they were quiet. They didn't have an answer for it. And people were getting wrecked. You have to know where these types of |
| 678 | 02:15:32,280 --> 02:15:48,240 | conditions will manifest, where will they likely form. And by knowing that, number one, it prevents you, hopefully, from losing control yourself. And over |
| 679 | 02:15:48,330 --> 02:15:58,710 | expecting price delivery on a day like this in these types of conditions. It's easy to see after the fact and say, Oh, I wish I would have known that. It's all |
| 680 | 02:15:58,710 --> 02:16:09,240 | together something different. And it's only guided by experience and no book. No educator, no five minute trainer, nobody's going to teach that lesson to you. |
| 681 | 02:16:09,630 --> 02:16:20,130 | You have to live it. You have to be hurt by it a few times. And say okay, I understand what this is now. It's pretty interesting how 41 06 50 level reacted |
| 682 | 02:16:20,130 --> 02:16:30,840 | in it. I'm giving it time to see if I can get to that breaker. This this candle here if you can get above that function support. I'm going to watch that were on |
| 683 | 02:16:30,840 --> 02:16:45,450 | there ICTs addicted for the last 30 years I've been addicted it's the best drug on the planet. Price |
| 684 | 02:16:50,520 --> 02:17:05,520 | look at the lows right at B 41 06 50 level as a hit that see what the NASDAQ wasn't able to do. It didn't make that lower low. That was the whole point we |
| 685 | 02:17:05,520 --> 02:17:21,600 | bring in about shorting that busy jawboning. So here's where this is where we usually see like a gun to my head. Okay. If I had to do something right now, I |
| 686 | 02:17:21,600 --> 02:17:30,720 | wouldn't want to do anything right now admittedly. But if I had to do something right now, would I be more interested in being short or more interested in being |
| 687 | 02:17:30,720 --> 02:17:38,700 | long? I would be more interested in being long. I'd like to see a trade down to that fair pay gap right there. repriced the here and then into this area here. |
| 688 | 02:18:33,479 --> 02:18:44,729 | Both these hit I've got his headset here and I thought I was doing myself good but I'm not sure why this died I have no way the battery died that quick. So I'm |
| 689 | 02:18:44,729 --> 02:18:45,689 | probably doing something wrong |
| 690 | 02:19:02,940 --> 02:19:09,240 | the idea will be invalid at that point. Apologize beginning |
| 691 | 02:19:21,659 --> 02:19:31,949 | Why am I picking that level? Because it's below the middle point of this down close candle it's mean threshold so my stat will be below that. I don't have a |
| 692 | 02:19:31,949 --> 02:19:38,819 | trade arm so please don't take that as invitation to push the button. Okay, I know some of you in here just are doing that what you're doing. |
| 693 | 02:19:50,940 --> 02:20:03,210 | Remember, high resistance. high resistance creates a lot of pausing deeper retracements and you then He would rather see and ultimately failure |
| 694 | 02:20:10,830 --> 02:20:24,360 | in low resistance liquidity run signature, this thing would have already been over 4119. Because a time of the morning, because we've already priced in a |
| 695 | 02:20:24,360 --> 02:20:29,550 | lower low. And we have a divergence between the NASDAQ's of the actors are not confirming one another |
| 696 | 02:20:37,229 --> 02:20:38,189 | see that reaction |
| 697 | 02:20:44,490 --> 02:20:54,720 | that's what high resistance liquidity rooms do. It's very, very give and take back a lot, give and take a lot. It's, it's very frustrating to be in these |
| 698 | 02:20:54,720 --> 02:21:01,530 | types of trades. Even when the p&l, it's very difficult that you understand the distinctions between the two. |
| 699 | 02:21:18,450 --> 02:21:21,000 | See how still slightly, it's still trading sideways. |
| 700 | 02:21:26,820 --> 02:21:29,460 | It's very, very hard to get excited about move like this today. |
| 701 | 02:21:35,969 --> 02:21:44,849 | So if you're new and you haven't traded with real money, yet, you've been spared the pain and anguish that these types of environments create for you that most |
| 702 | 02:21:44,849 --> 02:21:53,549 | people end up losing their accounts and chopping themselves up with. Because if they tried to fix the problem of doing something they knew they should never |
| 703 | 02:21:53,549 --> 02:22:03,629 | done, take a trade in an environment that is iffy, like a 5050 condition. And everyone's done this. If you've ever traded with money, you know exactly the few |
| 704 | 02:22:03,629 --> 02:22:11,459 | times that stand out in your mind that you wish you never would have done those trades on that day, that day, because you knew is most likely not going to pan |
| 705 | 02:22:11,459 --> 02:22:22,079 | out for you, but you couldn't leave it alone. The feeling is you want to get back in there and fix it right away, you want to erase it. Let me just go back |
| 706 | 02:22:22,079 --> 02:22:30,089 | and fix it. And then I'll stop trading for the day and I'll be glad I fixed it in them. I'm smarter for doing so that never works out like that and ends up |
| 707 | 02:22:30,089 --> 02:22:31,229 | becoming a bigger drawdown. |
| 708 | 02:22:40,710 --> 02:22:43,230 | Now, if it doesn't run higher on this candle, it isn't going on. |
| 709 | 02:23:17,010 --> 02:23:30,630 | Starting the day like this, before a pain is much more a factor is wisdom. It won't feel like wisdom, it will feel like you're cheating yourself out of |
| 710 | 02:23:30,630 --> 02:23:42,660 | potential to make more or fixing a problem. Don't ever think that. Don't ever think that if the markets ugly, and you recognize it as being ugly, and you |
| 711 | 02:23:42,660 --> 02:23:55,830 | start feeling heavy chested, and you're breathing heavy heart palpitations, that will be a stop out. Now, do I need to get in here and trade this in lose in |
| 712 | 02:23:55,830 --> 02:24:05,520 | front of you, for you to appreciate the fact that this is exactly what you want to avoid? I don't need to push a button to do that. Everything I'm outlining |
| 713 | 02:24:05,520 --> 02:24:16,560 | here is problematic for you going forward, if you don't listen to it. Contrast that with other days where it's easy. You know, every single time I talk about |
| 714 | 02:24:16,560 --> 02:24:32,190 | it on Twitter. When I talk about on Twitter, those examples, they've been pretty much 90% They're under the pretense of a low resistance liquidity run. You don't |
| 715 | 02:24:32,190 --> 02:24:42,300 | see me point now. Oh, well, this is going to be a hard run here is going to be a sticking point at this price level. It's sloppy, it's choppy. You don't want to |
| 716 | 02:24:42,300 --> 02:24:54,090 | trade in these conditions. And the problem is is you'll see these things sometimes allow you to fix a problem, fix an error fix a losing streak that you |
| 717 | 02:24:54,090 --> 02:25:09,810 | had that morning and you'll think that that's skill See that lower low on the s&p, it hasn't been met with the NASDAQ that are here. Now by itself means |
| 718 | 02:25:09,810 --> 02:25:25,200 | absolutely nothing. The fact that it's done so on a day where we've opened with a large gap blower, we've taken out the low here, here, in here, how many |
| 719 | 02:25:25,200 --> 02:25:31,830 | buyside. Now have we taken out this high from here, this high here, this high here |
| 720 | 02:25:39,030 --> 02:25:54,180 | so anybody that's wanting to sell or breakout, they're short. Anyone that's already short, feels confident. And we have a large gap still unfulfilled above |
| 721 | 02:25:54,180 --> 02:26:09,690 | us with an s&p divergence between the averages, so the averages did not confirm that lower low and NASDAQ. So assuming that we don't go crashing lower between |
| 722 | 02:26:09,690 --> 02:26:22,470 | now and 130, I would like in this is not an invitation for you to trade. But I would like to see if it makes it an opportunity for the market that want to run |
| 723 | 02:26:22,470 --> 02:26:35,130 | up into that 4121 4123 level during the pm session. And by having that as a potential narrative to work with in the afternoon, it allows you to just let the |
| 724 | 02:26:35,130 --> 02:26:44,790 | market do whatever it's going to do. What what happens if you come back at 130, and it has already done that, then it's over and you missed it. There's nothing |
| 725 | 02:26:44,790 --> 02:26:57,000 | wrong with that. It just means you missed that trade. But what happens if it does offer that potential and fails, you're going to fail in trading, you're |
| 726 | 02:26:57,000 --> 02:27:06,570 | going to have trades that don't pan out. There's nothing wrong with that it mean everybody has losing trades everyone's gonna have their setups that they think |
| 727 | 02:27:06,570 --> 02:27:14,880 | is really there, they're not going to be fruitful. Alright, let's watch one more |
| 728 | 02:27:28,979 --> 02:27:38,159 | volume and balance s&p divergence here, breaker Beisa. |
| 729 | 02:27:57,300 --> 02:28:09,960 | When I was younger these are the lessons I would have paid money for. Because this is how I hurt myself. Every time I blew an account, I was forcing trades |
| 730 | 02:28:09,960 --> 02:28:22,620 | and days like this and insistent on that was I was right, I was going to be right finally I was finally gonna be right. Now any other day, I would treat |
| 731 | 02:28:22,620 --> 02:28:31,890 | this as a long entry why? Short term high taken here. We retraced we took sellside out and we have a divergence some tea, and we've not been able to |
| 732 | 02:28:31,890 --> 02:28:44,100 | accelerate on the downside on a date we get lower. So I would want to see it really start to run higher, and attack that by side here. But again, watch how |
| 733 | 02:28:44,100 --> 02:28:55,470 | it delivers. Under the context of a high resistance, liquidity run everything I've outlined this morning, this is what you have in ahead of you. You don't |
| 734 | 02:28:55,470 --> 02:29:06,870 | have the wind at your back, it's in your face. And it's like hurricane force, it's forcing back against you in your trades. And it's very very frustrating. If |
| 735 | 02:29:06,870 --> 02:29:19,500 | you don't know what you're experiencing and you can't observe it, it can be very very frustrating and that makes you get emotional. It makes you feel like you |
| 736 | 02:29:19,500 --> 02:29:34,350 | feel reckless, you know and that type of thing causes you to do what remove a stop loss in this case would be right here mean threshold there is that will be |
| 737 | 02:29:34,350 --> 02:29:34,590 | there |
| 738 | 02:29:41,190 --> 02:29:51,750 | too. I mean, there's a lot of things about this industry that don't get talked much about in books and such but traders so I love listening to people to |
| 739 | 02:29:51,750 --> 02:30:05,940 | actually trade because what they say and how they experience and internalize price action and listening in observing the frustrations or the elation that |
| 740 | 02:30:05,940 --> 02:30:16,500 | they feel, while they're in a market mood, to me is much, much more fascinating. Because these candlesticks are really about psychology more than they are |
| 741 | 02:30:16,500 --> 02:30:30,870 | anything else. They're Rorschach, they're they, they're like inkblots, you're gonna make them say whatever you want them to say. Because you want to do |
| 742 | 02:30:30,870 --> 02:30:39,030 | something, you want to trade, you want to force a narrative, you want to force an idea, you want to do something that causes the potential for you to make |
| 743 | 02:30:39,030 --> 02:30:47,490 | money, because that making other money means that you're significant. And that significance is a powerful drug. That's why social media is so addictive. |
| 744 | 02:30:55,020 --> 02:31:04,110 | One more touch there. Now, on another day, we're not being met with high resistance, that would have been another entry for me, you know, adding more to |
| 745 | 02:31:04,110 --> 02:31:11,310 | it. But you can't think that today with this, because we have all these other factors fighting against you. |
| 746 | 02:31:25,650 --> 02:31:36,930 | These are the things I was doing when I had my first year mentorship. And I'm sitting in a room with GoToWebinar, 800. And some people enter 68 people and 64, |
| 747 | 02:31:36,930 --> 02:31:45,840 | something like that. And in the chat window, I had a mistake made the mistake of being able to see that which was terrible for me, because it was very |
| 748 | 02:31:45,840 --> 02:31:56,250 | distracting. And I had I was trying to teach this over the charts live. And I would get 1000 questions. What about this? And what about that, and I'm trying |
| 749 | 02:31:56,250 --> 02:32:10,260 | to do my best to try to use service everyone's request and question. And it was such a state of confusion like I couldn't focus I could not focus on I was |
| 750 | 02:32:10,260 --> 02:32:17,130 | frustrated with myself, I was frustrated with my students because they weren't were on listen, they weren't willing to listen and see what it was I was showing |
| 751 | 02:32:17,130 --> 02:32:27,390 | them. And understanding there's a lesson in understanding that a high resistance liquidity run, you will see things in the price action doesn't mean that it's |
| 752 | 02:32:27,390 --> 02:32:36,150 | going to deliver like you want it. And they still might deliver like you would like to see them deliver. But you can't actively seek trading in those |
| 753 | 02:32:36,150 --> 02:32:41,550 | conditions. And keep peace of mind while you're trading. Because it's makes it harder to it has to be. |
| 754 | 02:33:15,840 --> 02:33:22,980 | I really want to see you hit that red line and be a technical hypothetical stopped out because that would be communicating what I'm teaching you today, |
| 755 | 02:33:23,370 --> 02:33:31,140 | what to avoid, don't try to force trades in these conditions. If it runs up there and hits the buy side and hits that rectangle up there, you're going to |
| 756 | 02:33:31,170 --> 02:33:38,460 | foolishly assume that that skill and you're going to be able to do this type of thing going forward. That's not what this lesson is about. That's not what the |
| 757 | 02:33:38,580 --> 02:33:48,390 | focus is. It's to show you by contrast, when you see me trading in low resistance liquidity runs, it's easy. It's real easy. It's why it looks easy, |
| 758 | 02:33:48,390 --> 02:33:59,820 | because everything is going in your favor. Everything is you got time of day you have all the other factors supporting it, you risk on risk off all the price |
| 759 | 02:33:59,820 --> 02:34:12,480 | delivery, everything is this, like precision. That's that's the example I share on Twitter. That's why they work. I don't force those types of things in |
| 760 | 02:34:12,480 --> 02:34:20,970 | Twitter, when it's like this. That's what makes it different. And when you see other people tweeting to me and saying, oh, you know, how's he able to do this? |
| 761 | 02:34:21,000 --> 02:34:32,820 | How does he know which one, number one it's experience? Two, I'm avoiding these kinds of conditions because even a very good trader, a very good trader, trading |
| 762 | 02:34:32,820 --> 02:34:42,990 | in these types of conditions will look like a novice, because the markets are just being very fickle. That is they're not going to they're not going to |
| 763 | 02:34:43,020 --> 02:34:53,130 | present you the opportunity that you would rather see. And it's unfortunate because as a new trader, you don't have the patience to appreciate good wisdom |
| 764 | 02:34:53,130 --> 02:35:01,350 | and sound logic when it's presented to you. Because you're you're weighing everything on the basis of right or wrong You're making money, you're not making |
| 765 | 02:35:01,350 --> 02:35:11,490 | money, show me with a live account, it doesn't matter. The logic works or it doesn't work. No buttons are being pushed here. And I'm proving that even in |
| 766 | 02:35:11,490 --> 02:35:21,000 | these conditions, I'm not as precise, which is exactly what we're trying to focus on here, showing how you are going to avoid that same condition going |
| 767 | 02:35:21,000 --> 02:35:29,340 | forward. Because if you don't understand where the potholes are, you're going to fly over top of them. And to slamming in, it's going to do what it's going to |
| 768 | 02:35:29,340 --> 02:35:37,680 | mess your alignment up. It's going to tear up your alignment, just like in your car, if you hit a big old pothole, boom, what happens, your alignments off, you |
| 769 | 02:35:37,680 --> 02:35:45,210 | might still drive, it might not pull that much to the right or to the left. But given enough time, what happens it wears your tires away prematurely, more |
| 770 | 02:35:45,210 --> 02:35:51,780 | costs, that means you're going to be doing things differently, you're going to steer to the right or the left, when you're trading should have been straight |
| 771 | 02:35:51,780 --> 02:36:01,080 | ahead. You've been affected. Now your bearings have been deviated from. And you're going to incur more loss because there's wear and tear on the tires. |
| 772 | 02:36:01,200 --> 02:36:09,360 | That's the wear and tear on your equity, you're going to be constantly taking on more trades, more losing more drawdown than is necessary. If you would have |
| 773 | 02:36:09,360 --> 02:36:17,850 | learned a lesson like this one, understanding where there's going to be problem areas in the marketplace. And try not to force the issue. Don't try to head |
| 774 | 02:36:18,540 --> 02:36:26,430 | don't go 55 mile an hour into a pothole when you know that that's going to be likely the scenario going forward in the marketplace for that given session or |
| 775 | 02:36:26,430 --> 02:36:38,640 | that day. Why are you flooring it? Your flooring it? You're trying to correct every issue oversteering and then it causes you to crash too. So all these |
| 776 | 02:36:38,640 --> 02:36:49,890 | factors, all these things, as a new trader, as a new student, you have no idea how to you appreciate those types of lessons, because you think it's push a |
| 777 | 02:36:49,890 --> 02:37:03,030 | button, get me and make me money. Like it's a video game. It's so much more than that. Way more than that, in books and courses. You know, they don't do it. Like |
| 778 | 02:37:03,030 --> 02:37:16,830 | you got to sit with somebody and let them walk you through it step by step, candle by candle over time. And you will see oh, yeah, I get it now. Nobody |
| 779 | 02:37:16,950 --> 02:37:31,560 | nobody in, in Twitter Ville, okay, or YouTube would have been able to outline all this mess beforehand, and navigate it efficiently. If they've done so, if |
| 780 | 02:37:31,560 --> 02:37:40,980 | they've are profitable, if they are online and are saying they did it with skill. That's nonsense. Because anybody with any measure of experience would |
| 781 | 02:37:40,980 --> 02:37:51,720 | know that you're just getting lucky in this sloppy chop mess. And that was a very painful thing for me. Because I was attributing a skill when I was getting |
| 782 | 02:37:51,720 --> 02:38:04,410 | lucky in the early days. It was not luck. It was just mentally it was luck. Rather, it wasn't skill, it was blind luck. And it was a very bitter pill, |
| 783 | 02:38:05,610 --> 02:38:14,460 | you'll see I would want to see that go head went down the consequent Kurzman this gap here, it needs to really tear off and take out these highs. These are |
| 784 | 02:38:14,460 --> 02:38:24,540 | relatively equal. And if it does go well that it needs to rip through it not go above and come back down in. So look at this right here. And this will hopefully |
| 785 | 02:38:24,540 --> 02:38:26,130 | be the last one we talked about. |
| 786 | 02:38:33,900 --> 02:38:44,160 | So it's very get here with the order block. dropped down into it, we rallied I'd want to see it really tear off, not come back down into this again, it need not |
| 787 | 02:38:44,160 --> 02:38:54,450 | do that it needs to go above these relatively equal highs and not return back into that it needs to accelerate through. What would that mean for a trade? |
| 788 | 02:38:54,660 --> 02:39:08,820 | Okay. Right now, we would have hypothetically five handles. And the stock would have to be below here for any partials. If, if you've taken something off, your |
| 789 | 02:39:08,820 --> 02:39:18,630 | stop would be right there below the fair value gap. And it's below the order block. If it went down a hit you out. Or if it touches this line, you'd have to |
| 790 | 02:39:18,630 --> 02:39:29,340 | be content with the five handles that you would have taken as a partial. But look how hard even five handles is in this condition. We're bumping up against |
| 791 | 02:39:29,340 --> 02:39:37,860 | that old low. Let me go back up to a five minute chart just for a second. As we're hitting right here, we're just hanging around below that. But look what |
| 792 | 02:39:37,860 --> 02:39:50,070 | we've done. We've went low, low or lower that was not confirmed with the NASDAQ. That's not an indicator okay. It's it's the price action of the NASDAQ the |
| 793 | 02:39:50,070 --> 02:40:03,420 | what's occurring when that happens is my my belief in it is this because the NASDAQ was unwilling to make to lower low when the net when the s&p made a lower |
| 794 | 02:40:03,420 --> 02:40:15,000 | low here, the fact that it was unable to do so in the NASDAQ, it's like a cracking correlation because in a perfect world, s&p Dow and NASDAQ should be |
| 795 | 02:40:15,000 --> 02:40:24,450 | going the same direction. And as long as they're making higher highs equally, respectively, and whereas if high highs are being met in ES, they should be met |
| 796 | 02:40:24,450 --> 02:40:33,000 | in the NASDAQ and they should be met in the Dow. If at any time they don't do those things, then there's something going on behind the scenes that is probably |
| 797 | 02:40:33,000 --> 02:40:44,310 | noteworthy with a one minute chart. And typically, it means that there's some kind of an intermediate term shift in the marketplace, traditionally, but when |
| 798 | 02:40:44,310 --> 02:40:51,090 | you have these types of conditions like this, it makes it harder for that to be delivered. And now the estoppel. So you'd have to be content with whatever |
| 799 | 02:40:51,090 --> 02:41:05,190 | partial at five handles. There. It's done. So I wish I could do more with what we have here. But the markets gonna give us what the markets gonna give us |
| 800 | 02:41:05,190 --> 02:41:14,160 | right. I'm actually interested to see if it rips now because of me staring at level right here, because a lot of you are probably taking this as a walk trade. |
| 801 | 02:41:16,980 --> 02:41:19,950 | Oh, I got stopped out and he ran it up to 4121. |
| 802 | 02:41:29,460 --> 02:41:41,400 | Now here's this, here's a scenario for you. Say I was in a trade? I took a partial off here, but five into this breaker. Fine, wonderful. And I rolled the |
| 803 | 02:41:41,400 --> 02:41:52,260 | stock up here. Great hits it and stops. Now, would there be a way for me to back go back in? If it were not a day like today? How would I do that? How would I |
| 804 | 02:41:52,380 --> 02:42:08,070 | reengage the marketplace? Well, we have this mitigation blocker here, let's close candle, which is a breaker low, high, low and low. Last up close candle in |
| 805 | 02:42:08,070 --> 02:42:18,240 | there hi, extend that forward. If we were to trade above it, come back down and touch it as support. I would use that as a entry technique and use the |
| 806 | 02:42:18,240 --> 02:42:29,790 | consequent encroachment of this fair value gap as a stop. And I would look for first partial here. An aim for consequent curtailment of this gap. That's what |
| 807 | 02:42:29,790 --> 02:42:30,150 | I'm gonna do. |
| 808 | 02:42:35,460 --> 02:42:46,530 | So I'm using each one of these PDE arrays, kind of like a stair step, or like a mountain climber, they look where's their next grab point, where's the next part |
| 809 | 02:42:46,530 --> 02:42:53,820 | four point on the surface of the mountain or cliff, where they're gonna put their foot when they get there, where's the next thing they're gonna do? I'm |
| 810 | 02:42:53,820 --> 02:43:03,120 | looking at price like that. Whereas I'm not relying on like trend lines, or something else. I don't know what else to refer to. |
| 811 | 02:43:13,229 --> 02:43:23,069 | This is actually one of the best things that could have happened today because it will filter out who's lazy. And I've had so many people come in, I'm gonna |
| 812 | 02:43:23,069 --> 02:43:31,559 | learn this, I'm gonna do this. And then they realize how much work is involved? And like, oh, yeah, it's easier for me go here and get this indicator. Go ahead. |
| 813 | 02:43:32,249 --> 02:43:33,269 | I'll see you in a couple of years |
| 814 | 02:43:41,160 --> 02:44:08,130 | now look at the range that's been formed between nine What is it 957 5951. So 951 to 1020. Just consolidating sideways, everybody wants a break out. So |
| 815 | 02:44:08,130 --> 02:44:20,370 | everybody's waiting for they want to see this spring finally get released in one direction or the other is gonna go higher or lower. At this point, I think it is |
| 816 | 02:44:20,370 --> 02:44:26,670 | gonna go higher. We still have a lot of divergence on that NASDAQ versus that low on the s&p. |
| 817 | 02:44:36,840 --> 02:44:49,800 | So take a step back for a moment. And think about what we've talked about this morning, trying to wind this thing down. We looked at the idea that the sell |
| 818 | 02:44:49,800 --> 02:45:02,760 | side below that 4113 level would be attacked. It was it hasn't been a lot of movement below that. We keep Reaching lower, but each low has been shallow, |
| 819 | 02:45:03,840 --> 02:45:15,690 | making lower lows, yes, but they're shallow. At the same time, when we hit that 41 650 level, which was outlined from the regular session hours, go back and |
| 820 | 02:45:15,690 --> 02:45:28,080 | listen to the video, I show you exactly where it's at. This lower low here is not being met with the NASDAQ while we hit 41 06 50 After taking sellside |
| 821 | 02:45:28,080 --> 02:45:42,930 | liquidity, and nothing really happening after the session open at 930. So all those factors, you can converging on one another. And we mentioned the volume |
| 822 | 02:45:43,080 --> 02:45:58,770 | imbalance here, it offered it and then from here, up to the breaker that's five handles. Five handles in slop events are getting stopped out. If you use the |
| 823 | 02:45:58,770 --> 02:46:06,060 | logic I would have used if I was in a trade, I would have been stopped out on the balance. If anything was left over, I would have been removed from that |
| 824 | 02:46:06,090 --> 02:46:19,050 | position here. But still better than the entry down here at the moment balance. The takeaway is right now, given everything about line this morning, and why it |
| 825 | 02:46:19,050 --> 02:46:29,520 | should be like this or why we expect it to be like this. You don't want to force it or try to trade in these conditions. Because it's harder, it's much much more |
| 826 | 02:46:29,520 --> 02:46:42,600 | harder than it needs to be. There's there's other conditions and market setups that are going to be a lot better for you as a trader to focus on than that of |
| 827 | 02:46:42,630 --> 02:46:54,480 | doing simply because you have time you took the day off because RCTs live streaming. Alright, so now we have a nice run above the breaker watch. Now you |
| 828 | 02:46:54,480 --> 02:47:02,520 | think I gotta wait for to trade away and come back down. You can trade right in that breaker. I shouldn't say it that way. Because you're going to take the |
| 829 | 02:47:02,520 --> 02:47:13,080 | entry, watch and see if the price if it can come back down and just touch the top of this in the same candle. It can do that. It does not need to leave and |
| 830 | 02:47:13,080 --> 02:47:16,350 | come back to it. It can. That's fine. It's how I teach it. |
| 831 | 02:47:23,430 --> 02:47:31,860 | So again, be mindful the love here. I'm gonna take this away. So we can look more at the chart for the divergence between the NASDAQ failing to make that |
| 832 | 02:47:31,860 --> 02:47:42,360 | lower low. So this is like a turtle soup. How do you treat turtle soup? It takes the low out. It's at a level I already predefined which was the 41 06 50 level |
| 833 | 02:47:42,390 --> 02:47:50,730 | we've mapped out earlier this morning. And then we wait for something to indicate that it's going to go higher. So what is that? We have a failure in |
| 834 | 02:47:50,730 --> 02:48:01,950 | NASDAQ making a lower low. It didn't do so when when the s&p did go lower than we rally. So we did rally? Do I need to shift the market structure on it? No. |
| 835 | 02:48:02,190 --> 02:48:10,590 | Turtle suits don't require that. That's totally different. You're trading external range liquidity when you're trading turtle suit, what is that the low |
| 836 | 02:48:10,590 --> 02:48:20,250 | here has sell side, it takes that sell side here, then it breaks away. All I need is one PD array. It could be a fear of a gap. It could be the last enclosed |
| 837 | 02:48:20,250 --> 02:48:29,490 | candle if there's a fair backup afterwards forming or in this case, as I outlined, see that volume imbalance there it is. trades down into it and then |
| 838 | 02:48:29,520 --> 02:48:40,410 | rallies I told you that the stock will be below that volume imbalance with a logic that I've been teaching consistently throughout all the concepts. If |
| 839 | 02:48:40,410 --> 02:48:51,420 | you're bullish, you got to find a PDE array that's a discount and you have to have it showed you a defined level where below midpoint of a fair value gap or a |
| 840 | 02:48:52,110 --> 02:49:04,710 | quarter block. After a sellside liquidity pools been rallied, you went below it then you can trust what your stock can be placed. I'd like to see it run from |
| 841 | 02:49:04,710 --> 02:49:12,870 | here. It doesn't necessarily need to trade back down here. I would like to not do it though. But if it hit it I would expect it to react and the advice out |
| 842 | 02:49:12,870 --> 02:49:22,080 | there I tell you me I drink two bottles of water and it feels like I got a gallon it's working through me |
| 843 | 02:49:33,090 --> 02:49:47,190 | another thing new traders feel that is as a source of trouble is if they get into a trade and it gets stopped out. And they have to get back in to get the |
| 844 | 02:49:47,880 --> 02:49:57,690 | the final portion of the movie we're hoping for. They think that that is a lack of skill. No, it's not a lack of skill. If you're aware that you can still |
| 845 | 02:49:57,750 --> 02:50:09,390 | engage the marketplace and enter a game In, how's that a lack of skill, it's not a lack of skill, you're still seeing opportunity you're engaging. Alright, so |
| 846 | 02:50:09,390 --> 02:50:19,770 | now watch this one, we hit the breaker here we round above it trade back down in completely, repriced did the breaker, see this down close candle over here we |
| 847 | 02:50:19,770 --> 02:50:29,850 | have the fair value gap order block here for that mean threshold so we'll use what's got to be below the old low because that's at this level is here. So if |
| 848 | 02:50:29,850 --> 02:50:42,000 | you were trying to use this as an entry, your stop would have to be below the old low so you use like the rejection block here which is this price that |
| 849 | 02:50:42,000 --> 02:50:46,050 | closing price right there. I'm trying to see you here 41 1250. |
| 850 | 02:50:52,500 --> 02:50:56,430 | Again, observe how difficult or how fast it fails on |
| 851 | 02:51:06,630 --> 02:51:20,790 | you'll see when we have a much more cleaner day how it's much more engaging but these are the lessons in that right there I think it would have been 12 right |
| 852 | 02:51:20,790 --> 02:51:33,030 | there it's much cleaner price action it's faster you'll see the runs easier. And you'll see everybody have a different carnival like atmosphere |
| 853 | 02:51:43,500 --> 02:51:44,520 | claim and balance |
| 854 | 02:52:03,000 --> 02:52:13,530 | now looking at this we rallied up we failed to take out that high we're back below that old low remember the old low that was telling you that for where the |
| 855 | 02:52:13,530 --> 02:52:15,630 | sell side was that's over here |
| 856 | 02:52:27,450 --> 02:52:36,300 | so we're returning back into the old low, might want to sleep a little bit, but there's nothing down here with the exception is old fare Vega. That's the only |
| 857 | 02:52:36,390 --> 02:52:46,890 | inefficiency but has been repriced to does it need to come back down into it could touch that again. But if it traded down below this then it's then we're |
| 858 | 02:52:46,890 --> 02:52:58,530 | going lower on the day not just to take out the love but we're going lower on the day and why do I say that because we've spent lots of time trying to go |
| 859 | 02:52:58,530 --> 02:53:14,040 | lower below that low which is this level here. We tried multiple times going back above it and you try once more here and we fail. So the last line in the |
| 860 | 02:53:14,070 --> 02:53:25,530 | sand if you will for any potential run up into that old gap from yesterday's trading he would have to mount that rally into this fairway get higher otherwise |
| 861 | 02:53:25,560 --> 02:53:32,280 | below that we go lower below this and that would look like |
| 862 | 02:53:37,469 --> 02:53:37,949 | seeing |
| 863 | 02:53:46,800 --> 02:53:49,590 | try to get the daily chart nothing on it |
| 864 | 02:54:03,719 --> 02:54:21,059 | see this candles high book right here. This candles high at 409 1.25. If we take out the low again, we could expand down into that area there |
| 865 | 02:54:29,580 --> 02:54:32,070 | and we're below the fair pay gap now so. |
| 866 | 02:54:43,320 --> 02:54:51,420 | It's very, very difficult for me to have all this stuff on the chart and talk to you about it. But I guess there's no other way for me to communicate for you to |
| 867 | 02:54:51,420 --> 02:54:52,890 | track what I'm seeing. |
| 868 | 02:54:58,770 --> 02:55:10,320 | So with the exception of that diver urgence in NASDAQ not making that lower low, we're still consolidating. How far if it takes out that low? Can it go? Well, |
| 869 | 02:55:10,320 --> 02:55:31,740 | I'll show you on a daily chart here to hear. So 409 5.25, and then 409125, watch that fair value get that we had here, I can bump up up underneath that. treat |
| 870 | 02:55:31,740 --> 02:55:44,550 | that as resistance. And I'm aware that this probably looks like I'm enticing you to do a lot of trades. None of these are trades. These are all observations for |
| 871 | 02:55:44,550 --> 02:55:53,730 | you to study and see which one would you trust more as a trader, which one makes more sense to you pattern wise, if you want to call it that? |
| 872 | 02:56:03,900 --> 02:56:13,710 | Mark that level. It's one standard deviation is what I'm measuring. So basically, what I'm doing is I'm taking this high, down to that low and it's |
| 873 | 02:56:13,710 --> 02:56:21,030 | like a fulcrum point, watch and see if there's any sensitivity once it hits that for Vega. It can trade into the fairway get into consequent COURAGING with this |
| 874 | 02:56:21,030 --> 02:56:31,620 | with too. So just be mindful that I'm looking at that. So it can hit that and then trade below this for sell side. But anyway, I was saying was this high, the |
| 875 | 02:56:31,620 --> 02:56:33,810 | fib is essentially anchored to |
| 876 | 02:56:40,139 --> 02:56:51,359 | there. So this point, in this point, here is what I'm putting in the FIB one, and this is acting as a fulcrum point. So if it were to go lower, if it was to |
| 877 | 02:56:51,359 --> 02:57:00,629 | go below this low, how far can it go? The same distance from this low to the high, you projected from that load down? That would be one standard deviation. |
| 878 | 02:57:01,109 --> 02:57:13,109 | So one standard deviation is that and then that daily, old high, which would reprice that entire by Sanibel sign efficiency, which I know is a lot of things |
| 879 | 02:57:13,139 --> 02:57:20,429 | being said most of you probably wouldn't understand. But go back and listen to the video I just showed you on a daily chart what I was referring to, but that |
| 880 | 02:57:20,429 --> 02:57:29,369 | would be a level that would look forward. If it was to take out that low there in immediate as much as that if it were to come out of the blue with a with a |
| 881 | 02:57:29,369 --> 02:57:33,659 | down day. I think that's going to be it |
| 882 | 02:57:49,590 --> 02:58:00,000 | when it's clean, you won't have all of these conflicting PD arrays. How do you know which one to use? How do you know which one to pick? Most of the time, |
| 883 | 02:58:00,030 --> 02:58:09,330 | you're asking that during periods of consolidation like that, and this is the problem of trading in this environment, you won't know. Whereas if you have a |
| 884 | 02:58:09,330 --> 02:58:20,370 | run that's established, and it's clearly making a way to a old high or low or something above the marketplace that would be inefficient. That tendency to want |
| 885 | 02:58:20,370 --> 02:58:34,980 | to go that direction strongly makes it easy to see which pdra exists because it doesn't have a plethora of conflicting fare a gap and volume imbalance. Order |
| 886 | 02:58:34,980 --> 02:58:45,390 | blocks, they're all converging in small little range between the high formed at 951. And the low formed at 1028. So if the market is being held in |
| 887 | 02:58:45,390 --> 02:58:56,580 | consolidation, as we clearly see it is here. Every time it creates a, an area where I would like to participate in, it doesn't guarantee it's going to deliver |
| 888 | 02:58:56,610 --> 02:59:07,230 | it just means that there's more of them forming. And because there's more than forming, there's conflicted analysis presented by that. So it's Imagine your |
| 889 | 02:59:07,230 --> 02:59:20,430 | best buy scenario, or setup and your best sell scenario for me at the same time. Which one do you use? Think which one are you going to use? Who knows, right? |
| 890 | 02:59:20,700 --> 02:59:29,880 | Left the problem of trading and conflicted consolidations like this. You don't know no matter what pattern whatever methodology you use, it's kind of present |
| 891 | 02:59:29,880 --> 02:59:36,990 | both sides of the coin constantly. It's going to keep flipping the coin and heads has enough opportunities in the day to lose money and tails has enough |
| 892 | 02:59:36,990 --> 02:59:46,740 | opportunity to lose money in the day. And you don't realize before long you know you've wrecked yourself and you've done damage to yourself and drawing down |
| 893 | 02:59:47,190 --> 02:59:59,610 | losing and then at the end of the day you look at it. I wish I saw a news consolidation newest choppy but what it should have could have doesn't put the |
| 894 | 02:59:59,610 --> 03:00:12,270 | money back In your account, does it it doesn't fix the pride issue that you feel you have to know, with a great deal of conviction. Where is it likely to go |
| 895 | 03:00:12,270 --> 03:00:27,540 | next? I cannot make this any more paramount than then I'm trying to do today. You have to know, you have to know, where is it going. And I know there's going |
| 896 | 03:00:27,540 --> 03:00:36,720 | to be people that say, you don't know if it's going to go there. No, nobody knows what the great deal of a surety that it's going to go there. But you can |
| 897 | 03:00:37,230 --> 03:00:47,280 | look at price action and measure from previous price runs and what price usually does. And it's never an indication what it's going to do in the future, it's not |
| 898 | 03:00:47,280 --> 03:01:01,380 | a guarantee doesn't mean it's going to pan out that same way, it just means that all things being equal, it's likely to do a run to an old low or an old high. |
| 899 | 03:01:02,970 --> 03:01:10,830 | Whatever one is likely to occur in a better cleaner environment where it's not being held in consolidation like this, the mark is not being permitted to move. |
| 900 | 03:01:12,330 --> 03:01:23,370 | So when it's like this, you're forced to sit on your hands and then wait for it to move, get out of this mess and not necessarily a breakout because I'm not a |
| 901 | 03:01:23,370 --> 03:01:36,660 | breakout trader. But once it moves and goes to a higher level timeframe key level then we can anticipate a specific price run and then it's easier to do |
| 902 | 03:01:36,660 --> 03:01:47,460 | that because when those occur excuse me the stomach has talked about I'm starving. There's a volume imbalance in here it's touching the top of the fair |
| 903 | 03:01:47,460 --> 03:01:59,250 | value gap there and we're back in this volume of bounce there. So we're still dead center midpoint of the range between 951 and 1020 What was it 28? |
| 904 | 03:02:14,639 --> 03:02:16,589 | Watch this one |
| 905 | 03:02:45,870 --> 03:02:47,400 | so we have a fair a gap in here |
| 906 | 03:02:56,219 --> 03:03:03,329 | a swing highs broken while I'm in balance watch and see if there's any reaction after repricing to it in here. |
| 907 | 03:04:03,330 --> 03:04:11,610 | This lower here, we're in consolidation. So you got to look and see what has been taken recently, cell size has been taken |
| 908 | 03:04:19,139 --> 03:04:20,519 | so where is the buy side? |
| 909 | 03:04:38,910 --> 03:04:48,660 | Even in consolidations is going to run from buy side the sell side by side the sell side. What is it just recently taken? Sell side to there's buy side and |
| 910 | 03:04:48,660 --> 03:04:52,470 | there's the delivery to the 4121 level. |
| 911 | 03:04:57,629 --> 03:05:14,069 | Now that doesn't mean anything He's absolutely nothing. But what did you learn today? You learned how to anticipate choppy opens at 930. If discovered what |
| 912 | 03:05:14,069 --> 03:05:25,979 | it's like to be in high resistance liquidity runs, which is nerve racking, it's very frustrating. You seen the potential turning point with the SMT, between the |
| 913 | 03:05:25,979 --> 03:05:39,119 | NASDAQ low and s&p, you've seen the conflicting analysis that even though there may be a fair value gap, there may be a waterblock, there may be a volume |
| 914 | 03:05:39,119 --> 03:05:50,519 | imbalance, without having a clear idea of where the markets likely to go. Like, where's it wanting to go? If you don't have that, everything else is going to |
| 915 | 03:05:50,519 --> 03:06:01,649 | hurt you. And if the markets not going to move, nothing's gonna work. It's gonna go back and forth, back and forth. But when you get closer to that lunch hour, |
| 916 | 03:06:03,029 --> 03:06:25,589 | and usually around 1050 to 1010. In that area, there's a lunch macro. Okay, 1050. To 1110. I want you to annotate this on your charts every day. Study what |
| 917 | 03:06:25,589 --> 03:06:36,719 | price is doing, or don't do that. Okay, annotate your chart like that. And just, I guess, record it, and annotate it in a way where you know what you're |
| 918 | 03:06:36,959 --> 03:06:48,449 | referencing there. New York lunch, macro. In your notes, we better if you had your annotation visible, right. |
| 919 | 03:06:59,610 --> 03:07:11,820 | And you want to study when the markets consolidating? Okay, you're gonna get that price range between 1050 and 1110. What that does, it's, it's kind of like |
| 920 | 03:07:11,820 --> 03:07:25,320 | the last ditch before? Yes, traders do take lunch. Okay, they absolutely do take lunch, the algorithm doesn't take lunch, but it likes to stimulate the volume |
| 921 | 03:07:25,530 --> 03:07:39,030 | and sentiment going into that lunch hour. Because lunch hour can be a pause and continuation of a trending day. Or it can be a reversal. Or it could just stay |
| 922 | 03:07:39,510 --> 03:07:48,480 | sideways and do nothing and chop. Here's the wonderful thing about this 1050 till 1110. It doesn't matter which one of those conditions are there, you're |
| 923 | 03:07:48,480 --> 03:07:59,580 | going to see a move form between 1050 and 1110. And what is likely to occur is where hasn't that liquidity been tapped into yet. And that's what I was walking |
| 924 | 03:07:59,580 --> 03:08:09,300 | you through here. We've already seen sales side taken. Where's by side here, and we're I've outlined the here. And if it goes to that level, it's going to expand |
| 925 | 03:08:09,300 --> 03:08:25,740 | up into that area here. Now, if it was taken out that low, here, I mentioned that we would look for it to go here. We didn't take the low out. We took a |
| 926 | 03:08:25,770 --> 03:08:35,940 | market shift bullish here. So as you're watching this one here, even if it just trades in there, that's where you enter. It's called close proximity entries. |
| 927 | 03:08:36,300 --> 03:08:45,930 | You don't need a breaker, okay, you don't need a breaker to trade above and come back down and touch it. You can do that. That's how I taught it. But I don't, I |
| 928 | 03:08:45,930 --> 03:09:00,450 | don't require just that. If I know where I'm likely to see price go to buy side and buy side between 1050 and 1110. You're gonna see a price run originating |
| 929 | 03:09:00,450 --> 03:09:10,590 | then it will happen regardless if there's a consolidation day reversal day, or is it trend continuation after lunch, it doesn't matter, you're going to see a |
| 930 | 03:09:10,620 --> 03:09:19,380 | price run begin at that it's a smaller segment of price action and time. And it's going to run for liquidity, it's going to run for the liquidity that has |
| 931 | 03:09:19,380 --> 03:09:35,580 | not been tapped yet. And that's what you're seeing here. Okay, the levels inside the the consolidation between 920 I'm sorry, 951 and tend to eat while they're |
| 932 | 03:09:35,580 --> 03:09:47,160 | in there, everything is going to be conflicting. But once you get to 1050 to 10 I'm sorry 1050 to 1110 that lunch macro and you've seen me do executions of this |
| 933 | 03:09:47,190 --> 03:09:59,550 | on my Twitter feed. It's based on this logic. You have to look for where hasn't been tapped into yet what hasn't been affected who hasn't been upset? Where's |
| 934 | 03:09:59,550 --> 03:10:09,600 | the pain? threshold for the people that feel the safest? Well, anyone with a stop above this high felt safest, especially when it dropped from here and went |
| 935 | 03:10:09,600 --> 03:10:18,780 | down lower than that low there. And then it created short term high trading back down and and then rally after that fair value got once it ripped higher above |
| 936 | 03:10:18,780 --> 03:10:28,290 | here, that is a shift in market structure during a specific time of day 1050 to the 1110. That's algorithmic has nothing to do with harmonic patterns. It has |
| 937 | 03:10:28,290 --> 03:10:36,960 | nothing to do with Elliott Wave, nothing supply and demand. It's absolutely internally built, it's part of it, it's codified it's code, it's there, it will |
| 938 | 03:10:36,960 --> 03:10:47,580 | run for liquidity that has not been tapped. Now, this many times can be a key point for the day, and it never returns back down below it or above it in |
| 939 | 03:10:47,580 --> 03:10:59,640 | reference to if it was going lower. I'm not teaching it. For you to have that understanding alone. It's for you to study how to if you're watching these |
| 940 | 03:10:59,640 --> 03:11:09,150 | consolidation days like this study between 1050 and 1110. And see if you don't get a price run like this. Don't take my word for it, go back and through charts |
| 941 | 03:11:09,150 --> 03:11:29,670 | and go forward with it. We've seen how they excuse me, they opened it and work that old low, multiple times inducing new shorts to chase it going lower. I |
| 942 | 03:11:29,670 --> 03:11:37,890 | mentioned this level down here, that's a fulcrum point it has to go below that low. If it goes below that low then see lower prices. But it didn't go lower |
| 943 | 03:11:37,890 --> 03:11:58,530 | than that. We had Southside taken. This right here is returned back down in sorry. Into that Fairbury got right here. That price run to here. This is your |
| 944 | 03:11:58,530 --> 03:12:08,490 | last like bus stop before you get to your your destination. If you don't get on that bus, you didn't get known. So I said watch this one here. As soon as it |
| 945 | 03:12:08,490 --> 03:12:16,950 | traded into it, or into this candle here is close as you can get inside that volume of balance. That's it. Now watch what happens. I'm going to look in this |
| 946 | 03:12:16,950 --> 03:12:19,320 | small little segment of price action right here. |
| 947 | 03:12:27,059 --> 03:12:40,529 | Okay, actually, I mean, I moved it wrong. Sorry. Make sure I do it right. Okay, and inside this little area, I'm going to change the color to |
| 948 | 03:12:47,459 --> 03:13:06,539 | yellow, that stands out. It's not perfect, but it's enough to get our attention. So I'm going to drop down into a 15 second chart. What do you say? Like I say, |
| 949 | 03:13:06,569 --> 03:13:07,229 | What do you say |
| 950 | 03:13:12,479 --> 03:13:17,939 | to them close candles. High, Low. |
| 951 | 03:13:25,530 --> 03:13:42,390 | Vega order block inside the volume and balance, it trades down to it in them. That's your lunch macro, right there. Using the 15 second chart. So when you see |
| 952 | 03:13:42,390 --> 03:13:51,900 | me doing these big run ups, and I'm building and building and building, I may be recording the one minute chart, but you're not seeing me using all the other |
| 953 | 03:13:51,900 --> 03:14:04,800 | charts in front of me that I'm looking at that that right there is my my hammer. Okay. And when I swing that, it gives those big, nice price runs. So don't run |
| 954 | 03:14:04,800 --> 03:14:14,040 | away from this lesson thinking. beating my chest. Look how smart I am. Because I was showing you even in these conditions, it's difficult for me as well. And how |
| 955 | 03:14:14,040 --> 03:14:25,020 | you need to identify what it's likely to do to you as a trader. How does it How did it feel for you today? Watching price action? Were you frustrated? Were you |
| 956 | 03:14:25,020 --> 03:14:35,430 | anxious? Were you second guessing? Were you thinking that they changed the algorithm then not changing shit, okay, the bottom line is it's going to stay |
| 957 | 03:14:35,430 --> 03:14:44,670 | like this. It's going to continuously do this, but the market is going to do one of three things, okay? It's going to consolidate or it's going to go higher, or |
| 958 | 03:14:44,670 --> 03:14:53,580 | it's going to go lower. That's it. That's that's the only things that can happen for they don't trade that day because of a holiday. So those things are pretty |
| 959 | 03:14:54,030 --> 03:15:03,480 | straightforward. And unless you can frame doubt come to the markets likely to go higher to this law. level, this is my magnet and prices drop in liquidity, this |
| 960 | 03:15:03,480 --> 03:15:13,890 | is where the mark is going to reach to, if you can't clearly see that, in your analysis, you are gambling. And I don't care what methodology you use, or who |
| 961 | 03:15:13,890 --> 03:15:26,550 | you taught, or who taught you and, you know, any doesn't matter unless you know where it's likely to go to. There's no way you can be consistent. None, zero. |
| 962 | 03:15:27,510 --> 03:15:38,550 | Because every logic, even mine, if it's forced into the wrong conditions, where the market is not going to move, even it will fail. All my PDF arrays will fail |
| 963 | 03:15:38,550 --> 03:15:51,930 | if the markets not going anywhere, you have to have the most important element. Time. Time, nothing is going to happen in price action until it reaches a |
| 964 | 03:15:51,930 --> 03:16:03,090 | specific time of day, a day of week, a week of the month, month of the year. Seasonality, all those factors come together. And they agree like like pins and |
| 965 | 03:16:03,090 --> 03:16:14,340 | a tumbler lock turns. Everything comes together perfectly. When it's all those other factors we use can't frame the whole trade idea. On the basis of a simple |
| 966 | 03:16:14,880 --> 03:16:26,490 | order block or a fair value gap, there has to be other things. And you can see, when you're met with additional difficulty, it's next to impossible to feel |
| 967 | 03:16:26,490 --> 03:16:40,050 | confident. But when time enters the equation in the chat, things change. Okay, things change, things become a little bit more clear. And it's like this in the |
| 968 | 03:16:40,050 --> 03:16:47,910 | last hour of trading two. There's three macros that run in that last three hours, last hour trading between three o'clock and four o'clock, there's three |
| 969 | 03:16:47,910 --> 03:16:57,480 | specific macros. Not every day, there's all three of them occur, usually two, but always one of them. I'm going to teach you those this year, I will be in the |
| 970 | 03:16:57,480 --> 03:17:07,740 | pm session doing them. But today, I want you to record how you felt. don't communicate to me to Twitter, because I'm not reading anything on Twitter. |
| 971 | 03:17:08,010 --> 03:17:17,310 | Twitter is just for me posting. Like, um, when I tweet something I'm casting out there into the abyss, whoever's listening is going to listen, if you're going to |
| 972 | 03:17:17,310 --> 03:17:23,820 | ignore it, that's fine. I don't I'm not looking for likes, you don't even need to like them anymore. It's just for me to be reached out to you on days that I'm |
| 973 | 03:17:23,820 --> 03:17:37,830 | not doing the live sessions. So if you've enjoyed today, that doesn't necessarily mean that you found it easy. But if you found some insight from |
| 974 | 03:17:37,830 --> 03:17:48,720 | this, if it makes sense to see and understand when it's difficult how to navigate it, what to do with it. If it was helpful to you give it a thumbs up. |
| 975 | 03:17:49,230 --> 03:17:57,570 | Otherwise, I'll just catch you on an excellent I don't know when it will be the second one this week. So today's Tuesday, I'm quite certain it won't be |
| 976 | 03:17:57,570 --> 03:18:06,690 | tomorrow. So it'll either be Thursday or Friday. We'll do our next one. But I will tweet that schedule in time when we will be meeting again, by way of |
| 977 | 03:18:06,690 --> 03:18:17,790 | Twitter. Okay, so hopefully you got something out of this. If not, I apologize. I can't make the market do what I wanted to do. I have to wait for it to do what |
| 978 | 03:18:17,790 --> 03:18:25,830 | I know it is likely to do and there'll be better market days I promise you will be smiling. But you should be happy about this one because it's teaching you |
| 979 | 03:18:25,830 --> 03:18:34,200 | where you're going to lose money and blow your account. If you don't identify it. You will fall victim to that, like everybody else has done in the past. You |
| 980 | 03:18:34,200 --> 03:18:38,670 | won't know what's coming until it's too late. So until next time, be safe |