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ICT YT - 2023-02-07 - Market Review - February 07 2023

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-02-08 10:07

Outline

00:57 - Today’s review.

03:42 - Powell’s smoke and mirrors.

05:14 - How the market rallied up and then stopped dead in its tracks.

07:21 - Pre-recorded charts are not indicators -.

11:25 - How to use Twitter as a means to communicate.

13:57 - What is wild manipulation?

15:45 - How to use Twitter to track the market.

20:06 - One Minute Chart -.

22:39 - What’s your favorite entry point?

24:17 - Looking for 10 handles for trades.

Transcription

1 00:00:57,660 --> 00:01:04,380 ICT: Folks gonna have to just want to do a quick review for today
2 00:01:18,870 --> 00:01:32,730 alright, so I learned a lot of things today in live streaming. And thought I was toggling from one track to the next that you won't be able to see. And I didn't
3 00:01:32,730 --> 00:01:44,340 have that setup correctly. So I think I have it. So going forward, I was going to do recorded reviews, but it's a lot to just edit. So I'll just do this. Each
4 00:01:44,340 --> 00:01:57,120 time we do it, it's quicker. Once it's done, it's one and done. So if I make any kind of errors, or, you know, typical things I edit out, it'll just be the rough
5 00:01:57,120 --> 00:02:09,270 cut. That's the way we'll do things because it's too much time. And I have a lot of it 40 weeks of this. So alright, here's the daily Dollar Index. I mentioned
6 00:02:09,270 --> 00:02:21,330 this this morning. We were up inside this fair value gap. I mentioned how we were just about to come up into the top of it. And we ended up touching it later
7 00:02:21,330 --> 00:02:33,300 on in the morning. And then we saw it retrace, lower. That was a reason for concern. I mentioned how we had just a little bit of upside still for dollar.
8 00:02:33,660 --> 00:02:46,470 And then that would be a little bit of downside for Eurodollar. Cable Emini, s&p, and that will create a situation where it's not a lot of movement, but we
9 00:02:46,470 --> 00:02:53,550 start to be mindful of it. And I'll show you what I mean by that. We go into an hourly chart for Dollar Index
10 00:03:02,430 --> 00:03:11,850 here's the movement up into the top of that fair value gap on a daily chart notice the bodies of the candles how respect the fair value gap Hi, I love
11 00:03:11,850 --> 00:03:24,060 seeing that above, illustrating that to my students because it communicates number one precision, it communicates organization and boundaries. And if price
12 00:03:24,060 --> 00:03:38,190 can respect these types of boundaries provides, in my opinion, a probability in the future of it doing similar when other factors are supporting. So the market
13 00:03:38,190 --> 00:03:55,080 trades up and then we have that weakness intraday. All of this was Powell Fed Chair Powell smoke and mirrors. So let's go over to Eurodollar real quick and I
14 00:03:55,080 --> 00:03:58,500 believe I don't have it here.
15 00:04:38,820 --> 00:04:40,170 Bear with me one second, folks.
16 00:05:09,269 --> 00:05:24,329 So here's the Euro dollar today. As I mentioned, we had a little bit more downside. And then we had the market rally up, attacked by side liquidity, here.
17 00:05:24,329 --> 00:05:32,969 And if you look at this small little imbalance, notice how we have delivery from this candles, low back up to the close, we opened up next one deliver to the
18 00:05:32,969 --> 00:05:53,099 downside, start basically where this candles low is the candles low 1.07619. And the high on this one comes in 1.076 to two. So just a little bit above. I'm
19 00:05:53,099 --> 00:06:03,629 sorry, just a little bit about the below here. And then we completely return all the way back up to this range. Notice how it stopped right here, just by bumping
20 00:06:03,629 --> 00:06:22,799 into this candles Hi 07663 and 07663. So it leaves a small little fairway gap there. Why did it stop dead in his tracks, there is a balanced price range, both
21 00:06:22,799 --> 00:06:31,889 directions, we left it came back tested it, left it and came all the way back up. It can revisit the entire range, but it's generally not likely to go
22 00:06:31,889 --> 00:06:42,149 through. Especially if we have a fair a gap year they'll treat that later on, as we do here. And the high on this candle I think is interesting because goes to
23 00:06:42,149 --> 00:06:58,919 07666. Not that that's a scary number. I'm just saying that I find it interesting. It just went just a little bit of that so all again, all this is
24 00:06:59,519 --> 00:07:15,659 Powell chairman, they have a appointment to have him interview at one time today. And then they changed it later on. So all those were confidences, my call
25 00:07:15,659 --> 00:07:28,979 it that. And then we have, obviously the s&p Look at this. Now. These are not indicators. They log into your zone, like wow, it finally caught up with the
26 00:07:28,979 --> 00:07:44,549 indicator graph. They are the Dow Jones Mini and the Nasdaq many respectively just plotted them on line basis. And I covered all that this morning in the live
27 00:07:44,549 --> 00:07:53,789 session. So I'm trying to like just go over briefly. With a review that way, I'm not spending too much time because you guys have a lot to go through on the live
28 00:07:54,449 --> 00:08:05,669 stream. Alright, so I got with you all, eight o'clock or so this morning, I mentioned that I'm gonna find that chart up here.
29 00:08:14,790 --> 00:08:23,790 So this is the reasons why I like to do pre recorded because it allows me to have the charts exactly how I want them and I'm completely obsessive about how I
30 00:08:23,790 --> 00:08:31,680 present. And I want to see certain things look nice and neat. And I cover all this this morning. It's all in the last session. And I mentioned in the
31 00:08:31,680 --> 00:08:43,830 recording or live session that you'll see in recording now. This area right here, I mentioned this this morning as a potential for in the afternoon. If we
32 00:08:43,830 --> 00:08:54,570 fail to go much lower, nor to shake off any lower prices, the market would want to go back up into that during the afternoon. We got that obviously here. We
33 00:08:54,570 --> 00:09:03,180 turned up into it. And I pretty much ended the live session there. I covered the all of the difficulties of reading price action like this, if you're zeroed in
34 00:09:03,240 --> 00:09:15,420 on a very small timeframe, when you zero out your chart with about that much detail. It's a little bit better to digest. In that way you're not looking at
35 00:09:15,420 --> 00:09:23,580 every tiny little fluctuation and making a big to do about it when it's really not that big of a deal. Especially if you know you're going to small
36 00:09:23,730 --> 00:09:34,200 consolidation like this the best thing you can do. And I failed to mention this today because I was enthralled with all the price action in kind of communicate
37 00:09:34,200 --> 00:09:44,970 how you would eventually hurt yourself and in a day like this and I was communicating also how to predict a choppy morning session. So without stealing
38 00:09:44,970 --> 00:09:56,790 the thunder from the actual live session. Now let's move on into discussion beyond that. Alright, so looking at it here it's again rather choppy, but when
39 00:09:56,790 --> 00:10:08,310 you dial in on a very small timeframe like a one minute chart You're really just looking at too small of a market structure. Okay? Especially while it's inside
40 00:10:08,310 --> 00:10:20,130 of a consolidation, you can use micro market structure, like one minute and sub one minute like 15 Second market structure, when the market is moving, when it's
41 00:10:20,130 --> 00:10:26,850 dynamic when it's animated when it's trying to get somewhere real quick. And I was explained this morning, how it's very difficult to get a read on that. And I
42 00:10:26,850 --> 00:10:38,370 was showing every possible scenario, I saw, if I was trying to squeeze the trigger and do something in that small little range. I'm not going to say it's
43 00:10:38,370 --> 00:10:49,170 noise, because that defeats the whole argument that I make all the time. But it's not favorable for anyone to want to navigate in that until we get to a
44 00:10:49,170 --> 00:11:01,020 specific time of day. And that was kind of like the, the diamond of today's session. So I don't want to go into a lot here because like I teach it in the
45 00:11:01,650 --> 00:11:18,030 live stream. But let's go in, look at this run here. In the day, later, in the afternoon, after the lysing live stream ended, I tweeted, I went back to
46 00:11:18,030 --> 00:11:25,860 Twitter. And I don't know, if you have any questions, I don't know if you commented, I don't know if you hated what I did today in live session. Or if
47 00:11:25,860 --> 00:11:35,430 you'd loved it, I'm not looking at Twitter. So you kind of like want to use that just as a means for me to communicate. That's it. It's a one way transaction I'm
48 00:11:35,670 --> 00:11:42,540 tossing out there in the abyss, if I'm looking at a level, you'll be notified there. If I'm looking at a drawn liquidity where I think the markets likely to
49 00:11:42,540 --> 00:11:51,690 go up to or down to, you will be tweeted with that that's not a trade signal. It's not a invitation for you to take a trade. It's just simply for you to go in
50 00:11:51,690 --> 00:12:02,010 and observe real time. What it is I'm looking at, okay, so that way you can follow along tape read, when we're not doing live sessions. If you don't want to
51 00:12:02,010 --> 00:12:11,460 get a lot of tweets, and be pestered during the market hours, you want to turn off the notifications, otherwise, leave them on that way you'll even be
52 00:12:11,460 --> 00:12:21,270 prompted, you could take a look at your charts while you're working. And I'll leave that up to you for requests for forgiveness for stealing from the bosses
53 00:12:21,270 --> 00:12:33,000 time. I'm not advocating it, I'm just saying that's you got to take all the risks while doing that. So we had this level up here, which was a five minute
54 00:12:39,930 --> 00:12:53,550 screw up back here. Right up here, you see that? I mentioned this in a tweet. And the way I do it in case you aren't aware if you're new, when you subscribe
55 00:12:53,550 --> 00:13:03,480 to me on Twitter, and you can get my official Twitter account. On my YouTube channel, the upper right hand corner. On the main page, you'll see official ICT
56 00:13:03,480 --> 00:13:19,440 Twitter, that was the February February 3 2023. candle on a five minute chart, as you can see here, and I gave you the time, which is 12 colon 55. So that way
57 00:13:19,440 --> 00:13:28,890 it allows you to go into the timeframe on Yes, literally look at that candle, and you'll recognize it. And what I'm doing that for number one is I'm teaching
58 00:13:28,890 --> 00:13:38,670 you how to identify you may not be able to have the experience to see it right away and jump right to it with your eyeball. But I'm cueing you up before the
59 00:13:38,670 --> 00:13:52,290 market reaches up into it. So prior to it running up into that level, I tweeted us it note that right there, and we were trading around here. It reached up into
60 00:13:52,350 --> 00:14:04,650 today. And I'm looking all back down once it hit there I said Leave it alone rest. Because all of this is wild manipulation. Wow manipulation. And it's
61 00:14:04,680 --> 00:14:13,200 reminiscent of seeking destroy and seek and destroy is a market profile where you will literally get your 100 parts handed to you. If you don't know what
62 00:14:13,200 --> 00:14:22,890 you're doing, you hold on to a trade too long. You're gonna regret it. Market dips down ticks our sell side here in the morning session, I was talking about
63 00:14:22,890 --> 00:14:37,470 41 Zero, okay, and we ended up hitting one half of the point or two ticks below that and that comes in here at this low at 41. Zero. Prior to all of this run up
64 00:14:37,470 --> 00:14:50,190 into a level I tweeted later in the afternoon. Taking that on its own, okay, think about the level of opportunity that exists by knowing that type of
65 00:14:50,340 --> 00:15:11,040 information. I cover why the 41 Zero 6.50 level is considered at all this morning. This range over here Here is this imbalance. Oops. I know there's a lot
66 00:15:11,040 --> 00:15:19,050 better way to do this. But please, bear with me, okay, because this is going to save me a whole lot of editing time and compression time. So you don't really
67 00:15:19,050 --> 00:15:33,060 see too much of it here on the five minute chart, but I've changed to 15. Right there it is. That candle for that blue shaded area where price dip down into for
68 00:15:33,060 --> 00:15:46,470 discount comes in at February 1 22, a three at 1430 on time and your time always has to be set to New York local time. And that way, you'll always be able to
69 00:15:46,470 --> 00:15:55,230 calibrate everything on prompting you on Twitter, you'll be able to go right to the right candle and you'll be able to track everything else is following along
70 00:15:55,230 --> 00:16:08,070 with. Right so this imbalance on the 50 minute timeframe extends further up to here. So you want to have that on your chart. Presently right now we have
71 00:16:08,070 --> 00:16:10,830 buyside resting just at this high here
72 00:16:18,270 --> 00:16:19,710 and over here as well.
73 00:16:25,950 --> 00:16:42,600 You probably hear airplane go by I apologize. So high up this vantage point you can hear that airplanes. Alright, so I mentioned on Twitter, the timeframe was a
74 00:16:43,020 --> 00:16:43,500 woman
75 00:16:50,130 --> 00:16:59,640 going to cover the new week opening gap, and then this part and then we'll be done. So I promise I won't keep you too long. On Twitter I was walking you
76 00:16:59,640 --> 00:17:05,010 through for life, I can't recall because I don't have the right chart up.
77 00:17:29,490 --> 00:17:47,700 That's even skews. Alright, so we have a fear of a gap here, order block to close candles, market trades back down into that. And we're looking at how the
78 00:17:47,700 --> 00:18:01,500 market may reach up into 4130. And I said the draw would be 4134 and a quarter, which happens to be the low of the new week opening gap, or basically the
79 00:18:01,500 --> 00:18:12,240 opening price on Sunday. Okay, so I kind of like walk through that. What was it on Monday. And then just to show you where we're at with that. That's what these
80 00:18:12,240 --> 00:18:21,990 levels are here. Here's the Friday close, quote, encouragement, which is the midpoint of Friday's close and where we opened on Sunday. So the opening price
81 00:18:21,990 --> 00:18:34,440 on Sundays. Trading is here. And that's right, it's close. So we split that in half. That's this level here. And we mentioned this yesterday. That worked
82 00:18:34,440 --> 00:18:43,920 around. And if we're consolidating, remember I said about it when we're in a market that's consolidating when it's not trending, okay. These levels, these
83 00:18:43,920 --> 00:18:58,500 three specific levels not zone, don't think of it as a zone. It's too ambiguous, very specific levels. Look how price reacts to it, it's very respective of it
84 00:18:58,500 --> 00:19:11,520 there. And it gravitates right back to it here goes through it. Yes. Look at the lows of these two candles here. See that? Look at the respect of the consequent
85 00:19:11,520 --> 00:19:12,450 encouragement right there.
86 00:19:19,380 --> 00:19:32,970 And now we're through the buy side and we'll be looking for the upper portion of that range there. So all of this run up here and then way back down. The reason
87 00:19:32,970 --> 00:19:39,990 why I call it a seek and destroy is because number one, it starts off. Consolidated, it looks like you can find a trade if you're zeroed in real close.
88 00:19:40,590 --> 00:19:49,170 And every time you get in it takes the short term high out, takes the short term low out it keeps going back and forth, back and forth. And then finally you get
89 00:19:49,170 --> 00:19:57,570 this big run. And you think oh yes, nice big run, but this is the murder. For here. It comes all the way back down. Anyone that was long from over here is not
90 00:19:57,570 --> 00:20:09,300 allowed to be in this long And then keep on climbing all the way back up until we get to perhaps this area up here. So let's go into a one minute chart. And
91 00:20:09,300 --> 00:20:09,960 look at that
92 00:20:15,179 --> 00:20:31,199 nice pie Sanibel sauce on efficiency sellside. Taken, ran out, small little gap in here, lots of that. Not sure what the hell this was 4175 something from an
93 00:20:31,199 --> 00:20:36,479 earlier day. Don't worry, I'm not hiding anything from you, I just really don't recall what the hell that level was
94 00:20:44,190 --> 00:20:49,620 11 minutes remaining into this session here
95 00:20:55,470 --> 00:21:08,280 the last hour of trading, you want to really do a detailed study every day. And I'm going to ask you to use my annotations today on the live stream. Any day
96 00:21:08,280 --> 00:21:15,510 that I do a live stream, I'm not going to log anything on trading this is too much work I'm already doing a lot as it is. So the days I don't live stream I'll
97 00:21:16,110 --> 00:21:22,320 I'll log things that way you can go through your chart and look at it that way. So just use the annotations and the things that I mentioned during the live
98 00:21:22,320 --> 00:21:35,340 session. And that's plenty. Alright, so we've pulled back into the spa Sanibel. So some efficiency does it want to run run up into in touch the high end of the
99 00:21:35,340 --> 00:21:48,120 15 Minute city remember, I updated the range X expanded higher it was only five minute chart originally, as I mentioned this morning, and then we calibrated it
100 00:21:48,120 --> 00:21:51,450 to the 15 minute time frame, making it a little bit wider.
101 00:22:15,510 --> 00:22:22,800 I was actually surprised to see how many people actually was watching the live session today. A little intimidating actually. I mean, it's one thing when I'm
102 00:22:22,800 --> 00:22:39,600 on Twitter space, and I got like 15 16,000 to 20,000 Viewers within an hour or so after doing it. The 70 some 1000 people and listening to a live session. They
103 00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:48,990 the whole time obviously but that's a lot. It's a lot of people listening to somebody one time in new F bombs How about that?
104 00:23:03,030 --> 00:23:11,370 So that's actually a five handle run if you take a look at it from here
105 00:23:20,099 --> 00:23:31,319 hear that's your that's your favorite. Yeah. Okay, one single pass through, we use candles high here, and the next candles low. The difference between those
106 00:23:31,319 --> 00:23:40,649 two candles, that's your favorite you got right there. The market dropping down into consequent encroachment. That's the highest probability entry point, the
107 00:23:40,649 --> 00:23:50,039 easy guaranteeing that you're going to get in with the institution Alderfer entry drill, which is just at that low or one tick below it. So either one of
108 00:23:50,039 --> 00:23:59,309 those notice it's just two specific price levels. It's not a what would you call it a demand zone? Okay, demand zone. What do you do with the demand zone? How do
109 00:23:59,309 --> 00:24:09,419 you pick your price? Which one do you get in it? Yeah, it's too it's too ambiguous. We have a very specific criteria. And we're looking for those very
110 00:24:09,419 --> 00:24:11,879 specific price levels to be used as our entry.
111 00:24:17,190 --> 00:24:30,960 So from 4175 to 41, add to that seven handles and it doesn't even need to trade to the top of the 15 Minute fair agar or in his case, Sydney. And that's what
112 00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:40,770 I'm referring to when I talk about looking for entries for trades. If you can find something that's going to deliver more, and I prefer preferably 10 handles
113 00:24:41,070 --> 00:24:50,880 if it offers the opportunity for 1010 handles which in this case you can see it 4175 consequent encouragement which is the middle between this candle is high
114 00:24:50,910 --> 00:25:03,660 and that candles low and I'll show you what it looks like on the fifth. Like these interactive market reviews Oh, I see T's never gonna last year. Alright,
115 00:25:03,660 --> 00:25:18,300 so if you right there. Okay, so 4141 75 and a quarter. Okay. So that would have been, that would have been rather consequent encouragement. So from here up to
116 00:25:18,660 --> 00:25:28,440 the high of that 15 minute city very vague yet, which is the shaded area here is 4185. So that's essentially what 10 handles. And that's like the minimum
117 00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:38,340 threshold for me, when I'm teaching my son, look, if you're looking for five handles, look for a range that you have the potential not that you need it. But
118 00:25:38,340 --> 00:25:48,690 you have the potential to see 10 handles movement in your favor. So by outline this, I just showed it to you in this session, I expanded it to the 15 minute
119 00:25:48,690 --> 00:26:04,140 time frame, it's delivered here. Okay. So there's over 10 handles in that run right there. No cherry picking. And that is your last hour session. So my
120 00:26:04,140 --> 00:26:12,570 question to you is, does it seem complicated? I mean, it probably seems complicated at first, when you when you first listen to what I'm saying, because
121 00:26:12,570 --> 00:26:19,650 you don't understand the terminology. But once you see a few weeks of this, and you start seeing, okay, he's pointing to where he thinks it's gonna go. And
122 00:26:19,650 --> 00:26:27,900 waiting for this thing. He calls off a rager. It's only two price levels. I'm looking for institutional order flow, entry drill, or consequent encroachment.
123 00:26:28,260 --> 00:26:39,180 It's it that's easy. That is easy. Okay, that's easy, easy, easy. The hard part is knowing how to read the candlesticks live, what are they going to do next?
124 00:26:39,570 --> 00:26:48,690 Why should they perform a certain way? You don't need to be afraid, folks. Okay, but you have to be respectful of the risk. And you're all trying to do this too
125 00:26:48,690 --> 00:26:59,880 soon. You're risking your funded account, you're risking your sanity trying to chase it too fast. Just relax. I promise you, we're gonna have a whole lot of
126 00:26:59,880 --> 00:27:12,420 fun this year. It's costing you no money. And I'm showing you every single day consistency, precision, logic, real algorithmic theory in action, all time in
127 00:27:12,420 --> 00:27:24,150 price oriented. They're here, right here in front of you life. No cherry picked, no hindsight after effects that I'm removing everybody's excuse. You have no
128 00:27:24,150 --> 00:27:34,860 excuse now. I'm having so much fun doing it. I gotta tell you, I really am wondering what Twitter is like right now today. But nonetheless, I think we've
129 00:27:34,860 --> 00:27:45,750 covered everything for one day today. I haven't settled in on what I want to do for the next live session. Uncertainty won't be tomorrow. I'll let you know if
130 00:27:45,750 --> 00:27:54,540 it's Thursday or Friday. And again, the only way you know that for certain is to look at the Twitter's or Twitter, the tweets that are sent out on my Twitter
131 00:27:54,540 --> 00:28:04,800 account, and that we all know, I'll let you know when when we're going to meet again. Okay. I believe what we'll do is, we'll meet at 815 in the morning in New
132 00:28:04,800 --> 00:28:11,490 York local time when we do. And I'll just have simple charts to annotations. Because I spent a little too much time I thought I was gonna get through it
133 00:28:11,490 --> 00:28:20,370 sooner than I did this morning. This way, if I have all my charts annotated beforehand, I can literally show you the charts, you can screenshot them. And
134 00:28:20,370 --> 00:28:29,130 then when I go off that chart, and use live data, you'll have everything in front of you, you got the screenshot in front of you that the levels I'm
135 00:28:29,130 --> 00:28:40,410 referring to what I'm looking for. That way everybody is on the same page. And we'll walk through the morning until the session is satisfying to me. It doesn't
136 00:28:40,410 --> 00:28:47,880 mean that it's the end of the run for the day. It just means that that's enough for me for one day, because I don't want to spend my whole entire year on
137 00:28:48,030 --> 00:28:57,510 YouTube. But I believe it'll be time well spent together if it's done efficiently. And that's all I'm trying to do. So if you'd like what's been going
138 00:28:57,510 --> 00:29:04,290 on, if you want to be a source of encouragement for me, all I got to do is give me a thumbs up on this video. And I will catch up with you by way of Twitter
139 00:29:04,290 --> 00:29:08,280 tomorrow, I'm certain until I'll talk to you next time. Be safe.