ICT YT - 2023-02-02 - ICT February 2023 FOMC
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-02-02 12:56
Outline
00:00 - FOMC is working.
04:25 - Watching the liquidity in the market.
08:10 - Buyside and inefficiencies in the market.
12:31 - How the market needs to be rebalanced -.
16:41 - The low was pierced at 2:45.
23:46 - FOMC is not a test, it’s a case study.
29:08 - If I were making the market today, I would run it through these highs and then crash it back down.
33:24 - What game plan are they going to use?
38:36 - FOMC and the gap.
43:03 - Rip up to 4108 or first of all 4100?
Transcription
| 1 | 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:17,880 | ICT: I'm not sure if it's actually working yet |
| 2 | 00:00:50,010 --> 00:00:55,680 | okay, I'm not sure if y'all can hear me or see me but bear with me one second |
| 3 | 00:01:27,060 --> 00:01:37,920 | alright, it should be, it should be showing me I apologize I had a delay that I couldn't overcome |
| 4 | 00:01:54,030 --> 00:02:05,220 | I hear myself Java. So we are looking to FOMC I will be doing this each month this year, by the way, so that way it's not like a one trick pony. I want to |
| 5 | 00:02:05,220 --> 00:02:20,160 | show you why I don't make the trade these days. Even though you saw me get lucky this morning. I'm just worrying about providing something to keep you guys held |
| 6 | 00:02:20,160 --> 00:02:32,940 | at bay. So I'm looking at the 4091 and a quarter level. It's too smooth. Now do we run through that reject it and trade back lower that I don't know, like I |
| 7 | 00:02:32,940 --> 00:02:46,680 | really don't know. So because I don't know that I want to wait and see how we deliver at two o'clock. That first move usually is like not the real move. And |
| 8 | 00:02:46,680 --> 00:03:00,000 | then at 230 The real move comes in so that's kind of like a tsunami type effect so we're more or less observing anything noteworthy I'll I'll bring to your |
| 9 | 00:03:00,000 --> 00:03:05,640 | attention. Right now what as I'm watching that 4091 25 I think that's a little too suspect too smooth a |
| 10 | 00:03:11,790 --> 00:03:19,440 | lot of action hounds out there like the trade desk and gamble not me |
| 11 | 00:03:24,480 --> 00:03:29,910 | just a couple more seconds and then you'll see all kinds of volatility come in |
| 12 | 00:03:35,010 --> 00:03:35,700 | and here we go. |
| 13 | 00:03:40,770 --> 00:03:43,380 | So cell sites been attacked first. |
| 14 | 00:04:09,930 --> 00:04:20,970 | Now what I'm looking at here and I find a little bit interesting is how we're starting to show off right now with this high wasn't taken out. And this high |
| 15 | 00:04:20,970 --> 00:04:32,250 | actually is the consequent curtailment of the new weak opening gap. So we didn't go above it. We left relative equal highs here. So here and 1491 and a quarter |
| 16 | 00:04:33,180 --> 00:04:45,900 | by side I'm watching how they engage that nothing in here is tradable. All we're doing is observing where liquidity is and how the market wants to reach for it. |
| 17 | 00:04:46,290 --> 00:04:55,200 | And what it does once it does so. Let's see if it wants to swipe above 4082 and 4092 |
| 18 | 00:05:09,960 --> 00:05:24,090 | Don't push any buttons folks. I'm not enticing you do anything if I felt good about it and strongly about it, I'd be telling you don't touch it. Now can you |
| 19 | 00:05:24,090 --> 00:05:38,160 | treat it after like 245 New York local time, I believe you can. But I don't think anyone should be doing anything with it right now. And that's a, that's a |
| 20 | 00:05:38,160 --> 00:05:48,240 | general rule. I'm not just doing it just for today, it's a teach my students don't touch it at all, in fact, but it would be |
| 21 | 00:05:55,200 --> 00:06:07,920 | entirely misleading if I said I didn't ever trade it after 245. And as examples of me having done so, but I don't know what it's going to do beforehand. And |
| 22 | 00:06:08,010 --> 00:06:17,160 | because of that, that's a gamble. That's it's not even 5050 In my opinion, it's more likely to be wrong, that's how I treat it. So it's a matter of just let the |
| 23 | 00:06:17,160 --> 00:06:34,560 | market do what it's going to do. And after the 230 portion, because it's a two stage event for FOMC this move here and then the real move at 230. And you'll |
| 24 | 00:06:34,590 --> 00:06:37,380 | most likely see that in about 27 minutes |
| 25 | 00:06:43,260 --> 00:06:56,670 | I'm gonna hang with you guys until about three o'clock and then I'm gonna get off here Alright, so far, we've tried to go lower once more back inside the |
| 26 | 00:06:56,670 --> 00:07:09,330 | range prior to two o'clock taking out sellside here and watching this level and again, the larger pool of liquidity out here |
| 27 | 00:07:16,410 --> 00:07:25,230 | what's the benefit of doing this ICT if you're not going to treat it? Well, you have to understand what the markets showing you what you're observing is how the |
| 28 | 00:07:25,230 --> 00:07:34,110 | market seeks liquidity. And right now there isn't anything in terms of inefficiency except for this portion of price action up here |
| 29 | 00:07:39,420 --> 00:07:40,530 | this is by Side |
| 30 | 00:07:56,910 --> 00:08:02,400 | Show me when the buy and sell. It's a whole lot more things you have to understand before you do that. |
| 31 | 00:08:10,740 --> 00:08:21,330 | So we've had a bit of what looks at 2025 handles or so from the high here and really no follow through yet. |
| 32 | 00:08:45,420 --> 00:08:50,160 | Why anybody wants to trade right now is beyond me. This is a gamble. |
| 33 | 00:08:56,160 --> 00:09:10,170 | These levels are actually smaller PDA right? It's not important anymore. Someone's going to use the levels or lines rather. And the teeth |
| 34 | 00:09:18,480 --> 00:09:28,890 | efficiency. So what I'm observing in all this is we have buyside resting about this high and this high. So these are relatively equal highs. So that's to |
| 35 | 00:09:28,890 --> 00:09:38,010 | smooth in my opinion, much like the highs is 4191 and a quarter. Apart from that there is no inefficiencies except for this small little area here which is what |
| 36 | 00:09:38,010 --> 00:09:47,100 | I just annotated with these two lines. So above this level here, if it reached for if it reaches for by side, and that's saying we are on the same, I'm |
| 37 | 00:09:47,130 --> 00:09:57,450 | observing it just like you I'm studying it because I want to try to get some insight leading up to the 230 and then at 230 between 230 and 245 I might be |
| 38 | 00:09:57,450 --> 00:10:08,640 | able to see something that would be A case study. I don't want to call it a trade because it's going to entice your Okay, I'm getting my orders ready to put |
| 39 | 00:10:08,640 --> 00:10:22,830 | in for a live trade don't do that. But I'm trying to build the case for what would be in play at 230. These relatively cool highs, which is above that is by |
| 40 | 00:10:22,830 --> 00:10:33,120 | side liquidity. But how far above that, can we go? Well, I think if it goes above that, it's likely to go to 4049 still in there bounces to clear up the |
| 41 | 00:10:33,690 --> 00:10:45,180 | initial high. We have buyside here, which is going to go here, it's going to bump the 4092 level. But above these highs here, how far can it go? Well, you |
| 42 | 00:10:45,180 --> 00:10:51,690 | can go to consequent encroachment, which is the midpoint of this low to that high. |
| 43 | 00:11:29,130 --> 00:11:48,270 | Right, there's consequent encroachment I just mentioned. So that buyside is now purged. So I'll keep the level there just for annotation purposes. They went |
| 44 | 00:11:48,270 --> 00:12:00,450 | right up into the midpoint, which is outlined right there. So I don't think that is enough to justify accessing for an event like FOMC. So we're gonna see does |
| 45 | 00:12:00,450 --> 00:12:10,680 | it have a lot of energy to reach through the high end of this fair value gap in this Vega is a city so sort of balanced by Southern efficiency? Now, it's a |
| 46 | 00:12:10,680 --> 00:12:21,540 | mouthful. It means to spend leader this candle was a delivery on the downside, so it's offering sell side. So it's sell side imbalance. By side inefficiency, |
| 47 | 00:12:21,690 --> 00:12:31,020 | it's inefficient in its ability to offer anything except for downside. So the weights reprice to which is about to happen here. It'll go out and touch the top |
| 48 | 00:12:31,020 --> 00:12:43,530 | of that level. Here. We go now that's repriced, that's not rebalanced, that's not rebalanced at all. It needs to leave this range. Try to go to it here and go |
| 49 | 00:12:43,530 --> 00:12:55,530 | lower or go above it, come back down and then rally. So the only thing it's done now is this repriced, back to this it's not it's not balanced, okay, as much as |
| 50 | 00:12:55,530 --> 00:13:13,770 | it made seem like it is it's not so I'm looking at this high here now. Where retail traders have bet the farm on this going lower and paying they may be |
| 51 | 00:13:13,770 --> 00:13:22,290 | right today. But my mindset is always attack them said biocides above here |
| 52 | 00:13:47,550 --> 00:13:54,630 | I'd like to see it just aggressively run right over top this high and dig into this and then right above into 1492. |
| 53 | 00:14:02,070 --> 00:14:12,360 | The reason I say that is because look how many times the market has traded below old lows. These lows betrayed through it here. This low was traded to it here. |
| 54 | 00:14:12,840 --> 00:14:22,770 | This low was traded through here and rejected. Leaving this high in that high which is what I had here lined up for by side, we reached into that I mentioned |
| 55 | 00:14:22,770 --> 00:14:32,580 | that we would go into the city. This candles low this candles high. So midpoint of that constant encouragement. You saw it delivered there and delivered to the |
| 56 | 00:14:32,580 --> 00:14:43,020 | high end of it now. Now watch what we see here. We've completely went above and now we're leaving this range. Now it becomes noteworthy because if we have a |
| 57 | 00:14:43,050 --> 00:14:52,890 | willingness to trade away from it and come back on to it one more time, and it shows the willingness to not go back inside these two blue lines. That will be |
| 58 | 00:14:52,920 --> 00:15:00,570 | in my opinion, but it's too early because 230 is the real move. That would be something that I'd be interested in seeing if it could trade low We're not |
| 59 | 00:15:00,570 --> 00:15:09,600 | suggesting that here, I'm just thinking out loud, we're topped the charts. And this is what we're going to be doing mostly two times a week this year, I'm |
| 60 | 00:15:09,600 --> 00:15:16,170 | going to read the price. I'll tell you what I think's going to happen, why it should happen, why it shouldn't do certain things. But do not take what I'm |
| 61 | 00:15:16,170 --> 00:15:27,000 | saying today, as an invitation for you to be pushing the button, either today or in the future FOMC. If I was confident that I was going to be able to go in here |
| 62 | 00:15:27,000 --> 00:15:34,980 | and just navigate without having any harm to me, I would simply be just be doing it, I wouldn't be here talking about over the chart with you. I'd be in here |
| 63 | 00:15:34,980 --> 00:15:37,920 | pushing the button recording and doing whole business I can usually see me do |
| 64 | 00:15:43,650 --> 00:15:49,650 | I still favor the the buy side here. I think that's where we're going to rip into that. |
| 65 | 00:15:55,320 --> 00:16:11,370 | Now what I want to see is exactly how we trade after this high and 4092 is traded to the do we explode through it and trade into the 40 ones. 4100 rather, |
| 66 | 00:16:12,690 --> 00:16:31,440 | I don't know. But I just know right now I'm observing this era here, it looks just too clean. And it's this hot here. The head this high. And then we had all |
| 67 | 00:16:31,440 --> 00:16:46,380 | these attempts to go lower. And notice that this low was pierced here. This low was pierced here. And then this low was pierced here at the two o'clock. Driver |
| 68 | 00:16:46,380 --> 00:16:58,110 | when it first needed the first part of FOMC came back up to our pool of liquidity we were looking for consequent encouragement for repricing to the |
| 69 | 00:16:58,110 --> 00:17:13,530 | inefficiency here. And we've yet to go above this high to me any kind of staggering, and I guess Stalin shouldn't be trusted. I wouldn't trust any of |
| 70 | 00:17:13,530 --> 00:17:23,160 | that. And that's really the characteristic of this day why I tell my students not to trade it. Because it obviously if you're learning from me, chances are |
| 71 | 00:17:23,160 --> 00:17:31,740 | you're probably unseasoned as a trader, and you're not really versed in in terms of what it is you should be doing. And you're more inclined to want to push the |
| 72 | 00:17:31,740 --> 00:17:38,160 | button to get in here and to see what happens. This is a day where you don't want to push the button to see what happens because you'll find that it's |
| 73 | 00:17:38,160 --> 00:17:48,090 | extremely painful, and it can move real quick against you. And your stop loss might not be all that much help to you. too. That's the reason why I tell my |
| 74 | 00:17:48,090 --> 00:17:56,880 | students to try to get wise guys all the time. Look at this trade I need ICT says don't trade on that day. But here I am. I'm doing okay, well, why don't you |
| 75 | 00:17:56,880 --> 00:18:07,080 | do it live. There are always those kinds of guys. And that to me is irresponsible for a mentor for anyone to come out and encourage new traders new |
| 76 | 00:18:07,080 --> 00:18:16,590 | students, they have not proven themselves to be disciplined to engage in an environment like this is equivalent to trading like on Non Farm Payroll |
| 77 | 00:18:24,300 --> 00:18:40,320 | about 15 more minutes, the real move will begin. And it should be starkly different than what we've seen so far. Since two o'clock. Usually the second |
| 78 | 00:18:40,320 --> 00:18:45,540 | part it happens at 230. That's the that's the one that brings the the real motion |
| 79 | 00:18:57,390 --> 00:19:06,420 | and so while you're looking at that little pink box over here, remember what I showed in last night's review. How did you know that was not a bearish breaker? |
| 80 | 00:19:06,450 --> 00:19:08,880 | I'll teach you this. Let me worry about this for right now. |
| 81 | 00:19:17,130 --> 00:19:28,050 | I'll take it off the screen that way doesn't entice you. Alright, so see the small little gap in here, right there. So this candle is high. This candle is |
| 82 | 00:19:28,050 --> 00:19:40,260 | low. We traded down into that that right there technically, on any other event or another day, none, not a FOMC day I would use that as a institutional order |
| 83 | 00:19:40,260 --> 00:19:49,800 | for entry drill and expect it to rally up and attack a by side liquidity or an imbalance above price. But that right there, you're gonna see a whole lot of |
| 84 | 00:19:49,800 --> 00:19:59,700 | that kind of stuff. When I'm doing live tape reading with you, I'll say Okay, watch how the market responds and respects this specific area here. And you also |
| 85 | 00:19:59,700 --> 00:20:09,120 | will And when you see me doing pyramiding, like when I'm buying, if I'm going long in something, and I'll do a core entry position that I'll start to trade |
| 86 | 00:20:09,120 --> 00:20:17,190 | with usually is like six contracts. And then I'll go down to three on the second one, and I'll just do one or if I'm really aggressive, I'll go six, four to one. |
| 87 | 00:20:17,850 --> 00:20:25,680 | And I'll build it up like that, you'll start seeing why I'm doing the pyramid entries where I'm doing because it looks sometimes if you especially if you're |
| 88 | 00:20:25,680 --> 00:20:35,460 | new, if you never really spent any time looking at what I'm doing or teaching, it'll look like it's just chasing price chasing price when I'm buying when the |
| 89 | 00:20:35,460 --> 00:20:46,110 | markets going against my trade direction, but it's going to specific price levels which would I call us at PD re P D array premium discount array, these |
| 90 | 00:20:46,110 --> 00:20:58,350 | are specific elements in price action that repeat over and over again and offer like a reason to anticipate price doing something. Watch the top of this candle |
| 91 | 00:20:58,350 --> 00:21:13,110 | here in here and in the middle that is mean threshold half of an order block whether it be a breaker mitigation block or to sustain your order block midpoint |
| 92 | 00:21:13,110 --> 00:21:24,510 | of that is mean threshold, any gap or any wick like this wick down here. Half of that is consequent curtailment. So consequent courage, contrary consequent |
| 93 | 00:21:24,510 --> 00:21:38,220 | encroachment is the midpoint of a inefficiency and or gap. Very, very sensitive price point in price action. |
| 94 | 00:21:59,970 --> 00:22:04,290 | About 11 minutes, the mood is about the change |
| 95 | 00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:21,060 | do apologize, I was trying my best to get back to the house. I was doing something with our RV. And it prevented me to get back here in time. I'm honored |
| 96 | 00:22:21,060 --> 00:22:35,760 | to be here quarter of two and give you a little bit of a preamble but I guess in a way it's better this way. Just get right into it just shy of the threshold |
| 97 | 00:22:35,790 --> 00:22:36,780 | with this low here. |
| 98 | 00:22:53,370 --> 00:23:03,360 | Again, as the market is what it is right now, I'm still favoring even though we had this movement here in this retracement down, I'm still favoring this area |
| 99 | 00:23:03,360 --> 00:23:13,890 | here to be engaged. Do we go up there and reject? I don't know, do we go up there and blow through it in trade into 4100? I don't know. Which is again, the |
| 100 | 00:23:13,890 --> 00:23:23,490 | reason why I'm telling you be careful. If you make money on this, please don't tweet to me because I don't care. I'm gonna say it's lucky in my head that I |
| 101 | 00:23:23,490 --> 00:23:25,770 | won't be rude and say anything to you in a tweet response |
| 102 | 00:23:40,230 --> 00:23:51,870 | so when you watch events like this, it's it's a wonderful study for liquidity. It's not a test for you to feel like you pass or fail. It's just a case study of |
| 103 | 00:23:52,050 --> 00:24:00,990 | observing what price wants to do next and where has it been already? We've had several instances right now look at all the lows on the on this chart here in |
| 104 | 00:24:00,990 --> 00:24:11,430 | the fractal or the portion of price I'm showing in this chart. Look how many times the lows were broken and now we're above them how many highs have been |
| 105 | 00:24:11,430 --> 00:24:25,680 | taken. We've had this high taken here you've had this high cleared with this one as well. This has been cleared on this one so we only had what one Hi this one |
| 106 | 00:24:25,710 --> 00:24:37,620 | impulsive price move right here has done all the work of clearing on this this in this but what did it leave this and the highest 4091 and a quarter, which |
| 107 | 00:24:37,620 --> 00:24:50,880 | when I look at price like this, in my mind, I'm thinking okay, the markets providing a reason for traders to trust those levels as what resistance. So when |
| 108 | 00:24:50,880 --> 00:25:02,040 | it looks like that, to me it looks like Candyland where the retail mindset and let me preface it by saying I might be You're wrong, okay? It may not ever even |
| 109 | 00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:11,160 | go up there could just completely cascade and go lower. And it's no harm to me, I'm not going to lose anything, I'm not going to be embarrassed because of it. |
| 110 | 00:25:11,160 --> 00:25:18,210 | Because I'm telling you, I'm not going to push the button here. I don't want to be in this environment. But you want to learn how to read price action from me |
| 111 | 00:25:18,210 --> 00:25:25,500 | this year. So I'm going to do this every time we have FOMC, I'm going to be dealing also with Non Farm Payroll, you're going to have any immersive |
| 112 | 00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:38,850 | experience with me this year. But I'm thinking that that 4089, three quarters level, which is this one here, and the 4091, and a quarter level is priming. |
| 113 | 00:25:39,750 --> 00:25:55,290 | Okay, priming is where you, you more or less, coax a certain mindset into being adopted, okay, it's inducing the idea that this is trustworthy for the purposes |
| 114 | 00:25:55,290 --> 00:26:06,990 | of lending resistance. So when a trader with less experience, looks at a market like this, and they think, wow, the market really bounced down from those |
| 115 | 00:26:06,990 --> 00:26:17,820 | levels. So therefore, what I can go short, and hopefully make a big move going lower during FOMC. And I can feel safe that my stock could be placed above that |
| 116 | 00:26:17,820 --> 00:26:32,700 | 4091 and a quarter level, or 4089, and three quarters. And then when two o'clock comes, they're vanquished. That's what my mindset is right now. That's what I'm |
| 117 | 00:26:32,700 --> 00:26:41,910 | seeing. That's what I think that's what I'm, that's what I'm co signing right now. If I'm wrong, if you can see irrelevant to me, I don't care. But if I'm |
| 118 | 00:26:41,910 --> 00:26:51,750 | right or wrong, it's engaging for you, as a student, look at this. And when you get it wrong, should you get it wrong. Go in and study what it actually did. And |
| 119 | 00:26:51,750 --> 00:26:59,100 | don't think to yourself, Oh, I got that wrong. If I would have done this with money, I would have made this much or lost this much. That's the worst thing you |
| 120 | 00:26:59,100 --> 00:27:09,900 | can do with this type of day. Just like FOMC it's like a carnival ride, you have no idea what the markets gonna do, I have no idea what the market is going to do |
| 121 | 00:27:09,900 --> 00:27:18,900 | on this day, which is the number one reason why I want you to believe me, when I tell you, the best thing you can do is simply wait until two to 45 quarter of |
| 122 | 00:27:18,900 --> 00:27:29,970 | three, or the last hour of trading than the normal routine kicks in. And that's fine. But I don't want to be a mentor that feels like, I gotta constantly |
| 123 | 00:27:30,000 --> 00:27:37,290 | encourage you to get into the marketplace I'm trying to be the mentor to tells you, you do want to cherry pick when you get in again when you don't want to get |
| 124 | 00:27:37,290 --> 00:27:49,710 | in. Because there's a greater degree of risk in a market event day like this than that of any other regular day. Even a high impact news driver, apart from |
| 125 | 00:27:49,710 --> 00:28:02,910 | CPI, you can still trade them. And that's fine. But this type of day can rip your face off. And it can be tricky. It could it could many times give you the |
| 126 | 00:28:02,910 --> 00:28:10,890 | impression you got to figure it out. Like for instance, I've already co signed and I believe that they're going to run that 4091 and a quarter that that's what |
| 127 | 00:28:10,890 --> 00:28:18,210 | I asked one subscribing to in front of all of you. I don't know how many people were watching me right now. But even if there isn't that many later on, you'll |
| 128 | 00:28:18,210 --> 00:28:26,790 | see the video because it'll be on my YouTube channel. And I'll either be correct or I'll be not correct in either way, I don't care. But I want you to understand |
| 129 | 00:28:26,790 --> 00:28:36,150 | that one of the best things that could happen right now is for me to be wrong. And then I'll be able to beat my chest and say that's why I tell you don't do |
| 130 | 00:28:36,150 --> 00:28:43,500 | anything like that because if the coach isn't himself not able to do at this day, why should you reasonably expect that you're gonna be able to come through |
| 131 | 00:28:43,500 --> 00:28:52,350 | it without having any harm done to you. So I'm trying to be that kind of mentor. I'm not trying to be the guy that constantly gives you crack to give you a new |
| 132 | 00:28:52,350 --> 00:28:52,770 | high |
| 133 | 00:28:58,320 --> 00:29:10,380 | watch the midpoint of this wick right here, which also lines up with this right here. See if there's any sensitivity there. No one works does it support price |
| 134 | 00:29:10,380 --> 00:29:11,730 | and doesn't want to go higher after that? |
| 135 | 00:29:26,100 --> 00:29:42,600 | Four Minutes for more minutes and then a lot of retail traders will regret having pushing the button today. In some other traders might be thinking they're |
| 136 | 00:29:42,600 --> 00:29:44,460 | way better than they really are if they get lucky. |
| 137 | 00:29:57,900 --> 00:29:59,340 | Just a few more minutes, folks |
| 138 | 00:31:43,290 --> 00:31:54,810 | If I were making the market today, I would run it through these highs to get up to around 440 108 to 4112. or there abouts could go to 4115 and then crash it |
| 139 | 00:31:54,810 --> 00:32:03,450 | all back down into here. That's how I do it today. I'm not saying that's what's going to happen. But that's what I do when I watch these events. When I look at |
| 140 | 00:32:03,570 --> 00:32:12,000 | when I don't, I don't look at non farm payrolls anymore because it's been really lackluster for the last. I don't know, eight years or so maybe almost 10 years. |
| 141 | 00:32:12,000 --> 00:32:22,560 | It's just It used to be amazing. You still have a lot of volatility. But what I'd like to do is when I'm practicing, I think to myself, how could I if I |
| 142 | 00:32:22,560 --> 00:32:33,870 | controlled price if I had the strings on the marionette puppet that is price? How would I manipulate them? And what would I do to do the most damage? Well, I |
| 143 | 00:32:33,870 --> 00:32:43,140 | would obviously look at what has happened here we've already taken out the cell stops. So there's traders that are caught short right now. They tried to sell |
| 144 | 00:32:43,140 --> 00:32:55,500 | short on a breakout. Anyone that's long headshell stop loss they're neutralized but now who's safe so far? Anyone short they'd saw this move here thinking it's |
| 145 | 00:32:55,500 --> 00:33:05,340 | great. So he wrecked them you run it up here deep, clears them all out. Get keep people caught on side, not one side the offside buying it and then rake them |
| 146 | 00:33:05,340 --> 00:33:13,860 | across the coals all you like to have in here and then everybody thinks nobody makes money trading. That's that's the idea I have in my mind might never even |
| 147 | 00:33:13,860 --> 00:33:21,780 | come close to doing that. But that's the type of thing I like to do. And sometimes it happens like that and then sometimes it doesn't. But that's the fun |
| 148 | 00:33:21,780 --> 00:33:30,330 | studying it and see how they do it. Because these particular days I don't have any insight on what game plan they're going to use which is a reason why I won't |
| 149 | 00:33:30,330 --> 00:33:33,720 | push the button three seconds and then the fireworks. |
| 150 | 00:34:13,170 --> 00:34:15,510 | Watch midpoint of this wick |
| 151 | 00:35:00,000 --> 00:35:17,700 | I'm still sleeping |
| 152 | 00:35:26,220 --> 00:35:28,500 | we go little bit of movement here now. |
| 153 | 00:36:53,490 --> 00:37:03,690 | matching the love when that wick Do we just go below a little bit and then rip it higher or do we aggressively go into our i Seven down cells on an efficiency |
| 154 | 00:37:04,500 --> 00:37:13,350 | which is this candle nothing here nothing here what I've taken any entries on |
| 155 | 00:38:32,670 --> 00:38:42,270 | now my mind I'm thinking why would they want to come down here? Well somebody might be long here and if it goes above these highs here and goes to like 4100 |
| 156 | 00:38:42,840 --> 00:38:50,160 | they could stand up make a lot of money right? So if they go down there and knock them out into this imbalance as highlighted then rip it all the way back |
| 157 | 00:38:50,160 --> 00:39:04,380 | across all this that would be the maximum damage and still do what I've outlined mentioned a moment ago Maximum Carnage is what I'm looking at all the time when |
| 158 | 00:39:04,380 --> 00:39:15,510 | it's FOMC who could be harmed the most and who's recently profitable How can you be taken out of the game |
| 159 | 00:39:22,410 --> 00:39:27,150 | the small gap here you want to see it go through that aggressively |
| 160 | 00:39:46,770 --> 00:39:59,550 | think if we get above that one. Now, if if we get above it, and come back down act as support with it then it should be violent to take out 4092 |
| 161 | 00:40:18,900 --> 00:40:34,620 | See it as they're allowing shorts to feel safe. Remember their stops above 4092 and 4090 which will be one tick above this one here, and then three quarters of |
| 162 | 00:40:34,620 --> 00:40:47,400 | a tick on three three quarter point rather well this one so just basically call it 4092. Because if it's going to go to 40 89.75 it's going to rip to 4092. |
| 163 | 00:40:53,160 --> 00:41:05,100 | You see how it just behavior there? We trade through the gap. This here, open traded down to the low of it and now liquid is still an expanding it's |
| 164 | 00:41:05,100 --> 00:41:20,730 | interesting, isn't it? It's almost like its own leash. Not on this day though. Now, here's the old farewell you got to be insensitive to it there. rewind the |
| 165 | 00:41:20,730 --> 00:41:22,530 | video later on when you can watch it |
| 166 | 00:41:32,160 --> 00:41:42,630 | now that's unfinished business. Okay, right here, this high and the 4092 and a quarter level it's unfinished businesses came all the way back up here. It's |
| 167 | 00:41:42,630 --> 00:41:56,130 | gonna rip through them. And there you go there and then there's the 92 Come on punted up there I feel kind of bad because I really wanted to be wrong today |
| 168 | 00:42:04,830 --> 00:42:07,080 | now some of you gonna think oh, I want to trade FOMC |
| 169 | 00:42:15,030 --> 00:42:26,040 | Alright, so now look what this is here. We have the low the high, the lower low. This is a breaker it can accumulate more Long's in this range here what range |
| 170 | 00:42:26,040 --> 00:42:43,590 | specifically here to here expand that out here so that's a breaker |
| 171 | 00:42:51,120 --> 00:43:10,830 | nourish your 92 cherry pit using delayed data that everybody's seen all around the world same time. Now does it rip up to 4108 or first of all 4100. |
| 172 | 00:43:23,760 --> 00:43:39,540 | Lot of jobs are being dropped right now. We have a whole year folks. A whole year Mr. Wizard. So right now, you want to screenshot this because it went to |
| 173 | 00:43:39,540 --> 00:43:50,670 | 4100. That's a nice run down off a fair Vega outline right here real time has a hit it. You watched it. I mentioned that would see this area here. Active |
| 174 | 00:43:50,670 --> 00:44:01,140 | Support. Open trade down below it expand that through. I wanted to see at least one down close candle in here. But it didn't offer it. So it's in a hurry to get |
| 175 | 00:44:01,140 --> 00:44:16,350 | somewhere. So I think 4108 4112 is doable. But right now it if you were asking me if this was any other day and I was in trading it, I'd have just about |
| 176 | 00:44:16,350 --> 00:44:26,340 | everything off the position and a stop loss that would be extremely tight, which would be anywhere between 4089 even to 4088. And if it went down there I'd be |
| 177 | 00:44:26,340 --> 00:44:38,250 | contented and not want to go back in for any other thing. Looking forward to rip 240 108 4112 And if it were to do that, I would close my charts and feel like |
| 178 | 00:44:38,280 --> 00:45:01,890 | I've done enough vanquished enough. You know, adversaries in retail on the altar of speculation pretty fun, isn't it? You both legs, no trend lines. Supply and |
| 179 | 00:45:01,890 --> 00:45:06,000 | Demand and new buying and selling pressure all price action |
| 180 | 00:45:11,790 --> 00:45:13,440 | almost at 4108 |
| 181 | 00:45:20,640 --> 00:45:24,420 | Come on I gotta at least fail somewhere they write for do you want to wait? Let's not get to that |
| 182 | 00:45:57,540 --> 00:46:03,810 | for the folks on Twitter holler back at me if you watch this live |
| 183 | 00:46:18,900 --> 00:46:33,480 | try and get a feel for that. Delay here. Here we go. Even when I'm expecting to fail, I can call it didn't get the 41 a week. So the high on this move here is |
| 184 | 00:46:33,480 --> 00:46:45,420 | 41 06. And watch the candles wick midpoint ring here consequent kreutzmann you want to see price stay above that |
| 185 | 00:47:04,530 --> 00:47:18,900 | oh, there's a 4108 when I try to be wrong, I can't be wrong. Good grief. 4112 Bang. That's it. You're done. It's over. Okay, you've watched me do it. You |
| 186 | 00:47:18,900 --> 00:47:28,680 | watched it live? This is what we're going to be doing two times a week. Okay. Now, did you see me push a button? No. Did I outlined everything explained what |
| 187 | 00:47:28,680 --> 00:47:37,140 | it should do what it shouldn't do? Yes. That's the part of this mentoring that you're not getting because you don't watch price action yourself. So watching |
| 188 | 00:47:37,140 --> 00:47:47,250 | it, having someone hopefully communicate it in a way where you can understand it follow along without pushing the button. Okay, if you follow this and you're |
| 189 | 00:47:47,250 --> 00:47:55,410 | long get out of the trade. Okay? Just get out of the trade and be content. Don't tell me about it. Don't show me what you made. I don't want to know about it |
| 190 | 00:47:55,470 --> 00:47:55,920 | okay. |
| 191 | 00:48:40,530 --> 00:48:54,360 | Put 4115 and 4125 as horizontal lines on your chart. And I think that would be pretty much the extent of it today. It may not even go that far. But that's I |
| 192 | 00:48:54,360 --> 00:49:06,360 | see that as a potential steal. But you saw my target 4112 What do you want oh eight, and the narrative of the fair pay gap to pick for you. And there you go. |
| 193 | 00:49:06,840 --> 00:49:20,460 | So that's gonna be it for me. Hopefully you guys have had a worthwhile in engagement with me. And hopefully nobody was too terribly confused. But the more |
| 194 | 00:49:20,460 --> 00:49:29,430 | you spend time with me this year, when we do it live, you'll you'll see things repeat. You'll see the ebb and flow about what the markets likely to do next |
| 195 | 00:49:29,430 --> 00:49:40,320 | where it shouldn't go, why should it go somewhere. And I didn't do a whole lot of jawboning I don't think usually I can be very animated with the word salad. |
| 196 | 00:49:40,320 --> 00:49:49,770 | But today, I tried to dis only talk when it was important. So that's going to be it. Hopefully you found it helpful. And if you did, just give me some feedback |
| 197 | 00:49:49,770 --> 00:49:56,580 | on Twitter if you didn't find it helpful, you keep it to yourself. Until next time, be safe. |