ICT YT - 2023-01-24 - 2023 Mentorship Price Action Review and PM Session Reversal Model
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-01-27 05:33
Outline
00:00 - What I was expecting and what actually transpire.
02:04 - Looking at the daily chart.
05:50 - Intraday charts for the current market.
07:57 - What is your power three?
12:29 - Do you miss trades? -.
17:25 - How the market rallied up to 4055 and a rejection block.
19:54 - What is a bullish breaker? -.
24:45 - The market is not willing to go lower, it is willing to reprice -.
27:00 - The fear of a gap.
32:23 - Selling opportunities in the near term.
Transcription
00:00 - What I was expecting and what actually transpire.
02:04 - Looking at the daily chart.
05:50 - Intraday charts for the current market.
07:57 - What is your power three?
12:29 - Do you miss trades? -.
17:25 - How the market rallied up to 4055 and a rejection block.
19:54 - What is a bullish breaker? -.
24:45 - The market is not willing to go lower, it is willing to reprice -.
27:00 - The fear of a gap.
32:23 - Selling opportunities in the near term.
| 1 | 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:21,090 | ICT: Hey folks, welcome back. So we're looking at the E Mini s&p. This is our daily chart here, and I'm zoomed in kind of tight. So I want to go over a brief |
| 2 | 00:00:23,340 --> 00:00:35,190 | outline of the daily range, what I was expecting and what was likely to transpire. And what actually did transpire. Before I get into this, you know, |
| 3 | 00:00:35,280 --> 00:00:42,360 | obviously, the longer I do this, more people are going to come to the Twitter account that I'm managing, and they're gonna come to the YouTube channel that |
| 4 | 00:00:42,360 --> 00:00:51,690 | I'm managing and listen in on the live streams that I'll be doing in February and throughout the rest of the year. And they're gonna come with their |
| 5 | 00:00:51,930 --> 00:01:02,100 | preconceived ideas and their disciplines or lack thereof, and they're gonna come with their opinion. And they're gonna say, after the fact, after the markets |
| 6 | 00:01:02,100 --> 00:01:11,910 | already done, whatever it does, they'll come in, they'll armchair quarterback and say, Well, everyone would have known about this, or everyone can see it was |
| 7 | 00:01:11,940 --> 00:01:22,920 | obviously this that and I think these same people don't have anything that they've executed on, or they'll show a video with results that were not recorded |
| 8 | 00:01:23,040 --> 00:01:36,240 | as they were doing them. And to me, it's a little disingenuous, you know, I'm out there in trying to point to certain things. And you, the viewer, are |
| 9 | 00:01:36,240 --> 00:01:49,410 | encouraged to go through your charts and watch and monitor the best you can. So, you know, when I get folks that do that on my Twitter account, I just mute them. |
| 10 | 00:01:49,650 --> 00:01:59,580 | So I don't get to see anything else they get to say because I'm not going to have a dialogue with that because you bring nothing to the table. So I want to |
| 11 | 00:01:59,580 --> 00:02:15,120 | try to keep things moving along this year and keep things on the focus. So if we look at the daily chart here, I have a high noted in the high was a potential |
| 12 | 00:02:15,120 --> 00:02:36,570 | target today. The highest up close green candles closing price that being right here. That was also an intraday target. And then we have this wick here, we |
| 13 | 00:02:36,570 --> 00:02:48,750 | split that in half, that's a target. This is a target this week here split that in half there consequent encroachment objectives. But this closing price here is |
| 14 | 00:02:48,750 --> 00:03:08,580 | a rejection block. This drop down with this candles low, this candles high. This is a fair value gap. It's classification as a fair value gap is a city sell side |
| 15 | 00:03:08,580 --> 00:03:23,250 | and balanced by side inefficiency. The market trades up leaves a small portion here on Friday. And then we have a new week trading Monday today. And I'm taking |
| 16 | 00:03:23,250 --> 00:03:33,360 | my attention back through this candle. Okay, now folks, listen, there's a lot of folks out there that like to say what I'm teaching is a relabeled version of |
| 17 | 00:03:34,770 --> 00:03:44,190 | supply and demand. It's neither supply and demand, or classic Support Resistance. Here's the thing that you need to understand about what I'm |
| 18 | 00:03:44,190 --> 00:03:57,210 | teaching, supply and demand and their supporters and people that you promote that idea will say don't cut through candles, they want fresh zones. Okay, I |
| 19 | 00:03:57,210 --> 00:04:07,410 | don't deal with zones I deal at specific levels. And I'm cutting through this candle. I'm looking past that. And going right back to this candle here. Which |
| 20 | 00:04:07,410 --> 00:04:21,750 | is what I taught one last week, Midpoint that was kind of quite encroachment, very naively two and a half. Okay, so that level when we project that through, |
| 21 | 00:04:21,930 --> 00:04:37,530 | now what I'm showing is, is the look back with pdra matrix. So we're looking at specific candles looking back in time, 2040 60 days. So the highest form of |
| 22 | 00:04:37,530 --> 00:04:49,920 | sensitivity in these key levels are going to be within the last 20 days. After 20 days, the market may respect those levels. I'm more specifically aiming at |
| 23 | 00:04:50,010 --> 00:05:01,890 | newer PV arrays within the last constant 20 days. Look back. So the range of the last 20 days is what I'm basically focusing Okay, so key levels, that would be |
| 24 | 00:05:03,780 --> 00:05:13,590 | February gaps Otterbox breakers, institutional reflection drills, consequent encroachment mitigation blocks, all those things, rejection blocks, old highs |
| 25 | 00:05:13,590 --> 00:05:28,290 | and lows, they're going to be salient to my preferred setups. And we're looking for that in my specific market. So right now I'm obviously focusing in on even |
| 26 | 00:05:28,290 --> 00:05:39,150 | the s&p. So that idea, that midpoint of that gap, that was the focus of what I was looking for this morning, and I started the day with giving you a chart on |
| 27 | 00:05:39,150 --> 00:05:47,670 | Twitter. And you can find my official Twitter account on the YouTube channel, their their main page, look in the upper right hand corner. And you'll see, that |
| 28 | 00:05:47,700 --> 00:05:55,470 | is the official ICT Twitter account. If you're not finding it from that link, you're probably watching someone else. That's not me, okay, I'm not going to |
| 29 | 00:05:55,470 --> 00:06:04,710 | sell you anything, I'm not going to take you to a telegram channel, I'm not going to invite you to a discord. I don't know, use WhatsApp. So if we watch |
| 30 | 00:06:04,710 --> 00:06:17,940 | this level hearing and projected forward, so here's the level. And I wanted to see it open, and then trade down to that level, and then create a candle that |
| 31 | 00:06:17,940 --> 00:06:29,880 | runs up into this swing high. Now admittedly, I was expecting this entire range to fulfill over the course of the morning session, consolidate during lunch, and |
| 32 | 00:06:29,880 --> 00:06:42,540 | then run up into that level here. During the pm session, I would have been back in the last hour or so to show you an example of that being ran out. The market |
| 33 | 00:06:42,540 --> 00:06:56,190 | decided to do it all before lunch. So we saw the market rally up obviously. And we want to see if we can have the ability to get through all these levels here. |
| 34 | 00:06:57,990 --> 00:07:10,830 | This fear I get high consequence encouragement, rejection block, consequent encroachment, and then finally into the Buy Sell liquidity here. So there's |
| 35 | 00:07:10,830 --> 00:07:24,120 | thresholds, okay, that levels each time the market goes higher, we're measuring whether or not it has the potential momentum energy, you might refer to it as |
| 36 | 00:07:24,120 --> 00:07:34,230 | trend. Does it have the likelihood to reach through those levels to get to liquidity up here. Now if you look at the fair value gap I've outlined here from |
| 37 | 00:07:34,230 --> 00:07:42,090 | this candles high in this candles low, extending it out time, you can see we dropped down into that last week, had a nice energetic run away from that on |
| 38 | 00:07:42,090 --> 00:07:54,960 | Friday, leaving a fair pay gap here, trading up into that ramming through and then reaching for myself. So with this logic in mind, I want to take a look at |
| 39 | 00:07:54,960 --> 00:08:10,830 | the intraday charts. Because that's smash above that 4035 level, was this brilliant today. That concept is my power three, I internalize the daily range |
| 40 | 00:08:10,860 --> 00:08:21,870 | like this. So I'm looking for an expansion to liquidity or an imbalance above the marketplace if I'm bullish, or an expansion to the downside to a old low or |
| 41 | 00:08:21,870 --> 00:08:32,460 | an imbalance. So those are the two main decision points that you have to make. Are you bullish? Okay, if you're bullish, what's it reaching for an imbalance or |
| 42 | 00:08:32,700 --> 00:08:40,950 | an old high or relative equal highs? That's very simple, folks. Very, very simple logic. If you're bearish, you're looking for the opposite, you're looking |
| 43 | 00:08:40,950 --> 00:08:47,130 | for the market to trade down to an old low or relative equal lows for sell side liquidity for attention down to an inefficiency in the career vague gap |
| 44 | 00:08:47,130 --> 00:08:57,990 | something to that effect. Very, very simple. So right away, you decide and want to likely go higher. If it's going to go higher, you're looking for it to go to |
| 45 | 00:08:58,170 --> 00:09:08,610 | one of two things, inefficiency, or liquidity above all high. If it's likely to go lower, you're looking for one of two things. It's going down into a fair pay |
| 46 | 00:09:08,610 --> 00:09:20,760 | gap for inefficiency to reprice to that, or it's going to run up a low and a low or relatively close for Southside liquidity. That's it. Those two major |
| 47 | 00:09:20,760 --> 00:09:32,430 | questions bullish or bearish, either or then it's inefficiency or liquidity. That's that's the algorithm that's what it's doing. So once you determine what |
| 48 | 00:09:32,430 --> 00:09:42,690 | it's likely reaching for, it helps you formulate the narrative which is using this mindset here. What I was expecting to see over the course of the daily |
| 49 | 00:09:42,690 --> 00:09:57,930 | range, you formulate your engagement based on price action in the PDA rays form in the lower timeframes. So the chart here, we have the rejection block here at |
| 50 | 00:09:58,380 --> 00:09:59,700 | 4055 and a quarter |
| 51 | 00:10:01,079 --> 00:10:12,599 | The old low, this is what we just refer to at 40 35.25. And then here's the consequent current of that wick, as I mentioned last week, opens, trades down to |
| 52 | 00:10:12,599 --> 00:10:20,819 | it here and rallies expands up through the high, they are in even reaches all the way to the rejection block. Okay, so I'm adding this in here. Immediately, I |
| 53 | 00:10:20,819 --> 00:10:29,819 | didn't expect to see this today, I was just thinking this would be the daily objective. And if we were going to stop short of that 4055, I would have |
| 54 | 00:10:29,909 --> 00:10:41,099 | expected that tomorrow or overnight. And I would have mentioned it today in this commentary, but it decided to do it all in one day. All right, the hourly chart, |
| 55 | 00:10:42,329 --> 00:10:51,449 | you can see the buyside liquidity, relative equalize here. We have consolidation, market, Lee's consolidation trades down to Smart Money reversal, |
| 56 | 00:10:51,479 --> 00:11:03,179 | low risk by accumulation re accumulation. Now this right here, this area here is a little tricky. And I mentioned this morning that we hadn't really done much |
| 57 | 00:11:03,239 --> 00:11:13,799 | overnight. And we wanted to see it trade to the 930 opening. Admittedly, I was looking for it to drop down into this area here, and then do everything you're |
| 58 | 00:11:13,799 --> 00:11:29,969 | seeing here. But not to the 50 level but to 4035. Right here, I wanted that liquidity taken out in the pm session. Because we consolidated overnight. And we |
| 59 | 00:11:29,969 --> 00:11:40,109 | already ran above the short term high here of relative equal highs, see that His Highness here, it runs above it, and then drops just a little bit below that |
| 60 | 00:11:40,109 --> 00:11:48,989 | low. In my opinion, what I was looking for is a little bit deeper run below that after 930. And we'll look at that in a moment. We can lower timeframes. But for |
| 61 | 00:11:48,989 --> 00:12:00,059 | now, I want you to consider how this was just really narrow, and not much of a deep retracement below that low. So it was too much of a consolidation for my |
| 62 | 00:12:00,059 --> 00:12:12,389 | liking. And it was problematic for me to just go in and go long now had it done a deeper drop below here. Before 930, I would have went in a little bit more |
| 63 | 00:12:12,389 --> 00:12:24,959 | aggressive and went long. On es want to help show you again lower timeframes. But because of the fact that we had consolidated almost sideways perfectly in |
| 64 | 00:12:24,959 --> 00:12:36,029 | such a small little shallow drop below that low. I was unwilling to take any position. So I took no trades today absolutely nothing. And that's fine. But the |
| 65 | 00:12:36,029 --> 00:12:46,679 | point is, is what I was looking for hinges on the fact that we were not willing to go down a little bit more than we did. So when I get students asked me all |
| 66 | 00:12:46,679 --> 00:12:56,669 | the time, when it comes to missing trades, do I miss trades? Yes. Yes, I have in fact, I missed a lot of trades, because there's a lot of trades that I may see |
| 67 | 00:12:56,669 --> 00:13:04,889 | forming, that I'm not interested in pursuing or participating in. For various reasons, I may not be able to manage the position, once I get it, the |
| 68 | 00:13:04,889 --> 00:13:15,209 | preoccupied with something. My wife or my children draw my attention away from the marketplace, or I don't feel well or I'm tired. Or I'm just simply not |
| 69 | 00:13:15,209 --> 00:13:23,249 | interested in and I'm just going to watch and see what it does. So it's a wide array of things like you're going to encounter as a trader that keeps you from |
| 70 | 00:13:23,249 --> 00:13:33,659 | taking a position. But I was watching it live today. And I was mapping out the five and one minute chart and annotated them and sharing them on my Twitter |
| 71 | 00:13:33,659 --> 00:13:40,859 | feed. Now I'll let you go look at those charts that we can drop the charts, or the links from those tweets right on your trading view chart on a one or five |
| 72 | 00:13:40,859 --> 00:13:47,759 | minute chart. And you'll see exactly when I'm making the comments and what that chart looks like from my end. So you can kind of like match it up. That's the |
| 73 | 00:13:47,759 --> 00:13:55,199 | work, a lot of you aren't going to want to do that. And that's unfortunate, because you're going to miss the opportunity to learn a lot. I'm doing it this |
| 74 | 00:13:55,199 --> 00:14:02,369 | way until we start our live sessions because obviously a little bit a lot better when you can see me talking about very specific things in the chart. And when |
| 75 | 00:14:02,369 --> 00:14:13,019 | I'm looking for real time more dynamically in I'll be able to say it easier and faster than anything a chart, cut and pasting it into Twitter. And in waiting |
| 76 | 00:14:13,019 --> 00:14:23,849 | for that delivery get to your phone or device. So what I'm doing to keep you engaged, do your own studies, go into your charts and mine, these things that |
| 77 | 00:14:23,849 --> 00:14:32,309 | I'm showing you. So anyway, we're gonna look at this consolidation here on lower timeframe. Here is the 15 minute time frame stretched out a little bit more, you |
| 78 | 00:14:32,309 --> 00:14:43,709 | can see that low. And this low right here. There's a fair pay gap right there. This is what I shared on Twitter, this one and this one here. Okay. And I |
| 79 | 00:14:43,709 --> 00:14:57,779 | mentioned that I favor this one. Now. I don't believe what I'm about to say it's going to be hard to understand because if you're a student of mine, you already |
| 80 | 00:14:57,779 --> 00:15:07,649 | recognize what this is. Original can validation, distribution, redistribution, smart man reversal, low risk by accumulation, somewhere in here is going to be |
| 81 | 00:15:07,649 --> 00:15:18,779 | re accumulation for market maker by model that clears out the original consolidation. So I'm looking for this to drop down for a second stage three |
| 82 | 00:15:18,779 --> 00:15:30,629 | accumulation. So some kind of important low will form. And I was willing to wait for it to drop down into this, I was preferring it to do that. The times that I |
| 83 | 00:15:30,629 --> 00:15:41,279 | do those types of forcing the market to come to me type event, I've run the risk of missing the trade. And that's okay. Because I'm going to show you how, |
| 84 | 00:15:41,759 --> 00:15:52,859 | eventually, you see in my tweets that I flipped right into what I'm looking for still, but anchoring it to a breaker with a fair value gap inside of it. So |
| 85 | 00:15:53,249 --> 00:16:05,069 | we'll get to that in a moment. But I was wanting this first i favorite this trading too first, then using that as a springboard running up into this area |
| 86 | 00:16:05,069 --> 00:16:16,889 | here. And then I would have been hopefully seeing it consolidate or retrace away from that, going into lunch, noon hour to one o'clock New York local time, and |
| 87 | 00:16:16,889 --> 00:16:32,249 | then resumed going up for another leg higher. The fact that it delivered all in one complete swing like that it was it was fun to watch. But it wasn't enough |
| 88 | 00:16:32,249 --> 00:16:44,699 | for me to participate in because it already delivered the lion's portion of the move. If you look at the 15 minute timeframe here, I'm really zoomed in so you |
| 89 | 00:16:44,699 --> 00:16:54,359 | can really see the fair value gap. And at 930, I wanted to see it spiked down into that clear out the sell side here, which would have been great, because we |
| 90 | 00:16:54,359 --> 00:17:04,319 | had this low this low in the fair value gaps, if it would have punched down into that I would have went long right in that stab of this where I get on its own by |
| 91 | 00:17:04,319 --> 00:17:14,909 | itself, I would have done that. I would have no fear in doing that. Because I felt strongly that that 4035 and a quarter level was going to be targeted today. |
| 92 | 00:17:16,109 --> 00:17:30,839 | And I wanted to see the initial objective, this very vague out here, which was 4012, I think it was in a quarter. So 401 2.25. But we'll just say 4012 For the |
| 93 | 00:17:30,839 --> 00:17:43,199 | sake of argument. And the market rally just kept pressing up into that, after having a little bit of a sloppy open at 930. Ultimately different delivering up |
| 94 | 00:17:43,199 --> 00:17:56,279 | to the 4055 and a quarter level which is the rejection block on daily chart. Alright, on a five minute chart, you can see we had by side here. So there's buy |
| 95 | 00:17:56,279 --> 00:18:03,059 | stops above these relatively equal highs, retail traders are gonna see that as resistance. So they'll think that it's safe to go short. And their stop loss |
| 96 | 00:18:03,059 --> 00:18:12,329 | they'll use to protect your position while they're short will be placed right above here. Sell side liquidity relatively equal to one another here. So sell |
| 97 | 00:18:12,329 --> 00:18:22,859 | sides below there. So the market runs up takes by side one more time punches it in drops, oh, you back down in this tiny little shallow run right below there, |
| 98 | 00:18:22,859 --> 00:18:30,749 | that was enough to send that going the other direction. Now immediately I was watching. And we had our first no didn't accumulate anything. But it was |
| 99 | 00:18:30,749 --> 00:18:39,299 | beautiful seeing these big golf ball size snowflakes falling down in Maryland out back in my house. And I was watching this by setting down sell side |
| 100 | 00:18:39,299 --> 00:18:50,969 | inefficiency, which is a fair value gap. But it's lacking what sell side delivery. So we see this market drop down. See this candle here. It's low is |
| 101 | 00:18:51,059 --> 00:19:01,079 | lower than this candle before it in hot. The next thing I'm after is has a higher low. So we have a low with a higher low on either side of it a swing low |
| 102 | 00:19:01,409 --> 00:19:12,539 | inside of a boss out of balance that's on an efficiency after a shift in market structure after a hunt of sell side liquidity. That's institutional refinance |
| 103 | 00:19:12,539 --> 00:19:23,639 | you do it rallies again creates another imbalance drops back down into here rallies after creating this fair value gap there. It's stalled there. I want to |
| 104 | 00:19:23,639 --> 00:19:28,859 | see it go above that and accumulate and build more of a |
| 105 | 00:19:30,600 --> 00:19:40,560 | support area in the market rallies up to 4000. We got 4000 I mentioned that on Twitter and then broke down and I had this volume imbalance in this volume of |
| 106 | 00:19:40,560 --> 00:19:47,580 | the ounce annotated. And I was wanting to see it support that in the last line of defense was the order block. We just kept eroding down into it. And then |
| 107 | 00:19:47,580 --> 00:19:59,010 | finally, post 930 We had one more drop down into this fair value gap. And I wanted to see it go through here and then spike down to that that's what I was |
| 108 | 00:19:59,040 --> 00:20:07,530 | looking for. I would have been I'm preferring that based on the hourly chart, and the 15 minute time frame, because that would have wiped out all the sell |
| 109 | 00:20:07,530 --> 00:20:18,120 | side, because this is too shallow for my personal tastes. And it just never gave me an opportunity. So we can be upset, I could sit here and give you all kinds |
| 110 | 00:20:18,120 --> 00:20:27,000 | of complaints and such, but, you know, I can find the trade every day. It's not a big deal. But the one I was really wanting was for it to trade down to there. |
| 111 | 00:20:27,090 --> 00:20:35,160 | And that's what you're going to see sometimes when we're doing the live sessions, I will have a more preferred setup that I'm would rather get involved |
| 112 | 00:20:35,160 --> 00:20:42,270 | in the market with, it may or may not give it to him. If it doesn't, I'll show you ways to still participate in the marketplace, what, which is what I showed |
| 113 | 00:20:42,270 --> 00:20:54,780 | today. And let's go into that now. This gap, and here. Be mindful that because I mentioned it on Twitter, this is going to be referred to as the read February |
| 114 | 00:20:54,780 --> 00:21:12,630 | gap. Okay. So I was saying watching this fair Vega. And if I'm bullish, what I'd like to see is a PV array that fails, and it becomes an inversion level. And |
| 115 | 00:21:12,630 --> 00:21:24,780 | what I mean by that, I'll explain in a moment, we have this up close candle, the last closed candle in this swing high, before taking up this low here. So that |
| 116 | 00:21:24,780 --> 00:21:35,070 | green candle, that's what I'm highlighting that yellow rectangle, and that's a bullish breaker. It trades above it takes out liquidity, and then trades down |
| 117 | 00:21:35,070 --> 00:21:45,810 | below that low takes out liquidity. That is a highly manipulated market environment. This is what I meant by saying it's sloppy. This could have very |
| 118 | 00:21:45,810 --> 00:21:57,540 | easily went into seek and destroy for the rest of the afternoon, and never have gone above this high or below this low. It just could have went back and forth |
| 119 | 00:21:57,540 --> 00:22:07,170 | chopping and taking out every little short term high and low. The fact that we dropped down into this fair value gap again took out sellside rallied up at this |
| 120 | 00:22:07,170 --> 00:22:18,690 | moment here I said it has the framework for the shift in market structure here. With the fair value gap, if it's going to hold, it could have wilted and took |
| 121 | 00:22:18,690 --> 00:22:34,560 | out the 3984 and 3982 sellside. So I was commenting on that because that was what I was having, in my mind as a potential scenario that I would prefer to |
| 122 | 00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:45,030 | see. I wanted to see that and it was not willing to go lower. And then finally went right back up into the breaker. Now you're probably thinking Why isn't this |
| 123 | 00:22:45,090 --> 00:22:57,960 | breaker this low to this high in that low? It is. But I cut through candles. So I'm going back to the original breaker here. This was a sock one on top of the |
| 124 | 00:22:57,960 --> 00:23:06,030 | breaker that originally was formed here. I'm going to go back to the original breaker when it happens. There's logic right here. I'm sorry, but you folks that |
| 125 | 00:23:06,030 --> 00:23:14,400 | are trying to teach my concepts. You don't know what you're doing. So please stop. You don't know what you're doing. And you're spreading misinformation. And |
| 126 | 00:23:14,400 --> 00:23:28,590 | it's unfortunate because it isn't going to work the way you're doing it. Okay, so it is what it is. Breaker. So we're back inside that range. I don't need it |
| 127 | 00:23:28,590 --> 00:23:40,890 | to go above and come back down. I can accumulate inside that breaker. Especially if you look real close. There's a small little fairway yet right in here. So we |
| 128 | 00:23:40,890 --> 00:23:56,100 | went down. And I mentioned this looks like it's a radon stops. And the only thing I see now is a bullish breaker any run to 4012 when it was forming right |
| 129 | 00:23:56,100 --> 00:24:08,790 | in here, right there as it was dropping down into that I was telling you in Twitter, that 4012 is the only thing I can see now. And that was a stoplight on |
| 130 | 00:24:08,790 --> 00:24:20,070 | cell side there. So back and forth. And here. We were collectively watching together and looking for a scenario. And I was leading your attention to if we |
| 131 | 00:24:20,070 --> 00:24:30,270 | could run out there to 94 or 92 Because that would do what take us back down into 3982 and a half which is the consequent encroachment midpoint of that gap |
| 132 | 00:24:30,300 --> 00:24:38,490 | on a daily chart. Remember how I first started this presentation, I took your attention to the daily chart in a big long wick below the daily candle and I |
| 133 | 00:24:38,490 --> 00:24:47,130 | split it in half and projected it forward was watching that level well had already went down to 3982 and a half. You had done that. But I want to see it do |
| 134 | 00:24:47,130 --> 00:24:59,250 | it one more time and take out liquidity a little bit more pronounced after the opening at 930. But the market is simply was not willing to present that and it |
| 135 | 00:24:59,250 --> 00:25:09,090 | was on willing to go lower completely reprice all you up to the top of the breaker, perfect delivery, perfect delivery, then we went down into what? Boom, |
| 136 | 00:25:09,600 --> 00:25:18,300 | there's that gap, that red fair value gap. If you look at my Twitter, I'm cutting through candles, folks, okay, I'm not supply and demand. Okay? There's |
| 137 | 00:25:18,300 --> 00:25:32,610 | nothing like what I'm teaching you. I do not ignore or forget about an imbalance once it's traded to and rebalance. That's logic, that's narrative. Okay, this |
| 138 | 00:25:32,610 --> 00:25:44,550 | point, right here was before the 930 opening, it was part of the narrative I was looking for. I wanted to see this be reused in the future. Because the |
| 139 | 00:25:44,550 --> 00:25:53,310 | algorithms gonna remember this imbalance. It's not going to look at this high and this low and say, Oh, this no longer matters. Like anybody else that would |
| 140 | 00:25:53,610 --> 00:26:07,380 | be familiar with inefficiencies. So the algorithms going right back into this, the market drops down into that fear a gap. That candles Hi, that right there is |
| 141 | 00:26:07,380 --> 00:26:16,650 | what I was referring to watch and see if it offers what support. Go back and look at the tweets, folks. That was not a miscue, it was straight up right out |
| 142 | 00:26:16,650 --> 00:26:27,990 | of the logic, I teach my students, I'm taking your attention to this fair value gap. And if it goes above it, it comes back down and access support, then we |
| 143 | 00:26:27,990 --> 00:26:39,330 | have a narrative that we can trust going forward. So now we are now bullish looking for what the 4012 level, then we have an entry pattern, right? Well, |
| 144 | 00:26:39,330 --> 00:26:49,950 | we're inside of the breaker. And then we have a fair Baga break down here, look at the bottom of that candle right there. Closing Price nails that type that's |
| 145 | 00:26:49,950 --> 00:26:57,900 | perfect. it overshoots it a little bit, that's fine, because it's an order block, down close candle, perfect delivery. But that body stopping dead in its |
| 146 | 00:26:57,900 --> 00:27:10,020 | tracks inside that fairway get right there. And then off to the races, we go to 4012. Here's that fear of a gap again, market rallies up into 4000 expands |
| 147 | 00:27:10,020 --> 00:27:21,030 | through it, consolidation creates another fair value gap. And here between 950 and 1010. There's a macro, there's gonna be another little short order of |
| 148 | 00:27:22,350 --> 00:27:32,100 | instructions for the algorithm to seek another setup either to reverse or continue, you see the fair value gap here, trades down into here, accumulate, re |
| 149 | 00:27:32,100 --> 00:27:43,590 | accumulate, sends it to the top of the fair pay gap on the 15 minute timeframe to afford 1750. And then back down to consequent encroachment, which is the |
| 150 | 00:27:43,590 --> 00:27:56,100 | midpoint of that shaded red area. It may not be read for you. Um, I don't think it's paint maybe salmon colored I don't know. But half of that consolidated, |
| 151 | 00:27:56,250 --> 00:28:09,030 | accumulated more right out side of it. Here's the area here. Rallies again consolidates that I mentioned as long as we remained above 4012 that we would |
| 152 | 00:28:09,030 --> 00:28:20,790 | see 4035 and a quarter, the market rallied right up into that. And then I sent a tweet saying to screenshot your one minute chart. As we delivered what we were |
| 153 | 00:28:20,790 --> 00:28:36,000 | looking for. The market pressed on into 4051. retraced, consolidated, dropped back down into that old 40 35.25 level. It's an old daily high, consolidated. |
| 154 | 00:28:39,150 --> 00:28:49,050 | And here we have the lunch hour between noon and one o'clock in the afternoon. Now I'm seeing some folks. They're warming up to the idea that the markets are |
| 155 | 00:28:49,050 --> 00:29:00,570 | algorithmic, that's wonderful. But they are sometimes saying that algorithms don't go out for lunch. They don't take lunch. The algorithm doesn't take a |
| 156 | 00:29:00,570 --> 00:29:11,940 | lunch, but the algorithm reflects on price action inside the lunch hour. And there is a consolidation most times in the hour between noon and one o'clock. |
| 157 | 00:29:12,990 --> 00:29:24,330 | That's what we're seeing here. Okay, so we've been bullish, and I've taught this in the 2022 model last year on my YouTube channel. If we get a retracement or |
| 158 | 00:29:24,330 --> 00:29:32,040 | reversal in the afternoon session, it's going to aim for the lows formed during the lunch hour. |
| 159 | 00:29:34,620 --> 00:29:46,590 | If you're trying to continue going long, and we haven't reached an objective, which unfortunately do here at 4055 and a quarter that level was there a |
| 160 | 00:29:46,590 --> 00:29:57,120 | rejection block from daily chart again when I mentioned the beginning of the video. We'll cover this in a moment here all that business but the cell stops |
| 161 | 00:29:57,120 --> 00:30:06,540 | below this relative equal low once we went For that objective on the daily chart, in the retracement lower, it's going to attack Yes, the ones time lows. |
| 162 | 00:30:07,710 --> 00:30:17,490 | And the algorithm reprice is down to at the year. And all we back down into a fairway gap there and back into our 15 minute period a gap that was given as the |
| 163 | 00:30:17,490 --> 00:30:29,700 | initial upside objective range high of 4017 and a half to 4012 and a quarter. That's that area here. And it does it perfectly stops dead in its tracks, right |
| 164 | 00:30:29,700 --> 00:30:42,600 | to the tick closing in that fairway get the ball shorter, blah, nice little reaction here. It's five handles are dear offered beautifully. A little bit more |
| 165 | 00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:57,210 | than that. but who's counting. So that lunch, our sell side liquidity pool was the draw after hitting the rejection blocked. And I took your attention into if |
| 166 | 00:30:57,210 --> 00:31:06,540 | you're on Twitter. That's your intention to rate in this area here. So the old daily rejection block is that 4055 and a quarter level. And we have an old high. |
| 167 | 00:31:07,320 --> 00:31:19,260 | And I told you I will teach you a model tonight. If I'm bullish. And I see an objective I'm looking for, in the case 4055 and a quarter, which was the old |
| 168 | 00:31:19,320 --> 00:31:26,610 | closing price on the daily chart. When we showed the daily chart in the beginning in this recording again, go back, this is why you want to take notes. |
| 169 | 00:31:27,360 --> 00:31:32,760 | Because you're probably frustrated right now you're thinking What are you talking about I've talked about, but if you just casually watch the videos like |
| 170 | 00:31:32,760 --> 00:31:42,840 | it's Netflix, you're missing the opportunity to get key levels that are going to be pertinent the next potential week or so or maybe even longer. Remember, I'm |
| 171 | 00:31:42,840 --> 00:31:58,260 | looking back 20 days. So these key levels, much like the 39 at two and a half level was a key level. Last week, it was key level today. So if I'm bullish, and |
| 172 | 00:31:58,260 --> 00:32:08,490 | I'm expecting price to reach to a specific level, higher up on higher timeframe, and we've taken out a high like we do here, and we have yet to trade to the |
| 173 | 00:32:08,490 --> 00:32:26,220 | higher timeframe objective. And we're past lunch hour, I will look for a fair value got like this rate at the old high. And we have it there. This rally up |
| 174 | 00:32:26,250 --> 00:32:34,170 | fall short of the rejection block. And it drops back down into consequent correction which is the midpoint of this candles high to that candles low that |
| 175 | 00:32:34,170 --> 00:32:44,010 | range right here. This Faraday gap is categorized as a busy, buy some imbalance sell some inefficiency. What's it missing? It's inefficient in what sellside. So |
| 176 | 00:32:44,010 --> 00:32:55,560 | we're expecting it at a later time, which does hear the market being offered in a down candle and stops, then the Treasury in the midpoint. That's a long, five |
| 177 | 00:32:55,560 --> 00:33:08,850 | handles from here to here beautifully. Once it does that, and it hits the rejection block or it could have been an old high at that moment, then I'm going |
| 178 | 00:33:08,850 --> 00:33:22,050 | to be watching for a potential reversal. This swing low gets broken there, that's an a potential reversal. expect this to sell off aggressively, and then |
| 179 | 00:33:22,050 --> 00:33:33,780 | go back through the get that forms that the old high. If you get this break through here, the very next selling opportunity, you want to use that because |
| 180 | 00:33:33,780 --> 00:33:43,080 | this is going to be a very sudden breakdown of a market maker Selma. And it's going to aggressively reach for in this case, the lunch hour lows here for sell |
| 181 | 00:33:43,080 --> 00:33:55,440 | stops. So we have the meltdown through that fear of a gap. It does it here and watch what happens it goes right back up to it there. That's your sore. That |
| 182 | 00:33:55,440 --> 00:34:05,940 | short right there. You put your stop loss right above the high of the fairway get this form here. This one extended in time. That right there is what the |
| 183 | 00:34:05,940 --> 00:34:14,370 | algorithm is gonna refer to that one. This way, get right there. And you want to see at least some of that open like it does in the next game. Look what it does. |
| 184 | 00:34:14,610 --> 00:34:26,550 | Boom, undeniable. Now some of you are gonna think there's no way it's all hindsight. Go on my Twitter. Go on my Twitter, and I had it mapped out right |
| 185 | 00:34:26,550 --> 00:34:34,230 | before it reverses. And then I took it down into a 15 second chart |
| 186 | 00:34:39,600 --> 00:34:56,310 | looking for 4030 EEG liquidity in here. Boom hits it. And everybody else knew exactly what to expect next, which was the 4035 quarter level to be traded back |
| 187 | 00:34:56,310 --> 00:35:04,410 | to and then because you're used to being with me, well what's over here We're relatively close, but some of you forgot that that's the lunch hour sells on |
| 188 | 00:35:04,410 --> 00:35:13,800 | liquidity, which is exactly what I taught how to trade the pm session in the 2022 model on this YouTube channel, targeting those lunch hour lows when you're |
| 189 | 00:35:13,800 --> 00:35:30,690 | bearish so here is that one minute chart. If you have a gap at the old high breaks above, drops down you long right there, you can put a limit on the rate |
| 190 | 00:35:30,690 --> 00:35:41,670 | this candles low, one tick below it will fill you rallies down close candle touches a here you expect as you're watching price, real time it opens here |
| 191 | 00:35:41,760 --> 00:35:51,150 | drops down to a hits it perfectly the opening price, that's my order block. And then you watch to see the Reach for the rejection block it does. And through it. |
| 192 | 00:35:52,140 --> 00:36:05,850 | Five handles look for a shift in market structure there. If it gives you a selling opportunity, and then takes out that fair value gap at the old high. |
| 193 | 00:36:06,660 --> 00:36:21,330 | Once it does it here, as soon as it returns back to that fair value gap. That's the next sell. Elevators going down and it will dip from there. There are lots |
| 194 | 00:36:21,510 --> 00:36:34,050 | of these types of macros in my algorithm. They haven't specific times, certain times of the day. And this one here is the two o'clock macro. If you have a high |
| 195 | 00:36:34,320 --> 00:36:45,120 | that runs to a higher timeframe. And you have an imbalance inherent imbalance once it's traded through, it becomes an inversion level. Just like the red fair |
| 196 | 00:36:45,120 --> 00:36:56,580 | value gap I gave you this morning on Twitter, it became an inversion level. This should have been what support it does. Once it trades through it. It now becomes |
| 197 | 00:36:56,580 --> 00:36:58,590 | what? Resistance |
| 198 | 00:37:04,620 --> 00:37:14,550 | it's not supply and demand. It's not classic Support Resistance. Okay. It's completely algorithmic. And you cannot arm wrestle it. It is what it is. It's |
| 199 | 00:37:14,550 --> 00:37:23,640 | not another books and if you can find it in other books, find it. Tell me what book it is and tweet it to me and I'll retweet it if it's in there. But it ain't |
| 200 | 00:37:23,640 --> 00:37:28,110 | gonna be retweeted because it's not in there. Until next time. Be safe |