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ICT YT - 2023-01-18 - ICT 2023 Mentorship - ES Live Execution and Mean Threshold Risk Management

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-01-18 11:37

Outline

00:03 - Introduction of the video.

01:28 - Open high low low and close.

02:59 - Sell-side stops below the 920 low.

05:08 - Risk and stop-loss.

06:45 - Understanding volume imbalance and taking profits.

08:40 - The high around the 930 level.

11:06 - Bullish order block on down close.

12:56 - Down close candle and stop loss.

15:02 - Bullish order block.

17:09 - Accelerate like gas on a fire.

Transcription

1 00:00:03,300 --> 00:00:15,570 ICT: Alright folks, going along here, this is a review, this is actual time, I usually take these executions and speed them up and put them around two minutes
2 00:00:15,570 --> 00:00:23,340 long for Twitter, usually through some kind of music over top of it just for entertainment value. You may or may not like my choice of music, but it's not
3 00:00:23,340 --> 00:00:33,000 for you, it's for me. So I'm gonna kind of like walk you through this. Before I get into it. I outlined 4030 years mind level in the weekend commentary before
4 00:00:33,000 --> 00:00:41,880 we even started trading this week. And also, I mentioned it as my focus point for this morning on Twitter. If you're not following me on Twitter, you can find
5 00:00:41,880 --> 00:00:49,920 the actual account on my YouTube channel. Here the domain page, far right corner, you'll see the official ICT Twitter account. That's how you get things
6 00:00:49,950 --> 00:00:58,620 alerted to you real time, any level I'm watching it's pertinent. Any drawing liquidity, something like that change of schedule for live sessions and such.
7 00:01:00,960 --> 00:01:09,600 And I went long inside the fair value gap as it was approaching the middle part of that shaded area. And I'm placing my limit order up here is a best case
8 00:01:09,600 --> 00:01:22,980 scenario in case it was the wildly snap up there. I always like to use a best case scenario exit. And the 4030 level. The reason why I like that, if you go to
9 00:01:22,980 --> 00:01:39,420 your daily chart for ES H 2023. That is the closing price on December 14 2022. Okay, so open high, low and close is all you need. Add Time elements and
10 00:01:39,420 --> 00:01:51,420 understanding about that, and specific macros that the algorithm does that delivers price. And yes, it does. And you'll see proof of that again here. And I
11 00:01:51,420 --> 00:02:06,300 sent three tweets out stating that the 943 candle, which is the shaded candle, big bullish green candle, that's the one I'm drawing everyone's attention to on
12 00:02:06,480 --> 00:02:19,350 Twitter. And then the down clothes that I entered on, that's an order block. So you can see already we have a potential volume imbalance forming where there's
13 00:02:19,350 --> 00:02:31,620 an absence of any bodies overlapping one another between two candles. So in my mind, I'm watching that form and I want to see it stay open that gap between the
14 00:02:31,620 --> 00:02:34,110 present candles open and the previous candles close.
15 00:02:39,509 --> 00:02:54,809 Because if I can get a return back down into that I'll go long additional contracts and pyramid my position when we aiming for about $10,000. All in one
16 00:02:54,809 --> 00:03:07,709 trade, build it up from one entry using the logic. Now if you look at the 920 low, there sell side stops. Below that sell side liquidity was purged with a
17 00:03:07,709 --> 00:03:20,279 drop down at essentially 940. And the 4030 level was the objective I gave you over the weekend before the market started trading in prompted everyone live. On
18 00:03:20,279 --> 00:03:31,559 Twitter. I stated that my next level of interest sidelined early on, I said no, there's nothing really exciting to do. He's at the wait. So we waited for the
19 00:03:31,559 --> 00:03:40,859 930 opening, which is exactly what I prompted everyone to do on Twitter. And we seem sellside taken out and then the market rallied up. Now you're probably
20 00:03:40,859 --> 00:03:56,819 questioning why am I using Fe raiga? Well, I'm using an advanced model. And because I'm expecting expansion. I'm not looking for a trending day, I'm just
21 00:03:56,819 --> 00:04:07,829 looking for an expansion up into the 4030 level which would close in the range from December 14 closing price on the daily chart for ES h to zero to three on
22 00:04:07,829 --> 00:04:22,409 TradingView. Drawing that level out on your chart, you'll get essentially 4030 So I'm outlining the reason why my stop loss is below the mean threshold mean
23 00:04:22,409 --> 00:04:39,299 threshold of the down close candle the most. closest to the 940 below okay, so the middle of that candle. That's where I have my stock below that it should not
24 00:04:39,299 --> 00:04:50,219 go back down there. Why shouldn't be going in here because we've taken stops at the 920 low in your time should always be set to New York local time. Otherwise,
25 00:04:50,219 --> 00:05:02,939 you're not going to track me on the recordings. So you can definitely see the volume and bounce and I'm just getting some some measurements here, nothing's
26 00:05:02,939 --> 00:05:14,999 really lining up with specific levels I like. So my attention primarily is focused on the 4030. So I'll be taking the bulk of whatever I accumulate in
27 00:05:14,999 --> 00:05:30,899 lungs off at 4030 or higher, right now have a contracts wall. And the stop loss is based on 100,000 on our account. So if you were funded with 100,000, our
28 00:05:30,899 --> 00:05:52,739 trading account, the risk on this trade is 1.2%. I'll be aiming for about eight and a half to 10% 10%. That's the goal I'm reaching for percentage wise. So now
29 00:05:52,739 --> 00:06:02,579 I'm giving you a reminder that while you're watching price you want to be looking at through the lens of five handles each, every increment move in five
30 00:06:02,579 --> 00:06:10,529 handles because you want to train your eye is returning back to that volume and balance. Now, I'll come back to that in a second season, then figuring out how I
31 00:06:10,529 --> 00:06:15,359 want to put the text inside this rectangle, obsessively compulsive.
32 00:06:23,279 --> 00:06:39,149 Five handles is the equivalent of a move from 4025 to 4020. That's 20 ticks, okay, in terms of money, if you were trading one mini contract of EAs, that
33 00:06:39,149 --> 00:06:53,429 would be equivalent to 250 yards or one handle being $50 profit or loss. So you can see we returned back down into that volume amounts. There, don't worry, I'll
34 00:06:53,429 --> 00:06:54,719 get the next pass down.
35 00:07:00,120 --> 00:07:09,690 No, I don't think and I want to see it have speed and distance through the high that's already formed. It's already banging around in here. And I'm gonna look
36 00:07:09,690 --> 00:07:20,160 to bring that stuff up a little bit, but it has to show me reaction at the volume imbalance, which I'm annotating right now. Thinking volume imbalance is
37 00:07:20,160 --> 00:07:31,560 my concept of identifying an area where there may or may not be an overlap between two candles with their wicks or a wick like we see here. Like the candle
38 00:07:31,710 --> 00:07:42,870 right to the right of my entry, that AppCode candle. That's the candle I'm looking at that turns that wick and the very next candle that opens higher than
39 00:07:42,870 --> 00:07:50,640 the previous Kindles close. So don't let those trend lines a little segment right there. I'm focusing on that and if we drag down the midpoint, there you
40 00:07:50,640 --> 00:08:01,890 go, I'm looking for that as an entry. I'm trying to time the move of the wick prior to Kindle, it's trading right now I want to buy as it's heading towards
41 00:08:01,890 --> 00:08:13,200 the volume and bounce it may or may not touch the volume imbalance again, but I'm trying to trade as the candles going down. Notice that I'm entering long on
42 00:08:13,200 --> 00:08:23,820 down close candles or down candles. And I'm taking profits on Long's in up candles. That is the market efficiency paradigm that I teach. Alright, so now
43 00:08:23,910 --> 00:08:39,450 the risk has been elevated to 1.3% which is minuscule. And I'm going to be looking to raise the stop up but if it gives me another opportunity to go long.
44 00:08:40,710 --> 00:08:53,430 One more pyramiding entry I'll take that but are focusing on the high font around the 930 right there. I want to see speed and distance how fast it can get
45 00:08:53,430 --> 00:09:05,850 through the high because I'll be judging that based on its willingness to get through that 4023 and a half level which is the morning session Hi
46 00:09:18,480 --> 00:09:30,930 now the candle I entered initially open inside the fair value gap that shaded blue that fair value gaps high I have that level in my mind as a potential area
47 00:09:30,930 --> 00:09:40,710 where you can revisit that I don't believe it's likely to do that now because we've traded through the bodies of the swing high that's in price right now. So
48 00:09:40,740 --> 00:09:55,560 1234 Candles back from where it is right now. Because it's done that I feel confident that I can have my stop loss below the low of that retracement the the
49 00:09:55,560 --> 00:10:06,840 big down close candle. I don't have the time in there. A table where I did my second partial entry to the left of that that damn close candle. I want to have
50 00:10:06,840 --> 00:10:17,100 my stop loss below that well, because it will not return back into the fair value gap now. So the volume of bounce should keep price at bay because there's
51 00:10:17,100 --> 00:10:30,750 an order block when I entered in on initially during the fear of a gap. So now I've removed the risk, and has spent too much time below that low at 930. So we
52 00:10:30,750 --> 00:10:45,810 have a dealing range that it's operating in between the 943 candle and present in line 30, high, so it can bang around in here and I want to see it move
53 00:10:45,810 --> 00:10:53,580 aggressively through this high, I want to see speed, not just poke its head above it, otherwise it can potentially come back down in and retest that volume
54 00:10:53,580 --> 00:11:02,010 imbalance, which is essentially fine, it just runs the risk of if there's some kind of static price action, it could stop me out. But right now I feel
55 00:11:02,010 --> 00:11:17,760 confident where my stop is. That down close candle is a bullish order block, just to the left of my second partial entry. That entire range, we can use that
56 00:11:17,760 --> 00:11:30,720 to go long another partial to build a position or it could be a independent entry all together by itself. In my mind is we've pierced that 930 Hi, we
57 00:11:30,720 --> 00:11:44,070 haven't done it with a great deal of energy. So I'm thinking right now, it could potentially trade back down into the order block. So I'm looking at taking off
58 00:11:44,070 --> 00:11:48,510 six or half of the position I have one if it can run to 4030.
59 00:12:07,980 --> 00:12:17,760 Any retracements here, going lower, I'm not looking at the fair value gap that you might be seeing two candles back to the left, I'm looking at the down close
60 00:12:17,760 --> 00:12:25,110 candle key going back to the left, lower further where it traded into the volume imbalance. I'm looking at that down close candle where it might want to come
61 00:12:25,110 --> 00:12:37,140 back down into that and accumulate more long positions. Because remember, the stops have already been cleared at 920 slow at 940. So I'm trusting the idea
62 00:12:37,140 --> 00:12:49,080 that that unrealized objective or premium array at 4030 which we talked about before the market opened and started trading this week is still a viable target.
63 00:12:50,790 --> 00:12:58,470 Now that's not a buy there because even though we dropped down into what looks like a volume I'm sorry fair value gap. I'm taking your attention to this down
64 00:12:58,470 --> 00:13:14,880 close candle right and dropping it wrong here is that right there is my bullish order block. Okay, so I'm focusing inside that candle and I will look to
65 00:13:14,880 --> 00:13:22,620 participate on the upside move from that candle as well.
66 00:13:35,760 --> 00:13:50,700 Okay, so I went long as we entered into about midpoint or mean threshold of that down close candle. And I'm trusting all my faith is now on the volume imbalance
67 00:13:50,730 --> 00:14:00,630 because price should not go back below the volume amount it can touch the top, it can touch the bottom of it, but it should not pierce it now, contrast this
68 00:14:00,630 --> 00:14:10,170 rationale and thinking with Forex because you would get smoked if you had your stock lost like this. Because it's it's rigged. Your your broker is going to
69 00:14:10,170 --> 00:14:20,880 cannibalize you. I don't care what anybody says, Okay. They will cannibalize you. We can't trade this precise. With Forex again, it won't happen. Not with
70 00:14:20,880 --> 00:14:37,440 real money, not size because they will snatch you. Futures is a much cleaner and more professionally managed asset class. Beautiful retested I look at that and
71 00:14:37,440 --> 00:14:50,610 my stop loss is just still at that low on the low candle prior to that run above the 930 high. So right now it's showing that my stop is negative four to $25.
72 00:14:50,610 --> 00:15:03,960 I'm gonna correct that. And I want to see it leave that order block level I have outlined here with the plan US Obi is annotating. It's a bullish order block. So
73 00:15:03,960 --> 00:15:16,650 we're inside the entire candle. And I'm expecting it to accumulate more smart money Long's. And then after measure of time, the algorithm will reprice higher.
74 00:15:16,650 --> 00:15:26,850 And you'll see I'll tell you when I'm looking for it. But right now, buying is not making this go up. That's not what's going on the average and holding price
75 00:15:26,850 --> 00:15:39,630 inside of that down close candle that I've identified as a bullish order block. And now, I'm stating that it needs to make a new high and go above the 930 high,
76 00:15:39,780 --> 00:15:56,280 and the higher highs formed just a few candles back. But it needs to do it quickly in strong. There's a small little city, which I'll annotate and that
77 00:15:56,280 --> 00:16:03,990 level needs to be breached. And this is a trigger that will tell me when the algorithm will start firing aggressively in spooling, and price is not because
78 00:16:03,990 --> 00:16:12,870 of buyers coming in, I'll tell you exactly the level it's going to have to break before you start seeing it accelerate to the upside. This is a signature that's
79 00:16:12,870 --> 00:16:24,270 unique to me. Once it takes that candles higher, it should accelerate in that trade below the lowest open or close or the swing low that's already in place
80 00:16:24,270 --> 00:16:24,720 right now.
81 00:16:32,040 --> 00:16:42,840 Notice where my stop loss is, it's at the low of the volume imbalance. There's an order block right there. But I'm not going to draw it out. Right there. It's
82 00:16:42,840 --> 00:16:54,450 touching the order block. And once it takes that level, it says needs to rip through once it does that. The algorithm will start spoiling aggressively in
83 00:16:54,450 --> 00:17:02,160 repricing higher it matters not how many buyers are coming in, there may no matter how many sellers are coming in, it's going to rip through that level. And
84 00:17:02,160 --> 00:17:16,770 then reprice to where the buy side is which is above the high formed at 953 or so like that before. And here we go acceleration like gas on a fire. And then
85 00:17:16,800 --> 00:17:29,100 your focus needs to be at that 4030 level then because I have 14 contracts on, I'm going to take nine off, I'm gonna have a larger position off. I don't see a
86 00:17:29,100 --> 00:17:44,010 continuation on the outside. So I want to take the bulk of it off here. And I'm watching how we stay above the high that was formed at 930 and 953 or so
87 00:17:52,890 --> 00:18:04,680 now how many times did it move five handles and all of this price movement in the direction that we were looking for for 4030 Several one to three times. Each
88 00:18:04,680 --> 00:18:14,160 one will potentially accumulate to 15 handles for the day, which is when I'm essentially going to be getting here shortly anyway, shoot down to a mitigation
89 00:18:14,160 --> 00:18:26,490 block it should accumulate new lungs and accelerate through and I have set to take nine off soon as it prints above 4030 There's a macro in price that takes
90 00:18:26,490 --> 00:18:37,860 place between 950 and 1010. And easy causes a price run and liquidity and or any fish inefficiency will be retreated to and now because I'm inside the narrative
91 00:18:37,860 --> 00:18:47,460 correctly about wine this morning. I told you when I was looking for you're watching the execute here the logic as to why it's going on. And once it starts
92 00:18:47,460 --> 00:18:48,180 to rip here
93 00:18:53,310 --> 00:19:05,550 and sliding on into home. rookie sensation ICT delivers it once again. Nine kind of nine contracts off now because it it stalled like that. I ended up hitting it
94 00:19:05,550 --> 00:19:19,800 again. And it puts me short now for contracts. So hurry up and close that because I was wondering why it was lagging. So $10,400 in one trade one run,
95 00:19:19,890 --> 00:19:33,450 risking no more than 1.3% of the account. highly precise, very specific ideas. Aggressive in next level superior stop loss management. And I think one could
96 00:19:33,660 --> 00:19:37,290 agree that this was pretty insightful. Until next time, be safe.