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ICT YT - 2023-01-16 - ICT Premarket Commentary for Week Ending 012023

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-01-16 10:47
1 00:00:05,069 --> 00:00:13,019 ICT: Good afternoon, folks, we are looking at the dollar indexes our daily chart. As you can see, these are the levels that I gave you first week of
2 00:00:13,109 --> 00:00:22,049 January, with the exception of this one drama, I did mention that we did get through this, we would attack the sell side below here that looks like it may be
3 00:00:22,379 --> 00:00:34,259 in the crosshairs going forward. The volume imbalance as long as we remain below that bomb this counter raise relative equal lows, fear a gap and the order block
4 00:00:34,679 --> 00:00:44,189 would be reached. And we have seen that this small little gap in here between the scandals Heinz candles low, they want to annotate that because we already
5 00:00:44,189 --> 00:00:55,589 have the paragraph here. Be mindful of Friday's high. Okay, so the only thing would change the tune for me on a near term and not see this level where I think
6 00:00:55,589 --> 00:01:10,379 101 point 31 or 1.29 is the next draw on liquidity. If we trade above this fair value gap, not the one that's here, not this one, the one below Wednesday's low
7 00:01:10,469 --> 00:01:21,719 in Friday's high that separation. If we trade above that, come back down and find some support, you would have two areas of imbalance this one and this one,
8 00:01:21,749 --> 00:01:30,329 we trade down to it like that. And that might cause it to high some support and work higher. It looks to me like it still is heavy. But we have not opened up
9 00:01:30,329 --> 00:01:45,329 for the new week for trading for Sunday. So some bout loo after one o'clock, my local time on the east coast of the United States. So we'll look at the hourly
10 00:01:45,329 --> 00:01:56,999 chart. See how we dropped down here came back up went back down. This to me is a balanced price range. So it's more likely in my opinion, to gravitate towards
11 00:01:56,999 --> 00:02:07,169 this low, then that a going higher. But that can all change on some of these opening. It's always, you know, who knows where they're gonna win or not. But
12 00:02:07,199 --> 00:02:18,149 based on what I'm seeing here on the chart before Sunday's opening, on the 15th of January 2023, I think that it's more likely to remain heavy. I'd like to see
13 00:02:18,149 --> 00:02:28,529 it gapped down, come back up fill gap and work towards this level here. But what I want and what the market gives me is two different things, right. So if we do
14 00:02:28,529 --> 00:02:35,249 reverse, let's say we get above the imbalance here and the one that showed on the daily chart, we do have relatively equal highs up here for boss on
15 00:02:35,249 --> 00:02:44,429 liquidity. And then we have the bearish breaker here, so this down close candle have that annotated on your chart, draw that out in time. For now, I don't think
16 00:02:44,429 --> 00:02:54,119 we need to worry about that. So going ahead, I'm still thinking risk on scenario, which is slightly weaker on the dollar. Alright, Euro dollar daily
17 00:02:54,119 --> 00:03:05,759 chart, here is the levels we had outlined here, in here. And the volume imbalance solely worked through the buy side and finally pierced by South Dakota
18 00:03:05,759 --> 00:03:16,799 here. This next area of buyside liquidity and the sell side imbalance, bison inefficiency, which is a fair shake up here. If we continuously move higher, pay
19 00:03:16,799 --> 00:03:26,609 attention to that in here, okay, it's to clean, small little inbound sell sides been offered. So if we go higher, we could see it try to reprice into this
20 00:03:26,909 --> 00:03:39,389 imbalance their hourly, we have Beisa liquidity here. Again, similar vein with what I mentioned on the dollar index, we went up back down back and forth came
21 00:03:39,389 --> 00:03:46,919 back down and shown initial strength. Now, we do go up into this imbalance here. This is a fear of a gap in the form of a city cellphone and bounced by its own
22 00:03:46,919 --> 00:04:00,959 inefficiency. If it trades above it, then this right here should not come back to be retested until these are taken out. And at least between here and here,
23 00:04:01,139 --> 00:04:11,279 halfway that that would be enough. So about 109 10 one and I'm oh five, four euro dollar. That will be our next objective. Again, barring any kind of
24 00:04:12,509 --> 00:04:25,499 reversals here. If we gapped down and fill it in trade off, we have cell side resting below here. So Sunday's are always a 5050. And I just like to see the
25 00:04:25,499 --> 00:04:36,719 things I would like to see stay intact when the higher timeframe which would be reaching higher for Euro and lower on dollar. Emini, s&p is our weekly chart. So
26 00:04:36,719 --> 00:04:45,809 we had a nice expansion last week, and I'm drawing your attention to half of this wick. So this is consequent encouragement or a wick, basically halfway
27 00:04:45,809 --> 00:04:57,749 point and be mindful this level here. Okay, so I don't have the annotation because it's within two main lines in here. On the downside, let's just say we
28 00:04:57,749 --> 00:05:07,229 drop back down and we drift lower This low of this candle here, which is the high of the fair value gap, represented by these three candles, it would need a
29 00:05:07,229 --> 00:05:16,829 support price here or half of consequent courage, I would not want to see it trade back down in. So the last line of defense for bowls in my opinion, longer
30 00:05:16,829 --> 00:05:30,029 term would be midpoint of this fair pay gap on the weekly chart reaching for objective of the midpoint of this weekly candle. So this candle here several
31 00:05:30,029 --> 00:05:42,269 weeks ago, we're measuring that wick and half of the way you get that level, drop your Fibonacci on this open to high where the 50% level is note that on
32 00:05:42,269 --> 00:05:57,299 your chart our chart on Emini s&p, bullish order block is levels I gave you on Twitter. Okay, so I gave you the order block in here and relatively equal highs.
33 00:05:57,299 --> 00:06:13,139 And we were looking forward to try to trade down into this area, maybe take out the low G back down into this wick. And we've taken by side, so I want to see
34 00:06:13,139 --> 00:06:23,459 you try to expand up into 4030 That was one of the objectives, we got to 4020 which is fine, but didn't get 4030. So I'd like to see a gap up there, gap up
35 00:06:23,459 --> 00:06:34,019 trade back down, close the gap and then continue on, that will be the best thing for me technically to expect but if we get lower filling in start to sell off a
36 00:06:34,019 --> 00:06:42,479 little bit that will be a little bit concerning for me is small little gap in here if we do get a gap lower, you might want to come back and work inside that
37 00:06:42,479 --> 00:06:52,979 level there. But it would be better to leave that open just like this one was okay, so that could be a measuring gap. So breakaway gap measuring gap sets a
38 00:06:52,979 --> 00:07:06,269 stage for around 4045 4040. By liquidity wrestling both relatively equal highs, here's all the business he wants to be called all the CPI out live on one minute
39 00:07:06,269 --> 00:07:21,509 chart all morning long. And then on Friday, we had the market drop lower. Here's your low wick there split that in half, that's constant encouragement, which is
40 00:07:21,509 --> 00:07:33,629 also half of the fear of a gap go back through the video and remember where these levels are and where they're anchored to here for that point of this to
41 00:07:33,629 --> 00:07:49,529 here and here for this wick that is a discount array. Barkat trades back up back into a pre Vega then there's how we rolled up, overlapped rolled up, overlap
42 00:07:49,529 --> 00:08:01,079 back to the previous candles high here rolled up and then left this small little gap here which it came back later on. overlapped there and roll rate backup.
43 00:08:02,099 --> 00:08:15,689 Small little gap came back in Back to the waterblock rallied up back down in rolled up breaker above it phone support. Rallies notice is not just going above
44 00:08:15,689 --> 00:08:24,359 the high here draw a line from that like Support Resistance teaches you digs in what is it digging into this actual candle right in here? That you're bullish
45 00:08:24,359 --> 00:08:36,569 breaker and finally gravitating towards the Vasa liquidity at 4020. As I mentioned last week finding a chart on Emini, s&p, here's that breaker thrown
46 00:08:36,569 --> 00:08:45,029 out, market trades down into the fairway get into consequent Kurzman of that candles wick mentioned before dropping down, go back to the video a couple times
47 00:08:45,029 --> 00:08:53,729 and you'll see what this is gonna give you homework and actually spelling it all out for you here. Short term high trade to the consequent encouragement twice,
48 00:08:54,179 --> 00:09:01,529 and then breaks higher this candle here breaks above the short term high so there's a shift in market structure with all the reasons why you would expect it
49 00:09:01,529 --> 00:09:11,219 to potentially provide that and it left the fair value gap here, trades down into beautiful redelivery order block rallies all of the back and forth
50 00:09:12,149 --> 00:09:23,819 balancing price action as it goes higher. Far side here, back down into a fairway get there once more is is reclaimed and where it's going back into an
51 00:09:23,819 --> 00:09:33,779 area. We're cutting through candles because we're not supplying demand. We rally up order block highs and support trades through look at the candle punching
52 00:09:33,809 --> 00:09:45,299 right through it one pass about the own breaker back down in support consolidation rallies digs into the boss of liquidity at the 4020 level and
53 00:09:45,299 --> 00:09:56,159 above the old high and ultimately, on a five minute chart you can see this as the market maker bimodal consolidation, lead consolidation come back in this is
54 00:09:56,159 --> 00:10:03,269 your cell distribution sheet Tamasha Smart Money reversal, low risk by
55 00:10:04,589 --> 00:10:15,839 imbalance, carried through, cut through candles, trades back down in accumulation of Long's rallies fair Vega. One more by secondary buying
56 00:10:15,839 --> 00:10:29,339 consequent encouragement of the gap, midpoint, rallies waterblock, find some support, rallies consolidation and runs it right up into the near the close of
57 00:10:29,339 --> 00:10:38,699 the day on Friday to get to the 4020 level and clearing the old high for buy sell liquidity. That's what we're looking at going ahead for the week. I'm
58 00:10:38,729 --> 00:10:50,489 continuously looking for reasons to allow bullishness on my buy side for index futures. But being aware that obviously we can gap opening on the week and
59 00:10:50,489 --> 00:11:00,479 change everything so we don't trade on Sundays. We prefer to see what the opening is going to be at 930 on Mondays so that way the traders can digest and
60 00:11:00,479 --> 00:11:08,369 build their sentiment ideas, build their liquidity polls based on their positions ahead of 930 opening and then we'll see who they punish next. Hope you
61 00:11:08,369 --> 00:11:10,469 found this insightful until next time, be safe