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ICT YT - 2023-01-09 - January 2023 NonFarm Payroll Review and HTF Concepts

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-09-26 13:32

Outline

00:00 - Daily chart of the day.

04:24 - Always have your chart, you’re gonna get tired of me saying this.

08:45 - Buy side and sell side imbalance in the 1 minute chart.

14:29 - What’s happening in the market.

19:54 - Daily candlestick scenario -.

25:52 - What to look for when the market has tipped its hand to you.

31:35 - How to use Twitter to hold yourself accountable on your chart.

37:19 - Liquidity is not theoretical -.

43:13 - The daily candle chart.

48:28 - Shifting in market structure -.

52:53 - What’s in the crosshairs?

Transcription

1 00:00:00 --> 00:00:09 ICT: Good evening, folks. Welcome back. I hope everybody's doing well. Are we doing a quick little review on Friday's price action? And I say, Yes, this is
2 00:00:09 --> 00:00:17 our daily chart. We will be looking at NASDAQ today. So my focus was on es, as you all know, if you've been following along on my Twitter account, if you don't
3 00:00:17 --> 00:00:25 know what that Twitter account is, go to my YouTube channel on the main page, and you'll see in the upper right hand corner, it'll say the official Twitter or
4 00:00:25 --> 00:00:36 the inner circle trader. That's my Twitter space. So if you recall, I mentioned that we were inside this trading range here. Until we get out of this range, get
5 00:00:36 --> 00:00:47 the scalper. Okay, so I mentioned that this area here also, this is a volume imbalance, that would be a likely draw up into and above the short term high,
6 00:00:47 --> 00:01:03 and we got that like gangbusters on Friday. Now, before you think I'm tooting my horn here, just note that this low at 3022 and a half, and then this low right
7 00:01:03 --> 00:01:16 here at 3814 and a half, those two levels, I was watching as a potential break, and then I target 3014, I felt like we had a really good chance of doing that.
8 00:01:17 --> 00:01:34 The low came in at 3819. Even on the micro e meaning you can look that up as m e s h 2023. It actually went below the 14th. So take a look at that, and you'll
9 00:01:34 --> 00:01:51 see an SMT divergence. And that means the m e s h 2023 went lower than the e s h 2023. Symbol. Okay. So there's something out there for you to study. On the
10 00:01:51 --> 00:02:01 upside there, this was the drawl I mentioned earlier in the week, and you can find it on the YouTube channel. In the videos. Whenever I make a notation of a
11 00:02:01 --> 00:02:12 level, especially if it's a daily chart, that is something you want to have on your chart at all times. And it needs to be visible on all timeframes. And I'll
12 00:02:13 --> 00:02:20 tell you what that means. When we get in the lower timeframe chart before right now. This is what you should have noted on your chart. So when we see on the
13 00:02:20 --> 00:02:33 lower timeframe chart, this orange level here, this rectangle, that's what this is. Okay, it's routed to this candles close on December 15 2022. And this candle
14 00:02:33 --> 00:02:49 is open on December 16 2020. Okay, so we're gonna drop down into an hourly chart, here's the hourly chart. And you can see, this is the relative lows I was
15 00:02:49 --> 00:02:54 looking for, as a potential drop down below that.
16 00:03:00 --> 00:03:11 So I was looking for that 3014 Based on these old lows. Okay, so in the event that nonfarm payroll Wikked, down below that that would have been what I was
17 00:03:11 --> 00:03:19 anticipating. And then if it would have done that, I would have been looking for something to draw back up into the very minimum right here. And then if it was
18 00:03:19 --> 00:03:32 their salary, obviously, going back a little bit further, looking up in the here, and this target was mentioned as upside earlier in the week, or Non Farm
19 00:03:32 --> 00:03:41 Payroll, you know, I'm not going to hold something to that level, even for a demo trade. Okay, so just keep that in mind when we go through our example here.
20 00:03:41 --> 00:03:51 So we had nice sales other quarter regressing below these relatively equal lows, sell side is self stops, anyone that's long, or wants to sell short, and always
21 00:03:51 --> 00:04:01 trying to make money going down if the market goes lower. If it goes below that, and rejects that, that is a stop rate. And then we would look for the opposing
22 00:04:02 --> 00:04:13 buy side, which would be here, here and above here, and if it's really going to have an extrapolation to the upside, that orange box is that daily volume
23 00:04:13 --> 00:04:23 imbalance I mentioned earlier in the week, last week. Alright, so we're going to drop down into a 15 minute time frame. And I want you to take a look at this
24 00:04:23 --> 00:04:33 candle right here. Okay, that's Friday. And again, always have your chart that New York you're gonna get tired of me saying this all the time, but you'd be
25 00:04:33 --> 00:04:41 surprised how many folks on Twitter how many times people send me a message through TradingView they'll leave a comment in videos. If I comment on someone
26 00:04:41 --> 00:04:52 else's video, though. They'll ask you know what, how do I have my time set like yours? Incidentally, also, if you've been following along on the ES. In my
27 00:04:52 --> 00:05:03 commentary on Twitter, you have discovered that I am time traveling. I'm 10 minutes ahead of your chart. If that proves I'm doing it live, because if you
28 00:05:03 --> 00:05:13 haven't subscribed to a live feed, that means you're not getting live data. And you can't trade with delayed data on trading you, you can only do that with live
29 00:05:13 --> 00:05:23 execution with real time data. Okay, so the reason why my chart looks like it's 10 minutes ahead is because I'm doing it with real time data. And not delayed
30 00:05:23 --> 00:05:32 data, not Market Replay like a Ninja Trader, okay? There's nothing wrong with practicing using a market replay function, studying prices, it prints but you
31 00:05:32 --> 00:05:41 can't press the button in trading view. So it's kind of like a litmus test for those individuals that want to say that this is always hindsight or cherry
32 00:05:41 --> 00:05:52 picked. You know, I'm putting it out there on Twitter, everything's time stamped, as you'll see. So, go to this candle right here. That is the midnight
33 00:05:52 --> 00:06:07 candle in New York local time, right there. And we're going to drop a level right there. So 3047 and a half, we'll make that purple. Honestly, why this one,
34 00:06:07 --> 00:06:18 they're thinking of prints. And then if around that a Ravens fan by the way, a lot of you will ask him, are you Ravens fan? No, I don't. I don't like football.
35 00:06:18 --> 00:06:30 I don't like it at all. So that right there is our filter for power three. Now what does that mean? Well, for power three, if we're thinking that it's going to
36 00:06:30 --> 00:06:40 go down, you would ideally want to see a move above it, and then go back below it and then create some kind of selling opportunity and then reach down into
37 00:06:40 --> 00:06:55 that 3014. But we got real close to 3814. Well, 19 is, in my opinion, closest only like five handles away. So if we see this run up here on Non Farm Payroll
38 00:06:55 --> 00:07:02 at 830. And we're we're not trading on Non Farm Payroll, I pushed the button and manage the position, as you'll see here. And if you've watched it already on
39 00:07:02 --> 00:07:14 Twitter, I showed a screenshot of each progression. As I was calling each level, the whole business is on Twitter. So I'm trying to steal the thunder from going
40 00:07:14 --> 00:07:23 through those tweets yourself. And now it's probably daunting for some of you, you want to have a handheld experience where I'm doing all the screen captures
41 00:07:23 --> 00:07:32 for you all the busy work for you, but you're never gonna learn doing that way. Okay, so I'm preaching to the folks that are trying to learn. If you are lazy,
42 00:07:32 --> 00:07:42 you will not do well here. Okay. So I'm demanding you spend time doing this yourself, I'm going to guide you, but you have to be able to do it yourself.
43 00:07:42 --> 00:07:51 Otherwise, your trading journal is going to be empty, or you won't have one, and you won't have the benefit of learning. So at 830, we had an run above that
44 00:07:51 --> 00:08:03 level. And I knew that on Twitter real time, I said take your attention to 3014 because it could easily despite down there now had it done add for 14. And if it
45 00:08:03 --> 00:08:12 expanded beyond that I had 3804 also known as a potential level. So in the event, because I don't know what they're going to do with the employment number,
46 00:08:13 --> 00:08:22 this is the reason why I don't trade this Non Farm Payroll event. Now, I've taught my students in old mentorship that there's a way to trade the market
47 00:08:22 --> 00:08:33 after that first 30 minutes or so on off on payroll. But it's not something that I would advise anybody doing. It's good for studying price action. And I gave an
48 00:08:33 --> 00:08:40 example of walking through it on Twitter calling the levels where I thought it was going to go and push the button they managed to stop and manage positions
49 00:08:40 --> 00:08:50 and partials in the whole business and you'll see obviously the executions here. But we failed to go back below this low here. And when we go into lower
50 00:08:50 --> 00:09:02 timeframes, it'll make more sense but let's jump to a five minute now. Okay, so we have an imbalance here in the form of a buy side and sell side of
51 00:09:02 --> 00:09:14 inefficiency. That means buy side was offered. It's inefficient in what sell side. So in other words, it needs to have some movement between this candles
52 00:09:14 --> 00:09:23 high in that candles low so your your focus should be right in here. This range
53 00:09:28 --> 00:09:41 okay, right in here. This candle is high. And this candles low. There's only one candle between those two candles. It's this one here. And it's one big beefy
54 00:09:42 --> 00:09:55 caffeinated candle. Okay, back in the 90s when I was still in a live s&p Trading Room on Internet Relay Chat, yes, how old I am. The every time we would create a
55 00:09:55 --> 00:10:02 big candle like this, I would call it a caffeine bar. And it's just a lot of energy and you Hear me sometimes say I want to see an energetic move. Every time
56 00:10:02 --> 00:10:13 I see it, my mind goes back to the good old days on merch. But you're I should be gravitating to these types of movements. This is a bias and analysis on
57 00:10:13 --> 00:10:28 inefficiency, its category for a PD array is fair Vega. But it's distinction is a buy side and balance sell side inefficiency, busy, b i s i, okay. So don't
58 00:10:28 --> 00:10:35 bother googling it. Because this is all my language. This is my vocabulary, I created this. So that way you can differentiate what it is I'm referring to. And
59 00:10:35 --> 00:10:44 throughout the year, you'll know exactly what this is. Okay, by time this time next year, you're going to be a pro at it. So you can see how we went down into
60 00:10:44 --> 00:10:54 that area here, dipped into it, and then turned around and attacked these relative equal highs. Now, before I dropped down into the one minute chart, I
61 00:10:54 --> 00:11:06 wanted to kind of take you through this thought process. Worried about in here, I tweeted and said note 3814. Because we could have easily spike back down
62 00:11:06 --> 00:11:20 through here, clean this area up ran the stops on anyone who was long with stop losses below that old 50 minute low. Bring it back here so you can see. So
63 00:11:20 --> 00:11:37 here's old lows here. And there's one more segment of price action. Right there. That's where those sell stops I was referring to all week. So if it was able to
64 00:11:37 --> 00:11:45 do that, that's fine, then I would have been looking for a run to take these out. But it didn't give me that. So go through my tweets on Friday, you'll see
65 00:11:45 --> 00:11:55 me refer again, as it's dropping down. Pay attention to 3014. But then we get into this area here, which I was watching, but I want to see proof. Okay, I
66 00:11:55 --> 00:12:04 don't want to just go on there and cosign something on Twitter and not have any idea what it is I'm looking for. I want to see proof as to what it would likely
67 00:12:04 --> 00:12:12 do. If it's not going to go to 3014. That's fine. There's no trade there. And that's selling short. I want to see if he can get to 3014. But if it cannot, and
68 00:12:12 --> 00:12:25 it rejects this bison unbalanced sell sign in efficiency, what does that mean to reject? Well, it's not getting through it. So in other words in the easiest
69 00:12:25 --> 00:12:36 language I could provide for you in regards to that. The lowest portion of that range between this candles low in this candle is high. Anytime you have a big
70 00:12:36 --> 00:12:43 one single candle and it's separated with the candles high before it here, and a candle after it's low here. And it's just that range that's shaded in blue,
71 00:12:44 --> 00:12:59 there's only one pass one candle. Okay. That is significant when prices coming back down into it. But when there's high impact news drivers like well nonfarm
72 00:12:59 --> 00:13:14 payroll or FOMC, it can overshoot these areas. Okay, so when I'm looking at price action, if I don't have a high impact news driver, like FOMC, or non farm
73 00:13:14 --> 00:13:23 payrolls, which I wouldn't be trading on non farm payrolls anyway, despite what you're going to see later on. When a regular day, like immediate impact or high
74 00:13:23 --> 00:13:31 impact news driver, that's not FOMC. In other words, there's an interest rate announcement based report that's coming out for just Non Farm Payroll, if I'm
75 00:13:31 --> 00:13:40 just studying price, maybe you're looking at Non Farm Payroll you a couple times throughout this year with you all just to reinforce the idea of what it is I try
76 00:13:40 --> 00:13:49 to avoid doing on non farm payrolls. That way, you want to see me lose, you want to see me get it wrong, I'm going to stand in front of you live on a Non Farm
77 00:13:49 --> 00:14:01 Payroll, and do the whole business right in front of you. And you'll see why I don't want to touch that day, because the elements of precision are likely to be
78 00:14:01 --> 00:14:10 outside my grasp. And it's because it's highly manipulated. So if it's highly manipulated, I don't want to be in that. Okay, and you shouldn't want to either.
79 00:14:11 --> 00:14:21 Now, if you're forced by compulsion or lack of discipline, you just have to be in here studying or nonfarm payroll because you feel drawn to it like a moth to
80 00:14:21 --> 00:14:35 a flame. demo it, okay, don't treat it live. And then you'll see quickly why you shouldn't do it. Okay. But this purple level here. Look what's happening, the
81 00:14:35 --> 00:14:45 market drops back down. I gave it the likelihood of maybe it ran up in here to get above the opening price, and then does it break below this area here and
82 00:14:45 --> 00:14:57 then tagged the 3014 level. Now if it would have went below 314 came up into a fair value gap. I would have looked for a run to 30 04. And you can find that
83 00:14:57 --> 00:15:06 30 04 level on your daily chart, isn't it? Odili low, there's your homework assignment for that. But it doesn't matter, because already gave that out.
84 00:15:07 --> 00:15:18 already gave it out in the previous discussion about why the levels were deemed being done. And I think that would be seen or heard rather, on my twitter space.
85 00:15:18 --> 00:15:27 That's on Friday morning, why I don't trade non farm payrolls. So I gave you the level specifically there. If you want to listen, that sort of space, you can
86 00:15:27 --> 00:15:36 obviously go through the chart and find those old daily lows, and you'll see where 38 04 is, right. So anyway, because we failed and rejected to go below
87 00:15:36 --> 00:15:42 this level here, you're gonna have to drop down to a one minute chart, which we'll do now.
88 00:15:53 --> 00:16:05 Alright, so here's that same boss Annabelle sales on efficiency, it's been refined to show on just the one minute chart. So we have that drop down in here,
89 00:16:06 --> 00:16:25 then we rallied. And if you look at the tweets, you're gonna see it a weird tweet where it says, Put a line on 3839 and 38, six, I'm sorry, 30 36.75. I
90 00:16:25 --> 00:16:34 think it's one of those. And I read it wrong. And I got 50 year old eyes, folks, I apologize. But what I was trying to get your attention to was here, okay, this
91 00:16:34 --> 00:16:43 little area right there, if that can stay open. And this is where I was gonna get at this area here. If it stays open, normally, it doesn't trade back down
92 00:16:43 --> 00:16:46 into it. Let me highlight here.
93 00:16:59 --> 00:17:11 Alright, so that area there stays open, though, as the price doesn't go down into it. And short term highs taken out. Here's a short term high right there.
94 00:17:12 --> 00:17:22 Okay, so this stayed open, and the short term High was taken out to the upside. There's a small little gap right in here, notice where all of this is occurring,
95 00:17:22 --> 00:17:36 see this dotted line here, you're going to see a tweet that I'm gonna be able to put right on top of the chart. And you'll see how I'm great here I'm calling
96 00:17:37 --> 00:17:52 that the 3876. Buy stops are in the crosshairs. That means that I'm watching to see if this level stays open. And if we get above the short term high right
97 00:17:52 --> 00:18:04 there. Because if we do, then it's likely to do what run to take out these relatively equal highs. See in retail books, and educators that teach support
98 00:18:04 --> 00:18:14 resistance, which I don't trade, they're gonna see that as resistance, it went above this high here, hit went up here stopped, dropped down aggressively. So
99 00:18:14 --> 00:18:21 naturally, anybody that wants to make money, they're gonna think, get short. And as long as it doesn't go above here, you're good. Got a stop loss up there, it's
100 00:18:21 --> 00:18:33 fine. Well, I teach my students how to attack retail logic and theory, because it's based on fallacy. It's based on things that aren't making the market move
101 00:18:33 --> 00:18:42 higher or lower. It's providing bull's eyes in targets for people to hunt liquidity. Now, you're gonna see a lot of educators, if you haven't already seen
102 00:18:42 --> 00:18:51 it already. And I get a lot of this from other educators, though, they'll talk about my opinion to the marketplace. And they'll say what I'm saying is flawed
103 00:18:51 --> 00:19:04 logic. And they'll say things like that nobody's hunting your stock? Well, that's not true. Because if that was, if it was true, then you wouldn't see my
104 00:19:04 --> 00:19:17 concepts be as precise as they are. The market is delivered on the basis of liquidity and imbalanced rebalance. That's it, that's the only thing is
105 00:19:17 --> 00:19:26 happening. Otherwise, it's some kind of unexpected event where manipulation comes in, where nobody can determine what it's going to do. And you're going to
106 00:19:26 --> 00:19:35 lose regardless if you're in the marketplace. That's unfortunate. That's what happens sometimes. But that's the inherent risk. That's what everybody takes on
107 00:19:35 --> 00:19:45 when they speculate in these markets with real money. So when the market does in fact, trade about the short term high here, any retracement down into this area
108 00:19:45 --> 00:19:56 here. What area this candle here, from the high to the opening rate at that dotted line. What is that dotted line again? That's the midnight opening price
109 00:19:56 --> 00:20:07 in New York time on Friday. So power three is what we're now thinking it's going to go to here, you'll see proof of that, because I've tweeted it. And you still
110 00:20:07 --> 00:20:19 see the tweets have mentioned, I don't delete any tweet, no tweets being deleted ever. As it drops back down into this candles high to open, I'm getting real
111 00:20:19 --> 00:20:32 close to that midnight opening price on Friday. So that means I'm doing what I'm going to try to buy at or just below the opening price at midnight, because my
112 00:20:32 --> 00:20:51 expectation is and this is what I teach my students if this is what the range is likely to do on a daily chart, in other words, this hypothetical candlestick
113 00:20:57 --> 00:21:11 Okay, let's say this hypothetical candlestick represents the daily chart. Okay, and I use obviously green. So let's use this here
114 00:21:24 --> 00:21:25 Okay, so we have
115 00:21:36 --> 00:21:48 this scenario here, where we're expecting the opening price. Again, think about this candle. On the daily timeframe. Right now we're looking at a one minute
116 00:21:48 --> 00:21:55 chart. So don't be confused by this, okay, and the showing the logic, the opening price will be this price right here.
117 00:22:00 --> 00:22:08 And what gets confusing for some of you in this because you haven't been properly mentored, and you just listen, other people take my stuff and teach you
118 00:22:08 --> 00:22:17 incorrectly. Because they're not paying attention. They're not taking notes, and they haven't learned how to trade profitably with the concepts. So I'm trying to
119 00:22:17 --> 00:22:24 correct all of you. Okay, I know you're overzealous and you want to go out, make your courses and your mentorships and all that other stuff, but you're actually
120 00:22:24 --> 00:22:34 hurting people. Okay, so there's a lot of reasons why I'm doing what I'm doing this last year. But pay attention. Because if you're trying to rip me off and
121 00:22:34 --> 00:22:45 rebrand my stuff, at least do the benefit of helping the people that's going to be affected by you teaching my stuff incorrectly, by doing at least better than
122 00:22:45 --> 00:22:58 you used to. And that means by doing this, the opening price at midnight miracle time that is your daily opening price. I don't care what trading views opening
123 00:22:58 --> 00:23:09 prices when you put on a daily chart, and like look at the daily candles opening price. That's not accurate. Okay, that's hours and hours away from what it is
124 00:23:09 --> 00:23:21 that the algorithm is going to refer to. You want to have New York at midnight, that opening price this go up a 15 minute chart timeframe in you'll have it so
125 00:23:21 --> 00:23:34 you want to have that price noted that's what I have here. Remember, we walked from the 15 minute chart and extended it out in time. If we're bullish by having
126 00:23:34 --> 00:23:46 this level on your chart you want to be buying at that level or beneath it in worst case scenario you want to be buying Meerut.
127 00:23:56 --> 00:24:05 So, your thought process would be like this on a daily chart your watch and you'll see me doing this with live commentary starting in February where I'm
128 00:24:05 --> 00:24:18 expecting the accumulation phase on a daily range to occur below a specific level and you'll see how it's you're in a 90% club. Okay if you if you do these
129 00:24:18 --> 00:24:34 types of things and your draw on liquidity was that more or less the same this level up here was the 3095 and a quarter level don't be discouraged or
130 00:24:34 --> 00:24:46 distracted by the actual price over here. But let's just say that was your your draw on liquidity. Okay, I don't want to be unrealistic and say that you would
131 00:24:46 --> 00:24:55 have known about the volume imbalance had you not been watching the videos if you were to watch the videos and obviously you would have but let's just say
132 00:24:55 --> 00:25:06 that was your draw on liquidity for buy side Based on the weekly chart based on what you expected, in terms of higher timeframe analysis, I can say this,
133 00:25:07 --> 00:25:15 because you watch me do it this week, even though I was looking for something down here, it matters not what I'm showing you is the logic as to how I shifted
134 00:25:15 --> 00:25:29 gears, intraday Friday and worked in this whole scenario here. But you would be trying to buy below the midnight opening price on any day. Don't think this is
135 00:25:29 --> 00:25:40 just a nonfarm payroll event you're trying to buy at the opening price or below on a daily candle when your bullish. And if you get above the opening price,
136 00:25:40 --> 00:25:49 like you see it doing here. And here, as it goes back close to the opening price. You can be a buyer there too, if there's logic behind it in the logic I
137 00:25:49 --> 00:25:57 use was, these two down close candles is a bullish order block. It's also a swing high. We went through it here. So this is what I teach you to look for,
138 00:25:57 --> 00:26:05 for what the shift in market structure, meaning the market has tipped his hand to you that it wants to go higher. So if it's going to go higher, where's it
139 00:26:05 --> 00:26:16 gonna go to? Well, you have an imbalance right here, right? And that's fine. You have a bearish breaker here, that's fine too, but look closely, actually take a
140 00:26:16 --> 00:26:26 step away from your computer screen back up in your room right now. Look at this chart a little bit further away, about 1012 feet away, you're gonna see these
141 00:26:26 --> 00:26:31 levels here, way too smooth, it looks too perfect.
142 00:26:36 --> 00:26:47 It looks too much like classic Support Resistance. And here's a note that you want to have in your study journal. And anytime you see levels in your chart,
143 00:26:47 --> 00:27:01 they're like this, or they're just too perfect and smooth. I always say this, okay, but smooth edges, like to be made jagged. That means when it's smooth like
144 00:27:01 --> 00:27:12 this, the market will rip into that may make it jagged. It doesn't like to have smooth highs and smooth lows, it will always, always find a way to go back into
145 00:27:12 --> 00:27:22 those levels may not happen right away may not happen the same trading day. But it will always look to go into those levels again. That's what the algorithm
146 00:27:22 --> 00:27:34 does. So let's go back to our analogy hits, let's assume that this level here is this level right there on a daily chart. So that level for whatever reason, we
147 00:27:34 --> 00:27:43 think there's something up here that is going to be a draw on price. Okay, liquidity up here is making the highest probability that the market will want to
148 00:27:43 --> 00:27:53 gravitate to that level. And that just happens to be on our daily chart, that's the level you would have. Well, while you're watching price, when it's down
149 00:27:53 --> 00:28:06 here, like this meandering around like it was doing here. I'm not paying attention to all of this. This is all based on the reaction to 830 in the
150 00:28:06 --> 00:28:19 morning. Not from payroll. So I'm not worried about this price action. I look at this and ignore it. I want to see where the real ranges is here. than they did
151 00:28:19 --> 00:28:28 this fake run. Okay, it looks like it's gonna break this but it doesn't tears off goes lower into our bots out of balance, also on an efficiency, then we wait
152 00:28:28 --> 00:28:36 does it break lower, I'm not chasing it. I'm just observing. I'm watching I told you note 3014. See if you can get down there. It didn't want to do it, then it
153 00:28:36 --> 00:28:47 rallies away, leaves this area in here and I gave you the two wrong price action levels. We look at this low here. You're looking at this price right there. If
154 00:28:47 --> 00:29:05 you look at this candles low, it's 38.25 30 38.25. And I said 3839. I believe it's what I tweeted. And it was inaccurate. I apologize. 3839. Too hot is wrong.
155 00:29:05 --> 00:29:16 And I was looking at this level here, the high 36.75. So that's what I was looking for. And I was watching obviously you knew I'm looking at a one minute
156 00:29:16 --> 00:29:26 chart, I was commenting over a woman chart. But I wanted you to have that on your your trifold you have a line on this level in this level. Reason why
157 00:29:26 --> 00:29:33 because I was going to come back and talk about this level today. More specifically, I was going to do it Friday when I didn't have the time to deal
158 00:29:33 --> 00:29:40 but I apologize. But the market wasn't able to get down to that. And then with the short term high it breaks above it. So there's a shift in market structure
159 00:29:40 --> 00:29:53 there. So I'm looking at all of this area here below the opening price. And now this level is this conceptually in my mind. In my mind, this is what I'm seeing
160 00:29:53 --> 00:30:02 the algorithm refer to. I am not. I don't care about this. I don't care about every candle price. Are there see when you're looking at price action, you're
161 00:30:02 --> 00:30:18 getting caught up in all of this noise, my focus, my absolute focus is only here. Right there, inside that box, that's what I'm focusing on. That's the
162 00:30:18 --> 00:30:24 initial framework that the algorithm is going to work with him. Why? Because that's the dealing range. That's is where we are. This is where we made the high
163 00:30:24 --> 00:30:35 for the day, we've left liquidity in place on in the form of by side, we broke down back into a discount, we have not went lower, we create a short term high,
164 00:30:36 --> 00:30:45 this range was not closed in or even retreated to, then we had a short term high broke there, with this candle moving higher. So in my mind, I'm thinking this
165 00:30:45 --> 00:30:59 level here, this line represents this here. So I'm looking at the daily range like this, even though, okay, that we have traded up here. And we've already
166 00:30:59 --> 00:31:09 essentially been here, I don't care. I'm thinking about it, just like the algorithm will, if we want to personify the algorithm. So when it's coded to
167 00:31:09 --> 00:31:19 refer to an old dealing range, that's what this is here, this high to low, I believe it's going to do what expand outside of that range in the form of
168 00:31:19 --> 00:31:31 external range liquidity, it's going to go outside the boundaries created by this high, and that low in the form of eight up and you'll see me tweet as you
169 00:31:31 --> 00:31:39 go through Fridays to eat and you also see me actually copy the tweets link. And you can put them in your trading view chart, just copy my to your anybody else's
170 00:31:39 --> 00:31:49 tweet. And right click on the chart somewhere and click paste after you copy the link of any particular Twitter post. Especially mine, because you want to be
171 00:31:49 --> 00:31:58 able to hold me accountable everything I say on Twitter, go through each day, and post whatever it is I drew your attention to, I'm not deleting anything,
172 00:31:58 --> 00:32:06 you'll never see me delete a tweet, it will never happen. If I'm right, you're gonna see it, if I'm wrong, you're gonna see it, it is what it is. I'm out here
173 00:32:06 --> 00:32:15 without a safety net. Okay, and walk in the high wire. And I have no shame or fear of it. Okay, it is what it is. But I'm also teaching that non farm payrolls
174 00:32:15 --> 00:32:23 is a day that you don't want to be trading. So I really wanted to do poorly on non farm payrolls. So I can say, see, that's why. So don't don't read into what
175 00:32:23 --> 00:32:32 I'm about to show you. Because I don't think that it's me saying, in secret. We all really trade non farm payrolls. No, we don't, okay, we're not trying to do
176 00:32:32 --> 00:32:41 that. But you can practice it. And that's fine. But this little segment of price action, that's the focus. That's the setup, that's the only thing that you would
177 00:32:41 --> 00:32:48 need to be concerned about. At the moment, you don't worry about the hourly chart, you don't worry about the four hour chart, you're not worried about the
178 00:32:48 --> 00:32:56 daily chart, you're not worried about the weekly chart, you're not worried about the 15, the 10 Minute, the seven minute, the three minute, the two minute, this
179 00:32:56 --> 00:33:09 is it, this is the framework right here. The fact that it shifted above this return height right there sets the stage for a run above here. Okay, and I don't
180 00:33:09 --> 00:33:23 know, and you didn't know that it was going to go up to 3896 and a quarter. But once it got above this level, here, I took 10 contracts off of a 12 contract
181 00:33:23 --> 00:33:42 position, and I left two contracts on. By having that run above that 3076 and a quarter level, I drew your attention on Twitter, that 3895 For buyside. And then
182 00:33:42 --> 00:33:57 I had a limit order at 3896 and a quarter. And it reached up in there. And this business also had 3085 noted is the old daily high as well. And you can find
183 00:33:57 --> 00:34:06 that level on your daily chart. Go back over the course of last week and you'll see previous day's highs. 3085 wasn't a little while that I tweeted, okay, I'm
184 00:34:06 --> 00:34:12 not going to have that tweet on the chart because it becomes too much. But you're welcome to go through my tweets. And whenever I'm giving you key levels
185 00:34:12 --> 00:34:19 are things that I'm looking for, for today. Drop them on your chart, after the fact like if you're in school, if you're running a business, or if you're
186 00:34:19 --> 00:34:29 working your job, and you can't do live what I'm doing. It's educational for you to see where on the chart I was saying, and then find the things I'm teaching
187 00:34:29 --> 00:34:39 you. Okay, and trust me by doing that. It will provide you a better perspective on what it is that was being done at the time. Even though you don't have the
188 00:34:39 --> 00:34:48 benefit of being there. Right then, at least this is the closest thing you'll have to seeing what it is I was trying to draw your attention to. So back to
189 00:34:48 --> 00:35:04 this example, if it's inside this, let me go back here. If I'm just looking at this shapelier here, let me do this So inside that it's not nice color. I'm
190 00:35:04 --> 00:35:18 looking at this shaded area in here. And I believe it's likely to go from here. If it takes up this high, from here, up to here. So I'm in envisioning the daily
191 00:35:18 --> 00:35:27 candle looking like this right now, even though we've already been here and came down. Right now the algorithm is thinking, Okay, we're real close to the opening
192 00:35:27 --> 00:35:38 price at midnight, which is right there, we ran above it. So it did this, it went up a little bit. And now we're back down inside the middle of the range
193 00:35:38 --> 00:35:47 that would be represented by this low to this high. And then when it drops back down, it's getting real close that opening price again. So it's doing something
194 00:35:47 --> 00:36:00 like this. Okay, and I'm anticipating that the daily range will now expand up into this level here, where buyside will be, which is represented by this high
195 00:36:00 --> 00:36:12 here, that's why this red line is being imitated on the chart. So I'm expecting price to keep gravitating higher. And that will be something like here. And then
196 00:36:13 --> 00:36:22 continuously, gravitating towards that high like it's doing here, I'm not getting tricked into thinking it's gonna go down, there's levels way to clean,
197 00:36:23 --> 00:36:32 clean being it's smooth, it's like relatively equal highs, the markets not going to leave that and actually tweet also, I said, I do believe we're going to go to
198 00:36:32 --> 00:36:37 38 76.25, because it's so close, it would be criminal
199 00:36:38 --> 00:36:48 to leave it intact. Okay, so all this time it's dropping down, I'm not worried about it not going up there. So it gives you the confidence to stay with the
200 00:36:48 --> 00:36:59 idea. And then finally, when it runs above it, like that, this is what the daily candle looks like. And I'm gonna watch and see this and keep digging into my
201 00:36:59 --> 00:37:16 next objective, which would be an old high at 3085. So with 3085, which being an old daily high, there's by sight above that, what I knew that it's just the way
202 00:37:16 --> 00:37:24 it is large funds like the US previous day's highs and lows. So that liquidity is real, it's not theoretical, it's not something like you see on a DOM, a depth
203 00:37:24 --> 00:37:34 of market ladder, or something to that effect. That's why I'm not a fan of that, because those things can be spoofed, fund managers are not pulling their orders
204 00:37:34 --> 00:37:43 in and out, okay, they're placing them there, they're hard, and it's going to be what it is, it's going to run to them. And that's why that type of purchase
205 00:37:43 --> 00:37:55 perspective on where liquidity is, or daily highs for buy stops, or daily low or lows for sell stops, and you can make a lot of money trading those types of
206 00:37:55 --> 00:38:04 pools of liquidity, they can act as targets and it can act as a framework for entries. Okay, so as you can see, the market does in fact trade up to there as
207 00:38:04 --> 00:38:16 well and I took a partial there and then left one contract on for 3896 in a quarter, that level being the next draw and you'll you'll see a tweet and whole
208 00:38:16 --> 00:38:30 time it's doing this expansion up higher higher heart and we're not thinking oh, it's going to collapse in reverse because the candle if it's going to have a big
209 00:38:30 --> 00:38:42 move like this, it's probably going to close near or at its daily high. Now think about that. Because if you can do this, you can hold on to the last hour
210 00:38:42 --> 00:38:51 of trading which would be three o'clock and then something happens at three o'clock I've already taught you or I've introduced to you where the market can
211 00:38:51 --> 00:38:55 come back into its range and I want you to see it like this
212 00:39:27 --> 00:39:37 Okay, so we can see that it goes up into that daily volume imbalance member that orange rectangle I drew on the daily chart timeframe, it goes right up until
213 00:39:37 --> 00:39:44 look at the bodies of the candles respecting the top end of that, then it drops back down into the low end of it bounces around hangs in there and then leaves
214 00:39:44 --> 00:39:59 it see that and here is three o'clock rate there. So if your target happened to be this daily volume imbalance
215 00:40:13 --> 00:40:24 that could look like something like this. So in your mind's eye and tracking what the daily range would look like on a daily chart, I mean, you would
216 00:40:24 --> 00:40:31 obviously have a daily chart referred to throughout the day, that gives you the confidence to stay with the trade because I get a lot of questions all the time.
217 00:40:32 --> 00:40:39 How do I how do I stay in these trades? How do I not get shaken out of them, because I'm thinking like this, because this is my concept of power three, power
218 00:40:39 --> 00:40:49 three is accumulation, manipulation, distribution. So if accumulation smart money's doing long, at that time, I didn't know for certain, I have to wait for
219 00:40:49 --> 00:40:58 a third to come in, do the manipulation, and then it will tip its hand. And I just walked you through that based on this short term high being broken, and the
220 00:40:58 --> 00:41:11 inefficiency for the market to fill in that box out and now sells on efficiency. So 3014 was no longer a factor. And the tweets took your attention to now we're
221 00:41:11 --> 00:41:23 going to look for 3876 and a quarter, then we're gonna look for 3885 and then we're gonna look for 3896 and a quarter and then unfolded like a script. So in
222 00:41:23 --> 00:41:32 my mind, I'm thinking this is the daily candle. I'm not being swayed by all the little minor fluctuations on these one minute candles, which is what makes
223 00:41:32 --> 00:41:42 everybody think that it's noise. It's not noise, it's the same price that the candles using to make the daily chart candlestick. This is a matter of knowing
224 00:41:43 --> 00:41:52 the rules of engagement and knowing that Okay, once we get to the last hour, three o'clock if it gets to a target like that be done. Be content with that
225 00:41:52 --> 00:41:58 because it's likely to do what it's likely to pull back into the range and create
226 00:42:15 --> 00:42:27 little bit of a wick at the top end of the candle. So inside this little area now this little retracement and it closes off the high. So if this is the high
227 00:42:27 --> 00:42:37 you get this box and because this is going to be flittering flittering even a real word, I just made it. So let's go with it. The high here we're gonna say is
228 00:42:37 --> 00:42:52 that and it might pull off and then close trading for the day. Right there, that closing price. So we see it over here. Here's the high short term low it breaks,
229 00:42:53 --> 00:43:11 comes back up into a volume imbalance. We're going to tag sell side right below here. Boom, where's it closed off the high there. So it looks like this for the
230 00:43:11 --> 00:43:25 daily candle. Okay, are very close to it. Because it's not the best in terms of scale. They won't look exactly like that. But conceptually, it's obviously the
231 00:43:25 --> 00:43:35 best I can do artistically. Okay. And for the purposes of looking at the daily chart, let's look at the daily candle
232 00:43:35 --> 00:43:57 now. There it is. Okay, so obviously, if you're new, and this is the first time you've watched the video from me, and you're looking at this one, it's going to
233 00:43:57 --> 00:44:04 look like oh, well, you know, anybody can do what you're doing. You're talking about it after the fact no, go back a couple days ago last week, and you'll see
234 00:44:04 --> 00:44:11 me actually refer this level right there. And that's where it's gonna draw to will to be above this high here. The next high will be what this one. So there's
235 00:44:11 --> 00:44:20 buyside above that. And there's the little volume and bounce. You don't see this thought in box, folks. Okay, it's not classic Support Resistance. It's now same
236 00:44:20 --> 00:44:29 side as supply and demand stuff. Okay. Chris Laurie doesn't teach this. Larry Williams doesn't even know anything about it. Okay, nobody, nobody's teaching
237 00:44:29 --> 00:44:38 this but me. Okay, and I want you to understand that if I had a way of showing you where to find this information quicker without having to do all this work, I
238 00:44:38 --> 00:44:47 would do it. Okay, believe me, I would do it. But it doesn't exist anywhere else. Okay, so when I clarify these concepts, these things are going to be shown
239 00:44:47 --> 00:44:55 and taught correctly from me. There's no other outside source but me. So I want you to learn it correctly. That way you're not going to hurt other people trying
240 00:44:55 --> 00:45:04 to be smart and pretend that you can run a mentorship when you don't know You know what you're doing? Alright, so here's the woman chart. And this is the best
241 00:45:04 --> 00:45:14 I could come up with conceptually going through the individual fluctuations in this chart with the exception of the actual tweets you see here, you can see the
242 00:45:14 --> 00:45:28 times, okay? And don't take this, for what it is being shown here, these are actual links to the tweets, okay. And if I click on this right here, it'll take
243 00:45:28 --> 00:45:35 me to the direct link here. If I click on this one, it will take me to this tweet here. If I clicked on this one, it'll take me to that one. Just go back
244 00:45:35 --> 00:45:49 and look at Friday, January 6 2023, at these respective Times, New York local time. Okay. And you will see that these tweets are in fact, right there. Right
245 00:45:49 --> 00:46:05 there 3876 By stops, what is that? That's right here. Folks, if I can't see it, I would not be able to do this. Okay, I am not going to always be on live
246 00:46:05 --> 00:46:13 streams, obviously, I've only committed to two a week. But once I get one good move for the week, I'm done, then I'll do something like this for the other day.
247 00:46:14 --> 00:46:25 I don't want to be caught up in doing live streams all the time. Okay. And I don't want to create the opportunity for you to fall into a dependency on it.
248 00:46:26 --> 00:46:32 Because I'm only trying to teach you to do one good set up per week. And I know some of you like oh, well, we need to sit No, we don't need to do anything
249 00:46:32 --> 00:46:40 except for practice. That's what we need to do. Okay, I can do this. And it's not for you to be copying, because that's exactly what some of you are wanting
250 00:46:40 --> 00:46:54 to do. But I can teach this effectively through tweets too. And this is proof of that. Now, the draw down on this, for drawback should be is I won't be able to
251 00:46:54 --> 00:47:06 show like the US 500 CFD. And a lot of you are not able to get the real time data or trade this futures contract es I will my live streams, find a way to
252 00:47:07 --> 00:47:18 toggle back and forth between es 500. And I'm sorry, not es five aren't us 500 And es futures contract interchangeably. Okay. So if I'm looking at something
253 00:47:18 --> 00:47:28 that is on es off, I'll flip over to the US 500 to kind of give you guys that are following along on that. At least the baseline idea where we're we're
254 00:47:29 --> 00:47:40 studying and practicing. Okay, and the same thing for NASDAQ. If we're looking at NASDAQ, or MQ, a futures contract, then I would be showing you the US 100
255 00:47:40 --> 00:47:47 CFD, okay, so are the equivalent, you know, for those that can't trade the futures contract. Alright, so let's get through this because I got a lot of
256 00:47:47 --> 00:47:54 things I want to cover here and give you my opinion on forex. I know some of you just don't care about this market here as much as it is beautiful market trade.
257 00:47:55 --> 00:48:03 But here's the bad side unbalanced, also inefficiency. And over here, let's scrub back here for a moment. Here's a high with a low prior to it and a lower
258 00:48:03 --> 00:48:11 low. So that's a bullish breaker. So it's not on my chart, because I'm doing all this stuff, commentary monitoring it and trying to screen capture and share
259 00:48:11 --> 00:48:22 things on Twitter. It's a lot to manage, and a lot to do. And I don't have the time, I don't have the benefit of time to do all the things and you type out all
260 00:48:22 --> 00:48:31 this stuff here. And you see when I do my recordings, it's it's, I have no time to do anything else. But just that. But what I was watching is down here when it
261 00:48:31 --> 00:48:39 came down to this breaker, and it rallied about this short term. Hi, there. I was trying to prompt you all on Twitter, but I gave the wrong levels. And all
262 00:48:39 --> 00:48:46 you got to do is put those levels that I tweeted in, and you'll see the make absolutely no sense there is no fair value get on those levels. But I was trying
263 00:48:46 --> 00:48:54 to draw your attention to this. So it was a typo during the heat of the moment. It is what it is. But this short term high here, I was looking at this short
264 00:48:54 --> 00:49:02 term high being broken great on this candle here at the same way I'm telling you this one, when it came through it there, that's a dead ringer, it's going on
265 00:49:02 --> 00:49:15 right here. Okay, and you can see that by me tweeting it 3876 By stops in the crosshairs, right there as candles dropping down being right into the order
266 00:49:15 --> 00:49:25 block. This short term high is a shift in market structure. Now I have two what, two shifts in market structure, this short term high here, and this gap stayed
267 00:49:25 --> 00:49:35 open. And we have a shift in market structure above this, this high with this candle right there. And we have this fear that you get left open when this thing
268 00:49:35 --> 00:49:48 starts to run higher. I'm confident that I'm on one side. What I mean by that I'll show you in a second. So then we have a order block here with this drop
269 00:49:48 --> 00:49:57 down the market accumulator and that's it. This little trendline is here on the opening price. And we have a fair value gap. So it for shorter block, trades
270 00:49:57 --> 00:50:09 through it again it's a Retrade then leaves it then comes back down it comes what a reclaimed order block there. Okay. So this is not institutional order for
271 00:50:09 --> 00:50:21 entry drill, institutional or foot entry drill is when you have open range in the form of fair value got in, it drops down one tick below the framework of the
272 00:50:21 --> 00:50:35 high like it does here, look at this candles low, you're looking at that price right there. This candles low is what 3877 in half. This candle here, trades
273 00:50:35 --> 00:50:43 down into what 3877 and a quarter that's institutional or voluntary drill, that's mine, that's my name, don't Google because you're not gonna find anything
274 00:50:43 --> 00:50:53 about it. What's actually happening is it's high frequency trading. It's being entered there. Okay. There's nothing more I can teach you about it except for
275 00:50:53 --> 00:51:03 the fact that if I trust the fact that these ranges are not going to close in, I'm going to use that as another area to build a partial until you build a
276 00:51:03 --> 00:51:15 pyramid position larger. In the event that I do it wrong, I can still be a buyer here and do a pyramid entry. I'm not saying I did it here. But I'm just saying
277 00:51:15 --> 00:51:25 that in other instances where you see me doing my recordings, and I'm recording my management and stop placement and building another entry in to build a
278 00:51:25 --> 00:51:35 position bigger. Sometimes I'm buying what I believe is institutional order flow entry drill, and it goes down and closes in the fair value gap. I'm not
279 00:51:35 --> 00:51:46 intimidated by that, it's okay, it just gives me the opportunity to get in. And then if I have room or leverage, still in my equity in my position, if it goes
280 00:51:46 --> 00:51:56 down to the lower end, I can buy again one more time. So whatever position I put here, I'll duplicate that here. So as I say, it was dropping back down here, I
281 00:51:56 --> 00:52:11 could be a buyer of one contract, say I may have six here, three here to here. And then I'll do one here. But if it dropped down one more time, I'll do one
282 00:52:11 --> 00:52:22 more as the low end of that fair beta, I won't do too, or anything higher than I'll just do the same thing I did on lowest new pyramid entry. And it won't be
283 00:52:22 --> 00:52:30 that big of a deal, because I have all of the equity behind all these positions still in my favor supporting it. So I don't look at it as adding to a losing
284 00:52:30 --> 00:52:40 position, because I'm already stacked with all this equity from here to here and all that to here. And I've already taken a partial here and a partial here. So
285 00:52:40 --> 00:52:47 I'm not going to pyramid on a move like this, which is why you're going to ask me Okay, well, when would you not want a pyramid. As you'll see, I took a
286 00:52:47 --> 00:52:56 partial here, the largest portion of it, and a partial here in the last portion came off here. So just look at these tweets. 3876 by stops are in the
287 00:52:56 --> 00:53:08 crosshairs, that's this 3876 is the high by sign liquidity by stops and buyside liquidity is the same thing interchangeably in the crosshairs means it's likely
288 00:53:08 --> 00:53:18 to go up there. Okay, that's what my language is implying there. And in this tweet, follow the line to it, because right up to that candle right there.
289 00:53:19 --> 00:53:30 What's the time of that candle? Look down here? What's the time on that candle? 1008 10 early, I believe 3876 and a quarter is the next drop in liquidity. I
290 00:53:30 --> 00:53:46 would want to see big move with speed above 3875. When's that occurring right there. And 3875 is right there. Right. Right there.
291 00:53:46 --> 00:53:58 And when we get expansion through, we got it. And we have a fair value gap at old highs. I can't add because of our taken two partials off have taken profits
292 00:53:58 --> 00:54:11 partials twice now with this candle running above here in this candle running above here. And then finally screenshot your one minute es chart here. Were
293 00:54:11 --> 00:54:32 right on that very candle. So at 1036 1036 I got disoriented here I'm sorry. 1036 Candles right there up down at the bottom of the chart right down here.
294 00:54:32 --> 00:54:43 Okay. 1036 on that candle. I'm saying at that moment as it's going through it, you want to screenshot that, because it'll help you trust holding long
295 00:54:43 --> 00:54:52 positions. Even if you get out of your paper trade because you can't handle it. Still screenshot your chart if you have the ability to do it when it happens and
296 00:54:52 --> 00:55:12 goes to your levels that you call for in your analysis and to prove Okay, look over here. There's no executions right? See any any arrows popping up? Okay, now
297 00:55:13 --> 00:55:14 move this over
298 00:55:21 --> 00:55:29 written this fair Vega in this very good favor that you give in the bullish order block reclaimed order what I want to see it stay open the partial running
299 00:55:29 --> 00:55:41 above here, the other partial here and the other partial here. So when it runs above it gives me my 10 contracts in the last two come off at logical places
300 00:55:41 --> 00:55:49 where 3085 That was a lowball gave in a tweet, which doesn't appear here mine sample, but you can see it, it's just too many things that pop up on this chart
301 00:55:49 --> 00:56:05 and show it as I want to see it. And then finally getting up into 3896 and a quarter. Okay, and that, my friends, is no other arrows. Right here, bring them
302 00:56:05 --> 00:56:19 here, bring here, here, here, here, all the levels and look at thing, no trickery. Here, I'll move the chart around. So you can see that it's not
303 00:56:20 --> 00:56:30 photoshopped. And is what it is. They won't, they won't get wider either. They're not drawn errors. I had another person say, Oh, you're drawing the
304 00:56:30 --> 00:56:42 arrow. If it's drawn, they'll be wider and I'll move farther away. They stay in the same position all the time. And drawn arrows don't give you the little tick
305 00:56:42 --> 00:56:49 down here where you actually get on that when you hover over top of it. And it doesn't give you the pop up where you actually executed. So that doesn't work
306 00:56:49 --> 00:56:59 when you consider that now, folks, and that'll be it for today. Hope you found this insightful. I'm sure I'll be talking to you to Twitter, and other YouTube
307 00:56:59 --> 00:57:01 productions. Be safe