ICT YT - 2023-01-04 - ICT Emini SP500 Review - January 03 2023
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-09-26 13:31
Outline
00:00 - This is the area I was watching on.
01:05 - One Hour Chart -.
03:12 - What is a bearish order block?
04:42 - The market trades lower into the 15 minute timeframe.
06:07 - What is the middle of a gap?
07:43 - Looking for a continuation down into the levels I shared on twitter initially.
Transcript
| 1 | 00:00:00 --> 00:00:17 | ICT: Alright, folks, just a quick little video. This is the area I was watching on this morning. And we were waiting for PMI number to come out at 945. And I |
| 2 | 00:00:17 --> 00:00:27 | was expecting it to likely whip up into that and then look for a sell off. And I tweeted about that this morning as a potential scenario, we were waiting for 945 |
| 3 | 00:00:27 --> 00:00:41 | News, not just simply the waiting for 930 opening this old high here, why this one is the highest one in the range from today's opening, looking back, here you |
| 4 | 00:00:41 --> 00:00:54 | go, this is the first when you go to that will be higher than this one. And before we get to this volume imbalance, so we're stuck essentially, inside this |
| 5 | 00:00:54 --> 00:01:06 | range, waiting for it to come out of that. So we can obviously trade inside this range as you watch me today, but it takes a little bit more patience. So we can |
| 6 | 00:01:06 --> 00:01:18 | drop down into a 60 minute chart. Alright, and here is the one hour chart, you can see how we did not get up into that blimey bounce on daily chart, we swept |
| 7 | 00:01:18 --> 00:01:36 | the Buy Sell liquidity twice, once twice, broke down here a gap, salsa liquidity and the 30 minute if you have a gap, so notice we have this big run here. But we |
| 8 | 00:01:36 --> 00:01:51 | dropped down into a 30 minute chart now use the 30 minute chart because you can clearly see that imbalance right there. So failure to get up above this high |
| 9 | 00:01:51 --> 00:01:59 | here and run for that. That's what we're waiting for confirmation one way or the other fields going to run, they're not in a hurry to take a trade. first trading |
| 10 | 00:01:59 --> 00:02:08 | day of the year, everybody's gonna be wanting to get in there and do something right away. Have a favorite you got there. And you can see all those tweets were |
| 11 | 00:02:08 --> 00:02:22 | mentioned before the fact. And then I mentioned that we would draw them likely into this area here. So let's go into a 15 minute. Okay, and very clear, 15 |
| 12 | 00:02:22 --> 00:02:39 | minute timeframe for Vega. Beautiful return into it repricing and then lower down to a nice 30 to 3014 and a half. Five minutes short. arbitrate above again |
| 13 | 00:02:39 --> 00:02:51 | where the buy side is nice round number 3900. There breaks lower this low here we're going to look at that on a one minute chart. Alright, on the one minute |
| 14 | 00:02:51 --> 00:03:04 | chart, you can see we had a run up into where buyside is market breaks down takes out swing low. Now why do I like this low, it may be something like this |
| 15 | 00:03:04 --> 00:03:17 | one not so much. But you could have used this one here where we went below it right on that candle. And then we trade up inside this imbalance there. That's |
| 16 | 00:03:17 --> 00:03:25 | more or less a institutional order flow entry drill, it breaks lower really changes the market structure here and over here. So this is going to be a little |
| 17 | 00:03:25 --> 00:03:38 | bit more of a quality type setup to the fair value gap and here as it traded up into that that's an expectation of lower prices because this is also a breaker |
| 18 | 00:03:39 --> 00:03:50 | bearish ice breaker. Okay, so inside this left down close candle it's returning back up into notice the bodies of the candle the respecting half of that range |
| 19 | 00:03:50 --> 00:03:59 | from the candles high and low. That right there is mean threshold, I mean threshold is half of an order block. Rocket breaks lower creates another |
| 20 | 00:03:59 --> 00:04:11 | imbalance repair of a gap and this candle is high that candles low in that shaded area in here. So I'm gonna take these off as I talk about because it's no |
| 21 | 00:04:11 --> 00:04:22 | longer important. And we have up close candles here. Once we break through it. It's a bearish order block and institutional order for entry drill and a fair |
| 22 | 00:04:22 --> 00:04:35 | value gap. So there's lots of confirmation for wanting to be a short seller here on this candle as we trade up into it and trade lower leaving that open. Okay, |
| 23 | 00:04:35 --> 00:04:49 | leaving this range here, open is what breakaway gap. Okay, the market trades lower into our fear of a gap on the 15 minute timeframe. It consolidate |
| 24 | 00:04:49 --> 00:05:03 | consolidates I go short one more time and accelerates down in to the 30 Minute fair value gap here and as we went Down below a limit order was filled. And then |
| 25 | 00:05:03 --> 00:05:11 | we retrace all the way back up to a perfect return to the 15 Minute, February gap, look at the precision there. Now go back and look over here. Do you see any |
| 26 | 00:05:11 --> 00:05:19 | kind of classic support resistance that would justify that perfect precision right there? No. But the algorithm does and sees the fair value gap that I've |
| 27 | 00:05:19 --> 00:05:29 | outlined on the 15th and timeframe. That's real Support Resistance folks. market trades lower down into the low end of our 30 minute fair Vega beautiful |
| 28 | 00:05:29 --> 00:05:39 | delivery. And I more or less told you all the screenshot on your own chart not to simply take my charts because it's that's a lazy persons approach to doing |
| 29 | 00:05:39 --> 00:05:47 | it, you won't learn that way. You want to get in here and get comfortable marking your charts up, it takes a little bit of effort takes time. And it's |
| 30 | 00:05:47 --> 00:05:55 | important for you to be able to do it. And if you don't do it, if you don't like doing it, I promise you trading won't be a successful endeavor for you. You have |
| 31 | 00:05:55 --> 00:06:06 | to be involved, you have to do it yourself. And it requires a lot of effort on the part of the students. Market hangs around works inside one more time |
| 32 | 00:06:06 --> 00:06:16 | consequent encouragement. It's just the middle of an imbalance. Mean threshold is the middle of a order block. Consequent encroachment is the middle of a gap, |
| 33 | 00:06:17 --> 00:06:27 | okay, or inefficiency, like a fair value gap by Sanibel cellphone efficiency or sell sided violence by sudden efficiency, either or, and just write that down |
| 34 | 00:06:27 --> 00:06:36 | because we'll build on that as we go forward and mentorship. Because halfway up into that, and then clears the buy side, sell sides below here. Attack it went |
| 35 | 00:06:36 --> 00:06:50 | down to a really beautiful Turning Point at 3014 and a half. And then now we've returned back up into that 30 minute for Vega. And now consolidating in around |
| 36 | 00:06:50 --> 00:07:01 | and working the top end of that 30 minute fair Vega. So we'll be looking to see an eventual break out of not that I'm a breakout trader, but we want to see a |
| 37 | 00:07:01 --> 00:07:10 | breakout of that daily range before my interest is really piqued on any sustainable price run for analysis purposes. Otherwise, in layman's terms and |
| 38 | 00:07:11 --> 00:07:23 | easy language. We have to be an intraday scalper until there's a higher timeframe daily narrative at work. So that way, everything we look for is on a |
| 39 | 00:07:23 --> 00:07:36 | small timeframe and not expecting big monster moves. Alright, so we're watching price this morning. first trading day, the year went short on to fair value gaps |
| 40 | 00:07:36 --> 00:07:48 | and one at the top of the orange curve a gap at 3860. Looking for a continuation down into the levels I shared on Twitter. Initially, I thought that we would get |
| 41 | 00:07:48 --> 00:07:59 | 3920 as a run up aggressive run as a Judas swing like a fake rally aggressive during the PMI numbers at 945. Mark was not having that. So that's why I said we |
| 42 | 00:07:59 --> 00:08:12 | have to wait and see what the market does, it failed to run above the 39 05 level. So I waited for the shift and market structure at just below 3872 and |
| 43 | 00:08:12 --> 00:08:21 | three quarters 73. And then it turned back into a favor, you guys can see the entries on the left hand side on that one minute chart, broke down trader to |
| 44 | 00:08:21 --> 00:08:29 | gain another short entry into the fair value gap and also bearish order block. And the third entry is at the top of that orange curve a gap at 3860 as it |
| 45 | 00:08:29 --> 00:08:42 | traded up into that looking for heaviness going down into the 33, nine and a quarter level. So I took one partial leaving two contracts on and I want to get |
| 46 | 00:08:42 --> 00:08:51 | below that 3840 to 50 level. That's where sellside as you can see that nuded on the right hand side on a 30 minute chart. And then why am I using a 30 minute |
| 47 | 00:08:51 --> 00:08:58 | chart, I want to see price remain below that of a gap year on the left hand side. Because above that, then I'll probably have to close the trades on I'm |
| 48 | 00:08:58 --> 00:09:09 | thinking but I want to see it remain Heavy. Heavy means I want to see it go lower and have difficulty rallying higher. And if we trade down below 3840 to 50 |
| 49 | 00:09:09 --> 00:09:19 | I will take one off. But rejecting that 38 I'm sorry, 3920 level I was expecting that daily volume imbalance up there. Right hand side chart, the upper orange |
| 50 | 00:09:19 --> 00:09:33 | level that to me, what's the likelihood of a draw on the news driver? Okay, but I'll take another partial here. And we'll see if it wants to go down and take |
| 51 | 00:09:33 --> 00:09:39 | that. I mean there's low hanging fruit objective now and we'll see if we get that |