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ICT YT - 2022-06-03 - ICT Mentorship 2022 Episode 37.srt

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2022-06-11 09:10
1 00:00:02,550 --> 00:00:13,470 ICT: Alright folks, Welcome back. Hope everyone's doing well. So we are in Episode 37 of the continuum series or the ICT mentorship or YouTube 2022. Here's
2 00:00:13,470 --> 00:00:27,240 our daily chart for the E Mini s&p June contract for 2020. And you can see we have worked inside this fair value gap. This is also a breaker. Okay? breakers
3 00:00:27,240 --> 00:00:39,600 of low, high, lower low, find the high in between extended out in time, the market trades down into that it's also coming down in to fill in this fair Vega.
4 00:00:40,470 --> 00:00:48,810 So we came down, fill that in. And now we're starting to rally next boss that liquidity is this short term high here. And then if we can get some acceleration
5 00:00:48,810 --> 00:01:01,500 on the upside, we have relatively equal highs up here. And that fair value gap. Okay, so for the students here that are looking for a little bit more meat on
6 00:01:01,500 --> 00:01:14,550 the bone for bias, okay. When the market is moved from a low like this and starts to trade higher and creates a swing low, it's easy to assume that it
7 00:01:14,550 --> 00:01:23,700 might want to come back up to this high here. So notice how each day with the exception is one single day here each day was bullish. Okay, so the bias would
8 00:01:23,700 --> 00:01:35,550 be expected to be bullish until we take out this high. It does that here. Then we have a day or two of retracement, which is logical because we created a fair
9 00:01:35,550 --> 00:01:47,580 value gap here. It trades down, fills it in once more, tests it and rallies. So we looking for tomorrow, which is Friday nonfarm payroll is a day I do not
10 00:01:47,580 --> 00:01:59,760 advise anyone to actually try to speculate on now, there's going to be a group out there that have said, I've made money doing a Non Farm Payroll trades. My
11 00:01:59,790 --> 00:02:11,370 reasoning, for telling you not to trade is because you're here to learn how to read price action. So if I say, go out there and study non farm payrolls Friday
12 00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:22,350 price action, which can tend to be very volatile, choppy, or sometimes it becomes a dud, it doesn't do anything. But you don't have the experience, to
13 00:02:22,350 --> 00:02:31,200 weather something that's very volatile, and can be jarring to you. Okay, and if you're out here trying to gamble with live money, which is what none of you
14 00:02:31,200 --> 00:02:41,790 should be doing. If you're in here, learning how to reprice. That's why you're here to learn how to read price. months from now, if you come to the conclusion
15 00:02:41,790 --> 00:02:49,950 that you think you've done well enough on paper, and then demo consistently, if you decide to go into live trading, you've done that on your own, I've done
16 00:02:49,950 --> 00:03:04,620 nothing to instigate that or try to get you to do it. Okay. So bias is going to be derived from this chart here. Because we're likely to run this short term
17 00:03:04,620 --> 00:03:13,650 high. That's what I'm thinking I'm expecting that it could happen overnight. It's there's nothing saying it's going to wait until tomorrow 830 When nonfarm
18 00:03:13,650 --> 00:03:29,370 payroll comes out. But it doesn't run out this high tonight at 830. If we're above the fair value gap, hi here, no words, the candlesticks low here. If we're
19 00:03:29,370 --> 00:03:39,060 above that level, at 830, and we have not taken out that high, I would expect price to try to make an attempt to get to that level, it doesn't need to go
20 00:03:39,060 --> 00:03:49,350 through it. But the bias would be I would expect that to be attempted, okay. Now, does that mean go out and try to trade now for a payroll tomorrow? No, a
21 00:03:49,350 --> 00:03:58,560 lot can happen from the time of this recording, which is a little bit before nine o'clock Eastern time in the United States. So I'm not trying to trade Non
22 00:03:58,560 --> 00:04:10,710 Farm Payroll. Okay, I'm not instigating any interest for you to go out and do it tomorrow. But I do believe that you should study it. Try to determine what side
23 00:04:10,710 --> 00:04:19,590 of liquidity is going to reach for before E 30 minute news release. And when that volatility marketplace, watch and see what it does on like a one and five
24 00:04:19,590 --> 00:04:30,360 minute chart, get a feel for what it's doing. And it's an amazing study for liquidity purposes only. But unfortunately, sometimes these moves can appear
25 00:04:31,200 --> 00:04:45,690 well to the untrained eye, random and then to the initiated here. Sometimes the patterns that I'm teaching you in the logic materialised in the chart, and
26 00:04:45,690 --> 00:04:57,750 sometimes they do pan out to script, but not always. So the reason why I tell everyone to avoid like big days like FOMC and Non Farm Payroll weeks is because
27 00:04:57,750 --> 00:05:02,010 you don't have the experience and you can Get hurt very quickly,
28 00:05:03,090 --> 00:05:11,130 not knowing what you're doing. So I tried to be responsible as a mentor, try to protect you from yourself. Because like I was, when I was younger, it was very
29 00:05:11,130 --> 00:05:22,020 easy for me to fall into a trap, or think I can do something I couldn't. So that way you understand, I try to teach my students to stop trading by the New York
30 00:05:22,020 --> 00:05:30,120 session on Wednesday. So if you had something that was profitable, quote, unquote, up to that point, stop trading for the rest of the week, and then
31 00:05:30,210 --> 00:05:40,830 observe, just study the price action the rest of the week, but don't try to push any buttons. Because you don't have any experience working in these sometimes
32 00:05:40,830 --> 00:05:50,040 very challenging market profiles on the Thursday and Friday of Non Farm Payroll weeks, they can be choppy, they can be sporadic, they can come back against you
33 00:05:50,040 --> 00:05:59,700 when you really don't expect them to, and they lose a lot of their precision. Not all the time, but most of the time, they lose their precision. So I want to
34 00:05:59,700 --> 00:06:07,200 be focusing on those days where I don't have those disadvantages, where everyone else is like, well, I got time to be in front of the charts. So it's gamble and
35 00:06:07,200 --> 00:06:15,090 it's casino time. And and that's that's not the way I do things. And I'm trying to promote the idea of a sober mindset about what it is you're dealing in
36 00:06:15,090 --> 00:06:24,540 respect to measure of risk. So be mindful of these levels here, the two blue lines here. And that red line here, it's a little bit lighter than these you
37 00:06:24,540 --> 00:06:33,270 won't see these on a lower timeframe. But this here is that short term high here. And the two blue lines here are respective to that fair value gap on the
38 00:06:33,270 --> 00:06:49,380 daily chart Alright, hourly chart Emini s&p market trades down to the discount, low the fair value gap, again, these levels here are not drawn because of bases
39 00:06:49,410 --> 00:07:00,480 of support resistance on an hourly chart, okay? These are the same levels that I drew on the daily, and when I change timeframes from daily to hourly, they
40 00:07:00,480 --> 00:07:13,680 transposed to these levels here respectively. Okay. So the market trades down on Wednesday hits the fair value get well, then we consolidate. And then we draw
41 00:07:13,710 --> 00:07:23,040 one more time to here. And we make a mad dash to take out the short term hot here who was shifting market structure that's bullish. We take that the short
42 00:07:23,040 --> 00:07:30,300 term high here and relative equal highs. And now we're gravitating towards what looks like a run on the buy side here. Now it does not need to do that tomorrow.
43 00:07:30,810 --> 00:07:39,660 I could be wrong about that. I'm just saying that I think that this is the next row on liquidity. So study that that's all. Now we did have a small little fear
44 00:07:39,660 --> 00:07:48,480 of a gap in here be mindful that my drop down into that before going up there. That's certainly something to study also. Right on the 15 minute timeframe. You
45 00:07:48,480 --> 00:08:03,660 can see here, this is the mark up for the short term high here on Wednesdays trading, we hit the fairway gap low on the daily chart. BEC hung around in
46 00:08:03,660 --> 00:08:12,450 consolidation rallied up. And I was in here trying to get a feel for what it wanted to do, I was thinking that I could capture a run to take the buy side out
47 00:08:12,450 --> 00:08:21,060 here. That's what I was aiming for initially really early in the session. And this got chopped up a lot in here. And that's fine. I really don't care about
48 00:08:21,060 --> 00:08:30,360 that. But once I realised that wasn't trying to rally, they were gonna try to take it once more below the New York midnight opening, which is this candle
49 00:08:30,360 --> 00:08:42,270 here. I want you to take a look at the way this day formed before I get into any more discussion about it. We opened here, consolidated, rallied up and then
50 00:08:42,270 --> 00:08:53,970 dropped down into the fairway get low on the daily chart and bounced there, rallied up took out the short term high here and then kept on rallying and
51 00:08:53,970 --> 00:09:12,210 enclosed here. This formation of price action is what I dub my ICT power three, where it's accumulating, manipulating, distributing, so it's opening, create the
52 00:09:12,210 --> 00:09:25,890 low of the day, and then rally. Now. If you see this pattern on a daily chart, it's easy to understand, but when you look at the lower timeframes, it's easy to
53 00:09:25,890 --> 00:09:34,590 get lost in all the candlesticks and all the volatility and the movement and the quick fluctuations on these one minute and five minute charts. That's why the
54 00:09:34,590 --> 00:09:44,370 uninitiated will look at and say it's noise. It's not noise, okay, it's doing what it does on the daily chart just being represented on a smaller interval,
55 00:09:45,120 --> 00:09:56,040 like a one or five minute chart. So if you lose the context of like, for instance, the levels here and here, you won't understand that it's dropping down
56 00:09:56,040 --> 00:09:57,150 to the higher timeframe.
57 00:09:58,200 --> 00:10:11,700 Key level which is To better pay cash flow, then the market can rally higher. But once I got on side shorted from in here and covered inside this candle as we
58 00:10:11,700 --> 00:10:22,080 were dipping below the short term low. I forced myself to engage not because I'm breaking rules, not because I'm undisciplined. But because I want to teach you
59 00:10:22,740 --> 00:10:38,490 why I avoid these days because my precision drops precipitously. I don't have the the visibility on these particular days that I do have on others. So if you
60 00:10:38,490 --> 00:10:51,270 have a built in an advantage, why would you go to an area or arena where you have built in disadvantages. If you have advantages by trading on a days that
61 00:10:51,300 --> 00:11:03,810 don't create these types of conditions, you trade in those arenas, and then that timeframe. And you avoid the times where historically, your proven walk forward,
62 00:11:03,840 --> 00:11:13,380 real trading results have been diminished on these particular days. So how many times you have to have your flush, torn open and bleed out before you realise
63 00:11:13,380 --> 00:11:24,000 this is probably a time of the month where I shouldn't be doing anything, or lower my expectations in terms of the measure of precision. So over 30 years,
64 00:11:24,000 --> 00:11:32,700 that's what I've come to trust. And especially as a mentor teaching other people how to read price action, I really press upon my students to start trading on
65 00:11:32,700 --> 00:11:42,990 Wednesday by the New York session. So if you haven't bagged anything, by that time from Sunday's weekly opening till until Wednesday's New York session
66 00:11:43,020 --> 00:11:57,540 begins, don't do any trades, and deal with that desire of wanting to tray but don't do anything that forges discipline, it forges patience, and also teach it
67 00:11:57,540 --> 00:12:03,990 you especially when the weeks are really bad, and it doesn't give you a whole lot of movement, you're going to be rewarded psychologically and emotionally
68 00:12:03,990 --> 00:12:17,430 because you didn't do anything. But on Twitter. I've coached those individual there too. And I said, don't take any trades don't do it. And today they did.
69 00:12:18,030 --> 00:12:29,880 And they regretted it. So some people decide the Listen to me after the pain. But my whole point in doing these types of lessons and lectures, is to try to
70 00:12:29,880 --> 00:12:38,970 spare you from all that you don't have to go through the same things I did painfully to learn the lessons. So listen, okay, it's for your benefit.
71 00:12:40,470 --> 00:12:50,130 Certainly, I went short in here. And I shared that on a vignette, little tiny little video clip, where you can see the business and the executions and such
72 00:12:50,130 --> 00:13:05,430 but the the afternoon, that set up, I want to go into that a little bit. And I didn't buy anything down here, I didn't do any of that turn here, I was actually
73 00:13:05,430 --> 00:13:16,620 shopping for some things that I need for the summer. So it took my attention away from being down here. But once I got back to the screens, and I saw the
74 00:13:16,620 --> 00:13:29,310 market dropping down into this area here, I tweeted, and I asked everyone on Twitter, if they could find the five minute fair value, get the bulk price. And
75 00:13:29,310 --> 00:13:41,430 I gave him a minute or two. And I shared the chart in case they were confused as to what was being discussed. So my expectation was, we were here. And we were
76 00:13:41,430 --> 00:13:49,530 likely to drop into that in the pm session. So in other words, as we're going into launch, and on the other side of the launch, we could have easily traded up
77 00:13:49,530 --> 00:13:57,480 into this area as an upside objective. And then I didn't mention it but you obviously know if we get above that will be the next logical draw on liquidity
78 00:13:57,480 --> 00:14:04,530 of Devadas here, okay. So on Twitter,
79 00:14:04,890 --> 00:14:13,680 if you want to go over to Twitter, and you can see this as my handle a lot of you guys keep asking I've already mentioned it on several videos now. But it's
80 00:14:13,740 --> 00:14:31,500 the at symbol capital I underscore one time a m, underscore, t h e underscore ICT, I am the inner circle trader or I am the ICT so you don't have to follow me
81 00:14:31,500 --> 00:14:38,520 on Twitter. I'm not looking for a lot of followers. I'm not trying to get everybody to follow me. In fact, you can just go to twitter.com backslash and
82 00:14:38,520 --> 00:14:45,540 put this here in without the Add symbol. And you can look at my tweets, they're not protected. So that way you don't have to join that platform. Okay, so I know
83 00:14:45,540 --> 00:14:55,200 there's a lot of people that simply will not join because all the politics associated with it, I get it, but we're having fun. And hopefully, you guys can
84 00:14:55,200 --> 00:15:04,710 check it out and join the fun. If not, then that's cool, but it's a little bit more time for friendly, and easier to be alerted on like the Community tab on my
85 00:15:04,710 --> 00:15:14,460 YouTube channel. I'm not really sure why sometimes people don't get notifications. And sometimes they do. I don't know. So when you guys contact me
86 00:15:14,460 --> 00:15:22,200 or send me messages through trading view or whatever, asking me there's things I don't know, okay, I just put videos up for posts. And if you get them, you get
87 00:15:22,200 --> 00:15:29,460 them. If you don't, you have to go to the actual community posts and see it. But Twitter obviously has always been my playground. I've enjoyed it in the past.
88 00:15:29,490 --> 00:15:42,000 And you can see here the time 11:37am This is local time, Eastern Time. And June 2, I asked everyone on E Mini s&p five minute chart locate the fair value gap
89 00:15:42,000 --> 00:15:51,270 above market price. That's this one here. Okay, so I gave a little bit of time for folks to look for it themselves. And then I gave this here. Okay, so the
90 00:15:51,270 --> 00:16:03,480 Mark was trading right there. And draw on liquidity was here. Okay. So, obviously, you can see here, we did shortly after that it was bagged and tagged,
91 00:16:04,080 --> 00:16:13,500 was it was trading right up into that level there. So the question is going to be, what's the purpose of that? What's the whole reason for me to bring him up?
92 00:16:14,070 --> 00:16:26,010 That's not a treat ICT that's not a button being pushed. That's not a, an entry, a stop and a target. Right? I'm teaching you by being your spotter. Sometimes
93 00:16:26,010 --> 00:16:36,990 I'll see things and I'll say, Look, this, we're study that. For clarity, folks, that is not a trade signal. I'm not telling you to buy or sell anything. I'm
94 00:16:36,990 --> 00:16:46,680 trying to inspire you to look at price with the things I'm teaching you real time at that moment, before it actually develops and delivers in price before
95 00:16:46,680 --> 00:16:54,870 your charts actually show it. I'm taking your attention to the right side of the marketplace. And pointing to a level I want you to study where we are at that
96 00:16:54,870 --> 00:17:03,510 time, hit market price, which is in this example here. And then study how it gets to that level, I'm sometimes going to be wrong, folks. Okay, admittedly,
97 00:17:04,170 --> 00:17:14,730 I'm going to do it wrong. Okay, but I want you to study from when I say take notice of something in studying, see if it wants to deliver that by a specific
98 00:17:14,730 --> 00:17:28,410 time. Okay. I've noticed since I'll comment on something on Twitter, it's almost like immediately runs to it. So that's also an interesting thing for me, and I'm
99 00:17:28,410 --> 00:17:39,480 not sure what to make of that. But I know once I say something, it's really quick to be Johnny on the spot and get to where I'm pointing to. So I'll leave
100 00:17:39,480 --> 00:17:50,340 that up for you to decide if it's anything noteworthy behind it. Alright, so this is a two minute chart. And before I even get into this, this is not a trade
101 00:17:50,340 --> 00:17:59,520 entry. And this is not a trade exit. Okay, if you look at the shape of these arrows, okay. I'm not trying to defraud you. I'm not trying to fake something,
102 00:17:59,550 --> 00:18:08,160 I'm not trying to pretend that I took this trade, okay? did not do it. I'm just showing you graphically, this is how you would have your chart. So if you want
103 00:18:08,160 --> 00:18:16,470 to journal things after the fact, what you want to do is you have your chart set up like this, and you have an order block that down close candle prior to this
104 00:18:16,470 --> 00:18:29,700 move up here, and then we draw after consolidation into the favourite I got right there. Right, here's where I tweeted, look at this fair Vega. So price was
105 00:18:29,700 --> 00:18:34,110 here. That was the moment of the tweet, and then up to here it delivers.
106 00:18:34,560 --> 00:18:44,370 So the pattern is this. Okay? So when you have that you go back into your charts, you mark it up like this. And then over here, you want to put down any
107 00:18:44,370 --> 00:18:53,880 observations, how long did it take, before this move started to be delivered to the upside, after it went into effect, right, you get? Well, this each one of
108 00:18:53,880 --> 00:19:05,160 these candles is two minutes, right? So it went into it here, here. So that's four minutes, then six minutes, and then starts delivering six minutes after
109 00:19:05,160 --> 00:19:22,260 hitting it. And that took 123456789 roughly 20 minutes to deliver that expectation and price. So it might from a discount. Houses discount. We moved
110 00:19:22,260 --> 00:19:34,860 from the low to here. Think about what's been shown. We are above the New York mainly opening price. So the market dropped down to a discount creating the low
111 00:19:34,860 --> 00:19:48,900 today. Now we've above this opening price. And we're going into lunch. Here is the New York session lunch hour. So we have time before 12 o'clock for this to
112 00:19:48,960 --> 00:19:55,740 potentially deliver but I was given a time see if we have lunch go there and in the pm session which will be on the other side of lunch around one o'clock to
113 00:19:55,740 --> 00:20:05,130 130 and then start to deliver that but like I was mentioning moments ago Lately when I post or talk about anything, it's like, it wants to get there right away.
114 00:20:05,760 --> 00:20:16,230 So again, make of it what you want. But after you have your annotations on your chart, you want to basically put down any observation that you noticed, but you
115 00:20:16,230 --> 00:20:26,130 want to phrase it in such a way like you saw this in advance. So what happens is, is you're tricking your subconscious into believing that this is a
116 00:20:26,760 --> 00:20:36,030 experience that you really had. And it's like self, it's called self talk, okay? You're reassuring and reinforcing something that would be a positive thing for
117 00:20:36,030 --> 00:20:44,490 you. And while you may not have seen that trade, and you didn't have the experience that I was showing on Twitter today, before it happened, you borrow
118 00:20:44,490 --> 00:20:53,850 that experience for the study. But in your journaling, your chart would look like this, okay. And then you would fill in these little areas, where it where
119 00:20:53,850 --> 00:21:02,880 it would draw on your observations, the things that you saw come to fruition and never try to put anything negative in Don't say, I wish I would have solved this
120 00:21:02,880 --> 00:21:14,730 or I was foolish, and I didn't see this unfold, and I missed another trade or I'm never gonna get this This is frustrating. These journal entries are for you
121 00:21:15,090 --> 00:21:25,950 to reflect upon at a later time. And you want them to be positive, you want to basically cheerlead yourself in your journaling. And keep things very fact
122 00:21:25,950 --> 00:21:36,000 oriented. Everything is a matter of fact. And you want to phrase it like you saw it beforehand. And over time, how much time I don't know. But when you do this
123 00:21:36,030 --> 00:21:46,560 for weeks and months, maybe half a year or so, certainly by the first year of doing it, you will have tricked your brain into having all of this pseudo
124 00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:55,800 experience the benefit of this, because you're logging the chart and making it look like this and retaining and then referring back to them each weekend,
125 00:21:56,010 --> 00:22:03,630 looking at the previous week, looking at the previous month and just scrolling through your charts and reading your annotations. Yes, it's laborious, yes, it
126 00:22:03,630 --> 00:22:14,820 takes time. Yes, it is boring in the beginning. But when you start learning to see these things form live, then you'll understand the benefit of having done
127 00:22:14,820 --> 00:22:24,570 it. Because this is how you get it. Nothing else gives it to you, watching my videos will not do it for you. You have to be in here doing this part. If you
128 00:22:24,570 --> 00:22:36,090 fail under my tutelage, it's because you don't do this. Okay? This is where everybody that fails, starts their tail spin into failure. They don't want to do
129 00:22:36,090 --> 00:22:42,750 this stuff, they like I ain't doing that I ain't got time for that. Well, then you don't want to succeed, because I'm telling you, there's no shortcut around
130 00:22:42,750 --> 00:22:55,110 it, you will do this or you will fail, period, end of story. Have a nice day. Now notice what we have here, we have a short term low here during the New York
131 00:22:55,110 --> 00:23:09,870 lunch hour, we're consolidating the market drops back down, and takes up that short term low. We have unfinished business about the old high here. This is a
132 00:23:09,870 --> 00:23:22,920 stop run here. And it is slowly jirsa. It takes that old hire, the only setup I liked was obviously the short and the reentry. In addition to the short I did
133 00:23:22,920 --> 00:23:28,860 and you can see the on the vignette that I posted on Twitter. So I'm not going to bog the video down here with that it's
134 00:23:28,860 --> 00:23:40,740 already been public, the afternoon session or after the low was formed. Notice there's no model entry for what I've taught you so far. But we have a nice fair
135 00:23:40,740 --> 00:23:47,670 value gap with the continuation to the upside with a fair value gap. I was pointing out real time before it happened. So this would be the only other setup
136 00:23:47,670 --> 00:23:54,990 which I did not take as I didn't take this demo account. I didn't demonstrate it. But I did give you the launch blow for real time in Twitter before it
137 00:23:54,990 --> 00:24:02,640 unfolded. So this is the framework that you would have in your journal. And everything I mentioned in this lecture tonight. Hopefully it was insightful to
138 00:24:02,640 --> 00:24:09,990 you and helpful. And I will touch base with you again next Tuesday, Lord willing, until I'll talk to you next time. Be safe