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Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2022-05-27 12:05
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2 |1 |00:01:00,450 ~-~-> 00:01:12,330 |ICT: I don't know how to see if you can hear or see my screen. But if you could go over to Twitter help me out here because I can't tell if you can see me and I
3 |2 |00:01:12,330 ~-~-> 00:01:13,530 |can't pull it up on my end
4 |3 |00:01:22,650 ~-~-> 00:01:24,300 |these are my streaming right now
5 |4 |00:01:43,500 ~-~-> 00:01:58,020 |thank you Tom, can you hear me can you see the full screen? I guess that's really what I need to see. But can you see my entire screen if I do that because
6 |5 |00:01:58,020 ~-~-> 00:01:59,250 |I can't pull it up on my side
7 |6 |00:02:23,970 ~-~-> 00:02:28,500 |is the full screen like you can see the entire price axis and the time axis Correct?
8 |7 |00:02:42,540 ~-~-> 00:02:52,380 |Awesome, thank you. Thank Thank you very much for your patience and help. Alright, so I'm gonna
9 |8 |00:02:57,600 ~-~-> 00:03:11,520 |to start paying attention here and we'll see what we see. I like the idea of the Sunday got being revisited so far, but not rushing anything. No news this
10 |9 |00:03:11,520 ~-~-> 00:03:25,800 |morning. So I'm more interested in getting acclimated to the live streaming. That way it can be a little bit easier for me to navigate.
11 |10 |00:03:58,320 ~-~-> 00:04:11,010 |There's a gap opening on Sunday that I was referring to in case you didn't see the tweet I posted on Twitter. Usually not always, usually. If there's a gap
12 |11 |00:04:11,010 ~-~-> 00:04:20,850 |opening on Sunday, likes to go down there and revisited doesn't necessarily have to fill it entirely. But I'd like to see it at least show a willingness to get
13 |12 |00:04:20,850 ~-~-> 00:04:32,130 |down there. The interesting thing about what I'm looking for is should it trade down there? Does it react strongly like our support idea like does it send price
14 |13 |00:04:32,400 ~-~-> 00:04:50,700 |vertical after that? Because if that's the case, we will be looking for levels like that, like in tomorrow or later in the week is a little too much. For right
15 |14 |00:04:50,700 ~-~-> 00:04:51,960 |now in terms of forecasting
16 |15 |00:05:02,490 ~-~-> 00:05:08,520 |So we're going to do is study a little bit about how price is reacting this morning without any news
17 |16 |00:05:23,700 ~-~-> 00:05:38,010 |if you're commenting to me on Twitter or on the chat I can't see you because I'm more interested in making sure I'm learning how to make sure this like chain
18 |17 |00:05:38,010 ~-~-> 00:05:38,520 |works
19 |18 |00:05:43,800 ~-~-> 00:05:54,330 |alright small little gap in here not something that fits the model yet but I'm I'm noting it we have relatively equal lows here but you just clear that out
20 |19 |00:06:19,230 ~-~-> 00:06:20,010 |dabbled
21 |20 |00:06:24,990 ~-~-> 00:06:36,720 |last night you can see us Friday's high here we sell Sidon here
22 |21 |00:06:53,040 ~-~-> 00:07:01,230 |2020 To bury everything ICG would never do Yeah, we're gonna see about that
23 |22 |00:07:18,330 ~-~-> 00:07:20,250 |so there's a little bit of by side
24 |23 |00:07:27,870 ~-~-> 00:07:38,520 |up here, this is what I was watching to see if you're going to try to make an attempt to sweep into that again. And then maybe run for the gap on Sunday. That
25 |24 |00:07:38,520 ~-~-> 00:07:49,200 |was one of the things I had in mind this morning, but it hasn't shown any kind of willingness to want to do that. It remains heavy so sell side Rest Have a
26 |25 |00:07:49,200 ~-~-> 00:08:04,890 |look here into this area here just cycling through lower timeframes.
27 |26 |00:08:16,440 ~-~-> 00:08:29,790 |On days when it does not have high impact news you're going to want to make sure that you resign yourself to just looking for the 930 opening volatility that
28 |27 |00:08:29,790 ~-~-> 00:08:31,560 |gives you any framework
29 |28 |00:08:46,680 ~-~-> 00:09:02,700 |when there are when there is rather high impact news we can use 830 to set up a framework that would likely give us some foresight into how the 930 in the
30 |29 |00:09:02,700 ~-~-> 00:09:05,340 |morning volatility may service.
31 |30 |00:09:22,230 ~-~-> 00:09:36,900 |So one of the things that I want you to observe here is number one, we've had Friday's highs taken out here. We swept above it broke down small little gap in
32 |31 |00:09:36,900 ~-~-> 00:09:48,960 |here. Okay, notice the time of day here. It's 220 in the morning, New York local time. Again, if you don't have your time set in New York, it's going to be very
33 |32 |00:09:48,960 ~-~-> 00:10:02,130 |confusing for you. But as swing low, broken, fair value got traded back up to Friday's high and here is the gap. So here's the money I'm working in London it
34 |33 |00:10:02,130 ~-~-> 00:10:12,960 |breaks down small little Judas swing here at four o'clock in the morning, the South Side wrestling below here and inside this little bit of imbalance but it
35 |34 |00:10:12,960 ~-~-> 00:10:26,130 |my thought process is yes it went down into here. But this is in my opinion, the more significant price factor as of I tweeted about it this morning now some of
36 |35 |00:10:26,130 ~-~-> 00:10:36,060 |you may be thinking, Okay, why aren't you going short because I don't have a setup that will give me framework to provide the risk model right now it's
37 |36 |00:10:36,060 ~-~-> 00:10:47,550 |important for you to just see does it draw to areas that make the most sense not every single day are you going to be pushing a button especially right now
38 |37 |00:10:47,580 ~-~-> 00:10:54,060 |you're learning you're trying to read price action you're not trying to get in there and and push a button trying to make money some of you are in a hurry to
39 |38 |00:10:54,060 ~-~-> 00:10:58,020 |do that. And you're really cheating yourself in the learning process
40 |39 |00:11:11,070 ~-~-> 00:11:27,060 |watch this low here sometimes price will just that short of a short term low and like a long candle like this, it can come back up and just touch it and roll
41 |40 |00:11:27,060 ~-~-> 00:11:30,090 |forward and get into liquidity you're looking for
42 |41 |00:11:35,340 ~-~-> 00:11:37,080 |so far, it's one sided this morning.
43 |42 |00:11:59,159 ~-~-> 00:12:02,279 |Not trying to take any trades you're observing folks
44 |43 |00:12:07,980 ~-~-> 00:12:10,800 |some of your already probably got 10 contracts
45 |44 |00:12:10,799 ~-~-> 00:12:13,229 |you're trying to get rich ICTs going on
46 |45 |00:12:14,429 ~-~-> 00:12:15,839 |is on short is getting here.
47 |46 |00:12:44,100 ~-~-> 00:12:52,170 |Alright, retail will see this right here as support broken turn resistance. If it's going to come up back this far. I'm thinking watch this area here.
48 |47 |00:13:00,269 ~-~-> 00:13:08,639 |does not need to fill or even return back to Sunday's gap. That's this what I'm watching this morning, I'm having you consider the same thing. Because there's
49 |48 |00:13:08,639 ~-~-> 00:13:22,199 |no real news this morning. We're not trying to play any volatility. Just tape reading. We have high impact news tomorrow. If my memory is correct, I think
50 |49 |00:13:22,199 ~-~-> 00:13:29,759 |it's PMI numbers and housing. But don't quote me on it. I know I've ever seen it. But it may not be tomorrow, maybe another day.
51 |50 |00:13:36,120 ~-~-> 00:13:46,860 |So the question you might be asking or thinking is, do I just simply not trade on days where there does show a high impact news event or medium impact news
52 |51 |00:13:46,860 ~-~-> 00:13:58,170 |event? economic calendar? And what economic calendar Am I using, you can use just about any reputable economic calendar, there's not really any specific one
53 |52 |00:13:58,170 ~-~-> 00:14:06,210 |that's going to be better than the other in my opinion. It's just a matter how they deliver the like I'm, I'm obsessive. So I like things a certain way. And
54 |53 |00:14:06,240 ~-~-> 00:14:14,070 |there are some calendars that give the same data and time for events being released. But because the way they present it just doesn't seem like right now
55 |54 |00:14:14,070 ~-~-> 00:14:21,900 |some of you who are hating the fact that my charts updated, like this color now, go back to the black and green and the white background. I would love to I would
56 |55 |00:14:21,900 ~-~-> 00:14:31,110 |love to do that. But my eyes are failing. And I have to do what I can to protect them. So this is more comfortable for me to look at. So please don't send me any
57 |56 |00:14:31,110 ~-~-> 00:14:44,520 |posts in my comment section on my videos, or on my Twitter asking me to go back to that because I can't. So we went back up into our fair value get here and you
58 |57 |00:14:44,520 ~-~-> 00:14:53,580 |want to study and see does it respect that because if it goes through it, then we're gonna be looking for a deeper run to get to the buy side here. Again,
59 |58 |00:14:53,610 ~-~-> 00:15:00,690 |resist the temptation to want to push the button and get in. You're learning how to do this. Okay, you're not learning how to gamble. while you're trying to get
60 |59 |00:15:00,690 ~-~-> 00:15:09,930 |in here and push a button and see what happens, you're studying price. Watching see what it does? Does it show signatures that repeat? Is there any logic to the
61 |60 |00:15:09,930 ~-~-> 00:15:19,500 |markets morning? Is it trying to get somewhere in an obvious manner? So far, the only thing it's done is returned back to the Fahrenheit gap.
62 |61 |00:15:26,639 ~-~-> 00:15:38,099 |Now, if you want to, like I guess, how would you study this, like I said, like a walk forward, not a back testing was a walk forward study from the point of
63 |62 |00:15:38,099 ~-~-> 00:15:48,599 |which it touched the fear Vega here, note the time that it did it. And how long does it take, if at all, because it could just run right over top the fear of a
64 |63 |00:15:48,599 ~-~-> 00:15:58,259 |gap and run into bias that I have here. But I want you to think about how much time it takes for price to move away from either above and invalidate that fear
65 |64 |00:15:58,259 ~-~-> 00:16:01,769 |that you got, or move away from it and run into something that
66 |65 |00:16:07,500 ~-~-> 00:16:14,670 |looks a little too overzealous in here. I've never seen it come off that and go lower
67 |66 |00:16:22,740 ~-~-> 00:16:36,000 |traders are waking up and seeing how equities are firmer from last week. So that kind of builds in the idea that hey, maybe it's time to buy and we're going to
68 |67 |00:16:36,000 ~-~-> 00:16:44,070 |utilize that sentiment this morning no real economic data the key off of but.
69 |68 |00:17:04,980 ~-~-> 00:17:06,510 |complete closure, the fair bank app.
70 |69 |00:17:19,619 ~-~-> 00:17:29,339 |Now on days like this with no news, okay, these are the types of things that some of you are just, you don't want to be met with this type of data, but you
71 |70 |00:17:29,339 ~-~-> 00:17:39,179 |have to see it. You have a day with no economic news. You have no drivers for the calendar saying that high impact or medium impact news events should
72 |71 |00:17:39,179 ~-~-> 00:17:47,579 |transpire. I'm teaching you to be mindful the Sunday gap opening that usually acts like a magnet that draws price doesn't necessarily mean it's gonna go there
73 |72 |00:17:47,579 ~-~-> 00:17:56,609 |immediately on Sundays trading, or Monday's trading. Sometimes it'll be revisited later in the week. There isn't really a rule that says it has to come
74 |73 |00:17:56,609 ~-~-> 00:18:08,339 |back by specific time. But right now looking at this I want you to study how much time it's spending in this fair value gap. And let's assume for a moment
75 |74 |00:18:08,339 ~-~-> 00:18:23,429 |that you did take that fear of a gap as a short for Sunday's get the horse drawn to now do you feel comfortable on a day where there's no economic data? Nothing
76 |75 |00:18:23,429 ~-~-> 00:18:36,599 |really, that's setting up a volatility that would be one sided there's no there's no strong one side in this for the market to push other than just to
77 |76 |00:18:36,599 ~-~-> 00:18:45,599 |keep pushing the idea to narrative that it's bullish. So we're above the fair value got you wouldn't have to take that stop loss right there. Look for the buy
78 |77 |00:18:45,599 ~-~-> 00:18:49,229 |side above these highs right in here now.
79 |78 |00:18:58,710 ~-~-> 00:19:10,980 |Knowing what you're looking for, keeps you out of trades that will be marginal and knowing what you're looking for when there's an economic calendar behind you
80 |79 |00:19:10,980 ~-~-> 00:20:02,280 |with volatility sets the stage for manipulation. One of the hardest lessons for me to beat into students minds. I found is teaching them how to know when not to
81 |80 |00:20:02,280 ~-~-> 00:20:15,900 |do something. That was the lessons I wish I would have learned early on in early 90s. There's many ways to make money, lots of ways to make money, but there are
82 |81 |00:20:16,170 ~-~-> 00:20:26,400 |just as much if not more ways to lose it. And if you understand the conditions in the marketplace that will invite those environments or circumstances in your
83 |82 |00:20:26,400 ~-~-> 00:20:35,430 |trading. In other words, how do you differentiate what day to trade? Well, number one, the economic calendar, I'm looking for a medium impact or high
84 |83 |00:20:35,430 ~-~-> 00:20:47,010 |impact news event around 830 Or maybe at 10 o'clock, something to the effect? Because I know they're going to utilize that for manipulation. So if they have
85 |84 |00:20:47,670 ~-~-> 00:20:57,930 |no real economic news being released that day, generally not all the time. But generally, you're going to have a lackluster trading session. So that means is
86 |85 |00:20:57,930 ~-~-> 00:21:08,610 |that a day where you would put in your typical risk? If you're gonna take a trade? Or would you elevate your risk and take larger trades? No. First thing
87 |86 |00:21:08,610 ~-~-> 00:21:16,980 |would be justifying whether or not you should be taking any action at all. That means demanding the price action be absolutely pristine, seeing exactly what
88 |87 |00:21:16,980 ~-~-> 00:21:30,810 |you're looking for a very clear level to react to. I was looking for somebody's got, I want to see that be drawn to. We got down below short term love here. But
89 |88 |00:21:30,810 ~-~-> 00:21:45,120 |right from the opening, it's just more or less than a drop down to take sellside out now buyside is the next likely candidate for run. These highs over here look
90 |89 |00:21:45,120 ~-~-> 00:21:57,600 |a little suspect as well. So just be mindful that. And there's some I guarantee I don't see it, but I know there's some trolls in here. Think Oh, yeah, yeah,
91 |90 |00:21:58,020 ~-~-> 00:22:06,030 |it's going up or down. Anybody can do that. Now I'm teaching you how to read how to stay out of the marketplace. When is it a good time to be trading? When is it
92 |91 |00:22:07,080 ~-~-> 00:22:19,770 |5050? When is it not likely to present something that's high probability? And I've already executed overnight. So I'm already for my liking. And you're
93 |92 |00:22:19,770 ~-~-> 00:22:28,440 |probably asking, Well, why didn't you wait for it to go down to Sunday gap opening if you if you sold short up here, watch take profit early and not run
94 |93 |00:22:28,440 ~-~-> 00:22:37,800 |this on these gap. Because that's one of the things that I'm kind of pushing to you now. There is no high impact news today. There's no impact on medium or high
95 |94 |00:22:37,800 ~-~-> 00:22:50,220 |end. So I'm going to take the easy low hanging fruit if I'm in a position getting shored up here. There's sell side below here, here and here. But it is
96 |95 |00:22:50,220 ~-~-> 00:23:00,390 |likely to do what look what this chart showing right now. Look at all the data that I have right now. Is it bullish? Is it bearish? Or is it consolidating?
97 |96 |00:23:04,650 ~-~-> 00:23:18,180 |It's consolidating, it's sideways. We're firmer. We're higher than we were obviously going Friday. And it's building in a bit trying to draw price higher.
98 |97 |00:23:18,390 ~-~-> 00:23:27,390 |It's squeezing on shorts. A lot of people are hoping this thing goes to zero. It's not gonna zero folks, but I'm just saying that they're they've been
99 |98 |00:23:27,390 ~-~-> 00:23:38,460 |extremely bearish because they've watched Friday go down. So anyone that's been short prior to Friday, their trail stop losses are on the menu.
100 |99 |00:24:04,440 ~-~-> 00:24:19,620 |Just taking a look at the dollar index to get that short term low. Looks like we could go a little bit lower. On dollar there's a small 15 minute period a gap
101 |100 |00:24:19,620 ~-~-> 00:24:31,200 |$1. I'd like to see it go through that. The downside is relatively equal lows. On today's lows, I want to see a pantry that does that that gives us lift for
102 |101 |00:24:32,280 ~-~-> 00:24:45,390 |the index futures to go higher. So dollar lower opens the gates for higher prices on index futures because that would be a risk on scenario. Watch that
103 |102 |00:24:45,390 ~-~-> 00:24:46,440 |fair value gap in here.
104 |103 |00:25:00,000 ~-~-> 00:25:04,560 |The bond markets not doing anything today quiet till?
105 |104 |00:26:48,869 ~-~-> 00:26:57,269 |Now assume you just open your computer out, you haven't watched any this price action you haven't referred anything you're sitting down in front of your
106 |105 |00:26:57,269 ~-~-> 00:27:09,119 |computer, you're looking at the market and you're looking at this particular market ask yourself Is there anything that stands out is obvious? Is there
107 |106 |00:27:09,119 ~-~-> 00:27:20,699 |anything that would set up the stage as a one sided move either higher or lower because we have the conditions here we have clean highs. Only thing going for it
108 |107 |00:27:20,729 ~-~-> 00:27:30,899 |is we already took out Friday's high and we already broke down from this dealing range high this dealing range low we're still inside that range. With all this
109 |108 |00:27:30,899 ~-~-> 00:27:41,759 |price action nothing has broken to the upside or downside we're still inside the dealing range that was set by overnight London trading here this low and this
110 |109 |00:27:41,759 ~-~-> 00:27:50,369 |high and the question is going to be what do you mean by dealing range okay dealing ranges where market structure has provided a means for a trading
111 |110 |00:27:50,369 ~-~-> 00:28:04,619 |opportunity and has moved outside the boundaries which would have been this low and Friday's high. So ran above Friday's high, it broke intraday low here there
112 |111 |00:28:05,759 ~-~-> 00:28:16,019 |was the fair value gap now because we took liquidity here in here so it could come back up and revisit that if it does that and see if it has any kind of
113 |112 |00:28:16,319 ~-~-> 00:28:25,619 |sensitivity there to go then down into some of these gaps. But back when I was saying we're inside dealing range between the high here that was piercing
114 |113 |00:28:25,649 ~-~-> 00:28:37,889 |Friday's high. So Friday's High was taken out here. It broke down and gave a logical setup as I mentioned earlier in the stream sellside you can see again, I
115 |114 |00:28:37,889 ~-~-> 00:28:47,009 |operated and engaged with that logic. Now we have this low here so the significant sell side is here but below that where would it want to reach to if
116 |115 |00:28:47,009 ~-~-> 00:29:00,239 |it goes there into Sunday's gap opening scrubs so there's some these gap opening. So sitting down in front of the computer, the first thing I'm looking
117 |116 |00:29:00,239 ~-~-> 00:29:12,479 |for is how did we trade overnight while we took Friday's look like assume I didn't do anything in London I'm looking at how it went above Friday's high, it
118 |117 |00:29:12,479 ~-~-> 00:29:27,719 |broke down. So we have built in we have the advantage of Fridays taken by side to lower to high on Fridays taken out. We broke down internally on the intraday
119 |118 |00:29:29,039 ~-~-> 00:29:43,109 |we rallied once here didn't get back above Friday's high, rallied here we failed. Failed, they went lower. Then we ran again swept one two highs on by
120 |119 |00:29:43,109 ~-~-> 00:29:54,899 |side wasn't able to get the boss on liquidity here. We have sell side boy this low and this low. So if it goes for the sell side, doesn't it make sense that we
121 |120 |00:29:54,899 ~-~-> 00:30:08,699 |want to reach into Sunday's gap now with that law Check, which is in your opinion, and I'm gonna have to see this on Twitter. Just respond to me send me a
122 |121 |00:30:08,699 ~-~-> 00:30:21,089 |tweet with a number one right now it's at one minute to 10 to 959 Is it more likely to take the sell side out or the buy side right now
123 |122 |00:30:34,320 ~-~-> 00:30:45,420 |some of you are already pushing the button themselves. Don't do that you're cheating yourself. I'm not gonna be doing cryptic messages to try to get you
124 |123 |00:30:45,420 ~-~-> 00:30:56,250 |signals. I'm teaching you how to read price. I'll push some buttons on a demo in front of you. But it's got to be the right setup and framework. I'll teach you
125 |124 |00:30:56,250 ~-~-> 00:30:58,800 |how to master pseudo risk and as well.
126 |125 |00:31:15,359 ~-~-> 00:31:24,629 |Think about what the public is thinking. They woke up this morning. They're looking at the equities opening. It's up it's up from Friday's close. It's gone
127 |126 |00:31:24,629 ~-~-> 00:31:33,269 |up a little bit. It's you know, governments go so they're thinking what it's going higher they want to do what they think is going higher. What are they
128 |127 |00:31:33,269 ~-~-> 00:31:41,969 |going to be doing? They're going to be wanting to buy so if there's going to place buy orders into the marketplace where are they going to put their stop
129 |128 |00:31:41,969 ~-~-> 00:31:56,219 |losses to protect their long positions underneath recent lows right that would be here and here in blue the logic is the markets want to sometimes most of the
130 |129 |00:31:56,219 ~-~-> 00:31:59,459 |time want to fill in those Sunday gaps.
131 |130 |00:32:56,190 ~-~-> 00:33:17,580 |See that look at the gap. Discount Well, no words it's the lower end that frames the the gap with this candles high 3934 50. I told you to watch the fair value
132 |131 |00:33:17,580 ~-~-> 00:33:31,380 |gap what what's the high on that candle 3934 50 You cannot beat perfect where the trade to sell side. So if it's going to take that we're going to go into
133 |132 |00:33:31,560 ~-~-> 00:33:45,540 |Sunday's gap. So now you want to study does it go into the entire closure of the gap which would be right there that high. So 39 04 Even, you want to have that
134 |133 |00:33:45,540 ~-~-> 00:33:49,140 |level when your chart will take the shaded part out.
135 |134 |00:33:52,440 ~-~-> 00:34:00,600 |Let's drop a line on it Okay, so it needs to look like that
136 |135 |00:34:13,139 ~-~-> 00:34:23,939 |now for your notes. If we trade below a Sunday gap and trade back up to it, sometimes it'll act as resistance. So you can look at that and study that going
137 |136 |00:34:23,939 ~-~-> 00:34:30,119 |into the afternoon session which I won't be with you for we're going to close the stream here in about five minutes or so.
138 |137 |00:34:41,159 ~-~-> 00:34:49,499 |So when you're watching price and studying, going through your charts, looking at the things I'm teaching you, this is what you're doing. This is tape reading,
139 |138 |00:34:49,799 ~-~-> 00:34:59,309 |you're observing this is where all of you since January when I first started doing this mentorship for free on YouTube. This is all you should be doing. If
140 |139 |00:34:59,309 ~-~-> 00:35:09,299 |not this You should be obviously spending your time on the weekends back testing and studying old data, not doing it with live data. But observing, once you've
141 |140 |00:35:09,299 ~-~-> 00:35:16,889 |done a significant portion, because I know a lot of you have already started in January, with the things I've taught. So you're going through your charts, and
142 |141 |00:35:16,889 ~-~-> 00:35:23,969 |you've seen lots of examples of it. So now what you're doing is the next stage is to do what we're doing here. So if you're new, if you just started following
143 |142 |00:35:23,969 ~-~-> 00:35:36,359 |me, don't do this part. So I'm not trying to confuse anyone. Obviously, I'm working forward with the people that have already started with me in January of
144 |143 |00:35:36,359 ~-~-> 00:35:49,319 |2022. At this point, right about now, because you should have done enough back testing and convinced yourself that this pattern exists is there now going into
145 |144 |00:35:49,319 ~-~-> 00:36:01,199 |the live markets and studying forward? Notice that there's no paper trade entry, there's no demo entry, there's no pursuit to get into a live trade, you're going
146 |145 |00:36:01,199 ~-~-> 00:36:11,519 |through the motions of looking at the circumstances that lead to high probability? Does the market give you insights based on economic calendar,
147 |146 |00:36:11,879 ~-~-> 00:36:21,209 |there's going to be volatility in the marketplace, that's going to be in the form of either a medium impact or a high impact news driver, some kind of report
148 |147 |00:36:21,239 ~-~-> 00:36:34,799 |some kind of data point that comes out. Since there's an absence of that this morning, we're resigning ourselves to relying solely on price action. So So
149 |148 |00:36:34,859 ~-~-> 00:36:44,279 |solely on price action, it needs to be perfect, it needs to be a perfect one sided setup. Whereas right now, we had both sides offering buy side and sell
150 |149 |00:36:44,279 ~-~-> 00:36:55,409 |side. And what I outlined was, it has already done a run on by sight overnight. And London tends to make the high of the day or the low of the day. Not all the
151 |150 |00:36:55,409 ~-~-> 00:37:05,849 |time. But largely you find that the truth, if there's going to be a directional market, for that particular trading day, because we have no real data points
152 |151 |00:37:05,849 ~-~-> 00:37:13,619 |coming out on the economic calendar, that should immediately reduce your interest to saying, Okay, it's probably going to be a small range day, it won't
153 |152 |00:37:13,619 ~-~-> 00:37:24,539 |be one of those big large Range Days. I'm not saying it can't do that. I'm speaking in terms of probabilities. So if it's less likely to be a large range
154 |153 |00:37:24,539 ~-~-> 00:37:36,719 |day where it's one sided, we don't go in with our guns blazing, trying to shoot it everything, it looks like a fair guy go demand it do something obvious. Okay.
155 |154 |00:37:36,899 ~-~-> 00:37:44,429 |So the only thing I did with you this morning to sit down and give you the logic that it was more likely to do a run to the gap because of overnight run on
156 |155 |00:37:44,429 ~-~-> 00:37:54,839 |Friday's highs. And again, for those who are just getting into the session. The only thing I pushed a button on today was here
157 |156 |00:38:00,660 ~-~-> 00:38:10,230 |and then covering the whole show there. Okay, so I was looking just for this little for liquidity right there. It's all was. So when you look at these
158 |157 |00:38:10,230 ~-~-> 00:38:23,790 |arrows, don't think I got out at that low look at the price 3930 and a quarter. Okay, so that's roughly about there. That's right in that low. It's all aiming
159 |158 |00:38:23,790 ~-~-> 00:38:35,850 |for. I didn't want to hold it. Because we all have data, there's no economic, high impact for me impact news events this this morning. So it could do what we
160 |159 |00:38:35,850 ~-~-> 00:38:43,950 |saw here. It went a little bit lower than where I got out who cares? I don't care. And setup that I was looking for was just kind of like what I was
161 |160 |00:38:43,980 ~-~-> 00:38:53,160 |outlining this morning, is we want to see price drop down into this gap. And it has done so. So did it completely closing the gap? No. Does it need to close
162 |161 |00:38:53,160 ~-~-> 00:39:07,680 |that gap? No. So take away this in the in the whole lecture today. Which pool of liquidity had more energy drawing price to it. These relatively equal highs
163 |162 |00:39:07,680 ~-~-> 00:39:16,890 |which are absolutely something to be mindful of. Because it could very easily just return back up in the air when it was during this run. But we've already
164 |163 |00:39:16,890 ~-~-> 00:39:28,740 |done the work of running Friday's highs overnight here. Then we broke internally the market structure here so all of this retracement back into this high to that
165 |164 |00:39:28,740 ~-~-> 00:39:38,640 |low. I saw Hannah's video. Hello Hannah. I'm going to give you something in Tuesday's video specifically that I want to highlight in your video. I'm not
166 |165 |00:39:38,640 ~-~-> 00:39:43,890 |going to play your video but I'm going to go to the minute marker and show something that you said. So I want to help you out in there and help your
167 |166 |00:39:43,890 ~-~-> 00:39:55,920 |viewers in mind as well. But the dealing ring tie in to dealing range low here. That's the range that you're looking for to look at the relationship between
168 |167 |00:39:56,100 ~-~-> 00:40:12,570 |premium and discount. So if it's just I guess We'll just do it there's 50% or equilibrium. Okay. So if you're looking for a drawl and liquidity down here, you
169 |168 |00:40:12,570 ~-~-> 00:40:22,590 |want to find your dealing range during just the high formed overnight, down to the low prior to the session starting at 30. News embargo? Well, there's no news
170 |169 |00:40:22,590 ~-~-> 00:40:36,270 |today. So we have to do what? Go right to 930. So at 930, they will have its own format chart. So it's a little wonky. The the idea is you want to see does it
171 |170 |00:40:36,270 ~-~-> 00:40:48,180 |has a fair value gap in a premium market? What's your, what's your dealing range, overnight high in the low that broke structure over here. So everything
172 |171 |00:40:48,180 ~-~-> 00:41:00,480 |now the framework is in play. For a short into this area, if there's a fair value gap that forms at equilibrium, or above it relative to this range, high
173 |172 |00:41:00,510 ~-~-> 00:41:11,250 |and low. That's the fair pay gap I mapped out, we went through it, yes. We're not trying to rush a trade, we're not trying to do any of that. We're going
174 |173 |00:41:11,250 ~-~-> 00:41:19,170 |above it. See if it takes this by side. Because if it would have done that, then broke down and offered a higher Faraday gap, I would have mentioned that. It
175 |174 |00:41:19,170 ~-~-> 00:41:27,330 |didn't do it, it started breaking down and I can watch the fair Vega went through it came back up bump the same level high. Again, look at the high of
176 |175 |00:41:27,330 ~-~-> 00:41:39,780 |this candle. You're looking at this price up here, folks. In case you don't know when I'm looking at this candles high 3934 and a half. We went back through it.
177 |176 |00:41:40,320 ~-~-> 00:41:50,070 |This candle here trades right back up to that same price level 3934 and a half watts and see if it respects that vereda does it? Yes. Where's it go sell side
178 |177 |00:41:50,580 ~-~-> 00:42:05,640 |sell side into the Sunday gap. This fair value gap? Is it at a premium? Or is it a discount relative to the dealer range high here in here? Premium. The fact
179 |178 |00:42:05,640 ~-~-> 00:42:16,770 |that it's not so pretty, it's not so textbook, it's not so well, it doesn't look like what he talked about in that one episode. Okay, I see some of your
180 |179 |00:42:16,890 ~-~-> 00:42:24,990 |comments. And I believe some of you are actually sincere about your doubts and your concerns. But not every single trade is going to look identical, they're
181 |180 |00:42:24,990 ~-~-> 00:42:34,950 |going to be very similar. But this is a day where I'm trying to teach you that this is the main thing, write this down in your journal today. We watched price
182 |181 |00:42:34,950 ~-~-> 00:42:46,590 |deliver to where we were expecting it to trade to the ideal scenario was Sunday's gap opening it traded to it. I pointed to a fair value gap, explained
183 |182 |00:42:46,590 ~-~-> 00:42:55,920 |how the market is more likely to go to the gap, then to the buy side. But let's watch and see if it takes the buy side. No trade was offered. No setup was an
184 |183 |00:42:55,920 ~-~-> 00:42:56,460 |entry.
185 |184 |00:42:57,720 ~-~-> 00:43:10,050 |And I talked about how this day because there's a lack of news. Is that high probability? No, it's a low probability. So that means you have to demand more
186 |185 |00:43:10,050 ~-~-> 00:43:19,590 |from price action. Some of you if not all of you, that are new would have never been comfortable watching price go back into that low into that fear of any gap
187 |186 |00:43:19,620 ~-~-> 00:43:24,180 |and expect this. But when we are dropping down to watch the fair value gap
188 |187 |00:43:30,000 ~-~-> 00:43:47,820 |3934 50 Perfect delivery back to the discount low. That makes the low end of the gap then delivers to this low this low into Sunday get on Twitter, I tweeted my
189 |188 |00:43:47,820 ~-~-> 00:43:59,460 |interest was that gap? So your question is going to be if you're not trading, you know, what are you doing? This is what I'm doing? I'm studying 30 years of
190 |189 |00:43:59,460 ~-~-> 00:44:12,240 |experience is only useful if you're staying active. You want to keep your your skill set honed. So even if I'm not trading, I'm still studying price because it
191 |190 |00:44:12,240 ~-~-> 00:44:23,250 |keeps me dialed in. Because I have commentaries and things I have to leave students in the right direction. So I keep myself plugged in to price action.
192 |191 |00:44:23,250 ~-~-> 00:44:32,400 |Even if I know I already know I'm not taking a trade. I have no interest in taking a trade. Those days are relegated to the days I know that there's no high
193 |192 |00:44:32,400 ~-~-> 00:44:41,070 |impact or medium impact news of x. So if you want to have a day or same a trading week, where you want to plan a day off with your spouse or significant
194 |193 |00:44:41,070 ~-~-> 00:44:50,430 |other. Choose a day that doesn't have high impact or medium impact news and just give yourself that day off and then go back and back tested later on. Who cares
195 |194 |00:44:50,430 ~-~-> 00:45:00,180 |if it has a big move that day? Chances are it's not likely to do that. And don't think that you have to be in every single trading day. You don't there's a lot
196 |195 |00:45:00,180 ~-~-> 00:45:12,570 |of times where I'm not interested in a whole week of trading, because the type of news drivers. And that's okay. Because I know that these things repeat
197 |196 |00:45:12,570 ~-~-> 00:45:23,610 |enough. I'm not in a rush. And I'm not afraid of missing something. And that's the importance of how I teach, I take my students through a very boring, first
198 |197 |00:45:23,640 ~-~-> 00:45:30,900 |six months, because you're actively trying to go in and push a button. And I know, because you're thinking, this is a video game. Folks, this is not a video
199 |198 |00:45:30,900 ~-~-> 00:45:42,240 |game. This is an invitation to have a financial graveyard, if you walk in there looking for a hole to fall into, there's lots of them. Lots of that opportunity.
200 |199 |00:45:42,810 ~-~-> 00:45:51,990 |There's lots of people out there teaching you how to push a button and get into a trade, there's no one teaching you how to avoid trauma, none of those that
201 |200 |00:45:51,990 ~-~-> 00:45:59,070 |none of those factors are ever touched on. Because 99% of people out there they're trying to teach, they are not profitable traders, they're doing
202 |201 |00:45:59,070 ~-~-> 00:46:08,670 |something that's silly to be they're doing something that's manipulated, showing you fake results, or they're doing with a market replay type scenario. If they
203 |202 |00:46:08,670 ~-~-> 00:46:15,180 |know how to do it, they're going to call it and outline it and give the logic why it should do what should be doing. And that's what I'm telling you here.
204 |203 |00:46:15,480 ~-~-> 00:46:23,280 |When you sit down in front of your charts, you need to be thinking like this, asking yourself questions, okay. If I was in the market right now, would I be
205 |204 |00:46:23,280 ~-~-> 00:46:32,400 |wanting to take a trade and if I were, would I be wanting to go long or short? What would justify me being long or short. And vice versa, as soon as you get to
206 |205 |00:46:32,400 ~-~-> 00:46:41,250 |that conclusion about what you would want to do? Start looking at it from the opposite side. And journal that discovery, because you're going to see how you
207 |206 |00:46:41,250 ~-~-> 00:46:52,350 |look at price now. And how you're gonna look at it come December, around Christmas time, I promise you folks, I promise you, you will see things in the
208 |207 |00:46:52,350 ~-~-> 00:47:00,960 |chart that you're not observing right now. And it's going to be clear to you come December, because you've put in months of reading the tape like this,
209 |208 |00:47:01,230 ~-~-> 00:47:02,190 |studying it.
210 |209 |00:47:07,650 ~-~-> 00:47:21,210 |All right now, in this circumstance. Now, I'll leave you with this, okay. We have traded down below the sell side here. And here, we have an imbalance, right
211 |210 |00:47:21,210 ~-~-> 00:47:31,410 |there. That might be a factor that could send us one more time deeper into the Sunday gap. If we rally back above this gap here, think about like a mile marker
212 |211 |00:47:31,410 ~-~-> 00:47:39,720 |that it should not go back above that. And if it does, it could act as support there and send us into the buy side and maybe even deeper here. Study it. I'm
213 |212 |00:47:39,720 ~-~-> 00:47:49,380 |not saying it's a trade, okay. But as long as we stay below this imbalance, the likelihood is we could move between this range low and whatever high forms here,
214 |213 |00:47:49,410 ~-~-> 00:47:58,380 |and it would likely become a little bit heavier, the trade into that gap entirely. Should we trade into that gap and go below it, watch that in the
215 |214 |00:47:58,380 ~-~-> 00:48:09,330 |afternoon session between 130 and four o'clock, that might be an area to study for the afternoon session, I think that is going to be it for today. I don't
216 |215 |00:48:09,330 ~-~-> 00:48:15,990 |want to give you too much more than that. Because again, it's just it's a day where I personally would not be involved in. But I want to give you the reasons
217 |216 |00:48:15,990 ~-~-> 00:48:22,800 |and the logic as to why I wouldn't participate in it. It's not enough for me to say, well, that's a day I wouldn't have traded anyway, you know, and sound like
218 |217 |00:48:22,800 ~-~-> 00:48:31,410 |a smart guy. I'm telling you the reasons why. So that way, you can use that same logic going forward and hopefully present the opportunity for you to have a life
219 |218 |00:48:31,410 ~-~-> 00:48:37,620 |outside the charts. Even though the markets are trading. It doesn't mean go in there. Oh, you know, I got, I gotta get in front of charts and push a button.
220 |219 |00:48:37,620 ~-~-> 00:48:49,230 |They don't who says you got to do that. The Gambler inside of us says that. Okay, so you want to keep the analyst in the driver's seat, okay, and keep the
221 |220 |00:48:49,230 ~-~-> 00:48:55,860 |gambler out of it. He's got to be in the backseat or she's got to be in the backseat. Don't Don't invite them to drive because they'll steer you right into
222 |221 |00:48:55,860 ~-~-> 00:49:07,470 |a tree. Alright, so we're back into that fair pay gap. We're above it. So think here now. Okay. And we'll study in hindsight on Twitter. I guess I'll post
223 |222 |00:49:07,470 ~-~-> 00:49:15,060 |something later on this afternoon. I have lots of work to get done with my private group. Hopefully you found something here today insightful. And I will
224 |223 |00:49:15,060 ~-~-> 00:49:24,570 |try to do this again tomorrow around the 815 time period. We'll meet again. Okay. So I'll talk to you next time. Be safe.