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ICT YT - 2022-05-23 - The Inner Circle Trader Live Test Stream.srt

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2022-05-27 12:05
1 00:01:00,450 --> 00:01:12,330 ICT: I don't know how to see if you can hear or see my screen. But if you could go over to Twitter help me out here because I can't tell if you can see me and I
2 00:01:12,330 --> 00:01:13,530 can't pull it up on my end
3 00:01:22,650 --> 00:01:24,300 these are my streaming right now
4 00:01:43,500 --> 00:01:58,020 thank you Tom, can you hear me can you see the full screen? I guess that's really what I need to see. But can you see my entire screen if I do that because
5 00:01:58,020 --> 00:01:59,250 I can't pull it up on my side
6 00:02:23,970 --> 00:02:28,500 is the full screen like you can see the entire price axis and the time axis Correct?
7 00:02:42,540 --> 00:02:52,380 Awesome, thank you. Thank Thank you very much for your patience and help. Alright, so I'm gonna
8 00:02:57,600 --> 00:03:11,520 to start paying attention here and we'll see what we see. I like the idea of the Sunday got being revisited so far, but not rushing anything. No news this
9 00:03:11,520 --> 00:03:25,800 morning. So I'm more interested in getting acclimated to the live streaming. That way it can be a little bit easier for me to navigate.
10 00:03:58,320 --> 00:04:11,010 There's a gap opening on Sunday that I was referring to in case you didn't see the tweet I posted on Twitter. Usually not always, usually. If there's a gap
11 00:04:11,010 --> 00:04:20,850 opening on Sunday, likes to go down there and revisited doesn't necessarily have to fill it entirely. But I'd like to see it at least show a willingness to get
12 00:04:20,850 --> 00:04:32,130 down there. The interesting thing about what I'm looking for is should it trade down there? Does it react strongly like our support idea like does it send price
13 00:04:32,400 --> 00:04:50,700 vertical after that? Because if that's the case, we will be looking for levels like that, like in tomorrow or later in the week is a little too much. For right
14 00:04:50,700 --> 00:04:51,960 now in terms of forecasting
15 00:05:02,490 --> 00:05:08,520 So we're going to do is study a little bit about how price is reacting this morning without any news
16 00:05:23,700 --> 00:05:38,010 if you're commenting to me on Twitter or on the chat I can't see you because I'm more interested in making sure I'm learning how to make sure this like chain
17 00:05:38,010 --> 00:05:38,520 works
18 00:05:43,800 --> 00:05:54,330 alright small little gap in here not something that fits the model yet but I'm I'm noting it we have relatively equal lows here but you just clear that out
19 00:06:19,230 --> 00:06:20,010 dabbled
20 00:06:24,990 --> 00:06:36,720 last night you can see us Friday's high here we sell Sidon here
21 00:06:53,040 --> 00:07:01,230 2020 To bury everything ICG would never do Yeah, we're gonna see about that
22 00:07:18,330 --> 00:07:20,250 so there's a little bit of by side
23 00:07:27,870 --> 00:07:38,520 up here, this is what I was watching to see if you're going to try to make an attempt to sweep into that again. And then maybe run for the gap on Sunday. That
24 00:07:38,520 --> 00:07:49,200 was one of the things I had in mind this morning, but it hasn't shown any kind of willingness to want to do that. It remains heavy so sell side Rest Have a
25 00:07:49,200 --> 00:08:04,890 look here into this area here just cycling through lower timeframes.
26 00:08:16,440 --> 00:08:29,790 On days when it does not have high impact news you're going to want to make sure that you resign yourself to just looking for the 930 opening volatility that
27 00:08:29,790 --> 00:08:31,560 gives you any framework
28 00:08:46,680 --> 00:09:02,700 when there are when there is rather high impact news we can use 830 to set up a framework that would likely give us some foresight into how the 930 in the
29 00:09:02,700 --> 00:09:05,340 morning volatility may service.
30 00:09:22,230 --> 00:09:36,900 So one of the things that I want you to observe here is number one, we've had Friday's highs taken out here. We swept above it broke down small little gap in
31 00:09:36,900 --> 00:09:48,960 here. Okay, notice the time of day here. It's 220 in the morning, New York local time. Again, if you don't have your time set in New York, it's going to be very
32 00:09:48,960 --> 00:10:02,130 confusing for you. But as swing low, broken, fair value got traded back up to Friday's high and here is the gap. So here's the money I'm working in London it
33 00:10:02,130 --> 00:10:12,960 breaks down small little Judas swing here at four o'clock in the morning, the South Side wrestling below here and inside this little bit of imbalance but it
34 00:10:12,960 --> 00:10:26,130 my thought process is yes it went down into here. But this is in my opinion, the more significant price factor as of I tweeted about it this morning now some of
35 00:10:26,130 --> 00:10:36,060 you may be thinking, Okay, why aren't you going short because I don't have a setup that will give me framework to provide the risk model right now it's
36 00:10:36,060 --> 00:10:47,550 important for you to just see does it draw to areas that make the most sense not every single day are you going to be pushing a button especially right now
37 00:10:47,580 --> 00:10:54,060 you're learning you're trying to read price action you're not trying to get in there and and push a button trying to make money some of you are in a hurry to
38 00:10:54,060 --> 00:10:58,020 do that. And you're really cheating yourself in the learning process
39 00:11:11,070 --> 00:11:27,060 watch this low here sometimes price will just that short of a short term low and like a long candle like this, it can come back up and just touch it and roll
40 00:11:27,060 --> 00:11:30,090 forward and get into liquidity you're looking for
41 00:11:35,340 --> 00:11:37,080 so far, it's one sided this morning.
42 00:11:59,159 --> 00:12:02,279 Not trying to take any trades you're observing folks
43 00:12:07,980 --> 00:12:10,800 some of your already probably got 10 contracts
44 00:12:10,799 --> 00:12:13,229 you're trying to get rich ICTs going on
45 00:12:14,429 --> 00:12:15,839 is on short is getting here.
46 00:12:44,100 --> 00:12:52,170 Alright, retail will see this right here as support broken turn resistance. If it's going to come up back this far. I'm thinking watch this area here.
47 00:13:00,269 --> 00:13:08,639 does not need to fill or even return back to Sunday's gap. That's this what I'm watching this morning, I'm having you consider the same thing. Because there's
48 00:13:08,639 --> 00:13:22,199 no real news this morning. We're not trying to play any volatility. Just tape reading. We have high impact news tomorrow. If my memory is correct, I think
49 00:13:22,199 --> 00:13:29,759 it's PMI numbers and housing. But don't quote me on it. I know I've ever seen it. But it may not be tomorrow, maybe another day.
50 00:13:36,120 --> 00:13:46,860 So the question you might be asking or thinking is, do I just simply not trade on days where there does show a high impact news event or medium impact news
51 00:13:46,860 --> 00:13:58,170 event? economic calendar? And what economic calendar Am I using, you can use just about any reputable economic calendar, there's not really any specific one
52 00:13:58,170 --> 00:14:06,210 that's going to be better than the other in my opinion. It's just a matter how they deliver the like I'm, I'm obsessive. So I like things a certain way. And
53 00:14:06,240 --> 00:14:14,070 there are some calendars that give the same data and time for events being released. But because the way they present it just doesn't seem like right now
54 00:14:14,070 --> 00:14:21,900 some of you who are hating the fact that my charts updated, like this color now, go back to the black and green and the white background. I would love to I would
55 00:14:21,900 --> 00:14:31,110 love to do that. But my eyes are failing. And I have to do what I can to protect them. So this is more comfortable for me to look at. So please don't send me any
56 00:14:31,110 --> 00:14:44,520 posts in my comment section on my videos, or on my Twitter asking me to go back to that because I can't. So we went back up into our fair value get here and you
57 00:14:44,520 --> 00:14:53,580 want to study and see does it respect that because if it goes through it, then we're gonna be looking for a deeper run to get to the buy side here. Again,
58 00:14:53,610 --> 00:15:00,690 resist the temptation to want to push the button and get in. You're learning how to do this. Okay, you're not learning how to gamble. while you're trying to get
59 00:15:00,690 --> 00:15:09,930 in here and push a button and see what happens, you're studying price. Watching see what it does? Does it show signatures that repeat? Is there any logic to the
60 00:15:09,930 --> 00:15:19,500 markets morning? Is it trying to get somewhere in an obvious manner? So far, the only thing it's done is returned back to the Fahrenheit gap.
61 00:15:26,639 --> 00:15:38,099 Now, if you want to, like I guess, how would you study this, like I said, like a walk forward, not a back testing was a walk forward study from the point of
62 00:15:38,099 --> 00:15:48,599 which it touched the fear Vega here, note the time that it did it. And how long does it take, if at all, because it could just run right over top the fear of a
63 00:15:48,599 --> 00:15:58,259 gap and run into bias that I have here. But I want you to think about how much time it takes for price to move away from either above and invalidate that fear
64 00:15:58,259 --> 00:16:01,769 that you got, or move away from it and run into something that
65 00:16:07,500 --> 00:16:14,670 looks a little too overzealous in here. I've never seen it come off that and go lower
66 00:16:22,740 --> 00:16:36,000 traders are waking up and seeing how equities are firmer from last week. So that kind of builds in the idea that hey, maybe it's time to buy and we're going to
67 00:16:36,000 --> 00:16:44,070 utilize that sentiment this morning no real economic data the key off of but.
68 00:17:04,980 --> 00:17:06,510 complete closure, the fair bank app.
69 00:17:19,619 --> 00:17:29,339 Now on days like this with no news, okay, these are the types of things that some of you are just, you don't want to be met with this type of data, but you
70 00:17:29,339 --> 00:17:39,179 have to see it. You have a day with no economic news. You have no drivers for the calendar saying that high impact or medium impact news events should
71 00:17:39,179 --> 00:17:47,579 transpire. I'm teaching you to be mindful the Sunday gap opening that usually acts like a magnet that draws price doesn't necessarily mean it's gonna go there
72 00:17:47,579 --> 00:17:56,609 immediately on Sundays trading, or Monday's trading. Sometimes it'll be revisited later in the week. There isn't really a rule that says it has to come
73 00:17:56,609 --> 00:18:08,339 back by specific time. But right now looking at this I want you to study how much time it's spending in this fair value gap. And let's assume for a moment
74 00:18:08,339 --> 00:18:23,429 that you did take that fear of a gap as a short for Sunday's get the horse drawn to now do you feel comfortable on a day where there's no economic data? Nothing
75 00:18:23,429 --> 00:18:36,599 really, that's setting up a volatility that would be one sided there's no there's no strong one side in this for the market to push other than just to
76 00:18:36,599 --> 00:18:45,599 keep pushing the idea to narrative that it's bullish. So we're above the fair value got you wouldn't have to take that stop loss right there. Look for the buy
77 00:18:45,599 --> 00:18:49,229 side above these highs right in here now.
78 00:18:58,710 --> 00:19:10,980 Knowing what you're looking for, keeps you out of trades that will be marginal and knowing what you're looking for when there's an economic calendar behind you
79 00:19:10,980 --> 00:20:02,280 with volatility sets the stage for manipulation. One of the hardest lessons for me to beat into students minds. I found is teaching them how to know when not to
80 00:20:02,280 --> 00:20:15,900 do something. That was the lessons I wish I would have learned early on in early 90s. There's many ways to make money, lots of ways to make money, but there are
81 00:20:16,170 --> 00:20:26,400 just as much if not more ways to lose it. And if you understand the conditions in the marketplace that will invite those environments or circumstances in your
82 00:20:26,400 --> 00:20:35,430 trading. In other words, how do you differentiate what day to trade? Well, number one, the economic calendar, I'm looking for a medium impact or high
83 00:20:35,430 --> 00:20:47,010 impact news event around 830 Or maybe at 10 o'clock, something to the effect? Because I know they're going to utilize that for manipulation. So if they have
84 00:20:47,670 --> 00:20:57,930 no real economic news being released that day, generally not all the time. But generally, you're going to have a lackluster trading session. So that means is
85 00:20:57,930 --> 00:21:08,610 that a day where you would put in your typical risk? If you're gonna take a trade? Or would you elevate your risk and take larger trades? No. First thing
86 00:21:08,610 --> 00:21:16,980 would be justifying whether or not you should be taking any action at all. That means demanding the price action be absolutely pristine, seeing exactly what
87 00:21:16,980 --> 00:21:30,810 you're looking for a very clear level to react to. I was looking for somebody's got, I want to see that be drawn to. We got down below short term love here. But
88 00:21:30,810 --> 00:21:45,120 right from the opening, it's just more or less than a drop down to take sellside out now buyside is the next likely candidate for run. These highs over here look
89 00:21:45,120 --> 00:21:57,600 a little suspect as well. So just be mindful that. And there's some I guarantee I don't see it, but I know there's some trolls in here. Think Oh, yeah, yeah,
90 00:21:58,020 --> 00:22:06,030 it's going up or down. Anybody can do that. Now I'm teaching you how to read how to stay out of the marketplace. When is it a good time to be trading? When is it
91 00:22:07,080 --> 00:22:19,770 5050? When is it not likely to present something that's high probability? And I've already executed overnight. So I'm already for my liking. And you're
92 00:22:19,770 --> 00:22:28,440 probably asking, Well, why didn't you wait for it to go down to Sunday gap opening if you if you sold short up here, watch take profit early and not run
93 00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:37,800 this on these gap. Because that's one of the things that I'm kind of pushing to you now. There is no high impact news today. There's no impact on medium or high
94 00:22:37,800 --> 00:22:50,220 end. So I'm going to take the easy low hanging fruit if I'm in a position getting shored up here. There's sell side below here, here and here. But it is
95 00:22:50,220 --> 00:23:00,390 likely to do what look what this chart showing right now. Look at all the data that I have right now. Is it bullish? Is it bearish? Or is it consolidating?
96 00:23:04,650 --> 00:23:18,180 It's consolidating, it's sideways. We're firmer. We're higher than we were obviously going Friday. And it's building in a bit trying to draw price higher.
97 00:23:18,390 --> 00:23:27,390 It's squeezing on shorts. A lot of people are hoping this thing goes to zero. It's not gonna zero folks, but I'm just saying that they're they've been
98 00:23:27,390 --> 00:23:38,460 extremely bearish because they've watched Friday go down. So anyone that's been short prior to Friday, their trail stop losses are on the menu.
99 00:24:04,440 --> 00:24:19,620 Just taking a look at the dollar index to get that short term low. Looks like we could go a little bit lower. On dollar there's a small 15 minute period a gap
100 00:24:19,620 --> 00:24:31,200 $1. I'd like to see it go through that. The downside is relatively equal lows. On today's lows, I want to see a pantry that does that that gives us lift for
101 00:24:32,280 --> 00:24:45,390 the index futures to go higher. So dollar lower opens the gates for higher prices on index futures because that would be a risk on scenario. Watch that
102 00:24:45,390 --> 00:24:46,440 fair value gap in here.
103 00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:04,560 The bond markets not doing anything today quiet till?
104 00:26:48,869 --> 00:26:57,269 Now assume you just open your computer out, you haven't watched any this price action you haven't referred anything you're sitting down in front of your
105 00:26:57,269 --> 00:27:09,119 computer, you're looking at the market and you're looking at this particular market ask yourself Is there anything that stands out is obvious? Is there
106 00:27:09,119 --> 00:27:20,699 anything that would set up the stage as a one sided move either higher or lower because we have the conditions here we have clean highs. Only thing going for it
107 00:27:20,729 --> 00:27:30,899 is we already took out Friday's high and we already broke down from this dealing range high this dealing range low we're still inside that range. With all this
108 00:27:30,899 --> 00:27:41,759 price action nothing has broken to the upside or downside we're still inside the dealing range that was set by overnight London trading here this low and this
109 00:27:41,759 --> 00:27:50,369 high and the question is going to be what do you mean by dealing range okay dealing ranges where market structure has provided a means for a trading
110 00:27:50,369 --> 00:28:04,619 opportunity and has moved outside the boundaries which would have been this low and Friday's high. So ran above Friday's high, it broke intraday low here there
111 00:28:05,759 --> 00:28:16,019 was the fair value gap now because we took liquidity here in here so it could come back up and revisit that if it does that and see if it has any kind of
112 00:28:16,319 --> 00:28:25,619 sensitivity there to go then down into some of these gaps. But back when I was saying we're inside dealing range between the high here that was piercing
113 00:28:25,649 --> 00:28:37,889 Friday's high. So Friday's High was taken out here. It broke down and gave a logical setup as I mentioned earlier in the stream sellside you can see again, I
114 00:28:37,889 --> 00:28:47,009 operated and engaged with that logic. Now we have this low here so the significant sell side is here but below that where would it want to reach to if
115 00:28:47,009 --> 00:29:00,239 it goes there into Sunday's gap opening scrubs so there's some these gap opening. So sitting down in front of the computer, the first thing I'm looking
116 00:29:00,239 --> 00:29:12,479 for is how did we trade overnight while we took Friday's look like assume I didn't do anything in London I'm looking at how it went above Friday's high, it
117 00:29:12,479 --> 00:29:27,719 broke down. So we have built in we have the advantage of Fridays taken by side to lower to high on Fridays taken out. We broke down internally on the intraday
118 00:29:29,039 --> 00:29:43,109 we rallied once here didn't get back above Friday's high, rallied here we failed. Failed, they went lower. Then we ran again swept one two highs on by
119 00:29:43,109 --> 00:29:54,899 side wasn't able to get the boss on liquidity here. We have sell side boy this low and this low. So if it goes for the sell side, doesn't it make sense that we
120 00:29:54,899 --> 00:30:08,699 want to reach into Sunday's gap now with that law Check, which is in your opinion, and I'm gonna have to see this on Twitter. Just respond to me send me a
121 00:30:08,699 --> 00:30:21,089 tweet with a number one right now it's at one minute to 10 to 959 Is it more likely to take the sell side out or the buy side right now
122 00:30:34,320 --> 00:30:45,420 some of you are already pushing the button themselves. Don't do that you're cheating yourself. I'm not gonna be doing cryptic messages to try to get you
123 00:30:45,420 --> 00:30:56,250 signals. I'm teaching you how to read price. I'll push some buttons on a demo in front of you. But it's got to be the right setup and framework. I'll teach you
124 00:30:56,250 --> 00:30:58,800 how to master pseudo risk and as well.
125 00:31:15,359 --> 00:31:24,629 Think about what the public is thinking. They woke up this morning. They're looking at the equities opening. It's up it's up from Friday's close. It's gone
126 00:31:24,629 --> 00:31:33,269 up a little bit. It's you know, governments go so they're thinking what it's going higher they want to do what they think is going higher. What are they
127 00:31:33,269 --> 00:31:41,969 going to be doing? They're going to be wanting to buy so if there's going to place buy orders into the marketplace where are they going to put their stop
128 00:31:41,969 --> 00:31:56,219 losses to protect their long positions underneath recent lows right that would be here and here in blue the logic is the markets want to sometimes most of the
129 00:31:56,219 --> 00:31:59,459 time want to fill in those Sunday gaps.
130 00:32:56,190 --> 00:33:17,580 See that look at the gap. Discount Well, no words it's the lower end that frames the the gap with this candles high 3934 50. I told you to watch the fair value
131 00:33:17,580 --> 00:33:31,380 gap what what's the high on that candle 3934 50 You cannot beat perfect where the trade to sell side. So if it's going to take that we're going to go into
132 00:33:31,560 --> 00:33:45,540 Sunday's gap. So now you want to study does it go into the entire closure of the gap which would be right there that high. So 39 04 Even, you want to have that
133 00:33:45,540 --> 00:33:49,140 level when your chart will take the shaded part out.
134 00:33:52,440 --> 00:34:00,600 Let's drop a line on it Okay, so it needs to look like that
135 00:34:13,139 --> 00:34:23,939 now for your notes. If we trade below a Sunday gap and trade back up to it, sometimes it'll act as resistance. So you can look at that and study that going
136 00:34:23,939 --> 00:34:30,119 into the afternoon session which I won't be with you for we're going to close the stream here in about five minutes or so.
137 00:34:41,159 --> 00:34:49,499 So when you're watching price and studying, going through your charts, looking at the things I'm teaching you, this is what you're doing. This is tape reading,
138 00:34:49,799 --> 00:34:59,309 you're observing this is where all of you since January when I first started doing this mentorship for free on YouTube. This is all you should be doing. If
139 00:34:59,309 --> 00:35:09,299 not this You should be obviously spending your time on the weekends back testing and studying old data, not doing it with live data. But observing, once you've
140 00:35:09,299 --> 00:35:16,889 done a significant portion, because I know a lot of you have already started in January, with the things I've taught. So you're going through your charts, and
141 00:35:16,889 --> 00:35:23,969 you've seen lots of examples of it. So now what you're doing is the next stage is to do what we're doing here. So if you're new, if you just started following
142 00:35:23,969 --> 00:35:36,359 me, don't do this part. So I'm not trying to confuse anyone. Obviously, I'm working forward with the people that have already started with me in January of
143 00:35:36,359 --> 00:35:49,319 2022. At this point, right about now, because you should have done enough back testing and convinced yourself that this pattern exists is there now going into
144 00:35:49,319 --> 00:36:01,199 the live markets and studying forward? Notice that there's no paper trade entry, there's no demo entry, there's no pursuit to get into a live trade, you're going
145 00:36:01,199 --> 00:36:11,519 through the motions of looking at the circumstances that lead to high probability? Does the market give you insights based on economic calendar,
146 00:36:11,879 --> 00:36:21,209 there's going to be volatility in the marketplace, that's going to be in the form of either a medium impact or a high impact news driver, some kind of report
147 00:36:21,239 --> 00:36:34,799 some kind of data point that comes out. Since there's an absence of that this morning, we're resigning ourselves to relying solely on price action. So So
148 00:36:34,859 --> 00:36:44,279 solely on price action, it needs to be perfect, it needs to be a perfect one sided setup. Whereas right now, we had both sides offering buy side and sell
149 00:36:44,279 --> 00:36:55,409 side. And what I outlined was, it has already done a run on by sight overnight. And London tends to make the high of the day or the low of the day. Not all the
150 00:36:55,409 --> 00:37:05,849 time. But largely you find that the truth, if there's going to be a directional market, for that particular trading day, because we have no real data points
151 00:37:05,849 --> 00:37:13,619 coming out on the economic calendar, that should immediately reduce your interest to saying, Okay, it's probably going to be a small range day, it won't
152 00:37:13,619 --> 00:37:24,539 be one of those big large Range Days. I'm not saying it can't do that. I'm speaking in terms of probabilities. So if it's less likely to be a large range
153 00:37:24,539 --> 00:37:36,719 day where it's one sided, we don't go in with our guns blazing, trying to shoot it everything, it looks like a fair guy go demand it do something obvious. Okay.
154 00:37:36,899 --> 00:37:44,429 So the only thing I did with you this morning to sit down and give you the logic that it was more likely to do a run to the gap because of overnight run on
155 00:37:44,429 --> 00:37:54,839 Friday's highs. And again, for those who are just getting into the session. The only thing I pushed a button on today was here
156 00:38:00,660 --> 00:38:10,230 and then covering the whole show there. Okay, so I was looking just for this little for liquidity right there. It's all was. So when you look at these
157 00:38:10,230 --> 00:38:23,790 arrows, don't think I got out at that low look at the price 3930 and a quarter. Okay, so that's roughly about there. That's right in that low. It's all aiming
158 00:38:23,790 --> 00:38:35,850 for. I didn't want to hold it. Because we all have data, there's no economic, high impact for me impact news events this this morning. So it could do what we
159 00:38:35,850 --> 00:38:43,950 saw here. It went a little bit lower than where I got out who cares? I don't care. And setup that I was looking for was just kind of like what I was
160 00:38:43,980 --> 00:38:53,160 outlining this morning, is we want to see price drop down into this gap. And it has done so. So did it completely closing the gap? No. Does it need to close
161 00:38:53,160 --> 00:39:07,680 that gap? No. So take away this in the in the whole lecture today. Which pool of liquidity had more energy drawing price to it. These relatively equal highs
162 00:39:07,680 --> 00:39:16,890 which are absolutely something to be mindful of. Because it could very easily just return back up in the air when it was during this run. But we've already
163 00:39:16,890 --> 00:39:28,740 done the work of running Friday's highs overnight here. Then we broke internally the market structure here so all of this retracement back into this high to that
164 00:39:28,740 --> 00:39:38,640 low. I saw Hannah's video. Hello Hannah. I'm going to give you something in Tuesday's video specifically that I want to highlight in your video. I'm not
165 00:39:38,640 --> 00:39:43,890 going to play your video but I'm going to go to the minute marker and show something that you said. So I want to help you out in there and help your
166 00:39:43,890 --> 00:39:55,920 viewers in mind as well. But the dealing ring tie in to dealing range low here. That's the range that you're looking for to look at the relationship between
167 00:39:56,100 --> 00:40:12,570 premium and discount. So if it's just I guess We'll just do it there's 50% or equilibrium. Okay. So if you're looking for a drawl and liquidity down here, you
168 00:40:12,570 --> 00:40:22,590 want to find your dealing range during just the high formed overnight, down to the low prior to the session starting at 30. News embargo? Well, there's no news
169 00:40:22,590 --> 00:40:36,270 today. So we have to do what? Go right to 930. So at 930, they will have its own format chart. So it's a little wonky. The the idea is you want to see does it
170 00:40:36,270 --> 00:40:48,180 has a fair value gap in a premium market? What's your, what's your dealing range, overnight high in the low that broke structure over here. So everything
171 00:40:48,180 --> 00:41:00,480 now the framework is in play. For a short into this area, if there's a fair value gap that forms at equilibrium, or above it relative to this range, high
172 00:41:00,510 --> 00:41:11,250 and low. That's the fair pay gap I mapped out, we went through it, yes. We're not trying to rush a trade, we're not trying to do any of that. We're going
173 00:41:11,250 --> 00:41:19,170 above it. See if it takes this by side. Because if it would have done that, then broke down and offered a higher Faraday gap, I would have mentioned that. It
174 00:41:19,170 --> 00:41:27,330 didn't do it, it started breaking down and I can watch the fair Vega went through it came back up bump the same level high. Again, look at the high of
175 00:41:27,330 --> 00:41:39,780 this candle. You're looking at this price up here, folks. In case you don't know when I'm looking at this candles high 3934 and a half. We went back through it.
176 00:41:40,320 --> 00:41:50,070 This candle here trades right back up to that same price level 3934 and a half watts and see if it respects that vereda does it? Yes. Where's it go sell side
177 00:41:50,580 --> 00:42:05,640 sell side into the Sunday gap. This fair value gap? Is it at a premium? Or is it a discount relative to the dealer range high here in here? Premium. The fact
178 00:42:05,640 --> 00:42:16,770 that it's not so pretty, it's not so textbook, it's not so well, it doesn't look like what he talked about in that one episode. Okay, I see some of your
179 00:42:16,890 --> 00:42:24,990 comments. And I believe some of you are actually sincere about your doubts and your concerns. But not every single trade is going to look identical, they're
180 00:42:24,990 --> 00:42:34,950 going to be very similar. But this is a day where I'm trying to teach you that this is the main thing, write this down in your journal today. We watched price
181 00:42:34,950 --> 00:42:46,590 deliver to where we were expecting it to trade to the ideal scenario was Sunday's gap opening it traded to it. I pointed to a fair value gap, explained
182 00:42:46,590 --> 00:42:55,920 how the market is more likely to go to the gap, then to the buy side. But let's watch and see if it takes the buy side. No trade was offered. No setup was an
183 00:42:55,920 --> 00:42:56,460 entry.
184 00:42:57,720 --> 00:43:10,050 And I talked about how this day because there's a lack of news. Is that high probability? No, it's a low probability. So that means you have to demand more
185 00:43:10,050 --> 00:43:19,590 from price action. Some of you if not all of you, that are new would have never been comfortable watching price go back into that low into that fear of any gap
186 00:43:19,620 --> 00:43:24,180 and expect this. But when we are dropping down to watch the fair value gap
187 00:43:30,000 --> 00:43:47,820 3934 50 Perfect delivery back to the discount low. That makes the low end of the gap then delivers to this low this low into Sunday get on Twitter, I tweeted my
188 00:43:47,820 --> 00:43:59,460 interest was that gap? So your question is going to be if you're not trading, you know, what are you doing? This is what I'm doing? I'm studying 30 years of
189 00:43:59,460 --> 00:44:12,240 experience is only useful if you're staying active. You want to keep your your skill set honed. So even if I'm not trading, I'm still studying price because it
190 00:44:12,240 --> 00:44:23,250 keeps me dialed in. Because I have commentaries and things I have to leave students in the right direction. So I keep myself plugged in to price action.
191 00:44:23,250 --> 00:44:32,400 Even if I know I already know I'm not taking a trade. I have no interest in taking a trade. Those days are relegated to the days I know that there's no high
192 00:44:32,400 --> 00:44:41,070 impact or medium impact news of x. So if you want to have a day or same a trading week, where you want to plan a day off with your spouse or significant
193 00:44:41,070 --> 00:44:50,430 other. Choose a day that doesn't have high impact or medium impact news and just give yourself that day off and then go back and back tested later on. Who cares
194 00:44:50,430 --> 00:45:00,180 if it has a big move that day? Chances are it's not likely to do that. And don't think that you have to be in every single trading day. You don't there's a lot
195 00:45:00,180 --> 00:45:12,570 of times where I'm not interested in a whole week of trading, because the type of news drivers. And that's okay. Because I know that these things repeat
196 00:45:12,570 --> 00:45:23,610 enough. I'm not in a rush. And I'm not afraid of missing something. And that's the importance of how I teach, I take my students through a very boring, first
197 00:45:23,640 --> 00:45:30,900 six months, because you're actively trying to go in and push a button. And I know, because you're thinking, this is a video game. Folks, this is not a video
198 00:45:30,900 --> 00:45:42,240 game. This is an invitation to have a financial graveyard, if you walk in there looking for a hole to fall into, there's lots of them. Lots of that opportunity.
199 00:45:42,810 --> 00:45:51,990 There's lots of people out there teaching you how to push a button and get into a trade, there's no one teaching you how to avoid trauma, none of those that
200 00:45:51,990 --> 00:45:59,070 none of those factors are ever touched on. Because 99% of people out there they're trying to teach, they are not profitable traders, they're doing
201 00:45:59,070 --> 00:46:08,670 something that's silly to be they're doing something that's manipulated, showing you fake results, or they're doing with a market replay type scenario. If they
202 00:46:08,670 --> 00:46:15,180 know how to do it, they're going to call it and outline it and give the logic why it should do what should be doing. And that's what I'm telling you here.
203 00:46:15,480 --> 00:46:23,280 When you sit down in front of your charts, you need to be thinking like this, asking yourself questions, okay. If I was in the market right now, would I be
204 00:46:23,280 --> 00:46:32,400 wanting to take a trade and if I were, would I be wanting to go long or short? What would justify me being long or short. And vice versa, as soon as you get to
205 00:46:32,400 --> 00:46:41,250 that conclusion about what you would want to do? Start looking at it from the opposite side. And journal that discovery, because you're going to see how you
206 00:46:41,250 --> 00:46:52,350 look at price now. And how you're gonna look at it come December, around Christmas time, I promise you folks, I promise you, you will see things in the
207 00:46:52,350 --> 00:47:00,960 chart that you're not observing right now. And it's going to be clear to you come December, because you've put in months of reading the tape like this,
208 00:47:01,230 --> 00:47:02,190 studying it.
209 00:47:07,650 --> 00:47:21,210 All right now, in this circumstance. Now, I'll leave you with this, okay. We have traded down below the sell side here. And here, we have an imbalance, right
210 00:47:21,210 --> 00:47:31,410 there. That might be a factor that could send us one more time deeper into the Sunday gap. If we rally back above this gap here, think about like a mile marker
211 00:47:31,410 --> 00:47:39,720 that it should not go back above that. And if it does, it could act as support there and send us into the buy side and maybe even deeper here. Study it. I'm
212 00:47:39,720 --> 00:47:49,380 not saying it's a trade, okay. But as long as we stay below this imbalance, the likelihood is we could move between this range low and whatever high forms here,
213 00:47:49,410 --> 00:47:58,380 and it would likely become a little bit heavier, the trade into that gap entirely. Should we trade into that gap and go below it, watch that in the
214 00:47:58,380 --> 00:48:09,330 afternoon session between 130 and four o'clock, that might be an area to study for the afternoon session, I think that is going to be it for today. I don't
215 00:48:09,330 --> 00:48:15,990 want to give you too much more than that. Because again, it's just it's a day where I personally would not be involved in. But I want to give you the reasons
216 00:48:15,990 --> 00:48:22,800 and the logic as to why I wouldn't participate in it. It's not enough for me to say, well, that's a day I wouldn't have traded anyway, you know, and sound like
217 00:48:22,800 --> 00:48:31,410 a smart guy. I'm telling you the reasons why. So that way, you can use that same logic going forward and hopefully present the opportunity for you to have a life
218 00:48:31,410 --> 00:48:37,620 outside the charts. Even though the markets are trading. It doesn't mean go in there. Oh, you know, I got, I gotta get in front of charts and push a button.
219 00:48:37,620 --> 00:48:49,230 They don't who says you got to do that. The Gambler inside of us says that. Okay, so you want to keep the analyst in the driver's seat, okay, and keep the
220 00:48:49,230 --> 00:48:55,860 gambler out of it. He's got to be in the backseat or she's got to be in the backseat. Don't Don't invite them to drive because they'll steer you right into
221 00:48:55,860 --> 00:49:07,470 a tree. Alright, so we're back into that fair pay gap. We're above it. So think here now. Okay. And we'll study in hindsight on Twitter. I guess I'll post
222 00:49:07,470 --> 00:49:15,060 something later on this afternoon. I have lots of work to get done with my private group. Hopefully you found something here today insightful. And I will
223 00:49:15,060 --> 00:49:24,570 try to do this again tomorrow around the 815 time period. We'll meet again. Okay. So I'll talk to you next time. Be safe.