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ICT YT - 2022-05-05 - ICT Mentorship 2022 Episode 23.srt

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2022-05-06 11:26
1 00:00:06,270 --> 00:00:19,440 ICT: Alright folks, take a look at the E Mini, micro NASDAQ 100 index. And shader imbalance we're in here, this is the initial one, you can always imagine,
2 00:00:19,740 --> 00:00:29,160 it could start up into the second one, which it's really as sensitive as done now. So that could be a sell. I'd like to see it come down here, first, outline
3 00:00:29,160 --> 00:00:40,890 this as I go. This is come at the end of the road. For the drop down before it runs, Tuesday's highs, that's what I'm thinking this is FOMC. And we did a few
4 00:00:40,890 --> 00:00:52,410 minutes for it to do its initial ShakeOut. So this is the end of the race, lower s little checkered flag here, notice I have that. So it's not like me talking.
5 00:00:53,670 --> 00:01:04,380 After the fact that we can see I'm doing everything here. Myers we're looking forward to drop down in and run out the Tuesday highs that I was mentioning on
6 00:01:04,740 --> 00:01:14,040 my community post. So I'm always looking for it to trade down here. Now, it could sweep a little bit below that, because to the left of that imbalance
7 00:01:14,070 --> 00:01:25,500 highlighted in turquoise, there's a sell side liquidity pool resting in just below it. But for now, I'm just focusing there, so it could drop down into that
8 00:01:25,500 --> 00:01:36,570 level. And there's a couple of ways to use this information, you can do a trade here with your demo account, compliance reasons, and look forward to run out the
9 00:01:36,570 --> 00:01:48,780 short term low. And or wait for it to potentially trade up into the higher timeframe. Fair value gap. And the reason why you could potentially wait for
10 00:01:48,780 --> 00:01:59,700 that is because it's FOMC has like a knee jerk reaction, kind of like Non Farm Payroll, there's initial way then another leg, like a fake out leg, and then
11 00:01:59,730 --> 00:02:09,720 real setup counts, which is what I'm outlining here in that blue shaded area. So I'm noticing that it's likely to draw down here so I'm drawing this out. So we
12 00:02:09,720 --> 00:02:18,870 can see the diagram is dropping, okay, the idea is to drop down here first is the quick move I'm looking for, then the run through Tuesday's high.
13 00:02:25,650 --> 00:02:36,510 Alright, so it should start dropping in here. I don't want to see it go too much more than that, because that would upset the fair value gap that is not yet
14 00:02:36,510 --> 00:02:47,460 traded into, I think that's going to be the the next real drop. So here's where I'm thinking initially, there sellside resting rate below that low. So you could
15 00:02:47,460 --> 00:02:59,430 be a short here. And your stop would be right above that most recent green candle to the left of where we're at now. And you can see there's no replay
16 00:02:59,430 --> 00:03:10,140 button being used to get a candle or painting, the replay button is dim, it's not even a thing with me. What's not true now is that I did recently in the
17 00:03:10,140 --> 00:03:20,070 mentorship video, use the replay button, but it felt awkward and I just wanted to do it just to be funny. So here is the drop down in here. Now we can revisit
18 00:03:20,070 --> 00:03:30,330 the bottom end of that fear of a gap and bump it into kind of like a Support Resistance idea. That would be a shorting opportunity if it were to do that. And
19 00:03:30,330 --> 00:03:35,580 again, this thought would be placed at the high of the most recent green candle to the left
20 00:03:44,879 --> 00:03:47,909 right there see that? That's a short right there
21 00:03:53,700 --> 00:04:04,110 okay, the market is likely to keep dropping in here I'm looking for that little Bullseye that blue Bullseye right below that short term low. And that blue line
22 00:04:04,110 --> 00:04:16,770 if you notice when I first started the recording here that was really just an order block. So it could bounce there a little bit. But ultimately, my interest
23 00:04:16,770 --> 00:04:29,670 is from where we are now down into that checkered flag area. It doesn't look like I got enough room so I'm gonna probably have to move that over to the right
24 00:04:29,670 --> 00:04:42,210 a little bit. Again, the mindset is are dropping down. Okay, even though it's really initially just ran the Tuesday high but it's shallow. Okay. The
25 00:04:42,210 --> 00:04:53,640 vocabulary I'm using here is running the Tuesday Hi, not sweeping. The Tuesday high. Difference between sweeping would be like what it's done here. That will
26 00:04:53,640 --> 00:05:04,260 be a sweep. That's a real shallow little run above that red line. That's Tuesday's high. Okay, so it's wet. that they were coming back down, post FOMC.
27 00:05:04,530 --> 00:05:12,030 So kind of like, look at this move here we're making. And if it can drop down to that blue shaded area, it might just if I'm wrong, it might just go down to that
28 00:05:12,030 --> 00:05:19,110 little little Bullseye and then rung higher from there, I'm hoping it doesn't do that I want to see a trade down into that blue shaded area, a little checkered
29 00:05:19,110 --> 00:05:28,530 flag is because that's like the end of the race for bears, they get into that, then it should start there, we'll move higher running Tuesday high. Running
30 00:05:28,530 --> 00:05:35,310 Tuesday's high means it runs right over top of it, and it just doesn't look back. Sweeping is where it just goes above or below a low or high, you know, I
31 00:05:35,310 --> 00:05:44,220 mean, like, if we're going to sweep by side, that means is going to go up a little bit, and then go down in reverse. Okay, if I'm saying we're going to run
32 00:05:44,460 --> 00:05:54,540 an old high for relative equal highs, that means we're going to run through it and continue. So that was a little bit of an understanding here what I'm saying
33 00:05:54,540 --> 00:06:02,460 when I say that, I try to pick my words carefully so that we understand the distinction between what I'm expecting as a sweep and reverse back into the
34 00:06:02,460 --> 00:06:11,400 range or expansion move where I think if we can get down here, and I'm gonna scrub this over, because you can see we're getting running out of space here, it
35 00:06:11,400 --> 00:06:31,890 might take a little bit more candles, when I first thought this area this thing I'm telling you, I look like a noob I see these. Alright, so we'll see if we can
36 00:06:31,890 --> 00:06:44,970 drop down into that. And I had to make another video for my mentorship group. So I gotta get started on that one. So here's a bearish order block, it can come
37 00:06:44,970 --> 00:06:47,700 back from a hit that and resume going lower.
38 00:06:52,500 --> 00:06:56,610 Not bad, not bad. Let's see if she loves me.
39 00:07:01,800 --> 00:07:06,210 You can see no replay button. Everything's dynamic here.
40 00:07:14,790 --> 00:07:18,180 Right that the run into that sellside liquidity pool.
41 00:07:24,330 --> 00:07:39,450 Anchor does, here's what we can see visually when it drops below it. Change the color, here's a little bit like you're going to like it's good enough that we
42 00:07:39,450 --> 00:07:57,240 can see it. I'll take this off here. All right. There you go. Now I'll come back to this in a moment. All right. As you can see, the market didn't affect trade
43 00:07:57,240 --> 00:08:05,520 down look at the bodies of the candles respecting that blue shaded area really, really handsome price delivery. And it down a little bit below. But that's fine,
44 00:08:05,550 --> 00:08:12,960 I'm not worried about being that accurate. The main thing is going down into that area, it turns and then runs Tuesday's high, look how much more dynamic
45 00:08:12,960 --> 00:08:24,270 that is. Now, what I did was I took the low at the term after it made its run into that little blue shaded area once it started rallying, and it took out the
46 00:08:24,270 --> 00:08:36,390 swing high around that 13,006 I'm sorry, 13,001 50 basically crossed back over where the fair value gap is that larger one that dropped down into once it
47 00:08:36,390 --> 00:08:47,970 trades above that, then I'm going to use the high initially at the two o'clock hour down to the low post 230. That range, I'm using the Fibonacci to expand up
48 00:08:48,000 --> 00:08:58,560 to a target and it came up to 13,004 37 even. I'm just waiting for it to hit that. And then once it does, then I'll go into the Fibonacci. And I'll show you
49 00:08:58,620 --> 00:09:10,020 what this looked like how I measured it and all that. But hopefully, you can see that it's done the majority of the move, which was outlined on the Community tab
50 00:09:10,020 --> 00:09:21,360 before I did the video. I did the video here, marking it up that we can see it wasn't a replay thing. It wasn't something after the fact. It's something that
51 00:09:21,360 --> 00:09:31,860 I'm teaching you all here. Now the question mark at the bottom lower left hand corner. What that is anchoring is the height that was formed. At two o'clock,
52 00:09:31,890 --> 00:09:39,870 we'll be showing this 1400 here on the chart down to that low where the question mark is so what you're doing is you're going to measurement of the range came
53 00:09:39,870 --> 00:09:49,230 where it's 50% of that. Below 50% is where that fair value gap is. That's in turquoise. So that's the target it's dropping down into it. So it's a matter of
54 00:09:49,230 --> 00:10:11,040 looking at this. And really there's technically all there's 12345 I've 678 There's eight trades in this, this whole entire thing. So once it trades this
55 00:10:11,040 --> 00:10:20,580 level here, I'm looking forward to hit that. And then I'll go in and kind of like show you some things about what I'm referring to as the eight setups. And
56 00:10:20,580 --> 00:10:29,040 this might not be the real setup that you would be looking for, it might be something one of the eight that I'll show you. But that's the unique thing, the
57 00:10:29,040 --> 00:10:35,670 idea that I want you to adopt as a student of mine, I don't want you all thinking, well, we all have to have the same setup. No, you don't have the same
58 00:10:35,790 --> 00:10:45,300 setup. In fact, you're not, you're going to come to the conclusion that, you know, the things you're looking for, are going to be much more important when
59 00:10:45,300 --> 00:10:53,910 it's uniquely selected, not me pushing you into a mold, saying this is how it's going to work every single time just for you, because it's not going to work
60 00:10:53,910 --> 00:11:04,620 that way. So you have to find a way to grow comfortable with the concepts and how that applies to the present market conditions. And how you select your
61 00:11:04,620 --> 00:11:13,650 setup. And I'll show you eight of them in here. That way, you'll know that this is what you're looking for. And it fits your criteria. And you may not take any
62 00:11:13,650 --> 00:11:22,800 of the other seven at the eat. But the main one here is obviously the one I highlighted, it's the one that is the highest form of analysis that we can see
63 00:11:23,220 --> 00:11:31,380 exactly where it's going to draw to before it turns around. So you can couple what I've shown you here with what I've out outright, and Kane told you
64 00:11:31,410 --> 00:11:41,730 basically that I'm looking for the drop down to FOMC at two o'clock, once it drops down into that usually around 230 SP finished its initial leg, where it
65 00:11:41,730 --> 00:11:48,240 prices in whatever it's going to do either a high or low, and it starts to rally. So you can see it's pretty much close to that in terms of algorithmic
66 00:11:48,240 --> 00:11:59,010 delivery, just a little bit past 230. We're about ready to hit that target here. And there she is. Alright, so let's dim that out. And I'll take you over to the
67 00:11:59,010 --> 00:12:08,520 fifth portion. And I'll explain everything to you that way. Alright, so now obviously, I'm going to take you back in, we'll use the fifth year and what I'm
68 00:12:08,520 --> 00:12:11,700 doing is anchoring to the high
69 00:12:13,470 --> 00:12:23,160 down to the low. Now this is the most extreme. Now usually I'll use the highest open or close in the lowest open or close in the price swing, when it's not
70 00:12:23,220 --> 00:12:33,480 expected to have a whole lot of volatility big because it's the FOMC it's more likely to be much more volatile. That means the extreme of the ranges should be
71 00:12:33,480 --> 00:12:40,440 considered that means now I'm going to use the wicks, you get asked a lot of time, you know, in the comments like you know, why does ITC use the wicks and
72 00:12:40,440 --> 00:12:54,270 why to use the valleys and monzi differentiate? I just taught you. Okay, so I will show you two forms of that. And actually, this backwards did did and draw
73 00:12:54,270 --> 00:13:07,350 it from the low up to the high. I'm looking for upside objectives. Okay, so well up to high. Here's one objective. Here's two objectives. And now we're just
74 00:13:07,350 --> 00:13:16,560 falling short of that one. Okay, so that's kind of the extreme target for me today. But if you look at the body to body, it'll make a whole lot more sense in
75 00:13:16,560 --> 00:13:31,170 a moment. There's that target was looking for there. In the earlier portion of the recording. Period, I got initial one here drops down hits the order block,
76 00:13:31,410 --> 00:13:39,240 which is that blue line here, it bounced up into the fair value gap. This is what I was suggesting this is going to be the main ones I would say, run on
77 00:13:39,270 --> 00:13:50,550 liquidity drop down, start to drop, even lower hidden order block, then rallies up hits the fair value gap, that sets the stage for the decline down into the
78 00:13:50,550 --> 00:14:00,240 area I highlighted in advance said this was the end of the road for the bears, starts to rally, comes back down in rallies once more, takes off takes up
79 00:14:00,240 --> 00:14:09,900 Tuesday's high, much more meaningfully. And rallies again, pulled back into an imbalance here rallies again pulls back into an imbalance here after taking our
80 00:14:09,900 --> 00:14:22,080 target and then even continues to go higher from there. Okay, so let's take a look at some of the trades you got the wrong here ahead of FOMC that I would not
81 00:14:22,080 --> 00:14:33,300 count. Okay, that's that's a setup, but that's a Gambler's setup, it's before the FOMC announcement. So we have the drop down, then the fair value gap here.
82 00:14:33,480 --> 00:14:43,830 So that's trade one, the return back to the fair value gap here that's trade two drops down in below here you would close your short if it's a scalp here is a
83 00:14:43,830 --> 00:14:53,070 long idea as a scalp to take us up into asset liquidity resting above this high here into a Faraday get a sense of this short down into the objective I was
84 00:14:53,070 --> 00:15:01,260 looking for. Now right away some of you're thinking man, I'm not Spider Man. How do you expect me to take all these traits I'm not folks I'm not Any one of these
85 00:15:01,260 --> 00:15:11,520 things that I'm outlining here could be a specific setup that fit your unique model. Okay, that meets the criteria that you're looking for then drop down here
86 00:15:11,760 --> 00:15:20,190 that's a buy and you can share it disappear as an order block their rallies up and it comes back down into the order block these two down close candles here
87 00:15:20,310 --> 00:15:29,910 because now this is where I said we were gonna turn and I said we were gonna run Tuesday's highs, and I sweep I'm like, this is going to run them. Okay, so we
88 00:15:29,910 --> 00:15:39,570 ran right over top of them here. So it rallies up comes back down in retracement rallies, again, small little imbalance, you can be a buyer their rallies. And
89 00:15:39,570 --> 00:15:50,040 again in here, this is one that I didn't obviously mention, you see, because I stopped the recording as it ran through here on our objective. Okay. And I think
90 00:15:50,040 --> 00:16:00,180 that is going to be it. So I don't want you thinking, this is an invitation for you tried to trade FOMC or like a Non Farm Payroll event. They're very, very
91 00:16:00,180 --> 00:16:10,170 risky, extremely risky. But they're really fun to go back into and study from a hindsight perspective or if you can watch it live. It's a wonderful case study
92 00:16:10,170 --> 00:16:19,470 that we can look at how liquidity is taken, how it runs to the other extreme of the range and how it starts to deliver institutional order flow. All the down
93 00:16:19,470 --> 00:16:27,570 close candles should be supporting price as it goes up and running out Tuesday's high in a much more meaningful manner. Hopefully you found this one insightful.
94 00:16:27,990 --> 00:16:29,730 Until next time, be safe