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2 |1 |00:00:05,130 ~-~-> 00:00:13,440 |ICT: Hi folks, welcome back. This is episode number 10 of the 2022 ICT mentorship for the YouTube channel. This lecture is going to be teaching
3 |2 |00:00:13,530 ~-~-> 00:00:23,790 |implementing economic calendar events with the open. Alright, so the economic calendar many of you probably don't even consider looking at this, but it's
4 |3 |00:00:23,790 ~-~-> 00:00:32,820 |important if you're going to be learning how to speculate, study these markets. Certainly, if you're ever going to consider putting live funds in here, you
5 |4 |00:00:32,820 ~-~-> 00:00:42,600 |really want to know what this calendar says for the day you're gonna be trading. Otherwise, you could be surprised, unfortunately, adversely with a sudden rush
6 |5 |00:00:42,600 ~-~-> 00:00:55,110 |of volatility that you wouldn't otherwise expect. This is Thursday's economic calendar for Thursday, February 17. And not all of these things are going to be
7 |6 |00:00:55,110 ~-~-> 00:01:06,810 |heavy hitters for stock indices, but most of them are. And what I'm showing you here is what I teach all my students, I go to Forex factory comm I use their
8 |7 |00:01:06,810 ~-~-> 00:01:16,350 |economic calendar, it's not the only one you can use. It's whatever you like, I like the color scheme, they use it as a personal preference, you can pick any
9 |8 |00:01:16,350 ~-~-> 00:01:28,350 |economic calendar, they're all going to pretty much say the same thing. Here, the medium impact events are like orange, low impact are yellow. And anything
10 |9 |00:01:28,350 ~-~-> 00:01:38,760 |that's red, which is not being shown here would be like a high impact news driver. So when we look at the stock indices, the reason why I teach you 830 In
11 |10 |00:01:38,760 ~-~-> 00:01:48,120 |the morning, like that's your beginning time to start looking at or crosshairs time. The news embargo lifts at this time at 830. Typically, there's a bunch of
12 |11 |00:01:48,120 ~-~-> 00:02:03,690 |news events that are being ushered into the marketplace at that time. Now, some of these reports, or speeches or data points, they may be used as a smokescreen,
13 |12 |00:02:04,590 ~-~-> 00:02:16,140 |they may be used as a catalyst to have price go up or down at the time of their release. Other instances, like I'm going to teach tonight, usually there's going
14 |13 |00:02:16,140 ~-~-> 00:02:30,090 |to be a build up, or a dropping down in price right before the report comes out. And then the real move starts to ensue. Okay, so it'll make more sense as I get
15 |14 |00:02:30,090 ~-~-> 00:02:41,550 |into the actual teachings. Okay, so we're looking at the NASDAQ daily chart. This is the trading view continuous charts. That way, you'll know what I'm
16 |15 |00:02:41,550 ~-~-> 00:02:50,790 |looking at here is the one we've been working with in this mentorship. So the daily chart, when I'm talking about power three, a lot of comments came in the
17 |16 |00:02:50,790 ~-~-> 00:02:58,410 |previous video, mentioning how it was confusing to them, because obviously, they're new, they just found me they don't know what I'm talking about. When I
18 |17 |00:02:58,410 ~-~-> 00:03:07,170 |say power three, I actually have a teaching in the YouTube channel, so you can look it up and study it. But I'll give you a little bit more amplification here.
19 |18 |00:03:07,500 ~-~-> 00:03:20,730 |Also kind of like helped bridge the gaps in your understanding about daily bias. Because if I could tell you what was the most requested question. Over the years
20 |19 |00:03:20,730 ~-~-> 00:03:32,550 |since I've been mentoring people, without a doubt, absolutely. Without a doubt, the number one question I get is ICT can you please teach me the daily bias? Can
21 |20 |00:03:32,550 ~-~-> 00:03:41,670 |you tell me if it's going to be an up day or a down day? And I'm going to teach you here in it. This is my honest to God's truth. Okay, I'm never gonna be able
22 |21 |00:03:41,670 ~-~-> 00:03:48,510 |to do it any easier than this, okay? You just have to study price action, and you'll see it for yourself after a while. But this is really all I teach my
23 |22 |00:03:48,510 ~-~-> 00:03:59,640 |students. And it is nothing more secret to it. This is it. Okay, it's just the brass tacks of looking at what the daily range is likely to form. So right away,
24 |23 |00:03:59,640 ~-~-> 00:04:09,270 |we're looking at the daily chart. And as I mentioned, in the previous episode, I outlined this high here, and this low net was the range we were in and the 50
25 |24 |00:04:09,270 ~-~-> 00:04:21,750 |level was equilibrium. So again, above equilibrium is what the premium market and below 50% is a discount market. So we trade it back up into the top end of
26 |25 |00:04:21,750 ~-~-> 00:04:32,400 |the range between this low and this high. And between these two levels here. Remember, I gave you this low and this high. That's a imbalance. Okay, it's fair
27 |26 |00:04:32,400 ~-~-> 00:04:43,200 |Vega. This market was down in a discount initially, after we had the indecisive candle, go back and watch the ninth episode. If you haven't watched that one
28 |27 |00:04:43,200 ~-~-> 00:04:52,530 |yet. You're watching this one. It's going to feel like even more confusion. But we had an indecisive candle here. And we were in a discount, even though I
29 |28 |00:04:52,530 ~-~-> 00:04:56,430 |believe and I've been telling my students that I believe we're gonna clean out these lows down here.
30 |29 |00:04:57,870 ~-~-> 00:05:08,460 |We went to a discount rate To the dealing range between this high and that low. So below it, we're at discount, and we have an imbalance. So it's likely to do
31 |30 |00:05:08,460 ~-~-> 00:05:20,220 |what go back up and rebalance this before going back down. Listen to what I said in episode number nine, I said, even if we trade back up into this range,
32 |31 |00:05:20,220 ~-~-> 00:05:30,390 |there's trades you can take, even if we believe that it's going to go below those lows. That's me tipping my hand to you. I'm not trying to provide you
33 |32 |00:05:30,390 ~-~-> 00:05:38,400 |signals, I'm not going to tell you buy here, sell here, put your stop here, take it, I'm not, I'm not doing that. In a community tab on my YouTube channel,
34 |33 |00:05:39,600 ~-~-> 00:05:50,250 |probably once a week, I'm going to point out something in the chart, right before it happens. And I want you to try to study it. You may not be able to see
35 |34 |00:05:50,250 ~-~-> 00:05:59,670 |it real time, you may miss it, come to YouTube channel after work or whatever. Maybe you're sleeping, and you couldn't see it at the time. But still go through
36 |35 |00:05:59,670 ~-~-> 00:06:10,950 |your charts using the information I'm providing you. I get asked all the time, can you please put a date and time reference in the post? I forget, I try to
37 |36 |00:06:10,980 ~-~-> 00:06:18,960 |remember doing it. When I wake up, I'm going to post anything. But something happens. And I've seen the chart not hurt mostly want to put everything in post.
38 |37 |00:06:19,380 ~-~-> 00:06:31,410 |I forgot it. So I apologize for that. It's a work in progress, folks. So if we look at the reference points of it being in a premium market or discount market,
39 |38 |00:06:31,650 ~-~-> 00:06:41,310 |but then we have this imbalance and we have a bias that is likely to go down and take out these lows. So what do we said here? In short, the markets been going
40 |39 |00:06:41,310 ~-~-> 00:06:50,190 |lower? Yes, we took out some sell stops below this low with the sell side liquidity being taken out here. Then a natural retracement, which is reasonable,
41 |40 |00:06:50,700 ~-~-> 00:06:58,170 |then we start to decline. And then we come back up one more time failure swing doesn't go above that high. And it breaks down and creates an imbalance when it
42 |41 |00:06:58,170 ~-~-> 00:07:11,700 |takes out this short term low. Wow. That's kind of like the model I'm teaching you. Yes. Now, what's the framework here we rallied broke below a short term low
43 |42 |00:07:11,970 ~-~-> 00:07:26,130 |with the model suggesting that these lows may be taken out. So any rally or up close candle or candles should be viewed as a potential shorting candidate. Now
44 |43 |00:07:26,190 ~-~-> 00:07:40,440 |bring in the imbalance. We traded up into the imbalance one more day we swept up but not by much. Then the next day we open rally just a little bit and then
45 |44 |00:07:40,800 ~-~-> 00:07:52,680 |plunge. We took out the previous day's low and the day before it's law. So both of these daily lows have been cleaned out. Now this one is the next one. Then
46 |45 |00:07:53,070 ~-~-> 00:08:07,890 |down here. So when I talk about power three, I'm specifically dealing with this timeframe, the daily chart, if you consider where the market opens, say this is
47 |46 |00:08:07,890 ~-~-> 00:08:14,340 |the opening price. In a daily range, if you're expecting it to go down, or maybe you weren't expecting it to go on, you're just looking at the price in your
48 |47 |00:08:14,340 ~-~-> 00:08:25,710 |chart. And you see that the open was here it rallied a little bit and it went down and then closed near the low. Now, that's a rather simplistic overview,
49 |48 |00:08:26,130 ~-~-> 00:08:36,480 |just making it very plain, nothing terribly exciting about that. But when you really start to consider it, it is really exciting. Because this is the market
50 |49 |00:08:36,480 ~-~-> 00:08:50,160 |right here. If you understand this, and you can study a daily chart, daily bias will become easier for you if you start implementing it with this mindset. So if
51 |50 |00:08:50,160 ~-~-> 00:08:59,880 |we're bearish, okay, if we're bearish on the market, we're going to anticipate the daily ranges are each one of these candles, doing this very thing here, open
52 |51 |00:09:00,420 ~-~-> 00:09:10,470 |a rally, not much of a rally but it can make a large wick doesn't make a difference. But the general premise is it goes up just to go down and it closes
53 |52 |00:09:10,470 ~-~-> 00:09:19,260 |down near its low when it's bearish. Obviously this would be reversed where the open would be down here near the low and the close would be near the high of the
54 |53 |00:09:19,260 ~-~-> 00:09:28,710 |daily candle if it's bullish. But not every single candle in a series of the entire price swing is going to be all up close candle when you're bullish.
55 |54 |00:09:29,850 ~-~-> 00:09:34,830 |Conversely, not every candle is going to be a down closed candle when you're bearish.
56 |55 |00:09:36,600 ~-~-> 00:09:44,160 |But I've already taught you when you have these sustained price swings on the higher timeframe, you're not seeing a lot of up close candles when it's bearish.
57 |56 |00:09:45,000 ~-~-> 00:09:53,880 |You're not seeing a lot of down close candles when it's bullish. But contrast that with what you may be feeling when you're looking at price. You'll make a
58 |57 |00:09:53,880 ~-~-> 00:10:02,850 |big deal out of one down day when you've been bullish and it completely takes you out of your game. I can't determine bias, I don't know what's going on. It
59 |58 |00:10:02,850 ~-~-> 00:10:14,910 |is always tricking me. I felt that too in the 90s. I know what it feels like. But let's take a closer look at this. This is the chart that I used to trade
60 |59 |00:10:15,090 ~-~-> 00:10:28,050 |back in 1992. The classic open high, low and close bar, which is what I'm showing you here. Now with this chart, it made perfect sense to me. And if my
61 |60 |00:10:28,050 ~-~-> 00:10:39,510 |eyes were not as poor as they are now, because I'm aging, and I've been looking at computer screens for 30 plus years, now, it's worn them down. So obviously,
62 |61 |00:10:39,510 ~-~-> 00:10:48,720 |candlesticks are much more preferred way of looking at it, because it's thicker, you can see the the opening close relationship as I'm teaching you here a lot
63 |62 |00:10:48,720 ~-~-> 00:10:58,650 |easier versus this, you have to strain to see where the openings on this candle is to the left of the candle or even candle it's a bar. So to the left the bar
64 |63 |00:10:58,710 ~-~-> 00:11:10,080 |is the open it trades down creates the low rallies and closes near the high, you see that same thing here, it opens trades down, goes up and closes above the
65 |64 |00:11:10,080 ~-~-> 00:11:18,480 |opening but in the upper portion of the daily range, then we have a high where it doesn't really matter where it closes. And then it's likely to do what come
66 |65 |00:11:18,480 ~-~-> 00:11:29,670 |back in, rebalance this. It'll make sense in a moment. It opens here, small little rally up creates this very thing here on this day, it opened small little
67 |66 |00:11:29,670 ~-~-> 00:11:44,940 |rally up and then down overlapping this daily bar. If we look at this relationship over here, we have this one single pass with that bar range between
68 |67 |00:11:44,940 ~-~-> 00:11:54,090 |this candles low and this candles high. That's our favorite idea. The market can trade back up into it and look where it closes right on the highs. In the next
69 |68 |00:11:54,090 ~-~-> 00:12:05,550 |candle. It's back and forth, works both sides of the range. But what is our bias without hint that the bias is bearish? We're looking for these lows to be taken
70 |69 |00:12:05,550 ~-~-> 00:12:14,820 |out. So the only thing we were doing was coming back up to rebalance this then go lower. So once we went back to the top of the range did this candle or bar
71 |70 |00:12:14,850 ~-~-> 00:12:28,650 |touch this candles or bars low? No. Just fell short of it. This wiped back and forth. So now this range here is completely balanced. So there's no reason for
72 |71 |00:12:28,650 ~-~-> 00:12:36,810 |this price to hang around. Now, it could have went a little bit higher today and I was waiting for that to potentially happen. But I'm not abandoned my
73 |72 |00:12:36,810 ~-~-> 00:12:47,910 |bearishness for price to go down here. All my students knew that this movement here we have the open the rally up, fade, comes back down and closes on the low.
74 |73 |00:12:48,000 ~-~-> 00:13:00,330 |That's this pattern right here. Power three is accumulation, manipulation, distribution. Okay, that's the three components. The power aspect is if you
75 |74 |00:13:00,330 ~-~-> 00:13:11,730 |understand those relationships on what the daily range is doing the open one a day that's bearish, okay, the open and anything above it, that is accumulation
76 |75 |00:13:12,180 ~-~-> 00:13:21,630 |of shorts. Now, it's not limited to just open and above. That's the That's where smart money. And people like myself and my students, that's where we're aiming
77 |76 |00:13:21,630 ~-~-> 00:13:31,920 |the Enter getting short. It can be whatever the range is, this is important because my students are actually going to smile when they get this to the open
78 |77 |00:13:32,040 ~-~-> 00:13:42,450 |to the high. Whatever that range is you take that range and you subtract it from the opening price. That is your opening range. That's where your fair value
79 |78 |00:13:42,450 ~-~-> 00:13:51,180 |gaps. That's where your stop rates are going to happen. That's where your optimal trade entry is going to happen. Every potential shorting candidate
80 |79 |00:13:51,960 ~-~-> 00:14:03,660 |whatever system approach that I teach even in my paid mentorship, every premium array, okay, that's what I teach it as every single one of them will reside and
81 |80 |00:14:03,660 ~-~-> 00:14:11,100 |form in the range between the open and it's high. In other words, if you're watching price and you're bearish, the day opens up, and then it rallies up,
82 |81 |00:14:11,130 ~-~-> 00:14:20,520 |that's a Judas swing, the range from the opening price up to that high. That range is what you project below the opening price. That is your opening range.
83 |82 |00:14:21,330 ~-~-> 00:14:26,580 |When I say opening range, that's opening range. So what that does is gives me a
84 |83 |00:14:29,100 ~-~-> 00:14:40,110 |an area which to bracket out how much leeway I can give the market when it starts to go below the opening price and still take a favorable entry because
85 |84 |00:14:40,110 ~-~-> 00:14:49,260 |power three is I'm bearish. I'm expecting the market to open and rally above if I can get something on short there. That's the ideal scenario. But I may not be
86 |85 |00:14:49,260 ~-~-> 00:14:56,880 |able to do it. Or I may take a trade early or just take a trade and I get stopped out. It's gonna happen. But then it breaks down blew up in price. Does
87 |86 |00:14:56,880 ~-~-> 00:15:03,660 |that completely ruin the day for me? Sometimes it'll just tear off in it. I can't catch it and doesn't give me a set up. And I just miss it, and you can't
88 |87 |00:15:03,660 ~-~-> 00:15:12,810 |taste it and don't worry about it. But don't be upset, go back in your back testing. And you'll see that there's lots of opportunities coming in just below
89 |88 |00:15:12,810 ~-~-> 00:15:20,970 |the opening price. This is called close proximity entries. This is what I promised in this mentorship on YouTube. Teaching you in the mentorship
90 |89 |00:15:20,970 ~-~-> 00:15:30,930 |community. I already know most of you have recently found me and there's been a lot of you that just came on appreciate all of you joining me. But you don't
91 |90 |00:15:30,930 ~-~-> 00:15:38,760 |know all the things that I've been teaching on this YouTube channel. So you feel like you're drinking from a firehose right now and it can feel like it's tearing
92 |91 |00:15:38,760 ~-~-> 00:15:45,510 |your face off, because so much information all at one time. And these your head spinning like this guy keeps talking, I don't understand get to the point. The
93 |92 |00:15:45,510 ~-~-> 00:15:53,730 |point is, is you need to have layered understanding. And if you're not going to be patient and go through the content properly, I'm not going to help you, I'm
94 |93 |00:15:53,730 ~-~-> 00:15:59,910 |going to frustrate you. And you'll probably come back to me later on and then learn properly and wish you would have stayed and did the right way the first
95 |94 |00:15:59,910 ~-~-> 00:16:11,580 |time. But that's for you to determine on your own. Having the opening range. When you're bearish, wherever the highest from the opening project that down,
96 |95 |00:16:11,730 ~-~-> 00:16:23,220 |your cell setups are going to form in that. That is accumulation of shorts. The manipulation is the initial rally up, that's the sucker play. That's typically
97 |96 |00:16:23,250 ~-~-> 00:16:33,750 |the breakout artists thinking, Oh, it's going to go higher. No, it only goes up just to go down, that's a fake run, then it goes lower, creates the low of the
98 |97 |00:16:33,750 ~-~-> 00:16:44,340 |day, and then closes near the low today. So between where the low of the day is and where it closes, that's distribution, what's being distributed, smart
99 |98 |00:16:44,340 ~-~-> 00:16:56,250 |money's short positions. So they're selling at the opening above or just below it. riding out the daily range. When it creates the low of the day. How do you
100 |99 |00:16:56,250 ~-~-> 00:17:06,060 |know when the low days formed? Well, I've taught you time references. So if price has been really taking a beating going lower, and you're getting towards
101 |100 |00:17:06,060 ~-~-> 00:17:15,030 |the end of the day, like 333 45, something like that, it's probably really close to the low not all the time, sometimes it creates a roof, this sudden
102 |101 |00:17:15,030 ~-~-> 00:17:23,790 |continuation. And if you're not expecting it, or if you're offside, it can be bad. But if it's one side, it's really fun to be a part of that. But generally,
103 |102 |00:17:23,790 ~-~-> 00:17:31,410 |it's the last portion of the trading day. And it'll create some kind of a low, and then wherever it closes between that low where it closes, that's where the
104 |103 |00:17:31,410 ~-~-> 00:17:41,460 |distribution cycle is occurring. That part is not that important. The main thing is understanding what does this candle had the highest probability in terms of
105 |104 |00:17:41,460 ~-~-> 00:17:52,740 |forming an open rally sell off and close down on its low? Or is it likely to create an opening trade lower first, then rally and close near the highs? Take
106 |105 |00:17:52,740 ~-~-> 00:18:00,600 |the let's take the clothes out. Okay, I don't want you thinking you have to know or be able to predict the closing price that's more advanced. You don't even
107 |106 |00:18:00,600 ~-~-> 00:18:09,030 |need that to be profitable. You just need to know is this daily range more likely to expand higher or lower than the opening price? That's it. That's all
108 |107 |00:18:09,030 ~-~-> 00:18:20,970 |you have to do. That's the key to bias. Now, how do you know what the bias is going to be? Most likely not everyday bias? Most likely, what's the bias going
109 |108 |00:18:20,970 ~-~-> 00:18:29,400 |to be? Well, let's go back to this lower here. It creates a swing low, it means a low with a higher low to the right of it and a higher low to the left of it.
110 |109 |00:18:29,400 ~-~-> 00:18:37,170 |So it's three candles that make up a swing low. You do not need a Williams fractal. That's way too many candles and you've missed the move. Okay, you need
111 |110 |00:18:37,170 ~-~-> 00:18:45,570 |that. You're disrespectful to the gentleman. But that's nonsense. You don't need that, okay? You only need three candles. Once you get a swing low or swing high
112 |111 |00:18:45,600 ~-~-> 00:18:54,810 |and you had the proper context and you know you're looking for that's it, you go in and start hunting. Now watch what happens. We have a swing low form. The very
113 |112 |00:18:54,810 ~-~-> 00:19:06,300 |next candle, we have an opening it trades way down and then comes back up and closes right near the highs. Is that the opposite of this candle? Yeah, but it's
114 |113 |00:19:06,300 ~-~-> 00:19:12,120 |got a whole lot of movement below the opening price. So something just took place down here.
115 |114 |00:19:13,500 ~-~-> 00:19:22,320 |After this swing low was formed, did this candle or bar go lower than that one? No. I promise I'm going to switch the candles. But I just want to show you from
116 |115 |00:19:22,320 ~-~-> 00:19:33,270 |this perspective because this is what we were forced to learn on back in the old days. Okay, back in the dinosaur time. So the rally up on this candle here in
117 |116 |00:19:33,270 ~-~-> 00:19:41,550 |closing on the high that supports this as a swing low because it didn't take out the lower low right here in the middle between this low in this low. This is the
118 |117 |00:19:41,550 ~-~-> 00:19:53,850 |lowest low of three candles or price bars. The next day, we have a big washout from the open trading down and then it closed on the high. So the next day we're
119 |118 |00:19:53,850 ~-~-> 00:20:03,720 |likely to go what into this area here. Is that a fair value gap? Sure it is What's the daily bias likely to be bullish? That means it's going to do the
120 |119 |00:20:03,720 ~-~-> 00:20:12,180 |opposite of this is going to open near the low, and then rally and expand higher? Will it close on the high? I don't know. It could be I don't need to, I
121 |120 |00:20:12,180 ~-~-> 00:20:21,360 |only need to open and start to rally and get up in this area here. That's an opportunity. That's a trade. Does it do it? Yes. But now, when we traded up into
122 |121 |00:20:21,360 ~-~-> 00:20:30,570 |this area, look what happens next day, you might be expecting an open rally close high. It doesn't give you that. So that could be a day where you missed an
123 |122 |00:20:30,570 ~-~-> 00:20:41,790 |opportunity or you took a loss, no bomb. next trading day here. What are we seeing? We're seeing the market retrace back down into this run? How far can it
124 |123 |00:20:41,790 ~-~-> 00:20:51,300 |go down? Well look at your high down to your low equilibrium, it's probably going to go below equilibrium to do what to offer the market a discount, the
125 |124 |00:20:51,300 ~-~-> 00:20:59,160 |market does what it goes down below it provides in the discount. Once it gets there, our mind, we're thinking it's going to be the opposite of this is going
126 |125 |00:20:59,160 ~-~-> 00:21:11,370 |to be the open near the low and expand higher, that's power three, it's going to be accumulation of Long's at the low and then rally higher. We have it right
127 |126 |00:21:11,370 ~-~-> 00:21:20,130 |there. It opens near the low rally and closes on the high. The next day, same thing opens on the low rallies and closes on the high. Now we've gone deeper
128 |127 |00:21:20,130 ~-~-> 00:21:30,180 |into this area here and a small little range but it's still the same function of power three accumulation, which is open near the low trade down and close high
129 |128 |00:21:30,180 ~-~-> 00:21:40,260 |on the daily range. Next candle same thing opens trades down accumulates Long's trades higher same thing here what says it opens trades down trades higher until
130 |129 |00:21:40,260 ~-~-> 00:21:52,050 |we do what? We take out this short term high. See that? Then we can get a retracement lower or consolidation. We get both small little retracement and
131 |130 |00:21:52,050 ~-~-> 00:22:03,480 |consolidation next candle power three delivering for accumulation of Long's next candle consolidation might be they took a loss, let's be real. Next candle.
132 |131 |00:22:03,540 ~-~-> 00:22:11,010 |What's the bias? What are these over here? Their relative equal highs, their stops resting above that that's by side liquidity. What's it drawing up to?
133 |132 |00:22:11,070 ~-~-> 00:22:18,960 |We've already taken on this high. What's gonna go up to here likely right? Because we've already taken out sell stops below here with this drop. And we
134 |133 |00:22:18,960 ~-~-> 00:22:27,060 |keep proving it's going higher. So where's it likely to go above here. So until we get to that point, we keep thinking the opposite of what we're showing here.
135 |134 |00:22:27,660 ~-~-> 00:22:37,110 |An open near the low and close on the high power three accumulation of Long's distribution of Long's at the close the next day, indecisive candle, okay, no
136 |135 |00:22:37,110 ~-~-> 00:22:45,090 |big deal. Next candle, we open trade down. Same thing we're looking for buys. The whole time we're looking for buys in here, you might get stopped out you
137 |136 |00:22:45,090 ~-~-> 00:22:54,120 |might have a losing trade, but you're not abandoning the bullish bias until we get above these highs, then we have to study it does it want to run higher? Once
138 |137 |00:22:54,120 ~-~-> 00:23:02,040 |it clears these highs? Does it keep showing and want to go higher? Well, we had a nice run here, the next candle here, nice run here, small little indecisive
139 |138 |00:23:02,040 ~-~-> 00:23:09,810 |candle there. But then we go back in the same cycle again, it's expanding and accelerating higher. Each day, we're looking for Long's opening near the low
140 |139 |00:23:09,840 ~-~-> 00:23:20,070 |trades below the opening a little bit and then rallies and closes near the high. That's bias that sticking to your bias. And the same thing is done over here on
141 |140 |00:23:20,070 ~-~-> 00:23:29,790 |opposite. We have imbalance here. And I promise after this, I'll change the candlesticks. You guys are probably going nuts right now. Fair, right? You got
142 |141 |00:23:29,820 ~-~-> 00:23:37,830 |we trade up into it. So once we trade into what do we expect in the markets? Do I trade deck lower? So if we're trading back lower, we're gonna be looking for
143 |142 |00:23:37,830 ~-~-> 00:23:46,770 |this pattern open rally accumulation of shorts distribution at the lows, what are you distributing the short positions they've accumulated above, and we're at
144 |143 |00:23:46,770 ~-~-> 00:23:56,100 |the opening price. So in this case, what do we have? We have the open, it rallies up to go short. And then trades down closest look just like this is
145 |144 |00:23:56,100 ~-~-> 00:24:04,290 |here. See that? The next candle? You're expecting the same thing? does it deliver that? No, you might take a loss that day to okay, no big deal, it's
146 |145 |00:24:04,290 ~-~-> 00:24:08,130 |likely to go where here's where the sell side is now.
147 |146 |00:24:09,539 ~-~-> 00:24:21,239 |Each candle open rally close down on low open rally closed down in the low open way back into this one. And then still closes lower than the open but still nice
148 |147 |00:24:21,239 ~-~-> 00:24:32,819 |range down. Same thing here opens rally sells off. Next candle opens, sells off, then comes back in overlaps it and then we have a potential key reversal. Then
149 |148 |00:24:32,819 ~-~-> 00:24:41,969 |we have back and forth price action where you can probably get beat up in balance, it trades up into that. And then we go into that area where we're at
150 |149 |00:24:41,969 ~-~-> 00:24:52,769 |now. So let's go to a candlestick and it's a lot easier to see it this way. But this function of power three is how I teach the bias. And I also teach how to
151 |150 |00:24:52,769 ~-~-> 00:25:03,179 |submit to the daily range. You have to learn how to hold to the close. If you're going to just day trade and you're not really participating in the sustained
152 |151 |00:25:03,179 ~-~-> 00:25:11,639 |moves that's made available in these daily ranges like today. I mean, look at this move here. That's nice. Many of you probably took shorts. Maybe maybe some
153 |152 |00:25:11,639 ~-~-> 00:25:18,509 |of you took Long's I got some people put in comments in the previous video, saying, you know, I saw a pair of a gap at this price at this time for a
154 |153 |00:25:18,509 ~-~-> 00:25:28,499 |bullish, it's not borscht, we're not buying we're our bias is not bullish, it's bearish, it's already changed at the top end, fair Vega. And it's likely to go
155 |154 |00:25:28,499 ~-~-> 00:25:40,439 |lower now, taking out the sell side and attacking the sell side over here. Okay. All right, let's drop down to an hourly chart. And that fair value gap, the high
156 |155 |00:25:40,439 ~-~-> 00:25:50,849 |and the low levels. That's what's being shown here, right there. And these annotations are obviously from what you saw on the episode nine. So watch what
157 |156 |00:25:50,849 ~-~-> 00:25:59,279 |happens, the market trades down, find some support at the low end the fair value gap, then rallies back up to the high end of the fair value gap, and then breaks
158 |157 |00:25:59,999 ~-~-> 00:26:11,879 |right before midnight on the 17th. And then we consolidate trade back up into what what is this? What's this right here. It's a fair value. price goes up
159 |158 |00:26:11,879 ~-~-> 00:26:26,699 |rebalances. That there, and it's dealing it what time of day. Not New York, overnight, European london session. That's how you can use that model, the same
160 |159 |00:26:26,699 ~-~-> 00:26:34,829 |model, you can use it in Asian session, you generate a lot of movement, because it's typically not a lot of movement in that time of day. But you can trade it
161 |160 |00:26:34,829 ~-~-> 00:26:42,629 |in London clothes, you can trade it in, obviously, the New York open, like I'm teaching you and London Open London Open, if you know you're dealing with a
162 |161 |00:26:42,629 ~-~-> 00:26:54,359 |daily bias, you can catch enormous moves, enormous news. But sometimes you're gonna have to weigh out a lot of give and take back and forth, kind of like
163 |162 |00:26:54,359 ~-~-> 00:27:04,259 |today, where the market rebounds here and in consolidate and waiting for a little bit of a push higher than the news came out. Okay, so I'm kind of,
164 |163 |00:27:04,589 ~-~-> 00:27:14,309 |hopefully clear that up for you now. Alright, Kitimat typing, I'm taking a look at this imbalance here, we rode up into that rebalancing all this movement down,
165 |164 |00:27:14,309 ~-~-> 00:27:24,839 |remember that paint roller analogy I gave you, the paint was applied to the wall going down, but it all this movement was given to that one single candle,
166 |165 |00:27:25,079 ~-~-> 00:27:35,669 |there's going to be little porce places in prices between the high and the low, where the market wasn't efficiently offered. For Buyers, there wasn't much time
167 |166 |00:27:35,909 ~-~-> 00:27:46,199 |and back and forth pricing to give buyers an opportunity to get in there and participate. So an efficient market will see the market go back up and reprice
168 |167 |00:27:46,199 ~-~-> 00:27:55,469 |that so it's down. And then right back up, like paint being applied to a roller on a wall, you want to make sure you go back and forth to the posit the paint
169 |168 |00:27:55,709 ~-~-> 00:28:04,379 |evenly. So there's an even distribution. So again, the background on this chart, that's the wall. And every one of these candles is a paint roller. And whenever
170 |169 |00:28:04,379 ~-~-> 00:28:12,389 |you see these big long drawn out candles, there's a strong tendency, not all the time, but there's a strong tendency for the price to go right back up and
171 |170 |00:28:12,389 ~-~-> 00:28:23,999 |overlap over that side, that entire range. Same thing over here. We have the market dropped down creates a fair value gap here, doesn't it? Take out some
172 |171 |00:28:23,999 ~-~-> 00:28:34,349 |lows over here? Yes, there's displacement. And then you can have an order to get in short here. But then watch what happens. This little pump up, that might be
173 |172 |00:28:34,349 ~-~-> 00:28:44,189 |scary, it could have stopped you out if it went higher. That's the risk in this folks, I'm not going to give you a silver bullet that removes losing trades, I
174 |173 |00:28:44,189 ~-~-> 00:28:51,929 |lose trades to you're going to miss moves, I miss moves, okay, you're going to read it wrong. I read it wrong sometimes. Okay, I'm not perfect. But I'm giving
175 |174 |00:28:51,929 ~-~-> 00:29:02,819 |you tools and processes to help you determine where the most likely scenario is going to be. And then you just work those statistical odds and hopefully with
176 |175 |00:29:02,849 ~-~-> 00:29:08,699 |sound money management, which I'll cover, which will hopefully get you to the winner's circle more often than not.
177 |176 |00:29:10,200 ~-~-> 00:29:19,530 |Alright, so we have the morning session starting before 830, we have a rally up and then it breaks lower. In this area here, we're going to drop down to a lower
178 |177 |00:29:19,530 ~-~-> 00:29:29,580 |timeframe. But before I do, I want to give you a little bit more details. Think about what I've taught you so far in this teaching for power three, the
179 |178 |00:29:29,580 ~-~-> 00:29:39,270 |accumulation, manipulation and distribution cycle of the daily range. If we are trading near the high end of that fair value gap on a daily chart, that's what
180 |179 |00:29:39,270 ~-~-> 00:29:47,220 |that level is. Okay, let me just drop down to a lower timeframe chart. So with this 15 minute timeframe chart, and I apologize the charts a little bit shifted.
181 |180 |00:29:47,220 ~-~-> 00:29:59,070 |It's still the same chart at this added annotations. The idea is we're expecting this power three formation where it's open, rally, create the high of the day,
182 |181 |00:29:59,400 ~-~-> 00:30:08,640 |sell off Close near the low, that's what we're looking for. Why would that bias be expected on this day, because we worked the upper end of that fair value gap
183 |182 |00:30:08,640 ~-~-> 00:30:18,900 |on a daily chart, then we had multiple shifts in market structure bearishly when we already have a bearish bias on the daily chart anyway. So it gives you a high
184 |183 |00:30:18,900 ~-~-> 00:30:29,670 |probability that this day is going to be a down closed day, it may not close on the low, it might just be a big down move. And that's all you need. You just
185 |184 |00:30:29,670 ~-~-> 00:30:40,590 |need movement. So this level here, it's dashed. That's the midnight New York opening price. This is what I'm referring to when I'm looking at the opening for
186 |185 |00:30:40,590 ~-~-> 00:30:50,880 |power three, one a daily chart, that price right there at midnight. Look what's occurring. That right there is equivalent to this little tick on this diagram
187 |186 |00:30:50,880 ~-~-> 00:31:01,200 |here. It opens, it trades above the opening, just like that candle does on a daily chart. It opens and goes higher. You want to be selling short here. Why
188 |187 |00:31:01,200 ~-~-> 00:31:09,660 |would you want to go short here? Well, it went back up in there and redelivered the down stroke on that paintbrush or, or roller on the wall. Well, now it's
189 |188 |00:31:09,660 ~-~-> 00:31:18,570 |going back up, when it's going up like that. It feels unnatural to go short, like you don't want to sell short, it's like this thing's going up. Why would I
190 |189 |00:31:18,570 ~-~-> 00:31:29,250 |want to go in here and go short. That's the benefit of studying old data. And then reading price studying in real time, without taking any demo trades without
191 |190 |00:31:29,250 ~-~-> 00:31:37,560 |trying to pick the you know, the targets and forget all that. You want to practice for months, reading the tape, studying price action, watching it, even
192 |191 |00:31:37,560 ~-~-> 00:31:45,120 |if you have to watch it with trading views market replay function, there's nothing inherently wrong with it. If that's all you have, you can't watch it
193 |192 |00:31:45,120 ~-~-> 00:31:53,280 |live. But it is altogether something different and much more beneficial if you can watch the actual live data. So as I mentioned, in my own paid mentorship, I
194 |193 |00:31:53,280 ~-~-> 00:32:01,500 |always counsel my students to if they had the means to do so invest in like, like I have Camtasia Camtasia is what I use to make these videos. It's through
195 |194 |00:32:01,500 ~-~-> 00:32:10,080 |TechSmith and text method, you can Google them, it's pretty inexpensive, it's easy platform to use. And I have had had wonderful results with it, I don't have
196 |195 |00:32:10,080 ~-~-> 00:32:18,150 |any complaints have done all the upgrades every time they have it, it's really good. If you have a job, or if you have a business that you're running, or if
197 |196 |00:32:18,150 ~-~-> 00:32:26,070 |you go to school, or if you just got to sleep, if the time zones don't line up for you, you can set up a recording and just let it record for eight hours.
198 |197 |00:32:26,280 ~-~-> 00:32:34,830 |It'll do it. And as long as you have space in your computer, it'll do it. And then you can go back and literally play that time, real time and watch the
199 |198 |00:32:34,830 ~-~-> 00:32:44,670 |candles pain. Unlike trading views replay function where it doesn't give you the ebb and flow of the candlesticks forming, it's just basically the opening, and
200 |199 |00:32:44,670 ~-~-> 00:32:53,640 |then a closing of what the candle did. It's kind of clunky, and wouldn't it doesn't really give you that organic feel of the candlesticks actually forming
201 |200 |00:32:53,670 ~-~-> 00:33:05,670 |real time. Whereas if you recorded your screen doing it, then there it is. Don't worry about your screen burn in time either Camtasia will record the screen. If
202 |201 |00:33:05,670 ~-~-> 00:33:16,590 |your screen protector comes on and like goes blank, it'll still record the screen. Alright, so we're looking at the opening price here. And then we're
203 |202 |00:33:16,590 ~-~-> 00:33:27,630 |expecting a cell to form. Well, here's that fear of Vega get wrapped up into that isn't an SL above the opening price yield. Sure is, from that opening price
204 |203 |00:33:27,630 ~-~-> 00:33:36,840 |to that high, that's the highest high take that range in subtracted from the opening price. That's about in this facility here. Okay, we're getting there. So
205 |204 |00:33:36,840 ~-~-> 00:33:49,200 |what's occurring? Well, we have this cell here, then we have this cell here at the open at the equities opening. And then we have this imbalance in here. So
206 |205 |00:33:49,200 ~-~-> 00:33:59,850 |from this range high to that low, multiply that by two, as a projection onwards, whatever that low is to that high.
207 |206 |00:34:02,519 ~-~-> 00:34:11,009 |That much lower, you'll expect to see a short and it forms right here. That's exactly what I taught you. I did not cherry pick that folks, you can go back and
208 |207 |00:34:11,009 ~-~-> 00:34:21,119 |look at data as long as you can find data on daily charts. Okay. And if you can get a intraday chart, like an hourly chart, you'll see it's there. But this is a
209 |208 |00:34:21,119 ~-~-> 00:34:28,559 |15 minute time frame. That's my Bellwether chart. That's what I teach all my students this is the one you go to for day trades and or scalps, you can find
210 |209 |00:34:28,559 ~-~-> 00:34:38,309 |everything for intraday trading on a 15 minutes timeframe. If I was held to a decision of what timeframe would you be forced to trade with? If you had to pick
211 |210 |00:34:38,309 ~-~-> 00:34:48,239 |just one ICT the 15 minutes timeframe because I can I can do anything with that 15 minute timeframe. I can swing trade, I can short term trade. I can day trade,
212 |211 |00:34:48,359 ~-~-> 00:34:59,489 |I can scalp but you only need to have one discipline one way of doing it and you might not like the 15 minute time frame. You might like the one minute chart if
213 |212 |00:34:59,489 ~-~-> 00:35:08,699 |you're trading in the But you have to have the storyline of the 15 minute timeframe to get the full panoramic view of what price is likely to do. So with
214 |213 |00:35:08,699 ~-~-> 00:35:20,069 |this continued teaching here, right below here, what's that, that sell side liquidity, relative equal lows. So you can test this on your own chart. I
215 |214 |00:35:20,069 ~-~-> 00:35:32,189 |omitted it by mistake, I apologize. But the low on this candle here is 14,381. Even. Okay, don't take my word for it, go look at your own chart, it's there. So
216 |215 |00:35:32,219 ~-~-> 00:35:44,759 |14,381, I would have preferred to include a line projected out in time, because you'll see in a moment we dropped down to a lower timeframe. But the setups are
217 |216 |00:35:44,759 ~-~-> 00:35:55,019 |forming here above the opening price, right here near the opening price, see that. And inside of the range from the high to the opening, projected down, it's
218 |217 |00:35:55,019 ~-~-> 00:36:07,829 |in that vicinity there. So it's giving you another opportunity. So again, what's occurred is we went up into that fair value gap on the daily chart, we're back
219 |218 |00:36:07,829 ~-~-> 00:36:23,039 |on the daily chart again. And we're anticipating the opening and rallying up into what maybe the high end of that fair value gap, or something forming at the
220 |219 |00:36:23,039 ~-~-> 00:36:32,789 |news release at 830. But if we look at price price was starting to pump up higher ahead of the 30 news release. So what's that tipping it's handtied
221 |220 |00:36:32,879 ~-~-> 00:36:41,699 |telling you, they're pricing in a premium market ahead of the news. So they're going to use the news to sync it lower, because the bearish bias is going to
222 |221 |00:36:41,699 ~-~-> 00:36:51,449 |come in to fruition. They're going to expand price lower. And they've already established their shorts, because the accumulated above the opening price. And
223 |222 |00:36:51,449 ~-~-> 00:36:59,459 |we can see that in the price action of each little short term rally up like we're looking at here. So here's seven o'clock in the morning, it rallies up all
224 |223 |00:36:59,459 ~-~-> 00:37:10,259 |these relative equal highs, and cleans up being balanced here. And look at that, right there. Yeah. And when I told you there's two fair value gaps, try to trade
225 |224 |00:37:10,259 ~-~-> 00:37:20,579 |it in here. But anticipate and use the money management to allow for your stock to weather a run up into that. And we got it right there. Now strip it down to
226 |225 |00:37:20,579 ~-~-> 00:37:30,869 |what I taught you for the structure of the trade or the framework. swing high broken to the upside taking out by stops. So by Socrates taken, then we have a
227 |226 |00:37:30,869 ~-~-> 00:37:42,899 |swing low, it's broken, that these candles come down lethargically was it like a slow meander decline? No, it was sudden it was a lot of momentum is energetic.
228 |227 |00:37:43,109 ~-~-> 00:37:52,379 |You can't miss those down close candles right there, let's obviously stand out, right. So that's how you know you have a shift in market structure. In this area
229 |228 |00:37:52,379 ~-~-> 00:38:02,309 |here, it doesn't have a fair value gap. That's okay, it's only a five minute chart. This is where we start doing a top down strip of five minute, four
230 |229 |00:38:02,309 ~-~-> 00:38:11,579 |minute, three minute, two minute, one minute, the first fair value get we come to if we find one one a four minute, you don't need to go down to a three, you
231 |230 |00:38:11,579 ~-~-> 00:38:17,699 |don't need to go down to a two, you don't need to go down to a one. If you go down to a four, you don't see one, you go down to a three if you find one there,
232 |231 |00:38:17,729 ~-~-> 00:38:26,609 |you don't go any lower. Okay, if you don't find one on five, the four or the three and you go down to the two minute you find it there. That's it, you don't
233 |232 |00:38:26,609 ~-~-> 00:38:35,849 |get into the limit. If you don't find them a two minute you do find it on the one minute, then that's how you trade it. But what if you don't have one on the
234 |233 |00:38:35,849 ~-~-> 00:38:48,449 |one minute chart? You don't have a trade? How's that for logic? So we have the continuation lower off of a retracement in here. Now this candle, the higher
235 |234 |00:38:48,509 ~-~-> 00:38:59,609 |here I want to use the lighter color but it this candles highs right there. Okay? It actually goes just above that one right there. Not by much, but it
236 |235 |00:38:59,609 ~-~-> 00:39:03,269 |does. But we don't need that. We don't need that. Watch what happens.
237 |236 |00:39:07,200 ~-~-> 00:39:18,090 |Here's the four minute chart. Oh, something different on this journey. We have buyside liquidity here. The candles are a little bit more beef here. When we
238 |237 |00:39:18,090 ~-~-> 00:39:27,540 |were looking at the previous slide, look at this one. Look at the candles look wonky, don't they? But on this timeframe, they become much more prominent, more
239 |238 |00:39:27,540 ~-~-> 00:39:38,100 |beefy, much more stout. Like, look at me, I'm here to take a look at me. That's what we're looking for. We're looking for clean price action, where we can see
240 |239 |00:39:38,100 ~-~-> 00:39:47,130 |the nice candlestick formations, where we're seeing the even distribution of the price going higher or lower, in this case going lower, but we're seeing that
241 |240 |00:39:47,130 ~-~-> 00:39:58,680 |little break where there's not an even distribution of price. That's the fair manga. So we have a runnable by some liquidity after rebalancing over here. It
242 |241 |00:39:58,680 ~-~-> 00:40:10,830 |goes above it and it goes rakes down. So we have an idea. Okay, we could potentially see a trade short here. I like this fair value gap. But we also have
243 |242 |00:40:10,830 ~-~-> 00:40:20,910 |a little bit of amounts in here. So I want to trade in here. But my money management has to permit me to weather a run up into this area to remember that
244 |243 |00:40:20,910 ~-~-> 00:40:34,710 |that's part of the rules. But in here, we're going a little bit deeper. In my YouTube channel, I teach a breaker pattern, okay, and that is a high, a low and
245 |244 |00:40:34,710 ~-~-> 00:40:45,540 |a higher high. That's what this pattern is here. And we're seeing that return here. So if I see a breaker like this, yes, I think the market could potentially
246 |245 |00:40:45,540 ~-~-> 00:40:53,850 |trade up into here. But I'm going to use the breakers candle and just above that for my stop. So I'm not going to go way up here, or way up in here. Because my
247 |246 |00:40:53,850 ~-~-> 00:41:04,590 |foundation to teaching the ice breaker is the markets going to mostly stay in the lower half of the breaker candle, which is the down, down close candle right
248 |247 |00:41:04,590 ~-~-> 00:41:14,340 |for the big move up higher, taking out short term high. Trust me, the breakers taught in the YouTube channel. In other lessons, I'm not going to pour myself
249 |248 |00:41:14,340 ~-~-> 00:41:21,780 |over top of lessons and regurgitate things, because there's a lot of you that have been training with me for a long time. And you don't want to go through
250 |249 |00:41:21,780 ~-~-> 00:41:29,520 |that. And the new people that are here. I understand your enthusiasm and you want to know everything, like a sponge, I get it and I love it. But trust me
251 |250 |00:41:29,520 ~-~-> 00:41:38,910 |when I tell you that is taught in the free lessons in this YouTube channel. Okay, just remember, it's a bearish breaker. And that pattern is the support
252 |251 |00:41:38,910 ~-~-> 00:41:50,220 |structure of why I would not expect it to have have a higher stop up here. Okay. So here's the fair value got range from the low in the high end, but
253 |252 |00:41:50,250 ~-~-> 00:42:00,270 |specifically, this candles low in this candles high right there, extended out in time. Look what happens. It 828 Candles showing the 20 here because it's a four
254 |253 |00:42:00,270 ~-~-> 00:42:08,040 |minute chart. But once we're trading inside here, all I need to do is trade above this candle time. I want to be short, I don't want to mess around, it
255 |254 |00:42:08,040 ~-~-> 00:42:15,330 |might not give me an opportunity to get in, it might not go higher up into that fair value, I want to use the easiest lowest threshold entry technique to get in
256 |255 |00:42:15,330 ~-~-> 00:42:27,240 |to make sure I'm a part of the move, then I'm gonna be aiming for those relatively equal lows. That's that 14381 level 14,381. Remember that relative
257 |256 |00:42:27,240 ~-~-> 00:42:34,290 |equal lows, I said I wish I would have put a line on it. This is the timeframe I added the line. It's the four minute chart. Now if you look real close, you can
258 |257 |00:42:34,290 ~-~-> 00:42:47,640 |see there's a little tiny little arrow right there. And a bunch of them over here. What that is, is treating views paper trading module, and I put some short
259 |258 |00:42:47,760 ~-~-> 00:42:59,010 |on this today. To illustrate what many of you have been asking me in trading view, comments section. A lot of you send me comments through trading view. And
260 |259 |00:42:59,010 ~-~-> 00:43:05,460 |I apologize, I don't get to them a lot, because there's a lot of them usually to happen. And I just don't get to them. I'm sorry. I'm not purposely trying to
261 |260 |00:43:05,460 ~-~-> 00:43:13,950 |ignore you. It's like telegram telegram people send me messages there too. And I just don't I don't have time to go through emails. Absolutely. I don't have a
262 |261 |00:43:13,950 ~-~-> 00:43:19,440 |whole lot of time to get through because everybody wants to write a long story to me, and I appreciate them. But I just can't, I can't sit there all day long
263 |262 |00:43:19,440 ~-~-> 00:43:37,290 |and read all that. But the idea of showing what a discount broker margin, what could I do with that? Okay, I don't recommend it. But there are brokers out
264 |263 |00:43:37,290 ~-~-> 00:43:50,310 |there that will allow you to trade the mini contract for just a couple $1,000 and the micro for less than 100 bucks. In to Me, that is absolutely stupid.
265 |264 |00:43:50,880 ~-~-> 00:44:00,660 |You're asking to blow the account. In these markets, you absolutely can have your hind or parts handed to you. In short, sudden fashion.
266 |265 |00:44:02,310 ~-~-> 00:44:15,240 |Even me in the last four weeks or so I've seen moves that came back on my stop so fast. I was like, Wow, just the other day I watched 100 Point run, come out
267 |266 |00:44:15,240 ~-~-> 00:44:27,780 |of nowhere in a one minute candle It moved 100 points in the NASDAQ. One minute. That's a lot of movement. And so if you're looking at that and you're trying to
268 |267 |00:44:27,780 ~-~-> 00:44:43,560 |hold let's say I don't know 16 minis or eight minis and it moves $2,000 against you in one minute. Folks, your stop would not have been respected. It was
269 |268 |00:44:43,560 ~-~-> 00:44:54,420 |literally way above your stop loss if you were using one. Okay. So you would have got stopped out with negative slippage. And let's say you were holding
270 |269 |00:44:54,420 ~-~-> 00:45:05,700 |those eight contracts. Well, let's say you got burned for 50 points in slippage, and you don't think that's possible? Oh, it's there. 50 points, just like this,
271 |270 |00:45:06,750 ~-~-> 00:45:17,070 |that's $1,000 times your eight contracts, you just lost $8,000. And you're gonna tell me that you can open up an account with a $10,000, whatever. And you're
272 |271 |00:45:17,070 ~-~-> 00:45:28,980 |gonna trade multiple minis, because the discount broker allows you to. And all of a sudden, you just roasted your account in one trade, and some wild little
273 |272 |00:45:28,980 ~-~-> 00:45:40,230 |price move that came out of nowhere that you didn't expect in in one candle, one minute candle. It just smoked your account, just like that. There are teachers
274 |273 |00:45:40,230 ~-~-> 00:45:52,290 |out there that are promoting the idea that that's a good idea. It's not a good idea, folks. $10,000. That's the absolute minimum, I don't think it should be
275 |274 |00:45:52,290 ~-~-> 00:46:05,130 |that I think it should be a little bit higher than that. I think 15,000 is fair for what the NASDAQ is doing right now. Because just today alone, moved 8000 For
276 |275 |00:46:05,340 ~-~-> 00:46:18,480 |per one single count contract, over $8,000 in the movement for one contract. Now, that's top the bottom. And likelihood of you being in that move is probably
277 |276 |00:46:18,510 ~-~-> 00:46:29,040 |you know, obviously not likely, but the measure of risk needs to be appreciated and respected. And unfortunately, YouTube makes it available for anybody to come
278 |277 |00:46:29,040 ~-~-> 00:46:36,510 |out here and pretend to know what they're doing. And unfortunately, if that person isn't skilled, if they don't really do what they say they do, or, or
279 |278 |00:46:36,510 ~-~-> 00:46:48,210 |teach proper risk, or to teach you to respect the level of risk that's required to trade these markets, they're doing you a disservice. And that's the number
280 |279 |00:46:48,210 ~-~-> 00:46:57,720 |one reason why I taught for a long time with a demo, and still teach at a demo. Because, number one legal reasons I'm not trying to be held liable, because I'm
281 |280 |00:46:57,720 ~-~-> 00:47:04,920 |not licensed to get trade advice. But it's not treated by Senate demo account, you're not making or losing anything. It's fantasy football with price charts,
282 |281 |00:47:05,190 ~-~-> 00:47:15,330 |but you can learn how to read price action with it. This year, I've been showing you a live account. That's real. I'm not teaching through that. minutes that,
283 |282 |00:47:16,050 ~-~-> 00:47:25,440 |okay, at the end of the year, I'm going to share with you what that count has done. I'll be 100% transparent, I will show you line by line, every single trade
284 |283 |00:47:25,470 ~-~-> 00:47:35,970 |from every single trading day of every single trading week of every month, you'll see it, okay. Throughout the year, I'm going to be teaching lessons about
285 |284 |00:47:35,970 ~-~-> 00:47:45,000 |certain things, and you're going to see them applied when I share the entire history with that account. So it's more meaningful to me as a lot of you in the
286 |285 |00:47:45,630 ~-~-> 00:47:56,820 |comment sections that are trolling tonight. I know what you're here for. But I am going to give you undeniable proof, just like the rest of you. That way, you
287 |286 |00:47:56,820 ~-~-> 00:48:07,260 |can see the lessons I'm giving you. Yes, they worked in demo, but they're actually being utilized in life on trading by me. It's after the fact. So I
288 |287 |00:48:07,260 ~-~-> 00:48:16,560 |cannot be accused of giving you trade advice. It's what I did with my real money. See the difference there? It is what it is, if you don't like this
289 |288 |00:48:16,560 ~-~-> 00:48:22,560 |teaching style, there's other people out there teaching all kinds of great stuff, doesn't mean it's profitable. But they got all kinds of neat stuff to
290 |289 |00:48:22,590 ~-~-> 00:48:31,890 |look at. I'm teaching you how to read price. And I need you to be sober minded about the level of risk that these markets provide us because it can take you
291 |290 |00:48:31,890 ~-~-> 00:48:45,480 |out quickly. So I got questioned by I don't know, six or seven of the people, some of them are actually my students in mentorship and others are just people
292 |291 |00:48:45,480 ~-~-> 00:48:51,720 |that are on the internet. You know, I don't know if they're just YouTube or if they're just trading you people that try to follow me on there.
293 |292 |00:48:53,010 ~-~-> 00:49:04,230 |But they asked could I showcase what I would do with a $10,000 hypothetical account if I was using a discount broker and almost a broker that would let me
294 |293 |00:49:04,230 ~-~-> 00:49:17,610 |trade with Montana like $2,000 or $1,500 per contract something to that effect for NASDAQ mini Contract Number one it was crazy trying to find some of those
295 |294 |00:49:17,610 ~-~-> 00:49:31,320 |setups because the frame the risk in it and to do big lot sizes to was very challenging, but I kept it low end it only took me two weeks to do this. But you
296 |295 |00:49:31,320 ~-~-> 00:49:45,450 |can see I put a heavy handed short up here using what I'm teaching you here and then aiming for there's relative equal lows which is that 14,381 level this is
297 |296 |00:49:45,450 ~-~-> 00:49:53,160 |my trading view account now you're going to hear people say this is photoshopped. Are you Photoshop this? No I did not. I don't need the Photoshop
298 |297 |00:49:53,160 ~-~-> 00:50:03,300 |this. In fact, my live mentorship with real students that paid me they're gonna see me show This live and it's gonna move all around, it's not edited, I'm gonna
299 |298 |00:50:03,300 ~-~-> 00:50:10,290 |log out of the account and log back in. So it's not me doing any kind of editing, it's not empty for servers or anything like that you can play around
300 |299 |00:50:10,290 ~-~-> 00:50:19,170 |with, it's not NinjaTrader, we can go in there and take a bad trade out, make it look good. All these things here are executions. Okay, and you can see there's
301 |300 |00:50:19,170 ~-~-> 00:50:34,470 |three losing trades there on the 14th. And worse, you can see today's trades all up at the top. And that was me doing a heavy handed a quant style heavy handed
302 |301 |00:50:34,530 ~-~-> 00:50:47,700 |short and then taking partials as it was going down into that level of 14,381. Looking at this, this is your classic. You know, the guy shows you the results.
303 |302 |00:50:48,000 ~-~-> 00:50:55,800 |Okay, shows you. This is what I did with my demo account. Nimi line say it's a real account. This is clearly a paper trading account. You can see it it's
304 |303 |00:50:55,800 ~-~-> 00:51:07,590 |there. It says right up here. Paper trading. Okay. Paper trading. This is all paper money. Okay. I started the account with trading view at $10,000. Okay, and
305 |304 |00:51:07,590 ~-~-> 00:51:21,570 |that was on February 3, just two weeks ago to the day. Okay, so, two, Thursday's ago, I started this and set the account this start with $10,000. And I started
306 |305 |00:51:21,570 ~-~-> 00:51:32,070 |trading it. And you can see the positions here with just the NASDAQ. Okay, I'm not doing anything with like Forex to make it go up. I'm not trying to pull out
307 |306 |00:51:32,070 ~-~-> 00:51:44,730 |bonds, I'm not trying to do anything like that I'm showing you just the NASDAQ starting at $10,000, in two weeks, using again, the limitations of I guess, I
308 |307 |00:51:44,730 ~-~-> 00:51:57,360 |don't want to say limitations, the pseudo benefit of a discount broker, what could I do in two weeks doing that, and using what I'm teaching you to? That's
309 |308 |00:51:57,390 ~-~-> 00:52:11,010 |the difference. I'm literally teaching, what I'm showing here. I just showed you the example of it in the chart before. This is the equivalent of 582%. In two
310 |309 |00:52:11,010 ~-~-> 00:52:22,200 |weeks now, it's hypothetically done in paper trading, yes, but with the perspective of a hypothetical discount broker margin being used. So whereas I'm
311 |310 |00:52:22,200 ~-~-> 00:52:33,120 |trading with TD Ameritrade right now, and they require me to have almost $22,000 to treat my contract. I don't have a problem with that, because of the level of
312 |311 |00:52:33,150 ~-~-> 00:52:40,260 |volatility that's in there. It just makes it easy for me not to worry about it, like I'm not worried about it. I know got plenty of margin, I know got plenty of
313 |312 |00:52:40,260 ~-~-> 00:52:49,290 |equity. If I get banged by something come out of nowhere, say Russia goes into Ukraine, or China invades Taiwan or something crazy comes out and crosses the
314 |313 |00:52:49,290 ~-~-> 00:52:59,370 |market to go nuts, because I expect that to be coming any time now. It won't smoke my account, okay, I'm not gonna I'm not gonna blow the account, I
315 |314 |00:52:59,370 ~-~-> 00:53:09,480 |guarantee you this accounts not blowing, okay. And I'm showing, in my opinion, what it would be like for someone if they ever got to the point where you put
316 |315 |00:53:09,480 ~-~-> 00:53:17,700 |yours into developing their own model. Now, that doesn't mean you can't find profitability for that. But after you've done it for a while, and you found your
317 |316 |00:53:17,700 ~-~-> 00:53:26,760 |own niche of what you want to do with the content I'm teaching you, you'll find your own groove. And once that's done, and you can formulate a well written
318 |317 |00:53:27,270 ~-~-> 00:53:35,280 |model on paper where everything is outlined, when do you buy when do you sell? What do you put your stop at? When do you move your stuff? How many contracts Do
319 |318 |00:53:35,280 ~-~-> 00:53:42,030 |you trade? You know, what constitutes a day where you don't take a trade, all those types of things, I will teach you those lessons in this YouTube
320 |319 |00:53:42,030 ~-~-> 00:53:48,750 |mentorship, okay? A lot of you also are very, very excited. And you're like, Okay, I see the illness, but I'm not really learning anything new, I'm
321 |320 |00:53:48,750 ~-~-> 00:53:49,320 |disappointed.
322 |321 |00:53:50,940 ~-~-> 00:54:00,420 |I'm not done. You give me those complaints after I say I'm done. Okay, but I'm giving you gold, like this is something that you can go out there in term in
323 |322 |00:54:00,420 ~-~-> 00:54:11,280 |these markets, and really develop a skill set that could completely change your whole entire direction in your life. I'm not promising profitability notice that
324 |323 |00:54:11,310 ~-~-> 00:54:20,040 |see that I'm not promising that I'm not promising your six figure income every year, I'm not doing that either. I'm telling you that you will love price
325 |324 |00:54:20,040 ~-~-> 00:54:31,200 |action, because it repeats it's something that's well, it repeats. And if you know something's gonna repeat, it's familiar and things that are familiar or
326 |325 |00:54:31,200 ~-~-> 00:54:39,570 |comfortable. Right now, you don't know what these patterns are likely to do. You're, they're unfamiliar to you. So it's, it's important for you understand
327 |326 |00:54:39,570 ~-~-> 00:54:46,590 |that that's a temporary struggling point. But going through the things I'm going to teach you to do here and I'm streamlining it yes, this doesn't feel like
328 |327 |00:54:46,590 ~-~-> 00:54:52,380 |streamlining to somebody you want me to come in and say this is where you buy and this is where you sell you put your stop loss right here. And he's where you
329 |328 |00:54:52,380 ~-~-> 00:54:59,160 |take your profits and it's always like this every single time. Wash, rinse, repeat and it never violates any of those rules and it's just always the same
330 |329 |00:54:59,160 ~-~-> 00:55:08,040 |way. If you think That way, just change this channel right now, don't come back here, because that's not reality. There's going to be similarities that looks
331 |330 |00:55:08,040 ~-~-> 00:55:26,970 |slightly different than the last few times he took the trade, but you will recognize them. But my question to you is if you could do this over a year, not
332 |331 |00:55:26,970 ~-~-> 00:55:35,850 |two weeks, would you be impressed with yourself? If you could do that? Would you feel that it would be enough? Some of you young guys don't think that this is
333 |332 |00:55:35,850 ~-~-> 00:55:48,330 |enough. And it's amazing that that type of return is amazing. If you continue, if you can turn that with a live account. That's phenomenal. Like that's, that's
334 |333 |00:55:48,330 ~-~-> 00:55:59,490 |wealth making there. You don't need to be that hard to make money. But if you can get that kind of number a year, over 12 months, hit something like that.
335 |334 |00:55:59,520 ~-~-> 00:56:09,690 |That's amazing. And that's not even what I teach my students to expect. And I'm not, this is not bragging. I'm not trying to say, Look at me, look and treat a
336 |335 |00:56:09,690 ~-~-> 00:56:20,070 |demo account. Look at me. That's not what I'm doing here, folks. Okay. I was asked sincerely, to show you all hear me telling you in on shame, I'm showing
337 |336 |00:56:20,070 ~-~-> 00:56:30,540 |you it's a paper trading account, because I'm not going to go into amp, or some other broker that's going to allow me to trade with discount broker margins, I'm
338 |337 |00:56:30,540 ~-~-> 00:56:41,340 |not going to do it. I know, I know, even what I know, I'm going to get smoked if I try to do something crazy and heavy handed. Because even with me trading one
339 |338 |00:56:41,340 ~-~-> 00:56:51,120 |contract, I've had moves come against me pretty sudden. And there was nothing I could have done about it. Because the volatility is so fierce right now. I'm not
340 |339 |00:56:51,120 ~-~-> 00:57:05,850 |afraid of it. But I do absolutely respect it. So to provide a answer to the guys out there that say that, yeah, it's stupid to trade in another account where
341 |340 |00:57:05,850 ~-~-> 00:57:16,950 |they use the exchange rate margins for initial margins, which is worth now, almost $22,000. For the NASDAQ one mini contract, you need about $20,000. It was
342 |341 |00:57:16,950 ~-~-> 00:57:29,910 |about $17,960, about three and a half weeks ago, four weeks ago, but they raised it up, if they raised the margins. This is for your notes, okay? If they raise
343 |342 |00:57:29,910 ~-~-> 00:57:43,350 |the margins, that's the exchange, tipping their hand to you that huge moves are coming. Big monsters moves are coming. And he just raised the margins. You think
344 |343 |00:57:43,350 ~-~-> 00:57:58,050 |that's coincidence? It's a big loser comment. And if you're offside, it's gonna get real hot the underpants. But if you're on side, in a non sweeter net, that's
345 |344 |00:57:58,050 ~-~-> 00:58:09,630 |like winning the lottery. And these moves are significant. I mean, let's go back up for a second. Okay. And I'll close this video. If you look at the fair value
346 |345 |00:58:09,630 ~-~-> 00:58:34,890 |gap in here, okay, and see your fill at 14,550. And you're aiming for 14,381? Is that six and a half points? No. Is it 20? No. Is it 50? Is it 100? Nope. It's
347 |346 |00:58:34,890 ~-~-> 00:58:40,770 |more. The you see a pattern here. One contract.
348 |347 |00:58:42,389 ~-~-> 00:58:54,329 |Folks, what I'm teaching you is literally a ATM machine in your hands. I'm giving you the pin numbers. Every time I do a video here. I'm giving you have
349 |348 |00:58:54,329 ~-~-> 00:59:04,739 |another digit. And once you figure out what is it you want to do with this content, and make it part of you. And you'll see what I mean by that right now.
350 |349 |00:59:05,129 ~-~-> 00:59:14,069 |You might see me showing it's like man, this makes perfect sense. Most of the comments that I don't allow to be posted are just sugar, sweet. diabetic coma
351 |350 |00:59:14,459 ~-~-> 00:59:22,919 |type, lovey dovey comments, and I'm not making fun of that. And I appreciate I know you mean by it. And you want to show your adoration and respect. I love
352 |351 |00:59:22,919 ~-~-> 00:59:35,999 |that. But don't lose sight that you're feeling that splash over because I'm literally taking you into the chart and showing you what I know. And you're
353 |352 |00:59:35,999 ~-~-> 00:59:43,529 |excited because you knew the opportunity is available to you if you stick to this, and that's the right perspective. But don't lose sight and think that I
354 |353 |00:59:43,529 ~-~-> 00:59:50,129 |just watched that video. And I'm going to go out there and trade because I've had some people post in the comment section. And they tried to do something with
355 |354 |00:59:50,129 ~-~-> 00:59:56,939 |live accounts, which already said no, don't do that. And they're saying, I don't think these concepts work because I tried to do this and I tried to buy this
356 |355 |00:59:56,939 ~-~-> 01:00:05,219 |fair buy you get today and you know who you are and I'm not trying to make funny I'm not talking down to you. But the bias is bearish. So if the bias is bearish,
357 |356 |01:00:05,249 ~-~-> 01:00:14,189 |would you go in looking for a bullish fair value got? No, that's, that's the purpose of having a model. And then with that model each morning, before the
358 |357 |01:00:14,189 ~-~-> 01:00:24,749 |markets even start trading, you write down what your intentions are. What does that mean? I gave you the range, right? Here's the opening price, it rallies up
359 |358 |01:00:24,749 ~-~-> 01:00:33,269 |to that. So inside that range, you're gonna look for a setup to go short, you're bearish. And if it goes down below that low, you can still take a short if it's
360 |359 |01:00:33,269 ~-~-> 01:00:44,069 |in this range minus this low, okay? If it leaves that area, you can't chase it. I don't care how good it looks later in a day, you don't do it, you have that
361 |360 |01:00:44,069 ~-~-> 01:00:50,999 |discipline, folks, if you don't have discipline, your broker is not going to help you with that. They want you to click that button, study make money, and
362 |361 |01:00:50,999 ~-~-> 01:01:01,469 |they don't care if you blow your account, because there's gonna be 20 more to replace you. Because they've watched ICT videos, they've watched everybody else
363 |362 |01:01:01,469 ~-~-> 01:01:14,069 |on YouTube, that try to tell you that you can do this, and it's so easy. Even a pizza delivery boy can do it. So, hopefully, this has helped clear up the idea
364 |363 |01:01:14,069 ~-~-> 01:01:25,289 |of bias and power three. And I will be repeating these themes, when it's applicable in the newer videos that come out and examples I'm going to teach
365 |364 |01:01:25,289 ~-~-> 01:01:41,579 |with. But for now, I can't say it enough. What you were just exposed to that is the underpinnings of what we do in my camp. Okay, ICT. My students, we'd look at
366 |365 |01:01:41,579 ~-~-> 01:01:50,579 |price like that. Let me throw one more thing in here. Just to piss off everybody that doesn't like these long videos. Let me go back up into this area real
367 |366 |01:01:50,579 ~-~-> 01:02:04,709 |quick. And on a daily chart with the candlesticks is what I'm looking for here. Here we go. Alright, notice something from this low up to this high. It's
368 |367 |01:02:04,709 ~-~-> 01:02:13,469 |bullish, okay. We're expecting bullish prices. This is how you back test you tell yourself and your annotations. I was expecting you're you're basically
369 |368 |01:02:13,469 ~-~-> 01:02:20,969 |lying to yourself in the in the comments of your chart when you're back testing. It sounds foolish, okay, trolls are gonna love that comment coming out of my
370 |369 |01:02:20,969 ~-~-> 01:02:31,529 |mouth. But what you're doing is you're teaching yourself sued, pseudo experience. It's training your subconscious to see this stuff, like you saw it
371 |370 |01:02:31,529 ~-~-> 01:02:39,719 |live. And when you record it on the chart in your own annotations, and you log it, and you keep it in your journal. You know, on the weekend, you go back and
372 |371 |01:02:39,719 ~-~-> 01:02:46,709 |look at your Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and then you look at the previous week. And you start looking at these patterns and how it repeats
373 |372 |01:02:46,739 ~-~-> 01:02:55,919 |over and over again. When it's bullish. You're trying to stay with the opposite of this open near the low closing the high but expansion to the upside. So
374 |373 |01:02:55,949 ~-~-> 01:03:05,969 |you'll accumulate Long's manipulate, get people thinking it's going to go lower, and then ramp it up higher. Distribute the Long's near the close. That's what
375 |374 |01:03:05,969 ~-~-> 01:03:16,319 |you're looking for here. With that mindset, okay, you're all afraid of but what happens if it's a down day? ICT what happens? Well, the worst thing that can
376 |375 |01:03:16,319 ~-~-> 01:03:21,329 |happen is you lose money. If you think that you're going to trade and not ever lose money,
377 |376 |01:03:23,280 ~-~-> 01:03:32,040 |turn the videos off. Don't ever watch anybody else's either. Because that's not a proper mindset. Traders are professional losers. They're managing every trade
378 |377 |01:03:32,490 ~-~-> 01:03:43,710 |right from the beginning. They got to come out of the costs, you're paying a commission. If you got slipped in forex, you got a spread. Every trade opens up
379 |378 |01:03:43,710 ~-~-> 01:03:56,130 |as a loser. So a trader is a professional management company of losing trades. They turn losers into winners, but not every loser can be turned into a winner,
380 |379 |01:03:56,550 ~-~-> 01:04:06,300 |but they don't lose their business because a few never become winners. It's real important understand that folks? It's a paradigm shift that took place when I
381 |380 |01:04:06,300 ~-~-> 01:04:16,500 |was younger man. I felt that there was a way for me to always win. I was convinced of it. There isn't there is no way of doing that. Okay, so last
382 |381 |01:04:16,500 ~-~-> 01:04:24,390 |analogy last lesson in the video is over if we're bullish here, okay, we're expecting each candle to expand higher so our words to close be higher than the
383 |382 |01:04:24,390 ~-~-> 01:04:44,070 |opening on each individual candle. My up candles are green. How many black or down close candles do you see in this price run to about this price move here.
384 |383 |01:04:44,280 ~-~-> 01:04:56,310 |It's going lower right going down for the sell side here. You're bearish. But what happens ICT if it goes up? You'll probably lose money. But let's count how
385 |384 |01:04:56,310 ~-~-> 01:05:10,950 |many up close candle we have. 123 For five, look how much range it moved. If you can't have a model, that weathers say you got a losing trade each one of those
386 |385 |01:05:10,950 ~-~-> 01:05:22,830 |days, if that blows your account, you're not managing your risk properly. You're over leveraging or overtrading. So easy that is to deduce your problems. It's
387 |386 |01:05:22,830 ~-~-> 01:05:31,350 |simple stuff, folks. But you're, you're scaring yourself. You're overthinking things. You're listening to me talk about multiple concepts that will come
388 |387 |01:05:31,350 ~-~-> 01:05:41,460 |together in a few weeks. But you're over thinking everything. And you're trying to assume just because you watched a few videos, and you're thinking foolishly,
389 |388 |01:05:41,520 ~-~-> 01:05:52,380 |that just by watching a few of these videos, we're only in Episode 1010 episodes. And suddenly you think you can go out there and own the world now. I
390 |389 |01:05:52,380 ~-~-> 01:06:02,250 |understand. It's empowering information if you've never been introduced to it, but you're not going to own the world up to episode 10. Okay, you're not going
391 |390 |01:06:02,250 ~-~-> 01:06:08,250 |to do that. You're going to lose money. If you go out there and try to rush to try to do this stuff. There's a lot of things we still have to cover. And you
392 |391 |01:06:08,250 ~-~-> 01:06:18,600 |haven't even back tested enough. haven't even been teaching it long enough on YouTube, for you to even have a back lot of data to draw experience from. So
393 |392 |01:06:18,600 ~-~-> 01:06:28,020 |think about that. Okay. Trust me when I tell you folks, these moves, repeat all the time, all the time. And don't feel like you're missing out because you're
394 |393 |01:06:28,020 ~-~-> 01:06:38,850 |not doing it right now. Put that feeling aside, make this fun while you're learning it. And it will never feel like a job or tedious task. That's gonna be
395 |394 |01:06:38,850 ~-~-> 01:06:45,030 |it for this one, hopefully, was insightful to you and I'll talk to you next Tuesday. Enjoy your weekend and be safe.