ICT YT - 2019-08-27 - Is Forex Intraday Really Just Noise.srt
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ICT: It's important to realize that what I'm illustrating here is simply a
example of the level of precision that's available, when you understand what
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you're looking for.
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noise. There's a narrative that's going on. And it's price delivery. So we have
to understand that there is a wide, diverse opinion, across the board with
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technical analysis. One of the things that ruffles a lot of feathers with me is
that I candidly come out and say, 90% of what you're learning is fluff in right
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away, that will be very polarizing, folks that are very team oriented in their
mindset about who they learned from, who taught them the system, or the web, the
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system that is, or method that they try to use in their trading, they really
want to go into defensive and tell me how I'm wrong about my perspective. Now,
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again, I'm not trying to rally up everyone to try to defend your supply and
demand your Elliott Wave and all that much stuff.
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I don't think there's any valid reason to pursue that. And that's my personal
opinion. I've studied all that stuff. And you quickly realize that that's not
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the answer. Okay. So I kind of like want to just give you a little bit of an
understanding what it looks like, when you understand order flow. And this is by
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no means any complete, exhaustive teaching on order flow. And it's a very deep
subject. There's many concepts that you have to understand to fully appreciate
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the level of precision. But nonetheless, I teach a lot of this stuff. And yes,
this sounds like a shameless plug. But I don't teach everything that you see
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here. In my free tutorials, you will see a sampling of things. And the overall
premise will be what is shown in my free teachings and videos. If you put time
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and study with the free tutorials, and years and years and years of practice and
had your patience forged, you might come close to some of the lower level,
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mentorship teachings, but you won't have everything because there's simply gaps
in the teaching on my free tutorials. So again, with all that said, it's not
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important for you to join my mentorship. In fact, if you want to just study the
free stuff that I put on my YouTube channel, and you've grown from that
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wonderful, I love getting those emails too. But nonetheless, I teach a lot of
this stuff in great detail in the mentorship. So I'll give you some more
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information at the end of the video. If you want to know more about that. I
won't bore you any more with it here. Alright, so for looking at the British
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Pound versus the US dollar, noggins is a one minute chart. Forget timeframe.
Right away. Some of you are going to be thinking, is this the timeframe I trade
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off? No, I can trade off of this timeframe. But it's not the timeframe that I
trade off of, I get a lot of questions, and I'll answer it here. That way, it
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saves me a lot of time and retweeting it. The
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time that I usually execute on is usually a five minute chart or 15 minute
chart, my setup generally is seen on a one hour chart, or four hour. And my bias
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or directional premise is derived from the daily chart, and most time in this
kind of like the same direction on weekly chart. Unless I'm trading off of a
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higher timeframe dealing range from either a monthly or weekly or daily chart,
I'm usually trading in some measure of institutional order flow. Now
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institutional order flow, what is that? It is the understanding of where the
price algorithm will seek to move price, higher or lower. I don't believe I
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don't subscribe to the opinion. And common view that's bandied about in trading,
that markets go up and down because of buying and selling pressure, I don't
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believe that at all, I believe 100%. And no one's going to convince me
otherwise. So if you if you're new to me, and you just found me because of this
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video, or whatever, I'm really not interested in trying to be swayed. You
probably think that's a very closed minded individual. So therefore, you know,
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I'm probably very arrogant and stuffy and full of myself, that you're welcome to
have all those opinions. I'm just, I've been doing this for 27 years, you're not
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going to convince me otherwise. Okay? I'm only putting this out there for you to
investigate and see if there's anything of value that you could take away from
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it for your own trading. So with that said, the one minute chart, I'm kind of
like answered. And I said a lot about this on Twitter, in recent months, there
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are folks that teach other people. And they will tell you that lower timeframes,
no one can find any consistency with it. In fact, I send a lot of times every
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month or so I'll send a tweet from a gentleman that I don't even know where I
picked it up from but I recorded it and kept it because I think it's funny,
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where it says no one should try to ever time the market and beat the market
getting in before a big move and getting out. And no one can do it consistently.
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And I find that very, very amusing. Because in our community, and on my Twitter,
I show examples this every single week. So again, it's a lot of stuff out there
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that you're going to be exposed to that simply is nonsense. It's nonsense. Just
because these folks that tell you this, don't understand how to do it. In no way
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shape or form. Does it make it invalid? When I tell you that it's possible?
Because I show evidence of it? every single week. So last Friday, what's today's
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date? See here? Yeah, the 23rd the 23rd I revealed a personal algorithm of my
own and I don't teach it so don't ask please. But I i showcased a way of working
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within orderflow on what otherwise be viewed as a choppy market in the dollar
CAD. And between that and running up a trade in euro dollar I was able to
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harvest 175 pips. And then yesterday I showed 102 pips trading the same type of
approach. And right away I got a buzz on Twitter and most of my mentorship group
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are sending emails to and I gotta be teaching that and I had to hurry up squash
that because as a as an educator that gets paid now and much to a lot of folks
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dismay, it is what it is, is the only way for me to protect my intellectual
property I didn't incorporate and now I, you know, it's my content and I hold
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the copyright. So I don't want anyone feeling like you can take it and sell it
and repackage it without any kind of response from me and when we get a legal
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front but the view of having seen how I did that using limit orders both sides
of the market buying limiting out on the long end and limiting in a short in the
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in the limit orders were waiting there for me. So I can see the turning points
in price before it happens. No one does this stuff. No one not the guys from
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Goldman Sachs. Okay, they're not the guys from UBS. Not the guys from Citi. None
of those guys do. What I'm showing you the reasons why. They will scoff and say
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intraday charts are all noise is because they don't really understand how the
markets operate. They're taught
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from a very myopic view on price many times it's from a long term, macro
fundamental basis and I'm not going to get into on a rant about how fundamentals
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do or don't supply value, because to some degree, I do believe that if you're
going to equate fundamentals to price action, if you're going to be using the
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differential for interest rates, then I agree that fundamentals are salient. But
apart from that don't rely on and I don't care. And I'm still pulling out
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ridiculous, insane precision. Okay. So this is going to be one more example. And
I'm not going to do any more of this because all it's doing is drawing more
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attention to the interest in my personal algorithm, and I'm not teaching it, I'm
not selling it. And I'm not doing signal services with it. Okay. I just simply
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answer the response to some goober that posted on a video saying that I'm
waiting for a trending market to trade. And I don't rely on a trend, it just
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makes it a lot easier when you understand higher timeframe order flow. And if
you trade in that direction, your trade setups will work. If you're in sync with
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that, the problem is, is most people don't understand what the order flow is at
any given time. And while I won't really go into that here, because it takes
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multiple videos and other supporting theories, like open float, and just a
myriad of things that needs to be covered, some of which I hinted at in free
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tutorials, and you can pursue some of that in my youtube channel doesn't cost
anything but your time to go and watch those videos. And I promise you, you will
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learn more about price action from those videos than any book anywhere on the
subject, period. So what kinda like my ask you a question? If you look at price
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action, where we're at right now, disregard the reaction down here for now,
okay, we'll get to that later in the video. disregard the the low down here,
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we're not concerned about that. What I'm asking you look at this movement here,
and then a run up to this level, then this movement down to here. Okay. If I
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were to ask you, what you what do you see rather, if I were to ask you, what do
you see in that? If we were all in a room coming up from different backgrounds,
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from different technical approaches to trading from different studies and
disciplines of trading? invariably, we're going to have a wide range of views
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about what they would collectively see. And my question is, when you look at
price action like this, are you looking for patterns? Or are you relying on
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indicators to tell you overbought, oversold divergence, all those types of
things? Or are you reading the tape? Okay, what I mean by that, before I put the
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annotations on my chart, okay, you obviously saw at the beginning of the video
where I had a short from very close to the high, and then inside this
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retracement, and then rode all the way down to a run below these equal lows. My
mind thinks about what orders are resting in the marketplace. Okay. The things
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that work in technical analysis are the very things that don't exist in your
charts. And I say this a lot. And I don't really give too much thought about
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when I'm saying it, how much confusion or mystery it raises. But it has it has
come to a great deal of interest even with my personal mentorship. Members are
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asking me what do I mean by that? And it's, it's simply this it's liquidity. The
the price action that you see on your charts are not a response of buying and
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selling pressure. There. There's nothing to do with harmonic patterns. Nothing
Fibonacci made these moves form. trend lines had no bearing on how high and how
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far when these things occurred. The prices moving because of the central bank
period, that delivery of price, because they are the storehouse, they are the
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the producer to the supplier of price itself for the individual banks like Bank
of Japan and Bank of England, the Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve for the US.
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The price coming from that central bank is what creates these patterns on your
chart. Now I already know you know Joe Schmo from XYZ institutional firms going
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to rebut me and say, Oh, you're not you're talking about yada yada this and yada
yada that price is all about supply and demand. And it's not. It's absolutely
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not. It's not it's not. Price Is 100% manipulated, okay.
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If you believe that price is going up because of buying and selling. That means
we could literally take all these markets down in one day. If it was simply that
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it doesn't happen. They're controlling There's limits, there's thresholds that
they will allow price to trade within. I'm on record many, many times for over
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20, some years now, stating that the daily highs and lows formed based on a peg
that set at midnight, New York time. So when we see the daily highs and the lows
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form, in these currency pairs, you think it may be a random walk forward of
buying and selling pressure. It's not. I have shown many examples, both on free
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public and in mentorship, where I've been able to nail the high and the low of
the week. And the day before it happens, before it forms. I already know what's
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going to happen. Now that probably sounds very arrogant. Oh, now I know this is
a scam. I know exactly what you're thinking. This is the reason why my teachings
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have taken years because of me on the scene told you, I could do this right
away, it would nobody would ever pay attention. But I have a rather large
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audience that have grown to trust me because of my ability to show it. But my
introduction to it was to ask you all What do you see in price? I started this
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whole thing with the introduction of specific highly loved indicators. Because
if you have an affinity for indicators, you are thinking the same way as
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everyone else in retail. So you're all thinking the same. And if everyone is
struggling, by far and large, if you looked at statistics, most people lose
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money trading. And it becomes rather obvious. When you take a step back and look
at it. These are the same characteristics that all the same losers are having.
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So why are you doing those same things expecting that you're going to be treated
differently from the universe, someone's going to, you know, say, hey, look at
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this guy's working really hard. that's rewarding today and give him insights
that no one else has added the same group of people following the same things
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and these books, you're going to be the one that gets preferential treatment.
No, it doesn't work that way. I felt the same stuff. So don't be offended
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because it's exactly what I was lulled into believing back in 1992, November
5 1992, I sat down and considered my passive interest at the time in trading and
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investing. And I got hooked on it. But everything that I learned from books I
have since dismissed. Now, I do see things from a retail standpoint, that I know
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gets traders really excited. They like their indicators, they like they're
divergence, they like they're moving average crossovers. They like their trend
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lines being broken, and they like their horizontal support resistance. They love
those things. And I love the fact that they love them, because it gives me a
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great edge on knowing when smart money is going to reprice the opposite
direction. With that said, let's go into limited detail here. I taught a premise
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called the market maker buy and sell models. Now. Right away, just to kind of
like, head off the guys, this might come into the comment section and tell
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everybody that I'm teaching wycoff I was trading these ideas before I knew about
wycoff. Now wycoff is way before ICT way before Michael Huddleston way before I
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was even born, okay, this guy was talking about marking up in a price move and
marking down. And it would be a great interest for you to go and study whatever
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you can from wycoff. And then once you have done that, if you're wanting to be a
student of mine, join the fold and research what I teach. And you'll see that
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there's nothing remotely close to the level of precision that I teach using what
would otherwise look similar. If you look at this consolidation in here, okay?
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Wipe off a teach, here's consolidation, here's a spring or run below this low
here, then it runs up and it comes back as a retest, and then shoots up and then
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starts to sell off. Well, that's all fine and great. But what's the premise
behind it? Why should it form? See the problem is once I had already learned how
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the market books price like this in futures, because that's how I started as a
trader, I didn't start as a forex trader that happened as a complete transition
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in 2006 1992. I traded and started as a futures trader, a commodity trader by
looking at multiple views of my initial real mentor, Larry Williams. No, I did
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not go to his house. No, I did not go to his workshops. No, I did not go to
seminars, but I think I studied involved everything the guy put out. And it
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wasn't until I got with him and his material that I had a little better
understanding about what price was likely to do. And then from there, I
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dismantled all that stuff, and then went even deeper. Now, I'm not trying to
disrespect Mr. Williams, because I'm so thankful that he put out his books, I'm
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so thankful that he put me you know, in the in the initial stages of my
development, he had a video course. The futures millionaires confidential
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trading course, it was for VHS tapes, and it's very hard to find it if you go on
eBay once in a while you see it. But it was like, I think, if I'm not mistaken
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them 300 bucks or 290 bucks or 275 bucks, something like that. And it was for
VHS tapes. And there was a section in there that I would always look at. And I
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saw what was understood later on as a market maker. So model. And it was very
similar to what you see here. Okay. And I knew right away, that there was
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something to that fractal, or that pattern, if you will, or price structure,
because I kept seeing it over and over and over again. And it wasn't until this
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guy on America Line, because that's what we were using back then. Everything was
message boards, and I guess instant instant messages that would come up in the
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right hand corner. I think it's what we call them instant messages. If it's not,
then everyone that's in your 40s or late 30s knows exactly what I'm talking
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about. Instead of like a DM or direct message today, I think it was instant
message. But that was our internet. That was when we watched the whole
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transition from open outcry markets to electronic trading. But one one of the
message boards, there was a guy talking about wycoff. And in true form, as a
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noob didn't know what I was doing. I was trolling this guy, because I thought I
figured it out with a 50 day moving average and stochastics bullish divergence
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on an hourly chart. So and commitment traders, to me that was kinda like my
whole trading plan back then. And because everything in the 90s was going up,
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and he's, you know, ridiculous bull markets, I looked a lot smarter than I
really was. So because he was referring to things that I was not aware of at a
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time. And again, we're talking about 1993. So this was 1993. I made fun of the
guy told him everything a typical noob does to defend his team. Okay, I was I
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was I was a Larry Williams guy. Okay, it's everything was Larry Williams, Larry,
when it's kind of like what a lot of my guys and gals like to do with me. And I
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think it's silly, really, you don't need to champion me, okay, I'm not anybody's
hero. I'm not trying to be a super guru. I'm a real person. And I like to be
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able to invest my experience in the new people, and relive all those moments
myself. But I was ridiculing something back then, which happened to be wycoff.
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Because of the silly names. Now, doesn't that sound funny, because I'm the guy
that coined the Judas swing, the SMT divergence, these are all rather silly
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names. But they were a means of communicating something that I understood, but
there was nothing for me to go and say, to my sons, who I was talking about, and
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teaching, you know, in early stages of my career, these are things that I had to
come up with, to communicate with, basically what it is that I'm trying to say
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is occurring in price.
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And you can't come with very lofty theories. Because you're talking to a child,
you kind of make it as simple as possible. So most of the things that I used,
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were rather Elementary, and it works. So because of the names like spring, jump
the creek, break the ice, these are all things that are synonymous with wycoff.
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I didn't like the idea. There's names, I thought it was rather myopic, and I did
not give it the attention. That I think personally today, it warrants that I
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don't believe that that's the answers. But I believe if you study it, you'll
understand it a little bit about how markets pricing runs higher and lower. But
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it doesn't really come to the conclusion of what to do with it. It works
beautiful. In hindsight, it shows you what you could have seen if you understood
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what price was going to do next. So I see a lot of folks that are very cynical,
argumentative about what I do. I have been on record before saying that I found
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supporting evidence in wycoff theory but had already arrived at seeing low
resistance liquidity runs, like we're going to talk about here. Okay. And the
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run on is equal lows. That was years before I understood what was being taught
and wycoff. And when did I go back into wycoff and revisit that it was 1997. One
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of the folks that I was working with on one on one basis, because of his trading
model and sharing what he was doing his problems, his gaps and understanding,
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were really the basis of me unlocking more depth to wycoff. So what I was doing
as I was teaching one on one basis, people would come to my home, I would sit
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with them for a week, and I'm explained to them how to trade the s&p in the bond
market. Once in a while, if you want to be a deviant, you would trade
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currencies. Well, the person I was working with, had this affinity towards
wycoff, and didn't want to, you know, relinquishes his hold on it, he, he wanted
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to kind of take pieces of what I was doing, and form fit it and push it into
that idea in that theory. And it wasn't until like two or three weeks after our
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session together for the entire week, I revisited some of his issues. And then
right away, I had, like these epiphanies where I could see more about the things
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that I thought they were occurring in price wycoff has a really simplistic
approach to understanding the run up in the run down, okay, so this would be a
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markup and price. And this is a markdown in price. By far and large, it's too
simplified, you need to know a little bit more about what causes these
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fluctuations in price, because otherwise, it's going to be just like anything
else. The harmonic pattern that worked in hindsight, you know, the trendline,
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the perfect trendline that worked in hindsight, you know, the the ratio trade or
the Fibonacci move, or all these things, you're going to be able to see that in
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hindsight. Now, I'm not disparaging anybody studying hindsight, because that's
how I became inner circle trader, no one was doing mentorships. No one was
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teaching people one on one, no one was doing what you see a lot of educators
doing today. So you have a lot of advantages to you being a trader today,
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because you have a lot of resources, a lot of information and it's right at the
tip of your fingertips, you just reach out and take it off of it. And watch
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videos, watch seminars, be a part of webinars, all those things. But okay, but
simply because the availability is there does not mean that you should be
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consuming in mass quantities, a lot of the nonsense that's perpetuated as
insight or trade education. So I'm going to give you my spin on this, okay, and
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you decide whether or not it's any value. Okay, if it doesn't have any value, if
it doesn't resonate with you, then no, no big deal. You wasted probably about an
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hour with me, okay. But I think that if you investigate it a little bit and dig
into a little bit deeper, you'll see that you're going to find what you don't
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really know, you want to know right now, you will understand what it is that you
lack. And by having that well, epiphany of your own, you're going to be drawn in
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to learning more about it, and you can go into my free tutorials. And if it
doesn't satisfy your curiosity or your insatiable desire to know more than
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obviously consider my private mentorship. Okay, so
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take a look at the price action here. Okay, and what I want you to look at, if
we have consolidation here Yes, there was a run on stops below this Well, now
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again, mind you, this is a one minute chart the very timeframe that the
professionals and I'm doing this with quotations right now with my hands, the
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professionals will tell you there's only noise on these lower timeframes that no
one no one can do this consistently no one can know what's gonna happen in
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price, one one minute chart and anybody that tells you that they can is a con
man and a liar and run away from them. Okay, that's I'm giving you in fairness,
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the other side of the coin so if you subscribe to that you don't just turn the
video off now and there it is, you've done your you've done your your good deeds
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to protect yourself and save yourself from learning nonsense because then you'll
follow the herd. But for all you apex predators in the making out there if you
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want to stay tuned, this is what we're gonna cover. Now, the consolidation that
we have here we have a run on stops the sell sell the quiddity is taken here we
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have a small little run here comes back into the order block and then has a
displacement. This run here takes out by side liquidity leaving this level of by
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side liquidity and what is by side liquidity, just by stops the anyone that
would be interested in buying above on a breakout or using a stop loss to
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protect a short position. Okay, because if you have to use a buy stop to have
protection. It's the only form of protection we have, in terms of using a stop
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on a short would be a buy. Stop. Above some point of interest, or concern, that
would, in your mind, say the trade is probably not good. And you want to be out
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and limit your losses to whatever that level would be. The price comes back down
into trades, another order block, and I talked about this in the sniper series,
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if you don't want to know more about order blocks, then we have a nice run here,
this rally here, fall short of the big figure, big figures 123, even I have
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learned that there are times when prices run like this, they will and it's
commonly referred to as defending a level and it's not really defending a level,
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it's the algorithm building in sentiment. And I'll talk a little bit that about
that here. Now. I'm going to put some lipstick on the chart, okay. And that's
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some levels and some things, okay. But you're also going to see actual points of
entry and exiting. I'll get to that in later in the video. But for now, just I
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want you to concentrate on the levels I'm going to put on the chart. Okay, so
let's do that now. Alright, so here's we have the consolidation here. Now, this
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is what I deem as a market maker sell model. Okay? We have original
consolidation here. Notice, I'm not talking about the run over here, there.
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That's why cough, I don't care about that, because sometimes it won't have that
little run below, okay? I don't care about that. We have consolidation, we have
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displacement, initial run up, here's the big figure right here. 123. Price runs
up to it. And in my personal algorithm, my view is that this is a suspect rally.
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And they're gonna draw it back lower, because people will see that as a short
forming. And they're defending 123, which is exactly what I want to believe.
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Price as it ran up in here, I went short there. And I will show you the fills in
a moment. But just right now just understand the logic behind what I was doing.
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My expectation was it was going to drop down to here, back into the original
consolidation. And then I could be a buyer, I had a limit order waiting to go
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long there. And here is that Phil. And yes, you'll see all the data for this in
a moment, just for right now. Follow along. I want to sell short here, buy it
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back, and then go long, which is going on here runs up and in the exit is fear.
Okay, exiting along. Above the 123. Big figure. I also had a limit order to sell
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short, above the 123. Big figure. And that's occurring here. Okay, so 123, and
four and a half pips was my entry going short. And this area right in here, I
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teach this as the Smart Money reversal. This is
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a point of accumulation. Okay, so we have a consolidation a run up, I can work
in the high to the low to the high. And then we had a run lower, the Smart Money
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reversal has been confirmed with this breakdown. In this area over here. There's
things I like to look for for order blocks and such. And that's what these down
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close candles are, I expected anticipated a bounce here, we got it, it rallies
back up to the middle of these green candles take the range in the bodies, not
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the wicks because that's the part everybody gets tripped up in retail. The
largest volume is going to be encapsulated in the bodies of the candle. And it
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occurs still on a one minute chart. So please, please, please consider where you
get your information from. Because there's so much information out there that is
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just complete and utter nonsense. And it does not matter if they came from
Goldman Sachs. It does not matter if they came from XYZ bank. It does not
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matter. These people out there that say that stuff. They don't know what they're
talking about. And all they have to do is watch me on a weekly basis and I will
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rip their theories to shreds. So that's my only soapbox moment, I promise. So we
have this runoff in here that's a bearish order block about the midpoint of
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that. Okay, is what I teach is a mean threshold. It basically goes up the middle
of that as it was running up in there. That's when I sold short another portion.
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I was already short up here, right in here. I added more there and anticipated a
run below these equal lows. That's the market maker so model that's mine. That's
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not wycoff that's not anything else out there. Okay, it's mine. So my exits were
limit orders right here just below these equal lows. Now there's other things
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that I teach that tells you exactly where this low forms and where this low
forms, but because I'm doing it in public, it's not important. This is enough.
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Selling here buying it here selling it here selling more Have it here. And in
getting out here, folks, you just don't see these types of fills and exits and
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understanding and price action by anybody else out there. Simply put, no one
else is doing this done. How did I know about it? What were the things about
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this, that kind of like gave me the confidence to trade off of it. The lows that
were forming over here is 122 70. So 122 70, it was creating a dealing range low
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dealing ranges anywhere between two price points that are very clearly defined
as what would otherwise be referred to as a trading range. But the problem is,
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it's not a specific or static range. It's an evolving range. So we have the
initial range from this high to this low. I'm focusing on this here to here for
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the concept of the market maker, sell model. That's the fractal I'm envisioning
in price, it gave me the basis for the setups. Now, don't get mixed up thinking
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that this only works on a one minute chart, I want you to kind of broaden your
understanding and your and your perspective. And consider if this was a hourly
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chart, or if this was a daily chart, or four hour chart, or even a weekly chart,
Heck, even a monthly chart. This pattern still exists on all timeframes. What
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that does for you is it makes these points of entry and uncovering and buying
and getting out much more larger in magnitude and opportunity in terms of pips,
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I don't care about long term, long term trading, if you I just don't have the
personality that matches up for that. But I teach how to do these things on any
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timeframe. So you're not limited, you're not limited to scalping, which is what
this is, for intraday trading with a 15 minute or 60 minute chart, or four hour
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chart for short term trading, or a daily chart for swing trading, or weekly
chart for position long term trading. You're not limited. So everything I'm
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teaching here or illustrating really is a better term for it is that you can see
what is likely to occur if you understand order flow.
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So
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we have 120 to 70 it consolidates from then we have a displacement, we have an
initial run up. Now I know some of you are saying, Well, how do you know? or How
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did you know? It wasn't going to go through that 123 big figure. That part? I'm
just going to have to keep to myself. And there's some of you already pissing
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and moaning Oh, man, I'll see you ain't teaching anything. That part of them not
teaching, okay. But I want you to understand that there are certain measures
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that you can do in price action world at the time, and how fast it moves. And
what characteristics are in play one price right now that you will pick up with
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a little bit of insight and in a lot of study. Okay, so trust me, no one taught
me this. It was a matter of me digging into it. This part here buying it down
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here that is classic ICT that's classic return back to the original
consolidation for re accumulation of Long's. So you buy it here, expands up and
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reaches this initial run here. In theory, I'm just gonna tell you here, this
part of it, I knew that they were selling a narrative that they want price in a
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high around 123. Why did I believe that? Because yesterday, we had a really nice
run in cable. And generally, there's gonna be some measure of retracement and
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they're gonna come back and run on the funds. So the funds liquidity are what's
gonna really tap into now large trading funds and working off a one minute
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chart, I will grant you that some of your just chickenhead Oh, they don't
venture. I never really said that. But I already know what you're thinking. So
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if we know that they're going to likely run to 123. And they have a real quick
run like this. Usually it's going to be in two stages. You have the
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consolidation and runs up initially. Then you have the retracement. Wait, I'm
going to sell short here just to prove that I know what I'm doing. And then
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buying it back on a limit down here with the expectation of running 123 big
figure. I knew 123 is high probability and also knew he was a really, really
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high probability because of the high that they left here. People are going to
see that spike up and they see that wick and all of a sudden they go out there,
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Steve Nielsen, book, candlesticks, and all going else and they think that it's
too high. And they're going to be going short in here. With your stop loss above
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this initial high. That point of liquidity creates a pocket of willing buyers.
Well that's exactly what I want to tap into because I'm bought down here. So I'm
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going to have a ability to give my long way to somebody that will likely wants
to buy it at a higher price. So those buy stocks that they sold short here
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they're protected by stock is a mechanism to protect them from a larger loss.
They think if this high is taken out, they're wrong to their plan. They're
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willful order to buy the market covering their short position. This is the
premise to reading the tape. It builds a narrative understanding what's going on
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who's at play who, who's in the market right now, who stands to lose money and
who's making money right now, that's always the questions that's going through
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my mind all the time, as I'm watching price. I sold to those buy stuffs, and
then I also sold short. To those buy stuffs, I used this pool of liquidity above
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this high above the big finger on both sides of the coin. I use it to exit my
long and then I went short on limit. As price broke this swing low here, that's
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a break in market structure, I teach that this initial rally here, that's your
low risk. So what makes it a low risk. So the narrative is already in play. They
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ran the stops here, consolidation, everybody now that's long has their stop
below these equal lows. That's what I'm going to target next. From my initial
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short, and in my low risk entry for selling short.
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You can see my entry here. And then the exit point is right at these equal lows
simply because anything else down here teaches mentorship level. But all the
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things I just taught here is basically all free level content. Now, there's
other levels in here that I have not commented on. And that is the 122 80 and
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then 122 90 level. Whenever we have a level that's round number, like 123, you
commonly hear referred to as a psychological level. And there's really nothing
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psychological about it. It's a matter of layered liquidity. Okay, so what I mean
by that, there's orders like I just told you, I tapped into exiting and entering
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one, because big figure 123 is the level that most people want to trade at. But
larger traders like to work their orders just beyond that big figure because of
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what I just explained over here. And working with the liquidity and the
narrative that's built around this particular fractal in GBP USD. So selling
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above 123, big figure, that would have been a specific setup that I teach,
that's trading the big figure. Having a low resistance liquidity run, which is
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what I teach in month one of my mentorship. That is the basis of hitting the
ground running as a trader, if you have no understanding of how to find
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consistency in trading, my first month in mentorship, that content will
absolutely put you in a position where you'll see setups all the time. There's
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they're everywhere every single day. That's why I have a kind of like a
trademark expression that's used on my Twitter feed all the time, which is every
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week, every day, and it won't stop. That's our trademark, that's our mentorship,
you know, motto. I can find liquidity every single timeframe, every single
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trading day in every single market or asset class. It's the same thing
everywhere. It's not a it's a secret sauce only works in forex, it's not. I've
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done this stuff in bonds, I did this in the s&p 500. I traded in futures
markets, currency markets, the corn market, pork bellies, when they used to
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trade I did all these same things in those markets. Okay, so don't think that
I'm just a one trick pony, or these concepts only apply to forex, because they
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don't, they're completely universal. So by having this view on price, I know
that the 120 to 80 level is going to be orders down there. Why? Because that's
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an institutional price level that large traders, large bank traders and order
flow will reside around that at level 123 20, which doesn't exist here could be
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the next run, they go above if they take these highs out here, that will be the
level that would be reasonable to anticipate as a upside draw on liquidity,
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because this pool of liquidity has been already purged. What resides now is the
non existent price delivery at the moment of this recording of 123 20. And I'm
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just going to put this in here from odonates. Sadly, I have it for study too. I
do this as well. I teach my students to take screen captures and preserve
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moments before and I'm doing that now. That's in my clipboard. So haven't might
need it when I post it later on to my notes for later on. Alright, so we have
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below these equal lows. We have sell side liquidity and what is that at sell
stops. Okay, so we have a pool of liquidity that's been built up with a willing
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participants Wanting to sell at lower prices when price was up here, below these
levels, there's someone that's long. So that collective group, which I don't
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care to know who they are, I didn't know that there are people long. They did
not cause the buying pressure. Okay. Okay, this is all repricing. This is
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algorithmic, this occurs because the price delivery from the central bank is
always constantly moving up and down, up and down. And the algorithm works on a
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time basis. Okay, time and price. Where has it been in recent time? Well, it's
been here. So once it's moved away, and it creates this run in price begins to
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spool out creates pours price action in here, it will want to come back and
rebalance that at logical levels. And then reprice higher to attack the highs
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above here, the algorithm that does not really see your stop, okay? Now my say
the markets run your stop. It's autonomous. It's not completely
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what it used to be, where manually, people would literally say, Okay, this is
where the next price is going to be at. Right now. It's algorithmically in in
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prices delivered that way, manually, any time, the central banks can come in and
reprice and do whatever they want to do, because it's their commodity prices,
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their product, they have control over it, you can argue about that all you want,
this market is too big to be manipulated all that stuff, that garbage that's you
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promoted in this industry, it's nonsense. Because if anything like that was
true, I wouldn't be this precise. And it wouldn't be week after week, day after
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day example, after example, this type of precision, you don't get this unless
you understand how prices are delivered from an algorithmic stance. From up
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here, and here, I'm targeting willing participants that want to sell to GBP USD,
at that low price. Now, when they bought long in here, they're not thinking I
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would love to sell GBP USD down here. That's not what they want. They don't want
to do that. It's just a protective mechanism, their stop loss. But the market
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efficiency paradigm, which is what I teach as a collective, what price is up
here, I'm not thinking it's going to keep going higher, I'm not looking at this
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as some kind of early stage of a 123, or some kind of a measured move, I'm not
looking at any of that stuff, I'm looking at the liquidity that resides or
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resided above 123. And I seen this over here and said, Okay, this is a no
brainer, I'm gonna sell short here and here and attack that liquidity right
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here. Because it's obvious. It's equal lows. I teach this, candidly, publicly on
Twitter, every single day, something is making these equal highs and equal lows.
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And I attack that I don't look at this as a buy, because it's a double bottom, I
look at that as this is fresh meat. This is a victim waiting to bleed out. Now
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that may be a little graphic, it may be a little, maybe a little concerning for
some of the sensitive folks. But I view the market with a predator mindset. I
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don't care about your feelings. And I don't care if you're upset if you lose
your money. And the other side of that trade. That's this business. And if
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you're not prepared for that, you're in the wrong industry, you got to get out
of here, because it's going to eat your lunch, it's going to hurt your feelings,
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it's going to dash your hopes, it's going to be hard, you're going to struggle,
and it's going to feel like you're never getting it unless you learn from
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someone that knows what they're doing. Between these equal lows and the level
123. There are specific price levels, and we round them to the nearest 10th
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level. And that's 2280 and 2290. The reasons why just as we mentioned here, the
liquidity that would rescue me between these blows, right below was 122 70. And
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in 123, you have 1.2 90, which they will have orders in there as well. And you
can see the order flow around that price level 2018. Same thing, really nice by
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keying off of that. You see my feels and then run above the liquidity for 123. I
saw liquidity. The expansion that took place here, it's creeping lower creeping
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lower creeping lower this type of formation where it's elongated and spread out
over time. This is only because it's on such a short timeframe one minute, the
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larger the timeframe, the more I guess compressed these, these moments like
this, this in this that's generally what you would see one more level of all
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this elongated controlling price between The high here and the low in here. All
of this would be really, in maybe, maybe three or four or five candles, not so
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many candles here. Okay, so the only thing that would subscribe to in view of
orderflow only one minute chart is because of the element of time being one
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minute. It only thing it does is it distorts, if you will, the measure of amount
of time, it stays in the fractal. So what I mean by that is how much time did it
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stay in this little consolidation before it expanded up, how much time to spend
in its consolidation on paper before broke down, how much time you spend in this
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consolidation before we broke down. When you're in a lower lower timeframes,
like five minute, one minute, the part that builds the next move before it
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expands higher or lower, whether you're losing the market maker, buy or sell
model, this is again, so much what makes it a sell model is they can they
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consolidate price, they hold their to allow sentiment to build
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breakout artists, breakout artists, so they reward the buyers here. So that way
they can put their stop loss down here that builds in or engineers liquidity. So
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when they run up to that 123 big figure, smart money and people like myself that
are waiting for that to go short, we know that this is the move it's going to be
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running on this is the area of liquidity that this run will tap into at a later
time, the measure of time will be again skewed on a lower one minute chart
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because of it's a one minute chart, price is not moving because of one minute or
five minutes, 15 minutes, 60 minute, 30 minute, three minute 62nd tick chart, it
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has nothing to do with it. It's just giving you a visual representation of where
it's at right now in respect to what has traded in the past. Okay, so when we
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have an understanding of order flow and how we understand open float, and we
understand what the narrative is, and what they're building, why should they
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take price to certain levels? And what did they leave intact? That's this, okay.
When you understand that you're not caught off guard, you're not surprised
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you're not confused. You're, you're focused, you know exactly what you're
looking for. You're not trying to chase price, nothing in here is chasing price
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this is, this is exactly what a trader wants to know. Okay, I want to first step
down on the scenes with baby pips calm. I went to that forum in 2010. And just
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said, Look, I know what you're looking for. I know, I know exactly what you as a
developing trader want to know. And I know the things that you don't even know
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you want to know yet. That's how far ahead of the curve I am. Now, it's not I'm
not here to, I'm not here to beat my chest. I'm just here to be the other side
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of the coin. When these folks that are supposed to professionals, get out there
and post videos on YouTube and say that lower timeframes are just noise and
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anyone that tells you they can time the market when these lower timeframes as a
con man, they're a liar and run away. Okay, let's look at the actual Phil's
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here. Right? This is the part that everybody likes to worry about here. Okay.
And I did this today because it's on YouTube. And I'm satisfying the little itch
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that these guys usually the younger guys, like the 20 year old or so, they like
to see these numbers here. And these, this is the least important. Okay, this is
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the least important. I want you to focus on the prices, okay, these prices, and
how we move from these price points up here. Okay, from here,
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to here.
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And from here. And here. And here. Okay. So it's not, it's not meant to say Look
how smart I am. And look how much money I'm making. Because I've illustrated
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this with a demo account. I'm very clear about this as an educator, because in
the United States, we have governing bodies that are very, very motivated to
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protect people from scam artists from Ponzi schemes and from people that would
otherwise hurt you. My intentions are not to hurt you. I want you to be
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stimulated to learn more about this. And it doesn't really necessarily mean that
you join my mentorship because joining the mentorship cost money, you have to
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pay $155 for 12 months, and then you pay $150 conversion fee. And that's it. It
doesn't happen anymore. You don't pay anymore. I had to raise the money or
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charge for it. But because PayPal has increased after three years working with
them. They're the only payment processor that I use. So it's you Can't do
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PayPal, you can't be part of my mentorship, and I apologize. But it's just the
way it is I'm sorry. So once you are in the mentorship, and you pay your 12
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months, and you pay your charter conversion fee, that means you're done paying,
but you have access to everything that you paid for. and ongoing education, and
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you're part of the community, I am not a for life membership, you don't keep
paying me forever, just to be a part of the group. But you do have to pay for
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your seat. Your seat is the charter seat charter is continued learning without
having to pay for it. I have people that joined in 2016, their charter members,
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they have not paid me a dime, since they paid for the conversion fee and charter
membership has done it. That's just that's what you're paying for you're paying
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to be part of my community. And I talk about what the markets are going to most
likely do outline things that will possibly unfold. And I'll leave it up to you
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to decide I have a lot of people that are in my mentorship, a lot of people. And
they will tell you in the comments that I'm lying, if I tell you that we are in
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a 90% bracket in terms of our long term analysis, and the suggested outlines
that would price should move. I do this on an hourly chart and on a 15 minute
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chart and on a daily chart, you're looking at me doing it on a one minute chart.
The problem with this is going to be some of you that have been in this industry
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for a while know that the scams that associate themselves with using. I just had
a guy mention it on on Twitter. And I don't know if I'm using a strategy tester
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or something to effect these moves. Okay, or done on a one minute chart. But
it's the same thing that I do an outline on a 15 minute chart, an hourly chart,
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and on a daily chart, and I only do two videos per week. I do it on Wednesday,
and on Friday. And when you're doing that level of higher timeframe analysis and
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it still unfolds to the PIP. There's no back testing strategy tester that I
can't do that, that you're talking about time travel now. Okay. All I did by
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using the one minute chart here is answer rather is to answer it in a very
convincing fashion, I believe that there's really not noise on this timeframe,
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it's the same thing price is going to be the same on all timeframes. Like when
you're looking at price action, and it's saying that it's offering price at
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122 93. Okay, everyone's chart platform is going to be really close to that
122 93, there's going to be slightly different variants, because of brokers,
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offering spreads, and spreads are going to vary across brokers. This price
delivery, it doesn't make a difference. It does not make a difference, what
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timeframe you're using, because prices price, if you look at price, going your
own. Okay. And this is what this is one of the paradigm shifts that took place
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for me, because I was always trying to seek the best timeframe, which is the
timeframe that banks are using right now. That was my initial question I put in
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my trading journals back in the 90s. Because I wanted to know what timeframe
they were using, because if I could use that timeframe, shoot, I would have it
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all figured out then because I knew how I'm doing the bull flags and the trend
lines and the head and shoulders. All that stuff. That doesn't work. Okay, my
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view back then was, you know, it's
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the timeframe. That's got to be it. That's the timeframe. The banks. I was every
week, I was changing my mind about what was the right thing, the secret sauce.
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And its liquidity. That's the thing that's outside of your chart that makes this
whole thing work. It's where the money is, okay? Where are the orders? Because
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if you understand that, you won't be tripped up by any of these goober patterns,
okay, that people break books and sell courses about that has no basis for why
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price is going up and down has nothing to do with why prices moving. But it
sells books. It feels Mehmed our seats and workshops on the weekend. Everybody
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dog piles in that kind of stuff, because they think they're getting something of
value. And they're just getting one more gimmick that doesn't hold water. So
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what did you learn here today? Well, probably not a whole lot. But this is just
to instigate a moment in time for you to decide whether or not there's any
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validity to the things I talked about. years, hundreds of hours of videos that
are available in free format. It doesn't cost you any money to see if I'm full
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of crap or not. Just because I'm doing this And I wasn't telling you before it
happened because I do not give signal services. I do not tell people in the
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mentorship. We're going to buy here we're going to sell here, I tell them where
the markets going to go. In my course material, I teach how to pull out the
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system, the signal that setup the pattern, the take profit, where the stock goes
all that is in the teachings. I play spotter, you're the sniper, I point, you
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shoot, you learn that way. You don't learn by me saying, All right, I'm buying
here, Everybody put your stock round, put my stuff, right, put your take profit,
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right, that that's not mentorship. That's not what I do. That's not what I do at
all, on Wednesday, and midweek, let me say it that way, at the end of the week,
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okay, usually on a Friday or Saturday, I do a weekly review. And I talk about
what we saw transpire in paying out or what's left in the marketplace to still
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likely pan out. Or I will tell you, I need more information. And I'm waiting for
Monday's trading. And then I'll update the group if there's something that is of
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importance. Otherwise, on Wednesday, midweek, I do our midweek review. And again
I talk about what has happened. And then I outline what reasons are in play for
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the market to behave a certain way and trade up to a specific level or down to a
specific level. And what conditions would be there to negate either one of those
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things, I do not go in there and say, Here's scenario a, okay? And if it does
this, I'm gonna look smart. And I don't say here's scenario B. And if it works
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out like that, I'm smart, I tell you exactly what side of the the market I'm
favoring. And, again, if I'm lying, my mentorship group is welcome in the
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comment section to say, I'm exaggerating that I'm lying, that I'm
misrepresenting, they are welcome to do so. But if I'm not lying, and you don't
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see a flood of people, and I'm not gonna be deleting comments in the comment
section, from people that are saying that their mentorship level, because if
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they come in and say their mentorship level, and they say I'm embellishing on
the truth here, the other members will come in and say that they're lying, okay,
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so I'm not going to be deleting anything. So nonetheless, you don't have to like
me as a person. Okay, I've never been here to try to be everyone's friend, I
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came out just to answer all of the bull that is on baby pips back then. And
still to this day, the things that you are fed as a steady diet in learning how
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to trade, how to invest, how to make money, what things work in the marketplace,
I'm telling you 99.99999% of it is bull, it will lose money, you will lose money
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in the time that you do when you're going to falsely attribute it to skill or
your system. And it had nothing to do with it. Nothing to do with it prices
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doing what it does, from an algorithmic standpoint, and it's pre-determined,
it's all buy time and price. And I don't care. If you don't believe me, I don't
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care. I make a living at this, okay, I predict this stuff every single week,
every single week, and I show examples of it every single week on Twitter, and
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it costs you nothing, but it's simple look at it. And here it is. Most of my
videos are 45 seconds long. And it's done.
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My rants, they could be a little bit long. But the things I tweet are generally
answers to emails. Okay, so I don't have a whole lot of time. And most of my
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responses, if I do respond by email is very short, much like a tweet. Okay, very
short to the point. I try not to have long, lengthy conversations, like some of
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the rather we do with you an email, I just don't have the luxury of time. And
most of the time when I'm tweeting, out and about. And I'm doing that while I'm
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doing other things. So I'm not sitting home, in my basement, okay, in the dark.
With the Marvel character posters around me and popcorn kernels on the floor,
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and potato chips all broken up in my lap. I'm literally doing other things, I'm
walking somewhere, I'm out and about waiting for my lunch to be served to me or
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I'm going out to dinner and I'm waiting for that. I'm doing other things when
I'm doing it. So just know that there are things that you're going to learn with
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me, that's going to be unsettling. Because I'm going to ruffle your feathers and
really challenge your tried and trued love of a certain style of a certain
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mentor, a certain approach to trading. I'm going to upset that. And I'm telling
you, I'm going to do it ahead of time and I'm telling you also i'm not
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apologizing for it. Because if I could go back in time, I want to know the
things I tell you all. I would love to have been told and shown example after
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example from someone that knows how to do this. That would have saved me
fortunes. It would have saved me peace of mind. It would have saved me money.
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relationships, able to save me my health. Those are the problems that you're
going to get. If you don't listen, if you just want to go through this world and
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invest in feel like you're smart, and you figured it all out, well be my guest.
There's people that make money and not trade, but I do. I'm not oblivious to
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that I know that occurs. But if we were sitting in a one on one, and compare and
contrast notes and experiences, I can tell you that I don't feel any of those
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things that you're going to tell me you feel, I don't have any of those
adversities, I don't have any of the confusion, I don't have any of the doubts.
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I don't have any of that stuff. I know exactly what I'm doing, when I'm going to
do it, and why I know what I can do in price action. And I also know, when
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there's times in the marketplace, I'm just really not interested in most people,
most people don't have that level of confidence, which is very, very frequently
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viewed as arrogance. And it's not arrogance, it's just confidence. And once you
learn how to do it effectively, yourself, you will know what it means to be this
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confident. It's not arrogance, it's not pomp, it's literally knowing what you're
doing. Are you a pompous, arrogant person, because you know how to do your job
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and you go to every day, when people come in to visit, they see you doing a job?
Are you arrogant? Because you're doing it right? And you understand why you're
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doing everything you're doing? No, of course not. You're versed, you are
initiated, you know what you're doing. Outwardly people that watch me and he
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listened to me, they you know, either I'm going to be loved by you, or I'm going
to be like fingernails on a chalkboard, it's going to be just irritating. I'm
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okay with either one of them. Because it doesn't take away from me, I still do
what I'm going to do. And there's nothing changing it. I know any given day of
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the week, I can go in and do what I'm doing here. Every single day, I just don't
have the time to do it every single day because I'm doing every other thing that
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makes me a father, a husband, a brother, a friend, and mentor, and I'm running
businesses. So I do all these things when time is allowing me to do so there's a
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lot of things you're gonna read about me on internet, if you listen and do a lot
of research. Some will say that I can't trade. Some will say that I back out of
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trading contest. Some will say I blew accounts, all that stuff was when I was
trolling and trying to be fun, and just not taking myself serious. In recent
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months, last 19 months, I have been all business on social media and showing
exactly what I've always been able to do. And I had I have to do that because
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I'm running a business. Before that, you know, I could be taken as a comic
online, okay. And don't be taking me serious on it. Like I had fun.
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But I want you to really, if you're going to take the time, balance everything.
Don't just take someone's opinion about me. dig into it yourself. And you see,
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because I promise you, you will learn things that no one will teach you anywhere
else. I'll talk to you next time. wish good luck in your trading.