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049-ict-tw-spaces-2023-09-20-Post-FOMC

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-09-26 12:54

Outline

00:36 - FOMC rate announcement and market volatility.

- ICT discusses FOMC rate announcements and their potential impact on liquidity.
- I don't try to predict Fed rate changes, as it's a gamble and doesn't impact my trading decisions.

04:19 - Trading strategies and market analysis.

- ICT provides a trading strategy based on FOMC announcements.
- Ict expected price to reach 1542 but it didn't, instead breaking lower at 230.
- ICT identifies bearish breakout at 235 minute high on five minute chart.

11:43 - Trading and market analysis.

- Trader seeks to accumulate short position while price is in a specific area of the chart.
- Ict regrets not sticking with a profitable trade due to anger and impulsiveness.

15:46 - Trading struggles and second-guessing.

- The speaker struggles with focus and anger while trading, leading to impulsive decisions.
- The speaker's inner monologue reveals a mix of frustration and self-awareness, highlighting the complexity of their thought process during trading.
- Trader struggles with self-doubt and negative thinking during trading session.
- ICT struggles with self-doubt and second-guessing during a volatile market session.

23:13 - Trading, mental health, and dealing with criticism.

- ICT warns of overleveraging and mental scar tissue in trading, emphasizing the importance of preparation and praising God in difficult moments.
- ICT struggles with taking partial profits due to mental torment.
- ICT expresses frustration with online trolls and haters, and struggles with bipolar disorder.
- ICT threatens to leave social media in November and vows to outperform any critics in a real trading account.

Transcript

1 00:00:36 --> 00:00:53 ICT: Good afternoon, folks. All right, so I had a little bit of difficulty managing myself today. I did a Twitter space through tweets. So I apologize. If
2 00:00:53 --> 00:01:04 that was offensive to any of you that sometimes I just, I can't stand when people try to play position with me or psychologist, you're not my doctor. So
3 00:01:05 --> 00:01:23 I'm interested in hearing your bullshit. So today FOMC. And I had some things I shared this morning on tweets. And I had an interest in that 15,004 42 by side,
4 00:01:24 --> 00:01:39 post 9am. Every time I refer to time, it's New York local time. So I was wanting to see if we could take both sides of the liquidity, though, I framed out today.
5 00:01:41 --> 00:01:53 And we were unwilling to get up to the buy side that I was interested in. But I was giving room for it to do so at two o'clock, and then 230, not knowing what
6 00:01:53 --> 00:02:03 side they're going to run for initially. So we like to look at FOMC, when they're doing the rate announcements, that type of thing, not the minutes, the
7 00:02:03 --> 00:02:12 minutes are not all that terribly important. But sometimes they can surprising and provide a little bit of volatility. But whenever there's a rate
8 00:02:12 --> 00:02:21 announcement, whenever they are going to be doing something like we saw today, and I don't even know what they did, I don't care to know, I don't know, if
9 00:02:21 --> 00:02:33 anybody can find any value in trying to predict whether they're going to be raising things unchanged, or lowering interest rates, I think it's pretty much a
10 00:02:33 --> 00:02:46 gamble. When people do that. And frankly, they can do something that would otherwise be expected in price action after the whatever consensus was, you
11 00:02:46 --> 00:02:54 know, if they're going to raise rates, leave them unchanged, or lower them, whatever that effect would have on the market. Sometimes you can do the
12 00:02:54 --> 00:03:04 opposite, or do nothing. Right. So that's why I don't try to concern myself. When I was younger man, I tried very hard to decipher all that and try to figure
13 00:03:04 --> 00:03:16 it out. You know, what the Fed was dealing with all their monetary statements and trying to determine hawkish, dovish, all that business. And I never really
14 00:03:16 --> 00:03:23 could figure it out, because ultimately, they're going to do what they're going to do. And you're not going to be able to be consistent with determining what
15 00:03:23 --> 00:03:31 they're going to do and how the markets gonna react to it. Okay, that's, that's my consensus on it so that I get a lot of questions as to what, what do I look
16 00:03:31 --> 00:03:42 for? And do I have any kind of insight into what they come out with? I don't care. Okay, I follow interest rates on a longer term, but about a minute
17 00:03:42 --> 00:03:53 fluctuations or the day of the change or no change at all, that doesn't really have that much of an impact on me. Because it's the volatility I'm looking for,
18 00:03:53 --> 00:04:11 I want to see what they run for. An FOMC is a two stage setup. I'm looking for, you know, how the market behaves at two o'clock, and how it behaves at 230. So
19 00:04:11 --> 00:04:25 it's with that in mind, I want to talk about this today. And I have about 25 minutes. So I will be here on a time basis today. So to me real short. I'll know
20 00:04:25 --> 00:04:32 I'm done because the stimulator I'm wearing on my back will be off by then. So I'll close when that happens. But if you look at your NASDAQ chart, and you're
21 00:04:32 --> 00:04:44 welcome to do this also, when we're done with the ES and Dow futures, it's going to be beneficial for you to do so. But if you pull up a five minute chart on MQ
22 00:04:44 --> 00:04:50 on trading view, and QZ isn't zipper two, zero to three, it's a five minute basis. I'll give you a moment to get that loaded up.
23 00:04:57 --> 00:05:06 I know some of you'd like to put these on your YouTube channel. counts. But unless you put up with a chart that you're following along with you, really
24 00:05:06 --> 00:05:20 you're doing your your viewers a disservice. You're gonna make the ad revenue, do the work. So at two o'clock, if you place your cursor, or your mouse around
25 00:05:20 --> 00:05:31 the two o'clock candle and the five minute chart of n, QC two, zero to three, you'll see the candle at two o'clock has a low of 15,002 86, even. And then at
26 00:05:31 --> 00:05:49 two o'clock, what happens? The market rallies. And it rallies exactly to a high formed on the 230. candle, a 15,392. Even now, what was that run? That was the
27 00:05:49 --> 00:06:12 first stage. Okay. Some of you may have looked at the movement at 155, dropping down to two o'clock, thinking, well, that's the first move. No. No, the rules I
28 00:06:12 --> 00:06:28 gave you, for FOMC is what? At two o'clock. That's the fake move. That's Did you to swing, not every time, not 100% at a time, the majority of time. So it's a
29 00:06:28 --> 00:06:40 two o'clock New York local time on FOMC. We have to allow for the market to do what, whatever the hell it wants to do. Yes, we can have an idea what it could
30 00:06:40 --> 00:06:53 reach for. And in my mind, I was allowing for 15,004 42, I wanted to see that maybe even run a little bit higher. I didn't care. I didn't care how far really
31 00:06:53 --> 00:07:04 it went. But if I was going to see a further decline at two o'clock, that started at 155. But it would have been obviously seen in price. But we're
32 00:07:04 --> 00:07:14 looking at it here. And obviously you can see I traded with real money today. And I'm gonna give you some insights as to what I was using what I was looking
33 00:07:14 --> 00:07:21 for that way you can find it in your charts, and it's interactive, it's better this way. And it's gonna save me the time to do some video tonight, which I
34 00:07:21 --> 00:07:33 don't have the patience for, admittedly, a little bit of a roller coaster today. So at two o'clock, you want to put your cursor or your mouse right on that five
35 00:07:33 --> 00:07:52 o'clock, I'm sorry, a five minute rather at two o'clock pm candle for September 20 2023. That low starts that price run up to the 235 Minute candle. And what is
36 00:07:52 --> 00:08:05 it actually doing when it gets up there? It's running out the buyside liquidity that's just above the 1:20pm. Five Minute Hi. So those BizStats resting just
37 00:08:05 --> 00:08:14 about that. So they ran that level there. It didn't take the 15 442 level that I shared that I was interested in. And I thought they would get smoked. I
38 00:08:14 --> 00:08:27 mentioned that in the comment section or chat window of top spaces livestream this morning. Like I felt fairly confident that we would see that two instances
39 00:08:27 --> 00:08:36 this morning, I thought they would reach for it. They didn't do it. And I thought they would reach for it at two o'clock. They didn't do it. That's fine,
40 00:08:36 --> 00:08:51 I don't care. But when the market broke down at 230 it starts to break lower break lower break lower. I wanted to see it get below the high that formed at
41 00:08:51 --> 00:09:09 230 That went above the high that was at 155. So on the five minute candle stick chart at 1:55pm that high it was pierced by the 235 Minute high or candlestick.
42 00:09:10 --> 00:09:28 See that down back into that two o'clock candle the low we have that wick or I guess it'd be considered the tail below the closing price. If you look at the
43 00:09:28 --> 00:09:38 midpoint of that or consequent encouragement, it's roughly 15,300 The market traded up in there was several candles were whipped through it a few times it
44 00:09:38 --> 00:09:53 was on the 255 candlestick and the three o'clock so both of those candles was whipsawing around in there. What is three o'clock? That's the hour where
45 00:09:53 --> 00:10:06 everything's in motion now. You have the final hour of New York session trading the dammit Just been done at FOMC. The first move was the rally higher, it took
46 00:10:06 --> 00:10:24 what by stops, it broke lower. And now rate at three o'clock we're seeing what it's trading inside of the bearish candle that formed at two o'clock inside of
47 00:10:24 --> 00:10:37 its tail or the wick below the closing price, which is a bearish breaker. I don't need you don't need to see it break away from it, come back up and retest
48 00:10:37 --> 00:10:46 because I am not what I'm not a break and retest trader, I've been trying to tell you that for a long time, just like I'm not a supply and demand trader. So
49 00:10:47 --> 00:10:58 my PDA arrays, I don't need to see them be treated as a support resistance. I'm keying off my entries within the context of what these pdra should be implying
50 00:10:58 --> 00:11:12 the market should be doing. The markets have seen the buy stops taken on the high at 155 at 230 and rated them at 235. It stayed above a little again, a
51 00:11:12 --> 00:11:23 little more time but didn't go as high as the high formed at 230. This is all on a five minute chart in the market broke lower. And we started consolidating
52 00:11:23 --> 00:11:40 inside of the tale of the candlestick at two o'clock. Look at the candlestick at 255. You see how we traded up it all we back down again. Next candle we traded
53 00:11:41 --> 00:11:53 up, created a wick and right back down. So there was two little tiny indecisive candles. According to Steve Nielsen, that would be something indecisive or Dodi
54 00:11:53 --> 00:12:07 okay, I'm trying to trade inside of the tail of the two o'clock candle. Because if this thing's going to rip lower, I might not get that retest, that I could
55 00:12:07 --> 00:12:20 add to. If I'm going short, if I want to be short, I may not get the retest of that two o'clock, candles low or the consequent encroachment of that tail or
56 00:12:20 --> 00:12:32 that wick on two o'clock candle. So I want to be accumulating my short position while it's in there, at the start of what the last hour trading three o'clock.
57 00:12:32 --> 00:12:46 So at 250, the 310. There's a macro. And that 20 minute period, I thought that I teach you that there's going to be a measure of spooling where price will want
58 00:12:46 --> 00:13:02 to run. It'll be directional. It'll seek liquidity, or run for inefficiency. Now I shared the price run that was measuring the two o'clock, five minute low to
59 00:13:02 --> 00:13:13 the 230. Hi. So if you take your Fibonacci and if you haven't looked at the B share today, you want to draw your fib between those two points to 230 and a two
60 00:13:13 --> 00:13:27 o'clock and your standard deviation should be projecting a negative standard deviation one, what's come to 15,001 80. Now I thought that was pretty well, low
61 00:13:27 --> 00:13:39 hanging fruit. I'll show you how I could have got a lower one. But I was not balanced today. I went off the rails in Twitter. And I kind of regretted it
62 00:13:39 --> 00:13:51 because I'm not doing a very good job of controlling myself. And as the wrestling match that I live with every day, but as price broke below the 15,000
63 00:13:51 --> 00:14:05 to 48 and a half level. That's that blue level I showed you on the view. That is the low formed on Tuesday at 10:35am. September 19 2023. So if you don't have
64 00:14:05 --> 00:14:14 that on your five minute chart, just grab the time axis, hold your cursor on it and drag it over to the right. And you'll see it appear in your chart. That's
65 00:14:14 --> 00:14:26 where that level came from. So I wanted to see it dig underneath that because there will be sell stocks below that. So if I'm selling short inside of that
66 00:14:26 --> 00:14:41 bearish breaker that's forming on the two o'clock 2pm Five Minute candle. I don't want to miss this move. I am anticipating a draw down into the very
67 00:14:41 --> 00:14:56 minimum 15,000 to 48. I'm gonna see get down there. It could go lower. I wanted to go lower. But my mind was not allowing me to focus. I was mad. I was rage. I
68 00:14:56 --> 00:14:56 was enraged.
69 00:15:00 --> 00:15:18 So even though you saw me make $11,000 in this one single trade, I'm not pleased with myself because I did it at a time when I shouldn't. And I teach you not to
70 00:15:18 --> 00:15:29 do this. So that's why I'm talking to you. And if I say it in a manner that's usually delivered in a Twitter space, I'm trying not to use the language that I
71 00:15:29 --> 00:15:42 usually do. I'm trying to come down from it. I want you to understand that I don't want you thinking that doing what I said I should not have done which is
72 00:15:42 --> 00:15:52 turn the chocolate, that should have been what I stuck with. But I had a bone to pick. I just wanted to twist the knife. I wanted to get in there and just show
73 00:15:52 --> 00:16:05 these motherfuckers just who the fuck I am. Okay, and I wrestle with this all the time. And when I see these dickheads making a little bullshit videos, and
74 00:16:05 --> 00:16:13 they go out there and they start their live streams, and they're supposedly up $7,000 That you didn't see them trade. And then when they're live streaming,
75 00:16:13 --> 00:16:25 they blow their ass out in their live stream, just like they did all January. Every single time. Backs last day. That wasn't saying yes. You're trying to get
76 00:16:25 --> 00:16:28 a 10,000 a day, motherfucker. I can do $10,000 trades.
77 00:16:35 --> 00:16:51 And when I have people come at me and try to be my position. On YouTube, I sound like Dr. Jekyll mild mannered on Twitter when I don't have can filter and Mr.
78 00:16:51 --> 00:17:02 Hyde. I'm not proud of him. I don't I this is the part of me I don't want people to know about because it's not very pleasant. I don't want you to learn from
79 00:17:02 --> 00:17:11 this part of me. And just like today, you probably see this. You saw that trade and you're thinking Wow. But you know what I'm telling you, I see this is what I
80 00:17:11 --> 00:17:30 see. Okay? I see the fact that I wanted to see it go to 15,180. But I couldn't focus, I could not focus, I had 1000 Things jumping in front of me. I wanted to
81 00:17:30 --> 00:17:36 give this person a piece of my mind, then I wanted to get on here and apologize to the person and I was like no, I don't want to do that. If I do that something
82 00:17:36 --> 00:17:49 else is gonna be sitting on it even more mad. So that's what it's like to be in my head is 1000 different things constantly jumping in the front of the line. So
83 00:17:49 --> 00:18:05 because while I was in that trade, it was very hard for me to dial in on what it is I wanted to do. Multiple models, multiple objectives, targets. And I didn't
84 00:18:05 --> 00:18:15 want to do any partials. So I just use the easiest one, which was the one below 15,000 to 48 and a half. And I wanted to see a little bit of expansion below it.
85 00:18:15 --> 00:18:32 And I had it. But just 20 minutes later, it rolled down into the 15,180 level. Now and the other day, I would dismiss it. I would say it's okay. It's not a big
86 00:18:32 --> 00:18:46 deal. But today I wrestle with it. Just like you're gonna wrestle with it. This is what you do in your journal. You do not fill it with oh, I messed it up. I
87 00:18:46 --> 00:19:00 did some stupid or I did you just tell yourself that I'm glad that the model was calling for 15,180 and lower. And even though I closed early, I closed in
88 00:19:00 --> 00:19:18 profit. And over time, I will be able to trade with a much better focus and hold for those targets instead of making $11,000 $23,800 could have been made. So
89 00:19:18 --> 00:19:31 there's no room or invitation for negative you know it's there. I know it's there. But you can't bring that into your journal to do that. Invites toxic
90 00:19:31 --> 00:19:43 thinking. And toxic thinking causes a great deal of problems for your executions, your trade management, the psychology of you as a trader while
91 00:19:43 --> 00:19:53 you're in the trade. And there's a lot of things like I wanted to add more, even though I knew was going to go lower. I wanted to add more. But that rule doesn't
92 00:19:53 --> 00:20:04 apply here. I can't do that. I will be outside of the parameters of where I pyramid And if I would have did it wrong, it would have made my whole evening
93 00:20:04 --> 00:20:24 worse. So you saw this morning, the 7000, some dollar run, you saw this one here. And it's on a time in a day that I teach you not to do it. And when I see
94 00:20:24 --> 00:20:36 folks post, and they'll say, but you said, right, what I'm willing to do is not something I want someone that's brand new to try to do. You don't know how to
95 00:20:36 --> 00:20:44 navigate this stuff. You don't know how to fix it. If you have a problem. If you have drawdown, you don't have to fix that. And you're probably going to over
96 00:20:44 --> 00:21:00 leverage. Did you see the over leverage today? It wasn't even 10 contracts. There's risk here today. There's a lot of risks here today. And yes, I was
97 00:21:00 --> 00:21:10 listening to kids livestream or Twitter space. And I heard him going on about somebody sending a DM about how somebody traded and he lost money. Because they
98 00:21:11 --> 00:21:22 looked at something I heard ICT teaches that FMC does, yeah, and did exactly what I teach. That's why I'm sure. That's why you saw me doing it. Because it
99 00:21:22 --> 00:21:33 did the first run from two o'clock to 230 was going wired up. That's the fake run. And the real run is going to be after 230, which directions at the opposite
100 00:21:33 --> 00:21:49 of what two o'clock to 230 was, that's just the way it is, folks. But I wasn't comfortable taking anything throughout the period of 230 to 35 to 40. I didn't
101 00:21:49 --> 00:22:02 trust it. And it wasn't, it didn't give me a PV array that I could trust. And it was a lot up thrust where it has kept going in there more times, and I wanted to
102 00:22:02 --> 00:22:17 see it like I wanted to be one time up there, clear the buy side at three 385. Clear one candle, and then immediately snapped lower. That's what I wanted. But
103 00:22:17 --> 00:22:28 it played around in there too long. So when it does that, I have to let myself sit still. And it was very, very hard today to do that. Because I wanted to go
104 00:22:28 --> 00:22:40 in with a sledgehammer. Like I wanted to go in there and just smash every fucking thing. And it was hard for me, every model that I knew every PDA ran
105 00:22:40 --> 00:22:46 out, everything that's in my mind kept jumping, and jumping and jumping and jumping, jump and like, I don't want that one. And it was all this happening at
106 00:22:46 --> 00:23:02 a time when price is moving around fluctuating. And second guessing myself because I lost focus. And that's very, very, very common. For someone to do
107 00:23:02 --> 00:23:11 that, in a market like today, it's very easy to second guess yourself, it's very easy to think you see something or it doesn't look like it's gonna really do it.
108 00:23:13 --> 00:23:25 And especially if you have no experience or next to none. And you over leverage, you're trying to do more than required or necessary at your stage in
109 00:23:25 --> 00:23:38 development. You can harm yourself and blow your account, you can cause yourself a great deal of trouble and set yourself back a great deal in terms of time and
110 00:23:38 --> 00:23:48 create scar tissue. That mental scar tissue that when you take a loss or you draw down too far or even blow the account or failure combine and by the way, my
111 00:23:48 --> 00:23:57 son checked his email top step has been reaching out to him but they were all going to spam folder. So hopefully, once he gets the information to them,
112 00:23:58 --> 00:24:15 there'll be all sorted and he can get his money but we'll see the the direction like I said majority of time majority of the time is opposite to what two
113 00:24:15 --> 00:24:27 o'clock delivery is to 230 whatever that run is. Whatever that run is you have to prepare yourself for the likelihood to 30 to close it's going to be something
114 00:24:27 --> 00:24:42 different look at your chart. I would have loved I would have loved to had a $31,000 day to sit around here and flaunt but the enemy likes to show up and
115 00:24:42 --> 00:24:52 even before I got on here I was buttering decent bread that hurt eats on so yeah, we couldn't hear my stomach growling and butter bread till on my hand. And
116 00:24:52 --> 00:25:00 then on the counter. I'm thinking myself man alive. These won't let go what me today? Well, you Lily. So when that happens, you just start praising God This
117 00:25:00 --> 00:25:12 praise Him because it's meant for you to be upset, it's meant for you to lose control of yourself. And that's exactly when the storm starts, and you praise
118 00:25:12 --> 00:25:23 him in that storm. And if you resist the devil, he'll flee. So if you take a look at the price run from, look at the low, and I'll say this and close look at
119 00:25:23 --> 00:25:39 the low at three 310. On Sunday, same chart, five minute chart. And you may see that lower there that's a little bit lower than the load, it's over here at 1235
120 00:25:39 --> 00:25:53 on Wednesday AM. So we're looking at the leg on drove fifth, anchored from that low up to the high formed at 9:10am today. So you can take your fib, drop down
121 00:25:53 --> 00:26:03 into that low at 3:10pm on Sunday. And if you have your standard deviations on the fifth as I teach, and I've shown it many times, if you don't know what that
122 00:26:03 --> 00:26:14 is somebody, I'm sure it will show you a screenshot on Twitter, but negative two standard deviation comes in at 15,001 41 and a half. And while that's not the
123 00:26:14 --> 00:26:15 exact low
124 00:26:16 --> 00:26:24 is very, very close. So in my mind, and I obviously, you know, showing you what I did today, certainly what I've done yesterday, and certainly what I've done in
125 00:26:24 --> 00:26:34 the past, and how I teach if I were doing partials, if my mind would have been at ease today not been tormented, I would have been more inclined to take a
126 00:26:34 --> 00:26:47 partial, just below the 15,000 to 48 and a half level, I would have taken a partial at 15,001 80. And I would have tried to get the limit off at 15,001 43.
127 00:26:48 --> 00:26:56 That's where I would have had my limit letter, which would have been one and a half handles above that negative standard deviation of two, negative two. And
128 00:26:56 --> 00:27:10 that would have given me real close to the low but not the actual. So I am I'm human, I know somebody you'd like to pretend like, you know, in the past,
129 00:27:10 --> 00:27:20 there's no way this guy's real. I'm human, and I wrestle with a lot of stuff. And I really would greatly appreciate if folks that are trying to be mean, well
130 00:27:20 --> 00:27:29 or mean, like to help me telling me don't pay attention to haters telling me not to worry about people that troll me, telling me what I should do and how I
131 00:27:29 --> 00:27:40 should think as much as you might think that that might be helpful to me. It really pisses me the fuck off. It really, really sets me off. And I don't like
132 00:27:40 --> 00:27:48 that I don't like to be mothered, okay, my dad didn't raise me. And I don't like to be monitored. And I appreciate and respect the fact that you're trying to do
133 00:27:48 --> 00:27:56 that thing. Do it for me. But I don't take it like that. And then when I have someone else to try to tell me that being bipolar, I treat it like it's a badge
134 00:27:56 --> 00:28:11 of honor. It's not I literally wish I didn't have it. I can't stand it. But many times that's that's the cause for what it is that I do. And it's not an excuse.
135 00:28:11 --> 00:28:19 I'm not leaning on as an excuse. It's not a crutch. It is something that I battle with all the time. Even in the videos where you thought I was talking
136 00:28:19 --> 00:28:27 real real nice on all the YouTube videos. I had episodes and every single one of them that had to edit out. You're just not used to hearing it. And this is what
137 00:28:27 --> 00:28:36 it's like to live with me. And wife my children they've seen this their entire life where I can be nice and mild mannered for no reason this swing to the
138 00:28:36 --> 00:28:45 opposite end. And if I have things that's triggering me it makes it worse. And I can't once it starts I can't I can't pull it back. I can't dial it back, reel it
139 00:28:45 --> 00:28:58 in or whatnot. And then social media is for fucking assholes. wannabes. You want to be profitable traders wouldn't be gurus want to be mentors? Want to be
140 00:28:58 --> 00:29:08 replacements for ICT and so fucking joke, okay, and I cannot wait until November because I am leaving this fucking shit. And I'm gonna be happier for it. Believe
141 00:29:08 --> 00:29:15 me, but just remember when all these motherfuckers talk their bullshit and it makes a little fun in fucking videos. talking all this nonsense. They are
142 00:29:15 --> 00:29:23 falling on their fucking face. And they still never came in Robins and I'm beating your fucking ass with a real account. Binney you little bitch. I'm in
143 00:29:23 --> 00:29:34 and I'm stopping your fucking ass and you can't do nothing can't even come close. You're following your fucking face, you fucking kick racist bitch. And
144 00:29:34 --> 00:29:37 I'll talk to you next time. Be safe.