023-ict-tw-spaces-20230425-The-Sands-Of-Time...
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-04-26 07:09
Outline
00:11 - Welcome to the show.
- Welcome back to the show.
- How the markets are fickle right now.
02:31 - What makes this market so low probability?
- What makes this market low probability.
- The criteria for a high-probability trade.
- The importance of knowing when to stop.
- The low-probability phenomenon.
- Breaking down the low-probability market.
- The importance of being a jack of all trades.
08:58 - The sands of time in your hourglass are ticking down.
- Anybody can get lucky in trading.
- Sitting still is a skill set.
- Pushing in this environment is stupid.
- The market can stay irrational longer.
14:41 - Why you have to understand more than you realize these markets aren’t going anywhere.
- Avoiding free resets and not pushing too hard.
- Understanding where the weekly charts will expand.
- Rules are there for a reason.
- The importance of weekly expansion or understanding.
20:18 - Who is in control right now? How can they be harmed?
- Preserve capital at all costs.
- Seasonal tendency to lower in mid-June.
23:17 - What is a High Probability 5 Handle Run?
- What constitutes a high probability five handle run.
- How many handles to offer at least.
- Low probability and trading range.
- Three criteria for high probability, no weekly draw.
29:07 - What type of mentor would it make?
- Do not touch the market.
- Get in here and start looking for setups.
- Checking every box and not to touch it.
- Patience is not a saint.
- The market is going to perform in a manner.
- The loser cycle.
35:44 - Are you confident in this market right now?
- Being obsessively compulsive about social media.
- The importance of smart money concepts.
- The summer doldrums in the market.
- What to look for in terms of signatures.
- There's something amiss, something wrong, ict.
- This is a wonderful time to be studying.
42:03 - What’s so hard to understand about the current market?
- Signs to look for in price action.
- Heavy handed traders in the trading community.
43:53 - Will these concepts ever stop?
- The most repeated question from an educator/mentor.
- The question he gets the most.
- Money is always going to be sought after.
- Central bank digital currency.
49:53 - When you have a lot of money, more people want to take it from you, and more people are going to look down on you.
- Money doesn't give happiness. It only allows you to afford things.
- Relationships are hard to know.
- Turning a blind eye to everything.
- Prepare for scenarios that allow for the highest probability of profit.
55:02 - When we’re in high probability conditions and low resistance liquidity runs, it’s easy to see what the market wants to do.
- Taking a step back to see what's going to happen.
- High-probability conditions and liquidity.
- The catalyst for the entire monetary system being restructured.
- Rules of engagement for trading.
01:00:45 - If you don’t have these rules written out, you will not measure your growth - not psychologically, not monetarily.
- The importance of having rules written out.
- The daily chart needs to leave the range.
- Being comfortable in one's own skin.
- The sands of time and the hourglass.
01:03:59 - You’re going to impulsively do things as soon as you allow impulse-emotion psychological wrestling matches.
- Impulsiveness and psychological wrestling matches.
- How to manage impulsiveness and control it.
- The beginning of Alexander elder. Book trading for a living.
- Alcoholism and the real effects.
01:08:52 - What’s the best psychological book?
- Everyone has an addiction to something.
- The first part of the best psychological book.
- Gambling is another form of addiction.
- No trading book is a 1% slam dunk.
01:14:50 - What are you going to do to occupy your time now?
- High probability trading with low resistance liquidity.
- Being responsible as a mentor.
- Taking a step back and being responsible for yourself and others.
- Mentoring is about discipline.
Transcript
| 1 | 00:00:11,490 --> 00:00:29,550 | ICT: Well, it is a great and sunny day here in Florida. I see T coming in as a Floridian this morning. So you can hear all the ambiance of the outside. So it's |
| 2 | 00:00:29,550 --> 00:00:38,910 | been a, it's been a minute or so since we talked last. And I just wanna let you know that I'm doing well, thank you for asking. Thank you for concern. |
| 3 | 00:00:39,270 --> 00:00:53,550 | Everything is well. I hope everything's well for you. So obviously, I gave you last week, what I'd like to see us move away from that daily consolidation, we |
| 4 | 00:00:53,550 --> 00:01:09,990 | have had no real luck doing that. We're staying inside of that. rather frustrating little consolidation and price range. So we have nothing, nothing by |
| 5 | 00:01:09,990 --> 00:01:20,700 | the way of high probability. So I took it upon myself after two days of trying to get a read on it and said, You know what, I'm just gonna disconnect and jump |
| 6 | 00:01:20,700 --> 00:01:33,960 | out there in the RV and take the kids down, South Carolina then got down. South Carolina figured you know what, Florida sounds pretty good right now. So I just |
| 7 | 00:01:35,070 --> 00:01:48,600 | got myself down here and beautiful, really pretty. I got beat up by Newton mosquitoes. But apart from that, it's been one wonderful. So I want to talk to |
| 8 | 00:01:48,600 --> 00:01:54,510 | you a little bit about and this will be a brief one today, because I have plans this morning with my kids. So that will usually when I say that we go for a |
| 9 | 00:01:54,510 --> 00:02:09,480 | long, long, long time, that's not going to be the case today. We are without the wife. And it's a men's retreat for me and my son, so two of them. So we'll |
| 10 | 00:02:09,480 --> 00:02:17,370 | probably go for about 25 minutes, 30 minutes or so now tying it back to what you're doing. Hopefully, you haven't been turning your account too much and |
| 11 | 00:02:18,480 --> 00:02:28,320 | causing more harm, because the markets are actually very fickle right now. Let's take a quick peek this morning, saw that we had traded down into an old new week |
| 12 | 00:02:28,320 --> 00:02:41,790 | opening gap. Nothing really stands out in terms of high probability for me. Now as I want to remind you, when we are looking at the markets in the way I'm |
| 13 | 00:02:41,790 --> 00:02:50,550 | teaching you as my student, and or if you're a casual viewer, if you're just listening, for the first time, I try to teach a concept that I dubbed smart |
| 14 | 00:02:50,550 --> 00:03:01,230 | money. And that means trading when it's smart to do so. Not all I got time to be in front of charts, you know, I have time to be here. And therefore the market |
| 15 | 00:03:01,230 --> 00:03:13,200 | should submit to My will and or my system. And sometimes as we have seen simply doesn't want to do that. Now, what makes this market right now, low probability? |
| 16 | 00:03:13,830 --> 00:03:26,820 | Well, I'll give you a couple things. I tweeted this morning rather early, asking what the criteria was list of criteria that would constitute a high probability |
| 17 | 00:03:26,820 --> 00:03:37,710 | trade setup. Number one, number one, you have to have some measure of understanding where that weekly candle is going to expand to. And I don't have |
| 18 | 00:03:37,710 --> 00:03:49,110 | that. I haven't had it for well, going over two weeks now. And I've admitted it. And I've been upfront and told you know, I don't have a real good read on what |
| 19 | 00:03:49,110 --> 00:03:58,530 | it wants to do in the context of high probability. Now can I get in there and take two handles here two handles their three handles here two handles, yes. But |
| 20 | 00:03:58,530 --> 00:04:08,760 | it's nerve racking for me. And it would be very difficult for you to follow that. And it would be really just a waste of time. I want to teach as I've been |
| 21 | 00:04:08,760 --> 00:04:20,100 | teaching, if we're going to look for a setup, it needs to have some kind of higher timeframe drawl and liquidity where why do I believe you as the analyst? |
| 22 | 00:04:20,100 --> 00:04:31,230 | Where do you believe the markets going to draw to on a higher timeframe? And if we can't ascertain that, with a one sidedness, where it's so hard to argue |
| 23 | 00:04:31,230 --> 00:04:40,470 | outside the marketplace, then we don't have high probability. So why would you want to go in why would I sit out on Twitter? Why would I go on Livestream? When |
| 24 | 00:04:40,470 --> 00:04:50,310 | I admittedly said I don't have a good read on it right now. So what did I teach and preach? If the markets not giving you something, go do something else. Now |
| 25 | 00:04:50,310 --> 00:04:59,970 | as a young man and 20s this would drive me nuts and I'd be in there trying to hammer and try to do more and do more and do more and I would hurt myself. Much |
| 26 | 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:08,940 | Like some of you probably have done, I've read one of the tweets from an elitist his name on Twitter is ICT student. He tweeted to me saying the last 40,000 |
| 27 | 00:05:08,940 --> 00:05:19,170 | hours, you know, listen, you have to stop, you have to know when to stop. I've given roles to know, when there's high probability when there's low probability. |
| 28 | 00:05:19,170 --> 00:05:30,210 | And again, I've stated this, I've been away because of that very reason. So pushing the envelope trying to do more, when it's not likely to do so whether |
| 29 | 00:05:30,210 --> 00:05:41,280 | you're in a funded account or not, just doesn't make any sense. So 40,000 hours is something that obviously hurts, it pinches, I know. But look at it this way, |
| 30 | 00:05:41,670 --> 00:05:50,070 | you bought a car you shouldn't have. Now you're stuck with the payments. There you go. That's, that's, that's the way I looked at it. That might not fit for |
| 31 | 00:05:50,070 --> 00:06:00,480 | you, it might not be equivalent. But that's how I looked at when I hurt myself and blue account and blue account blue account. That was very hard for me |
| 32 | 00:06:00,480 --> 00:06:10,440 | because I didn't come from money. So you have to do number one, the rule in this is preserve capital. And you have to have an understanding of when you're likely |
| 33 | 00:06:10,440 --> 00:06:22,710 | to hurt yourself. By forcing something that isn't there. You know, forcing something in the charts. Like Rorschach, it's the inkblot phenomenon, you know, |
| 34 | 00:06:22,710 --> 00:06:30,270 | put an inkblot in front of two people, they're gonna see not the same thing or see something totally different. And when the markets are in low probability |
| 35 | 00:06:30,270 --> 00:06:40,620 | conditions, and this is the part where you write these things down, folks. When low probability conditions exist, everybody systems going to talk. Everybody's |
| 36 | 00:06:40,620 --> 00:06:50,370 | harmonic, everybody's Elliott Wave, somebody, again, is going to have some excuse. That's why it's going to go up supply and demand ICT order blocks is |
| 37 | 00:06:50,370 --> 00:06:57,690 | going to be breakers, it's going to be this, they're all going to have something that they want to see in price, because that's the perfect excuse for them to |
| 38 | 00:06:57,690 --> 00:07:04,950 | push the button because they have no patience to wait for the market to come out of this low probability condition, which I've outlined for you. I told you, this |
| 39 | 00:07:04,950 --> 00:07:14,160 | is what I want to see it needs to come out of that range. And if I'm not mistaken, I believe I put it on Twitter. I think there's a short little video on |
| 40 | 00:07:14,160 --> 00:07:21,150 | Twitter. If it isn't, I know it's on my YouTube channel, one, one or the other. It was something I talked about audibly. I shared the chart and said this is |
| 41 | 00:07:21,480 --> 00:07:29,400 | this is what we're looking for. It needs to come out of that range until it does. We're in a very small intraday scalping scenario. So it's a scalpers |
| 42 | 00:07:29,400 --> 00:07:41,940 | market. But it's such a small little range. If we're forced to do scalp going back to that criteria, that would make a trade high probability number one, I |
| 43 | 00:07:41,940 --> 00:07:50,010 | don't have maybe you have had, but I don't have a clear indication of where that weekly candle is going to expand up to or down to, because it could do either |
| 44 | 00:07:50,010 --> 00:08:00,210 | one. And because it can do either one. I have to wait. I'm not out here trying to show you I'm a jack of all trades in every single market condition every |
| 45 | 00:08:00,210 --> 00:08:09,150 | single day. I'm teaching you how to follow model I'm teaching you also how to look for high probability. And when it indicates to me that the markets simply |
| 46 | 00:08:09,150 --> 00:08:18,180 | not trying to do what I would require of it, for the model I'm teaching you and the models that I teach my other students, I have to sit still. And there's |
| 47 | 00:08:18,180 --> 00:08:25,860 | nothing wrong with that. That's not weakness, that's an advantage. Because there are people out there that I'm quite certain one of my students admitted it on |
| 48 | 00:08:25,860 --> 00:08:34,020 | Twitter to me. And you can see it if he did write directly to me, say he lost 40,000 hours this month, and I'm not trying to make light of it or make fun of |
| 49 | 00:08:34,020 --> 00:08:43,890 | it. But that's that's the reality of this. If you don't know what you're doing, and you can't control yourself, become impulsive, and you push, try pushing a |
| 50 | 00:08:43,890 --> 00:08:52,470 | boulder up a mountain. That's the equivalent of what you're trying to do right now. Take a step back, you might be seeing people out there getting lucky. I |
| 51 | 00:08:52,470 --> 00:09:02,220 | promise you folks, if they continue to do this kind of stuff, the market will shred them. Anybody can get lucky. And I got lucky for months when I first |
| 52 | 00:09:02,220 --> 00:09:13,770 | started. And then the inevitable came. So don't look at well, I might get lucky during this because I don't have the time, the benefit of time, because the |
| 53 | 00:09:13,770 --> 00:09:20,790 | sands of time in my hourglass are ticking down because I have to do a fund that account challenge. I have to get to funded status. I have to do this. I have to |
| 54 | 00:09:20,790 --> 00:09:31,740 | do that. But those grains of sand. You're watching The hourglass empty out. When it first starts it's like man, this thing's gonna take forever. And then as it |
| 55 | 00:09:31,740 --> 00:09:39,300 | gets halfway down, you're like, Oh, well, yeah, I gotta go back and wait that same amount of time for the remaining half of sand that drained down to the |
| 56 | 00:09:39,300 --> 00:09:51,180 | bottom of our class. It seems like it goes forever. And then you get down to that last tiny little 1/5 or 1/8 of the volume of sand. And it seems like a real |
| 57 | 00:09:51,180 --> 00:10:02,940 | real fast, kind of like old age when you're young. You feel Yeah, a lot of time but you want to rush rush rush rush rush me at 50 years old, give me a turn 51 I |
| 58 | 00:10:02,940 --> 00:10:12,180 | look at it now as I don't have a lot more time on the other end. And I want to go real, real real slow. I want things to slow down. |
| 59 | 00:10:13,440 --> 00:10:23,250 | That's what you want to do in your trading. I didn't see that as a young man, I wanted Fast and Furious turbo charge always, you know, full, full steam ahead. |
| 60 | 00:10:24,510 --> 00:10:33,210 | It couldn't get there fast enough for me. Now, because I've hurt myself over the years, I've learned that lesson painfully. And one of my students has just now |
| 61 | 00:10:33,210 --> 00:10:49,230 | paid $40,000 for that lesson. You don't need to do that to learn it. sitting still is a skill set. Because capital preservation is the number one rule in |
| 62 | 00:10:49,230 --> 00:10:56,010 | speculation. Because if you can't follow that rule, it doesn't matter how good your system is, it doesn't matter how good your mentor is, it doesn't matter how |
| 63 | 00:10:56,010 --> 00:11:05,040 | many competitions you won, how many trophies you got, how many people like your posts, how many people follow you on YouTube, it does not matter. All of that |
| 64 | 00:11:05,490 --> 00:11:18,600 | will not help you. If you cannot control and keep your money. You have to have that rule set. And by me teaching and preaching and doing it. When I have |
| 65 | 00:11:18,600 --> 00:11:33,060 | nothing to act on. I have to sit still in truest form. Paid students of mine would fade my analysis and then complain how it didn't work for them. My |
| 66 | 00:11:33,060 --> 00:11:41,820 | analysis would work theirs didn't. They're saying the concepts don't work. That's a personality flaw. Pushing in this environment. pyramid thing in this |
| 67 | 00:11:41,820 --> 00:11:51,870 | environment. Stupid, stupid, stupid, stupid. Don't do that. You're not in a low resistance, liquidity run condition. You're not in a market that wants to get |
| 68 | 00:11:51,870 --> 00:12:04,920 | somewhere real quick. Think about this for a second, folks. All of these things that are going on around the world we have war, several wars on the horizon. We |
| 69 | 00:12:04,920 --> 00:12:17,490 | have multiple bank collapses and closures and more on the horizon. Central Bank, digital currencies are looming. All of you got good credit. You want to buy a |
| 70 | 00:12:17,490 --> 00:12:27,390 | house, congratulations. And you have to pay more for someone that doesn't have it. Does that make sense to you? Like we are in the upside down right now. And |
| 71 | 00:12:27,390 --> 00:12:40,620 | you're all trying to put blinders on ignoring that everything is getting tore up with chaos. So the markets are sitting still. They're not. They're not in a |
| 72 | 00:12:40,650 --> 00:12:53,580 | climate where big money is in there trying to do anything. Because if they were, you'll be moving around. It will not stay like this long. Now, two weeks may be |
| 73 | 00:12:53,610 --> 00:13:01,410 | a lifetime for some of you. I understand. I was there too. When I was a young man. I was thinking myself man, this you know, this is gonna go on for years. |
| 74 | 00:13:01,860 --> 00:13:13,860 | No, it doesn't. The market I think it was Paul Tudor Jones and reminiscences of a stock operator. Something to that effect that the markets can stay irrational |
| 75 | 00:13:13,860 --> 00:13:23,310 | longer than you can stay solvent. And if I butchered that, I apologize. But it's pretty much close to what I believe that book referred to meaning that the |
| 76 | 00:13:23,310 --> 00:13:34,740 | market can behave in a manner that does not allow you to profit or participate with an opportunity that would result in a gainful outcome. It can do things |
| 77 | 00:13:34,770 --> 00:13:43,620 | irrationally, stay in a range that simply doesn't permit you to do what you want to do on a typical basis of trading a certain model looking for this thing to |
| 78 | 00:13:43,620 --> 00:13:57,150 | happen, look for that to happen. It can do that longer, then you can endure it and stay solvent meaning keeping your account you blow your accounts faster than |
| 79 | 00:13:57,150 --> 00:14:06,450 | the market can leave that state of irrational behavior. And that's all we're in right now. Now there's going to be people out there say but look at this ICT. |
| 80 | 00:14:06,450 --> 00:14:15,240 | Look at this. I did this I did that you're supposed to be the world class leader in trading bla bla bla bla. Listen, man, I look like a superstar when I first |
| 81 | 00:14:15,240 --> 00:14:27,030 | started. I had no skill. It was all luck. Luck, luck, luck. People get lucky all the time they win the lottery. But you keep pushing this environment, trying to |
| 82 | 00:14:27,030 --> 00:14:37,320 | demand things from it that is not likely to deliver to you. It's gonna bite you. And then when it does, impulses are going to come and you're going to trade when |
| 83 | 00:14:37,320 --> 00:14:51,570 | nobody's looking, and you're gonna blow your funded accounts. And you might get those free resets. But you still know you did damage. Try to avoid that. Don't |
| 84 | 00:14:51,570 --> 00:15:01,020 | push so hard. Nothing. Nothing says you had to trade the last two weeks. Who says that? You did. But you don't understand ici understand more than you |
| 85 | 00:15:01,020 --> 00:15:15,540 | realize these markets aren't going anywhere. Prices this stagnant right now, look at the daily chart, you have wicks, and tails both end up and down in that |
| 86 | 00:15:15,540 --> 00:15:28,290 | range. I saw a tweet, but I thought, you know, 100 handles or so is enough? Well, if you're looking at a range that is likely to leave, and go somewhere, |
| 87 | 00:15:28,680 --> 00:15:35,520 | that's plenty of range. But there's nothing indicating to me, and I don't know what it's doing right now, as I'm talking to you. So I don't know what prices |
| 88 | 00:15:35,520 --> 00:15:48,390 | that is, at this moment, it could be behaving in a manner that is doing something wonderful right now, I don't know. I'm staring at water. So you don't |
| 89 | 00:15:48,420 --> 00:15:58,950 | have high probability right now. If you made money, I'm going to be honest and tell you my opinion. That was coincidence. This coincidence, because nothing in |
| 90 | 00:15:58,950 --> 00:16:09,000 | the market right now is behaving in a manner that constitutes high probability. Back to that list, the criteria that lists or you should be listing having had a |
| 91 | 00:16:09,000 --> 00:16:16,290 | list. From all the teachings and lectures I've given, you gotta know where the weekly charts going to expand. Because if you don't have that, higher timeframe |
| 92 | 00:16:16,290 --> 00:16:29,040 | sponsorship behind the move, because large flows, and delivery in price is going to be seen in an expansion on that weekly chart, it's going to be reaching for |
| 93 | 00:16:29,040 --> 00:16:44,790 | some measure of value, whether fair value or to reprice to inefficiency, one or the other. So, hang on, is a guy going by here with a golf cart? My bro You look |
| 94 | 00:16:44,790 --> 00:17:06,360 | too heavy. Oh, no, he's gonna come over and talk to me. Hold on. Okay, so Aidan broadcasting, how are you? The joys of doing things live. But the list and |
| 95 | 00:17:06,360 --> 00:17:15,150 | criteria for high probabilities we demand we must have an understanding of where that weekly charts going to expand? And if you don't have that, let him get out |
| 96 | 00:17:15,150 --> 00:17:26,400 | of your own. You don't have that you are immediately are you're in a low probability condition. Now can you can you take trades and low probability? Yes. |
| 97 | 00:17:26,820 --> 00:17:33,960 | Are you more prone to be incorrect and lose? Yes. When you when you won't look at it that way, you'll look at it as well, I have skill I outperformed my model. |
| 98 | 00:17:34,290 --> 00:17:43,200 | That was the excuse I gave myself when I was coming up. Oh, you know, I'm better than that model. And I've had models, humble me that I've created, where I tried |
| 99 | 00:17:43,200 --> 00:17:49,770 | to outperform them and not learn my lesson with that. So rules are there for a reason, you know, you don't cross the center line, when you're driving. If you |
| 100 | 00:17:49,770 --> 00:17:58,020 | do that, you're likely to do what, what my son did cause an accident. That was the first rule, I told him before I bought his car, I said, Do not cross that |
| 101 | 00:17:58,020 --> 00:18:07,860 | center line ever. Don't ever do it. If you do that 80% of accidents won't happen. Don't speed, don't drive impaired, he doesn't drink and don't cross that |
| 102 | 00:18:07,860 --> 00:18:17,370 | centerline, and you're pretty much in the hands of the Lord or the performance of the other people drive around you. And you can't control those things. So |
| 103 | 00:18:18,750 --> 00:18:28,320 | right away without weekly expansion or an understanding where it's going to reach for you are without high probability. Now, assuming that you could we |
| 104 | 00:18:28,320 --> 00:18:40,080 | don't have that IO have that. Right now at present for ES. I don't know where it wants to draw. So I have submitted myself to the rules. I said, Okay, well, I |
| 105 | 00:18:40,080 --> 00:18:51,630 | can't do anything. Because I can sit out here and tell you what I think it might do based on parts of the model. But those parts are not in alignment with what |
| 106 | 00:18:51,630 --> 00:19:02,220 | the model calls for. So I can't sit down with you with a can of green paint, and a brand new paintbrush and a brand new canvas and try to paint something in the |
| 107 | 00:19:02,340 --> 00:19:12,810 | shade of red, or blue, or yellow. I don't have the tools to do that. So the model is incomplete with the ingredients for the recipe that would call for Blue |
| 108 | 00:19:12,810 --> 00:19:23,400 | Ribbon results is I don't have all the ingredients. So it'd be foolish for me to sit out here and try to call something that I know is unlikely. I've done enough |
| 109 | 00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:33,240 | I did two days where I expected certain things. And as soon as it didn't do it, I knew right away experience taught I have to stop. Not because I'm afraid not |
| 110 | 00:19:33,240 --> 00:19:41,100 | because I don't know how to do it. Because the markets not giving me what my model is looking for, or what I would look for with my model. How's that hard to |
| 111 | 00:19:41,100 --> 00:19:52,170 | understand? And why would you view that as a weakness because it's not. I know when not to do something do you? Do the people that you listen to know when to |
| 112 | 00:19:52,170 --> 00:19:52,530 | stop? |
| 113 | 00:19:53,580 --> 00:20:01,950 | If they're new, they don't. They're discovering that. And unfortunately they may be learning that through painful less since it may not be sharing with you, they |
| 114 | 00:20:01,950 --> 00:20:09,570 | may be doing it in the quiet in the privacy of their own trading, where you don't see them, showing you their results, you don't see them live streaming, |
| 115 | 00:20:09,570 --> 00:20:17,520 | you don't see them, showing you what they did before their live stream started, or after and later on whatever results they had when he first started watching |
| 116 | 00:20:17,670 --> 00:20:31,380 | may have evaporated. We've seen many instances of that this year. So you have to have preserve capital, at all costs, isn't rule number one. That weekly |
| 117 | 00:20:31,380 --> 00:20:38,220 | expansion, you have to know where is that weekly candle? That one that's you're in right now, for this trading week, or before the week begins? You have to have |
| 118 | 00:20:38,220 --> 00:20:45,600 | an expectation, a reasonable expectation, you get this? Well, I got a gut feeling it's gonna go here, it's gonna go no, it has to make perfect sense |
| 119 | 00:20:45,600 --> 00:20:55,320 | technically, by the way I teach instruction or flow, and where it's likely to go to where has it been? What's thoughts has just recently taken who is in control |
| 120 | 00:20:55,320 --> 00:21:03,690 | right now in profit? How can they be harmed? Those are the questions you need to ask yourself when you're looking at price. Because we don't have that weekly |
| 121 | 00:21:03,690 --> 00:21:13,950 | expansion, where it can draw to a very specific level on a weekly chart on that weekly candle, then we are immediately in low probability. So now, that means |
| 122 | 00:21:13,950 --> 00:21:24,630 | we're in a scalpers market, because also, I mentioned that daily range, it needs to leave that, not just poke its head above it, it's got to leave it, then |
| 123 | 00:21:24,660 --> 00:21:35,130 | sentiment will shift. And that's all I can I don't, I don't have my heart set on the EAS going higher or going lower, I don't care. But I will submit to you that |
| 124 | 00:21:35,130 --> 00:21:46,950 | we are going into a seasonal tendency for May going into the middle of June, where not all the time, most time it drops and goes lower in the dead, mid June |
| 125 | 00:21:46,950 --> 00:22:02,460 | time period. So I'm kind of tipping my hands here, I believe it's likely to go lower if we're going to only factor in seasonal tendencies. So if I want to |
| 126 | 00:22:02,730 --> 00:22:12,270 | forecast for you, and share my opinion going forward for the next couple of months, I believe that ES will be lower. If it follows that seasonal tendency, |
| 127 | 00:22:13,080 --> 00:22:20,940 | something can happen, obviously, you know, that can upset that entire thing. And what we've seen in last three years, you know, they're saying UFOs and aliens |
| 128 | 00:22:20,940 --> 00:22:29,820 | exist. Anything happen, folks, anything can happen. It's limiting land, and you have to be careful, you have to be very, very careful. And I think that's what's |
| 129 | 00:22:29,820 --> 00:22:42,720 | being measured in what price is doing right now. Like there's so many things that are going on not just in America, but in other countries. And risk is |
| 130 | 00:22:42,780 --> 00:22:54,960 | elevated, very, very high. And big money deep pockets are not in a hurry to assume new risks right now. And that's us investing one on one, I mean, you have |
| 131 | 00:22:54,960 --> 00:23:03,000 | to have some measure of institutional sponsorship for the market to want to move not because it's the buying and selling pressure. But there has to be some |
| 132 | 00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:16,890 | measure of sentiment to allow for this dance. Okay, between liquidity providers, and large order flow. That has to be there. And right now, there's a vacuum. |
| 133 | 00:23:17,610 --> 00:23:25,980 | That's why you're seeing price behave like it does. Short little runs, which takes us through that list again, for high probability. What did I teach you |
| 134 | 00:23:25,980 --> 00:23:37,770 | when we were doing the live sessions? What what constitutes a high probability five handle run? And I think that's the low hanging fruit objective. Can you use |
| 135 | 00:23:37,770 --> 00:23:49,020 | what I taught in that model to get two handles and three handles and be done? Yes. But the chances of you as a new student or a new trader, being well |
| 136 | 00:23:50,340 --> 00:24:00,210 | disciplined to just stop when you get there, have a limit order to get that two and a half, three handles and stop. There's nothing inherently wrong with that. |
| 137 | 00:24:01,020 --> 00:24:11,190 | So I mean, you hear me talk about five handles minimum fine, that, to me, is a goal that you should strive for. You won't hit it right away. You'll grow into |
| 138 | 00:24:11,190 --> 00:24:19,230 | it, and you'll outgrow it over time. But to me, I think that's a reasonable target for someone that doesn't know how to trade that's never been consistent, |
| 139 | 00:24:19,500 --> 00:24:28,710 | that you that you start aiming for that. And if you do that, that's fine. You'll you'll you'll outgrow it eventually. But you can make a career entirely off of |
| 140 | 00:24:28,710 --> 00:24:39,870 | that. There's nothing wrong with just doing five handles. There's nothing wrong with you. If you can only get three handles the five you're aiming for all the |
| 141 | 00:24:39,870 --> 00:24:48,930 | time, if you're simply going to move a little bit further down. Where I have my RV park that they have their landscaping crew in here and they're going around |
| 142 | 00:24:48,930 --> 00:25:04,770 | with their little weed whackers and they're approaching me see if you can hear him so we'll drop a little bit deeper in So when I taught you on the live |
| 143 | 00:25:04,770 --> 00:25:16,140 | sessions, and I've also taught it in lectures in the Twitter spaces over the last few months, high probability five handle runs, need to have what it needs |
| 144 | 00:25:16,140 --> 00:25:30,120 | to have a range that offers how many pips on how many handles, this is a way to test yourself. If you're following along on twitter, how many handles does the |
| 145 | 00:25:30,120 --> 00:25:43,740 | range have to potentially deliver for you to get high probability, five handle run 10 handles. So if the price run, you're looking at anticipating, you want to |
| 146 | 00:25:43,740 --> 00:25:54,450 | offer you want to see if they can offer you 10 handle total movement, not that you're trying to get the full 10 You can over time grow into that. But I thought |
| 147 | 00:25:54,450 --> 00:26:08,850 | that it needs to have a range to offer at least 10 handles. Now with that in mind, let's think about this for a second folks. We have had what? This dude I |
| 148 | 00:26:08,850 --> 00:26:23,100 | knew he's gonna come and talk to me. I gotta roll these monitors up, start look like I'm a little bit more antisocial. So we have low probability, because the |
| 149 | 00:26:23,100 --> 00:26:33,630 | weekly chart doesn't have a clear draw where it can go higher or lower for a specific level. So right away that we're in low probability. And we are in a |
| 150 | 00:26:33,630 --> 00:26:44,940 | trading range. On a daily chart, where we have seen wicks and tails move both up and down. So we have a balanced price range. Think about like this. For those |
| 151 | 00:26:44,940 --> 00:26:57,390 | that are in relationships, okay, so you're married, are you in a long term relationship? When there's no arguing no fighting, no chaos. It's boring, right? |
| 152 | 00:26:57,870 --> 00:27:04,560 | That's exactly what you want in your relationship. You don't want chaos, you don't want fights, you don't want arguments you want anything like that. You |
| 153 | 00:27:04,560 --> 00:27:16,920 | want. Everything's balanced. And that's what you're seeing in price action. Right now. In es in NASDAQ, we are in a point of balance, there has not been |
| 154 | 00:27:16,920 --> 00:27:25,410 | anything introduced the cause and imbalance. Look at that the custom range I showed you on the daily chart for ES that shaded little area I tweeted this |
| 155 | 00:27:25,410 --> 00:27:35,370 | morning, again. Inside that range, we've seen expansion up and down, back and forth, back and forth. Now imagine that range was an empty space, and you had a |
| 156 | 00:27:35,370 --> 00:27:45,480 | crayon and you were five and six years old again. And you were instructed to color that in that box that shaded is essentially been colored in both up and |
| 157 | 00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:59,220 | down entirely. So it's balanced. Price has traveled up and down in that range both ways, multiple times, multiple days. So where's it going to go next? I am |
| 158 | 00:27:59,220 --> 00:28:06,810 | submitting to you. And I've said this last week, I don't have a clear indication where it wants to go. So immediately that checks the first box. I am not in high |
| 159 | 00:28:06,810 --> 00:28:14,790 | profit conditions. So I'm not live streaming, I'm not going to sit on Twitter and call levels that I know that likely did not pan out. I'm not going to feed |
| 160 | 00:28:14,790 --> 00:28:22,560 | the trolls to having a heyday with two days. I said, you know, I don't know what I'm doing. And this is what it is this guy here and spend time together. I don't |
| 161 | 00:28:22,560 --> 00:28:29,910 | need to spend every single day to prove the point that I've already taught that if it's low probability, it's we're at 5050. And I don't want to operate in |
| 162 | 00:28:29,910 --> 00:28:41,040 | 5050. You shouldn't want to operate in 5050. Now also, no weekly draw me to check the box. We're in low probability. We're in a trading range. So it's in a |
| 163 | 00:28:41,040 --> 00:28:50,310 | balanced price range. We don't we don't know where it's gonna go. Now, you're also in a scalpers market. So right now you have three things in that list. For |
| 164 | 00:28:50,340 --> 00:29:00,060 | the criteria for high probability. Every single one of these are checking the box that you should not touch it. It's a rattlesnake. It's shaking its tail at |
| 165 | 00:29:00,060 --> 00:29:12,240 | you. The desert guide ICT told you last week, we're in low probability. I don't know what I'm looking for. But we'll see what we see on Wednesday. And then I'll |
| 166 | 00:29:12,240 --> 00:29:25,620 | come back on Wednesday. It was happy trails man. See you later. Hammer Damn, I'm going down the road. I wasn't chit chatting with you. Every time I stopped I |
| 167 | 00:29:25,620 --> 00:29:34,230 | talked to a couple of my private students. And no I'm not gonna come see a lot of you are saying hey, you're in Florida come by. No, no, no, no, no, no, no. |
| 168 | 00:29:36,870 --> 00:29:50,370 | I'm not prepared for that. It's not that kind of trick. But now look at the price runs. How many of the price runs that you are trying to partake in? |
| 169 | 00:29:51,210 --> 00:30:06,990 | How many of them had the potential payout 10 handles? Oh. Now that list grows even larger. against you. So right away, it should make perfect sense. This |
| 170 | 00:30:06,990 --> 00:30:17,850 | tapestry that I've laid out here beforehand, is a DO NOT TOUCH market. But ICT I saw this guy on YouTube and I saw this guy on Twitter, and I'm inside this guy's |
| 171 | 00:30:17,850 --> 00:30:26,580 | discord. And he's doing this and he's doing that. That's wonderful. Well done. If you want to learn from them go right ahead. I'm not stopping you. I'm not |
| 172 | 00:30:26,580 --> 00:30:34,800 | holding anybody hostage here. But if I'm going to teach you and I'm teaching you a model with rules, what what type of mentor? And what type of sense would it |
| 173 | 00:30:34,800 --> 00:30:42,750 | make for me to do things outside the model? And the rules I'm teaching you? It makes? No, it makes no sense. What what growth would come from learning rules |
| 174 | 00:30:42,750 --> 00:30:52,590 | that I myself wouldn't even apply? If the markets telling you this, this and that, well, how's that fit with the model? Does the model say we're in high |
| 175 | 00:30:52,590 --> 00:31:02,640 | probability conditions, hammer down, get in here and start looking for setups? No, it's checking every box, not to touch it, don't touch it, and there will be |
| 176 | 00:31:02,640 --> 00:31:16,290 | setups, there will be setups that pan out that I won't be a part of. For me to sit down and educate you and have the charts live and say what I think is going |
| 177 | 00:31:16,290 --> 00:31:25,140 | to happen, I have to have everything in alignment. Otherwise, I'm going to look like anybody else out there that has no idea what they're doing. Because the |
| 178 | 00:31:25,140 --> 00:31:33,330 | market is going to perform, how the markets going to perform, I have no advantage when those things are occurring. So I have to excel, when I know |
| 179 | 00:31:33,360 --> 00:31:43,770 | everything is in my favor, it needs to be one sided. That doesn't mean a trending market, the market needs to be poised to move in a specific location |
| 180 | 00:31:44,100 --> 00:31:52,920 | from the weekly chart where I can see that clearly, okay, I have my bias, I'm going to operate just in that. I'm teaching you how to do that. And that way, |
| 181 | 00:31:53,130 --> 00:32:01,080 | you can go into the marketplace and study price action with that mindset. But some of you then if I'm going to be fair and honest, I think it's the majority |
| 182 | 00:32:01,080 --> 00:32:13,380 | of the new students, you don't have the benefit of patience. You don't, I didn't have it when I first started, don't don't think that I have this patience of a |
| 183 | 00:32:13,380 --> 00:32:27,360 | saint I don't, I'm very impatient. But in this I have to be, I have to be and you're gonna have to be as well or you'll lose your money. You'll be frustrated |
| 184 | 00:32:27,360 --> 00:32:37,800 | and or quit. And if you can't develop patience, it's probably better for you to quit, you'll save yourself a lot of pain and anxiety and anguish, trying to do |
| 185 | 00:32:37,800 --> 00:32:48,030 | something you're not equipped to do from a personality stance. There's going to be people in this audience that meet that. And you'll never be able to trade. |
| 186 | 00:32:49,050 --> 00:32:58,620 | Not because it's my stuff or anyone else's stuff. There are people out there who are not equipped to do this. They just they can't handle it. They don't like |
| 187 | 00:32:58,620 --> 00:33:05,130 | rules. They don't want to be disciplined. They don't have any responsibility. They want to blame everybody else for when they don't do something, right. They |
| 188 | 00:33:05,130 --> 00:33:13,500 | push a button, they want something to happen. Well, it's somebody else's fault. That's why it happened. Now, listen to what I've been teaching you here. The |
| 189 | 00:33:13,500 --> 00:33:27,150 | market is going to perform in a manner that's less likely for you to see what it's going to do beforehand. So I'm submitting to that. I am not armwrestling |
| 190 | 00:33:27,150 --> 00:33:39,780 | it. If it's indicating to me that it's could go either direction. It's 5050. Why are you trading? Why are you trying to get funded accounts right now? Why are |
| 191 | 00:33:39,780 --> 00:33:51,690 | you trying to build your funded account right now, when the probabilities are so low, it easily come back and stop you out frustrate you. And if you're new. |
| 192 | 00:33:53,220 --> 00:34:02,760 | That's why I'm talking to folks. If you're new, you don't have the skill set to observe when you're about to go into a tailspin because someone that seasoned |
| 193 | 00:34:02,970 --> 00:34:10,320 | someone's been around for a while they've had losses and they've they've had drawn down and come back from drawdown, drawdown is not the end of a career, |
| 194 | 00:34:10,740 --> 00:34:21,510 | you're going to have drawdown and that's always going to be a factor in your trading. Losses are going to come 100% Strike rates do not exist. But for a new |
| 195 | 00:34:21,510 --> 00:34:35,940 | student for a new trader when you experienced that, and you have already shown a lack of discipline and no control the responsibility that you should have to say |
| 196 | 00:34:35,970 --> 00:34:47,760 | I'm going to stop I'm not going to throw good money after bad you won't see it like that. Your infancy as a trader and no experience will make you feel |
| 197 | 00:34:47,790 --> 00:35:00,570 | impulsive. You'll be angry at the market you'll personify the market. You'll make it a an entity in and of itself that you have to do more with When in fact |
| 198 | 00:35:00,570 --> 00:35:10,950 | you're warring with yourself, and you're going to go and do things impulsively, trying to get something to pay you back what you lost. And that is the loser |
| 199 | 00:35:10,950 --> 00:35:18,600 | cycle that every body will experience. If they do this long enough, you will encounter that, regardless of who taught you, what you learned, what do you use |
| 200 | 00:35:18,600 --> 00:35:26,850 | to trade with whatever discipline, everybody has that. And I went through it dozens of times as a 20 year old, thinking that I was going to get a different |
| 201 | 00:35:26,850 --> 00:35:34,830 | result. And the only result was I did it faster, in a more stunning fashion, blown the account. And that's the same thing that will happen to you. If you |
| 202 | 00:35:34,830 --> 00:35:43,260 | don't learn how to be responsible, you have to be responsible. You have to have rules, you have to say, Okay, I can't go here. Now. I have to stop, I have to do |
| 203 | 00:35:43,260 --> 00:35:55,980 | something else. And that's what I did. I literally, because I'm obsessively compulsive, I think you know that about me now. And given the opportunity to be |
| 204 | 00:35:55,980 --> 00:36:07,530 | on social media, see things that's going to drive me nuts where I have to have to chase cars focus on, I'm like a dog, I literally can't help myself. So I had |
| 205 | 00:36:07,530 --> 00:36:17,670 | to completely take myself away from it. And I told myself, I would do one Twitter space while it's out here. And this is it. I won't talk again until I |
| 206 | 00:36:17,670 --> 00:36:32,040 | get home next week, so long and short. We don't have high probability. If you're watching, you know, Rockstar, Roger over there on YouTube, and he's doing |
| 207 | 00:36:32,040 --> 00:36:40,590 | something or she's doing something and it's making money. That's awesome. That is awesome. There's nothing wrong with that. I'm just telling you from what I'm |
| 208 | 00:36:40,590 --> 00:36:49,800 | teaching you in the model and the rules I'm providing. There's a context that goes along with this, that Smart Money concepts that have to have smart money, |
| 209 | 00:36:50,100 --> 00:37:00,060 | rules that you have to follow. We're not doing casino time, okay. People go to casinos and people sometimes when people buy scratch offs, people buy lottery |
| 210 | 00:37:00,060 --> 00:37:10,710 | tickets, and sometimes they win. Are you confident? Are you confident in this market climate right now, in the conditions that you're seeing in this market |
| 211 | 00:37:10,710 --> 00:37:21,570 | right now? Are you confident? In your experience in the time that you've been doing it? Are you gonna be able to control yourself? Are you going to be lucky? |
| 212 | 00:37:21,600 --> 00:37:32,130 | Are you going to leave yourself to the fate of luck? Because if you're willing to do that, you have not learned anything with the time you've been with me. |
| 213 | 00:37:34,020 --> 00:37:45,360 | Because luck is not a factor in what we're doing. I saw a student of mine sent me a message sat down, did they break the algorithm? Or did we break the |
| 214 | 00:37:45,360 --> 00:37:50,790 | algorithm, there's too many people out there and knows how to do it now. And now it's changed, they've changed everything. There's a different kind of price |
| 215 | 00:37:50,790 --> 00:37:59,340 | action. When you're when you're feeling that what you're feeling is inexperience. Because the market will sometimes go in these periods where it |
| 216 | 00:37:59,340 --> 00:38:10,920 | just ranges and consolidates. There's nothing abnormal about this, it tends to happen, okay, it happens. And I made a referral referral to how it it kind of |
| 217 | 00:38:10,920 --> 00:38:24,360 | felt like, like you would see, in typical July, in the way price action behaves in July, July is a month where it can be. It can be on or off. But generally in |
| 218 | 00:38:24,510 --> 00:38:32,490 | the latter portions of July going into August. There's this time, not in recent years, because we have all kinds of upheaval and turmoil and things going on, |
| 219 | 00:38:32,610 --> 00:38:41,820 | which cause a lot of people to be fearful of their money. And that cause shifts and sentiment in which was much more movement in the summer months, which is |
| 220 | 00:38:41,820 --> 00:38:48,780 | commonly referred to. And I didn't create this term, but it's always referred to as the summer doldrums, where the market just said, this isn't a hurry going |
| 221 | 00:38:48,780 --> 00:39:00,660 | anywhere. And that's kind of like what this feels like. To me, it feels like the behavior that a classic mid summer, price action would look like. And you have |
| 222 | 00:39:00,660 --> 00:39:11,130 | to be very careful not to push real hard when it's trading like this whenever it forms, but you have to have the eye and the observance of minutes there to just |
| 223 | 00:39:11,130 --> 00:39:18,750 | backpedal and say, Okay, I'm not, I'm not going to push real hard. Because market environments are going to shift in and out from high probability, low |
| 224 | 00:39:18,750 --> 00:39:27,510 | probability in two periods where I've openly stated that if it's not given me the indications of what I would look for in terms of price signatures |
| 225 | 00:39:27,780 --> 00:39:37,260 | algorithmically, then I have to submit myself to I don't know right now. And that's not weakness. That's not them changing the algorithm that's not then go, |
| 226 | 00:39:37,260 --> 00:39:46,230 | we got to single handedly you change everything because this guy on Twitter that teaches with a demo account, we have to do things differently. Now. Think about |
| 227 | 00:39:46,230 --> 00:39:46,740 | what you're saying. |
| 228 | 00:39:48,240 --> 00:39:55,590 | It's just because you haven't been doing it long enough. And now because you've witnessed us as a community and me guiding you through high probability |
| 229 | 00:39:55,590 --> 00:40:07,080 | conditions. Now because we have this elongated period of time where there is is low probability. It feels like things have broke. There's, there's something |
| 230 | 00:40:07,110 --> 00:40:16,950 | amiss, something's wrong ICT, you let the cat out of the bag, and now they change everything. And now we're all doomed. How's that for a B rated movie, |
| 231 | 00:40:16,950 --> 00:40:26,160 | right? That's a, that's a B rated plot. That's not happening, it's not going to happen. All you're seeing is a market that is in a range bound consolidation, |
| 232 | 00:40:26,160 --> 00:40:36,750 | because there's nothing that has caused an imbalance yet, it will happen, I promise you, it will happen. But until it does, you have to sit there and relax, |
| 233 | 00:40:37,290 --> 00:40:48,630 | do something else study, look at old data and back test. That this is a wonderful time to be studying, and not risking something. Because if you're |
| 234 | 00:40:48,630 --> 00:40:54,990 | gambling right now, and that's what you are, if you're if you're trading with real money, or a funded account, right now, you're gambling, you're gambling. |
| 235 | 00:40:56,820 --> 00:41:09,270 | Don't do that. The markets not behaving in a manner where it's so easy to go in and just walk up to the money tree and pluck it off. We're not seeing that right |
| 236 | 00:41:09,270 --> 00:41:21,570 | now. The tree is fruitless at this moment. Give it a chance to bloom and blossom. There's harvest times there's a time to plant. There's time to sow and |
| 237 | 00:41:21,570 --> 00:41:32,160 | it's time to reap. And right now, you just got to wait, wait, there's nothing wrong with that. There's no reason for you gonna be in 100 mile an hour hurry to |
| 238 | 00:41:32,160 --> 00:41:39,240 | go out there and blow your funded account or blow your account or go into severe drawdown, there's no reason for that. We're not in an environment where the |
| 239 | 00:41:39,240 --> 00:41:48,780 | markets moving fast and loose. And that is when the market is high probability. Everything will work like it's supposed to. Everything will be easy to see. But |
| 240 | 00:41:48,780 --> 00:41:58,110 | right now, even for the guy that's running the show, I'm telling you, I can't touch it. I can't touch it right now. But ICT, you said that you know the |
| 241 | 00:41:58,110 --> 00:42:06,120 | algorithm. Yes, that's why I'm sitting still, because it's not going to do anything right now. What's so hard to understand about that? There are |
| 242 | 00:42:06,120 --> 00:42:14,220 | signatures that I look for in price action. If price is not showing me those signatures, it's indicating that I should not touch it, it will chop and bang |
| 243 | 00:42:14,220 --> 00:42:26,550 | around and run up and down, up and down taking liquidity in the nearest short term basis. And in frustrate you, then we'll have the sustain runs. They won't |
| 244 | 00:42:26,550 --> 00:42:37,710 | run for specific price levels that I teach. It'll have deeper retracements sharper retracements. All the while not doing very much in terms of price runs. |
| 245 | 00:42:41,760 --> 00:42:52,470 | So it's not it's not something to be wrestling with. Just submit to it. Just Just allow it to be part of your learning curve. And it's something I explained |
| 246 | 00:42:52,470 --> 00:43:01,800 | to you last week. It's been a market where you know, until we leave this range, we're in a very, very small, intraday, scalpers market. And when that is in |
| 247 | 00:43:01,800 --> 00:43:13,320 | existence, you're forced, you're forced to either trade that way, or lose money. Think about any position traders that have tried to position themselves or swing |
| 248 | 00:43:13,320 --> 00:43:23,790 | traders in this model, or not this model or this price action. I'm sure they've been chopped up. lots of examples of hoping this runs here, hoping it runs there |
| 249 | 00:43:23,790 --> 00:43:40,020 | and then stopped out. There's some pretty heavy handed folks in our trading community that have had difficulty right now, publicly. It's hard right now. |
| 250 | 00:43:41,130 --> 00:43:50,670 | There's no shame in saying that. It doesn't mean that the market has changed. It hasn't done something different. It's not evolving into doing something else. |
| 251 | 00:43:53,370 --> 00:44:01,770 | Follow on Twitter, tweet to me say hey, look, can you come back to this conversation? And took me to the YouTube the last live stream where I lost my |
| 252 | 00:44:01,770 --> 00:44:15,180 | train of thought. And what I was going to say is, if the question that I could tell you is the most repeated question to me, as an educator, as a mentor, will |
| 253 | 00:44:15,180 --> 00:44:26,970 | this ever stop? Will these concepts ever stop? And I got distracted, and I wasn't able to come back to that, but I tweeted a response to that person, and |
| 254 | 00:44:26,970 --> 00:44:38,520 | I'm gonna say it here too, in case people missed it or they miss that. The question I get the most in terms of email, trading view, comments left in my |
| 255 | 00:44:38,520 --> 00:44:51,180 | YouTube channel. comments sent to me on Twitter. I don't do DM so if anybody's pretending to be me, I don't ever direct message anybody. But the question |
| 256 | 00:44:51,810 --> 00:45:02,820 | without a doubt that repeats more times than anything else, is Aren't you concerned ICT By teaching this many people, that they're going to change the |
| 257 | 00:45:02,820 --> 00:45:15,600 | algorithm? And the answer to that is unequivocally No, absolutely not. Because I can be honest and tell you that if I believed that, my flesh would it, even |
| 258 | 00:45:15,600 --> 00:45:28,110 | though I made all kinds of promises, the humanity in me, the person that is a sinner, I would have kept it, I would have kept it from myself. And that's it, I |
| 259 | 00:45:28,110 --> 00:45:40,530 | hope you can appreciate the honesty in that I don't absolutely believe it will ever change. Because the mechanics behind what goes on would have to be |
| 260 | 00:45:40,530 --> 00:45:53,700 | something outside of what is the only way can happen, large order flow, deep pockets. That's what's the dance between liquidity providers, and where the |
| 261 | 00:45:53,700 --> 00:46:05,700 | market wants to go. And these markets will allow deep pocket order flow to exist for a period of time. And then that, that tide or that that trend, if you want |
| 262 | 00:46:05,700 --> 00:46:20,280 | to call it that, that momentum will shift, and they'll move against it. And that upsets, present sentiment and engages new liquidity constantly. So that ebb and |
| 263 | 00:46:20,280 --> 00:46:32,580 | flow in delivery at price that these price engines deliver. It inspires new order flow by the big funds, the large funds, people with more money than you |
| 264 | 00:46:32,580 --> 00:46:43,890 | have your little contract trades in here. And collectively as a retail trader, we're doing very little in terms of the scope and magnitude of the volume that |
| 265 | 00:46:43,890 --> 00:46:57,720 | enters these markets. So these price engines are not there to inspire your trade. But by default, it does. It's meant to inspire the new position or the |
| 266 | 00:46:57,720 --> 00:47:10,260 | collapsing of existing positions in large positions, Wales, think of it like that, okay. So because that's always going to be a factor, because money is an |
| 267 | 00:47:10,260 --> 00:47:20,460 | interest everyone. There's nothing wrong with that. It's the love of money, that's the root of all evil, but using money and having money and acquiring more |
| 268 | 00:47:20,460 --> 00:47:36,420 | of it, that's not evil, that's not sin. But if we are paying attention to how these markets work, there's always going to be a seek for yield some measure of |
| 269 | 00:47:36,420 --> 00:47:47,490 | income and interest bearing instrument, there's going to be a constant seeking of profit. That's never gonna go away. Before the markets were there, there was |
| 270 | 00:47:47,490 --> 00:47:58,950 | people buying and selling things all the time. So what you're saying is, greed is going to no longer exist. Because that's exactly what you're saying. If |
| 271 | 00:47:58,950 --> 00:48:09,990 | you're saying that, by me teaching this and showing you how the markets really book, you're saying that I'm going to single handedly remove greed. That's not, |
| 272 | 00:48:10,530 --> 00:48:21,210 | that's not going to happen, folks. Money is always going to be sought after. And when there's lots of it to be made. Big deep pockets are going to be trying to |
| 273 | 00:48:21,210 --> 00:48:31,110 | go after it. But right now, that's why I'm asking this is why I get folks that are like, they're adamant against me talking about anything outside of a chart. |
| 274 | 00:48:31,500 --> 00:48:39,930 | But all these things I talk about are going to be factors. So I'm gonna say this in five minutes and close it. You have to understand that the things I've |
| 275 | 00:48:39,930 --> 00:48:48,510 | referred to, and even some tinfoil hat stuff, it may not be an interesting thing to you, because you may not be in the United States, but the things I'm talking |
| 276 | 00:48:48,510 --> 00:48:56,280 | about are not limited to the United States. We're all going to be affected by it. We're all going to be affected by we're all going to be placed on some |
| 277 | 00:48:56,280 --> 00:49:05,850 | central bank digital currency for a short period of time. And it's going to have an impact on all of our lives. If we have money. You're going to be controlled |
| 278 | 00:49:05,850 --> 00:49:19,770 | on how you spend it. Think about what they're doing. everything they're doing right now is changing the way money is used. And they're redefining money. That |
| 279 | 00:49:19,770 --> 00:49:30,930 | was the whole purpose of allowing crypto to become what it is. And it's going to be gone. You're all going to be forced on a central bank, digital currency. And |
| 280 | 00:49:30,930 --> 00:49:39,570 | universal basic income is the outcome that they're aiming for. And people that are rich multimillionaires, like me and other people that have made way for |
| 281 | 00:49:39,570 --> 00:49:47,370 | themselves either through entrepreneurship or trading or inheritance or whatever it is, they may have their money. We might not be |
| 282 | 00:49:48,390 --> 00:49:58,830 | in the coming years, because of all the changes that are coming. And that might unsettle you. I'm at peace with it. I don't care. Because money doesn't give me |
| 283 | 00:49:58,830 --> 00:50:14,040 | happiness. I've been poor, and listen, poor and not having a lot of money, you can still live. You can enjoy life. But money only allows you to afford things |
| 284 | 00:50:14,040 --> 00:50:22,710 | that most people can't. And when you have a lot of money, you have a whole lot more worries, more people want to take it from you. More people are going to |
| 285 | 00:50:22,710 --> 00:50:28,950 | look down at you because you haven't you think that the money that you're trying to you're trying to make with this, there's gonna make you a rockstar, and |
| 286 | 00:50:28,950 --> 00:50:39,360 | people are gonna look up to you and like, Man, I look at you, man, I want to be like, you know, in reality, they look at you like, you're you're not going to be |
| 287 | 00:50:39,360 --> 00:50:48,030 | looked at like you want this, put it that way. And certain weak individuals are going to come around you and try to befriend you. Because they want what you |
| 288 | 00:50:48,030 --> 00:50:56,970 | have. And when they realize that they can't get it, then they'll show their true colors. So it's hard to see real friendship, it's hard to know real |
| 289 | 00:50:56,970 --> 00:51:06,570 | relationships. When you have money. You don't know a person's real intent. And you always have to second guess it. And when you don't have a lot of money, your |
| 290 | 00:51:06,570 --> 00:51:17,040 | friends are more friend. You can trust your relationships, because they love and trust you. And a lot of you young guys out there are in a rush to get this |
| 291 | 00:51:17,340 --> 00:51:25,710 | millionaire status. And you're young, and you're gonna make the same mistakes that I did. You're gonna lay down with somebody that, you know, probably isn't |
| 292 | 00:51:25,710 --> 00:51:36,360 | the best person for you. And I didn't see it coming. And I got whacked. So all these things that are to teach you and talk about, they're going to impact you |
| 293 | 00:51:36,360 --> 00:51:46,230 | one way or the other. It's going to happen. Maybe not to every degree. But the things that I talk about are going to impact trading. Oh, it's not going to |
| 294 | 00:51:46,230 --> 00:52:04,080 | happen here ICT watch it happen. Watch. Prepare for it. If it doesn't happen, you had insurance. You were prepared for it. But going into this endeavor, and |
| 295 | 00:52:04,110 --> 00:52:11,550 | in terms of investing and trading, and turning a blind eye to everything I'm talking about now I've been talking about for years. Right now everybody wants |
| 296 | 00:52:11,550 --> 00:52:22,200 | to talk about the things that I've been talking about since 2016. before anything happened, I was talking about all these things, this is what's likely |
| 297 | 00:52:22,200 --> 00:52:36,720 | to happen. And it's called Chicken Little mocked on social media. Look at the world we're living in right now. Does it feel normal to you? Not to me. And it's |
| 298 | 00:52:36,720 --> 00:52:48,060 | going to be changing. You want to talk about the things that are changing money, how we use money, commerce, all that is changing. Trading will be impacted by |
| 299 | 00:52:48,060 --> 00:52:58,860 | that. They're not taking trading away yet. But I think that it could be used. Because think about how many people have gone the way of leaving the nine to |
| 300 | 00:52:58,860 --> 00:53:09,750 | five mentality. Now there's a lot of people that fail trying to trade. I'm doing a very bad job of condensing this in the last five minutes, right? I'll wait for |
| 301 | 00:53:09,750 --> 00:53:26,670 | my son to pick his head out. The idea is this. By preparing for scenarios that allow for the highest probability for you to profit, and understanding where the |
| 302 | 00:53:26,670 --> 00:53:36,780 | snares are, where's the pitfalls? Where's the things that you're going to likely do harm to yourself and avoid that. Don't even walk in that area don't even |
| 303 | 00:53:36,780 --> 00:53:47,370 | venture into that jungle. And right now, the way the markets are behaving, it's literally like taking a boat a bloodbath. And walking into the jungle, waiting |
| 304 | 00:53:47,370 --> 00:53:58,410 | to be devoured by the first thing that gets its claws into you. And then wondering as you're being eaten alive. Why did this happen? Who's Who's |
| 305 | 00:53:58,410 --> 00:54:11,640 | responsible for this? Who can I blame for this? Someone owes me restitution. Now, you made a very poor choice. You were ill equipped. And you went into a |
| 306 | 00:54:11,640 --> 00:54:22,710 | dangerous condition and situation assuming that you would survive it and have no harm done to yourself. That's the equivalent mentally that's what you're doing |
| 307 | 00:54:22,710 --> 00:54:34,440 | right now by trying to trade in this environment. How hard is that to understand? Now for those of you that are quiet, didn't say anything to me and |
| 308 | 00:54:34,440 --> 00:54:44,190 | you hurt yourself, lost money, went into drawdown lost your funded account, failed your funded account challenge. You know, every box that I talked toggled |
| 309 | 00:54:44,190 --> 00:54:54,930 | as we went through this discussion, you knew that was the truth. And yet you still pushed the button. Who's responsible for that? I wasn't even around here. |
| 310 | 00:54:55,350 --> 00:55:07,380 | I've been away. And some of you if you're being honest, if someone asked you You'd be blaming me. It ICT. I watched that video he said to do this. What? What |
| 311 | 00:55:07,380 --> 00:55:19,500 | did I say right now? What did I say right now I'm taking a step back, I'm gonna touch on it, I need to see what's gonna happen. Nothing. Now yesterday I got |
| 312 | 00:55:19,500 --> 00:55:31,140 | lucky. So little bit less than 10 handles of a move. But that was on the heels of me trying to do something long. And I got pinched for a quarter of a point |
| 313 | 00:55:31,440 --> 00:55:47,160 | and reversed and got just short of 10 handles after that no idea what it will do. No idea. So I don't look at that as skill. I didn't call that. Look how |
| 314 | 00:55:47,160 --> 00:55:55,530 | awesome I am. High five, boom, like do you see me do when we're in high probability conditions? I do that. Not to show off it sounds, it seems like |
| 315 | 00:55:55,530 --> 00:56:06,210 | showing off. But I'm doing it to the viewership that are trying to learn. I'm anchoring that moment. I'm creating that little time of that kind of excitement |
| 316 | 00:56:06,210 --> 00:56:17,430 | that that happy dopamine drop? Because it becomes much more meaningful to you, instead of just watching? Oh, well, you know, there's price action that you |
| 317 | 00:56:17,430 --> 00:56:27,570 | didn't take a trade on. You can't profit from it, you can't spend the money on it. So it makes you feel closer to the event that we were watching collectively |
| 318 | 00:56:27,570 --> 00:56:41,100 | as a community? Well, you know, the short yesterday that was in front of, you know, my older students. There was no cheerleading and there was this, okay, |
| 319 | 00:56:41,100 --> 00:56:49,260 | there it is. And I turned them loose to it. I said, Okay, have fun with with with this stuff I'm not interested in. But when we're in high probability |
| 320 | 00:56:49,260 --> 00:56:58,920 | conditions and low resistance liquidity runs, that means that the markets really easy, like butter, the slides right on into where you want it to go. It's easy |
| 321 | 00:56:58,920 --> 00:57:08,940 | to see it happening, it's easy to see what it wants to do. It's easy to see the entry points, everything is easier there. Then you'll hear the adjectives come |
| 322 | 00:57:08,940 --> 00:57:19,830 | out the boom. Who do you love the Joker? Jeff new throwing the money around. So that's this to make you feel good about that observation that we watched happen. |
| 323 | 00:57:21,240 --> 00:57:30,780 | But right now, if I was right, if I was to sit out here and call it right, I will tell you again, this is not something to be viewed as skill because it's |
| 324 | 00:57:30,780 --> 00:57:40,410 | just coincidence that happened deliver because it's outside the models rules. How hard is that to understand. In this environment, we're seeing people that |
| 325 | 00:57:40,410 --> 00:57:51,090 | don't really know what they're doing, getting lucky. And then claiming it's skill. And some of you fall victim to believing that stuff. I did too, as a 20 |
| 326 | 00:57:51,090 --> 00:58:02,040 | year old, I thought everybody did was showing me results was being honest, they were they were able to do that. And I'm absolutely 100% being transparent with |
| 327 | 00:58:02,040 --> 00:58:09,660 | you. If I see it coming, I'll tell you, if I don't see it, I'm going to tell you, I can't see it right now. And that's not an algorithm being changed. It's |
| 328 | 00:58:09,660 --> 00:58:20,220 | not me being the catalyst for the entire monetary system being restructured and done all over again. It just means that we're in a consolidation folks, that's |
| 329 | 00:58:20,220 --> 00:58:31,590 | all it means. That's all it means. And they will not last forever. But you have to submit to it, you have to wait for whatever catalyst is going to be used to |
| 330 | 00:58:31,590 --> 00:58:43,500 | move us outside that range and get us moving around again. Just gotta wait for it. You cannot impose your will the sands of time right now. They're going to |
| 331 | 00:58:43,500 --> 00:58:53,100 | drop the same speed. They're always dropping the same speed. But your perspective of it, when it's a lot of sand and the upper portion of the |
| 332 | 00:58:53,100 --> 00:59:02,970 | hourglass, things feel like they're moving real, real slow. But that same grain of sand is still dropping at the same capacity and speed. It's always doing the |
| 333 | 00:59:02,970 --> 00:59:11,550 | same thing. But your perception is when you lose more of that sand, you feel rushed. And you're doing that with your challenges for your funded account, |
| 334 | 00:59:11,610 --> 00:59:20,910 | trying to rush to the state of New being able to make money. I gotta get funded not to start taking money out. I gotta trade one more day, I gotta do five days |
| 335 | 00:59:20,910 --> 00:59:30,630 | of trading, I gotta do this. All these things are time. They're there for you to blow it. That's why those rules are there. They're not there for you to succeed. |
| 336 | 00:59:31,740 --> 00:59:43,710 | So you have to turn everything upside down and look at it for what it is. They are speed bumps, their barriers, they're in place. So that way that fund that |
| 337 | 00:59:43,710 --> 00:59:46,080 | account doesn't have to be paying you anything. |
| 338 | 00:59:47,790 --> 00:59:55,620 | And for the folks who are trading with real money, same thing happens with you. You're thinking it's been a while since I've had a winning trade. I need |
| 339 | 00:59:55,620 --> 01:00:03,120 | something I need to be encouraged. Well, you should be encouraged by the fact that you're not rushing in doing anything right now and gambling. That's the |
| 340 | 01:00:03,120 --> 01:00:12,780 | mindset you should have. That is the SEMA. So now, head back to the RV, just down the street from me sorry to pull up. That's the mindset you need to have. |
| 341 | 01:00:15,120 --> 01:00:25,350 | you reward yourself for not doing impulsive things. And that's the reward in and of itself. But it doesn't have any profit behind ICT, you didn't have a losing |
| 342 | 01:00:25,350 --> 01:00:33,990 | trade either. Toto only received the safety belt, like treatment, our stop loss ICT, you need to wear your seatbelt. |
| 343 | 01:00:40,140 --> 01:00:50,640 | So there's rules to this game, there's rules of engagement that you're gonna have to submit to. And if you don't, you will pay the price. And if you don't |
| 344 | 01:00:50,640 --> 01:01:05,280 | have these rules written out and follow them, you will not measure your growth, not psychologically, not monetarily. You'll have no measure of knowing what it |
| 345 | 01:01:05,280 --> 01:01:17,940 | is you should be expecting in terms of progress. How much have you grown in the last few weeks, some of you want to quit. So you're regretting ever starting. |
| 346 | 01:01:19,320 --> 01:01:27,420 | Because you think it's impossible. I'm just trying to tell you to take a step back, go back to that daily chart. And what I mentioned last week, it needs to |
| 347 | 01:01:27,420 --> 01:01:36,960 | leave that I promise you when it is out of that range, and we're now moving freely again, all this stuff will be easier to see in price action again, you'll |
| 348 | 01:01:36,960 --> 01:01:46,920 | think to yourself, Man, I was sweating it back then. And it's only been two weeks. You're trying to take your entire career, your entire career as a trader, |
| 349 | 01:01:47,100 --> 01:01:58,170 | you're trying to encapsulate that in terms of two weeks, the success or failure of your entire lifetime, as a trader going forward hinges on the outcome of |
| 350 | 01:01:58,170 --> 01:02:11,880 | these two, five day periods. Certainly, when you think about like that, in it, it's all perspective. And I did that to myself many, many times as a young man. |
| 351 | 01:02:12,960 --> 01:02:24,930 | And it skewed My perspective is skewed my understanding of where I was in my growth. And you don't want to do that because it stunts your growth. You'll |
| 352 | 01:02:24,930 --> 01:02:35,190 | trick yourself into thinking there's an emergency when there isn't. You'll trick yourself into thinking there's an opportunity when there isn't. And you have to |
| 353 | 01:02:35,190 --> 01:02:45,360 | be very comfortable in your own skin. Knowing that it's okay for you not to do anything. If other people are doing something and they're making money, be happy |
| 354 | 01:02:45,360 --> 01:02:54,810 | for them. Be glad that they didn't get hurt right now. Because it's too easy to do it to the to yourself or themselves. And if they want to pretend it's |
| 355 | 01:02:54,810 --> 01:03:07,920 | skilled, let them what are you going to do, you're not going to change their mind about it. In arguing with them as it's toxic. Let them be themselves. I'm |
| 356 | 01:03:07,920 --> 01:03:17,040 | just telling you from personal experience, having mentored hundreds of 1000s of people. And having been in this industry for three decades, experiencing it |
| 357 | 01:03:17,040 --> 01:03:31,920 | myself pushing in this environment, eventually will do its work, you will have your wings clipped. And the reminder in this Twitter space is you have to submit |
| 358 | 01:03:31,920 --> 01:03:43,350 | to this Sands of Time. And where you are in that it's always happening at the same speed at the same rate of descent from the upper portion of the hourglass |
| 359 | 01:03:43,350 --> 01:03:54,270 | to the lower. It's never really speeding up. But how much time you have left in the upper portion is going to have an impact. And don't look at your trading |
| 360 | 01:03:54,270 --> 01:04:02,850 | like you have to rush to get somewhere you're not you're not in the right state of mind when you do that. You're going to impulsively do things. As soon as you |
| 361 | 01:04:02,850 --> 01:04:13,620 | allow impulse, emotion, psychological wrestling matches because you're trying to keep up with someone else's performance, trying to live up to someone's |
| 362 | 01:04:13,620 --> 01:04:22,530 | expectation, like signal providers. I facetiously said to my older students. Last week, I said, I'm glad I'm not running a signal service in this |
| 363 | 01:04:22,530 --> 01:04:31,620 | environment. Can you imagine? Can you imagine if I had a schedule that I had to maintain to be in front of everybody on a live session, I had to be out there |
| 364 | 01:04:31,620 --> 01:04:42,150 | and doing it. The stress that it would place on me would totally have a major impact on me psychologically. And also, if I did something incorrectly, because |
| 365 | 01:04:42,150 --> 01:04:48,810 | I'm obsessively compulsive. It would eat at me even when I was away from the charts and away from the people that would be listening to me. So what did I do? |
| 366 | 01:04:48,960 --> 01:05:02,160 | I completely remove myself from the enticement to do so. Because I am like a dog that chases cars. So I had to do what manage myself I have a mental illness that |
| 367 | 01:05:02,160 --> 01:05:14,610 | if I don't do these types of things, I will be impulsive. So, I've learned to view it as an advantage and knowing that I can control this part of me doing |
| 368 | 01:05:14,610 --> 01:05:23,910 | these types of things, some of you may not need to have it this extreme where you physically remove yourself from it. And others may think, Well, you know, |
| 369 | 01:05:23,910 --> 01:05:31,830 | I'm gonna go that route. And that's the only way I'm gonna be able to protect myself from doing harm to myself. There's nothing wrong with that. That's |
| 370 | 01:05:31,920 --> 01:05:40,020 | discipline. Believe me, it takes a lot of discipline to do it. You might think, Well, it sounds like it's really easy. And it's sounds like fun, you're driving |
| 371 | 01:05:40,020 --> 01:05:48,390 | around in an RV and go all over the country, and you're vacationing and spending too much for food, you don't taste all that good. Listen, you do what you got to |
| 372 | 01:05:48,390 --> 01:05:59,820 | do. If it means taking your your computers, and telling your spouse that, hey, look, here's a power cord. You know, hold on to this until next Friday, or next |
| 373 | 01:06:00,450 --> 01:06:08,250 | Friday after that, or whatever. And commit to them say, You know what, I'm going to invest more time into you, instead of doing this, because I have to |
| 374 | 01:06:08,280 --> 01:06:16,350 | physically remove myself from the impulsiveness that's likely to occur. If I look at the price action right now, because everything in my system that I |
| 375 | 01:06:16,350 --> 01:06:25,620 | haven't grown in trusting yet, everything in my model tells me I shouldn't do it. But I don't have the experience to listen to it yet. I might do something to |
| 376 | 01:06:25,620 --> 01:06:37,710 | myself, by pushing a button that I shouldn't be pushing. I'm going to engage a marketplace that I know, by all rules and face value. I should not touch it. But |
| 377 | 01:06:37,710 --> 01:06:45,420 | I might see something that will lure me into Oh, it's going to really run now. And if I don't take this I'm going to be regretful How about if you weren't |
| 378 | 01:06:45,420 --> 01:06:56,490 | there? Looking at it when you know, it's not likely to be there anyway. You can't feel that impulsiveness. You, I've never drank alcohol. Okay. But I liken |
| 379 | 01:06:56,490 --> 01:07:06,630 | it to and this is why I liked the beginning of I promises last remark because I don't want my son to dig to his head after the RV again, looking at me and get |
| 380 | 01:07:06,630 --> 01:07:22,350 | frustrated. But the beginning of Alexander elders book, trading for a living, in my opinion, that is so much better than Mark Douglas is trading on his own. And |
| 381 | 01:07:22,350 --> 01:07:33,180 | that's not a knock against Mr. Douglas. That book is okay. But in my mind, in my opinion about psychology and the real effects of doing things, why we do things |
| 382 | 01:07:33,210 --> 01:07:47,430 | impulsively. Alexander elder, nailed it. Because I grew up in an environment where majority of my family members were alcoholics. They were many times |
| 383 | 01:07:47,430 --> 01:07:59,550 | functioning alcoholics, that means they could keep a job. And they were able to work being an alcoholic. But as soon as the time for going off duty happened, |
| 384 | 01:08:00,540 --> 01:08:08,940 | they're on their way to the bar, getting liquor, or stopping at the liquor store and bringing it home and drinking all night long. Weekdays, and on the weekend, |
| 385 | 01:08:09,030 --> 01:08:20,220 | forget about it. They were wet. And he would be frightened, carrying on acting the fool. That was the environment I grew up in. So I told myself, I was never |
| 386 | 01:08:20,220 --> 01:08:32,310 | going to do that. But that book, and where he talks about alcoholism, and the effects of you know, dealing with that struggle of overcoming it that that |
| 387 | 01:08:32,310 --> 01:08:43,680 | addiction that resonated with me, because that's where the rubber meets the road. That's a grassroots real issue that many times, many times, I wish |
| 388 | 01:08:43,680 --> 01:08:53,850 | educators that I liked reading about, we would go into that, and nobody ever did it. But Alexander elder. So whenever I'm asked, like, what's the best |
| 389 | 01:08:53,850 --> 01:09:02,010 | psychological book out there? It's the first part, you know, the triple screen stuff, you know, that's okay, you know, but that's useless to you, if you can't |
| 390 | 01:09:02,010 --> 01:09:12,780 | control yourself, and impulsiveness. And everybody has an addiction. Everybody, everyone has an addiction. Every single one of us as a human being, we're |
| 391 | 01:09:12,780 --> 01:09:21,510 | addicted to something. For some of you, it might be the fact that what I'm producing my content, and you may be addicted to that because you're pursuing |
| 392 | 01:09:21,510 --> 01:09:31,110 | something and you'd like what you're learning here and you'd like the community and whatever. Given enough time and not behaving in a manner that you're being |
| 393 | 01:09:31,110 --> 01:09:38,760 | taught to do, and breaking the rules. You'll learn to hate this community, you'll hate me because you're going to look for something outward, outside of |
| 394 | 01:09:38,760 --> 01:09:48,060 | yourself to blame instead of assuming the responsibility that's required. Because the rules I'm giving you they're there for you to learn properly and not |
| 395 | 01:09:48,060 --> 01:09:58,770 | need me. But so many of you want to do like the alcoholism does to an alcoholic. You know, I can't drink while I'm on duty but man I'm counting I'm counting down |
| 396 | 01:09:58,770 --> 01:10:09,330 | the time looking at the clock. gets almost someone's quitting time. It's happy hour. And you can't wait to get another drink? Is your trading like that? Are |
| 397 | 01:10:09,330 --> 01:10:19,170 | you thirsty constantly for a new setup? Because you're addicted if you are. And chances are, if you feel that way, you're not going to stick to the rules that |
| 398 | 01:10:19,170 --> 01:10:28,110 | I'm giving you or anybody else will, and you will not succeed, you'll fall victim to this environment right here. This climate right here, this is that |
| 399 | 01:10:28,110 --> 01:10:34,080 | moment where an alcoholic feels like they want to escape. |
| 400 | 01:10:36,120 --> 01:10:41,910 | They want to escape their marriage, they feel like they're in a rut. They want to leave the person they're with, they don't like their job. They don't like |
| 401 | 01:10:41,910 --> 01:10:49,890 | where they're at in life. They, they maybe lost their relationship, and he can't get it back. All those things start wearing wearing them down emotionally, |
| 402 | 01:10:49,890 --> 01:10:58,890 | psychologically, and what are they do? They want to drink it away? They want to self medicate? Well, in trading, how do we do that? We push the button bottoms |
| 403 | 01:10:58,890 --> 01:11:13,920 | up, glasses up, baby. Push the button. Here's a toast to you ICT. Listen, I don't want you to send me your trade when right now. I don't want you to do |
| 404 | 01:11:13,920 --> 01:11:21,720 | that. Because I don't believe it's an environment that is conducive for high probability. And to give you a high five, right now, it would be equivalent to |
| 405 | 01:11:21,720 --> 01:11:35,790 | saying, Hey, let me fill your gas tank up before you you go home driving drunk. If you're impulsively looking to do something right now, and you just can't wait |
| 406 | 01:11:35,790 --> 01:11:48,990 | to do it, you're addicted. And you're trying to do something that's outside of what I taught. And if you have something bad happen, you eat it. You own it. |
| 407 | 01:11:50,100 --> 01:12:02,520 | It's yours. You drove drunk. You're looking at this. You can't, you can't whether the time that's required to wait. Your impatience is wearing on you. And |
| 408 | 01:12:02,520 --> 01:12:08,130 | you can't stand the way the markets moving. And you just simply want to get out of it. And the only way you think you can get out of it is by simply pushing the |
| 409 | 01:12:08,130 --> 01:12:21,480 | button and then see what happens. And that's gambling. That's another form of addiction. So if you've ever read the book, trading for a living by Alexander |
| 410 | 01:12:21,480 --> 01:12:32,100 | elder, my advice is to read the read the whole book. But the things about the indicators and stuff, throw that out. It's all it's all BS, you don't need any |
| 411 | 01:12:32,100 --> 01:12:43,830 | of that. The view of three timeframes. That's wonderful. And that was my initial introduction to multiple time frame analysis. But I don't just do three |
| 412 | 01:12:43,830 --> 01:12:54,720 | timeframes. I'm looking at other things. But the real gem in that book is all the boring stuff in the beginning. And if you read it and try to place yourself |
| 413 | 01:12:54,750 --> 01:13:09,210 | inside of that, how do you fit in all that? You as a person, you as a trader? And what can you do to avoid those things that would do you harm by not using |
| 414 | 01:13:09,210 --> 01:13:17,640 | the logic that's being introduced? In that discussion in that portion of the book? I've maintained that ever since I've asked by other people, what trading |
| 415 | 01:13:17,640 --> 01:13:29,910 | books do you like, none of them. No trading book out there was a complete 1% Slam Dunk. It's wonderful. I like street smarts because it provided short little |
| 416 | 01:13:29,910 --> 01:13:39,900 | patterns right to the point, things that go on and study price action with. But I don't trade with any of it. I made money with the anti pattern that's in that |
| 417 | 01:13:39,930 --> 01:13:52,170 | book. I made money with my my version of turtle soup. But I didn't like the whole rules of 20 day high and 20 day low. Because I could see that, you know |
| 418 | 01:13:52,170 --> 01:14:04,530 | forming on a five minute chart. So I'm not using 20 days. They're using turtle soup plus one which is new 21 days high and low. I'm not trying to teach her |
| 419 | 01:14:04,530 --> 01:14:18,810 | patterns, but the street smarts books, pattern, or patterns rather. Were were helpful for me to create a model that's right to the point. And that sounds like |
| 420 | 01:14:18,810 --> 01:14:26,880 | an oxymoron to me like you're never to the point ICT. You never you never just spell it out. Well I did and 2022 I gave you a very specific model. It's easy to |
| 421 | 01:14:26,880 --> 01:14:40,290 | follow if you wait for those conditions. But the problem is, you don't have the discipline to wait and doing things in an environment like this. It's |
| 422 | 01:14:40,290 --> 01:14:51,120 | uncomfortable, isn't it? Waiting like this is uncomfortable? Waiting like this and not having me tweet to you. For some of you is unbearable. And what are you |
| 423 | 01:14:51,120 --> 01:15:01,950 | going to do to occupy your time? The same thing and alcohol does? grabbed a bottle tosses one back What have you done? Since you've been doing that? Have |
| 424 | 01:15:01,950 --> 01:15:13,380 | you have you grown? That you profit? Did you feel good about what you did? Even if you did win? And can you really honestly say that that was skill? To me |
| 425 | 01:15:13,380 --> 01:15:26,190 | problems, manifest themselves in this environment for someone that is irresponsible, not disciplined, not rule based. It invites chaos, it invites it, |
| 426 | 01:15:27,180 --> 01:15:39,390 | it greets it with a kiss, you don't want that in your trading. You do not want that. You want boring, easy salad day trading, where it just simply wants to get |
| 427 | 01:15:39,390 --> 01:15:47,850 | right where you think it's gonna go. And it's going to do so with multiple entry points. Which is the reason why I said high probability trading with low |
| 428 | 01:15:47,850 --> 01:15:58,560 | resistance, liquidity run, that is easy to trade. And entry points are not even all that important, because there's multiple ways to get in. You don't have to |
| 429 | 01:15:58,560 --> 01:16:15,900 | have the best entry. But right now, right now, you have to be perfect. Are you perfect? I'm not perfect. I know my limitations. And I know, as a mentor, |
| 430 | 01:16:15,900 --> 01:16:26,730 | teaching the roles I've given you, I am not going to be able to fire on all cylinders every single day, perfectly, you know, leaving the day with my head up |
| 431 | 01:16:26,730 --> 01:16:33,690 | thinking I've done them? Well, I did them right today, guiding them where I wanted to take your attention to and price action, and the outcome was |
| 432 | 01:16:33,690 --> 01:16:43,590 | favorable. I don't have that right now. So I'm trying to be responsible as your educator, your mentor, the captain at the helm, if you will. I'm trying to steer |
| 433 | 01:16:43,590 --> 01:16:54,720 | us around troubled waters. And some of you are arguing that you want to get wet. I want to feel the lightning on my backside, just to see what it feels like, |
| 434 | 01:16:55,200 --> 01:17:09,090 | drive us through it ICT. I don't want to do that. I want you to respect the fact that you didn't have to go through the troubles that many people feel like they |
| 435 | 01:17:09,090 --> 01:17:16,800 | want to have to understand not to do it. Like you don't need to have your arm ripped off. You don't need to blow your account, you don't need to lose your |
| 436 | 01:17:16,800 --> 01:17:24,000 | funded account, you don't need to fail your funded account challenges. To appreciate that this is a hard market right now. You should be thanking |
| 437 | 01:17:24,000 --> 01:17:31,110 | yourself, hey, look, I had to discipline to do nothing. And now for some of you that were questioning whether you should have been doing that should feel better |
| 438 | 01:17:31,110 --> 01:17:48,390 | about it now. I physically had to remove myself from this. Because I would trade it. I would try to exert my ego on it. Why? Because I have people watching me. |
| 439 | 01:17:50,310 --> 01:18:01,950 | So I did the math on it. I said well, no. I know my characteristics. I know my tendencies. I'm impulsive. I'm obsessively compulsive, and Bipolar I have |
| 440 | 01:18:01,950 --> 01:18:13,890 | everything that would be perfect, perfect things to steer me right into the eye of the storm in this environment right now. So being what I've wrote down in my |
| 441 | 01:18:13,890 --> 01:18:24,660 | journals for years, prayed about discipline prayed about strength, the walk away from it. This is like my drink for an alcoholic. Like I want to be in this |
| 442 | 01:18:24,660 --> 01:18:38,100 | environment every day with you and sharing a drink with you at the pub. I want that I enjoy it. I enjoy our time together. I enjoy sharing. But I can't do that |
| 443 | 01:18:38,100 --> 01:18:47,370 | right now. I have to take a step back. And I want you to appreciate the fact that I'm being responsible not only with myself, but for you as my viewers. Like |
| 444 | 01:18:47,370 --> 01:18:59,460 | I don't want you to fall victim to anything that's harmful. I'm not interested in the glitz and fame. If I was I'd still be doing it past November this year, I |
| 445 | 01:18:59,460 --> 01:19:09,420 | won't be doing it. I want to instill in you the right mindset. I want to walk the talk. And I want to show you everything that you're supposed to be doing. |
| 446 | 01:19:09,810 --> 01:19:18,690 | Even if it's avoiding certain market environments. That's what mentoring is. And that's why I've asked you all you know whether you had the same faith as me or |
| 447 | 01:19:18,690 --> 01:19:30,990 | not needed to pray for me, because I don't want to be a catalyst that cause any of you to fall short of your your goals or your success. And also, I don't want |
| 448 | 01:19:30,990 --> 01:19:43,110 | you to foolishly try to attribute your failure to me. Because whatever you're doing, that result is yours. Whether it's good or bad, you own that. That's your |
| 449 | 01:19:43,110 --> 01:19:57,000 | response. Your it's your responsibility. So I'm doing everything I can within the realm of reality I can't I can't do anything more than I'm doing now. I'm |
| 450 | 01:19:57,000 --> 01:20:07,770 | physically removing any enticement, no tweets Nothing, I can't be accused of, oh, you talked about this. And I took this as that. No. That's why I physically |
| 451 | 01:20:07,770 --> 01:20:20,490 | had to take myself away from it. And that's where we're at. So I'm looking at a lovely day here in Florida. I'm gonna start working my way up north, over the |
| 452 | 01:20:20,490 --> 01:20:31,800 | next couple of days. And then I think I'll stay in Georgia, probably on Saturday. And then probably, you know, after that, I'll start heading back up to |
| 453 | 01:20:31,830 --> 01:20:36,780 | Maryland. But I just want to stop in spend a couple minutes with you all, |
| 454 | 01:20:37,169 --> 01:20:47,039 | I ended up giving you more than I said, I would always over deliver. But hopefully, you've been doing well. And I miss you as much as you probably miss |
| 455 | 01:20:47,039 --> 01:20:55,979 | me and can't wait to get back in to our discussions over price action again, hopefully, the rest of this week going into next week, we'll sort out this |
| 456 | 01:20:55,979 --> 01:21:02,909 | stagnant price action that we're seeing right now. If not, that's okay. I'll just go into this teachings and we won't do any live until it starts loosening |
| 457 | 01:21:02,909 --> 01:21:11,699 | up. But either way, we'll be back in the charts next Monday. So until I talk to you next time. Be safe. |