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Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-01-18 10:41
Show last authors
1 == Outline ==
2
3 ##00:23 -## Introduction of the episode.
4
5 ##03:20 -## Fluid entry management and exit.
6
7 ##10:06 -## The importance of screenshotting the chart.
8
9 ##16:16 -## How many contracts should you be trading?
10
11 ##22:04 -## How to take advantage of what I’m doing.
12
13 ##27:48 -## How to build a position by adding more links.
14
15 ##33:52 -## Difficulties in the markets.
16
17 ##39:07 -## How he manages his trading strategy.
18
19 ##45:45 -## The role of the analyst and trader.
20
21 ##47:43 -## Looking at the current state of liquidity.
22
23 ##54:45 -## Gun to my head in this situation.
24
25 ##01:00:36 -## How to use the chart.
26
27 ##01:06:29 -## How to avoid emotional regret?
28
29 ##01:12:20 -## It’s completely devoid of any emotion.
30
31 ##01:17:03 -## The gambler is just wanting to test drive the car.
32
33 ##01:22:05 -## You have to learn this skill set to succeed.
34
35 == Transcription ==
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37 (% class="hover min" %)
38 |1 |00:00:23,550 ~-~-> 00:00:34,410 |ICT: Good evening. Good evening, folks. How is everyone? Hope you're all doing well. So I'm just want to spend a couple minutes with you. And we won't be long
39 |2 |00:00:34,410 ~-~-> 00:00:46,020 |tonight, I promise. I usually say that and we go for hours, I don't have it in tank like, it just wanted to talk to you a little bit, because I got a lot of
40 |3 |00:00:46,020 ~-~-> 00:00:59,070 |questions as to why I was not pointing anything specific out in the pm session. Well, obviously, you can see by my recording, I was engaged. And it was very
41 |4 |00:01:00,240 ~-~-> 00:01:12,360 |focused, demanding. So very, very hard for me to do more than one thing at a time and being able to type out a tweet and prepare a chart and add all that
42 |5 |00:01:12,360 ~-~-> 00:01:25,020 |stuff. While it's all moving around, like I had to be dialed in. And it was a very complex model. Obviously, you can see that now. But none of you are at that
43 |6 |00:01:25,020 ~-~-> 00:01:33,960 |level where you should be expecting to trade like that. And really, here's the main thing. You don't want to be trading in an environment like that. Like it's
44 |7 |00:01:33,960 ~-~-> 00:01:46,560 |very stressful, it's time demanding. It's exhausting. And there's other ways to trade on better days. And I'll talk a little bit about that tonight. That was
45 |8 |00:01:46,590 ~-~-> 00:01:57,900 |really the main reason why I wanted to sit down because I'm going to be away from you all tomorrow morning. The the afternoon today was one of those days
46 |9 |00:01:57,900 ~-~-> 00:02:10,200 |where unless you have a lot of experience, and you know exactly what you're doing. It's next to impossible. Even if I was to sit there and tell you every
47 |10 |00:02:10,200 ~-~-> 00:02:19,410 |individual level. The fact that was going back and forth chopping back and forth, deep retracements and such, it would have confused you more people would
48 |11 |00:02:19,410 ~-~-> 00:02:32,430 |have been upset and frustrated, trying to track it and follow it than me just simply just executing, managing and annotating as I go. The morning session, I
49 |12 |00:02:32,430 ~-~-> 00:02:41,130 |think was pretty nice. I mean, we had to pretty straightforward run to that 4030 level we were looking for last week, and then I opened up our commentary on the
50 |13 |00:02:41,130 ~-~-> 00:02:54,120 |weekend, saying that was my next upside objective. And in the morning session was kind of sloppy premarket. So let's just wait and see what we get. After the
51 |14 |00:02:54,270 ~-~-> 00:03:05,760 |opening bell, and I gave this very specific candle, the look for for your favorite you got. And then obviously executed on that as well. What I found
52 |15 |00:03:05,760 ~-~-> 00:03:15,840 |interesting is and you should be finding this as equally interesting. There are folks that are following me on Twitter that are actually taking the trades based
53 |16 |00:03:15,840 ~-~-> 00:03:26,520 |on their understanding, and I did not get them in the trade. And to me, I think that's fascinating. I'll share some of the videos that folks were putting up in
54 |17 |00:03:26,520 ~-~-> 00:03:37,920 |my Twitter space or not my Twitter space, but my Twitter timeline, responding to the one I shared my execution with. And my sons were like, you know, that's
55 |18 |00:03:37,920 ~-~-> 00:03:50,550 |awesome. To be able to see some of you taking the initiative to record yourself doing it. And it's fun, once you do it a few times and you get a feel for what
56 |19 |00:03:50,550 ~-~-> 00:04:03,930 |it is you're you're doing. It's a great way to journal to like there's no better way and to have an actual movement of you in and out of the marketplace. That
57 |20 |00:04:03,930 ~-~-> 00:04:16,200 |fluid entry management and exit. That is absolutely the highest form of journaling. Because you're actually doing the process. You're annotating the
58 |21 |00:04:16,200 ~-~-> 00:04:28,620 |chart as it goes. You'll remember it. Like I remember every every fluctuation today in ES in the morning session and afternoon. And some of the questions were
59 |22 |00:04:28,620 ~-~-> 00:04:39,180 |like Yeah, how did I know it was going to do certain things and how did I know what I'm going to do other things? Well at the risk of sounding like, you know,
60 |23 |00:04:41,400 ~-~-> 00:04:51,630 |well, typical mean. It takes a lot of time, obviously. Okay. And also you have to know like the back of your hand. Like anything else. I mean, if you I'm not a
61 |24 |00:04:51,630 ~-~-> 00:05:02,370 |mechanic, like I I own a lot of cars, but I couldn't fix one to save my own life. Like I don't know anything about them. So Have my checkbook covers the
62 |25 |00:05:02,370 ~-~-> 00:05:15,090 |expenses for those types of things, because I don't know them like the back of my hand. I spent my entire life doing this, and developing algorithms and doing
63 |26 |00:05:15,090 ~-~-> 00:05:34,110 |things that would bring more precise understanding and site execution, delivery. And, yeah, I'm pulling that veil back. Let me see what goes on. And I see these
64 |27 |00:05:34,110 ~-~-> 00:05:45,240 |folks. And believe me, I'm not troubled by this, okay, but I'm fascinated still, even with this degree of showing you where it's gonna go, telling you what
65 |28 |00:05:45,240 ~-~-> 00:05:53,820 |candle to focus on. And in its lie, like, you can't do better than that. You can't cherry pick that, okay, I got a challenge for all of you out there that
66 |29 |00:05:53,820 ~-~-> 00:06:03,330 |like to say these types of things, and any of you that don't really subscribe to the view that people that don't like what we're doing or whatever. I would like
67 |30 |00:06:03,330 ~-~-> 00:06:17,190 |for you to set out a task for yourself to try to cherry pick and execute, like you see me doing. You can use as many computer screens as you want. But do it?
68 |31 |00:06:18,000 ~-~-> 00:06:26,850 |Like I'm doing it? I would love to see that. I absolutely would love to see it. But it has to be in live market data. It can't be Market Replay. Okay, because
69 |32 |00:06:27,000 ~-~-> 00:06:37,500 |I'm not doing Market Replay, as you can see. So anyway, it's a challenge out there for the guys that like to talk all that shit. But I think that, you know,
70 |33 |00:06:40,440 ~-~-> 00:06:51,510 |for the folks that have been on the fence about what it is that I do, how I teach with the benefit of it is what's the what's the outcome of putting in all
71 |34 |00:06:51,510 ~-~-> 00:07:03,240 |this work? What's the what's the payback? For deferring all of your weekends, and your evenings watching sports and such, and so on, you still sneak and do
72 |35 |00:07:03,240 ~-~-> 00:07:13,680 |that. But you have a lot of study time. A lot of work that you got to put into this year, I'm putting it in there, too. So you're going to be expected to be
73 |36 |00:07:13,860 ~-~-> 00:07:25,740 |studying much more than the average person, even more than what I put my mentorship through. Because I'm going to be giving you obviously, you live
74 |37 |00:07:25,740 ~-~-> 00:07:35,220 |sessions, you got to go through those. And there's gonna be commentary every day, Monday through Friday. And there'll be also homework assignments. And I'll
75 |38 |00:07:35,220 ~-~-> 00:07:41,970 |try to be brief about what it is I want you to focus on. But if you don't do them, and if you're just going to be a type person that just waits to see what
76 |39 |00:07:41,970 ~-~-> 00:07:50,070 |everybody else tweets in response to me. And this say, Okay, well, that was that was equivalent to me doing it, I get it now. That's why a lot of folks that
77 |40 |00:07:50,070 ~-~-> 00:08:00,030 |watch my content in they want to hear the summary. Give me the summary, give me the cliffnotes give me the, you know, the PDF, just condensed down to one
78 |41 |00:08:00,030 ~-~-> 00:08:09,660 |paragraph so that we don't have to worry about watching all this stuff, or listen to this guy. And what you see me doing in my executions and management
79 |42 |00:08:09,690 ~-~-> 00:08:21,180 |and identifying what it is I'm expecting in the marketplace, typing it out and in annotations. You'll never get that unless you've listened to why I'm doing
80 |43 |00:08:21,180 ~-~-> 00:08:32,610 |certain things when I don't like to see certain things and market environments in certain market environments that are prone to produce conditions that are
81 |44 |00:08:32,610 ~-~-> 00:08:43,050 |just, you know, unfavorable, difficult even for me. And this afternoon, that was difficult for me. I mean, you might look at that and say, Well, shit, I mean,
82 |45 |00:08:43,050 ~-~-> 00:08:51,330 |you were all over that thing like white on rice. I was still telling my son that was walking up to me. And when they asked me questions had not now my wife came
83 |46 |00:08:51,360 ~-~-> 00:09:06,450 |up to the office and she says, Hey, I said now, and of course I'm dead now. I gotta pay the price when I when I join her. And in the typical evening. Yeah,
84 |47 |00:09:06,540 ~-~-> 00:09:20,460 |you know what husband and wives do? I'm going to be punished. But I was trying to dial in, and I just, I have to have an absolute 100% undivided attention when
85 |48 |00:09:20,460 ~-~-> 00:09:33,120 |it's like that. And because it's very difficult for me to have that being you wired the way I am. I try to avoid those conditions. And to make it easy for me
86 |49 |00:09:33,120 ~-~-> 00:09:43,890 |not to have to do a lot of those types of trading environments for teaching. I just teach my students to try to avoid those conditions. So one might look at
87 |50 |00:09:43,890 ~-~-> 00:09:52,290 |that and say, well, that's a shortcut is it saves me a lot of insanity because I know we'll look at just look what I was doing.
88 |51 |00:09:53,340 ~-~-> 00:10:02,100 |You know, I could literally teach just the afternoon session I did today. I can spend the rest of this year teaching all over that, just that one session when I
89 |52 |00:10:02,100 ~-~-> 00:10:11,010 |was doing, that's how deep dish it gets, like it's a lot. There's a lot of things that are going on. And you don't see that you don't know what's going on
90 |53 |00:10:11,010 ~-~-> 00:10:20,940 |in my decision making with processes, I'm going through my mind, all on a one minute chart. Still annotating, still keeping my train of thought about what it
91 |54 |00:10:20,940 ~-~-> 00:10:30,750 |is I'm watching. So there's a lot of things going on. And there's no fucking way that I can be doing that with another screen typing it in something. I'm
92 |55 |00:10:30,750 ~-~-> 00:10:43,830 |constantly doing that one screen on a market and to a level, I've already called last sent yelled, tweet with a smiley face. We were getting our cell side
93 |56 |00:10:43,830 ~-~-> 00:10:55,410 |liquidity pools tagged, and then wait before I started the stream on that stream, but this Twitter space, it hit the 399 6.75 level cleared out that
94 |57 |00:10:55,440 ~-~-> 00:11:07,530 |sounds like such a screenshot for I signed on to this. You have to be doing those types of things. In the early stages. You might think, well, big deal,
95 |58 |00:11:07,560 ~-~-> 00:11:16,560 |this, he's bragging, I'm not bragging, I don't need to brag. I'm, I'm really good at this, I don't need to brag about it. I've lived it. What I'm teaching
96 |59 |00:11:16,560 ~-~-> 00:11:28,380 |you to do is screenshot it like I'm showing you. So that way you can see these moments in your journal. Because we talked about very specific price levels. I'm
97 |60 |00:11:28,380 ~-~-> 00:11:37,770 |not ambiguous. I'm not saying up and down, I'm taking your attention to write to a specific level, not a zone. Because if you don't understand what it's going to
98 |61 |00:11:37,770 ~-~-> 00:11:46,890 |gravitate towards, you have no chance in being consistent. You'll be like the people out there on YouTube, that are starting their life dreams with 40 100
99 |62 |00:11:46,890 ~-~-> 00:12:01,350 |hours and shitting themselves all day long, thinking they're smart. You can't do those types of things. You can't you have to go in, look for specific things to
100 |63 |00:12:01,350 ~-~-> 00:12:13,920 |repeat. How do you know that they're going to repeat by screenshotting them, screenshot them over and over and over again. And what it does is it gives you a
101 |64 |00:12:13,920 ~-~-> 00:12:22,740 |snapshot of a memory that once you look at it again, and with annotations on it, saying you know, this is the sellside liquidity you're looking for not just a
102 |65 |00:12:22,740 ~-~-> 00:12:33,090 |blank chart at that level, like you have to dress the chart up. That way it records the moment of what it is that you were expecting to see in price. And
103 |66 |00:12:33,090 ~-~-> 00:12:46,290 |that little tiny photograph is like, to me. There are many ways they're like pictures of my children. You know, when I have my algorithm constantly giving me
104 |67 |00:12:46,560 ~-~-> 00:12:59,160 |photo opportunities, I still do it. You know, I may be out and about with my wife, I may be doing other things. If I see it on my phone, a screen screenshot.
105 |68 |00:12:59,730 ~-~-> 00:13:06,570 |Now I know what I'm looking for, but you don't necessarily know what you're looking for. Because you're so new. So you want to spend time doing this a lot
106 |69 |00:13:06,570 ~-~-> 00:13:15,300 |when price is going to go to our levels when I'm specifically calling a level. I'm teaching you to predict a bias Now earlier today, when I sent out the tweet
107 |70 |00:13:15,300 ~-~-> 00:13:32,550 |I said, you know, as long as we are beneath the 1040 fared a gap. If we're below that, then I'm gonna be looking for the 4003 1,096.75 cents on liquidity pool.
108 |71 |00:13:33,090 ~-~-> 00:13:49,140 |Notice I gave you very specific levels. Not you know, some random area or a zone. It's very specific levels. Now, we didn't get the levels delivered to
109 |72 |00:13:49,140 ~-~-> 00:13:58,920 |during the day session, we had to wait for the six o'clock restart when the futures market takes the hour off from five to six o'clock every day. But it
110 |73 |00:13:58,920 ~-~-> 00:14:10,020 |opened up immediately just melted. So Admittedly, I don't like to hold over during that break, because anything can happen mean they could drop bombs
111 |74 |00:14:10,020 ~-~-> 00:14:23,400 |somewhere new, something new anything can happen. And that's what makes me love more than anything now that I am proficient day trader and not being willing to
112 |75 |00:14:23,400 ~-~-> 00:14:34,920 |hold overnight. I don't I don't want to do those types of things anymore. It's too much risk. The gap risk in doing that has no way of measuring like it could
113 |76 |00:14:34,920 ~-~-> 00:14:49,560 |do crazy things. And if you're trading and holding size an unfavorable opening could undo you quickly. And it's not something you want to really invite the
114 |77 |00:14:49,590 ~-~-> 00:15:00,660 |that level of risk going out I want to mention something for folks that are wanting to focus on things that are outside day trading. Now the things I'm
115 |78 |00:15:00,660 ~-~-> 00:15:11,790 |teaching you in day trading is, same thing you can apply to a daily chart in a four hour. So while it's not conducive for those types of trades right now, and
116 |79 |00:15:11,820 ~-~-> 00:15:20,970 |that's how we're going to close the video, or not to be here. But the discussion here tonight about where we are and why I'm taking the morrow morning off the
117 |80 |00:15:22,050 ~-~-> 00:15:34,260 |the present state of the marketplace right now. doesn't permit me to feel confident about trading even short term, which is kind of like that was kind of
118 |81 |00:15:34,260 ~-~-> 00:15:44,700 |like my, my forte, short term trading one shot one kill, get in holder for a couple of days and try to get the minds portion of the weekly range. I have
119 |82 |00:15:44,700 ~-~-> 00:15:57,090 |shifted away from that over the last two and a half, three years. I've moved and migrated away from it to adapt to the increased risk that's in the marketplace
120 |83 |00:15:57,090 ~-~-> 00:16:09,510 |right now. If things were to get better, then I would obviously go back to that mindset, because it's a lot less work. commission costs are extremely lowered
121 |84 |00:16:09,510 ~-~-> 00:16:20,940 |and what lots and lots of intraday trades are, you see lots of executions being done. See guys out there doing like 40 contracts and 24 contracts and 16
122 |85 |00:16:20,940 ~-~-> 00:16:28,590 |contracts, and they show you them 1000 or 2000, by the end of the day, you don't realize it because you're not seeing it. But if you factor in all the fees and
123 |86 |00:16:28,590 ~-~-> 00:16:41,970 |the commissions, they end up making nothing, and sometimes are actually losing money. So that's the reason why I do very specific models, where the one I go to
124 |87 |00:16:41,970 ~-~-> 00:16:50,460 |for all of you most of the time is I start with six contracts. And then I'll split that for my second entry to pyramid my position, I'll go in with three
125 |88 |00:16:50,460 ~-~-> 00:17:03,030 |contracts. Dropping that down into one contract on my third partial. So I'm pier meeting in three positions to one trade to a 10 lot or 10 contract position.
126 |89 |00:17:04,260 ~-~-> 00:17:17,160 |Sometimes, sometimes all rolled up to 18 contracts, sometimes, but not all of them are 18 contract type setups. And sometimes they're not all 10 contract
127 |90 |00:17:17,160 ~-~-> 00:17:29,070 |setups. Do you go out there with the funded accounts. This is because you get to that point and start trading like that, because you see me doing I don't believe
128 |91 |00:17:29,070 ~-~-> 00:17:43,620 |he should, I believe you should just do one contract. Because knowing how to pyramid, build your positions up. That comes with a great deal of experience.
129 |92 |00:17:44,340 ~-~-> 00:17:55,320 |And too many times folks think they have that skill set. And they quickly find out the adult. And then when they don't have it, that frustration makes them
130 |93 |00:17:55,320 ~-~-> 00:18:03,210 |feel like that's the only way they could have been profitable. And that's a lie. That's something that plagued me early on, when I was trying to build in care
131 |94 |00:18:03,210 ~-~-> 00:18:14,700 |meeting. Back in the 90s, when I was trying to do these things in bonds in s&p, it was scary for me to do it because I was doing it the opposite direction or
132 |95 |00:18:14,700 ~-~-> 00:18:22,860 |not direction but I was going with one contract and doing two contracts and my second entry and then for contracts on the next one, and then eat contracts on
133 |96 |00:18:22,860 ~-~-> 00:18:33,870 |the next one. See how fast you're building the position up. And very little movement against you has a great deal compounded effort in drawdown versus where
134 |97 |00:18:33,870 ~-~-> 00:18:43,560 |I start with my largest position that makes the most sense which is less than one and a half percent usually. And then what I'll do is I'll build in the
135 |98 |00:18:43,560 ~-~-> 00:18:52,770 |largest position entry first split it in half put the next one in as I have equity for if I feel like I'm scaling in a better position size that I'm getting
136 |99 |00:18:52,770 ~-~-> 00:19:06,330 |more insight like you watched me through today in the pm session. I was literally putting on entry signals or trades every one of those could have been
137 |100 |00:19:06,360 ~-~-> 00:19:18,720 |your unique model every single one of them. So that's how many trades I can see a small fractal on a one minute chart. And it's even more when you drop it down
138 |101 |00:19:18,720 ~-~-> 00:19:31,260 |to a 15 second chart you get four of those candles per minute. So it allows me to have a great deal number of opportunities and setups as long as I know where
139 |102 |00:19:31,260 ~-~-> 00:19:42,930 |the markets likely to go. And if the time of the day when it should deliver morning session hours evening session hours European session
140 |103 |00:19:44,910 ~-~-> 00:19:55,980 |I'm confident I'll find myself every single day. And you're being made pretty to what it is I'm using as the draw like the magnet on price. That the idea of what
141 |104 |00:19:55,980 ~-~-> 00:20:07,290 |makes price go where and why. That's the experience on Monday, I'm telling you the future with my 30 years experience of knowing where it's likely to go next.
142 |105 |00:20:08,610 ~-~-> 00:20:14,880 |And because I'm teaching you by showing you example, after example, I've seen still people saying, yeah, what's the point of videos? Because videos are what
143 |106 |00:20:14,880 ~-~-> 00:20:22,080 |music? You know, I don't like that. I don't like when you send me a tweet like that, how about that? What am I supposed to do with that, I'm not going to bend
144 |107 |00:20:22,410 ~-~-> 00:20:32,520 |to what you want me to do. I'm going to do how it entertains me. And I know it works. It may not fit, you just turn the music off in this master chart, and go
145 |108 |00:20:32,520 ~-~-> 00:20:39,750 |into your own charts, and annotate what you see me doing. Because if you just watch the videos, little vignettes, small little ones, two minutes, or whatever,
146 |109 |00:20:39,750 ~-~-> 00:20:54,540 |on Twitter. And that's all you did just watched it. He wasted your time. Because I'm showing you in a very small, encapsulated portion of time, an entire thought
147 |110 |00:20:54,540 ~-~-> 00:21:04,740 |process. And I'm showing you how I'm in alignment with the algorithm. I'm placing myself exactly in the marketplace, when the algorithm is going to
148 |111 |00:21:04,740 ~-~-> 00:21:15,390 |deliver price a specific way. And just having that recording saved on your phone or saved to your computer and saying, Yeah, I got that saved as it's in the
149 |112 |00:21:15,390 ~-~-> 00:21:25,380 |archive of ICT. That's waste. That's still nobody any good. So what do you have it saved, I'm not deleting anything, you don't need to you don't have to worry
150 |113 |00:21:25,380 ~-~-> 00:21:35,760 |about it. But you need to go into the chart in the video, and match up what you see on your chart and annotate that there may be questions about what it is that
151 |114 |00:21:35,970 ~-~-> 00:21:46,050 |made me have a concern about that specific level? Okay, and you take that question, and you put it into a topical area in your journal, and you write the
152 |115 |00:21:46,050 ~-~-> 00:21:52,650 |question out, and then you keep watching what I'm doing all year long. And you're going to find the answers to those questions, because I'm going to
153 |116 |00:21:53,700 ~-~-> 00:22:02,880 |invariably answer it. And that's what I say all the time with folks that come to my channel. They're all worried about me, and what do I start, start where we
154 |117 |00:22:02,880 ~-~-> 00:22:14,250 |want to start? I mean, really, I mean, there's no real perfect way of doing it. But if you want to take advantage of what I'm doing this year, you want to be
155 |118 |00:22:14,250 ~-~-> 00:22:25,230 |joining what we're doing right now. Because it will force you to see what it is I'm showing you right now, you'll also see that I can do it, you'll see that the
156 |119 |00:22:25,230 ~-~-> 00:22:37,170 |market does, in fact, go where I'm outlining beforehand. And it's fun. It's an amazing interactive study, that for a number of six years or so, only my private
157 |120 |00:22:37,170 ~-~-> 00:22:47,640 |group had the opportunity to see this type of stuff. And we did this every day, every single day, for years, every single day. Okay. And you've probably
158 |121 |00:22:47,640 ~-~-> 00:22:59,460 |listened to people heard people or seen things that were made up and photoshopped and contrived. And we're conjectures on people's or opinions for
159 |122 |00:23:00,330 ~-~-> 00:23:10,980 |folks that were never with us in our community. Okay, I've opened up and now showed all of you. And you're, you're getting to see it. So it hopefully it
160 |123 |00:23:10,980 ~-~-> 00:23:19,890 |encourages you. Hopefully, it's not just a matter of you being viewed as me showing off because I can show off, believe me, this ain't showing off. I'm
161 |124 |00:23:19,890 ~-~-> 00:23:29,880 |teaching you. And I'm giving you example, after example, every single day, every single week of these things repeating. So that way, number one, the concern that
162 |125 |00:23:29,880 ~-~-> 00:23:41,280 |most of you have, is that you? Can anyone do this, forget that you don't know how to do it yet, because everybody doubts whether or not they're gonna be able
163 |126 |00:23:41,280 ~-~-> 00:23:53,670 |to do it. But the question is, do you have someone teaching you that can do it? Because I can't do it? If I can't prove it, if I can't show you what it's likely
164 |127 |00:23:53,670 ~-~-> 00:24:03,000 |to do, and I can't execute and I can't manage a trade with a stop loss and building a larger position. How many times have you seen me do it? It's the same
165 |128 |00:24:03,000 ~-~-> 00:24:16,290 |thing every time, precision, precision, precision. And it's going to levels I've outlined beforehand. So it's allowing you to take the fears and the anxiety you
166 |129 |00:24:16,290 ~-~-> 00:24:32,760 |have, which is reasonable. That's that's normal to have that in the beginning. Everyone has that. But I go out of my way to try to make it well encouraging,
167 |130 |00:24:32,940 ~-~-> 00:24:42,210 |because even though you know, in your in your heart, you can't do what I'm doing right now. You know that I can. So therefore I am an authority in this because I
168 |131 |00:24:42,210 ~-~-> 00:24:52,560 |can show you and I can tell you beforehand what it's going to do. And because I'm doing it repeatedly, every single week, that shows consistency, it shows
169 |132 |00:24:52,560 ~-~-> 00:25:02,940 |continuity and it shows prowess, so that way it dismisses in disarms. In my opinion it should the students that are guarded. They feel like I don't want to
170 |133 |00:25:02,940 ~-~-> 00:25:18,630 |do too much investment of my time and energy in this. Because this could be a scam. Oh shit. If you can't see this now being exactly what I've always said,
171 |134 |00:25:20,100 ~-~-> 00:25:30,210 |Honestly, even live streams aren't going to do it for you. It's not. And it's fine. You know. And if some of you don't want to learn this, that's fine. You
172 |135 |00:25:30,210 ~-~-> 00:25:39,780 |don't have to, there's plenty of room for the folks that want to learn it. And we're going to diminish the effectiveness if you don't do. I'm gonna still do
173 |136 |00:25:39,780 ~-~-> 00:25:57,210 |it, whether you'd like to do it or not. And I believe that if I had this coming up, like, I would literally be walking around, like, bouncing, you're excited.
174 |137 |00:25:58,350 ~-~-> 00:26:07,170 |Because when I was first learning, I didn't believe this type of precision, consistency, foresight and understanding about what price is going to do. I
175 |138 |00:26:07,170 ~-~-> 00:26:18,510 |didn't believe that was even possible. I thought I was just like, well, I want to know more people get lucky. This ain't luck. This is technical science. These
176 |139 |00:26:18,510 ~-~-> 00:26:30,000 |things are measurable, they're repeatable. And it's a transferable skill. Look at my timeline, you can see folks that did these trades themselves, not exactly
177 |140 |00:26:30,000 ~-~-> 00:26:40,020 |like mine, obviously not to that degree. But they were still getting in the trades, without me telling them how to do it. You know, how they got there.
178 |141 |00:26:41,640 ~-~-> 00:26:53,160 |Logging, journaling, studying back testing all the boring things that most of the students that come to me and quit or fail or complain? Or to say, Well, you
179 |142 |00:26:53,550 ~-~-> 00:27:02,880 |guys probably a fraud because I couldn't learn how to do this. He complicated How complicated is knowing a level, it's going to likely to reach to wait for
180 |143 |00:27:02,880 ~-~-> 00:27:10,980 |displacement in price in that direction. Wait for a fair value gap to form weak for to return back up in that fear of a gap. If it's gonna go lower, and then
181 |144 |00:27:10,980 ~-~-> 00:27:21,000 |engage it put the stop above the fair value gap, and then ride it out? How hard is that? Like, that's the easiest way of trading there is. You don't need trend
182 |145 |00:27:21,000 ~-~-> 00:27:30,810 |lines, you don't need any kind of indicators. You don't need anything except for reading price. Like that's easy. There's nothing simpler than that. There's
183 |146 |00:27:30,810 ~-~-> 00:27:36,330 |nothing out there simpler than that. You don't even need to put a moving average on here, what do you need the moving average for you already know what the job
184 |147 |00:27:36,330 ~-~-> 00:27:45,180 |liquidity is? It's dumb, you don't need, you don't need a moving average, you need none of that stuff. You need a clock. That's how has the right time for New
185 |148 |00:27:45,180 ~-~-> 00:27:57,180 |York time. Any open high, low and close. That's it. One minute, five minute 15 minute hourly chart for our chart or daily, whatever you want to use, they'll
186 |149 |00:27:57,360 ~-~-> 00:28:10,980 |all deliver price. But a move on a four hour chart isn't going to have as many opportunities to enter and engaged that a one and five minute chart would like I
187 |150 |00:28:10,980 ~-~-> 00:28:23,280 |can get in all kinds of trades and build up a position enormous position by putting new links on a chain from the main parent entry. And all the subordinate
188 |151 |00:28:23,280 ~-~-> 00:28:30,540 |entries that will be after that one is simply just adding another link. So it's a chain reference from where I'm entering to where it I'm thinking it's going to
189 |152 |00:28:30,540 ~-~-> 00:28:42,060 |go in that link of chain is this adding more? Well, links to the to the chain from where I'm where I want to be in the marketplace initially, and where I
190 |153 |00:28:42,060 ~-~-> 00:28:56,640 |believe the markets gonna go or Terminus final target. So I'm having fun doing this. Okay, I just want to let you all know I'm having a lot of fun. My wife
191 |154 |00:28:56,640 ~-~-> 00:29:04,380 |thinks I'm spending too much time doing it. But I told her I said, you know, I want you. I told you I was getting ready get into. And this is it. This is a yet
192 |155 |00:29:04,380 ~-~-> 00:29:14,790 |last year I'm going to do it. But I'm having fun. And I see the feedback. And I see the folks that are really engaging and studying and proving that they're
193 |156 |00:29:15,510 ~-~-> 00:29:26,910 |putting forth the effort, not just casually Netflix viewers. And I feed off of that. Like that gets me going like that motivates me. But I don't want any of
194 |157 |00:29:26,910 ~-~-> 00:29:27,750 |you to
195 |158 |00:29:29,520 ~-~-> 00:29:38,010 |take what I'm showing you in these examples as you're going to be able to trade just like that after this year. That will not happen. That won't happen. But you
196 |159 |00:29:38,010 ~-~-> 00:29:46,290 |will be able to use that model I taught last year on YouTube for free. You'll be able to you'll be able to trade that model proficiently. Without a doubt you
197 |160 |00:29:46,290 ~-~-> 00:29:54,090 |will absolutely know what you're doing. You'll know how to lose you determined to buy bias. You'll be able to tell the bias for the day. You'll be able to tell
198 |161 |00:29:54,090 ~-~-> 00:30:03,060 |the weekly expansion direction where the most expansion will occur for that week coming And you'll know the bias for each individual session, and you'll know
199 |162 |00:30:03,060 ~-~-> 00:30:15,630 |when to avoid it. And I think if you learn those skill sets, and you have done the work in studying what my entry criteria is, for a Faraday gap, a breaker, an
200 |163 |00:30:15,630 ~-~-> 00:30:27,390 |order block optimal trade entry, something to that effect. You'll have what you need, and you won't need to do anything else, you won't have to stay hand in
201 |164 |00:30:27,390 ~-~-> 00:30:36,870 |hand with me, you won't have to keep coming to my channel. And you won't have to go to anybody for anything, you'll be an independent, free thinker. And you'll
202 |165 |00:30:36,870 ~-~-> 00:30:45,570 |know exactly how to engage in overtime when you get to the point when you can get to a funded account, and you can withdraw money, or you have your own money,
203 |166 |00:30:45,600 ~-~-> 00:30:55,020 |and you trade with life funds, when you decide to do so on your own. Once you start taking in that kind of extra stream of income, it encourages you, it makes
204 |167 |00:30:55,020 ~-~-> 00:31:06,660 |you feel worthy, it makes you feel more capable as an adult. And it gives you confidence that even though things are getting expensive, and they're gonna get
205 |168 |00:31:06,660 ~-~-> 00:31:18,150 |even more expensive, you don't have to worry about falling behind in inflation. Because the skill set you're learning is going to always outpace inflation. Like
206 |169 |00:31:20,910 ~-~-> 00:31:33,300 |do you do you foresee yourself worrying about the price of gas per gallon, if you can make not just in a day, but let's say you can make five figures in a
207 |170 |00:31:33,300 ~-~-> 00:31:44,520 |week are you going to spend much time at all worrying about the cost of gasoline, for the cost of a gallon of milk, or a loaf of bread, or clothing for
208 |171 |00:31:44,520 ~-~-> 00:31:54,270 |you or your children, you're not going to worry about those things. And that's what I'm trying to do, I'm trying to provide a way for you to get that skill
209 |172 |00:31:54,270 ~-~-> 00:32:02,940 |set. So that way you can live a little bit more comfortable life, I'm not promising you're going to get rich, the app, people can see the opportunity for
210 |173 |00:32:02,940 ~-~-> 00:32:12,930 |something like that. But I can't, in good conscience promise that. But I can promise that you will learn how to read price, you'll be consistently able to
211 |174 |00:32:12,930 ~-~-> 00:32:26,520 |read price, the default end result of that is whatever you want to make it if you want to build this up to a big monstrosity in terms of trading revenue, who
212 |175 |00:32:26,520 ~-~-> 00:32:42,210 |says you can't do that? Who says you can't. So, it's a matter of perspective, it's a matter of what you're doing this for. And I don't want any of you to see
213 |176 |00:32:42,210 ~-~-> 00:32:49,410 |what it is I'm showing you and think, Okay, well this is what Thomas and I'm going to be able to do within a year now you're gonna be able to do one solid
214 |177 |00:32:49,410 ~-~-> 00:33:02,580 |setup per week, one good setup that you're gonna be able to find, without a doubt, you will find one that will at least at least attack one of the most
215 |178 |00:33:02,610 ~-~-> 00:33:13,410 |major expenses you have for each month. And that's usually the rent or the mortgage payment. And recently, groceries is getting real close to the average
216 |179 |00:33:13,860 ~-~-> 00:33:26,760 |mortgage or rent payment now. So if you could have that coming in each month, that is a huge weight off your back anyone's back, right? So I'm trying to start
217 |180 |00:33:26,760 ~-~-> 00:33:37,920 |you like that, give me a low hanging fruit objective. Think about what I showed in that end series. You make an entity, that that mindset that was what I was
218 |181 |00:33:37,920 ~-~-> 00:33:48,630 |cultivating, leading into this year. So that way, you know why you're doing what you're doing. You're not trying to be the biggest recipient of a payout. That's
219 |182 |00:33:48,630 ~-~-> 00:34:01,800 |not what any of you should be aspiring to do right now. Largely because the markets are very difficult. Right now, these markets I have never okay. Listen,
220 |183 |00:34:02,520 ~-~-> 00:34:18,450 |your teacher, your mentor, Mr. Everything, Mr. Wonderful. This is the hardest. The markets have you ever been in 30 years of my engagement with them. I've
221 |184 |00:34:18,450 ~-~-> 00:34:34,530 |never had markets this choppy. This reluctant to to move. It's spending a whole lot of time doing time distortion. You call it chop and consolidation, but it's
222 |185 |00:34:34,800 ~-~-> 00:34:48,750 |entering longer phases of just meandering around. And you have to you have to be very careful in these conditions because even though there's a potential for the
223 |186 |00:34:48,750 ~-~-> 00:35:02,760 |market to move, they can be delayed in the move take effect and do it in shorter time. But If you weren't on right then and there, you missed the entire thing.
224 |187 |00:35:05,340 ~-~-> 00:35:14,970 |So it requires you to be number one patient means you need to be nimble, being able to get in and get out. And also, you have to have the skill set of knowing
225 |188 |00:35:15,570 ~-~-> 00:35:24,510 |the condition that you're about to enter, or that you maybe have just entered a trade and you realize once you get in, oh, no, I'm in the mud. Like, I'm stuck.
226 |189 |00:35:24,540 ~-~-> 00:35:35,070 |But it's molasses. It's it's real sticky, it won't let you move around. And soon as you identify that, you know, as a new student, the best thing you can do is
227 |190 |00:35:35,070 ~-~-> 00:35:47,250 |this class, the trade and dispute as you protected yourself. It's like playing cards or poker, you gotta hear and the chances of you winning with that hand is
228 |191 |00:35:47,250 ~-~-> 00:35:55,230 |probably very slim. So are you going to bet more money? Some people do they try to bluff is lot of people in the industry as gurus and teachers incessantly
229 |192 |00:35:55,230 ~-~-> 00:36:08,910 |compete with one another. And that's a bluff, bluff bluff. You don't want to bluff. You know, or try to dare the market. You know, to to arm wrestle you. And
230 |193 |00:36:09,090 ~-~-> 00:36:20,490 |by you putting more money into the marketplace or opening your stop loss or removing your stop loss. That would be foolish. And I saw I saw a comment that I
231 |194 |00:36:20,490 ~-~-> 00:36:29,250 |don't, I'm not letting comments on my YouTube channel. And you're welcome to put a comment on Twitter, because I post the link on Twitter. So if you want to
232 |195 |00:36:29,250 ~-~-> 00:36:38,730 |leave a comment, you can do it there is too much babysitting on YouTube. All these people scamming. pretending to be me, what's that phone number? I don't
233 |196 |00:36:38,730 ~-~-> 00:36:49,530 |even use WhatsApp. But a gentleman was saying, hey, you know, why don't you take off your stop loss and the trade that I shared. The other day, I didn't take off
234 |197 |00:36:49,530 ~-~-> 00:37:02,040 |my I don't ever take my stop off. I always have stopped and my stop reduces and gets closer to my entry. As the trade moves in my favor, I'm never opening up or
235 |198 |00:37:02,040 ~-~-> 00:37:14,640 |removing it. But I want to talk a little bit in a couple minutes and get off your butt. Tomorrow. If you open up your E Mini s&p daily chart, I'll give you a
236 |199 |00:37:14,640 ~-~-> 00:37:28,260 |minute or two to get there. The symbol on trading view is letter E S, H two zero to three. And it's the daily timeframe we're going to be looking at.
237 |200 |00:37:36,360 ~-~-> 00:37:43,950 |Alright, so if you look at what we've done thus far for today, we started trading for Wednesday already at six o'clock, we started trading. So it's been
238 |201 |00:37:43,950 ~-~-> 00:37:59,400 |trading for like two hours. Yesterday, which is technically still today for me. Tuesday's trading on January 17. It created a higher high and we traded up into
239 |202 |00:37:59,430 ~-~-> 00:38:17,910 |December 14, closing price on trading view. Okay. Look at the candlestick for January 13 and January 12. See how we have this really long wicks towards the
240 |203 |00:38:17,910 ~-~-> 00:38:33,000 |low of each of those candles. There's really no imbalance in any of that. And we have that really long wick on December 13. See that. So we're in a weird area
241 |204 |00:38:33,000 ~-~-> 00:38:51,990 |for price. There's nothing really one sided? No words. My preferred way of trading is to look at the weekly range on a candlestick chart for the weekly
242 |205 |00:38:51,990 ~-~-> 00:39:03,960 |chart and determine where did I think the most movement is going to be higher or lower based on the directional tendency for the weekly chart to gravitate to a
243 |206 |00:39:03,960 ~-~-> 00:39:12,450 |pool of liquidity or an imbalance above or below the marketplace. Either one, I don't care, but I'm spending most of my time looking to trade in that direction.
244 |207 |00:39:15,210 ~-~-> 00:39:30,210 |Then I'm trying to time. If I'm bullish for the week, I'm looking to do a monday tuesday or by New York session entry long. And if I don't get that, then I defer
245 |208 |00:39:30,210 ~-~-> 00:39:41,850 |to intraday trading. And if I don't get the daily range for a day, then I'll go into sessions and scout and do small little intraday swings per session. And
246 |209 |00:39:42,240 ~-~-> 00:39:52,680 |that's how I've managed myself throughout the years and that's how I teach my students. I don't have looking at the daily chart right now. I don't have a
247 |210 |00:39:52,680 ~-~-> 00:40:05,790 |clean read on a directional bias. That's high probability right now. I don't see it obviously going higher and I don't see obviously going lower. So because I
248 |211 |00:40:05,790 ~-~-> 00:40:17,370 |can see no real easy directional reach for the next draw on liquidity. I'm neutral, especially now since we've done taken out ourselves out liquidity
249 |212 |00:40:17,370 ~-~-> 00:40:30,480 |pools, which was today's target for Tuesday's trading. I was able to capitalize capitalize on the pm session, but I was not able to see beyond that. And I still
250 |213 |00:40:30,480 ~-~-> 00:40:39,210 |don't I have no idea what to expect going into tomorrow. I don't know what to expect going into London. Now, for some of you that's like, what the hell he
251 |214 |00:40:39,210 ~-~-> 00:40:49,650 |does say? That ICT says He just said he doesn't know something. Right? It happens sometimes, I can't get a read on what price is going to do right now.
252 |215 |00:40:49,710 ~-~-> 00:41:05,580 |Because it's an area of conflict. Either side can't be argued as a potential drop. And I can't sell or buy with anything that's in the chart on a daily. Yes,
253 |216 |00:41:05,580 ~-~-> 00:41:15,690 |there's a swing high forming potentially, if Wednesday has the lower high that we have right now than what we had on Tuesday's trading. But by that alone,
254 |217 |00:41:16,260 ~-~-> 00:41:26,580 |doesn't give me anything. It doesn't give me enough information to to build a narrative that would lead to a bias that would lead to a high probability little
255 |218 |00:41:26,580 ~-~-> 00:41:37,770 |resistance liquidity run. So that's the that's the process. That's my internal dialogue that the analyst and me goes through those processes. And I'm telling
256 |219 |00:41:37,770 ~-~-> 00:41:52,530 |you, the analyst, the inner circle trader, the brain behind this, motormouth is communicating to you in a little uncertain terms that there is nothing of high
257 |220 |00:41:52,650 ~-~-> 00:42:08,970 |probability right now. So tonight into London, and going into tomorrow morning, there may be something that forms that can't be seen in charts right now. I
258 |221 |00:42:08,970 ~-~-> 00:42:18,750 |still won't be there to see it, because I'm removing myself from it. I'm going to be doing things in my personal life, instead of doing that, so I'm gonna get
259 |222 |00:42:18,750 ~-~-> 00:42:27,930 |caught up doing that. And then I'll look at 130 Tomorrow in the afternoon to see if there's something that would be otherwise useful for us as a study for the pm
260 |223 |00:42:27,930 ~-~-> 00:42:37,380 |session. Meaning that if I think a particular pool of liquidity or a specific level, I want you to study going into the close of tomorrow. You'll know like I
261 |224 |00:42:37,380 ~-~-> 00:42:46,530 |gave you today, like I do every day. Okay, but as of right now, I wanted to really make it a point of you hearing me say these words. Because if you're not
262 |225 |00:42:46,530 ~-~-> 00:42:56,340 |used to me saying, because my students that spent time with me, for years, they have heard me say these phrases and, and remark on times, and it's not a lot of
263 |226 |00:42:56,340 ~-~-> 00:43:06,300 |times that I get like this. But you know, it's shocking to some people because they think I know every thing that the markets gonna do in every given second. I
264 |227 |00:43:06,300 ~-~-> 00:43:16,320 |don't, I just know when that is high probability, the I'm going to be all over that. Because I knew what it's likely to do. But in between those time periods,
265 |228 |00:43:16,320 ~-~-> 00:43:31,260 |there's going to be periods of price action, that doesn't really provide me a great deal of odds in my favor. So it makes me more prone to look like a retail
266 |229 |00:43:31,260 ~-~-> 00:43:40,020 |trader doing things in there because I have time doing things because the pattern is they're doing things like that because somebody else is hurt, someone
267 |230 |00:43:40,020 ~-~-> 00:43:50,580 |else is doing something else and influence I'm not influenced by anybody. And you shouldn't be either. But when I tell you, I'm not trying to do something, or
268 |231 |00:43:50,580 ~-~-> 00:43:59,610 |if I say we're in low probability conditions, or sit on your hands and be patient. Those are the times even if you think you're a good trader don't do
269 |232 |00:43:59,610 ~-~-> 00:44:17,250 |anything. Just sit still, you will learn to appreciate that throughout this year. Because your lack of experience in knowing how that is advantageous right
270 |233 |00:44:17,250 ~-~-> 00:44:27,750 |now. Because you think it's more most likely a better approach for you to be busy doing something trading, you know, I got money to make I got shit to do.
271 |234 |00:44:27,990 ~-~-> 00:44:48,300 |Let me get an entry trade truth. Yeah, you're, you can't run fast, efficiently and use very little energy. If you're running in two feet deep of mud. It's a
272 |235 |00:44:48,300 ~-~-> 00:44:55,380 |slow arduous task is to get your foot up out of the mud. And then your footing is going to be off because you might even lose your balance once you get the
273 |236 |00:44:55,380 ~-~-> 00:45:06,510 |foot of the month. That's what it feels like even for me if I'm in those kind of conditions trading. And I showed you this. The other day, when I took two small
274 |237 |00:45:06,570 ~-~-> 00:45:16,200 |position sizes, first of all, I got stopped out on both. That's the way it would be for me to. So when I communicate to you as my students and say, Look, I'm
275 |238 |00:45:16,200 ~-~-> 00:45:27,510 |sitting on my hands, okay? Or I mean, I say that I say, sit on your hands or be patient, I'm communicating with the analyst and me is telling the trader
276 |239 |00:45:27,600 ~-~-> 00:45:40,860 |Michael, what to do. So the experience, the analyst that has no risk in this, all he has, is the task of analysis. This is your bias, this is what you're
277 |240 |00:45:40,860 ~-~-> 00:45:48,900 |supposed to be focusing on. Don't do anything right now, conditions are not favorable. That's the that's the role of the analyst, sound money management.
278 |241 |00:45:49,710 ~-~-> 00:46:03,060 |And then me, Michael, the trader has to listen to ICT analyst. And I have to submit to that sound logic. And that experience that guided me this far. And you
279 |242 |00:46:03,060 ~-~-> 00:46:13,470 |see the fruits of it in my executions, and my teachings and analysis. But ratchet ICT, the one that usually manifests themselves here on Twitter spaces,
280 |243 |00:46:13,470 ~-~-> 00:46:29,940 |the foul mouth one, okay, my alter ego, that guy wants to impress everybody, like he wants to get out there. And, you know, do WWE II, style mentorship, and
281 |244 |00:46:29,940 ~-~-> 00:46:39,600 |some of you like that? I don't, but I use it as therapy, sometimes it allows me to get things off my chest. And once I let go of it, then I can go about my
282 |245 |00:46:39,600 ~-~-> 00:46:49,530 |business with my family. And I won't be so high strung or wound up. I don't feel I need an artist you can hear tonight. Like I'm not all that intimated to me.
283 |246 |00:46:50,280 ~-~-> 00:47:04,110 |I'm fatigued. For most part, I'm tired. I've been going for like, three days pretty solid. And I'm tired. So I haven't had the opportunity to get all wound
284 |247 |00:47:04,110 ~-~-> 00:47:15,300 |up. And honestly, the last few days have been just wonderful in terms of being able to teach and show you execute. John, my sons. It has been a really nice
285 |248 |00:47:15,720 ~-~-> 00:47:33,330 |week so far. Last week was awesome, too. But I don't see anything for me to lead you to study intently into London, or tomorrow morning.
286 |249 |00:47:35,040 ~-~-> 00:47:45,540 |I am aware that something might form and it might be an amazing trading morning or overnight might do something amazing. I don't see it right now. So therefore,
287 |250 |00:47:45,570 ~-~-> 00:47:56,010 |therefore I would not. Look at this condition right now that we have in the daily chart, where it's just simply not there's nothing there. There's nothing
288 |251 |00:47:56,010 ~-~-> 00:48:09,000 |there for me to say, oh, it's it's going to go to this daily high. For this daily low. The only imbalance is if you look on the daily chart on January 11,
289 |252 |00:48:09,000 ~-~-> 00:48:22,680 |Wednesday, that big up candle. If you look at the candle to the right of it on Thursday, January 12, that candles low and on the candle of January 10, that
290 |253 |00:48:22,680 ~-~-> 00:48:34,770 |candles high there's a small little Faraday gap there. If we were to drop down, and that's, that's a considerable drop. That would be an area for me to watch.
291 |254 |00:48:35,310 ~-~-> 00:48:46,860 |Because also about midpoint of that wick on the ninth of January, that is that hit halfway between the high and the open of January 9 candle on the daily chart
292 |255 |00:48:46,860 ~-~-> 00:49:02,640 |of ES H two, zero to three. Halfway between that with time and the open price of that candle. Nine is essentially the high of January 10. So there's two factors
293 |256 |00:49:02,640 ~-~-> 00:49:12,360 |right there should this thing start going down. I liked that level as like a drop in liquidity. I'm not isn't the main takeaway here. I'm not suggesting
294 |257 |00:49:12,390 ~-~-> 00:49:21,810 |that's what's going to occur. I don't know. Right now I don't have a clear understanding of where it will likely go. And if you go to the upside if you
295 |258 |00:49:21,840 ~-~-> 00:49:36,660 |consider just yesterday or for me Tuesday, the high if you run through Tuesday's high, but look to the left over in the 15th of December the 14th. The 13th Like
296 |259 |00:49:36,660 ~-~-> 00:49:50,280 |there's a whole lot of wick action there. So these are instances and you're gonna hear me say this throughout the year. My mentorship students that have
297 |260 |00:49:50,280 ~-~-> 00:49:59,460 |been with me for years, they know what I mean by this. But when I get in situations like this where I don't want to say here's Plan A, here's Plan B, and
298 |261 |00:49:59,460 ~-~-> 00:50:06,150 |then whatever how happens, I can come back and say, See, I was smart. That's what Twitter people do. They have two outcomes, they do a squiggly line up, but
299 |262 |00:50:06,150 ~-~-> 00:50:14,490 |they do a squiggly line down. And when one of them pans out, their followers cheer more and worship them, look them up on a pedestal and say you're the goat.
300 |263 |00:50:15,270 ~-~-> 00:50:26,130 |And that drives me nuts, because that was nothing. Anybody can do that. So, while at the moment, right now, I have that scenario. And if I was a retail
301 |264 |00:50:26,340 ~-~-> 00:50:32,970 |Guru, I would give you the squiggly line that says it would go up to this level, or it would go down to that level, and then wait and see what happens in it.
302 |265 |00:50:32,970 ~-~-> 00:50:46,020 |There it is. And you all would say the stuff that I don't like to say, you see. But what I do with my students is, I'll say, these are the problem areas I have
303 |266 |00:50:46,020 ~-~-> 00:50:56,130 |right now, because I can't, as a analyst, settle in on one side of the marketplace and go with a bias that's bullish or bearish. And because I can't do
304 |267 |00:50:56,130 ~-~-> 00:51:10,440 |that, I can't frame a narrative. And because of that, I can't predict a low resistance liquidity run. That's high probability. So where am I in terms of my
305 |268 |00:51:10,440 ~-~-> 00:51:21,330 |analysis, I'm in a position of paralysis. I can't make a call. So if I can't make a call, I have to sit on my hands and do nothing and have no regrets about
306 |269 |00:51:21,330 ~-~-> 00:51:31,350 |it. Zero. In new students lose their minds. When I first started teaching mentorship. The first time I did that they were sending me emails, like, what
307 |270 |00:51:31,350 ~-~-> 00:51:38,520 |the hell you mean, you don't know what you're talking about right now. There's, there's always a setup. Yeah, there's always movement in price. I'm not, I'm not
308 |271 |00:51:38,520 ~-~-> 00:51:50,610 |saying that's not the case, that's clearly obvious. But there needs to be a way of framing risk, managing the risk, and does the risk invite a larger magnitude
309 |272 |00:51:50,640 ~-~-> 00:52:00,720 |of potential profit, that's going to be delivered to you, within the capacity of a low resistance liquidity run, meaning it's going to move real easy, real fast,
310 |273 |00:52:00,900 ~-~-> 00:52:09,570 |like I was explaining in the pm session, where we would see a sharp cascading effect in the sell side, that move, that's a low resistance to put your own
311 |274 |00:52:09,570 ~-~-> 00:52:20,640 |signature. When it starts, it's like, boom, it just goes there. It's like a waterfall just for a rocket shoot, not when it goes up. It's just it's very
312 |275 |00:52:20,640 ~-~-> 00:52:33,480 |little resistance. That's why I dubbed it a low resistance liquidity run. It's not out in books, you know, it's, this is my theory, my logic. And this is how
313 |276 |00:52:33,480 ~-~-> 00:52:46,470 |the algorithm has been coded. So when we see price engines deliver like this, it's following that logic. And because I have no clear indication, based on the
314 |277 |00:52:46,470 ~-~-> 00:52:59,880 |things that I employ, as the analyst, and then engage with as the trader, I cannot allow ratchet ICT to take the wheel tomorrow morning or stay up tonight,
315 |278 |00:52:59,880 ~-~-> 00:53:14,460 |because I'm tired. In trade in conditions where I don't have favorable framework to engage in. It can get choppy, you can go against me I can, I'm more apt to be
316 |279 |00:53:14,460 ~-~-> 00:53:28,320 |wrong. So I have to do what I have to remove myself from the opportunity of getting in a trade. You asked me all the time, how do you control? Not doing
317 |280 |00:53:28,320 ~-~-> 00:53:36,180 |this? And how do you keep from over trading and conditions? And how do you identify times when you don't wonder, I just did it here and throughout this
318 |281 |00:53:36,180 ~-~-> 00:53:46,680 |year, when I get to those conditions. And there's points in the analysis and and the daily calendar presents those conditions as we have right now. Some of you
319 |282 |00:53:46,680 ~-~-> 00:53:57,000 |may be looking at this. I mean, I see 15 Different things I could be doing. Okay, that's you. That's you. I don't think like you. I don't think like
320 |283 |00:53:57,000 ~-~-> 00:54:08,490 |anybody. So I'm sharing with you the reasons why I'm taking tomorrow morning off allowing for the market to create an environment that is more conducive for me
321 |284 |00:54:08,490 ~-~-> 00:54:20,550 |to find a low resistance decoder and signature in the pm session. It's a it's a monumental moment in your career. When you get to the point when you can
322 |285 |00:54:20,550 ~-~-> 00:54:32,280 |identify that and have no fear of missing anything. No regret if it does move, and you weren't there. When you know how to trade trades will be made available
323 |286 |00:54:32,280 ~-~-> 00:54:49,050 |to you. But I can't get a one sidedness to the marketplace, then I have to do what I'm going to tell you now. I tell my students Okay, gun to my head. This is
324 |287 |00:54:49,050 ~-~-> 00:55:04,050 |what I would favor over the opposing side both both of them being equal in terms of the lack of probability being on that side. Like being 5050. In other words,
325 |288 |00:55:04,140 ~-~-> 00:55:14,520 |okay, I don't like conditions like that, like, it needs to be so overwhelmingly obvious because if it's obvious, and I have more signatures pointing to the
326 |289 |00:55:14,520 ~-~-> 00:55:24,930 |market moving one direction, it's very next to impossible to frame it in an opposing direction. That is my definition of a high probability trade in those
327 |290 |00:55:24,930 ~-~-> 00:55:34,620 |high probability trade conditions, low resistance liquidity run signatures will form the quick, easy real and fast ones to targets. That's what you're looking
328 |291 |00:55:34,620 ~-~-> 00:55:44,670 |for as a trader. But you can't appreciate that until you see me showing you example, after example, after example, which is the reason why I do that, I do
329 |292 |00:55:44,670 ~-~-> 00:55:55,050 |those little videos like that, I don't need to do these videos, I enjoy them, I could just make them and have no annotations and just trade in, I would
330 |293 |00:55:55,050 ~-~-> 00:56:03,570 |entertain myself, but you would get nothing from it. I annotate them so that way, you can go into your charts, and dig into those areas on even a smaller
331 |294 |00:56:03,570 ~-~-> 00:56:12,990 |timeframe, or go up to a higher timeframe and see what those those levels provided in terms of the things I teach. So when I say gun to my head in this
332 |295 |00:56:12,990 ~-~-> 00:56:27,630 |situation, I would favor the market trading down into path of the wick on the 13th of January, Friday 13th. So on your daily chart, you should take your
333 |296 |00:56:27,630 ~-~-> 00:56:40,530 |Fibonacci I'm gonna do this now. So that we can make sure you're doing it right, every Fibonacci and click it on the low of January 13, that daily candle and
334 |297 |00:56:40,530 ~-~-> 00:57:02,820 |drag it up to the opening of the candle and drop your Fibonacci there, you should arrive at a price of 3,982.50398 2.50. Okay, I would favor that level as
335 |298 |00:57:02,850 ~-~-> 00:57:17,430 |something to watch going into tonight and into tomorrow. Because that's my gun, though, had no idea. Because there's so much I'm gonna tell you why I've cited
336 |299 |00:57:17,430 ~-~-> 00:57:28,260 |there. And this is not to say that this is what it's gonna be. I'm telling you that my analysis is conflicted. So I'm in a neutral position right now. I'm
337 |300 |00:57:28,260 ~-~-> 00:57:35,850 |favoring the price level just gave you because of look at the high on November 15.
338 |301 |00:57:37,110 ~-~-> 00:57:48,810 |On es on the daily chart, and then look at the high on November 25. Of 2022. That's a higher high, then we had another higher high on the first of December
339 |302 |00:57:48,810 ~-~-> 00:58:02,040 |2022. Then we had the higher high on that big long wick on December 13 of 2022. So how many times have we reached up into the premium, and each time taking out
340 |303 |00:58:02,040 ~-~-> 00:58:13,980 |sells out liquidity? Well, if you count the high on November 15 of 2022, then that high being reached on the 25th of November, that's one time by Psy was
341 |304 |00:58:13,980 ~-~-> 00:58:23,220 |taken out. And then the same thing occurs with a higher high forming on the first of December. And then that high was taken out on the 13th of December. So
342 |305 |00:58:23,220 ~-~-> 00:58:35,400 |we have seen 1234 times the market reach up and it has been unable to sustain those levels. And then now when it dropped down, the only thing it took out in
343 |306 |00:58:35,400 ~-~-> 00:58:49,440 |terms of sell side liquidity were the relative equal lows formed on November 17 of 2022. And the low of December 7 of 2022. So there's relative equal lows that
344 |307 |00:58:49,440 ~-~-> 00:59:07,890 |was breached on the 15th of December of 2020. All of this is on the daily chart of ES Okay. So we've gone down to a low of December 22. But we didn't even sweep
345 |308 |00:59:07,890 ~-~-> 00:59:22,320 |out the low of November 3 of 2029. Not that I think that's where it's going but we've already tried to go higher, and we're stalling out in an area after
346 |309 |00:59:22,320 ~-~-> 00:59:41,220 |hitting the closing price of December 14 As I mentioned, which is the reason why I liked the 4030 level. Okay, the 40 30.7 VI was the actual level, but the same
347 |310 |00:59:41,250 ~-~-> 00:59:50,280 |typing and make it easy for everybody follow along and this gave you 4030 But it was framed on the 14th of December of 2022. That closing price. So if you drag
348 |311 |00:59:50,460 ~-~-> 01:00:01,800 |online on that to the right, you'll see that's what we dug up into on Tuesday's trading and then it was unable to do what press hire you It wilted in went to
349 |312 |01:00:01,800 ~-~-> 01:00:16,950 |ourselves either outline today. So, because of that, I'm thinking that we got to start looking for inefficiencies because there's no stops, except for the daily
350 |313 |01:00:16,950 ~-~-> 01:00:30,690 |lows, referencing a daily chart. So if you look at the January 13, candle, the middle point of the wick, you want to know that and you want to use the low of
351 |314 |01:00:30,720 ~-~-> 01:00:31,710 |January 13.
352 |315 |01:00:36,750 ~-~-> 01:00:50,160 |You want to use the high of January 9. So those three levels, those are key levels that you should have on your chart, going through London tonight. And all
353 |316 |01:00:50,160 ~-~-> 01:01:01,950 |through till tomorrow. And going into tomorrow's afternoon session, I'll join you all around probably 115 120. So I'll be quiet in the morning, I won't be
354 |317 |01:01:01,950 ~-~-> 01:01:09,540 |looking at the charts. So there won't be anything for me to prompt you doing anything that you get your work done or focusing on anything but those three
355 |318 |01:01:09,540 ~-~-> 01:01:18,690 |levels, I would have my chart because going in my head, I think it's more likely even though it's low probability, but it would be more likely to do that, than
356 |319 |01:01:18,690 ~-~-> 01:01:26,940 |to go higher. And if it goes higher, I can be wrong, and I don't care. And if it goes down and hits those levels and provides a trade, I don't care because I'm
357 |320 |01:01:26,940 ~-~-> 01:01:37,860 |not going to be there to engage in it right. So I have this I've just this armed anybody that saying that I use this as a 5050. Look, I'm smart type thing, which
358 |321 |01:01:37,860 ~-~-> 01:01:48,060 |is what you see on social media 90% of time, with fakes. I don't do that. So I'm giving you the benefit of my experience and what I do cosign with, like I would
359 |322 |01:01:48,060 ~-~-> 01:01:55,350 |do any other time I tell you, this is where it's likely do not mark this on your chart, we're going to be aiming for this. Now you see me putting you into
360 |323 |01:01:55,590 ~-~-> 01:02:06,000 |specific candles and focusing on what a setup should form. So training your eye. I'm teaching you also to respect the level of risk when the conditions are not
361 |324 |01:02:06,000 ~-~-> 01:02:15,300 |favorable for high probability. That's proper mentoring. That's proper learning. That's how you teach someone how to do this themselves. Because I can teach you
362 |325 |01:02:15,300 ~-~-> 01:02:23,610 |how to get into a trade. I can teach you money management, I can tell you what the patterns look like. And you can do them beautifully. Show your charting and
363 |326 |01:02:23,610 ~-~-> 01:02:34,470 |final real quick, you'll be able to take read 1% when the markets are really favorable. Where will you mess up in conditions like this where it can get ugly.
364 |327 |01:02:35,220 ~-~-> 01:02:51,450 |And then that does what it invites your lack of experience to draw on emotion. When someone has no or next to no experience being consistent, or successful in
365 |328 |01:02:51,450 ~-~-> 01:03:05,190 |something, and they taste failure, they immediately go into defensive. And because this is potentially money. And for men the transaction of being right or
366 |329 |01:03:05,190 ~-~-> 01:03:12,390 |wrong and men don't like to be wrong. The same individuals don't want to pull over and ask for directions, I'll pull over and ask for directions. I'm not
367 |330 |01:03:12,390 ~-~-> 01:03:20,880 |wasting my time or my money in gas. I'll pull over and ask them ahead. So I get somewhere. I never got kind of guy. But all my friends were the kind of guy that
368 |331 |01:03:20,880 ~-~-> 01:03:35,220 |never wanted to pull over an extra fucking directions which made no fucking sense to me. Common sense is more likely to be in the female traders. Lack of
369 |332 |01:03:35,220 ~-~-> 01:03:49,260 |common sense is usually in the men. So when you have this moment of conflicted analysis, the men will want to go in there and prove themselves. I'm better than
370 |333 |01:03:49,260 ~-~-> 01:03:56,880 |this, I'll carve out something I'm gonna grab my club like a caveman, and go out there and box something over its head and drag it back to my key because that's
371 |334 |01:03:56,880 ~-~-> 01:04:07,710 |the way we roll. Where women will say, You know what, this isn't worth the risk. I have other things I can do. And I'll come back and look at the chart did and
372 |335 |01:04:07,830 ~-~-> 01:04:15,210 |it won't cost me any money. It won't cost me any time. There'll be a smaller time investment, looking at it in hindsight, and I'll be able to glean whatever
373 |336 |01:04:15,210 ~-~-> 01:04:24,810 |it was that took place. From a risk free perspective. Men generally don't like to do that. That's why men generally don't like the back test. Because they
374 |337 |01:04:24,810 ~-~-> 01:04:38,850 |don't view that as effective club use, like a caveman going out there and bought something over the head and drag it back to its cave. So if you ever get to the
375 |338 |01:04:38,850 ~-~-> 01:04:49,470 |point where you can find your spouse or significant other, you know, as a trade partner, but that way you can be accountable to one another. If you're honest
376 |339 |01:04:49,470 ~-~-> 01:05:00,630 |with each other, and you're able to support one another and try not to compete. I believe that's the only way two minds can come together. other and be
377 |340 |01:05:00,630 ~-~-> 01:05:09,930 |effective. If it's a spousal type thing, or a life partner where you know, you're, you're committed that person, and maybe you haven't gotten married yet
378 |341 |01:05:09,930 ~-~-> 01:05:18,540 |or whatever, but you care about that person, you're trying to carve out a life with them. If you're both on the same page with learning how to do this, you can
379 |342 |01:05:18,540 ~-~-> 01:05:30,090 |complement yourselves very well. What will not work, it will not work. If you have your bro. Okay, your buddy, the guy, you go to the clubs with the guys you
380 |343 |01:05:30,090 ~-~-> 01:05:40,590 |hang out with on social media, you will find that that usually will present static. And static happens when two things rub together. And men generally are
381 |344 |01:05:40,590 ~-~-> 01:05:48,900 |abrasive. So there's gonna be static and one's going to want to size up the other one's going to say that they're better or more right about something. And
382 |345 |01:05:48,930 ~-~-> 01:05:59,130 |feelings will get hurt because of that superiority complex that one of them is going to have. And that's unfortunate, but that's a weakness. And then you want
383 |346 |01:05:59,130 ~-~-> 01:06:14,310 |to avoid those things in your trading. So how this fits in this as if you have a condition where the market is more likely to present a frustrating lie, lack of
384 |347 |01:06:14,310 ~-~-> 01:06:25,170 |precision elements, things that are favorable for low resistance, liquidity and signatures, easy trading, let's call it that way. Okay? Easy trading days, are
385 |348 |01:06:25,170 ~-~-> 01:06:33,000 |not going to be found in what I'm showing you in the chart right now. Because it's problematic. And you don't want to invite the opportunity for you to
386 |349 |01:06:33,000 ~-~-> 01:06:45,900 |discover that you should have stayed out. And when you get yourself in that situation, you will feel emotional regret. And you'll will do what you're going
387 |350 |01:06:45,900 ~-~-> 01:06:55,410 |to want to replace that feeling of regret, remorse. Because you didn't stay out, because you wanted to do something to see what would happen. Now you found out
388 |351 |01:06:55,410 ~-~-> 01:07:03,690 |what happened, and you don't like what took place, you had a bad experience. And you're gonna want to fix it real quick, because you're thinking if you fix it,
389 |352 |01:07:05,280 ~-~-> 01:07:12,480 |that is the band aid. And you'll never do that again, when it's not true. Because if you can fix it, you're going to think, well, I'll take the chance
390 |353 |01:07:12,480 ~-~-> 01:07:20,850 |again, because I fix it the last time I'm a better trade and a homeless. So many people, even myself when I was 20, I thought I could do that. And it just made
391 |354 |01:07:20,850 ~-~-> 01:07:30,270 |it worse. So you don't want to invite the opportunity for you to get emotional. See, so you're not getting you don't see me emotional. When I'm in a trade, like
392 |355 |01:07:30,270 ~-~-> 01:07:42,150 |I don't, I really don't give a shit what it's doing. I'm just not monitoring and managing what it is that I believe it shouldn't do. And allowing the time
393 |356 |01:07:42,150 ~-~-> 01:07:52,680 |element to let price do what it might do. The probabilities are there for it to reach to a liquidity or an inefficiency that draw on liquidity. I don't know
394 |357 |01:07:52,800 ~-~-> 01:08:02,070 |with 100% surety that it's going to do that because if I did, I wouldn't use a stop loss. And I would go full margin every time. But because there is a hand in
395 |358 |01:08:02,070 ~-~-> 01:08:13,110 |this world that manipulates and will disrupt things that are in modes of continuity. You have to preserve yourself with the only shield you have, which
396 |359 |01:08:13,110 ~-~-> 01:08:24,300 |is risk and money management. So when you get into these situations, and you trade and you force something to occur, and try to make a trade happen, because
397 |360 |01:08:24,480 ~-~-> 01:08:32,850 |you want to see where you measure up with someone with three decades of experience, then you find out you should have done nothing, and should have
398 |361 |01:08:32,850 ~-~-> 01:08:43,110 |listened to the old man. Now you're in that position where you're damned if you do, and you're damned if you don't, because if you sit still, you're still going
399 |362 |01:08:43,110 ~-~-> 01:08:50,100 |to sit still and regret. But if you sit still, for a long enough time, you're going to try to fix the problem that you created for yourself and trade again,
400 |363 |01:08:50,670 ~-~-> 01:08:59,220 |in conditions that's most likely not going to favor you being profitable, or overcoming the drawdown. And you'll do what you'll increase your lot sizes
401 |364 |01:08:59,220 ~-~-> 01:09:08,760 |because you're thinking, okay, the markets not moving that much. So I have to do a larger tray position, and I won't need that much of a move to get myself
402 |365 |01:09:08,790 ~-~-> 01:09:20,520 |fixed, then it doesn't work like that, does it? Keep blown out and blown out blown out? That's a classic loser cycle. I know that I did that when I was 20
403 |366 |01:09:20,520 ~-~-> 01:09:32,640 |years old. And I'm trying to teach you all of you how to avoid that. It's a simple process. If you can read if you can recognize and identify the moment
404 |367 |01:09:32,640 ~-~-> 01:09:47,820 |where things are highly unlikely. You stop and that means you put the pause button on trading even when you're in drawdown. Remove yourself from risk, come
405 |368 |01:09:47,820 ~-~-> 01:09:58,710 |back another day. You have to do that. Because if you don't do your broker is not going to do it for you. I can't do it for you and your spouse or your
406 |369 |01:09:58,710 ~-~-> 01:10:08,370 |partner They're likely not to be able to do it either. So you want to make sure that you're not inviting yourself into conditions, that's going to cause you to
407 |370 |01:10:08,370 ~-~-> 01:10:22,920 |be emotional, erratic in your decision making gamblers. You don't want the gambler driving the car, the gambler is going to say how many times he can go
408 |371 |01:10:22,920 ~-~-> 01:10:30,630 |over the yellow line, and still not getting an accident. He wants to see how fast he can go before he gets a speeding ticket. He wants to see how many drinks
409 |372 |01:10:30,630 ~-~-> 01:10:33,360 |he can drink before he crashes.
410 |373 |01:10:37,470 ~-~-> 01:10:52,320 |That's the, that's the risk taker that you don't want. running your business. The trader that defends the business from the gambler in you and listens to the
411 |374 |01:10:52,320 ~-~-> 01:11:07,230 |wisdom and guidance of the analyst in you. That's, that's who you are, most times, as a trader, you're always fighting to keep that balance point between
412 |375 |01:11:07,650 ~-~-> 01:11:17,700 |not wanting to be the gambler, the reckless individual, the risk taker, the over leveraging the more frequent trader than they should have been. And listening to
413 |376 |01:11:17,700 ~-~-> 01:11:28,200 |the sound logic that comes from the utmost the model. Once you know your model, that's the analyst in you, you refer back to okay, what would the analysts have
414 |377 |01:11:28,200 ~-~-> 01:11:37,380 |me do? Well, what's your model? Say? What's the rules? Don't trade in these conditions? Okay. I'm not trading. Not. I'm not trading. But the game says, but
415 |378 |01:11:37,380 ~-~-> 01:11:51,270 |listen, look at this. No, you turn the charts off and you go do something else. You deny the gambler, any opportunity to start the car. Because the gambler is
416 |379 |01:11:51,270 ~-~-> 01:12:10,380 |drunk. They're drunk on chasing and clout. Attention, a feel good a dopamine hit of being right? The Gambler exists to be right. The trader doesn't need to be
417 |380 |01:12:10,380 ~-~-> 01:12:24,000 |right. The trader is just focusing on profitability and managing risk. The analyst is just following rules. It's completely devoid of any emotion. It's not
418 |381 |01:12:24,120 ~-~-> 01:12:36,660 |trying to prove anything. It has nothing to prove. It's a new competition. It doesn't care ultimately, who's doing the executions, or lack thereof. It's the
419 |382 |01:12:36,660 ~-~-> 01:12:53,610 |logic the model itself. The trader has to manage and wrestle the gambler which is emotional and psychological tug of war you're made up of three people an
420 |383 |01:12:53,610 ~-~-> 01:13:03,810 |analyst your model, if you don't have a model, then there's no analyst if there's no analyst What are you a trader that Gamble's and you wonder why you're
421 |384 |01:13:03,810 ~-~-> 01:13:20,040 |struggling? You wonder why you're losing on live streams. You're letting the gambler compensate for image, you want image to build you up any? Stop trying to
422 |385 |01:13:20,040 ~-~-> 01:13:32,640 |impress everybody. Just simply follow sound logic. And when it ain't right to stop, you'll do far, much more damage if you continue to trade like that, versus
423 |386 |01:13:32,640 ~-~-> 01:13:41,040 |just using sound logic saying okay, I keep doing the same things over and over and over again. And I keep losing. And you're compounding that pain and
424 |387 |01:13:41,040 ~-~-> 01:13:59,130 |frustration. If you do it in front of the world that embarrassment that shame, that regret that will fester. And none of that improves a trader it causes more
425 |388 |01:13:59,130 ~-~-> 01:14:10,320 |toxic thinking and toxic thinking creates an opportunity to do what more armwrestling more Olympic feats and you're making trading harder than it has to
426 |389 |01:14:10,320 ~-~-> 01:14:22,770 |be by inviting those very conditions. And you're doing it in conditions in the marketplace that are not highly favorable for really fast, easy runs. It's
427 |390 |01:14:22,770 ~-~-> 01:14:35,700 |choppy right now. And an experienced trader that's been around profitably knows that someone that is hit and miss success doesn't see it doesn't recognize it.
428 |391 |01:14:35,940 ~-~-> 01:14:43,590 |Can't even understand what's going on until afterwards and then regret remorse, emotional damage
429 |392 |01:14:50,670 ~-~-> 01:15:05,610 |so there's no shame in saying I don't know what to do right now. So I have to wait for more information. There About, I told you before, this is war, when you
430 |393 |01:15:05,610 ~-~-> 01:15:21,720 |turn those charts on, you're ready to do battle. If you don't look at it like that, because it's not a video game. It's not, it is your livelihood and other
431 |394 |01:15:21,720 ~-~-> 01:15:38,730 |people's livelihood. That's not a fucking video game. Okay, you can lose your entire financial condition. If you let yourself get reckless you have to be
432 |395 |01:15:38,730 ~-~-> 01:15:48,210 |sober in your decision making while you're doing something while you're not doing something. And if the market is highly unfavorable, and I have no shame
433 |396 |01:15:48,210 ~-~-> 01:15:59,190 |telling you, I'm, I believe I'm pretty good. And I don't feel any anxiety, saying right now, I don't know what to do next. So therefore, I'm going to sit
434 |397 |01:15:59,190 ~-~-> 01:16:10,470 |still. You never hear these other people out there that are claiming to be smart, or teachers or mentors or gurus or whatever. You never hear them
435 |398 |01:16:10,500 ~-~-> 01:16:21,210 |articulate why they don't know how to find something. Next, they are constantly trying to put something in front of someone saying, here's the next move.
436 |399 |01:16:23,760 ~-~-> 01:16:35,520 |There's never, there's never a time when they have a lack of opinion or analysis, they always have something they're trying to do. When someone that
437 |400 |01:16:35,520 ~-~-> 01:16:45,180 |knows how to trade has traded profitably, and has been consistently doing it for decades, or a number of years, they're not going to talk like that. They're not
438 |401 |01:16:45,180 ~-~-> 01:16:55,350 |going to try to communicate to the masses that they can always go and do something all the time. That's the problem with social media, it makes you think
439 |402 |01:16:56,430 ~-~-> 01:17:09,060 |that's the best thing for you to be doing for your audience or your student base or whatever. The Gambler is running the show, you don't want that. You want the
440 |403 |01:17:09,060 ~-~-> 01:17:23,520 |trader running the show. And the trader has the responsibility of running the business where the gambler is just wanting to test drive daddy's new sports car,
441 |404 |01:17:24,390 ~-~-> 01:17:42,060 |when he's outside the house, the analyst it's just the logic. The the trader, respects the wisdom that comes from the analyst or the model, the gambler
442 |405 |01:17:42,060 ~-~-> 01:17:51,690 |doesn't respect it. The Gambler thinks that they can operate outside the parameters that the model or the analyst would place on the trading business
443 |406 |01:17:51,690 ~-~-> 01:17:59,370 |that you're running, and feel like they can get away with it. And what happens if it's right, they can make a whole lot more money, if you just break the rules
444 |407 |01:17:59,370 ~-~-> 01:18:09,420 |and over, leverage them by more contracts or sell more contracts. And I have a couple more minutes left in today. Let me just go one more time. That's a
445 |408 |01:18:09,420 ~-~-> 01:18:22,230 |characteristic of someone that's not consistently profitable. I have seen that so many times over the last 26 years. teaching folks that have that same
446 |409 |01:18:22,230 ~-~-> 01:18:37,020 |Hallmark example of lack of self control. And that is a heart I can't teach it. That's something you have to you have to forge that on your own. And the only
447 |410 |01:18:37,020 ~-~-> 01:18:52,770 |way I've ever seen it happen was pain and loss. And usually, people with substance abuse problems are so numbed by either alcohol or drugs. They can't
448 |411 |01:18:52,770 ~-~-> 01:19:02,550 |see what they're doing to themselves. In in their trading, they self destruct continuously. And they mask it. They hide it and they put band aids and masks
449 |412 |01:19:02,550 ~-~-> 01:19:12,120 |on. So that way, they can't ever really see it. And they hide it from anyone else. But you can't hide it from someone that can see what it is. I've seen it a
450 |413 |01:19:13,650 ~-~-> 01:19:25,020 |lot, lots of individuals out there and social media, whether they're on YouTube, or Twitter or Instagram, whatever it is Facebook, those characteristics shine
451 |414 |01:19:25,050 ~-~-> 01:19:35,400 |through any mask. Any attempt to hide it is not successful. You won't be successful in hiding in either. So Why invite those opportunities, in short, and
452 |415 |01:19:35,400 ~-~-> 01:19:48,570 |in closing, we really are closing. When times are like this, when I'm telling you from the analyst perspective, there's no high probability but if I say I
453 |416 |01:19:48,570 ~-~-> 01:19:59,160 |have to decide something for you to study, don't take that as an invitation. Say okay, ICTs gave me the code code word. We're going short. That's not what I
454 |417 |01:19:59,160 ~-~-> 01:20:08,340 |said. I'm saying just study it, but don't have any interest in pushing a button. Because I'm not going to be pushing a button, I'm not going to come back to you,
455 |418 |01:20:08,640 ~-~-> 01:20:14,730 |during the London session, I'm not going to come to you in the morning, say, hey, you need to dose and show you what I did, I'm going to be physically away
456 |419 |01:20:14,730 ~-~-> 01:20:26,160 |from the charts. That's how I manage myself. That's what I needed to learn when I was 20 years old. Because I felt like I was better than I was when I wasn't
457 |420 |01:20:26,370 ~-~-> 01:20:39,270 |really good yet. I wouldn't be able to admit that back then. But knowing what I knew now, who I am and what my skill set is, now, I didn't know anything when I
458 |421 |01:20:39,270 ~-~-> 01:20:51,060 |was 20. Even when I started making money, I didn't know shit. So it's imperative that you identify these times. And if I'm telling you, I don't have a high
459 |422 |01:20:51,060 ~-~-> 01:21:03,720 |probability condition right now, use that, adopt that as your experience right now. And just submit to that, I promise you, if you do this, this year, the
460 |423 |01:21:03,720 ~-~-> 01:21:12,090 |times that I do it, and I'm gonna explain why. And hopefully, I've communicated clear enough tonight as to why the charts not communicating it to me in terms of
461 |424 |01:21:12,630 ~-~-> 01:21:25,380 |a very high probability condition. So since it's doing that, and it's removing the opportunity for high probability, then I have to communicate that to you as
462 |425 |01:21:25,380 ~-~-> 01:21:37,140 |a student, otherwise, I'm not a good mentor. And I'm inviting you to make your own decisions in quicksand. And what's going to happen is, you're going to fall
463 |426 |01:21:37,140 ~-~-> 01:21:44,160 |into that quicksand, tonight or tomorrow, and you're going to get yourself stuck in and what are you gonna do, you're gonna panic, and you're start moving around
464 |427 |01:21:44,160 ~-~-> 01:21:56,610 |a lot more. And in quicksand, the more you move around, the faster you sink. So I'm telling you don't go near there saying, do something else. I promise you,
465 |428 |01:21:56,610 ~-~-> 01:22:07,770 |the market will be there. Tomorrow afternoon. It'll be there on Thursday, you know, it'll be there Friday, there's plenty of opportunities. Plenty. But you
466 |429 |01:22:07,770 ~-~-> 01:22:19,740 |have to learn this skill set, because this is the one this one right here starts the whole drawdown blown account. Because you're forcing something in conditions
467 |430 |01:22:20,160 ~-~-> 01:22:33,030 |that are not conducive for high probability. Hopefully, this was insightful to you, hopefully, I was able to communicate something that was beneficial to you.
468 |431 |01:22:33,030 ~-~-> 01:22:43,560 |And in your development, I promise you that a lecture like this doesn't have the same impact on a new student than that of someone that has gone through it. And
469 |432 |01:22:43,560 ~-~-> 01:22:50,190 |he can recognize, I wish I would have heard that when I first started. But it's unfortunate when people are new. They don't appreciate these types of lectures
470 |433 |01:22:50,190 ~-~-> 01:22:58,320 |or discussions because they don't know having frame of reference. They don't they don't know. And they think they're going to be the exception. And as good
471 |434 |01:22:58,320 ~-~-> 01:23:07,860 |as I am today. Yes, I thought I was the exception. When I was 20. And I was not the exception, I was the poster child for failing, okay, I blew account, and
472 |435 |01:23:07,860 ~-~-> 01:23:17,700 |blew account and blow account. And I didn't care about it. I didn't, I didn't feel enough pain by blowing the accounts. When I was 20. I had to go through a
473 |436 |01:23:17,700 ~-~-> 01:23:27,390 |series of those things. Until I got to the point where I was so frustrated, I had to take away every part of trading for a while. And for like four or five,
474 |437 |01:23:27,420 ~-~-> 01:23:35,700 |maybe even six months almost. I didn't do anything with it. I contemplated quitting. At the time, I called it quitting. But I was just stopping until I
475 |438 |01:23:35,700 ~-~-> 01:23:43,380 |figured out a way that I can raise more money to fund another account. So I really wasn't quitting, I was frustrated that I didn't have a way of making more
476 |439 |01:23:43,380 ~-~-> 01:23:53,940 |money to get the money into an account again. So anyway, I've droned on enough. I've communicate what I wanted to communicate tonight. And I want you to know
477 |440 |01:23:53,940 ~-~-> 01:24:05,970 |that I'm doing my best to guide you, like I would have been wanting someone to guide me, I know what I wanted to have back then. And I know what would have
478 |441 |01:24:05,970 ~-~-> 01:24:17,040 |benefited me the most from a mentor. And I'm talking to myself in this discussion. I'm not thinking of my children. I'm not thinking of any one
479 |442 |01:24:17,070 ~-~-> 01:24:23,820 |particular here. But I'm referring to my younger self, as I've talked to you tonight.
480 |443 |01:24:25,170 ~-~-> 01:24:35,490 |And if I could go back in time and talk to myself. These are the types of lessons and grab him by the lapels and shake my goal and say, Look, this is
481 |444 |01:24:35,490 ~-~-> 01:24:41,970 |where you're going to blow your account. This is what you're going to not see. You're not going to recognize it. And when you get in there and you do
482 |445 |01:24:41,970 ~-~-> 01:24:49,650 |something, you're going to get a case of the ass and get mad and try to fix it real fast. And that's going to compound the problem and you're gonna start
483 |446 |01:24:49,650 ~-~-> 01:25:01,410 |hemorrhaging money, and you're not going to realize what you're doing is stupid. Like you're literally throwing good money after bad and Even though that it's
484 |447 |01:25:01,410 ~-~-> 01:25:13,560 |commendable that you don't fear it, it's lunacy that you don't. Because it's irresponsibility, it's lack of discipline, it's lack of control. And you need to
485 |448 |01:25:13,560 ~-~-> 01:25:27,390 |be able to wrangle yourself in and say, okay, stop, stop. There's other days where this can be made back rather easy. You don't want to dig yourself into a
486 |449 |01:25:27,390 ~-~-> 01:25:36,300 |pit that you can't come back out of. You don't want to bring emotional damage to your decision making because you're going to be thinking about what you did
487 |450 |01:25:36,300 ~-~-> 01:25:48,030 |wrong. You dusted another profitable day, you dusted another account, you dusted a whole month or a week's worth of progress, doing something that you should
488 |451 |01:25:48,030 ~-~-> 01:26:00,720 |have known better not to do. And it all starts when these environments right here right now in trading competitions, and contests and social media arm
489 |452 |01:26:00,720 ~-~-> 01:26:07,620 |wrestling matches all over the world right now. People are trying some of them are in secret, working your ass off and are going to try to pop out later on.
490 |453 |01:26:10,050 ~-~-> 01:26:22,500 |But you're all trying to work too hard in conditions that are not favorable. And when they loosen up in the market becomes more favorable. We me, I will be doing
491 |454 |01:26:22,500 ~-~-> 01:26:32,490 |stunning shit in the marketplace. I'm going to show you moves you've never seen before. I'm going to show you equity returns that you've never seen before. But
492 |455 |01:26:32,490 ~-~-> 01:26:43,740 |you can't do that in this type of environment. It's stagnant, it's choppy, it's it's not moving, which is what you need when you really want to parlay accounts
493 |456 |01:26:43,740 ~-~-> 01:26:54,360 |out. Now you're looking at me doing this and thinking man, I could just do that this is nothing. This is nothing. This is me working inside small ranges and
494 |457 |01:26:54,540 ~-~-> 01:27:04,560 |building what I can within what the markets giving me when these ranges start opening up and they're large. I'm gonna be in there taking 85 90% daily range we
495 |458 |01:27:04,560 ~-~-> 01:27:14,640 |won't be doing now 20 Handle is really doing several 100 moves because they're coming. We'll have them and I'll be in them running the whole fucking thing from
496 |459 |01:27:14,640 ~-~-> 01:27:22,950 |beginning to end. pyramiding and pyramid and pyramid and parent meeting. And there's going to be a person on any social media venue going to come close what
497 |460 |01:27:22,950 ~-~-> 01:27:31,470 |I'm doing this year. So net and until next time. Be safe.