003-ict-tw-spaces-20230112-January-2023-CPI-commentary...
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-01-15 18:14
Outline
00:20 - Why I don’t trade ahead of CPI release.
03:12 - What’s up with the US Dollar?
06:55 - What would be a good level to target for the US 500?
12:48 - Wick on the weekly chart.
17:20 - Closing the gap on 4018.
22:01 - Stop loss doesn’t protect you -.
28:45 - What do I do if the US 500 drops below 3954 for US 500?
31:51 - Time is the first element in price-delivery -.
38:34 - Looking for a run above 4020 candle.
44:31 - What are you looking for in this candle?
49:09 - The candle at 850 is the fair value now.
53:42 - Near term bullishness vs. near term bearish.
59:49 - What is the smallest threshold objective you need to concern yourself with if you’re brand new?
01:06:53 - What are you looking for in this trade?
01:09:20 - Looking at the energy of the candle.
01:15:31 - How to use the candle as a short-term trend line.
01:20:18 - What to do if the candle drops below the low.
01:26:19 - What is the process of being in a trade? -.
01:33:05 - What would you do if you had 90% off on your trade?
01:39:42 - Everything that I do is perfectly calculated, there’s a measurement behind everything I do.
01:47:36 - You go through the process that’s boring -.
01:50:26 - If you don’t have that book, you should get it.
01:57:27 - The reality check that you need to have -.
02:05:46 - What you don’t understand -.
02:13:32 - If anybody tells you they can time the market and trade with intraday charts, run away from them.
02:19:58 - It doesn’t matter if you believe what you’re learning is real or not -.
02:26:47 - You have to show up if you skip a day.
Transcription
| 1 | 00:00:20,490 --> 00:00:31,200 | ICT: Good morning, folks. Not sure what was going on here, but every time I tried to use the previous length to start the stream, or Twitter spaces called |
| 2 | 00:00:31,200 --> 00:00:43,110 | what it is, the Twitter would just stop working and collapse on these other, restart my phone and had to start a new Twitter space thing. So I'm not sure if |
| 3 | 00:00:43,110 --> 00:00:58,530 | that helps any of you by tweeting the new one, but it is what it is. So playwrights doing well, today we are about to watch some serious carnage. And |
| 4 | 00:00:58,530 --> 00:01:08,670 | this is a market driver that I do not trade ahead of, I don't put a trade on, you're not going to get a dose. Before CPI release, I haven't done anything this |
| 5 | 00:01:08,670 --> 00:01:23,430 | morning. Nothing, I'm just sitting here waiting. And I'm opening my charts up for the first time to get a feel for what may or may not do here. Not that I'm |
| 6 | 00:01:23,850 --> 00:01:32,670 | claiming to be accurate, because you can see the two times I've did CPI and cosine where I thought I was gonna go right before it releases, I was dead |
| 7 | 00:01:32,670 --> 00:01:43,710 | wrong. So that communicates perfectly, why I don't trade ahead of it. And that's why I teach my students not to do it either. I've never figured it out. And I'm |
| 8 | 00:01:43,770 --> 00:01:53,250 | old enough to know that I don't care to now I can engage after it starts. Alright, so I'm looking at the ES. And give me a second here, I'm gonna try to |
| 9 | 00:01:53,250 --> 00:02:06,030 | pull up the equivalent with the US 500. And get that out of the way. Because while we're going, probably won't be doing much of that, and I apologize. But |
| 10 | 00:02:06,030 --> 00:02:39,300 | it's very easy for me to get distracted Alright, so one of the levels I've been watching is on es marks delivering 2023 the 4018 level, that's one I've been |
| 11 | 00:02:39,300 --> 00:02:51,300 | watching. And if they would have gotten to it. rate at the time of CPI, then that would be really, in my opinion, much more interesting. I don't know if it's |
| 12 | 00:02:51,300 --> 00:03:00,720 | going to explode higher. I don't know if it's going to crash hard. I don't ever claim to know that I just know that I don't want to be in there because it will |
| 13 | 00:03:00,720 --> 00:03:10,410 | be one sided immediate, like a lightning bolt. And I don't want to get hit by that I don't want by any of you to suffer that either. |
| 14 | 00:03:12,539 --> 00:03:17,999 | So on it's going to the charts real quick. See what's up with that |
| 15 | 00:03:20,340 --> 00:03:24,420 | there's been a lot of lift since Tuesday |
| 16 | 00:03:32,729 --> 00:03:33,659 | just comparing |
| 17 | 00:03:37,710 --> 00:03:45,990 | you us 502. Yes, that we're gonna get my bearings. And that way you'll have levels found interesting at the moment. |
| 18 | 00:03:59,340 --> 00:04:14,040 | Is clean as that area is on your hourly chart for ES and on us 500. Us 500 sellside liquidity around 30 100. |
| 19 | 00:04:15,360 --> 00:04:16,230 | And |
| 20 | 00:04:18,149 --> 00:04:29,579 | we'll just say 300. Across the board. That's a huge pocket of liquidity down here. Like it's huge, like that's an enormous large funds have their trade stops |
| 21 | 00:04:29,639 --> 00:04:41,309 | below their cell stops. But the way you're pressing up into this keeps digging higher and higher and higher. You know, I hate to say it, and I'm perfectly |
| 22 | 00:04:41,309 --> 00:04:55,139 | comfortable being wrong. To me, it makes no sense to vault higher from where we are. It could be I mean, I'm not going to lose anything obviously. I'm not I |
| 23 | 00:04:55,139 --> 00:05:04,859 | don't have anything in the race here. But to me it would make more sense for them to Do reprice it lower aggressively, even if they're gonna send a higher |
| 24 | 00:05:04,859 --> 00:05:20,999 | and longer term. Like they can send that lower on CPI. Mess up all the not that I think it's going to be 200? Or what would that be 170 handles. There'll be a |
| 25 | 00:05:20,999 --> 00:05:38,039 | lot. So what I do is I wait, I'm going to look for, obviously, the initial 30 minutes or so, see what they leave in the wake of that aggressive one sidedness. |
| 26 | 00:05:38,039 --> 00:05:45,869 | The CPI usually is every single month, you need to be aware of what's on the economic calendar and are certain things certain market drivers that we do not |
| 27 | 00:05:45,869 --> 00:06:01,139 | stay in front of rate announcements, and CPI and non farm payrolls, the top three questions regarding like ppi, I don't have a fear of ppi. I've traded |
| 28 | 00:06:01,139 --> 00:06:14,159 | ahead of that one. But this one here, this one's dangerous, like it's very, very dangerous. So what we're looking for him, what I'm specifically looking for is |
| 29 | 00:06:14,519 --> 00:06:26,969 | the market hit that 830 In the news comes out and CPI number gets released to the marketplace. The markets gonna go one sided. All in one quick one, or two |
| 30 | 00:06:26,969 --> 00:06:35,039 | minute candle, you're gonna see the bulk of that move. And I want you to really think about what you would be feeling if you were in that move, and you're on |
| 31 | 00:06:35,039 --> 00:06:47,189 | the wrong side. It's so easy to listen to these Yahoo's on YouTube and Instagram and such on Twitter saying, yeah, here's the, here's the trade I took and CPI |
| 32 | 00:06:47,189 --> 00:06:54,329 | had it right, come on out. If you felt that strongly, you would be out here publicly calm beforehand with your staff and everything else. No one in their |
| 33 | 00:06:54,329 --> 00:07:01,259 | right mind would do that. Unless you're playing in a demo, which you know, we execute and demo but even in a demo, I'm not going to try to do that here. |
| 34 | 00:07:08,310 --> 00:07:19,830 | So typically, CPI in the last few times that we've seen it, it's been anywhere between 75 and 100 handles, like instantaneously it's repricing so I'm looking |
| 35 | 00:07:19,830 --> 00:07:29,730 | at how that would translate 50 to 100 handles one sidedness, what would they reach for and that's kind of like what I'm scanning through the charts for and I |
| 36 | 00:07:29,730 --> 00:07:48,630 | don't have a real clear idea of what they might want to do in regards to that I mean if they push it higher and just really run against that three highs that |
| 37 | 00:07:48,630 --> 00:07:58,200 | was formed on the daily chart for ES and you can see the same thing in the US 500 so that my comments are general enough that they can be applied to both. |
| 38 | 00:08:13,350 --> 00:08:15,090 | Wow 4100 has |
| 39 | 00:08:17,310 --> 00:08:51,720 | a small city see if I can get this I have a hell of a snack train you doing this? |
| 40 | 00:09:20,220 --> 00:09:33,000 | Alright, one of the levels if they get wild with this and send it higher, take a look at your one hour candle 60 minutes on December 13 2022. This is for ES |
| 41 | 00:09:33,540 --> 00:09:47,340 | okay, there's a bit of a gap right in there and it's just above the high on December 14. This is your hourly chart for ES and let's see if I can find the |
| 42 | 00:09:47,340 --> 00:09:59,520 | equivalent for you. It's pretty much it's the same thing you would see it on us 500 Same thing for that one single candle pass through it with a down close |
| 43 | 00:09:59,520 --> 00:10:15,450 | candle have on your hourly. That's December 13. It's a Tuesday of 2020. That is just above the high formed on Wednesday the 14th of December 2022. Okay, so note |
| 44 | 00:10:15,450 --> 00:10:36,540 | that level. So put your trendline array, or horizontal line on us five, I'm sorry, us 500 I have on my 60 minute chart 405 3.9 I have that noted. And on es |
| 45 | 00:10:36,540 --> 00:11:04,590 | I have 409 0.75 for ES and the fair value got low is 409 5.50. And the highest fair value got one es 60 minute chart again 411 1.25 So, there's your favorite, |
| 46 | 00:11:04,620 --> 00:11:13,110 | there's a three levels, I think are things to watch this morning for upside. I don't know if it's gonna go up here. So please don't take this as I'm telling |
| 47 | 00:11:13,110 --> 00:11:20,880 | you, it's gonna go up. I don't I don't know, I don't have a trade in. I'm not putting a trade on. I'm waiting. Okay, but I'm just giving you levels that I |
| 48 | 00:11:20,880 --> 00:11:29,100 | believe are going to be likely targets if they really send this thing higher. Now on the downside |
| 49 | 00:11:34,950 --> 00:11:35,970 | I don't know. |
| 50 | 00:11:38,160 --> 00:11:47,640 | As much as I don't want to subscribe to the fact that like, continuously go up. I don't see it down here. It could it could obviously this collapsing, you do. |
| 51 | 00:11:49,980 --> 00:12:07,020 | Enormous drop, but I have nothing that I can call on. I mean the 3900 has a low on Tuesdays low at eight o'clock in the morning to find that also on us 500 But |
| 52 | 00:12:08,880 --> 00:12:23,220 | I'm just gonna I'm gonna cosign it and just say I think they're gonna push it to 4090 then if it can get overzealous with it 4111 point yes, and in the levels |
| 53 | 00:12:23,220 --> 00:12:46,950 | respectively on us 500 would be 4040 53.9 to 40 58.2 with a 47 6.1. So those levels for us 500. Now if it collapses and goes up to the direction 100 handles |
| 54 | 00:12:46,950 --> 00:13:01,860 | are better. No harm, no foul. Now we just hit her for 4018. Now if I was going to sync it, I would do it from that level because it's done the 4018 You're |
| 55 | 00:13:02,100 --> 00:13:07,710 | probably asking what that is here we go that reaction |
| 56 | 00:13:16,320 --> 00:13:25,920 | you're probably wondering what that 4018 level is, it's a wick on the weekly chart, half of the wick just want to watch this a little bit longer here |
| 57 | 00:13:46,590 --> 00:13:55,830 | their sell side right at the low on Wednesday. And we're all still focused on an hourly chart here on Wednesdays low at one o'clock. |
| 58 | 00:14:15,720 --> 00:14:24,750 | Now there's a gap if you dropped down to your 15 minute timeframe a gap has been produced and we're going right back up into it now. |
| 59 | 00:14:35,580 --> 00:14:38,520 | An actual gap where there was no no price |
| 60 | 00:14:38,520 --> 00:14:39,390 | data printed. |
| 61 | 00:14:57,330 --> 00:15:09,030 | So far it looks like they'll want to take 3900 The reaction at 4018 I was interested in they went right up into it and you want to study see if it wants |
| 62 | 00:15:09,030 --> 00:15:26,280 | to rip down into the low at 145 in time and then give me this is time 01 colon 45 That's a time on Wednesday January 11. Note that low their suicide rate below |
| 63 | 00:15:26,280 --> 00:15:26,610 | that |
| 64 | 00:16:00,570 --> 00:16:08,040 | not that CPI is ever easy for me clearly it's not easy for anybody but this one's a little |
| 65 | 00:16:10,559 --> 00:16:11,519 | bit more trickier |
| 66 | 00:16:17,309 --> 00:16:18,269 | us 500 |
| 67 | 00:16:19,650 --> 00:16:20,640 | Severe gap |
| 68 | 00:16:27,210 --> 00:16:41,550 | notes on es the low at 3988 and a half 3988 decimal point five zero and that level has not been traded back to there's a hard gap so far it's only gone back |
| 69 | 00:16:41,550 --> 00:16:57,660 | up to 398675 So there's something of a small gap remaining so watch and see if it wants to run up into that level it can overlap that go back up into 39 Nine |
| 70 | 00:16:57,660 --> 00:17:06,660 | 3.25 Anything more than that might challenge the height 4018 or there abouts. |
| 71 | 00:17:20,040 --> 00:17:29,850 | I'm gonna go out to the weekly chart and show you the candle how I derived that 4018 level give me a second here just closing the gap on ES. |
| 72 | 00:18:11,970 --> 00:18:22,260 | Apologize, I said the weekly chart it was on the daily chart. And you can find it on Wednesday, December 14 2022 That down close candle on es you're going to |
| 73 | 00:18:22,260 --> 00:18:40,950 | measure the closing price of the low split that range and half of the wick and you'll get to that 4018 level back into the five minute chart and we've |
| 74 | 00:18:40,950 --> 00:18:54,630 | completely revisited the break lower so turn your attention to running above that 4018 High there's no other reason for it to have gone to where we are right |
| 75 | 00:18:54,630 --> 00:19:02,520 | now. This feels like they dropped it down and then likely to fade it. |
| 76 | 00:19:17,490 --> 00:19:20,100 | Us 500 hits closing this gap entirely |
| 77 | 00:19:25,260 --> 00:19:36,570 | It doesn't it doesn't feel like a typical Non Farm Payroll or FOMC with the first reactions like the fake move and then you have the opposite direction. |
| 78 | 00:19:36,780 --> 00:19:50,040 | That's generally not what you get with CPI. But right now looking at it, I'm kind of getting that vibe. Meaning in plain English, that the drop from 4018 |
| 79 | 00:19:50,100 --> 00:20:02,430 | down into almost 13 and a half. That may have been the fake move of the day. And they'll probably want to just keep it repricing higher, I don't know that yet. |
| 80 | 00:20:02,520 --> 00:20:14,280 | And it's still too early, it's literally only been six minutes since CPI hit the market. And the role is minimum 30 minutes. So I'm saying wait until equities |
| 81 | 00:20:14,280 --> 00:20:23,760 | open at 930. And if it moves, so what doesn't matter, I mean, you're not trying to put your entire career on the stakes of whether this one individual day or |
| 82 | 00:20:23,760 --> 00:20:35,430 | morning session on CPI data is successful or not. So you don't want to place that much emphasis on one decision, especially on a high rolling game like this. |
| 83 | 00:21:10,500 --> 00:21:20,850 | So this is when I usually look at the market and think to myself, this is where I would have gotten hurt as a younger man. It's very, very hard, it's very, very |
| 84 | 00:21:20,850 --> 00:21:34,200 | hard to pick where this is going to go on the market released like this. And to trust it, you know, where do you place your stop. So that right there |
| 85 | 00:21:34,320 --> 00:21:40,410 | immediately puts me on I can't touch it because I have to have a stoploss you know, not like those individuals see live streaming out there, they'll put |
| 86 | 00:21:40,410 --> 00:21:51,840 | trades on and they will have a stop loss. I mean, to me that's scary. Like that doesn't make any business sense doing that. Because even though the market isn't |
| 87 | 00:21:51,840 --> 00:22:01,530 | likely to create moves like this just occurred here on any other given day, it can like anything can happen any day which is why you have that stop loss. But |
| 88 | 00:22:01,560 --> 00:22:09,330 | even in instances like this, you know stop loss doesn't protect you that can gap right through it in the first traded price becomes where they're gonna execute |
| 89 | 00:22:09,330 --> 00:22:18,270 | your order and that slippage and that can be horrendous on days like this. So you want to avoid it typically when you see |
| 90 | 00:22:19,590 --> 00:22:20,430 | I'm watching this |
| 91 | 00:22:25,740 --> 00:22:39,510 | guy gap on five minute chart 08 colon to five at your time a 25 Okay there's fair pay gap on the five minute chart we've overlapped a little bit |
| 92 | 00:22:45,570 --> 00:22:50,100 | so, your next line for liquidity, you want to have that at |
| 93 | 00:22:58,380 --> 00:23:00,570 | 3954 Even |
| 94 | 00:23:16,710 --> 00:23:38,280 | during I 54 even if it runs that then you would be looking for 39 34.75 sellside liquidity rate below that low anything above anything above 4,007.50 sets the |
| 95 | 00:23:38,280 --> 00:23:59,880 | stage for a run to 40301 |
| 96 | 00:23:59,880 --> 00:24:00,990 | of the US 500 |
| 97 | 00:24:03,180 --> 00:24:07,290 | You should have a line on 39 42.6 |
| 98 | 00:24:23,430 --> 00:24:43,080 | Nothing can take out 3954 and 3934 and three quarters on es I like to level 3927 and a quarter so three nine to 7.25 and I like 390 0.50 That would be my |
| 99 | 00:24:43,950 --> 00:24:52,350 | hypothetical. Not that I'm gonna trade I'm not in a trade and I promise you you will not see a recording. I'm nothing I'm right now I'm just studying just like |
| 100 | 00:24:52,350 --> 00:25:01,830 | you are right now. I'm trying to get a feel for it. Can I get myself on side reading it right now. And so far I'm not I'm not on side, I'm not accurate about |
| 101 | 00:25:01,830 --> 00:25:13,860 | anything right now. So just watch it. And what I'm doing is I'm trying to get a feel for does it does it, show me states of heaviness where it wants to go |
| 102 | 00:25:13,860 --> 00:25:23,280 | lower? If it does, and I'm going to look for logical levels where it would want to go there. But anything above 4000 Now, or 4007, sets the stage for a run the |
| 103 | 00:25:23,280 --> 00:25:35,310 | 4030. And if he gets, if it gets rather, accelerated above 4030, then I would be returning my attention to 4090 and three quarters. And that would be where I |
| 104 | 00:25:35,310 --> 00:25:50,370 | would look for the day are going into tomorrow. So it's a lot of weighing out, which is, unfortunately, what you don't get to see or even experienced, when I'm |
| 105 | 00:25:50,370 --> 00:25:59,010 | doing my setups, and I'm executing. I'm watching these types of things. And that's kind of like one of the commenting on when we're doing our live sessions. |
| 106 | 00:25:59,010 --> 00:26:05,640 | And many of you are going to be frustrated, because it's going to be like, give me a trade, you give me a stop, give me a target, when I'm just going to be |
| 107 | 00:26:05,640 --> 00:26:14,400 | reading price with you over a chart showing you what level should stay where they are, and kind of like walk you through. And I'm trying to do that now with |
| 108 | 00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:27,840 | your chart audibly. And right now, there's nothing to really build on except for a measuring is there an interest by the market wanting to either 3954. For Sale |
| 109 | 00:26:27,840 --> 00:26:40,530 | sign, if it does, then we can trust that it's likely to go down to 3934 and three quarters in how much below that I like 39 27.25. That all changes. That |
| 110 | 00:26:40,530 --> 00:26:53,490 | whole idea changes without me having to be in a trade if it moves to 4007. And what was the high on reason why I'm saying that is the high at 835. That high is |
| 111 | 00:26:53,490 --> 00:27:10,290 | 4007 and a half. So 400 7.501, a five minute chart, you should see that short term high. So if we get above that again, then I'm looking forward to run 24030. |
| 112 | 00:27:10,530 --> 00:27:24,930 | And then I'll be measuring the the speed at which it trades to either 4030 or how it trades to 3950. For speed, and how fast it gets there. Either direction. |
| 113 | 00:27:25,200 --> 00:27:35,220 | That's what I'm looking for. I'm measuring that. I don't care which one it does. I don't give a I don't give a hoot. I'm trying not to cuss. But the long and |
| 114 | 00:27:35,220 --> 00:27:44,190 | short of it is is I'm trying to get a read on what price is likely to do. Now, if you were holding a gun to my head, I believe we're going to take 3954 That's |
| 115 | 00:27:44,190 --> 00:27:52,290 | what I believe right now. So if you want to know what I'm thinking, if there was a way of measuring what do I think is more likely to occur? It's the 3954 level |
| 116 | 00:27:52,320 --> 00:28:07,890 | dropping to 3934 and a quarter, I'm sorry, three quarters, ultimately reaching 239 27 and a quarter. Why that level? Might Michael, why did you come up with |
| 117 | 00:28:07,890 --> 00:28:09,090 | 3927? A quarter? |
| 118 | 00:28:15,900 --> 00:28:34,950 | Right, watch that tie at 4007 and a half. My opinion, there's no reason for it to go back above that unless it wants to go higher. Now what happens when I get |
| 119 | 00:28:35,130 --> 00:28:46,920 | either one of those circumstances? In my charts, like if it goes above 4007 and a half and runs rips right through 4018? What do I do, I dropped down to a one |
| 120 | 00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:58,140 | minute chart. And the same thing would apply for if it drops down below 3954. For es now for the folks in us 500 I apologize. This is why I'm not gonna be |
| 121 | 00:28:58,140 --> 00:29:07,560 | able to do this. efficiently, more doing live streams and such. I'll pull the charts up, I'll draw the lines out. But I'm not gonna be commenting that much on |
| 122 | 00:29:07,560 --> 00:29:13,440 | it because I'm already getting there. They're sitting right next to each other. But I'm getting disoriented, like I did the other day when I was trying to |
| 123 | 00:29:14,340 --> 00:29:23,670 | discuss them both. And so you're gonna be very angry about that, but I'm trying to make the best of my own skill set. I can't be distracted. I don't trade the |
| 124 | 00:29:23,670 --> 00:29:48,360 | US 500 to the high if it goes above for us 500 398 4.26 I'm sorry. 398 4.6 rather, if it goes above that, then it would most likely run to 4000 4005 on us |
| 125 | 00:29:48,360 --> 00:30:00,990 | 500 I don't see that. But I just wanna make sure I come back to that because I noticed I didn't mention it. But the low on us 500. My interest is on Is that |
| 126 | 00:30:00,990 --> 00:30:10,320 | 39 42.4? And where can that go? If it takes that out on the downside, I believe that it could reach |
| 127 | 00:30:11,880 --> 00:30:18,510 | 39 21.6. So that's your US 500 levels. |
| 128 | 00:30:19,830 --> 00:30:24,510 | And that all changes for us 500 If we trade above |
| 129 | 00:30:27,540 --> 00:30:28,980 | 39 84.6 |
| 130 | 00:30:31,080 --> 00:30:42,540 | So, in layman's terms, I believe right now, it's more likely to drop down to take the sell side at 394 than it is to go above 4018. Again, I'm prepared to be |
| 131 | 00:30:42,540 --> 00:30:51,030 | wrong, because I'm not in any trade. But I'm looking for either one of those circumstances to pan out, because then it would give me the direction in which |
| 132 | 00:30:51,030 --> 00:31:05,850 | I'm going to try to look for setups at 930. Nobody gives me my bias what would I do? What would I hunt, you're gonna hear my stomach growling, I apologize, I |
| 133 | 00:31:05,850 --> 00:31:19,590 | fast in the morning, the dropping down to a one minute chart, whichever one of these levels gets taken out. Then I'll watch one market structure and I'll look |
| 134 | 00:31:19,590 --> 00:31:31,380 | for a smaller short term low to be taken out if it's going to be bearish. And then look for a fair value gap or breaker, something to that effect. And then I |
| 135 | 00:31:31,380 --> 00:31:44,220 | would go short, vice versa, if it takes out the 4007 level. I would look for a one minute chart. shift in market structure. In other words, a short term high |
| 136 | 00:31:44,220 --> 00:31:53,370 | deform not as soon as that high is taken out. That's not what I'm doing. I'm waiting. I'm waiting for it to get to 930. Because time is the first element in |
| 137 | 00:31:53,370 --> 00:32:04,890 | price delivery, it's not price. It's time. There's a time for everything to occur. And it all runs on time. someone starts talking to you about how you know |
| 138 | 00:32:04,890 --> 00:32:12,960 | you're going to be trading out rhythmically. And you are not using time based charts. You're not trading algorithmically, okay, you're not because that's the |
| 139 | 00:32:12,960 --> 00:32:21,660 | first element. And I'm not saying things are going up and down because of a chart pattern. It's just that's the measurement. That's why I even use it. I |
| 140 | 00:32:21,660 --> 00:32:30,420 | don't even need the chart. But to communicate what I know, and to make a language that we can learn from me, the chart does the process of showing the |
| 141 | 00:32:30,420 --> 00:32:42,600 | time element. So if you're using range bars, and you know anything like that, you're not going to get to algorithmic output, you're not going to see it, you |
| 142 | 00:32:42,600 --> 00:32:54,600 | will you will not see it, you might come up with a religion thinking that you do and call it a logic or an algorithm. But that's just you know, contrived. |
| 143 | 00:33:02,940 --> 00:33:05,970 | So there has not been a whole lot of movement. |
| 144 | 00:33:12,450 --> 00:33:25,620 | Now, when your ES makes mention of this, when you're es 08 colon four zero, that's time us a short term trendline drag to the right off of the opening price |
| 145 | 00:33:25,650 --> 00:33:41,790 | at that 08 40 level. The opening price on that candle was is 398 8.25. Okay, and the high is three, nine 2.25. That's usually when I draw out levels I'm gonna |
| 146 | 00:33:41,790 --> 00:33:53,130 | watch and see if they are respected. They're like order block theory. And I want to see those levels if they come down and touch it if it kisses it at the top of |
| 147 | 00:33:53,130 --> 00:33:57,090 | the wick and reacts and strongly moves higher. That's a signature I'd like to see. |
| 148 | 00:34:02,850 --> 00:34:10,170 | So far, we've already touched the top of it. And we'll watch to see if that five minute candle expands like it's doing here and watch and see if it doesn't have |
| 149 | 00:34:10,440 --> 00:34:19,230 | that momentum to take us through 400 7.5. |
| 150 | 00:34:21,300 --> 00:34:34,350 | And on us 500 The same candle at 840. That's time 08 colon four zero, a five minute chart. You want to have a horizontal line segment on the opening price. |
| 151 | 00:34:34,950 --> 00:34:46,860 | If you're following along on us 500 396 5.4 or 396 9.3 Both of those levels. I will usually have that on my chart and usually you'll see me highlight the the |
| 152 | 00:34:46,860 --> 00:34:56,040 | wick in the body if it's a small little tiny little wick above. I'm looking for both levels. And I want to see the wick be respecting it majority of time but if |
| 153 | 00:34:56,040 --> 00:35:02,430 | it deviates below that, I will accept the fact that it can come back to that putting price of that down close candle at 840. |
| 154 | 00:35:07,470 --> 00:35:15,630 | If it starts to show signatures of respecting that, then once it starts to move away from it, and we haven't really seen that yet, but if it does, then my eye |
| 155 | 00:35:15,630 --> 00:35:24,240 | goes to the midpoint of the body of that down close candle at 840. That's mean threshold. Once it starts to respect the candle that I see as a potential order |
| 156 | 00:35:24,240 --> 00:35:35,790 | block, I never want to see the middle of that candle be broken, it can trade to it, that's fine. It's preferable that it doesn't do that. So we would prefer to |
| 157 | 00:35:35,790 --> 00:35:45,660 | see these candles right now. I'm going to literally go into just discussion on the ES because I'm looking at the US 500 and I'm no I'm gonna get these levels |
| 158 | 00:35:45,660 --> 00:35:58,590 | called wrong. But I've given you enough here, we're watching for it to see if we can go through the high of the candle at 835. Okay, so I think if we talk like |
| 159 | 00:35:58,590 --> 00:36:12,360 | that, you'll be able to still track me on us 500. I apologize, I'm trying to do the best I can do a lot of us don't have real time data for ES. But I can't, I |
| 160 | 00:36:12,360 --> 00:36:20,400 | can't teach effectively if I'm the instructor looking to other things. Okay, you see how we're expanding, we've already got that five handles right there. |
| 161 | 00:36:28,440 --> 00:36:39,210 | Now all you're looking for is an opportunity to see something like that unfold with a larger draw on liquidity. Okay, for instance, let's just say for the sake |
| 162 | 00:36:39,210 --> 00:36:49,650 | of argument, that we believe that four zero 18 is an upside target from where we are right now. And that down close candle at 840. Okay, as it opens up on the |
| 163 | 00:36:49,650 --> 00:36:58,260 | candle that we're at for five minute basis. So we're still looking at a five minute chart right now. Right now present time we're at 08 colon 50. It's time, |
| 164 | 00:36:58,530 --> 00:37:11,730 | okay. Oh, 850. That time candle. It's already offered what I'm telling you to look for, as your minimum threshold objective for trading, which is, when you go |
| 165 | 00:37:11,730 --> 00:37:18,510 | in, you're trying to learn how to do this, okay, you have to have a realistic target of what, what what's realistic to me, I think anybody going through the |
| 166 | 00:37:18,510 --> 00:37:29,370 | model that I taught on 2022 YouTube channel, in the mentorship ICT you can easily get five handles with that easily. And you can find multiple instances |
| 167 | 00:37:29,370 --> 00:37:37,950 | that throughout the day. So it's very forgiving for someone that isn't precise yet. So allows you to grow into it more. But the scenario will be is if you have |
| 168 | 00:37:37,950 --> 00:37:47,820 | to look for a trade that offers five handles based on what you believe is going to happen in the analysis. So that way, you only need half of the move, you |
| 169 | 00:37:47,820 --> 00:38:01,050 | don't need to go to full target, now we've taken out that high at 835 candle, we've taken out that high at 4007 and a half. That right there would be if it |
| 170 | 00:38:01,050 --> 00:38:10,530 | was not what we're trading right now, which is tape reading, that we're not even pushing any buttons, that would be a partial for me, then then I would roll my |
| 171 | 00:38:10,530 --> 00:38:21,570 | stop just to which would originate below the mean threshold of that down close candle at 840 My stop would roll to the mean threshold of that candle, which |
| 172 | 00:38:21,600 --> 00:38:33,150 | would be approximate I'm gonna just eyeball it, we'll call it 39 83.75 That's where my stop would roll from where it would originate at the low of 39 76.25. |
| 173 | 00:38:34,290 --> 00:38:45,990 | And we would look for a run above 4020 Now which would be the high of your candle at 208 colon to five it's time so 825 candle that high and that would be |
| 174 | 00:38:45,990 --> 00:38:55,530 | the next draw on liquidity. And I would want to see velocity getting to that high and through it reaching into 4030 |
| 175 | 00:39:00,480 --> 00:39:10,740 | monitor trades above 08 colon to five candle or a 25 candle that high you want to have that noted on your chart also like draw a little line segment across it |
| 176 | 00:39:11,490 --> 00:39:14,520 | that would be 401 9.75. |
| 177 | 00:39:21,390 --> 00:39:31,980 | And you want to screen capture all this as I'm discussing it because it'll meet it'll be more meaningful to you later on once the day fulfills its adjourn |
| 178 | 00:39:31,980 --> 00:39:32,250 | agenda |
| 179 | 00:39:45,720 --> 00:39:55,170 | no when I was running up those empty for accounts on Twitter when I had an old old account on Twitter and people still like to say that was done with a rented |
| 180 | 00:39:55,170 --> 00:40:02,880 | and three four server which I don't even know how to do and don't do that and I could swear in accordance They're not like they can, they can't, they can't say |
| 181 | 00:40:02,910 --> 00:40:14,490 | anything when I'm calling it live, when I'm outlining it live, anything that can be seen on a 15 second or 32nd chart can be traded on what I just showed you |
| 182 | 00:40:14,490 --> 00:40:22,980 | here, you have to have the next draw on liquidity. And there's so many intraday movements that will create these opportunities for price to fluctuate and move |
| 183 | 00:40:22,980 --> 00:40:35,580 | from one point to the next. I was running up each trade, putting on four to five pairs, not many of them at 5%. But usually there were 4%, four and a half |
| 184 | 00:40:35,580 --> 00:40:45,810 | percent on each new position. So when I was pyramiding, the trades. That's a lot. So you imagine how many how many times have you seen the pyramid in st in |
| 185 | 00:40:45,810 --> 00:40:55,500 | the same trade a lot. So if each new pyramid position was being scaled in risking it in itself for up to four and a half, averaging percent each time, |
| 186 | 00:40:55,800 --> 00:41:03,390 | over time, how many times have you seen me doing these things very precisely, weeks and months. Now years, for some of you that are in private group. Long |
| 187 | 00:41:03,390 --> 00:41:12,180 | story short, it doesn't take long to build it up and parlay it up. But to someone else on the outside looking at it, it's easy to say, Oh, this is fraud. |
| 188 | 00:41:12,450 --> 00:41:18,780 | It's not fraud. It's just me sitting there, proving a point over and over again, because there's a lot of people out there that will just show you an empty for |
| 189 | 00:41:19,260 --> 00:41:28,590 | list of what they made in our Forex trades, and then show rented cars, and nearby my course and do this and do that. And I was trolling an individual back |
| 190 | 00:41:28,590 --> 00:41:38,460 | then. And doing all that stuff. You can't argue when someone's sitting in front of you, outlining why it should do what it should do, calling it beforehand, and |
| 191 | 00:41:38,460 --> 00:41:47,160 | then executing on the logic working inside of a one minute chart where time doesn't even allow you the benefit of being able to do anything else but that. |
| 192 | 00:41:53,100 --> 00:42:04,710 | So I would want to see this candle here, expand beyond 4018 on ES. So your present candle right now should make a run higher than the high formed at oh |
| 193 | 00:42:04,710 --> 00:42:07,650 | eight, colon to five or 825 candle |
| 194 | 00:42:12,660 --> 00:42:24,570 | I would prefer to see this candle close like it is and then have the candle at it again, we're all still on a five minute chart right now. Yes, you're 850 |
| 195 | 00:42:24,690 --> 00:42:37,530 | Okay, 808 colon 50 timecard time candle that I would prefer to see that be formed as a fair value got seven words, this candle should close, not going any |
| 196 | 00:42:37,530 --> 00:42:48,240 | lower than the glow, it's already formed. Once we got several seconds of left port closes, and I would like to see that gap stay just like it is I wouldn't |
| 197 | 00:42:48,240 --> 00:43:01,140 | want to see it closing. That would act as a breakaway gap in my mind, sending us into 4030. And we'd start looking for a 4050 as a potential upside objective as |
| 198 | 00:43:01,140 --> 00:43:01,410 | well. |
| 199 | 00:43:07,800 --> 00:43:22,710 | So far, the high hasn't been taken on at 825 candle. But we do have our gap in place. So you want to draw a rectangle from the high of the candle at 845 When |
| 200 | 00:43:22,710 --> 00:43:33,600 | your five minute chart and draw up to the low of the 855 time candle, and then drag that rectangle to the right. All the way to say 10 o'clock in the morning. |
| 201 | 00:43:34,230 --> 00:43:45,750 | Not that I think it would require that much time but just to prevent a need for me to make any more mention of it. And I would like to see that stay open. Now |
| 202 | 00:43:45,750 --> 00:43:58,710 | can it revisit the low of 850 fives candle on the five minute chart of ES or even your us five on a chart? It can do that. And if it just dips below it, I |
| 203 | 00:43:58,710 --> 00:44:07,680 | would expect it just to go below the low a little bit. And then ramp higher, above 4020. That would be my expectation if it was to do that. And that would be |
| 204 | 00:44:07,680 --> 00:44:16,050 | my institutional order flow entry drill. That would be an entry model based with what I'm seeing here and what I'm thinking is likely to occur and please do not |
| 205 | 00:44:16,050 --> 00:44:24,480 | take this as a trade. You shouldn't be in something right now. And I know some of you probably are not listening. And if I'm dead wrong, you got it. Okay, you |
| 206 | 00:44:24,480 --> 00:44:32,850 | got what you deserve. Because I've already warned you because this is me just reading it real time with you. I am not in a trade. I'm not in anything. Okay, |
| 207 | 00:44:33,060 --> 00:44:43,080 | I'm just reading it aloud as we're watching it paint on a live stream on YouTube, there's gonna be a slight delay. I don't think there's that much of a |
| 208 | 00:44:43,080 --> 00:44:48,930 | delay as much with this versus what YouTube will be. So you're literally watching it live |
| 209 | 00:44:55,080 --> 00:44:58,500 | so I want to see this pop through, make a higher high on the day |
| 210 | 00:45:13,650 --> 00:45:22,020 | On cleaner days, it'd be more entertaining for me to call the market because you'll see a lot more reaction more instant gratification to what we're looking |
| 211 | 00:45:22,020 --> 00:45:31,500 | for as price signatures. But right here this is this is one of the most difficult elements to be calling it live and which are even engaging. So if |
| 212 | 00:45:31,500 --> 00:45:36,840 | you're looking at this and not understanding much at all, that's normal, because I'm still trying to get a better read on it. |
| 213 | 00:46:15,450 --> 00:46:18,570 | This is typical, where you have old high |
| 214 | 00:46:20,130 --> 00:46:35,040 | school, just consolidate and fancy dance around. Now, because we have that fair value gap formed, based on the 850 count time candle on a five minute chart, I |
| 215 | 00:46:35,040 --> 00:46:47,700 | would not want to see price go below the low of that, that low specifically, is the price formed on the high of the candle at 845. Okay, so you want to have a |
| 216 | 00:46:47,700 --> 00:46:58,230 | line on that. I don't have this in my charts. This is how my mind is processing it. Obviously, if you if I had a line on everything I'm outlining here, the |
| 217 | 00:46:58,230 --> 00:47:11,430 | chart would be so busy, it would be a mess, it will forget an algo box chart and you don't want that. Yes. So we don't want that low, that fair value got to be |
| 218 | 00:47:11,430 --> 00:47:23,760 | taken out. So everything should stay bullish as long as the low of that fair value gap at 30 997. And a quarter stays intact. If that gives up the ghost in |
| 219 | 00:47:23,760 --> 00:47:31,950 | other words, if it breaks through it and leaves it goes below it and trades away from it, not just dips below it and needs to trade through it and below it, then |
| 220 | 00:47:31,950 --> 00:47:40,290 | and only then would I change my mind about where I think the markets going to go and then I would change my mind to looking for the low formed at 830 which I |
| 221 | 00:47:40,290 --> 00:47:50,400 | don't subscribe to at the moment. So we're presently looking for a run rate above which we got it now that screen shot that that would be a partial that |
| 222 | 00:47:50,400 --> 00:48:01,410 | right there is exactly what you would be taking on a day like this and you want to be taken at least 75% of the trade off and you will leave a small portion on |
| 223 | 00:48:02,160 --> 00:48:04,950 | the see if it can run to 4030 |
| 224 | 00:48:10,740 --> 00:48:24,240 | and then stop would be rolled to breakeven. So you've taken two parcels out theoretically and you can take it over to social media post it now so you cherry |
| 225 | 00:48:24,240 --> 00:48:24,750 | pick the two |
| 226 | 00:48:28,230 --> 00:48:29,370 | I'm gonna have so much fun |
| 227 | 00:48:31,380 --> 00:48:32,340 | so much crow |
| 228 | 00:48:38,400 --> 00:48:40,110 | Alright, let's take a look at |
| 229 | 00:48:44,130 --> 00:48:54,540 | now let's let's play devil's advocate for a moment say this thing is to continue higher. I don't know if it is okay, we haven't even got to 930 yet. If it were |
| 230 | 00:48:54,540 --> 00:49:09,690 | to continue higher. The next two levels I'm interested in is 40304 es and then 403 8.75. So you want to have those on your charts now. I'm doing that as I'm |
| 231 | 00:49:09,690 --> 00:49:12,870 | talking to you. So 4030 even |
| 232 | 00:49:18,600 --> 00:49:28,350 | and then another one and I use the little horizontal array where it's just a line going to the right right from wherever I drop it |
| 233 | 00:49:36,750 --> 00:49:42,420 | okay, and then on us 500 The equivalent would be bear with me a second I didn't forget you. |
| 234 | 00:49:58,830 --> 00:50:21,870 | For us 500 If it were to continue, I'd like to levels 401 4.2 and four, zero to 911. Okay, so our attention goes back to that candle at 850. Okay, so regardless |
| 235 | 00:50:21,870 --> 00:50:32,070 | of whether you're following along on us 500 For the CFD traders that can't trade the US futures market don't have real time data. The same thing applies the time |
| 236 | 00:50:32,070 --> 00:50:44,940 | candle on five minute basis. So your chart should be an interval of five minutes per candle. And the 850 time candle. Okay, that candle? Is the fair value got |
| 237 | 00:50:45,210 --> 00:50:57,810 | the candle prior to it at 845 timewise. That high comes in at 399 7.25. We do not want to see that level breached. And doesn't we don't want to see it go down |
| 238 | 00:50:57,810 --> 00:51:08,760 | below that if it does, that changes everything. And it puts us on standby mode and number of expected to show willingness to want to go lower after that. Can |
| 239 | 00:51:08,760 --> 00:51:18,870 | it dip into the low of the candle formed at 855? And in time? Yes, it can do that and still go higher? It can that's not a problem. It's this preferred that |
| 240 | 00:51:18,870 --> 00:51:20,100 | we do not see that. |
| 241 | 00:51:31,590 --> 00:51:37,830 | And read about now if you were in a trade, you'd be thanking yourself for taking partials. Because there's a lot of clowns out there don't tell you partials are |
| 242 | 00:51:37,830 --> 00:51:49,440 | stupid partials is how you get paid. Until you collect your profitable trade in some capacity, whether it be part of it, half of it or all of it. A trade open |
| 243 | 00:51:49,740 --> 00:52:01,110 | with profit with profits is not profitable until you realize the game actually, that means you have to close it. So listen to people talk like that is |
| 244 | 00:52:01,140 --> 00:52:09,690 | nonsensical. The whole point of you doing this is to make money. If you can't make money in bank something, what are you doing? |
| 245 | 00:52:16,950 --> 00:52:27,000 | The levels I gave out earlier, we're just does the experience factor because it's too hard of a read right now. There's nothing logical to base anything on |
| 246 | 00:52:27,000 --> 00:52:36,210 | because it's just a choppy, little range that hasn't been productive, and in many ways haven't done much at all. It caused harm to anyone that was long |
| 247 | 00:52:36,210 --> 00:52:36,750 | already though. |
| 248 | 00:52:51,660 --> 00:53:06,630 | So theoretically, you would have two partials in the bank today. And your stop loss would be essentially at the opening price on the 850 candle. So if it |
| 249 | 00:53:06,630 --> 00:53:18,780 | trades at that point, that we would call that a stop on the bounce. And you would just move to the sidelines and wait for a new setup or do nothing because |
| 250 | 00:53:18,780 --> 00:53:28,410 | you've made something and it's CPI. Not that you're trading CPI. I'm not saying that this is you should be trading it. I'm just saying from an experience point. |
| 251 | 00:53:29,280 --> 00:53:39,600 | Like right that right there. What is it just done that dipping below the low of the 55 candle. If it's gonna go higher, it shouldn't go much lower than it is |
| 252 | 00:53:39,600 --> 00:53:49,890 | right now and it should start to go higher from here. If it breaks the low of the fair value gap which is the very high of your candle at 845. Near term |
| 253 | 00:53:49,890 --> 00:53:59,430 | bullishness for me, would me be moved to the sidelines I would move neutral so I wouldn't be bullish or bearish I would be watching how we trade below the low of |
| 254 | 00:53:59,430 --> 00:54:01,620 | the candles high at 845. |
| 255 | 00:54:26,940 --> 00:54:30,480 | I just realized something I'm not sure if I took this off mute |
| 256 | 00:54:35,880 --> 00:55:00,630 | it looks like it's still going. Can Do me a favor and tweet to me if you can hear me. Can you hear me? Thank you, Bill. Thank you, Jake. You're welcome. |
| 257 | 00:55:02,910 --> 00:55:13,410 | Alright, so we're not quite in the middle of that fair value gap that's formed on the five minute chart based on the 850 candle, but halfway through that, |
| 258 | 00:55:13,410 --> 00:55:24,450 | that's consequent encroachment, I would not want to see that breached, it can go just a little bit deeper a preference, preferably it shouldn't. But I'd like to |
| 259 | 00:55:24,450 --> 00:55:33,510 | see a turn from here and start to build more bullish candles and then try to run through the high formed on the nine o'clock candle |
| 260 | 00:55:43,290 --> 00:55:58,050 | we still got more than 15 minutes or so before the opening bell at 930. So a lot of things can change and shift and gyrate between now and then. And what small |
| 261 | 00:55:58,050 --> 00:56:04,140 | little modest study based bias I have here can unravel quickly |
| 262 | 00:56:11,190 --> 00:56:23,310 | so I want you on your five minute chart whether you're using the US 500 To follow along or if you're using the ES live grab your rectangle tool and take it |
| 263 | 00:56:23,310 --> 00:56:35,880 | up to a point which where it says four zero 15 Even or just find any location on your chart and then drag it down to the equivalent of five handles |
| 264 | 00:56:42,330 --> 00:56:54,720 | and I want you to think about how that is it. That's the range of what you're trying to accomplish. As a starting point as a low hanging fruit first rung |
| 265 | 00:56:55,470 --> 00:57:04,800 | objective as a student of mine you're looking for just that look how much we've moved around our eat so far on a day that's very difficult to read. Very very |
| 266 | 00:57:04,800 --> 00:57:16,980 | difficult to read and you've been witness to me walking through and you're hitting the bottom of that fear of a gap now so you want to watch and see does |
| 267 | 00:57:16,980 --> 00:57:19,680 | it support it? Or is it this rip right through it and show no respect |
| 268 | 00:57:39,630 --> 00:57:51,030 | in my input you should have a line segment drawn from the 850 Candles opening price that being 399 3.75 That would be the hypothetical stoploss that would be |
| 269 | 00:57:51,030 --> 00:57:58,830 | breaker even for me with two partials banked and then if it hits that level, then we will be neutral we would go to the side and we. |
| 270 | 00:58:23,940 --> 00:58:35,370 | Now if this was Forex, you'd already be stopped down. This is the way it is. It's wild and then you're trading in your brokers liquidity pool |
| 271 | 00:58:39,390 --> 00:58:41,310 | you're non ICT you're talking about |
| 272 | 00:58:48,540 --> 00:59:08,700 | and stopped, okay. So now log that screenshot that. Okay, so you've seen a run that offered an opportunity to move from a low of 3992 and a half all the way up |
| 273 | 00:59:08,700 --> 00:59:15,510 | to a high of 4021. Okay, so |
| 274 | 00:59:22,680 --> 00:59:31,590 | look at the range I told you to draw out with a rectangle is five handles five points. Okay. So that would be like drawing from on your ES chart would be |
| 275 | 00:59:31,590 --> 00:59:46,800 | 4015 4015. Drag the rectangle down to 400. I'm sorry. 4010. So it's five handles. Okay, that small little box. That's what your eyes looking for |
| 276 | 00:59:46,800 --> 00:59:55,500 | fluctuations to capitalize on. That's it. That's the smallest threshold objective that you need to concern yourself with if you're brand new. Because |
| 277 | 00:59:55,500 --> 01:00:09,570 | those five handles if you're trading with one mini that 250 bucks For some of you probably listening aren't even making $250 a day. But that one movement that |
| 278 | 01:00:09,570 --> 01:00:16,920 | can change your whole life because that's the first building block of being able to be consistently profitable finding something that repeats over and over and |
| 279 | 01:00:16,920 --> 01:00:17,310 | over again. |
| 280 | 01:00:28,440 --> 01:00:36,810 | Okay, so price is going down into the candle at 840 that we outlined as our initial ideal order block. |
| 281 | 01:01:11,130 --> 01:01:18,960 | Can you see how to move away from Africa bank app after touching the bottom of it? On the kit, the presentation that we're in right now, it traded right back |
| 282 | 01:01:18,960 --> 01:01:29,820 | up from its opening, bumped the low the fair value gap and then expanded down lower. So that's a signature that would, as I was stopped out, if I watched that |
| 283 | 01:01:29,820 --> 01:01:38,250 | occur, I would feel better about the idea that I got stopped out. Instead of just thinking like a typical trader would be like, I stopped down and be |
| 284 | 01:01:38,250 --> 01:01:49,920 | frustrated, I'd be thankful that the stock did its job I paid that stop like pathetically to do its job to prevent me from losing more. It's a paradigm shift |
| 285 | 01:01:49,920 --> 01:01:56,130 | that you're going to have to have as a trader, because right now, if you're new, you're thinking, I don't want to use a stop loss, because that guarantees I'm |
| 286 | 01:01:56,130 --> 01:02:07,560 | going to take a loss. When a professional mindset is I am going to lose, it's going to happen. So I have to limit that loss responsibly. And I have to have a |
| 287 | 01:02:07,560 --> 01:02:21,930 | mechanism a shield in my repertoire that protects me from having excessive loss. And it's difficult to grasp that when you're new. Because your first priority |
| 288 | 01:02:21,930 --> 01:02:29,670 | for you is I want to lose money. Well, that's answered rather quickly and easily by just simply not trading before you know how to trade. So you won't need to |
| 289 | 01:02:29,670 --> 01:02:38,070 | worry about the stop loss yet because you haven't even learned how to trade or reprice yet. So you're placing so much concern and fear and anxiety on an |
| 290 | 01:02:38,070 --> 01:02:47,520 | element of the essential factors of consistently profitable trading, which is money management, risk management and implementation of a stoploss. That goes |
| 291 | 01:02:47,520 --> 01:02:55,800 | without saying that that's an important, but it's not important for you right now. Because you have to be able to know what the markets doing. Before you put |
| 292 | 01:02:55,800 --> 01:03:07,380 | a trade on, can you really read what price is doing so far, we've respected the opening price on that waterblock at 840. And we're back into the low of the fair |
| 293 | 01:03:07,380 --> 01:03:22,350 | value gap that was formed on the candle at 850. Still on a five minute chart on es nothing terrible here yet. Nothing. Nothing that exciting. But necessary. We |
| 294 | 01:03:22,350 --> 01:03:32,520 | were not in CPI conditions, I would already be going long. And looking for a run above the relative equal highs at 4020. Just based on this, because I will view |
| 295 | 01:03:32,760 --> 01:03:41,580 | I'm not saying to don't take that as a trade. Okay, but I would. In other instances, I would view that as such, because I would view the 830 drop down as |
| 296 | 01:03:41,580 --> 01:03:51,720 | a Judas swing to get people offside trap, thinking that's gonna go lower and upset all the liquidity below the lows, if you scroll back on your chart, |
| 297 | 01:03:51,960 --> 01:03:59,400 | whether it be on the 15th or if you want to go to a higher timeframe, sorry, five minute or 15 minute chart to the left, you can see that drop down at 830. |
| 298 | 01:04:00,360 --> 01:04:13,200 | Whether using us 500, or ES live. It cleared up all the cell stops that were trailed below recent advancements into the 4018 before the 30 news came out. So |
| 299 | 01:04:13,200 --> 01:04:25,440 | I believe that drop at 830 as a fake move, and then the retracement down into that 840 Candle being a bullish order block. And then I want to watch and see |
| 300 | 01:04:25,440 --> 01:04:39,030 | does it have the energy to go through that fair value get formed at the 910 level. Okay, so your 910 time candle on the five minute chart. That's a fair |
| 301 | 01:04:39,030 --> 01:04:47,790 | value gap. But I'm not going to annotate that I'm using the same rectangle that's on the fairway gap that I outlined and talk to you through it 850s candle |
| 302 | 01:04:49,020 --> 01:04:54,780 | and then some of you that are brand new, you're completely lost right now. That's okay. Trust me, you'll be able to go through this later on and see |
| 303 | 01:04:54,780 --> 01:05:06,330 | exactly what I'm talking about. But you should make it easier. I will when we're doing live streams on YouTube right now, I'm keeping myself close to the |
| 304 | 01:05:06,330 --> 01:05:09,150 | marketplace that way I'm not rusty doing it live in front of |
| 305 | 01:05:09,150 --> 01:05:24,390 | you doesn't want to, doesn't want to expand hire quickly to on this candle or the very next candle preferably this one here, I'd like to see it really |
| 306 | 01:05:24,420 --> 01:05:37,500 | aggressively run up and take out the low of the candle at 855. That would be going through the full fair value gap that was formed on the 850 time five |
| 307 | 01:05:37,500 --> 01:05:47,730 | minute candle to that big green candle at 850. I'm watching to see if the present candle that we're forming on a five minute chart doesn't have the energy |
| 308 | 01:05:47,730 --> 01:06:00,450 | and the momentum to carry us all the way through the gap that's been formed. Because if you look at what's going on here, we have a candle at 910 on a five |
| 309 | 01:06:00,450 --> 01:06:14,190 | minute chart. Yeah, so we're us 500 We have a candle at 910. And then the candle at 850. Both of those candles are one single pass the 850 candle was a one |
| 310 | 01:06:14,190 --> 01:06:27,120 | single pass up, then we had one single pass going down at 910. So that being a potential to be a bounced price range, if it rejects this and can't climb |
| 311 | 01:06:27,120 --> 01:06:39,600 | through it. And if it stifles any movement higher, that really increases the likelihood of us running down to the lows that were formed on 830. So quickly, |
| 312 | 01:06:39,600 --> 01:06:48,510 | you can see how there's a whole lot of this type of balancing and measuring and seeing what you should be doing. And that's why it's very challenging as a |
| 313 | 01:06:48,570 --> 01:06:55,980 | developing student, because you don't even know what you're supposed to be considering as important. You're just looking for, give me an order block or a |
| 314 | 01:06:55,980 --> 01:07:04,350 | fair baguette to trade on. There are so many things that has to be weighed out and decided. And that's why I have a great deal of respect for people that live |
| 315 | 01:07:04,350 --> 01:07:12,780 | stream because not only are they doing all those things that make up the decision process of following their model, whatever it is, they also have to |
| 316 | 01:07:12,780 --> 01:07:23,010 | know that the outcome of whatever they're doing is going to be judged harshly, even by the folks that supposedly support them, they know in their heart of |
| 317 | 01:07:23,010 --> 01:07:30,900 | hearts that that's going to be impactful to them, because they look at you as a hero. Okay, and here I am not trying to be a hero, I'm just teaching you how to |
| 318 | 01:07:30,900 --> 01:07:38,910 | be price so so far, we're about halfway in to that gap |
| 319 | 01:07:53,070 --> 01:08:06,300 | so using the order block 840 and targeting the top of the fair value gap that was formed at the 850 candle that will be a very low hanging fruit objective for |
| 320 | 01:08:06,330 --> 01:08:15,960 | a beginning trader paper trading or not a victory but like tape reading. So if it were to touch the top of the fair value gap or the low of the very specific |
| 321 | 01:08:15,960 --> 01:08:30,690 | candle at 855 time you want to screenshot that and that would be that's more than five handles but plenty to do well as a beginning student and you're just |
| 322 | 01:08:30,690 --> 01:08:40,710 | watching how price gravitates from one level to the next expecting it to do certain things and behave a certain way in certain things not manifests itself |
| 323 | 01:08:40,710 --> 01:08:41,310 | in price |
| 324 | 01:09:07,260 --> 01:09:19,560 | now we don't want to see a trade below and through with an energy like a lot of excitement below 3997 and a quarter or the high formed on the 915 candle. |
| 325 | 01:09:20,010 --> 01:09:21,420 | Everything's still in a five minute chart |
| 326 | 01:09:38,580 --> 01:09:41,910 | like it's talking the me ICT |
| 327 | 01:10:36,420 --> 01:10:42,150 | All right two and a half minutes to the opening opening bell at 930. |
| 328 | 01:11:14,610 --> 01:11:18,480 | mean that depends on the next one |
| 329 | 01:11:42,300 --> 01:11:59,880 | so far we're just consolidating inside that Faraday gap a 50s candle and a nine tenths candle. So if it moves energetically below 3997 and a quarter and goes |
| 330 | 01:11:59,880 --> 01:12:09,600 | back into that order block that was formed and we've been monitoring it 840s Down closed candle that would indicate that we're inside of a bounce price |
| 331 | 01:12:09,600 --> 01:12:18,870 | range. And then we could use that information going in to 930. So far, we've not shown any kind of energetic move below 3997 and a quarter, since we tested it |
| 332 | 01:12:18,870 --> 01:12:20,100 | and we're back in the middle of the gap |
| 333 | 01:12:27,840 --> 01:12:37,530 | but all things being equal, and this assume that this is not a CPI number day, okay, we're not in that, that climate, if you will, the outline that we're |
| 334 | 01:12:37,530 --> 01:12:45,240 | looking at here that would have been a long entry for me at the order block dropping down and I'm going to look for running above 4020 accelerating into |
| 335 | 01:12:45,240 --> 01:13:00,450 | 4030 and that's what I would look for but because we're not in that we're in CPI data release in the 1930s opening in less than 11 seconds we have to just paper |
| 336 | 01:13:00,630 --> 01:13:12,420 | or tape tape read it I have not pushed the button I promise you you're not going to get a dose This is the dose very very difficult read. |
| 337 | 01:13:37,980 --> 01:13:46,770 | Want to touch up the 3997 and a quarter the low the fair Vega which is the high of the candle at 90 I'm sorry to eat 45 Candle |
| 338 | 01:13:54,990 --> 01:14:05,490 | notice there's an a lack of energy right now. You usually have the opening bell it's a lot of a rush to do something a lot of volatility we're not seeing that |
| 339 | 01:14:05,490 --> 01:14:05,670 | yet |
| 340 | 01:14:16,230 --> 01:14:31,320 | okay, leaving the February gap in took out the low of the 925. Candle I still would like to see it expand aggressively higher. |
| 341 | 01:14:46,170 --> 01:14:55,350 | To the question is, is when you're looking at this as a new student or someone that's maybe a breakeven trader, and you're just looking for a way to determine |
| 342 | 01:14:55,350 --> 01:15:03,900 | when the market looks like it's going to do something like what is a market that's poor Ways to do something with a high degree of probability. You're not |
| 343 | 01:15:03,900 --> 01:15:13,320 | seeing that here today. Okay. And that's one of the benefits of being in an environment like this, I mean, I guess coached through it, because there's so |
| 344 | 01:15:13,320 --> 01:15:29,040 | many factors that would otherwise lead to you losing money. By not knowing this by not being able to recognize choppy, uncertain conditions came back down into |
| 345 | 01:15:29,040 --> 01:15:35,790 | the high of the candle at 840. So 840s Candle timelines are trading into that again. |
| 346 | 01:16:05,820 --> 01:16:20,220 | Alright, so we have evidence that that's a balanced price range now at the range that we bought was a fair value gap. So your attention should turn to the low |
| 347 | 01:16:20,670 --> 01:16:35,220 | that it's just been taken out at 915. Okay, we're going to treat that as a potential short term shift in market structure. I'm drawing a line out from that |
| 348 | 01:16:35,220 --> 01:16:43,140 | to the right, that's usually that orange line. I usually put like a little light bulb icon on my chart. |
| 349 | 01:16:58,440 --> 01:17:13,710 | And I'm dropping down into a one minute chart now. So you should have a line drawn from the right on the 918 Blow. And we're bouncing up into what could |
| 350 | 01:17:13,710 --> 01:17:24,720 | potentially be a Faraday gap formed on the candle at 930 to one a one minute chart, we've just stabbed up into it. And you should have your level drawn at |
| 351 | 01:17:25,500 --> 01:17:34,200 | the 30 low that price should be for ies it should be 3954 even. |
| 352 | 01:17:40,500 --> 01:17:50,970 | Okay, and then you would, hypothetically in your minds, okay, we're inside, we went up into the high of the 933 candle. That will be enough by poking into that |
| 353 | 01:17:50,970 --> 01:18:03,570 | that's enough for a short you want to watch this gravitate with a lot of energy to get below the 844 level. And the 840 low. That would be first potential |
| 354 | 01:18:03,570 --> 01:18:07,440 | profit or partial that's why you would look at it like that |
| 355 | 01:18:21,630 --> 01:18:28,110 | I have not pushed the button. If no, there's no trade. I'm not going to do any trades today. Okay, if I trade anything, it'd be in the pm session. |
| 356 | 01:18:35,730 --> 01:18:48,540 | Tape reading this. You want to have the little trendline segment draw a trendline from the high of your 933 candle. Try that out to the right. |
| 357 | 01:18:55,980 --> 01:19:05,280 | Okay, and you can see how we went up into that high just by a little bit on the 934 time candle and then we're on a one minute chart right now. |
| 358 | 01:19:15,810 --> 01:19:23,340 | You're not trying to place a trade. You don't need to worry about a stop right now. All you're doing is you're reading it. Does it show the signatures does it |
| 359 | 01:19:23,340 --> 01:19:32,010 | want to move in gyrate? You're all thinking, Okay, if that's an entry, where will my stop loss be? It's not a trade. I'm teaching you how to read the tape |
| 360 | 01:19:32,250 --> 01:19:40,020 | cut until you can start doing this. You can't figure out where to put a stoploss you won't be able to go in the right way you won't be able to know what the |
| 361 | 01:19:40,020 --> 01:19:48,060 | markets gonna do. There's there's stages in this development, you have to go through the right process. Every single one of my failed students, every single |
| 362 | 01:19:48,060 --> 01:19:55,530 | one of them do the same thing over and over again. They rushed to try to get into a trade. They want to make money right away and they're not prepared to do |
| 363 | 01:19:55,530 --> 01:20:00,300 | it. They haven't properly learned how to trust what it is that you're gonna be trying to put money behind. Mind |
| 364 | 01:20:05,490 --> 01:20:07,920 | get your screencapture ready |
| 365 | 01:20:14,280 --> 01:20:24,540 | I don't want to see the open on the candle at 935 be breached. Okay, that small little up candle, you can retouch that, or Retrade back up into it. But I want |
| 366 | 01:20:24,540 --> 01:20:33,720 | to see it, preferably leave a small little gap on the candle that was formed at 936 between the candle at 935 and the present candle we're in right now, I want |
| 367 | 01:20:33,720 --> 01:20:43,830 | to see that small little area stay open. It can trade back up there, it's fine. But I'd prefer to see a small piece left open and then go down below the low at |
| 368 | 01:20:43,950 --> 01:20:57,090 | 840. But we have now traded back up to that up close candle. Very small shallow sell side liquidity pool, resting below the low at 840. I want to see now this |
| 369 | 01:20:57,090 --> 01:21:05,610 | candle with the very next candle real sudden dropped below it. If it does that you want to screen capture it as it does that |
| 370 | 01:21:20,970 --> 01:21:27,000 | you're all saying you weren't ready to take a trade. So you're like, I'm glad I didn't take a trade |
| 371 | 01:21:35,100 --> 01:21:53,160 | now you want to take your rectangle and from the low on the 931 candle to the 933 candle, drag that rectangle out in time. Drive drag it out to like 950 |
| 372 | 01:21:54,060 --> 01:22:08,250 | timewise. Okay, price could go back up into that. Okay, which is the reason why I didn't discuss anything about stop loss because you can go in and use the the |
| 373 | 01:22:08,250 --> 01:22:22,140 | high on the 933 Candle as your entry went on the 934 Candle when it went when it poked above 930 threes high. That's an institutional order for entry drill. Five |
| 374 | 01:22:22,140 --> 01:22:36,600 | handles were offered on that run lower, and it need not do what it need not go to the low at 40. But notice what it did reach below. Look at the closing price |
| 375 | 01:22:36,600 --> 01:22:47,490 | at 844. Just for a moment, you're not going to keep this on there. But just for a moment. Drag the line I told you to anchor from 840 slow drag that little |
| 376 | 01:22:47,490 --> 01:23:02,400 | horizontal array or trendline or anyone use it, drag it up to the closing price at 844. That's a rejection block. So does it offer from running out the high on |
| 377 | 01:23:02,400 --> 01:23:12,150 | the 933? High one on one minute chart? It runs above it. And then that would be your short? Does it offer five handles to get down to that rejection block |
| 378 | 01:23:12,150 --> 01:23:24,960 | because that would be your next discount array? Yes, it's done it beautifully. And it didn't need to take out the wick low at 840. And now what is the price |
| 379 | 01:23:24,960 --> 01:23:38,610 | doing? It's this meandering around between the rejection block and the low formed at 918. So we would prefer to see it expand once more and aggressively |
| 380 | 01:23:38,610 --> 01:23:53,040 | attack the liquidity resting below the 844 low. So put your mind back on that a 44 low we want to see that. If it were to trade back up into the fair value gap |
| 381 | 01:23:53,040 --> 01:24:05,760 | that is outlined for you based on the 932 candle. I used that as a totally new partial going into the idea that we could still run the 939 76 and a quarter |
| 382 | 01:24:05,760 --> 01:24:10,590 | slow Alright, so no watch out this next candle should be topping lower |
| 383 | 01:24:25,890 --> 01:24:38,640 | but I've handled slugs I know it sounds like that's not sexy ICT I'm gonna do Hunter handles like you do. I started like this. I started just like this small |
| 384 | 01:24:38,640 --> 01:24:49,110 | little incremental moves. And they build and you start seeing more five handle moves and then they become 10. And there you go. screenshot that. Now they're |
| 385 | 01:24:49,110 --> 01:25:01,890 | cherry pick. picking cherries real time. Be sure to tip your waitress. I'll be here all week. And that's it. He'd moved to this sidelines and you're done. You |
| 386 | 01:25:01,890 --> 01:25:12,930 | had several handles offered to you in tape reading, outlined it real time with you walk you through it every single individual candle. Okay, no yin and yang |
| 387 | 01:25:12,930 --> 01:25:23,700 | symbols needed. Okay? None of that nonsense. It's real time algorithmic price delivery, that's all it is. Now, this is a sloppy day, this is very, very hard |
| 388 | 01:25:23,700 --> 01:25:34,350 | on a difficulty scale of one to 100, where it's like 90, it's very hard to read this right now for me. So if I'm telling you, this is hard, and you can't really |
| 389 | 01:25:34,350 --> 01:25:43,950 | see the benefit of anything in price action right now, you're okay, that's fine. That's that's how you should feel about it. All right, now you want to take your |
| 390 | 01:25:43,950 --> 01:25:58,830 | attention to the load 830. We don't want to see that range that was identified by me moments ago, that 932 candle that fair value got, we don't want to see |
| 391 | 01:25:58,830 --> 01:26:11,700 | that return to now we want to treat that as a breakaway gap. And now because we're well below the what is the 840 low on your one minute chart, you want to |
| 392 | 01:26:11,700 --> 01:26:23,880 | see it expand down to the rejection block, which is the closing price at the 830 candle. And that's going to be way different for us 500. And just for you guys, |
| 393 | 01:26:24,120 --> 01:26:32,790 | just use the low of 830. Okay, but for ES the specific level is 3967 and a quarter we're gonna see it reach below that and that would be another partial |
| 394 | 01:26:33,030 --> 01:26:35,160 | 80% of your trade should be off at that point. |
| 395 | 01:26:41,730 --> 01:26:48,900 | I know some of you are not listening and you're in trades right now and you're flipping out because you're making money and you can't handle it and told you |
| 396 | 01:26:48,900 --> 01:27:05,310 | how to do it. It's worse than crack not that I have experienced with crack but when I see it as soon as it cracks 3967 and a quarter you want to have that |
| 397 | 01:27:05,310 --> 01:27:05,880 | screenshot |
| 398 | 01:27:26,040 --> 01:27:33,900 | you should have it typed out already on your chart. 80% comes off below that line and then moving to screen capture it. It'll be in your screen capture as it |
| 399 | 01:27:33,900 --> 01:27:41,280 | happens. And it's just really nice to have that on the weekend looking back saying I watched this live I watched it really paint out right there. It was |
| 400 | 01:27:41,280 --> 01:27:52,500 | really happening in front of me. This stuff works. It's crazy. No no. It gets boring. After a while. I get excited to see all of you get energized by it. |
| 401 | 01:28:02,040 --> 01:28:16,230 | Oops, there's that luck again. Now, you're WIC for ES traders, you want to take your Fibonacci and measure an anchor from the low on a 30 candle up to the |
| 402 | 01:28:16,230 --> 01:28:28,860 | closing price that comes to 3960 and three quarters you want to have a line on your chart at that price 3960 and three quarters you would take a partial below |
| 403 | 01:28:28,860 --> 01:28:36,870 | that and then let the rest run and see if we can take out the low at 3954 Even or whatever your low is and us 500 |
| 404 | 01:28:42,090 --> 01:28:53,730 | Oh, it's so much different when you're doing it live ICT haters are flipping out right now. He'll never do this week. Do you see what I'm doing the rest of this |
| 405 | 01:28:53,730 --> 01:29:03,510 | year? It's closing time. Ain't nobody selling mentorships this year. |
| 406 | 01:29:15,510 --> 01:29:24,420 | Now think about what sweet spot you would begin right now. You've had two partials going long got stopped out with the bounce, no big deal. We waited for |
| 407 | 01:29:24,420 --> 01:29:31,200 | 930. We waited for it to indicate what it wanted to do. We watched a very specific level does it act as a balanced price range and it gave us our |
| 408 | 01:29:31,200 --> 01:29:40,440 | signature. Then we saw another imbalance and a shift in market structure where I showed you the line where it went below it mapped out where the imbalance would |
| 409 | 01:29:40,440 --> 01:29:50,790 | be if it traded up into that that would be using it as an entry that was on the candle at 934. Okay. One of the things that you're going to have to learn to |
| 410 | 01:29:50,790 --> 01:30:02,070 | just submit to is the process of time being in a trade. It's all together something different like when you watch my recordings and I'm executing, it's |
| 411 | 01:30:02,070 --> 01:30:10,200 | entertaining, it's great. Sometimes I use great music, sometimes it's probably not your genre, it's fine. It's just for me, not for you. But that element of |
| 412 | 01:30:10,200 --> 01:30:19,050 | watching how fast it goes to the targets, and where I'm peeling off profit partials that unfortunately can trick you into thinking that that's how fast it |
| 413 | 01:30:19,050 --> 01:30:29,490 | should feel for you in a trade. And that was one of the worst growing pains for me as a trader, because being in a profitable trade, and I haven't taken |
| 414 | 01:30:29,490 --> 01:30:39,240 | anything out, that feels like forever, if I'm just holding for my Terminus target, and my ultimate target in this case would be the low of the day at 830. |
| 415 | 01:30:39,960 --> 01:30:51,660 | This point here, which we're trading at a level where 80% of the trades already off, hypothetically. So you're in profit 80%, it doesn't matter. Okay, listen, |
| 416 | 01:30:51,660 --> 01:31:06,000 | write this down in your journal. It does not even matter if 830 slaves taken out or not. See that that transaction is about being right. Right is not profitable, |
| 417 | 01:31:06,720 --> 01:31:16,410 | profitable, is profitable. So we're looking for ways to take things to the marketplace, where it makes sense to do so where there is liquidity where |
| 418 | 01:31:16,410 --> 01:31:22,650 | there's a reason for the market to be repriced, at what's the what's the basis for price, even going to these levels. That's what I walked you through this |
| 419 | 01:31:22,650 --> 01:31:30,420 | morning, that was the narrative, you're not seeing that with other people out there, you're just seeing them show you results on an empty form. Or they're |
| 420 | 01:31:30,420 --> 01:31:44,400 | doing lots of trades and go into full max loss and not using stop losses. So there is a degree of mastery that you will grow into. But you start here. And |
| 421 | 01:31:44,400 --> 01:31:53,580 | you do this for weeks and months. And then you learn how you're going to interpret price. How has it felt for you to watch this was as it was melting |
| 422 | 01:31:53,580 --> 01:32:02,010 | down, respecting the levels I'm calling out and showing you very minute candles, telling you what it should do what should not do? How did that feel watching |
| 423 | 01:32:02,010 --> 01:32:10,080 | that? Did you feel anxious? Did you feel comforted? Because I'm talking about it? Did you want to fade it? I guarantee it trolls out there trying to do the |
| 424 | 01:32:10,080 --> 01:32:17,130 | opposite because they were hoping I was doing it wrong. So they can go look at ICT did today. But I did the opposite. You got your ass wreck today. But |
| 425 | 01:32:17,880 --> 01:32:26,310 | feelings watching this real time. You have to really pay attention to that and your journal. You should be doing the most of that today. So after we close our |
| 426 | 01:32:26,310 --> 01:32:37,500 | session, you want to go to your journal while it's fresh in your mind. What did you feel? And be honest with yourself? This is the moment where you have to be |
| 427 | 01:32:37,500 --> 01:32:48,630 | honest with the observations of you as a trader, feeling what it felt like to watch the price deliver algorithmically, not retail logic. Nothing in this is |
| 428 | 01:32:48,630 --> 01:32:59,400 | retail. There was nothing in here. Nothing in here from Chris Laurie, nothing supply and demand. Nothing Elliott Wave nothing like that. Nothing harmonic. |
| 429 | 01:33:00,180 --> 01:33:11,700 | It's just simple algorithmic time and price. You want to screenshot this right now. There you go. So now you'd only have less than 10% Maybe 10% of your |
| 430 | 01:33:11,700 --> 01:33:29,430 | original position short from 934. So it's been 1-234-567-8910 1112 1314 15 It's been 16 minutes and you made more than you've earned in your jobs weekly salary. |
| 431 | 01:33:29,460 --> 01:33:36,270 | If you've been working with one contract. Now I'm taking a great deal liberty because most people don't make that much money in the United States. And on |
| 432 | 01:33:36,270 --> 01:33:43,590 | there, some of you are probably doing some high dollar stuff, but you should be 90% out of your trade. And at a point where the stock would roll to I would |
| 433 | 01:33:43,620 --> 01:33:55,200 | hypothetically have my stock at 3972 and a half. Why that? Because it's just above the fair value gap that's formed at the 944 candle. So it would be above |
| 434 | 01:33:55,200 --> 01:34:11,520 | that. And if it comes back and stops me that's fine. I wouldn't want to be in it any longer. So many people falling in love today where this guy came from I love |
| 435 | 01:34:11,520 --> 01:34:26,220 | him. I love him I got so much stuff this year you have no idea where I'm taking you this year. I'm actually fall in love with live streaming. So don't every day |
| 436 | 01:34:26,340 --> 01:34:41,580 | shut everybody down. Do it ICT do it. Now think about what you feel right now. If you had 90% off on your trade 90% off. How would you feel about that |
| 437 | 01:34:41,580 --> 01:34:53,640 | retracement so far. You don't give a shit because your bank 90% And you're not basing your trading on the transaction of being right or wrong, right or wrong, |
| 438 | 01:34:53,970 --> 01:35:06,450 | has no basis for profitability. None has absolutely nothing to do with it. Now, draw out your rectangle on the candle at 944, you're going to go to the 943, |
| 439 | 01:35:06,450 --> 01:35:21,360 | candles low, drag it to the 945 Candles high. Okay, and then drag that out in time I'm watching that level there, it should not go above that if it does, |
| 440 | 01:35:21,570 --> 01:35:22,470 | we're done for the morning. |
| 441 | 01:35:29,640 --> 01:35:52,110 | So I would roll my stop to come on I'm holding the phone in my hand, I'm trying to drag my finger across my laptops that don't have a mouse on his neck, I use |
| 442 | 01:35:52,110 --> 01:36:02,130 | everything on a laptop, in case someone hacks or tries to do something while I'm connected to the accounts that I don't trade with one live account everything |
| 443 | 01:36:02,130 --> 01:36:10,740 | through trading view, what I'm sharing with you is all through a laptop, I'll have my stock at 39, six and a half. So if it went there, I'd be content with |
| 444 | 01:36:10,740 --> 01:36:19,230 | being knocked out there and be it's fine, I don't care. And you shouldn't care either if you were in a trade, but I would want to see it drop lower from here |
| 445 | 01:36:19,230 --> 01:36:28,860 | because we already had that candle returned back to that fear. Vega is mapped out for you at 951. And you want to have 100% of your trade off. If it goes |
| 446 | 01:36:28,860 --> 01:36:42,600 | below the three low and I don't care how much it goes beyond that. You don't care. Because all of your all of your fear, anxiety, performance issues are all |
| 447 | 01:36:42,600 --> 01:36:52,260 | going to come initially with being right or wrong. And I'm trying to train you not to think like that. Okay, don't think that way, you got to find a way to get |
| 448 | 01:36:52,260 --> 01:37:00,750 | in here. Find a position to go in that has a measurable risk that's palatable for you what does that mean? Can you take that trade can you afford to be in |
| 449 | 01:37:00,750 --> 01:37:09,210 | that trade based on the amount of movement that it could potentially put you through. And some trades are not going to be feasible for some of you, there's |
| 450 | 01:37:09,210 --> 01:37:13,620 | some trades that I won't even take because it doesn't make sense to do it. I'll just wait for something else. |
| 451 | 01:37:25,020 --> 01:37:36,450 | All the liquidity wrestling below that low right now is flashing like, like a neon sign come down here. I want to sell to you, I'll sell it to you. Below the |
| 452 | 01:37:36,450 --> 01:37:44,520 | low at 830. At 3950 For the low there, there's real orders below that. |
| 453 | 01:37:49,860 --> 01:38:02,760 | Now you want to take that up candle at 951. Okay, that 951 I'm watching the middle of that candle. That's mean threshold. In my mind, I'm watching that |
| 454 | 01:38:02,760 --> 01:38:10,770 | thinking I don't want to see price go above that. I want to see everything that prints I want to see it stay below the middle of that candle, we'll just call it |
| 455 | 01:38:10,800 --> 01:38:21,120 | roughly 3963 even, I'm not rolling my stop to that I'm just watching it does it want to go back to that and throw it if it does that taste like 3963, then I |
| 456 | 01:38:21,120 --> 01:38:29,010 | would at that point, save my stop loss and close the trade and be content with it not worrying about whether I got right or wrong about going below that low. |
| 457 | 01:38:30,750 --> 01:38:41,340 | But as long as it stays below that 951 Candles middle point, then I would look at this as it's still likely to take out the sell zone liquidity below 830. Slow |
| 458 | 01:38:41,880 --> 01:38:50,940 | and Andy content with holding it. But a run through like it tries to run through 3963 or the middle of the 951 time candle on a one minute chart, you're watching |
| 459 | 01:38:50,940 --> 01:39:00,420 | it where to do that, then I would collapse the trade and see my stop loss and not worry about anything. Just go home. Not regret if it just tanks, it could |
| 460 | 01:39:00,420 --> 01:39:12,330 | drop the 3100 Even after that after that I would close the trade right there. I would collapse it. And I would not care at all. Whether it goes to hell or if it |
| 461 | 01:39:12,330 --> 01:39:21,210 | rips higher. Where do I stop? Because I wouldn't be in the market and I'd be done. Now think take a moment for a second. I'm not going to say anything I want |
| 462 | 01:39:21,210 --> 01:39:22,650 | you to just think about what you didn't watch |
| 463 | 01:39:28,470 --> 01:39:39,390 | was that real enough for you? Was it real enough for you? Every single candle, every single one of them outlining why it should do this or that what it |
| 464 | 01:39:39,390 --> 01:39:49,740 | shouldn't do. If it was hard for you to follow along. I know. It'll be easier when you're watching me with a chart. But understand that everything that I do, |
| 465 | 01:39:50,580 --> 01:40:01,830 | everything that I do is perfectly calculated. There's a measurement behind everything I'm doing. There's a there's a process Okay, there's no safety net |
| 466 | 01:40:01,830 --> 01:40:09,600 | out here. I don't know how many people are listening to me, and how many people are gonna watch this later on, but I can't edit this. And I can't paint those |
| 467 | 01:40:09,600 --> 01:40:21,330 | candles on your chart that happens from the market. But you just had the entire morning session outlined to you what I would do, what I would not want to see |
| 468 | 01:40:21,330 --> 01:40:29,460 | happen, how I would engage where my stop loss would be? Where would my partials be? It's exactly what you want me execute on through trading via with live data. |
| 469 | 01:40:29,790 --> 01:40:37,650 | That's not cherry picked as much as these assholes want it to be? It's not. And I'm going to be breaking all kinds of hearts all year long. |
| 470 | 01:40:42,960 --> 01:40:55,950 | I hope you report. I hope you're here for it. Because I have such amazing shit to share with you all. For free. No mentorship. So no, join my bullshit. Okay, |
| 471 | 01:40:56,130 --> 01:41:05,520 | here's my stopwatch getting round get to hit. And if it does, you'll see me say to you, this is why I would have done it. And I would be thankful that I've done |
| 472 | 01:41:05,520 --> 01:41:19,680 | what saved the stop, kept more the profit and not worry about it. Hit return rate back up into that fair value gap I gave at the 944 done, or there's that |
| 473 | 01:41:19,680 --> 01:41:29,610 | would be to be done. If I had to stop loss, I would have been stopped out there and gave up profit. Now if you know with logic, when you're likely to get |
| 474 | 01:41:29,610 --> 01:41:38,700 | stopped out and still be able to bank, open profits still are not realized yet. Doesn't it make sense for you to say okay, well, why would I just let it stop me |
| 475 | 01:41:38,700 --> 01:41:47,610 | out? That's experience. That's somebody that knows what the fuck they're doing. Okay. And there's no other way about it. Now you can look at what I'm doing |
| 476 | 01:41:47,610 --> 01:41:56,340 | today. Anybody else would have done this, they'd be out there parading it on social media, be in your chest. I'm just telling you use some fucking common |
| 477 | 01:41:56,340 --> 01:42:05,640 | sense, folks. If I don't know what I'm talking about, it would not be like this. Okay, it wouldn't be like this. So if you've been on the fence about, Oh, does |
| 478 | 01:42:05,640 --> 01:42:13,560 | he really didn't know how to do this? Or did these concepts really work? Or can you time the market? Can you read price? Can you do this? Can you do that? Man, |
| 479 | 01:42:14,010 --> 01:42:24,240 | if this doesn't communicate it to you, nothing will my live streams won't. It just means that you aren't prepared to learn. That's it, or you're a competitor |
| 480 | 01:42:24,270 --> 01:42:32,880 | and you're just hating life right now. And that's fine. That's okay. But I want you to know that there's a process that process that you're gonna have to go |
| 481 | 01:42:32,880 --> 01:42:42,060 | through, and it's going to be longer than you want it to be. It's going to take you longer to get this because you have all this baggage you're bringing to it. |
| 482 | 01:42:42,510 --> 01:42:56,160 | Oh, but I heard this guy say about SMC concepts or ICT is a fraud. He used to deliver pizza for this, I can do this every fucking day. Every single day. I can |
| 483 | 01:42:56,160 --> 01:43:06,270 | do it right in front the CFTC Yes, I can. I ain't worried about none of that shit. I ain't worried about none of it. If I couldn't do this, I sure as hell |
| 484 | 01:43:06,270 --> 01:43:15,630 | wouldn't be out here doing it. With me inviting you all to watch me fall on my face. I think if I didn't know for certain that I knew what these candlesticks |
| 485 | 01:43:15,630 --> 01:43:25,890 | were gonna do likely. Next before they do it. You think I would be out here doing this? Hell no. Nobody would. Nobody would. But everything else in the |
| 486 | 01:43:25,890 --> 01:43:40,710 | retail version of trading has perfect excuses. When their trade fails, oh, well, you know, my harmonic shark that this and that no thing didn't work today. Okay, |
| 487 | 01:43:40,770 --> 01:43:49,290 | whatever. I don't have any of that shit to worry about. I'm looking for where the orders are? What time is it? What's it likely to reach for? When will it |
| 488 | 01:43:49,290 --> 01:44:03,840 | likely fail? That's it. There's four things that you need to know with me, okay, for? Are we going up or down? What's the bias? Okay, are we going up or down? If |
| 489 | 01:44:03,840 --> 01:44:11,970 | we're going up, we're only going to go up to take out an old high or we're going to go up into an imbalance that it left a fair pay gap above market price. That |
| 490 | 01:44:11,970 --> 01:44:21,720 | is it. That's it, flip it now. If it's going down, it's going to go below an old low or it's going to go down below market price to a fair value gap where |
| 491 | 01:44:21,720 --> 01:44:34,530 | there's an inefficiency. Now think about that. Isn't that fucking easy compared to which harmonic pattern you're going to look for? The Elliot wave count? You |
| 492 | 01:44:34,530 --> 01:44:45,330 | know, come on. That's just subjective. It's subjective. you're low on your chart is not gyrating and moving around and morphing into something else. It's there. |
| 493 | 01:44:45,360 --> 01:44:55,470 | It's sitting there in time is marching forward continuously. We know there's going to be a great deal of excitement in the marketplace to do certain things |
| 494 | 01:44:55,470 --> 01:45:04,830 | at the opening price, or opening range at 930 at 830 When news drop was coming up. And you have to be able to frame a narrative, which is kind of like what I |
| 495 | 01:45:04,830 --> 01:45:12,990 | flushed out with you. That's the hard part that comes with experience, I cannot listen to me, okay. And if you're all waiting for my books, just know this |
| 496 | 01:45:12,990 --> 01:45:24,780 | before you are start chomping at the bit to buy it. I'm not going to be able to take three decades of experience and being able to map out narrative based on |
| 497 | 01:45:24,780 --> 01:45:36,210 | real time data, looking at one minute charts, I can't find a way to do this easy for you to just read a paragraph or a chapter. And this is how you do it. That's |
| 498 | 01:45:36,210 --> 01:45:46,410 | why I'm doing what I'm doing this year with you live. Because only by seeing it done outlining what I'm looking for, what factors am I mentioning, anything that |
| 499 | 01:45:46,410 --> 01:45:55,620 | I did not mention, has no fucking basis on anything today? Unless I talked about it, there was no real reach for me to do it. There's no need for me to talk |
| 500 | 01:45:55,620 --> 01:46:02,640 | about any of the other things that you think I should be talking about. Traders, Trinity. You know, what about the Judas swing? And how about the Asian range? |
| 501 | 01:46:02,640 --> 01:46:10,050 | And how many standard deviations forget all that I didn't use any of that for what I just did? I just read price. That's all I did. Very simple |
| 502 | 01:46:10,050 --> 01:46:21,360 | inefficiencies, draws on liquidity time. That's it. That's it. Now, is that not easy? I'm not saying it's easy for you to replicate what I just did. I'm not |
| 503 | 01:46:21,360 --> 01:46:30,600 | saying that. But what I just showed you, is that not easy? compared to everything else that you probably looked at and dabbled in? There's all kinds of |
| 504 | 01:46:31,020 --> 01:46:40,020 | posted bullshit that makes us money indicators. What in the heck, what indicator? Do you see me use here? Open high, low and close? And that clock time |
| 505 | 01:46:40,020 --> 01:46:50,940 | is it. I only talked about rectangles being on the chart to identify with you real time so that we can see it visually in your chart. Does this price respect |
| 506 | 01:46:50,940 --> 01:47:00,180 | that level? Does it gyrate and reach to the level I'm talking about next. And you have to feel what it feels like to watch it do that. Because it's not going |
| 507 | 01:47:00,180 --> 01:47:06,210 | to be immediate. It's not going to be Oh, I'm in the trade. So it better it better deliver fast because I'm uncomfortable with the market doesn't owe you |
| 508 | 01:47:06,240 --> 01:47:16,440 | comfort. It doesn't owe you money. You're not supposed to be able to do this folks, as much as it feels like it's just the the playground for everybody to |
| 509 | 01:47:16,470 --> 01:47:22,980 | join and have fun. And let's all membership, we just got to pay our dues to the broker and we can all get rich. That's not how this works, man. That's not how |
| 510 | 01:47:22,980 --> 01:47:31,650 | this works. This is hard. It's more. It is war. Because you're battling not only yourself, because you're going to talk yourself out of going up in that |
| 511 | 01:47:31,650 --> 01:47:40,260 | Battlefield every day. Unless you know how to do this. And how do you know how to do it? You go through the process that's boring. You read price without |
| 512 | 01:47:40,260 --> 01:47:50,400 | pushing a button. And you think to yourself, Okay, if I were in a trade right now, where would the risk be? Where would my profit potential be? Where's my |
| 513 | 01:47:50,400 --> 01:47:59,490 | partial is going to be you have to know them before they go there. Otherwise, you're doing what you're reacting. You'll Chase price with no real reason for |
| 514 | 01:47:59,490 --> 01:48:11,730 | being in it. And then any small little fluctuation every time we had a small little retracement, did you hear me freak out? No. But when it was potentially |
| 515 | 01:48:11,730 --> 01:48:22,230 | going to reverse I gave you a mindset that okay, if it does this, then I would collapse the trade and save my stop loss. Real boring monotone ICT not amped up, |
| 516 | 01:48:22,770 --> 01:48:31,230 | not heart palpitations and heavy breathing and fast. Oh, I hope you hear me say anytime. I hope it doesn't turn around. Please don't turn on me. Please don't |
| 517 | 01:48:31,230 --> 01:48:42,420 | wreck me. That's a sign and a testimony is somebody that has no idea what the fuck they're doing. If that bothers you, that offends you, I'm sorry. Okay, I'm |
| 518 | 01:48:42,420 --> 01:48:51,510 | not trying to offend you. But I'm trying to shake you by the lapels and tell you listen, okay, you have one year left with me. One year, I'm not going to do this |
| 519 | 01:48:51,540 --> 01:49:00,780 | again. If you've been on the fence with trying to learn what it is I teach, or talk rather. And when I teach presently, all you have to do is show up. It cost |
| 520 | 01:49:00,780 --> 01:49:10,110 | you nothing but the time to be here this morning. But I Guaran damn tee you nobody else on live streams did what you just saw me do. Nobody told you what |
| 521 | 01:49:10,110 --> 01:49:18,960 | was going to happen, why it was going to happen when it was going to happen and how you're going to do it. And I did not learn this from Chris Laurie. I did not |
| 522 | 01:49:18,960 --> 01:49:29,520 | learn this from Larry Williams. I did not learn this from anybody else out there. That's not beating my chest. I'm just telling you for the last fucking |
| 523 | 01:49:29,520 --> 01:49:39,930 | time. There is nobody that taught me this. I am of the character that a if they did, I'd say that person taught me. |
| 524 | 01:49:42,480 --> 01:49:52,350 | Linda Raschke okay. She's on Twitter. She doesn't have a big following. She should have a bigger following. She was a mentor to me. She gave me the |
| 525 | 01:49:52,350 --> 01:50:02,730 | foundational points about understanding where stops are. It didn't make sense to me. It didn't make sense to me. And she was Still very person and trader did pit |
| 526 | 01:50:02,730 --> 01:50:10,380 | me against my original mentor Larry Williams because Larry Williams said there is no them against you though those guys got us guys. They stopped us out, |
| 527 | 01:50:10,410 --> 01:50:20,640 | motherfucker, listen, I love you, Larry, I do I love you to death. But you're wrong. You're wrong. And Linda Raschke was the one that I read in her street |
| 528 | 01:50:20,640 --> 01:50:29,790 | smarts books, or spirit street smart book rather. Her and Larry Conners wrote that book. If you don't have that book, you should get it. Okay. I don't get a |
| 529 | 01:50:29,790 --> 01:50:39,840 | kickback. If you don't even know me probably bottom line is is that book has these little snapshot setups, okay, that a new trader can find I found that very |
| 530 | 01:50:39,840 --> 01:50:50,160 | useful, because it gave me a snapshot of what it is I should be looking for, you know, a single low stop hunt or a double low, you know, those things can be |
| 531 | 01:50:50,160 --> 01:51:01,140 | hunted. Well, even in her book, she's not targeting that. But when I saw that thing myself, Well Oh, fuck is I'm getting stopped out. There's somebody you can |
| 532 | 01:51:01,140 --> 01:51:10,920 | see that. Now I can see it is a potential bullseye. Well, I'm going to be the archer, I'm going to shoot that shit. And then once I adopt that mindset, |
| 533 | 01:51:11,790 --> 01:51:20,130 | everything started unfold like the veil lifted. I'm like, Oh, shit. I'm looking for entry patterns when I'm supposed to be looking for where's the market gonna |
| 534 | 01:51:20,130 --> 01:51:30,450 | go for? And why should it go there? It's going to hurt somebody. This market you think it's your best friend. I love the market. This market is a cruel lover. |
| 535 | 01:51:31,170 --> 01:51:47,370 | And if you don't give it everything you think a scorned woman has no measure in terms of wrath, this shit will end you. You have to give it everything, all your |
| 536 | 01:51:47,370 --> 01:51:58,710 | attention, all your attention. Even on days that the markets aren't moving, you have to do that. Because it demands it. lazy asses are not going to be able to |
| 537 | 01:51:58,710 --> 01:52:05,370 | survive in this marketplace. And especially now this is hard market conditions. You see these jokers out there talking to you? Well, you know, it's so easy. I'm |
| 538 | 01:52:05,370 --> 01:52:15,660 | smashing. I'm killing it. And making 300,000 hours a day Rafeal. Palmdale, I may have been wrong, but don't get me wrong. I think that's his name. This guy is |
| 539 | 01:52:15,660 --> 01:52:26,520 | making a million dollars every week. The fuck out of here. Okay. These markets are absolutely aggressive. They're choppy. They're very, very uncertain at |
| 540 | 01:52:26,520 --> 01:52:33,000 | times. And even for someone like me that I think I'm above average in terms of being able to read price and trade. I believe that. And I think I've |
| 541 | 01:52:33,000 --> 01:52:40,770 | communicated enough to show that I'm not average. I'm having a difficult time reading this. Usually it's like cakewalk. I've turned the chart on bang, it's |
| 542 | 01:52:40,770 --> 01:52:51,000 | there. It's easy. It's not like that, folks, I demand a whole lot of things now to get me in, like I showed you this morning. Whereas before, we have cleaner |
| 543 | 01:52:51,000 --> 01:52:58,110 | markets, it's just real easy to get in there. And we'll have that you'll see that this year. And you'll see me get my ass handed to me when I'm wrong. It's |
| 544 | 01:52:58,110 --> 01:53:04,110 | going to happen, okay, I'm going to be out there, I'm actually going to pick days where I have a tendency for that to happen, and you'll hear me go into out |
| 545 | 01:53:04,110 --> 01:53:11,640 | explain it to you. This is a day, it's difficult. I'm gonna force myself to view it in front of you. So you can see how I get it wrong. I got to I took two |
| 546 | 01:53:11,640 --> 01:53:22,080 | trades yesterday. And I lost them both on their small, I knew that the day was characteristic of me losing so you saw me do one single contract. That's what it |
| 547 | 01:53:22,080 --> 01:53:31,350 | looks like. If I if I'm looking for something that I'm trying to capitalize on, in the markets not predisposed to deliver, like I want it to guess what's going |
| 548 | 01:53:31,350 --> 01:53:45,330 | to happen, I'm gonna get stopped out. Later on in the day, I smashed it on NASDAQ killed it, murdered it the last hour murdered it. So those losses meant |
| 549 | 01:53:45,330 --> 01:53:54,480 | nothing. Now to you, as your new student, new trader and development. Never been in the marketplace before first time listen to someone like me, I'd probably |
| 550 | 01:53:54,480 --> 01:54:03,030 | sound like a nutcase. And that's fine. That's good. If you're a traitor, you already have a few screws loose anyway. Because nobody in the right fucking mind |
| 551 | 01:54:03,030 --> 01:54:12,030 | would want to do this. But guess what? You're gonna be thankful you did. You are going to be so fucking thankful that you did. Because if you learn how to do |
| 552 | 01:54:12,030 --> 01:54:24,570 | this, there ain't a job out there that pays like this. You can't find a job that pays like this kid. And you write your own checks, but it also takes from you |
| 553 | 01:54:24,570 --> 01:54:31,860 | and you need to be able to know what it feels like to lose occasionally and know that, okay, you didn't want to hurt me long term. It took something from me |
| 554 | 01:54:31,860 --> 01:54:39,030 | today. But I'm not done. And that's how you want to be able to think about it. But right now, as a new trader, you're not thinking that at all. You're |
| 555 | 01:54:39,030 --> 01:54:48,840 | thinking, I gotta avoid losing money. I gotta be able to avoid taking a loss. I gotta only do it when it's right. Because you're thinking like maybe I'm the guy |
| 556 | 01:54:49,110 --> 01:54:56,130 | or there's somebody that's if it's not me, it's somebody else is going to be creeping out of the woodwork. They know how to trade without ever taking a loss. |
| 557 | 01:54:58,320 --> 01:55:05,820 | I will take losses if I traded in environments that I know that's likely to create it. And I told you when I do get a loss, I'll show you. For bucks sake, |
| 558 | 01:55:05,820 --> 01:55:18,210 | you saw two of them yesterday. But I'm not in here trying to trade in environments where it's dicey 5050. Not every consolidation is an accumulation |
| 559 | 01:55:18,210 --> 01:55:30,600 | phase. It's not, it's this fucking job. It's time distortion. That's what you're experiencing. The algorithm is just marking time. That's it, it's not doing |
| 560 | 01:55:30,630 --> 01:55:43,920 | anything. It's waiting, then it will move. But you can't time that when it enters those phases, you have to wait. And then the market will show you its |
| 561 | 01:55:43,920 --> 01:55:52,020 | hand in a time based chart, not a range chart, not anything other than a time based chart, if anybody sits down and tells you that they're going to show you |
| 562 | 01:55:52,020 --> 01:55:59,610 | something algorithmic, and they're doing anything outside of the time based chart, turn them the fuck off, they're full of shit. Because they're going to |
| 563 | 01:55:59,610 --> 01:56:05,700 | show you a 5050 hit rate, they're going to get stopped out many times in their trades and not going to be accurate. And they're gonna be praying while they're |
| 564 | 01:56:05,700 --> 01:56:15,090 | doing their live streams and saying, I hope I'm not getting rekt you're never going to hear me talk that way. That's never gonna happen. I know what I'm |
| 565 | 01:56:15,090 --> 01:56:25,290 | looking for. It's black and white period and a story. If it's a gray area, I'm not fucking touching it. That's what experience with the real experience, the |
| 566 | 01:56:25,290 --> 01:56:37,080 | real knowledge, a real algorithmic perspective on price action, that's what you get. Not 20 Fucking trades, hoping they all pay out over leveraging when you |
| 567 | 01:56:37,080 --> 01:56:48,120 | lose, just to cheat and come back at the end of the day and make $4,000 needed. No, you didn't. But I'm here for it. Oh, I'm here for it. And I hope you're here |
| 568 | 01:56:48,120 --> 01:56:56,640 | for two, I want you to know that I have some amazing shit to share with you this year. And I promise you if you show up every day, even if you don't like this |
| 569 | 01:56:56,640 --> 01:57:03,930 | part of the stuff, the rants and stuff, you're going to need these. You're going to need them when you feel like you can't grind on and the days I'm not going to |
| 570 | 01:57:03,930 --> 01:57:11,310 | be live streaming, you're going to want to listen to this shit, because it'll keep you fired up. It will make you remember, oh, yeah, this stuff does work. |
| 571 | 01:57:11,310 --> 01:57:17,850 | But temporarily, while I'm learning, I'm going to not know what I should be doing. And I'm going to study and expect certain things in price action is not |
| 572 | 01:57:17,850 --> 01:57:23,700 | going to happen. It doesn't mean it doesn't work, it doesn't mean that I'm not going to be profitable in the future, it means that I have to defer those |
| 573 | 01:57:23,700 --> 01:57:36,330 | expectations right now while I'm learning. And that my friends is the reality check that all of you need to have. So look at your chart right now, because I'm |
| 574 | 01:57:36,330 --> 01:57:46,590 | about to close it. I timed how it was likely to not go down below the low and I said this is where my stop would be protected, I'm not going to let it take my |
| 575 | 01:57:46,590 --> 01:58:05,280 | stop would cause me to think that look at your one minute candle at 945. You see that low. draw a little line segment from that low to the right. I'm doing as I |
| 576 | 01:58:05,280 --> 01:58:19,890 | tell you is that we have now and then the low at 950. draw a little line segment to the right from that one. And now you'll see at the 954 low. How many times |
| 577 | 01:58:19,890 --> 01:58:34,950 | did it make a new low three times. Okay. So at 945 that wall was pierced and traded through to the downside on the 949 candle. See that then it created the |
| 578 | 01:58:34,950 --> 01:58:49,710 | short term low at 950. traded back up to the fair value gap I mapped out for you. And then that low formed at 950 was pierced on 953. And then at 954 I was |
| 579 | 01:58:49,710 --> 01:58:59,940 | already given indications to you go back and listen. It's there. can't edit it. I said okay, now I'm going to watch and see if that middle of that candle of |
| 580 | 01:58:59,940 --> 01:59:10,950 | what candle the up candle at 951 I said on my eyes watching the middle of that candle. I don't want to see that candle that midpoint which is mean threshold I |
| 581 | 01:59:10,950 --> 01:59:18,330 | don't want to see that traded through if it trades up through that I'm going to save my stock and hypothetically close it and it wouldn't get my stop loss and I |
| 582 | 01:59:18,330 --> 01:59:26,700 | don't give a shit if it goes down below and runs out the 30 level remember me saying that you'll hear it in the recording when it's done. I don't post these |
| 583 | 01:59:26,700 --> 01:59:32,850 | anywhere. And there's a lot of you out there that have taken them and put them on your YouTube channel and don't give a shit due to momentum. But |
| 584 | 01:59:34,530 --> 01:59:42,180 | once they're like when I'm done, this has been recorded you can play the recording for I don't know how long it does last on Twitter, but trust me, it's |
| 585 | 01:59:42,210 --> 01:59:51,150 | people are making archives of these things and that's fine. I don't care what they do with them really. But that candle at 951. I mentioned that my I was |
| 586 | 01:59:51,150 --> 02:00:04,290 | focused there because we were approaching 10 o'clock in 10 o'clock between 950 and 1010 in Net 20 minute range, there's a macro that unfolds. Okay, a macro was |
| 587 | 02:00:04,290 --> 02:00:15,870 | a short list of instructions that the algorithm will go fire through. And if it's not going to run through the low that we outlined at 830, then what is it |
| 588 | 02:00:15,870 --> 02:00:25,830 | going to do? It's going to retrace one or two, one of two things, folks. So how do I protect myself if I'm in a hypothetical short position? I've already made a |
| 589 | 02:00:25,830 --> 02:00:35,790 | disclosure publicly where my stop would have been. If I see that up, close candle, Midpoint get breached, like it does on the 955 candle. This is what you |
| 590 | 02:00:36,000 --> 02:00:44,460 | everything I'm saying, don't just listen to me, you need to be taking this information and annotating it on your chart. Otherwise, it's just a static chart |
| 591 | 02:00:44,700 --> 02:00:52,230 | that shows Oh, I was there. I watched them do that. That's, that's useless. That's fucking waste of time. You got to take what I'm saying to you here. |
| 592 | 02:00:52,920 --> 02:00:59,700 | Because you're all going to ask me two weeks down the road? How do you know when the Savior stop loss? How do you know when to collapse to trade and, and just |
| 593 | 02:00:59,700 --> 02:01:07,110 | close it, I'm showing you right here. But you're not going to do the work of annotating your chart, journaling it and putting in there because that requires |
| 594 | 02:01:07,110 --> 02:01:15,870 | what effort. And some of you are just fucking lazy. And I have students that paid me that are fucking lazy, and they cry and they say I can't do this. And I |
| 595 | 02:01:15,870 --> 02:01:23,910 | can't do that, you have to do these things. It takes work. Look how long we've been together this morning. That's time invested, watching something that you |
| 596 | 02:01:23,910 --> 02:01:36,000 | didn't make money with, except for the people that didn't short it and got my eye on you. That middle mean threshold at the middle of that candle at 951. If |
| 597 | 02:01:36,000 --> 02:01:48,270 | it pierced that like it does at 955, it's not going to run the stops, because we had three passes lower 123. And we're entering that 950 to 1010 time window. So |
| 598 | 02:01:48,270 --> 02:02:04,050 | the macro will do what it'll start spooling price north, reversing it back into a point of imbalance or stops. So there were stops above 936 high. And then our |
| 599 | 02:02:04,050 --> 02:02:11,760 | original fair value gap that we were watching as a balanced price range, it returned all the way back up into that, then is that. So you want to put a |
| 600 | 02:02:11,760 --> 02:02:25,410 | notation that the spy side resting rate above the 927? Hi, watch that one going forward. And then watch the high of the day, if you're on the high to day 4030 |
| 601 | 02:02:25,770 --> 02:02:34,380 | and 4038. And three quarters is my objective on the upside. As long as we don't run those before the last hour trading, I'll look for reasons to see if there's |
| 602 | 02:02:34,770 --> 02:02:42,030 | justification for that. I'm not saying there is one now because a lot can change between now and three o'clock. But I would look to do that type of trade unless |
| 603 | 02:02:42,030 --> 02:02:52,710 | it just completely goes up there or completely collapses. Now notice that that's a scenario. That's not a plan a plan b Look, I'm right. I'm giving you ideas, |
| 604 | 02:02:52,920 --> 02:03:03,690 | what I would look for for the pm session. That's what I prefer to see. And also told you what would negate that, okay. I'm not going to draw on a chart, |
| 605 | 02:03:03,690 --> 02:03:11,070 | scribble line up to this level and scribble down that that level, okay, and wait for that to come back. And in one of those things pan out. And he may say look |
| 606 | 02:03:11,070 --> 02:03:16,920 | at this. But if you look at the chart, it did all kinds of things like a heart attack between that point of where you thought it was gonna go upside and |
| 607 | 02:03:16,920 --> 02:03:24,780 | downside, you would have been stopped out and needed to execute on anything. So what benefit is that? Well, how can you learn from that? Nobody's learned shit |
| 608 | 02:03:24,780 --> 02:03:33,990 | from that. So that's why I don't do that. I execute, using the logic that I teach. When I just show a static chart. I have people pitching to me. Oh, it's |
| 609 | 02:03:33,990 --> 02:03:40,590 | hindsight. And then when I actually trade the chart using the logic I'm teaching, oh, why? What's the purpose of seeing this over and over again? Are |
| 610 | 02:03:40,590 --> 02:03:50,880 | you just bragging use beat new cherry pick trades in free, you need to lose that train of thought, put that shit aside. If you're here to learn, stop all that |
| 611 | 02:03:50,880 --> 02:03:57,930 | bullshit. And just sit down and take notes and watch and listen to what I'm saying. Because everything I'm bloviating about is what the logic is that I'm |
| 612 | 02:03:57,930 --> 02:04:12,270 | using to do it. If there's no real logic behind it, it won't work. But you see it working over and over how many fucking days in a row now, how's it been? |
| 613 | 02:04:13,080 --> 02:04:24,810 | Remember, I was supposed to start on February 7. I've been with you since day one. Day one, every single week, every single day, and it won't stop. Every day. |
| 614 | 02:04:24,810 --> 02:04:31,950 | There's a run on liquidity every single day, all you have to do is identify that based on time. You'll find your five handles there, and you don't need to have |
| 615 | 02:04:31,950 --> 02:04:42,750 | your full target reached. Don't listen to these clowns that say you got to have a multiple of 20 Or are you got to have three to one. You don't need to have |
| 616 | 02:04:42,750 --> 02:04:53,250 | three to one. You don't. If you know what you're looking for. You can make money with one to one risk and you'll get lots of those setups over and over and over |
| 617 | 02:04:53,250 --> 02:05:06,780 | again. I can smash these 20 or 100 arbitrators and do it with just one to one ratios. because I can get 50 trades in a day on a 15 second chart, and level |
| 618 | 02:05:06,780 --> 02:05:20,640 | them using the same thing I taught you in 2022. On YouTube, that model exists on the 15 second chart and the 32nd chart dozens of times in a day. That's what |
| 619 | 02:05:20,640 --> 02:05:29,940 | high frequency algorithms are taking advantage of those minor little fluctuations, because they're pushing volume through that big volume, jamming it |
| 620 | 02:05:29,940 --> 02:05:42,180 | in, they look at the boom. And all I'm doing is looking when those instances are likely to be unfolding, then I know I'm on site, there orders are not pushing |
| 621 | 02:05:42,180 --> 02:05:48,330 | the price higher and lower. The algorithms going to go to that price, whether there's enough trades behind it or not. And that's what you don't understand. |
| 622 | 02:05:49,560 --> 02:05:58,740 | And that's what I get. I've been trading for 50 years, this guy scholarship, well come out here and do it like I just did. map it out every minute, every |
| 623 | 02:05:58,740 --> 02:06:10,050 | fucking minute candle every single minute candle, you explain why it's going to do is going to do? No, you're not going to do that. This is where you start. And |
| 624 | 02:06:10,050 --> 02:06:20,400 | in the year, you're going to be seeing evidence with me and in your own phenomenal position. Fucking off the charts precision shit that repeats over and |
| 625 | 02:06:20,400 --> 02:06:31,380 | over and over again. And nothing is stopping you from learning this except for you. That's it, nothing stopping you. What's it going to be an impediment? Time |
| 626 | 02:06:31,410 --> 02:06:39,750 | you can watch the shit later on, it's still gonna be the same lesson. What's the difference? If you watch a recording of me doing it live? You didn't make it |
| 627 | 02:06:39,750 --> 02:06:48,150 | there. You couldn't see because you're running a business, you're going to school, you can't be up. You gotta go to work. Okay, watch the recordings. |
| 628 | 02:06:49,620 --> 02:06:58,800 | Because it's better than Market Replay on trading view, which is stilted, it's like, you don't see the candles continuously painting. Okay, you can't, you |
| 629 | 02:06:58,800 --> 02:07:07,680 | can't appreciate the delivery of price the same way. But you'll watch my recording of that. And you'll be able to have that same experience just like you |
| 630 | 02:07:07,680 --> 02:07:16,260 | were there. And those same videos, we will be able to go back to and re watch them and study over and over again. Listen to what I'm saying at the time. I'm |
| 631 | 02:07:16,260 --> 02:07:24,690 | saying what I shouldn't see what I should see what you should be feeling right now about why price is doing this or doing that. That is experience, folks. You |
| 632 | 02:07:24,690 --> 02:07:32,010 | can't get that from a book. There's no way I'm parroting what I'm hearing somebody else say right now. But you're gonna hear everybody else parrot what |
| 633 | 02:07:32,010 --> 02:07:44,880 | I'm gonna say. I want you to do well. I want you to fucking be so successful and happy you made this decision. I'm doing everything I possibly can except for |
| 634 | 02:07:44,880 --> 02:07:53,850 | putting you in the fucking trades. And I'm not going to do that. The app pupil spending weeks and months with me throughout this year, you're gonna start |
| 635 | 02:07:53,850 --> 02:08:03,600 | seeing them without me mentioning it. And when you make money, who's whose credit is yours. But when you make a mistake, and you do something you're not |
| 636 | 02:08:03,600 --> 02:08:16,560 | supposed to do? Who owns that? You some of you are still at that stage right now where you still want it to be able to be my fault if you fail. It's never my |
| 637 | 02:08:16,560 --> 02:08:25,380 | fault. It's never my fault. I've never told you to push a button to get into a trade. And I didn't distract you from the study time that you should have put |
| 638 | 02:08:25,380 --> 02:08:39,960 | in. So it's on you. I'm making it. It's it's except it's a tongue twister. It is never been as accessible as it's going to be this year. |
| 639 | 02:08:42,030 --> 02:08:50,340 | You don't have to pay me. You don't have to love me. You don't have to congratulate me. And I'm turning the comment section off because I'm tired of |
| 640 | 02:08:50,340 --> 02:09:00,750 | seeing the love fest. Okay. It's sickening. It's sickening. I appreciate it. I love it. But I don't want that. To have those comment sections open my YouTube |
| 641 | 02:09:00,750 --> 02:09:09,870 | videos. Looks like I want that as praise. I don't want it. Don't call me King. Don't call me the goat. Don't call me the greatest of all times. None of that |
| 642 | 02:09:09,870 --> 02:09:18,840 | shit. I'm Michael I'm ICT that's it goes to the machine. I'm what makes this shit move around. And I'm gonna prove it to you this year. I'm gonna call every |
| 643 | 02:09:18,840 --> 02:09:24,960 | single fucking minute candle right in front of you. I'm gonna outline every single thing, why it should do this and why shouldn't do that. And I'm also |
| 644 | 02:09:24,960 --> 02:09:32,100 | going to tell you, when my algorithm will not perform like it should because there's other things going on. There's a hand behind this, that you won't see. |
| 645 | 02:09:32,460 --> 02:09:40,230 | But I'm going to show you I'm gonna peel back that Bill and say this is where they're going to be doing shit that you don't want to be participating in. And |
| 646 | 02:09:40,230 --> 02:09:51,780 | that's one of them today. CPI, you can't be in there. You can't because if you don't know what you're doing is going to wreck you. And it can take a whole I |
| 647 | 02:09:51,780 --> 02:10:02,310 | mean this was a kind of like a little bit of a muted CPI performance today. Like I was expecting a whole lot more and It's really kind of boring actually. It's |
| 648 | 02:10:02,310 --> 02:10:10,260 | kind of like, what nonfarm payroll used to be for us in the 90s. And it moved around a lot. We don't have that much. I mean, last Friday was amazing. It's |
| 649 | 02:10:10,290 --> 02:10:19,350 | awesome. went way beyond what I thought I was going to do. But generally, they're not like that. It's like, a little bit of flurry of something, and then |
| 650 | 02:10:19,350 --> 02:10:28,710 | it just dissipates. This is not, you know, it's not showing me much at all right now. And I would prefer to close the charts, which is what I'm gonna invite you |
| 651 | 02:10:28,710 --> 02:10:37,950 | to do the same thing, close your charts, and start looking at it around two o'clock 230. And watch and see what liquidity pools with short term high on a |
| 652 | 02:10:37,950 --> 02:10:47,490 | five minute, one minute I'm sorry, five and a 15 minute chart with short term highs and lows exist in price, looking back to the left, between two o'clock and |
| 653 | 02:10:47,490 --> 02:10:57,030 | three o'clock. Okay, look for that. And whichever one of those that you see, start studying which one it gravitates towards? What liquidity pool is it going |
| 654 | 02:10:57,030 --> 02:11:07,110 | to reach for? That happens every single day? Every day? No, like, I just look for small little fair value got the work within your I should jump right to it |
| 655 | 02:11:07,620 --> 02:11:15,090 | and see what your thinking is? How do I trust the fair value? I can see it but I'm afraid if I get in there, it's gonna keep going against me. That's part of |
| 656 | 02:11:15,090 --> 02:11:23,790 | trading. That's why you have to have a stoploss. If I knew for certain that it wasn't going to go below above a certain high and there was no way that I could |
| 657 | 02:11:23,790 --> 02:11:33,510 | be wrong about it. I wouldn't trade without stop loss. I would fall margin every trade with no stop loss. Who the fuck wouldn't do that. But because we can't |
| 658 | 02:11:33,510 --> 02:11:43,590 | know that. Why? Because there's a hand in this industry that will make a move sometimes when nobody expects it. So you have to protect yourself. They caught |
| 659 | 02:11:43,590 --> 02:11:52,200 | the the flash crashes, they're not flash crashes, they're all engineered. And people fall victim as the scapegoat is why it happened. That's not how it works, |
| 660 | 02:11:52,200 --> 02:12:04,800 | folks. But you'll eat it up and believe it because it's perfect excuse to oh, that's why happened. Okay, businesses use what's going on. Just understand that |
| 661 | 02:12:04,800 --> 02:12:18,570 | you're not supposed to make money with this. You're not it was not designed for you to be a participant in it. You are the cattle. You are the sheep that these |
| 662 | 02:12:18,570 --> 02:12:27,570 | books in educators that regurgitate the nonsense that comes out of them. They're the Judas goat that you follow right into the slaughterhouse and you don't even |
| 663 | 02:12:27,570 --> 02:12:36,840 | realize it. You've never stopped to think about the logic that you're learning is the very shit that puts you in that situation. So if you turn it upside down, |
| 664 | 02:12:38,130 --> 02:12:48,030 | think about it backwards. Because if that crowd keeps doing the same shit all the time, and 90% Club loses. Doesn't it make sense? I mean, think about it. I |
| 665 | 02:12:48,030 --> 02:12:57,240 | wish I would have seen this sooner as a new student and trading and listen to these fucking people I wasted time and money on binary horseshit. I wish I would |
| 666 | 02:12:57,240 --> 02:13:13,050 | just reversed everything they said and stated everything. I would have been 90% club right away it's produced for misinformation. And nobody can say that you |
| 667 | 02:13:13,050 --> 02:13:22,200 | didn't see the shit unfold like it did. I outlined it I told you why it should do this. Why it shouldn't do this on the smallest timeframe that most of you can |
| 668 | 02:13:22,200 --> 02:13:40,860 | do with a one minute chart. Goldman Sachs alumni is our own video. You can still see it on YouTube. If anybody tells you they can time the market and trade with |
| 669 | 02:13:40,860 --> 02:13:55,500 | intraday charts. I'm promise you, I promise you they're a con man run away from them. Really? Really, that's fucking awesome. Because you just made me a |
| 670 | 02:13:55,500 --> 02:14:04,560 | superstar. By default, you just made me a superstar. All I gotta do is keep doing what I'm doing. And you're Goldman Sachs. You're the you're the guys that |
| 671 | 02:14:04,560 --> 02:14:15,180 | are supposed to know this shit, but you don't know anything. You know nothing about price. Listen, folks, the professionals that you think are professional, |
| 672 | 02:14:15,210 --> 02:14:27,870 | and they have all the answers and shit. They don't. It's the people out here that are kicking, bucking ass doing in the charts, making liars out of all the |
| 673 | 02:14:27,870 --> 02:14:34,860 | other bullshit that's out there. That's the Mavericks. You want to listen to the people that can get up there and literally roll their sleeves up and say, Fuck |
| 674 | 02:14:34,860 --> 02:14:47,370 | the bullshit. This is what really goes on watch me roll. That's how you determine who's who. I have no problem with someone teaching with a hindsight |
| 675 | 02:14:47,370 --> 02:14:57,210 | chart. I've done it for a long, long time. It's beneficial. You need to start somewhere. I have no problem with someone teaching in a demo account. No, I have |
| 676 | 02:14:57,210 --> 02:15:04,170 | no problem with that. Because if the logic is sound and you'll do Don't know if there's sound logic, but the problem is, is in this culture today, everywhere |
| 677 | 02:15:04,170 --> 02:15:12,780 | globally, you are fucking lazy. And you expect everything given to you for free. Like you're like I'm obligated and everybody else that wants to teach something |
| 678 | 02:15:13,140 --> 02:15:21,600 | is obligated to cater to you. You got to wake up realize the world isn't like that. You have to roll your sleeves up and do some work. And sometimes it's |
| 679 | 02:15:21,600 --> 02:15:29,220 | going to take longer than you want to. And that's okay. It's a good fucking thing. Because when you get through it, you're gonna feel like I did it. I feel |
| 680 | 02:15:29,220 --> 02:15:38,940 | good. I got through the shit. Now I know exactly what the hell I'm doing. No one can take that from you. You earned that shit. You didn't purchase it. You |
| 681 | 02:15:38,940 --> 02:15:47,010 | fucking earned it when people join my mentorship. Guess what? It didn't obligate me to fucking make you perfect. It meant that you now are a part of a crew that |
| 682 | 02:15:47,010 --> 02:15:54,660 | has to work their fucking ass off. And guess what if you didn't do what you're told to do, and you fell Get your ass up off the ground and start working |
| 683 | 02:15:54,660 --> 02:16:03,780 | harder. Look around folks. People are fucking making real money. Okay, not demo dollars, not Market Replay horseshit and reporting at the end of the day. This |
| 684 | 02:16:03,780 --> 02:16:13,350 | is what I would have made stop that shit. How much are you putting in the bank? How much are you fucking spending? How much is your fucking broker give you this |
| 685 | 02:16:13,350 --> 02:16:24,060 | month? That's the language you need start talking about? Market Replay reports. Fuck that bullshit. We're past all that. You have to know how to do this, folks, |
| 686 | 02:16:24,090 --> 02:16:32,580 | your bills don't get paid. With hindsight, cherry picked, bullshit Market Replay trades. It doesn't work that way. And you can get encouraged in the beginning. |
| 687 | 02:16:32,610 --> 02:16:41,040 | That's that's fine. But you got to gravitate to what the real shit is. What makes these markets really move and you can get tricked into thinking you know |
| 688 | 02:16:41,040 --> 02:16:52,140 | something that you really don't before you think you know it. There's a whole lot of balancing act that goes along with becoming a trader. And you don't even |
| 689 | 02:16:52,140 --> 02:16:58,440 | realize what those things are yet. You have no idea what it feels like to have 10 winning trades in a row. You're going to feel like you've figured it all out. |
| 690 | 02:16:58,500 --> 02:17:07,470 | I don't need any more study. Should I know how to do this. Let me get my mouth count started. Worst thing you could ever done. I'm glad I lost money on my very |
| 691 | 02:17:07,470 --> 02:17:16,410 | first live trade. I'm glad it lost 50% Because that woke me to fuck up. Oh shit. This takes me a lot more effort and time I thought I figured it out. I was I've |
| 692 | 02:17:16,410 --> 02:17:28,860 | read through a book 100 pages. I figured shit I got this figured out now. No, I had no idea what I was doing. 99 to one was a year of awakening for me. I |
| 693 | 02:17:28,860 --> 02:17:39,540 | thought I was up to snuff, despite reading one poorly written book. And the worst thing you can do is watch my videos one time and think you're ready |
| 694 | 02:17:39,540 --> 02:17:48,840 | because you're not. You have to put yourself in front of charts like I forced you and put your nose right in the charts and said, Look at this. Look at this |
| 695 | 02:17:48,840 --> 02:17:58,530 | right here. Do what you're supposed to be focusing on nothing else. Not the previous day's high and low. Not a breaker over here. What's this commitment |
| 696 | 02:17:58,530 --> 02:18:08,160 | traders report I took you right to the heart of the matter right now. And for some of you is probably difficult to follow along, and others are like this is |
| 697 | 02:18:08,160 --> 02:18:14,370 | fucking great. This is exactly what I've been waiting for. Yes, that's the crowd I'm preaching to this year, because you've done the work and you're just waiting |
| 698 | 02:18:14,370 --> 02:18:22,110 | for that next threshold to reach some of you that are brand new, it's still going to be challenging for you. I'm aware of that. And you should be |
| 699 | 02:18:22,500 --> 02:18:30,660 | identifying that. preparing yourself for it. Just because I'm going to be in front of you with a live chart does not mean it's all going to be Oh, I figured |
| 700 | 02:18:30,660 --> 02:18:37,770 | it out. I know how to do it now. It takes time doing it. And when I'm not doing it, you need to be doing it. |
| 701 | 02:18:40,619 --> 02:18:52,019 | And you need to love doing it. It needs to be almost like meditation for you to sit and observe and watch price paint. Because your brain will identify things |
| 702 | 02:18:52,019 --> 02:19:02,489 | that are reoccurring over and over and over again. I don't know if your eye for the fair value gap is your model. I don't know that. You might see breakers as |
| 703 | 02:19:02,489 --> 02:19:14,669 | your pattern. You might see optimal trade entries, border blocks. That might be the thing for you. Turtle Soup sells turtle soup Long's institutional order flow |
| 704 | 02:19:14,669 --> 02:19:21,119 | entry drill, I have lots of tools to get me into a move. I'm never going to be short on a way to get into a move when I know the moves there. I'm getting it |
| 705 | 02:19:22,679 --> 02:19:30,629 | into an untrained eye. When you look at my trades, if I showed just a little arrows Oh, you're chasing price. The fuck out of here. You don't even know if |
| 706 | 02:19:30,629 --> 02:19:40,349 | you're talking about. I'm gonna get in here and show you every single week examples of what a neophyte would say is chasing price, but you're gonna know at |
| 707 | 02:19:40,349 --> 02:19:49,619 | the end of the year, how that is horseshit. There's 100% measurable risk in that. You'll know why it shouldn't do certain like you want me to do it should |
| 708 | 02:19:49,619 --> 02:20:01,469 | not do this. It should not go beyond this. It's like I'm walking this shit on its leash. And you still doubt me? It doesn't matter. It does not matter who |
| 709 | 02:20:01,469 --> 02:20:11,009 | believes what you're learning is real or not. All it matters is does it benefit you? Are you learning, because if that's all that you focus on right now, and |
| 710 | 02:20:11,009 --> 02:20:19,229 | you grow in your understanding each day, and you're seeing it work, you're seeing proof of it, folks. This is not after the fact horseshit. This stuff |
| 711 | 02:20:19,229 --> 02:20:27,629 | happens every day, it's a beautiful opportunity for you to have a laboratory experiment for yourself, to observe what price is doing, and you log that. And |
| 712 | 02:20:27,629 --> 02:20:36,269 | the best advice, the best advice I can give you, an investment that you can make in yourself, is to get a screen recording process for you. So even if you're not |
| 713 | 02:20:36,269 --> 02:20:44,429 | in the markets live, like if you're like if you're at school, or if you're running a business, or you're working, if anything that prevents you from |
| 714 | 02:20:44,429 --> 02:20:52,649 | watching price action in the London session and in the New York session in the afternoon, pm session for equities, then you should record and there Honestly, |
| 715 | 02:20:52,649 --> 02:21:00,149 | even if you can't do it live, watch it, you should record it every day. Just let it run for two hours in the morning, and let it run for you know, an hour and a |
| 716 | 02:21:00,149 --> 02:21:10,979 | half in the evening, and three o'clock to 415 or whatever. record that show a one and five minute chart side by side. It's a small little investment. Okay, |
| 717 | 02:21:11,009 --> 02:21:21,569 | like 100 some dollars. So thank you, I use Camtasia from trades, and I'm sorry, techsmith.com techsmith.com. I use Camtasia as a recording program. I love it. |
| 718 | 02:21:21,599 --> 02:21:32,099 | I've used it for a long time when I first started doing videos for focus on baby steps years ago, 2012. It's just, it's an easy process that to record it, you |
| 719 | 02:21:32,099 --> 02:21:44,069 | can edit everything and zoom into certain areas that you think are useful for you. And then record that. Do a a descriptive title to us that we know what you |
| 720 | 02:21:44,069 --> 02:21:51,389 | recorded the date, time to market you were doing and what your focus about that was and then log that that's better than a trade journal. That's the best |
| 721 | 02:21:51,389 --> 02:21:59,039 | fucking journal. Because in that chart in that recording, you're going to have your own annotation. So you can watch it, you can literally watch it, upload it |
| 722 | 02:21:59,039 --> 02:22:07,199 | to your own personal YouTube channel and watch it right in the living room or your family room or when you're on the go. If you're sitting in, like I have, my |
| 723 | 02:22:07,199 --> 02:22:14,249 | son's having surgery Friday, and I have to have something to distract me while I'm waiting for him to come out. Well, this would be something like if you had |
| 724 | 02:22:14,249 --> 02:22:19,679 | something that uncomfortable, you're waiting into motor vehicles waiting for some bullshit number to be called because you have to be waiting on something, |
| 725 | 02:22:20,009 --> 02:22:27,809 | you're waiting for your oil change, you can watch it on your phone, and you can hear your own annotations being spoken and watch the price action. So you're not |
| 726 | 02:22:27,809 --> 02:22:36,779 | wasting time sitting around watching Netflix and fucking off. You're constantly pouring this into yourself, you're investing in yourself. Don't waste time, |
| 727 | 02:22:37,199 --> 02:22:47,189 | don't waste time you got one year to do all the right things. Because let me tell you some. If you don't know what's going on right now, just take a look and |
| 728 | 02:22:47,189 --> 02:22:55,409 | step back and look around. See it's getting real expensive, things are getting hard to get foods getting really stupid, and it's gonna get worse. And I'm gonna |
| 729 | 02:22:55,409 --> 02:23:02,309 | have a clean conscience. And this year, I've done everything I humanly possibly can to improve the likelihood of you doing better than the average person. |
| 730 | 02:23:02,669 --> 02:23:08,969 | Because the average person is going to be suffering. They're going to be suffering in the next 12 months, it's gonna get real hard. And that's all I'm |
| 731 | 02:23:08,969 --> 02:23:16,949 | gonna say here now. But you need to prepare yourself, make sure you have a secondary income or complete replacement of because your job may be redundant. |
| 732 | 02:23:16,979 --> 02:23:24,029 | There's nothing guaranteed that your jobs gonna be there tomorrow, next week, you know, six months from now. I have so many students that have come to me and |
| 733 | 02:23:24,029 --> 02:23:31,379 | say, you know, I was working I thought I was doing really great with this Acme said I'm redundant. They can't use me anymore. What the hell? Yeah. Are you |
| 734 | 02:23:31,379 --> 02:23:39,869 | prepared for that? Are you fucking prepared for that? Most people aren't. You're walking around like a zombie thinking, Okay, well, and use the same thing I do |
| 735 | 02:23:39,869 --> 02:23:49,349 | every single day, go to work, do the same thing. I get paid in a week, or every two weeks. And you think that they need you, they don't fucking need you. They |
| 736 | 02:23:49,349 --> 02:23:59,219 | don't need you. They need you right now. Like, I need some fucking lunch because I'm starving. But I don't, you know, I don't want you thinking that you're |
| 737 | 02:23:59,309 --> 02:24:07,799 | replaceable because they don't need to replace you, they can just get rid of you and save the money. And companies are gonna start doing that aggressively right |
| 738 | 02:24:07,799 --> 02:24:18,419 | now. Because there's a turning point that we're getting enter. And it's going to be uncomfortable. really uncomfortable. It's gonna be uncomfortable even for |
| 739 | 02:24:18,419 --> 02:24:35,189 | people like me to have money. Having money in the bank is not protection. But there is no alternative. Cash has gone away. And you need to preserve what you |
| 740 | 02:24:35,189 --> 02:24:45,419 | can build what you can and procure as much as you can, in terms of resources, things for your home, and make make your house ready as best you can. Because |
| 741 | 02:24:45,419 --> 02:24:58,319 | we're going to enter some real tough shit. And I don't have the answers. And I don't want to be criticized for not dealing at least this much. And I think it's |
| 742 | 02:24:58,319 --> 02:25:11,969 | outside the realm of reasonable, given how the Lord's blessed me, and I made a deal, and I'm doing it, I'm living up to my end of the bargain. If you open my |
| 743 | 02:25:11,969 --> 02:25:24,449 | eyes up to this, I would spend the rest of my life teaching, and I am. But I'm doing more doing more than I ever did ever. This year, I'm sitting with you in |
| 744 | 02:25:24,449 --> 02:25:32,939 | live data, something that swore I would never do. Because I know some of you that are running signal services, or mentorships, or whatever, you're going to |
| 745 | 02:25:32,939 --> 02:25:40,409 | be listening to what I'm saying. And I'm in your headphones. And you're going to try very hard to keep up and say whatever I'm saying. So your viewers that don't |
| 746 | 02:25:40,409 --> 02:25:48,809 | know me, think that you're smart. That's okay. I don't care this year, you can take advantage of me, I don't care. I don't care that people are taking my |
| 747 | 02:25:49,499 --> 02:25:57,119 | spaces and putting up there and on their YouTube channels and monetizing I don't care, I'm not going to put a takedown notice against that. I don't care. My |
| 748 | 02:25:57,119 --> 02:26:08,819 | focus is right in front of me. It's you. All I'm trying to do is help you. I'm not trying to be your friend. I'm not trying to have a worshiper, a new cult |
| 749 | 02:26:08,819 --> 02:26:16,559 | member, I don't want any of that kind of shit. I just want you to understand that I don't have to do this. And just appreciate the fact that I'm willing to |
| 750 | 02:26:16,559 --> 02:26:28,829 | do it. And your currency is paying attention. Earnestly paying attention, taking notes, and doing the best you can to keep up. That's all. There's no rush, all |
| 751 | 02:26:28,829 --> 02:26:34,859 | the things, all the things I'm producing, are not going to be deleted on my channel, I'm not going to take down the mentorship videos, I'm not going to |
| 752 | 02:26:34,859 --> 02:26:47,759 | delete any of it. Nothing is coming down. It's increasing the volume in the library is going to increase. That's there's no need for you to worry. But you |
| 753 | 02:26:47,759 --> 02:26:59,189 | have to show up. If you if you skip a day, watch the recordings, listen to the recordings. Keep it in you constantly. It's only one year, folks one year and I |
| 754 | 02:26:59,189 --> 02:27:07,109 | promise you to transformation at the end of this year, you're gonna feel so glad you put yourself through it. But you're gonna have periods where this is too |
| 755 | 02:27:07,109 --> 02:27:17,219 | much. Or I've had enough. I don't like this guy's personality. He cusses too much. Well, I'm sorry, I wish I couldn't wish I had a better way of controlling |
| 756 | 02:27:17,219 --> 02:27:28,379 | my tongue. But when I get angry or passionate, or just you know, worked up like I'm hyped up. I know what some of you are going to be able to do. You just seen |
| 757 | 02:27:28,379 --> 02:27:35,849 | a young man make a quarter million dollars last year, quarter million dollars. How many you fucking clowns that talk shit about me made a quarter million |
| 758 | 02:27:35,849 --> 02:27:47,459 | dollars last year. Hello. That's the real real shit there. So I don't know who you want to listen to somebody that's making that. And in students that really |
| 759 | 02:27:47,459 --> 02:27:58,049 | put the work in, he earned that shit. I didn't tell him what trades to get into. All on his own, carved out a niche. And now if he comes up with a course to show |
| 760 | 02:27:58,049 --> 02:28:06,089 | you how he did it, and this is the method that he did, how he got funded and how he worked with different accounts and companies that do that. In my opinion, |
| 761 | 02:28:06,119 --> 02:28:17,699 | that shit would sell like hotcakes. And all of you have the same opportunity. He did all I asked for if I had a small part. It just gave me a Nazi. Thank you. |
| 762 | 02:28:17,729 --> 02:28:26,159 | That's it, and I will lift you up. I'll lift you up. I'll put a spotlight right on it. Boom, there you go. You earned that shit. You did it. |
| 763 | 02:28:27,630 --> 02:28:35,160 | There was no communication privately nobody. It traded for him. I got a guy literally send me a fucking email said you traded his accounts for him and uses |
| 764 | 02:28:35,160 --> 02:28:42,930 | on marketing. Are you out of your fucking mind? Seriously, that young man did that on his own, to be quite honest with you. I didn't know him from Adam until |
| 765 | 02:28:43,410 --> 02:28:54,570 | that that interview where he did like $20,000 withdrawal. I was impressed with just that. Then I'm looking at his Twitter and he says he's done to earn 50,000 |
| 766 | 02:28:54,570 --> 02:29:03,870 | hours an hour. What the hell? How can I miss this guy? How can you all tell me about him? Come on. So but I have lots of students that are private like that. |
| 767 | 02:29:04,290 --> 02:29:10,710 | They don't want to be out there. And I know some of you young guys do. That's great. But you're still gonna get trolled. People are gonna be upset because |
| 768 | 02:29:10,710 --> 02:29:22,080 | you're doing something they can't do. Their service can't live up to their results are nowhere near and guess what? Smile and leave. Smiling we've and |
| 769 | 02:29:22,080 --> 02:29:30,720 | relish in all of it because that's success. Because you're going to have people always biting at your ass when you're doing it well, better than anybody else. |
| 770 | 02:29:31,320 --> 02:29:46,050 | But guess what? The view never changes when you're in the lead. It's always the same opportunity of new money. Always it's the same way. For them, it never |
| 771 | 02:29:46,050 --> 02:29:56,580 | changes because they're always looking at what you've done, and not what they can do. You're in their way. Think about that. If they're hating on you, they |
| 772 | 02:29:56,580 --> 02:30:06,840 | know that you're going to do well. They're trying to distract you for doing this. Think folks, there are some stupid asses out there that are just trying to |
| 773 | 02:30:06,840 --> 02:30:15,840 | make a name for themselves. When they talk about me, whatever I do my students, they're clowns, okay. But there are real people out there. And they're gonna see |
| 774 | 02:30:15,840 --> 02:30:26,790 | more of them this year, because as I'm doing this, this is becoming mainstream. It's accessible to all of you. And you're going to see campaigns to smear me, |
| 775 | 02:30:26,970 --> 02:30:35,280 | what I've done, what you are going to do what you're learning, all that is going to be meant to distract you. Keep your focus on what I'm teaching you. |
| 776 | 02:30:36,480 --> 02:30:48,030 | Everything else is horseshit. Everything else can anybody take you and pull you to the side and say, You didn't watch me outline this this morning. Nobody can |
| 777 | 02:30:48,030 --> 02:30:55,710 | do that. Now. Nobody can take that experience away from you. And you all have doubted me would have had that experience if you just would have did the work |
| 778 | 02:30:55,710 --> 02:31:05,820 | yourself. And that's why I'm doing it this year, I'm removing any doubt, no confusion. It's still gonna require a lot of work and effort. But you're not |
| 779 | 02:31:05,820 --> 02:31:17,190 | going to have an outwear Oh, it's cherry picked, oh time site. He never shows us this. He never shows us that. I've never seen any mentor ever, ever explain |
| 780 | 02:31:17,220 --> 02:31:27,840 | every single one minute candle. before it happens and why it should happen. I've never seen that. You're gonna have more people doing it now. Because I'm |
| 781 | 02:31:27,840 --> 02:31:35,610 | teaching you and my students will be able to do that same skill set. And I'm loving it. I want to see it. I want to subscribe to your channel I want to I |
| 782 | 02:31:35,610 --> 02:31:45,810 | want to support you. There's nothing wrong with that. I've never been against people using what I've taught and making a name for themselves. I just don't |
| 783 | 02:31:45,810 --> 02:31:56,490 | like when they teach my shit rename it and give new credit to it. Because the Lord Himself gave me this and if that makes you choke because you believe in |
| 784 | 02:31:56,490 --> 02:32:08,910 | something other than what I believe in, I'm not apologizing. On that note, hope you found it insightful hope you found it. helpful in the sense that you know |
| 785 | 02:32:08,910 --> 02:32:18,630 | where you're going which direction we're going to take us community this year and at least found another way of seeing proof behind it all. Until next time, |
| 786 | 02:32:19,530 --> 02:32:19,950 | be safe |