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Changes for page ICT Mentorship 2023 Gems

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-09-04 11:48
From version 4.1
edited by Drunk Monkey
on 2023-09-03 08:14
Change comment: There is no comment for this version
To version 10.3
edited by Drunk Monkey
on 2023-09-03 15:13
Change comment: There is no comment for this version

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1 1  {{box cssClass="box floatinginfobox" title="**Table of Contents**"}}
2 -{{toc depth="5" numbered="true" start="2"/}}
2 +{{toc depth="3" numbered="true" start="2"/}}
3 3  {{/box}}
4 4  
5 -Summarized by [[@SirPickle_>>https://twitter.com/SirPickle_]] as a google document [[here>>https://docs.google.com/document/d/14x_13c98oq3u-FrVWK3Nh9gGLYKzBzgLgBRTdgOBAhs]]
5 +Summarized by [[@SirPickle_>>https://twitter.com/SirPickle_]] as a google document [[here>>https://docs.google.com/document/d/14x_13c98oq3u-FrVWK3Nh9gGLYKzBzgLgBRTdgOBAhs]]
6 6  
7 7  == 1:30 Judas ==
8 8  
... ... @@ -20,118 +20,432 @@
20 20  
21 21  ==== ES 1m ====
22 22  
23 +* AM session buy stops ran
24 +* RELs are the draw
25 +* MSS + Displacement
26 +* Short entry in the FVG
27 +
28 +[[image:image17.png]]
29 +
23 23  === Example 3 ===
24 24  
25 25  ==== ES 1m ====
26 26  
34 +* High of day (HOD) Buy-side was swept and had a MSS + Displacement
35 +* We look for a Judas Swing at 1:30pm into a premium PD Array
36 +* Today that PD Array was a 1min FVG
37 +* Could not get fill in the FVG so entry on the VIB
38 +
39 +[[image:image23.png]]
40 +
27 27  === Example 4 ===
28 28  
29 29  ==== ES 1m ====
30 30  
45 +* Lunch SSL swept and we had a MSS+Displacement (2022 model)
46 +* DXY rejecting Daily OB means we should see higher prices in ES
47 +* Unicorn setup provided entry at accumulation phase
48 +* We look for Judas Swing at 1:30pm into a discount PD array (+OB offered entry at re-accumulation phase of the {{glossaryReference glossaryId="Glossary" entryId="MMBM"}}MMBM{{/glossaryReference}})
49 +
50 +[[image:image13.png]]
51 +
52 +==== DXY 15m ====
53 +
54 +[[image:image15.png]]
55 +
31 31  === Example 5 ===
32 32  
33 33  ==== NQ 5m ====
34 34  
60 +* With the idea that price is drawing towards REL (12457.25), we look for a Judas Swing at 1:30pm into a premium PD array.
61 +* Today that PD array was a 5m unicorn (Breaker+ FVG)
62 +
63 +[[image:image49.png]]
64 +
65 +==== NQ 1m ====
66 +
67 +[[image:image33.png]]
68 +
35 35  === Example 6 ===
36 36  
37 37  ==== ES 2m ====
38 38  
73 +* Shorts been in control all week = expect short coverings going into the weekend
74 +* We look for a Judas Swing at 1:30pm into a discount PD Array
75 +* Today that PD array was a Unicorn or even the +OB
76 +* Price will now seek Buyside Liquidity
39 39  
78 +[[image:image44.png]]
79 +
80 +ES 5m
81 +
82 +[[image:image37.png]]
83 +
40 40  ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
41 41  
42 -== New Week Opening Gap (NWOG) ==
86 +== 3PM Judas Swing ==
43 43  
88 +* The same concept can be applied to the 3pm session as well!
89 +* From my personal experience I don't see this one happen as often or even act as reliable as the 1:30 Judas. For that reason I don't have many examples.
90 +
91 +=== Example ===
92 +
93 +==== ES1m ====
94 +
95 +[[image:image14.png]]
96 +
44 44  ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
45 45  
46 -== Understanding what multiple touches of NWOG means ==
99 +== New Week Opening Gap (NWOG) ==
47 47  
101 +The New Week Opening Gap is a strong price magnet
102 +
103 +Draw it out every week onto your charts (Friday closing price to Sunday open price)
104 +
105 +The market is going to gravitate back to it IF we are NOT TRENDING and many times become REAL support/resistance
106 +
107 +You should have the last 4 NWOGs + the current week's NWOG on your chart. So 5 in total. Have a separate template for only NWOG.
108 +
109 +Doing so gives you an X-ray view of how the algorithm will refer back to old areas of real FAIR VALUE
110 +
111 +[[image:image6.png]]
112 +
48 48  ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
49 49  
50 -== Gaps that don't fill are rocket fuel ==
115 +== Understanding what multiple touches of NWOG means ==
51 51  
117 +If we see price come back to the NWOG multiple times intra week you are likely in a consolidation that's going to continue
118 +
119 +[[image:image11.png]]
120 +
52 52  ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
53 53  
54 -== Understanding equilibrium of discount ==
123 +== Gaps that don't fill are rocket fuel ==
55 55  
125 +This means price is in a hurry to reprice to a level that's outside the range its in currently (External range liquidity)
126 +
127 +Every time we get in a trade we look for this signature
128 +
56 56  ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
57 57  
131 +== Understanding equilibrium of discount ==
132 +
133 +Highest probability shorts have been exhausted once we move below equilibrium of DISCOUNT
134 +
135 +[[image:image28.png]]
136 +
137 +====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
138 +
58 58  == Understanding low probability conditions ==
59 59  
141 +Key Lesson: If you have 2 equally probable outcomes you are trading in low probability conditions and essentially gambling . Sit on the sidelines and demand more information.
142 +
143 +[[image:image42.png]]
144 +
60 60  ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
61 61  
62 -== New Day Opening Gap (NDOG) ==
147 +== New Day Opening Gap (NDOG) ==
63 63  
149 +When we open at 6pm, drag a rectangle from the 5pm closing price to the 6pm open
150 +
151 +Extend that throughout the next 12-16 hours. That will act much like you see with the NWOG
152 +
153 +[[image:image16.png]]
154 +
155 +Example of precision with NDOG:
156 +
157 +[[image:image46.png]]
158 +
64 64  ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
65 65  
66 66  == Quarter of the wick ==
67 67  
163 +When there is a bearish heavy stance on price, C.E of a wick is likely not to be traded too.
164 +
165 +If you suspect that is the case, you get the very specific price level of one quarter of the wick
166 +
167 +[[image:image2.png]]
168 +
68 68  ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
69 69  
70 70  == PM session running AM session Buy stops ==
71 71  
173 +If you see a trending morning session like below, ask yourself where are shorts trailing their stops?
174 +
175 +Expect the PM session to take those stops
176 +
177 +ES 1 min
178 +
179 +[[image:image26.png]]
180 +
72 72  ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
73 73  
74 -== Market on close Macro ==
183 +== Market on close Macro ==
75 75  
185 +In a up close day rarely do you see the candle close on the high unless its a trending day.
186 +
187 +Typically it creates the intraday HOD then pulls away from it and closes near the high.
188 +
189 +This is the market on close Macro
190 +
191 +[[image:image31.png]]
192 +
76 76  ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
77 77  
78 78  == 3:15-3:45 Sweet Spot ==
79 79  
197 +Generally you will find between 3:15-3:45pm a sweet spot to place a trade if we know where we are looking for liquidity.
198 +
199 +Above the market place if bullish
200 +
201 +Below the market place if bearish
202 +
203 +OR
204 +
205 +if there is an imbalance we will look to rebalance it
206 +
207 +The algo will spool to a obvious point of liquidity that had not been targeted yet
208 +
209 +Example
210 +
211 +[[image:image1.png]]
212 +
80 80  ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
81 81  
82 82  == The Upper Quarter Concept ==
83 83  
217 +If you believe that you have figured out where the low is in the market for a particular price swing and you think its gonna go up to an old high where BSL is, the equilibrium of that run and below is where the best buy opportunities occur.
218 +
219 +As soon as we get to the upper quarter of where the target is, the market is not likely to go back for sell stops. This is because price will be in a hurry to run out Buy stops in so traders don't get the opportunity for those orders to be pulled.
220 +
221 +ES 2m
222 +
223 +[[image:image18.png]]
224 +
84 84  ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
85 85  
86 -== Regular Trading Hours (RTH) ==
227 +== Regular Trading Hours (RTH) ==
87 87  
229 +When trading futures indices you need to also consider how we closed the previous session and where we opened at 9:30 because that difference is a REAL Liquidity Void. We call it the Opening range gap.
230 +
231 +Price has a tendency to not let these areas stay unfilled for too long.
232 +
233 +At 9:30 open, every single day as an index futures trader you are going to toggle RTH on and identify the Opening Range Gap:
234 +
235 +We are opening up with a Premium if the gap is higher than the previous session close
236 +
237 +We are opening up at a Discount if the gap is lower than the previous session close
238 +
239 +[[image:image30.png]]
240 +
241 +[[image:image34.png]]
242 +
243 +Reviewing the relationship between the Daily VIBs and RTH gap + Understanding opening at a premium/discount of RTH:
244 +
245 +[[image:image9.png]]
246 +
247 +[[image:image25.png]]
248 +
88 88  ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
89 89  
90 90  == When to expect Seek and Destroy conditions ==
91 91  
253 +1) On the heels of any holiday that impacts normal trading hours the very next trading session, the morning is likely to be VERY low probability/choppy. The market is more prone to seek and destroy conditions
254 +
255 +(For example on Monday the market is closed due to a bank holiday, expect a choppy AM session going into Tuesday)
256 +
257 +-Let the market fall back to its normalcy
258 +
259 +-Only retail traders are rushing to the markets on a day like this like gamblers at a casino
260 +
261 +2) Higher Time frame target is delivered prior to 9:30 am open expect a choppy AM session
262 +
263 +3) Asia High and Low are raided during the London session. Then London High and Low are raided during NY creating a broadening formation
264 +
92 92  ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
93 93  
94 -== Implied FVG ==
267 +== Implied FVG ==
95 95  
269 +How to identify a FVG when there is no "gap" and only overlapping wicks
270 +
271 +[[image:image20.png]]
272 +
96 96  ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
97 97  
98 98  == When 3 PD Arrays fail your fucked ==
99 99  
277 +"When 3 PD arrays fail your fucked... it's going the other direction now"
278 +
279 +[[image:image22.png]]
280 +
100 100  ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
101 101  
102 -== A CLOSE below the swing low that we would see as being a Market Structure Shift, we treat it as a Breaker ==
283 +== A CLOSE below the swing low that we would see as being a Market Structure Shift, we treat it as a Breaker ==
103 103  
285 +[[image:image3.png]]
286 +
104 104  ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
105 105  
106 -== 3 candle price action signature ==
289 +== 3 candle price action signature ==
107 107  
291 +[[image:image53.png]]
292 +
108 108  ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
109 109  
110 -== Event Horizon ==
295 +== Event Horizon ==
111 111  
297 +Half way between a NWOG and the closest NWOG is the Event Horizon
298 +
299 +It will not allow price to escape the draw to the NWOG and it will create a surge towards the NWOG it got too "close" to but yet reached
300 +
301 +Example 1
302 +
303 +ES 15m
304 +
305 +[[image:image38.png]]
306 +
307 +ES 2m
308 +
309 +[[image:image10.png]]
310 +
311 +Example 2
312 +
313 +ES 15m
314 +
315 +[[image:image52.png]]
316 +
317 +Example 3
318 +
319 +ES 15m
320 +
321 +[[image:image21.png]]
322 +
112 112  ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
113 113  
114 114  == How to avoid taking a low probability FVG ==
115 115  
327 +How to AVOID taking low probability FVGs using DXY
328 +
329 +[[image:image43.png]]
330 +
116 116  ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
117 117  
118 -== How far can you trust price to go above BSL or SSL for a Turtle Soup? ==
333 +== How far can you trust price to go above BSL or SSL for a Turtle Soup? ==
119 119  
335 +How far can you trust price to go above BSL or SSL for a Turtle Soup?
336 +
337 +NWOG
338 +
339 +NDOG
340 +
341 +Opening Range Gap
342 +
343 +These are 3 specific tools you can use to answer this question
344 +
345 +[[image:image50.png]]
346 +
120 120  ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
121 121  
122 -== NWOG Actual and NWOG ==
349 +== NWOG Actual and NWOG ==
123 123  
351 +NWOG Actual = Fridays close to Sundays Open
352 +
353 +NWOG = Fridays close to Mondays Equities Open at 9:30am
354 +
355 +(On a personal note I don't use NWOG from close to Monday 9:30 open. All I use is NWOG Actual and I think that's more than enough)
356 +
357 +[[image:image47.png]]
358 +
124 124  ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
125 125  
126 -== Macros ==
361 +== Macros ==
127 127  
363 +A macro is a window of time where the algorithm will seek untapped liquidity or an imbalance. You can split your day up into windows of time and only trade these macros!
364 +
365 +You can enter prior to the macro beginning.
366 +
367 +The run will originate inside the macro time but does not have to complete it. It can still deliver after macro close
368 +
369 +The NY session Macros (All NY eastern time):
370 +
371 +9:50-10:10am (MY FAVORITE)
372 +
373 +10:50-11:10 am
374 +
375 +11:50-12:10 pm (l never trade this one...)
376 +
377 +1:30pm Judas
378 +
379 +3:15-3:45 pm "Sweet Spot"
380 +
381 +
382 +As a bonus here are some example of my favorite macro 9:50-10:10:
383 +
384 +Example 1 (ES 1 min)
385 +
386 +SSL swept right at open into Daily C.E level
387 +
388 +MSS+Displacement created FVG and +OB
389 +
390 +SMT with NQ
391 +
392 +Long entry in FVG
393 +
394 +Target most recent high break/ NWOG
395 +
396 +[[image:image12.png]]
397 +
398 +I would also like to add that The RTH gap gave me a soft bullish bias this morning which gave me confidence in tak)ing this long. As you can see we filled it PERFECTLY (ES 15 min
399 +
400 +[[image:image19.png]]
401 +
402 +Example 2 (ES 1 min)
403 +
404 +A couple ES NFP Friday Scalps
405 +
406 +1st:
407 +
408 +LOD sweep + 1H FVG C.E
409 +
410 +Strong Displacement creating FVG
411 +
412 +1m bearish FVG clear DOL
413 +
414 +
415 +2nd:
416 +
417 +Entry off inversion level and +OB
418 +
419 +Scale at new short term high
420 +
421 +Wanted 3916 but stopped B.E on runners
422 +
423 +[[image:image4.png]]
424 +
425 +Example 3 (ES 1 min)
426 +
427 +
428 +Market left REHs at the London High
429 +
430 +Previous Week's low Sell side swept and had a MSS+Displacement (2022 model)
431 +
432 +DXY had a liquidity void to fill below meaning ES
433 +
434 +Long entry in the Unicorn
435 +
436 +[[image:image36.png]]
437 +
438 +DXY 15 min
439 +
440 +[[image:image5.png]]
441 +
128 128  ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
129 129  
130 -== 10-11am Silver Bullet ==
444 +== 10-11am Silver Bullet ==
131 131  
132 132  ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
133 133  
134 -== MSS after 1pm ==
448 +== MSS after 1pm ==
135 135  
136 136  ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
137 137  
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174 174  == ICT Glossary of terms ==
175 175  
176 176  ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
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492 +
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