ICT YT - 2018-12-14 - Bitcoin Technical Talk - PG13.srt

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ICT: Okay, folks, we're looking at the Bitcoin market. And I got a ton of
emails, because I'm taking a hiatus from Twitter, to give me an opportunity to

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sit with you for a moment and discuss the Bitcoin market, obviously, are a short
distance away from the 20 K level. Before I go into this, if you're new to this

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channel, it would be best if you went to Twitter and scroll through. back before
we had this run up in here. I had discussed a lot of the movements here on the

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outside, I call 20,000. Right before 20,019 719 eight, I said that we would not
see 20,000 we would do to 6000 5000 3020 500. And recently, I've said that we

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would see Bitcoin $100. And I've obviously ruffled some feathers with this call.
But essentially, what I'm stating is that all of this price action back here.

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Okay, we're gonna go below all that. This is all mania, which is typical, like a
penny stock euphoria, it's just total absolute meaning. Now, again, I do not

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know very much about the crypto industry. I'm a pure technical trader, I don't
look at anything from a fundamental scale, unless it's a commodity, or stock.

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And Bitcoin is neither. So therefore, I trust my read on price action. And I'll
leave it to you whether or not I was right about all the turns in Bitcoin over

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the last year and a half or so. So let's move into a tighter view. on Bitcoin.
If I'm going a little too slow for you, obviously, but YouTube has a function,

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we can speed up the audio. And I found that you can get through my videos pretty
quickly around one and a half times 1.75. And he really into it, you can do two

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times record speed. So please don't give me the comments, I talk too slow,
because I really don't give a shit. So there is a hope for this being support

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here. And we talked about how price was going to hang around that 6400 level.
And it did that for several months, we consolidated inside of a range that was

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defined on my Twitter feed. And then right after we saw a run up, which was this
one right in here. I said it was it was free to trade lower from that point on.

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And we did a little bit of consolidation around that 6400 again, and finally it
snapped lower. Every level of distribution very cleanly referred to on Twitter,

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we've been focusing on one side of the marketplace for Bitcoin. Now, I don't
actively trade this, I just talk about it because my students are enamored by

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crypto and you for the lack of a better word. I'm a noob when it comes to crypto
as a whole, but from a technical standpoint. Like I said, I think I'm pretty

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much a dead ringer on all the moves that's happened in it because I understand
the delivery of price. And there's a lot of folks that will state that new

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crypto is the new thing. Okay, so all the old stuff goes out the window. No,
it's not. It's the same stuff. And the things that make a market are going to be

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used in anything that trades it's the same rulebook. It's the same ammo, if you
will. So with that in mind, I've brought a lot of folks to the 3000 level. Okay,

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and I'm just going to go over some of the things as to what led to this.

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And what I think may transpire going forward, that leads us to only what 240 to
245 points away from it. So it's hanging around in here building, in my mind, a

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hope scenario. I don't think we'll even see a bounce in here. Because this one,
just give up the ghost and go lower. Now, below 3000 got 2500. I like that

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level. I said this several months ago that I think 2500 could give a bounce. Now
when I say bounce, we're not going to 10,000 Okay, but I'm going to 8000 I don't

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even think we'll probably see a run above six. And the reason why is there gonna
be a lot of short covering a lot of traders that have joined the bandwagon in

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crypto, but on the bear side, I stated that once they put this market on a
futures market, and put a futures contract against it, the banks would kill it.

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And here we are. So I don't want to hear arguments about you know, this that no
thing and it's going to be the future. I don't care personally, when it's going

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to be in the future. My only concern and interest in it is how is it trading?
there? There's a lot of companies out there that have very, very low valuations

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in terms of what they are priced as a market. You technically trading it, but
they're worth tons and tons of billions, you know, and it's not, it's not

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important. That's but that way to weigh those things out. Because if crypto is
going to be the future, we're still in the infancy of it. And I don't think

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Bitcoin is going to be the one thing that you know, remains, I think ultimately
it will be phased out. And something will be put in its place that's going to

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garner the trust, if you will, of traders that have lost their trust in it,
because I have family members that have lost money in this how Bitcoin and

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crypto is gonna replace all of fiat currency and is new, we're gonna upset the
establishment, and I'm gonna display the value that's not happening. Okay, so

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the world is ran by these banks, and you're not going to unsettle them. And
you're just not going to sit down one day and say, I'm going to create my own

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currency, it's going to replace all the world currencies, it doesn't work like
that. Okay. Every war around this world, okay, is ran and start in funded by

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banks. And if you don't understand that you dig deeper into history and get to
the facts. So these same entities are in operation on all levels of asset class,

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you really think you really think that crypto is going to be that knight in
shining armor? I'm going to side with the big banks, because they have all the

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military. They have all the influence, and they have the money. The real money,
the digital stuff that new is referred to in crypto. This past year has done

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more damage to the element of trust and visibility for the industry that is
quote unquote, crypto. Everyone was talking about getting rich. Everyone's gonna

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be driving around New Lamborghinis. Well, it's December 12 2018. It's the 14th
of December. Where's all the Lamborghinis? Where's all that Bitcoin millionaires

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that we're buying and holding? You know, I often ask those individuals that come
at me on social media. Where's those riches? Now and, you know, invariably,

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they're gonna say, well, they sold out here, they got this, they got that. And
that might be true. But they're still selling that hole. by me. It's going to

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the moon, it's going to be 150,000 Bitcoin, whatever. Okay, I'm not here to kick
sand into people that have bought into that bullshit and lost their money. I'm

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actually trying to remind you that I told you not to do those things and
expected to go lower. And here we are. So if we look at a recent post I did on

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Twitter, if you go over to my Twitter feed, I gave an example

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of what I felt was going to be indicative of a run on stops, and then a future
decline. If you look at what price has been doing. It obviously isn't

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consolidation, which is typical right before another move lower. There's
accumulation of orders that are happening in here, regardless of it being crypto

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or not. There's a lot of noobs that have entered the market. Good place as a
quote unquote trader using crypto. And maybe they saw a run up a year ago and it

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makes them feel like they're, they're informed and or plugged in as to what the
markets going to do. And you see these guys on social media, they're the

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godfather of technical analysis, whatever, but they do not have faith in
underlying market making concepts and reason why they don't know them. If we

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know that the likelihood is a devaluation on this currency, which is currently
and has been for, over a year now been underway for all the cryptocurrencies,

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specifically Bitcoin. Now only I'll keep my conversation germane to this
specific crypto, Bitcoin only, all the other ones, they're all in the same boat,

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if you want to call it that. I've already said ripples going lower. I like 15
cents on ripple, I think it's going to go there and just dash all the hopes of

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all those people that were swearing by God, it's going to be in the next bastion
of new enterprise. I don't see it and believe it in, you know, I don't have any

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skin in the race. What's important about that is I'm objective. I'm not holding
something with an emotional commitment to it. I don't have hopes that I'm going

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to make money out of it. And I don't care if I'm wrong. But everything I've
said, with the exception of one call made in August, I've been right about. So

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does that mean follow everything I'm telling you? And believe me, No, I don't
want you to believe me, I want you to be a skeptic, I want you to go through

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everything I'm stating here and test and seeing way if what I'm saying is, in
fact, the truth and go back on my Twitter feed and see what I've said was, in

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fact, what happened. That's all I'm asking you to do, actually, you can do
nothing, you can just turn this video off as as a bunch of shit. And go about

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your way. And that's fine, too. I'm not talking to you, I'm talking to you in
his will that asked me to do this. So when I look for price action, to give me

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signatures that it's going to do one or another scenario, if if I have a an
Outlook or template in mind, because I have several templates that I use that

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the market generally will follow. It's taught my mentorship. But the if you look
at this old low here, now obviously we've seen it trade to here and hope is

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traditional support resistance theory is what we bounced here before, and now he
traded here. So now it should go higher. That's not happening. Okay, it's going

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to go lower the overall consolidation in here, what I like to look for is what
was the move prior to the consolidation. And obviously, without having to go to

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the left of the chart, we know what's been going lower. I look for ideal
scenarios to support a retail minded perspective, that means I'm looking for

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reasons to see where street money or less informed traders will look to take
trades in the opposite direction. Because the narrative that's going to be sold

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to them is that this thing's going higher. Because the the myth is that it's
going to go to the moon eventually. Well, I don't know about that. But

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nonetheless, here's a supposedly bullish trendline. Okay, we seen one move here.
We found some would be support almost didn't get down to it found a little bit

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support here and rolled through. Now I tweeted the chart on the 12th of
December, stating that if I ran price on Bitcoin, okay, if I was taking the role

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of a market maker for Bitcoin, I would give the scenario where they would show a
break in the support, supposedly, of diagonal trend line support, which I have

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no faith in, I think it's all horseshit. It's too, too subjective. And there's
so many lines that you can draw in there. It's, it's foolishness, okay, I mean,

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I knew 15,000 people don't come at me with Well, here, let me just realize where
I made money, that's fine. But that's going to be an aberration. It's going to

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be one of those times where that's why the textbooks exist. Okay? There's going
to be a few examples of this, but I don't have faith in it personally, because

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the things I trade with,

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or event rather objective. They're very succinct. They're very direct. Okay,
they're not gray areas to model with. It doesn't have, well, it could be this it

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could be that it's, it's this, okay. And one of the things that I like looking
for is they give these little bounces off of these supposedly lines, okay, and

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it paints a narrative. In the retail minded trader, they think this is support.
So if they're going to be buying in here, where's their stop loss going to be

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right below the most recent low? Well, that's what I was showing in my diagram,
run below it. So it kills the buys immediately, and then gives a false hope that

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it wants to go higher by breaking above, but what it's really targeting is this
little area right in here shot clean, that is, you'll smooth. Anytime you see a

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level of price action where the tops of the candles are very uniform. That is
going to be a trap. Okay, this is market making 101 this is exactly where the

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markets going to go. That's exactly what you see my chart, a little hand drawn.
If I controlled and ran price on Bitcoin, this whole move right here was that

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very moment. As price trades to this, I don't view that as a breakout to the
upside, I don't see that as a continuation on the upside. If you look at all the

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Twitter heroes, they're all excited at this point. Okay, prior to me doing my
December 12, post about what I thought was going to happen. There's a lot of

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people that argued this point, but the ones that trust me, they'll more or less
expected something this basically the same thing because of what I teach or run

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on stops. What makes this powerful is we're looking for the underlying
direction. Okay, and this is not to do income specific trend lines, just

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reminding us that the overall institutional order flow on this asset, if you
want to call it that is bearish. Banks are selling the shit out of this, okay,

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they're killing it, whether you want to accept it or not, you can be fanboys for
the rest of your life. I'm just telling you the cold hard truth. Soon as they

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put it on the futures market, I told everyone, it's dead, they're going to kill
it. And that's exactly what they've done. Now, argue with me all you want go on

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social media and get all the stupid shit that you want to post about whatever
you think it isn't changing the facts, Bitcoin is going lower. So what I do is I

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draw up levels that I think are going to be probable in terms of downside
objectives. Now, it doesn't mean it's going to stop at these levels. It's not to

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support a buying point. Okay. And that's the other thing I want to talk about.
When I go over things, I don't do like an A or B scenario, and come back to

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later on and see how smart I was because b didn't pan out a did. I only stick to
one narrative, in the narrative I talked about is the one that the market does.

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I don't look for outs, I don't do any kind of, well, here's Plan B, if it
doesn't work that way, so that way I say face and build cloud on social media, I

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only call one direction. That's it, I call one direction I call a specific
target. That's it, and my shit pans out. I don't know why anybody would sit

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there and listen to someone that has all these squiggly lines. And if it does
this, it's going to go up here, if it does this, it's gonna go down here. There

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is a lot of that shit on Twitter. And to me, you're better off not looking at
that. Because really what it's doing is it's giving you something entirely

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different to look at. And neither one of them are building an idea in your mind
of what you should do. In fact, you probably are looking at that chart or that

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person on social media with a preconceived idea about what you think is going to
happen. And guess what, they've now introduced two other scenarios that you

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didn't expect, and neither one are likely to pan out. So now you have three
ideal scenarios, right? They're all ideal, the original one you thought of. And

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the two other ones that this schmuck on Twitter wants to promote as theory.
You're doing it wrong. And I'm not saying Follow me. I'm just stating that if

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you're going to be a trader, if you're going to be developing, looking for other
people's ideas or support around an idea that you may or may not have is

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actually going to be detrimental to your development. All I stated on Twitter as
it relates to crypto is it's going lower and I'll give you reasons why and when

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it should do it.

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Not if it does this, I'm gonna buy it. I've never said I'm buying. I'm buying
Bitcoin I've remained bearish have never said those types of things, except for

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one call in August. I suggested it could rally up if it did one thing but then
in that scenario, I didn't say but if it doesn't go up, I'm going to do this.

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No. I said this would be a stop and it would be a wrong trade transaction. It
would simply be a loss. That's the difference between someone that understands

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how to trade and someone that wants to look smart or build to cloud. And that's
usually where that same individual would never take the other side of the trade.

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They, they're signing internally with one of those perspectives that they've
shared online. But they're never going to commit to the one that they're really

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signing with, or maybe even put a transaction behind. And I don't believe any of
them really doing transactions either. Not even on a demo basis, either. So what

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are you left with? You're left with a decision of, are you just watching this
person because of its morbid curiosity that drives you to keep going back to

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their Twitter? And maybe that's the case with me? Or are you really getting
something from it, because if you're just getting a dopamine drop, well, you can

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get that somewhere else. And you should get it from your own experiences in
trading don't support these Twitter heroes that are unproven. Because if they

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have all these AB scenarios, okay, and they haven't really said, this is the one
that's going to pan out, that doesn't mean shit, it doesn't mean anything. It

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just means that these are hypothetical scenarios. And I have created an an
opportunity where I can be right in either sense. And just like a magician has a

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concept called a magician's force. If we were in the same room together, I could
force a card on you about 70 different ways, and you would never know how I did

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it. They're all different, but it's the same concept, I'm giving you the card,
you thought you had a free choice of if we're watching scenarios be presented by

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someone, okay. Invariably, what happens is the new trader or the new board, or
someone that's just really just feeling down about their inability to find

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consistency, they want someone put these multiple scenarios up, okay. And what
happens is, one of them might come close to peak panning out, it might be very

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close to it, it doesn't really unfold exactly like they state or show and
scribble lines, if it does this, it'll be a buy. If it does this, it'll be a

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sell, I can't stay it irks the shit out of me. Because that's not someone that
understands what's going on. A trader doesn't make decisions like that. Okay,

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that's someone that says talking about things that someone that just wants to
look smart after the fact. side with the market, that's going to be most likely

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to be profitable, the direction that's going to happen in your mind side with
that and stick with that don't get the double sided narrative, okay? Because the

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noob will come back and say, Wow, look at that ledge. Look at that guy. He's so
smart. He's this, he's that he's full of shit, because all he did was let you

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decide in your own mind after the fact, what you thought was all along his
intentions or his motives behind doing it. Don't believe me? Go back and look at

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all that bullshit, because that's all it is. Now going on with presently what we
see here. The market first has to give the the the notion and provide the

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evidence to the traders that it's going to move. Now obviously, the
institutional workflow is bearish, we understand that when the markets in

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consolidation, what we want to see is a low be taken. That's this one right
here. Once the market breaks down like that, what that has done is upset the

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underlying sentiment during this consolidation. So here we have that suppose a
trendline. Okay, and folks that were looking for this to provide support, they

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would have bought in here with expectation of having a stop here just below
that, and or right below here, either or either scenario. But when they see this

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breaking that suppose that trend line, their bullishness is going to be tested,
if their stop hasn't been hit, they're going to be thinking, Okay, maybe I'm

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wrong. Maybe I need to change directions, because I have to always be in the
marketplace, thinking like a retail trader, they may look at this and say, Well,

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I'm going to trade that retest of the broken trendline. And I'll go short there.
And I'll use this safe spot here because this is clearly resistance. All this

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does is to build a greater interest in this level, to put liquidity in the form
of a buy stocks that buy stock liquidity, or as I call it, a liquidity pool that

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will build

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a willing base to sell into who wants to sell it, they're informed money, like
myself and the people that follow me. I tell them exactly where smart money will

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engage, why they're trying to get price there, because it's going to be in a
stablished effort to get it to back below this low here. So right in here.

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Classic market making strategy is you want to see a break lower first, some kind
of a narrative where it drops lower it can be simply running on oh well. I

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always like to look for a trendline not because I like trend lines to trade off
of them. Because I'm what I'm doing is I'm taking the the theory and the belief

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structure around trend lines and using it against and exploiting the retail
minded traders. I do it all the time, every single week on Twitter. In forex, I

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do it every single day just about in forex, and this stuff repeats over and over
and over again. And that's the reason why you have that high 90% likelihood that

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you're gonna lose your money, because you believe in this bullshit. So right in
here, if we have an unknown amount of buy stocks, we don't know how much it is,

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I don't care. I don't need to know that. You know, I had some guy on Twitter,
say, go over to bit Mex. And you'll see that the crypto markets don't trade like

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that. Okay, if it's trading, it's going to do this. This is market making
period. Okay, nonetheless. So selling short here with some stop above here, we

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don't know how high it's going to go. Why don't you? Why don't you know how high
it's going to go. If you don't know how high it's going to go, then you probably

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shouldn't take the trade above these equal highs is going to be a form of
liquidity, it's going to be a bunch of buy stops. Why? Because you have traders

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that are already shorting here, they're going to trail their stop loss there, or
they're going to see this trend line here. And then when they trade to it,

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they're going to put a stop loss rate above that, because they want a really,
really ultra short, tight stop. Same idea. When we see that, above these equal

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highs, all we have to do is look for the next level liquidity to the left of it,
that's right in here, right in there. So now we have a range, we have this low

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here and we have this high here, watch. Okay, I'm going to take the low of that
range. So there it is. Now, the 50 levels right there. All I'm going to do is

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put a line right on that 50. So here's the zero 23 638 and 50. Right there.
Right, so now we have our specific price level right here. It's in the middle of

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the consolidation, private move of these equal highs, which is going to form a
buy stop liquidity pool. Now this first punch up in here, it may take a first

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layer of stops away. then boom. It's the specific price level that's outlined as
I teach it. This is market structure, ICT level, there's a lot of market

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structure ideas that usually are talked about through like Elliott Wave, which I
think is a bunch of bullshit too. And I'm not trying to be disrespectful as much

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as it may sound it I know there's people out there that are profitable trading
Elliott Wave. But if you studied my concepts, I guarantee you, you will see an

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improvement on your understanding of price action, and you'll slowly work away
from the Elliott Wave stuff. But right in here, that's where price trades. Okay,

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is that random? Hell no, it's not random. Now, once it trades here, it's over.
It's not going higher. But when a noob sees this, they're thinking, wow, you

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know, this thing has gone up. This trend line is no longer any good. So let me
get rid of that. So now it's going higher. I'm gonna buy this support because

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look, here it is resistance broken now becomes support. So now what are they
doing? They're buying it. It's going to the moon baby. I see T's wrong on this

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one. I can't wait to see how he responds to that tweet. Where's the Where's the
other side of the market while they ran the buy stops who sold those by stops

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smart money. So how are they going to get out of that position they're in
because they've offered liquidity to those that want to be using the buy stock

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to exit or short or use it to be a breakout artist to go higher. because
everything's about the moon for whatever reason. Now the liquidity rests here.

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Great there and now we're back in line and in sync with the narrative that that
whole downside institution order flow, what's been going on for over a year now

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and Bitcoin it's going lower. So the buy stocks have been purchased by the stops
on shorts or buying on a breakout for underlying Long's they had been

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counterparties to Smart Money looking to sell short so they sold here. So
there's a book made on them offering liquidity as they would need to be trading

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shorts with protection. So they given that that that mode of efficiency for for
traders, so they can't complain. They gave them their buy stuff they asked for

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it they put their stop loss rate above these equal highs. But now the smart
money if taken a position by going short here and they want to see price go

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below this low and this low. In this low, because otherwise offering just a
liquidity over here, they can't keep a house profitable if they do that. In

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other words, the common misnomer is the market makers neutral. Okay? people that
believe that have no idea what the fuck they're talking about because they are

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means of making a book and offering liquidity, yes. Okay. But that's not what
they're doing. They're not making money just primarily on the spread basis of

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that, and then that's their whole basis and sound. profitability. No, they're,
they're actively participating to you think they're not going to participate

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something they're in control up, think about what you just stated, think about
these people that you know, go on TV, or they write books, or they go on social

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media and sales stuff, I turn all that stuff upside down every single fucking
day on Twitter, it's every single day clockwork with me, I show it all the time.

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And it's the same stuff. It's not ambiguous, it's always the same structure,
it's 180 degrees diametrically opposed from everything you fucking learn in

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books, it's as simple as that. You throw the books away, throw them away, stop
buying fucking books, they're not teaching you anything except for doing the

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wrong thing over and over and over again. So now that the liquidity has been
absorbed by stocks have been Counterparty to short sellers on the Smart Money

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side, the market is free to trade lower. And the market trades lower. Runs
quickly to the stock because they don't want anybody getting out and runs this

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stop and it runs below here. The markets presently hanging around right above
this level here. Why is it? Why is it doing that? Because it's giving traders

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the hope aspect, they want to see support found here and you want to see a trade
all the way up to 10,000 12,000 50,000 150,000. There's nothing in here stating

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that that's going to happen. The most probable outcome is going to be it's going
to 3000. Now, why 3000? If we go back out to a daily chart, once September 15th

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of 2017 we have a low of 2975. So what's the round number right above that?
3000. So 3000, to me is the draw on price that we're that's where price on

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Bitcoin most likely will go go to it's obviously going to have liquidity below
that low. So it could be in the form of 2800. It could be like 2500 because it

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eats into all of this area in here. Okay, and then we have the strong likelihood
if we get really animated, we could see it run below these lows here. But

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ultimately, bitcoins go into $100. Okay, and like I said, it's not to be
disrespectful to anyone, you know, I understand everyone that was making money

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here, and now you're not, but I told you back here, it wasn't going on. It
wasn't hitting 20,000 go back on Twitter, you'll see it. I even show it to you

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in chart I explain it to you in a chart. Why it's not going to happen. And it's
happened ever since then. So hopefully it hasn't upset you too much. If it has

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it's not my intentions is obviously meant to get you thinking independently and
get off of the social media worshipping of nobodies because they don't know what

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they're doing. And getting lucky with one of two scenarios is placed on a chart.
That's not prognostication, it's guessing until about the next time which Good

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luck and good trading