Skip to Content
Version 1.1 by Drunk Monkey on 2020-12-09 05:10
Show last authors
1 1
2 00:00:36,750 ~-~-> 00:00:49,320
3 ICT: Okay, folks, we're looking at the Bitcoin market. And I got a ton of
4 emails, because I'm taking a hiatus from Twitter, to give me an opportunity to
5
6 2
7 00:00:49,320 ~-~-> 00:01:04,860
8 sit with you for a moment and discuss the Bitcoin market, obviously, are a short
9 distance away from the 20 K level. Before I go into this, if you're new to this
10
11 3
12 00:01:04,860 ~-~-> 00:01:19,440
13 channel, it would be best if you went to Twitter and scroll through. back before
14 we had this run up in here. I had discussed a lot of the movements here on the
15
16 4
17 00:01:19,440 ~-~-> 00:01:36,720
18 outside, I call 20,000. Right before 20,019 719 eight, I said that we would not
19 see 20,000 we would do to 6000 5000 3020 500. And recently, I've said that we
20
21 5
22 00:01:36,720 ~-~-> 00:01:49,080
23 would see Bitcoin $100. And I've obviously ruffled some feathers with this call.
24 But essentially, what I'm stating is that all of this price action back here.
25
26 6
27 00:01:50,610 ~-~-> 00:02:09,450
28 Okay, we're gonna go below all that. This is all mania, which is typical, like a
29 penny stock euphoria, it's just total absolute meaning. Now, again, I do not
30
31 7
32 00:02:09,450 ~-~-> 00:02:21,990
33 know very much about the crypto industry. I'm a pure technical trader, I don't
34 look at anything from a fundamental scale, unless it's a commodity, or stock.
35
36 8
37 00:02:22,470 ~-~-> 00:02:33,930
38 And Bitcoin is neither. So therefore, I trust my read on price action. And I'll
39 leave it to you whether or not I was right about all the turns in Bitcoin over
40
41 9
42 00:02:33,930 ~-~-> 00:02:50,070
43 the last year and a half or so. So let's move into a tighter view. on Bitcoin.
44 If I'm going a little too slow for you, obviously, but YouTube has a function,
45
46 10
47 00:02:50,070 ~-~-> 00:03:01,260
48 we can speed up the audio. And I found that you can get through my videos pretty
49 quickly around one and a half times 1.75. And he really into it, you can do two
50
51 11
52 00:03:01,260 ~-~-> 00:03:13,440
53 times record speed. So please don't give me the comments, I talk too slow,
54 because I really don't give a shit. So there is a hope for this being support
55
56 12
57 00:03:14,220 ~-~-> 00:03:26,250
58 here. And we talked about how price was going to hang around that 6400 level.
59 And it did that for several months, we consolidated inside of a range that was
60
61 13
62 00:03:26,340 ~-~-> 00:03:38,970
63 defined on my Twitter feed. And then right after we saw a run up, which was this
64 one right in here. I said it was it was free to trade lower from that point on.
65
66 14
67 00:03:39,030 ~-~-> 00:03:50,040
68 And we did a little bit of consolidation around that 6400 again, and finally it
69 snapped lower. Every level of distribution very cleanly referred to on Twitter,
70
71 15
72 00:03:51,000 ~-~-> 00:04:00,990
73 we've been focusing on one side of the marketplace for Bitcoin. Now, I don't
74 actively trade this, I just talk about it because my students are enamored by
75
76 16
77 00:04:01,020 ~-~-> 00:04:14,130
78 crypto and you for the lack of a better word. I'm a noob when it comes to crypto
79 as a whole, but from a technical standpoint. Like I said, I think I'm pretty
80
81 17
82 00:04:14,130 ~-~-> 00:04:23,490
83 much a dead ringer on all the moves that's happened in it because I understand
84 the delivery of price. And there's a lot of folks that will state that new
85
86 18
87 00:04:23,520 ~-~-> 00:04:36,510
88 crypto is the new thing. Okay, so all the old stuff goes out the window. No,
89 it's not. It's the same stuff. And the things that make a market are going to be
90
91 19
92 00:04:36,510 ~-~-> 00:04:57,600
93 used in anything that trades it's the same rulebook. It's the same ammo, if you
94 will. So with that in mind, I've brought a lot of folks to the 3000 level. Okay,
95
96 20
97 00:04:57,600 ~-~-> 00:05:04,620
98 and I'm just going to go over some of the things as to what led to this.
99
100 21
101 00:05:06,390 ~-~-> 00:05:19,260
102 And what I think may transpire going forward, that leads us to only what 240 to
103 245 points away from it. So it's hanging around in here building, in my mind, a
104
105 22
106 00:05:19,260 ~-~-> 00:05:29,280
107 hope scenario. I don't think we'll even see a bounce in here. Because this one,
108 just give up the ghost and go lower. Now, below 3000 got 2500. I like that
109
110 23
111 00:05:29,280 ~-~-> 00:05:39,660
112 level. I said this several months ago that I think 2500 could give a bounce. Now
113 when I say bounce, we're not going to 10,000 Okay, but I'm going to 8000 I don't
114
115 24
116 00:05:39,660 ~-~-> 00:05:53,610
117 even think we'll probably see a run above six. And the reason why is there gonna
118 be a lot of short covering a lot of traders that have joined the bandwagon in
119
120 25
121 00:05:53,610 ~-~-> 00:06:03,240
122 crypto, but on the bear side, I stated that once they put this market on a
123 futures market, and put a futures contract against it, the banks would kill it.
124
125 26
126 00:06:03,990 ~-~-> 00:06:15,690
127 And here we are. So I don't want to hear arguments about you know, this that no
128 thing and it's going to be the future. I don't care personally, when it's going
129
130 27
131 00:06:15,690 ~-~-> 00:06:27,540
132 to be in the future. My only concern and interest in it is how is it trading?
133 there? There's a lot of companies out there that have very, very low valuations
134
135 28
136 00:06:27,540 ~-~-> 00:06:38,430
137 in terms of what they are priced as a market. You technically trading it, but
138 they're worth tons and tons of billions, you know, and it's not, it's not
139
140 29
141 00:06:38,430 ~-~-> 00:06:48,150
142 important. That's but that way to weigh those things out. Because if crypto is
143 going to be the future, we're still in the infancy of it. And I don't think
144
145 30
146 00:06:48,150 ~-~-> 00:06:57,450
147 Bitcoin is going to be the one thing that you know, remains, I think ultimately
148 it will be phased out. And something will be put in its place that's going to
149
150 31
151 00:06:59,160 ~-~-> 00:07:08,310
152 garner the trust, if you will, of traders that have lost their trust in it,
153 because I have family members that have lost money in this how Bitcoin and
154
155 32
156 00:07:08,310 ~-~-> 00:07:19,530
157 crypto is gonna replace all of fiat currency and is new, we're gonna upset the
158 establishment, and I'm gonna display the value that's not happening. Okay, so
159
160 33
161 00:07:20,580 ~-~-> 00:07:27,060
162 the world is ran by these banks, and you're not going to unsettle them. And
163 you're just not going to sit down one day and say, I'm going to create my own
164
165 34
166 00:07:27,060 ~-~-> 00:07:36,990
167 currency, it's going to replace all the world currencies, it doesn't work like
168 that. Okay. Every war around this world, okay, is ran and start in funded by
169
170 35
171 00:07:37,020 ~-~-> 00:07:50,940
172 banks. And if you don't understand that you dig deeper into history and get to
173 the facts. So these same entities are in operation on all levels of asset class,
174
175 36
176 00:07:51,690 ~-~-> 00:08:07,200
177 you really think you really think that crypto is going to be that knight in
178 shining armor? I'm going to side with the big banks, because they have all the
179
180 37
181 00:08:07,200 ~-~-> 00:08:21,630
182 military. They have all the influence, and they have the money. The real money,
183 the digital stuff that new is referred to in crypto. This past year has done
184
185 38
186 00:08:21,630 ~-~-> 00:08:36,000
187 more damage to the element of trust and visibility for the industry that is
188 quote unquote, crypto. Everyone was talking about getting rich. Everyone's gonna
189
190 39
191 00:08:36,000 ~-~-> 00:08:47,250
192 be driving around New Lamborghinis. Well, it's December 12 2018. It's the 14th
193 of December. Where's all the Lamborghinis? Where's all that Bitcoin millionaires
194
195 40
196 00:08:47,250 ~-~-> 00:09:00,600
197 that we're buying and holding? You know, I often ask those individuals that come
198 at me on social media. Where's those riches? Now and, you know, invariably,
199
200 41
201 00:09:00,600 ~-~-> 00:09:07,920
202 they're gonna say, well, they sold out here, they got this, they got that. And
203 that might be true. But they're still selling that hole. by me. It's going to
204
205 42
206 00:09:07,920 ~-~-> 00:09:17,400
207 the moon, it's going to be 150,000 Bitcoin, whatever. Okay, I'm not here to kick
208 sand into people that have bought into that bullshit and lost their money. I'm
209
210 43
211 00:09:17,400 ~-~-> 00:09:29,490
212 actually trying to remind you that I told you not to do those things and
213 expected to go lower. And here we are. So if we look at a recent post I did on
214
215 44
216 00:09:29,490 ~-~-> 00:09:35,340
217 Twitter, if you go over to my Twitter feed, I gave an example
218
219 45
220 00:09:35,370 ~-~-> 00:09:48,060
221 of what I felt was going to be indicative of a run on stops, and then a future
222 decline. If you look at what price has been doing. It obviously isn't
223
224 46
225 00:09:48,060 ~-~-> 00:09:56,280
226 consolidation, which is typical right before another move lower. There's
227 accumulation of orders that are happening in here, regardless of it being crypto
228
229 47
230 00:09:56,280 ~-~-> 00:10:08,550
231 or not. There's a lot of noobs that have entered the market. Good place as a
232 quote unquote trader using crypto. And maybe they saw a run up a year ago and it
233
234 48
235 00:10:08,550 ~-~-> 00:10:18,540
236 makes them feel like they're, they're informed and or plugged in as to what the
237 markets going to do. And you see these guys on social media, they're the
238
239 49
240 00:10:18,540 ~-~-> 00:10:32,520
241 godfather of technical analysis, whatever, but they do not have faith in
242 underlying market making concepts and reason why they don't know them. If we
243
244 50
245 00:10:32,520 ~-~-> 00:10:44,580
246 know that the likelihood is a devaluation on this currency, which is currently
247 and has been for, over a year now been underway for all the cryptocurrencies,
248
249 51
250 00:10:44,850 ~-~-> 00:10:57,240
251 specifically Bitcoin. Now only I'll keep my conversation germane to this
252 specific crypto, Bitcoin only, all the other ones, they're all in the same boat,
253
254 52
255 00:10:57,240 ~-~-> 00:11:06,480
256 if you want to call it that. I've already said ripples going lower. I like 15
257 cents on ripple, I think it's going to go there and just dash all the hopes of
258
259 53
260 00:11:06,480 ~-~-> 00:11:15,540
261 all those people that were swearing by God, it's going to be in the next bastion
262 of new enterprise. I don't see it and believe it in, you know, I don't have any
263
264 54
265 00:11:15,720 ~-~-> 00:11:28,380
266 skin in the race. What's important about that is I'm objective. I'm not holding
267 something with an emotional commitment to it. I don't have hopes that I'm going
268
269 55
270 00:11:28,380 ~-~-> 00:11:38,040
271 to make money out of it. And I don't care if I'm wrong. But everything I've
272 said, with the exception of one call made in August, I've been right about. So
273
274 56
275 00:11:39,270 ~-~-> 00:11:44,610
276 does that mean follow everything I'm telling you? And believe me, No, I don't
277 want you to believe me, I want you to be a skeptic, I want you to go through
278
279 57
280 00:11:44,610 ~-~-> 00:11:51,300
281 everything I'm stating here and test and seeing way if what I'm saying is, in
282 fact, the truth and go back on my Twitter feed and see what I've said was, in
283
284 58
285 00:11:51,300 ~-~-> 00:11:59,160
286 fact, what happened. That's all I'm asking you to do, actually, you can do
287 nothing, you can just turn this video off as as a bunch of shit. And go about
288
289 59
290 00:11:59,160 ~-~-> 00:12:08,730
291 your way. And that's fine, too. I'm not talking to you, I'm talking to you in
292 his will that asked me to do this. So when I look for price action, to give me
293
294 60
295 00:12:08,730 ~-~-> 00:12:23,040
296 signatures that it's going to do one or another scenario, if if I have a an
297 Outlook or template in mind, because I have several templates that I use that
298
299 61
300 00:12:23,040 ~-~-> 00:12:38,460
301 the market generally will follow. It's taught my mentorship. But the if you look
302 at this old low here, now obviously we've seen it trade to here and hope is
303
304 62
305 00:12:38,490 ~-~-> 00:12:48,570
306 traditional support resistance theory is what we bounced here before, and now he
307 traded here. So now it should go higher. That's not happening. Okay, it's going
308
309 63
310 00:12:48,570 ~-~-> 00:12:57,360
311 to go lower the overall consolidation in here, what I like to look for is what
312 was the move prior to the consolidation. And obviously, without having to go to
313
314 64
315 00:12:57,360 ~-~-> 00:13:09,540
316 the left of the chart, we know what's been going lower. I look for ideal
317 scenarios to support a retail minded perspective, that means I'm looking for
318
319 65
320 00:13:09,540 ~-~-> 00:13:22,650
321 reasons to see where street money or less informed traders will look to take
322 trades in the opposite direction. Because the narrative that's going to be sold
323
324 66
325 00:13:22,650 ~-~-> 00:13:34,170
326 to them is that this thing's going higher. Because the the myth is that it's
327 going to go to the moon eventually. Well, I don't know about that. But
328
329 67
330 00:13:34,170 ~-~-> 00:13:45,240
331 nonetheless, here's a supposedly bullish trendline. Okay, we seen one move here.
332 We found some would be support almost didn't get down to it found a little bit
333
334 68
335 00:13:45,240 ~-~-> 00:13:56,490
336 support here and rolled through. Now I tweeted the chart on the 12th of
337 December, stating that if I ran price on Bitcoin, okay, if I was taking the role
338
339 69
340 00:13:56,520 ~-~-> 00:14:08,880
341 of a market maker for Bitcoin, I would give the scenario where they would show a
342 break in the support, supposedly, of diagonal trend line support, which I have
343
344 70
345 00:14:08,880 ~-~-> 00:14:20,430
346 no faith in, I think it's all horseshit. It's too, too subjective. And there's
347 so many lines that you can draw in there. It's, it's foolishness, okay, I mean,
348
349 71
350 00:14:20,430 ~-~-> 00:14:26,490
351 I knew 15,000 people don't come at me with Well, here, let me just realize where
352 I made money, that's fine. But that's going to be an aberration. It's going to
353
354 72
355 00:14:26,490 ~-~-> 00:14:34,620
356 be one of those times where that's why the textbooks exist. Okay? There's going
357 to be a few examples of this, but I don't have faith in it personally, because
358
359 73
360 00:14:34,620 ~-~-> 00:14:35,790
361 the things I trade with,
362
363 74
364 00:14:36,150 ~-~-> 00:14:49,260
365 or event rather objective. They're very succinct. They're very direct. Okay,
366 they're not gray areas to model with. It doesn't have, well, it could be this it
367
368 75
369 00:14:49,260 ~-~-> 00:14:59,280
370 could be that it's, it's this, okay. And one of the things that I like looking
371 for is they give these little bounces off of these supposedly lines, okay, and
372
373 76
374 00:14:59,280 ~-~-> 00:15:08,160
375 it paints a narrative. In the retail minded trader, they think this is support.
376 So if they're going to be buying in here, where's their stop loss going to be
377
378 77
379 00:15:08,820 ~-~-> 00:15:19,350
380 right below the most recent low? Well, that's what I was showing in my diagram,
381 run below it. So it kills the buys immediately, and then gives a false hope that
382
383 78
384 00:15:19,350 ~-~-> 00:15:28,680
385 it wants to go higher by breaking above, but what it's really targeting is this
386 little area right in here shot clean, that is, you'll smooth. Anytime you see a
387
388 79
389 00:15:28,680 ~-~-> 00:15:40,680
390 level of price action where the tops of the candles are very uniform. That is
391 going to be a trap. Okay, this is market making 101 this is exactly where the
392
393 80
394 00:15:40,680 ~-~-> 00:15:51,420
395 markets going to go. That's exactly what you see my chart, a little hand drawn.
396 If I controlled and ran price on Bitcoin, this whole move right here was that
397
398 81
399 00:15:51,420 ~-~-> 00:16:01,290
400 very moment. As price trades to this, I don't view that as a breakout to the
401 upside, I don't see that as a continuation on the upside. If you look at all the
402
403 82
404 00:16:01,290 ~-~-> 00:16:11,820
405 Twitter heroes, they're all excited at this point. Okay, prior to me doing my
406 December 12, post about what I thought was going to happen. There's a lot of
407
408 83
409 00:16:11,820 ~-~-> 00:16:20,700
410 people that argued this point, but the ones that trust me, they'll more or less
411 expected something this basically the same thing because of what I teach or run
412
413 84
414 00:16:20,700 ~-~-> 00:16:33,300
415 on stops. What makes this powerful is we're looking for the underlying
416 direction. Okay, and this is not to do income specific trend lines, just
417
418 85
419 00:16:33,870 ~-~-> 00:16:43,920
420 reminding us that the overall institutional order flow on this asset, if you
421 want to call it that is bearish. Banks are selling the shit out of this, okay,
422
423 86
424 00:16:43,920 ~-~-> 00:16:51,750
425 they're killing it, whether you want to accept it or not, you can be fanboys for
426 the rest of your life. I'm just telling you the cold hard truth. Soon as they
427
428 87
429 00:16:51,750 ~-~-> 00:17:01,170
430 put it on the futures market, I told everyone, it's dead, they're going to kill
431 it. And that's exactly what they've done. Now, argue with me all you want go on
432
433 88
434 00:17:01,170 ~-~-> 00:17:12,960
435 social media and get all the stupid shit that you want to post about whatever
436 you think it isn't changing the facts, Bitcoin is going lower. So what I do is I
437
438 89
439 00:17:12,960 ~-~-> 00:17:23,040
440 draw up levels that I think are going to be probable in terms of downside
441 objectives. Now, it doesn't mean it's going to stop at these levels. It's not to
442
443 90
444 00:17:23,040 ~-~-> 00:17:36,360
445 support a buying point. Okay. And that's the other thing I want to talk about.
446 When I go over things, I don't do like an A or B scenario, and come back to
447
448 91
449 00:17:36,360 ~-~-> 00:17:44,940
450 later on and see how smart I was because b didn't pan out a did. I only stick to
451 one narrative, in the narrative I talked about is the one that the market does.
452
453 92
454 00:17:45,780 ~-~-> 00:17:54,270
455 I don't look for outs, I don't do any kind of, well, here's Plan B, if it
456 doesn't work that way, so that way I say face and build cloud on social media, I
457
458 93
459 00:17:54,270 ~-~-> 00:18:06,210
460 only call one direction. That's it, I call one direction I call a specific
461 target. That's it, and my shit pans out. I don't know why anybody would sit
462
463 94
464 00:18:06,210 ~-~-> 00:18:13,650
465 there and listen to someone that has all these squiggly lines. And if it does
466 this, it's going to go up here, if it does this, it's gonna go down here. There
467
468 95
469 00:18:13,650 ~-~-> 00:18:23,400
470 is a lot of that shit on Twitter. And to me, you're better off not looking at
471 that. Because really what it's doing is it's giving you something entirely
472
473 96
474 00:18:23,940 ~-~-> 00:18:31,140
475 different to look at. And neither one of them are building an idea in your mind
476 of what you should do. In fact, you probably are looking at that chart or that
477
478 97
479 00:18:31,140 ~-~-> 00:18:40,110
480 person on social media with a preconceived idea about what you think is going to
481 happen. And guess what, they've now introduced two other scenarios that you
482
483 98
484 00:18:40,110 ~-~-> 00:18:50,070
485 didn't expect, and neither one are likely to pan out. So now you have three
486 ideal scenarios, right? They're all ideal, the original one you thought of. And
487
488 99
489 00:18:50,070 ~-~-> 00:19:03,450
490 the two other ones that this schmuck on Twitter wants to promote as theory.
491 You're doing it wrong. And I'm not saying Follow me. I'm just stating that if
492
493 100
494 00:19:03,450 ~-~-> 00:19:13,920
495 you're going to be a trader, if you're going to be developing, looking for other
496 people's ideas or support around an idea that you may or may not have is
497
498 101
499 00:19:13,920 ~-~-> 00:19:24,660
500 actually going to be detrimental to your development. All I stated on Twitter as
501 it relates to crypto is it's going lower and I'll give you reasons why and when
502
503 102
504 00:19:24,720 ~-~-> 00:19:25,530
505 it should do it.
506
507 103
508 00:19:26,220 ~-~-> 00:19:36,330
509 Not if it does this, I'm gonna buy it. I've never said I'm buying. I'm buying
510 Bitcoin I've remained bearish have never said those types of things, except for
511
512 104
513 00:19:36,330 ~-~-> 00:19:47,370
514 one call in August. I suggested it could rally up if it did one thing but then
515 in that scenario, I didn't say but if it doesn't go up, I'm going to do this.
516
517 105
518 00:19:47,400 ~-~-> 00:19:56,430
519 No. I said this would be a stop and it would be a wrong trade transaction. It
520 would simply be a loss. That's the difference between someone that understands
521
522 106
523 00:19:56,430 ~-~-> 00:20:08,700
524 how to trade and someone that wants to look smart or build to cloud. And that's
525 usually where that same individual would never take the other side of the trade.
526
527 107
528 00:20:08,730 ~-~-> 00:20:16,800
529 They, they're signing internally with one of those perspectives that they've
530 shared online. But they're never going to commit to the one that they're really
531
532 108
533 00:20:16,800 ~-~-> 00:20:26,310
534 signing with, or maybe even put a transaction behind. And I don't believe any of
535 them really doing transactions either. Not even on a demo basis, either. So what
536
537 109
538 00:20:26,310 ~-~-> 00:20:35,610
539 are you left with? You're left with a decision of, are you just watching this
540 person because of its morbid curiosity that drives you to keep going back to
541
542 110
543 00:20:35,610 ~-~-> 00:20:44,550
544 their Twitter? And maybe that's the case with me? Or are you really getting
545 something from it, because if you're just getting a dopamine drop, well, you can
546
547 111
548 00:20:44,550 ~-~-> 00:20:51,780
549 get that somewhere else. And you should get it from your own experiences in
550 trading don't support these Twitter heroes that are unproven. Because if they
551
552 112
553 00:20:51,780 ~-~-> 00:21:00,750
554 have all these AB scenarios, okay, and they haven't really said, this is the one
555 that's going to pan out, that doesn't mean shit, it doesn't mean anything. It
556
557 113
558 00:21:00,750 ~-~-> 00:21:13,500
559 just means that these are hypothetical scenarios. And I have created an an
560 opportunity where I can be right in either sense. And just like a magician has a
561
562 114
563 00:21:13,530 ~-~-> 00:21:21,480
564 concept called a magician's force. If we were in the same room together, I could
565 force a card on you about 70 different ways, and you would never know how I did
566
567 115
568 00:21:21,480 ~-~-> 00:21:30,840
569 it. They're all different, but it's the same concept, I'm giving you the card,
570 you thought you had a free choice of if we're watching scenarios be presented by
571
572 116
573 00:21:30,840 ~-~-> 00:21:39,870
574 someone, okay. Invariably, what happens is the new trader or the new board, or
575 someone that's just really just feeling down about their inability to find
576
577 117
578 00:21:39,870 ~-~-> 00:21:49,530
579 consistency, they want someone put these multiple scenarios up, okay. And what
580 happens is, one of them might come close to peak panning out, it might be very
581
582 118
583 00:21:49,530 ~-~-> 00:21:57,960
584 close to it, it doesn't really unfold exactly like they state or show and
585 scribble lines, if it does this, it'll be a buy. If it does this, it'll be a
586
587 119
588 00:21:57,960 ~-~-> 00:22:07,290
589 sell, I can't stay it irks the shit out of me. Because that's not someone that
590 understands what's going on. A trader doesn't make decisions like that. Okay,
591
592 120
593 00:22:07,440 ~-~-> 00:22:17,250
594 that's someone that says talking about things that someone that just wants to
595 look smart after the fact. side with the market, that's going to be most likely
596
597 121
598 00:22:17,250 ~-~-> 00:22:26,880
599 to be profitable, the direction that's going to happen in your mind side with
600 that and stick with that don't get the double sided narrative, okay? Because the
601
602 122
603 00:22:26,880 ~-~-> 00:22:36,480
604 noob will come back and say, Wow, look at that ledge. Look at that guy. He's so
605 smart. He's this, he's that he's full of shit, because all he did was let you
606
607 123
608 00:22:36,480 ~-~-> 00:22:47,160
609 decide in your own mind after the fact, what you thought was all along his
610 intentions or his motives behind doing it. Don't believe me? Go back and look at
611
612 124
613 00:22:47,160 ~-~-> 00:23:02,310
614 all that bullshit, because that's all it is. Now going on with presently what we
615 see here. The market first has to give the the the notion and provide the
616
617 125
618 00:23:02,310 ~-~-> 00:23:11,730
619 evidence to the traders that it's going to move. Now obviously, the
620 institutional workflow is bearish, we understand that when the markets in
621
622 126
623 00:23:11,730 ~-~-> 00:23:23,490
624 consolidation, what we want to see is a low be taken. That's this one right
625 here. Once the market breaks down like that, what that has done is upset the
626
627 127
628 00:23:23,550 ~-~-> 00:23:32,760
629 underlying sentiment during this consolidation. So here we have that suppose a
630 trendline. Okay, and folks that were looking for this to provide support, they
631
632 128
633 00:23:32,760 ~-~-> 00:23:43,110
634 would have bought in here with expectation of having a stop here just below
635 that, and or right below here, either or either scenario. But when they see this
636
637 129
638 00:23:43,110 ~-~-> 00:23:50,670
639 breaking that suppose that trend line, their bullishness is going to be tested,
640 if their stop hasn't been hit, they're going to be thinking, Okay, maybe I'm
641
642 130
643 00:23:50,670 ~-~-> 00:23:59,010
644 wrong. Maybe I need to change directions, because I have to always be in the
645 marketplace, thinking like a retail trader, they may look at this and say, Well,
646
647 131
648 00:23:59,010 ~-~-> 00:24:07,560
649 I'm going to trade that retest of the broken trendline. And I'll go short there.
650 And I'll use this safe spot here because this is clearly resistance. All this
651
652 132
653 00:24:07,560 ~-~-> 00:24:17,520
654 does is to build a greater interest in this level, to put liquidity in the form
655 of a buy stocks that buy stock liquidity, or as I call it, a liquidity pool that
656
657 133
658 00:24:17,520 ~-~-> 00:24:18,600
659 will build
660
661 134
662 00:24:20,130 ~-~-> 00:24:32,310
663 a willing base to sell into who wants to sell it, they're informed money, like
664 myself and the people that follow me. I tell them exactly where smart money will
665
666 135
667 00:24:32,370 ~-~-> 00:24:42,720
668 engage, why they're trying to get price there, because it's going to be in a
669 stablished effort to get it to back below this low here. So right in here.
670
671 136
672 00:24:45,810 ~-~-> 00:24:55,650
673 Classic market making strategy is you want to see a break lower first, some kind
674 of a narrative where it drops lower it can be simply running on oh well. I
675
676 137
677 00:24:55,650 ~-~-> 00:25:03,720
678 always like to look for a trendline not because I like trend lines to trade off
679 of them. Because I'm what I'm doing is I'm taking the the theory and the belief
680
681 138
682 00:25:03,720 ~-~-> 00:25:13,200
683 structure around trend lines and using it against and exploiting the retail
684 minded traders. I do it all the time, every single week on Twitter. In forex, I
685
686 139
687 00:25:13,200 ~-~-> 00:25:22,350
688 do it every single day just about in forex, and this stuff repeats over and over
689 and over again. And that's the reason why you have that high 90% likelihood that
690
691 140
692 00:25:22,350 ~-~-> 00:25:35,130
693 you're gonna lose your money, because you believe in this bullshit. So right in
694 here, if we have an unknown amount of buy stocks, we don't know how much it is,
695
696 141
697 00:25:35,130 ~-~-> 00:25:42,930
698 I don't care. I don't need to know that. You know, I had some guy on Twitter,
699 say, go over to bit Mex. And you'll see that the crypto markets don't trade like
700
701 142
702 00:25:42,930 ~-~-> 00:25:54,450
703 that. Okay, if it's trading, it's going to do this. This is market making
704 period. Okay, nonetheless. So selling short here with some stop above here, we
705
706 143
707 00:25:54,450 ~-~-> 00:26:02,670
708 don't know how high it's going to go. Why don't you? Why don't you know how high
709 it's going to go. If you don't know how high it's going to go, then you probably
710
711 144
712 00:26:02,670 ~-~-> 00:26:10,680
713 shouldn't take the trade above these equal highs is going to be a form of
714 liquidity, it's going to be a bunch of buy stops. Why? Because you have traders
715
716 145
717 00:26:10,680 ~-~-> 00:26:17,670
718 that are already shorting here, they're going to trail their stop loss there, or
719 they're going to see this trend line here. And then when they trade to it,
720
721 146
722 00:26:17,670 ~-~-> 00:26:28,770
723 they're going to put a stop loss rate above that, because they want a really,
724 really ultra short, tight stop. Same idea. When we see that, above these equal
725
726 147
727 00:26:28,770 ~-~-> 00:26:37,170
728 highs, all we have to do is look for the next level liquidity to the left of it,
729 that's right in here, right in there. So now we have a range, we have this low
730
731 148
732 00:26:37,170 ~-~-> 00:26:52,380
733 here and we have this high here, watch. Okay, I'm going to take the low of that
734 range. So there it is. Now, the 50 levels right there. All I'm going to do is
735
736 149
737 00:26:52,380 ~-~-> 00:27:09,060
738 put a line right on that 50. So here's the zero 23 638 and 50. Right there.
739 Right, so now we have our specific price level right here. It's in the middle of
740
741 150
742 00:27:09,060 ~-~-> 00:27:19,050
743 the consolidation, private move of these equal highs, which is going to form a
744 buy stop liquidity pool. Now this first punch up in here, it may take a first
745
746 151
747 00:27:19,290 ~-~-> 00:27:32,850
748 layer of stops away. then boom. It's the specific price level that's outlined as
749 I teach it. This is market structure, ICT level, there's a lot of market
750
751 152
752 00:27:32,850 ~-~-> 00:27:42,270
753 structure ideas that usually are talked about through like Elliott Wave, which I
754 think is a bunch of bullshit too. And I'm not trying to be disrespectful as much
755
756 153
757 00:27:42,270 ~-~-> 00:27:53,160
758 as it may sound it I know there's people out there that are profitable trading
759 Elliott Wave. But if you studied my concepts, I guarantee you, you will see an
760
761 154
762 00:27:53,160 ~-~-> 00:28:01,560
763 improvement on your understanding of price action, and you'll slowly work away
764 from the Elliott Wave stuff. But right in here, that's where price trades. Okay,
765
766 155
767 00:28:01,560 ~-~-> 00:28:13,020
768 is that random? Hell no, it's not random. Now, once it trades here, it's over.
769 It's not going higher. But when a noob sees this, they're thinking, wow, you
770
771 156
772 00:28:13,020 ~-~-> 00:28:22,500
773 know, this thing has gone up. This trend line is no longer any good. So let me
774 get rid of that. So now it's going higher. I'm gonna buy this support because
775
776 157
777 00:28:22,500 ~-~-> 00:28:32,940
778 look, here it is resistance broken now becomes support. So now what are they
779 doing? They're buying it. It's going to the moon baby. I see T's wrong on this
780
781 158
782 00:28:32,940 ~-~-> 00:28:45,900
783 one. I can't wait to see how he responds to that tweet. Where's the Where's the
784 other side of the market while they ran the buy stops who sold those by stops
785
786 159
787 00:28:46,560 ~-~-> 00:28:54,000
788 smart money. So how are they going to get out of that position they're in
789 because they've offered liquidity to those that want to be using the buy stock
790
791 160
792 00:28:54,000 ~-~-> 00:29:05,160
793 to exit or short or use it to be a breakout artist to go higher. because
794 everything's about the moon for whatever reason. Now the liquidity rests here.
795
796 161
797 00:29:08,040 ~-~-> 00:29:17,130
798 Great there and now we're back in line and in sync with the narrative that that
799 whole downside institution order flow, what's been going on for over a year now
800
801 162
802 00:29:17,130 ~-~-> 00:29:29,520
803 and Bitcoin it's going lower. So the buy stocks have been purchased by the stops
804 on shorts or buying on a breakout for underlying Long's they had been
805
806 163
807 00:29:29,520 ~-~-> 00:29:40,260
808 counterparties to Smart Money looking to sell short so they sold here. So
809 there's a book made on them offering liquidity as they would need to be trading
810
811 164
812 00:29:40,290 ~-~-> 00:29:50,310
813 shorts with protection. So they given that that that mode of efficiency for for
814 traders, so they can't complain. They gave them their buy stuff they asked for
815
816 165
817 00:29:50,310 ~-~-> 00:29:57,990
818 it they put their stop loss rate above these equal highs. But now the smart
819 money if taken a position by going short here and they want to see price go
820
821 166
822 00:29:57,990 ~-~-> 00:30:07,980
823 below this low and this low. In this low, because otherwise offering just a
824 liquidity over here, they can't keep a house profitable if they do that. In
825
826 167
827 00:30:07,980 ~-~-> 00:30:17,340
828 other words, the common misnomer is the market makers neutral. Okay? people that
829 believe that have no idea what the fuck they're talking about because they are
830
831 168
832 00:30:17,670 ~-~-> 00:30:25,740
833 means of making a book and offering liquidity, yes. Okay. But that's not what
834 they're doing. They're not making money just primarily on the spread basis of
835
836 169
837 00:30:25,740 ~-~-> 00:30:34,860
838 that, and then that's their whole basis and sound. profitability. No, they're,
839 they're actively participating to you think they're not going to participate
840
841 170
842 00:30:34,860 ~-~-> 00:30:43,200
843 something they're in control up, think about what you just stated, think about
844 these people that you know, go on TV, or they write books, or they go on social
845
846 171
847 00:30:43,200 ~-~-> 00:30:52,620
848 media and sales stuff, I turn all that stuff upside down every single fucking
849 day on Twitter, it's every single day clockwork with me, I show it all the time.
850
851 172
852 00:30:52,740 ~-~-> 00:31:00,120
853 And it's the same stuff. It's not ambiguous, it's always the same structure,
854 it's 180 degrees diametrically opposed from everything you fucking learn in
855
856 173
857 00:31:00,120 ~-~-> 00:31:08,790
858 books, it's as simple as that. You throw the books away, throw them away, stop
859 buying fucking books, they're not teaching you anything except for doing the
860
861 174
862 00:31:08,790 ~-~-> 00:31:17,160
863 wrong thing over and over and over again. So now that the liquidity has been
864 absorbed by stocks have been Counterparty to short sellers on the Smart Money
865
866 175
867 00:31:17,160 ~-~-> 00:31:28,710
868 side, the market is free to trade lower. And the market trades lower. Runs
869 quickly to the stock because they don't want anybody getting out and runs this
870
871 176
872 00:31:28,710 ~-~-> 00:31:40,710
873 stop and it runs below here. The markets presently hanging around right above
874 this level here. Why is it? Why is it doing that? Because it's giving traders
875
876 177
877 00:31:40,770 ~-~-> 00:31:52,560
878 the hope aspect, they want to see support found here and you want to see a trade
879 all the way up to 10,000 12,000 50,000 150,000. There's nothing in here stating
880
881 178
882 00:31:52,590 ~-~-> 00:32:04,950
883 that that's going to happen. The most probable outcome is going to be it's going
884 to 3000. Now, why 3000? If we go back out to a daily chart, once September 15th
885
886 179
887 00:32:04,950 ~-~-> 00:32:19,170
888 of 2017 we have a low of 2975. So what's the round number right above that?
889 3000. So 3000, to me is the draw on price that we're that's where price on
890
891 180
892 00:32:19,170 ~-~-> 00:32:28,860
893 Bitcoin most likely will go go to it's obviously going to have liquidity below
894 that low. So it could be in the form of 2800. It could be like 2500 because it
895
896 181
897 00:32:28,860 ~-~-> 00:32:39,480
898 eats into all of this area in here. Okay, and then we have the strong likelihood
899 if we get really animated, we could see it run below these lows here. But
900
901 182
902 00:32:39,480 ~-~-> 00:32:49,350
903 ultimately, bitcoins go into $100. Okay, and like I said, it's not to be
904 disrespectful to anyone, you know, I understand everyone that was making money
905
906 183
907 00:32:49,350 ~-~-> 00:32:57,990
908 here, and now you're not, but I told you back here, it wasn't going on. It
909 wasn't hitting 20,000 go back on Twitter, you'll see it. I even show it to you
910
911 184
912 00:32:57,990 ~-~-> 00:33:10,110
913 in chart I explain it to you in a chart. Why it's not going to happen. And it's
914 happened ever since then. So hopefully it hasn't upset you too much. If it has
915
916 185
917 00:33:10,110 ~-~-> 00:33:18,630
918 it's not my intentions is obviously meant to get you thinking independently and
919 get off of the social media worshipping of nobodies because they don't know what
920
921 186
922 00:33:18,630 ~-~-> 00:33:29,340
923 they're doing. And getting lucky with one of two scenarios is placed on a chart.
924 That's not prognostication, it's guessing until about the next time which Good
925
926 187
927 00:33:29,340 ~-~-> 00:33:30,540
928 luck and good trading