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ICT YT - 2025-09-23 - Focus On Index Futures September 22 2025

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2025-09-27 14:16
1 00:00:06 --> 00:00:13 ICT: So welcome back. And today is September, 22 2025 this is focus on
2 00:00:13 --> 00:00:20 index futures, and I'll be looking at the December contract for NASDAQ E Mini
3 00:00:20 --> 00:00:27 futures. When I'm in a little bit better of a state of mind. I just lost a member
4 00:00:27 --> 00:00:33 of my family. And if you're a pet lover, if you're a pet parent, you you know
5 00:00:34 --> 00:00:38 what it's like losing some so I'm kind of going through that, and I'm not quite
6 00:00:38 --> 00:00:42 really there. So we're just going to look at the NQ. I will be ringing in the
7 00:00:43 --> 00:00:50 ES as well, and I have a little bit more capacity to spend focus on that, in
8 00:00:50 --> 00:00:58 addition to just the NQ. Right on left hand side, we have the December
9 00:00:58 --> 00:01:03 contract, Christmas NQ daily chart, and on the right hand side, it's the five
10 00:01:03 --> 00:01:08 minute chart, as I mentioned, we worked off this volume imbalance, and really
11 00:01:08 --> 00:01:14 had a nice run up here last week Friday. We used the volume imbalance, as I
12 00:01:14 --> 00:01:19 mentioned in the recording for Friday, and I told you, have these quadrant
13 00:01:19 --> 00:01:23 levels on your chart, and the market opened below, and we're going to look at
14 00:01:23 --> 00:01:27 the opening range in the next slide here. But we opened lower than where we
15 00:01:27 --> 00:01:32 closed on Friday. We traded lower down into consequent encouragement, which is
16 00:01:32 --> 00:01:36 a little bit below it, and then rejected all of that and came out and exploded to
17 00:01:36 --> 00:01:41 all time highs above 25,000 so now I want to counsel you remember how I
18 00:01:41 --> 00:01:47 taught you last week how it's very important to never really try to expect
19 00:01:47 --> 00:01:51 or pick the top in a marketed string at all time highs, because it can just keep
20 00:01:51 --> 00:01:56 going and you have no idea where it's going to go. Nobody does like I don't
21 00:01:56 --> 00:02:00 know. Nobody else is going to know. So the only thing you do is focus on taking
22 00:02:00 --> 00:02:05 continuous buy signals until they no longer work. That's the only strategy
23 00:02:05 --> 00:02:08 that's going to hold up over time. And when you're trading with a market, it's
24 00:02:08 --> 00:02:14 continuously it can all time highs over here on the London session, London kill
25 00:02:14 --> 00:02:20 zone here, between one o'clock and 5am we have a nice bears fair value gap
26 00:02:20 --> 00:02:29 here. It drops down into the consequence encroachment of that premium wick. So
27 00:02:29 --> 00:02:33 it's going to act as a discount array here. And notice it goes down in the
28 00:02:33 --> 00:02:37 lower half of it. But it doesn't spend much time there. This goes below here,
29 00:02:38 --> 00:02:42 accumulates at the consequence level there, and now look what it's doing. It
30 00:02:42 --> 00:02:47 fails to touch it again, and then rallies up. Shift in market structure,
31 00:02:47 --> 00:02:54 blows your fair value gap now during the New York am session. Now I'm saying that
32 00:02:54 --> 00:02:59 because it's basically 7am to 11am you can break that up into pre market
33 00:02:59 --> 00:03:06 session, or the am session, regular trading hours at 930 to 11. Okay, that
34 00:03:06 --> 00:03:11 I'm just encapsulating this, this for brevity sake. And we have a bullish fair
35 00:03:11 --> 00:03:16 value gap here, trades into that perfectly runs higher. We have a,
36 00:03:18 --> 00:03:22 essentially a measuring gap. So if you look at the low to that gap there. It's
37 00:03:22 --> 00:03:27 about halfway between there and there, so between here and here, that's in
38 00:03:27 --> 00:03:32 close proximity to where a halfway point would be. And then we have a fair value
39 00:03:32 --> 00:03:38 gap that stays open, rallies off of that full shoulder block change in state
40 00:03:38 --> 00:03:42 delivery after a retracement the bodies respecting that, and then rallies
41 00:03:42 --> 00:03:49 higher, creating an amazing, in my opinion, run above the 25,000 mark. Now,
42 00:03:49 --> 00:03:55 if we look at this through the lens of a one minute, we can see that we had
43 00:03:55 --> 00:03:59 relative equal lows here in Friday's session. And we're looking at regular
44 00:03:59 --> 00:04:02 trading hours now, not electronic trading hours. So this will showcase the
45 00:04:02 --> 00:04:08 difference between previous days close and today's regular session opening at
46 00:04:08 --> 00:04:13 930 Eastern time. So sell side liquidity here, the market opens below that. The
47 00:04:13 --> 00:04:19 opening range here, the first 30 minutes of trading is encapsulated with this
48 00:04:19 --> 00:04:24 darker gray box, and I've graded that as well. So here's the lower quadrant,
49 00:04:24 --> 00:04:29 consequent origin. Upper quadrant, the market opening here trades up to
50 00:04:29 --> 00:04:33 consequent origin, which is 70% likelihood it's going to do that there's
51 00:04:33 --> 00:04:37 a cap lower and then we trade right up to the quadrant. The upper quadrant,
52 00:04:37 --> 00:04:42 rather hits it perfectly, to the tick, and then drops back down to the lower
53 00:04:42 --> 00:04:45 quadrant the bodies respected, but it also trades one more time into this
54 00:04:45 --> 00:04:50 relatively cool low liquidity pool. Tags that one more time break away. Gap
55 00:04:51 --> 00:04:57 trades above short term highs if I pull share value gap there in a minor sell
56 00:04:57 --> 00:05:01 side liquidity pool after trading two last. Friday's high, but not breaching
57 00:05:01 --> 00:05:06 it trades lower swipes the minor sell side that would have been trailed on
58 00:05:06 --> 00:05:10 longs, trading into the bullish fair value gap there. Then we have another
59 00:05:10 --> 00:05:14 run higher shift in market structure on a lower time frame here, bullish fair
60 00:05:14 --> 00:05:18 value gap trades to it here, and notice it doesn't even trade to consequent
61 00:05:18 --> 00:05:23 encouragement, but reverses its role in delivering lower prices. Now I'm back in
62 00:05:23 --> 00:05:28 sync with going higher, rips above last Friday's daily high, buy side liquidity
63 00:05:28 --> 00:05:34 pool, and then creates a retracement in here. We're going to look at and scrub
64 00:05:34 --> 00:05:38 the chart over a little bit, but notice this box in here. This is all going to
65 00:05:38 --> 00:05:46 be condensed and shortened in size as I move forward into the chart. Here's that
66 00:05:46 --> 00:05:50 area I was referring to. Now we get to see the entirety of the day at the time
67 00:05:50 --> 00:05:54 of the snapshot. Those are those highs for last Friday's daily high side
68 00:05:54 --> 00:06:00 liquidity pool hits it. It drops down, which is a five minute bullish order
69 00:06:00 --> 00:06:04 block. So I showed you a five minute chart first. That's this order block
70 00:06:04 --> 00:06:07 there. So it's going to look different because you're looking at through the
71 00:06:07 --> 00:06:10 lens of a one minute chart. So when you're annotating your charts, make sure
72 00:06:10 --> 00:06:14 you're keeping track of what PD array you're annotating on a higher time frame
73 00:06:14 --> 00:06:17 when you drop down a lower time frame, because this is going to be much more
74 00:06:17 --> 00:06:21 salient when you view it from that five minute chart again, and we rally higher.
75 00:06:21 --> 00:06:26 And this keeps on pressing higher. Notice, there's no lunchtime macro, no
76 00:06:26 --> 00:06:32 retracement back to here's 10am fine. Hello. Here's that one, and we have this
77 00:06:32 --> 00:06:36 one here to noon. Well, neither one of those were even traded to because we're
78 00:06:36 --> 00:06:40 blasting off. The markets becoming parabolic. So when it starts to do
79 00:06:40 --> 00:06:44 things like this. I'm not calling a top. It just means that we're probably near
80 00:06:44 --> 00:06:48 some kind of an intermediate term height forming. It's, I don't believe it's
81 00:06:48 --> 00:06:52 there yet, but it's chilling characteristics of it possibly, you
82 00:06:52 --> 00:06:54 know, forming, maybe this week,
83 00:07:04 --> 00:07:08 all right, folks, thanks for your patience today. I said I was going to
84 00:07:08 --> 00:07:14 have one for you this morning, but just not feeling it right now, so I will talk
85 00:07:14 --> 00:07:17 to you tomorrow, Lord willing, until I talk to you, then wish good luck and
86 00:07:17 --> 00:07:17 good trading.