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ICT YT - 2025-09-23 - Focus On Forex September 22 2025

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2025-09-27 14:16
1 00:00:05 --> 00:00:12 ICT: Hello folks, welcome back. So today is September 22 2025 and this is the
2 00:00:12 --> 00:00:21 focus on forex. We're looking at the US dollar fiber or USD and POUND DOLLAR or
3 00:00:21 --> 00:00:21 cable,
4 00:00:27 --> 00:00:30 right? This is the dollar index the daily charts on the left hand side. As I
5 00:00:30 --> 00:00:35 mentioned last week, we traded up into this volume imbalance here, and we
6 00:00:35 --> 00:00:40 traded one more time into that just breached the outside high end of it with
7 00:00:40 --> 00:00:44 the wick daily range, because I mentioned that there would be a
8 00:00:45 --> 00:00:51 likelihood of this down closed candle and this up close candle becoming a
9 00:00:51 --> 00:00:57 inversion fair value gap. So we saw some sensitivity here last Friday, and it may
10 00:00:57 --> 00:01:02 need to come back down and retest that and trade into it now, since it's
11 00:01:02 --> 00:01:06 already responded on the upper quadrant of this city, which we've looked at and
12 00:01:06 --> 00:01:13 anticipated as a inversion period, you got that's bullish, the midpoint of this
13 00:01:15 --> 00:01:23 city here, that red line Here, price needs to only be in the upper half now I
14 00:01:23 --> 00:01:27 can touch the midpoint. It's better that it doesn't and if it starts to resume
15 00:01:27 --> 00:01:31 going higher and attack these relative equal highs after it trades into the
16 00:01:31 --> 00:01:36 inversion Fairbank up on the daily chart, that might be the fuel that's
17 00:01:36 --> 00:01:40 required for it to trade up into, say, this liquidity pool that's next on the
18 00:01:40 --> 00:01:45 daily chart. Overall, we're still inside of a large range, but I'm looking for
19 00:01:46 --> 00:01:50 signs that we've put an intermediate term low in that's kind of like where
20 00:01:50 --> 00:01:56 we're at lot of wartime stuff on the News Front. So it's, it's going to be
21 00:01:56 --> 00:02:00 very knee jerk reactionary type responses in dollar index going forward
22 00:02:00 --> 00:02:05 into the end of the year. So breaking it down on the five minute chart, you can
23 00:02:05 --> 00:02:09 see we worked up in a daily volume imbalance. This red area here is this
24 00:02:09 --> 00:02:12 area on the daily chart to the left. So you see that little, tiny little spike
25 00:02:12 --> 00:02:17 above on the daily chart. That's this here, and crossing over the midnight
26 00:02:17 --> 00:02:22 into today's trading on the 22nd of September, the market breaks down,
27 00:02:22 --> 00:02:25 creates a small, little bearish fair value gap, great and consequent
28 00:02:25 --> 00:02:29 encroachment of that daily volume and balance. Note that I don't have the line
29 00:02:29 --> 00:02:33 on there, because it would be too much in one single little area. And I want
30 00:02:33 --> 00:02:37 to, kind of like summarize every market I cover on one screenshot like this. It
31 00:02:37 --> 00:02:41 allows me to get through it quickly and straight, straight to the point. So I
32 00:02:41 --> 00:02:45 counsel you to put a mid level line on that rectangle on your daily chart with
33 00:02:45 --> 00:02:48 this volume imbalance between the two candlestick bodies there, and you can
34 00:02:48 --> 00:02:52 see that it's respected that consequent encroachment with that bearish fair
35 00:02:52 --> 00:02:56 value gap market breaks down another fair value got there. And notice it
36 00:02:56 --> 00:03:00 doesn't get up into the volume and balance when it trades up into these two
37 00:03:00 --> 00:03:07 candlestick wicks so that bearish fair value gap here, it sends price lower,
38 00:03:07 --> 00:03:11 attacking the sell side in here, deeper than it did the first time there's a
39 00:03:11 --> 00:03:20 small, little shallow probe over here, hey, market breaks Lower, goes into
40 00:03:20 --> 00:03:28 another fair value gap there as well. And I'm looking at this across these two
41 00:03:28 --> 00:03:33 candlesticks here, because this was actually shown as a single fair value
42 00:03:33 --> 00:03:37 gap on the two, I'm sorry, on the 10 minute chart. So looking at that right
43 00:03:37 --> 00:03:41 there, I'm blending that. So anytime you ever see me annotate a chart if I share
44 00:03:41 --> 00:03:45 a chart on Twitter, or what we call x Now, it may look like I'm drawing the
45 00:03:45 --> 00:03:50 fair value gap incorrectly, but I'm looking at it at a higher time frame. So
46 00:03:50 --> 00:03:54 for instance, this is showing a five minute chart. Viewing this over the lens
47 00:03:54 --> 00:03:58 of a 10 minute chart, this would be a single cell set of bounds by side
48 00:03:58 --> 00:04:04 inefficiency. So that fair value gap, there is a 10 Minute and it's just a
49 00:04:04 --> 00:04:09 matter of going through all the time frames. And I go through a myriad of
50 00:04:09 --> 00:04:12 different time frames. I don't just go through the static ones that everybody
51 00:04:12 --> 00:04:17 goes to. If there's a cluster or a consolidation of price action, I'll go
52 00:04:17 --> 00:04:21 down to every single one minute interval. So what I mean by that, one
53 00:04:21 --> 00:04:26 minute two, minute three, minute four, minute 56789, 1011, 12, and look for
54 00:04:26 --> 00:04:32 refinement in the inefficiency. And it's something that you should be doing now,
55 00:04:32 --> 00:04:35 when price is stretched out, like for instance, in this portion of the price
56 00:04:35 --> 00:04:39 run, you wouldn't need to do something like that, because you can see it on one
57 00:04:39 --> 00:04:44 or two and it's obvious or the imbalance is so the market reacts. Here, look at
58 00:04:44 --> 00:04:48 the bodies respecting the consequence of this 10 Minute. But remember, we're on a
59 00:04:48 --> 00:04:51 five minute chart, and I know something like this I'm saying is going to be
60 00:04:51 --> 00:04:55 confusing to some of you, but I promise, if you toggle your chart to 10 Minute,
61 00:04:55 --> 00:04:58 you'll see what I'm referring to, but the midpoint or consequent encouragement
62 00:04:58 --> 00:05:02 is being respected by the buyer. Bodies. Here we break lower. We have a volume
63 00:05:02 --> 00:05:05 imbalance. Market creates a consolidation here. It spikes up into
64 00:05:05 --> 00:05:08 that volume imbalance, lay the candlestick, wick right in there
65 00:05:08 --> 00:05:14 perfectly, and then sells off, gravitating back towards this potential
66 00:05:14 --> 00:05:19 inversion fair value gap that might maybe lend to higher prices to take this
67 00:05:19 --> 00:05:23 out. Or if it fails. This is the point here. If it fails, and trades through
68 00:05:23 --> 00:05:26 the midpoint here and gets down in the lower quadrant, the likelihood of
69 00:05:26 --> 00:05:33 bullishness evaporates considerably, meaning that we may have to revisit that
70 00:05:33 --> 00:05:36 low and go a little bit lower. So this is the catalyst, or line in the sand
71 00:05:36 --> 00:05:41 that determines for me with with the next leg in price action right now, I'm
72 00:05:41 --> 00:05:46 going to stick with like this, potentially presenting itself as a
73 00:05:46 --> 00:05:50 bullish inversion, fair value cap. Truth be told, I have no skin in the race on
74 00:05:50 --> 00:05:53 this, so I don't care if I'm right or wrong, because I'm not trading Forex,
75 00:05:54 --> 00:05:59 but lending my analysis in my opinion and counseling you not to use it as
76 00:05:59 --> 00:06:03 trade advice. Just observe it and study it, and just kind of like peek over my
77 00:06:03 --> 00:06:06 shoulder and keep tabs on what you think versus what I think is going to happen.
78 00:06:07 --> 00:06:12 Maybe the market trades lower during the London kill zone at 5am then we have a
79 00:06:12 --> 00:06:15 little consolidation. It rolls over a little bit lower, and we pick back up at
80 00:06:15 --> 00:06:18 seven o'clock in the morning, which is a New York kill zone, treats into a
81 00:06:18 --> 00:06:22 bearish for everybody got there, trades lower right, back into it once more, to
82 00:06:22 --> 00:06:26 attack the relative equal lows where there's sell side there, and we have a
83 00:06:26 --> 00:06:30 New York session reversal, trading back up and leaving these relative equal
84 00:06:30 --> 00:06:36 highs here, breaks lower, small, little inefficiency in there. I didn't draw.
85 00:06:36 --> 00:06:41 And then we went lower once more. And it looks like it wants to dig into this
86 00:06:41 --> 00:06:45 daily potential bullish inversion fair Vega. And again, that's this area here,
87 00:06:46 --> 00:06:50 which I stated, would likely be an interest of mine. Should we go higher
88 00:06:50 --> 00:06:54 when we were trading on that day, and then we went through it. So the next
89 00:06:54 --> 00:06:58 day, on Friday, we opened, traded down into the upper quadrant, which is this
90 00:06:58 --> 00:07:01 line here, and then sent this up into the daily volume of balance. And once we
91 00:07:01 --> 00:07:07 got there, we're pulling back down lower in the attempt, maybe to see this act as
92 00:07:07 --> 00:07:09 a discount array to send it one more time higher.
93 00:07:15 --> 00:07:19 Right, the euro, dollar daily chart on the left. I mentioned this inefficiency
94 00:07:20 --> 00:07:26 in the last passing of my commentary on euro and the bodies have perfectly
95 00:07:26 --> 00:07:30 respected that inefficiency while allowing the wicks to do the damage. So
96 00:07:30 --> 00:07:34 notice how we saw today trade below Friday's low. We traded into that. I'm
97 00:07:34 --> 00:07:39 going to counsel you to add the gradient levels on this discount wick, and you'll
98 00:07:39 --> 00:07:42 see something in here that I'm not showing here, not because I want to hide
99 00:07:42 --> 00:07:46 it from you, but I like to leave little things in here for you to find on your
100 00:07:46 --> 00:07:51 own. And then bodies respect that bullish very, very gap, and it rallies
101 00:07:51 --> 00:07:55 back up into this inefficiency that's shaded in yellow. This is a buy side
102 00:07:55 --> 00:08:00 balance, cell side efficiency, but now we went below it, so trading up to the
103 00:08:00 --> 00:08:04 midpoint, it would be bullish and continuous bullish if it goes above it
104 00:08:04 --> 00:08:10 and then trades. It's an inversion, inversion, breakup. It reclaimed bullish
105 00:08:10 --> 00:08:16 fair value gap in this yellow area on the London kill zone, we see a breakaway
106 00:08:16 --> 00:08:21 gap here. Never trades back down into it, immediate rebalance here to I don't
107 00:08:21 --> 00:08:24 want to annotate here because it's getting busy with a lot of annotations.
108 00:08:24 --> 00:08:27 You can add that to your own bullish fair value gap there, and we have the
109 00:08:27 --> 00:08:30 market trade back down into a bullish fair value gap as well. And that's
110 00:08:30 --> 00:08:34 actually an order block too, but I didn't want to add it because it's too
111 00:08:34 --> 00:08:37 many annotations. You can add it for yours. That's what I'm counseling you to
112 00:08:37 --> 00:08:41 do. And we have this low, this high, and that lower low. So that's a bullish
113 00:08:41 --> 00:08:46 breaker. And we have the order block, which is the two consecutive down closed
114 00:08:46 --> 00:08:51 candles. And that's a change in the state of delivery bullish. So we hit
115 00:08:51 --> 00:08:56 that. And also we're hitting the low of that volume of balance over, I'm sorry,
116 00:08:56 --> 00:09:00 not volume. This the fair value capital daily chart. We're seeing a hit here. So
117 00:09:00 --> 00:09:05 this green box area here, there in the kill zone is basically touching right
118 00:09:05 --> 00:09:09 there on the daily chart. And then we see the extrapolations at the upside a
119 00:09:09 --> 00:09:14 institutional order flow entry drill here, if your bank account that doesn't
120 00:09:14 --> 00:09:18 get filled despite the one ticket, trades below the high of it. And then
121 00:09:18 --> 00:09:25 the consolidation here rips through it, trades up into the lower quadrant level
122 00:09:25 --> 00:09:34 at 1.17829 and that's this level here, the lower quadrant of this old bullish
123 00:09:34 --> 00:09:38 rear value gap. And we had multiple attempts in here kill zone during the
124 00:09:38 --> 00:09:42 New York, New York open, and we break lower to clear up the sell side here,
125 00:09:43 --> 00:09:46 and then it springs higher after creating a fair value gap and trading
126 00:09:46 --> 00:09:50 into a propulsion block. This is the order block here, but then this candle
127 00:09:50 --> 00:09:56 is higher, trades down to halfway, but doesn't close below the halfway. And
128 00:09:56 --> 00:09:59 that's a definition for propulsion block. If you want to know more about
129 00:09:59 --> 00:10:07 the propulsion block. I go to my 2016 mentorship playlist month. Or I go
130 00:10:07 --> 00:10:11 through the PD arrays. The basic PD arrays, I give you an overview of what
131 00:10:11 --> 00:10:16 they are, a simplistic overview. It's not a complete expose of them, but it'll
132 00:10:16 --> 00:10:20 give you more information about what it is. Then market springs through and get
133 00:10:20 --> 00:10:23 through up to the consequent encroachment, making the higher high,
134 00:10:23 --> 00:10:26 which is the consequent encroachment of this old pot, sound and balance, cell
135 00:10:26 --> 00:10:29 sign, efficiency, fair value
136 00:10:35 --> 00:10:38 gap. Now here's the British pound or cable and daily chart. Left hand side. I
137 00:10:38 --> 00:10:41 mentioned on Friday, we traded down to this polish fair value gap, and the
138 00:10:41 --> 00:10:45 bodies were respecting consequent encroachment. That's a midpoint of that
139 00:10:45 --> 00:10:51 after taking out Friday's low. So we have this wick here. I'm added in here,
140 00:10:51 --> 00:10:54 and it's it's a little bit lighter in color versus the ones that are up here.
141 00:10:54 --> 00:10:58 So just be mindful the color change between these and this. And just look at
142 00:10:58 --> 00:11:03 your times and the price. So that way you can see what reference points these
143 00:11:03 --> 00:11:06 levels are in relationship to the daily chart when we're looking over here,
144 00:11:06 --> 00:11:10 because there's a lot of lines over here. So whether we're bullish or
145 00:11:10 --> 00:11:16 bearish, the market will want to go back up into this wick and maybe even trade
146 00:11:16 --> 00:11:19 back up into this area here. So this discount wick, bullish or bears, it
147 00:11:19 --> 00:11:23 doesn't matter. I always look for price to try to gravitate back into these now,
148 00:11:23 --> 00:11:27 if I'm bullish, I want to see it trade into the upper quadrants. If I'm
149 00:11:27 --> 00:11:31 bearish, I want to see it find resistance in the lower half of these
150 00:11:31 --> 00:11:36 discount wicks. Okay, so over here we have the London kill zone, the breakaway
151 00:11:36 --> 00:11:39 cap. Again, like on fiber, we have an institutional or flow entry drill, which
152 00:11:39 --> 00:11:43 is this candlestick. We trade one tick below the previous candle and leave the
153 00:11:43 --> 00:11:47 gap open, then we have a fair value gap there, and it's also occurring right at
154 00:11:47 --> 00:11:51 the consequent encroachment of this bullish fair value gap. See the red
155 00:11:51 --> 00:11:57 line? That price right there is this price. So market hits that, and we also
156 00:11:57 --> 00:12:04 have a fair value gap and a order block, which is changed state delivery. It
157 00:12:04 --> 00:12:08 wicks through it just to tap the fair value gap and the consequent
158 00:12:08 --> 00:12:12 encroachment. There's times when my PD arrays will just allow the market to
159 00:12:12 --> 00:12:16 color outside the lines. When there's a confluence of PD arrays, that's why it's
160 00:12:16 --> 00:12:20 doing that little color outside the lines. It's not randomness. It's the
161 00:12:20 --> 00:12:25 fact that it's going to these more significant PD arrays that's in line
162 00:12:25 --> 00:12:28 with what the present narrative is. So if the market's bullish, it's going to
163 00:12:28 --> 00:12:32 really come down here and offer an opportunity. If it's in close proximity,
164 00:12:32 --> 00:12:36 whatever the lowest PD array is in that cluster of price action, it'll reach for
165 00:12:36 --> 00:12:39 that one, like it does here with the fair value gap. And the bodies are
166 00:12:39 --> 00:12:43 respecting that bullish bear bag gap here and sends it higher, once more,
167 00:12:43 --> 00:12:47 accumulates around the upper quadrant of that old bullish free value gap that's
168 00:12:47 --> 00:12:54 level here and springs out of that comes back down in it's the low of the sell
169 00:12:54 --> 00:12:59 side liquidity pool of September 11 to daily Low. That's this low, right here.
170 00:13:00 --> 00:13:06 Okay, so it sweeps the liquidity below that low here, once more, here, once
171 00:13:06 --> 00:13:10 more, here, and look at the values you're expecting it here, and then sends
172 00:13:10 --> 00:13:12 it higher. Accumulates around lower quadrant
173 00:13:17 --> 00:13:22 of this wicker here is September 11, and the market runs higher, comes back to
174 00:13:22 --> 00:13:29 the lower quadrant. And then this is the high of that September 11 daily discount
175 00:13:29 --> 00:13:33 wick. That's the open on this candlestick, basically. So this wick is
176 00:13:33 --> 00:13:38 below the candlestick, so it's a discount wick, and it's the high of it.
177 00:13:38 --> 00:13:43 That's this level right here, entry, entry, right up into that. So we're
178 00:13:43 --> 00:13:48 going to see what we see in regards to continuation. Should cable go higher. I
179 00:13:48 --> 00:13:51 just cleaned the chart up, took everything off, and just making mention
180 00:13:51 --> 00:13:56 of this. This is the present sell side imbalance that's trading into. And if we
181 00:13:57 --> 00:14:01 get above this high here, what I want to see is how we trade to if at all, if we
182 00:14:01 --> 00:14:04 even get to the midpoint of that, if it's bullish, it'll have no problem
183 00:14:04 --> 00:14:09 getting up to the midpoint and go higher. If it's bearish, it may falter
184 00:14:09 --> 00:14:14 and roll over before getting here, or it needs to trade to the upper, upper but
185 00:14:14 --> 00:14:19 the lower quadrant, level here or this level and fail and then roll over. That
186 00:14:19 --> 00:14:23 would be indicative of weakness. So these are, like, the lines in the sand
187 00:14:23 --> 00:14:26 to determine because we're gonna, again, we're in a consolidation with the dollar
188 00:14:26 --> 00:14:33 index and so many wartime events setting the stage for future military actions
189 00:14:33 --> 00:14:38 that's gonna have a direct impact on the dollar. So it's kinda like a wait and
190 00:14:38 --> 00:14:40 see, but these are the things I'm watching, and hopefully through
191 00:14:40 --> 00:14:41 insightful to you.