Skip to Content
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2025-09-27 14:16
Show last authors
1 (% class="hover min" %)
2 |1 |00:00:00 ~-~-> 00:00:05 |ICT: Hey folks, welcome back. So this is September 19. This is Friday. Happy
3 |2 |00:00:05 ~-~-> 00:00:12 |Friday. And before I get into it, I just want to let you know that I may not, I
4 |3 |00:00:12 ~-~-> 00:00:18 |may not be able to post a lecture on Saturday night. I'm going to do my very
5 |4 |00:00:18 ~-~-> 00:00:23 |best. But if I don't, you'll have two of them on Monday, so you'll have one on
6 |5 |00:00:23 ~-~-> 00:00:28 |Monday morning and then Monday evening. So that's the consolation prize. If I
7 |6 |00:00:28 ~-~-> 00:00:34 |can't pull it off tomorrow night because of family matters, then I'll do my very
8 |7 |00:00:34 ~-~-> 00:00:38 |best, obviously, on Monday to give you two lectures there. All right, so let's
9 |8 |00:00:38 ~-~-> 00:00:42 |get into here. This lecture is going to be trading all time highs and when to
10 |9 |00:00:42 ~-~-> 00:00:47 |disregard TGIF. Thank God it's Friday. It's usually when we have a bullish
11 |10 |00:00:47 ~-~-> 00:00:54 |week. You look for 20 to 30% as much as 40% retracement on the weekly range, and
12 |11 |00:00:54 ~-~-> 00:01:02 |or when you're bearish, you expect to see the retracement of 20 to 30% in the
13 |12 |00:01:02 ~-~-> 00:01:10 |weekly range, or up to 40% either or obviously, when we're at all time highs,
14 |13 |00:01:10 ~-~-> 00:01:15 |we want to disregard the TGIF, because it can keep going and keep going and
15 |14 |00:01:15 ~-~-> 00:01:15 |keep going.
16 |15 |00:01:21 ~-~-> 00:01:25 |Right? So we have NASDAQ daily chart on the left hand side, and obviously it
17 |16 |00:01:25 ~-~-> 00:01:30 |just keeps powering higher. As I indicated this week it would. The right
18 |17 |00:01:30 ~-~-> 00:01:34 |hand side is a one minute chart of NASDAQ again. This is the December
19 |18 |00:01:34 ~-~-> 00:01:43 |contract for 2025 NASDAQ E Mini, not the micro, it's the Mini. So all right. So
20 |19 |00:01:43 ~-~-> 00:01:47 |the first thing we want to take a look at here is that small little volume
21 |20 |00:01:47 ~-~-> 00:01:52 |imbalance there. So where we opened up today, while trading was going on, it
22 |21 |00:01:52 ~-~-> 00:01:57 |was already up in here. It still had a volume imbalance there. And this drop
23 |22 |00:01:57 ~-~-> 00:02:02 |down was overnight in the London session. And we came up into here, and
24 |23 |00:02:02 ~-~-> 00:02:08 |then we came back down in and rallied back up into the moderate portion of the
25 |24 |00:02:08 ~-~-> 00:02:12 |day. And we'll look at that price action now. All right, so we have a premium
26 |25 |00:02:12 ~-~-> 00:02:18 |wick here, again, grading those wicks, so we have the close of this candlestick
27 |26 |00:02:18 ~-~-> 00:02:23 |here, the lower quadrant, consequent encroachment halfway point, upper
28 |27 |00:02:23 ~-~-> 00:02:29 |quadrant and the high. Okay, so this is Thursday's premium wick graded. So we
29 |28 |00:02:29 ~-~-> 00:02:33 |are our quadrant levels on it, and then they appear over here on the left hand
30 |29 |00:02:33 ~-~-> 00:02:39 |side. So if you look at the intraday one minute chart, you can see how price ran
31 |30 |00:02:39 ~-~-> 00:02:44 |right up into that swept it by a little bit. That's classic. And then we have a
32 |31 |00:02:44 ~-~-> 00:02:49 |market breakdown. And we'll look at this wick here, and we'll talk about market
33 |32 |00:02:49 ~-~-> 00:02:56 |structure shifts and the valid ones and what's not but I mentioned on Twitter
34 |33 |00:02:56 ~-~-> 00:03:03 |this morning that 24,007 35 I thought was suspect, okay, and the reason why
35 |34 |00:03:03 ~-~-> 00:03:13 |is, obviously it's pre session, sell side liquidity. This gap in here is
36 |35 |00:03:13 ~-~-> 00:03:19 |first presented fair value gap. And we rally up and we draw right back down
37 |36 |00:03:19 ~-~-> 00:03:24 |into it again. So it created it here. Failure to Launch didn't take out that
38 |37 |00:03:24 ~-~-> 00:03:28 |high trades back down in the bodies. Stay inside of the first position. If
39 |38 |00:03:28 ~-~-> 00:03:37 |everybody got rallies, hits the high over here. So it hits it here, then
40 |39 |00:03:38 ~-~-> 00:03:42 |breaks lower. This is not a market structure shift, because it's a wick
41 |40 |00:03:43 ~-~-> 00:03:46 |inside of a buy side and balanced cell sign efficiency. So there's two PD
42 |41 |00:03:46 ~-~-> 00:03:50 |arrays that are going to conflict. We don't want to look at that as a market
43 |42 |00:03:50 ~-~-> 00:03:55 |structure shift. So it trades back up. Yes, this fair value gap. You could have
44 |43 |00:03:55 ~-~-> 00:04:00 |went short there. I'm not trying to do that. Market breaks lower again here.
45 |44 |00:04:00 ~-~-> 00:04:08 |And notice it's just finding sensitivity rate at that fair value gaps, low point
46 |45 |00:04:08 ~-~-> 00:04:12 |that was not meaningful, didn't close, didn't have a body down there, so it
47 |46 |00:04:12 ~-~-> 00:04:16 |just touched it rally back once more. Here's another fair value gap in here.
48 |47 |00:04:17 ~-~-> 00:04:20 |You could take that short. There's nothing wrong with that short for you.
49 |48 |00:04:20 ~-~-> 00:04:24 |I'm not taking that short. And then we had the market break lower trade deck
50 |49 |00:04:24 ~-~-> 00:04:28 |down into the first potential fair value gap. Look at the bodies. The wick trades
51 |50 |00:04:28 ~-~-> 00:04:33 |down into it, but it doesn't breach it to the downside, rallies once more into
52 |51 |00:04:34 ~-~-> 00:04:40 |and trades up into that fair value gap there, which we continue through, which
53 |52 |00:04:40 ~-~-> 00:04:47 |makes this, what a reclaimed bearish fair value gap. Now this imbalance in
54 |53 |00:04:47 ~-~-> 00:04:52 |here, we want to see it break through that and around here, consequent
55 |54 |00:04:52 ~-~-> 00:04:56 |encroachments, trading there, and if you look real small fair value gap in that
56 |55 |00:04:56 ~-~-> 00:05:00 |little area as well. So these are all things that were pertinent to. This. And
57 |56 |00:05:00 ~-~-> 00:05:06 |if you watch the trade that I uploaded today on YouTube, I didn't remember to
58 |57 |00:05:06 ~-~-> 00:05:12 |put the the trade execution video in last night's upload, but I did since
59 |58 |00:05:12 ~-~-> 00:05:17 |then edit okay, but I have to make a note to make sure I put this one in the
60 |59 |00:05:17 ~-~-> 00:05:21 |comment section so that way you can see it. For those that aren't aware what I'm
61 |60 |00:05:21 ~-~-> 00:05:25 |talking about here. All these things were outlined real time. And market
62 |61 |00:05:25 ~-~-> 00:05:31 |trades lower. It trades down into the first percent of the fair pay gap. And
63 |62 |00:05:31 ~-~-> 00:05:35 |notice it was here, in here, it was sensitive, but now we're back into it
64 |63 |00:05:35 ~-~-> 00:05:38 |again. A third time is not a charm. Okay? It's gonna, it's gonna break
65 |64 |00:05:38 ~-~-> 00:05:43 |through and targeted in that sell side, on that low, and these relative equal
66 |65 |00:05:43 ~-~-> 00:05:48 |lows here. So reaching for pre market session, sell side liquidity and we get
67 |66 |00:05:48 ~-~-> 00:05:55 |there now I showed in the trade example how when you get overzealous by taking
68 |67 |00:05:55 ~-~-> 00:06:00 |your target, which you first end up with here, that's pre market session, sell
69 |68 |00:06:01 ~-~-> 00:06:04 |side liquidity pool. You want to take that when you're in a primary bullish
70 |69 |00:06:04 ~-~-> 00:06:08 |market, you want to take that like a tick or two above or right at it, and
71 |70 |00:06:08 ~-~-> 00:06:11 |worst case scenario, maybe one tick below it, because you can get these very
72 |71 |00:06:11 ~-~-> 00:06:16 |fickle type reverses like this, when it's an underlying bullish market. Now
73 |72 |00:06:16 ~-~-> 00:06:19 |it's a bearish market, and you can extend those targets and try to reach
74 |73 |00:06:19 ~-~-> 00:06:23 |for a little bit more, try get a little bit more cream out of it. Well, I showed
75 |74 |00:06:23 ~-~-> 00:06:27 |case that today, and you saw that it was unwilling to get to my overzealous
76 |75 |00:06:27 ~-~-> 00:06:32 |target, so I had to take off two of them. Here's the example of the
77 |76 |00:06:32 ~-~-> 00:06:39 |executions. Okay, you see 24,007, 98 right up in here. That's at the high end
78 |77 |00:06:39 ~-~-> 00:06:44 |of the reclaim that everybody got. And I added one more right at the upper
79 |78 |00:06:44 ~-~-> 00:06:49 |quadrant levels. Look at that price, 24,007 90.50 fill.
80 |79 |00:06:49 ~-~-> 00:06:53 |24,007 90.50 as you would expect from ICT, and
81 |80 |00:06:54 ~-~-> 00:06:57 |then the market breaks lower and trades right back up into here. Could have
82 |81 |00:06:57 ~-~-> 00:07:02 |added into this and broke lower. Immediate rebounds in here, just
83 |82 |00:07:02 ~-~-> 00:07:06 |delicious on the downside, breaking lower touch, the consequent encroachment
84 |83 |00:07:06 ~-~-> 00:07:11 |here breaks and delivers rate blow, 24,007 35 then it has this kind of
85 |84 |00:07:11 ~-~-> 00:07:14 |gnarly retracement in here, and then ultimately comes back down and does a
86 |85 |00:07:14 ~-~-> 00:07:19 |much more meaningful slide lower, which is, you know, it's part of the game when
87 |86 |00:07:19 ~-~-> 00:07:24 |you're trading short when it's primarily bullish. But if the setups there folks,
88 |87 |00:07:24 ~-~-> 00:07:27 |take it and you have a little bit more experience, and I think I probably have
89 |88 |00:07:27 ~-~-> 00:07:32 |a little bit more experience with ICT concepts than the next guy. So I'm going
90 |89 |00:07:32 ~-~-> 00:07:36 |to take them, I'm going to show you what it looks like when you're doing it. Now,
91 |90 |00:07:36 ~-~-> 00:07:39 |later on in the afternoon, had I been in front of the charts, I would have been
92 |91 |00:07:39 ~-~-> 00:07:43 |all over this bad boy, this little section of price action at volume and
93 |92 |00:07:43 ~-~-> 00:07:47 |balance, because we, in fact, traded back into that. So I'm extending the
94 |93 |00:07:47 ~-~-> 00:07:51 |first potential fair buy cap over here into the afternoon. Here's where, again,
95 |94 |00:07:51 ~-~-> 00:07:55 |where the entry short was, and then my fill, and then finally getting stopped
96 |95 |00:07:55 ~-~-> 00:07:58 |out on last two because I trapped stop loss to halfway point, consequent
97 |96 |00:07:58 ~-~-> 00:08:03 |encouragement of the first principal, that little gnarly retracement here,
98 |97 |00:08:03 ~-~-> 00:08:07 |then it broke lower and intruded right down into that volume and balance on the
99 |98 |00:08:07 ~-~-> 00:08:12 |daily chart. I mean, look how beautiful that is. That's this right here. So we
100 |99 |00:08:12 ~-~-> 00:08:20 |were up in here, up here, and came all the way back down intraday to there,
101 |100 |00:08:20 ~-~-> 00:08:25 |then right back up. That's exactly what I explained on Tuesday's first lecture
102 |101 |00:08:25 ~-~-> 00:08:29 |this week. Go back and listen to that again. This is exactly what I told you
103 |102 |00:08:29 ~-~-> 00:08:35 |it would do. The market rallies up. Look at this crazy rally. Back up. They're
104 |103 |00:08:35 ~-~-> 00:08:38 |not letting anybody get on board with that. This is your only opportunity
105 |104 |00:08:38 ~-~-> 00:08:42 |here. First fitness very back up. At the consequent encroachment the bodies are
106 |105 |00:08:42 ~-~-> 00:08:47 |expecting, I'm sorry, respecting, and then sends it higher, right up in here
107 |106 |00:08:48 ~-~-> 00:08:52 |to take out that high. So scrubbing this over again, seeing everything a little
108 |107 |00:08:52 ~-~-> 00:08:59 |bit better, crunched and compressed, today's initial high, and then the black
109 |108 |00:08:59 ~-~-> 00:09:04 |line is Thursday's daily high. That's this right here. Okay, it runs that
110 |109 |00:09:04 ~-~-> 00:09:11 |liquidity out, and we have that liquidity being taken here, and
111 |110 |00:09:12 ~-~-> 00:09:19 |ultimately it just keeps on powering higher, almost to 24,900 so that was
112 |111 |00:09:19 ~-~-> 00:09:25 |actually a pretty impressive. Rally off that in the afternoon. But again, this
113 |112 |00:09:25 ~-~-> 00:09:30 |is why you do not try to pick tops at all time highs and look for reasons for
114 |113 |00:09:30 ~-~-> 00:09:34 |it. To use that daily chart, as I taught you over here, they're going to come
115 |114 |00:09:34 ~-~-> 00:09:38 |back those imbalances, that volume imbalance, the fair value gap, and
116 |115 |00:09:38 ~-~-> 00:09:42 |inside these wicks, if you don't look at this stuff, it's going to completely go
117 |116 |00:09:42 ~-~-> 00:09:47 |right past you, and you'll never know it as an opportunity. All right, quickly
118 |117 |00:09:47 ~-~-> 00:09:53 |into Forex. Here's the dollar index. And I've mentioned that if this starts to
119 |118 |00:09:53 ~-~-> 00:09:58 |rally up, I want to see this act as an version fair value gap, and I graded
120 |119 |00:09:58 ~-~-> 00:10:02 |that as well. It's. Is a volume imbalance right there. So with these
121 |120 |00:10:02 ~-~-> 00:10:06 |levels here on the daily chart, transposed over to the five minute
122 |121 |00:10:06 ~-~-> 00:10:11 |chart, you can see how we drop down at midnight, right at the upper quadrant
123 |122 |00:10:11 ~-~-> 00:10:15 |level of that inversion, fair value gap rallies comes right back down into a
124 |123 |00:10:15 ~-~-> 00:10:26 |fair value gap and bullish breaker. See that hits their rallies and just keeps
125 |124 |00:10:26 ~-~-> 00:10:29 |powering up into that daily volume imbalance. And then once it gets there,
126 |125 |00:10:29 ~-~-> 00:10:34 |randomly, it just sells off and it moves into consolidation. So this is kind of a
127 |126 |00:10:34 ~-~-> 00:10:38 |little bit of a tricky area to be trading Dollar Index. Not that I
128 |127 |00:10:38 ~-~-> 00:10:42 |recommend trading dollar I've never traded Dollar Index. It's simply a
129 |128 |00:10:42 ~-~-> 00:10:45 |barometer to tell me if currencies should be bullish or bearish, and if
130 |129 |00:10:45 ~-~-> 00:10:52 |it's risk on, risk off for all assets. Okay, switch up a little bit here. So
131 |130 |00:10:52 ~-~-> 00:10:57 |POUND DOLLAR, this is Cable This is actually one of my favorite forex pairs
132 |131 |00:10:57 ~-~-> 00:11:01 |to trade, and I traded this when I was a commodity trader, trading the pound
133 |132 |00:11:01 ~-~-> 00:11:06 |futures, the buy center balance, sell side, efficiency here, I greeted that as
134 |133 |00:11:06 ~-~-> 00:11:11 |well, and the market starts to sell off, as we expected, with the euro to
135 |134 |00:11:11 ~-~-> 00:11:16 |continue lower. The pound did the same thing. So dollar was going higher. It
136 |135 |00:11:16 ~-~-> 00:11:20 |moved above that range I told you I wanted to see, and it would treat that
137 |136 |00:11:21 ~-~-> 00:11:25 |inversion fair value gap as a discounted rate. We've seen that. And then the
138 |137 |00:11:26 ~-~-> 00:11:30 |market breaks lower and trades right back into this fair value gap, this
139 |138 |00:11:30 ~-~-> 00:11:36 |discount wick. This is for your notes. Okay, this is both forex and commodities
140 |139 |00:11:36 ~-~-> 00:11:42 |and futures and whatever else you want to trade. Okay, if we open where we
141 |140 |00:11:42 ~-~-> 00:11:49 |close, listen to what I'm saying on the daily chart. If we open where we closed,
142 |141 |00:11:53 ~-~-> 00:11:57 |and we have a discount wick and we're bearish, you want to grade that's that
143 |142 |00:11:57 ~-~-> 00:12:04 |that discount wick, because you're going to be able to use that in the first 30
144 |143 |00:12:04 ~-~-> 00:12:09 |units to an hour of trading, and it'll be very sensitive to these levels. Here
145 |144 |00:12:09 ~-~-> 00:12:13 |we can see we have true day start, which is midnight, Eastern Time. If you don't
146 |145 |00:12:13 ~-~-> 00:12:22 |know what that is, go and look at my 2016 2017 paid mentorship content that I
147 |146 |00:12:22 ~-~-> 00:12:24 |uploaded right to my YouTube channel. There's Yahoos out there trying to get
148 |147 |00:12:24 ~-~-> 00:12:29 |you to pay for that stuff. It's all for free on my YouTube channel, all you have
149 |148 |00:12:29 ~-~-> 00:12:32 |to do is go into the playlist and you'll see it, have it broken up into every
150 |149 |00:12:32 ~-~-> 00:12:36 |individual month. And incidentally, also people keep emailing me, asking me for
151 |150 |00:12:36 ~-~-> 00:12:42 |the PDF files. The PDF files on the 2016 2017, mentorship, the only thing that
152 |151 |00:12:42 ~-~-> 00:12:47 |was was the slides that you see in the video. So if you want that PDF, just
153 |152 |00:12:47 ~-~-> 00:12:50 |screenshot every slide when I make a change, because that's all that ever
154 |153 |00:12:50 ~-~-> 00:12:54 |was. There was no additional notes. It was just for them to have something to
155 |154 |00:12:54 ~-~-> 00:12:57 |scribble, one and extra notes, because there's lots of places on there where
156 |155 |00:12:57 ~-~-> 00:12:59 |they could add it, kind of like what I'm doing with here. Okay, but the they
157 |156 |00:12:59 ~-~-> 00:13:07 |didn't get this. This is something new for you. Public distribution. All right,
158 |157 |00:13:07 ~-~-> 00:13:11 |so Asian session, buy side liquidity. The market trades up into that sweeps,
159 |158 |00:13:11 ~-~-> 00:13:16 |it breaks lower, and then comes right back up to a fair value gap. This in
160 |159 |00:13:16 ~-~-> 00:13:20 |here break away during London Open kill zone. Now, when I trade Forex, I'm
161 |160 |00:13:20 ~-~-> 00:13:26 |looking at 1am to 5am that's my entire universe of London trading. So I always
162 |161 |00:13:27 ~-~-> 00:13:31 |make allowance for daylight savings time and all kinds of times forward that may
163 |162 |00:13:31 ~-~-> 00:13:35 |come around that. So here's what I look at. If you ever want to know what's the
164 |163 |00:13:35 ~-~-> 00:13:39 |actual times that Michael would have on his chart. It's 1am Eastern Time to 5am
165 |164 |00:13:40 ~-~-> 00:13:44 |anywhere in there. I'm looking for a setup. Okay, so here we get that set up.
166 |165 |00:13:44 ~-~-> 00:13:48 |Here it breaks lower. Look at the body's respect and consequence of that wick
167 |166 |00:13:48 ~-~-> 00:13:55 |over here dives into just short of the fair value gap high here. And then we go
168 |167 |00:13:55 ~-~-> 00:14:00 |into what New York open kill zone, 7am market breaks down a little bit comes
169 |168 |00:14:00 ~-~-> 00:14:04 |right back up to a bearish fair value gap, and then tanks right into lower
170 |169 |00:14:04 ~-~-> 00:14:09 |quadrant of the fair value gap over here on the daily chart for POUND DOLLAR,
171 |170 |00:14:09 ~-~-> 00:14:13 |really, really nice little setups in here. This is just a dandy of a move on
172 |171 |00:14:13 ~-~-> 00:14:18 |the London side and continuation in New York, as you might expect, digging into
173 |172 |00:14:18 ~-~-> 00:14:21 |a discount array derived from the daily chart. Hi,
174 |173 |00:14:30 ~-~-> 00:14:34 |folks, that's it for this week. If you liked what you've seen this week, I
175 |174 |00:14:34 ~-~-> 00:14:38 |promise, Lord willing. If I can come back, because he's in charge of
176 |175 |00:14:38 ~-~-> 00:14:42 |everything, he calls me home, I can't do anything about it, right? But will we
177 |176 |00:14:42 ~-~-> 00:14:46 |continue this obviously next week? And like I said, If I don't get the
178 |177 |00:14:46 ~-~-> 00:14:50 |opportunity to upload a lecture on Saturday evening, you will have two of
179 |178 |00:14:50 ~-~-> 00:14:54 |them, one of them on Monday morning, before noon, and then the standard eight
180 |179 |00:14:54 ~-~-> 00:14:58 |o'clock upload Eastern Time, Monday through Friday. Do enjoy your weekend.
181 |180 |00:14:58 ~-~-> 00:15:03 |Do be safe and. Talk to you next time I wish you good luck and good trading.