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Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2025-09-27 14:15
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2 |1 |00:00:01 ~-~-> 00:00:09 |ICT: All right, folks, so we are looking at a reclaimed fair value gap. I'll show
3 |2 |00:00:09 ~-~-> 00:00:18 |you in a second. Just let me this trade in, and the stop loss will put above
4 |3 |00:00:18 ~-~-> 00:00:28 |this high here, and the take profit, we'll put it right down there. Okay, and
5 |4 |00:00:32 ~-~-> 00:00:36 |the fair value gap, I'll just use the line segment, the horizontal ray to
6 |5 |00:00:36 ~-~-> 00:00:43 |annotate this, and not a rectangle, because I don't like fighting with it.
7 |6 |00:00:55 ~-~-> 00:00:58 |Okay, so reclaimed fair value gap there i
8 |7 |00:01:05 ~-~-> 00:01:17 |right there. So you want to see it now roll over and overlap all of this attack
9 |8 |00:01:17 ~-~-> 00:01:21 |that low after breaching here and then running into that area there.
10 |9 |00:01:29 ~-~-> 00:01:30 |I'll add one more there.
11 |10 |00:01:38 ~-~-> 00:01:44 |Now, once this trades below this quadrant level. Again, in that low I'll
12 |11 |00:01:44 ~-~-> 00:01:48 |move the stop loss to just below, above this swing high, but not before.
13 |12 |00:01:57 ~-~-> 00:02:03 |As I indicated, the 24, 735, as a suspect level, it's, it's simply just
14 |13 |00:02:03 ~-~-> 00:02:09 |because it's when you can look at it, it looks too much of a like a foundation
15 |14 |00:02:09 ~-~-> 00:02:22 |has been established down here with This area here, in this area here. Okay, so
16 |15 |00:02:23 ~-~-> 00:02:25 |lots of sell side below. Here.
17 |16 |00:02:40 ~-~-> 00:02:55 |I didn't quite get below the quadrant level yet, so I'm going to keep this
18 |17 |00:02:55 ~-~-> 00:02:56 |thought where it's at for now I'm
19 |18 |00:03:06 ~-~-> 00:03:11 |now, for those of you that are
20 |19 |00:03:18 ~-~-> 00:03:24 |students on my first Birthday gap, that is
21 |20 |00:03:33 ~-~-> 00:03:47 |there, small, little it's I see. Just want to make sure my eyes are very, very
22 |21 |00:03:47 ~-~-> 00:03:51 |old now, yeah, it's got a small little volume imbalance in here, so that's why
23 |22 |00:03:51 ~-~-> 00:03:58 |I've included that. So here's first presented fair value gap since this
24 |23 |00:03:58 ~-~-> 00:04:04 |morning, because all this is dropped down it was very efficiently back and
25 |24 |00:04:04 ~-~-> 00:04:11 |forth, back and forth, back and forth. And then we have this pop up rate in
26 |25 |00:04:11 ~-~-> 00:04:16 |there. You'll see that the Fairbank up exists. I'm not using this low low here,
27 |26 |00:04:18 ~-~-> 00:04:24 |because the volume balance up here exists. So even if
28 |27 |00:04:33 ~-~-> 00:04:37 |even a small, little, small gap right here, so it's just starting to sell off
29 |28 |00:04:38 ~-~-> 00:04:46 |right in here, I it's reasonable for it to act like it did here in the first
30 |29 |00:04:46 ~-~-> 00:04:50 |present the fair value gap, because we're in an online bull market. So the
31 |30 |00:04:50 ~-~-> 00:04:54 |algorithm does these types of things like it did here. It created a return
32 |31 |00:04:54 ~-~-> 00:04:57 |back into the first presented fair value gap, and then rallied up. And now we're
33 |32 |00:04:57 ~-~-> 00:05:01 |getting this sell the high, sell the. High sell the highs. And there's lots of
34 |33 |00:05:01 ~-~-> 00:05:05 |liquidity in here and here, so they'll overshoot that and take out the 735
35 |34 |00:05:05 ~-~-> 00:05:12 |easily. And I have my order resting at 737 and a half, just because I want to
36 |35 |00:05:12 ~-~-> 00:05:13 |make sure I get it peeled off.
37 |36 |00:05:19 ~-~-> 00:05:25 |All right, as I said, I would drop the stop down just above that swing high
38 |37 |00:05:25 ~-~-> 00:05:29 |once we pierced that lower quadrant.
39 |38 |00:05:39 ~-~-> 00:05:41 |Let me see if I can finesse this.
40 |39 |00:05:47 ~-~-> 00:05:49 |Get that right there. I'll see if I can get it.
41 |40 |00:05:57 ~-~-> 00:06:03 |One more little false hope. Let's have to go higher. My phantom bull flag
42 |41 |00:06:03 ~-~-> 00:06:09 |basically, much like this one was when we rallied up all this bull flagging
43 |42 |00:06:10 ~-~-> 00:06:14 |retailer saw that, and it broke down, broke their heart, traded into the first
44 |43 |00:06:14 ~-~-> 00:06:22 |retentive fair value gap right there, then rallied up to a fair value gap. And
45 |44 |00:06:22 ~-~-> 00:06:25 |then broke down. Now we're just hanging around that quadrant level, so it's a
46 |45 |00:06:25 ~-~-> 00:06:33 |sticking point for right now. I want to see this fair value gap with that volume
47 |46 |00:06:33 ~-~-> 00:06:38 |imbalance, keep price at bay, and then take out that low and aggressively run
48 |47 |00:06:39 ~-~-> 00:06:44 |right here. And how we trade there is going to be indicative of what we do the
49 |48 |00:06:44 ~-~-> 00:06:49 |rest of the day, not trying to pick the top of the market folks.
50 |49 |00:06:55 ~-~-> 00:07:00 |Now, if this were like a Monday or Tuesday, and it had done this, oops, I
51 |50 |00:07:03 ~-~-> 00:07:11 |so if it had dropped down into this area here, that being a good long entry, and
52 |51 |00:07:11 ~-~-> 00:07:16 |then right here adding to it, I would be strongly bullish for, you know, for this
53 |52 |00:07:16 ~-~-> 00:07:19 |scenario. But because we've already moved up a great deal this week and it's
54 |53 |00:07:19 ~-~-> 00:07:24 |Friday, I just think that they're going to cool the Jets going into the weekend.
55 |54 |00:07:25 ~-~-> 00:07:30 |So it's easy to just simply expect it to take out this Very low hanging fruit.
56 |55 |00:07:31 ~-~-> 00:08:00 |Objective, Sell side, liquidity. You and I
57 |56 |00:08:36 ~-~-> 00:08:41 |now we can see what I'm looking at to the internal dialog I'm running through
58 |57 |00:08:41 ~-~-> 00:08:46 |my mind is, how are we laying down candlestick bodies? Are they respecting
59 |58 |00:08:46 ~-~-> 00:08:52 |that fair value gap there, as I would expect it to, or are we piercing it with
60 |59 |00:08:52 ~-~-> 00:08:56 |bodies above it? And we're not seeing that, we're just seeing the little wicks
61 |60 |00:08:56 ~-~-> 00:09:02 |go up there. So we want to see aggression to the downside, so that way
62 |61 |00:09:02 ~-~-> 00:09:10 |the NQ can break the hearts of lungs and then attack the relative equilibrium
63 |62 |00:09:10 ~-~-> 00:09:16 |here, or 735 cell side, As I tweeted earlier, that that level was suspect. So
64 |63 |00:09:26 ~-~-> 00:09:29 |we want to decisively leave that quadrant level. We don't want to beat
65 |64 |00:09:29 ~-~-> 00:09:32 |around it much longer. Start working its way lower. I
66 |65 |00:09:56 ~-~-> 00:10:03 |no marker replay. I. I covered that up there earlier, and I was thinking
67 |66 |00:10:03 ~-~-> 00:10:05 |myself, someone's gonna say this is Market Replay,
68 |67 |00:10:17 ~-~-> 00:10:24 |energetic series of black limousines. This right here is the club to be at
69 |68 |00:10:24 ~-~-> 00:10:30 |right now. This is club 54 again, you'll know anything about that. We want to see
70 |69 |00:10:30 ~-~-> 00:10:34 |it get down there. That's the spot to be. So all the black limousines should
71 |70 |00:10:34 ~-~-> 00:10:38 |go downtown to get to that low right there. That would be constructive.
72 |71 |00:10:39 ~-~-> 00:10:51 |That'd be a Yeah, a good indication that the in crowd is here to the party, and
73 |72 |00:10:53 ~-~-> 00:11:00 |then 735 would be in close proximity for the next hop.
74 |73 |00:11:06 ~-~-> 00:11:13 |Once we take out that low here, stop will go down to break even and plus
75 |74 |00:11:13 ~-~-> 00:11:18 |commission cost and fees, not before i
76 |75 |00:11:26 ~-~-> 00:11:30 |Now, admittedly, now, this is probably a trade that most of you would probably
77 |76 |00:11:30 ~-~-> 00:11:33 |admit, if you're honest, that you probably wouldn't be taking it. You're
78 |77 |00:11:33 ~-~-> 00:11:38 |just probably watching it and seeing you know how it's behaving, and probably
79 |78 |00:11:38 ~-~-> 00:11:46 |right about now you you can see how this on your charts after the fact that it's
80 |79 |00:11:46 ~-~-> 00:11:50 |that was used as a sell off. And the benefit of studying price action live is
81 |80 |00:11:50 ~-~-> 00:11:55 |you start to see these things, and you build scenarios where you're practicing,
82 |81 |00:11:55 ~-~-> 00:11:58 |you're tapering and saying, okay, hypothetically, we'll see if this thing
83 |82 |00:11:58 ~-~-> 00:12:06 |drops 1015, 20 handles before going against you. 1015, handles. And it's not
84 |83 |00:12:06 ~-~-> 00:12:11 |about the R models. You know, what's the R multiple you're just looking at? Can
85 |84 |00:12:11 ~-~-> 00:12:16 |you read price in its next leg and delivery higher or lower? You know,
86 |85 |00:12:16 ~-~-> 00:12:20 |consistently in the beginning, no one's consistent. I wasn't in the beginning
87 |86 |00:12:20 ~-~-> 00:12:31 |either. So it looks like immediate rebalance in here. So we want to see it
88 |87 |00:12:31 ~-~-> 00:12:34 |start to really move lower. Now we're
89 |88 |00:12:44 ~-~-> 00:12:49 |I'm watching the consequent encroachment of this discount wick in here, right
90 |89 |00:12:49 ~-~-> 00:12:55 |here. I don't want to see any kind of dilly dallying around. I want to see it
91 |90 |00:12:55 ~-~-> 00:12:59 |really get down through that and show no respect of it and just slam into that
92 |91 |00:12:59 ~-~-> 00:13:03 |low, go lower and then reach aggressively. For this one, it's
93 |92 |00:13:15 ~-~-> 00:13:17 |almost like I know what I'm talking about. I
94 |93 |00:13:28 ~-~-> 00:13:32 |these black limousines are starting to show up at the club 54 you
95 |94 |00:13:40 ~-~-> 00:13:47 |so we're in consequent correction of the first percent of your value got right
96 |95 |00:13:47 ~-~-> 00:13:53 |now. Case you haven't noticed that, that was what I indicated here with this
97 |96 |00:13:53 ~-~-> 00:13:58 |bison imbalance cell sign on efficiency with the volume imbalance up here
98 |97 |00:13:58 ~-~-> 00:14:07 |towards the high end of it. Watch how it may use the high. Maybe it leaves that
99 |98 |00:14:07 ~-~-> 00:14:10 |gap in here. That's really good. I like to see that where it fails to get up to
100 |99 |00:14:10 ~-~-> 00:14:15 |the high of it and touch this upper quadrant. Well, not upper quad, upper
101 |100 |00:14:15 ~-~-> 00:14:21 |line, the threshold high of that first round there for everybody, gap, leaving
102 |101 |00:14:21 ~-~-> 00:14:25 |that gap there is really good. It's a series that it's not willing to even get
103 |102 |00:14:25 ~-~-> 00:14:28 |back up to a premium array, and it should just wilt heavily.
104 |103 |00:14:40 ~-~-> 00:14:41 |Old bones.
105 |104 |00:14:49 ~-~-> 00:14:53 |There you go. It touched that so you can see it hit the hide the first result you
106 |105 |00:14:53 ~-~-> 00:14:59 |got. So now we want to see it roll over and explore and probe, not only below
107 |106 |00:14:59 ~-~-> 00:15:04 |that low. Low, but below the low threshold of the first present the fair
108 |107 |00:15:04 ~-~-> 00:15:07 |value got. There's liquidity resting there, but the larger poor liquidity is
109 |108 |00:15:07 ~-~-> 00:15:08 |right in
110 |109 |00:15:15 ~-~-> 00:15:22 |here. I appreciate it, if you guys are getting anything off with these examples
111 |110 |00:15:22 ~-~-> 00:15:28 |when I'm doing it, you can give the video a thumbs up. I promise it doesn't
112 |111 |00:15:28 ~-~-> 00:15:33 |make me any more money to do that. It just encourages me to do to do more of
113 |112 |00:15:33 ~-~-> 00:15:38 |it. I mean, obviously I'm going to do what I say I was going to do, but it
114 |113 |00:15:38 ~-~-> 00:15:45 |actually it builds my morale about it, because I know it's not an easy task to
115 |114 |00:15:45 ~-~-> 00:15:49 |learn what I'm teaching, but if it's beneficial to you, and you're and you're
116 |115 |00:15:49 ~-~-> 00:15:55 |learning, and I've just remembered I didn't move the stop down after it went
117 |116 |00:15:57 ~-~-> 00:16:02 |down. Oh no, I made that. I did that incorrect. I'm sorry. I said I was going
118 |117 |00:16:02 ~-~-> 00:16:05 |to take that low out, but since it's it's spending a lot of time inside the
119 |118 |00:16:05 ~-~-> 00:16:09 |consequent encouragement, my subconscious is telling me, you put the
120 |119 |00:16:09 ~-~-> 00:16:12 |stop down, so that way I got to worry about it. So it's just the experience
121 |120 |00:16:12 ~-~-> 00:16:15 |factor kicking in. But originally I wanted to see it trade below that low,
122 |121 |00:16:15 ~-~-> 00:16:20 |but because we're hanging around inside that midpoint of the consequent
123 |122 |00:16:20 ~-~-> 00:16:24 |encouragement level of this first present the prevailing gap. I want to
124 |123 |00:16:24 ~-~-> 00:16:27 |see it really start to move lower, and now, because I don't have anything
125 |124 |00:16:27 ~-~-> 00:16:36 |worrying about if I'm correct or wrong, I've replaced the the feelings of being
126 |125 |00:16:36 ~-~-> 00:16:44 |wrong or not getting it right, or loss or profitability. I replaced that with
127 |126 |00:16:44 ~-~-> 00:16:49 |indifference. Now, so I completely removed the necessity to worry about or
128 |127 |00:16:49 ~-~-> 00:16:54 |even concern myself with the outcome, and more in line with is it still doing
129 |128 |00:16:54 ~-~-> 00:16:58 |the things I would expect it to do if it's going to keep going lower. So I
130 |129 |00:16:58 ~-~-> 00:17:04 |hope it kind of makes sense. So now here's, here's my question to you. First
131 |130 |00:17:04 ~-~-> 00:17:09 |we sent the fair Bay gap. Is this area right here? That little gap, we've
132 |131 |00:17:09 ~-~-> 00:17:15 |already used it here. The bodies respected it and then sent it higher. We
133 |132 |00:17:15 ~-~-> 00:17:19 |went down into it here, and then rallied and failed, and now we're down here into
134 |133 |00:17:19 ~-~-> 00:17:22 |it again. What's the chances of it rallying, creating a higher high today,
135 |134 |00:17:22 ~-~-> 00:17:27 |or stopping me out very, very low. So where's the liquidity at the opposing
136 |135 |00:17:27 ~-~-> 00:17:33 |side is below, down here, where that 735, sell side level? I told you that
137 |136 |00:17:33 ~-~-> 00:17:38 |was suspect on Twitter earlier. And we're seeing the beginnings of that
138 |137 |00:17:38 ~-~-> 00:17:43 |demise for those individuals to have their long positions with cell stops
139 |138 |00:17:43 ~-~-> 00:17:54 |below that. So look what we did here. We sent, we sent the price down below it,
140 |139 |00:17:54 ~-~-> 00:17:58 |but only with the wick. The bodies have stayed here. So we want to see the next
141 |140 |00:17:58 ~-~-> 00:18:06 |candle, or the very next candle after it be strong down closed candle. We want to
142 |141 |00:18:06 ~-~-> 00:18:10 |basically what we're doing is we want to see this wick, this discount wick,
143 |142 |00:18:10 ~-~-> 00:18:18 |completely consumed, not left there. And that's how you know that proper order
144 |143 |00:18:18 ~-~-> 00:18:25 |flow is indicating that you're on side or I'm on side, you don't need DOM. You
145 |144 |00:18:25 ~-~-> 00:18:28 |don't need that to market. You don't need level two data. You don't need to
146 |145 |00:18:28 ~-~-> 00:18:32 |know how many orders are down here or down here or above here. All of that is
147 |146 |00:18:32 ~-~-> 00:18:36 |a red herring. It's a distraction. Like, you really don't need any of that stuff.
148 |147 |00:18:38 ~-~-> 00:18:41 |I mean, it's really nonsense if you think about because you're just looking
149 |148 |00:18:41 ~-~-> 00:18:44 |at what's obvious, there's always going to be buy orders and sell orders above
150 |149 |00:18:44 ~-~-> 00:18:49 |and below the marketplace. It's always that way, and it's continuous delivery
151 |150 |00:18:49 ~-~-> 00:18:56 |of that. So we had this little sell side liquidity pool tapped into here.
152 |151 |00:19:02 ~-~-> 00:19:10 |And Mark it like that. So it's it's in very close proximity, striking distance,
153 |152 |00:19:10 ~-~-> 00:19:17 |to the level I told you, down here, 735 so I just want to see it, just quickly.
154 |153 |00:19:17 ~-~-> 00:19:21 |Just go down here and grab it and be done with it. Because it's Friday and I
155 |154 |00:19:21 ~-~-> 00:19:22 |have things I want to
156 |155 |00:19:29 ~-~-> 00:19:37 |get to your snore. Huh? You snoring? Little girl right about now, x is
157 |156 |00:19:37 ~-~-> 00:19:44 |shaking her head saying, This guy keeps calling it and I'm dog whistling, baby,
158 |157 |00:19:44 ~-~-> 00:19:53 |that's all it is. That's all I gotta do. And it listens. The market is my sheep,
159 |158 |00:19:53 ~-~-> 00:19:55 |and it knows my voice.
160 |159 |00:20:05 ~-~-> 00:20:12 |Here's the 735 says printed. So let's see if I can get that overzealous target
161 |160 |00:20:12 ~-~-> 00:20:19 |I reach for we'll get the consequence on the first minutes of everybody got it
162 |161 |00:20:19 ~-~-> 00:20:24 |comes out. I'm starting out. It's okay. I got real close to my target.
163 |162 |00:20:29 ~-~-> 00:20:34 |I'm going to peel off two just for the general principle.
164 |163 |00:20:39 ~-~-> 00:20:42 |So this low here did, in fact, get pierced.
165 |164 |00:20:59 ~-~-> 00:21:06 |The low came in at 734 even. So that that kind of means 735 was taken out,
166 |165 |00:21:06 ~-~-> 00:21:08 |right? I think we can all agree in that I
167 |166 |00:21:24 ~-~-> 00:21:29 |now, what's the difference between picking a target like that 735, and that
168 |167 |00:21:29 ~-~-> 00:21:35 |low, keeping it there, and having your limit order at that low, maybe one tick
169 |168 |00:21:35 ~-~-> 00:21:40 |below, preferably two ticks before it, when you're shorting a market is
170 |169 |00:21:40 ~-~-> 00:21:44 |primarily bullish, or a market is bearish, a market is underlyingly
171 |170 |00:21:44 ~-~-> 00:21:52 |bearish, having this little bit more overzealous target, excuse me, would be
172 |171 |00:21:52 ~-~-> 00:21:57 |more favorable when it's a bearish market, but when it's a bullish market,
173 |172 |00:21:58 ~-~-> 00:22:02 |you know, fluffing up and trying to squeeze more juice out of the lemon or
174 |173 |00:22:02 ~-~-> 00:22:07 |bleed the rock. Basically, when you're in a bullish market, demanding that your
175 |174 |00:22:08 ~-~-> 00:22:13 |best exits be fulfilled, when you look for lower prices than you really should,
176 |175 |00:22:13 ~-~-> 00:22:17 |when you're in a primary bullish market and you're shorting, it's frowned upon.
177 |176 |00:22:17 ~-~-> 00:22:21 |These are the things I learned over the years, and I'm showcasing it to you.
178 |177 |00:22:23 ~-~-> 00:22:29 |There was nothing wrong with having the limit order just above this, this low
179 |178 |00:22:29 ~-~-> 00:22:37 |over here, and there's a stop out there. So it's not a matter of trying to get as
180 |179 |00:22:37 ~-~-> 00:22:42 |much as you can. It's just a matter of knowing what's possible and being
181 |180 |00:22:42 ~-~-> 00:22:47 |content with that. So that's the example for today. Hopefully you found this one
182 |181 |00:22:47 ~-~-> 00:22:52 |insightful. And if you like this kind of stuff, give the video a thumbs up. It
183 |182 |00:22:52 ~-~-> 00:22:55 |just it really encourages me as a teacher and lets me know that you
184 |183 |00:22:55 ~-~-> 00:22:58 |appreciate what it is I'm doing, because I don't have to do it.