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ICT YT - 2025-09-17 - Trading All Time Market Highs

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2025-09-27 14:15
1 00:00:00 --> 00:00:04 ICT: Hello folks, how are you? Hope you're doing well. So tonight,
2 00:00:05 --> 00:00:14 obviously, is September 16, 2025 and some of you got a little upset with me,
3 00:00:14 --> 00:00:20 didn't you? Last night was a lesson on patience. Now, I've done that in the
4 00:00:20 --> 00:00:25 past, but I promise I won't pull any shenanigans past that. But I wanted to
5 00:00:25 --> 00:00:30 show you how in this industry, it's very important that you try to refrain from
6 00:00:30 --> 00:00:34 building a lot of anticipation and expectation of doing something right
7 00:00:34 --> 00:00:41 away, and by priming you about a specific time, a very specific date in
8 00:00:41 --> 00:00:46 advance, it got you excited, much like when you learned something new from me.
9 00:00:47 --> 00:00:52 Tonight, we'll go over some things, and I don't want you to run right out there
10 00:00:52 --> 00:00:56 tomorrow and try to apply all this and try to risk real money. That's the last
11 00:00:56 --> 00:01:03 thing I want you to do. What I want you to do is build a library of information.
12 00:01:04 --> 00:01:09 Now, I'm going to be making available all the lecture notes each time I do it,
13 00:01:09 --> 00:01:13 and it'll be shared in the telegram channel. And you can find the link in
14 00:01:13 --> 00:01:17 the last page of the presentation tonight. It'll be in the lecture notes.
15 00:01:17 --> 00:01:21 Also the hyperlink you can go to my YouTube channel, click on the
16 00:01:21 --> 00:01:26 description of my YouTube channel and scrub down to where it gives you the
17 00:01:26 --> 00:01:32 link to Twitter and my personal website, and at the bottom, you'll see the
18 00:01:32 --> 00:01:36 official telegram channel link. Okay, there's a lot of fakes out there
19 00:01:36 --> 00:01:41 pretending to be me right now and doing a lot of scams, offering fake investment
20 00:01:42 --> 00:01:47 opportunities, and crypto this, and crypto that, and or automated trading. I
21 00:01:47 --> 00:01:51 don't do any of those things. Okay? I'm not trying to hawk or sell anything to
22 00:01:51 --> 00:01:56 you in the telegram channel, and I'm never going to DM you in telegram. If
23 00:01:56 --> 00:02:03 you DM me, I'm going to ignore you. Okay, so tonight, I'm going to be
24 00:02:03 --> 00:02:11 talking about the principle of trading all time market highs. Now, admittedly,
25 00:02:11 --> 00:02:15 this is something that I had struggled with when I was a younger trader,
26 00:02:15 --> 00:02:20 because I wanted to pick the tops. I figured the richest people in the world
27 00:02:20 --> 00:02:27 traded like that. So I was trying to find that elusive recipe, if you will.
28 00:02:28 --> 00:02:32 And it doesn't exist. Okay? I can promise you that there is no one out
29 00:02:32 --> 00:02:36 there that's going to be able to tell you when a bull market is complete,
30 00:02:36 --> 00:02:42 especially when it's trading at all time highs, it's a guess. Okay, and if there
31 00:02:42 --> 00:02:48 was a science to that, I probably would be the person to know how to do it, but
32 00:02:49 --> 00:02:53 I don't believe it's possible, okay? And the reason why is you don't know how far
33 00:02:53 --> 00:02:58 they're going to go with it, and they keep pressing the boundaries of
34 00:02:58 --> 00:03:04 discovery on what the extreme can be. Each day, it'll make a new higher high.
35 00:03:05 --> 00:03:11 And the worst thing I had to discover was I missed a lot of really good buying
36 00:03:11 --> 00:03:18 opportunities in the past. So learning this skill set tonight isn't going to be
37 00:03:18 --> 00:03:22 a one and done. You learn everything by watching this video, but I'm going to
38 00:03:22 --> 00:03:28 give you a lot of principles that at least helped me and helped a lot of my
39 00:03:28 --> 00:03:32 students over the decades of me teaching. So let's get on with it.
40 00:03:37 --> 00:03:42 All right. Trading all time highs in any market now I have that slightly
41 00:03:42 --> 00:03:47 different in the wording, because I want you to understand that while I'm talking
42 00:03:47 --> 00:03:52 about this tonight, over in NASDAQ chart, I know some of you that are all
43 00:03:52 --> 00:03:57 Forex only, and you're already thinking, I'm never going to talk about forex. I
44 00:03:57 --> 00:04:00 am going to talk about forex. Everything I'm talking about tonight is applicable
45 00:04:00 --> 00:04:07 to forex and futures and any other market. Okay, so when we get into the
46 00:04:07 --> 00:04:11 analysis, which won't start until two weeks from now, okay, so I told you
47 00:04:11 --> 00:04:16 there'd be 10 fundamental and foundational studies and lectures. So
48 00:04:16 --> 00:04:20 there'll be one this Saturday. There won't be any on Saturday and Sunday
49 00:04:20 --> 00:04:25 normally. So this week, this because I gave you a little teaser last night and
50 00:04:25 --> 00:04:30 just to see who would complain so I could block them on my social media
51 00:04:30 --> 00:04:35 accounts. I don't want to see complainers. The idea is that we're
52 00:04:35 --> 00:04:39 going to teach the principles that I want to cover. They're topical studies.
53 00:04:39 --> 00:04:43 Okay? So I'm not teaching a model. I've already taught enough models. I'm
54 00:04:43 --> 00:04:47 teaching topical studies that will help enhance the likelihood that you'll find
55 00:04:47 --> 00:04:51 success with what I already taught. Okay, so it's not that I'm trying to
56 00:04:52 --> 00:04:57 reinvent the wheel or give you something new and shiny. I'm trying to build and
57 00:04:57 --> 00:05:02 beef up your present understanding. Okay, so that's really primarily what
58 00:05:02 --> 00:05:06 we're doing over the next couple months, until we get into the second week of
59 00:05:06 --> 00:05:11 November, and then I'll go on to my traditional holiday break. All right, so
60 00:05:11 --> 00:05:16 trading all time highs in any market. When a market is trading at all time
61 00:05:16 --> 00:05:20 highs, it is more likely that it will continue to post higher all time highs,
62 00:05:21 --> 00:05:27 key reference points in algorithmic price delivery. Look for price to trade
63 00:05:27 --> 00:05:32 under down close candles, closing prices. These are rejection blocks, and
64 00:05:32 --> 00:05:39 they tend to promote new runs higher in price, if possible. Look for all buy
65 00:05:39 --> 00:05:43 side and balance, sell side, inefficiency, fair value gaps. To offer
66 00:05:43 --> 00:05:51 redelivery prior to new legs, higher in price. Grade All premium candle wicks
67 00:05:51 --> 00:05:55 and anticipate the gradient levels to offer discount sensitivity in price.
68 00:05:58 --> 00:06:03 Look through up close candles and refer to the premium candle wicks. They need
69 00:06:03 --> 00:06:08 not be isolated, and I'll cover what that means in a few moments. Look for
70 00:06:08 --> 00:06:14 price to trade under up close candles, closing prices near all time highs
71 00:06:14 --> 00:06:19 markets tend to overshoot previous close redelivery in the form of bear traps,
72 00:06:21 --> 00:06:26 immediate rebalance is typically very strong and is likely to offer discount
73 00:06:26 --> 00:06:34 sensitivity, avoid predicting the reversal high. In other words, simply
74 00:06:34 --> 00:06:38 stay bullish until the market proves to you that it's completely and utterly
75 00:06:38 --> 00:06:43 broke down and reversed. Now that might sound scary. What happens if I get into
76 00:06:43 --> 00:06:48 a trade Michael and I'm long and the market completely collapses and hurts me
77 00:06:48 --> 00:06:54 and I lose money. That's part of this. You can't go through this industry and
78 00:06:54 --> 00:06:58 have a career where you never have anything bad happen to you. That's
79 00:06:58 --> 00:07:04 unfortunate, because everyone comes into this industry like I did, too, and we
80 00:07:04 --> 00:07:07 think that we're going to be the exception. We're not going to find that
81 00:07:08 --> 00:07:12 very painful outcome. And if you're going to be trading markets that are
82 00:07:12 --> 00:07:16 trading at all time highs, you either let the market go without you and trade
83 00:07:16 --> 00:07:20 something else, or you submit to the idea that you want to keep taking buy
84 00:07:20 --> 00:07:27 signals and let money management and good trade management do its job if
85 00:07:28 --> 00:07:36 you're not over leveraging, if not over well, over trading, pushing the
86 00:07:36 --> 00:07:41 boundaries of what you're really capable of weathering as a trader In terms of a
87 00:07:41 --> 00:07:46 loss, as long as you're not doing that, it won't take you out of the game. If
88 00:07:46 --> 00:07:49 you're fearful that it's going to take you out of the game on any one
89 00:07:49 --> 00:07:54 particular trader or one market condition setup, then you're probably
90 00:07:54 --> 00:07:59 over, over leveraging, and you're doing too much where the outcome of one single
91 00:07:59 --> 00:08:04 transaction will completely undermine you. And no trader should ever have
92 00:08:04 --> 00:08:08 their leverage or gearing on their trades that high right. So we're going
93 00:08:09 --> 00:08:14 to take a look at the chart here on the left hand side, and this is a daily
94 00:08:14 --> 00:08:17 chart, so we're not going to look at anything below a daily chart. So
95 00:08:17 --> 00:08:24 everything here is germane to bias. It's germane to narrative, how that's going
96 00:08:24 --> 00:08:29 to blend together and incorporate the idea and the aspects of all time highs.
97 00:08:30 --> 00:08:37 Now this high here is the all time high prior to the run higher that we've seen,
98 00:08:37 --> 00:08:45 trading up to 24,403 and a half. So we're going to be looking at the central
99 00:08:45 --> 00:08:49 tenants I've covered here on the right in a list throughout the price action
100 00:08:50 --> 00:08:55 shown on the daily chart. So first we see that there is a sell side liquidity
101 00:08:55 --> 00:09:01 pool rate here. So that run rate below that low, it's taken the sell side
102 00:09:01 --> 00:09:06 liquidity here, and then now it's going to start to gravitate back to this high
103 00:09:06 --> 00:09:10 here. Now, before it gets there, we have this short term high. So this is going
104 00:09:10 --> 00:09:15 to be the highest probability high it's going to trade to. But keeping with the
105 00:09:15 --> 00:09:20 rules, when we're trading near all time highs, it's likely to continue to make
106 00:09:20 --> 00:09:25 higher highs, higher all time highs. So we would anticipate this high being
107 00:09:25 --> 00:09:30 taken out. Should it trade to it. But working from this low here, we'll start
108 00:09:31 --> 00:09:35 annotating everything. So we have an up close candle here, the closing price of
109 00:09:35 --> 00:09:42 that candle. Notice the next candle we open and we trade down below it. So
110 00:09:42 --> 00:09:49 trading below that previous day's close, if there was a opening range gap, for
111 00:09:49 --> 00:09:55 instance, many times when we're trading at all time highs or near all time
112 00:09:55 --> 00:09:58 highs, trading right back to the previous day's close, it can overshoot
113 00:09:58 --> 00:10:02 it. And the reason why. It does that is because there's a lot of people in this
114 00:10:02 --> 00:10:06 industry that understands the gap that forms from the previous day's close and
115 00:10:06 --> 00:10:11 where we open at 930 in the morning, or whatever the market opening price would
116 00:10:11 --> 00:10:19 be. That gap in efficiency gaps tend to rebalance trade back to them offer both
117 00:10:19 --> 00:10:24 buy side and sell side, delivery in that gap, and then price goes in the
118 00:10:24 --> 00:10:28 direction of the gap. But when we're trading near all time highs, it tends to
119 00:10:28 --> 00:10:32 create these little bear traps where it doesn't just simply go back to the
120 00:10:32 --> 00:10:37 previous day's close, it goes beyond that and trades lower. What do you think
121 00:10:37 --> 00:10:41 the mindset is of the traders that sees that, they're going to think, wow, it's
122 00:10:41 --> 00:10:46 going beyond just simply going back and closing any opening range gap. It's
123 00:10:46 --> 00:10:50 broke down and traded below the opening range gap and went lower. So they're
124 00:10:50 --> 00:10:54 going to think what the market is going to keep going lower. And they're going
125 00:10:54 --> 00:10:58 to think that the market is now topped. And that's what the market makers tend
126 00:10:58 --> 00:11:04 to do in this general market condition. It is just very generic principles that
127 00:11:04 --> 00:11:10 I live by as a trader, and if you incorporate them, you're not going to be
128 00:11:10 --> 00:11:14 completely exempt from having anything bad happen to you. It doesn't mean
129 00:11:14 --> 00:11:17 you're not going to have losing trades or do it wrong. It just means that at
130 00:11:17 --> 00:11:21 least you won't be guessing like everyone else does, because most every
131 00:11:21 --> 00:11:26 other individual out there, they're all going to try to pick the top they're all
132 00:11:26 --> 00:11:31 expecting a crash. They're all trying to get the next big slide in price lower.
133 00:11:32 --> 00:11:36 And what I'm going to do is press on you to think about how they're going to just
134 00:11:36 --> 00:11:42 keep taking it higher. So this is what I mean by overshooting below the previous
135 00:11:42 --> 00:11:47 day's close. Right here, next day we open and we trade down below that close.
136 00:11:48 --> 00:11:53 And traders that are looking for a collapse in price, they may even look at
137 00:11:53 --> 00:11:56 this as relative equal lows that the market may want to trade down there and
138 00:11:56 --> 00:12:02 take that out try to avoid that. Okay? And the next example here is immediate
139 00:12:02 --> 00:12:09 rebalance. This market creates a nice, big up close candle. We open here we
140 00:12:09 --> 00:12:12 trade back down to the previous day's close. So what are we going to do?
141 00:12:13 --> 00:12:17 They're going to overshoot that. And it does. It trades all the way back down to
142 00:12:17 --> 00:12:24 the day before this up close candle to offer an immediate rebalance. So two
143 00:12:24 --> 00:12:27 principles there are happening. We're opening trading back to the previous
144 00:12:27 --> 00:12:31 day's close. But not just closing that gap and then going higher, is closing
145 00:12:31 --> 00:12:36 that gap and going all the way back over top and redelivery back to this candles
146 00:12:36 --> 00:12:41 high. That's immediate rebalance. When that happens, generally you're going to
147 00:12:41 --> 00:12:44 see a very, very strong reaction. There's going to be a lot of discount
148 00:12:44 --> 00:12:48 sensitivity, meaning that the market's going to treat that as a very strong
149 00:12:48 --> 00:12:52 discount PD array, and the market is going to immediately launch higher from
150 00:12:52 --> 00:12:57 there. And you can see that actually happens here. And then the next day we
151 00:12:57 --> 00:13:03 open below the previous day's close, which is another tenant where we open,
152 00:13:03 --> 00:13:06 we trade down below, below the previous day's close. That's a rejection block.
153 00:13:07 --> 00:13:11 That closing price here on a down close candle, and it's going to be rejected,
154 00:13:11 --> 00:13:15 as you can see here, goes right back up, but notice it doesn't take out that that
155 00:13:15 --> 00:13:19 candles high the next day we open, we got a small little gap there. So what's
156 00:13:19 --> 00:13:24 going to happen is going to it's going to probe, okay, it's going to go below,
157 00:13:24 --> 00:13:28 just closing that gap is what everybody's expecting, but it's going to
158 00:13:28 --> 00:13:34 go below that previous day's close and entice traders to do what be short.
159 00:13:36 --> 00:13:41 So we have that rejection, block, discount sensitivity on this candle, and
160 00:13:41 --> 00:13:47 now we have this premium candle wick, and we're grading that so we have the
161 00:13:47 --> 00:13:52 lower quadrant consequent encroachment upper quadrant. And we don't need the
162 00:13:52 --> 00:13:56 high and the low annotated. We're going to look at the chart to see what that
163 00:13:56 --> 00:14:03 is. But notice the sensitivity here at the 75 quadrant, we open breach the
164 00:14:03 --> 00:14:07 previous day's close. So everyone that wants to see just simply the gap closure
165 00:14:07 --> 00:14:11 and then continue higher, they're getting toasted here. It trades down to
166 00:14:11 --> 00:14:15 that lower quadrant, over shoots it a little bit, and then sends it higher,
167 00:14:15 --> 00:14:22 taking out the previous two days high. Then the next day we have a higher open
168 00:14:23 --> 00:14:29 we trade down to the previous day's close. Again, that gap is a trap to set
169 00:14:29 --> 00:14:35 for bears. It drops lower, down to the 50% level of that premium candle wick.
170 00:14:35 --> 00:14:41 Again, we cut through these candles, all these premium candle wicks. Keep them
171 00:14:41 --> 00:14:44 annotated, because the market is going to go back into those levels again when
172 00:14:44 --> 00:14:49 it overshoots the previous day's closing price, it's going to trap traders simply
173 00:14:49 --> 00:14:54 looking for the gap closure and then buying. It's going to go lower. It does
174 00:14:54 --> 00:14:58 this a lot, and I'm not expecting you to just simply use this, because it looks
175 00:14:58 --> 00:15:04 like I'm Cherry Picking go back. Over old market data. Look at stocks. Stocks
176 00:15:04 --> 00:15:11 are really good with this. So if you're a trader that wants to trade, you know,
177 00:15:11 --> 00:15:16 mis C stocks or NASDAQ stocks, this is a principle that repeats a lot with them
178 00:15:16 --> 00:15:21 as well. The gaps tend to be a little bit larger there too. So it gives you a
179 00:15:21 --> 00:15:25 lot of volatility if you're if you're trying to day trade those assets. I
180 00:15:25 --> 00:15:29 don't like the day trade stocks, but I just toss it out there for no extra
181 00:15:29 --> 00:15:36 charge. But we see the premium candle wick gradient, discount sensitivity
182 00:15:36 --> 00:15:44 here, on this candle, we open. We have a volume imbalance. We trade down to this
183 00:15:44 --> 00:15:49 premium candle wick, and it's halfway point is the consequent encroachment.
184 00:15:49 --> 00:15:54 And notice how it trades right down to that. So not only do we open here, we go
185 00:15:54 --> 00:15:57 back to the previous day's closing price. Most traders that are watching
186 00:15:57 --> 00:16:00 this on a day trading basis, they're going to see that think, Okay, well,
187 00:16:00 --> 00:16:03 it's gap closure. Now it's going to rally because it's bullish, and the
188 00:16:03 --> 00:16:07 market just goes even lower, but goes right back to where I teach you to watch
189 00:16:07 --> 00:16:12 these premium candle wicks. The consequent encroachment hits it there
190 00:16:12 --> 00:16:17 beautifully, and then trades higher. And the next day we open, come back to the
191 00:16:17 --> 00:16:21 previous day's close, overshoot it again, to the downside, suckering in
192 00:16:21 --> 00:16:26 people thinking it's it's created a top. It has to have created the top. And they
193 00:16:26 --> 00:16:33 get short, and then market runs right over top of them again, reaching the all
194 00:16:33 --> 00:16:40 time high, as we indicated a little bit ago. So I want you to think about how
195 00:16:41 --> 00:16:49 using these principles, these very generic ideas, that it's not
196 00:16:49 --> 00:16:56 complicated, they keep repeating, and it keeps you on the on your toes about
197 00:16:56 --> 00:17:01 anticipating some measure of manipulation. So this is what generally
198 00:17:01 --> 00:17:05 the retail traders get caught up in, because they're chasing price,
199 00:17:05 --> 00:17:09 anticipating, hoping and praying, basically, that the market is going to
200 00:17:09 --> 00:17:14 break down and collapse. But all the market does is go back to these previous
201 00:17:14 --> 00:17:18 PD arrays algorithmically, and then delivers and spools higher. And it's
202 00:17:18 --> 00:17:22 very frustrating. If you don't know these things, maybe you've been hurt,
203 00:17:22 --> 00:17:26 maybe you've been trying to capture the high in this market or another market.
204 00:17:26 --> 00:17:30 And you can go back and look at your trades, and you can pretty much see that
205 00:17:30 --> 00:17:34 what you failed on is what I'm showing how you can avoid doing that in the
206 00:17:34 --> 00:17:38 future, and not saying you're not going to take losing trades. I'm saying that
207 00:17:38 --> 00:17:42 at least you're going to know now how the markets algorithm reprices back into
208 00:17:42 --> 00:17:46 these very specific PD arrays when they're trading at all time highs or
209 00:17:47 --> 00:17:51 near all time highs, until the market completely collapses and shows you it's
210 00:17:51 --> 00:17:56 reversed. Don't look for shorts. It's better for you to anticipate it like
211 00:17:56 --> 00:17:59 this, because you'll get the lines portion of the move. You'll be on side,
212 00:17:59 --> 00:18:03 you'll be within the narrative. You'll be with the bias correctly, higher Time
213 00:18:03 --> 00:18:08 Frame, order flow. It's on your in your favor, and you'll be able to weather the
214 00:18:08 --> 00:18:13 daily range ebb and flow, up and down, and get the lines portion of the move.
215 00:18:23 --> 00:18:26 Hope you found this insightful. Thank you for your continued interest. Until
216 00:18:26 --> 00:18:28 next time, I wish you good luck and good trading.