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ICT YT - 2025-05-01 - 2025 Lecture Series - NQ Review 04-30-2025

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2025-05-01 11:21
1 00:00:06 --> 00:00:10 ICT: Hi folks, welcome back. We are looking at the NASDAQ now. I was going
2 00:00:10 --> 00:00:13 to do two videos. I was going to make one earlier this morning, about
3 00:00:13 --> 00:00:19 yesterday, and then wait till this afternoon and do today's video. But
4 00:00:19 --> 00:00:25 like, blend them together so and I'll save you some video. Watch time. I'll
5 00:00:25 --> 00:00:32 try to be as brief as I can possibly be. You know how I am. All right? So first
6 00:00:32 --> 00:00:37 and foremost, let's take a look at yesterday. Here is Tuesday's daily
7 00:00:37 --> 00:00:42 candle. And inside this little area right there that is a volume imbalance,
8 00:00:42 --> 00:00:47 because the the wicks bridge the two bodies together, but there's no body
9 00:00:47 --> 00:00:53 laying in there still has yet to be a body laying inside that little area. So
10 00:00:53 --> 00:01:02 the market opened, traded down into that here, and also this wick, this candle
11 00:01:02 --> 00:01:06 right here. It's wick. I'm measuring that to get the consequent encroachment.
12 00:01:06 --> 00:01:16 That's what that red line is here. Okay, and one piece I forget about, I might
13 00:01:16 --> 00:01:22 talk and forget this. This wick right here, is a draw and a consequent
14 00:01:22 --> 00:01:28 encroachment is this level here. So for like, Non Farm Payroll, Thursday and
15 00:01:28 --> 00:01:34 Friday, I think that that might be a upside draw, and then, if it gets really
16 00:01:34 --> 00:01:40 animated, the high here, and then that small little volume imbalance right
17 00:01:40 --> 00:01:47 there. Okay, so that's kind of like what I'm expecting. I'm not demanding it,
18 00:01:47 --> 00:01:53 obviously, but that's what I think is probably unfolding. But I could be
19 00:01:53 --> 00:01:56 wrong. It's not our barrel, so don't they'll be taking trades based on what
20 00:01:56 --> 00:02:03 this set. Also looking back to this wick here, okay, that consequent encroachment
21 00:02:03 --> 00:02:10 there. That's that there, but now it was a premium draw on liquidity. When we
22 00:02:10 --> 00:02:15 were down here, remember that? And then now, because we went above it, this
23 00:02:15 --> 00:02:27 would actually become a discount. So like, okay, so I'll actually change that
24 00:02:27 --> 00:02:33 color. These are all things I should have done before. Dude, you could have
25 00:02:33 --> 00:02:37 did all this in five minutes. I don't know. I like dragging across the coals
26 00:02:37 --> 00:02:44 the ones that don't want to be here. So yesterday we had again the market open
27 00:02:44 --> 00:02:48 trade down that volume and balance and consequent encroachment of this scandals
28 00:02:48 --> 00:02:55 wick, that's half of the wicks length, and then it traded higher and took out
29 00:02:55 --> 00:03:01 the previous day's high and traded inside of this wick. So if we take that
30 00:03:01 --> 00:03:10 wick and we add now the 25 level and the 75 level, these are all pertinent. Those
31 00:03:10 --> 00:03:17 are all still likely targets, if not the high itself going into nonprofit Friday,
32 00:03:17 --> 00:03:23 okay, the reason why I think that's likely to occur, because it's come down
33 00:03:23 --> 00:03:30 and filled in even this gap in here. So we have a separation between these
34 00:03:30 --> 00:03:35 candles low. This candle is high, and we traded down into that today, and it's
35 00:03:35 --> 00:03:41 came off that pretty aggressively. So yesterday, started the run up, and I
36 00:03:41 --> 00:03:45 think they came down, stopped everybody out. That would be long ahead of
37 00:03:45 --> 00:03:50 Thursday and Friday, knock on payroll, and then we'll see what we get. I could
38 00:03:50 --> 00:03:55 obviously be wrong, but again, these, these are the details as to why I
39 00:03:55 --> 00:03:59 believe what I believe. So we're gonna jump right down into a one minute chart
40 00:03:59 --> 00:04:01 and cut to the chase,
41 00:04:07 --> 00:04:17 and we will look at the I wish there was a way. And those of you that know more
42 00:04:17 --> 00:04:23 about trading view than I do remember an empty for saying, Remember, because I
43 00:04:23 --> 00:04:28 don't do anything with empty for anymore, but remember when the platform
44 00:04:28 --> 00:04:31 would allow you to go back to a very specific date just by a couple
45 00:04:31 --> 00:04:35 keystrokes, boom. Thing earlier, is that possible with trading view? Because I
46 00:04:35 --> 00:04:40 don't know if it is. If it is, send me a message on x and say, Hey, ICT, this is
47 00:04:40 --> 00:04:45 what you're looking for for trading you. And I'll jump to that all right. So
48 00:04:45 --> 00:04:50 here's Tuesday in the afternoon, and I showed you all those trades and stuff.
49 00:04:50 --> 00:04:56 But the Monday review, I.
50 00:05:01 --> 00:05:10 I stated that you can go in and do this fair value Okay, remember, I had the
51 00:05:10 --> 00:05:13 higher one up here. I took that off so that we are tensions right in here.
52 00:05:14 --> 00:05:20 Notice that fair value gap is also inside that daily volume imbalance. The
53 00:05:20 --> 00:05:25 blue shaded box here again, pause the video, rewind it until we are talking
54 00:05:25 --> 00:05:29 about the daily chart, and you'll see what that blue area is here on the daily
55 00:05:29 --> 00:05:36 chart. Well, that fair value gap is inside of that, and I told you to draw
56 00:05:36 --> 00:05:39 that out. And those that did were surprised to see how it came down to hit
57 00:05:39 --> 00:05:44 that but I want you to take a look at what was also seen.
58 00:05:50 --> 00:05:56 We have relative equal highs. This is why I do the PowerPoint slides, because
59 00:05:56 --> 00:05:59 I ain't got to do all this stuff back and forth this high and this high. So
60 00:05:59 --> 00:06:02 they're relatively equal. That means there's lots of eyesight about this high
61 00:06:02 --> 00:06:14 here. They took the cell side out there, and we dropped down into classical
62 00:06:14 --> 00:06:20 encroachment of that blue shaded volume imbalance there just fell short of that
63 00:06:20 --> 00:06:37 there and then the low here. It's the short term low there, net buy side of
64 00:06:37 --> 00:06:38 balance, cell sign, efficiency. So
65 00:06:45 --> 00:06:50 now, when you look at that, look at the bodies here, respecting that fair value
66 00:06:50 --> 00:06:53 gaps. I told you that would become an inversion fair value gap, Monday's night
67 00:06:53 --> 00:06:59 review for Tuesday's trading, we trade down into that here, consequent
68 00:06:59 --> 00:07:03 encouragement of the fair value gap. And again, if you're not clear as to what
69 00:07:03 --> 00:07:07 I'm talking about here again, look at the Monday market review, and you'll see
70 00:07:07 --> 00:07:13 this has been suggested to you to draw it out. I didn't do it in my chart, but
71 00:07:13 --> 00:07:18 I told you you can do this too. And those that did it would have it on their
72 00:07:18 --> 00:07:23 chart Tuesday's trading, and it trades down into it here, hits it rallies back
73 00:07:23 --> 00:07:28 out, and then the body's supporting it here at the high we stab down to it one
74 00:07:28 --> 00:07:32 more time, and then we start to run away, and then it comes right back down
75 00:07:32 --> 00:07:36 into the daily volume and balance high see that then rallies up back into the
76 00:07:36 --> 00:07:40 new week, opening gap and clearing the Buy side multiple times, and then
77 00:07:41 --> 00:07:48 picking up south side here and here, and rise up continuing into the rest of the
78 00:07:48 --> 00:07:54 day in the afternoon trade I showed you that. I'm just gonna put the point on
79 00:07:54 --> 00:08:02 review and all that again. The new week opening gap was used later in the
80 00:08:02 --> 00:08:09 afternoon and evening during the Asian session, and then use this resistance
81 00:08:09 --> 00:08:14 here. Sold off all these things, consequent crochet. Look at that, all
82 00:08:14 --> 00:08:20 these things I mentioned during the Saturday space is it's what you're
83 00:08:20 --> 00:08:24 seeing here in the chart. It's just, it's beautiful to see it deliver as
84 00:08:24 --> 00:08:30 outlined, and it repeats over and over again. And I mentioned the the buy side
85 00:08:30 --> 00:08:35 the other day, that's this level here. And in that new week opening gap, it's,
86 00:08:35 --> 00:08:42 it's been working basically those levels back and forth. And then today, in in
87 00:08:42 --> 00:08:47 Telegram, I told everyone I posted basically this chart here. I said I was
88 00:08:47 --> 00:08:51 watching this inversion fair value gap, where it was used here, and it broke
89 00:08:51 --> 00:08:54 down once we cheated inside a new week opening gap. I'll let you watch the
90 00:08:54 --> 00:08:58 videos in the telegram channel. I'm not going to rehash that, because there's a
91 00:08:58 --> 00:09:01 lot of good information in those very short videos, if you don't remember the
92 00:09:01 --> 00:09:04 telegram channel, and then you won't learn about it's not that big video.
93 00:09:04 --> 00:09:09 It's not earth shattering, but it is something that I think is is pertinent
94 00:09:09 --> 00:09:12 to building consistency and know what you're looking for. And then we trade
95 00:09:12 --> 00:09:17 down into the 25th of April's opening range gap. We pause here, drop down into
96 00:09:17 --> 00:09:24 it. Use it as resistance here. And it finally gives, gives rather another drop
97 00:09:24 --> 00:09:31 lower. And then we have the market reaching down in short term low. And
98 00:09:31 --> 00:09:39 then here's news, and this is my Venom model. Now, if you're new, you don't
99 00:09:39 --> 00:09:45 know what a venom model is I only taught it introductory, introductory Lee. I'm
100 00:09:45 --> 00:09:48 just, I just coined that term. If it's not real, I'm not sure if it is, but if
101 00:09:48 --> 00:09:53 it isn't, you know, I got dibs on it. The way it works is, first you have to
102 00:09:53 --> 00:09:58 know what you're looking for, in this case, higher prices. Why? Because it's
103 00:09:58 --> 00:10:04 been dropped all day long. I. And here is your sell side liquidity. I have a
104 00:10:04 --> 00:10:08 video tutorial on this so you can go back and watch it. There's sell side
105 00:10:08 --> 00:10:15 here, and they drop it down through the low but they do it with a city cells on
106 00:10:15 --> 00:10:19 a balanced buy center efficiency. And they do a few candles down here, and
107 00:10:19 --> 00:10:25 then they send it ripping right back up. And that single candle going back above
108 00:10:25 --> 00:10:34 that low is a busy so we have a strong, one sided candle going down to take the
109 00:10:34 --> 00:10:39 liquidity, a couple candles left underneath that low to absorb all the
110 00:10:39 --> 00:10:45 cell stops for accumulation purposes, and they displace it higher. This is the
111 00:10:45 --> 00:10:50 two fangs that make up that model I call venom, and they're injecting the venom
112 00:10:50 --> 00:10:58 into these. Cell stops, so Fang one, Fang two. Then leads, okay, so there's,
113 00:10:58 --> 00:11:03 I don't want to kill the the joy of watching the venom video that's on my
114 00:11:03 --> 00:11:07 YouTube channel. This is not all there is to venom. There's a lot of other
115 00:11:07 --> 00:11:11 things that I'll have in a book format. Because I know some of you are already
116 00:11:11 --> 00:11:15 rushing to put something together and sell it on Amazon, and it's gonna be
117 00:11:15 --> 00:11:18 wrong if you do, I promise you, and I'll probably go into your comment section
118 00:11:18 --> 00:11:22 and leave a review and tell them don't look at your stuff because it's garbage.
119 00:11:22 --> 00:11:26 So don't let me go to that extreme, because I will. I'd like to do those
120 00:11:26 --> 00:11:32 types of stuff as a guy out there. John fibotti, he tried that show. And, yeah,
121 00:11:33 --> 00:11:40 hello, right. So I'm looking for a entry before this candles high is taken out, I
122 00:11:40 --> 00:11:44 want to be buying. And there's two ways you can do it. You can do as a buy on a
123 00:11:44 --> 00:11:48 stop so buy stop. This candle sticks high. You can buy it that way, or if
124 00:11:48 --> 00:11:54 you're trying to keep a tighter stop loss, you can be buying at this candle
125 00:11:54 --> 00:11:59 sticks open or less. Okay, so it's a power three type of entry model, so
126 00:11:59 --> 00:12:07 opening price comes in at 19,001 74 even so you can put a limit order in. As soon
127 00:12:07 --> 00:12:12 as this candlestick closes and you open a new one, the limit order goes in at
128 00:12:12 --> 00:12:17 this candlesticks opening price at 19,001 74.00 you put the limit order in
129 00:12:17 --> 00:12:25 and in this candlestick here you'll see that I got filled. You. There, and you
130 00:12:25 --> 00:12:30 can see that there. See it Look, look real close right in here, I'll try to
131 00:12:30 --> 00:12:35 zoom the video in there is that little carrot symbol that tells you where the
132 00:12:35 --> 00:12:39 actual fill is. And there's the numerical value. Now the stop loss on
133 00:12:39 --> 00:12:47 that trade is this this busy? And if you look at or I have the FIB, see the lower
134 00:12:47 --> 00:12:52 anchored point and the higher anchor point, those two reference points, and
135 00:12:52 --> 00:12:55 that's what this level is here, consequent encroachment of that stop
136 00:12:55 --> 00:13:02 loss has to be just below that. Why? Because this venom model is a valence
137 00:13:02 --> 00:13:06 price range, and it should not come back down here. If it does, it's not a venom,
138 00:13:06 --> 00:13:10 and it's probably gonna be a wrong trade, okay, I'm not gonna be profitable
139 00:13:10 --> 00:13:14 if it goes down to consequent crochet or less than so I can put a stop loss just
140 00:13:14 --> 00:13:18 below that and feel confident that it's okay. And the market daily dies around
141 00:13:18 --> 00:13:22 in here and then sends it higher. Now I was, I was watching this. I'm, I'm
142 00:13:22 --> 00:13:27 smiling to myself. I knew it's going to go up here and take that out, but I
143 00:13:27 --> 00:13:31 forgot that I was only supposed to be taking trades with 30 in the morning, 20
144 00:13:31 --> 00:13:36 in the afternoon. So I lost sight of everything. I got punch drunk because I
145 00:13:36 --> 00:13:40 was watching a live streamer in their chat window, whatnot. So I just, I just
146 00:13:40 --> 00:13:44 collapsed the trade there and was content with that. There's no there's no
147 00:13:44 --> 00:13:48 real reason for anything except for I didn't follow what I was setting out to
148 00:13:48 --> 00:13:52 do, and I was wanting to showcase to you all here. So this is me not following
149 00:13:53 --> 00:13:56 the outline I set for all of you, but still, nonetheless, it's still fun to
150 00:13:56 --> 00:14:06 see it. And ultimately, it goes above the 90,300 and these highs in here comes
151 00:14:06 --> 00:14:11 back down in re accumulates, and all of this is occurring also around the
152 00:14:11 --> 00:14:17 opening range that low of the 25th note that. So there are several things there.
153 00:14:17 --> 00:14:25 We have a market maker, buy model, okay, and I'm buying at the low risk buy. And
154 00:14:25 --> 00:14:30 you could have done accumulation, re accumulation, and then send it up there
155 00:14:30 --> 00:14:33 like that. That would have been wonderful for a market maker, buy model,
156 00:14:33 --> 00:14:38 and then it continues, actually going higher. And you can see it rips through
157 00:14:38 --> 00:14:44 that old volume imbalance on the daily chart after using the old opening range
158 00:14:44 --> 00:14:49 gap of the 25th and watch what happens here. We trade back down into that
159 00:14:49 --> 00:14:53 opening range gap, but look at the body right there. I love seeing that. It's
160 00:14:53 --> 00:14:57 telling you that. Okay, we stopped here. The next candle should go bullish. It
161 00:14:57 --> 00:15:01 opens slightly below it and then quickly read. Exit takes the buy side. Look at
162 00:15:01 --> 00:15:06 these candles here. See how smooth they are. Where there's smooth price action.
163 00:15:07 --> 00:15:13 It becomes jagged. It rips through here. Next buy side is here. It pumps. It
164 00:15:13 --> 00:15:17 pummels that rather. And we have this consolidation in here. And they pump it
165 00:15:17 --> 00:15:22 right up into new week, opening gap for this week, lots of price action,
166 00:15:22 --> 00:15:28 delivery in here, encroachment. Look at the bodies. That's so beautiful. All
167 00:15:28 --> 00:15:33 these folks out there saying, ICT, you didn't create or invent a gap at the
168 00:15:33 --> 00:15:37 open of a week? No, I didn't. I didn't create that, but I gave you the logic on
169 00:15:37 --> 00:15:41 how you're going to trade it and use it, precision based that was never in any
170 00:15:41 --> 00:15:44 books. You're never going to see that. They'll they'll say, Oh yeah, it's going
171 00:15:44 --> 00:15:48 to fill the gap. Gaps like to be filled. It could it could be used as an entry or
172 00:15:48 --> 00:15:52 a target, wonderful. But once it goes to that gap and closes it up, everybody
173 00:15:52 --> 00:15:58 else forgets it. That's what separates me from the boys. The boys, they're all
174 00:15:58 --> 00:16:02 chasing something new, and my stuff never gets stale, at least not for 60
175 00:16:02 --> 00:16:08 days. Okay, 20 day, look back. 40 day, look back. 60 day, look back. This is
176 00:16:08 --> 00:16:11 only a couple days ago, and it's really, really fresh. So it drops back down,
177 00:16:11 --> 00:16:17 takes out the sell side here, and gravitates right back up to the new weak
178 00:16:17 --> 00:16:24 opening gap low this run here to there, that small little scalp right there,
179 00:16:24 --> 00:16:28 that could be your role model. That could be just what you're looking for,
180 00:16:28 --> 00:16:36 your model. See this wick, okay, usually turn this into a four hour video, so I
181 00:16:36 --> 00:16:39 have to be careful. Do it. ICT do it.
182 00:16:41 --> 00:16:45 You see that right there, consequent encroachment of this wick. It's a
183 00:16:45 --> 00:16:49 discount wick. When price goes above it, if you know it's likely to draw back
184 00:16:49 --> 00:16:54 into the new week open gap. Soon as we break above it, the next candle we open,
185 00:16:54 --> 00:16:57 trade down to it there. Boom, there you go. There's your entry. And this portion
186 00:16:58 --> 00:17:02 should stay open as well a breakaway gap, and it rallies right back up into
187 00:17:02 --> 00:17:05 they take the short term buy side here and back into the new week, opening gap
188 00:17:05 --> 00:17:10 low, and now we're just hammering around. This is kind of like typical
189 00:17:10 --> 00:17:17 trash Wednesday afternoon of Non Farm Payroll Thursday. I've already told you
190 00:17:17 --> 00:17:21 what I think is likely to be a long term daily chart. Not that's not that it's
191 00:17:21 --> 00:17:26 long term, but that's my higher time frame for day trading. Our short term
192 00:17:26 --> 00:17:30 trading is the weekly chart. Swing Trading is the it's the monthly chart.
193 00:17:31 --> 00:17:36 So by having that understanding that we could potentially trade higher on the
194 00:17:36 --> 00:17:41 daily chart, Thursday and Friday going into it, I'm looking for reasons why the
195 00:17:41 --> 00:17:44 market may want to justify running to those levels, as I indicated on the
196 00:17:44 --> 00:17:49 daily chart here. It's just to me, you shouldn't be doing anything with this.
197 00:17:49 --> 00:17:52 And I know we're in the last hour trading. I don't like to trade the last
198 00:17:52 --> 00:17:58 hour trading on Non Farm Payroll, weeks, Wednesday or Thursday, Friday of Non
199 00:17:58 --> 00:18:03 Farm Payroll. Absolutely, absolutely. I love doing that, but just know that on
200 00:18:03 --> 00:18:06 your notes in your journal for Wednesday and Thursdays of non front people,
201 00:18:06 --> 00:18:10 Fridays, final hour trading, it's a big gamble. Sure, you might have a big win
202 00:18:10 --> 00:18:14 and might be thanking yourself that you didn't listen to me when I said it. But
203 00:18:14 --> 00:18:19 I'm speaking to new students, new traders. Trust me, it's better to do
204 00:18:19 --> 00:18:23 this than to go out there trying to gamble, and either it doesn't do
205 00:18:23 --> 00:18:28 anything, or it does something unexpected and hurts you. Okay, this
206 00:18:28 --> 00:18:33 week is one of those weeks where you can very easily get hurt and not fully
207 00:18:33 --> 00:18:39 understand why. So you have to dial back your level of exposure and risk. That
208 00:18:39 --> 00:18:43 means trade frequency falls off precipitously. Your leverage falls off
209 00:18:43 --> 00:18:49 precipitously. And just be content with what you can do on Monday and Tuesday,
210 00:18:49 --> 00:18:55 and maybe london session or Asia Tuesday night into Wednesday. Okay and and limit
211 00:18:55 --> 00:18:59 your trading to that as a new trader, and just watch just paper trade or tape
212 00:18:59 --> 00:19:05 read on Wednesdays, Thursdays, and certainly for her, not appropriate world
213 00:19:05 --> 00:19:08 Friday. So hopefully found this insightful. Hopefully it was helpful to
214 00:19:08 --> 00:19:12 you, and until I'll talk to you next time. Lord willing. Be safe. Bye.