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ICT YT - 2022-09-07 - ICT Mentorship 2022 - Ends Series Vol 4.srt

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2022-09-08 10:02
1 00:00:10,200 --> 00:00:15,480 ICT: Hi, folks, this is the final episode of a four part series titled end.
2 00:00:23,280 --> 00:00:37,770 All right, before I get into this, I want to kind of preface it by saying, in my private mentorship, I provided price action models much like this. And I warned
3 00:00:37,770 --> 00:00:49,710 the students ahead of time that the price action models would be useless to anyone that hasn't really trained, studied and did back testing. And this is
4 00:00:49,710 --> 00:00:59,940 going to be pretty much the same thing here. So my private mentorship, students are probably gonna be smiling because they went through this 12 times. And there
5 00:00:59,940 --> 00:01:12,030 was a few from each user group, and mentorship group that came in, that would bellyache and complain that these things are too vague, these things are not
6 00:01:12,030 --> 00:01:24,210 specific enough. And I'm going to talk a little bit at the end of the video about how that's not true. But just know that those of you that have binge
7 00:01:24,210 --> 00:01:33,990 watched like Netflix, and didn't really do the work of backtesting, studying, looking for examples, logging examples that happen in hindsight, so that way you
8 00:01:33,990 --> 00:01:41,520 train your eyes to see it. Much like if you bought a book, and you see examples of a specific trading pattern with indicators telling you that it's supposed to
9 00:01:41,520 --> 00:01:56,100 go higher or lower. If you have that religion in your trading. This is going to be again, more meaningful to the individuals that have gone through the work.
10 00:01:56,340 --> 00:02:04,890 And again, this, this series was primarily aimed at the individuals that have now learned how to find the 2020 IcedTea mentorship model that I put on my
11 00:02:04,890 --> 00:02:13,860 YouTube channel that they can see it repeating. But now take that information and refine it into a plan of action. And that's what this is more or less
12 00:02:13,920 --> 00:02:28,860 dealing with. This is a process. So the final episode here deals with making ends meet. So we were bridging the plan. With the process of making ends meet,
13 00:02:29,370 --> 00:02:34,350 we're gonna be putting it into action. And you're gonna pursue the goal and overtake it.
14 00:02:39,690 --> 00:02:49,650 Just real quick summary. Here, we're focusing on the cost of groceries as a case study here. And you can replace that with anything as I mentioned, and the
15 00:02:49,650 --> 00:03:00,390 budget was $1,000. So we're aiming for $1,000 pretext. And we're gonna be focusing on primarily for opportunities per month in tray, index trading as a
16 00:03:00,390 --> 00:03:15,120 case study for this example, specifically, E Mini s&p. We're assuming that the clearing is done by a discount broker and the Commission's are $4 per trade. And
17 00:03:15,120 --> 00:03:24,720 we will assume the account is 25,000. US dollars to begin with. And I mentioned, this can be done with a funded account type thing if that's what you want to use
18 00:03:24,750 --> 00:03:31,500 also, but you can form fitted to whatever approach you're going to be doing. It could be your own money, or a prop account.
19 00:03:36,420 --> 00:03:49,440 Alright, the process we're targeting $1,000 a month just to attack a major end or bill for that month for each individual month. And we will trade one E Mini
20 00:03:49,440 --> 00:03:58,650 s&p contract per trade, we're not doing more we're not pyramiding we're not trying to increase as we make more money. All this is is an income approach.
21 00:03:58,710 --> 00:04:11,010 That's it. We will trade with an objective of five and a quarter points, or 21 ticks per trade. After commissions should be $20 per contract. Little bit more
22 00:04:11,010 --> 00:04:22,050 than that we'll trade with a hard stop of four points. This is a static stoploss for all trades, and I'm going to talk about that a lot in this episode. We'll
23 00:04:22,050 --> 00:04:32,220 close the full position and flatten quarter points or 21 ticks per trade or taking no partials one and done we will trade the am or pm session in the index
24 00:04:32,220 --> 00:04:46,230 futures trading regular hours. So New York local time. And the same session is 9:30am to 11:30am in New York local time. And the pm session is 1:30pm to 3:30pm
25 00:04:46,500 --> 00:04:55,980 New York local time. Okay, so you have a four hour window divided in two sessions. That's your operating hours. Really short simple right to the point.
26 00:04:56,490 --> 00:05:06,960 You only need to find one setup and then be done for the day. So if you find that in the same session you're not doing the pm session viceversa. Will stock
27 00:05:07,050 --> 00:05:22,890 setups at previous week and previous day's highs and lows will stock setups at previous session highs and lows. All setups will be in the expected range
28 00:05:22,890 --> 00:05:26,460 expansion on a weekly candle for the present week of trading.
29 00:05:34,200 --> 00:05:44,190 All right, previous week's highs when the weekly candle for the present week of trading or if it's the weekend, we have yet to start trading a new week. We
30 00:05:44,190 --> 00:05:56,610 anticipate the weekly range to expand lower so our next weekly candle that has yet to start forming or is presently forming. We're doing our analysis to
31 00:05:56,610 --> 00:06:10,050 determine whether or not that weekly candle that's being formed at the present time whenever you're trading is it likely to expand lower so we're looking for a
32 00:06:10,050 --> 00:06:20,670 bearish bias going into the week. So we're going to focusing on previous week's highs. And we're gonna be hunting shorting opportunities in the s&p 500 under
33 00:06:20,670 --> 00:06:36,480 those expectations. really waiting for the market to reprice above the previous week's high and move down to a five minute chart for setup formation. We're
34 00:06:36,480 --> 00:06:50,430 using the ICT mentorship 2022 model for entry. The repricing of the s&p 500 above the previous week's high is expected to see a raid on buyside liquidity.
35 00:06:51,360 --> 00:07:00,210 So we're not trying to anticipate a reversal. Where we're going short rate as it runs above the old high, we're not trying to do that here, we're waiting for the
36 00:07:00,210 --> 00:07:11,040 market to tip its hand to us. If there's a displacement lower in price, that means if it breaks lower, we're looking for to show displacement, that means
37 00:07:11,040 --> 00:07:20,100 there's gonna be a short term little swing low on the lower timeframes that it breaks, we're going to be looking at that price swing and viewing it as the
38 00:07:20,100 --> 00:07:30,180 displacement swing. And we'll be hunting in that displacement swing a fair value gap at or just above the equilibrium of that displacement swing. So everything
39 00:07:30,180 --> 00:07:41,250 I'm saying here, if you haven't studied the 2022, ICT mentorship model, then this is gonna go right over your head, it's gonna be frustrating. I promise you
40 00:07:41,250 --> 00:07:48,390 everyone that's done the work. This makes perfect sense. They understand our tracking right along with what I'm saying here, the previous week's high you're
41 00:07:48,390 --> 00:08:01,410 drawing a line horizontally across your chart. And when price drives above that either in the am session or pm session, and then breaks lower back below that
42 00:08:01,440 --> 00:08:10,260 previous week's high and causes a short term market structure shift bearishly because there's a swing low that was taken out on whatever timeframe you're
43 00:08:10,260 --> 00:08:19,230 hunting, whether it be the five minute or lower, looking for a fair value got at equilibrium or higher in the displacement like that displacement lag or price
44 00:08:19,230 --> 00:08:29,340 swing that made the high above the previous week's high but then trades back down below it and through a short term swing low. So that signals a shift in
45 00:08:29,340 --> 00:08:39,930 market structure that is now bearish. Once you see that, you can start dropping down from the five minutes that have 432 or one minute charts to refine and
46 00:08:39,930 --> 00:08:49,590 select. Now this is an important part, you're selecting a fair value get the permits a four point stop loss. And I'll talk a little bit more about that. But
47 00:08:49,620 --> 00:09:03,600 I want to go through all the other potential setups. If no fair value gap allows for a four point stop loss, we do nothing. We do not force higher risk just to
48 00:09:03,600 --> 00:09:17,370 take a trait. Now these are going to be very redundant. The wording is very similar. But I do this that way you can take screenshots of this and put it in
49 00:09:17,370 --> 00:09:32,520 your own notes. And you can scribble around the page where there's blank empty spaces and against for your edification. previous week lows when the weekly
50 00:09:32,520 --> 00:09:39,780 candle for the present week of trading or the one that's about to start does if you're doing the analysis in the weekend, is likely to expand higher. We're
51 00:09:39,780 --> 00:09:49,500 gonna be hunting long opportunities in the s&p 500. We wait for the market to reprice below the previous week's low and move to the five minute chart for
52 00:09:49,500 --> 00:10:00,510 setup formation. We're using the ICT mentorship 2022 model for entry. The repricing of the s&p 500 below the previous week's low is expected to See a raid
53 00:10:00,510 --> 00:10:13,200 on sellside liquidity. If there's a displacement higher in price, we look for a fair value gap in the displacement swing. So everything that was said regarding
54 00:10:13,200 --> 00:10:22,710 previous week's highs were reverse. We're just basically reversing everything here every part of that logic is just simply reversed. We dropped down into the
55 00:10:22,710 --> 00:10:28,380 for three to one minute charts to refine and select a fair value get the permits a four point stop loss.
56 00:10:30,029 --> 00:10:42,179 And again, if no fair value got allows, either on the 5432 or one minute chart requires a larger stop loss no four points. We're not doing anything we let the
57 00:10:42,179 --> 00:10:46,289 trade pass and we're not trying to force a trade just for the sake of taking a trade
58 00:10:53,880 --> 00:11:02,160 previous day's highs. When the weekly candle for the president week of trading or the one that's about to start, if you're doing an analysis on the weekend, is
59 00:11:02,160 --> 00:11:12,960 likely to expand lower, we're gonna be hunting short opportunities in the s&p 500. We wait for the market to reprice above the previous day's high and move to
60 00:11:12,960 --> 00:11:23,910 the five minute chart for setup formation. We are using the ICP mentorship 2022 model for entry. The repricing of s&p 500 above the previous day's high is
61 00:11:23,910 --> 00:11:34,740 expected to see a rate on bias on liquidity. If there's a displacement leg lower in price, we look for a fair value gap in the displacement leg. We dropped down
62 00:11:34,770 --> 00:11:45,150 from the five into the 432 or one minute charts to refine and select a fair value get that permits a four point stop loss. If no fair value gap allows a
63 00:11:45,150 --> 00:11:50,040 four point stop loss we do nothing. We do not force higher risk just to take a trade
64 00:11:57,360 --> 00:12:11,940 previous day's lows when the weekly candle for the present week or the week to come is likely to expand higher. We hunt long opportunities in s&p 500 wait for
65 00:12:11,940 --> 00:12:18,990 the market to reprice below the previous day's low and move to a five minute chart for setup formation. And again, we're focusing on the ICT mentorship 2020
66 00:12:18,990 --> 00:12:30,660 model for entry. The repricing of the s&p 500 below the previous day's low is expected to see a rate on Southside liquidity. If there's a displacement higher
67 00:12:30,660 --> 00:12:43,440 in price, we look for a fair value gap in the displacement swing. We dropped down from the five into the 432 or one minute charts to refine and select the
68 00:12:43,440 --> 00:12:55,500 fair value get the permits a four point stop loss. If no fair value gap allows for a four point stop loss we do nothing. We do not force higher risk just to
69 00:12:55,500 --> 00:12:56,040 take a treat.
70 00:13:05,700 --> 00:13:18,630 previous session highs when the weekly candle for the president week of trading is likely to expand lower we're hunting short opportunities in the s&p 500. We
71 00:13:18,630 --> 00:13:27,180 wait for the market to reprice above the previous session. Hi, now what is the previous session high? Well, that could be the high that's formed between 830 in
72 00:13:27,180 --> 00:13:38,580 the morning and 930 in the morning in New York local time. So a high that was in the five or 15 minute chart between those two times 830 and 930. These are key
73 00:13:38,580 --> 00:13:50,940 times or opening prices. So if you look for the highest high in between those two times, that could be a run for bicep liquidity. And if you see a
74 00:13:51,330 --> 00:14:02,850 displacement lower back below it, you can start hunting for a fair value gap there because again, we're hunting previous session highs. Now that's one area
75 00:14:02,880 --> 00:14:14,550 that's the easiest one I started hunting for a high being raided if I'm bearish between 830 and 930. Now I'll look back further into London session and see if
76 00:14:14,550 --> 00:14:27,600 we are sweeping London's session high the high of the day isn't always in the London session. Sometimes it's right at midnight, or just after midnight and not
77 00:14:27,600 --> 00:14:39,000 between two o'clock in the morning and five o'clock in the morning. As you know as my London Open kill zone time period. And if you're trading the pm session,
78 00:14:40,140 --> 00:14:51,810 previous session high would be the morning session highs. So it might go above the morning session highs just to run liquidity out or it may run above what
79 00:14:51,810 --> 00:15:05,970 session the lunch session the hour lunch. So pm sessions many times can continue after running out buyside liquidity About the lunchtime hour highs. The
80 00:15:05,970 --> 00:15:15,570 repricing of the s&p above the previous session high is expected to see a raid on bias on liquidity. If there's a displacement lower in price, we look for a
81 00:15:15,570 --> 00:15:25,800 fair value gap in a displacement swing. We dropped down from the five to 432 or one minute charts to refine and select the fair value get the permissive four
82 00:15:25,800 --> 00:15:41,130 point stop loss. If no fear of a gap allows for a four point stop loss, we do nothing. We do not force higher risk just to take a trade. previous session lows
83 00:15:41,370 --> 00:15:53,850 were almost zero folks. When the weekly candle for the present week of trading is likely to expand higher we hunt long opportunities in the s&p 500. We wait
84 00:15:53,850 --> 00:16:02,910 for the market to reprice below previous session low and move to the five minute chart for setup formation. Were using the ICT mentorship 2020 model for entry.
85 00:16:04,680 --> 00:16:15,210 The repricing of s&p 500 below the previous session low is expected to see a rate on sell side liquidity. If there's a displacement higher in price, we look
86 00:16:15,210 --> 00:16:26,190 for a fair value gap and a displacement swing. We drop it down from the five minute into the 432 or one minute charts to refine and select a fair value get
87 00:16:26,190 --> 00:16:36,420 the permits a four point stop loss. If no fair value gap allows for a four point stop loss, we do nothing, we do not force higher risk just to take a trade
88 00:16:43,409 --> 00:16:53,909 Alright, keeping liquidity and focus. When we're talking shorts, were essentially looking to engage price after a raid on buyside liquidity. This
89 00:16:53,909 --> 00:17:05,849 further increases the likelihood of being on site if shorts are taken. Now what do I mean by that? I went through a series of conditions and setups and where
90 00:17:05,879 --> 00:17:17,039 formations generally occur and where they form. Many times you've probably seen me do trade entries and shown examples and you're thinking to yourself, how am I
91 00:17:17,039 --> 00:17:26,129 able to see or how is ICT namely me seeing the setups? What is he framing it on because I keep a chart basically naked, there's nothing on it, there's no
92 00:17:26,129 --> 00:17:34,199 indicators. Rarely will I have any kind of annotations on it because I'm working with a one minute chart. And I don't have the luxury of time to dress the chart
93 00:17:34,199 --> 00:17:43,319 up when I see the formation start and I start the recording. So the logic behind why I'm taking the trades is based on the things I'm talking about here. Not all
94 00:17:43,319 --> 00:17:56,849 of them. But predominantly, most of the trades I share online, all of my examples are framed on one method in this list of potential setups. So one of
95 00:17:56,849 --> 00:18:07,619 the best things you can have if you're going short, is the understanding that you have now taken out or engaged at least by side liquidity. So when the market
96 00:18:07,619 --> 00:18:19,619 trades above an old high, those biceps are resting above that old high once they're engaged, that sets the likelihood for a displacement lower if that
97 00:18:19,619 --> 00:18:30,449 displacement lower occurs, and we have a shift in market structure and a fair value get forms the likelihood of you being on site or correct if if you take a
98 00:18:30,449 --> 00:18:42,509 short in that fair value gap is increased, because you have taken by side liquidity out or at least engaged it. Okay, so one of the precursors is that you
99 00:18:42,509 --> 00:18:55,079 want to see an important high taken out, or at least probed in the sense that it goes above it, and it quickly rejects it. That is a trade idea I love to see,
100 00:18:55,409 --> 00:19:04,259 because even if it doesn't give me the entire run on the draw on liquidity. In other words, if I have an objective that calls for a potential run for, say 20
101 00:19:04,259 --> 00:19:16,799 handles, okay. I'm only looking for 5.25 or five and a quarter handles so I don't need that full run. But there's a lot more five point setups than there is
102 00:19:16,799 --> 00:19:27,539 20 point setups in day. And if you're framing them around the ideas I've given you here you have the luxury of finding much more setups than what would
103 00:19:27,539 --> 00:19:38,579 otherwise be seen by the average casual price action trader. When we're talking Long's we are essentially looking to engage price after a raid on sell side
104 00:19:38,579 --> 00:19:46,559 liquidity. This further increases the likelihood of being on side if Long's are taken. So everything I just mentioned in regards to being short or looking for
105 00:19:46,559 --> 00:19:58,259 short, is just being reversed here for the same logic just inverted. When you understand what it is you're looking for, it takes more time to discuss it like
106 00:19:58,259 --> 00:20:06,629 this, then for you to undertake saying that by learning it and practicing it, but the conversation that we're having here, only those individuals have gone
107 00:20:06,629 --> 00:20:14,879 through the work of back testing, and looking for these things in their charts, going back through your examples, and what you've already logged in back tested
108 00:20:15,569 --> 00:20:26,489 journals. This discussion or lecture will be much more meaningful to you, because now you'll go back and see why those setups were much more important
109 00:20:27,209 --> 00:20:36,599 than just, well, you easily found them in hindsight, because Hindsight is 2020. But when you go back and look at them, from this perspective, how they form
110 00:20:36,599 --> 00:20:46,679 where they form, okay. Many times over the years, I've been asked by varying degrees of experienced traders that come into my fold as a student, or just a
111 00:20:46,679 --> 00:20:57,839 casual inquiry. Where do my setups form? Like, how do I know that this is going to keep repeating? Why am I not worried about me teaching it openly and
112 00:20:57,839 --> 00:21:06,059 publicly? Is it going to stop working, it's not going to stop working, folks, this is how the markets booked price, okay? It's all based on liquidity.
113 00:21:07,470 --> 00:21:17,700 There's always going to be liquidity if trading is permitted. So as long as there's markets, liquidity will be a thing, okay. And there's always going to be
114 00:21:17,760 --> 00:21:32,820 a larger entity than all of us collectively. That is smart money. So smart money, that entity of trader, when they engage price, they're using the existing
115 00:21:32,820 --> 00:21:41,640 liquidity. And I know some of you are afraid that because this is growing in popularity, because have released it to the public, Smart Money concepts are not
116 00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:52,020 going to die out, it's not a fad. It's the market truism, it's not going to fall out of favor is not going to be replaced with another flavor of the month,
117 00:21:52,140 --> 00:21:58,920 there's nothing that's going to come behind this, that's going to improve on it. And there's nothing that's going to come along and diminish it, it is the
118 00:21:58,920 --> 00:22:09,900 Essentials is the core tenants, the underpinnings of the marketplace, you can't get any more truer than this. When you watch my examples, you're seeing the
119 00:22:09,900 --> 00:22:20,790 short at the high, and you're seeing me buy it back at the low. And vice versa. When I'm going long, I'm buying the low and I'm selling the high that logic is
120 00:22:20,790 --> 00:22:31,890 going to remain in the marketplace because I'm taking myself into the market. And I'm purposely engaging the losing crowd. I'm buying when they think it's
121 00:22:31,890 --> 00:22:41,280 going lower, I'm selling short when they think it's going higher. That logic will always exist in the marketplace, because there's always a sucker. There's
122 00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:53,490 always someone that's coming in, that doesn't know what they're doing. And that type of liquidity, you only need one transaction to book price. That's it. One,
123 00:22:53,550 --> 00:23:07,710 it doesn't matter if it's one contract Marvin, or 1000. Lot, Larry, the idea of booking price, you only need one transaction at one price. And that's it. So
124 00:23:08,010 --> 00:23:17,640 these fluctuations on the smallest scale can be done with a one contract transaction between one party and another. Or it could be a larger block of
125 00:23:17,640 --> 00:23:28,140 orders, it's coming in, it's broken up over a series of transactions. It doesn't matter that same logic is going to be employed because of liquidity, that
126 00:23:28,140 --> 00:23:39,000 liquidity, the interest of buying and selling in these marketplaces is going to have an impact on how the algorithm books price. It has no bearing at all on the
127 00:23:39,000 --> 00:23:49,980 buying and selling pressure. I'll give you a perfect example. If you've ever traded commodities, okay. commodities have an interesting thing. It's called a
128 00:23:49,980 --> 00:24:05,910 limit move. Now, what's the volume on a limit update? You ever think about like that? Did you ever think about what the volume or total numbers of contracts
129 00:24:05,910 --> 00:24:22,680 traded on a limit down day? Say you're trading crude oil? What's the volume when its limit up or limit down? Think Are you seeing an enormous rush of buying and
130 00:24:23,220 --> 00:24:37,410 selling and all that it's just a one tick transaction, boom, it's up there and it stays there. Now I can tell you that phenomenon of a limit up day or limit
131 00:24:37,410 --> 00:24:50,640 down day when I was a neophyte trading in the grain markets, and wheat went up, limit up and I was in that market stuck which is a good problem to have because
132 00:24:50,640 --> 00:25:05,610 you're stuck in a market move that's profitable, but I was trying to sell. Now think about it. A limit update A and you think I was the only one that wasn't
133 00:25:05,610 --> 00:25:16,740 trying to sell it. There's other people out there trying to sell it. But it wouldn't move, it just stays locked at the opening price. So nobody could buy
134 00:25:16,740 --> 00:25:27,870 anymore because it was as high as it could go. But there was a lot of other people on the sidelines wishing they would have bought, but they missed it. And
135 00:25:27,870 --> 00:25:36,870 there's people in here like me that I wanted to sell to get out of my trade because I was new. That's enough for me, you know, I'm good. Let me let me have
136 00:25:36,870 --> 00:25:50,070 my money now. So why couldn't my transaction of trying to sell what I had met somebody that we willing to buy it at the market to do everything about like
137 00:25:50,070 --> 00:26:01,920 that. It doesn't matter what we want to do. And it doesn't matter what our buying and selling pressure is, these markets are going to be priced in booked
138 00:26:03,540 --> 00:26:07,860 to the smallest degree of fluctuation, and time.
139 00:26:09,690 --> 00:26:24,690 It's controlled all around. If it wasn't controlled, they would be collapsing. With the sheer brute force of market participants. Any crash is always a
140 00:26:24,690 --> 00:26:39,900 controlled demolition. Any meteoric rise is always a controlled explosion. You can argue with me, but it won't change the facts. When you take a step back and
141 00:26:39,900 --> 00:26:52,440 look at everything that I've taught on this YouTube channel. This here, this focal point of liquidity. That is something that can't be argued, if you don't
142 00:26:52,440 --> 00:27:03,060 have the understanding of liquidity, your trading is going to suffer from it. So having an understanding of why markets would go lower after going above
143 00:27:03,540 --> 00:27:14,370 important high, not just any high. The ones I've listed here in this discussion and lecture. Those are the ones I have found that are the easiest to translate
144 00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:25,830 into profitable, consistent students. Now once they see these things easily, they can find them. It's defined easily. And you can write these ideas on the
145 00:27:25,830 --> 00:27:38,190 back of a business card. With these ideal scenarios, and these areas of opportunity that repeat all the time, how many weekly highs exist over a course
146 00:27:38,190 --> 00:28:01,350 of a year 50 songs how many weekly lows occur over the course of a year 50 Song how many daily previous highs around 20 or so a month right? handful each week.
147 00:28:03,930 --> 00:28:18,600 Hello at the daily lows, same thing. These types of things repeat. So when I say every week, every day, and it won't stop. I mean that literally. It's not some
148 00:28:18,600 --> 00:28:31,380 little quirky little trademark slang. It's something that I live by. You have watched me do this this entire year. I've made my things public, I made
149 00:28:31,380 --> 00:28:41,640 executions public. I've shown you the logic where I was expecting the market go to beforehand in great detail. And then I showed you laser precision entries and
150 00:28:41,640 --> 00:28:57,270 exits. They're all framed on the logic that I'm talking about in this boring texts only lecture. But these lectures are powerful to the individuals that have
151 00:28:57,270 --> 00:29:08,850 gone through the work aspect of going through the charts. Looking at back testing, and looking at journal entries that you've captured a segment of price
152 00:29:08,850 --> 00:29:13,530 action that has met the criteria that the 2022 model outlines
153 00:29:18,810 --> 00:29:29,670 after significant long setup has formed and the draw on liquidity has yet to be reached. Any new fair value gap on a one minute chart can be utilized for a long
154 00:29:29,670 --> 00:29:42,330 if the fair value gap on the one minute is at or less than five handles wide. Most fair value gaps will not completely close in on redelivery of price. So
155 00:29:42,360 --> 00:29:51,180 what I mean by that? Let's assume that you're bullish, you're expecting the weekly candle to expand higher and you're in the morning session, the market
156 00:29:51,180 --> 00:30:00,420 takes out sell side liquidity and you miss the ideal entry at the fair value gap. Well, that fair value got me a formed on the three minute chart Over a five
157 00:30:00,420 --> 00:30:11,580 minute chart, then drop down to a one minute chart and see in wait. If the fair value gap forms on a one minute chart that you can watch price dropped back down
158 00:30:11,580 --> 00:30:27,660 into, you can buy it if it's not wider than five handles wide. So if the fair value gap, highest point and lowest point is five handles or less, you can enter
159 00:30:27,660 --> 00:30:38,040 that as a long trade and aim for five and a quarter points in the direction of the draw on liquidity that would otherwise be the underlying reason for you to
160 00:30:38,040 --> 00:30:49,830 be getting in there expecting price to go higher. So what am I saying here? By focusing on fair value gaps that have five points or less on a one minute chart,
161 00:30:49,860 --> 00:31:02,310 as long as the drawn liquidity relative equal highs, relative equal lows, single high single low that drawl to liquidity, if it's been yet to be reached, then a
162 00:31:02,310 --> 00:31:20,610 one minute fair value gap is always always a consideration to me. You've seen the pyramid positions up using that very logic. Oh, yeah, how about that, that's
163 00:31:20,610 --> 00:31:31,530 a nugget for you. After a significant short setup has formed in the draw, and liquidity has yet to be reached. Any new fair value gap on a one minute chart
164 00:31:31,530 --> 00:31:40,500 can be utilized for a short if the fair value gap on the one minute is at or less than five handles. Most fair value gaps will not completely close in on
165 00:31:40,500 --> 00:31:51,240 redelivery of price. Now, that's basically me saying what I just mentioned earlier, just everything I mentioned, just reverse the logic and you'll have the
166 00:31:51,510 --> 00:32:04,020 opposing view. But what happens if you take a losing trade and it stops you out? What happens if that happens? For your trade psychology? Well, it's gonna suck,
167 00:32:04,020 --> 00:32:18,180 it's gonna feel bad. You're not increasing another contract to try to get it back quickly. You're going to wait and see if the trade idea still is viable.
168 00:32:18,690 --> 00:32:26,850 Let's assume for a moment that sell side equity has been taken, you're expecting the weekly range to expand higher. So you're bullish. Okay. So you have a buyer
169 00:32:26,850 --> 00:32:39,960 program going in, your bias is bullish. And then you buy a fair value guy, and it stops you out at four points. You want to immediately use the high of the
170 00:32:39,960 --> 00:32:50,100 fair value guy, wait for price to trade above that, if it comes back down and touches it again, that is your entry. Use a four point stop loss with that if it
171 00:32:50,100 --> 00:32:59,370 takes you out again, stop trading for that week, don't take another trade. Because number one, you're going to need time to decompress to. If you have
172 00:32:59,370 --> 00:33:09,420 another loss, now you had three losing trades in one week, that's not good. So you want to keep everything light, the frequency, the intensity, so you get one
173 00:33:09,420 --> 00:33:17,880 opportunity to redeem yourself. And that's it. So you have one trade per week, when stop for the week, you're trying to get final quarter points, that's two or
174 00:33:17,880 --> 00:33:26,490 50 bucks. Again, this is about making ends meet, not competition, you're not trying to be better than the other guy on social media. You're not trying to
175 00:33:26,490 --> 00:33:35,670 push it higher, you're not trying to make an F TMO impression on their leaderboard, okay, all you're trying to do is do boring little strikes. That's
176 00:33:35,670 --> 00:33:45,480 it, you're trying to hit singles, doubles, not triples, not homeruns, not grand slams, you're going in looking for a simple idea to go in and harvest five and a
177 00:33:45,480 --> 00:33:54,570 quarter points and be done. And let the rest of the week do whatever it wants to do in another account. But one account, you're applying to this mindset. And if
178 00:33:54,570 --> 00:33:58,380 you do this, I promise over time, it becomes easier.
179 00:34:00,300 --> 00:34:11,010 What happens if you find a fair value gap that's more than five handles, let's say it's a say it's seven and a half handles wide. And you want to go short. You
180 00:34:11,010 --> 00:34:24,060 can't use the low of the fair value get to enter and use a four handle stop loss, because it might completely close that in and do What stopped you out. So
181 00:34:24,090 --> 00:34:34,680 in those instances, we have a fair value gap that you want to go short in, use the middle of the gap. That's consequent encroachment. So you aim for that.
182 00:34:35,430 --> 00:34:44,820 That's your entry, then you add four points to that as your stop loss. So if you have a seven and a half point, wide fair value gap, all things being equal,
183 00:34:45,120 --> 00:34:52,620 you're expecting the weekly candle expand lower. We had displacement lower after running via liquidity. That means you have a scenario where you can go short but
184 00:34:52,860 --> 00:35:01,440 you would otherwise have to sit on the sidelines because it's a seven and a half handle wide fair value gap. Normally you would be Don't what based on this
185 00:35:01,740 --> 00:35:14,760 lecture, you're selling short on a limit at the low of the fair value gap, or one tick above it. If you go for handles above that as a stop loss, what happens
186 00:35:14,760 --> 00:35:24,480 if it goes almost or completely closes in entry prices to the highest of fair value got and closes it in, you'll get stopped out. So to keep things in
187 00:35:24,480 --> 00:35:35,880 perspective, and manage the risk, you're gonna use your entry limit order to sell short at the middle of the gap, right in the middle, and then add four
188 00:35:35,880 --> 00:35:44,730 points to that as your stop loss. So the chances of you trading above the high of the fair value gap is light. Okay, it's not likely you can, but if you get
189 00:35:44,730 --> 00:35:51,900 stopped out, what do you do the protocol is okay, go back to the low or the fair value gap, wait for it to trade back below. And if it comes back up and touches
190 00:35:51,900 --> 00:35:59,730 it again, that's your entry and add a four point stop loss to that. And that's it, if you get a stop loss, hit there, you're done. Otherwise, everything's the
191 00:35:59,730 --> 00:36:08,250 same, you're waiting for it to hit your five and a quarter. That means after commissions, you should be pretty much essentially breakeven on the day, maybe a
192 00:36:08,250 --> 00:36:15,360 little bit above that, and then you just stop. And you can take another trade, if there's another high impact or medium impact news event for that week. That's
193 00:36:15,360 --> 00:36:17,670 your roles. I gave you everything now.
194 00:36:25,260 --> 00:36:35,430 Prepare yourself and accept many missed entries. Before your trading week begins, it's crucial to remind yourself that you are not expected to be in every
195 00:36:35,430 --> 00:36:44,790 possible trade idea or price swing, do not let me trick you into thinking that you're going to be out there like an ace going from one thing to the next, like
196 00:36:44,790 --> 00:36:54,780 spider man swinging from high to low, high to low. That's not what this account is designed for. You're giving yourself permission to let most of the moves pass
197 00:36:54,780 --> 00:37:09,720 you by over the trading week. I know that seems well. counterproductive. But this is an income approach. It's not a get rich quick, it's not a get wealthy.
198 00:37:09,990 --> 00:37:19,320 It's not a competition approach. It's a boring, give me my ends when you're trying to build it up with that approach. And eventually this account would be
199 00:37:19,320 --> 00:37:31,320 targeting your entire monthly ends. But right now we're focusing on $1,000 each month. You're being patient, and you're waiting for the proper setup that
200 00:37:31,320 --> 00:37:41,670 affords you a four point stop loss, and a five and a quarter point yield and profit on a single contract of E Mini s&p. That's the focus, folks, you're not
201 00:37:41,700 --> 00:37:54,540 expected to do more than that. That's not an Olympic feat. I've given you the ways to select a trade has a four point stop loss and how to frame it. You might
202 00:37:54,540 --> 00:38:03,210 not get filled if it's a larger than a five point fair value gap from high to low. If it's larger than that, and you try to use the consequent encroachment,
203 00:38:03,210 --> 00:38:14,190 you might not get filled. It might run off without you let it go. Prepare yourself to anticipate setups, yes. But they may not allow or afford you an
204 00:38:14,190 --> 00:38:21,450 entry. There's nothing wrong with that this stuff repeats all the time every single day. Every single day, I'm sitting on Twitter, and I'm showing you
205 00:38:21,450 --> 00:38:31,500 something buttons are getting pushed. So let that be an encouragement to you. That's why I say every week every day, and it won't stop. Just because you're
206 00:38:31,500 --> 00:38:39,750 not in my setup doesn't mean that you are failing, it doesn't mean you're missing out on anything, it just means that you are looking for your choice
207 00:38:39,780 --> 00:38:53,280 setup. If it does not offer it to you, you're not to be upset. You are not to fear missing a setup or price run. You're focusing on a single five and a
208 00:38:53,280 --> 00:39:06,690 quarter point trade for the week to make $250 one time per week. Don't fear missing the week's yield. You may find to the following week. If the previous
209 00:39:06,690 --> 00:39:14,670 week did not allow for a low risk setup in order to say you didn't take anything, couldn't get in couldn't get positions. You closed the week with no
210 00:39:14,670 --> 00:39:23,490 trades. You're permitted to look for a second set up the following week. If it's a medium or high impact news driver and all things being equal, as I mentioned
211 00:39:23,490 --> 00:39:33,840 in this lecture, you can take two trades that week. But once you get the second trait you stop. So I covered a lot of rules, boring rules, no charts. No
212 00:39:34,140 --> 00:39:45,300 scribbling no rectangles, no Fibonacci. But I gave you the brass tacks here, folks. This is what it's like when you understand what you're looking for.
213 00:39:45,870 --> 00:39:54,900 Everything that outlined and discussed in here, the binge watchers, this is going to be a thumbs down candidate video. I understand. But it doesn't change
214 00:39:54,900 --> 00:40:03,690 the fact that you got to go through this the right way and having the understanding Have backtesting understand what you're looking for. And then tape
215 00:40:03,690 --> 00:40:12,150 reading, watching it form live, whether it be live when it is booking price, real time or using something like a market replay this study price as it's
216 00:40:12,180 --> 00:40:26,220 delivering hindsight moves, those ideas of seeing that and then demoing it for six months, then you go into something like this, if you decide on your own,
217 00:40:26,430 --> 00:40:35,070 that you're going to approach the market with iPhones, you make that decision. I don't tell you when to do that. But I believe this is a very sober approach.
218 00:40:36,180 --> 00:40:48,630 It's not expecting you to do superhuman things. It's very reasonable. It's rule based. It's principle oriented. It's not expecting to do a lot of acrobatics
219 00:40:48,660 --> 00:40:57,990 each week. You're looking for one easy little setup, five and a quarter point four point stop loss. I even told you how to frame a setup in discern whether or
220 00:40:57,990 --> 00:41:08,010 not the fair value gap should be used or not. I give you rules in determining Is this a viable setup based on the fair value got all the rules are here, folks.
221 00:41:08,580 --> 00:41:11,850 There's nothing missing. Nothing.
222 00:41:14,220 --> 00:41:24,150 It's a steady Eddy, simple little mule of a model. That means it's going to carry the load if you do things properly. But if you abuse it and try to put
223 00:41:24,150 --> 00:41:35,520 more on its back is gonna get you in trouble and it's gonna leave you stranded. So you don't want that load hanging fruit. Low frequency, this is not high
224 00:41:35,520 --> 00:41:49,710 frequency trading. This is low, low, low frequency Lu. Not as deep as the ticker towards somebody like Oakridge boys. The hell's he talking about? My sorry,
225 00:41:49,710 --> 00:42:02,340 different topic. Hopefully found this one insightful. Hope you enjoyed this series. I think that out of all the lectures I've given I like this one the
226 00:42:02,340 --> 00:42:13,170 most, because it makes things practical. And you might not agree. And I understand, okay, you all basically want to see the high impact high action,
227 00:42:14,310 --> 00:42:24,420 technical things. But if you don't have these types of bullet points and logic behind it, you're gonna get in trouble. You will have discipline you have to
228 00:42:24,420 --> 00:42:33,780 have rules. When should I do something? When should I expect that I set up the form? How do I know it's going to keep repeating? That's all in this lecture.
229 00:42:36,030 --> 00:42:44,790 It's simple as that. But it's going to be impossible for most of you because of discipline. Until next time, be safe.