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ICT YT - 2022-08-03 - ICT Mentorship 2022 Market Review - August 02 2022.srt

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2022-08-06 11:11
1 00:00:08,370 --> 00:00:20,070 ICT: Alright folks, welcome back. Late Night with ICT today, so I was a little delayed in my personal life trying to get things finished, I can get down to
2 00:00:20,070 --> 00:00:32,400 business with these charts with y'all. So this will be the last review for this week. I'm going away for two weeks vacation this weekend. So I have some
3 00:00:32,460 --> 00:00:42,810 preparations to do before I do that plus nonfarm payroll. And if you're not familiar with that is the Non Farm Payroll employment week. We do not like to
4 00:00:42,810 --> 00:00:56,850 trade that week after New York session on Wednesday. And that will be tomorrow. So also this week, it just is a first week of August, as I mentioned last night,
5 00:00:57,150 --> 00:01:08,850 in the lecture and commentary, I'm not really a fan of the month of August, so and then there's a cat in the comment section saying August is just like every
6 00:01:08,850 --> 00:01:18,510 other month? No, it's not. But you're welcome to believe that, yes, there'll be movement up and down. But for high probability, very low resistance, liquidity
7 00:01:18,510 --> 00:01:29,790 run signatures, which is what I like to look for in trading. they're few and far between on the month of August. So what that said, in the s&p, daily chart,
8 00:01:29,820 --> 00:01:38,850 September delivery contract, last night, I gave you the outline suggesting that we would likely draw back down into this area between the open of this candle
9 00:01:38,880 --> 00:01:53,640 and the close of this candle. And we dug back into this old low here. And we'll see what it wants to do. Now. Okay, so I don't have any prognostication to share
10 00:01:53,640 --> 00:02:08,490 with you today. It's just the review. hourly chart, you can see we had our old fear a gap here, I'll share with you last night, which will back down into that
11 00:02:08,520 --> 00:02:22,320 once more, just breaching that low here, then rallied and failed to go above the short term high. So this is again, the reason why I don't like to do trading in
12 00:02:22,320 --> 00:02:35,220 the first week of August. And or expect a whole lot in terms of precision for August, because it says a really sloppy month in terms of price delivery. Again,
13 00:02:35,250 --> 00:02:42,270 there will be volatility, there's always some measure of volatility. But to me, I'm looking for something that's symmetrical, something that's very clean, and
14 00:02:42,270 --> 00:02:55,470 that's delivery. And if it's not symmetrical, what I mean by that is not easily outlined on one sidedness. And the market creates very obvious imbalance,
15 00:02:56,040 --> 00:03:04,620 obvious liquidity pools, those two things, those two factors and price action, those signatures I'm looking for, if they're not obvious, and just obvious and
16 00:03:04,620 --> 00:03:13,200 price action, I'm going to refrain from trading. And that's usually what I do anyway. But in the month of August, it's generally like that a lot. So it is
17 00:03:13,200 --> 00:03:25,830 what it is. So we see we had a failure to get about this short term high, we broke down, order block, less of close candle prior to this move lower here, to
18 00:03:25,830 --> 00:03:34,290 back up into that that's what this red line is here. And recall that 41 07 and a quarter level, okay, that's going to be a factor. Again, when we look at the
19 00:03:34,290 --> 00:03:50,760 morning session. Keep this on your chart that might be pertinent to the rest of the week. 15 minute timeframe on Spoos made the market dropped down into again,
20 00:03:50,760 --> 00:04:01,740 that fair value gap we rallied up and we're going to break all of this down here in a little bit more definitive manner. But there's a small little gap right
21 00:04:01,740 --> 00:04:17,130 here. You can see that there. It rallies up and again fails to go above the high. zoomed in on that 15 minute timeframe. We'll see that hourly bearish order
22 00:04:17,130 --> 00:04:30,330 block, it runs up into it here. breaks down creates a small little gap here read delivers to that fair value get dropped once more, creates an imbalance here so
23 00:04:30,360 --> 00:04:48,060 he delivers to the top of that gap. So to break a little bit lower and back into the old fear of a gap I gave you yesterday on the 15 minute time frame, applying
24 00:04:48,060 --> 00:04:52,590 SMT divergence so the ICT, SMT is adding NASDAQ
25 00:04:54,600 --> 00:05:02,850 to an overlay, which is on trading view if you look up here in the upper left hand corner, you'll see do like a little plus symbol, click on that, and you'll
26 00:05:02,850 --> 00:05:14,670 be able to add whatever symbol you want, and click on new pain and new pain will plot it down here. And then I, somewhere in here, I hover over here with my
27 00:05:15,150 --> 00:05:28,080 mouse, and that will give you like a little gear, click on that and change it to plot the instrument on the low. So what I'm showing you is that comparison to
28 00:05:28,620 --> 00:05:43,410 these lows compared to the lows of NASDAQ. So s&p went lower, NASDAQ failed to make that lower low. So there's a s&p divergence. So we're seeing the completion
29 00:05:43,440 --> 00:05:53,940 of that fear of a gap being completely re delivered. And just outside of a here, while at the same time, NASDAQ was unable to make that lower low that was
30 00:05:53,940 --> 00:06:07,110 comparably seen with s&p. And then we had displacement to the upside, shift in market structure, very vague, get dropped up and do it once more. And rallies
31 00:06:07,110 --> 00:06:17,340 now you don't see it here. But that 41 07 and a quarter level is in here. That's the old imbalance we've been following as a upside objective, but we went above
32 00:06:17,340 --> 00:06:27,210 it. So now that level is gonna be a factor again. So let's take a closer look at that. So here's that 41 07 and a quarter level. Here's that low during the am
33 00:06:27,240 --> 00:06:39,660 session, we rally, short term shift in market structure. Fair a gap, we dropped down in return back to 41 07, and a quarter real support resistance. Rallies
34 00:06:39,660 --> 00:06:49,590 again, into a fair Vega. And also notice that we fail to get above these relative equal highs. Again, that's August signature, it's common to sometimes
35 00:06:49,590 --> 00:07:00,480 fail. It's why don't like to trade this month. It's also characteristic of a Non Farm Payroll week, where we expect it to be a little less stellar in its
36 00:07:00,480 --> 00:07:13,890 delivery, not just the s&p but Forex as well. So we have the midpoint of this last up close candle, that's the mean threshold. And you can see how the bodies
37 00:07:13,890 --> 00:07:23,070 of the candles integrate into that during the pm session. They want to be broke lower. Below the fair I got, we bump up until it once more. And then we start to
38 00:07:23,070 --> 00:07:40,830 sell off. And then the pm session moves, as I mentioned here on a five minute chart, you can see all the price level here. Now before we get up into that 15
39 00:07:40,830 --> 00:07:49,320 minute time frame fear that you got here, we're gonna look at the five minute, four minute three minute to minute, we're not going to drop down to one, but
40 00:07:49,380 --> 00:08:00,600 we'll drop down from five down to two. And I want you to take a look at the price delivery in here in relationship to each subsequent lower timeframe chart.
41 00:08:01,590 --> 00:08:11,610 We have Southside liquidity here, relatively equal lows, we drop them into that rally. In here, there's several candidates that you could use for a shift in
42 00:08:11,610 --> 00:08:22,860 market structure. You have this one here on the five minute chart, if you're not going to use this one on the 15. So you have this one here. On the four minute
43 00:08:22,860 --> 00:08:31,860 chart, again, similar, that short term high here, why am I picking this one or not that one? Well, I like the fact that this one is part of these three down
44 00:08:31,860 --> 00:08:42,990 close candles. And it's the highest of them. And it's a swing high, where we have a higher here lower high to the left and a lower high to the right. So that
45 00:08:42,990 --> 00:08:53,970 swing high here, that will be your shift and market structure right there. It does not need to close above. Very get here drops down in rallies, and then it
46 00:08:53,970 --> 00:09:04,650 goes into that 50 minute timeframe for a gap. If you look real close as a smaller little one right in here, as it runs back into that old 41 07 and a
47 00:09:04,650 --> 00:09:16,470 quarter level. Again, if you're familiar with the last several discussions and lectures and charts I've been sharing, you'll know what that 41 07 and a quarter
48 00:09:16,470 --> 00:09:31,440 level is why it's important to take notes. And three minute chart. We have the theory gap here, measuring the low here to the high Now why am I doing that?
49 00:09:31,650 --> 00:09:42,930 Because we seen a stock on here. So I'm not interested in just this. And all that movement down here. I want to see a real price swing. So we dropped down
50 00:09:43,050 --> 00:09:48,450 here and then we run. There's our imbalance. So what is this
51 00:09:51,840 --> 00:10:01,110 intermediate term price when there's the imbalance, it drops back down in there could be a buy right there. And then we can use Use this one over here for the
52 00:10:01,110 --> 00:10:17,730 15 minute timeframe. This is your model, quote unquote, entry for this morning session and the two minute chart, it has its fair a gap here measuring again
53 00:10:17,790 --> 00:10:28,770 that low to that high equilibrium trade. So here, and the fairway gap is within that vicinity as well. So that would be your by using a two minute chart, you're
54 00:10:28,770 --> 00:10:40,890 refining it further and further. So you can be a buyer here with a stop loss just below that low here or for safe. Conservative stock placement read there
55 00:10:41,940 --> 00:10:56,370 might be a little bit wide for you. But it's still sound logic. Alright, Dollar Index I mentioned last night. And again, me preface it by saying already stated,
56 00:10:56,400 --> 00:11:04,680 I was not trading this week. Okay, I'm not doing anything the rest of the week. I'm not doing any kind of demo trading. I'm not doing any kind of live trading.
57 00:11:05,340 --> 00:11:19,500 But I mentioned how if we break below watch under here is we have this order block as well. But it could bounce and the conditions that would cause that
58 00:11:19,500 --> 00:11:28,020 bounces if we see the Euro do what I said it was going to do there. Okay, so I had limited expectations on the upside for a euro dollar. But should it trade to
59 00:11:28,020 --> 00:11:38,010 that level, and we'll see it in a few minutes, then this would obviously cause the dollar to rally. So we had that little bit of bounce. Okay, and I don't know
60 00:11:38,040 --> 00:11:48,120 if it wants to continuously run up in here and clean up this relatively equal highs. That might be a scenario where we see biocide traded, too. I just don't
61 00:11:48,120 --> 00:11:57,150 know. Okay, so I don't have any shame telling you. And my students that have been with me for a while now know that this particular week of every single
62 00:11:57,150 --> 00:12:11,100 month, I'm very guarded, in my expectation in my analysis, because I'm more apt to be wrong. So if it's likely for me to be incorrect during this time, is it
63 00:12:11,100 --> 00:12:22,170 wise for me to tell you what I think is going to happen when I know that my probabilities are extremely low. They wouldn't be wise to do that, right. But as
64 00:12:22,170 --> 00:12:33,000 a mentor, I'm explained to you where my weaknesses are, because I have no shame in them. Because I empower myself as an analyst by knowing where I'm weak. And I
65 00:12:33,000 --> 00:12:41,280 do not tread in the markets where I'm weak. So if the markets are not predisposed to do things that I'm used to seeing in terms of precision and
66 00:12:41,280 --> 00:12:51,030 symmetrical price delivery, I'm not going to go in here and engage. So I have to give you a gun the head scenario like I did last night. And it sometimes it
67 00:12:51,030 --> 00:13:00,240 sounds like both sides of the marketplace. That's what some of the critics will say. But there's conditions there in the, in the commentary and in the
68 00:13:00,240 --> 00:13:09,450 commentaries that I give, not a one sidedness. That's obvious. Usually when it's not a one sided, it's I'm telling you, I'm not interested in either, I don't
69 00:13:09,450 --> 00:13:18,120 know, but let me just tell you what I think might do. So I kind of like cosign each time. But right now, I don't know what it's gonna do. Okay, but going in my
70 00:13:18,120 --> 00:13:28,350 head, it might want to come up here and rush through these relative equal highs. Does that mean continuously keep going higher? I don't know. Does it mean it
71 00:13:28,350 --> 00:13:38,040 never goes up here at all, it just fails to go there and go lower. I don't know. Okay, so if I knew and I had confidence then I will be trading whatnot. But
72 00:13:38,040 --> 00:13:48,000 because I don't know and markets are just in a period of uncertainty for me. I'm sitting on my hands and going into my long awaited vacation a little bit
73 00:13:48,030 --> 00:14:00,480 earlier. Right and here's the euro dollar. As you know, I was looking for that little movement up into here. And I didn't need it to go back up to the old low
74 00:14:00,480 --> 00:14:14,550 at 1.03403 level. I was only interested in this area right in here and it ran up into it and then gave up the ghost and went lower. So what did I only have a
75 00:14:14,580 --> 00:14:26,040 limited expectation to golf here well this thing has been held lower is is being manipulated heavily by the European Central Bank. cable has been allowed to
76 00:14:26,040 --> 00:14:29,940 rally that means Euro pound should be what?
77 00:14:31,350 --> 00:14:38,130 Weaker are going lower right? If you look at your chart, you'll probably see that that's why I felt that this is all that would be likely to be seen that
78 00:14:38,130 --> 00:14:46,350 small little movement up in here between here in here in that little area that's what I was looking for just the bump by side liquidity. Go back on listen to
79 00:14:46,350 --> 00:14:55,830 last night's video you'll hear me talk about that. But one up here failed and broke lower. Now here. Look at these levels here. And if you're ready, get we're
80 00:14:55,830 --> 00:15:04,260 extending it through all of this because why we're not supply and demand To find the bandwidth, never consider cutting through all this stuff to look for a zoom.
81 00:15:04,770 --> 00:15:15,660 And I don't look at zooms, I'm looking at a very specific level that low in that high, okay is ambiguous know, it the market trades down through those levels, we
82 00:15:15,660 --> 00:15:24,480 can anticipate it acting as what resistance, we'll support and resistance or institutional support resistance since you'd like to take my words and apply all
83 00:15:24,480 --> 00:15:35,490 kinds of silliness to them institutional candles that don't exist. Alright, so we have a break below it here. Now notice there's nothing really up here for
84 00:15:35,490 --> 00:15:44,220 like the fair value gap or the model. Hey, that none of that occurred up here. And we're going to break that down further. But we trade through it here and and
85 00:15:44,220 --> 00:15:55,860 look what happens run back right back up into here. And guess what it goes and goes lower? needed? On the 15 minute time frame, you can see that again, nothing
86 00:15:55,860 --> 00:16:05,700 up here. We don't have the shift in market structure. Is this hanging around? At the old level gave you on the daily chart? It just pumps through it a little bit
87 00:16:05,700 --> 00:16:17,850 like I gave you last night. And then the feasibly goes, any fair value gaps in here traded back into here. Nope. Who wasn't here? Nope. See, nothing was left
88 00:16:17,850 --> 00:16:28,020 open for it. So can you take a trade in those environments? I would humbly submit I am not interested in trading these types of markets because they're not
89 00:16:28,020 --> 00:16:37,530 providing what the signatures I'm teaching you that exists in high probability low resistance the Cody Ron signatures see how it works? Yes, the market has
90 00:16:37,530 --> 00:16:47,010 moved, yes, the market went lower. Yes, the market went to I said it was gonna go here. But none of that equated to a trade for me. And even though it went
91 00:16:47,010 --> 00:16:58,980 lower, it doesn't give me any of the setups that I will be looking for. See that. So the first one that occurred was late in the morning around London
92 00:16:58,980 --> 00:17:12,390 close. So we have the high low shift, the market structure went lower, very yet, trade into here once more here and then trades lower, then we have a gap trades
93 00:17:12,390 --> 00:17:23,220 up until it breaks lower, we have another gap here trades lower, that's too late in the day for me. Another one here, your end trades down below that 1.01658
94 00:17:23,220 --> 00:17:36,030 low. So hopefully this kind of like gives you a visual representation of what it looks like when I'm not interested in the marketplace. Yes, there's all kinds of
95 00:17:36,030 --> 00:17:46,110 little retracements and such, but it's not as clean and symmetrical as I've been teaching you and what to look for in terms of price action. So I know this
96 00:17:46,110 --> 00:17:57,150 probably wasn't one of the better videos, but hopefully it explains why I'm not interested in the marketplace, and why it's not really delivering an exciting,
97 00:17:57,510 --> 00:18:09,660 very one sided delivery and price. Yes, this market has gyrations? Yes, it's moving up and down. But it's not providing a model entry for me. And if that's
98 00:18:09,660 --> 00:18:17,550 the case, then I would consider that gambling in order to participate. So I don't gamble and I'll teach my students to gamble. Hope you found this one
99 00:18:17,550 --> 00:18:26,220 insightful. I'm going to be gone for a while don't freak out. I'm gonna come back. I'll return back to commentaries and instructional lectures for your
100 00:18:26,280 --> 00:18:30,150 edification. Until I'll talk to you next time. Be safe