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ICT YT - 2022-08-02 - ICT Mentorship 2022 Market Review - August 01 2022.srt

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2022-08-06 11:11
1 00:00:11,130 --> 00:00:25,050 ICT: Hi, folks, welcome back. This is our Monday, August 1 2022. Market review. And I'm going to cover some brief commentary, obviously not in very great
2 00:00:25,050 --> 00:00:35,040 detail, obviously. But while I teach you a little bit about how I use the tools that I teach my students here on this YouTube channel, and provided the
3 00:00:35,070 --> 00:00:44,010 commentary and analysis that you saw panning out in your charts last week, so it's a little bit of a advanced study, but I think you'll find it interesting.
4 00:00:45,540 --> 00:00:53,460 Before we get into that dollar index, we're only gonna be working with daily charts. So obviously, we saw it dropped down into the area we were looking for
5 00:00:53,760 --> 00:01:07,680 last week. One of the levels I have an interest in is, if we get below here, we might retrace in here. So I'm aware that that may happen. So just take this with
6 00:01:07,680 --> 00:01:17,610 a grain of salt, but I'm siding with it likely to go a little bit lower, if it does go below here, focusing on this little area right there. Okay, and if it
7 00:01:17,610 --> 00:01:31,560 gets there, that might be just a speed bump, just to clear some of this sell side. Your dollar, I think this one still wants to go higher, I'm favoring the
8 00:01:31,800 --> 00:01:40,590 run up into this area here. So they have sellside imbalance. This is an old blow, it might want to gravitate back to that. But I'm just more than interested
9 00:01:40,590 --> 00:01:54,060 just again, this area here and run some bicep liquidity out. British Pound we had this one deliver as we were expecting last week. So we traded up into that
10 00:01:55,800 --> 00:02:07,380 we have buyside liquidity here, watch this old imbalance. So we have sell side unbalanced their buy side here. So this was the bottom of that old imbalance
11 00:02:07,380 --> 00:02:17,820 there, that might be noteworthy going forward in the rest of this week. So far, everything looks solid on the upside. So any retracement should be viewed as
12 00:02:17,820 --> 00:02:33,180 another run up into this area here. That's how I would interpret it. E Mini s&p daily chart September contract. We have price run above this short term high
13 00:02:33,180 --> 00:02:46,770 here. So last week, I'll give you an objective of 12,009 73 and three quarters. And if we continue to go higher, my focus is here. Okay, today was a rather soft
14 00:02:47,550 --> 00:02:55,740 day doesn't really have a whole lot of volatility. I was able to participate in the afternoon session. And you can check that out on Twitter, there's no need
15 00:02:55,740 --> 00:03:08,550 for me to put it here. The fair value gap associated with this waterblock. So this candle is high this candles low. There's the fear of a gap. He trades down
16 00:03:08,550 --> 00:03:21,480 into that and into the order block. Okay, trades into that. tears off higher. I mentioned that we had an s&p divergence here at the time of this daily candle in
17 00:03:21,480 --> 00:03:31,620 the reviews last week. I said that would be temporary, I thought it was going to go higher. And we did. So it's it's important to know that just because you see
18 00:03:31,830 --> 00:03:43,020 what I'm teaching conceptually as SMT divergence that being the Emini s&p was making a higher high on this very day versus the NASDAQ failing make a higher
19 00:03:43,020 --> 00:03:54,180 high than that of that candle here. So respectively, if you look at the relationships between the E Mini s&p daily chart and the daily chart shown here,
20 00:03:54,510 --> 00:04:06,060 not looking at this candle yet having formed. I mentioned that there's a short term s&p Divergence but don't look at that as a top or a shorting opportunity as
21 00:04:06,060 --> 00:04:20,460 we will be drawing up into the buy side liquidity here and we got that into last week. Emini s&p, daily chart September delivery. And we're gonna talk a little
22 00:04:20,460 --> 00:04:30,510 bit about this one because this is where I more or less did all the work with futures trading last week. We had the remainder of this imbalance I mentioned
23 00:04:30,510 --> 00:04:46,230 that initially, we got into that now give you this imbalance last week. For a gap we dropped down into that rallied into the low or the fear of a gap. And
24 00:04:46,230 --> 00:04:55,530 then we're out all the way through and completely closed in and reprice back to the high that fair a gap. And on Friday, we went a little bit further through
25 00:04:55,530 --> 00:05:02,280 and then today, we opened came back down into that level and Just a really small range.
26 00:05:04,170 --> 00:05:13,980 Want to talk a little bit about why you probably had some difficulty this morning trading or this entire day trading the index market. In your notes, this
27 00:05:14,040 --> 00:05:27,900 record this. August is typically one of those months that have a lot of uncertainty, because there's a lot of disinterest in equities. Because it's the
28 00:05:27,900 --> 00:05:37,110 last month of the summer, there's a lot of folks that are going away, there isn't a lot of participation in marketplace. So therefore, volume will be a
29 00:05:37,110 --> 00:05:51,600 little bit lower than typically you will see in spring and fall. Noting that it's important that you have in your plan, or your approach or model, to not try
30 00:05:51,600 --> 00:06:00,540 to do a lot of trading in August. As a general rule of thumb, you're gonna see me do very, very little this month. In fact, this week, I'm probably gonna do
31 00:06:00,660 --> 00:06:14,220 next to nothing. We have Non Farm Payroll, Friday, we have summer doldrums, month of August. I'm planning a vacation for two weeks. So I'm really trying to
32 00:06:14,370 --> 00:06:23,460 convey that message to you all try to relax this month, because the fall is coming up, it's probably going to be very volatile. So take that as a means of
33 00:06:23,940 --> 00:06:35,580 being inspired to just pull back in terms of your activity and the fevered pitch Did you usually try to go into looking for setups to try to dial it back? I'm
34 00:06:35,580 --> 00:06:45,390 not saying there won't be movements in these markets. Just I'm not trying to push it hard right now. I'm saving my gunpowder for September, October November.
35 00:06:51,330 --> 00:07:00,630 Alright, so let's take a look at the E Mini s&p hourly chart. Okay, and I'm gonna kind of like break this down for you. Now, before I get into this,
36 00:07:01,020 --> 00:07:11,670 invariably, I'm gonna have people that have not been following along that did not watch last week's videos before they were booked in price real time. Before
37 00:07:11,730 --> 00:07:22,320 you look at the tweets that happened on Twitter, okay, so everything I'm going to say to you here was before it happened, okay, it was not both sides of the
38 00:07:22,320 --> 00:07:32,130 marketplace. And I'm saying this and I know some of you're rolling your eyes, like this is bragging it I'm not bragging, I'm answering the inevitable members
39 00:07:32,130 --> 00:07:39,210 that's going to come to this channel right now for the very first time, like this is the first video they're watching. And it's gonna look like I'm pointing
40 00:07:39,210 --> 00:07:49,860 to something that's already happened. And there was no foresight when you all know that these things were talked about in videos before the actual day and you
41 00:07:49,860 --> 00:08:00,060 can look at the YouTube channel, and you can look at the tweets, okay. But I mentioned how we were likely to draw higher and those daily levels here that
42 00:08:00,060 --> 00:08:12,390 4030 and a half and 41 07 and a quarter, there's levels respectively 401 Let me get back up to the the daily chart so we can get a frame reference. That low and
43 00:08:12,390 --> 00:08:24,780 that high. That's the imbalance seen here. Okay, so we're likely to see the algorithm reprice higher now that it has offered sell side. Now by side its
44 00:08:24,780 --> 00:08:35,460 reprice is not balanced yet. Okay, that is not balanced, we can come back down into here for that range in revisit this close of that candle, I would like
45 00:08:35,460 --> 00:08:45,660 that. And that will be beneficial, really, for it to come down here, maybe a little bit below that, it will shoot and then come higher, to attack the buy
46 00:08:45,660 --> 00:08:54,000 side, I would like that and eventually gravitate to here. That's kind of like what I'm anticipating. But because we have Non Farm Payroll, and it's August and
47 00:08:54,000 --> 00:09:06,690 it's the first week of the month. Again, it's just an idea I'm watching to see if it pans out. I'm not gonna go in here hard lining it and pushing it to make
48 00:09:06,690 --> 00:09:12,450 sure it happens in my own trades. This is something I'm just putting out there before it happens if it happens, great. If it doesn't, I don't really care
49 00:09:12,450 --> 00:09:23,340 because like I said, I'm not trying to participate that much this month. So we have those levels in mind. In this area down here is that fair value got one of
50 00:09:23,340 --> 00:09:34,140 the chart again, once more I'm showing you back and forth so you can see. Here's that fear vague up during this candles high that candles low right here. Okay?
51 00:09:35,310 --> 00:09:48,480 The only hourly chart that we're seeing here. Now, I want you to think about how I teach intraday charts. Very small timeframes below one minute timeframe, one
52 00:09:48,480 --> 00:09:59,880 minute chart, two minute, 345 minute 15 minute chart, 60 minute chart for our chart, and daily. Obviously I've convinced a lot of you and converted a lot of
53 00:09:59,880 --> 00:10:12,270 them. naysayers over the past seven months showing and showcasing a specific model I've taught in the 2022 free to mentorship for the ICT mentorship series.
54 00:10:16,230 --> 00:10:26,010 Taking a step back, and giving you the nuts and bolts as to how I called last week, and how it delivered, I want you to understand some of the components
55 00:10:26,010 --> 00:10:34,680 here, because the algorithm isn't just running on one minute charts and five minute charts and 15 minute charts and hourly charts. It's really utilizing the
56 00:10:34,680 --> 00:10:48,480 daily chart. Okay, that provides majority of the bias, the Buy Sell programs that enters game, what's a buy or sell program. A buy program is where it starts
57 00:10:49,080 --> 00:10:58,200 gyrating and moving towards a specific higher timeframe pdra. And what's a PDA array, it could be an old high, it could be a bearish order block, it could be a
58 00:10:58,200 --> 00:11:05,700 fair value got this above market price, it could be a bearish breaker, anything above current market price that would draw a price to it.
59 00:11:08,550 --> 00:11:16,890 Because we're looking at higher prices, and I outlined this last week, both in Twitter and on the YouTube channel videos, each day I was doing market review, I
60 00:11:16,890 --> 00:11:23,970 was suggesting what I thought was going to happen to give you a taste of what it's like to be mentored real time before it happens. And you can see with
61 00:11:23,970 --> 00:11:34,110 visibility in great deal precision, how these concepts work very well. And they're complemented. When you have the student watching in real time with
62 00:11:34,110 --> 00:11:41,880 something in mind before it happens. Not disappointed, something that still and it's already happened in the chart. So because I have the benefit of hindsight
63 00:11:41,880 --> 00:11:49,830 now, and I've earned the right to be able to talk about it now because I call all this last week, push all that to the side. If you haven't watched everything
64 00:11:49,830 --> 00:11:57,960 from last week, stop watching this video, go watch last week's videos and go through the tweets from last week. And you'll be brought up to speed and and
65 00:11:57,960 --> 00:12:06,720 this will be a much more meaningful lecture to you. But if you look at how we traded down into that fear of a gap on a daily chart, we dropped down into it.
66 00:12:06,930 --> 00:12:18,030 And then we had a lot of animation to the upside. And then another run here, taking by site and reaching into that lower level. Discount, whoa, the fair
67 00:12:18,030 --> 00:12:27,120 value gap. This is the high that fair a gap on the daily chart. This is the low the fair of a gap both of those levels here. Okay. So it reaches up into it
68 00:12:27,720 --> 00:12:40,170 trades off a little bit. And I mentioned on this particular day, on the video on the 27th of July 2022. I explained how the NASDAQ withdrawal back down into its
69 00:12:40,170 --> 00:12:49,950 imbalance, the s&p is going to do the same thing, folks. But I gave him a very specific target to reach for in the next day on the 28th which was 4075, which
70 00:12:49,950 --> 00:13:01,770 I'll explain why I got that level. And then I said 41 07 and a quarter. Okay, so by itself, that's enough. That's all you would need one good, strong setup for
71 00:13:01,770 --> 00:13:12,270 the week. And that's how you build your business model. You go in looking for one solid higher timeframe delivery. And you participate in if you can, if it
72 00:13:13,380 --> 00:13:24,690 gravitates over a period of several days, then you day trade it. Small little pieces going towards that common goal of higher timeframe array being 40 3050
73 00:13:24,690 --> 00:13:39,780 and 41 07 and a quarter. Now, these are the dividers here. Now I want you to think about the here's Friday's trading. Thursday is trading, Wednesday's
74 00:13:39,780 --> 00:13:49,410 trading Tuesday's trading in Monday's trading, I want you to think about how I was outlining and pointing your attention to how we were likely to go up to this
75 00:13:49,410 --> 00:14:00,810 level here. If we started the week here, and we dropped down here, and I said, take your profits cover your shorts below a specific price level, which I'll get
76 00:14:00,810 --> 00:14:14,820 to. I'll cover that in this lecture here as well. But I'm saying take your profits pay the trader below a specific level on a specific day. And I'm also
77 00:14:14,850 --> 00:14:29,130 aiming your attention here in here. Couple that together with a day of week. These lessons that I placed on his YouTube channel and I have been teaching for
78 00:14:29,340 --> 00:14:39,870 almost 30 years now. That generally if you're bullish, the markets tend to make the low of the week on Tuesday. Not all the time. Sometimes it's on a Monday,
79 00:14:39,870 --> 00:14:50,550 sometimes it's on a Wednesday depending on the economic calendar, but generally 70% of the time. Yes, 70% of the time now some of you in the past have gotten
80 00:14:50,550 --> 00:14:58,620 through and looked at every time the market had a higher close than that of the open on Monday. You go right to see a Tuesday was the low of the week. That's
81 00:14:58,620 --> 00:15:09,960 not what I'm saying here. When the technicals are in alignment, and I'm calling the market higher, based on my concepts, my tools and getting in alignment with
82 00:15:09,960 --> 00:15:15,540 the algorithm that runs these markets that books price, and then there's somebody you don't like to hear that, but I'm going to show you even further
83 00:15:15,540 --> 00:15:29,640 evidence of that tonight. Tuesday generally has a 70% likelihood it's going to create the low of the week. So Monday, not so interested in it, because there's
84 00:15:29,640 --> 00:15:42,120 no real economic news. Tuesday, we had data. Wednesday, we had data. Thursday, we had data going into Friday. And we saw the objectives met on Wednesday and on
85 00:15:42,360 --> 00:15:48,720 Thursday. But let's take a deeper dive into all of this and how it fits algorithmically on the higher timeframes.
86 00:15:55,230 --> 00:16:06,930 I want you to think about what you're seeing here. Now, this is not some kind of a triangle pattern for harmonic sake. Okay. But this is the pattern that I used
87 00:16:06,930 --> 00:16:16,290 to teach my students when I was teaching one on one back in the late 90s, early 2000s, I do not do one on one teachings anymore, but just understand that this
88 00:16:16,290 --> 00:16:31,140 is the approach of what I did. There's an old low, a high and a lower low that attacks that low. This is my ICT bearish breaker pattern. In this high up here,
89 00:16:31,560 --> 00:16:44,610 there's going to be something that's going to be used to act as real support. It is not the old high broken become support. It's not ceiling broken becomes
90 00:16:44,610 --> 00:16:53,820 floor. Okay, that's not that's not how these markets work. I know everyone wants it's so simple. It's just that easy. But you know what it was like the first
91 00:16:53,820 --> 00:17:01,020 time you saw that unboxing videos on YouTube, and people telling you this Instagram teachings and Facebook, teaching them workshops, and such, and
92 00:17:01,020 --> 00:17:09,090 webinars and things of that nature. All of a sudden, you went out into the live market, that stuff didn't hold up that. So I want to kind of like have you
93 00:17:09,090 --> 00:17:17,850 suspend your belief in support and resistance for a moment as well. Okay. Understanding that this pattern here has to have the logic that you know,
94 00:17:18,420 --> 00:17:25,830 because of higher timeframe order flow, the things I've already outlined, and I'll give you more amplification of that tonight here. Things that did not
95 00:17:25,830 --> 00:17:35,700 cover. But I would draw your attention to because of we've saw it painting. And I'm gonna give you more insight as to why I was able to tell you what I saw
96 00:17:35,730 --> 00:17:47,760 coming last week, and it came to fruition even in your own charts. We're looking for this level here in here. The market drops down here, below that old low.
97 00:17:48,390 --> 00:17:55,650 There's an initial draw down there. Why would it want to go there? Because the algorithm is allowing smart money to accumulate long positions right there. Now
98 00:17:55,710 --> 00:18:12,420 smart money. That's an entity that I've been pushing for 26 years. And largely it goes unnoticed, it gets left that it's Miss appropriated as Oh, he doesn't
99 00:18:12,420 --> 00:18:21,570 know what a market maker is because a market maker is delta neutral? No, that's a dealer. Okay. If you call yourself a market maker at a bank or an investment
100 00:18:21,570 --> 00:18:33,270 firm, you are a dealer. That's what you are, you're dealing with a price feed that you can't control. Hello, market makers are the ones that deliver the price
101 00:18:33,270 --> 00:18:43,890 to the marketplace. There's a location where that arrives from the gets piped into the marketplace. All these investment firms have an aggregate data feed
102 00:18:44,100 --> 00:18:53,400 that they're working within. What do you think that's coming from? Right? See, that's the problem with everyone out there thinking that when I talk about
103 00:18:53,400 --> 00:19:01,860 market makers, they think, Oh, he's talking about the Goldman Sachs market maker, or the guy that used to do market making with options on the crude oil
104 00:19:01,860 --> 00:19:11,280 market. And that's not a market maker, your dealer, there's a difference. Okay, a market maker, and this is why you're never going to beat the market maker.
105 00:19:12,060 --> 00:19:22,920 Folks. Okay, despite the guys that took my 99 six lessons and lectures and added indicators to it and call it a beat the market maker system. You're not beating
106 00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:35,430 any market makers, okay, beating them, because they're creating the price. They're setting the price. And then dealers deal with traders order flow coming
107 00:19:35,430 --> 00:19:49,170 into that. But guess what, if a large bank comes in and says we want this instrument to be priced here, it doesn't matter what your quote unquote market
108 00:19:49,170 --> 00:19:59,970 maker or what I'm telling you is a dealer is doing. Taking counterparties providing liquidity to traders in their in pull liquidity has nothing to do with
109 00:20:00,450 --> 00:20:13,560 absolutely nothing to do with how a large bank can reprice these instruments. Now, it's moreso seen in currencies, but the effects are still seeing in these
110 00:20:13,560 --> 00:20:23,610 instruments as well. You don't have to believe me. In fact, I want you to have a little bit of healthy skepticism, because I want you to think about what I'm
111 00:20:23,610 --> 00:20:36,510 gonna show you here tonight. And you draw the understandings of any retail logic that's out there. And think about the sheer odds of all those things, pointing
112 00:20:36,510 --> 00:20:38,400 to the very things I'm going to take your attention to tonight.
113 00:20:39,509 --> 00:20:50,039 It's laughable. Retail is not making these markets. Okay. So dealers are not making the markets, they're making a market for traders for that at present at
114 00:20:50,039 --> 00:21:02,249 market liquidity. But that is not making the market when I say making the market, they're controlling these instruments price all the time. Because if
115 00:21:02,249 --> 00:21:14,819 they want, we collectively could do what Reddit tried to do last year, laughably. They're gonna muscle the market. And they're gonna take stocks and
116 00:21:14,819 --> 00:21:29,639 push them to the moon and punish these billionaires. And that workout. You can't beat the people that have the commodity themselves. The instrument is there's a
117 00:21:29,639 --> 00:21:41,069 bank of a specific country, that's their commodity, that's their product, they set the price, you can't do anything that make it change. Okay. You may be
118 00:21:41,069 --> 00:21:49,889 booking a trade in between the fluctuations that are happening at the market right now, through the means of a dealer, that everybody first who is a market
119 00:21:49,889 --> 00:22:01,409 maker, that is not a market maker. Now you can say, Well, Michael, they're making a market for traders. In that specific time period. No, you're dealing,
120 00:22:01,709 --> 00:22:14,189 okay, that's not a market maker. They may take the other side of that trade. But in these markets, currencies and equity futures, there's enough liquidity that
121 00:22:14,429 --> 00:22:24,689 the one dealer that want to be referred to as market makers at specific investment firms. They're not the only entity out there. There's enough
122 00:22:24,689 --> 00:22:34,889 liquidity to take the other side of that trade. So that's not market making, in the sense that I'm saying there's a market maker that delivers price ultimately,
123 00:22:35,069 --> 00:22:49,289 where does it begin? Where does price begin? That dealer has to operate in a price feed that it has absolutely no control of. Now. There has been instances
124 00:22:49,289 --> 00:23:03,809 where markets can be spoofed and manipulated, yes. But largely, they're controlled above the Goldman Sachs level, above the Barclays level, above the
125 00:23:03,809 --> 00:23:13,919 city. That's what I'm referring to. When I say market maker. When I say a market maker, I'm talking about in forex and currencies, I'm talking about the actual
126 00:23:14,279 --> 00:23:23,789 Central Bank, that's the market maker, they're setting the price, and it doesn't care what your little trinkets are on your chart. It doesn't care about your
127 00:23:23,789 --> 00:23:35,039 harmonic triangles. It doesn't care about order blocks. It doesn't care about any of that. If it wants to reprice price, higher or lower several 100 pips in
128 00:23:35,039 --> 00:23:46,709 an instant, who are you to say they can't write? Who is Goldman Sachs, that's gonna say, You can't do that. Bank of Australia. Really, they're gonna say pound
129 00:23:46,709 --> 00:23:53,759 sand. Now that that actually goes on. But that's the equivalent of what would actually happen. The central banks are in control, whether you'd like it or not,
130 00:23:53,789 --> 00:24:02,969 you are not beating them. So when you see the market drop down below this, oh, low here. It's going down here algorithmically. So the market can provide the
131 00:24:02,969 --> 00:24:12,689 opportunity for smart money to accumulate the resting sell orders that are below that old low. Why would they want to have an interest in that? Because remember,
132 00:24:12,689 --> 00:24:21,659 I already took your attention to that level here, in that level here. Before the fact that was the target for the week. It just so happens that we dropped down
133 00:24:21,659 --> 00:24:29,579 on the day of the week Tuesday. Well, that's a 70% odds of doing what creating the level the week, don't take my word for it. Look at the channel content on
134 00:24:29,579 --> 00:24:42,209 this YouTube channel. I teach that. Here's that low with this pattern, graphically describing everything that goes on, and it's going down right here.
135 00:24:43,379 --> 00:24:57,209 We're gonna come back to this low in a couple minutes. But here it is. That low I drew your attention to that very particular price level 3920. Now there's some
136 00:24:57,209 --> 00:25:07,619 of you probably didn't pay that much attention to it. I understand. But I do not delete any tweets. I don't give two sides of the coin, or give one side. We were
137 00:25:07,619 --> 00:25:12,419 all looking here and here and 4075.
138 00:25:17,609 --> 00:25:28,589 Self adequately wrestling below that low. We dropped down into that on Tuesday and accumulate, those sell stops buying sell orders. So you're taking the
139 00:25:28,589 --> 00:25:38,009 approach of Smart Money accumulating what the selling interest is below here who wants to sell below there anyone that went along? And they put your stop loss
140 00:25:38,009 --> 00:25:49,799 below there. Why? Because that's support, right? So the book, say the book say, if the markets bullish look where it bounced before. And if it starts to run
141 00:25:49,799 --> 00:26:02,939 away, put your stop loss rate below that. And trust it. And I teach you look for that. That's your entries. That's your targets. There's a paradigm shift there.
142 00:26:03,869 --> 00:26:14,639 See, Smart Money does not look at charts and say where support and resistance. So they combined sell based on support being buyers and or resistance being
143 00:26:14,669 --> 00:26:27,569 sellers. That's not how they engage. They look for the retail perspective of how they're going to see price action like this. That's what separates me. That's
144 00:26:27,569 --> 00:26:38,399 why my analysis is so bang on majority of the times. That's why my bias is generally right. That's why my expectation what the algorithm is likely to do
145 00:26:38,399 --> 00:26:46,439 and where they're going to reprice to is generally about 90% accurate. And that's a staggering number for some of you that have never seen me operate. But
146 00:26:46,499 --> 00:26:56,579 those have been with me for years. No, this is the facts. Now, putting that aside, because I know that sounds egotistical, because it's not meant to be
147 00:26:56,579 --> 00:27:09,929 egotistical, I want you to understand that I'm using data points that are linked the algorithm. I'm showing you as much as I can show you, and I'm showing you
148 00:27:09,929 --> 00:27:20,849 proof here again, that these things are unfolding because of the logic I'm teaching in this YouTube channel, in the mentorship and in the future lessons.
149 00:27:22,289 --> 00:27:28,919 So we're seeing the market dive down on Tuesday, which there's a 70% chance that it's likely to create a low the week, we're already bullish. We're looking for
150 00:27:28,919 --> 00:27:39,419 this level here, here in this midpoint here. So the market rallies on Tuesday. And on Wednesday, we rally once more. And we create an imbalance. And I
151 00:27:39,419 --> 00:27:48,989 mentioned because of that imbalance, we would likely see the market drop down into that imbalance and rally on this deck. Because NASDAQ can even the s&p move
152 00:27:49,019 --> 00:28:02,819 in tandem. The same like likelihood of it dropping back down into the s&p should be expected. And I covered that in last week's videos. Now, let's scroll on back
153 00:28:02,819 --> 00:28:12,209 over here. So here's where classic Support Resistance theorists will say, Okay, here's the high where it stopped. So we have to put a line right there and draw
154 00:28:12,209 --> 00:28:26,519 that out in time. And if the market drops down into that, we can be a buyer. Well, what happened? Where's the support? Sorry, support left the building like
155 00:28:26,519 --> 00:28:38,339 Elvis. You have folks that say, Okay, we have the bodies of the candles, as you see a row classic retail, advanced Support Resistance theory, okay, we're gonna
156 00:28:38,339 --> 00:28:49,559 draw out the bodies. They're all laid out in time. And look at that. Went through that too. So that's not good either. So I already know somebody, you're
157 00:28:49,559 --> 00:28:55,499 thinking, Oh, well, anybody can go back in hindsight and pick things apart. But I've had folks out there, do that with me, but but I'm actually teaching you, my
158 00:28:55,499 --> 00:29:05,249 students what it's going to do before it happens. And it's happening like clockwork, that should encourage you, it shouldn't inspire you to go in and
159 00:29:05,249 --> 00:29:14,759 start looking for more things to doubt. I do these things to encourage you to keep digging into the things I'm sharing. Because if you can't see me doing it,
160 00:29:15,149 --> 00:29:22,349 then why would you reasonably expect to be able to learn how to do it because if a mentor cannot do it beforehand, call it beforehand outline with a great deal
161 00:29:22,349 --> 00:29:29,339 of precision than they really don't know what they're talking about. And there wouldn't be an algorithm if I couldn't do these things before it happens, right?
162 00:29:30,059 --> 00:29:40,019 That's what I want you to think about. That's the takeaway. There's a real algorithm running all these markets. I don't care who tells you otherwise. Let
163 00:29:40,019 --> 00:29:49,889 them come to this channel and tell me why it ain't. And I'll do this continuously right in front of them. It is what it is. So the market drops down
164 00:29:49,889 --> 00:30:03,029 into the halfway point of that imbalance here and the shaded areas over here. What is this? This is the very breaker the up Candle prior to the move lower,
165 00:30:03,869 --> 00:30:13,589 this bigger, beefier up close candle right here, that's what I'm looking at. Why am I not using this one over here?
166 00:30:15,420 --> 00:30:23,400 You could use it. But I like this one because this was the very last candle prior to a drop down. So this is going to be the bearish order block as well.
167 00:30:23,820 --> 00:30:32,220 But I'm not using the bearish order block for markets to see it go up here to sell off like it does there, that's fine. trades down to the low Tuesday, I'm
168 00:30:32,220 --> 00:30:43,500 not expecting it to hit that same level here again and sell off see what it does here it rams right through it. So in context, it was fine for a short here. On a
169 00:30:43,500 --> 00:30:51,660 day, we had really no real news dropping down into Tuesday 70% likelihood creating a little the week taking sell saw the Quiddity inside of a fair pay gap
170 00:30:51,660 --> 00:31:01,470 on a daily chart. Other factors, I want to show you a couple of minutes. Lots of things suggesting this is going to be low the week. The market rallies and runs
171 00:31:01,470 --> 00:31:15,030 into the 4030 and a half level drops down on Thursday into the imbalance I mentioned inside this candle, so we have a bearish order block which is a
172 00:31:15,300 --> 00:31:40,200 bullish breaker low we accumulate more Long's we accumulate more Long's delivery. So we're gonna take a big step back all the way up to the weekly
173 00:31:40,200 --> 00:31:48,630 chart. Now, here's that imbalance on the weekly chart. Okay, it's hard to see why it would be anchored anything here on the weekly chart, but you understand
174 00:31:48,630 --> 00:31:58,290 because of what I've shown you a lower timeframe charts. So this down close candle right here. I liked that because a nice big beefy body candle versus
175 00:31:58,290 --> 00:32:09,300 something like this. So I'm anchoring a level right there on that candles opening and extending out in time. Watch what the next weekly candle does.
176 00:32:09,390 --> 00:32:16,980 Remember, I already told you last week that we were looking for markets to reprice higher, and this level here and this level here was the weekly objective
177 00:32:17,130 --> 00:32:31,230 for E Mini s&p. But it has to come down into a specific higher timeframe. pdra What is that the weekly order block? The market opens here on the week, trade
178 00:32:31,260 --> 00:32:41,670 down, right in that level, then accumulates and sends it higher to the levels we were looking for and even further. Now, isn't that awesome? Look at that. You
179 00:32:41,670 --> 00:32:52,620 can't look at this as supply and demand. Because it didn't leave this area to come back down until it. It's in this area here. You see that? So we're looking
180 00:32:52,620 --> 00:33:04,380 through candles, we're looking through the logic that is prevalent with retail supply and demand ideas. And I know some of you like to use that stuff. And
181 00:33:04,380 --> 00:33:11,010 maybe you're attributing your winnings to that. But I promise you if you go through what I'm teaching, and look at when your supply and demand trades worked
182 00:33:11,310 --> 00:33:20,430 with the logic that I'm teaching how the algorithm prices, in books, these markets, you'll understand why your winning trades one, and you'll more
183 00:33:20,430 --> 00:33:31,500 specifically understand why you're losing trades last big paradigm shift here for the people that had the curves that go into that. So here's that same level
184 00:33:31,500 --> 00:33:45,120 here, that weekly order block, it's anchored here. Boom, Tuesday, this is Tuesday, last week, trades down into that low into the fair value gap. on the
185 00:33:45,120 --> 00:33:52,290 daily chart, that's it this blue shaded areas hits the weekly order block on Tuesday where there's a 70% likelihood is going to create what the little the
186 00:33:52,290 --> 00:34:05,400 week. We're aiming for this level and we're aiming for this level and we're aiming for this level. zoomed in. Here's my tweet on July 26 2022, at 1152, New
187 00:34:05,400 --> 00:34:19,710 York local time. Pay the trader under 3920. They're 920. Look at the size of the candles digs into the fear of a gap. The afternoon session creates one more pass
188 00:34:19,710 --> 00:34:31,350 through the bodies never close below 3920. And basically it just digs into that and we're off to the races looking for the objectives I gave you for last week.
189 00:34:31,560 --> 00:34:43,710 4030 and a half 4075 Why 4075 Because it's five points above midpoint which is 4070. So halfway between this level here and here, that midpoint that's what I
190 00:34:43,710 --> 00:34:53,640 was looking for an objective and then I said if it goes there, it can act as support which it does here rallies up in hits 41 07 and a quarter handled. So
191 00:34:55,380 --> 00:35:07,770 the question is, why is price reacting at the levels? I teach you, between this candles high in this candles low midpoint of that right here, off by one quarter
192 00:35:07,770 --> 00:35:08,220 of a point.
193 00:35:10,260 --> 00:35:23,310 Find Wycoff teaching that find supply and demand teaching at Elliott Wave harmonics. It's not there, folks. This stuff seems complicated. Because you have
194 00:35:23,310 --> 00:35:31,920 no rules. You've not been studying it, you don't know what you're looking for, because you haven't been taught, I'm teaching you. I'm showing you beforehand
195 00:35:31,920 --> 00:35:41,940 that it works. And I'm not leaning on any other logic that anybody else can say they taught me or had in a book or on a course. So it's time to put all that
196 00:35:41,940 --> 00:35:54,900 stuff aside, and just say, You know what, this man is willing to spend his time for free. To teach you something you would have never learned. I'm telling you,
197 00:35:54,900 --> 00:36:03,480 folks, you would have never learned this, I had to create this manual to get as close as I can see the algorithm, because you're not supposed to know about it.
198 00:36:03,750 --> 00:36:14,820 And I know that sounds secret mystery man, Huddleston, doing it all over again. But guess what, folks? It is what it is. I would love to sit down and say here's
199 00:36:14,820 --> 00:36:24,270 what the algorithm does, and done. But I can't. So I have to give you a language to be able to see these things in price action. So that way you can find these
200 00:36:24,270 --> 00:36:32,040 things that are repeating. There's many other things that are occurring. Lots of other things that I can trade with, but you're never going to learn those
201 00:36:32,040 --> 00:36:40,560 things. And I know some of you get mad when I say that. But here's the thing. If I'm giving you this, why would you want to do anything else? What do you need
202 00:36:40,560 --> 00:36:50,670 anything more for us the one pattern one setup, one framework, one model, sound money management that apply with that. And then hey, you have a really good
203 00:36:50,670 --> 00:37:00,960 trading plan, exercise, sound, discipline, and personal responsibility. Couple that with seasonal tendencies and understand when to push it when not to push
204 00:37:00,960 --> 00:37:09,360 it. August is not a month, you want to push it, what does it mean? Push it, trade a lot. Don't do a lot of leverage, do your trade with very, very small
205 00:37:09,360 --> 00:37:23,580 leverage. In fact, use the least try to aim for one setup a week. And when you get it, stop. Trust me, trust me, folks. That is the best advice I can give you.
206 00:37:23,580 --> 00:37:33,960 If you're now just becoming good at what it is I'm teaching you, you're starting to get a firm grasp on what it is I've taught, the worst thing you can do is go
207 00:37:33,960 --> 00:37:44,130 in here and try to push it because you think you're ready for it. And August is typically not a month, it is a very good market for booking, very symmetrical
208 00:37:44,130 --> 00:37:55,080 price action. Sometimes there's a flurry of activity in action. But generally, it's really a sloppy month. So expect that, go on vacation, take the whole month
209 00:37:55,080 --> 00:38:05,130 of August off, I'm taking half of it off. So if I'm taking half the month off, and I'm telling you, I've been doing this for 30 years, generally August sucks,
210 00:38:06,330 --> 00:38:19,170 period. So your precision may be off, your insights may be skewed, you may see something that may not really be there. And I'm certain because I've watched
211 00:38:19,170 --> 00:38:30,900 some of the youtubers that do live streamings. And they had a real hard time today. Because they're pushing it. They're expecting something to be there, when
212 00:38:30,900 --> 00:38:43,110 it's really not there. That's wisdom that comes from doing it painfully over and over again, in times when it's not likely to pan out for you. And I'm lending
213 00:38:43,110 --> 00:38:54,870 that experience to you. I'm trying to give this to you. But some of you are resisting it. You're literally fighting me. Know screw you ICT. Keep your money
214 00:38:54,870 --> 00:39:04,560 making stuff, okay? You give it to me for free. So it must not be worth anything. So, you know, just keep it pal. Okay, save it for somebody else
215 00:39:04,560 --> 00:39:16,500 because we're not buying here. Okay. All right, I understand. Not every one of you are gonna warm up to me, but try trading. When you lose your money, come
216 00:39:16,500 --> 00:39:26,370 back to this channel, I promise you it will be like an old friend greeting you very warmly. That's all I'm trying to be is a voice of reason. I can prove this
217 00:39:26,370 --> 00:39:34,560 stuff every single week. I can prove it every single day. I can push a button. I can do it with live accounts. I can do demo accounts. I can run up accounts big.
218 00:39:34,830 --> 00:39:48,450 I can do it in small shoestring budgets to pick your poison. I've done all that stuff. Now. Things are getting hard. And you have no idea how hard it's about to
219 00:39:48,450 --> 00:40:00,930 become. Making money is going to be very, very difficult and your jobs are not promised to you. Just because you show up every day. You're a model employee It
220 00:40:00,930 --> 00:40:05,070 doesn't entitle you to continuously earn income. They don't owe you anything.
221 00:40:07,770 --> 00:40:18,150 So, it's important for you to start working towards this skill set. Now. You have to have an alternative source. And it's not about getting rich. It's about
222 00:40:18,150 --> 00:40:22,860 making ends meet. Until next time, be safe