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ICT YT - 2022-07-29 - ICT Mentorship 2022 Market Commentary - July 28 2022.srt

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2022-07-29 12:48
1 00:00:06,060 --> 00:00:18,120 ICT: Alright folks, welcome back. This is our market review for July 28 2020. Starting off with the index features, let's see inside, s&p, September delivery
2 00:00:18,120 --> 00:00:28,440 contract daily chart right hand side, NASDAQ September delivery contract, daily chart. So last night, obviously I mentioned, we were likely to pull back down
3 00:00:28,470 --> 00:00:40,650 into the range of yesterday and then run higher given objective of 12,800. And then 12,009 73 in three quarters, just fell short of it today, the high comes in
4 00:00:40,680 --> 00:00:55,710 at 12 948. So just a little bit shy of that, but that's okay, I think it's still likely to pop through there. And on s&p, this was the centerfold for today, we
5 00:00:55,710 --> 00:01:03,690 had the market drop down in previous day's range as outlined same way with NASDAQ last night. And I'll refer to it again when we get into our chart. These
6 00:01:03,690 --> 00:01:12,000 both move generally in tandem, it means they generally move in the same direction, one will lead the other, and one will be weaker than the other. So
7 00:01:13,770 --> 00:01:28,680 again, gave you running above this return high and then 4075, or 4075, as the upside objective in here, and then 41 07 and a quarter, the high comes in today
8 00:01:28,680 --> 00:01:41,550 at 4111. Even. So it was able to sweep through that this has completed my week. So I don't need to trade on Friday, I don't need to do anything, I don't have to
9 00:01:41,550 --> 00:01:53,310 have any expectations. And more or less completes my week early. So I will be doing obviously the first episode of Ns, which is my new four part decide what
10 00:01:53,310 --> 00:02:02,460 it's going to be, it's gonna be a four part series. And tonight will be the first episode. Next Friday will be the second episode, there will be a break in
11 00:02:02,460 --> 00:02:11,190 between because I will be on vacation. And we'll put the following funnel to obviously when I get back from vacation, and I'll update you obviously through
12 00:02:11,670 --> 00:02:25,380 Twitter and on the Community tab on this channel. Alright, so let's break this down a little bit more on the hourly chart. Right so on the left hand side is
13 00:02:25,380 --> 00:02:37,500 s&p, we'll do this together on both markets that will get through this rather quickly. Alright, so we had the 27th, we had this by Sanibel sign in efficiency,
14 00:02:38,100 --> 00:02:55,710 that imbalance is noted last season the wrong one and we're gonna Amazon for our charts why? So getting a reference point between both of these points here. And
15 00:02:55,710 --> 00:03:13,740 it comes in at 3994 and a quarter. The low comes in at 3994 and a half. So it's only off by half here. So as it drops down, it's digging into this range. Much
16 00:03:13,740 --> 00:03:23,370 like I said over here, we would see the alley chart it would dig down into this range. I mentioned that it didn't need to come back down to this old high. But
17 00:03:23,550 --> 00:03:33,600 it did went through it that it rebalanced. All of this here. Hit that right there. In reality, my interest was not in NASDAQ why was it not in NASDAQ? Why
18 00:03:33,600 --> 00:03:46,050 wasn't I interested in this market here. The s&p had a very clear imbalance between 4030 and a half to 41 07 and a quarter. I felt that that was more likely
19 00:03:46,050 --> 00:03:57,630 to be delivered more precise. Even though we had the volatility and upside expectations on NASDAQ fulfilled except for its higher end target. This is the
20 00:03:57,630 --> 00:04:03,150 one I opted to trade in. So we're gonna go into a 15 minute timeframe.
21 00:04:08,669 --> 00:04:23,669 Alright, so we have sellside liquidity pool created here. I started this morning with my son's model gave him going long in here and taking a exit ring above for
22 00:04:23,669 --> 00:04:32,909 short term buyside liquidity and you can go to Twitter and see that then we have relative equal lows. It's dropping down. Now notice it's dropping down into what
23 00:04:33,869 --> 00:04:45,779 that previous day's imbalance. So this digging down in all that's doing is picking up what sell side liquidity. Those stops are being ran on long's that
24 00:04:45,779 --> 00:04:54,689 went from here and here. They felt like they're on side. They dropped it down. Judas swing. Okay, this is the power three concept that teach where it creates
25 00:04:54,689 --> 00:05:07,259 the open trades down, creates the low of the day and rallies makes a high date and comes off the high For your classic, open, low, high, close day. So we have
26 00:05:07,679 --> 00:05:19,739 Judas swing, trading the low of the day going long. In here, we'll look at that one, a five and two minute chart. NASDAQ same thing here we have relative equal
27 00:05:19,739 --> 00:05:30,539 lows, it drops down, takes those out, completely hits the imbalance, shown on the hourly chart, rallies comes back and fills a fair value gap here in the one
28 00:05:30,539 --> 00:05:42,719 o'clock hour start to rally on the fair value gap here fills in that rallies once more, and digs into our 12,800 target here and then just fell short of the
29 00:05:44,069 --> 00:05:58,259 next daily Maesa liquidity pool around 12,009 75. We'll call it the 4075 level I mentioned, tweeted today also to mention that there will be a good area for an
30 00:05:58,259 --> 00:06:15,569 executable to take profits. In the afternoon, we had another rally up into the 41 07 and a quarter level. It's dropped down into a five minute chart. Okay, and
31 00:06:15,569 --> 00:06:30,599 you can see the really nice optimal trade entry here. And for Vega. What's the highest candle 4070 in quarter so 4070 and a quarter low this candle comes in at
32 00:06:30,599 --> 00:06:44,669 what 4077 and three quarters waterblock. Three consecutive down close candles prior to that move there Vega, hammers it here. rallies that fulfills that final
33 00:06:44,939 --> 00:06:59,159 move the 41 07 and a quarter well NASDAQ similar fashion, we had a drop down into the fair value gap here sell side liquidity taken rally and just fell short
34 00:06:59,159 --> 00:07:08,879 termism didn't deliver as well as I would like it to have delivered obviously. But over here, the market I was focused on market and I gave commentary and
35 00:07:10,229 --> 00:07:20,339 hints and nudges on Twitter. This was the one that delivered out rather nicely for me. I'm seeing questions in the comments section I get a lot on Twitter as
36 00:07:20,339 --> 00:07:31,109 well. Why don't I talk about Dow or us 30? Don't do us 30? Do us 500 Don't do us 100 Because they're CFDs, we are not legally allowed to trade them in the United
37 00:07:31,109 --> 00:07:41,129 States. So I don't touch them. And besides I have access to the equities markets through the futures markets. So I trade those markets. So why don't I touch or
38 00:07:41,159 --> 00:07:55,979 trade the Dow 30 index, because it's too spotty. It's doesn't move as symmetrical as these two pairs here. So I use it for like SMT studies. In other
39 00:07:55,979 --> 00:08:05,759 words, I'm looking for one to fail to make a lower low, I'll use it in that capacity, but I'm not trying to trade it and you get more bang for your buck
40 00:08:05,819 --> 00:08:14,969 trading one of these two here. In fact, you could just trade one and just use the other as a barometer. Okay to support your idea. So it's not that I don't
41 00:08:14,969 --> 00:08:25,199 like the NASDAQ, it's not that I don't have the ability to trade dow I just prefer the s&p because it's just one of those markets I cut my teeth on in the
42 00:08:25,199 --> 00:08:36,929 early 90s 1990s In case you weren't paying attention. So we'll see if it wants to run up into that night 12,009 73 in three quarters of I believe it's going to
43 00:08:37,229 --> 00:08:48,479 take some next slide on the upside. So we'll see I'm not participating in Friday, I'm completely done. And if you go back and look at the analysis I gave
44 00:08:48,509 --> 00:08:53,549 on Monday, the Tuesday and Tuesday's trading. Right?
45 00:08:54,810 --> 00:09:05,430 Guided for 3920 You're covering your your shorts there and then contrast that with the 41 07 and a quarter level that's pretty much the weekly low and the
46 00:09:05,430 --> 00:09:15,630 weekly high. It's not exactly those levels, but that's the lines portion of the move. Okay. You do not need to be able to do what I did this week. And
47 00:09:15,630 --> 00:09:23,910 everything was shown to you in advance either on this YouTube channel or in tweets in front of everybody. No tweet was deleted. Nothing was ambiguous it was
48 00:09:23,940 --> 00:09:33,030 specific I specifically talked about one direction to the marketplace each individual day what I was looking for what levels what it was formed around in
49 00:09:33,030 --> 00:09:47,820 here we have it so let's go into the two minute chart and I'll show you the business on the morning session. Alright so we have sellside liquidity being
50 00:09:47,820 --> 00:10:02,910 taken hear relative equal lows the sweet down below it sweet down below it. So now we have what we dug into that imbalance on an hourly chart, as I explained
51 00:10:02,910 --> 00:10:10,020 in outlined on the NASDAQ, so it's not needed to be said in the s&p. Okay, so if you're gonna go back and listen to last night's commentary, and you're looking
52 00:10:10,020 --> 00:10:20,460 at s&p, you're not gonna hear me say go down into the imbalance that I showed on we show you on NASDAQ. I mentioned that we were going to dig into this, and then
53 00:10:20,460 --> 00:10:31,050 rally and reach for 12,800. And then 12,009 73. That was the outline last night. So what's the bias? The bias was bullish. It was doing what making the low of
54 00:10:31,050 --> 00:10:39,210 the day. And then rallying, I'm going to cover that here, I don't need to say the same thing for the hourly chart on s&p, because it's going to do what
55 00:10:39,330 --> 00:10:50,130 basically the same thing that NASDAQ is expected to do. Okay, so we're seeing that occur here, inside this little area, I'm going to shade this section in
56 00:10:50,130 --> 00:11:03,720 price action. Okay, so this box is this denoting where price went down below sellside. So now when I go into the hourly chart on s&p
57 00:11:10,980 --> 00:11:12,360 X, I gotta go back down into
58 00:11:14,460 --> 00:11:24,420 ensure that it's going to be visible on the hourly and then we'll drop into the 60 minute chart once more.
59 00:11:29,820 --> 00:11:43,110 Okay, and you can see, that's where the imbalance is. Okay, and it's calling for 3994 and a quarter, and it went down, it's just one quarter point short of it.
60 00:11:44,160 --> 00:11:54,090 So you can see 9450, so didn't get quite down to that final quarter point, that's fine. So inside this area here, it's digging down into that range, just
61 00:11:54,090 --> 00:12:00,330 like I explained over here in the NASDAQ portion of the commentary last night. So go back and listen to that video. Everything was outlined the targets what we
62 00:12:00,330 --> 00:12:10,740 were looking for today, everything, okay. This is what my product group has been privy to for six years, and calling these markets outline. It's been a lot of
63 00:12:10,740 --> 00:12:16,530 people out there on the internet, saying, I don't call the market, I can't call the weekly low, can't call the weekly high, I can't get the daily high, I can't
64 00:12:16,530 --> 00:12:24,180 get the daily low. I'm not consistent. I don't know what I'm doing. I can't treat these people are upset because I'm doing it consistently. And I'm teaching
65 00:12:24,180 --> 00:12:31,260 you, I am not making these videos in private mentorships anymore, I'm giving them out here for free because there's people that are trying to sell them in my
66 00:12:31,260 --> 00:12:40,650 private group. So kill that business for them and remove that marketplace for them. I'm doing here. So if you'd like these commentaries, give this video a
67 00:12:40,650 --> 00:12:47,160 thumbs up support this because that'll inspire me to keep doing what I'm doing. And starve those individuals out there that are scamming everybody else by
68 00:12:47,160 --> 00:12:57,210 selling things they had no business selling anyway. Accumulating long positions after sell side liquidity and digging into the imbalance and then targeting what
69 00:12:59,010 --> 00:13:12,060 the 44,075 level hit again, look at the commentary for s&p Last night. And then the 4107 and a quarter there it is. Okay, this is power three, open low today
70 00:13:12,060 --> 00:13:27,180 first rallies major target and then final target at the imbalance on analysis I gave you last night. Alright, let's go over to the dollar index. Alright, so
71 00:13:27,180 --> 00:13:33,720 here is the dollar index. This was a little bit of a sloppy market today. I mentioned that we would likely draw down into this area here between this
72 00:13:33,720 --> 00:13:42,660 candles high this candles low right in here. And we just fell short of what I was aiming for which is a little bit more prominent run below these lows here.
73 00:13:43,590 --> 00:13:55,680 So we'll likely see it trade into the 105 85 105 90. I'm looking for it to at least trade down into that and it was a little sloppy. We'll go into the 60
74 00:13:55,680 --> 00:14:08,880 minute chart. Okay, so here's where we were. Yesterday. It dropped down a little bit further, and then repriced back up to redeliver. Across all of this
75 00:14:08,910 --> 00:14:19,800 Southside delivery, we have a breaker here. low, high, high prior to the low is here. All these down close candles, that's a bearish breaker
76 00:14:26,280 --> 00:14:35,910 extended out in time, market trades right up into that it does not need to completely close that in because it's trading inside the breaker hits it rolls
77 00:14:35,910 --> 00:14:48,660 over and below this low here. That's the next sell side liquidity pool and then into the 105. All right here is the British pound. And we've called this last
78 00:14:48,660 --> 00:14:54,330 night so we'll be looking for that to be traded to still think that's likely especially with the continuation on the downside on dollar that I'm expecting
79 00:14:54,330 --> 00:15:10,410 going into London and tomorrow's New York session. We'll likely see British Pound versus US dollar deliver into this level here 60 minute chart okay, you
80 00:15:10,410 --> 00:15:20,670 see how he had his buyside balance drops down into it that 50% of that and then starts to rally. It looks nice in here for the sphere it got dug into that. So
81 00:15:20,670 --> 00:15:30,660 like to see it spring higher from there. It's good to Eurodollar Alright, here's the Euro dollar daily chart you can see we've dropped one more time into the
82 00:15:30,660 --> 00:15:37,740 fairway get on the daily chart, just thing banging around this trading range between the sphere Vega Unisphere. Vega, which is classic, what support
83 00:15:37,740 --> 00:15:46,920 resistance? No, this is institutional support resistance, if you want to call it that. Bottom line is we're moving back and forth between imbalances. Okay, so
84 00:15:47,340 --> 00:15:58,710 there's a guy out there on the internet was chatting, not directly to me, but replying to other people saying that my fair value gap is nothing more than a
85 00:15:58,710 --> 00:16:05,340 support resistance level. So all you got to do is go back and look at every one of my fair value gaps. And you'll see there's a trendline there where you can
86 00:16:05,340 --> 00:16:16,800 find old support old resistance. And the response to that is this show me the real support resistance level. Before my favorite a gap is there. Because see,
87 00:16:17,670 --> 00:16:28,170 I've seen many times individuals claim in books in courses in hindsight moves, that certain levels are going to be support or resistance and they go through
88 00:16:28,170 --> 00:16:37,200 them, okay, and I've lost a lot of money doing that kind of stuff. So these are the levels that I'm looking for when I'm going through my analysis and I'm
89 00:16:37,200 --> 00:16:47,160 expecting them to be recapitalized. So you can see them obviously being utilized here because the markets being held in a range so let's drop into a 60 minute
90 00:16:47,160 --> 00:16:57,360 chart Okay, the market rallied up into the imbalance here and then we sold off overnight and dropped down into what time seven o'clock in the morning that's
91 00:16:57,360 --> 00:17:07,440 the beginning of the ICT kill zone for New York open so the market digs into that rallies up to the imbalance between this low in this high I outlined this
92 00:17:07,440 --> 00:17:22,560 on Twitter. So between this candles low at 42 and this candles high at 75. Not bad for a little tiny bread and butter type setup. And it went once more down
93 00:17:22,560 --> 00:17:27,210 into an imbalance which we'll look at we'll go into a five minute chart
94 00:17:35,100 --> 00:17:50,160 here is the five minute chart digs into that daily fair value got it 755 rallies short term high taken out this shift in market structure bullish fair value get
95 00:17:50,190 --> 00:17:59,730 we dropped down at 825 Bam hit it was going to run to the imbalance between this candles low this candles high relative equal highs, buy sell liquidity and and I
96 00:17:59,730 --> 00:18:09,120 think that is going to be it for today. Hopefully, you've learned something this week. I will be away from analysis and trading on Friday. So I will post the
97 00:18:09,120 --> 00:18:18,360 video episode one of the new NS series at 10 o'clock Friday my local time. So if you have a clock set to New York local time all the time, you'll know what time
98 00:18:18,360 --> 00:18:28,050 it isn't ICT time. All of my analysis is rooted in Eastern Time, okay on New York local time. And that's what the algorithm operates on. What you'd like to
99 00:18:28,050 --> 00:18:34,680 believe it or not, it's not for me to argue you're just going to have to study it and determine whether or not there's any validity to it or not. But New York
100 00:18:34,680 --> 00:18:44,130 local time, everything's operating on that in the markets, not anything else. So anybody who tells you you can't trade with time based charts, run away from them
101 00:18:44,130 --> 00:18:50,670 because they don't want to talk to you about this week. I've absolutely did a clinic on price action, everything in advance precision like you've probably
102 00:18:50,670 --> 00:18:58,470 never seen in your life. And there was my esteemed honor to be able to share that with you. Next week, we'll continue with this carnival like atmosphere.
103 00:18:59,070 --> 00:19:00,960 Enjoy your weekend. Be safe