ICT YT - 2022-07-28 - ICT Mentorship 2022 Market Review - July 27 2022.srt

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2022-07-29 12:48
1 00:00:04,319 --> 00:00:16,529 ICT: Alright folks, welcome back, it's gonna be a brief review on FOMC, Wednesday. And we're looking at the dollar index on the left hand side. So we
2 00:00:16,529 --> 00:00:25,319 had our imbalance, old levels here, again, look at the previous commentaries in yellow, see what these levels have been referring to. And we came back down and
3 00:00:25,319 --> 00:00:37,829 found a revisit back into the 10642 level, you can see that over here on the hourly chart. Today, we had an ability to get up into the small little fear of a
4 00:00:37,829 --> 00:00:46,889 get running on piles of liquidity. And here's well ran up to that, and then FOMC sent it lower. And we do have a small pool of liquidity resting in here in the
5 00:00:46,889 --> 00:01:02,309 form of sell side liquidity. Be mindful that we can come back down into this area here. And I think that's where we're going to go for dollar euro dollar
6 00:01:02,339 --> 00:01:17,189 daily chart. See, we had finally moved down into the fair value gap on this daily chart, much like the POUND DOLLAR did and POUND DOLLAR has been off on a
7 00:01:17,189 --> 00:01:31,619 run. We traded down to it today here for euro dollar. And I like this imbalance of here. And the old low at 1.0340. That's something of interest. I'd like the
8 00:01:31,619 --> 00:01:43,799 idea of this gap over here being revisited and sending us up into that there. So the market had that fair value gap here, we had sell side to that into it today
9 00:01:43,799 --> 00:01:53,939 at FOMC. We rallied through it took out the short term high. But Basa liquidity in here looks promising on the upside.
10 00:02:00,780 --> 00:02:17,820 POUND DOLLAR daily chart over here. This is where I think it's going to go to for the upside. Mark has traded through this old imbalance here. And today I
11 00:02:17,850 --> 00:02:30,240 don't think we had here was around sell side liquidity. And then FOMC, something higher. Nothing in here would have been obvious for me. So we'll see if it wants
12 00:02:30,240 --> 00:02:40,200 to continue moving higher. Again, the fair pay gap here on the daily chart that's been shown over here. So it nice often trade entry. But that right there.
13 00:02:41,550 --> 00:02:50,520 This was the reason why I said cable or POUND DOLLAR was a better technical condition than that of the euro. And I'll go back up one more slide to so you
14 00:02:50,520 --> 00:03:00,510 can get an contrast. You had the cable market trade into its fair value gap and start moving away and then look at Euro Dollar. It just got into it yesterday
15 00:03:00,510 --> 00:03:04,770 and today come its way down to its low and then rallied up
16 00:03:10,500 --> 00:03:26,190 NASDAQ daily chart on the left hand side hit these relative equal highs up here. If we take off above these highs, and we start to rally even more. This could be
17 00:03:26,190 --> 00:03:36,000 where we're ultimately gonna be drawn to. But for now, near term, we're here. There's a small little s&p divergence between the s&p and NASDAQ just be aware.
18 00:03:36,780 --> 00:03:46,470 But I think that's just going to be short lived equals end up seeing NASDAQ run to 12 973. So I'd like to see a trade down into this box and also some
19 00:03:46,470 --> 00:03:56,910 inefficiency a little bit deeper. It doesn't necessarily have to come back to this old high but coming down into that area pick up along run relatively equal
20 00:03:56,910 --> 00:04:11,490 highs and see if we can get up into 12 800 and then maybe 12 975 attacking the buy side here. Alright, so we have the bullish order block here with a fair
21 00:04:11,490 --> 00:04:20,970 value gap. It trades down into that here that blue shaded area. That's it. This is over here on the hourly chart, and then the imbalance I mentioned this in the
22 00:04:20,970 --> 00:04:35,820 recording I gave you guys last night stating that NASDAQ has completed its imbalance here. And we anticipated that that would be repeated in Emini, s&p,
23 00:04:35,820 --> 00:04:46,830 but it actually failed to go lower. So I created something of an s&p divergence. And you see how moved higher and consolidated, ran higher. And FOMC just took
24 00:04:46,830 --> 00:04:58,830 off didn't give us any kind of real setup to work with. And didn't even take out the short term ha here as well. So one sidedness one of those days where, you
25 00:04:58,830 --> 00:05:12,240 know, I wasn't really focusing on NASDAQ, but even if I was I would have missed the move today FOMC Emini s&p daily chart left hand side you see short term high
26 00:05:12,240 --> 00:05:31,680 here that is knitted there, we have our imbalance here, price dug up into that I'm thinking that we could go reaching into the 4075. So that midpoint in here,
27 00:05:31,860 --> 00:05:42,960 that could be the next upside draw on Spoos and closing in the imbalance that would be, in my opinion, the target to reach for if we're going to continue
28 00:05:42,960 --> 00:05:51,540 going higher. So we have the Faraday gap I mentioned this last Friday. And I felt that we were going to drop down into that. So Monday's trading Tuesday, we
29 00:05:51,540 --> 00:06:03,570 dropped down into it. And then today, sent to hire to check out the short term high end trading up into this imbalance here on the fair value gap on the daily
30 00:06:03,570 --> 00:06:14,340 chart that blue shaded area and see we traded down below for sell side liquidity here and into that fair value gap. I mentioned on Twitter to take your short
31 00:06:14,340 --> 00:06:26,340 covering at 3920. That was a rather nice level, even in the afternoon went one more time below it and then rejected it since the higher this was the gap. Now
32 00:06:26,340 --> 00:06:38,010 initially, I had Southside liquidity of my opinion, the interest I was going to look for that to be tagged, I wanted to see FOMC dropped down in ahead of time
33 00:06:38,340 --> 00:06:44,310 to run that to start setting up setting up a situation where we could see a shift in market structure that will be bullish than a fair value, get the bid
34 00:06:44,310 --> 00:06:53,970 form, and then capitalize on a potential run based on that fair value gap here. So I was looking for sellside to be tagged first. And I gave levels on NASDAQ
35 00:06:53,970 --> 00:07:04,740 and gave levels on s&p, neither of those were tagged, the market has remained firm. And then as we approached the two o'clock hour, my local time rate for
36 00:07:04,740 --> 00:07:11,280 FOMC ease initial release, there's two stages FOMC, it's two o'clock to 230.
37 00:07:12,870 --> 00:07:23,070 This candle here is the two o'clock hour, it started to drop down and I was watching the 3962 level, it was based on this fair value gap on the hourly
38 00:07:23,070 --> 00:07:33,360 chart, I want to see a trade down into that. And that would have been a long for me. Now initially, I wanted to see it trade down in here, but just kept driving
39 00:07:33,360 --> 00:07:44,340 higher. So ahead of FOMC, two o'clock 230, it pushed in a pretty good premium, but left this short term high here, the market did not drop back down into a
40 00:07:44,340 --> 00:07:53,310 short term discount between this low and this high. So I did not participate, it didn't give me an opportunity to do what it is I was looking for. So it was a
41 00:07:53,310 --> 00:08:01,950 complete missed run today, that's fine, it's good for you to see me miss something like that. And see me look for specific levels and not see them traded
42 00:08:01,950 --> 00:08:10,950 too, because that's going to happen in your trading too. Okay, there's no harm, no foul, there's no failure, the model doesn't mean the system or the idea or
43 00:08:10,950 --> 00:08:18,510 concepts are failed or flawed. It just means that this is FOMC. And sometimes it's just once a reviewer writes face off, and you may not get an opportunity to
44 00:08:18,510 --> 00:08:31,590 get in and participate. So zoomed in on here on the hourly chart. That's the gap here. And I wanted to see it drop down into the head of done so I would have
45 00:08:31,620 --> 00:08:45,990 taken along and in for partial here. And a partial here, I would not have been getting out above 4131. That would have been, I would have been completely out
46 00:08:45,990 --> 00:08:54,090 of the trade. And I think it's fair enough for me to say something like that, and know that this matches pretty much what we'd be looking for. The reason why
47 00:08:54,090 --> 00:09:06,030 I was looking for this here is because I looked at it after we had priced in this run up going into two o'clock. I said in Twitter, I said you monitor 3962
48 00:09:06,360 --> 00:09:15,330 you that's a February gap right there. And I saw this low in this lower low. So we're gonna have stock run. And then we had to display some here. So this was a
49 00:09:15,330 --> 00:09:26,940 fair pay gap. This was the model idea, but it didn't form. Okay, so I'll show it to you again. Low what sell side sell side taken shift in market structure here,
50 00:09:27,450 --> 00:09:34,620 your rallies off so you'd put your fear between the low here and here. And equilibrium would be somewhere in this area here eyeballing it in the fair value
51 00:09:34,620 --> 00:09:43,170 gap. So if it dropped down into that, just touch that level right there. That would have been enough for me to go along. But didn't do it. And that's fine.
52 00:09:43,650 --> 00:09:53,580 It's no, it's no skin off my back. I don't really care. And like I said, it's good for you to see it. You know, I'm being honest with you. Sometimes I'm
53 00:09:53,580 --> 00:10:02,310 looking for setups and this won't give me the price I'm looking for and that's fine. There was no live trade last None of that stuff. There was no no position
54 00:10:02,370 --> 00:10:10,710 at all today. So I watched I gave a little bit more room that showed me something else going into three o'clock and 330. At that point I was I was done.
55 00:10:10,860 --> 00:10:19,020 You know, I wasn't interested in doing anything. I had moved already too far for me to consider doing anything with it. So it is what it is. So it's just a
56 00:10:19,020 --> 00:10:26,940 matter of studying price and monitoring and then logging in. And this is a missed opportunity for ICT. So hopefully you found this one insightful. We'll be
57 00:10:26,940 --> 00:10:29,610 back at it tomorrow, Lord willing until then, be safe.