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ICT YT - 2022-07-27 - ICT Mentorship 2022 Index Market Review - July 26 2022.srt

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2022-07-29 12:47
1 00:00:09,870 --> 00:00:13,980 ICT: Alright folks. Desire here
2 00:00:20,670 --> 00:00:33,960 Alright, so we have the s&p 500 September delivery contract for 2022. And this is the fair value gap I was mentioning last Friday in the market review. On the
3 00:00:33,960 --> 00:00:44,430 YouTube channel, I mentioned how I felt like it was likely to go down here and rebalance in this area here. And I felt like it was likely to come down in here
4 00:00:45,180 --> 00:00:58,650 to reprice into this area. So if we look at how price has been delivered today, it's been pretty much a down day. And then it reacted off of the fair value gap
5 00:00:58,650 --> 00:01:12,240 here. And I was playing that action here on late afternoon. So that morning session, though, was a little brutal, it was a lot of give and take, and we're
6 00:01:12,240 --> 00:01:20,790 gonna go into the lower timeframes. But before I go into any further, when it's time for him, I have no idea what we're going to do tomorrow, because FOMC at
7 00:01:20,790 --> 00:01:32,460 two o'clock, my students know that we sit still, we don't do anything, we wait for FOMC to release, first 1520 minutes, maybe 30 minutes of trading, after FOMC
8 00:01:32,460 --> 00:01:40,560 hits the market, then and only then would I be going in looking for something to trade, in balance, stop around something to that effect, but nothing heavy
9 00:01:40,560 --> 00:01:43,350 handed. Let's get down to an hourly chart.
10 00:01:48,930 --> 00:02:02,130 Alright, so we have today's trading here. So we have gap opening. I've taught you recently about those. And extending those levels out in time, you can see we
11 00:02:02,130 --> 00:02:15,330 had resistance in there. I'll have annotations and we go down to the lower timeframe the low that one hour to trade to below relative equal lows here. And
12 00:02:15,660 --> 00:02:28,170 I was on Twitter today I was outlining the 3920 level I mentioned, that would be a good idea to expect profit taking. Or you should be taking profits on your
13 00:02:28,200 --> 00:02:40,530 paper trading demonstrates while you're learning and look at the bodies of the candles here, look at the close on that candle 19.50 The open on this candle
14 00:02:40,860 --> 00:02:54,030 19.75. And all of them basically recourse that 20 level. Yet a couple of weeks that went down below but ultimately cumulated went higher. We look at the 15
15 00:02:54,030 --> 00:03:04,920 minute timeframe. Here is that daily fair value gap. So that blue shaded level is okay. And this is what I'll show him today on Twitter, kind of walking you
16 00:03:04,920 --> 00:03:20,130 through scrunched up a little bit. Here's the gap opening up time the market works that level. Another fair pay gap and here it closes that in. We have a
17 00:03:20,130 --> 00:03:26,910 shift in market structure which will be more apparent when we get into the five minute chart after a stop run, and then starts to work lower. This is what I
18 00:03:26,910 --> 00:03:35,700 mean by a lot of give and take back and forth back and forth back and forth. This can wear you down if you don't really have a majority in your study of
19 00:03:35,700 --> 00:03:45,300 price action been around for a while if you will, this can really cause you to second guessed trades can cause you to think that you have something and then
20 00:03:45,300 --> 00:03:54,930 quickly feel like it's not likely to pan out and it causes a lot of second guessing for new students for new traders using the things I'm teaching. That's
21 00:03:54,960 --> 00:04:08,160 normal. Okay. We'd like to have days where it's very clean, symmetrical price action, where the imbalances are obvious where the stop either by side or sell
22 00:04:08,160 --> 00:04:17,610 side is clear in here. It's a whole lot of just back and forth. Every time we would go down we come back back up, rebounds, come back up rebounds, come back
23 00:04:17,610 --> 00:04:28,590 up rebounds. So it's not a matter of just one sidedness. It was a very difficult morning session for anyone that has felt that today. That's a normal thing.
24 00:04:28,860 --> 00:04:36,930 Okay, I've watched a couple of live streamers today. And they were struggling this morning. Not that they trade my stuff. And I'm not here to beat anybody up
25 00:04:36,990 --> 00:04:44,640 in regards to that. But I was simply watching them and they were having a hard time reading this as well. We were looking for a bearish bias. Obviously I was
26 00:04:44,640 --> 00:04:55,320 looking for a significantly lower draw on liquidity. And again, that was on the daily chart. But again, we'll talk about that in a moment. But I want to drop
27 00:04:55,320 --> 00:05:14,250 down into the five minute chart Okay, and there is the business. Again, here is the gap opening, right here, extend those levels out. Because we are not
28 00:05:14,250 --> 00:05:24,180 supplying demand, we're not Eliot, we were not me that garbage. So we had the buy stops here taken and it returns back to the low end of that gap. It breaks
29 00:05:24,210 --> 00:05:36,420 the swing low to have shipped a market structure, fair value gap. So notice what we have here, we have a small gap there. But we have two of them expected to
30 00:05:36,420 --> 00:05:48,810 likely to run up into that, which is what we get here. So that's a short, break slower comes right back up in, bearish order block, sells off, back and forth,
31 00:05:48,840 --> 00:06:01,920 back and forth. What do we have to submit to that fair value got down here and scrunch this up. It's gonna be a little sloppy, but it'll take you to where I
32 00:06:01,920 --> 00:06:12,450 was pointing to. Over here ahead. The Faraday got mentioned on the Twitter chart, and I'll let you take a look at that.
33 00:06:18,930 --> 00:06:28,560 You can see why now I like to do PowerPoint, the charts exactly how I want it. And I don't have to wrestle with my OCD. So anyway, a lot of this back and
34 00:06:28,560 --> 00:06:39,420 forth, is problematic for someone that wants very clean price runs, the symmetric gold price moves that we're looking for that are very one sided. It's
35 00:06:39,420 --> 00:06:48,060 hard to read that in here. So you have to submit to the higher timeframe bias, which was that daily chart, fair value got down here. Okay, so again, I'll let
36 00:06:48,060 --> 00:07:00,660 you see that range that's ever here. And we also had an hourly fair value got, which I'll, I'll draw levels up in a moment. But I want to kind of go through
37 00:07:00,660 --> 00:07:09,480 this real quick. The morning session, break for lunch, we have one more fair vacant with a shift in market structure there. That's a short as well. So there
38 00:07:09,480 --> 00:07:21,540 was only two real primary setups that's for the session in the morning. That is this one here. And this one here, digging into the 3920 level, which is what I
39 00:07:21,540 --> 00:07:32,640 mentioned, good limit order would be placed around there. And again, I could place the tweets on this chart, but you can copy the links from my tweets and
40 00:07:32,640 --> 00:07:43,290 put them on your own charts and see where I said what I said. Then it digs down below that low here. Right here, and then we have an optimal trade entry. And
41 00:07:43,290 --> 00:07:55,170 it's better to look for strength in that fight this type of movement. So going in with buying strength, running relative equal highs, digging back up into that
42 00:07:55,170 --> 00:08:02,730 potential gap opening. So I'm gonna extend this out in time, I don't know if it hit it or not, it looks real close to it doesn't know how to get there, short of
43 00:08:02,730 --> 00:08:13,590 it. So it's not bad, but it's still drawing liquidity. So when we have draws on liquidity, you notice the description of what it is I'm referring to. And that's
44 00:08:13,590 --> 00:08:24,090 why I call it that it's not a definitive target. It's not a static targets, not a cast in stone is not a absolute panacea gonna be the only thing that it goes
45 00:08:24,090 --> 00:08:36,480 to, okay, it's just drawing price back to it. Okay. Now, we don't need the actual drawn liquidity to be hit, we're trading to or retreated to a reprice to
46 00:08:36,750 --> 00:08:46,920 none of that has to happen for us to get profitability in our setups. So we're looking for just the likelihood to frame that bias, where price should likely
47 00:08:46,920 --> 00:08:58,320 gravitate to and when that happens, we can look for logical levels and take profits. And this is where we're at the moment okay. I want to go up to the 60
48 00:08:58,320 --> 00:09:00,450 minute chart once more.
49 00:09:08,670 --> 00:09:09,720 And scrunch this up.
50 00:09:20,220 --> 00:09:21,180 So here is
51 00:09:26,760 --> 00:09:37,560 the level I had in mind initially, that would be the draw on liquidity. Now if you look at the NASDAQ. Okay, look at the NASDAQ. I'm not going to do that for
52 00:09:37,560 --> 00:09:51,090 you here. This is for your own homework. Look at your NASDAQ chart, same hourly. And where this fair value got forms on the ES here, NASDAQ was able to go down
53 00:09:51,150 --> 00:10:00,270 and get into its fair value gap. So this is a little bit of an SMT divergence, it fails to go lower. And we have that nice extrapolation throughout Sign
54 00:10:00,570 --> 00:10:17,610 returns back into the gap in here. So this level here and go one more time showing you with the hourly chart. Just falling short of that right there
55 00:10:25,500 --> 00:10:34,080 putting this there for myself, because overnight, I'm gonna watch how it reacts to that. Now extend them when it's necessary. It may not, it may not go up
56 00:10:34,080 --> 00:10:45,870 there, which is why I closed the trade that you saw me at opening in the video, but I want to be flat, have a clean slate going into the FOMC. Tomorrow, no real
57 00:10:45,870 --> 00:10:55,440 bias, I don't know what it's going to do, I have to wait and see what they do at the time of the FOMC announcements. And those types of events are very, very
58 00:10:55,830 --> 00:11:08,310 volatile. They can be very painful if you try to get in and find yourself offside. And it can move a lot against you. And if you're lucky, I'm not
59 00:11:08,310 --> 00:11:15,030 suggesting that any of you should try to roll the dice to try to be lucky tomorrow. But if you are lucky enough starts running in your favor. It can be an
60 00:11:15,030 --> 00:11:21,990 exhilarating feeling. But just remember, that's casino time type trading. And that's not what we try to promote around here. At least that's not what I try to
61 00:11:21,990 --> 00:11:36,360 promote. So anyway, that is the business for today we had a little bit of a sloppy morning session, but ultimately deliver with our bias. I don't have a
62 00:11:36,360 --> 00:11:46,710 bias tomorrow. So I don't know what they're going to run for. Okay. If I had a gun to my head, and I had to tell you what I think might happen. They could do
63 00:11:46,710 --> 00:11:56,490 something like run it up, reject it and come down into this area here after FOMC. That's one of the things that I'm looking to see if they do well I'd be
64 00:11:56,490 --> 00:12:07,320 positioned to be able to participate in that. Absolutely not. So if it does it during the FOMC announcement and it moves like that. Great. It's a moral victory
65 00:12:07,710 --> 00:12:17,550 isn't absolutely nothing. I will not be positioned ahead of FOMC. Okay, I might not trade at all after FOMC depends on how the market books and I don't know
66 00:12:17,550 --> 00:12:26,190 what it's going to do. And I want you to understand that. So don't go in like there's some secret message being conveyed to you. There's some subliminal
67 00:12:26,190 --> 00:12:36,150 message like hey, buy yourself short. No, stay on the sidelines, sit on your hands, don't do anything. Study, watch price, see how it behaves, and we'll see
68 00:12:36,150 --> 00:12:42,240 what we get when the cards fall. Okay. And until I'll talk to you tomorrow, Lord willing, be safe.