ICT YT - 2022-07-19 - ICT Mentorship Market Review - July 18 2022.srt

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2022-07-23 11:41
1 00:00:05,850 --> 00:00:20,130 ICT: Hello, folks, welcome back. Back in the saddle again. Now it's been a little bit of a wait for upload and update from Ghana YCT. But I'm human, and
2 00:00:20,130 --> 00:00:32,760 sometimes my body just doesn't want to do what it's asked to do. And I've been battling back spasms and migraines. So I not been feeling well. So I have not
3 00:00:32,760 --> 00:00:42,810 been able to start the new NS series that I'm going to have one as YouTube channel to Lord willing, I'll be working on this week. The first episode, if I
4 00:00:42,810 --> 00:00:51,870 can get it all sorted out and outlined as I want it. I don't know how many episodes it'll be. So don't ask that because I don't know what the first episode
5 00:00:52,320 --> 00:01:08,670 should be. If everything goes well, this Friday at 10pm. Eastern time. And I think we'll go like once every week, so a Friday night upload for, for that
6 00:01:08,670 --> 00:01:20,610 particular series. Alright, so I've been out of the loop for a little while. When I'm away from the marketplace, I get detached. And it takes a few days for
7 00:01:20,610 --> 00:01:34,410 me to get back in sync with things, work out sentiment. You work out the kinks in my own analysis and push away any kind of preconceived ideas that I would
8 00:01:34,410 --> 00:01:43,080 want to see in price kind of wrestled that out. And how do I do that I go through demonstrates, okay, I go in, and I work with a demo account, to get
9 00:01:43,080 --> 00:01:51,360 myself acclimated to the current market conditions. That way, when I'm doing things incorrectly, it doesn't harm me doesn't hurt me, it doesn't take anything
10 00:01:51,390 --> 00:02:01,740 out of my account. Doesn't cost me money. But it does give me the ability to hopefully get in sync. And then what happens is when I feel acclimated to the
11 00:02:02,010 --> 00:02:11,490 present market conditions, then I'll go in and trade with the smallest leverage with a live account for one or two trades is to get a feel for being back in the
12 00:02:11,490 --> 00:02:23,760 marketplace and not more or less Chase profits. So I get that asked a lot. And there's your answer. So we're gonna be working our way bottom up from the E Mini
13 00:02:23,760 --> 00:02:35,040 s&p today. Nice. Hello, have you watched me do some work in this in the morning session. And I'll cover a little bit of that here. Alright, so we're looking at
14 00:02:35,040 --> 00:02:49,620 a five minute chart. And what I was watching is the lows here. And even the lower here in a small little gap right in here. I watched the drop down at 830.
15 00:02:50,400 --> 00:03:02,130 We consolidated at 930. We had equities opening and then we dropped down in. So if you look at the down close candle here, so this down closed candle, and then
16 00:03:02,130 --> 00:03:12,780 this one dropping down into the touch it, I was utilizing that as my mode of entry. So I was looking at kinda like a stacking effect, with down close candles
17 00:03:12,780 --> 00:03:27,180 or my order block. And I wanted to see it go over this imbalance, which it did once. And then I wanted to see it expand and go through it struggled with it. So
18 00:03:27,510 --> 00:03:37,830 in the recording in the link, you'll see in the description below this video, it'll take you to Twitter. And it's a short little vignette showing me executing
19 00:03:37,830 --> 00:03:47,640 the entry. And then changing my mind realizing I'm off side, that means I'm wrong. That means I'm not on the right side of the marketplace. And it doesn't
20 00:03:47,640 --> 00:03:56,010 necessarily mean I go reversing whatever trade I was in all the time. But because I'm trying to get back in sync with the marketplace, I want to be in the
21 00:03:56,010 --> 00:04:05,040 market continuously. Now. Let me make sure you understand what I just said, because I'm not stating that you as my students should be going long, short,
22 00:04:05,040 --> 00:04:15,000 long, short, constantly in the marketplace. No. But for me, it allows me to get a feel for price action and allows me to get in sync with price action. It gets
23 00:04:15,000 --> 00:04:24,360 me closer to price, versus just sitting down in front of the chart and saying okay, well. This is what I think might happen. Whereas I'm engaging. And I'm
24 00:04:24,360 --> 00:04:29,610 thinking about what it's doing while I'm in a pseudo trade because today was a demo trade.
25 00:04:30,899 --> 00:04:44,339 I'm trying to seek more insight, a closer feel for what price is doing. Because you're being away from it for a week or more. It keeps me from feeling confident
26 00:04:44,819 --> 00:04:54,509 with my own analysis. So that's the human side of me that like you and everyone else I wrestle with that. So I have to fix that and overcome it the only way I
27 00:04:54,509 --> 00:05:04,739 know how to do it and that's how I do it. I ease back into it using demo than once I get comfortable with where I am with present market conditions, where I
28 00:05:04,739 --> 00:05:16,679 think the markets will likely draw to, then I'll ease back into live trading. So anyway, I was looking for the market to want to run back above this imbalance
29 00:05:17,189 --> 00:05:26,969 and attack the buy side, then I was going to take a partial off on the 12 contracts I had long and then reach for the objectives I've hinted at as my
30 00:05:26,969 --> 00:05:37,889 interest for buyside, which was the July 8, and June 27, and 28th relative equal highs for bisend liquidity. And we'll see those in a couple of minutes when we
31 00:05:37,889 --> 00:05:50,939 get into video. But when we got to this point here and struggled, right on this candle here, I was thinking myself, Okay, I'm wrong. Let me close it. And it
32 00:05:50,939 --> 00:06:00,089 didn't, it didn't stop me out. I didn't take a loss, quote unquote. Again, I couldn't hear loss anyway, because it's demo. But the idea was, I was exiting
33 00:06:00,089 --> 00:06:11,129 the trade. So that way, I can reverse because I started looking at the relative equal lows here. And I wanted to be taking five contracts off below that. And
34 00:06:11,129 --> 00:06:19,319 then you watch me do another partial and another partial and then finally getting stopped out. But this thought that I lowered down during the management
35 00:06:19,349 --> 00:06:31,859 of the reversal and short that went sideways, leading up to the launch New York launch, then it fell out of bed during lunch hour. And then in the afternoon
36 00:06:31,859 --> 00:06:43,289 session I just watched I didn't really participate in do anything. While I felt it could potentially go a little bit lower, to take out the low of the day set
37 00:06:43,319 --> 00:06:53,009 overnight. I was not immediately I was not expecting all of this drop. So each time it created this what I was doing as I was watching and observing does it
38 00:06:53,039 --> 00:07:03,929 respect price? Going to these levels, the imbalance here hits it. And it's order block to sell off. Yes, we create a fair value got last to close candles that
39 00:07:03,929 --> 00:07:14,729 you're bearish order block, does it go up into that and hit that and sell off? Yes, it does. So when price is doing that, and I don't want to be in the
40 00:07:14,729 --> 00:07:24,119 marketplace. I don't trust my own analysis because I'm right back in the saddle today. So I'm not trying to get out here and flex I'm not trying to prove to
41 00:07:24,119 --> 00:07:34,109 myself that old man still got it. It's easing back in. Because I've been away from charts. I've been away from price, I don't feel connected. So I'm watching
42 00:07:34,109 --> 00:07:44,069 price book like this. So it's allowing me to see price being delivered real time. I'm watching it, I'm seeing does it react the way I teach my my students
43 00:07:44,069 --> 00:07:56,729 you all to support the idea that orderflow is bullish or bearish. And obviously, it just kept sinking today. And I was impressed to see how far it went. And I
44 00:07:56,729 --> 00:08:05,339 would be doing a terrible disservice. If I sat here and said, Oh, yeah, I knew it was gonna go down at four. Because I didn't, okay, I didn't know I didn't
45 00:08:05,339 --> 00:08:13,559 expect it would drop that far. And obviously, I went into the day with an expectation that we'll try to run for July 8 is high. And I was wrong. But you
46 00:08:13,559 --> 00:08:21,719 watched me navigating, reversing and get back in sync with what it was at least trying to deal in the short term, which wasn't very much admittedly during the
47 00:08:21,959 --> 00:08:29,789 morning session, but then all the fireworks happened during lunch hour and then rolled right on down into the low of the day.
48 00:08:33,960 --> 00:08:44,010 15 minute timeframe, here is that imbalance also I was watching. So I was looking for the willingness to want to drive higher clear the buy side here,
49 00:08:44,040 --> 00:08:51,750 parcels would have been taken there, a partial would have been taken there. And then I would have tried to keep at least one contract long just to see if I can
50 00:08:51,750 --> 00:09:02,130 get this with a weekly range wasn't in the cards, it is what it is I was wrong. No problem. no skin off my back. I don't feel embarrassed. I don't feel like my
51 00:09:02,130 --> 00:09:10,710 methods don't work. I don't feel like my models are failing. It's just me the operator the trader, that is rusty at the moment because I have not been engaged
52 00:09:10,710 --> 00:09:22,230 in price. So anyway, while I did not see this as a setup for entering a short, I wanted to see it overcome that understanding that it failed to rally and go
53 00:09:22,230 --> 00:09:33,780 above this high. It should have took off. If I'm right if I'm on side, it should have vaulted above here to run for the buy side. It wasn't doing that. It was
54 00:09:33,780 --> 00:09:46,470 not doing that. So around 31 seconds or so into the video length that you see in the description. You'll see me change gears and collapse the trade and then go
55 00:09:46,470 --> 00:10:00,510 short. Now the opening gap for the week is here. So I'm extending it through time. All today and that is where I thought it best case scenario. thought that
56 00:10:00,510 --> 00:10:08,850 it would gravitate to that. Anything below that is additional that I was not expecting. So just below the low here, I was mentioning the early lows
57 00:10:08,850 --> 00:10:16,170 overnight. If it went lower, it should go there, take the sell side. And then if it accelerates through that, well, here's the opening gap, which I've taught you
58 00:10:16,170 --> 00:10:27,840 recently. So it went to that yes, and just get bone rolling. And we have an imbalance down here. So we have now a low below. So that might be something to
59 00:10:27,840 --> 00:10:37,770 watch. I'm interested in that level as well. On the hourly chart. Okay, here is the hourly imbalance. Again, that was the fair pay gap I was looking for as it
60 00:10:37,770 --> 00:10:50,280 dropped down in, I wanted to see it trade above partial here. Next partial here and in relative equal highs. Okay, so here's the June 27 28th 2022. Highs. And
61 00:10:50,280 --> 00:10:59,550 here's the high I mentioned, this is the two levels I was referring to, in Twitter to study going forward. Now, they might be useful going forward the rest
62 00:10:59,550 --> 00:11:09,510 of this week, or they may not even be considered at all and make tenuously just break lower, and go back into this imbalance down here. I don't know that yet.
63 00:11:10,110 --> 00:11:22,860 Like I said, I'm, this is my first day back in the charts. I'm getting a feel for it right now. I feel like the first day where I knew my model, but I'm just
64 00:11:22,920 --> 00:11:30,180 out there using it for the first time. So if I can personify the the feelings I have, when I'm away from the marketplace, it feels like that. I know how to
65 00:11:30,180 --> 00:11:39,630 trade I know what I'm looking for. But you still have to consider where you're at in the marketplace. Now, some of you might be thinking, Well, why would you
66 00:11:39,630 --> 00:11:50,670 want to be buying here when you're all the way up to close to this high from down here? Well, it's shown exceedingly strong intentions to go higher. My
67 00:11:50,670 --> 00:11:59,070 private group know about this, we went to that at the opening on Sunday. And then it filled the gap. And then it rallied. So in my mind, I'm thinking there
68 00:11:59,070 --> 00:12:07,500 really isn't anything over here that's needed to fill in. So liquidity above this high makes the most sense to me. So that's why I wasn't worried about and
69 00:12:07,500 --> 00:12:16,740 if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. It's, you know, it's not a make it or break thing. And this is why I teach you to I'll teach you that being wrong or doing it wrong
70 00:12:16,740 --> 00:12:25,170 incorrectly, that shouldn't be feared. Because you're never going to obtain perfection, that's not going to happen. I can't do it. So if I can't do it, and
71 00:12:25,170 --> 00:12:32,610 I'm teaching you the concepts, I authored these things, and I can't reach perfection, why would you expect to be able to do so that's unreasonable and
72 00:12:32,610 --> 00:12:43,680 unrealistic. So anyway, while in the afternoon, I was expecting the likelihood of coming a little bit lower a little bit is what I was expecting this was a
73 00:12:43,680 --> 00:12:56,910 little more, much more actually, than I was expecting on the downside for today. So it's done a whole lot of movement lower. And to me, we have by side here by
74 00:12:56,910 --> 00:12:59,190 side here, and by side here.
75 00:13:01,410 --> 00:13:13,620 Between this low and this high, we are in a short term discount. But there's nothing in here that makes any sense to go long off of. So I'm basically waiting
76 00:13:13,620 --> 00:13:19,590 for more information, we'll see how it trades overnight and on into New York tomorrow. And then obviously, I'll share with you on Twitter where my focal
77 00:13:19,590 --> 00:13:28,200 points are for liquidity, basically kind of like tip my hand to where I think biases. So that's how I teach I point. And then my students study going forward.
78 00:13:29,220 --> 00:13:43,440 So let's continue on the daily chart here. This range is where we're at. And we've taken sellside here, and we've taken sellside. Here, we have not taken by
79 00:13:43,440 --> 00:13:57,510 side, here, or here. So to me again, that's why I'm leaning on those levels that I've shared, which is July 8, and June 27 28, respectively, okay, because those
80 00:13:57,510 --> 00:14:05,730 levels have not been traded. Now, I could be completely wrong. It doesn't need to go up there. In that case, I would be wrong. If it continuously goes sideways
81 00:14:05,730 --> 00:14:15,660 or goes lower, whatever I'm wrong. But it makes sense to me to want to eventually try to gravitate to those levels. Because we've already done sellside
82 00:14:15,660 --> 00:14:27,180 here, we did a pass through on this low four sellside there. And while we did have a nice return pack here, we fail to go higher here. And today, we couldn't
83 00:14:27,360 --> 00:14:37,470 get above here now that might be indicative of the beginning of a sell off going into the rest of the week. I don't know that folks. I don't know. So I'm trying
84 00:14:37,470 --> 00:14:46,920 to be transparent, honest with you as an educator because there are times I simply don't know. It may be a barrier internally that I'm wrestling with it.
85 00:14:47,280 --> 00:15:00,960 I'm seeing something that I think might be a factor and I override the rules sometimes that I have that might not be the best decision. That's where I do it
86 00:15:00,960 --> 00:15:10,440 as the operator incorrectly. And I'll do it wrong that way. But sometimes that'll happen in my experience will be rewarded. And I do that with quotes in
87 00:15:10,440 --> 00:15:21,420 the air with me trusting my experience, and then not adhering to my specific rules about specific elements of price, that may or may not be something that
88 00:15:21,420 --> 00:15:34,080 you've learned from me, that might deliver a result that I would find favorable. So it's a matter of personal experience. And sometimes, that might be a good
89 00:15:34,080 --> 00:15:42,780 thing. And other times, it may not be a good thing. So you can't really, you can't really appreciate that, especially if you're a new student or a new
90 00:15:42,780 --> 00:15:51,510 trader, because there are times when you'll see something that isn't inside the model that you're actually working with at the moment. But you will engage price
91 00:15:51,510 --> 00:15:59,550 because you've been here before, you've done this before. And it's familiar to you. And you know, you're trying to get you're not trying to get homerun, you're
92 00:15:59,550 --> 00:16:06,330 not trying to get a whole lot of movement, you're just trying to get something to take it out and pay yourself. And that's kind of like what I did today. I had
93 00:16:06,330 --> 00:16:16,380 it wrong initially in the beginning today. And I compensated, close the trade reversed, and took what made sense to me. And you can see the results of that.
94 00:16:16,830 --> 00:16:29,580 But I'll talk a little bit about this trading range in a moment. The last time we talked about gold, I don't know exactly what day that is. But I'm quite
95 00:16:29,580 --> 00:16:39,480 certain that I did talk about it. And you all know that we were looking for this here. So y'all know I was calling the dollar higher. And that's going to allow
96 00:16:39,660 --> 00:16:47,940 weakness on gold because they're inversely related. Okay, so there is a correlation between gold going lower, that means dollar going higher, and vice
97 00:16:47,940 --> 00:16:59,730 versa. This market, let me preface it by saying that it is a event driven market, it's highly manipulated is absolutely manipulated all the time, which
98 00:16:59,730 --> 00:17:08,970 means that you have to really consider it only when it's obvious to mess with it. And most times, I'm not feeling confident trading it. Otherwise, I'd be in
99 00:17:08,970 --> 00:17:15,780 here doing all kinds of things with it, I'm not. So I mentioned how I felt the Dow is gonna go higher gun to my head, that means we're going to aim for the
100 00:17:15,780 --> 00:17:23,460 sell side here. And then here, we've done that. Okay, so I didn't give you both sides of the marketplace, I told you a gun to my head, this is where I think
101 00:17:23,460 --> 00:17:33,450 it's gonna go, we did that. Now, this is the remaining cells on liquidity pool. So because that has not been traded to, I feel that it could go down there. That
102 00:17:33,450 --> 00:17:41,010 means that dollar could still have a little bit more room on the upside. So just keep that in your back pocket. Just know that that's kind of like what I'm
103 00:17:41,010 --> 00:17:47,310 considering, but not necessarily pushing you into a trade idea. You just observe it and see what happens. I could be wrong.
104 00:17:50,220 --> 00:17:57,900 And finally, the bond market oh my goodness, it's been such a long time since ICT talked about the bond market. Even in my private group. We haven't been
105 00:17:57,900 --> 00:18:06,450 touching on this market. But the reason why the SMP market is consolidating right now is because you're seeing the same consolidation going on in the bond
106 00:18:06,450 --> 00:18:18,000 market. Interest rates are consolidating. Until this range gives way either above or below that's needed here. index futures are going to be choppy, okay,
107 00:18:18,000 --> 00:18:29,850 there'll be a very, very small tight ranges, and not tight ranges in certain of intraday, but in terms of the daily ranges, there'll be not trending where
108 00:18:29,850 --> 00:18:38,100 they're having like a movement like this, okay, nice big runs. We're in this range here. So while interest rates are holding the market in a strangle, or
109 00:18:38,430 --> 00:18:47,550 like a headlock, just be mindful that you have to be a very short term trader, and things that I would normally do with a trending market. I'm not implementing
110 00:18:47,550 --> 00:18:55,980 right now because of this factor right here. Okay, if you go back and study how the bond market was when it was trending, and when I was allowed to move a lot,
111 00:18:56,160 --> 00:19:07,290 that's when index futures was moving a lot. Okay. Try not to think too much about their agreement or the inverse relationships of direction. I'm speaking
112 00:19:07,320 --> 00:19:18,750 specifically on the tone of the market being in trending for consolidation. Okay, so right now we're in consolidation. So in consolidation markets, you got
113 00:19:18,750 --> 00:19:27,720 to be thinking Ultra nimble, intraday trading, not short term trading, not get in hold for a couple days, none of that kind of stuff. There will be moves that
114 00:19:27,720 --> 00:19:37,500 take place like that, but I don't trade like that when it's like this. This environment is a session de trade scalp. Okay, that means I'm looking for a
115 00:19:37,500 --> 00:19:46,290 specific run in price, either in the am session or pm session. I'm looking for one good setup. I'm not trying to go in here with multiple orders that pyramid
116 00:19:46,290 --> 00:19:57,150 anything. I'm looking for one good setup, get the bag and run. Okay, that's all I'm trying to do. If I get one trade that's profitable. I'm not going to go back
117 00:19:57,150 --> 00:20:11,070 in in the afternoon period. Okay, I'm treating myself, like a kid in a candy store. If I let myself go nuts, I'm gonna do a whole lot of things that might
118 00:20:11,070 --> 00:20:21,660 not be the best thing for me. When I have a trending market, I can go insane. And run, Echo real quick and build it, build a pyramid and all that. But in
119 00:20:21,660 --> 00:20:31,980 here, I can't do that and feel confident about because it's choppy, we're in the summer months, okay, so we're in the doldrums of the summer, and everything
120 00:20:31,980 --> 00:20:38,550 that's going on, and I'm not going to list all those things that's going on, you just know what's going on based on the headlines, all those things can create a
121 00:20:38,820 --> 00:20:49,890 run real quick, because of an unexpected event. And just put some thought behind it. And you'll know what I mean by that. All those things. Keep me wanting to be
122 00:20:49,890 --> 00:21:01,200 very nimble, okay, five minute or one minute chart, setup only, not 15, hourly, or daily candle. For daily range, I'm not interested in those things, okay.
123 00:21:02,220 --> 00:21:11,400 Which is why I was not able to see or expect the big down day that took place during the lunch hour in New York down to the closer today. So that's the reason
124 00:21:11,400 --> 00:21:22,290 why I was unable to see it. Because my models switched me from trending to highly specific short term little entries and getting in getting out surgical
125 00:21:22,290 --> 00:21:32,220 strikes. And I'm aware that there are gonna be days where I will miss days that have runs, where it just keeps on going. I'm okay with that. Because they're not
126 00:21:32,220 --> 00:21:43,620 always going to fulfill or be in alignment with what I'm trying to do. Or let me rephrase it by saying, I will not always be in alignment with that. So as a
127 00:21:43,620 --> 00:21:53,100 trader, I'm not in that mindset that will allow myself the whole for full daily range. Especially if my bias as I was in the game this morning that I want to
128 00:21:53,100 --> 00:22:03,180 see the bias I run to, but because it wasn't doing that, I changed what I changed directions. And I also changed my style. It's going against what I
129 00:22:03,180 --> 00:22:12,960 expected. So therefore I want to get out and be nimble, because I might be wrong again. So I want to get below the sell side liquidity and take my profits,
130 00:22:13,200 --> 00:22:21,690 aggressive, take partials, partials against partials and then stop was put in position where if it ran me out, I don't care. It wasn't gonna take anything
131 00:22:21,690 --> 00:22:33,810 from the demo equity. Okay. So, again, it's not trying to produce the idea or promote the idea in you as my student that you have to be in all the time. If
132 00:22:33,810 --> 00:22:41,760 you're not profitable going long. That means go short. No, no, no, don't do that. Don't do that. Okay, that's not what I was trying to convey today.
133 00:22:43,080 --> 00:22:51,870 I just saw something that made sense going the opposite direction. And there it is. So you can see how I can get it wrong. But even in instances where I'm
134 00:22:51,870 --> 00:23:01,560 wrong, if I understand what I've done wrong, I can reverse it and work with that information. And I'll leave it up to you whether it was something worth wild,
135 00:23:02,010 --> 00:23:13,020 but I did not see the afternoon unfolding the way it did. Okay, so that way we are aware that I'm not claiming that I didn't claim that insane in advance. And
136 00:23:13,050 --> 00:23:25,110 I'm 100% transparent with you. I did not expect that much of a a cascading in price. So that's okay. I'll get more probably throughout the week and I'll take
137 00:23:25,110 --> 00:23:32,280 my pound of flesh before Friday. I'm sorry. But until I talk to you next time, be safe.