ICT YT - 2022-07-07 - ICT Market Review - July 06 2022
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2022-07-09 07:15
| 1 | 00:00:10,440 --> 00:00:20,730 | ICT: Alright folks, welcome back. Alright, so I'm gonna be doing both mentorship groups, both YouTube and the private mentorship. In this video, I apologize, but |
| 2 | 00:00:20,730 --> 00:00:31,440 | I have a unexpected event come up. So I have to take care of that going into tomorrow. So I have to get ready for that. So I can't obviously do both. So I'll |
| 3 | 00:00:31,440 --> 00:00:40,560 | be away from social media and YouTube tomorrow as well. Everything's fine, it's just, I take care of something that's gonna require my full attention. So I can |
| 4 | 00:00:40,830 --> 00:00:53,250 | be obviously in both places at one time. So on the right hand side, the dollar index daily chart, as I was referring to, in the past week or so we were looking |
| 5 | 00:00:53,250 --> 00:01:02,040 | at the s&p divergence here, you can clearly see that with the Eurodollar. Down here, this is the overlay, slightly higher highs, three Indian patterns on a |
| 6 | 00:01:02,040 --> 00:01:09,600 | daily chart, you will see that again, we go back into the daily chart, so higher highs not being seen with lower lows as you would expect in dollar index inside |
| 7 | 00:01:09,600 --> 00:01:23,910 | of a fair value gap inside of a primary bull trend. And our city here consequent encouragement, midpoint of the imbalance, our target has been reached final |
| 8 | 00:01:23,910 --> 00:01:35,220 | target would be 107 61. We'll see if that is in play for tomorrow. It is Thursday. As a reminder, just be careful, try not to push too hard. And don't |
| 9 | 00:01:35,220 --> 00:01:47,190 | force it. But we'll be looking for that should it hit that one Oh 7.61. We're done for the week. We won't consider anything on Friday. When the hourly chart |
| 10 | 00:01:47,190 --> 00:02:00,120 | you can see the imbalance here at the 106 42 level that's this level here on the Old City. So this level here, we see it trade down into after midnight in New |
| 11 | 00:02:00,120 --> 00:02:11,280 | York. So this level is here. And we have the fair value gap. So it drops down into a fair value gap completely bring us to a discount due to swing. So here's |
| 12 | 00:02:11,280 --> 00:02:21,450 | the opening, we drop down, run sellside out, look at all the candles here. So I'll sides then taken purged and then runs quickly for consequent encroachment |
| 13 | 00:02:21,780 --> 00:02:36,000 | between 107 61 and 106 42. And again, that's the levels of air we've been watching for weeks now. Alright Eurodollar on the left daily chart, here's that |
| 14 | 00:02:36,000 --> 00:02:46,290 | three Indians pattern we've been discussing and looking for lower prices finally had some expansion moving lower, we were looking for the SMT divergence here |
| 15 | 00:02:46,350 --> 00:02:56,220 | again, comparing the lows with dollar with the highs of Euro dollar, higher high higher high higher high, higher lows in dollar that's cracking correlation as |
| 16 | 00:02:56,220 --> 00:03:07,350 | SMT divergence or US DX SMT divergence. So we have heavy distribution inside of fair value got in the form of SEBI breaks, lower attacks the sell side liquidity |
| 17 | 00:03:07,350 --> 00:03:15,390 | we have nice range expansion on the downside which is what we were looking for. Into the our chart you can see again, the imbalance that we were looking at here |
| 18 | 00:03:15,450 --> 00:03:24,870 | nice optimal trade entry shift in market structure, beautiful delivery here, expansion large range candles down below the sell side liquidity at 1.03403. |
| 19 | 00:03:25,170 --> 00:03:34,290 | Again, that's the old low here, relative equal lows, let's go back and refer to that again to zoom out again, you'll see what that level was. And last night I |
| 20 | 00:03:34,290 --> 00:03:43,950 | mentioned we'll have to play by ear at midnight see what we'll get we get to this area here. Run into that and try to rebalance it and then sell off or if it |
| 21 | 00:03:43,950 --> 00:03:53,640 | runs above this and drop down into it for London session. And that could potentially set up a run back into that 103 40 level but as you can see here we |
| 22 | 00:03:53,640 --> 00:04:04,800 | had just a small little shallow run above relative equal highs for bicep liquidity in reaching into consequent encouragement of the SEBI here 50 minute |
| 23 | 00:04:04,800 --> 00:04:14,970 | timeframe on the left hand side we have two fair value gaps overlaid and refined again that's the one that was shown on the hourly chart and the here's one |
| 24 | 00:04:14,970 --> 00:04:23,220 | that's been refined all of this price action back and forth back and forth and we have one single candle here to in this candle time that candles low left a |
| 25 | 00:04:23,220 --> 00:04:31,170 | small little portion of it open between that low and that high Buy Sell liquidity resting above relative equal high see all this or here's retail you're |
| 26 | 00:04:31,230 --> 00:04:41,700 | going to see that as resistance market drops down initially at midnight here we're not interested in that leaves the low relative equal lows rallies up why |
| 27 | 00:04:41,700 --> 00:04:49,350 | is it doing that? It's engineering liquidity here what kind of liquidity sell side liquidity it rounds up to the buy side liquidity completely closes in the |
| 28 | 00:04:49,350 --> 00:05:02,400 | fair value gap here. Judas swing breaks down. attacks the sell side here runs aggressively into the morning session with several lower lows in here, though is |
| 29 | 00:05:02,400 --> 00:05:05,640 | the opening price at New York. |
| 30 | 00:05:06,360 --> 00:05:16,380 | So here's midnight local time, New York. That opening price right there, we're extending out in time. So here is our classic sell day scenario, trades up, |
| 31 | 00:05:16,710 --> 00:05:29,070 | rebalance by side liquidity drops lower. On the five minute chart, you can see it refined here. Break lower here is displacement. We have institutional order |
| 32 | 00:05:29,070 --> 00:05:42,360 | flow entry drill here, not needing all of this to be rebalanced, drops lower, we also have breaker, high, low, higher high, we want the down candle that has the |
| 33 | 00:05:42,360 --> 00:05:51,210 | most body this is not what we're considering. Is this a stop run. So you look through that we're not supplying to man, we go through candles, down closed |
| 34 | 00:05:51,210 --> 00:06:06,510 | candle, take that range extended out in time. That right there is your city and return back to a bearish breaker. Okay, it's that drops lower, nice little fair |
| 35 | 00:06:06,510 --> 00:06:17,820 | value gap and here trades back up into that. And that's a short, also going into the New York session. Really nice to climb into the New York, early morning |
| 36 | 00:06:17,820 --> 00:06:32,520 | hours going into lunchtime for New York. British Pound lower highs, higher highs with the euro. So this is correlated pair s&p divergence, okay correlated pair |
| 37 | 00:06:32,520 --> 00:06:40,830 | s&p divergence is where we're looking at pound versus euro or Australian Dollar versus New Zealand Dollar. They're very, very closely correlated. But if there's |
| 38 | 00:06:40,830 --> 00:06:50,220 | a crack in that correlation, which is what we're showing here, there's my s&p divergence, higher, high, higher high, lower high in cable. And we had sellside |
| 39 | 00:06:50,220 --> 00:07:00,210 | liquidity here as our objective. And you can see we really nice, Lee done a cascading into that level there. Here is this level here. Now I'm looking at |
| 40 | 00:07:00,210 --> 00:07:10,740 | this, I didn't I don't have this actually drawn correctly, I apologize, that should not actually be touching that. So that box should be anchored to here. |
| 41 | 00:07:10,800 --> 00:07:21,390 | And I don't have that correctly done. And you'll understand what I'm referring to if you look at your forex.com feed on trading view, for POUND DOLLAR hourly |
| 42 | 00:07:21,390 --> 00:07:31,470 | chart, if you're looking at that fair value get draw your line from that here or your rectangle anchor from here to here. This chart, at least it looks like it's |
| 43 | 00:07:31,500 --> 00:07:39,600 | touching, it did not touch that that price is actually just a little bit less than that one here. But that would have been one to expect and look for |
| 44 | 00:07:39,600 --> 00:07:51,360 | obviously, it broke lower cell side as we were, we have the fear of a gap here at the old low market runs up into that rebalances it and then attacks the sell |
| 45 | 00:07:51,360 --> 00:08:04,530 | side liquidity resting below that low right there. So we have Faraday get to sell side liquidity really nice little distribution day on POUND DOLLAR. So |
| 46 | 00:08:04,530 --> 00:08:17,910 | here's your framework here. Those levels we'll look at on the 15 minute chart now. Here's that here, hourly imbalance by side liquidity purged and 60 minute |
| 47 | 00:08:17,940 --> 00:08:26,970 | or hourly, fair value got rebalanced here, breaks lower attacks the sell side liquidity there. On a five minute chart you can see during the London Open kill |
| 48 | 00:08:26,970 --> 00:08:36,690 | zone, we rebounds the fair value gap on the 60 minute chart, all the Buy Sell liquidity here is purged, then we have our shift in market structure this low |
| 49 | 00:08:36,690 --> 00:08:47,580 | here, how do we know that it's displacement trades back up into the smaller February gap here trades lower breaks, lower, consolidates and breaks again |
| 50 | 00:08:47,580 --> 00:08:55,980 | going into the New York session attacking the sell side liquidity right there. That's this level here. And that's all the sell side being paired with the buy |
| 51 | 00:08:55,980 --> 00:09:09,840 | side that was taken in as short for smart money there. And obviously we consolidate back into the range between 1934 which is this level here. The old |
| 52 | 00:09:09,840 --> 00:09:21,600 | low and the daily it runs right back up into that mean the s&p 500 daily chart September delivery contract on the left hand side on the right hand side NASDAQ |
| 53 | 00:09:23,310 --> 00:09:31,080 | September delivery contract. The reason why we're trading the September contract is because the contracts expire. Okay, we've prior to the September contract, we |
| 54 | 00:09:31,080 --> 00:09:42,120 | were trading June 2022. That has since expired. So this contract is considered the front month or most active until we get about second week of September then |
| 55 | 00:09:42,120 --> 00:09:51,780 | this contract will expire. And then we'll be trading the December contract of 2022 for both indices. So I see a lot of questions asked in the comment |
| 56 | 00:09:51,780 --> 00:10:00,540 | sections. Why am I looking at this and why is it the September contract when we're not in September yet? You're in Trading |
| 57 | 00:10:01,799 --> 00:10:11,969 | the next month of delivery, or the nearby contract, or the most active when you're trading futures, there is no earlier contract, there is no July contract, |
| 58 | 00:10:11,969 --> 00:10:19,949 | there is no August contract. The next available contract for trading index futures is September. So the contract months for these indices when you're |
| 59 | 00:10:19,949 --> 00:10:31,739 | trading them is March, June, September, December, there's only four per year. Okay? So one contract per quarter. And that's the order in which they expire, |
| 60 | 00:10:31,799 --> 00:10:42,269 | and you roll over to the next contract month, when the contract is the front month when it expires, you go to the next one in that order. Alright, so we're |
| 61 | 00:10:42,269 --> 00:10:51,449 | looking at the daily chart on the left hand side of s&p. We have the city here, all this imbalance, this, again, this is my interest for the remainder of the |
| 62 | 00:10:51,449 --> 00:11:01,229 | week, it may not get up here, folks, it's but that's what I'm looking for. Same thing over here with the NASDAQ a little bit different flavor between the two. |
| 63 | 00:11:01,769 --> 00:11:10,409 | We have the gap here, which we've been monitoring for good grief almost a month now. But we're here notice a difference. We're significantly lower than that. |
| 64 | 00:11:11,309 --> 00:11:23,519 | This here, I use that level here today. And we'll add that in terms of the framework with FOMC notes for two o'clock hour. And then we have this low here |
| 65 | 00:11:23,909 --> 00:11:30,599 | to the high. So there is your fair value gap being framed from that candles low that candles high, that's all that level is there. So when we get into lower |
| 66 | 00:11:30,599 --> 00:11:39,209 | timeframes, that thinner blue is not this. Okay? It's not an order block. It's just the low of the gap. So we're referring back to that level. Again, we're not |
| 67 | 00:11:39,209 --> 00:11:50,669 | supplying to me and we cut through candles, sorry, Sam. Alright, so here is the business. Alright. Notice that we had on s&p, ahead of FOMC. We had unfinished |
| 68 | 00:11:50,669 --> 00:11:58,799 | business here with these relative equal highs, then that of NASDAQ NASDAQ was able to clear these earlier. And I mentioned that last night on the YouTube |
| 69 | 00:11:58,829 --> 00:12:11,009 | videos. Well, we were able to get above the highs relative in terms of this area here in NASDAQ, but we had not made its way to that level for that buyside yet, |
| 70 | 00:12:11,429 --> 00:12:19,469 | ahead of FOMC. And we also had the imbalance over here. So it's an imbalance there in the form of that fair value got. So the low hanging fruit would be this |
| 71 | 00:12:19,469 --> 00:12:28,379 | level here. Okay, so we're going to look for this run here. And then reach into that. I know, this seems like hindsight, for some of you that are not in the |
| 72 | 00:12:28,379 --> 00:12:39,329 | clique, but this is how we roll. Okay, so you're getting kind of like taste of what it's like to be with me. But don't get too comfortable, because this isn't |
| 73 | 00:12:39,329 --> 00:12:53,129 | going to continue, obviously. But again, I just want to remind you folks, this is again, not hindsight. All right, hourly chart, s&p left hand side here is |
| 74 | 00:12:53,129 --> 00:13:07,889 | those relative equal highs. We ran through that on FOMC. And here is that 3040 level. And here is that old, gap low and that thinner blue line I mentioned on |
| 75 | 00:13:07,889 --> 00:13:18,419 | the NASDAQ. So here's a fair value gap. We dropped down into that ahead of FOMC. Early in the day, notice that the entire day was this choppy, aimless, okay, but |
| 76 | 00:13:18,419 --> 00:13:24,209 | I'm going to take you into the chart a little bit deeper and show you what was going on that you couldn't anticipate, again, that it was gonna likely go to the |
| 77 | 00:13:24,209 --> 00:13:38,009 | upside. Same thing over here. So this level here is 3857 and three quarters, that level right there. Again, that's the old relative equal highs. And we'll |
| 78 | 00:13:38,009 --> 00:13:49,259 | see that in the next slide here on a 50 minute time frame. Last down, closed candle prior to this run, we have this is the order block. And the market runs |
| 79 | 00:13:49,259 --> 00:13:57,749 | up initially at two o'clock it opens rallies up gets, everybody thinks it's gonna run here, then they sync it back down into the order block right there. |
| 80 | 00:13:58,589 --> 00:14:07,649 | Same thing with the NASDAQ, it opens, trades higher thing comes back down into the order block does it twice opens trades down once more here, and then they |
| 81 | 00:14:07,649 --> 00:14:19,139 | send it higher. Here's that 3037 Three quarters level that old relative equal high on the daily chart on the s&p that has not been traded to while the NASDAQ |
| 82 | 00:14:19,139 --> 00:14:32,099 | was able to trade above it relative equal highs days before. So we had unfinished business above 3037 and three quarters. Here is the business. All |
| 83 | 00:14:32,099 --> 00:14:41,279 | right. We have two o'clock in the afternoon on FOMC. Here is for those pm session afternoon warriors that just simply want to get in there and dirty their |
| 84 | 00:14:41,279 --> 00:14:50,969 | hands get blood on her gown. And there it is. Here it is. This is the FOMC approach. You have to have a bias obviously what's it reaching for? Obviously we |
| 85 | 00:14:50,969 --> 00:14:57,899 | had unfinished business for SMP. That means by side is going to be the luckily objective that means 3057 or higher |
| 86 | 00:14:59,129 --> 00:15:09,329 | and We have two o'clock is when FOMC comes down. So you want to treat that as the beginning of the day for yourself. Everything prior to that irrelevant, |
| 87 | 00:15:10,019 --> 00:15:18,989 | we're treating it like a new start of a new day, like midnight in New York. So how is that done, we use the opening price at two o'clock extending out in time. |
| 88 | 00:15:19,259 --> 00:15:26,999 | If we're bullish, we want to see something drop down, we want to see a price go lower, that's a due to swing, the market drops, we're not interested in chasing |
| 89 | 00:15:26,999 --> 00:15:36,029 | it here, we want to see it drop down, and it goes into the order block that does this false attempt to go below that low. So we're having a higher high here. |
| 90 | 00:15:36,599 --> 00:15:47,279 | Think about what I just explained to you. s&p had unfinished business. So it's going to hint ahead of time, that that's the one you want to be in because it |
| 91 | 00:15:47,279 --> 00:16:00,149 | has a reason to go higher. NASDAQ has been above its relative equal highs on the hourly chart, for a day or so this SMP market hasn't done that yet. So it has to |
| 92 | 00:16:00,149 --> 00:16:12,659 | catch up. So it has a sympathy play that's unraveling in price, where it needs to catch up to that of the NASDAQ. So buyside is the draw on liquidity 3057 and |
| 93 | 00:16:12,659 --> 00:16:23,789 | three quarters, that's the hourly relative equal high on s&p. So it goes without saying that this one should fail to make a lower low. When NASDAQ made its lower |
| 94 | 00:16:23,789 --> 00:16:32,879 | low when it tripped into its order block. See that. So there's Smart Money accumulating without an indicator, okay? Without supplying the man. Without |
| 95 | 00:16:32,879 --> 00:16:43,589 | anything harmonic, this is Smart Money accumulation written here. That's not like golf. Okay? That's not anything else. Except for understanding the logic |
| 96 | 00:16:43,589 --> 00:16:53,039 | and narrative. When should the bout so they come in two o'clock. Why? Because FOMC minutes are gonna be released in, okay. We have unfinished business and s&p |
| 97 | 00:16:53,069 --> 00:17:00,869 | is going to draw a price higher, NASDAQ will probably move with it in sympathy as well. But we really want to be focusing on the s&p because it needs to go up |
| 98 | 00:17:00,869 --> 00:17:10,649 | to that buyside liquidity there has not been seen and traded to yet, while NASDAQ has been going higher, a little bit more energetic on the upside, because |
| 99 | 00:17:10,649 --> 00:17:21,749 | it has been the relative strength leader. But now, just like it says in the Bible, first one now certainly to be last. This for here is just a stop run, |
| 100 | 00:17:22,139 --> 00:17:35,909 | where this is accumulation signaling to smart money, it's time to buy below the opening price here in the order block here into the fair value gap here. Never |
| 101 | 00:17:35,909 --> 00:17:45,749 | made its way down to a second pass in the order block where it does do so here. And then we have explosive rallies rally up to that 3057 Or three quarters |
| 102 | 00:17:45,749 --> 00:17:54,269 | level, short term swing high then digs into 3874, even what's 3074 even |
| 103 | 00:18:01,589 --> 00:18:14,609 | above 3871, and a half, that imbalance over here on the hourly chart for s&p. Okay. And let's continue on with this carnival like atmosphere. myself caught |
| 104 | 00:18:14,609 --> 00:18:27,029 | up. And last thing on our docket today is gold. As you all know, I've drawn your attention to this area here. Because if we were going to have that continuation |
| 105 | 00:18:27,029 --> 00:18:35,549 | higher on dollar as I was giving you a gun to my head, this is how I do it in the mentorship. Sometimes I don't have a hard bias. But I have to tell my |
| 106 | 00:18:35,549 --> 00:18:44,309 | community, what I believe is going to happen. So it's not a plan a plan B it's not a it's not me picking both sides and marketplace. And then when it unfolds |
| 107 | 00:18:44,309 --> 00:18:53,129 | one direction, then I say see how smart I was. That's what trolls will say about me. You all have had a taste of this gun in my head. I said we were running for |
| 108 | 00:18:53,129 --> 00:19:02,729 | the liquidity resting below here. We've had and then we talked about last night on YouTube. So the bias is what's still reaching for here. So how we use that |
| 109 | 00:19:02,729 --> 00:19:10,709 | for this day here. While the bias from this day's close yesterday. Bias is what still bearish. Why? Because it's hasn't gone down below these relative equal |
| 110 | 00:19:10,709 --> 00:19:18,059 | lows yet. Before we dropped down to lower timeframe, I do believe that this is the next row on liquidity. I'm not certain that we're going to go below this |
| 111 | 00:19:18,059 --> 00:19:28,589 | yet. Okay, just bear that in mind. But I do think that this is a realistic objective to continue into Thursday. Alright, overnight, we had midnight, New |
| 112 | 00:19:28,589 --> 00:19:35,039 | York local time. market drops down, we're not interested in that we wanna see a rally. So here's the opening price, which I don't have on here because I want to |
| 113 | 00:19:35,039 --> 00:19:43,679 | club the chart, but you can have that on yours. opening price we run above that, usually due to swing, it breaks down. Now you can use this one here, short term |
| 114 | 00:19:43,679 --> 00:19:54,989 | swing, low displacement, run up into that level right there. That could be your short or you wait until New York and we have this low broken. Take the fit from |
| 115 | 00:19:54,989 --> 00:20:05,249 | here to here. Why here because prior to this run back up, that's your love. So he's dealing right You're here to hear about 50% There's your fair Vega returns |
| 116 | 00:20:05,249 --> 00:20:14,399 | right back into it again. And like you would expect from good ol YCT concepts it delivers like gangbusters, trades back down into a nice little objective, which |
| 117 | 00:20:14,399 --> 00:20:24,659 | you can see right here, the way I got this target is you want to take the high to the low in on your fib put in negative two, and you'll get that level here, |
| 118 | 00:20:24,689 --> 00:20:34,589 | which is the bodies of the candles here. This low here is by taking the same fib anchoring it from here, down to that low there and you'll get the almost ultra |
| 119 | 00:20:34,589 --> 00:20:42,689 | low the day. That's what that line was here. So you want to pull your fit from here to here. That's going to be a standard deviation of negative three. This |
| 120 | 00:20:42,689 --> 00:20:53,939 | one here is negative two. So two price swings from here to here and in here to here and you'll get those projections down. Okay. And you know we'll see if it |
| 121 | 00:20:53,939 --> 00:21:00,359 | wants a rollover certainly looks like it could it might want to do something a little bit of a pump but I'd prefer not to do that. I'd like to see this stay |
| 122 | 00:21:00,359 --> 00:21:07,709 | heavy and rollover and attack the level down here and then close the week out but that as your objective and that my friends is going to be it I will touch |
| 123 | 00:21:07,709 --> 00:21:11,879 | base with you, Lord willing on Friday, and until then, be safe |