ICT YT - 2022-06-27 - ICT Mentorship 2022 Topical Study - Dealing Ranges
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2022-07-09 07:15
| 1 | 00:00:11,910 --> 00:00:22,050 | ICT: Alright folks, welcome back. So I do apologize, and I appreciate your patience. Because Friday, we had an issue with our internet locally. So I'm not |
| 2 | 00:00:22,050 --> 00:00:37,230 | sure what was going on. But we had an outage in our area today has since been re stored, which I'm very thankful for. But on this review, lecture teaching, I'm |
| 3 | 00:00:37,230 --> 00:00:45,480 | going to cover a couple things. And I want you to understand what it is that we're doing. So that way, we're not taking away the incorrect things and |
| 4 | 00:00:45,480 --> 00:00:56,790 | focusing on the things that are not salient to the discussion. But I'm also looking for you to align yourself as to why I'm doing it index futures trading |
| 5 | 00:00:56,790 --> 00:01:10,680 | specifically, recently, and that I'm not so active in forex. Before we get into it, we're gonna look at the dollar index here. And I want you to see that we've |
| 6 | 00:01:10,680 --> 00:01:24,630 | taken out the short term high in the short term low. So we have a high here that took price higher, broke that trade lower, took that low out there. That is the |
| 7 | 00:01:24,630 --> 00:01:35,940 | topic in teaching of this lecture today. And your notes, I want you to create a section for dealing ranges, okay, whenever you hear me refer to a dealing range, |
| 8 | 00:01:36,900 --> 00:01:52,110 | what I'm looking at is a range, where price has taken out by side, then reversed and taken out sell side by the movement here. Okay? That makes this range from |
| 9 | 00:01:52,110 --> 00:02:03,570 | here to here, a dealing range. Okay, so an ICT dealing range. Whenever you hear me refer to that? Why am I working with a specific range? Why am I looking at |
| 10 | 00:02:03,570 --> 00:02:15,420 | one high in this high? Why am I pulling my foot from this low to that? Hi, all those questions are answered right here. So we have a dealing range from here to |
| 11 | 00:02:15,420 --> 00:02:29,190 | here. So in this range. The question is, how is it useful? Well, prior to this run up here, what has the dollar been doing? It's been bullish, I have been |
| 12 | 00:02:29,190 --> 00:02:38,940 | bullish on dollar, I've been looking for higher prices in dollar. And for the most part, it's been delivering, okay, we've entered a little bit of a sloppy |
| 13 | 00:02:38,940 --> 00:02:47,250 | range in here this past week, and that's fine. So when this low is taken out here in South side's taken, I'm not looking to as a market structure shift where |
| 14 | 00:02:47,280 --> 00:02:56,850 | goes up to here runs to a gap and then go lower, because I'm trading against the primary uptrend. If I do that, that's the same as trying to pick a top. And I |
| 15 | 00:02:56,850 --> 00:03:08,520 | don't try to do that I've lost a lot of money as a young man trying to do that. So I submit myself to the market being likely to follow its higher timeframe |
| 16 | 00:03:08,520 --> 00:03:22,470 | bias trend, momentum direction, okay. So I look at that run below that low here, as accumulation of sell side liquidity for the purpose of buying it by smart |
| 17 | 00:03:22,470 --> 00:03:31,710 | money. So stops here being triggered. That's a flood of sellers coming into the marketplace. And why is that useful? And how's it useful, smart money if they're |
| 18 | 00:03:31,710 --> 00:03:39,630 | bullish, and they're going to align themselves with the higher timeframe trend as well, they're going to buy their sell stops. So I'm gonna look at that run |
| 19 | 00:03:39,630 --> 00:03:48,600 | below here. As a means of buying dollar. I'm not specifically buying dollar, I don't ever trade the dollar, but I use it as a barometer. What does that mean? |
| 20 | 00:03:49,260 --> 00:03:58,710 | I'm using it in my analysis to determine if this is going to go higher than foreign currency should go lower. If this is going to go lower foreign currency |
| 21 | 00:03:58,710 --> 00:04:00,930 | should go higher, vice versa. It's like a teeter totter. |
| 22 | 00:04:02,520 --> 00:04:11,940 | So how this is useful is the dealing range that's been created by running out the short term low here, I expect sellside to be accumulated that way the market |
| 23 | 00:04:11,970 --> 00:04:23,130 | starts to trade higher, what would it trade for, while the dealing range has been defined by this low being taken out in this high here taken out. So we have |
| 24 | 00:04:23,160 --> 00:04:33,930 | buy side here, sell side has been taken. And if it turns higher, once it starts to pull away from this low sell side resides here. And if I'm bullish, because |
| 25 | 00:04:33,930 --> 00:04:40,860 | I'm sticking with the higher timeframe trend, I'm not trying to pick tops, the draw and liquidity is going to be that high. Because that's where the buy side |
| 26 | 00:04:40,860 --> 00:04:49,080 | is. So I'm not going to look at this run up into this range here for a fair value get to sell off on dollar. That's not what I'm doing. I don't look for |
| 27 | 00:04:49,080 --> 00:04:59,730 | that my students know that. So I'm going to be anticipating this range to be taken out. So the smart money buys to sell stops and then sells to the buy stops |
| 28 | 00:04:59,790 --> 00:05:06,480 | there. are traders that want to be short dollar? If they're shorting dollar, they'll put their protective stop loss right above the short term high here. And |
| 29 | 00:05:06,480 --> 00:05:15,510 | that provides what? Buy side liquidity. How's that useful? The smart money that buys to sell stops here will offset to those buy stops above the short term |
| 30 | 00:05:15,510 --> 00:05:25,800 | high. So they're buying low selling high. Who the selling two at a higher price, the bias that's resting above here. That's narrative. Okay. So looking at the |
| 31 | 00:05:25,800 --> 00:05:32,970 | dollar, we didn't do very much last week, we kind of stayed inside the range here. So here's Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday, Monday's range, the |
| 32 | 00:05:32,970 --> 00:05:47,190 | Friday, just the consolidation week, okay. euro dollar. This pair is, in my opinion, very frustrating right now, because it's not trying to move very much |
| 33 | 00:05:47,190 --> 00:05:59,970 | at all. And we've moved back into this range here. And we're just stalling. I don't have a strong conviction, one direction or the other. So if you look at |
| 34 | 00:05:59,970 --> 00:06:12,330 | this market here, is it obvious that it wants to go above these highs or below these lows. Now, if we had a show of hands, there is probably going to be a |
| 35 | 00:06:12,360 --> 00:06:21,660 | large degree of division, some of you're going to be looking for lower prices, some are gonna be looking for higher prices. Now the way ICT me myself, the |
| 36 | 00:06:21,660 --> 00:06:32,760 | analyst defines low probability. So that way the trader can engage in the setup, the analyst inside of me has to make a determination of high probability trade |
| 37 | 00:06:32,760 --> 00:06:44,880 | conditions. So how do I define that? I've already taught it to you. This is for your journal, in case you haven't already taken note, but this high probability |
| 38 | 00:06:44,910 --> 00:06:58,380 | conditions with my concepts and my analysis method, is the algorithm presenting something in price that is so one sided, it's so obvious that it wants to go |
| 39 | 00:06:58,410 --> 00:07:06,840 | higher, or go lower, that it's very difficult for you to make a justification for the opposing side. In other words, if you're bullish, and you think the |
| 40 | 00:07:06,840 --> 00:07:20,370 | price is likely to go higher, does this condition or market present next to no opportunity to present a shorting opportunity? So it's going to be obvious. This |
| 41 | 00:07:20,370 --> 00:07:32,310 | is high probability, it there is a way for you to determine a likelihood of a an opposing setup. That is not my definition of high probability. So what are we |
| 42 | 00:07:32,310 --> 00:07:39,900 | waiting for as traders? What are we being patient with, because I preached that all the time, you're waiting for that one sidedness to the marketplace, and it |
| 43 | 00:07:39,900 --> 00:07:50,280 | might not trade like that for a day or two, or maybe even a week. And you have to prepare yourself to have that patience to wait for the setup to present |
| 44 | 00:07:50,280 --> 00:08:00,210 | itself to you with high probability conditions. Now, how does this relate to Forex? In my apprehension, to engage with it recently, there is no high |
| 45 | 00:08:00,210 --> 00:08:09,120 | probability setup in Euro, it can go either way it can run for the buy side here. Or it could run for the sell side. Is that high probability? Absolutely |
| 46 | 00:08:09,120 --> 00:08:19,380 | not. Mark comes back up in the despair Vega. We ran up into that Why didn't enter up? I don't know. Why didn't go higher. I don't know. |
| 47 | 00:08:21,389 --> 00:08:33,059 | To hear that said, your teacher, your mentor guru with the horseshoe that luck in my analysis is trimming away all of this nonsense. This is chaff. Just |
| 48 | 00:08:33,059 --> 00:08:44,669 | because the markets are printing candles. I'm not trying to predict every single fluctuation in every single market. I want to go where the iron is hot. And I |
| 49 | 00:08:44,669 --> 00:08:53,969 | want to strike it when it's there. Because I'm going to shape a winner out of a market that presents the opportunity. That's high probability. So what I'm |
| 50 | 00:08:53,969 --> 00:09:03,899 | showing you here, notice I'm not taking you into where the mark is gonna go to next. Because I don't know. I don't know that right now. So I'm not in forex. |
| 51 | 00:09:04,559 --> 00:09:12,089 | Does it make sense? Why am I going to gamble just to entertain you? I'm not going to do that. I'm not here to show you that I can get wrong a lot of times |
| 52 | 00:09:12,089 --> 00:09:25,379 | in markets that never would have touched in the first place. See the logic behind that. Here's British Pound. Now pound took out its short term low here. |
| 53 | 00:09:25,379 --> 00:09:35,069 | That's something that the Eurodollar did not do, respectively. So I'm kind of like questioning is that an SMP divergence, correlated pair s&p divergence. Now |
| 54 | 00:09:35,099 --> 00:09:43,919 | here's for your journal correlated s&p divergence is when you are looking at correlated markets like British Pound versus US dollar is closely correlated to |
| 55 | 00:09:43,949 --> 00:09:54,239 | Euro versus dollar. Generally they'll move in sympathy with one another, but In instances like we have here, if I was bullish, for instance, say I was bearish |
| 56 | 00:09:54,239 --> 00:10:05,339 | dollar in bullish foreign currency. If I saw this divergence between this and Low in this low here, making it lower in cable or British Pound versus US Dollar |
| 57 | 00:10:05,339 --> 00:10:17,969 | versus that of going back up to Euro, that low here. And here we have a higher love formed in Euro than that of cable you see that says divergence. So if I was |
| 58 | 00:10:17,969 --> 00:10:29,939 | bearish on dollar that would indicate to me that it's time to be buying euro or buying cable. In this instance, if I was bearish dollar and bullish foreign |
| 59 | 00:10:29,939 --> 00:10:41,279 | currency, which currency would I buy euro or cable, I would buy Euro because Euro failed to make the lower low because in sense of comparing relative lows to |
| 60 | 00:10:41,279 --> 00:10:51,749 | relative lows, Euro has failed to make a lower low. So that would indicate if those conditions were there. And I'm not suggesting that they are folks. We're |
| 61 | 00:10:51,749 --> 00:11:02,699 | just talking hypothetically here. Since cable went lower to take out that low here, that's a stock running event. And Eurodollar is failing to make that lower |
| 62 | 00:11:02,699 --> 00:11:12,209 | low. So it's saying I'm not willing to go down there. And if dollar were bearish, this would indicate this as the relative strength leader. And then we |
| 63 | 00:11:12,269 --> 00:11:22,379 | would expect this currency to rally higher. Now that does not mean that I won't trade cable long. Sometimes there's other factors that are outside the scope of |
| 64 | 00:11:22,379 --> 00:11:30,569 | this, because it's not that I'm trying to keep it from you. It just requires me a lot of teachings that have to help support the reasons why I would say I would |
| 65 | 00:11:30,569 --> 00:11:41,099 | still go long British Pound versus US dollar, even though Euro filament a little low. Some of these things would be the economic counter coming up. Interest |
| 66 | 00:11:41,099 --> 00:11:48,449 | rates, differentials, all of those things, which, again, are outside the scope of this, and I promise I'll touch on those as we go through the rest of this |
| 67 | 00:11:48,449 --> 00:11:58,019 | year. But I don't want you thinking or having the obligation placed on me that I have to explain every single little detail. Because I mentioned something if you |
| 68 | 00:11:58,019 --> 00:12:04,199 | spend time with me, hopefully it's what you're here for. You're not here to just watch one week or a couple of videos and call it quits or think you know it all |
| 69 | 00:12:04,199 --> 00:12:13,109 | because you're not going to do that. But I want to give you a very deep dive into my concepts and my analysis how that aligns itself with the algorithm. |
| 70 | 00:12:16,079 --> 00:12:29,399 | Here's the Australian dollar versus US dollar. You tell me Is it likely to take out the sell side here or the buy side here. Now it's real close to these. So |
| 71 | 00:12:29,399 --> 00:12:41,069 | wouldn't it feel natural to say it should spike down here and take that out? Logically, that's what I think it should end could do. But I could be wrong. |
| 72 | 00:12:41,759 --> 00:12:49,139 | I've been in markets where it's done this before, and then ran away from it. Because this is the logical level that everyone would look to see a breakout |
| 73 | 00:12:49,139 --> 00:12:59,159 | below. I'm not a breakout trader, I look to see price run into these levels. That's my setup. So I'm not looking for a breakout to continuing. I'm looking |
| 74 | 00:12:59,159 --> 00:13:08,879 | for a run below an old low or above an old high and I'm targeting liquidity. I'm not trading patterns. I'm not looking for anything harmonic. I'm not looking for |
| 75 | 00:13:08,879 --> 00:13:15,629 | supply and demand because that doesn't exist unless you're looking at commodity prices, which I talked a little bit about on my twitter space on this past |
| 76 | 00:13:15,629 --> 00:13:16,109 | Saturday. |
| 77 | 00:13:18,720 --> 00:13:25,920 | If you've listened to that, and you found it insightful, give me a comment below. And I'd appreciate that. If it wasn't any help to you. You're welcome to |
| 78 | 00:13:25,920 --> 00:13:39,030 | leave that as well. As long as it's respectful every comments accepted. But I don't have a strong opinion about trading the Aussie dollar right now either. So |
| 79 | 00:13:39,030 --> 00:13:51,930 | I'm not touching it. Here's the dollar versus Canadian dollar. We mentioned how it took this short term high up bumped it started to break lower. And who knows |
| 80 | 00:13:51,930 --> 00:13:59,610 | what it was going to do. And we had a little bit of a retracement on Wednesday and Thursday. And then Friday, we had a washout to me less relative equal highs. |
| 81 | 00:14:00,090 --> 00:14:10,830 | It could have easily swiped those. But it's having a little bit of a heaviness in the marketplace. And I might want to trade down into this gap here. Do I know |
| 82 | 00:14:10,830 --> 00:14:19,470 | which one is going to do right now? No, because I can't frame it with high probability on one side or the other. So am I going to trade this personally? |
| 83 | 00:14:19,530 --> 00:14:34,440 | No. So I have a conundrum. Okay, I'm stuck. If I'm looking at Forex, and I have these shackles of uncertainty, let me and you as my students, even my private |
| 84 | 00:14:34,440 --> 00:14:43,050 | group, they're looking at me like, you know, ICT you know, pull your magic wand out and do some magic here with Forex. That's why I've been very candid with |
| 85 | 00:14:43,050 --> 00:14:53,700 | them and I've been candid with you. I do not feel Forex is high probability at the moment. Will it stay like this? No, it will not Forex is not dead. Okay. I |
| 86 | 00:14:53,700 --> 00:15:02,580 | talked a little bit about that as well in Twitter space on this past Saturday, but I'm not trying to promote you Join Twitter, you can literally pull this up |
| 87 | 00:15:02,760 --> 00:15:11,730 | and not have a Twitter account. So don't think I'm trying to pull people to Twitter, or to follow me, I don't care. I want to follow us on the YouTube |
| 88 | 00:15:11,730 --> 00:15:21,660 | channel. But you're welcome to go on the Saturday rants that I do, you may not be a fan of that. But it's kinda like a motivational thing. It's kind of like to |
| 89 | 00:15:22,170 --> 00:15:30,210 | realign yourself after the previous week of trading. And sometimes I'll just talk about things I endured in my development. And sometimes it's funny to |
| 90 | 00:15:30,210 --> 00:15:39,990 | listen to because they were real. They were real events I had to work through. And other times, it'll be things that I think are noteworthy. And if they delete |
| 91 | 00:15:39,990 --> 00:15:49,230 | my channel over there on Twitter, I could care less. Okay, but this channel here I want to preserve and I'm going to keep a lot of the tinfoil hat discussions |
| 92 | 00:15:49,260 --> 00:16:02,430 | off of it. Here's the gold futures market. Okay. Look at this market for real folks. Does this look high probability do? Is it going higher? Is it going |
| 93 | 00:16:02,430 --> 00:16:15,990 | lower? Your guess is as good as mine. That's why I'm not talking about gold. Think about it. We traded from here to here we've been consolidating gun to my |
| 94 | 00:16:15,990 --> 00:16:27,840 | head, okay, gun to my head. Long term bullishness on dollar, it might resume. That would be pressure on gold. Gold should go lower attack the sell side over |
| 95 | 00:16:27,840 --> 00:16:35,100 | here is a high probability know what I trade it? No, because it can do one of two things |
| 96 | 00:16:36,780 --> 00:16:47,910 | stay consolidated or run up in trade against my expectation and dollar slipped lower. That's against my analysis. That's where I'm okay with being wrong. |
| 97 | 00:16:47,910 --> 00:16:58,500 | Because I'm not taking a trade that would lead to that as a monetary loss. It would be a bruise to my ego, it would be a scratch in my journal where I say, My |
| 98 | 00:16:58,500 --> 00:17:10,770 | expectations were not seen in the delivery price. And this is my observations. I'm not saying I'm so stupid, I mess this up. I'm never gonna get this. This is |
| 99 | 00:17:10,830 --> 00:17:17,640 | too hard for me, why am I struggling so much, this should have been easier, I should have learned it by now. That's all negative self talk. And when you |
| 100 | 00:17:17,670 --> 00:17:26,520 | include that in your posts on social media, or if you include it in your annotations on your chart or in your journal, you are literally poisoning your |
| 101 | 00:17:26,550 --> 00:17:36,840 | developing self. You don't want to do that. You want to reassure yourself positive self talk, that's how you do it, you're tricking your brain to retain |
| 102 | 00:17:36,840 --> 00:17:47,520 | the positive aspects of what has transpired, whether you've taken a monetary loss, or you just missed an opportunity, any of those conditions are going to be |
| 103 | 00:17:47,520 --> 00:17:55,920 | helpful to you. If you use positive self talk, that means telling yourself, you saw it coming beforehand. This is what you look for in the setup and little |
| 104 | 00:17:55,920 --> 00:18:04,950 | happiness is your subconscious will retain that because it's a feel good moment, you're creating an artificial feel good moment in your journal, you're logging |
| 105 | 00:18:04,950 --> 00:18:14,670 | back data in moves. And if you have taken a trade and there was a losing trade, you go into it and look for the positives, because you're gonna get it wrong |
| 106 | 00:18:14,670 --> 00:18:24,780 | sometimes, like I do. And when I was journaling young, I went into the charts and discovered that if I went in, and I recorded, okay, I had this trade |
| 107 | 00:18:24,780 --> 00:18:35,610 | incorrect, but I'm encouraged because my bias was incorrect as a trader, but the method says it was gonna go high, it would go down to a fair value gap or take |
| 108 | 00:18:35,610 --> 00:18:43,140 | us outside liquidity and then rallied up to a specific price level. And I would focus on that. So you're always looking for the silver lining. That's how you |
| 109 | 00:18:43,140 --> 00:18:52,560 | stay positive and you endure drawdown, periods of uncertainty where you have to sit on your hands and do nothing. And that's a very hard lesson to learn. You |
| 110 | 00:18:52,560 --> 00:19:01,110 | need a mentor that has done that and can justify why that is a good thing. Not Well, you got an edge, gotta get there and treated. Losing is part of the game |
| 111 | 00:19:01,140 --> 00:19:11,370 | money man is gonna save you rerun. Get out there and go for it. That's stupid. That's somebody that I guarantee you is not making money that somebody doesn't |
| 112 | 00:19:11,370 --> 00:19:20,160 | want to Rao up the troops. And hopefully it works out in their favor, and they can champion themselves in front of everyone saying, Look, see, we're killing |
| 113 | 00:19:20,160 --> 00:19:34,110 | it. I am not afraid to tell you sit still. Sit on your hands. Wait. That comes with maturity that comes with someone that has endured financial loss to the |
| 114 | 00:19:34,110 --> 00:19:45,600 | degree that probably most of you would throw your guts up. So to avoid all those personal experiences, and financial loss, I teach the way I teach and that |
| 115 | 00:19:45,600 --> 00:19:56,640 | sometimes for most people in the younger age brackets, I'm viewed as a very boring monotone teacher. I'm not going to get out here and bang pots for you. |
| 116 | 00:19:57,390 --> 00:20:03,210 | And get you all worked up and share Lamborghini lifestyle. I'm not going to do do that, because none of that is going to help you these kinds of lessons I'm |
| 117 | 00:20:03,210 --> 00:20:11,460 | showing you here, this is the thing that you need to understand. Looking through the markets as a whole, going through them individually, is there a one |
| 118 | 00:20:11,460 --> 00:20:19,080 | sidedness to all of them. Because if there's a risk on risk off scenario, they should all generally be moving in the same direction or hinting at that. And |
| 119 | 00:20:19,080 --> 00:20:32,550 | we're not seeing that at all. Not at the very moment, we're not. So I feel comfortable being in stock index futures. Crude oil. Now, we've been recently |
| 120 | 00:20:32,580 --> 00:20:45,660 | enduring a lot of issues with crude oil. This, let me take you back to when crude oil do 40 some dollars negative. So we went under zero, the cost of oil |
| 121 | 00:20:45,660 --> 00:20:58,050 | went below zero. And refineries were paying people to come pick up their oil, because it takes time for them to turn those pumps off. During all the work in |
| 122 | 00:20:58,050 --> 00:21:07,260 | my row, we'll call it because I'm not going to put the things in this video that would make it otherwise flagged for things. Just know that all the things we've |
| 123 | 00:21:07,260 --> 00:21:18,600 | been doing for the last two years, led to that collapse in oil, we were bearish, I was looking for bearish prices on oil, I called 15, maybe as low as $13, a |
| 124 | 00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:29,160 | barrel on oil. And that very day, it literally collapsed and went negative, nobody could have expected that no one of no one on this planet would have said |
| 125 | 00:21:29,610 --> 00:21:35,490 | oil was going below zero and to the tune of negative $40. So |
| 126 | 00:21:36,480 --> 00:21:49,560 | you're all asking why's energy prices so high? Well, they lost a lot of money, folks. A lot of money, people weren't able to travel, they weren't able to go |
| 127 | 00:21:49,560 --> 00:22:02,910 | anywhere. So them being them. They're creating this situation, they're making all that money, they lost back and with interest. So you're seeing all of this |
| 128 | 00:22:02,910 --> 00:22:14,100 | pull higher in crude oil and gas prices, because they have taken a huge loss, they took a bath. So now they have to recoup that. How do they do that? Well, |
| 129 | 00:22:14,100 --> 00:22:22,170 | you're looking at the price chart here. So because there's a lot of manipulation in this market, there's a lot of uncertainty, and it's a lot of knee jerk |
| 130 | 00:22:22,170 --> 00:22:39,480 | reactions to anything at all about energy prices, this market is going to flip out and overreact. Is that high probability? No. So that's why I look at this |
| 131 | 00:22:39,480 --> 00:22:56,580 | market. Now, everything I just said, I want you to compare and contrast, how much better how much more plain, more simplistic and clear that this market is |
| 132 | 00:22:56,580 --> 00:23:07,230 | going to be versus what I just showed you in the previous discussions. Here we have the daily chart of the s&p. And obviously you're going to be asking, Okay, |
| 133 | 00:23:07,560 --> 00:23:15,150 | I'm a forex trader, this is getting boring ICT, you're gonna have to start talking about currencies are unsubscribing unsubscribe, and you will find that |
| 134 | 00:23:15,150 --> 00:23:25,290 | you've given yourself the greatest disservice ever. Because what I'm showing you here is the same thing that works in forex, when Forex is moving right? When the |
| 135 | 00:23:25,290 --> 00:23:35,940 | markets are more liquid, why aren't the forex markets liquid ICT? Well, because of the past two years, and the effects of that in the supply chain, and global |
| 136 | 00:23:35,940 --> 00:23:52,200 | commerce and exchange, that's what strangling those currencies plus we have a W A, are you paying attention going on. And you have to literally weigh all those |
| 137 | 00:23:52,200 --> 00:24:02,130 | factors in to your analysis. And I understand, folks, you had these multilevel marketing companies ran by goobers and young kids trying to tell you that you |
| 138 | 00:24:02,130 --> 00:24:10,410 | can get rich by doing stupid stuff. And none of them actually can show you a millionaire student, nobody has a million million dollars that have made money |
| 139 | 00:24:10,410 --> 00:24:17,670 | with their things. None of their teachers are making millions of dollars. None of them have been profitable. And it's easy to get sucked up into that thinking, |
| 140 | 00:24:17,700 --> 00:24:24,390 | Okay, it's just so easy, turn my phone on, put this thing on my chart, put a couple indicators on here. And when it crosses this, and just below that, I'm |
| 141 | 00:24:24,390 --> 00:24:32,640 | going to do this and that. And it's easy. And I can do 15 entries on the same idea. And share that on social media and it's gonna make me feel good because |
| 142 | 00:24:32,640 --> 00:24:48,210 | someone's gonna put a little light behind my post. No, that's the wrong way to do it. A sober minded principle oriented speculator has to weigh out all the |
| 143 | 00:24:48,210 --> 00:25:01,710 | things that I'm laying out for you right now. If it's boring, it's right. Trust me when I tell you that, if it's boring, it is right because Big money is not |
| 144 | 00:25:01,710 --> 00:25:15,270 | going in. In erratic price action, it is not doing that. It's looking for a systematic edge with visibility. How can we go in and discern where risk is? How |
| 145 | 00:25:15,270 --> 00:25:24,090 | can you define risk? In all the markets? I've shown you prior to this one, there's no real way of determining and defining risk. How far is it gonna go |
| 146 | 00:25:24,090 --> 00:25:33,420 | against you if you get it? Who knows? I don't know. So if I can't define the risk, why on earth would I even put my money behind it? I wouldn't. And maybe |
| 147 | 00:25:33,420 --> 00:25:39,930 | you shouldn't, either. But I know some of you want to be hot shots and you want to gamble. You want to be the guy that gets there and be the contrary. And well, |
| 148 | 00:25:39,930 --> 00:25:51,660 | this is not that kind of market folks. And let me say this also, in this lecture, in my 30 years of trading, let me underscore this very plainly and |
| 149 | 00:25:51,660 --> 00:26:06,270 | succinctly. This is the absolute hardest trading has ever been. It's the hardest it's ever been. We have so many things coming at us as speculators that change |
| 150 | 00:26:06,270 --> 00:26:20,040 | or inspire certain sentiment, all the data we're getting is fake. It's manipulated, it's contrived. For instance, look at the inflation number. Do you |
| 151 | 00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:26,610 | feel that inflation number is accurate? When you go to the grocery store right now? How about when you go to the pump and you fill up your gas tanks? Does it |
| 152 | 00:26:26,610 --> 00:26:34,830 | feel like that that data that they're releasing for inflation is in alignment with reality? No way, absolutely not. |
| 153 | 00:26:34,859 --> 00:26:47,729 | But to the average Joe or Jane at feels like, well, they're telling us what it is. And it's probably not as bad as we all think it is. No, it's worse. It's |
| 154 | 00:26:47,729 --> 00:26:55,739 | worse, folks. And it's gonna get worse. So you have to be sober minded with your spending now, and you have to be sober minded about your analysis. And what |
| 155 | 00:26:55,739 --> 00:27:06,239 | you're going to participate in, in this market right here is giving that to you. It's showing you everything that a trader would want to see and find in price |
| 156 | 00:27:06,239 --> 00:27:16,289 | action to support the notion that it is high probability setups. Not going to go into as the reason why that's the case. And then also kind of like, give you the |
| 157 | 00:27:16,289 --> 00:27:24,659 | underlying tone of why I've been able to be accurate with this market publicly showing and sharing everybody, they can see it. I put myself out there, I think |
| 158 | 00:27:24,659 --> 00:27:33,239 | the markets gonna go watch it, do this, watch it do that. And I'll leave it to you to determine whether or not this is useful information. But if you don't |
| 159 | 00:27:33,239 --> 00:27:43,619 | want to look at the markets like this, I promise you this. You are never going to learn what I teach and find consistency in it. Not because it doesn't work |
| 160 | 00:27:43,619 --> 00:27:54,119 | because it works like gangbusters, and is highly precise. But you won't subject yourself to the requirements that are needed to be developing properly, and have |
| 161 | 00:27:54,119 --> 00:28:03,959 | the right mindset. That's why I talk so much because I'm telling you the things that you have to think about while you're developing not get to the point give |
| 162 | 00:28:03,959 --> 00:28:12,239 | me an entry strategy, ICT where's my stop going to be in where I take profits, I got time to do this, you're gonna fail. And I promise you, I would put a million |
| 163 | 00:28:12,239 --> 00:28:24,299 | dollars on that. Because none of my students came through fast tracking it. cherry pick the pieces out of it, and make millions dollars. They've never done |
| 164 | 00:28:24,299 --> 00:28:37,739 | that. And unfortunately, the way the world is today, they want dollar menu habit right now my way, mentorship, expect unrealistic expectations and results. |
| 165 | 00:28:39,959 --> 00:28:52,679 | Doesn't work that way. The market doesn't owe you anything. I don't owe you anything. That doesn't taste good does it. But that's the reality. And you have |
| 166 | 00:28:52,679 --> 00:29:04,019 | to align yourself with, hey, this market is gonna try to kick me in the gut. It's trying to take me out. It's not here for your pleasure. It's not here for |
| 167 | 00:29:04,019 --> 00:29:15,299 | you to go in and just pull dollar bills off of the money tree and have no consequences, no thorns in your finger as you reach for them. The reality is, |
| 168 | 00:29:15,899 --> 00:29:25,379 | this is war. You got to go in, ready to do battle. But you have to know when to pick your shots. You have to know when the flank it. You have to know when to |
| 169 | 00:29:25,379 --> 00:29:36,959 | retreat. That's cutting losses short, allowing your stop loss to be the determination that you were wrong in a trade idea. Retreat is not defeat. And |
| 170 | 00:29:36,959 --> 00:29:46,409 | sometimes standing down, that means don't engage, don't go forward. You're not running backwards. You're just sitting still with those other markets I've made |
| 171 | 00:29:46,439 --> 00:29:57,299 | mention of prior to this market here. You are standing down. Doesn't matter what you see out there in front of you. You're standing down this market where I |
| 172 | 00:29:57,299 --> 00:30:08,609 | actually have been engaging Let's look at the differences between the and what I've shown so far in the other markets. Alright, so we have an old low here, |
| 173 | 00:30:08,729 --> 00:30:17,399 | relative equal highs, the market trades above that then breaks down and takes out the sell side here. What does that make this range here to here. But dealing |
| 174 | 00:30:17,399 --> 00:30:27,299 | range. Now, how's that useful? While we're in a very long protracted consolidation, it wasn't like a short little run from here to here, it was a |
| 175 | 00:30:27,299 --> 00:30:36,569 | long day, this is a daily chart. So it was a lot of time going sideways, essentially. But it took by side and then eventually aimed for sell side. When |
| 176 | 00:30:36,569 --> 00:30:47,159 | that happens on daily chart, and we're entering a seasonal tendency of the first part of the year, I'm looking for sustained price moves. In the second half of |
| 177 | 00:30:47,159 --> 00:30:54,299 | the year, I'm looking for sustained price moves there as well. So apart from the details that lead to that, and I'll talk a little bit about that in topical |
| 178 | 00:30:54,299 --> 00:31:03,809 | studies. But again, I'm trying to keep this conversation germane to the topics and make it useful to you. But I'm going to introduce some topics that we'll |
| 179 | 00:31:03,839 --> 00:31:12,959 | branch off into in the coming weeks and months. So dealing range high dealing range low. Why is that a dealing range? Again, we took both sides by side and |
| 180 | 00:31:12,959 --> 00:31:22,319 | sell side out. What's the bias now bearish. All this range in here, and we're looking for areas that anticipate a run back up into a premium. |
| 181 | 00:31:24,000 --> 00:31:33,510 | Short term high, short term low, it runs up into a premium here sells off, it creates relatively equal highs sell sides taken here. So once it has taken the |
| 182 | 00:31:33,510 --> 00:31:43,200 | sell side here, what's the market likely to do revert back to buy side? Even though it's bearish? Where's the buy side, like a neon sign relative equal |
| 183 | 00:31:43,200 --> 00:31:54,540 | highs, bumps up to it, then does what you have now a new dealing range, you have a dealing range from low because it took out the sell side and the buy side |
| 184 | 00:31:54,540 --> 00:32:03,810 | taken here. So you're dealing ranges from here to here? What is the usefulness in that you're anticipating the market to trade back down to a discount and |
| 185 | 00:32:03,810 --> 00:32:16,800 | eventually to itself side? Discount array below 50% of heared. Here, this fear of a gap is a target. So you're gonna be looking for areas once it sells off |
| 186 | 00:32:16,800 --> 00:32:31,110 | here to fair value gap, break, lower, break, lower target, filled, sell side relative equal lows, tags. So now we have this dealing range from here to here. |
| 187 | 00:32:31,140 --> 00:32:41,460 | Why is that a dealing range, we've taken by side here, and cell sides been taken here. So from here to here, you start doing analysis inside of that range. Look |
| 188 | 00:32:41,460 --> 00:32:50,640 | at all the back and forth in here. And then we get to this level here and it's more energetic. When I see that I identify this as the delivery tie the here and |
| 189 | 00:32:50,640 --> 00:32:59,880 | here. But I will refine it down to the most energetic price swing inside of the dealing range. So I'm going to use this range here from high to low. How's that |
| 190 | 00:32:59,880 --> 00:33:11,730 | useful? From here to here, I'm gonna be looking for a equilibrium price point or premium to go short. Because the bias is what bearish? I publicly made that |
| 191 | 00:33:11,730 --> 00:33:25,710 | known even on YouTube, I said we're entering a seasonal tendency here, where we go into May where it's bearish, did it deliver? Of course it did. Now, this gap |
| 192 | 00:33:25,710 --> 00:33:35,340 | here, we see a trade up into here, sells off, comes up until here fails to go into it there. But look at all these opportunities where it could have filled in |
| 193 | 00:33:35,340 --> 00:33:45,990 | that gap. But it didn't. Broke lower. That indicates to me that this is a breakaway gap. I will talk about gaps in its own topical study. But for now, |
| 194 | 00:33:46,260 --> 00:33:55,800 | this is a breakaway gap, meaning it's going to most likely stay heavy and run where in our bias What's that direction lower. So we have sellside below here |
| 195 | 00:33:55,800 --> 00:34:05,010 | now. So we expect marks price to trade lower below that it does so and then keeps on trading lower increases short term low here, rallies back up into a gap |
| 196 | 00:34:06,060 --> 00:34:19,620 | drops down once more. Take sell side. So now by size where it's likely to revert back to and from this height that low. That's our focal point for our study. So |
| 197 | 00:34:19,620 --> 00:34:31,410 | inside this range, I want you to think about what you see. study this, pause the video, make notes of it. And then watch the rest of the video. If you do not |
| 198 | 00:34:31,410 --> 00:34:40,110 | pause the video folks. I know some of you like to reply back. I'm not going to pause the video. This is that kind of lesson where you do not get the benefit. |
| 199 | 00:34:41,280 --> 00:34:49,890 | Except the fact that this is a long video except it because it's good stuff. It's the stuff that literally makes money. Okay, this is the stuff that helps |
| 200 | 00:34:49,890 --> 00:35:00,480 | you not lose so much money. This is how you find the setups that I'm teaching you to look for. But if you don't do these parts, these interactive studies And |
| 201 | 00:35:00,480 --> 00:35:07,920 | don't pause the video. You've cheated yourself. And then you're going to complain in the comments or in other places around the internet and saying, ICT |
| 202 | 00:35:07,920 --> 00:35:19,140 | stuff so convoluted. It's complicated. It's not complicated. You're just not doing what's required. So who's failing? Here? You are, if you don't play, pause |
| 203 | 00:35:19,140 --> 00:35:33,360 | the video. Alright, so I have the chart kind of aligned so that we can focus on range here. So inside that range, again, from here to here. |
| 204 | 00:35:34,650 --> 00:35:45,840 | We have a Buy Sell liquidity pool right there. A trade trades up and purges by side. Why is that likely to occur? Because we're bearish, we're going into a |
| 205 | 00:35:45,840 --> 00:35:54,810 | seasonal tendency where the market is likely to trade lower. So anytime it runs back above by side liquidity, it's likely to sell off. Once it accumulates those |
| 206 | 00:35:54,810 --> 00:36:05,220 | buy orders. It's going to target what the sell side below that low here. And it does. So here so sell side is now purge. So this is an area where if you're a |
| 207 | 00:36:05,220 --> 00:36:12,060 | swing trader, and you don't want to be dangerous, because a lot of folks are like, Hey, man, you know, I can see that intraday trading is amazing. It's |
| 208 | 00:36:12,060 --> 00:36:19,470 | awesome. And you and your students are able to do a lot of things that are highly precise, I just can't do it, Michael, I can't, I don't have the time, I |
| 209 | 00:36:19,470 --> 00:36:28,680 | don't have the lifestyle. My requirements at my job, my business, I'm in school, you know, it just can't do it. Give me something I can trade with on a higher |
| 210 | 00:36:28,680 --> 00:36:38,880 | timeframe daily chart. This is it houses any different from what I teach in the lower timeframe, it's simply changing the time interval. Everything I'm teaching |
| 211 | 00:36:38,880 --> 00:36:47,850 | you is fractal, the algorithm runs across all the timeframes. All of them, it starts at a higher timeframe runs its way down through the timeframes. And it |
| 212 | 00:36:47,850 --> 00:37:00,150 | refers to all these locations. The algorithm is highly complex. But the concepts of engaging with it is not complex. You have to be specific and oriented to the |
| 213 | 00:37:00,150 --> 00:37:10,350 | high level of detail to navigate each one of these timeframes and put things in their proper place and context. So in short, if we're bearish, I'd like to look |
| 214 | 00:37:10,350 --> 00:37:19,920 | for a short term high taken out and accumulate short positions who's accumulating short positions above old highs, smart money. They held price |
| 215 | 00:37:19,920 --> 00:37:33,600 | there. Why? Because they were allowing traders to engage this as what a bull flag up retail sees that, oh, look at this doji down here, it ran up support is |
| 216 | 00:37:33,600 --> 00:37:43,260 | now being found here because that was resistance. And that is now what a continuation of a buy side run higher with a bull flag. It's going to run for |
| 217 | 00:37:43,260 --> 00:37:56,790 | this area here because that's resistance. And the opposite took place. We were bearish here. The market trades lower attacks, the sell side runs in spends time |
| 218 | 00:37:56,790 --> 00:38:04,350 | down here and then we have Friday's price movement. So let's discuss liquidity a little bit deeper. Okay, this is one of those lessons where you're gonna be |
| 219 | 00:38:04,350 --> 00:38:20,790 | like, Man, this makes a lot of sense. And you can't find it in books. Okay, today's date. Think about Now today's date in June 2022. I'm teaching this for |
| 220 | 00:38:20,790 --> 00:38:29,550 | the first time. Even my paid mentorship group doesn't know this lesson. So if anybody out there takes this information and repackages it, you know it's came |
| 221 | 00:38:29,550 --> 00:38:37,530 | after me. This is what the algorithm does. Okay? I want you to think like this because this is what the algorithm when it runs certain macros macros are short |
| 222 | 00:38:37,530 --> 00:38:54,600 | list of orders of instruction. do this do that. Okay. The if then for that, that logic behind how the price has been designed, delivered, and booked, it is not |
| 223 | 00:38:54,600 --> 00:39:05,910 | buying selling pressure. It is not your pattern. Nothing harmonic. No crossing over of moving averages, no oversold overbought indicators, none of that stuff. |
| 224 | 00:39:06,870 --> 00:39:19,140 | Not with waves, not Elliot waves, none of that stuff Wycoff none of it has anything to do with how prices booking and how it's delivered. What I'm about to |
| 225 | 00:39:19,140 --> 00:39:31,110 | show you, this is it. We have now a dealing range. This low was taken out here. This high was taken out here. So then we have this high down to that low. How is |
| 226 | 00:39:31,110 --> 00:39:44,010 | that useful? Well, if we strip this away, I want you to think about the simplest of things that retail traders use. And I started this way, same way in 1992. |
| 227 | 00:39:44,010 --> 00:39:52,650 | Folks, the same procedure of looking for classic support and resistance because they want to sell you on the easiest thing going in because that way you'll put |
| 228 | 00:39:52,650 --> 00:39:59,670 | money in an account thinking that's going to work and then you are now fleeced, they don't care if you stay in the business long enough the statistics already |
| 229 | 00:39:59,670 --> 00:40:08,340 | state Most people blow their account the first 30 days, let alone majority of them by 90 days. So they want you to get in there feeling like you can do it |
| 230 | 00:40:08,340 --> 00:40:16,770 | real easy. It's simple. They make these stupid little books, stupid little courses. And they trick you, they rookie in the thinking that, hey, all it has |
| 231 | 00:40:16,770 --> 00:40:23,160 | to do is go down to an old level where it bounced before, it's probably gonna go up, or it's gonna go up to a level where it bounced down before, it's probably |
| 232 | 00:40:23,160 --> 00:40:31,020 | gonna go down once it goes there again, because hey, history repeats itself, right? Yes, the history does repeat. And the only aspect of that is true is that |
| 233 | 00:40:31,050 --> 00:40:33,630 | losing traders follow that logic. |
| 234 | 00:40:35,550 --> 00:40:49,380 | So we're looking inside this range here. Okay, this is our specific dealing range. What do you see? Before I go further, wait a minute, ICT, you just said |
| 235 | 00:40:49,380 --> 00:41:02,850 | that's a dealing range, right? These are relatively equal highs. It went above into the fair value gap with this here. And we never were able to go higher. So |
| 236 | 00:41:02,850 --> 00:41:11,430 | I'm looking at that as that's the cap on the marketplace. And it's likely going to be a breakaway gap. That means it doesn't fill right away until it fulfills |
| 237 | 00:41:11,430 --> 00:41:23,430 | lower level objectives on price down here. So what do you see in here? Pause the video. When you're ready to continue unpause it. |
| 238 | 00:41:29,790 --> 00:41:38,970 | Alright, so we have this high to that low. Why am I picking this high, because it has the most energetic price run away from it, that's the most recent one |
| 239 | 00:41:38,970 --> 00:41:47,400 | that has that energy going lower the delivery of the candles moving away from it quickly. That's what I'm really getting at. So I'm framing it with the logic |
| 240 | 00:41:47,400 --> 00:41:55,770 | that this is likely to stay open, not rebounds. And the markets going to drive lower. So our range from here to here. That's what I'm measuring, and |
| 241 | 00:41:55,770 --> 00:42:08,370 | equilibriums here. So above that level, this level here, what what are we looking for, or we're looking for buy side. But classic Support Resistance idea |
| 242 | 00:42:08,370 --> 00:42:20,970 | is this. We taken out this low, relatively equal lows. Okay. This break below it here is shallow, and it's short lived, and then we broke down aggressively |
| 243 | 00:42:20,970 --> 00:42:27,120 | through it. So classic Support Resistance traders are going to do what we're going to be thinking about that low once they broke through here more |
| 244 | 00:42:27,120 --> 00:42:36,210 | meaningfully, they're going to assume that that was support broken now turn what resistance, right? So so they would expect price to trade up into that level |
| 245 | 00:42:36,210 --> 00:42:45,330 | right here, and then trade down from there. Not understanding any other logic as to why it would do this at all. That's narrative. That's the reason why retail |
| 246 | 00:42:45,330 --> 00:42:53,460 | traders suck. Because they just simply look for Support Resistance, or they look for patterns for pattern sake, and they're Fooled By Randomness, the algorithm |
| 247 | 00:42:53,460 --> 00:43:05,580 | is not random. So I teach you how to look at a range and define it in the scope of premium to discount equilibrium is here. And if we're bearish we need the |
| 248 | 00:43:05,580 --> 00:43:23,040 | price get to equal around or preferably higher than to go short in this shaded area here Why did it not just simply trade back to that low and go lower? Why |
| 249 | 00:43:23,040 --> 00:43:34,920 | didn't didn't do that I think that's our last up close candle right before the end Jake move lower inside the context that this is likely a fair value gap that |
| 250 | 00:43:34,920 --> 00:43:44,490 | is going to stay open. Why because it had no ability to get up into a close it at all. So that changes the fair value gap to what a breakaway gap. Breakaway |
| 251 | 00:43:44,490 --> 00:43:53,340 | gaps remain open until lower level objectives are fulfilled and delivered and booked. In other words, it goes lower to a specific price level and discount |
| 252 | 00:43:53,850 --> 00:44:00,150 | then at a later time it might come back up to here but it could be an undetermined amount of time I don't know when they'll come back to fill in a |
| 253 | 00:44:00,150 --> 00:44:09,120 | breakaway gap and if it's bullish market everything I just said just reverse it this last closed candle prior to the move lower and taking out that dealing |
| 254 | 00:44:09,120 --> 00:44:25,410 | range low that is my ICT bearish order block trades lower comes back up doesn't really quite get back to that old low sells off again. Then it comes back ramrod |
| 255 | 00:44:25,440 --> 00:44:35,730 | this low here goes above it and then consolidates so anyone that would have expected this little bit of fluctuation through this would have warm out these |
| 256 | 00:44:35,730 --> 00:44:46,680 | are days. These are days of trading s&p shorts are going to be scared. That's probably gonna go higher. Why? Because they see a bull flag run up consolidation |
| 257 | 00:44:46,710 --> 00:44:58,410 | and they expect it to go higher. Where bearish we're in a premium market and it's going into a bearish order block. Now price is likely to drop lower and |
| 258 | 00:44:58,410 --> 00:45:07,950 | repricing and target what Oh, what's you're going to target? If this is your your trade? What's it targeting? Well, think about what I taught on this YouTube |
| 259 | 00:45:07,950 --> 00:45:22,260 | channel flagship pattern, the optimal trade entry from high to low 79% 62% retracement levels, that's here. That's my optimal trade entry. So you can use |
| 260 | 00:45:22,620 --> 00:45:31,080 | targeting the approaches where you put the fib on the bodies here, and here to lowest of the open or close and highest left, open or close, and your |
| 261 | 00:45:31,080 --> 00:45:42,720 | projections down with the red in here. And I'll leave that for you for to study and do it on your own. But we have a fair value got this left open, bearish |
| 262 | 00:45:42,720 --> 00:45:51,150 | order block, dealing range has been broken to the downside, the only thing we've done is retraced back into a short term premium. And retail traders are gonna |
| 263 | 00:45:51,150 --> 00:46:02,580 | see a bull flag, we're looking at it to go lower, what's gonna go lower four. Before we get into that, we have a short term load, it's taken here. So we had |
| 264 | 00:46:02,580 --> 00:46:11,250 | sellside here and it starts to rally back up, what's it reaching for next, it's going to revert back to buyside. That's this here. That's why it's not going to |
| 265 | 00:46:11,250 --> 00:46:22,410 | go to simply that level and go lower, it's going to go deeper than that clear off all the buy side liquidity, so that way it can absorb that buying orders and |
| 266 | 00:46:22,410 --> 00:46:28,830 | translate that to a short position for smart money. So Counterparty is the buy side being attacked here. |
| 267 | 00:46:30,540 --> 00:46:43,290 | So shorts, in the smart money camp can then target that low down here. So we have buy side taken here, the sell side was taken here. So now the sell side |
| 268 | 00:46:43,290 --> 00:46:54,630 | changes to here. Because dealing range is now defined by this low in this Hi, because boss I was taken on this high sell. So I was taken on this low here. So |
| 269 | 00:46:54,630 --> 00:47:05,970 | we have a dealing range here, how we find that useful. We're bearish. So even though this is a fair value gap close to around the equilibrium between this low |
| 270 | 00:47:05,970 --> 00:47:21,990 | and this high, that simply would just be a partial, and we hold for what sellside to be attacked. But look closer in here. What do you see? Let's zoom |
| 271 | 00:47:21,990 --> 00:47:34,680 | in. So here is that area here. And in inside this own area of shaded this, taking your attention to the short term low here. So we have a short term low |
| 272 | 00:47:34,680 --> 00:47:43,770 | here, and then it gets taken out. And then we have this low here and it starts to rally up. Look close, do you see that this is a swing low. Again, these are |
| 273 | 00:47:43,770 --> 00:47:55,380 | daily candles, they're not lower intraday charts, we have a low that takes out, sells out here, runs down creates that low, one more smaller, attempt to go |
| 274 | 00:47:55,380 --> 00:48:05,610 | lower than this day it does, then the following day, we open trade down and trade back up. This is a swing low on a daily chart after we've taken our sell |
| 275 | 00:48:05,610 --> 00:48:15,420 | side below here. And we have a short term sell side liquidity pool here, which it runs down into, and then creates a swing low. So we're in a discount inside |
| 276 | 00:48:15,420 --> 00:48:30,390 | of a discount. Think about that. Now, if cell sites been taken here, and cell sites been taken here, what's it going to revert back to? By site? Where's that |
| 277 | 00:48:31,170 --> 00:48:45,360 | swing high on a daily is here. So if it's gonna go here, and run to that level, by psi is simply not just that, at that level, what's above that? Bingo, or gap. |
| 278 | 00:48:46,080 --> 00:48:56,850 | We've been talking about that gap for a couple of weeks now. The easy low hanging fruit objective 30 ad I gave that on Twitter, and I'll talk about that |
| 279 | 00:48:56,850 --> 00:49:08,580 | in a couple minutes. But notice how we had sellside taken here. And then the market reverts back to by side and to an imbalance that gap. Large range day |
| 280 | 00:49:08,610 --> 00:49:17,910 | well how did we know? Or how could we have known that Friday was gonna be a large range date with an up movement. Let's dig into that now. All right, so we |
| 281 | 00:49:17,910 --> 00:49:28,500 | finally made our way down into the hourly chart for s&p. Here's our gap from daily chart that's noted here, and here's the old sell side liquidity pool. And |
| 282 | 00:49:28,500 --> 00:49:36,090 | we dug down into that and I'm gonna add some day dividers here so that we can get a little bit context I want you to look at the profile of the week, okay. |
| 283 | 00:49:36,120 --> 00:49:46,290 | Now when I say profile that is not volume profile, okay. I do not use volume profile. I do not use footprint I do not use depth of market they are all |
| 284 | 00:49:46,650 --> 00:49:57,930 | gimmicks and I know that's gonna upset some of your followers that use that stuff. Okay, I promise you. The markets not moving and booking based on those |
| 285 | 00:49:57,930 --> 00:50:06,330 | interpretation. It's simply not okay. Uh, what I'm about to show you, this is this is it this is what makes the market do what it does. Okay? This is how |
| 286 | 00:50:06,360 --> 00:50:12,600 | price books, I'll leave it up to you to wrestle with it. But I'm the one making money with these trades and you're able to you're putting things on your charts, |
| 287 | 00:50:12,630 --> 00:50:21,180 | looking at those things in that price action. You're not even relating to how the market is going to deliver on a weekly profile. Weekly profiles are a |
| 288 | 00:50:22,170 --> 00:50:29,550 | template. Okay, how should price deliver? I'm going to walk you through this one here and how I was able to tell you before the fact on Friday that we would see |
| 289 | 00:50:29,550 --> 00:50:40,350 | 30 add. So on Monday, we opened from all this nastiness here on the previous week. The market starts right away on Monday, just starting to go higher |
| 290 | 00:50:40,380 --> 00:50:51,210 | repricing repricing repricing going higher. No one can go short, no one go long, because it's just constantly just going higher. If you fight that you did, you |
| 291 | 00:50:51,210 --> 00:51:02,250 | gotta wait for some kind of displacement. When does that occur? On Tuesday, we have a little bit of a movement here and then breaks down. Then sales is taken. |
| 292 | 00:51:02,400 --> 00:51:14,370 | And think about what I showed you on that daily chart. We now have a swing low. So on Thursday, we can anticipate the market doing what? Coming back down to a |
| 293 | 00:51:14,370 --> 00:51:27,210 | discount. rallying up and right about here. So I said weekly objective on Twitter is 30 Add. Now why did I pick that I'll tell you in a moment. But |
| 294 | 00:51:27,210 --> 00:51:31,740 | Friday, notice what we have here, the markets already moved above all the consolidation here, |
| 295 | 00:51:32,850 --> 00:51:43,440 | it's not likely to do what have a sharp movement lower, it's not going to take sell side out because it's already done. So here in the consolidation, it's |
| 296 | 00:51:43,440 --> 00:51:52,050 | already worked into this, we have a gap here twice with a sell stop run, they're taken out here, digging deeper into this imbalance, leaving the bottom portion |
| 297 | 00:51:52,050 --> 00:52:03,450 | of that imbalance open making it what a breakaway gap. So it's indicating that it's not likely to have retracements of any magnitude that would see this |
| 298 | 00:52:03,450 --> 00:52:13,770 | revisited again. So we had this level taken out here retraces back down into a short term discount from low to high, fair value get digs into this here. And |
| 299 | 00:52:13,770 --> 00:52:26,340 | once more on Thursday, it rallies comes back down in retraces and this is where I'll talk about what I was wrong about on Thursday, but right about the second |
| 300 | 00:52:26,340 --> 00:52:34,230 | part of the day. But Friday, we just started consolidating had a little bit of movement on a lower timeframe in London, which I'll show you. And then off to |
| 301 | 00:52:34,230 --> 00:52:46,680 | the races because the market only had Friday to fulfill a run into that gap. Everybody knew about this gap. Nobody knew when I was gonna hit it until around |
| 302 | 00:52:46,680 --> 00:52:59,070 | Thursday. And that's kind of like what I was hinting at on Thursday's trading. So on Thursday, I was looking for a run into this level here. And initially, I |
| 303 | 00:52:59,070 --> 00:53:09,660 | was wrong, took a trade and got stopped out plus two points. And while it wasn't a loss, I was incorrect about it running to here. But what I wasn't expecting |
| 304 | 00:53:09,660 --> 00:53:20,670 | wasn't I mentioned this on Twitter, I was looking for a run up into here and and trade back down in and I think I did this discussion on the video on this |
| 305 | 00:53:20,670 --> 00:53:27,570 | YouTube channel also, prior to this video, so I don't know what date that was or what the title was. But just take my word for it. I covered this and talk about |
| 306 | 00:53:27,570 --> 00:53:38,430 | what I was looking for and why. But I wanted to see this level taken out here and then drop down into that to be a long in and look for higher prices. It did |
| 307 | 00:53:38,430 --> 00:53:46,410 | that. But it didn't give me the run first here then drop down because I wanted to see this high taken out. I was gonna go short there after long so I was |
| 308 | 00:53:46,410 --> 00:53:56,190 | longing, shorting reversing it writing it down here, I was gonna go longer and then hold for 30 Add. That was my plan for the week. It's the the video I wanted |
| 309 | 00:53:56,190 --> 00:54:02,850 | to talk about. Like right now, that was what I wanted to cover on Friday as a review saying this is what I did and how I did it and why I did it. But it |
| 310 | 00:54:02,850 --> 00:54:14,460 | denied me that run here. That's fine. This level here, I got in sync with the marketplace, made some cash. And then on Friday did it again as well. This |
| 311 | 00:54:14,550 --> 00:54:24,000 | imbalance right there. That's what I used to justify the run up into 3850. And there's two setups that were made available if you were looking forward to and |
| 312 | 00:54:24,000 --> 00:54:41,310 | we'll cover that now. 38 ad, this was the tweet. You can see the time on the 23rd. So right in here right about in there and the market consolidated. So |
| 313 | 00:54:41,340 --> 00:54:49,800 | because it's consolidating, I don't expect it to drop down because everybody wants it to go oversold. They want to see some kind of harmonic pattern, a |
| 314 | 00:54:49,800 --> 00:55:02,460 | Gartley a bullish you know, divergence in some indicators something to that effect when the markets this close to the gap For some premium array, and you |
| 315 | 00:55:02,460 --> 00:55:10,590 | only have that day before the week closes, when everybody with any insight would know that this is where it's draw drawing back up into because it's a gap. It's |
| 316 | 00:55:10,590 --> 00:55:20,310 | a real gap. Actual gaps have a tendency of filling in. And it's an obvious target. So I know some of you hardliners in here that are very critical of me. |
| 317 | 00:55:20,550 --> 00:55:29,490 | Oh, this is everybody does this. Everybody does that. Okay, well post your trade post that you knew about it beforehand, you outline that beforehand, and you |
| 318 | 00:55:29,520 --> 00:55:39,120 | actually traded it because I already done that. Alright, we're going to drop down into a 15 minute timeframe. You can see the fair value gap here. We dropped |
| 319 | 00:55:39,120 --> 00:55:52,920 | down into it in London, consolidated into another run into that fair pay gap in London. And then aggressive run rate at the nine o'clock hour market was not |
| 320 | 00:55:52,920 --> 00:56:02,280 | going to give anybody an opportunity to see a deeper retracement. And inside this run, I'll show you what it looked like. Also, but this is the low hanging |
| 321 | 00:56:02,280 --> 00:56:11,430 | fruit objective. This is what I tweeted, this is why I posted on Twitter the day before, say we would look for 38 ad why is that low hanging fruit? Low hanging |
| 322 | 00:56:11,430 --> 00:56:19,440 | fruit is the easy objective is how I teach my students now, obviously, the gap being closed entirely would be up here. Well, it may not have done that on |
| 323 | 00:56:19,440 --> 00:56:28,800 | Friday, when we had just Friday to get up to this level, it may have just fell short of it. So the low end of the fair value gap is down here. So what's the |
| 324 | 00:56:28,800 --> 00:56:32,100 | nice around New 10 level into the gap the |
| 325 | 00:56:32,100 --> 00:56:41,730 | first 138 ad. That's why I elected to use 30. Okay, so that we know, it wasn't so some random number. I told you the logic here as to how I used it and |
| 326 | 00:56:42,210 --> 00:56:57,240 | determined right away into the one minute chart, you can see at the New York session at 930. Equities opening, we see a run aggressively here. Fair Vega, it |
| 327 | 00:56:57,240 --> 00:57:07,920 | drops down into it, buying opportunity if you were trading with the New York 930 opening. And the target that gap the shaded area up here. You can be a buyer |
| 328 | 00:57:07,920 --> 00:57:18,930 | here, the market rallies up creates another fair value gap there again, thinking about that weekly profile. Don't expect it to retrace don't expect it to have |
| 329 | 00:57:18,930 --> 00:57:27,990 | any kind of movement lower. It's in a hurry, folks, it's been stagnant most of the week, waiting for price to show a willingness to want to go higher. Once it |
| 330 | 00:57:27,990 --> 00:57:37,710 | showed that it wasn't coming back to old resistance broken turned support. Think about what I showed on an hourly chart, rewind the video back to the hourly, you |
| 331 | 00:57:37,710 --> 00:57:48,000 | can see how the market did not once it broke above, it did not come back down to what logical support level we seen with retail seeing old highs broken. Let's |
| 332 | 00:57:48,000 --> 00:57:55,380 | wait for it to come back and touch it again. If that doesn't work, folks, it's not when you have time crunch like it is here. Friday was the day of delivery |
| 333 | 00:57:56,610 --> 00:58:06,030 | Thursday, in the evening, one than another 11 in my local time, Eastern Time in the United States. I said 30 is the the next drawn. That's my weekly objective, |
| 334 | 00:58:06,510 --> 00:58:17,820 | making it public that way, you know, there it is. And here's where it went to. Now, you have obviously a setup here. And you have a setup here. No retracements |
| 335 | 00:58:18,510 --> 00:58:30,420 | no funny money, just straight to the draw of that daily gap. So what's the benefit of knowing what the weekly profile is going to be? Knowing where the |
| 336 | 00:58:30,420 --> 00:58:44,490 | draw on liquidity is? Where is it likely to go? Now, it's not my goal here to devalue my private mentorship because they were told this beforehand. Before the |
| 337 | 00:58:44,490 --> 00:58:56,550 | week was going on, we were looking for that. Okay. That's the only distinction that separates this public mentorship versus those individuals that have joined |
| 338 | 00:58:56,550 --> 00:59:05,100 | in the end, you can't join folks, but And please don't get upset, because I'm actually teaching you how to do these things. So you don't need me to do that. |
| 339 | 00:59:05,100 --> 00:59:13,020 | But that mentorship was there and made available to people that needed that holding of a hand. This is what I think you should do next, then a new study |
| 340 | 00:59:13,020 --> 00:59:20,610 | with that. And that logic here. I'm going to talk about what has already happened. The comments section is open. My students are welcome to come here and |
| 341 | 00:59:20,610 --> 00:59:31,650 | post down here say I was a liar. If I didn't say this is where the Mark was gonna go. You were told the very night before, but they know days before. Okay, |
| 342 | 00:59:31,650 --> 00:59:43,260 | so it's not a Oh, it's going into the gap. And I'm lucky here. We knew about it beforehand. But the logic that I use to tell that community I'm teaching that |
| 343 | 00:59:43,260 --> 00:59:51,600 | here publicly as a mentorship. This is this is the understanding. It's not going to fluctuate. It's not going to be willy nilly wishy washy. It's going to be |
| 344 | 00:59:51,600 --> 01:00:01,410 | straight to the point and the point requires a lot of explanation. You should want that if you're satisfied with it. This is what it looks like you buy here, |
| 345 | 01:00:01,410 --> 01:00:10,530 | sell here, stop here, there's, you're never gonna find consistency. But that because what makes that setup high probability. That's what's lacking. Look |
| 346 | 01:00:10,530 --> 01:00:21,600 | around on YouTube look around in every teaching circuit. Everybody wants to do the flash in a pan cliffnotes version of what I teach. And that's why their |
| 347 | 01:00:21,600 --> 01:00:31,980 | students suck. Because they have no idea what's going on. Unless they hear me talk about it in my personal private group, then they go and they make their |
| 348 | 01:00:31,980 --> 01:00:38,940 | little videos and make their little courses and they make it a little commentaries, but it's my stuff that they're saying. So what I have done is |
| 349 | 01:00:38,970 --> 01:00:53,550 | taken that away and laid it out here publicly. And you'll start seeing who's been copying who. So granted, Friday was a, you know, is a blistering run hire. |
| 350 | 01:00:55,770 --> 01:01:05,490 | Me, most of you probably didn't participate in it. But I did talk about this very approach to engaging a fair value gap when the market does not do a drop |
| 351 | 01:01:05,490 --> 01:01:12,120 | down when it's bullish, or a Judas swing and take out sell stops, to sometimes it's going to create these opportunities. How could you know it was going to do |
| 352 | 01:01:12,120 --> 01:01:21,750 | this, I told you that in this lecture, because of the weekly profile, that gap that was looming above, on the daily chart, which is shaded here, the fact that |
| 353 | 01:01:21,750 --> 01:01:23,160 | we only had Friday to get to it. |
| 354 | 01:01:24,720 --> 01:01:33,300 | And the market was just basically saying, we're not going lower, we're not going to go any lower, and it kept ticking out by side, but not drawing down and |
| 355 | 01:01:33,300 --> 01:01:43,710 | completely breaking lower, it would go for a short term area of sell side. But then immediately rebound and go higher to take out by side again. So what that |
| 356 | 01:01:43,710 --> 01:01:54,990 | was indicating to me as the analysts, they're gravitating towards this gap. So your weight each day now, I thought that we could have started to run up to it |
| 357 | 01:01:55,020 --> 01:02:05,370 | Thursday, a little bit better than we did. Like I was expecting a whole lot more energy on Thursday. But because we didn't get that that's why Friday was it, |
| 358 | 01:02:05,610 --> 01:02:15,180 | that was the big hurrah, that was the floodgates opening up and you better be on board or get the hell out of the way. And here you have it. Now, obviously, this |
| 359 | 01:02:15,180 --> 01:02:25,500 | lesson is going to answer everything for all of you, you're gonna have a million new questions. And guess what? That's wonderful. That's being mentored, because |
| 360 | 01:02:25,500 --> 01:02:33,390 | I promise you as we go forward, those questions will get answered. And I don't have to do it in a response in a comment. Just write it down in your journal |
| 361 | 01:02:33,720 --> 01:02:43,380 | questions that need to be addressed. And you watch and see, because the way I talk and teach and show examples, you will get that answer. But it has to come |
| 362 | 01:02:43,380 --> 01:02:50,880 | in the natural progression of me teaching the way I teach, because I'm not going to change gears, I'm not going to have it your way mentorship, mentor, okay, I'm |
| 363 | 01:02:50,880 --> 01:02:59,430 | not going to be that that person for you. Okay. I like things my way if they named streets after me one way. And unfortunately, that rubs a lot of people |
| 364 | 01:02:59,430 --> 01:03:06,720 | wrong. But I promise you, if you submit to what I'm doing in teaching you, you're going to get what you're looking for, you're not going to get it on a |
| 365 | 01:03:06,720 --> 01:03:14,820 | timeline you want, but you're going to get it perfectly packaged, you'll understand everything as to what it is you're trying to do what you're looking |
| 366 | 01:03:14,820 --> 01:03:23,040 | for, when not to do something, why should you be sitting still, why should you be avoiding specific markets, you're gonna know all that stuff. And that's what |
| 367 | 01:03:23,040 --> 01:03:33,840 | makes a consistent, profitable trader. Because anything apart from what I'm teaching you here, it's gambling. And it's this circumstances that led to you |
| 368 | 01:03:33,840 --> 01:03:46,320 | just being right that time. And you're gonna attribute that to retail things indicators. Volume profile, Elliott Wave harmonics, supply and demand, whatever, |
| 369 | 01:03:46,560 --> 01:03:55,170 | put it fill in the blank. It's all that stuff. And I know that that's what makes a lot of you upset with me, because maybe you're making money with some of that |
| 370 | 01:03:55,170 --> 01:04:02,370 | stuff. But I promise you, if you go back and look at your examples where you made money, align it with this and you'll see why your trade really worked. And |
| 371 | 01:04:02,370 --> 01:04:10,800 | when you failed, look at what I'm teaching and you'll see that's the reason why your trades are failing. I know that sounds arrogant. I know that sounds very |
| 372 | 01:04:10,800 --> 01:04:17,730 | pompous. But it doesn't change the fact it is what it is. Until next time. Be safe. |