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ICT YT - 2022-06-22 - ICT Mentorship 2022 Episode 40

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2022-07-09 07:14
1 00:00:09,780 --> 00:00:18,900 ICT: Alright, folks, welcome back. This is gonna be kind of like the direction we're gonna be going in the future with the channel here. I'm wrapping up the
2 00:00:18,930 --> 00:00:34,290 mentorship teachings for this model. And we'll be just basically doing reviews and index futures, forex commodities when it's applicable. And I posted that on
3 00:00:34,920 --> 00:00:46,020 Twitter as kind of like a short little promo. And I was excited thinking that I'm gonna be doing like 30 different markets every single day. It's not what I'm
4 00:00:46,020 --> 00:00:58,380 doing. So kind of give you a flavor for what it is that we will be doing. The mentorship group that I have with us a private group, I no longer make videos
5 00:00:58,380 --> 00:01:10,560 for them. And one of the reasons why I started this project here is to steer people away from wanting to buy videos that aren't going to help you anyway. So
6 00:01:10,560 --> 00:01:21,900 when you're buying old videos, I'm talking about market moves for that particular day. So it's not going to be as useful to you. So to keep people from
7 00:01:21,930 --> 00:01:32,850 profiting off of pirated videos, I stopped making videos in my private group, and I make them here publicly. Now, some of my students are upset that I did
8 00:01:32,850 --> 00:01:43,830 that. Others to understand why I'm doing it are in support of it, I'm not going to argue or wrestle with the opinions of who's in supportive and who isn't
9 00:01:43,860 --> 00:01:51,090 supportive. I look at it this way, the folks that would have an issue with it, they're probably the ones that are trying to sell pirated videos. So now I've
10 00:01:51,090 --> 00:01:59,280 removed their market. So you're a fool. If you're going out there, and you're buying all these Instagram guys that are selling my videos, ICT, mentorship,
11 00:01:59,310 --> 00:02:11,670 2021 2022 20 2019, and all the way back to 2016. You know, folks, they're not going to help you. Because you weren't there, when it was given at the time it
12 00:02:11,670 --> 00:02:22,410 was given. That's being mentored. So that's what I'm kind of doing here. And I do on my Twitter account. So that way we understand why I'm doing it, and what
13 00:02:22,410 --> 00:02:32,250 motivates me to do it. So there won't be a lot of markets obviously being covered each day, I'll be looking at the markets that I was referring to either
14 00:02:32,250 --> 00:02:42,150 on Twitter, or I actually took trades in. So it's not a matter of talking about something that no one expected me to have an interest in, which is predominantly
15 00:02:42,150 --> 00:02:59,100 what you see here on YouTube and Instagram and Twitter and Facebook and discord. And, you know, it's the list goes on and on. So today, one minute before 830, I
16 00:02:59,100 --> 00:03:10,710 apologize, I was waiting for my phone to update its software. And by the time I got back on to Twitter, I had one minute left to type out everything that I
17 00:03:10,740 --> 00:03:20,400 posted and you can go on my Twitter feed, you'll actually see that post in here too. But on the economic calendar, there was a high impact news driver for
18 00:03:20,400 --> 00:03:29,520 Canadian dollar. And I said I would start working in for excellent as a lot of you are specifically interested in forex, because that's predominantly what I'm
19 00:03:29,520 --> 00:03:39,210 known for. I've moved away from Forex recently, because I wanted to be a part of the stock index futures market. And I'm still engaged, obviously. And then I did
20 00:03:39,210 --> 00:03:48,990 some live trades today. And I'll share some of that with you as well. But I was covering the Canadian dollar. And what I was outlining is kind of like this
21 00:03:49,020 --> 00:03:58,860 idea, and we're going to use it also to work within the scope of the teaching on daily bias. And we'll get into the later time in this video. But right away when
22 00:03:58,860 --> 00:04:09,270 you look on the left hand side, this chart here is dollar CAD daily chart and on the right hand side, it's the hourly chart of the same pair dollar CAD. Notice
23 00:04:09,300 --> 00:04:22,890 what we saw last week the market traded up, just bumped the short term high here with that daily high. What do we see? Once that occurred? What formed on that
24 00:04:22,890 --> 00:04:26,010 daily chart? You want to pause the video here
25 00:04:31,710 --> 00:04:44,970 all right, if you need more time, pause the video because I'm about to continue. When the market ran into that old high here, it hit it the next day it created a
26 00:04:44,970 --> 00:04:57,660 lower high candle. So we have one candle, higher candle high here on candle two, candle three or day three. So this is what I've dubbed a swing high. I'm not
27 00:04:57,660 --> 00:05:07,500 using a Williams fractal empty for I don't use empty for. This is not empty for platform and five candles if you're waiting for five candles, you missed the
28 00:05:07,500 --> 00:05:21,270 boat. So this swing high at an old high Did it run it? Not by much. But it did. That movement right here is shown clearly on the hourly chart, and the following
29 00:05:21,270 --> 00:05:32,220 day, creating a high that has a lower high than the highest one that ran into that old high. So we have a three bar pattern, one candle, the lower candle to
30 00:05:32,220 --> 00:05:42,870 the left a lower candle to the right, that's a swing high. Pretty simple stuff. Then the next day, I'm going to be expecting the market to trade lower. Now
31 00:05:42,870 --> 00:05:52,470 here's the problem with this particular market. Yes, it's likely to trade down and with the benefit of hindsight, I'm showing you here but again, I tweeted
32 00:05:52,470 --> 00:06:04,350 about this beforehand. So at 8:29am, Eastern Standard Time, you can see that is on my Twitter feed. If it's dropping down, we have this down close candle here.
33 00:06:04,800 --> 00:06:17,910 So it could be met with some resistance, digging into this range of this down close candle, about half of its body reading here. And not surprisingly, you can
34 00:06:17,910 --> 00:06:27,210 see it's pretty much where we close that candle here on the 21st of June 2022. So when we look at this dashed line here, what I'm anchoring to is the opening
35 00:06:27,210 --> 00:06:36,120 on this down close candle because that is a bullish order block. Now, I'm not suggesting that we went into that to go higher. I'm just saying that as we
36 00:06:36,120 --> 00:06:46,590 started this down move, it's digging into this candle. So that's going to be the impediment to a big sudden one big candle that would take us down into this area
37 00:06:46,590 --> 00:06:58,620 here and clear up this. So over to the hourly chart. You can see last week, we ran up until it started drifting lower, fair value gap here it rebalances to
38 00:06:58,620 --> 00:07:12,480 that drops back down consolidates between this high in the low here comes back in, drops once more attacking sell stops here consolidates, once more breaks,
39 00:07:12,900 --> 00:07:24,780 digs into that order block. Again, that's this level here. So watch what happens. It goes into it overnight, then it rallies. This rally here is a head
40 00:07:24,810 --> 00:07:38,250 of the 830 News driver on the economic count and you can find them on forex factory.com. But this movement here, this is all manipulation. That takes us up
41 00:07:38,250 --> 00:07:46,200 into an imbalance here fear Vega, running a short term high buy side has been taken when it runs here that's anchored above this short term high.
42 00:07:51,900 --> 00:08:03,870 The chart on the left here is a 15 minute time frame for dollar CAD. And the chart on the right is a five minute chart. On the economic calendar, you can see
43 00:08:03,870 --> 00:08:16,260 at 830 in the morning, June 21 2022, we had high impact news driver for core retail sales, and medium impact retail sales number, yellow events, I'm not
44 00:08:16,260 --> 00:08:29,100 interested in red for immediate impact, high or medium impact. Those are the news drivers I'm looking for. So if we look at the price movement on the five
45 00:08:29,100 --> 00:08:37,170 minute chart, you can see that once we rant up initially at seven o'clock in the morning, what is seven o'clock in the morning, New York time, that's the
46 00:08:37,170 --> 00:08:48,150 beginning of my ICT, New York kill zone extended to 10 o'clock in the morning when it's Forex. So seven o'clock to 10. In the morning, New York that local
47 00:08:48,150 --> 00:08:58,380 time, the market creates a short term high then runs above that. So we have buyside taken, then the market drops just below here, but I want to have a more
48 00:08:58,380 --> 00:09:09,180 meaningful displacement. Okay, and we want to see something that's more energetic, this little toe in the water type thing here. That's not enough. We
49 00:09:09,180 --> 00:09:20,100 want to see it fall in. Okay, so it drops down that short term low here. That's your shift in market structure, energetic displacement. And that candle is
50 00:09:20,100 --> 00:09:32,100 exactly when that news driver came out at 830. So all of this is news driver related economic calendar manipulation, and the market is going to cause people
51 00:09:32,160 --> 00:09:42,180 to want to sell short and chase it going lower. It creates a fair value gap in here on the five minute chart, but there also is a fair value gap here. Now
52 00:09:42,180 --> 00:09:52,470 ahead of the news. You might be thinking well, couldn't you have sold short here? Yes, you could have but the economic drivers that come out a 30 could have
53 00:09:52,500 --> 00:10:00,570 sent it up higher and taken us into this area here. So really, it's a matter of waiting for the news to hit the market and then create the setup That's a little
54 00:10:00,570 --> 00:10:12,270 bit more conservative. There are times when it's so obvious that they're going to continue to move that starts ahead of the new driver. But it takes a little
55 00:10:12,270 --> 00:10:22,260 bit more experienced to find those setups and trust them, I would rather you use your demo account to see these types of moves. Real time wait, fill in the form
56 00:10:22,290 --> 00:10:30,780 and then go in and engaging with your demo, not try to forecast how much of a move, it's going to further increase higher or lower, once the new driver comes
57 00:10:30,780 --> 00:10:44,040 out, or the news event hits the marketplace. Relative equal lows down here, here's your sell side. So we had this fear of a get formed after buyside was
58 00:10:44,040 --> 00:10:53,700 taken here. But now this creates an area of bison that wants this trade lower, we had this fair value gap, and then we had this very bad gap. So it could run
59 00:10:53,700 --> 00:11:06,090 up into that level with the volatility. So you gonna have to make sure that you have that defined with your risk management, the drawl and liquidity is likely
60 00:11:06,090 --> 00:11:15,720 to pull down into here, or into this fair value gap. And we'll talk a bit more about why that's the case. But eventually it trades down into it bagged and
61 00:11:15,720 --> 00:11:29,340 tagged, sells out liquidity. The tweet I posted again, you can see this at 8:29am, June 21 2022. I just made it on Twitter. But basically saying good
62 00:11:29,340 --> 00:11:41,460 morning, folks. Dollar CAD is about to have some volatility. Note the sell side and buy side on your five and 15 minute charts. Sell side is here. Buy side
63 00:11:41,460 --> 00:11:55,440 would be here. Study if it wants to run sell side, before buy side or rebounds to a discount. What does that mean? At the news driver release, it could go up
64 00:11:55,440 --> 00:12:08,070 and bump the buy side, then dig in for the imbalance here. That's a discount, or run the sell side out here. So all of this movement up since five o'clock in the
65 00:12:08,070 --> 00:12:19,890 morning, New York local time. This was just the head of that news driver here. So they were building in a premium. Then they're in a New York kill zone, it
66 00:12:19,890 --> 00:12:26,760 gave you to set up that I teach in this model delivered to the fair value gap in delivered to the Southside liquidity pool
67 00:12:29,220 --> 00:12:38,850 between this high and that low, here's equilibrium. So we have to find a discount array below that if we're going short, that's the fair value gap here.
68 00:12:39,300 --> 00:12:49,560 You can take a partial there and target the sell side liquidity, which you can see it does that as well, here. And here. I tweeted, failed to actually include
69 00:12:49,560 --> 00:12:56,790 that tweet, and was able to put it in here now. But I mentioned how the market reacted here like that. And I stated that's the reason why you want to take
70 00:12:56,790 --> 00:13:03,840 partials because you don't know if it's going to come all the way back up and then revisit this fear of a gap in lose the opportunity to bank something when
71 00:13:03,840 --> 00:13:19,260 it goes into your first opportunity discount rate when going short. Now I've dropped down into a four minute chart, and I dimmed the fair value gap that I
72 00:13:19,260 --> 00:13:26,100 mentioned earlier that you could have taken that trade but it'd be ahead of the news driver. And it's a little bit more riskier that you wait for the
73 00:13:26,100 --> 00:13:34,110 displacement, short term lows taken and we have a shift in market structure. And the imbalance would be between this low of this candle and the high of this
74 00:13:34,110 --> 00:13:46,680 candle in here. Now by itself, this is a rather elongated imbalance. So all of this sellside delivery is imbalanced. And there's not enough biocide delivery,
75 00:13:46,680 --> 00:13:58,950 so it's going to want to wait for the market to come back up in here. In Forex, there is no central measure of volume, okay, and in the algorithm that delivers
76 00:13:58,950 --> 00:14:10,050 price that is going to want to come back up and overlap this down move and offer buyers an opportunity to get in on that. It's just too much of a movement, one
77 00:14:10,050 --> 00:14:22,380 sided. So the market offers that rebalancing. So if that's the case, where in this range would we be looking for, for an entry knowing that this fair value
78 00:14:22,380 --> 00:14:32,280 got could be revisited, you're gonna have to utilize that for your stop loss or your stop would have to be here. Doesn't matter where you're going short, in
79 00:14:32,280 --> 00:14:41,130 between this low and this high. You have to define the risk with the stop here. Based on the model I'm teaching you now somebody you're like, Oh, this is too
80 00:14:41,130 --> 00:14:51,780 much, you know, because if I went in at 129 45 and I put my stop here, that's almost 12 pips, that's too much. No, it's not. It's all relative. You can scale
81 00:14:51,780 --> 00:14:59,460 that's one of the benefits of forex. It's very scalable, whereas if you're trading futures, you're kind of stuck to whatever the contract size is, and you
82 00:14:59,460 --> 00:15:13,470 got to either make Get work, or you can't take trades or you're basically over leveraged, which is what you don't want to be doing. So if we look at that range
83 00:15:13,500 --> 00:15:22,200 from that high, down to that low and drop a fib on it, we're gonna get measurement of 50% here, that's our equilibrium price point. So really, we need
84 00:15:22,200 --> 00:15:35,940 price to get to that point or higher. So by definition, we could be looking for a short here, up to here. And that will look like that. So that was that's
85 00:15:35,940 --> 00:15:46,110 really the range that you've been wanting to sell shorten. So you're not really risking a lot of pips. But you're defining the entry a little bit better, even
86 00:15:46,110 --> 00:15:55,440 though it goes above it a little bit, that's okay. But the bottom line is that eventually gets in sync, watch the bodies of candles support that premium high,
87 00:15:55,470 --> 00:16:05,400 but the imbalance, beautiful delivery, then starts to break lower, while more time for also to rally takes by some liquidity once more than the real move
88 00:16:05,400 --> 00:16:18,630 starts to unfold, trades into the fair value gap here, take partials that way, if this reverses on your paid and drops below a low were engineered Southside
89 00:16:18,630 --> 00:16:34,260 liquidity would be and then digs into the sell side liquidity over here. So your entry could be 129 44 129 47. In that range anywhere near is reasonable, it's
90 00:16:34,260 --> 00:16:42,600 acceptable. Obviously, the closer you get to this level, you may not have been filled, it might just leave some of that open, and then start the rollover. But
91 00:16:42,600 --> 00:16:49,320 as you can see, it goes a little bit further. That's fine. That's all we have to utilize this level here for our stop loss based on the models roles that I've
92 00:16:49,320 --> 00:17:03,900 taught in the 2022 YouTube mentorship. Alright, so I have a four minute chart here. With all the details shown. South Dakota people relatively equal lows from
93 00:17:03,900 --> 00:17:14,730 the morning, it rallies up creates a high afterburning vise on liquidity. It breaks down consolidates and gives a short term swing low here with an energetic
94 00:17:14,730 --> 00:17:25,020 run lower that the high impact news event a 30. rebalance stop goes here. And it rolls over
95 00:17:26,760 --> 00:17:36,480 during the 10 o'clock till 11 o'clock that that timeframe, 10 to 11. That's London close. So if you're looking for directional plays, and you're in a trade,
96 00:17:37,140 --> 00:17:45,150 you want to have about 80% of your trade off between 10 o'clock and 11 o'clock in the morning because usually not all the time. But usually, that's when it
97 00:17:45,150 --> 00:17:53,700 creates the opposing end of the daily range. So if it's creating the high of the session here, the low was likely to form between 10 o'clock and 11 o'clock
98 00:17:53,790 --> 00:18:04,050 that's algorithmic. Now there's some times if there's New Zealand's sometimes Canadian dollars influenced by Crude Oil numbers, and that would sometimes skew
99 00:18:04,530 --> 00:18:13,920 this time window of 10 to 11. So on those days when there's crude oil inventory numbers coming out, and I'm interested in trading the loonie, I will trade with
100 00:18:13,920 --> 00:18:23,820 the expectation between 10 o'clock to noon, and not have such a tight little window of 10 to 11. And I promise you I have students for days and days and days
101 00:18:23,820 --> 00:18:31,710 and years and years now, that will confirm that this has not just been foreign fitted for this example, I've always taught that 10 o'clock to 11 o'clock in the
102 00:18:31,710 --> 00:18:40,170 morning is London closed profit taking our I'm quite sure if you go through the old teachings I have in this YouTube channel, you'll probably actually hear me
103 00:18:40,170 --> 00:18:50,970 talking about that very thing as well. Alright, so we're going to talk about the E Mini s&p futures contract. This is the September contract for 2022. If you're
104 00:18:50,970 --> 00:19:04,020 following along on trading view, and I hope you are the symbol you will be utilizing for calling up the data for this contract is E S. U 202. Okay, and
105 00:19:04,020 --> 00:19:16,680 that would give you this chart here. This is a daily chart. And before I get into it, I want to talk a little bit about daily bias. Okay, so this topic is
106 00:19:16,680 --> 00:19:32,190 one of the most requested topics that I would cover. And I have done many teachings on it. I've done amplifications I've done revisits to this idea, and I
107 00:19:32,190 --> 00:19:42,300 know what you're wanting, okay, because it's what I wanted as well. You want a simple ABC 123 It always works. It's always going to be the same way. It's
108 00:19:42,300 --> 00:19:49,350 always going to be the same procedure process and it's always going to give you a winning trade. Now some of you're already folding your hands and hissing
109 00:19:49,350 --> 00:19:56,430 because you're like, ah, that's not what I want. That's not what I want. You're exaggerating, Michael. Now that's really what you want. And you want me to give
110 00:19:56,430 --> 00:20:07,710 you a very simple cookie cutter approach to find daily bye Yes. And I want you to understand that I've taught these things many times throughout the lessons
111 00:20:07,710 --> 00:20:23,640 and lectures and series that's found on his YouTube channel. This is the simplification that I make for daily bias. If you stick to these rules, you will
112 00:20:23,640 --> 00:20:34,380 know how to find daily bias, as I teach it, my students follow these rules, okay? I'm going to go through them with you. And you're going to be kicking and
113 00:20:34,380 --> 00:20:42,660 screaming and saying there, there's something else you're holding back there isn't it's experience, it's doing it yourself. But the keys to daily BIAs are
114 00:20:42,660 --> 00:20:55,050 simply this. Every day bias is unrealistic. If I go in looking for a specific predetermined daily bias, before the market starts trading, invariably, I'm
115 00:20:55,050 --> 00:21:07,170 going to have it incorrect. Notice, I said that I'm not perfect. Some of you hold me up to this hero level status. And I'm not a hero, okay, I'm just
116 00:21:07,170 --> 00:21:15,450 somebody that knows what they're looking for, and knows how to avoid hopefully, making the same mistakes over and over again, because I'm looking for a
117 00:21:15,450 --> 00:21:25,980 procedure and process that will lead to an outcome that generally not all the time, but generally yields a specific result. So I'm not trying to get daily
118 00:21:25,980 --> 00:21:37,950 bias every single day. I'm trying to determine the likely weekly expansion again, what is that? I utilize a weekly chart. And I studied that. And I want to
119 00:21:37,950 --> 00:21:48,720 see, does it look like it's going to run to an old low? Does it look like it's going to run to an old high? Or is it running to a imbalanced below the market
120 00:21:48,720 --> 00:21:59,130 price? Or is it trying to run to an imbalance above the market price? Or is it likely not to move because there's no data for it for that week. And other
121 00:21:59,130 --> 00:22:10,170 markets have high impact or medium impact news that would be more interesting. And the algorithm will be working those pairs are markets. And the pairs are
122 00:22:10,170 --> 00:22:15,900 markets that don't have a high impact or medium impact driver will probably be a lackluster market environment.
123 00:22:18,870 --> 00:22:29,850 I'm looking for the direction of an expansion move. I'm not trying to get the entire weekly range. I'm not trying to buy the weekly low and sell the weekly
124 00:22:29,850 --> 00:22:39,390 high. I can. But that's not what I'm trying to do. You don't need to do that. Okay. I know some of you hate when I do that. But I'm trying to make sure that
125 00:22:39,390 --> 00:22:47,460 you understand there's a distinction between what you should be coming into this with in terms of expectations, and what is realistic. Okay, in the beginning,
126 00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:58,290 all you're trying to do is determine is it likely to expand higher is there going to be a big move a flurry of activity going higher during the week, or
127 00:22:58,320 --> 00:23:10,260 going lower during the week. And by itself. That is huge in terms of what you're trying to pick. Now you might be wrong, because sometimes I get it wrong. But
128 00:23:10,260 --> 00:23:21,120 I'm looking for some volatility in a direction based on what I'm studying on a weekly chart. So this is a daily chart shown on this slide here. The same thing
129 00:23:21,120 --> 00:23:28,710 I would be doing to determine where the daily charts going. I'm trying to do that with a weekly chart, but I'm only interested in seeing what's it likely to
130 00:23:28,710 --> 00:23:38,130 reach for? I'm not trying to predict the weekly closing price on that candlestick. I'm trying to look for where is the bulk of that volatility going
131 00:23:38,130 --> 00:23:47,040 to be pushing higher or lower? And why would it be like that? And it's as simple as what I mentioned earlier? Is it aiming for in gravitating towards an old high
132 00:23:47,100 --> 00:23:55,740 to run above it? Or is it gravitating towards an old load run below it? Or is there an imbalance where it needs to come back and revisit that because it might
133 00:23:55,740 --> 00:24:04,350 just drop down to a fair value gap to go higher? Longer term? I don't even need to know that all I need to know is what direction is it most likely to have the
134 00:24:04,350 --> 00:24:19,260 majority of the volume pushing through. Now when I say volume, there is no centralized volume number in forex. When I say the volume, that means the the
135 00:24:19,260 --> 00:24:29,850 interest the the chaos, the energy, all the activity, the action, okay? Is it going to be on the higher side reaching for buy side or it's gonna be on the
136 00:24:29,850 --> 00:24:39,690 lower side reaching for sale aside? That's what I'm looking for. I want to find where is it likely to gun for this particular week who's in the crosshairs? Have
137 00:24:39,690 --> 00:24:48,510 people been making money going long? Is there a low that are going to try to run down and stop them out with it? That will be enough for me to frame an expansion
138 00:24:48,540 --> 00:25:01,620 going lower. So I'm looking for obvious liquidity in that direction. Below lows above old highs for identifying imbalances in price delivery. The top down, that
139 00:25:01,620 --> 00:25:10,740 means from the weekly down to the daily, down to the four hour down to the one hour to the 15 minute chart. And then once we get to the five minute chart, you
140 00:25:10,740 --> 00:25:24,930 do the scalings from 5432, and one, whichever has the clear, obvious fair value get for you, based on the models, rules. And I focus on days that have high or
141 00:25:24,930 --> 00:25:36,450 medium impact calendar events only. So, if you go through your economic calendar, in fact, you can look at next month's economic calendar, they're
142 00:25:36,450 --> 00:25:50,040 already there. Where are the high impact or medium impact news events for the markets that you trade? What day of the week, and what time. So if you have a
143 00:25:50,040 --> 00:26:01,770 news driver that's coming out on a particular day, say Tuesday or Wednesday, and you're expecting the weekly range to expand lower? Well, when those medium
144 00:26:01,770 --> 00:26:11,040 impact or high impact news events, I'm going to see hopefully, something that is going to run up higher, go into a fair value gap or run above a short term high
145 00:26:11,040 --> 00:26:22,590 run stocks and then break down show displacement, then create a fair value gap. And I'm going short on that. And I'm doing that and looking for that setup. And
146 00:26:22,590 --> 00:26:31,950 that directional price run inside my kill zones intraday. At the same time, the economic calendar is suggesting a high impact or medium impact news event is
147 00:26:31,950 --> 00:26:42,180 likely. So what did I just teach you here, I basically said that there is absolutely no expectation on my part, to know the bias every single day of every
148 00:26:42,180 --> 00:26:54,900 single calendar trading day. I'm only focusing on these sweet spots, these low hanging fruit days where everything's coming to get all of stars are lining,
149 00:26:55,230 --> 00:27:05,550 okay, I'm looking for the higher timeframe weekly to expand in a specific direction, that starts my bias, then, if I think it's going to be going higher
150 00:27:05,550 --> 00:27:08,820 or going lower for a specific target, or imbalance,
151 00:27:10,200 --> 00:27:18,780 then I'm gonna go to the economic calendar to look for when that might occur. Now, there may be a move that happens prior to the economic calendar event
152 00:27:18,780 --> 00:27:25,980 occurring. And that's just going to be a missed opportunity. So you have to use something else, some other pair, something else that you got the trade with,
153 00:27:26,670 --> 00:27:39,180 sometimes that occurs. But you'll see that there's a lot of opportunities using this criteria. And it's very forgiving for you as a developing student, because
154 00:27:39,720 --> 00:27:50,640 it's already given you permission not to know the daily bias outside of these rules. So you want to trade every single day, because you want to be the
155 00:27:50,640 --> 00:28:03,690 everyday trader, I don't want to be the everyday trader, the everyday trader is more prone to have losing trades, because they are trying to do something every
156 00:28:03,690 --> 00:28:11,610 single day when there are times when you should not be trading at all. And that's what makes me different from all the other educators out there because I
157 00:28:11,610 --> 00:28:22,290 have made a career out of knowing how not to destroy myself. Because that's what I did when I was a 20 year old. I thought that I could trade every single day.
158 00:28:22,710 --> 00:28:34,950 And that's problematic when you don't know how to trade, and you have a lot of time or lack of self control. And that's why I was blowing accounts when I was
159 00:28:34,950 --> 00:28:47,190 20 and 2122. That fevered pace have, I got to do it, I got to do it, I'm gonna miss that next move, when hopefully, you've seen now enough instances where this
160 00:28:47,190 --> 00:28:57,240 pattern repeats a lot over the course of a month, it's in most markets a few times a week. But if you notice those moves are occurring when there's a high
161 00:28:57,240 --> 00:29:08,640 impact or medium pack news driver on the economic calendar. So it's something that you can plan for you ever hear the the old cliche remarks of books and
162 00:29:08,700 --> 00:29:20,520 educators they say, plan your trade and trade you're playing? Well, this is how you can do that with that model. You look for that kind of calendar, the time of
163 00:29:20,520 --> 00:29:33,120 day what kills own in the market, you're expecting expansion higher low on that weekly chart. There it is. You're looking for these things to repeat. And if you
164 00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:42,240 start journaling these things, you're going to notice that the setups This is one of the epiphanies, okay, because I know some of you just don't want to do
165 00:29:42,240 --> 00:29:53,220 this. But now because I'm gonna tell you, you're gonna go into it, hopefully and see that what I'm saying is true. If you backlog every day, show everything that
166 00:29:53,220 --> 00:30:01,170 took place. mark up your charts, as I'm going to show you in some examples in here. When that happens over time, you're going to See that the best setups
167 00:30:01,170 --> 00:30:11,700 occur when these calendar events are in play. And they originate around that same time. And what'll happen is it'll convince you to say, Okay, I don't need
168 00:30:11,700 --> 00:30:20,640 to be the everyday trader, I don't need to be in here being super scalper, I don't need to be in here trying to be an Olympic trader, because trading is not
169 00:30:20,640 --> 00:30:34,170 an Olympic sport. It's not an Olympic event. And they don't get that gold medals for over trading. But they do blow accounts. So eventually doing that enough.
170 00:30:35,070 --> 00:30:46,170 And if you don't know what you're doing, you're gonna blow your account. And that's hopefully what I'm trying to prevent you from enduring. Alright, so we're
171 00:30:46,170 --> 00:30:56,910 looking at the hourly chart here on the s&p, obviously, we've traded down with that, relatively equal lows, but this low one just a little bit lower than that
172 00:30:56,910 --> 00:31:03,900 one. That's all we need to hit that. And it started retracing higher, this movement here.
173 00:31:05,310 --> 00:31:17,610 That's whipsawing, both sides of the marketplace, sell side taken, then by side taken, and then it broke down. Whenever I see price action like this, I ignore
174 00:31:17,670 --> 00:31:27,150 the both side type movement. Usually it's FOMC, or some kind of rate announcement type event. And that's what you're seeing here. When I see that I
175 00:31:27,150 --> 00:31:36,480 ignore that wick, and I ignore all these as well, the real ranges here, this has manipulation, it's already done, it's not going to hurt you focus on this swing
176 00:31:36,480 --> 00:31:46,800 here. So when the market drops down, it creates this low, one's a little bit lower, we're consolidating, we had holiday on Monday, the market starts to drift
177 00:31:46,800 --> 00:32:02,280 higher. And what I'm concerning with this run here is this high to that low, and I'm getting my range. Equilibrium is here. So if it's going higher, what's it
178 00:32:02,280 --> 00:32:11,670 reaching for? What's going to go into a premium. And this right here, this imbalance, I'm not really interested in that one, because it's overlapping with
179 00:32:11,670 --> 00:32:22,920 that equilibrium 50% level of the high to that low. So I want to see it dig into a premium. So even if this is going to go up to go down, I want to know, do I
180 00:32:22,920 --> 00:32:32,880 have an opportunity to see it go up into this area here, or maybe even up here. So we'll use the first low hanging fruit approach here. So if fair value get
181 00:32:32,880 --> 00:32:41,070 there and balanced sellside, only tomorrow is going to want to revisit that area. This is exactly what I teach you. This is exactly what happened. Look at
182 00:32:41,070 --> 00:32:52,890 the bodies of the candles. Yes, there's a little bit of movement just above this candles low. But look at the bulk of these candles, the bodies, they're staying
183 00:32:52,890 --> 00:33:01,830 within that range as defined by what I teach you as a fair value got in a premium market. What makes it a premium, it's above the 50% level. So it's gone
184 00:33:01,860 --> 00:33:15,930 up into that level here it's consolidating. On the 15 minute timeframe, pause the video, look for what you can identify based on your understanding and
185 00:33:15,930 --> 00:33:32,310 experience learning under me so far. Okay, if you need more time, pause the video. Alright, so here's midnight, New York local time. We have a fair value
186 00:33:32,310 --> 00:33:41,640 gap here, bullish order block these last three down closed candles, that's one consecutive order block. It digs into the order block with the fair value gap
187 00:33:42,540 --> 00:33:54,660 hits that during the London session. It rallies up, we create a fair value gap here. It runs by side here and then creates relative equal highs ahead of the
188 00:33:54,660 --> 00:34:06,870 New York session. So the market drops down goes into the fair value gap here into the last enclosed candle bullish order block there. That's where you could
189 00:34:06,870 --> 00:34:19,530 be a buyer ahead of the 930 opening. Why would you feel confident to do that? Because we already have an energetic price run from London Open. The market
190 00:34:19,530 --> 00:34:32,400 started at midnight in went where did it go up? No. It went down into an imbalance and then there was a lot of energy off of that. So the market created
191 00:34:32,640 --> 00:34:44,070 a short term shift in market structure here that's bullish. London creates the higher low most of the time so if you don't have time, you're gonna find it.
192 00:34:44,070 --> 00:34:57,120 That is true. If your directional bias is correct, so I'm trusting that that low is probably pricing in the daily low. This retracement into the New York session
193 00:34:57,960 --> 00:35:08,760 retreating into In order block, we close up this fair value gap. And we rally a little bit and drop back down into the fair value get once more creating optimal
194 00:35:08,760 --> 00:35:18,120 trade entry. That's not what we're going to focus on this one here. But we have the New York am session beginning here, from 830 in the morning to 11. This is
195 00:35:18,120 --> 00:35:29,100 specific to index futures for the morning session. This is the upper level in that fear of a gap on the hourly chart. And this is the lower level on the
196 00:35:29,100 --> 00:35:40,170 hourly if you have a gap. So that's your targets, it's gonna be a drop in liquidity. The market runs from the fair a gap here to the lower the fair pay
197 00:35:40,170 --> 00:35:45,630 gap on the hourly chart to the high the fair value gap on the hourly chart, after clearing bias on liquidity.
198 00:35:48,900 --> 00:36:00,630 On a five minute chart, there's a lot of things going on here, you can see we have a low, then we ran that low once more, then it rallies and moves up away
199 00:36:00,630 --> 00:36:09,360 from the order block, and then back down into the last closed candle on the five minute chart. So there's an heirarchy of how the markets trading down into a
200 00:36:09,360 --> 00:36:18,870 higher timeframe, to a lower timeframe to a lower timeframe, all being supported by down close candles within the bias that's bullish. And once Faraday gaps are
201 00:36:18,870 --> 00:36:28,830 being closed in the market goes higher. So it's signaling to you, it's indicating to you that you don't need an indicator, you don't need some wonky
202 00:36:28,830 --> 00:36:36,570 little gimmicky candlestick replacement, okay? The candlestick is telling you everything you need to know, you don't need to have any kind of indicators, no
203 00:36:36,570 --> 00:36:52,260 moving averages, none of that garbage. Okay. Everything has been shown here in price action relative to time and price. So we have the market, starting with a
204 00:36:52,320 --> 00:37:03,450 run from this low with a lower low. So what took place here, we'll come back to that in a minute. Mark comes back down into the short term discount, relative to
205 00:37:03,450 --> 00:37:18,390 the low to the high here, this count rallies, and at 930, it's consolidating, and then it starts to run reaches for the boss of liquidity here, the low of the
206 00:37:18,390 --> 00:37:30,510 fair pay gap on the hourly chart and the high the fair value gap on the hourly chart, as draws on liquidity. Three targets all hit. We're gonna zoom in. And
207 00:37:30,510 --> 00:37:45,210 this is a zoomed in chart of the session that starts at 830. And going into the 930 opening. So we have the low here lower low into the order block, it rallies
208 00:37:45,240 --> 00:37:53,400 short term shift in market structure here comes back down in, there's an imbalance or if you have a gap here, these levels are based on the five minute
209 00:37:53,400 --> 00:38:03,990 chart. So even though we're looking at a smaller timeframe than that, that's what we're looking at. But we're gonna refine that down into this particular
210 00:38:03,990 --> 00:38:12,750 timeframe. So inside that, and we go back up one more slide. So inside the fair value gap we're dropping down in here, but we're doing it into this very vague
211 00:38:12,750 --> 00:38:26,100 gap there. Down close candle, that's an order block and fair value gap. There this, you can buy this, right there, and trust that it's not likely to take that
212 00:38:26,100 --> 00:38:40,590 low out why? Because we already had a stock running event here. low, lower low sell side taken reaction. Off the order block, were ended a fair value gap, we
213 00:38:40,590 --> 00:38:49,380 rallied once more, we created a fair value gap here, drop down that last down closed candle, you can be a buyer there. There's buyside liquidity resting up
214 00:38:49,380 --> 00:38:59,730 here, that's gonna be your initial draw on liquidity. So that'd be at first partial. If you want to add if you want to pyramid, the position. You can add
215 00:38:59,730 --> 00:39:10,590 that as it starts to run up higher. But I want to show you the low to the high here that's 50% or equilibrium, the market drops into a discount prior to that
216 00:39:11,040 --> 00:39:25,740 run up here. This consolidation at 930 we see it taking off here. It's already done the move of manipulation knocking people out, retracing then off to the
217 00:39:25,740 --> 00:39:36,810 races. So this is a case where you do not need to wait for 930s opening to get that volatility to get these types of manipulation moves. This is an early
218 00:39:36,810 --> 00:39:52,710 setup, discount fair a gap and rallies. So notice what's happening. We have an hourly discount that we're trading into here. Then it creates a short term
219 00:39:53,550 --> 00:40:05,640 discount relative to this low to this high. That's what we're seeing here. Then the market rallies Here comes back down into an order block and fair value gap
220 00:40:05,730 --> 00:40:15,990 discount rallies consolidates ahead of 930. Is it likely to trade back down and take that low out? No, because it's already closed in the only fair value gap
221 00:40:15,990 --> 00:40:24,030 that's here. See that? That's if you're up here. Looking back, it's already rebounds this, there's no reason for it to go down. It doesn't need to go down
222 00:40:24,030 --> 00:40:31,980 here. Because it's already shown a willingness to want to rally in this run, didn't need to go over here because this load got that low. So that is all
223 00:40:31,980 --> 00:40:43,860 framework in narrative. So all that comes together. Now also couple that with the 830 news that took place in the dollar CAD,
224 00:40:45,570 --> 00:40:57,780 I'm showing you how these two markets relate to one another with the proper context and bias. Dollar CAD, what is the currencies first pair, and its name,
225 00:40:58,140 --> 00:41:08,280 dollar. So if we're expecting as I was hinting it on Twitter, it going down to a discount or buying sell side liquidity, that means the bias is bearish. So if
226 00:41:08,280 --> 00:41:25,170 the bias is bearish on dollar CAD, that means that it's a risk on scenario. So the markets like s&p, NASDAQ, other foreign currencies are going to be easier to
227 00:41:25,170 --> 00:41:36,090 rally versus going down in dollar pairs. I'm not really interested in anything except for the dollar CAD because dollar CAD had the high impact news event. So
228 00:41:36,090 --> 00:41:46,950 I don't need to go to the dollar itself. When I have a high impact news event, or $1 CAD, I can go right to that and cut to the chase and Turman what devices
229 00:41:46,950 --> 00:41:56,550 for the morning session. Because if I'm likely to see lower prices on dollar CAD, that's the same thing as saying lower dollar higher foreign currency. And
230 00:41:56,550 --> 00:42:09,180 when the dollar goes down, it's easy for spoons or Emini s&p Stock index futures to go higher. And everything I've shown here is in concert with that idea. So
231 00:42:09,180 --> 00:42:21,210 here we have that short term high shifting market structure, after a stop hunt, retracement to discount the fair value gap buying here run to initial target Buy
232 00:42:21,210 --> 00:42:29,880 Sell liquidity, relative equal highs here, it runs that you can't see it here. Remember, we were dropping down is a three minute chart now. It rallies up
233 00:42:29,880 --> 00:42:43,020 creates a fair value gap here overshoots it a little bit, that's fine. Rallies once more, and digs into the high of the hourly fair value gap. And again, kind
234 00:42:43,020 --> 00:42:56,850 of like what I was suggesting moments ago, here is that movement up in the s&p at the 930 time period, when dollar CAD was trading down into its discount here.
235 00:42:58,020 --> 00:43:12,750 So lower dollar CAD, higher SMP. So as a forex trader, you could be selling short if you're not an SMP trader. Or if you're not trading Forex, like me, this
236 00:43:12,870 --> 00:43:22,770 is the long on s&p, and you can add in as it's taking out this short term high here. You can look for pyramiding opportunities, and what would that look like?
237 00:43:23,850 --> 00:43:33,360 Well, I was in a 10 second chart. And then some of you were surprised when I said that. But here is the 930 opening here. And we had a little bit of
238 00:43:33,360 --> 00:43:42,900 consolidation, then we had a run higher, creating the fair value gap between here and here. The market drop down I'm buying there. It rallies up into that
239 00:43:42,930 --> 00:43:51,630 there's my entry, you can see it right there. That's the fill, that's the price 3741 three quarters. And as the market goes higher, if you're trading like this,
240 00:43:51,630 --> 00:44:00,210 you can take FAR first partials that logical levels, as I mentioned, we were on the higher timeframe charts. And as it goes higher, you just scale off what your
241 00:44:00,210 --> 00:44:07,140 model what your approach or your plan would allow for and then hold something for the rest of the day towards the close, or at least try to see if you get a
242 00:44:07,170 --> 00:44:15,840 continuation into the afternoon session. And that would be between 130 and four o'clock in the afternoon, New York local time. So hopefully this has been
243 00:44:15,840 --> 00:44:25,920 insightful to you. Hopefully it has helped you obviously, in terms of using other markets for inter market relationships for bias, how to navigate markets.
244 00:44:25,920 --> 00:44:32,670 These are the only two markets I talked about today. And you can see how they had a synergy between them. There was a
245 00:44:34,469 --> 00:44:41,129 the movement and kind of like a dance between them, even though they're not correlated, don't think that there's any kind of correlation between them. It's
246 00:44:41,159 --> 00:44:48,779 the fact that it's risk on risk off. That's all that it is. And I was focusing primarily on dollar CAD because dollar CAD had its high impact news drivers for
247 00:44:48,779 --> 00:44:59,129 today. So I was using that in relationship to what I would expect in the s&p market. And I found my trade by utilizing a market I'm not going to trade but if
248 00:44:59,129 --> 00:45:10,349 it's going to give me insight item is going to be lower, it helps me frame risk on risk off risk on that means foreign currencies index futures stocks go higher
249 00:45:10,379 --> 00:45:20,339 dollar goes down, risk off is dollar higher and everything else going down. So, if you go into your day with those ideas, risk on risk off, it makes it a lot
250 00:45:20,339 --> 00:45:31,469 easier to look for supporting ideas with intermarket relationships, correlations between assets, like, if you are trading like Forex, Euro Dollar versus cable,
251 00:45:31,979 --> 00:45:44,789 Euro dollar would be a better trade than, say, POUND DOLLAR, if there is an inability for one of them to go low, make a lower low. And one doesn't do that,
252 00:45:44,819 --> 00:45:54,149 that's showing you that the relative strength leader that will be the better buy in this situation here. Another instance would be Aussie dollar in Kiwi dollar
253 00:45:54,539 --> 00:46:05,429 in New Zealand dollar. If you're looking at situations like this, and you find a currency that fails to make a lower low, intraday, when it's risk going, you'd
254 00:46:05,429 --> 00:46:15,479 be buying the risk on higher low currency. And I didn't see I didn't look at the Australian dollar in the Kiwi this morning. And it may not have presented it.
255 00:46:15,479 --> 00:46:24,629 But if I were trading those pairs in I wouldn't really be trading them because the impact news driver when they found a calendar is again on dollar CAD. So
256 00:46:24,629 --> 00:46:31,889 that's the market I will be trading. So a lot of you ask all the time, like how do you know which pair to trade? How do I know which one to pick, I'm starting
257 00:46:31,889 --> 00:46:43,559 that with the economic calendar. But sometimes I may use that market. For instance, instead of it being dollar CAD today, if Euro dollar had high impact
258 00:46:43,559 --> 00:46:55,379 news event, I would compare pound Dollar and Euro dollar for correlation. So I would look for s&p Divergence to signal which one I'd rather be in. Just because
259 00:46:55,379 --> 00:47:06,809 the news driver is in, for instance, the euro, the better trade may be in POUND DOLLAR. If they both went down prior to the news event coming out for euro in if
260 00:47:06,809 --> 00:47:14,939 POUND DOLLAR failed to make a lower low I'm buying POUND DOLLAR, because they're going to most likely move in sympathy with one another because they're closely
261 00:47:14,939 --> 00:47:25,589 correlated. But in the instance of dollar CAD, I'm not going to do anything except for focus on dollar CAD because the economic calendar suggested that's
262 00:47:25,589 --> 00:47:33,479 where the volatility would be for forex today. And you're welcome to do that to the pairs and compare and contrast whether that's true or not, I didn't do it.
263 00:47:33,509 --> 00:47:43,019 But you can do that on your own. And hopefully you got something out of this one until I talk to you on Thursday for our discussion on money management that will
264 00:47:43,019 --> 00:47:55,289 complete the 2020 mentorship teachings and we'll just continuously do market reviews on the YouTube channel Monday through Friday. So I'll obviously be back
265 00:47:55,289 --> 00:48:02,279 Lord willing, tomorrow on Wednesday with a review on something either s&p related or some kind of forex pair. And hopefully you'll learn something from
266 00:48:02,279 --> 00:48:04,739 that as well. Until next time, be safe