ICT YT - 2022-06-22 - ICT Index Futures and Forex Review
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2022-07-09 07:14
| 1 | 00:00:09,510 --> 00:00:23,460 | ICT: Alright folks, welcome back. It's going to be a review on June 22 2020. This is the economic calendar for tomorrow for Thursday, June 23 2022. As you |
| 2 | 00:00:23,460 --> 00:00:35,970 | can see in the New York session at 830, we have unemployment claims for the dollar index, that's medium impact right here. And then we have at 945, Flash |
| 3 | 00:00:35,970 --> 00:00:50,850 | manufacturing PMI number, and flash services PMI dollar based media impact. And 10 o'clock here is the heavy hitters is the high impact dollar affected, which |
| 4 | 00:00:50,850 --> 00:01:03,630 | is really going to cause all the other markets as well. But another testimony by Fed Chair Powell. So what does that mean? It means basically, wait until the |
| 5 | 00:01:03,630 --> 00:01:15,810 | dust settles, okay, just like today, I explained on Twitter, I'm not trying to be ahead of a Fed Chair testimony, not trying to do it. A lot of manipulation |
| 6 | 00:01:15,810 --> 00:01:27,840 | comes in. Usually when that occurs, and your analysis, your expectation, your bias, the sentiment, everything can be disrupted, based on what they say, and |
| 7 | 00:01:27,840 --> 00:01:38,010 | how the market makers interpret that in terms of manipulating the present sentiment or engineering new sentiment. Alright, so we were talking about dollar |
| 8 | 00:01:38,010 --> 00:01:52,200 | CAD, because dollar CAD today on Wednesday, June 22 2022, it had a high impact news driver at 830, the CPI number for Canadian dollar daily chart of the dollar |
| 9 | 00:01:52,200 --> 00:02:03,330 | CAD and I'm drawing your attention to this candle here. The bodies open to close split that in half, that's mean threshold of a bearish order block. The market |
| 10 | 00:02:03,330 --> 00:02:17,640 | trades up into that today hits it as resistance and stalls there. So we're gonna be using this level here in the lower timeframe charts. Here's that red level. |
| 11 | 00:02:18,120 --> 00:02:27,750 | Again, it's the daily bearish order block mean threshold? Yes, it's a mouthful. But it is something that I teach with My Order block theory is something that's |
| 12 | 00:02:28,590 --> 00:02:37,860 | significant. It's not something that's contrived. It's something that really has an impact on price action. And you can see how we traded up into that today, we |
| 13 | 00:02:37,860 --> 00:02:50,820 | swept through it Yes, and found some resistance to then finally, move lower attacking. All the run up in here, there sellside resting below these relatively |
| 14 | 00:02:50,820 --> 00:03:01,650 | equal lows, and now by sigh resides here. So we are relatively equal highs relative equal lows ahead of another Powell testimony tomorrow with unemployment |
| 15 | 00:03:02,190 --> 00:03:16,230 | numbers, and there's a lot of potential for volatility that may be not favorable. So we'll wait until about 15 to 20 minutes after Powell does his job |
| 16 | 00:03:16,230 --> 00:03:26,610 | owning any imbalance or any liquidity pool that would be obvious that you're trying to attack then you know, we're worked with that you should make yourself |
| 17 | 00:03:26,610 --> 00:03:40,320 | available. Alright, so on a 15 minute timeframe. Again, buy sell liquidity pool sell side liquidity pool, we were looking at the dollar CAD and the likelihood |
| 18 | 00:03:40,350 --> 00:03:53,670 | of reaching down into a discount. So this count would be from low to high split that in half, find some imbalance here and here. And we're gonna look at the |
| 19 | 00:03:53,670 --> 00:04:06,990 | price runs in here on the five minute chart. So seven o'clock in the morning to 10 o'clock. That's the ICT, New York kill zone 830 The market drops down yes, it |
| 20 | 00:04:06,990 --> 00:04:16,590 | takes out this short term low. Yes, it takes out that short term low. But using just the five minute chart, this is what I'm giving you here. So I'm going to |
| 21 | 00:04:16,590 --> 00:04:27,450 | use this level here for the five minutes. So if you're a market trader that is adopted this model and you don't want to use less than a five minute chart, |
| 22 | 00:04:28,080 --> 00:04:36,210 | you're demanding the five minute chart be your only lowest timeframe. Now what you're throwing out the rules of dropping down from the five minute the four |
| 23 | 00:04:36,210 --> 00:04:45,000 | minute the three to two and one until it gives you a very refined very get to trade with after a shift in market structure. Then this is what you would have |
| 24 | 00:04:45,000 --> 00:04:52,890 | to wait for this low even though it comes back up and rebalances here. This is a little bit more meaningful displacement. See how much more energetic that is and |
| 25 | 00:04:52,890 --> 00:05:04,110 | it closes on its low versus this down here. Not technically for me this is enough for shifting infrastructure. And we could be shortened here. But |
| 26 | 00:05:05,160 --> 00:05:15,270 | drawing a contrast between this taken out that short term law here versus this taking that short term low. This is the better one more conservative approach |
| 27 | 00:05:16,170 --> 00:05:26,880 | than any for the fair value gaps over here, as I mentioned on the fifth to end timeframe. The imbalance here, retreat back up into that hit a bear shoulder |
| 28 | 00:05:26,880 --> 00:05:37,050 | block, then starts to work lower, small, little fair Vegas, and here comes back rebalances. That real choppy, then breaks lower once more. And again, a text a |
| 29 | 00:05:37,050 --> 00:05:46,050 | discount of race. Here's a four minute chart just to show you a little bit more refinement. Now in the four minute chart, it looks a lot more meaningful, |
| 30 | 00:05:46,110 --> 00:05:54,930 | because the five looks like a big, like a doji, almost Okay, where it came down had a really long wick, you don't see that so much on the four minute charts. So |
| 31 | 00:05:55,080 --> 00:06:03,300 | this is why I'm teaching you in the model teaches the drop down from the five minute that for three to one to find a timeframe and this is the one anything |
| 32 | 00:06:03,300 --> 00:06:10,530 | less than that is not required, like we don't need a three minute we don't need a two minute we don't need a one minute short term shift and market structure |
| 33 | 00:06:10,560 --> 00:06:23,370 | here. Nice displacement, it comes back up what's it do Phil's in a fair Vega. So your stop can be here. Or if you want to be a little more conservative, you can |
| 34 | 00:06:23,370 --> 00:06:35,520 | use that swing high here because the swing high prior to the fairway got and forming. So very, very small tiny little stoploss and reaching for discount |
| 35 | 00:06:35,610 --> 00:06:56,190 | array taking us down below 129 3129 25. So not bad, over 50 pips or so for this rolling right into the Union s&p futures contract September 2022. We're gonna |
| 36 | 00:06:56,190 --> 00:07:04,500 | begin with the hourly chart, and I want you to take a look at what we see here. Alright, and we're gonna ask you to pause the video, look for things that make |
| 37 | 00:07:04,500 --> 00:07:12,060 | the most sense in terms of where's your eye draw to? And what do you see without putting in the lipstick on the chart yet? |
| 38 | 00:07:17,160 --> 00:07:28,860 | Alright, if you're not ready, make sure you're pausing the video. Alright, so we have a pool of liquidity over here in the form of Southside relative equal lows. |
| 39 | 00:07:29,220 --> 00:07:41,790 | The market runs up yesterday, greater relative equal highs, breaks lower. Overnight midnight New York time. We dropped below Southside. Creating Judas |
| 40 | 00:07:41,790 --> 00:07:52,200 | swing low of the day in London rallies up consolidates a little bit and then rallies aggressively above the opening price, which is what this is here at |
| 41 | 00:07:52,200 --> 00:08:08,010 | midnight. So if we're bullish on stock index futures, it creates a potential low of the day power three is we want to be buying at or below, ideally, for bullish |
| 42 | 00:08:08,010 --> 00:08:19,860 | day, in target. Relative equal highs, that's good. But we can trade in close proximity to the opening price as well. So if it just starts to go above it, we |
| 43 | 00:08:19,860 --> 00:08:28,500 | can utilize that when would we be doing that? Well, in this instance, we had Powell speaking. So it's already done. Its work on creating the LOA day. And |
| 44 | 00:08:28,500 --> 00:08:37,650 | it's starting its energetic run to create the profit release portion of the daily range where it's starting to really run expand green, that big daily |
| 45 | 00:08:37,950 --> 00:08:52,380 | expansion, attacking buyside liquidity over here. On a 15 minute timeframe, the New York am session between 830 and 11. That's what's being highlighted here. |
| 46 | 00:08:52,410 --> 00:09:02,880 | Again, that's specific to stock index futures is not the same as the Forex kill zone seven to 10 830. And more until 11 is the aim session for stock index |
| 47 | 00:09:02,880 --> 00:09:15,120 | futures so your setups will form between those time periods. Have a little retracement here, I would not and I did not participate anything at all in the |
| 48 | 00:09:15,120 --> 00:09:25,080 | market until Powell had already started talking. So that's kind of like what I'm showcasing tonight and what we expect tomorrow when he talks again at 10 |
| 49 | 00:09:25,080 --> 00:09:35,130 | o'clock. New York local time. The market runs above New York midnight opening and you have to consider power three so what did we do we opened Judas swing |
| 50 | 00:09:35,130 --> 00:09:47,790 | lower stop hunt see that? Rallies retracement starts to rally again. Do not be afraid the buy just above the opening price. Don't think it's going above here |
| 51 | 00:09:47,790 --> 00:09:57,210 | and go down. It's already done the work here just like I was explaining last night in the review portion. There is no reason for you to be fearful of this re |
| 52 | 00:09:57,450 --> 00:10:05,730 | reversing and going lower because it's already priced in and all the business that's needed for the low of the day forming. And because it's waiting for |
| 53 | 00:10:05,730 --> 00:10:18,420 | Powell, at 930, Wednesday, it rallies through it aggressively. What's it gonna be running for this level up here, this that buys out liquidity pool. There's |
| 54 | 00:10:18,420 --> 00:10:28,440 | relative equal highs, and we ran right into it here. And between 10 o'clock and 11 o'clock, it creates a nice little run relative equal highs, retraces into the |
| 55 | 00:10:28,440 --> 00:10:38,580 | lunch, our short term swing low taken, then they pump it up through taking out the buy side that will be resting relative equal highs here, they take that and |
| 56 | 00:10:38,580 --> 00:10:50,910 | then retrace back into the range. On a five minute chart, this is what I was watching today. And why I was not afraid to go in with live phones. It was a |
| 57 | 00:10:50,910 --> 00:11:04,440 | live account. I use this fair value got Yes, we were above the New York opening price. If we weren't monitoring and seeing Powell speaking at 930, I would have |
| 58 | 00:11:04,440 --> 00:11:15,210 | been in ahead but because Powell can create the opportunity the stage, if you will, for heavy manipulation. Once he starts talking, and that's in here. It |
| 59 | 00:11:15,210 --> 00:11:24,270 | runs above the opening price. Watch what happens pay real close attention to what I'm gonna show you here. The market rallies up, it opens drops down rallies |
| 60 | 00:11:24,270 --> 00:11:34,830 | again, it opens drops down rallies again, creates a fair value gap. I'm not afraid to buy in here. So as the markets dropping down, I'm buying that that |
| 61 | 00:11:34,830 --> 00:11:48,360 | fair value gap I'm buying it with the expectation is going to run above the 3785 level. More specifically 3783 and three quarters, the old high. Why am I |
| 62 | 00:11:49,830 --> 00:12:01,200 | avoiding any fearful feelings or nervousness about being a buyer here. Because we've already done the work Orion stops down here. We retraced ahead of Powell |
| 63 | 00:12:01,260 --> 00:12:12,420 | and the equities open at 930. The market rallies above the opening price of midnight New York time. So now what we're expecting is the rain to expand to by |
| 64 | 00:12:12,420 --> 00:12:18,270 | side. This is the first view of a gap once we got above the midnight opening price. |
| 65 | 00:12:19,680 --> 00:12:29,700 | So New York Time midnight, you have to set a time, or a clock on your computer or just by a clock that you can keep at your trade desk that tells you the time |
| 66 | 00:12:29,700 --> 00:12:40,140 | locally in New York all the time year round. This is the very first setup that I can trade based on my personal rules. I can't trade ahead of Powell because he |
| 67 | 00:12:40,140 --> 00:12:48,150 | could literally clean my clock and everyone else that would be trading against him, or whatever effects would be caused in the marketplace because of his |
| 68 | 00:12:48,390 --> 00:12:55,680 | jawboning. Now I'm not of the opinion that what he says moves the market, I believe this is my interpretation that we you can understand it, you don't have |
| 69 | 00:12:55,680 --> 00:13:03,900 | to subscribe to it. This is what I do. And here's what I think happens. He says things, those individuals that are running the markets, the market makers, those |
| 70 | 00:13:03,900 --> 00:13:12,810 | that are in control that can manually go in and twist things and make things happen. They're gonna listen to what he's saying. And they may choose to go |
| 71 | 00:13:12,810 --> 00:13:21,510 | against what his testimony is implying. If he's hawkish, if he's dovish, it doesn't matter to me, I'm waiting to see what the price of the markets are |
| 72 | 00:13:21,510 --> 00:13:31,380 | doing. That's what I care about. Because I'm not smart enough to understand what that man is saying and how it might relate to immediate or near term or |
| 73 | 00:13:31,380 --> 00:13:41,190 | intermediate term prognostication about the marketplace, I don't think there's any value in that. Now if we're gonna talk about fundamentals, interest rates, |
| 74 | 00:13:41,190 --> 00:13:50,100 | and different interest rates, differential for forex, those fundamental things, that is a reality, and I'm I am concerned about those things. But whenever |
| 75 | 00:13:50,100 --> 00:13:59,220 | there's a speaker or a testimony, something to that effect, I don't want to be in front of that, because anything can happen. And if you're in here trading |
| 76 | 00:13:59,220 --> 00:14:09,540 | with live money, you're gambling. So while you're learning and working your demo account, don't create the bad habit of trying to gamble ahead of a Fed Chair |
| 77 | 00:14:09,570 --> 00:14:17,940 | speaking, it's just like FOMC for a rate announcement, you're gambling, you really have no idea what you're doing. And if it works out, you can tribute that |
| 78 | 00:14:17,970 --> 00:14:29,760 | skill, and if it doesn't work out, you own it, you bought it. Okay, so eat it. So this is the very first setup, and how many times to go back and forth in |
| 79 | 00:14:29,760 --> 00:14:39,030 | here. Look at the range from the high to low each candle. So it's had opportunity to drop back down below the opening price it didn't. Then we had |
| 80 | 00:14:39,030 --> 00:14:50,100 | this small little imbalance here. The market drops back down in Smart Money sees that they dogpile on it and then off to the races we go. Now, contrast this type |
| 81 | 00:14:50,100 --> 00:15:03,570 | of movement versus the Dollar CAD dollar CAD had high impact news. Any $30 CAD had it set up based on the model I teach which one had better price delivery? |
| 82 | 00:15:05,160 --> 00:15:16,140 | Without a doubt, index futures? So I see the folks in the comment section. One of the members is actually a charter member from my very first group to that 16. |
| 83 | 00:15:17,910 --> 00:15:28,890 | asking, Why am I moving away from Forex, I am staying away from Forex, because there's better trading index futures right now. And I'm also concerned that |
| 84 | 00:15:28,890 --> 00:15:37,260 | there may be a black swan event in forex, and I don't want to be a victim of that. Now, that's not to say there won't be a black swan event in the stock |
| 85 | 00:15:37,260 --> 00:15:47,220 | market. Okay, the bottom can fall out of this thing any day now. And literally wreck everyone. There's risk in every market asset class right now, across the |
| 86 | 00:15:47,220 --> 00:15:58,020 | board. I'm trusting this market, because I'm not really trading large positions. In Forex, I can be trading a very large position in index futures, I'm not going |
| 87 | 00:15:58,020 --> 00:16:09,120 | to trade a lot, okay, the largest position I've put on this year has been 10 minis, that's it. That's it, that's the largest position I put on sets $500 per |
| 88 | 00:16:09,180 --> 00:16:25,260 | point. If a big move occurs, it'll hurt but it won't kill me. Versus if I put on millions of dollars of leverage in forex, and then we have a ridiculous gap, or |
| 89 | 00:16:25,260 --> 00:16:36,510 | black swan event that that could really, you know, that could do some damage. And I don't want to do that when I feel my experiences telling me not to be |
| 90 | 00:16:36,510 --> 00:16:44,940 | there. My students know that I've been telling them this, this is not something new and not throwing a curveball, I've been very public about it very candid |
| 91 | 00:16:45,060 --> 00:16:45,690 | about it, |
| 92 | 00:16:47,280 --> 00:16:53,640 | I can still see moves coming, I'm just not putting real money behind it. Like I'm putting real money behind the index futures trading. Okay, so there's a |
| 93 | 00:16:53,640 --> 00:17:01,320 | difference there. A lot of you have complained in Hamden Hall about how oh, I want to see ICT use a Live account trade with my funds. And then when I start |
| 94 | 00:17:01,320 --> 00:17:09,000 | doing it, it's not enough. I'm not going to do acrobatics, to try to please everyone, I'm going to do what I want to do how I want to do it when I want to |
| 95 | 00:17:09,000 --> 00:17:19,830 | do it. And if it doesn't fit you, if it doesn't scratch your itch. I apologize. I'm doing my best to have fun doing what I'm doing. But it's not going to be the |
| 96 | 00:17:19,830 --> 00:17:28,740 | answer for everyone. The back and forth motion of pricing here, it was showing that it has an imbalance here it started to run quickly. And then this is the |
| 97 | 00:17:28,740 --> 00:17:37,980 | first rebalance to that level here. So once it did that I'm buying it. And to draw on liquidity was a buy sell equity here. And that's about it did a lot of |
| 98 | 00:17:37,980 --> 00:17:46,830 | talking in this one. I didn't wanted to be that long. But i Then I saw a lot of folks asking on my trading view, they're sending me messages. And they're also |
| 99 | 00:17:46,830 --> 00:17:57,270 | talking about it in the Twitter, how they wouldn't be able to take this trade here. Because it would be viewed as chasing price in their opinion. And know the |
| 100 | 00:17:57,270 --> 00:18:09,030 | model didn't speak based on what I teach in the YouTube channel. But I'm not again, I'm not limited to that. So I tweeted, I mentioned that we will be |
| 101 | 00:18:09,030 --> 00:18:20,160 | drawing to 3783 in three quarters, basically this level up here. And we watched it unfold today live. But it required me to see the movement above the opening |
| 102 | 00:18:20,160 --> 00:18:31,140 | price here. And there it is. So hopefully you found this one insightful, and do not be discouraged. Because every time a Fed chair comes out, just know I'm not |
| 103 | 00:18:31,140 --> 00:18:43,560 | taking a live trade until there's some talking in the market can manipulate current price sentiment, then I'll look for imbalances and or stop run, and then |
| 104 | 00:18:43,560 --> 00:18:53,070 | I'll engage but otherwise, I'm sitting on my hands patiently. And it might move like I wanted to do and I miss a move. Or I'm thankful that I didn't engage and |
| 105 | 00:18:53,070 --> 00:19:02,580 | then does something that maybe I was looking the opposite to unfold. And then I'm thankful that I didn't engage because these are the rules I've adopted over |
| 106 | 00:19:02,580 --> 00:19:11,640 | the years. So 30 years of doing this stuff, you have to have rules that you have to treat hard and fast and they just rigid, you don't break them. And that's one |
| 107 | 00:19:11,640 --> 00:19:19,590 | of them here for me. And I'm encouraging you all do the same thing. Don't look at these types of minutes like here and say, oh, man, I could have bought that I |
| 108 | 00:19:19,590 --> 00:19:26,970 | would have been better than ICT I would have been what happens if it didn't do that? What happens if it did this type of move the other direction but more |
| 109 | 00:19:26,970 --> 00:19:36,600 | quickly? Yeah, that's what can happen. Okay. It's easy with the hindsight, looking back, say, Oh, I would have been better if I would have did this. But |
| 110 | 00:19:36,600 --> 00:19:45,000 | you weren't doing that when the market was posting and creating the chart. So don't think for a moment that that's the better decision or the right way of |
| 111 | 00:19:45,000 --> 00:19:56,610 | doing it the right way is respect the risk. Trust me when I tell you respect the risk because you can be undone on days like this and we're having one again |
| 112 | 00:19:56,610 --> 00:20:06,000 | tomorrow, with more volatility likely because we have unemployed The data we have other I can't really recall off the top my head what the other factors |
| 113 | 00:20:06,000 --> 00:20:18,240 | were. But there was another 945 data point that's going to come out. And then the 10 o'clock Powell testimony. So the earliest I'll take a trade is probably |
| 114 | 00:20:18,240 --> 00:20:28,440 | going to be five minutes after 10. Okay, between five minutes after 1010 20 That area, that might be where I look to take a trade or I may not do anything |
| 115 | 00:20:28,440 --> 00:20:37,020 | tomorrow, and guess what, that's okay. It may not be okay for you, but it's okay for me because it's my money I'm risking. So until I talk to you tomorrow, Lord |
| 116 | 00:20:37,020 --> 00:20:38,370 | willing, be safe. |