Skip to Content

ICT YT - 2022-06-12 - Live Session

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2022-07-09 07:14
1 00:02:05,820 --> 00:02:08,160 ICT: Are you check or you check?
2 00:02:43,770 --> 00:02:51,990 All right, alright, so you guys should be hearing me, give me a five by five in the chat window on YouTube, that's where I'm looking right now.
3 00:03:14,700 --> 00:03:32,190 Alright, I think we're, I think we're straight. So I was cruising around town a little while ago, talked almost for two hours on Twitter, and wasn't aware that
4 00:03:32,190 --> 00:03:43,230 they had gave me the boot and I wasn't actually broadcasting anymore. So a bit of a bummer, I was on a roll. And I even enjoyed myself. So it's one of those
5 00:03:43,230 --> 00:03:54,300 things that's organic. If it doesn't happen that way, I can't tap back into it. So I'm a little disappointed, because I felt that the things I was saying and
6 00:03:54,300 --> 00:04:04,350 the things I've talked about, and I'm sure I'll muster up another opportunity to do it again, but I can't, I just can't muster the same energy I had earlier,
7 00:04:04,980 --> 00:04:15,090 because it was this over the top. But nonetheless, the things I wanted to talk about as I was talking, what I thought was a live broadcast on Twitter spaces
8 00:04:16,830 --> 00:04:25,530 would have been better suited with a chart. So I kind of want to go in here make sure you guys understood what it is I was trying to lay down for you so that we
9 00:04:25,530 --> 00:04:36,210 can see it, understand it and then at least come away from last week with the better perspective and or at least the proper perspective. So you should be
10 00:04:36,210 --> 00:04:52,200 seeing a daily chart of the E Mini s&p and we are going to talk a little bit about this area here. So we were inside this small little trading range. And
11 00:04:55,230 --> 00:05:05,250 what I was looking for was an opportunity for it to try to run above higher than this high in is hot here, not to kind of like run for the fences. But think of
12 00:05:05,250 --> 00:05:17,130 it kind of like this or here where it just went above and then ripped lower. That's kind of like what I was looking for. But I made a point to bring out the
13 00:05:17,130 --> 00:05:26,880 fact that if we were going to go at all, to this level here 4070, that if it does that, it's not going to go down here and take out those relative equal lows
14 00:05:26,880 --> 00:05:40,020 just to go higher, it's going to go to the fair value gap here. And on Thursday, it ran right through into the fair value got on Twitter, I was outlining on
15 00:05:40,020 --> 00:05:46,740 Friday ahead of the CPI number that came out 830. And it's going to a lower timeframe chart.
16 00:05:55,560 --> 00:06:06,150 So right in here, what I was looking for was a run above, they take out the 4030 level, I mean, drop a line on here, so you can get a feel for what it is I was
17 00:06:08,100 --> 00:06:09,180 making a case for.
18 00:06:17,880 --> 00:06:30,630 I know some of you are flipping out right now. ICT there's a better way to do that. Alright, so anyway, what I was looking for at 830 was a potential run just
19 00:06:30,630 --> 00:06:40,170 a sweep that just a little bit just a bump that and then look for the continuation lower why why would have expected that why was I thinking 4030. And
20 00:06:40,650 --> 00:06:48,810 while I was with my son, he was sitting right next to me. And I said to him, I said, Watch, we were at a one minute chart, and I said we're gonna see this,
21 00:06:49,080 --> 00:06:55,050 take out this short term high here, and I'll drop into lower timeframes and and show it to you. But for now, I just want to show you what I was thinking and
22 00:06:55,050 --> 00:07:04,710 what I was telling him. And where I got wrong. What, and it's a confessional, I got it wrong, but it's okay. And I kind of want to give you the proper
23 00:07:04,710 --> 00:07:13,440 perspective going forward, because a lot of you are doing the things that I did when I first started back in 1992, when you do something wrong, or if you miss
24 00:07:13,440 --> 00:07:21,060 something, and you just beat yourself up. So I'm going to give you a little bit of a coaching session in regards to that. But I want to kind of like paint the
25 00:07:21,060 --> 00:07:29,910 picture, technically what I was outlining to my son. And what I was hinting at on Twitter what I wanted to see, but it didn't materialize. At 830, I want to
26 00:07:29,910 --> 00:07:42,630 see it run up, just bump above here, to knock out that clean level, I didn't think it was likely to stay there and what CPI number could have very easily
27 00:07:42,630 --> 00:07:51,330 this one up there swept that and then did this move here. That's what I was looking for. That's what I was expecting in a conversation that you are not
28 00:07:51,330 --> 00:08:04,080 aware of. But what I was doing, talking with Caleb, ahead of the 830 news on Friday. He got to see that get it wrong there too.
29 00:08:09,390 --> 00:08:25,230 Alright, so 4020 Here's a high of 4022. Okay, I was thinking it's gonna bump above this short term high here. And then at 830. It could spread as far as that
30 00:08:25,230 --> 00:08:34,020 level there. Again, that's the 4030 law. That's the one I tweeted about. And I wanted to see it do this and then look for this type of sell off. And then maybe
31 00:08:34,020 --> 00:08:42,660 if it was available to us catch or some kind of a fair value gap, and then write it down and see what we can get for the morning session. And there's a
32 00:08:42,660 --> 00:08:53,220 continuation in the afternoon session. You know, we'll play it by ear. Well, obviously, you were all watching it with me live and 830 Just right from Jump
33 00:08:53,220 --> 00:09:02,550 Street, just immediate repricing, it just did not wait around did not give a setup didn't get a signal. The model didn't work, because it didn't materialize.
34 00:09:02,700 --> 00:09:10,830 Okay? It doesn't mean that the model is flawed, it doesn't mean that it's never going to work again in the future, which it sometimes will feel like for a new
35 00:09:10,830 --> 00:09:22,200 student. When you have moves that take place on the Twitter spaces this afternoon. I'm really disappointed because I had some really good talking points
36 00:09:22,200 --> 00:09:31,560 that I was even impressed where it came from, I don't know. But I was trying to draw analogies to how I was looking at things when I first started and missing
37 00:09:31,560 --> 00:09:41,640 moves and basically beating myself up when I was a younger man saying I wish I would have done this or why didn't I capture this in my maturity and hopefully
38 00:09:41,670 --> 00:09:51,540 you'll hear this and come away from last week with the better perspective. We had it right in terms of what we're looking for. Okay, so that's an important
39 00:09:51,540 --> 00:09:59,670 thing for you to take away. It's important for you to understand that you most people would have it wrong. They would have the directional wrong the bias wrong
40 00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:09,480 wouldn't know where it was reaching for no understanding whatsoever just chasing price. So I was kind of looking for something specific. But it doesn't, that
41 00:10:09,480 --> 00:10:18,000 doesn't mean that it's going to be a setup every single time and one of these instances like we had on Friday at CPI number, the market is simply repriced
42 00:10:18,000 --> 00:10:27,390 right away, and you can't participate in it. So, you know, talking to my son, one could argue and say, well, ICT, you had it right with this here? No, I
43 00:10:27,390 --> 00:10:36,990 didn't. Because I said to him, while you sit next, and I said, Watch, it can bump this high. And then once it does that, it'll likely spread up into that
44 00:10:36,990 --> 00:10:47,700 4030 level, then go lower. So I was incorrect about the 4030 level publicly with Twitter. But I was also incorrect with my son, who was sitting right here, as we
45 00:10:47,700 --> 00:10:58,920 were talking about what I was looking for real time. It didn't go there as the extra run. So this is not enough for me to say, haha, look how smart I am. He
46 00:10:58,920 --> 00:11:10,170 even he was surprised like, is that real? When this candlestick started breaking hard and repricing aggressively lower? His reaction was like, Wow, is that real,
47 00:11:10,170 --> 00:11:19,050 like he thought TradingView had glitched. It was amusing, obviously, because that was like one of the expressions I had when I was seeing a very fast market
48 00:11:19,050 --> 00:11:28,050 for the first time too. So yeah, it's real. But we're probably not going to get anything. So we'll just sit here and watch and see what happens. But if it just
49 00:11:28,050 --> 00:11:38,130 keeps tearing off lower than we're probably done for today, at least until this afternoon, but if it runs a lot, in the morning, we can't trade an afternoon on
50 00:11:38,130 --> 00:11:45,450 Friday, because it's ended a week, it's pricing in all the daily range in the morning. And now obviously, you're all gonna look at this and say, well, it went
51 00:11:45,450 --> 00:11:56,070 lower, it went lower. I don't want to be in a market that has already done one sidedness heavily at the end of the week. And there's a lot of things in here.
52 00:11:57,540 --> 00:12:11,280 As a younger man, I would have fallen victim to I wanted to see this high right here, and I talked about this on Twitter, I wanted to see it run up into that if
53 00:12:11,280 --> 00:12:20,010 it could do that, then I'd be interested in going short, if it could do in Denver did it. So I lost interest in a tweet, it said I wasn't going to do
54 00:12:20,010 --> 00:12:27,600 anything in the afternoon. And honestly, I'm glad I didn't know that I'm not going to go to the end of the chart here because I kind of want to talk a little
55 00:12:27,600 --> 00:12:36,750 bit about what I was saying on the Twitter space, but unfortunately didn't broadcast entirely. I'm not going to do a two hour thing here. I kind of like
56 00:12:36,780 --> 00:12:49,800 condense it. But if you're new, and you're studying, and you saw that big move or Thursday, and Friday's big moves, and you think to yourself, Wow, I wish I
57 00:12:49,800 --> 00:12:56,370 would have been a part of that. And you're beating yourself up. Don't do that. I did that a lot in the beginning.
58 00:12:57,600 --> 00:13:06,240 What you need to realize is your directional bias was correct. Our directional bias was correct, where we thought the Mark was gonna go, it went and went even
59 00:13:06,240 --> 00:13:19,050 further than that. So that's a plus as well. So if you spend time beating yourself up, and holding a grudge, especially like on a Friday, you miss a move,
60 00:13:19,050 --> 00:13:27,690 and it was a lot of movement. It's real easy for a neophyte, someone new that hasn't been doing this very long to look at a big move like this and say, I
61 00:13:27,690 --> 00:13:35,550 should have been able to be in that. And I'm here to tell you, you shouldn't have you shouldn't have, I wasn't even able to capitalize on it. And I'm not
62 00:13:35,550 --> 00:13:45,780 saying you know, I'm superior. So therefore, you take my word for it, I'm just saying, based on what I've taught, you would not have got any entry here. It was
63 00:13:45,780 --> 00:13:55,050 immediate. If you're watching it live with us. It's done, you've missed it is no, there's no opportunity to get on board. And there's going to be days that
64 00:13:55,140 --> 00:14:01,620 are like that, you're not going to participate. Because it doesn't give you the opportunity to it doesn't mean that your model is flawed, it doesn't mean that
65 00:14:01,620 --> 00:14:09,270 you are not good at trading, it doesn't mean that you're not going to find one in the future, because you will. But you have to understand that there are going
66 00:14:09,270 --> 00:14:17,460 to be times that are simply just not going to be available for you to be a participant on the move, and you can't be upset. And I was trying to give an
67 00:14:17,460 --> 00:14:27,060 analogy and I'm not sure if it made its way through the broadcast on Twitter this afternoon or not. But I do want an idea that if you have a favorite band or
68 00:14:27,060 --> 00:14:36,900 artist that you want to go see in concert, and you're looking forward to that. And you have your all of your your hopes set on listening to them, you know,
69 00:14:36,900 --> 00:14:43,680 watch them perform. Maybe you're going with your spouse or or significant other and friends and you're really antsy and excited about going and it's a month
70 00:14:43,680 --> 00:14:54,630 away or a week away or whatever it is is in the future. And you have all of your hopes set on having a great time. Are you concerned about all those missed
71 00:14:54,630 --> 00:15:04,890 opportunities? Were they a same band that did the same act that you're waiting to see In your local town, are you upset that you missed every single tour date?
72 00:15:05,160 --> 00:15:17,100 And venue they did prior to the one you waited for? Now, nobody does. I mean, you can appreciate me, I wish I was listening to them today or right now. But I
73 00:15:17,100 --> 00:15:27,030 want you to kind of think about trades just like that. Okay, it's these things repeat. And they're scheduled your economic calendar, what is that we can use
74 00:15:27,030 --> 00:15:37,380 economy day, or you can use the Forex factory if you're trading Forex, like Forex, factories, economic calendar, I like that format. It's it's real easy to
75 00:15:37,500 --> 00:15:46,050 understand, and students that are brand new, they can see it. A common day is pretty basic, what I'm looking for, okay, this is where your notes for those
76 00:15:46,050 --> 00:15:57,900 that are new. When I'm looking at price action opportunities, I'm literally looking two, sometimes three weeks ahead at the economic calendar. Because it's
77 00:15:57,900 --> 00:16:06,660 like a TV, God, and anyone that's been around for a while, like me. Back in the day, they had a TV Guide that your mom and dad would usually ask you to reach
78 00:16:06,660 --> 00:16:13,170 for when you're in a line at the grocery store said grab that TV guy, we need to, why did they need it, they want to see what programs are coming on for the
79 00:16:13,170 --> 00:16:19,320 week, and they want to see what time they're there movies of the week would be on my channel. And they would make their whole week around that. And just like
80 00:16:19,350 --> 00:16:26,220 women, that would be housewives, they would try to get all their work done to make sure they could sit in front of the, you know, I'm saying this because my
81 00:16:26,220 --> 00:16:35,820 mom did some of this stuff, too. They want to be in front of the TV where they can watch their general hospital soap opera, As the World Turns, you know, all
82 00:16:35,820 --> 00:16:48,780 those programs are enticements for you to be in front of that box. Well, the calendar, economic calendar, that's your TV Guide for trades. What do you look
83 00:16:48,780 --> 00:16:58,680 for? You look for medium impact or high impact news events. Because what that will do, it'll inspire a lot of activity and volatility in the marketplace. So I
84 00:16:58,680 --> 00:17:05,220 call them volatility injections. They are just venues, opportunities that are scheduled by day and time.
85 00:17:06,870 --> 00:17:18,300 So that's the first factor that causes us to be interested in looking for a bias time. Then price. Okay, so time and price. So what does that mean? Do I take
86 00:17:18,300 --> 00:17:28,920 trades on days that do not have high impact or medium impact news I have, I just don't place a lot of emphasis on maximizing the leverage that would otherwise be
87 00:17:29,310 --> 00:17:37,590 around a day to I'm anticipating a lot of movement. And that would be attributed to and associated with medium impact or high impact news events that are on
88 00:17:37,590 --> 00:17:43,710 economic calendar. And they're already scheduled. They're not just materializing. Okay, you're not going to be surprised by these things. They're
89 00:17:43,710 --> 00:17:57,150 on the schedule, months ahead. And you plan like a professional to participate and engage price action on these days. Now, just because of that you're looking
90 00:17:57,150 --> 00:18:08,880 for that event to unfold. And it may transpire. Obviously, it might not. Sometimes the news event doesn't see a subsequent price action move, that would
91 00:18:08,880 --> 00:18:21,330 be either in your favor or opposing sometimes it's just a dud, like nonfarm payroll years ago, they used to be very animated and lots of movement. And you
92 00:18:21,330 --> 00:18:30,750 know, everybody would want to trade it. And then in recent years, there's many times it's been very lackluster. But that's a high impact news driver, but
93 00:18:30,750 --> 00:18:41,130 because it's uncertain, and they use it a lot to upset the sentiment for the monthly range. It's the first Friday, typically of every month. And if you look
94 00:18:41,130 --> 00:18:52,620 at what they do with that day, and you're using a higher timeframe bias, they use it many times upset short term sentiment, but still keep long term bias. And
95 00:18:52,620 --> 00:18:58,680 I'll talk a little bit more about that, because it's a little bit longer topic than I can squeezing this little video. I promise I didn't want to go along with
96 00:18:58,680 --> 00:19:10,410 this one. But the importance is is not to beat yourself up about last Friday. You want to make sure that in your journal, you record it not in such a way
97 00:19:10,410 --> 00:19:23,070 where Oh, man, this sucks. I suck. I can't ever get this right. Because the model didn't perform. It didn't give you the setup. There's no opportunity here.
98 00:19:24,450 --> 00:19:33,120 It is what it is. It left the train station without you and you just gonna have to get out of the way and just watch it sail away and say okay, you know, it
99 00:19:33,120 --> 00:19:39,600 went in the right direction. There was a lot of movement. It was something that you study, and you journal it, but you don't journal it in a way where it's
100 00:19:39,600 --> 00:19:49,050 negative like Man, this is sucks or didn't hit my order. Maybe you had a limit order. And it just went real close to yours. Maybe you weren't looking for 4030
101 00:19:49,050 --> 00:19:55,800 like me, maybe you're looking for something just a little bit above over here and it didn't quite get to it and then it ran away. I've had so many trades do
102 00:19:55,800 --> 00:20:06,930 that. I've had so many trades do that and you can't get mad about it, you need to be appreciating the fact that you're looking at it going in the right
103 00:20:06,930 --> 00:20:15,120 direction and reaching for the right targets. That's how you stay motivated. That's how you stay on a high. You don't want to start feeding yourself toxic
104 00:20:15,120 --> 00:20:25,560 thinking, and beating yourself. Basically beating yourself up emotionally and psychologically, with hateful, negative self talk, that's complaining to
105 00:20:25,560 --> 00:20:33,150 yourself, or going on Twitter and complaining, saying, you know, I'm getting tired of this, I got stopped out, you know, and when to my target Mo, when I see
106 00:20:33,150 --> 00:20:41,910 that. I want to shake the person by the lapels, because, okay, you have all that energy, you want to go on to social media and complain about what didn't work
107 00:20:41,910 --> 00:20:51,330 for you? Why didn't you take that energy and go back in and reenter? Why go on, what are you expecting, when you go on social media, no one's going to coddle
108 00:20:51,330 --> 00:21:03,600 you, no one's going to look down and say, Ah, that's too bad. That's not how it works. Nobody does that when I'm losing money. The broker is sending me a get
109 00:21:03,600 --> 00:21:11,820 well soon card, you know, because I just took a loss, they're not going to do that for you either. So you got to be your best cheerleader, you have to do that
110 00:21:11,820 --> 00:21:21,120 yourself. And the way you do that is stay on the right side with positive self talk, you always look for the silver lining and everything. That way, it
111 00:21:21,120 --> 00:21:29,820 encourages you to keep going, because there's going to be lots of opportunities for you to feel discouraged. But this is not one of them. This is not a took a
112 00:21:29,820 --> 00:21:40,260 loss. This is not well, I didn't get the direction, right. It didn't go where I was expecting it to. It did all those things and more. But it simply just didn't
113 00:21:40,260 --> 00:21:48,750 give you an opportunity to get in. And that is going to repeat if you're gonna be trading for 30 years or longer. And you're gonna have scores like I have
114 00:21:48,750 --> 00:22:00,180 scores and scores, like dozens on dozens of opportunities where I had it, right. But I couldn't get an entry, and it just runs off. And you can't chase it, you
115 00:22:00,180 --> 00:22:02,160 cannot do that. So
116 00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:14,010 one of the things I'm going to talk about this week on the YouTube channel, because the menu is directional bias, and money management. And that's basically
117 00:22:14,010 --> 00:22:24,720 our end the teaching part of this mentorship. Now I know some of you are upset thinking oh, no, you don't end it yet. The teachings are done this week. Okay.
118 00:22:25,770 --> 00:22:34,650 It doesn't mean I'm stopping new video production or teaching in general, I'm just saying that the model will be done this week. So that way, you'll have
119 00:22:34,650 --> 00:22:44,070 everything you need to utilize it study and work with it going forward. It's not a limp. It's not an endless type of thing where I can just keep going on and on
120 00:22:44,070 --> 00:22:51,840 and on, and adding things to it. That's not what the point of this model at all, I wanted to give you something that's simple. And I've given you enough time for
121 00:22:51,840 --> 00:23:00,210 you to go back through, look at months of data. And for those that have done that aggressively. You've had several months walking forward. So you're kind of
122 00:23:00,210 --> 00:23:11,790 like in that sweet spot where you now you have to consider okay, how would you manage the trades and manage the risk in your demo account? And how would you
123 00:23:11,790 --> 00:23:20,640 utilize the daily bias? When are you looking for it to be bullish? What would negate that? When are you looking forward to be bearish? What would negate that?
124 00:23:21,000 --> 00:23:29,910 And also what, in my mind what helps me change my bias because you watch that recently? So I get a lot of questions about that. And if there was one thing
125 00:23:29,910 --> 00:23:39,390 that I get questioned the most is teach me how to know if it's going to be up day or down day. And one of the things I want to kind of like, forced upon you
126 00:23:39,390 --> 00:23:53,460 is you don't want to get into a trap of trying to predict that closing price. You can't do that yet. Okay. It's something that will be a fault of doing the
127 00:23:53,460 --> 00:24:00,870 things I'm telling you do and spending enough time doing it. You'll figure that part out. Now I'm gonna give you rules and we give you things that are general
128 00:24:00,870 --> 00:24:09,930 rules and principles that will lead into that end result of you knowing that, but I want you to know before we get into those lessons this week, you watching
129 00:24:09,930 --> 00:24:20,730 these videos this week, and saying okay, I see what he says he's given me rules and general principles. That is not understanding how to do it. That's how to go
130 00:24:20,730 --> 00:24:33,420 in and study it. Because it's an experience thing. Okay, someone that's really, really good at trading. And I'm not specifically talking about me in exclusion,
131 00:24:33,780 --> 00:24:47,850 or exclusively rather, I'm saying that it's something that every profitable trader would have a hard time articulating. Where you lean heavily on
132 00:24:47,850 --> 00:24:55,650 experience, you just know because you've been doing it. And it's not a satisfying answer for someone that's new, or especially someone that's a
133 00:24:55,650 --> 00:25:02,220 hardline, really pushy type of student like, I need this. I need this. I need to know that right now. You don't need to know that right now, there's so many
134 00:25:02,220 --> 00:25:11,010 other things that you need to know. And the things that I see when people are doing that is they need to get discipline, self control. Because if you're
135 00:25:11,010 --> 00:25:19,170 feeling rushed or panicked, you're never going to learn this property like that. And it's easy to look at things like on Friday, and see that movement and say,
136 00:25:19,170 --> 00:25:31,260 oh, man, I should have been a part of that. No, you shouldn't have, you didn't have a setup, you didn't give it to you, it just ran away. So it will be very
137 00:25:31,260 --> 00:25:42,720 easy for someone to talk themselves out of wanting to take the proper trade after missing a move like this, because they see how much it moved. They're
138 00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:52,260 chomping at the bit on Monday to do something new. Because they're mad, they're revenge driven now. And one of the things that I don't want to talk about here,
139 00:25:52,260 --> 00:25:59,340 because I'm going to obviously, try to do it in another teaching, because I don't have the energy. Now, I've kind of like, use it all up a little while ago.
140 00:26:01,020 --> 00:26:11,940 One of the things that you're bringing into your trading is the toxic mental and psychological baggage. Like you'd need something to work for you to feel good.
141 00:26:11,970 --> 00:26:20,730 Like to give you a high, a little bump to get you through your job, your relationship, life in general.
142 00:26:22,080 --> 00:26:30,060 And you might feel like you're in a rut, and you feel like these trades, if they're winners is the only source of you feeling like you're accomplishing
143 00:26:30,060 --> 00:26:39,210 anything. And you need to change that perspective. Because if that's how you feel, you're going to look at your development, your study, and the practice
144 00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:47,670 sessions, the back testing, the back testing is going to be grueling for people that are impatient. But that's the part you got to get good at. And love doing
145 00:26:47,700 --> 00:26:59,160 because for testing is just that fast. Okay, so you have to understand what these movements look like. And what sets up repeatedly in time in terms of time
146 00:26:59,160 --> 00:27:09,060 and price. And by submitting to that you won't be upset about missing this move. I'm not upset about it. You shouldn't be upset about. So there's no reason for
147 00:27:09,060 --> 00:27:17,190 you to be tweeting or talking amongst yourselves in social media or beating yourself up over the weekend thinking oh, I wish I took that was a big move.
148 00:27:17,940 --> 00:27:26,700 Yeah, there's a lot of big news, you're gonna miss lots of them. I've missed lots of them too. And you can still find money in the future. There's no, no
149 00:27:26,700 --> 00:27:37,950 limit to how many more new trades they're going to be. But this is a limited experience. You've experienced it. Log it, journal it, don't beat yourself up
150 00:27:38,040 --> 00:27:46,620 with negative talk about it. Don't give it any energy to be a reason for you to go gamble on Monday, or tonight. And little while when the market starts
151 00:27:46,620 --> 00:27:56,580 trading. Just say okay, it moved a lot. So we'll have to wait for the next one. So let's go up to a daily chart. And I'm gonna bring this to a close
152 00:28:04,050 --> 00:28:14,640 Alright, so we have Thursday and Friday is trading here. My initial interest was this fair value gap. And here. We have gone through that now. So we have this
153 00:28:14,670 --> 00:28:24,870 Friday, price leg? In my opinion, it's really extended, does it mean it needs to come back? Does it mean it's oversold? So it has to go up? No. I think it's in a
154 00:28:24,870 --> 00:28:36,690 hurry to go below this low. I think it's wanting to go there. And probably, you know ended up 3700s Right away. I'm not saying that. But I think it may be
155 00:28:36,690 --> 00:28:46,830 wanting to go down here because we failed to do anything as a fake attempt to get above these highs. It's just really, really heavy. And it's been in a hurry
156 00:28:46,830 --> 00:28:57,630 to get there where Thursday's high here. We had that little bit of a movement here. So yeah, we opened and traded up created like a short term little intraday
157 00:28:57,630 --> 00:29:09,480 high, and then moved away from that. Notice that it doesn't have that on Friday. It's just consolidating and then rolled over. NASDAQ was the same way. So it
158 00:29:09,480 --> 00:29:21,120 didn't give us any real manipulation. It just was held in a consolidation in the lower timeframes. Let's go into a 15 minute timeframe. Michael just put 15 in.
159 00:29:24,000 --> 00:29:34,020 So we dropped lower and we did all this consolidation in here when I see this and I have a bias that's bearish. Okay, this is what I want you to hear me loud
160 00:29:34,020 --> 00:29:44,190 and clear and journalists, okay. On Friday, I would have played this the same way. No matter how many times you put me in from the chart, I would have
161 00:29:44,190 --> 00:29:52,350 expected a run above that short term high. These relatively equal highs here, create a short term high there and then sell off. I would have done that every
162 00:29:52,350 --> 00:30:02,460 single time. Like Groundhog's Day, the movie I will be doing the same way I would not do anything differently. Why because we have already moved lower, and
163 00:30:02,460 --> 00:30:11,130 we're consolidating the bias is bearish, it's going to go lower, it's likely to expand lower. But what's occurring in the morning at 830? The CPI number? Do I
164 00:30:11,130 --> 00:30:21,480 know what the CPI number or data says? Or said on Friday right now, at the time of this livestream? No. Do I care? Absolutely not. Loop, don't care. I never
165 00:30:21,480 --> 00:30:31,590 looked at the reports information, I could care less. All I know is this markets going to do? Whatever the market is going to do? It doesn't lean on the data.
166 00:30:31,770 --> 00:30:40,710 And if you watch the data, and you study it, there's going to be times when the market does something that's completely opposed to what the fundamentals would
167 00:30:40,710 --> 00:30:52,380 suggest is likely to occur. And I lost lots of money doing that. So to avoid all the insanity and trying to figure out and interpret what the information is
168 00:30:52,380 --> 00:31:00,120 going to be when they release it. Because that's a gamble. You don't know what's what's going to happen. The market is going to reprice, look what it did on May
169 00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:13,530 30. I've seen that happen when the market would have been typically seeing the data as bullish, and it performed like that. So you can't just assume for a
170 00:31:13,530 --> 00:31:23,040 moment that, Oh, this guy is talking to his ass. He's He's saying, you know, the fundamentals don't matter? No, they do. They do. But during these reports, you
171 00:31:23,040 --> 00:31:34,290 have to be very careful that you don't get caught up in trying to read the tea leaves versus treat it like I'm telling you to do these events that are medium
172 00:31:34,290 --> 00:31:40,890 impact or high impact. They are volatility injections, that means there's going to be excitement brought into the marketplace. So if there's going to be a lot
173 00:31:40,890 --> 00:31:50,250 of excitement, what are they going to do typically manipulate the the sentiment on traders. So if it's consolidated like this, and I'm bearish, you were
174 00:31:50,250 --> 00:31:58,620 bearish, we're all looking for it to go lower? Isn't it reasonable for them to want to take it up first, knockout, anyone that's already short. Anyone that was
175 00:31:58,620 --> 00:32:06,480 lucky enough to be short from every here, wherever their stop loss be because it sure isn't up here. It's going to be right above here. And they're probably
176 00:32:06,480 --> 00:32:17,820 thanking their lucky stars, thinking that double tops work. And that's why that myth is so prevalent in this industry, because these instances where it does
177 00:32:17,850 --> 00:32:30,240 work sometimes. But in my approach to trading, I see these things fail more times than they work. And that's why I'm telling you placed in this situation at
178 00:32:30,240 --> 00:32:42,660 838 15. Ahead of the CPI number, I would play this idea and anticipate that run to 4030 every single time and I would never deviate from that strategy. That's
179 00:32:42,660 --> 00:32:45,870 what I would expect. There's nothing else here that I'd be interested in.
180 00:32:47,250 --> 00:32:55,860 So if that's if that's the way I'm interpreting it, that's the way I would do it every single time placed in front of it. Why would I be upset about missing that
181 00:32:55,860 --> 00:33:03,810 move? I'm not because I've been in this game long enough to know that these things will repeat the things that I'm looking for that manipulation, that
182 00:33:03,810 --> 00:33:13,860 little subtle Judas swing that fake out move that gets everybody thinking it's going the other way, just that offset, get the shorts out, before the real move
183 00:33:13,860 --> 00:33:24,030 comes. There's been lots of times where it does this very thing. And it's okay, I'm still going to do it the same way each time. It's not a losing trade, I
184 00:33:24,030 --> 00:33:35,760 missed an opportunity, what opportunity to be in a move that went lower, but I did not miss a trade. You didn't miss a trade, because the setup didn't form. So
185 00:33:37,620 --> 00:33:45,330 I hope you understand what I'm getting at here. I don't want you having some kind of a episode where you feel like you should have been able to be a
186 00:33:45,330 --> 00:33:53,550 participant in that movie, because there's nothing in here saying you should have period. Okay. So I think that is going to be it. I'm looking for lower
187 00:33:53,550 --> 00:34:06,210 prices. In fact, I'm watching to see when we open up later on. I'm going to see if we get down. Okay, if we get down, I'm going to look for the gap to obviously
188 00:34:06,210 --> 00:34:14,310 try to make an attempt to fill it if it tries to fill it but doesn't completely close it. And let me slow down here because I know some of you don't know what
189 00:34:14,310 --> 00:34:28,290 I'm talking about here. When the Market Week begins later on this evening, when this market opens, my expectation is it's going to gap open from where we closed
190 00:34:28,290 --> 00:34:37,410 here on this candle here. I'm thinking it might get down below where the low was on Friday. So wherever it starts trading that gap, that's what we refer to as
191 00:34:37,410 --> 00:34:47,550 the weekly opening gap. It might not I might be wrong. Okay. It might start up here a little bit inside of Friday's range. I don't think it will. I think it
192 00:34:47,550 --> 00:34:57,600 would be better for it to gap down and then if it does, but doesn't take out that low. Here's what I'm expecting gapping down lower at the open. There's a
193 00:34:57,600 --> 00:35:04,830 gap that will be there obviously, if it goes up and fills it in, then I would expect it to resume going lower and try to attack that low working towards that
194 00:35:04,830 --> 00:35:17,550 going into your Monday and Tuesday's trading. If we get down, we start to close it in, leave it open, and then go lower overnight, I would expect that gap to be
195 00:35:17,790 --> 00:35:31,860 New York sessions objective to try to get to it again. Now, when critical trolls hear things like that, oh, he doesn't know what he's doing. He doesn't know what
196 00:35:31,860 --> 00:35:40,260 he wants. Now, I gave you the various scenarios that I would play and how I would play them. Okay, it's not plan a plan B, when it works. This is one smart
197 00:35:40,260 --> 00:35:50,790 See, I'm telling you exactly what I'm looking for. before it happens. So that way, you can study with that mindset going forward. Okay, do you understand that
198 00:35:50,790 --> 00:35:57,270 because it's not me saying plan a plan B, let's sit back and watch you see these people on Twitter. They have a squiggly line that goes up and they have a
199 00:35:57,270 --> 00:36:08,520 squiggly line going down? What is that? I'm not doing that. I'm telling you very specific things. These are scenarios that I will trade them, okay, I will put
200 00:36:08,520 --> 00:36:17,520 money in these things. I'm not talking about drawing long lines, and then clap my hands after it's done it, I'm looking to put real money into this. So I'm
201 00:36:17,520 --> 00:36:23,700 telling you beforehand, what I would be looking for because I know that's why he showed up. You're doing a live session. But he talking about what he's going to
202 00:36:23,700 --> 00:36:32,490 do the markets not trading right now. But I just put myself out there and told you what I would be looking for. These are things that I would be interested in
203 00:36:32,760 --> 00:36:41,910 taking live trades with with my own money. Should you do that? No. Because you don't know what the setup would be. That makes me push the button, you just have
204 00:36:41,910 --> 00:36:52,380 the framework. You don't have every small little piece that would push a button for me. But I want you to understand that those scenarios that will be obviously
205 00:36:52,380 --> 00:37:00,030 this was recorded. So it will be on the YouTube channel. Go back and listen to it, I might have it wrong. But if those situations don't form, guess what, I
206 00:37:00,030 --> 00:37:11,970 don't have either a losing trade, because I won't engage without it. You understand? That's logic. Okay. I'm looking at it with this narrative in mind. I
207 00:37:11,970 --> 00:37:20,790 believe that the market is going to try to get to this low and lower. That's what I believe it's trying to do. Why do I believe that? Because we went below
208 00:37:20,790 --> 00:37:30,780 this fair value gap. We're well below it. Can it retrace? A little bit? Yes. Do I think it's gonna go back above Friday's high before it goes to that low? No.
209 00:37:32,190 --> 00:37:36,510 Can it go into some of this Friday range before it goes down to that low? Yes.
210 00:37:37,860 --> 00:37:47,940 What makes that unlikely. If we get down, try to go higher, but just fill the gap and start pressing lower again, then I don't think we're going to need to go
211 00:37:47,940 --> 00:37:56,280 any higher than just filling the gap. And again, that's assuming. And I may be incorrect here. But I don't do a lot of Sunday trading. But I'm interested
212 00:37:56,280 --> 00:38:11,190 tonight, because of what we're seeing in this market. They're rapidly repricing this lower. Okay. And my thinking is this. They know that that low here,
213 00:38:11,400 --> 00:38:18,780 everybody's expecting what I'm talking about, too. I'm not the only one that sees that low. You see it, everybody else sees it too. Even people that look at
214 00:38:18,780 --> 00:38:26,730 Support Resistance think that that low is interesting right now, too. But they may look at that as if it goes down here, I'm going to buy it. I'm not
215 00:38:26,730 --> 00:38:36,090 interested in trying to do that. I'm looking at that low as a target, and something below it. Because right now, before we open on Sunday trading and
216 00:38:36,090 --> 00:38:48,420 start a brand new financial week, the only data I have is where we closed on Friday. So if I had just that much information, I am forecasting and
217 00:38:48,420 --> 00:38:54,330 forecasting, if you don't know what you're doing can get you in a lot of trouble. Because it will create an opportunity for you to marry the vein. That
218 00:38:54,330 --> 00:39:06,600 means it can only do those things. And that's it. And that can get somebody in trouble as a new trader. So I'm thinking since that low is the obvious next
219 00:39:06,630 --> 00:39:17,040 objective or draw on liquidity? Do I think we're going back up to this high before that lows taken out? No. Do you see what I'm doing here? I'm reasoning
220 00:39:17,040 --> 00:39:27,720 with myself. I'm lying. The analysts talk to the trader. You're a gambler. You're a trader and you're an analyst. The analyst has to control the trader and
221 00:39:27,720 --> 00:39:37,860 a trader needs to ignore the gambler, your three peat, your three people on one as a traitor, like you have this capability of derailing yourself as a gambler.
222 00:39:39,450 --> 00:39:46,890 You are also the person that's going to be successful when you listen to the analyst, the analyst. If they had been properly trained, they will keep you out
223 00:39:46,890 --> 00:39:57,780 of harm's way. They will keep you from overtraining. That's the source of logic. That's the reason the voice of reason, if you will, that should be in your head
224 00:39:57,780 --> 00:40:08,700 echoing saying don't do this. To focus on this, while I'm looking at this, and I'm reasoning with myself, saying, Okay, is it easy for me to justify going
225 00:40:08,700 --> 00:40:17,490 short? And is it hard for me to justify going long? Now some of you are gonna look at it and say, well look at this low and this high, isn't that market in a
226 00:40:17,490 --> 00:40:31,590 discount? Why wouldn't you expect it to go up? This low is a target. Now, nothing here, coming down this deep to me, bolsters a lot of confidence to be a
227 00:40:31,590 --> 00:40:40,590 buyer. Is it a discount between this low and this high? Yes, that part is true. But when you're bearish, and you're anticipating a low being taken out, it's
228 00:40:40,590 --> 00:40:48,240 going to be in a discount before it takes it out. So you can't just look at premium discount. And you can't just look at market structure, you got to look
229 00:40:48,240 --> 00:40:59,940 at narrative, what is it in a hurry to get to, in two days, look how much ground that's covered. It's trying to get down to that low, it can get closer to it and
230 00:40:59,940 --> 00:41:11,040 not go down into it. In other words, when you say that correctly, it can go more lower than it has, obviously, and still not take out that low. I don't need it
231 00:41:11,040 --> 00:41:19,980 to take out that low. Notice that it's just the drawn liquidity. I have ranged between Friday's close. And that low, there's opportunity between there. Do I
232 00:41:19,980 --> 00:41:32,730 need that low to be taken out to be profitable? No. Do you see what I just did there? I freed you up of perfection. There's so many times when I was first
233 00:41:32,730 --> 00:41:43,380 fleshing out these models, I needed this load to be violated and taken out for me to consider success, not taking out any partials the amount along the way. I
234 00:41:43,380 --> 00:41:52,170 learned that lesson the hard way. Those were times where I was upset because I had 1000s and 1000s of dollars per contract and profit. If I just would have
235 00:41:52,170 --> 00:42:03,390 taken some of it off. I would have been profitable. But I was holding for my objective. My target. No, no, no, no, no. Notice I don't talk about we're going
236 00:42:03,390 --> 00:42:14,820 to hold for our target. Singular. No, I teach you to view the market with a draw on liquidity. If that range between where the market is and where you enter, and
237 00:42:14,820 --> 00:42:24,270 withdrawal liquidity is that range, you better have multiple places to take profits in partials what if you only have one contract ICT, then you have to be
238 00:42:24,270 --> 00:42:26,610 aggressive about moving your stop balls. That's how you handle that
239 00:42:27,329 --> 00:42:38,939 need to lock in something, you have to do that. If you don't, you are going to fail at this. Because you'll have hit and miss success. And then then what will
240 00:42:39,029 --> 00:42:50,309 happen is you'll go into a period of you're just a breakeven trader, and breakeven traders are dangerous. That's a that's a moment in your development
241 00:42:50,339 --> 00:42:59,309 you want to strive for, but you don't want to stay there too long. Because the longer you stay there, you have a tendency to do stupid things. Take Gamble's
242 00:42:59,879 --> 00:43:12,059 trade without stop loss over leverage over trade, do more trades and you're supposed to or you missed the move. And you're mad at that market. And you
243 00:43:12,059 --> 00:43:20,819 abandon it and you go to something else in the first chart you open up to I'm going to do this then I was short Japanese yen, screw it, I'm gonna go by
244 00:43:20,849 --> 00:43:32,789 Swissy. There was nothing to get you in that trade except for anger. Why? Because your breakeven you're not finding profitability. So the goal is you want
245 00:43:32,789 --> 00:43:42,689 to get to building yourself to the point where you're a breakeven trader, that's the first goal. Because if you're there, at least you're not hemorrhaging money
246 00:43:42,929 --> 00:43:54,089 in your demo. But if you don't do the right things, while you're in a breakeven Traders Mindset and performance, the longer you stay there, the more likely it
247 00:43:54,089 --> 00:44:03,839 is for you to do bad things. And that's where bad habits form. So that's the reason why I teach the way I teach. That's why I tell you, the drawn liquidity
248 00:44:03,839 --> 00:44:13,709 doesn't need to be treated to and that's where the part is that I say you don't have to be right to be profitable. You have to be reframe setups, that even if
249 00:44:13,709 --> 00:44:24,929 it doesn't get to where you think it's probably going you can still be profitable by taking partials and going along the way that way. Nobody really
250 00:44:24,929 --> 00:44:33,899 teaches this way. Nobody thinks of it like that. And it's why my opinion that's why a majority of traders lose money because they don't know how to make money.
251 00:44:34,589 --> 00:44:42,359 There's many times there's many trades, you've probably been in it, especially for those treated with live money. And I'm not going to look I haven't looked at
252 00:44:42,359 --> 00:44:52,139 the chat right now. But I'm going to look at it now if you have been trading with live money ever. Have you had dozens of trades where you were in them and
253 00:44:52,139 --> 00:44:59,369 you were profitable, but you didn't take anything off? And you were looking for your target to hit or your stop loss and it turned on you and you never had an
254 00:44:59,369 --> 00:45:01,409 opportunity to close Was it put a number one in that?
255 00:45:26,429 --> 00:45:34,259 So you can see there's a lot of, there's a lot of people that's familiar with this. So if you haven't gotten to the point where you've ever really put live
256 00:45:34,259 --> 00:45:40,469 money in, and I'm not suggesting that you should, the only thing I'm teaching you is how to read price. But I'm going to tell you how you're probably going to
257 00:45:40,469 --> 00:45:52,019 hurt yourself. If you hold fast to it has to go to your target. It has to go to draw on liquidity, it has to do that before I take anything off. You're being
258 00:45:52,019 --> 00:46:00,149 foolish. Because there are people out there that claim to be smart, they claim to be profitable, they claim to know everything and everything. And they say
259 00:46:00,149 --> 00:46:05,819 partials are stupid. That's the stupidest thing I've ever heard. Because when you're the perpetrator, there's an initial risk to reward ratio, which I don't
260 00:46:05,819 --> 00:46:15,839 even consider all that important. Knowing what I'm teaching you. You can trade and do well with one the one. In fact, listen to this one, this is going to
261 00:46:15,839 --> 00:46:28,769 break the internet. You can trade with a negative R. That means you could have twice the risk to make no risk $2 and make one. Oh, now I see it. I'm turning
262 00:46:28,769 --> 00:46:37,169 the stream off. Now. This guy's he's stupid. He's talking about his rear end. No, no, no, no, no, no. I do that all the time. With Caleb, I show him all the
263 00:46:37,169 --> 00:46:48,659 time. Don't be afraid of that. Because if you know what you're looking for, you have to have a stop. Does that two to one? You're risking two to make one. Is
264 00:46:48,659 --> 00:47:04,289 that 2% of your account? No. So what are you afraid of? That's how you train yourself. The you stop losses. You don't have a big risk. You grow into a
265 00:47:04,289 --> 00:47:14,159 tighter stop loss. But don't think that you're gonna watch these Yahoo's out there to say, I'm trading with a two pips stop loss. And you should to know, you
266 00:47:14,159 --> 00:47:24,089 don't even know where the markets going next. So how are you going to be that precise to enter with the volatility we have today? And you're going to use less
267 00:47:24,089 --> 00:47:34,889 than 10 pips and your new developing student as a stop loss. No, no, no, no, no, no, you're asking to fail. And anybody who tells you that, they are insisting
268 00:47:34,979 --> 00:47:45,269 you to look at them as a mental giant. And that's all that is. It's an ego trip. Okay. It used to be men wanted to show how big they were not to be crude. But
269 00:47:45,269 --> 00:47:56,939 now they want to show how little they are. It's, it's all about size and measurement. It's not that at all, I'm in this game, not to look smart, because
270 00:47:56,939 --> 00:48:07,499 I'm not. I'm not trying to be a junk, a mental giant. I'm not, I'm in this business to make money. That's why I'm here. I only touch these charts because
271 00:48:07,709 --> 00:48:16,319 they make me money. I'm not interested in anything else. That's it, I'm not trying to sign up the next guy, I'm not trying to be better than the next guy or
272 00:48:16,319 --> 00:48:24,809 smarter than the next guy. I'm just trying to make more money than I had yesterday. That's it. That's all I'm doing. And that's how I teach people to go
273 00:48:24,809 --> 00:48:35,789 into these studies to improve each day. And if you do these types of things, over time, you're gonna get there. But if you break those rules, and you develop
274 00:48:35,789 --> 00:48:46,649 bad habits, you're not going to get there. I don't, I don't sugarcoat it, I'm not gonna lie to you and say, you're all gonna get it, you're not. Because the
275 00:48:46,649 --> 00:48:57,749 discipline that's required, is going to prevent the majority of you that will find themselves unable to see this consistently done by your own hands, because
276 00:48:57,749 --> 00:49:08,849 you're rushing to do the trading versus relaxing, and focusing on how to read price, and interpret where to price of the market you're looking at is going to
277 00:49:08,849 --> 00:49:20,729 next. When you do that for weeks and months, you will by default, see how these things repeat over and over again. That is the only thing that will quench your
278 00:49:20,729 --> 00:49:31,589 desire to do something right away or satisfy that impulse to hate the fact that you dismiss the move. So you don't know what it feels like to know what these do
279 00:49:32,399 --> 00:49:41,279 every single week, every single month. For years. You don't have that yet. You're all beginning that. And once you have that under your belt, that
280 00:49:41,279 --> 00:49:48,749 experience, you lean on it and you don't feel impulsive about anything that you're doing and if you feel impulsive or rush to do anything at all while
281 00:49:48,749 --> 00:49:56,249 you're trading, that's probably a mistake ready to be made. Unless you're closing the trade and you're protecting yourself money, your money wise.
282 00:49:56,849 --> 00:50:05,939 Anything other than that anything done quickly. It is a guarantee that you're making a mistake, you're going to regret it, whatever you're doing quickly,
283 00:50:06,480 --> 00:50:14,310 you're going to regret that unless it's preserving your equity or getting out of the initial risk that is, you know, only on initial, but the risk that you see
284 00:50:14,310 --> 00:50:23,910 coming right at you while being in the market. That's the only time you have my permission to be quick and immediate about anything is concentrate, if it
285 00:50:23,910 --> 00:50:32,340 doesn't feel right, it may be at a loss. Who cares? wrestle with it once you're out of the marketplace? Because if you feel like you've done something
286 00:50:32,370 --> 00:50:44,820 incorrectly, and you sit there, and you hem and haw over that. Imagine 830 On Friday, you're long, and you feel that, what are you gonna feel 10 minutes
287 00:50:44,820 --> 00:50:58,170 later? Because you didn't use it. You didn't use a stop. In 10 minutes, you've dusted your account? Less than how's that gonna feel versus uncomfortable? What
288 00:50:58,170 --> 00:51:07,470 should I do? If you are feeling that? If you ever feel like you're confused about why you're in? Why are you in that trade right now, it becomes the point
289 00:51:07,470 --> 00:51:18,480 where you cannot justify why you're in it. And the framework is still valid. Immediately class a trade. That's the only way you develop discipline that is
290 00:51:18,480 --> 00:51:28,110 not tapping out and being afraid, okay? You are listening to something in your head that you need to learn from, you may be getting out before you should, and
291 00:51:28,110 --> 00:51:38,640 it may run in your favor. But you'll learn from that. And it won't hurt you. But if you stay in it, and you feel those impulses, you might be at that point where
292 00:51:38,640 --> 00:51:48,660 you know enough that your body and your mind and your intellect and your experience is telling you it's time to go get out of this, this is not good. And
293 00:51:48,660 --> 00:51:57,450 if you don't listen to that, you're going to regret it on the other end. Because it's going to take from you, it's going to take more than you wanted to give up.
294 00:51:58,140 --> 00:52:10,170 That pound of flesh becomes your entire 100 parts. And that's not fun. So, anyway, I kind of like want to coach you a little bit about what we were
295 00:52:10,170 --> 00:52:17,310 watching last week, how it transpired and what it delivered. You should be thinking about it a specific way. Hopefully I communicated that wellness
296 00:52:17,850 --> 00:52:27,210 discussion. I hope you got something out of this. And if not, I apologize for wasting time, but I'm going to try to do it again in the future. Until I talk to
297 00:52:27,210 --> 00:52:28,620 you next time. Be safe