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ICT YT - 2022-05-24 - The Inner Circle Trader Live New York Session May 24 2022.srt

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2022-05-27 12:05
1 00:00:33,390 --> 00:00:54,450 ICT: Can you hear me Give me a five by five on Twitter, I'm not looking at the chat window on YouTube, it's for the trolls
2 00:01:28,410 --> 00:01:40,980 just a little bit of a delay, it doesn't seem as bad as it was yesterday, but Alright, so this one probably won't be all that long today, we're just gonna go
3 00:01:40,980 --> 00:01:59,040 into the news at 10 product 1015 More in the stream because I have a lot of work to do video work. But I'm gonna go over real quick times brain daily
4 00:02:07,380 --> 00:02:18,600 after the folks that are still complaining about my color, I want you to get back to the white background, I can, I'm trying to make the best I can by
5 00:02:18,600 --> 00:02:34,980 dimming the background, and still going with the color scheme you see in front of you. Alright, so we are at kind of like in no man's land from this high to
6 00:02:34,980 --> 00:02:45,390 that low, worked back up into this imbalance here. And we're still inside of yesterday's daily range. We already touched the opening gap on Sunday
7 00:02:58,110 --> 00:03:07,650 had unbalanced in here so far, it's respecting that and that is the bodies of that there. So we have sellside resting around 3900. My interest was initially
8 00:03:07,650 --> 00:03:16,230 to see if they wanted to take it back up into this session opening gap. This is where they started trading again last night six o'clock. So while I'm not
9 00:03:16,230 --> 00:03:24,750 suggesting that it's going to completely fill that in, I'm just looking to see if they wanted to take it back up and just bump this high. I'm not in a hurry to
10 00:03:24,750 --> 00:03:34,980 do anything today because it's literally it's not even 5050 Right now, like I I don't have a clear decision on what side of the marketplace I want to play. But
11 00:03:34,980 --> 00:03:43,800 this is the only interest I have right now. If we take out the Sunday gap opening, as I mentioned yesterday, if we go below that come back up into that to
12 00:03:43,800 --> 00:03:56,880 me would be a scenario that could provide possible bearishness. But again, you were speaking hypothetically here, over paper trading and charting. You remember
13 00:03:56,880 --> 00:03:59,190 this is all opinion
14 00:04:05,580 --> 00:04:18,180 the 50 minute time frame. They left relative equal highs in place here too as well extend the Sunday gap.
15 00:04:23,370 --> 00:04:34,200 So I was talking a little bit yesterday about how the market needs to be like one sided. And that's how I classify a low resistance liquidity run. So if it
16 00:04:34,200 --> 00:04:45,690 doesn't give you a or me or anyone else is studying and back testing and forward testing or demo trading. If you're not able to see one side clearly, you're
17 00:04:45,690 --> 00:04:49,470 gambling, okay, and you're wasting your time, even with a demo account.
18 00:04:54,630 --> 00:05:08,850 So I'm looking at the relationship between the NASDAQ and the s&p. That's more hang out there Highs Looks like they may want to dig into the lows overnight and
19 00:05:08,850 --> 00:05:18,480 in London on both the E Mini and NAS XL initially we're looking down here
20 00:05:37,230 --> 00:05:38,730 sloppy sloppy morning
21 00:05:52,020 --> 00:05:53,430 all right we have a little gap in here
22 00:06:04,290 --> 00:06:09,270 now there's news coming out in a few minutes and then at 10 o'clock as well
23 00:06:14,640 --> 00:06:23,100 so we're allowing for that to take place and whatever whatever manipulation or other as a result of that
24 00:06:30,480 --> 00:06:32,670 so let's outline this
25 00:07:29,250 --> 00:07:42,480 okay so we should to prove liquidity this morning this one here it just based on the relationship between the highs look at the five minute chart between the E
26 00:07:42,480 --> 00:07:53,760 Mini s&p June contract and that of the E Mini NASDAQ five minute chart you'll see that there's an s&p Divergence that means NASDAQ was failing to make a
27 00:07:53,760 --> 00:07:59,520 higher high like we saw in the s&p here.
28 00:09:23,640 --> 00:09:27,420 It's not a trade Don't get crazy and going on entering
29 00:09:35,670 --> 00:09:36,900 protein shake in case you're wondering
30 00:09:48,360 --> 00:10:07,590 I'm more interested in to see what we're doing when they bring the news out 495 and 10 o'clock Typically you'll get like a, a more pure price run between 10 and
31 00:10:08,130 --> 00:10:17,520 1030. So that kind of like overlaps with after the news is released to the marketplace. So they'll use whatever sentiment. I mentioned yesterday that they
32 00:10:17,520 --> 00:10:31,740 will use a sentiment. But the initial bullishness at the open and they took that they took the market rather lower into the Sunday gap opening and then push to
33 00:10:31,740 --> 00:10:40,770 higher in the day. So, we're going to be looking at similar fashion today waiting for the news to come out to manipulate the liquidity pools that are
34 00:10:40,770 --> 00:10:53,310 noted here. Admittedly, I do not know which one with high probability is going to be hit first. So that way we understand going forward and waiting to see what
35 00:10:53,310 --> 00:11:05,460 they do with the news. And you're all welcome to go on the Twitter and tell me what you think is going to happen first. Just be sure to tell me where your
36 00:11:05,460 --> 00:11:14,250 entry your stop and your target is to everybody once come back behind me and say Oh, well he didn't do this. But he didn't do that. But you don't really live
37 00:11:14,250 --> 00:11:16,950 though. Can't say that no more connect
38 00:11:24,840 --> 00:11:31,650 so just a minute or two, we'll have a little bit of volatility got to come in.
39 00:12:14,760 --> 00:12:29,280 NASDAQ is decidedly weak, it's already taken out its London lows. So we'll have to see the s&p more to follow suit and go lower. Now with the fact that we
40 00:12:29,280 --> 00:12:44,580 traded into about halfway into the gap on Sundays gap opening for s&p to trade into that gap again, would in my mind expected to see go down to the lower end
41 00:12:44,580 --> 00:12:58,890 of the the gap masses going on what I see in NASDAQ now some of you are looking at the Dow and wondering why I don't touch that. As I mentioned yesterday, I'm
42 00:12:58,890 --> 00:13:17,040 not interested in trading it goes a little bit more erratic if you look at it, compared to NASDAQ, NASDAQ is still real heavy down near its three and lows s&p
43 00:13:17,460 --> 00:13:29,670 into its fair value gap. and Dow is just learning with its opening range high. So we're all over the place waiting for the news. What you're studying is does
44 00:13:29,670 --> 00:13:38,790 it hit this roll down attack The overnight lows and come to the low with a gap on Sundays gap opening that's it you're observing that's true studying.
45 00:14:45,960 --> 00:14:48,780 NASDAQ remains exceedingly weak
46 00:15:09,420 --> 00:15:25,920 Now if you have access to the dollar, you can pull that up one trading view dollars a week while NASDAQ is weak and that is a mixed market with lift on Euro
47 00:15:25,920 --> 00:15:31,650 it's going a little bit higher today that's the strongest one between it and cable
48 00:15:45,780 --> 00:15:55,530 so NASDAQ lovin 690 next level of interest for me s&p Still holding
49 00:16:06,180 --> 00:16:08,370 has yet to take its overnight lows
50 00:16:21,840 --> 00:16:37,920 look at your Dow chart, why I am ugly. That's why I don't touch it. That's why I don't treat it intermediate term highs and lows and looking at market structure.
51 00:16:39,150 --> 00:16:52,410 I'll use the Dow as a confirmation of present market structure but I'm not using Dow for like a trading instrument I'll look at it in relationship to NASDAQ and
52 00:16:53,370 --> 00:16:58,200 the s&p but prefer to trade either ES or NQ.
53 00:17:57,750 --> 00:18:11,760 Are the charts clean? Like can you see like the wicks and all through the stream because I don't have a way of seeing it. I'm gonna have to mean I'm checking on
54 00:18:11,760 --> 00:18:12,720 Twitter for your response.
55 00:18:41,430 --> 00:18:42,840 Thank you Reggie Thank you Mark.
56 00:19:09,299 --> 00:19:18,359 So when you're looking at pricing, it's doing things like this, you want to see it's kind of respect this swing high not returned back to the fair value gap. So
57 00:19:18,359 --> 00:19:29,849 if you were, as I say, you're taking this as a paper trade, okay, and you use this fair value gap as your entry. You have this fair value gap here on the one
58 00:19:29,849 --> 00:19:39,899 minute chart, because we already got rotation in took out a swing low. It's less likely to go back to this one. If it does, it's probably going to go for the buy
59 00:19:39,899 --> 00:19:50,939 side. That's how I would interpret it. So your stock could be used just for sake of the risk model for it. This candle is low, that will be basically the high
60 00:19:50,939 --> 00:19:59,969 end of the gap. That's where using this entry that's where your stop would be for paper trading. It's not a trade recommendation. I'm not saying get in here.
61 00:20:19,980 --> 00:20:22,170 Dollar Index making a lower low for today?
62 00:20:49,859 --> 00:20:53,519 Now look at the way the market structure is right now
63 00:20:58,529 --> 00:21:15,089 compare the s&p to the Dow, did it look similar? Nothing similar about the NASDAQ. Is that similar to s&p? No. So this is what I'm referring to as a mixed
64 00:21:15,089 --> 00:21:23,429 market, it doesn't mean that you can't trade it just means that it makes it very, very difficult. And it's not, it's not clear to determine where the
65 00:21:23,429 --> 00:21:34,799 markets gonna likely draw to next, like where is the next easy objective for the reprice to because we can't see that it's better to stay out. Got a couple more
66 00:21:34,799 --> 00:21:36,779 minutes and we'll have the 10 o'clock hour start.
67 00:22:18,900 --> 00:22:33,780 So I guess what I'm trying to communicate from yesterday and today is there's there are certain I guess frameworks or structure in the marketplace that is
68 00:22:33,780 --> 00:22:47,310 more conducive for a low resistance liquidity run low resistance liquidity run is where the market shows a clear defined area of draw where it's likely to go
69 00:22:47,310 --> 00:22:58,230 to like relatively equal lows or an old high, and we've been bullish, so it's pretty much next to a no brainer. If there ever really was there. Nothing's risk
70 00:22:58,230 --> 00:23:11,790 free, obviously. But you're looking for areas that give you opportunity to see the market move from where you're studying at the market price, and define risk
71 00:23:11,790 --> 00:23:23,820 and in terms of a low risk, and then at least have two or three of what you were anticipated as a risk for the trade, if you can find that. And it's framed on
72 00:23:23,820 --> 00:23:30,480 the basis of low resistance liquidity now when I say low resistance, don't think that it's a move going up because you're thinking like support resistance or
73 00:23:30,480 --> 00:23:42,450 resistance will be above price. Don't Don't think like that. What I'm saying is resistance in impeding the flow or the fluidity of price delivering to a
74 00:23:42,450 --> 00:23:53,400 particular price level. In other words, if we're bearish, how hard has it been so far for the market to trade back down into the Sunday gap? It's been
75 00:23:53,400 --> 00:24:10,800 reluctant so far right for the s&p. Now look at the five minute chart on MQM 2022 or June contract for NASDAQ. That is a easy run to overnight lows. Three
76 00:24:10,800 --> 00:24:13,380 o'clock in the morning. It just went right down here like a ninth.
77 00:24:27,750 --> 00:24:35,550 Cane NASDAQ's almost at 11 690 is just an objective. It's not like a turning point for me.
78 00:24:41,369 --> 00:24:46,769 down just being ugly. Ugly kid Joe.
79 00:25:10,109 --> 00:25:17,879 All right now these are times where you have to be careful because we went below this well here, we went below this low here. And this low, we went below it
80 00:25:17,879 --> 00:25:25,679 here, while the while the NASDAQ is going lower, s&p is being fickle.
81 00:25:38,190 --> 00:25:48,240 Now are there are times when I want to see, like that fair value gap that I've just noted here. I like to see those stay open, not see a closed in. And the
82 00:25:48,240 --> 00:26:00,030 reason why is because I just outlined, we went below this low here, this low below here, and this low here. So I'd like to see this stay open, and then run
83 00:26:00,030 --> 00:26:12,270 down into Sunday gap. I would prefer to see that why because NASDAQ has been heavy, meaning it's been going down easiest between the two indices. If you're
84 00:26:12,270 --> 00:26:28,530 looking for a short, do you short, the one that has the higher high or the lower high? Using what I'm teaching, and SMT, you're going to short the one that has
85 00:26:28,530 --> 00:26:35,130 the lower high. So that would have been NASDAQ. Now, obviously, there's going to be soon as near Well, why didn't you look at that, because I'm showing you the
86 00:26:35,130 --> 00:26:43,770 relationship, if you just follow one instrument, which is really what you should be trying to do, you should be focusing on becoming a specialist looking at one
87 00:26:43,770 --> 00:26:56,850 market, trying to capitalize on that one market and learn its characteristics trusted, but also refer to other markets, we should get that rumble of the three
88 00:26:56,850 --> 00:27:13,740 and lose now on s&p. The key is Do we go there and accelerate to the downside? Or does it pull back into the range that is this high and whatever low performs
89 00:27:20,579 --> 00:27:42,779 the Dow is still not trying to join the party. NASDAQ has broke 11 Six e not yet six areas 16. I'm sorry 1006 at Spin dusted on NASDAQ. Alright, get down into
90 00:27:42,779 --> 00:27:53,309 the Sunday gap opening again. We've already revisited half of that yesterday. So think down here. We're already in it. So if it's going to go here, think down
91 00:27:53,309 --> 00:28:02,849 there. And that would be an objective for you to take like a first partial or something like that. And your stock would roll to below breakeven or will be
92 00:28:02,909 --> 00:28:15,569 better than breakeven so that we don't have any risk so your stop would be we'll just use this candlestick high and NASDAQ still falling out of bed
93 00:28:21,539 --> 00:28:31,079 data looks like it wants to rollover has a small little one minute imbalance it's trying to trade back up into let's see if it accelerates to the downside
94 00:28:31,079 --> 00:28:50,489 and reaches 431 580. I'm a lot more interesting when the markets better these are these are very boring market conditions but these are the ones that you need
95 00:28:50,489 --> 00:28:58,829 to understand. Okay, this is where you hurt yourself if you don't know what you're looking for or what you're seeing it's hard to interpret if you don't
96 00:28:58,829 --> 00:28:59,639 have the experience
97 00:29:09,630 --> 00:29:16,080 Alright, so we have 10 o'clock hour whatever impact news is going to bring is going to be priced in now.
98 00:29:53,339 --> 00:30:02,249 All right, that's when you would be paying the trader taking something out. Notice that we had that gap stay open here It's almost like it listened in it.
99 00:30:03,209 --> 00:30:12,359 So you would roll your stock now to this level here, because if it's gonna go back here to that gap, it's not good for being bearish, you don't want to see
100 00:30:12,359 --> 00:30:23,219 that. Now, we're into a larger leg of not late, but an area of order flow, which is that gap opening on Sunday. So since we're down here now and we completely
101 00:30:23,219 --> 00:30:33,539 filled it in, to come back up here, I'm not interested in taking another short. So you would be at least half your position would be off now, if not 80% of it,
102 00:30:34,079 --> 00:30:45,449 and then leave the balance on with a stop to here for your paper trade. Okay? Hindsight only we're dealing with hindsight with a time machine.
103 00:31:05,789 --> 00:31:20,549 So it's, it's a little bit interesting to see how folks will come into the content, or they'll come to the Twitter or go to my community tab posts and read
104 00:31:20,549 --> 00:31:30,989 them or go to my comment section on the videos. And they'll say, you know, watch this video, and I can't make it work. It's because you're not doing this part of
105 00:31:30,989 --> 00:31:38,669 it. You're sitting in front of the chart, not trying to put a bunch of push a button, you're not trying to determine, you know, where to get in. Because all
106 00:31:38,669 --> 00:31:47,639 those things in the beginning are the least important. You have to know what it's doing. Where is it reaching? What's it trying to get to? Is there a reason
107 00:31:47,639 --> 00:31:58,859 why it needs to get to a specific level? Would that be a narrative? Is there an economic calendar event that's likely to come in and inspire some volatility? Is
108 00:31:58,859 --> 00:32:13,949 there a well, things can happen around the world, let's say like that, something unexpected can happen and cause an upset, something war related, or the longer
109 00:32:13,949 --> 00:32:24,779 lines, something like that. Alright, we just took out that short term low here. Now, when I see that, I'd like to move the stop a little bit lower. So now we
110 00:32:24,779 --> 00:32:34,169 have a gap here. So I don't want to see this gap traded to either now because we're below, Sunday's gap opening, so your your stop would be right in here on
111 00:32:34,169 --> 00:32:46,739 your balance, which would be about 20% of whatever the original position was at that fair value gap there. So you're already quote unquote, hypothetically,
112 00:32:47,189 --> 00:33:00,539 booked in profit with only 20% of your original vision and stops are rolled to a nice place where even if it comes back up a notch out, who cares? Who cares?
113 00:33:00,839 --> 00:33:13,889 This is a very hard day the markets are mixed. The indices are dropping with the dollar index so that right there means that you have to be very careful number
114 00:33:13,889 --> 00:33:24,089 one, you got to be selective and where you're trying to get to and where's the market gonna draw to? This was a beautiful example of that. So I told you I
115 00:33:24,089 --> 00:33:38,819 wouldn't be here long this morning. But this is certainly long enough for this to have communicated concept. Experience precision, whatever fill in the blank
116 00:33:40,319 --> 00:33:53,279 if you are live if you're here watching me do this in airline did we use any rented empty for servers? Did your chart paint like we were expecting real time?
117 00:33:54,299 --> 00:34:07,859 Did your chart turn here on a dime? Just like mine does. Did I do any kind of sorcery any kind of trickery? Did I did I pull some kind of scheme that I
118 00:34:08,159 --> 00:34:19,259 fraudulently trick you that I hypnotize you? Am I paying you to say yes am I am I paying you money to go out and rep me and try to get people to believe that
119 00:34:19,259 --> 00:34:28,319 what I talked about and teach is real or did you witness it? Did you just witness this because if you witnessed this give me an amen.
120 00:34:57,510 --> 00:35:11,460 drunk monkey says he must have connected to the same fake In the forest service, I love it. Well, hopefully this will inspire folks that are on social media on
121 00:35:11,460 --> 00:35:21,360 Instagram and on Twitter to sit down with everyone that has a sincere interest in learning from them to sit down and show it, just explain it give a logic why
122 00:35:21,360 --> 00:35:29,580 it should work. And if it's real, then it should pan out. If it isn't, then there's your answer. There's no reason to be a jerk about it.
123 00:35:40,920 --> 00:35:52,950 Alright, so going forward, I'm going to close this string here. If it takes up this low, I would take another portion off. Enroll the stop to the top of the
124 00:35:52,950 --> 00:36:00,240 gap. Okay, another partial should be taken, the stock should be rolled to the top of the gap. It should not ever go back to that point, it's going to remain
125 00:36:00,240 --> 00:36:08,190 bearish. And then you just hold on to see what you can squeeze out of it. If you can get another 10 points out of it. There it is.
126 00:36:19,140 --> 00:36:29,250 I would be taking mine out now. In closing it for the day in this watch and see what the afternoon session does, but that's just me. You do what you want to do.
127 00:36:30,480 --> 00:36:37,380 So hopefully, hopefully, obviously you guys found this insightful and got something from it. If you did, just give me some feedback on Twitter. I
128 00:36:37,380 --> 00:36:40,410 appreciate it. Enjoy the rest of your day and be safe