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ICT YT - 2022-05-20 - ICT Mentorship 2022 Episode 32.srt

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2022-05-21 17:27
1 00:00:07,170 --> 00:00:17,250 ICT: Alright, folks, welcome back. It's gonna be a short little commentary on basically what I went with today, given commentary through Twitter, you're
2 00:00:17,250 --> 00:00:25,470 welcome to go over my Twitter feed and go through, it's a lot because I was going all day long with it. And that's kind of walking people through their own
3 00:00:25,470 --> 00:00:35,490 charts to kind of get a better feel for what to expect and where the real Senate was going to be for today. Before I get into all that, just know that everything
4 00:00:35,490 --> 00:00:44,910 that I said is time and date stamped. Sadly, there's no tomfoolery about it. And only the diligent are going to want to go through something like this, and I put
5 00:00:44,940 --> 00:00:57,030 the readers on Twitter, through the meat grinder today, I literally took them through every minor fluctuation, explain why it should do this and should do
6 00:00:57,030 --> 00:01:07,110 that. And ultimately setting up way before happened. The three o'clock the four o'clock short, outlined in detail gave the reasons why I should take place.
7 00:01:07,770 --> 00:01:20,550 Everything's there. And everything I'm going to say in short highlight here is obviously found in the tweet. So we have an outside day here yesterday, big down
8 00:01:20,550 --> 00:01:30,210 closed day, and outside day to date tied in the previous day and lower than the previous day's low. So here's previous day's high, it went higher, here's
9 00:01:30,210 --> 00:01:39,630 previous day's low and went lower. So all of this range is outside of the previous day's range. And it closed down. When this happens, there's typically
10 00:01:39,630 --> 00:01:50,430 this type of price action formation, but it's really included with the odds in your favor. If you're trading down to an a little bit, fall short of it. Okay,
11 00:01:50,430 --> 00:02:02,550 this is usually where that double bottom idea comes in. And it feels safe to if you're trading like me, look for a run through the old low. But if they stop,
12 00:02:02,550 --> 00:02:12,690 it's short, it tends to be a choppy day. So see if we have an outside date with down close. So let's go into an hourly chart.
13 00:02:18,030 --> 00:02:26,970 Alright, so here's the price action for today, we're going to look inside this little tiny little fractal right here. And I can zoom in here.
14 00:02:33,810 --> 00:02:44,490 So we have old highs in here, if you look at the high here comes in at 3933 and a quarter. I mentioned that level today mentioned it a few times. And we were
15 00:02:44,490 --> 00:02:55,830 going to trade up to that. And I built the idea that looking at price studying the way that I teach it, it will be very easy to fall victim. In this type of
16 00:02:55,830 --> 00:03:06,840 trading day, we're choppy, it's listless, trading back and forth, and how to anticipate it what to look for. And I want to go into the five minute chart real
17 00:03:06,840 --> 00:03:19,710 quick. Okay, and here's a five minute chart. And we're going to add some annotations here. So here is the 30. I'm 33 and a quarter level. That's why that
18 00:03:19,710 --> 00:03:31,410 level was mentioned in the tweet. This is the low at 3871. A quarter. And the old low on the daily chart that did not get traded through is at 3855. And that
19 00:03:31,410 --> 00:03:46,110 is we just fell short of reaching that at 3856. So we went one handle short of that started trading higher. And I mentioned how the market many times can
20 00:03:46,110 --> 00:03:56,790 present opportunities that look like it's likely to form a set up but it really doesn't really come to fruition. If you look at the range here
21 00:04:13,980 --> 00:04:27,120 I'm highlighting the sphere you got right there. Okay, how we cheated into it started working lower, create a small little fair value gap and here bumped into
22 00:04:27,120 --> 00:04:38,250 that traded lower nothing really in here to work with in terms of the model. So nothing here is a short we were talking about all that this morning. So as the
23 00:04:38,250 --> 00:04:49,110 market was trading around in this area, I mentioned how it was likely to be a 5050 probability. That means it's likely to go higher, just as well as it is
24 00:04:49,440 --> 00:04:58,260 likely to trade lower. Okay, so what's the benefit? Obviously, anybody can come into it with a 5050 expectation, but it really statistically moves to 5050 when
25 00:04:58,260 --> 00:05:07,230 we start trading back into the middle there Ah, okay, so this imbalance here, the fair value gap, it should have offered a little bit more movement lower, why
26 00:05:07,230 --> 00:05:15,960 wouldn't go down and take out this short term? Well, it went below this short term low here, and then started rallying working towards the relative equalizer
27 00:05:15,960 --> 00:05:26,910 here. I mentioned early on that it would go to 3933 and a quarter, that's where it would go. But I favored. In other words, in terms of bias for the longer
28 00:05:26,910 --> 00:05:38,400 term, I savored the 3055 level down here for sellside. I don't think that they're done with it down there. But we have to take every single trade idea
29 00:05:38,430 --> 00:05:46,260 based on its current dealing ranges, and what's the dealing range, well, I'm feeling ready for be like from this high down to that low. And we measure those,
30 00:05:47,160 --> 00:05:57,570 yes, it trades up into that imbalance, and trades down to a short term low. That's a tradable opportunity there. But it's not very clear. After that, it
31 00:05:57,570 --> 00:06:07,080 just goes back and forth chopping, short term loads are taken high, high is taken here, we trade back and forth, all of this is really ugly type of price
32 00:06:07,080 --> 00:06:16,920 action. And I mentioned that we would go to 3933 and a quarterback here and it ran right up into it clear, there's relative equal highs for down trade back
33 00:06:16,920 --> 00:06:27,060 down into the range. And I started talking about how the real setup that would be formed by my content, by the things that makes sense in the algorithm would
34 00:06:27,060 --> 00:06:39,780 deliver a specific framework today, I told everybody on Twitter, you can go back and look at it to take a vertical line and edit to three o'clock, New York local
35 00:06:39,780 --> 00:07:03,300 time. And four o'clock. And that will be the setup forms. To take us back down into the middle of the range. Now I tell everyone in the tweets to study the
36 00:07:03,330 --> 00:07:17,700 middle of the daily range. Okay, so what does that mean, if you look at what the high was in the low Okay, read it here, if that's the middle range, we ran above
37 00:07:18,000 --> 00:07:24,960 the short term high. So we have relative equal highs here and relative equal highs here. So there's buyside resting here, I outline how the market would use
38 00:07:25,560 --> 00:07:35,790 the running up to take out the buy stops to squeeze anybody that was short and Trailer Stop Loss down. And also to induce people into thinking it's gonna go
39 00:07:35,790 --> 00:07:42,900 higher. So that way, it builds up liquidity below these lows, McConnell liquidity, sell side liquidity, because they're gonna protect their long
40 00:07:42,900 --> 00:07:52,500 sessions. But the main thing was focusing on the middle middle of the range here. So if we're looking for setups that are going to be based on a run above
41 00:07:52,500 --> 00:08:00,150 for buy side and pull back into the range, that needs to be specific in terms of time, I gave a very specific window between three o'clock and four o'clock in
42 00:08:00,150 --> 00:08:15,180 the afternoon. So we go into an hour, I'm sorry, on our chat, we're gonna go to a minute chart. Okay, and you can see here, the market rallies above bumps into
43 00:08:15,180 --> 00:08:25,260 the past liquidity. Smart Money uses that to go short. This is exactly what I outlined beforehand. It's all in a tweet. It's not ambiguous. It's very
44 00:08:25,260 --> 00:08:32,400 specific, I tell you exactly when the trade is going to form and say exactly how it's going to happen. I say the framework, the logic, the narrative, everything,
45 00:08:32,610 --> 00:08:44,790 it's going to pull back to the middle of the range. Here is the breakdown. Here, me take this over here. Is this a swing? Well, yes. Is this a fair Vega? Yes.
46 00:08:45,000 --> 00:08:59,070 Does it trade back up into that range? Yes, it works lower back into the middle of the range. Let me put this back where I went, Okay, and if I add the
47 00:08:59,070 --> 00:09:05,160 annotations you'll see right there.
48 00:09:07,500 --> 00:09:18,060 I sold short at 3940 and three quarters. And I took four of them off at 39 08 and three quarters, middle range. And
49 00:09:25,080 --> 00:09:42,030 let's see there still is a position layer with partials taken off already. Okay, and the limit order down here at 3035 It doesn't matter if it goes down or now I
50 00:09:42,030 --> 00:09:52,950 don't care but I have a position in play should do so. I want everyone to understand that there are people out there obviously want to say stupid things
51 00:09:52,950 --> 00:10:01,110 because they either want to get a rise out of me or they're they feel that their competition and they want to get in you know a lot more tension for themselves.
52 00:10:01,230 --> 00:10:11,460 Honestly, you know, if you want to build a tension around yourself, just do things that warrant people's attention placed on you. But for anyone that
53 00:10:11,640 --> 00:10:21,750 obviously did not spend time with me today, this is going to be rather boring, it's going to be pointless to you. But I walked through all of the things that
54 00:10:21,780 --> 00:10:32,700 days like this, where it's choppy, okay, where it's just going back and forth, back and forth. This was not read wrong, I purposely took everybody in to the
55 00:10:32,700 --> 00:10:39,600 marketplace through their own chart and told them to think about what was going on in their own mind what other traders would be thinking. So that way, you
56 00:10:39,600 --> 00:10:49,770 could really capture what it feels like to be in there looking for your own setups and try to think critically about it. I outlined in advance where the
57 00:10:49,770 --> 00:10:57,450 setup based on the things I teach up here where it runs, the buy stops, we pair with that, and then pullback to the middle range. And it does so beautifully.
58 00:10:58,920 --> 00:11:07,950 All of this in here is really hard, choppy price action, it's very, very difficult to trade in those types of ranges, because they can come back on you
59 00:11:07,950 --> 00:11:16,350 stop you out and just go nowhere for a long period of time. So if you know what you're looking for in terms of what the algorithm is going to do, and the
60 00:11:16,350 --> 00:11:26,550 algorithm on days like this, this is called a consolidation day. And what happens is this, the market starts trading creates an initial range, and then
61 00:11:26,550 --> 00:11:37,560 stays in that range until the afternoon, at three o'clock. It used to be the bond close that started this whole thing. But now it's just three o'clock that
62 00:11:37,560 --> 00:11:49,770 four o'clock when equities closed the closing bell, that sets the tone for on closed orders. So what that means is what was going on prior to three o'clock,
63 00:11:49,890 --> 00:11:58,110 the market was rallying up, what did it go up for the buy side liquidity, but traders gonna look at that as a breakout to go higher. And they're going to pair
64 00:11:58,110 --> 00:12:07,320 that with the market participants that are considered smart money. So that's exactly what I outlined. This is exactly what transpired. Everybody in the
65 00:12:08,280 --> 00:12:15,210 Twitter feed, were following along. I mean, granted, there were a few people, and you can go through and see who they were, they weren't really paying
66 00:12:15,210 --> 00:12:23,670 attention because they came into the conversation late and I went a long day today just tweeting, tweeting, tweeting, what you don't know is I had my son
67 00:12:24,270 --> 00:12:35,430 sitting next to me, and I'm outlining things to him. And I'm explaining what should take should take place rather, in the marketplace. Plus, I'm also sending
68 00:12:35,430 --> 00:12:45,750 out tweets. So my mind was divided between all of that. So it was very difficult not only to predict what you all were thinking and thinking about what should be
69 00:12:45,780 --> 00:12:55,620 transpiring in price action, plus, literally walking through with my son what to anticipate expect and see in price action through his lens, he was actually
70 00:12:55,650 --> 00:13:07,710 executing in a live account, he has his amp account linked right through trading view. So you can trade directly right from the chart. So he's plugging away on
71 00:13:07,710 --> 00:13:19,440 my laptop right next to me. And his account was able to grow from $6,000 at the beginning of the week. Now it's at $10,000. That's real money, that's live
72 00:13:19,440 --> 00:13:31,020 money. And, you know, when I, when I hear about people that say the stuff that I teach doesn't work, or if I can't call the market in when people sit there, and
73 00:13:31,020 --> 00:13:40,590 they spend the entire day with me. And I outline everything. And I outline this very specific trade here way before he even formed before the market even went
74 00:13:40,590 --> 00:13:49,650 up there, I'm explaining all that. It went right to where I said it was gonna go, run the stops, then sync it back down the middle arrange, go back and look
75 00:13:49,650 --> 00:13:57,600 at the tweets. I can't edit them. And I'm not deleting anything. Okay, so if I make a mistake of spelling here, you just gonna have to deal with it. Because,
76 00:13:57,750 --> 00:14:04,740 you know, I don't want any deleted tweets, zero. So if you'd like to follow me and all that stuff, just save everything, save it all, I
77 00:14:04,740 --> 00:14:13,770 don't care. The point is, I want you to save them as what exactly what I said the last time I was on Twitter, save my tweets, save them, because you're going
78 00:14:13,770 --> 00:14:23,370 to see things that prove obviously what I'm talking about, it proves that I have the visibility that I can see these things beforehand. And there's a lot of
79 00:14:23,370 --> 00:14:32,250 people out there that will just not want to put the work into learning this because it seems too hard. They just want to put an indicator on the chart and
80 00:14:32,280 --> 00:14:42,210 you know, that's all I want. Give me a MACD give me a stochastic moving average, and we'll call it a day. But they don't give you logic and narrative. They just
81 00:14:42,210 --> 00:14:54,330 give you a crunching of the numbers. And that type of thing is, in my opinion, not very beneficial because you're you're beating up the data of price action
82 00:14:54,390 --> 00:15:03,180 versus reading in understanding what the tape is. And that's exactly what I was doing today with everybody on Twitter. So there is an application that I was
83 00:15:03,210 --> 00:15:11,970 made aware of on Twitter that allow someone to do, I think, if I'm not mistaken, they call my space or spaces. Or if I said that wrong, forgive me. I'm not going
84 00:15:11,970 --> 00:15:21,420 to edit this video. But apparently, there's something on the Twitter app that you can kind of like talk. And I think it's just audio where you just talk and
85 00:15:21,420 --> 00:15:29,490 people that are, I guess, following you on Twitter, they can hear you talk. So I guess, in a way, it could be like an ICT Squawk Box, and I can kind of like,
86 00:15:30,000 --> 00:15:42,210 talk out loud about what I'm looking at what I think is useful. It's not a trade set up, obviously, or a signal service type thing, because that's not what I do.
87 00:15:42,480 --> 00:15:51,120 And I don't do those things. So we were studying price action together over my shoulder through tweets. And this was the move I was outlining well in advance
88 00:15:51,120 --> 00:16:00,600 earlier in the day, I was setting the stage for all this back and forth motion, that they're going to drive a higher to squeeze out traders that were already
89 00:16:00,600 --> 00:16:12,420 short from previous day, and trail, the stop loss rate above the old high back here, they bumped it here on a very shallow run, let me take this off, they
90 00:16:12,420 --> 00:16:13,050 bumped it on
91 00:16:20,220 --> 00:16:27,810 these relative equal highs, as it dropped down the trail, their stop loss, those that are short, said the granite and bumped it on a shallow basis. And then one
92 00:16:27,810 --> 00:16:37,620 more time, they ran it up in there and clear them out real nice. So the logic I was teaching was that would be utilized for smart money at the close between
93 00:16:37,620 --> 00:16:47,940 three o'clock and four o'clock. So they ran it up there. All the buy orders that were resting above here, or here in the form of protecting short stops, or not
94 00:16:47,940 --> 00:16:57,420 sort of stops or positions acting as their stop loss order. When the market trades above that those buy stops that are protective in nature, they become a
95 00:16:57,420 --> 00:17:08,730 rushing liquidity wave, okay, of willing buyers on the market. So willing buyers at the market, at three o'clock on a day like this where it's consolidated, it's
96 00:17:08,730 --> 00:17:17,400 gonna want to go back to the middle of a range. And that's why I posted into the study the middle of the range, that's age range, okay. So when you look at that
97 00:17:17,400 --> 00:17:29,190 type of event, it's going to range bound train between years, the 930 or so right? There, okay, so the low of the day, they're in the hive day, there's a
98 00:17:29,190 --> 00:17:40,170 split that in the middle, there's your midpoint, and it's going to want to gravitate back to that. So when you look at price action days like this, and if
99 00:17:40,170 --> 00:17:47,940 you're caught up in it, you don't you're dealing or you feel like he's just being chopped up, wait until three o'clock, because many times at three o'clock
100 00:17:47,940 --> 00:17:57,600 to four, the algorithm will do something where it goes outside the bounds of the daily range like it did here. Okay, trades up into it, and then rams it down.
101 00:17:57,690 --> 00:18:05,010 And nobody's really allowed to make any money. Anyone that was long, breaking out here gets raked across the coals. Anyone that's short gets knocked out with
102 00:18:05,010 --> 00:18:15,630 a stop loss in a losing position. And most of the time traders are too afraid to go in here going short way are people that like myself outlined today, in front
103 00:18:15,630 --> 00:18:30,090 of 20,000 people. They all seen it, they all watched me call it and there it is. There's my fill. And there's the middle arrange, partial, and I got to inflict.
104 00:18:30,810 --> 00:18:39,600 And just for the sake of completeness, I'm just gonna take one of them off while I'm doing this recording. So that we don't have to worry about it at all, you
105 00:18:39,600 --> 00:18:52,110 can go to my stop and or go to my limit. And either one is fine by me. I don't care. Okay. So I'm going to try to do a little bit of tomorrow session, I'm not
106 00:18:52,110 --> 00:19:00,960 going to spend the entire day obviously, because I have other things that take care of it I scheduled in today, because I had to work with my son is analysis
107 00:19:00,960 --> 00:19:13,020 and learning all that stuff. So I was very proud to see him pushing the button on his account. He did very, very well had one or two hairy moments where he
108 00:19:13,020 --> 00:19:25,170 wasn't thinking like I was hoping he'd be thinking and had a losing trade was able to recoup that and push this account to over $10,000. So I'm very proud to
109 00:19:25,740 --> 00:19:37,440 see him engaging and doing his own thing and trying to figure out this stuff on his own. So yeah, I think we'll talk a little bit through that Twitter
110 00:19:37,440 --> 00:19:47,160 application tomorrow. I don't know how long go. But we'll see what we get from that. And I think that's going to be it for this one. And so I'll talk to you
111 00:19:47,160 --> 00:19:48,600 next time. Be safe.