ICT YT - 2022-05-20 - ICT Mentorship 2022 Episode 32.srt
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2022-05-21 17:27
| 1 | 00:00:07,170 --> 00:00:17,250 | ICT: Alright, folks, welcome back. It's gonna be a short little commentary on basically what I went with today, given commentary through Twitter, you're |
| 2 | 00:00:17,250 --> 00:00:25,470 | welcome to go over my Twitter feed and go through, it's a lot because I was going all day long with it. And that's kind of walking people through their own |
| 3 | 00:00:25,470 --> 00:00:35,490 | charts to kind of get a better feel for what to expect and where the real Senate was going to be for today. Before I get into all that, just know that everything |
| 4 | 00:00:35,490 --> 00:00:44,910 | that I said is time and date stamped. Sadly, there's no tomfoolery about it. And only the diligent are going to want to go through something like this, and I put |
| 5 | 00:00:44,940 --> 00:00:57,030 | the readers on Twitter, through the meat grinder today, I literally took them through every minor fluctuation, explain why it should do this and should do |
| 6 | 00:00:57,030 --> 00:01:07,110 | that. And ultimately setting up way before happened. The three o'clock the four o'clock short, outlined in detail gave the reasons why I should take place. |
| 7 | 00:01:07,770 --> 00:01:20,550 | Everything's there. And everything I'm going to say in short highlight here is obviously found in the tweet. So we have an outside day here yesterday, big down |
| 8 | 00:01:20,550 --> 00:01:30,210 | closed day, and outside day to date tied in the previous day and lower than the previous day's low. So here's previous day's high, it went higher, here's |
| 9 | 00:01:30,210 --> 00:01:39,630 | previous day's low and went lower. So all of this range is outside of the previous day's range. And it closed down. When this happens, there's typically |
| 10 | 00:01:39,630 --> 00:01:50,430 | this type of price action formation, but it's really included with the odds in your favor. If you're trading down to an a little bit, fall short of it. Okay, |
| 11 | 00:01:50,430 --> 00:02:02,550 | this is usually where that double bottom idea comes in. And it feels safe to if you're trading like me, look for a run through the old low. But if they stop, |
| 12 | 00:02:02,550 --> 00:02:12,690 | it's short, it tends to be a choppy day. So see if we have an outside date with down close. So let's go into an hourly chart. |
| 13 | 00:02:18,030 --> 00:02:26,970 | Alright, so here's the price action for today, we're going to look inside this little tiny little fractal right here. And I can zoom in here. |
| 14 | 00:02:33,810 --> 00:02:44,490 | So we have old highs in here, if you look at the high here comes in at 3933 and a quarter. I mentioned that level today mentioned it a few times. And we were |
| 15 | 00:02:44,490 --> 00:02:55,830 | going to trade up to that. And I built the idea that looking at price studying the way that I teach it, it will be very easy to fall victim. In this type of |
| 16 | 00:02:55,830 --> 00:03:06,840 | trading day, we're choppy, it's listless, trading back and forth, and how to anticipate it what to look for. And I want to go into the five minute chart real |
| 17 | 00:03:06,840 --> 00:03:19,710 | quick. Okay, and here's a five minute chart. And we're going to add some annotations here. So here is the 30. I'm 33 and a quarter level. That's why that |
| 18 | 00:03:19,710 --> 00:03:31,410 | level was mentioned in the tweet. This is the low at 3871. A quarter. And the old low on the daily chart that did not get traded through is at 3855. And that |
| 19 | 00:03:31,410 --> 00:03:46,110 | is we just fell short of reaching that at 3856. So we went one handle short of that started trading higher. And I mentioned how the market many times can |
| 20 | 00:03:46,110 --> 00:03:56,790 | present opportunities that look like it's likely to form a set up but it really doesn't really come to fruition. If you look at the range here |
| 21 | 00:04:13,980 --> 00:04:27,120 | I'm highlighting the sphere you got right there. Okay, how we cheated into it started working lower, create a small little fair value gap and here bumped into |
| 22 | 00:04:27,120 --> 00:04:38,250 | that traded lower nothing really in here to work with in terms of the model. So nothing here is a short we were talking about all that this morning. So as the |
| 23 | 00:04:38,250 --> 00:04:49,110 | market was trading around in this area, I mentioned how it was likely to be a 5050 probability. That means it's likely to go higher, just as well as it is |
| 24 | 00:04:49,440 --> 00:04:58,260 | likely to trade lower. Okay, so what's the benefit? Obviously, anybody can come into it with a 5050 expectation, but it really statistically moves to 5050 when |
| 25 | 00:04:58,260 --> 00:05:07,230 | we start trading back into the middle there Ah, okay, so this imbalance here, the fair value gap, it should have offered a little bit more movement lower, why |
| 26 | 00:05:07,230 --> 00:05:15,960 | wouldn't go down and take out this short term? Well, it went below this short term low here, and then started rallying working towards the relative equalizer |
| 27 | 00:05:15,960 --> 00:05:26,910 | here. I mentioned early on that it would go to 3933 and a quarter, that's where it would go. But I favored. In other words, in terms of bias for the longer |
| 28 | 00:05:26,910 --> 00:05:38,400 | term, I savored the 3055 level down here for sellside. I don't think that they're done with it down there. But we have to take every single trade idea |
| 29 | 00:05:38,430 --> 00:05:46,260 | based on its current dealing ranges, and what's the dealing range, well, I'm feeling ready for be like from this high down to that low. And we measure those, |
| 30 | 00:05:47,160 --> 00:05:57,570 | yes, it trades up into that imbalance, and trades down to a short term low. That's a tradable opportunity there. But it's not very clear. After that, it |
| 31 | 00:05:57,570 --> 00:06:07,080 | just goes back and forth chopping, short term loads are taken high, high is taken here, we trade back and forth, all of this is really ugly type of price |
| 32 | 00:06:07,080 --> 00:06:16,920 | action. And I mentioned that we would go to 3933 and a quarterback here and it ran right up into it clear, there's relative equal highs for down trade back |
| 33 | 00:06:16,920 --> 00:06:27,060 | down into the range. And I started talking about how the real setup that would be formed by my content, by the things that makes sense in the algorithm would |
| 34 | 00:06:27,060 --> 00:06:39,780 | deliver a specific framework today, I told everybody on Twitter, you can go back and look at it to take a vertical line and edit to three o'clock, New York local |
| 35 | 00:06:39,780 --> 00:07:03,300 | time. And four o'clock. And that will be the setup forms. To take us back down into the middle of the range. Now I tell everyone in the tweets to study the |
| 36 | 00:07:03,330 --> 00:07:17,700 | middle of the daily range. Okay, so what does that mean, if you look at what the high was in the low Okay, read it here, if that's the middle range, we ran above |
| 37 | 00:07:18,000 --> 00:07:24,960 | the short term high. So we have relative equal highs here and relative equal highs here. So there's buyside resting here, I outline how the market would use |
| 38 | 00:07:25,560 --> 00:07:35,790 | the running up to take out the buy stops to squeeze anybody that was short and Trailer Stop Loss down. And also to induce people into thinking it's gonna go |
| 39 | 00:07:35,790 --> 00:07:42,900 | higher. So that way, it builds up liquidity below these lows, McConnell liquidity, sell side liquidity, because they're gonna protect their long |
| 40 | 00:07:42,900 --> 00:07:52,500 | sessions. But the main thing was focusing on the middle middle of the range here. So if we're looking for setups that are going to be based on a run above |
| 41 | 00:07:52,500 --> 00:08:00,150 | for buy side and pull back into the range, that needs to be specific in terms of time, I gave a very specific window between three o'clock and four o'clock in |
| 42 | 00:08:00,150 --> 00:08:15,180 | the afternoon. So we go into an hour, I'm sorry, on our chat, we're gonna go to a minute chart. Okay, and you can see here, the market rallies above bumps into |
| 43 | 00:08:15,180 --> 00:08:25,260 | the past liquidity. Smart Money uses that to go short. This is exactly what I outlined beforehand. It's all in a tweet. It's not ambiguous. It's very |
| 44 | 00:08:25,260 --> 00:08:32,400 | specific, I tell you exactly when the trade is going to form and say exactly how it's going to happen. I say the framework, the logic, the narrative, everything, |
| 45 | 00:08:32,610 --> 00:08:44,790 | it's going to pull back to the middle of the range. Here is the breakdown. Here, me take this over here. Is this a swing? Well, yes. Is this a fair Vega? Yes. |
| 46 | 00:08:45,000 --> 00:08:59,070 | Does it trade back up into that range? Yes, it works lower back into the middle of the range. Let me put this back where I went, Okay, and if I add the |
| 47 | 00:08:59,070 --> 00:09:05,160 | annotations you'll see right there. |
| 48 | 00:09:07,500 --> 00:09:18,060 | I sold short at 3940 and three quarters. And I took four of them off at 39 08 and three quarters, middle range. And |
| 49 | 00:09:25,080 --> 00:09:42,030 | let's see there still is a position layer with partials taken off already. Okay, and the limit order down here at 3035 It doesn't matter if it goes down or now I |
| 50 | 00:09:42,030 --> 00:09:52,950 | don't care but I have a position in play should do so. I want everyone to understand that there are people out there obviously want to say stupid things |
| 51 | 00:09:52,950 --> 00:10:01,110 | because they either want to get a rise out of me or they're they feel that their competition and they want to get in you know a lot more tension for themselves. |
| 52 | 00:10:01,230 --> 00:10:11,460 | Honestly, you know, if you want to build a tension around yourself, just do things that warrant people's attention placed on you. But for anyone that |
| 53 | 00:10:11,640 --> 00:10:21,750 | obviously did not spend time with me today, this is going to be rather boring, it's going to be pointless to you. But I walked through all of the things that |
| 54 | 00:10:21,780 --> 00:10:32,700 | days like this, where it's choppy, okay, where it's just going back and forth, back and forth. This was not read wrong, I purposely took everybody in to the |
| 55 | 00:10:32,700 --> 00:10:39,600 | marketplace through their own chart and told them to think about what was going on in their own mind what other traders would be thinking. So that way, you |
| 56 | 00:10:39,600 --> 00:10:49,770 | could really capture what it feels like to be in there looking for your own setups and try to think critically about it. I outlined in advance where the |
| 57 | 00:10:49,770 --> 00:10:57,450 | setup based on the things I teach up here where it runs, the buy stops, we pair with that, and then pullback to the middle range. And it does so beautifully. |
| 58 | 00:10:58,920 --> 00:11:07,950 | All of this in here is really hard, choppy price action, it's very, very difficult to trade in those types of ranges, because they can come back on you |
| 59 | 00:11:07,950 --> 00:11:16,350 | stop you out and just go nowhere for a long period of time. So if you know what you're looking for in terms of what the algorithm is going to do, and the |
| 60 | 00:11:16,350 --> 00:11:26,550 | algorithm on days like this, this is called a consolidation day. And what happens is this, the market starts trading creates an initial range, and then |
| 61 | 00:11:26,550 --> 00:11:37,560 | stays in that range until the afternoon, at three o'clock. It used to be the bond close that started this whole thing. But now it's just three o'clock that |
| 62 | 00:11:37,560 --> 00:11:49,770 | four o'clock when equities closed the closing bell, that sets the tone for on closed orders. So what that means is what was going on prior to three o'clock, |
| 63 | 00:11:49,890 --> 00:11:58,110 | the market was rallying up, what did it go up for the buy side liquidity, but traders gonna look at that as a breakout to go higher. And they're going to pair |
| 64 | 00:11:58,110 --> 00:12:07,320 | that with the market participants that are considered smart money. So that's exactly what I outlined. This is exactly what transpired. Everybody in the |
| 65 | 00:12:08,280 --> 00:12:15,210 | Twitter feed, were following along. I mean, granted, there were a few people, and you can go through and see who they were, they weren't really paying |
| 66 | 00:12:15,210 --> 00:12:23,670 | attention because they came into the conversation late and I went a long day today just tweeting, tweeting, tweeting, what you don't know is I had my son |
| 67 | 00:12:24,270 --> 00:12:35,430 | sitting next to me, and I'm outlining things to him. And I'm explaining what should take should take place rather, in the marketplace. Plus, I'm also sending |
| 68 | 00:12:35,430 --> 00:12:45,750 | out tweets. So my mind was divided between all of that. So it was very difficult not only to predict what you all were thinking and thinking about what should be |
| 69 | 00:12:45,780 --> 00:12:55,620 | transpiring in price action, plus, literally walking through with my son what to anticipate expect and see in price action through his lens, he was actually |
| 70 | 00:12:55,650 --> 00:13:07,710 | executing in a live account, he has his amp account linked right through trading view. So you can trade directly right from the chart. So he's plugging away on |
| 71 | 00:13:07,710 --> 00:13:19,440 | my laptop right next to me. And his account was able to grow from $6,000 at the beginning of the week. Now it's at $10,000. That's real money, that's live |
| 72 | 00:13:19,440 --> 00:13:31,020 | money. And, you know, when I, when I hear about people that say the stuff that I teach doesn't work, or if I can't call the market in when people sit there, and |
| 73 | 00:13:31,020 --> 00:13:40,590 | they spend the entire day with me. And I outline everything. And I outline this very specific trade here way before he even formed before the market even went |
| 74 | 00:13:40,590 --> 00:13:49,650 | up there, I'm explaining all that. It went right to where I said it was gonna go, run the stops, then sync it back down the middle arrange, go back and look |
| 75 | 00:13:49,650 --> 00:13:57,600 | at the tweets. I can't edit them. And I'm not deleting anything. Okay, so if I make a mistake of spelling here, you just gonna have to deal with it. Because, |
| 76 | 00:13:57,750 --> 00:14:04,740 | you know, I don't want any deleted tweets, zero. So if you'd like to follow me and all that stuff, just save everything, save it all, I |
| 77 | 00:14:04,740 --> 00:14:13,770 | don't care. The point is, I want you to save them as what exactly what I said the last time I was on Twitter, save my tweets, save them, because you're going |
| 78 | 00:14:13,770 --> 00:14:23,370 | to see things that prove obviously what I'm talking about, it proves that I have the visibility that I can see these things beforehand. And there's a lot of |
| 79 | 00:14:23,370 --> 00:14:32,250 | people out there that will just not want to put the work into learning this because it seems too hard. They just want to put an indicator on the chart and |
| 80 | 00:14:32,280 --> 00:14:42,210 | you know, that's all I want. Give me a MACD give me a stochastic moving average, and we'll call it a day. But they don't give you logic and narrative. They just |
| 81 | 00:14:42,210 --> 00:14:54,330 | give you a crunching of the numbers. And that type of thing is, in my opinion, not very beneficial because you're you're beating up the data of price action |
| 82 | 00:14:54,390 --> 00:15:03,180 | versus reading in understanding what the tape is. And that's exactly what I was doing today with everybody on Twitter. So there is an application that I was |
| 83 | 00:15:03,210 --> 00:15:11,970 | made aware of on Twitter that allow someone to do, I think, if I'm not mistaken, they call my space or spaces. Or if I said that wrong, forgive me. I'm not going |
| 84 | 00:15:11,970 --> 00:15:21,420 | to edit this video. But apparently, there's something on the Twitter app that you can kind of like talk. And I think it's just audio where you just talk and |
| 85 | 00:15:21,420 --> 00:15:29,490 | people that are, I guess, following you on Twitter, they can hear you talk. So I guess, in a way, it could be like an ICT Squawk Box, and I can kind of like, |
| 86 | 00:15:30,000 --> 00:15:42,210 | talk out loud about what I'm looking at what I think is useful. It's not a trade set up, obviously, or a signal service type thing, because that's not what I do. |
| 87 | 00:15:42,480 --> 00:15:51,120 | And I don't do those things. So we were studying price action together over my shoulder through tweets. And this was the move I was outlining well in advance |
| 88 | 00:15:51,120 --> 00:16:00,600 | earlier in the day, I was setting the stage for all this back and forth motion, that they're going to drive a higher to squeeze out traders that were already |
| 89 | 00:16:00,600 --> 00:16:12,420 | short from previous day, and trail, the stop loss rate above the old high back here, they bumped it here on a very shallow run, let me take this off, they |
| 90 | 00:16:12,420 --> 00:16:13,050 | bumped it on |
| 91 | 00:16:20,220 --> 00:16:27,810 | these relative equal highs, as it dropped down the trail, their stop loss, those that are short, said the granite and bumped it on a shallow basis. And then one |
| 92 | 00:16:27,810 --> 00:16:37,620 | more time, they ran it up in there and clear them out real nice. So the logic I was teaching was that would be utilized for smart money at the close between |
| 93 | 00:16:37,620 --> 00:16:47,940 | three o'clock and four o'clock. So they ran it up there. All the buy orders that were resting above here, or here in the form of protecting short stops, or not |
| 94 | 00:16:47,940 --> 00:16:57,420 | sort of stops or positions acting as their stop loss order. When the market trades above that those buy stops that are protective in nature, they become a |
| 95 | 00:16:57,420 --> 00:17:08,730 | rushing liquidity wave, okay, of willing buyers on the market. So willing buyers at the market, at three o'clock on a day like this where it's consolidated, it's |
| 96 | 00:17:08,730 --> 00:17:17,400 | gonna want to go back to the middle of a range. And that's why I posted into the study the middle of the range, that's age range, okay. So when you look at that |
| 97 | 00:17:17,400 --> 00:17:29,190 | type of event, it's going to range bound train between years, the 930 or so right? There, okay, so the low of the day, they're in the hive day, there's a |
| 98 | 00:17:29,190 --> 00:17:40,170 | split that in the middle, there's your midpoint, and it's going to want to gravitate back to that. So when you look at price action days like this, and if |
| 99 | 00:17:40,170 --> 00:17:47,940 | you're caught up in it, you don't you're dealing or you feel like he's just being chopped up, wait until three o'clock, because many times at three o'clock |
| 100 | 00:17:47,940 --> 00:17:57,600 | to four, the algorithm will do something where it goes outside the bounds of the daily range like it did here. Okay, trades up into it, and then rams it down. |
| 101 | 00:17:57,690 --> 00:18:05,010 | And nobody's really allowed to make any money. Anyone that was long, breaking out here gets raked across the coals. Anyone that's short gets knocked out with |
| 102 | 00:18:05,010 --> 00:18:15,630 | a stop loss in a losing position. And most of the time traders are too afraid to go in here going short way are people that like myself outlined today, in front |
| 103 | 00:18:15,630 --> 00:18:30,090 | of 20,000 people. They all seen it, they all watched me call it and there it is. There's my fill. And there's the middle arrange, partial, and I got to inflict. |
| 104 | 00:18:30,810 --> 00:18:39,600 | And just for the sake of completeness, I'm just gonna take one of them off while I'm doing this recording. So that we don't have to worry about it at all, you |
| 105 | 00:18:39,600 --> 00:18:52,110 | can go to my stop and or go to my limit. And either one is fine by me. I don't care. Okay. So I'm going to try to do a little bit of tomorrow session, I'm not |
| 106 | 00:18:52,110 --> 00:19:00,960 | going to spend the entire day obviously, because I have other things that take care of it I scheduled in today, because I had to work with my son is analysis |
| 107 | 00:19:00,960 --> 00:19:13,020 | and learning all that stuff. So I was very proud to see him pushing the button on his account. He did very, very well had one or two hairy moments where he |
| 108 | 00:19:13,020 --> 00:19:25,170 | wasn't thinking like I was hoping he'd be thinking and had a losing trade was able to recoup that and push this account to over $10,000. So I'm very proud to |
| 109 | 00:19:25,740 --> 00:19:37,440 | see him engaging and doing his own thing and trying to figure out this stuff on his own. So yeah, I think we'll talk a little bit through that Twitter |
| 110 | 00:19:37,440 --> 00:19:47,160 | application tomorrow. I don't know how long go. But we'll see what we get from that. And I think that's going to be it for this one. And so I'll talk to you |
| 111 | 00:19:47,160 --> 00:19:48,600 | next time. Be safe. |