ICT YT - 2022-05-14 - ICT Mentorship 2022 Episode 27 - Counter Trend Ideas.srt
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2022-05-14 10:04
| 1 | 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:30,720 | ICT: Hi folks, welcome back. This is our 27th episode of the continuing series of the free 2022 Iced Tea mentorship on YouTube. Alright, so mastek daily chart |
| 2 | 00:00:30,720 --> 00:00:43,230 | for June 2022. And here we have Friday's trading, okay. Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday, Monday. So we had a nice little decline down in this week. |
| 3 | 00:00:43,230 --> 00:00:53,520 | And then Friday, we have somewhat of a retracement. If you've been following my community posts on the YouTube channel, I mentioned this morning, that the |
| 4 | 00:00:53,550 --> 00:01:10,740 | 12,553 level is to clean. And you can kind of see it in here, like look at the high on this candle. It's 12,005 47. And then here there's highs 12,553. So I'm |
| 5 | 00:01:10,740 --> 00:01:20,100 | using this as the higher one. But these relatively equal highs. So I'm looking at. So I'm, I'm thinking that it could draw there. Now I was giving him the |
| 6 | 00:01:20,100 --> 00:01:30,960 | opportunity to do so today, based on what I showed in the short little vignettes posted on my video section. I was out and about today. So obviously I was |
| 7 | 00:01:30,960 --> 00:01:42,870 | sharing what I could my phone, I don't generally trade on the phone, I can manage the position. But I'm not generally trying to enter trades and such. But |
| 8 | 00:01:44,010 --> 00:01:54,180 | I made a mistake today. And I was trying to exit as I'll talk about in a moment we get into lower timeframes, but I was showing segments I mean recording where |
| 9 | 00:01:54,180 --> 00:02:00,000 | the market was what it was doing when I was entering the whole business and you'll actually see the execution errors and all that business here tonight, but |
| 10 | 00:02:00,900 --> 00:02:11,250 | the relative equal highs that was the draw on liquidity. Now the draw on liquidity does not need to be traded to to have a profitable framework or setup. |
| 11 | 00:02:11,640 --> 00:02:21,600 | Okay, so what do I mean by that? Well, if we're below this objective, and I'm thinking in the bridge, you thinking the same thing, if you think that markets |
| 12 | 00:02:21,600 --> 00:02:32,670 | going to draw up to that level, whether it be today or into next week, you look for a setup that will allow you some kind of participation in this expansion |
| 13 | 00:02:32,700 --> 00:02:42,630 | towards that it doesn't need to get there, as you'll soon see, we're gonna drop down into the hourly chart. Alright, so here's the hourly chart, you can see |
| 14 | 00:02:42,990 --> 00:02:53,550 | relatively equal highs up in here, but at the high of that candle there. That's the 12,553 and a quarter level. Okay, so that's what I'm framing it on. And we |
| 15 | 00:02:53,550 --> 00:03:09,630 | traded down, sort of the run higher with a shift in market structure here. And then just notice how we have had this low, this low, swept, we came down below |
| 16 | 00:03:09,630 --> 00:03:19,530 | it came back above these relatively equal lows. And then we came back now try one more time to go lower and then rejected it notice that so as the market |
| 17 | 00:03:19,530 --> 00:03:27,990 | starting to trade higher, where is it likely to go? Well, we've already taken out a large pool of liquidity below these relatively cool lows, this a sell |
| 18 | 00:03:27,990 --> 00:03:40,260 | side. Okay. Now we're back above these relative equal lows. So where's my side? Clear, and obviously, right here, okay. Not really obvious in terms of any |
| 19 | 00:03:40,260 --> 00:03:47,550 | imbalance, and here because we already rebounds this area in there. So there's nothing really all that exciting except for a small little section here. So if |
| 20 | 00:03:47,550 --> 00:03:55,770 | it's going to go up to this area here, my thought processes, there's likely to plug this punch through and take the by stop stressing about here. So that's the |
| 21 | 00:03:55,950 --> 00:04:06,300 | draw on liquidity. Just think of it like a big magnet, drawing price up towards it. Okay. So, we're gonna drop down into a 15 minute timeframe. |
| 22 | 00:04:14,760 --> 00:04:26,100 | Alright, so here's a 15 minute timeframe. And here's Friday the 13th. You scared? I'm scared. So we have the market trade here lower low, low. So this |
| 23 | 00:04:26,100 --> 00:04:34,950 | right here may trip you up. But this right here was a 930. In the morning manipulation. What takes up this overnight London low creates the manipulation |
| 24 | 00:04:34,980 --> 00:04:44,400 | idea than rallies. I was not available during this time. So I didn't take any trades. As you'll see. There's no trades in this area. And then the retracement |
| 25 | 00:04:44,400 --> 00:04:55,740 | in here in the afternoon. That's what I was looking for. So I wanted to see that type of idea. So I'm going to add the annotations to the chart now. Alright, so |
| 26 | 00:04:55,740 --> 00:05:09,600 | here's the five minute chart. Here's the overnight Monon lows 930 We run through it, taking up the sell side here, and then starts to rally. All this rallying up |
| 27 | 00:05:09,600 --> 00:05:24,090 | here, I was not able to participate in the market trades lower down into the range between this low in this high. What is it trading to discount. So I'm |
| 28 | 00:05:24,090 --> 00:05:40,440 | going to go into this area a little bit tighter. Okay, so you can see, here's our consolidation, it drops down, creates the low of the day power three. So |
| 29 | 00:05:40,440 --> 00:05:53,190 | it's accumulating long positions, manipulating early Long's out of the market, taking out the stops overnight, then rallying. And then I'm looking for the |
| 30 | 00:05:53,190 --> 00:06:01,140 | continuation up to take out the relative equal highs here, because I think I'm still going to see continuation in the afternoon. So I want to buy this discount |
| 31 | 00:06:01,140 --> 00:06:11,490 | market. And I'm going to be buying inside of this fair value gap, because it's at or below equilibrium between this low and the high. Alright, so added the |
| 32 | 00:06:11,490 --> 00:06:23,790 | invitation to justice because my obsessive compulsive disorder is flaring. It's like a spider sense, folks. Can't help it. Alright, so we have the New York |
| 33 | 00:06:24,000 --> 00:06:33,540 | session open at 930 in the morning, New York local time. Great to the LOA day rallies. Great to the high here. At what time? What time is this candle here? |
| 34 | 00:06:33,990 --> 00:06:44,880 | It's 1210. That's that lunchtime mythology. It creates usually a retracement of some sort, or consolidation, then it retraces lower. And then here is 130. Right |
| 35 | 00:06:44,880 --> 00:06:55,830 | about there. So 130 the algorithm will start seeking liquidity. If it's going to continue higher. What's it likely to do? Seek sell side? So where sell side? |
| 36 | 00:06:55,860 --> 00:07:06,330 | Well, we have relatively equal lows here. But is that a discount from here to here? No. So this dashed line here, it's in purple, I have that noted at |
| 37 | 00:07:06,360 --> 00:07:17,310 | equilibrium. That's essentially the same thing as taking the FIB from here to here, and that's 50%. Okay, so now we have equilibrium there, the market drops |
| 38 | 00:07:17,310 --> 00:07:30,210 | down into equilibrium, and then below it into the very gap here. This candles high, this candles low. That's your imbalance. Here, a gap is here. So the |
| 39 | 00:07:30,210 --> 00:07:49,890 | market drops out into here at two o'clock in the afternoon to five to 15 to 20 to 25 and then displacement. Okay, we'll see this fair value gap on the lower |
| 40 | 00:07:49,890 --> 00:07:59,820 | timeframes. I'm going to go through and let you see it. But this displace on the outside is a shift in market structure in a day, that's like Libby bullish is |
| 41 | 00:07:59,820 --> 00:08:11,280 | counter trend. So hard timeframe. We're working with logic that it's probably going to be a retracement because we've been down for a long time now. And most |
| 42 | 00:08:11,280 --> 00:08:21,150 | people are probably going to want to get out over the weekend. So the algorithm is going to start squeezing on them to get their positions squared before the |
| 43 | 00:08:21,150 --> 00:08:35,070 | close of Friday. So in this area here, we're gonna drop down into a four minute chart. Okay, no fair value get shown here except for the small little area there |
| 44 | 00:08:35,070 --> 00:08:49,950 | now by itself. Yeah, that's possible. Get small little return into there. I'm not looking at that. Okay. Go down into a three minute chart. Okay. There's a |
| 45 | 00:08:49,950 --> 00:09:04,950 | gap there. Again, you can see that candle right there, that would be fine if that's what you're looking for. Then two minute chart. There is a similar chart |
| 46 | 00:09:04,950 --> 00:09:05,370 | back. |
| 47 | 00:09:07,170 --> 00:09:18,900 | Kind of either way I want folks. Alright, so we have down close candles in here, order block. Fair Value got this candle is low. This candle is high. There's our |
| 48 | 00:09:18,900 --> 00:09:36,570 | imbalance and what are blocked, it trades down drops into that. And I'm going to show you the executions here so as it's dropping down in here, you can see I |
| 49 | 00:09:36,570 --> 00:09:49,830 | have hovered top of this thing about 36 contracts. And the assumption is we're using a discount broker, something like amp futures on that repping amp futures |
| 50 | 00:09:49,830 --> 00:09:59,490 | by the way, but they have really low margins. So that would be allowed for something with the equity was used. In this example today. These are paper |
| 51 | 00:09:59,490 --> 00:10:09,450 | trades. That way you guys know for compliance reasons in full disclosure, I'm illustrating execution in theory, okay, I'm also showing you what I was doing |
| 52 | 00:10:09,480 --> 00:10:18,450 | when I was on Twitter, when I did use MT four, which I don't do anymore, I haven't used MT four in years, okay, I don't need to have a fake MT four server |
| 53 | 00:10:18,630 --> 00:10:28,350 | to be able to do this, okay, this is what I was doing. And I was trading it and building up and building up and building it up. So in a matter of a week or so, |
| 54 | 00:10:28,800 --> 00:10:39,060 | I've taken $100,000 account took it over $300,000. Okay, and you'll see that here in a second. But as it was dropping down, dropping down, all this candle |
| 55 | 00:10:39,060 --> 00:10:48,450 | here, I was buying at the beginning of the fair value gap. And that the middle of it, you know, shined get into the lower portions of it, but it didn't quite |
| 56 | 00:10:48,450 --> 00:10:58,440 | get down there. So the Faraday gap in this shaded area, that's what's being shown here. Take that off, for clarity sake. And we dropped in here, I mentioned |
| 57 | 00:10:58,650 --> 00:11:09,390 | in the small little vignette, again, I've done three videos today, that were basically silent, put a little bit of a music thing on it just to I don't know, |
| 58 | 00:11:09,390 --> 00:11:17,160 | I was testing it out. I was really disappointed in play the entire time that video is playing, but whatever. The idea was, I was showing you that when we |
| 59 | 00:11:17,160 --> 00:11:25,740 | went into the order block that it was going to rally up, okay, and it rallied up and then I took off 10, a small, small little vignette shows me closing 10 |
| 60 | 00:11:25,770 --> 00:11:41,910 | contracts there. And I was looking for it to maybe stage a run up into that 12 FeiFei, three level that I mentioned on AI community posts, okay. But obviously, |
| 61 | 00:11:41,910 --> 00:11:51,510 | we were running out of time today. And I messed up on the close of the 20 contracts, because I wanted to take off 20 above here. And I tried to put it in |
| 62 | 00:11:51,510 --> 00:11:59,160 | as a limit order, but it ended up closing his market. So what I should have done was and I said this to my private group, too. I'm working with TradingView, but |
| 63 | 00:11:59,160 --> 00:12:07,410 | I'm used to using actual live platforms. So the things that I can do, and other places I can't necessarily do here. And because I'm doing it on my phone, and I |
| 64 | 00:12:07,410 --> 00:12:15,930 | was out doing other things, it real real life. And this is the reason why you don't want to be trading off of your phone. Okay. But anyway, I ended up closing |
| 65 | 00:12:16,470 --> 00:12:33,720 | the 20 here. So I didn't get it above that 12 430 level I was trying to aim for. So I missed it there. And then I close more here, in here. And then finally, |
| 66 | 00:12:33,990 --> 00:12:50,370 | late in the day, I had one left, and I just took it off here. Okay. So that's the business there. And I want you to look at how the market created this |
| 67 | 00:12:50,400 --> 00:13:03,060 | counter trend idea. But still using my fair value gap principle and concept. Liquidity was above here. The day was bullish, the algorithm kept pricing higher |
| 68 | 00:13:03,060 --> 00:13:10,890 | and higher and higher. And the logic was delivered here. So look at where the arrows are for entries. |
| 69 | 00:13:16,830 --> 00:13:25,980 | And this was a failure on my part, I didn't get the price actually wanted. None of these closures are actually above the 12 430 level. That was I think the |
| 70 | 00:13:25,980 --> 00:13:35,640 | closest one. Yeah, that was the closest one there. So and I had one leftover here. And that was the final bit of business, I was leaving it just in case some |
| 71 | 00:13:35,640 --> 00:13:46,530 | freaky occurrence where it would take us up in some parabolic run into 12 Phi Phi three. But this wasn't in the cards today, we're gonna see how you can frame |
| 72 | 00:13:46,560 --> 00:13:57,690 | what I'm teaching inside of a counter trend model, if that's what you are, by nature a contrarian. If you want to be trading with the highest probability and |
| 73 | 00:13:57,720 --> 00:14:12,750 | in sync with the early session move, then trade exactly how about line the principles around that 839 30 window, okay. I'm trying to do my best to give you |
| 74 | 00:14:12,810 --> 00:14:23,220 | a little bit of freedom to try to make it your own and inspire you also that these fair value gaps are useful if you know what the bias is. Okay, and I know |
| 75 | 00:14:23,220 --> 00:14:30,240 | some of you are still posting in the comment section. I'm still struggling with bias. It's only because you haven't worked at it long enough. Okay, you're not |
| 76 | 00:14:30,240 --> 00:14:38,940 | going to watch a dozen of my videos and come away. Now I know exactly how to do bias. You have to go into the charts and study each day back testing what is |
| 77 | 00:14:38,940 --> 00:14:48,420 | back testing, going back and look at moves like this. Okay, marking them up on your chart. You can do it either using the replay button watching them paint |
| 78 | 00:14:48,420 --> 00:14:59,550 | partially. Or you can go back in hindsight and markup your chart like this. This is all back testing. All this is is me showing you what I actually did. Now I |
| 79 | 00:14:59,580 --> 00:15:06,600 | was going to be facetious and talk about this. For those that didn't really see the videos that I posted today, we're actually did the pushing of the button |
| 80 | 00:15:06,600 --> 00:15:17,430 | here. The idea of me seeing it before it happens. That's proof of concept. And it's proof of understanding. Okay, so I'm the author of this algorithm, so I can |
| 81 | 00:15:17,820 --> 00:15:27,990 | operate in it very efficiently. You as a student of mine, you have to understand my language first. And then you go into the charts, and you study with that |
| 82 | 00:15:27,990 --> 00:15:39,480 | language. And you'll be able to see repeating phenomenon. And because you're able to do this, in your own leisure, you collect these examples of hindsight |
| 83 | 00:15:39,480 --> 00:15:48,750 | movement with all of your annotations and your points of interest that you studied and see in your observations anywhere in a chart where it's empty space, |
| 84 | 00:15:48,990 --> 00:15:58,860 | you want to utilise that and have any kind of observation or encouragement to yourself. And you want to tell yourself in those commentaries that you saw this |
| 85 | 00:15:58,890 --> 00:16:09,300 | coming. Okay, and what this does is it tricks your brain. It's self talk, okay. It's one of the things that I actually used to overcome agoraphobia, which was |
| 86 | 00:16:09,570 --> 00:16:19,320 | the fear of being around other people, because I had extreme anxiety that started, obviously, from trading, because I've built up this large image of |
| 87 | 00:16:19,320 --> 00:16:30,360 | myself, and then 2001, and all that stuff happened, okay. And I was afraid of a lot of things. And I had serious anxiety attacks, panic attacks that would come |
| 88 | 00:16:30,360 --> 00:16:43,860 | on, out of nowhere. The coping skills that I learned to deal with generalised anxiety, I found that were very useful in teaching my students. And it was |
| 89 | 00:16:43,860 --> 00:16:52,800 | simply by taking positive self talk, placing that into your back testing, where your note taking your by all |
| 90 | 00:16:54,540 --> 00:17:05,880 | face value of it, you're lying to yourself in these posts in your back testing. So in your study, journal, only you are seeing, but you're tricking your brain |
| 91 | 00:17:05,880 --> 00:17:12,870 | and your subconscious, because you're writing it out in your own words, you're studying, you're looking at it, your subconscious is retaining the image, but |
| 92 | 00:17:12,870 --> 00:17:22,440 | it's also retaining what you're saying it. So when you come back to it at the end of the week, or the previous weeks, back testing law journals, you read |
| 93 | 00:17:22,440 --> 00:17:31,410 | them. And when you read them to yourself, you're reading your own word, saying I saw this setting up where this was likely to drop down here. And I was expecting |
| 94 | 00:17:31,410 --> 00:17:38,040 | this turn here, because the fair value get, I wanted to see this displacement. And it occurred just like I was expecting, and it comes back down in and allows |
| 95 | 00:17:38,040 --> 00:17:46,110 | me an opportunity to go long than I expected the market to move aggressively away from this area and start working towards the short term highs. And I wanted |
| 96 | 00:17:46,110 --> 00:17:57,630 | to take something off above halfway high to low, I want to take a premium profit scaling. And that's what that is there. So you're pouring yourself into the |
| 97 | 00:17:57,630 --> 00:18:06,180 | chart with your annotations for back testing. And you're doing it in such a way where you're tricking your subconscious, like you expected this to happen. And |
| 98 | 00:18:06,180 --> 00:18:13,740 | over time, when you do that, you're recording this subconsciously, you don't realise you're doing it. But by doing these things over and over and over again, |
| 99 | 00:18:13,770 --> 00:18:21,120 | it activates your reticular activating system. It's the same thing happens when you buy a car, you go out the next day and all sudden, it seems like everybody |
| 100 | 00:18:21,120 --> 00:18:29,460 | else bought the same car. The only difference is is you've been more sensitive to that because it's more meaningful to you. So these charts will take on that |
| 101 | 00:18:29,460 --> 00:18:39,360 | same characteristic. When you make them more meaningful to you. How do you do that you place your personality and your interest in the chart. So everything |
| 102 | 00:18:39,360 --> 00:18:45,900 | here I'm giving you a narrative here, you would do the same thing, just typing it out and putting in there and then screen capturing it and storing it in your |
| 103 | 00:18:45,930 --> 00:18:57,960 | journal or printing it out and putting in your journal. Those things over time, will start building on your subconscious as pseudo memories. So critics that |
| 104 | 00:18:57,960 --> 00:19:08,100 | hear me say this, you're like, Oh, you're you know, this fraud telling you to lie to yourself. I'm being honest, you are lying in the chart. When you do your |
| 105 | 00:19:08,100 --> 00:19:17,910 | annotations for study purposes. You're tricking your brain, like you had experience seeing this happen. But because over time you're doing that your |
| 106 | 00:19:17,910 --> 00:19:25,770 | subconscious will retain that. And then when you start seeing it live, it will remember Hey, I remember that because I did that before when you technically |
| 107 | 00:19:25,770 --> 00:19:37,830 | really didn't. But then now you have pseudo experience. It sounds strange, like it couldn't possibly work like this, but it does. Our brains are extremely |
| 108 | 00:19:38,460 --> 00:19:48,510 | intricate. They're very powerful, but they can be short circuited a little bit and used in an advantageous way of studying. And this is one way I teach my |
| 109 | 00:19:48,510 --> 00:19:56,940 | students in mentorship. And this is what I'm trying to suggest that you do for your back testing. All you have to do is look at old moves, study them annotate |
| 110 | 00:19:56,940 --> 00:20:07,680 | your chart is as rich as you want that chart to be If that's what you're doing, you're trying to make it as meaningful to you as you possibly can. And over |
| 111 | 00:20:07,680 --> 00:20:20,040 | time, you'll create a measure of pseudo experience that will build upon over time how much time it I don't know it, although you're going to develop at your |
| 112 | 00:20:20,040 --> 00:20:29,910 | own pace. And you're going to arrive at full understanding, right on time. So it might be a couple of weeks for some of you may take a year for others may take a |
| 113 | 00:20:29,910 --> 00:20:39,060 | little bit longer than that. It depends on what you pour yourself into, by doing it. And I'll leave that part out for you to decide how much effort you're going |
| 114 | 00:20:39,060 --> 00:20:47,970 | to put into it. But I wanted to share something today and kind of like answer those individuals that like to say that empty for rented servers were used and |
| 115 | 00:20:47,970 --> 00:21:09,780 | stuff. And I don't need that, folks. I mean, it's not necessary. So let's go over here. As you can see, there's 100,000, in there, some red near folks yet to |
| 116 | 00:21:09,780 --> 00:21:11,310 | back to back losing trades. |
| 117 | 00:21:18,780 --> 00:21:33,600 | Okay, that was the business. Okay, that was since the sixth of this month, our 1000 accounts to 354,000 paper trading, obviously. But that's what I was doing |
| 118 | 00:21:33,600 --> 00:21:44,340 | on Twitter, all those years have shown and shown and shown. And this proves concept, it proves that these things work. I'm looking at live data when I'm |
| 119 | 00:21:44,340 --> 00:21:52,680 | doing this, this is actually no delay, you can see there's no D up here, there's no little dots showing it's as real as real can be okay, if I can't see these |
| 120 | 00:21:52,680 --> 00:22:01,170 | things happening before it happens, it will fail. But if I can see them live, forming, and I have an understanding what the algorithm is going to do, then I |
| 121 | 00:22:01,170 --> 00:22:11,730 | should be able to operate like this. And I saw a comment today on one of the video vignettes I did. And can we get past the drama in the proving who made |
| 122 | 00:22:11,730 --> 00:22:22,890 | money? I'm not sure what the poster intended with that, because I thought that was what you wanted to see when you came here. Like, why would you come to my |
| 123 | 00:22:22,890 --> 00:22:30,210 | channel, or anyone else's channel that has anything to do with technical analysis or trading? If they can't prove they can do what they say they can do? |
| 124 | 00:22:31,050 --> 00:22:42,750 | All I'm doing is sharing my experience in the prowess I have. If I can't do this, I'll fall on my face. I can do it. And I want to be an encouragement to |
| 125 | 00:22:42,750 --> 00:22:54,000 | those that are genuinely concerned because they see stupid stuff posted on the Internet. Folks, listen, I don't know how much of this you need to see before |
| 126 | 00:22:54,000 --> 00:23:01,860 | you finally get over it. But I don't mind doing it. Okay, I don't mind doing it. I enjoyed doing this. I enjoy sharing it. And I know it's an encouragement to |
| 127 | 00:23:01,860 --> 00:23:10,560 | people that had a little bit of doubt. Say, Hey, look, you know, did you really use an empty for rented server on Twitter? Because we don't really see it. We |
| 128 | 00:23:10,560 --> 00:23:20,700 | just hear other people talking about Well, here's, again, more proof that listen, this is just a matter of like, a week or so. Okay? In five and a half |
| 129 | 00:23:20,700 --> 00:23:32,010 | weeks or six weeks, I can easily do what I'm doing here and it compounds over and over and over again. Okay? Just because I'm doing it with a demo account, |
| 130 | 00:23:32,580 --> 00:23:39,540 | doesn't mean that you're going to be able to go out there and do it too, with a live account. The only thing I'm showing you here is I understand what I'm |
| 131 | 00:23:39,540 --> 00:23:48,750 | doing. So I think that's gonna be it for tonight. And I will touch base with you Lord willing, next Tuesday for another lecture. And probably a little bit longer |
| 132 | 00:23:48,750 --> 00:23:52,200 | video then. Okay, until then, enjoy your weekend. Be safe. |