ICT YT - 2022-04-30 - ICT Mentorship 2022 Episode 22.srt
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2022-04-30 15:54
| 1 | 00:00:05,160 --> 00:00:17,580 | ICT: Alright folks, welcome back. This is the ICT mentorship free YouTube mentorship. For 2022. Hope you're doing well hope you had a wonderful |
| 2 | 00:00:17,670 --> 00:00:28,980 | opportunity to study and learn this week and keeping up with the lessons. So we are looking at the E Mini s&p daily chart, this is June delivery contract month |
| 3 | 00:00:29,790 --> 00:00:41,730 | for 2022. And I want to kind of like, bring you back up to speed to what we were looking for over the last weeks or month or so. Remember, back here, we had that |
| 4 | 00:00:41,730 --> 00:00:52,140 | bearish order block, I outlined that as an area to watch that and we're entering a seasonal tendency, so we're expecting lower prices, we got lower prices, I |
| 5 | 00:00:52,140 --> 00:01:02,790 | showed you the relationship between the dollar because it's risk off. So we have all the decline taking place in the equities markets. And I said that we would |
| 6 | 00:01:02,790 --> 00:01:14,670 | be likely to draw down into this relative equal low. So I'm going to kind of like do things in the trading view platform. So that way, sadly, some of you |
| 7 | 00:01:14,670 --> 00:01:23,190 | folks that are asking questions in the comment section, like how do I do this and where I was at some of the platform. Admittedly, most everything I know |
| 8 | 00:01:23,190 --> 00:01:36,420 | about trading view, my own students have taught me. So there's going to be a comment posted and pinned by me on the link this video. It'll be trading view |
| 9 | 00:01:36,420 --> 00:01:48,150 | tips, okay? If you have a tip that you want to share with the viewers that are new to trading view, please, by all means, just make a post and outline it as |
| 10 | 00:01:48,180 --> 00:01:58,200 | best you can. I'm sure there'll be well received, I might even learn something too. Alright, so we're looking at how the market did in fact, trade down into |
| 11 | 00:01:58,200 --> 00:02:07,800 | our relative equal lows. So this was the draw on liquidity. Okay. Now, when I train my students, and when new students come to me, the first thing they want |
| 12 | 00:02:07,800 --> 00:02:17,700 | to know is how to pick the right order block. Because they know it's one of my concepts they want to know, which is the entry candle. What's the entry point? |
| 13 | 00:02:18,540 --> 00:02:30,990 | Where do I get in it? Okay. And that's the easiest thing out of all the learning, okay? Once you understand what the markets likely to do, where it's |
| 14 | 00:02:30,990 --> 00:02:43,380 | going to draw to, okay, where's it going? Why should it get there? Okay? If you do majority of your studying, and watching the tape, okay, reading the tape, |
| 15 | 00:02:43,800 --> 00:02:54,510 | which is kind of like what I'm going to outline and showcase in the live streams in May. Just before I get any further in this conversation, the live streams |
| 16 | 00:02:54,510 --> 00:03:08,850 | will only be in May, I'm not trying to make a ongoing thing. This I don't want to promise, you know, an ongoing thing. But I am going to showcase some things |
| 17 | 00:03:08,880 --> 00:03:17,970 | in live sessions. That way you can see how to train yourself to look for these things. Okay. I will not be giving you trade recommendations, okay, I will not |
| 18 | 00:03:17,970 --> 00:03:26,760 | be entering trades in front of you. I'm gonna be outlining basically what you saw me do in his mentorship outlining where this is gonna go and it went there. |
| 19 | 00:03:28,620 --> 00:03:37,560 | I'm gonna be doing that with intraday charts. Okay, and I'm gonna point out certain areas to study, watch how price reacts right here and look for this type |
| 20 | 00:03:37,560 --> 00:03:48,240 | of thing to occur here. Because I want you to understand what it's doing. Why is it likely to do what I'm going to outline? Okay? The best thing that can happen |
| 21 | 00:03:48,240 --> 00:04:00,570 | is for me to get it wrong sometimes. Okay, so that way, it'll disarm you. It'll feel like okay, well, you know, if I don't get it, right. ICT himself didn't get |
| 22 | 00:04:00,570 --> 00:04:08,970 | it right here or there. Okay, so I'm going to do my best obviously, to try to educate you and show you what I think is going to happen. But invariably, |
| 23 | 00:04:09,570 --> 00:04:20,940 | there's instances is going to creep in, it's not going to be accurate, okay, I'm gonna read it wrong. And it's fine. Do not, do not take what I'm saying in my |
| 24 | 00:04:20,940 --> 00:04:31,050 | commentaries and or my opinions over the chart that's going to be live. Don't take that as trade advice, do not take a trade. And I'm gonna say this every |
| 25 | 00:04:31,050 --> 00:04:40,320 | single time I do the live stream. Don't act on it, because you don't know what I'm doing. You don't know what I'm viewing. You don't know what I'm trying to |
| 26 | 00:04:40,320 --> 00:04:49,860 | teach you. None of that. Okay. So you want to sit still and just observe and take notes. They will be recorded. They will be on the YouTube channel for those |
| 27 | 00:04:49,860 --> 00:04:54,990 | individuals that are not going to be able to be present. When Will those live streams take place? |
| 28 | 00:04:56,550 --> 00:05:05,700 | There will be a New York session between a I think I'll start around eight o'clock in the morning. So that way we can get the chart set up, I'll give you |
| 29 | 00:05:05,700 --> 00:05:15,090 | my views overnight what took place and what I think they cannot counter me present in a kind of like build the mindset, I will not be talking in the chat |
| 30 | 00:05:15,090 --> 00:05:22,650 | room. Okay, the little chat thing on the side, you know, you guys will be saying whatever you want to say, I don't care, I'm not going to be looking at that. |
| 31 | 00:05:22,890 --> 00:05:32,820 | Because it'll be a distraction, the agenda that I have for that particular day, it would be very distracting for me to, to read comments and questions. And |
| 32 | 00:05:33,390 --> 00:05:42,900 | because I know your question is important to all of you, no matter how simple it may be, I'll feel compelled to want to answer everything that flashes across the |
| 33 | 00:05:42,900 --> 00:05:53,400 | screen, and it will disrupt my concentration. So I won't be looking at the chat, okay. I'm not ignoring everybody. For the sake of being rude. I'm just ignoring |
| 34 | 00:05:53,400 --> 00:06:05,100 | everybody, so I can stay on task. Okay, so there's that. But we'll begin around eight o'clock in the morning. And we'll close it, you know, whenever I feel the |
| 35 | 00:06:05,100 --> 00:06:16,020 | need to do so. But I'll be willing to go up to 10 3011 o'clock, okay, which is a very long, long session. I know. They may not, although that way, I won't be |
| 36 | 00:06:16,020 --> 00:06:26,220 | doing it everyday either. So it'll be a handpick selected day in advance that you'll know about. And I'll post it on the Community tab on my YouTube channel. |
| 37 | 00:06:26,370 --> 00:06:37,230 | Okay. Alright, with all that stuff out of the way, let's get back into the nitty gritty here. So I outlined this area here in this low. And I said this would be |
| 38 | 00:06:37,230 --> 00:06:48,630 | the draw on liquidity. So when you're on trading view over here, there's a little segment where you can have a choice of certain things. Now you can do |
| 39 | 00:06:49,170 --> 00:06:58,650 | this. So it looks like this is your your Bullseye where the markets will draw to, you're aiming for that, in other words, or you can use the little magnet |
| 40 | 00:06:58,650 --> 00:07:12,210 | icon, I teach with that analogy, like up here. Imagine, you know, a magnet of some kind down here. And price is going to be drawn down to that level here. So |
| 41 | 00:07:12,210 --> 00:07:22,170 | this is where the liquidity was. And he tapped into it today. Right? He knew about it up here. He knew about the order block up here, you know about the |
| 42 | 00:07:22,170 --> 00:07:35,760 | seasonal tendency outlined. And we have this really nice decline here. So I'm going to take you into the marketplace and strip this down a little bit and give |
| 43 | 00:07:35,760 --> 00:07:38,310 | you some more details. So we're going to the hourly chart |
| 44 | 00:07:43,980 --> 00:07:44,730 | and |
| 45 | 00:07:52,259 --> 00:08:03,779 | this is why I do PowerPoint slides, it's real easy to get to where I want it to be. Alright, so we had a run here, yesterday just kept pumping higher, higher, |
| 46 | 00:08:03,779 --> 00:08:16,229 | higher, higher, higher, just fell short of this high. And then we had a decline. And then the normal pause and the gap down, then rallied back up. So between |
| 47 | 00:08:16,229 --> 00:08:28,049 | this candles low in this Campbell's opening, right in here, that's an imbalance coupled with an actual gap. So I want you to take a look at that. |
| 48 | 00:08:40,740 --> 00:08:53,250 | Okay, now, we have this candle here, small little piece of that one here, this one, this one, this one and this one, they go just above that area here. This is |
| 49 | 00:08:53,280 --> 00:09:05,190 | permissible price action. In other words, this is something you have to get used to, okay, look at the bodies of the candle. See how they're staying inside of |
| 50 | 00:09:05,190 --> 00:09:21,090 | that imbalance. It reaches for liquidity and stops on these wicks, but the bulk of the volume is being held inside of this imbalance. Notice that so now we have |
| 51 | 00:09:22,770 --> 00:09:38,670 | the market release, go to the downside. And then here is nine o'clock in the morning. I want to go into 830 Actually Cisco down to a 15 minute chart. So |
| 52 | 00:09:38,670 --> 00:09:52,110 | here's 930 That opening price here at 930. What's actually happening is the equities are opening up the stock market starts trading that's when you hear the |
| 53 | 00:09:52,110 --> 00:09:59,970 | bell ding ding ding you know, sudden everybody's clapping their hands on TV, whatever. That's what's occurring here. It's opening. So it's running a show |
| 54 | 00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:16,620 | Short Term high right here, and then breaks lower creates an imbalance here. So on the 15 minute timeframe, what do we see? Did it take a high out? Yes? Did it |
| 55 | 00:10:16,620 --> 00:10:26,070 | break below low? Yes. Was it displacement? Yes, it was energetic. Good. We trade back up into here. Yes. So in here, you could be a seller and get in sync with |
| 56 | 00:10:26,070 --> 00:10:35,250 | the run to try to get positioned for if you are a swing trader or short term trader, this could be your entry and an aim for that old, relatively equal low, |
| 57 | 00:10:35,250 --> 00:10:48,810 | which is that blue line here, remember, the two equal lows on the daily chart? I drew a line on this with this is here, okay. And random into it today? At 830. |
| 58 | 00:10:53,130 --> 00:10:55,830 | Right there, we're using the opening price. |
| 59 | 00:11:03,180 --> 00:11:15,300 | The price straight above it? Yes, it's in a premium. It's above an old high. That makes it a premium tip. I saw I believe it was the only and I apologize, I |
| 60 | 00:11:15,300 --> 00:11:22,290 | don't recall. And I didn't make a note of your name. So please don't be offended. But I know, I saw it where it was saying something to the effect that |
| 61 | 00:11:24,270 --> 00:11:37,980 | you don't understand how it could be in a premium. Because it's above an old high. Anytime the market trades above an old high, that is a short term premium. |
| 62 | 00:11:38,610 --> 00:11:51,810 | Because it's going into liquidity. Anytime the market trades below, an old low, that's a discount. Okay. Now just like the purposes of what people use, |
| 63 | 00:11:52,110 --> 00:12:02,730 | overbought, oversold indicators, things can be overbought and still go higher. Things can be oversold, or in a discount, and keep going lower. Okay. So that's |
| 64 | 00:12:02,730 --> 00:12:15,510 | why I'm suggesting that when people are studying price, they can't just assume that an indicator is overbought. So therefore, it's a good sell, or a shorting |
| 65 | 00:12:15,510 --> 00:12:27,420 | opportunity. It's not always. But if you understand the narrative, within market structure, market structure is not the answer. It helps you frame an idea. But |
| 66 | 00:12:27,420 --> 00:12:35,910 | the idea must be in alignment with the present narrative narrative is is why should the market go where you think it's gonna go? On that particular day, |
| 67 | 00:12:36,540 --> 00:12:45,960 | based on the climate, the economic calendar events, and the volatility that's being offered for that particular trading session or day. So these are all |
| 68 | 00:12:45,960 --> 00:12:53,100 | things that you're going to need to study. And I teach on this YouTube channel. And I'll teach a little bit more when we're doing a live session. Because it'll |
| 69 | 00:12:53,100 --> 00:13:00,150 | be more practical than that, where you're over my shoulder, you're looking at it just like I'm looking at it. And I'll give you my internal dialogue and kind of |
| 70 | 00:13:00,150 --> 00:13:10,410 | like what I'm thinking that is the most salient at the moment so that we Your attention is on the right things at the right time. But power three, which is |
| 71 | 00:13:10,410 --> 00:13:25,200 | the open, rally up or manipulation, creating high, and then the movement lower and in distribute their shorts below a layer, an area where there would be |
| 72 | 00:13:25,230 --> 00:13:38,130 | stops. So smart money would be selling short, the buy stops here, writing this out, and offloading their shorts to sell stocks below those relative equal lows. |
| 73 | 00:13:40,230 --> 00:13:47,550 | Remember, when we see these relative equal lows on the daily chart, traders are gonna look at that as a breakout. There's lots of traders out there that have |
| 74 | 00:13:47,550 --> 00:13:54,930 | long term trend following systems and models. And if it breaks below those areas, they want to be short. So that's going to flood the market with what |
| 75 | 00:13:56,490 --> 00:14:06,360 | market orders to sell at the market. Well, that's a perfect counterpart to smart money being shored up here, because they want to buy it at a lower price. And |
| 76 | 00:14:06,360 --> 00:14:16,170 | while up here, they're aiming down here. Is it hard to believe that when we were already outlining that last week, and the week before? No, we have visibility, |
| 77 | 00:14:16,170 --> 00:14:26,490 | we have the ability to forecast certain things that should repeat if the algorithm is in fact in control, and we understand what the algorithm is doing. |
| 78 | 00:14:27,180 --> 00:14:40,860 | And I'm suggesting that my experience should indicate that we have that does it deliver? Here it is. Okay, so you're taking the logic of certain principles and |
| 79 | 00:14:40,860 --> 00:14:50,880 | concepts and blending them with market structure. We're looking for lower prices and should reach for specific low, but also how does the present narrative allow |
| 80 | 00:14:50,880 --> 00:15:03,480 | for engagement with the daily range or power three? Everything I've taught you. So it's the open rally Smart my interest near the high today of all the opening, |
| 81 | 00:15:04,500 --> 00:15:25,080 | and they get out down here. And an important low in the market closes near the low today. Let's go into a five minute chart one, two relative equal highs, you |
| 82 | 00:15:25,080 --> 00:15:31,380 | see that. Now if you're looking at the lower timeframe charts and you get this, because it's no longer useful |
| 83 | 00:15:33,570 --> 00:15:42,270 | if you're looking at that like that, here's the opening price, you know, there's what resting above that buy side. So buy stocks or buy sell liquidity is the |
| 84 | 00:15:42,270 --> 00:15:51,570 | resting here. So it can run up. And just to the left of that also, you see these highs here, they're real close to one another too. So for good measure, they |
| 85 | 00:15:51,570 --> 00:15:59,610 | might want to come up here and clean that out. This is a little too much. I think it's too rich for the expectation to get to that high. But and here's |
| 86 | 00:15:59,610 --> 00:16:12,540 | reasonable, but here at least, okay, market punches up through Yes, it does take those out. Then it breaks down, comes more time back above the opening price, |
| 87 | 00:16:12,780 --> 00:16:22,710 | and then gives up the ghost and aggressively runs for the sell side below here. Now for some of you, that would be enough. Getting shored up here, buying back |
| 88 | 00:16:22,710 --> 00:16:30,090 | below the lows and being done and walking away. There's nothing wrong with that if that's your model. But we're going to take a closer look inside of this area |
| 89 | 00:16:30,090 --> 00:16:32,190 | here and see what we see. |
| 90 | 00:16:39,660 --> 00:16:45,000 | All right, it's dropped down into I'm just gonna go right to the one minute chart just to save time. |
| 91 | 00:16:58,710 --> 00:17:19,320 | All right. So we have in this area, what a market rainbow there's relative equal highs. Here they are here. The market runs up. And it breaks down right here. |
| 92 | 00:17:21,300 --> 00:17:33,180 | See that right here? That's a swing low. breaks below it was a displacement. Yes. Does it Mark come back up into this little area here? Yes. Is it about the |
| 93 | 00:17:33,180 --> 00:17:44,910 | opening price? Yes. Is that enough sugar this, you can be short there, you have to whether this one more run up into your entry, you may have a little bit of |
| 94 | 00:17:44,910 --> 00:17:54,450 | drawdown. But your stop loss if you're ending in this fair value gap. Your stop has to be above the very minimum, the candle that creates the fair value gap |
| 95 | 00:17:54,480 --> 00:18:06,450 | that's here. So your stock is going to be above that. For good measure conservative up here. Oh, but ICT that's a lot as a big stop. Well, look how |
| 96 | 00:18:06,450 --> 00:18:13,710 | volatile it is. You want to be knocked out of the trade prematurely? Or are you just concerned about making the maximum amount of money on your trade, |
| 97 | 00:18:14,520 --> 00:18:25,860 | dismissing the level of risk. That's what gamblers do. I'm not trying to teach gambling. So when you practice them on your demo account, keep that in mind. |
| 98 | 00:18:25,890 --> 00:18:36,150 | That way you're not trying to overextend yourself. the sell side below these lows in here after hit the fairway get here and then one more time into it. |
| 99 | 00:18:36,690 --> 00:18:50,820 | While the opening price it breaks lower and aggressively runs below here. So no bad little running. Scoop back up to a five minute chart. Okay, and we're gonna |
| 100 | 00:18:50,820 --> 00:19:03,270 | go look at the afternoon session. Here is 135. And I remember I dated at around 130. That's when I like to go back in. Now I've taken trades earlier than that, |
| 101 | 00:19:03,270 --> 00:19:13,800 | but I'd like to see 130 after 130 the lunch hour has been smoothed out and then there's usually some kind of a retracement higher when it's bearish or |
| 102 | 00:19:13,800 --> 00:19:24,360 | retracement lower when it's bullish. And you're seeing that here. The imbalance, relative equal highs. It runs up into that right there. That's an area you can |
| 103 | 00:19:24,360 --> 00:19:37,110 | get short on. Market delivers a run lower. Here's another little fear of a gap in there. It runs up into that. That's a short aiming for what that line here. |
| 104 | 00:19:37,320 --> 00:19:51,120 | That's that relative equal low on the daily chart. So today, huge, huge opportunity Day marks of points that could have been made available. But I did |
| 105 | 00:19:51,120 --> 00:20:03,330 | something this morning. showing everyone kind of like what reading the tape. Examples will be like when I'm doing In the last session, I did some executions |
| 106 | 00:20:03,330 --> 00:20:17,460 | just to prove visibility to prove I was expecting a certain run. And I believe I was on NASDAQ. Yeah, I was in the NASDAQ. So let's go over to NASDAQ. |
| 107 | 00:20:22,770 --> 00:20:28,800 | Okay, that's in here. So we're going to zoom in here on this bit of business |
| 108 | 00:20:45,420 --> 00:21:03,120 | all right. And here is what I had in mind. When I was looking at the chart, I woke up this morning. Wife is out of town with my daughter. So I woke up and |
| 109 | 00:21:03,780 --> 00:21:11,160 | just because, you know, creature habit, your spouse next to you. So I had insomnia. So I sat up, and I was looking at the chart and said, Well, you know |
| 110 | 00:21:11,160 --> 00:21:23,730 | what? I see. Well, let me ask you what you see before I do it. Okay. What gave me the backdrop for all this in here, which I'll explain in detail in a moment. |
| 111 | 00:21:23,730 --> 00:21:38,700 | But what gave me the realization that this is likely to turn here and go lower? Study the entire fractal that's been shown, okay? Pause the video. Some of you |
| 112 | 00:21:38,700 --> 00:21:50,580 | just refused, I'm never gonna do it, I see seeds up asking me to do it. Alright, so we had this high here, we ran above it. And then we had the market shift. So |
| 113 | 00:21:50,610 --> 00:22:03,000 | buy stops, taken, breakout artists taken in on the market long, and then relative equal lows broken. So we have a shift in market structure on a five |
| 114 | 00:22:03,000 --> 00:22:11,640 | minute chart. In a time when it's bearish. We're looking for those relative equal lows to be tagged on the s&p and this is not the s&p, I understand that. |
| 115 | 00:22:11,940 --> 00:22:22,530 | But the expectation is we want to see these two indices go down on the daily chart. So heaviness should be the you know, the the protocol going into our |
| 116 | 00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:37,800 | trading day. In here, we have what? Displacement below these lows, so there's a lot of energy there. So right above that we have fair Vega over there's one |
| 117 | 00:22:37,800 --> 00:22:51,150 | right here, too, right? What did I teach you? This is where you do your entry. ICT you didn't enter here, right? I wasn't looking at the chart yet, I'll get to |
| 118 | 00:22:51,150 --> 00:23:04,200 | that. He said, My mind can read my mind, this fair value got here, we expect that to step up into it. So our stock has to at least be in a position where it |
| 119 | 00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:17,460 | can weather that. So what does that mean? That means that you have to either have deep pockets and allow for your stop loss to be inside this here. Or you |
| 120 | 00:23:17,460 --> 00:23:30,810 | use the micros which is fine. Don't do it on micro man, I'm gonna be in here. $20 per point. Okay. But you have to have an account that will allow for that if |
| 121 | 00:23:30,810 --> 00:23:42,360 | you don't have that didn't trade the micro. But I don't want to do that. Okay. Gamble. But not because I taught you to do that. So here is the order flow |
| 122 | 00:23:42,360 --> 00:23:53,250 | inside of that fear. But you got here, again, a little bit of extra runs above, into that fear of a gap there. And I'll put another rectangle here. So you can |
| 123 | 00:23:53,250 --> 00:24:03,210 | get a visual representation of what I mean. I mean, you can clearly see it, obviously, but I want you to just see it by contrast. So this is the rules. This |
| 124 | 00:24:03,210 --> 00:24:12,540 | is why I've been teaching it. Okay. If there is only one fair value gap, then just put your entry there and you don't expect it to go up into any deeper |
| 125 | 00:24:12,540 --> 00:24:22,350 | retracement. But because it has another one here, expected to stab up into that. Now I know some of you in here want to be in ICT junior, and you want to be in |
| 126 | 00:24:22,350 --> 00:24:29,850 | there on the highest candle when you're selling you want to be on the lowest candle when you're buying and I understand. But this isn't always going to |
| 127 | 00:24:29,850 --> 00:24:40,260 | happen. So if you're really only trying to aim for that you're going to miss news. And if it moves like it did today, that's it's a heartbreaker, because it |
| 128 | 00:24:40,260 --> 00:24:48,690 | moved a lot. And if you weren't positioned in it, and you spent the rest of the day kicking yourself about being greedy about trying to get that instead of |
| 129 | 00:24:48,690 --> 00:24:57,330 | where I've already taught you you'll probably miss it the other moves that take place later in the afternoon and you get nothing for there. Alright, so anyway, |
| 130 | 00:24:58,050 --> 00:25:08,790 | so we had a shift in market structure we move on into fair value guy here, we have a break lower fair value gap here. Relative equal lows, now look real |
| 131 | 00:25:08,790 --> 00:25:20,820 | close, folks. Okay, relative equal lows, a high being taken here, we break down these two candles move right below here. That's the same thing as these two |
| 132 | 00:25:20,820 --> 00:25:31,950 | candles here being broken with this move here, it's a fractal. This whole move here is the same thing here, just smaller. And it creates the same thing, a fair |
| 133 | 00:25:31,950 --> 00:25:41,250 | value got here, the market trades up into it, the body's kind of, you know, respecting that low area moves a little bit above it, that's fine. But then |
| 134 | 00:25:41,520 --> 00:25:45,330 | breaks aggressively lower, does it take out the low yet new |
| 135 | 00:25:47,730 --> 00:26:00,570 | retraces up in now I have two. Okay, not one, I have two narratives in play this one here, where we have a shift in market structure there. So this is a long |
| 136 | 00:26:00,570 --> 00:26:15,270 | term high. Here, we have another break lower when imbalance. So it's me term high. This is a bigger one than that one, right. So this is a long term high |
| 137 | 00:26:16,200 --> 00:26:25,170 | intermediate term high. By definition. They're both intermediate term highs because they have imbalances. But this one is lower than this one. And this over |
| 138 | 00:26:25,170 --> 00:26:36,720 | here is lower than that one. So this is a turning point making this by the heirarchy have swing points in market structure. This is a long term high in |
| 139 | 00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:48,390 | meter intermediate term because of the imbalance by how they nest together for market structure. Long term, intermediate term. Now when this is retracing up, |
| 140 | 00:26:48,390 --> 00:26:57,990 | this is going to be a short term high inside of a market structure that is really predisposed to go lower. Because we have long term and intermediate term |
| 141 | 00:26:58,140 --> 00:27:13,080 | above me. This should respect the underlying order flow and go lower. And I'm looking for that lower price that's below here, their cell stops resting below |
| 142 | 00:27:13,080 --> 00:27:25,260 | that. So as it retraces back up into this up close candle, what is this up close candle to be a shorter block. That's not what you've been teaching us mike on |
| 143 | 00:27:25,260 --> 00:27:36,390 | his mouth, right? I didn't say that's what this was. I'm telling you how to read the tape. Okay, but I do teach order blocks on the channel. So we're gonna go |
| 144 | 00:27:36,390 --> 00:27:56,760 | into this right here. So inside this shaded area, this is what I'm going to be executing in about colleran. Okay, it's good enough, it may not be your choice, |
| 145 | 00:27:56,760 --> 00:28:01,620 | but it's mine now. Alright, so we're gonna drop into a one minute chart |
| 146 | 00:28:10,920 --> 00:28:20,250 | every time I do this, I always imagine somebody that has a little bit better understanding how to work with the TradingView platform, they probably have a |
| 147 | 00:28:20,250 --> 00:28:35,940 | whole lot easier, quicker way of getting to where I'm trying to get to. Sorry. Alright, so we're inside of that blue shaded area on the finance chart. I'm also |
| 148 | 00:28:35,940 --> 00:28:46,050 | inside of this green candle here. That's a bullish order block. So what I'm doing is now I'm going to calibrate, which just simply means I'm going to go |
| 149 | 00:28:46,050 --> 00:28:58,980 | down in with a top down analysis approach, refine that order block that was on a five minute down to this one. So the market retrace back up into here into that |
| 150 | 00:28:58,980 --> 00:29:07,530 | order block, and I'm I'm trying to aim once it hits the midpoint of it. I want to get in around that time. Okay, so I'm entering there on that candle. And then |
| 151 | 00:29:07,530 --> 00:29:19,440 | I'm holding in all this and it drops back down. Now some of you might look at this and say, Oh, but this is that order block fair value gap here. And what |
| 152 | 00:29:19,440 --> 00:29:27,210 | happens if it rallies what it does a little bit, but what's it subordinate to? All the things I aligned over here and on the five minute chart over here with a |
| 153 | 00:29:27,210 --> 00:29:39,840 | higher swing high, so the market structure is bearish? I'm not looking at this setup. This is why I'm telling you. I tell them all the time. Okay. Is me |
| 154 | 00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:51,750 | teaching my order block theory me teaching my fair value gap concept? Is it going to become ineffective? No. Because, number one, it takes a lot of |
| 155 | 00:29:51,750 --> 00:30:00,210 | discipline. You have to be absolutely organized. You have to know what you're doing. And that's why a lot of people just teach it from hindsight. You cuz they |
| 156 | 00:30:00,210 --> 00:30:10,470 | can't, they can't really do it. So you can sound real smart. You can sound real educated, and you know, institutional quote unquote. But if they can't do it, |
| 157 | 00:30:10,500 --> 00:30:22,470 | it's useless. So if I'm showing you these things, and I'm telling you also look around majority of the people that parrot what I teach, that means they're |
| 158 | 00:30:22,470 --> 00:30:33,060 | mimicking my saying What does I already said like an echo, but they're really not doing it, they're not doing it like I'm able to do with it. That should be |
| 159 | 00:30:33,060 --> 00:30:49,500 | your comfort that people by far and large, humans are lazy creatures, okay, they're lazy. And they're not going to be predominantly role based, disciplined, |
| 160 | 00:30:49,860 --> 00:30:59,850 | responsible, they're going to be lazy, and they're not going to do what's supposed to be done. So it won't change anything. Okay? It won't make these |
| 161 | 00:30:59,850 --> 00:31:10,920 | things inferior, it won't change their superiority, it will not make them ineffective, they will remain constant. Now, the algorithm, I don't care how |
| 162 | 00:31:10,920 --> 00:31:20,790 | many people learn from this YouTube channel, okay? I don't care how many people rip me off and try to rebrand and change the name of everything I've taught. All |
| 163 | 00:31:20,790 --> 00:31:31,440 | that saturation will not change. Because what I just said, the algorithm isn't gonna change. There's new suckers coming in all the time. PT Barnum said it |
| 164 | 00:31:31,890 --> 00:31:42,870 | really, really accurately, there's a sucker born every second. So that you're never going to run out of liquidity, somebody's born. So Mike is old enough to |
| 165 | 00:31:42,870 --> 00:31:51,930 | start speculating and trading, boom, there in the marketplace. And that liquidity will just add to the liquidity that will be on the other side of your |
| 166 | 00:31:51,930 --> 00:32:00,840 | trade. So there's no reason for you to be worrying about whether or not this is going to be in effect. I've been teaching this for a long time. Okay, privately. |
| 167 | 00:32:01,380 --> 00:32:12,540 | And listen, if I honestly believed in my heart of hearts that this would fail and stopped working, if I taught it, I would not teach it. I wouldn't, I would |
| 168 | 00:32:12,540 --> 00:32:23,490 | have never even mentioned it. And I'm being honest. So take heart, there's no reason for you to be upset about or worried or concerned, it will remain as long |
| 169 | 00:32:23,490 --> 00:32:35,460 | as the markets are trading, these elements will be in these markets. There it is. Alright, so the market rallies up, it's that's above the order block here. |
| 170 | 00:32:35,490 --> 00:32:45,030 | But it's just the wick to that the bulk of the volume in the bodies of the candles are inside that order block. Then the market does what it breaks and |
| 171 | 00:32:45,030 --> 00:32:55,530 | shows displacement here. Remember what I said about this pattern here? Relative equal lows, it breaks down and goes back to a fear of a gap. Here it is, again, |
| 172 | 00:32:55,710 --> 00:33:07,980 | relative equal lows, displacement, fair value gap was it do go right back up into what the fear Vega end and look closely the bottom of the bearish order |
| 173 | 00:33:07,980 --> 00:33:08,340 | block. |
| 174 | 00:33:10,619 --> 00:33:19,919 | Bam, it's it. You watch me looking at the chart. It's there. And then I'm entering on that candle. I'm not entering because I wasn't really looking at the |
| 175 | 00:33:19,919 --> 00:33:27,959 | screen at the second one I was. I was holding the phone this morning. But I wasn't looking at it here because this is a one minute chart and I was doing |
| 176 | 00:33:27,959 --> 00:33:36,509 | something else. Now I look back at the screen I seen it went up there and hate it. And after it filled it, then I put my market order go in and sell to I sold |
| 177 | 00:33:36,509 --> 00:33:47,849 | three contracts here. I sold two contracts here. And then I entered again here after did what retreated back up into this bearish order block here. So it moved |
| 178 | 00:33:47,849 --> 00:34:08,939 | down, came back up in and I'm selling short here that okay, what's the low on that candle? Right here. Look at this figure right there. So 13,334 and three |
| 179 | 00:34:08,939 --> 00:34:21,179 | quarters. And my entry as it ran up into it on this candle. The entry was 13,003 35. So it was only a quarter of a point above into that candle. That was |
| 180 | 00:34:21,179 --> 00:34:32,549 | my entry. It had a little bit of heat here. So on that entry, it was one contract here. So notice what I'm doing. I'm entering it the largest portion of |
| 181 | 00:34:33,389 --> 00:34:45,689 | the setup or the end of the framework for the trade. I'm going in with a maximum position size, first three contracts there. Then selling to here. And then I'm |
| 182 | 00:34:45,689 --> 00:34:57,059 | adding the last one here. That logical, precise areas. It's not randomness. It's not willy nilly. It's this not flipping a coin. It's not guessing there's logic |
| 183 | 00:34:57,059 --> 00:35:15,599 | here. Okay. So When the market has this heat on it here, the highest value that candle goes to is 13,339 and a half. So four and a half handles, that's the heat |
| 184 | 00:35:15,599 --> 00:35:25,829 | I took on that there, but only on one contract. Okay, because I have two contracts that I'm short from back here. And I have three contracts short from |
| 185 | 00:35:25,859 --> 00:35:36,749 | over here. So I have all this built in equity with five contracts. So the one contract here that only has four and a half points of heat on it, or drawdown, |
| 186 | 00:35:37,049 --> 00:35:44,909 | it's insignificant, I don't even worry about it, I'm not thinking about it. And that's why, when I pyramid and I build in large positions, I'm starting with my |
| 187 | 00:35:44,909 --> 00:35:54,059 | biggest position first, and then I'm going smaller, and smaller until I can't do any smaller. I don't ever do the final one contract. And one morning, one |
| 188 | 00:35:54,059 --> 00:36:06,569 | morning, one more, I don't do that. That's the I don't need to do that. So once I had that position established, then I submitted to the idea of it going down |
| 189 | 00:36:06,569 --> 00:36:16,889 | to that level that I drew out on the I forgot what timeframe was now. But we'll draw back out in a second to here is the exit here, I bought all six back at |
| 190 | 00:36:16,889 --> 00:36:29,489 | 13,002 85. Even, I wanted to be just above the level, because it might do these little shallow runs. And it might not give me my fill. It does a little bit of |
| 191 | 00:36:29,489 --> 00:36:39,749 | that in here. And then finally, digs a little bit deeper. I just sort of had to wait a little bit longer to get the fill but happened right there. And I post on |
| 192 | 00:36:39,749 --> 00:36:51,689 | the Community tab when I happen boom, showed you those screenshots. There it is. Now that's reading the tape that is reading the market that's getting |
| 193 | 00:36:57,900 --> 00:37:11,580 | familiar with order flow. And for those of you that are students of mine for a longer time than just recently, you recognize this as a market maker sell model. |
| 194 | 00:37:12,450 --> 00:37:24,570 | So I was selling in an area where distribution would take place. So all this stuff is there. It's logic. I'm gonna say this point, because I know there's |
| 195 | 00:37:24,570 --> 00:37:33,420 | people out there going through my trade statements, and you're looking for precision. There's a lot of things that I'm doing in that statement in those |
| 196 | 00:37:33,420 --> 00:37:43,620 | statements that have nothing to do with trying to be precise. You guys wanted to see an account go up, I provided that I also provided a way for my students that |
| 197 | 00:37:43,620 --> 00:37:53,880 | were asking me that I'm obligated to, to show them where if they went into a period of drawdown, how they fix it, and also had lots of questions like and I |
| 198 | 00:37:53,880 --> 00:38:08,250 | did this morning with me see, where was the entry? The second one? I did two contracts right there. Okay. When I did that one, it was after I did the or was |
| 199 | 00:38:08,250 --> 00:38:17,940 | it the printer back and then it made a difference. The one where I had the fair value gap. I said I didn't see it when it was forming and filling it in. After |
| 200 | 00:38:17,940 --> 00:38:28,320 | it filled it, it was so close to it. So as a close proximity entry, a lot of the trades in that TD Ameritrade account, I'm using close proximity entries. And I'm |
| 201 | 00:38:28,320 --> 00:38:40,740 | also using things that you don't know about, okay. I'm also proving to some of my students where if they got into a marketplace, and they take a trade, and |
| 202 | 00:38:40,860 --> 00:38:49,140 | they don't get stopped out, but they sit through drawdown, how the weather that you are not privy to the conversations I'm having with these students. So don't |
| 203 | 00:38:49,140 --> 00:38:57,600 | assume that you're looking at their statements thinking, Oh, this is this is all he's got. That's not all that I'm actually doing something else. I hear somebody |
| 204 | 00:38:57,600 --> 00:39:07,890 | out there talking saying they can do things and I can't trade. And I'm baiting them. I want them to step out, but they won't. Okay. I want them to think that |
| 205 | 00:39:07,890 --> 00:39:17,160 | that's all I could do. And even then they wouldn't budge because he knows I can do better than that. This is this is not even the best. There's other things you |
| 206 | 00:39:17,160 --> 00:39:27,120 | can do with my concepts. Rick from this YouTube channel. That's more precise than this. I know it sounds hard to believe, but it is what it is. I don't want |
| 207 | 00:39:27,120 --> 00:39:37,200 | those statements that are sharing. Because like everything else of mine, people take my stuff, remove my name, rebrand it. And they say you know, this is my |
| 208 | 00:39:37,200 --> 00:39:49,230 | stuff isn't my creation, this is whatever and they sell in a scam. If I give statements that have real time in sales with Live account, and I'm producing |
| 209 | 00:39:49,260 --> 00:39:58,740 | like you see here, is it hard to imagine that someone taking that and showing it to people and saying that's their results and scamming them? Think about it |
| 210 | 00:39:58,740 --> 00:40:12,570 | folks. Everything I do, there's a rhyme and reason for it. I'm not reacting to someone else's negative discord. So today is the last day of the business here. |
| 211 | 00:40:13,260 --> 00:40:26,520 | And we're done. So I did all this overnight, going into pre New York session. And then we had all this back and forth. They pumped it up over the overnight |
| 212 | 00:40:26,730 --> 00:40:40,260 | high here. And then we go back into that discussion we had earlier. So they ran a high here with this run up at 930. That's when we expect that volatility to |
| 213 | 00:40:40,260 --> 00:40:51,690 | come in. And that's right here. Okay, so a little bit of whipsaw on here, boom. Rallies. In my live trading account. I took a long in here, and I got out at I |
| 214 | 00:40:51,690 --> 00:41:03,480 | think it was 13 409. I wanted 13 for 25. But I was a little apprehensive thinking that they may not step through it. They were getting real close to this |
| 215 | 00:41:03,720 --> 00:41:13,350 | hung around. And I got out just a little bit prematurely. And that was it. And I didn't take anything until later on the afternoon. So small little scalp in here |
| 216 | 00:41:14,010 --> 00:41:25,980 | made about 740 bucks. I think it was and that was it. My attention diverted because, Mr. Mom right now, not my wife, not with me. And two children I have |
| 217 | 00:41:26,070 --> 00:41:27,300 | that live with us still, |
| 218 | 00:41:27,660 --> 00:41:37,860 | I'm in charge of homeschooling them still running this business. And I have two boxers that are highly demanding of my time. And I know some of you are saying |
| 219 | 00:41:37,860 --> 00:41:45,210 | get to the point get to the point. The point is, is I'm a real person. Okay, so I'm not able to be in every single move, because I'm doing other things, and I |
| 220 | 00:41:45,210 --> 00:41:54,690 | have a life. I know, it seems like I probably don't. But I really do and isn't triggered it is it is. And it's as simple as it is. I love my life. And I like |
| 221 | 00:41:54,690 --> 00:42:03,690 | doing the things I like doing in my life. But the markets are not everything in my life. But hopefully, you got something out of this. And you can see how we |
| 222 | 00:42:03,690 --> 00:42:24,990 | did again, draw lower on NASDAQ. And I think that will be it for this one. And go back to E Mini s&p. And you can see your relationship there. So both of them |
| 223 | 00:42:24,990 --> 00:42:36,450 | moving in concert, both of them moving in tandem. But look closer. Okay, this is why I went back to the E Mini s&p, why'd you do that? ICT? Do you see |
| 224 | 00:42:43,560 --> 00:43:01,260 | that look at the high here at two o'clock in the morning, 230 in the morning, today, Friday, April 29 2020. The rally here after 830. It creates the high but |
| 225 | 00:43:01,260 --> 00:43:07,620 | it's lower than high to 230 overnight. Now go back to NASDAQ. |
| 226 | 00:43:12,690 --> 00:43:33,120 | See that 235 And we have a higher run on NASDAQ. So this is what I teach is SMT. Okay. It's showing it's showing a willingness to crack the correlation between |
| 227 | 00:43:33,600 --> 00:43:47,430 | like markets. These are closely correlated assets, the s&p 500 stocks composite. And in NASDAQ 100, stocks composite, they generally move together in tandem, not |
| 228 | 00:43:47,460 --> 00:44:02,160 | all the time. So if we're bearish and we're expecting lower prices, and we see this but the s&p doesn't do it. That's showing you that this is a stock run. And |
| 229 | 00:44:02,160 --> 00:44:17,100 | it shows that s&p is really weak. So this gives you confirmation without using an indicator, okay, without having anything on the chart. It shows you while |
| 230 | 00:44:17,280 --> 00:44:27,180 | you're still here, when you have the NASDAQ up like this, you can do a compare and contrast by hitting this little tab here. And we're going to add this E Mini |
| 231 | 00:44:27,180 --> 00:44:39,390 | s&p Neupane. So plotted below and then when you're comparing highs, you want to go over here, go to that little gear. Price source you want to change it to high |
| 232 | 00:44:41,640 --> 00:45:00,000 | and you can see high to high, high to high, higher here. Lower there. So looks like it looks like a divergence. You see that with an indicator but it's not |
| 233 | 00:45:00,000 --> 00:45:09,540 | indicator its price. So I use intermarket relationships and correlation and correlation used properly. There's a lot of people out there talking about |
| 234 | 00:45:09,540 --> 00:45:18,240 | correlation, they have no idea what you're talking about. But if you look at the idea of this relationship here, it gives you like an x ray view of real |
| 235 | 00:45:18,240 --> 00:45:30,390 | accumulation and distribution. This is distribution, because it doesn't see the same rally higher that the NASDAQ did. Okay. There was two other things on my |
| 236 | 00:45:30,510 --> 00:45:41,790 | agenda here. I mentioned to one of the young ladies, I would show the FIB, this is nothing else. So you guys are all welcome to turn the video off. Because this |
| 237 | 00:45:41,790 --> 00:45:52,230 | is not going to be teaching really anything. It's for those individuals that just want to calibrate their Fibonacci and also some of the points that I add to |
| 238 | 00:45:52,230 --> 00:46:03,690 | the chart, and I'll show you what that means here. Price note at someone asking how do I put those little annotations on, just anchor to the how you want, drag |
| 239 | 00:46:03,690 --> 00:46:12,030 | it over, if you hold down the shift button, it'll make it level. You can also do that with your trim lines. So if you want to add here, if you start dragging it, |
| 240 | 00:46:12,060 --> 00:46:21,840 | if you put the shift button, it'll automatically target and keep it straight. And so many of my students are so helpful, because it used to drive me crazy. So |
| 241 | 00:46:21,870 --> 00:46:32,460 | anyway, I know I told you, I warned you folks, it's not going to be on burners. It's simple stuff for people that are new. Alright, the last bit of business is |
| 242 | 00:46:32,460 --> 00:46:47,490 | the Fibonacci. Okay, so I'm going to anchor your fib to two price points. Get this off here. Alright, so once you have it on your chart, highlight it, and |
| 243 | 00:46:47,490 --> 00:46:56,940 | then go over to the little gear, and go to style. And style, these are the settings, okay, all you do is go in, click the little box here, type in the |
| 244 | 00:46:56,940 --> 00:47:10,350 | numbers you see just like I have here. Now, if you want to see projections on how far down or up the moves will likely go. This is where equilibrium. So if |
| 245 | 00:47:10,350 --> 00:47:20,940 | you want to see discount the premium, that's what the point five level is, it's 50%. And you can see, by having this on here, it starts doing standard |
| 246 | 00:47:20,940 --> 00:47:37,890 | deviations. Okay. And if you want to calibrate it to the daily range. Here, it'll give you a pretty good idea of where your low should form. Now this was a |
| 247 | 00:47:37,890 --> 00:47:51,240 | little bit excited because it went below an important low. But that's enough for government work. If you want to show the optimal trade entry levels, and you're |
| 248 | 00:47:51,240 --> 00:47:51,960 | pulling the filler |
| 249 | 00:47:58,020 --> 00:48:08,940 | I'm just taking this off so that way your attention rate on levels that make optimal trade entry either the 62 and the 79. Okay, and you can change these, |
| 250 | 00:48:09,600 --> 00:48:20,010 | make them a different color just stand out. I don't like to do that. But you can see it here. So if we were looking at it like this |
| 251 | 00:48:27,900 --> 00:48:42,810 | here's the optimal trade entry levels, and it trades up into it here. Zoom in. Can you zoom in it ain't young like you are. Alright, so here's the high to the |
| 252 | 00:48:42,810 --> 00:48:52,350 | low optimal trade entry and trades up into here and into the fair value gap. Bam. That's what makes it optimal. So there's your entry here and you can start |
| 253 | 00:48:52,380 --> 00:48:53,370 | on back in |
| 254 | 00:48:58,560 --> 00:49:19,110 | and we can do the projections here. Again, go into it now. Move this out of the way. Do one standard deviation, two standard deviation, one the higher standard |
| 255 | 00:49:19,110 --> 00:49:35,640 | deviation and I think that's enough for this one. So the range from the high and the low. You can get that for your discount the premium but for optimal trade |
| 256 | 00:49:35,640 --> 00:49:48,270 | entry. I like to use the body's lowest open or close in the swings and you can see how nice that gets right up almost into the 70% Trace and obviously that I'm |
| 257 | 00:49:48,270 --> 00:49:59,160 | gonna take this fear agar mine off. You see the hub here I cleaned it up with the book. So if you don't know how to use a Fibonacci you have any idea how many |
| 258 | 00:49:59,160 --> 00:50:06,840 | people will say that? No Every years, they actually make videos about me on YouTube saying that stuff, I don't understand what he's doing. It's the bulk of |
| 259 | 00:50:06,840 --> 00:50:16,110 | the volume. And using the lowest opening on this candle here inside this swing, and inside this swing, I'm using the highest open or close. And that's what's |
| 260 | 00:50:16,110 --> 00:50:27,090 | been plotted on optimal trade entries here. I look at this as stop running, just like this is I want to get to the heart of the matter. Okay, I'm getting to the |
| 261 | 00:50:27,090 --> 00:50:38,400 | point. This is extra for the people that didn't want to stay. So the optimal trade entry level here. Now if we start looking at the projections down here, we |
| 262 | 00:50:38,400 --> 00:50:48,810 | have one standard deviation down here. Project that over here, boom, see that? hits it and then we have a nice retracement. So this is a good area to take |
| 263 | 00:50:48,810 --> 00:50:57,600 | profits here and it's also below the low so how far can I go below this low ICT mark? There's a standard deviation right there. And it does so handsomely. And |
| 264 | 00:50:57,600 --> 00:51:05,280 | we have a nice little retracement then it gets wild right before the opening. Okay, but that's the things I promised that would be at the end of this video |
| 265 | 00:51:05,310 --> 00:51:16,020 | that was supposed to be on Thursday and I appreciate you guys being you know, patient not going all crazy and pitchfork and torches. You said you were gonna |
| 266 | 00:51:16,020 --> 00:51:25,830 | do a video on Thursday. Real Life kick them folks. All right. And I think that my friends is going to be it and I will touch base with you Lord willing on |
| 267 | 00:51:26,340 --> 00:51:31,470 | Tuesday of next week. Until I'll talk to you then. Enjoy your weekend and be safe |