ICT YT - 2022-04-27 - ICT Mentorship 2022 Episode 21.srt

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2022-04-30 15:55
1 00:00:05,250 --> 00:00:24,390 ICT: Alright folks, welcome back. This is our 21st episode of the 2022 free ICT, YouTube mentorship, little tongue twister. So we're looking at the hourly chart
2 00:00:24,420 --> 00:00:32,760 on the dollar index. Why are we here? Why are we looking at this? Well, I'm looking at this because I want to show you the relationships between a risk on
3 00:00:32,760 --> 00:00:42,870 and risk off market. If you've been following along in the comment section, and if you haven't paid attention, or even noticed, all my videos, in this
4 00:00:42,870 --> 00:00:56,550 mentorship, the comments section is open. Okay, so you're welcome to make your appreciation known, you're welcome to prompt me with specific questions that you
5 00:00:56,550 --> 00:01:09,060 want to see me kind of like, touch on without making too much of a long winded request for it, I can kind of get a feel for what you're looking for. And I'll
6 00:01:09,060 --> 00:01:19,590 work those ideas into the lessons that we can. Hopefully everybody's understanding on the same page. I may not respond to your posts, I may not, you
7 00:01:19,590 --> 00:01:28,710 know, directly answer sometimes if it's short and easy, I'll do that. But if it's a question, I see a lot of across the other videos as well. I use the
8 00:01:28,710 --> 00:01:35,790 videos to kind of like answer it. So it's important for you to take notes, because usually, you'll find that the questions you have are answered in the
9 00:01:35,790 --> 00:01:39,720 progression through this mentorship if you're coming here later than 2022.
10 00:01:40,980 --> 00:01:50,730 Alright, so one of the questions I got, and I get this a lot for people that have not been trained by me, the idea of using the dollar index, is it useful,
11 00:01:50,730 --> 00:02:00,090 like when I look at the forex market, like if the dollar is going higher, obviously that's going to put pressure on the foreign currencies, and it'll be
12 00:02:00,090 --> 00:02:08,970 less likely for them to have sustained rallies, they're more likely to have sustained declines. So dollar up foreign currency down, dollar down foreign
13 00:02:08,970 --> 00:02:20,880 currency up. The reason why that's occurring is it's a risk on risk off scenario. dollar is going up as we have here, this is a risk off scenario, okay,
14 00:02:20,880 --> 00:02:33,960 risk off scenario implies that generally, every other market or asset class will start to decline. And this is treated as like a flight to quality, okay, or a
15 00:02:33,960 --> 00:02:44,820 safe haven. So money pours into the dollar. And it pours out of risk assets that would be like foreign currency. That's why I've been telling you to look at the
16 00:02:45,060 --> 00:02:57,990 Euro dollar to go lower and make a new low on this daily chart. And today, it did it. And now it's random. And then also, this applies as well to the stock
17 00:02:57,990 --> 00:03:09,390 market index market. So obviously, I'm kind of like pushing the index futures in this mentorship on YouTube. But it's applicable obviously, everything I'm
18 00:03:09,390 --> 00:03:17,400 teaching here is universal. So it works in everything. Now, I'm not co signing crypto as a reminder, I do not trade cryptocurrency, I have absolutely zero
19 00:03:17,400 --> 00:03:24,750 experience trading cryptocurrency outside of a demo account or paper trading account, I've never done anything with it. I've never opened up a crypto
20 00:03:24,750 --> 00:03:34,680 account, I have no interest in ever going into the asset class. And there it is. Okay, I see a lot of you asking that in the comment section. So I'm going to try
21 00:03:34,680 --> 00:03:41,580 to throw this out there every now and then as a reminder, because I don't do anything with an asset class. I have a lot of students that trade them, and they
22 00:03:41,580 --> 00:03:52,710 swear by my concepts work in there, but I personally don't do it. Okay, so there's that I am a forex and futures trader. So that way you guys can know what
23 00:03:52,710 --> 00:04:03,630 my specialty is. And I want to show you this chart here and remind you of what I mentioned in the previous week. In our meetings together in the episodes, I said
24 00:04:03,630 --> 00:04:13,770 that we would likely see the dollar index drop down if I was making the market for the dollar, I would see it go down to around 99.92 You can go back and
25 00:04:13,770 --> 00:04:23,640 listen to the videos and obviously you'll see it it's their inherent then I said I would run that relative equal highs and start to run at higher I gave you the
26 00:04:23,640 --> 00:04:33,630 objectives of relative equal highs and mentioned like one or two one or three and even my private mentorship group news there's objectives as well. And we
27 00:04:33,630 --> 00:04:43,260 have it here. Okay. So I'll leave it up to you whether or not you find this inspiring or not knowing that this was likely to occur for London setup and then
28 00:04:43,290 --> 00:04:52,800 rally higher. I want you to look at the relationship between this price move here and go back into commentary where I was referring to that daily bearish
29 00:04:52,800 --> 00:05:04,410 order block on the index feature. Okay, so I was talking about the, the low the daily order block The open border block. And the mean threshold halfway in in
30 00:05:04,410 --> 00:05:11,580 the higher that were blocked being the less likely level be traded to. And I'll talk about that when we get into the E Mini s&p portion of this episode. But for
31 00:05:11,580 --> 00:05:22,860 now, let's take a look at what the relationship looks like with the dollar versus the E Mini s&p. So this is the June contract for 2022 of the E Mini s&p
32 00:05:23,040 --> 00:05:32,970 futures market. And you can see as the dollar creates, it's important that I called publicly you guys know it, I've said it I explain it to you in detail. As
33 00:05:32,970 --> 00:05:41,670 this dollar was going higher, what was going on in the E Mini s&p See the inverted relationship there. That's why I could go back and listen to the
34 00:05:41,670 --> 00:05:51,810 recording. When I was talking about that bearish order block on the E Mini s&p, I said that we're going into May, and it's usually a seasonal decline. And I'm
35 00:05:51,810 --> 00:06:01,470 going to be looking for signatures to warrant downward pressure in this particular asset class and reaching for those relative equal lows on the daily
36 00:06:01,470 --> 00:06:03,720 chart. Hello,
37 00:06:03,750 --> 00:06:12,390 look at your chart, folks. This is this is what it's like to be mentor. This is what it's like to know what's likely to occur with tools that make sense.
38 00:06:12,600 --> 00:06:26,370 There's nothing ambiguous here. There's nothing you splattered across the chart. It's this simple sound logic, okay? And hopefully inspiring you to simplify
39 00:06:26,370 --> 00:06:36,630 which many on the outside looking at what I do, will make snide remarks like oh, he overcomplicate things, and I'm not complicating anything. These are very
40 00:06:36,630 --> 00:06:48,330 simple ideas and it helps you build the idea of bias. It gives you intermarket relationships and intermarket analysis to give you the trust. Okay. Why did I
41 00:06:48,330 --> 00:06:57,240 feel confident to publicly say, that 99, nine to level? Well, I explained that, why did I think it was going to rally from there? Because I'm bullish on dollar?
42 00:06:57,570 --> 00:07:07,230 Why did I hit that we're going to be going lower into the E Mini s&p relative equal lows. And as we enter into May, that's a seasonal tendency. So all those
43 00:07:07,230 --> 00:07:18,930 factors came together, in my experience of almost 30 years, was used to hint at something for you to study. And if I'm right, or if I'm wrong, you get to be a
44 00:07:18,930 --> 00:07:28,830 judge. Okay, you could just see and weigh me in the balances have laid it out there in your hands. You see right now on this chart, when I was forecasting,
45 00:07:29,430 --> 00:07:40,500 the reasons why I was dealing it, why I said what I said and why it looks like it does in your chart today. Right, so here's that daily chart. And here's that
46 00:07:40,500 --> 00:07:47,580 bearish order block I was referring to and the highest that is the level we don't look for it to be traded to. And you can see we didn't even get to it
47 00:07:47,580 --> 00:07:54,990 there. Okay, so we round up into the order block. And then we had the weakness that was expected as we go into that may month and we're reaching into these
48 00:07:55,020 --> 00:08:04,920 relative equal lows. That's the next draw on liquidity. But for now, again, just keep your study inside this order block that's taught in this YouTube channel.
49 00:08:04,950 --> 00:08:20,790 Okay. So while it's not a main factor in the model on teaching in the mentorship for YouTube here, I leaned on that as a basis for my analysis, why I felt this
50 00:08:20,790 --> 00:08:34,020 was likely to go lower. That's the order block, that's the one that makes the likelihood of the market turning in this area, and then going lower, and
51 00:08:34,020 --> 00:08:42,600 attacking the sell side below here. Below the relative equal lows here is next and then this low here. So ultimately, we're looking for a run below here for
52 00:08:42,600 --> 00:08:51,420 the sell side. Now it might want to go down below here and give a little bit of a retracement if it leaves this portion open. That might want to rally from
53 00:08:51,450 --> 00:09:02,070 going over here up there. I don't think it would do that personally, but it could happen. But it's likely to draw into that. Oh, well here. Now how we trade
54 00:09:02,070 --> 00:09:11,040 once we get there. That'll be interesting. Because I don't know if it's going to accelerate violently to the downside. Or if we're going to have a sharp
55 00:09:11,100 --> 00:09:19,200 retracement higher. I don't know that. Okay, I don't care to know that right now. I'm just looking for and submitting to the idea that we're going to keep
56 00:09:19,230 --> 00:09:28,560 drawing down on daily chart. Each daily candle should be expanding lower and reaching into this area. Okay, that's what I'm expecting. That's my ideal
57 00:09:28,680 --> 00:09:39,390 scenario. Now, if you look at the daily range here today, we had a little bit of movement above the previous day. So we rallied above Monday's high and then
58 00:09:39,390 --> 00:09:51,000 failed to accelerate the downside. fell short of just running below these relative equal lows, but I still believe that's where we're likely to go. Have a
59 00:09:51,000 --> 00:10:00,810 lot of consolidation in here dropped and we have a nice rally in here. Now admittedly, listen closely, folks, because this is one of those times where If I
60 00:10:00,810 --> 00:10:11,280 didn't get it right, and I have no problem telling you, I was expecting this to rally just a little bit higher, and maybe flirt with that 4320 level, I thought
61 00:10:11,280 --> 00:10:21,660 that we could get more spike up into that. And then I was expecting the rollover can go lower, that did not happen. Okay, so let's go into the lower timeframe,
62 00:10:21,690 --> 00:10:22,650 15 minute timeframe.
63 00:10:24,270 --> 00:10:35,370 Here's the midnight hour New York time. And the opening price there. Notice we only had one, two little moves above that. And that's a really anemic movement.
64 00:10:35,550 --> 00:10:43,530 For what I was expecting a little bit more pronounced, rally higher, I wanted to see a little bit with you to swing that 20 handles 15 handles to that effect
65 00:10:43,530 --> 00:10:53,790 like that, and then break down and create something like this. Okay, but we didn't get it. So some of you may be asking, and I believe it was in the shell,
66 00:10:54,120 --> 00:11:05,130 in the comment section mentioned that it didn't appear that power three was in effect today. It actually was. But sometimes it's really, really small little
67 00:11:05,130 --> 00:11:13,680 movements like this, and it may not be useful to you. But what happens is when you enter the morning session, which we do here, at three o'clock in the
68 00:11:13,680 --> 00:11:23,370 morning, it breaks down relative to New York local time. Okay, so 3am, New York local time, there's a lot of folks in the comment section that are referring to
69 00:11:23,430 --> 00:11:31,650 in confused about Daylight Savings Time and such. All of that is resolved. If you simply just listen to the instruction that gave every single time I
70 00:11:31,650 --> 00:11:42,000 mentioned the time aspect. If you use this little area here on TradingView, and toggle it to New York, and you'll get news by clicking it, a window will pop up,
71 00:11:42,120 --> 00:11:49,440 scroll to where it says New York, highlight that one, click it, and then you're set, you don't have to worry about it. Don't worry about daylight savings time.
72 00:11:49,620 --> 00:11:58,770 Don't worry about anything as long as you are aware of what local time is in New York set a clock on your computer to always tracks the local time in New York
73 00:11:59,010 --> 00:12:10,320 24/7 365 days a year. If you do that, you'll never have any confusion about what you should be doing relative to time. So if you have a small little movement
74 00:12:10,320 --> 00:12:20,730 like this, it can throw you off if you're expecting like I was I wanted to see a little bit higher rally. So in the morning, I was looking for maybe a little
75 00:12:20,760 --> 00:12:35,610 poke above here didn't happen. We broke down retrace back in bearish order block and the imbalance and spend a little bit of time here and then rolled over right
76 00:12:35,610 --> 00:12:49,290 before the 930 opening. Okay, and I want to talk a little bit about the 830 and a 930. What times are useful? What are they beneficial to your analysis and what
77 00:12:49,650 --> 00:12:57,150 you should be concerned about? Okay, because I know there's a lot of questions about that. But ultimately, we moved into the lunch hour had a little bit of
78 00:12:57,150 --> 00:13:09,930 retracement in here broke down once more. And then aggressive selling really aggressive selling into the pm session into the close of the day. If you look at
79 00:13:09,930 --> 00:13:23,550 the opening price, at midnight, local time, new sorry, New York midnight, local time. That's what this here is the opening price. This price is useful for
80 00:13:23,550 --> 00:13:34,860 trading the london session. That's two o'clock and five o'clock in the morning New York local time. And it helps me frame the power three for the daily range.
81 00:13:34,860 --> 00:13:43,710 If I'm bearish, I'm looking for something to rally above that opening price in London. That's my ideal scenario I'm looking for that personally, as you can
82 00:13:43,710 --> 00:13:54,120 see, really didn't get much of that today, it was extremely heavy and just wilted and went lower. Sometimes that's going to happen, folks. And in this
83 00:13:54,120 --> 00:14:05,880 instance, I missed a setup, I don't get in what I'm thinking I'm expecting to see. So I'm human, you're human, you're going to look at something in the chart,
84 00:14:05,880 --> 00:14:13,170 and you're going to have something that is your favorite model, whatever pattern is you're looking for. And it may not even be my stuff. You know, say you're
85 00:14:13,170 --> 00:14:20,160 just here casually watching, you're probably nodding your head saying yeah, I've had lots of instances where I was looking for my particular setup and it didn't
86 00:14:20,160 --> 00:14:27,570 materialize and it went the other way without me, you're going to miss lose, you're going to misinterpret it, you're going to read it wrong, that's going to
87 00:14:27,570 --> 00:14:35,460 happen. That's why you have to use a stop loss. That's why you have to be controlled about how many times you go into the marketplace. And you also have
88 00:14:35,460 --> 00:14:44,220 to have some measure of flexibility and that comes with experience. You're not going to always be able to see that this isn't going to go up for you initially
89 00:14:44,220 --> 00:14:53,130 it's just gonna just wilt and go the other direction. So when we get into the 830 hour and I have the lines really light here because I want to be able to
90 00:14:53,130 --> 00:15:04,560 show where the highs and the lows were on the respective candles. So this is the 30 and this is the 12 and on midnight candle at New York. So it's in New York.
91 00:15:05,610 --> 00:15:09,810 And this is midnight New York. So there's a distinction here,
92 00:15:10,950 --> 00:15:23,130 the beginning of the day. This is where I look for the daily range power three setup and or the ideal scenario, if I'm bearish, I want to see something rally
93 00:15:23,130 --> 00:15:31,860 above the opening price. If I'm bullish, I want to see it decline below the opening price. Okay. That's pretty much the basis for the opening price, it may
94 00:15:31,860 --> 00:15:46,470 not. It may not be a factor for you. Like it is here. It's not much of a use for anything except for mall here, it opened and it just basically went lower from
95 00:15:46,470 --> 00:15:57,330 there. At 830, the same thing I look for those types of scenarios, I'm now I'm looking for weaker prices I'm looking for to trade lower, and does it rally
96 00:15:57,330 --> 00:16:12,030 above the 830 opening price. It never does. It's too heavy, it just wills. Okay, keeps going lower. Now, the opening price at 830. I use that for again, power
97 00:16:12,030 --> 00:16:21,630 three for the New York session, the same thought process I'm using for the opening price at midnight in New York time. That opening price compares I want
98 00:16:21,630 --> 00:16:29,640 to see a move above that right dub a Judas swing of false rally and a suspect rally. I usually like to fade those types of moves as it goes up I saw right
99 00:16:29,640 --> 00:16:36,090 into it is scary for someone who doesn't understand what you're looking at. But if you know what you're looking for, and it takes a lot of experience and
100 00:16:36,600 --> 00:16:46,770 learning and back testing and seeing things, you'll be able to do those types of things over time. But that same element of trying to look for a short above the
101 00:16:46,770 --> 00:16:55,950 opening price in New York, when I'm bearish, I would expect the same thing to happen for the New York session or rally above that opening price at 830. And
102 00:16:55,950 --> 00:17:03,810 then decline. So I'm looking for something that rally above that in faded, but it isn't doing it today. So now look what's occurring here. This is really
103 00:17:03,810 --> 00:17:11,730 important that you understand this part of it. You know whether I've been bearish? I've made it public knowledge here. Did we rally about the opening
104 00:17:11,730 --> 00:17:23,550 price in midnight? No. Did we rally above the opening price at 830? No. And we're bearish. What does that indicate to you? Obviously, with the benefit of
105 00:17:23,550 --> 00:17:38,040 hindsight, it's extremely bearish. It can't even rally to a short term premium, above the opening price at Key Levels and time. So we have an extremely heavy
106 00:17:38,040 --> 00:17:49,560 bearish market. So it's not going to give us these stunning little short term rallies that we can fade, it's just going to stay heavy. And either you get in
107 00:17:49,890 --> 00:18:00,990 where you can find small little pockets of imbalance, or you miss the move entirely. Now, as it happens today, my wife went on a trip, I had to take her to
108 00:18:00,990 --> 00:18:11,430 the airport, I was only able to cash her $2,000 worth of movement in the s&p Evening. That's the only thing I could capture. When I got back, I didn't
109 00:18:11,430 --> 00:18:21,210 participate in the afternoon. And looking at it now. I missed a really, really huge opportunity. There was no trading whatsoever any afternoon, my money was
110 00:18:21,210 --> 00:18:31,800 made short on E Mini s&p In the morning session. And that's all I had for today. If I would have just held on to what I had in the morning, you know, I could
111 00:18:31,800 --> 00:18:41,250 have done around $12,000 today alone, but I didn't hold on to it, I had other things to take care of. And that's that's the reality of things you know, real
112 00:18:41,250 --> 00:18:52,560 life creeps in is going to happen. But for those of you that are trying to learn these concepts, these types of movements are going to be very frustrating in the
113 00:18:52,560 --> 00:19:02,940 early stages of your development, because you're going to feel like they're changing something they're aware of this. This stuff goes on a lot. It happens
114 00:19:02,940 --> 00:19:14,730 in the futures markets, like commodities, like corn, soybeans, gold, oil, stocks, it sometimes the market, you're just simply too heavy, and they're not
115 00:19:14,730 --> 00:19:23,040 gonna rally for you. Okay to short into, it doesn't mean that they've changed anything, it doesn't mean that the concepts don't work, it just means that this
116 00:19:23,040 --> 00:19:33,180 is a market that is extremely bearish. And when it's extremely bearish, you have to treat it differently. And I'll show you what I mean by that here. And I'm not
117 00:19:33,180 --> 00:19:41,940 trying to inspire much outside of the mentorship. But I know some of you have asked this in the comment section plus it helps my own personal group to
118 00:19:41,940 --> 00:19:45,450 understand this as well. So it'll be a little bit of a refresher for them.
119 00:19:47,490 --> 00:19:59,010 Alright, so here's the London Open setup. This was the move that set up the only real sound entry in my opinion that took place today. Here, this displacement,
120 00:19:59,370 --> 00:20:07,830 fair value gap rallies up, bearish order block fair value got runs into it, and then you hold it. Because at the market structure shift below this short term
121 00:20:07,830 --> 00:20:17,700 low, the imbalance, we went back up in this imbalance here. Remember what I taught you about this, this one here can be traded to on a spike, it can get up
122 00:20:17,700 --> 00:20:26,490 in there, but your entry is on the lower fair value gap. Do you see the logic working here, you are going to use a stop that's going to allow for the market
123 00:20:26,490 --> 00:20:37,350 trading up into this one. So you may not like that much risk, you may not be able to take this trade. That's all part of this game. But you can trade a micro
124 00:20:38,280 --> 00:20:48,360 or maybe you could, I shouldn't say that you can, I don't know what all of your, your risk parameters are what you can work with in terms of margin. But while
125 00:20:48,360 --> 00:20:57,510 you're learning and paper trading, obviously, you can use anything because it's all hypothetical money. And you're learning the skill set. But the rules are
126 00:20:57,510 --> 00:21:06,720 still sticking to what I gave you in terms of the logic, if you have to fare by yacht, you're using this as the entry, and you're using this as the risk. Don't
127 00:21:06,750 --> 00:21:14,760 always assume that you can get up here and get the best entry, because it never went there. See that. So it's things like this, this is where I refer to as a
128 00:21:14,760 --> 00:21:24,750 signature in price action. These are algorithmic things that repeat, but you have to have the discernment and experience to know when it's likely to occur
129 00:21:24,750 --> 00:21:37,740 when it isn't likely to occur. So anyway, let's talk a little bit about the 830 time period in 930. Right, so here's 830. Got the imbalance here after 830. Now
130 00:21:37,740 --> 00:21:46,830 normally, with the model, I'm teaching you to look for something to the left, prior to 830, some kind of short term high, we want to see it rally up. And
131 00:21:46,830 --> 00:21:54,180 using the opening price at 830, which is here, we want to see it rally above that run some stops, then break down and create this type of scenario where it
132 00:21:54,180 --> 00:22:04,920 has displacement and a imbalance, it rallies back up into the unbalance and sells off. The model doesn't exist. In today's price action on the five minute
133 00:22:04,920 --> 00:22:15,150 chart, it doesn't give it to you there. Okay, so I'm gonna give you coaching, if you will, to kind of like show you what was in price. And some of the things I
134 00:22:15,150 --> 00:22:24,480 was looking at to help get in sync with the move. But I didn't write the whole thing out. Okay. And believe me, I'm looking at this today, I'm wishing I just
135 00:22:24,480 --> 00:22:33,720 would have had at least one of the two contracts, I had one on one still and just let it run. And I could have done you know, about eight grand or so. But I
136 00:22:33,720 --> 00:22:41,070 didn't do it. Okay, I was leaving, I was taking my wife through airport. And it's just better. If you're not going to be in front of the charts and anything
137 00:22:41,070 --> 00:22:50,220 can happen. You get the lead out their phone doesn't connect with the, you know, the broker, it's just better just to be away if you're not going to be paying
138 00:22:50,250 --> 00:22:59,250 attention to the marketplace. Just simply completely close the entire position. Also, I'll throw this in here too. Or shortly before I started doing the
139 00:22:59,250 --> 00:23:11,730 recording here. I saw a question Do I ever hold overnight, in these current conditions, I stopped holding overnight, like 24 hours. years ago, we had a lot
140 00:23:11,730 --> 00:23:21,510 of things going on in the world that changed my trust. Just like I used to hold things over the weekend, and expect your continuation going into the opening on
141 00:23:21,510 --> 00:23:33,720 Sunday and Monday. I no longer hold over the weekend. So I am 100% in a session or a day, an hour before the close, like I'm not holding 24 hours, I'm not
142 00:23:33,720 --> 00:23:44,160 holding 12 hours, you know, I'm not doing those types of positions. Typically my trade is anywhere between 90 minutes to two hours maximum. That's about the
143 00:23:44,700 --> 00:23:53,730 length of time that I'm holding. And I'm looking to take mine and get out and then reassess things because there's just too much risk right now in the
144 00:23:53,730 --> 00:24:04,860 marketplace, all asset classes. And things are now starting to get a little wild. And it could get a little bit more wild or okay. But the five minute chart
145 00:24:04,890 --> 00:24:07,890 has the imbalance in here we saw that run. And
146 00:24:10,050 --> 00:24:20,430 the model I want to see it run above the opening price at 830. The opening price at 830 is the New York sessions opening price. Now don't get confused with the
147 00:24:20,430 --> 00:24:35,880 New York midnight candles opening price. Because the New York Association in the name New York session is the 830 to 11 time period, New York local time. So I'm
148 00:24:35,880 --> 00:24:46,410 looking for this framework to offer power three, which is a fractal element of accumulation, manipulation and distribution. That's what power three the three
149 00:24:46,410 --> 00:24:56,340 things that is empowering you is understanding those three elements. accumulation, what's accumulating short positions, okay. Why because it's
150 00:24:56,340 --> 00:25:06,570 bearish, so smart money would accumulate short positions. Then anticipate manipulation above the opening price, they would assume more short positions
151 00:25:06,570 --> 00:25:19,140 there, then it starts to go the other direction. And they distribute their short positions at some important low that's that we're able to forecast and obviously
152 00:25:19,140 --> 00:25:30,630 it's relative to, there's daily equal lows and old daily lows and projections with the FIB all those ideas come to mind in concert with in agreement as well.
153 00:25:31,020 --> 00:25:39,150 With time of day, okay, so we're looking at a movement down into around the lunch hour beginning at noon, okay creates the important low there and we have a
154 00:25:39,150 --> 00:25:49,320 retracement during the lunch hour. One more time it punches above the high here, then it breaks down consolidates starts create 123. And then you can expect
155 00:25:49,320 --> 00:25:58,560 continuation going into the afternoon session. We're not going to talk about the afternoon session because honestly, I wasn't participating in it. And it is what
156 00:25:58,560 --> 00:26:07,620 it is I'm familiar with this morning, because I had some horses in the race today. Okay, so we'll start getting a little bit more detail here. Here we have
157 00:26:07,620 --> 00:26:20,460 the Format Chart. The imbalance here, this is one again, that is not rallying above the opening price at 830. Now it's showing 828. But that's because I'm
158 00:26:20,460 --> 00:26:29,010 showing a four minute chart. So don't let that confuse you. But the opening price again, never got traded above it the 30 candle. So whatever the opening
159 00:26:29,010 --> 00:26:42,390 price is at 830. You extend that out in time, and you want to see that rally above. Now, when you have this expectation, the other aspect of time is the 930
160 00:26:42,390 --> 00:26:55,170 opening. That's when the equity market for stocks themselves start trading their New York session. So what happens at 930? What am I expecting at 930? Well, not
161 00:26:55,170 --> 00:27:05,370 number one 930 is just when the opening occurs. And there's initial volatility. Now it can be whipsaw, where it can go up and down real short term, and go both
162 00:27:05,370 --> 00:27:16,200 directions in a small range. Sometimes it could be a really large range, and clear both sides of the buying cell. And then whatever the real move is going to
163 00:27:16,200 --> 00:27:27,990 be for the day, we wait for that to unfold. Today, we can see at 930 it just starts to run lower, doesn't give us a rally at all. So it just starts to speed
164 00:27:27,990 --> 00:27:42,660 up what's already in motion from three o'clock in the morning. They're in London Open Session. So 930 all does this start to accelerate them. Okay, and the same
165 00:27:42,660 --> 00:27:50,310 ideas being shown on a three minute chart. You can see here that in total imbalance gets a little bit more refined, trades up into it rather handsomely
166 00:27:51,180 --> 00:28:00,690 breaks down. And here's another fair bet you got what a bearish order block. Now, this is one in here where it's useful because you have a little bit more
167 00:28:00,690 --> 00:28:10,440 insight as to what it's doing. It's too heavy, it's not likely to rally, there's no reason to look to go long, start looking for reasons to get short. And
168 00:28:10,440 --> 00:28:18,030 anytime you get an imbalance, and we're above those relative equal lows on the daily chart, because it's going to be drawn down into that. That's the that's
169 00:28:18,030 --> 00:28:28,740 the heaviness, objective. Okay, why the prices keep going lower, lower, lower, lower, is because they're gravitating towards those relatively equal lows on the
170 00:28:28,740 --> 00:28:37,440 daily chart. Okay, so go back to the chart where I mentioned in this video and showed the daily chart at that little blue line, that's where price is being
171 00:28:37,440 --> 00:28:40,710 drawn to. Okay, the algorithm is marching,
172 00:28:42,060 --> 00:28:53,490 every minute, every hour, every day to that level, how long does it take to get there? I don't know that. But I mentioned in my group that I didn't want to see
173 00:28:53,490 --> 00:29:02,790 it happen, like we're seeing it right now. Because it's, it's too fast. And it doesn't give it a lot of opportunities to get in with it and ride it. So you
174 00:29:02,790 --> 00:29:15,450 either have to have entries like this, which unfortunately, isn't scalable with the model I've shared publicly. But I do have obviously, opportunities that go
175 00:29:15,450 --> 00:29:25,230 over like this and show you the how you can still use the idea of the fair value got to get in with it. But you're going to have to leave out the element of a
176 00:29:25,230 --> 00:29:39,210 rally above the opening price at 830. And 930 just creates a lot of volatility. Okay, the initial surge in New York session as the stocks begin to trade
177 00:29:39,240 --> 00:29:54,480 basically. So as a recap here before I go into the next slide, midnight, New York time, that opening price I use that to trade, the London Open Session
178 00:29:54,480 --> 00:30:02,610 that's two o'clock to five o'clock in the morning. And also to help frame the idea like say I sleep through London, which is 90% of the time what I do today,
179 00:30:02,970 --> 00:30:11,880 like I don't do a lot of london session trading. And because of that, when I wake up and I'm looking at the market around seven o'clock in the morning or so
180 00:30:11,910 --> 00:30:20,880 I'm looking at what has happened overnight? And did we create a scenario that I would be looking to trade if I was awake during one, if it happens, then I know
181 00:30:20,880 --> 00:30:32,190 that I'm really built in with an advantage on the daily bias, because if I'm bearish, and it creates a rally above the opening price, midnight time in New
182 00:30:32,190 --> 00:30:41,700 York, and it creates that rally, little Judas swing on explained many times, all right. And it starts to decline. And um, below that around seven o'clock in the
183 00:30:41,700 --> 00:30:51,660 morning, I know that I'm likely to create a little short term rally, but it would be above ideally above the opening price at 830. But it may not do that.
184 00:30:52,650 --> 00:31:04,860 And price just remained heavy below both opening prices at midnight, New York local time. And 830, New York local time. So everything was extremely bearish.
185 00:31:04,890 --> 00:31:17,520 And it was so heavy, it could not mount any meaningful rallies. Many times in my early development, I got crushed on days like this, where it felt like okay,
186 00:31:17,520 --> 00:31:33,270 It's too, too low. Now, I can't just keep going lower. So I'm going to try to buy it now. Because indicators told me that were oversold 99 299 390 94 I blew
187 00:31:33,300 --> 00:31:44,370 account after account after account doing that. And it's frustrating. Now, obviously, with three decades of experience behind me, I know what it's trying
188 00:31:44,370 --> 00:31:53,700 to do and where it's trying to get to. And it's getting there in a really fast rate of speed. Now, obviously, you can get there a lot faster than that, but I
189 00:31:53,700 --> 00:32:03,090 don't, I don't want to do that. Because it gives no real opportunity for me to engage and participate in it. It doesn't give you as the student to engage also
190 00:32:03,090 --> 00:32:14,100 with your demo or paper trading account the practice. But as real life sometimes is, it's unfair. Okay, it doesn't give us what we want. Sometimes our
191 00:32:14,100 --> 00:32:26,760 expectations and our wants are denied. In in today's climate that is not popular. That's why this market and trading these markets is very, very
192 00:32:26,760 --> 00:32:43,170 difficult. Especially for like the millennials. Okay? That ideal, perfect always come exactly as I expected, sometimes is denied. In Either you accept that and
193 00:32:43,170 --> 00:32:56,670 navigate the markets with imperfection. And without the ideal scenario for your model. Or you're comfortable with just letting go and not doing anything and
194 00:32:56,670 --> 00:33:05,730 being accepting when it comes to big moves, and you can't participate in it. There's lots of moves folks over the last 30 years that I missed that were huge,
195 00:33:05,940 --> 00:33:18,300 big huge moves. For instance, Bitcoin. I called that thing, I call that thing, it's 7500 to 20,000 and then reach for 20,000. I said it wasn't going to 20,000
196 00:33:18,600 --> 00:33:27,720 it was 19,700. And I said it's gonna go to 6000. And everybody laughed and went down. And I say I was gonna go down 3000. But it went down to like 32. And then
197 00:33:29,880 --> 00:33:36,690 I think a couple times I had it wrong publicly. And then I said that we would go to 20,000.
198 00:33:38,220 --> 00:33:49,500 By Christmas, I think it was 2020. And then I said 30,000 Money years and it was off by about 18 hours, it went to 30,000. On the second I believe it was on
199 00:33:49,500 --> 00:34:03,480 January 2021. Now I said 55,060 6000 That was about as far as I could see it go. And we went just a little bit above 66,000 and hasn't been doing much sense. But
200 00:34:03,480 --> 00:34:13,140 I didn't do anything with that with real money. So I missed a huge run in something that would have otherwise paid out a lot of money. And I've missed a
201 00:34:13,140 --> 00:34:21,720 lot of moves in the futures markets and a lot of commodities. I missed a lot of stock moves. You know, while I was teaching Forex, there's a lot of stock
202 00:34:21,720 --> 00:34:35,850 movement and index futures that I didn't participate in. Guess what? It's okay. I'm able to still find trades are not starving. And that's the reality you're
203 00:34:35,850 --> 00:34:46,950 gonna have to come to terms and the grip with you have no way of participating in every single move. And don't think that you're gonna find every big move,
204 00:34:46,980 --> 00:34:55,320 you're not gonna participate in every single price swing. You're not going to folks, I miss moves, you're gonna miss moves and it's okay, it's part of this
205 00:34:55,320 --> 00:35:04,170 game. This business is going to still run and do the same things. We're looking for all Time, and you're not going to participate in every move. Okay? So give
206 00:35:04,170 --> 00:35:15,900 yourself the permission, okay? To be human, you're going to do it wrong. Sometimes you're going to see it for something it's not. And you're going to
207 00:35:15,900 --> 00:35:27,150 miss that big move. I had a little piece of this today, but I didn't get the whole thing. I wish I would have, but I didn't. And it's okay. I forgive myself
208 00:35:27,150 --> 00:35:32,970 for being a good husband and take them on wife today airport, I know this is all too much stuff and you don't care. Somebody like to say those things in the
209 00:35:32,970 --> 00:35:41,400 comments get to the point. The point is, you do this, you're going to have these elements creep in? And how are you going to deal with it, you're gonna get mad
210 00:35:41,400 --> 00:35:51,990 and go on social media, and you blurt out and curse and say, these markets suck. No, that's not what you should be doing. You should just reason with yourself
211 00:35:52,080 --> 00:35:59,790 ahead of time, say, Okay, I'm not going to be able to do everything. I'm not going to participate in every single move. And this is what happened sometimes
212 00:36:00,720 --> 00:36:09,060 doesn't mean the models broken, I promise you, in over the next couple of weeks, you're going to see the model delivering like it's done in the past. And it's
213 00:36:09,060 --> 00:36:17,520 fine. It's going to there's going to be times when the market shifts in and out. And the market structure is just too overwhelmingly bullish or too
214 00:36:17,520 --> 00:36:28,170 overwhelmingly bearish in this instance, in the bearish sense I gave you guys just was a lot more bearish than the model would permit for entry. But you can
215 00:36:28,170 --> 00:36:36,030 see there's fair pay gaps in here you can use to participate. Dropping down to two minute chart, let's see, again, refined in real nice here. And then once
216 00:36:36,030 --> 00:36:48,420 more in here, and then dropped down into that noon time. Karina important low, which is what I taught you in this mentorship already, in that two minute
217 00:36:48,570 --> 00:36:59,010 imbalance you can see on one minute chart here. And here. Really nice delivery there. And these are just simple little imbalances to get in sync with what is
218 00:36:59,010 --> 00:37:09,630 already in motion, not needing to see it rally above the 30 opening price, because it's not likely to. So it takes a little bit of courage to get in here
219 00:37:09,630 --> 00:37:18,540 and trade these types of setups. But that's what you do, or you don't do anything. And you just tape read you watch it when it doesn't, it's okay, I
220 00:37:18,540 --> 00:37:26,940 would like to see it drop here into the drop. Yes. And you study that and give you another layer of a gap in here that's not highlighted, and it rallies up to
221 00:37:26,940 --> 00:37:36,600 appear shorter block and sells off and your stop is above here. And just because it goes down lower doesn't mean jam your stop loss to here, because that's what
222 00:37:36,600 --> 00:37:49,560 happens. You need to have time and price behind you before you start moving your stop loss. And ultimately, trades obviously lower into that noon time. Alright,
223 00:37:49,560 --> 00:38:00,180 so I think that's going to be it. The next episode on Thursday, I'm going to show you a couple things inside the trading platform on trading view that I
224 00:38:00,180 --> 00:38:13,410 think are useful. If the answer is a few things. And one of those students made mention that could I literally go in and show how to set up the Fibonacci. So I
225 00:38:13,410 --> 00:38:21,030 thought it was kind of simple already. But obviously some of you are really, really new. And you're not familiar with the trading view platform. So I'm going
226 00:38:21,030 --> 00:38:28,200 to add that at the end of the video on Thursday coming up. Okay, so that waits at the end and anybody that already knows how to do it, they don't have to go
227 00:38:28,200 --> 00:38:36,240 through much all that stuff, but I'll give you another teaching and messing obviously, on Thursday. Until I talk to you then be safe