ICT YT - 2022-04-22 - ICT Mentorship 2022 Episode 20.srt

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2022-04-30 15:53
1 00:00:05,400 --> 00:00:17,370 ICT: Alright folks, welcome back. Because just like yesterday, last time we spoke. Alright, so here we have one of those instances where as luck would have
2 00:00:17,370 --> 00:00:31,770 it, the hands of feet, the planets aligned, all those factors came in on something I gave you an analysis last night. Now, before you start snickering
3 00:00:31,770 --> 00:00:44,880 and rolling your eyes, and sending your husband up to slap me on stage, just understand that this is just one piece, one little piece of price action, and
4 00:00:44,880 --> 00:00:54,720 the delivery, that the algorithm will likely not every single instance, but it will likely repeat. Okay, it's the logic that I've shared on this YouTube
5 00:00:54,720 --> 00:01:06,420 channel. And I've been asked to obviously, if you read the comments in the videos, can I show an example of this working in London session for forex? No
6 00:01:06,420 --> 00:01:16,110 problem. To do that I set the stage with the analysis last night, there are folks out there who say I don't know how to pick the tops and the bottoms, or
7 00:01:16,110 --> 00:01:25,890 the highs and the lows of the day. They don't know what I'm teaching. So it's easy for them to say those types of things. And a new student may stumble upon
8 00:01:25,890 --> 00:01:35,220 their comment may stumble upon their YouTube channel. And whatever their medium is, they follow that logic without investigating it, or looking into whether or
9 00:01:35,220 --> 00:01:46,620 not these things that I claim are true. So without a safety net last night, I outlined it for you explain what it should do, why it should take place. And
10 00:01:46,620 --> 00:02:00,390 therefore, we watch? And do I see in my chart, like you should see in yours, what I outlined. Not exactly to the level I was outlining, but the general
11 00:02:00,390 --> 00:02:11,040 premise was there. And what I mean by that? Well, we were in this area here. And I mentioned that I felt that it was going to go below the 100 level. And if I
12 00:02:11,040 --> 00:02:21,450 were making the market numbers, if I was the market maker, providing the parameters in which the dollar index will go down to set up a buying
13 00:02:21,450 --> 00:02:34,410 opportunity, I would take it down to the 9999 point 92 level. Okay, and you can check me on that with the video uploaded in. I can't edit a video on YouTube.
14 00:02:34,500 --> 00:02:44,280 Once it's there. It's there. Okay, so I know some of you actually downloaded them, let's that's fine. But go to Episode 19, which is the one I just did last
15 00:02:44,280 --> 00:02:54,870 night. And listen to the 20 minute mark around the 10 second in that vicinity, let it play for a minute or so. And you'll hear me outline the very thing that
16 00:02:54,870 --> 00:03:07,020 you're seeing in your chart right now. So the question is going to be have I know, the call that level in? Why did I know that it was likely set up a month
17 00:03:07,020 --> 00:03:18,930 and set up? Well, I'm going to teach that to you tonight. So understand that this is not the model for my daughter. This is not in addition to the model, I'm
18 00:03:18,930 --> 00:03:30,720 just simply answering questions, because I got a lot of them. And I'm not trying to push this inside of the model for this YouTube mentorship. Because the next
19 00:03:30,720 --> 00:03:38,880 step is going to be can you go into London and do live sessions so we can copy what you're going to do that. Okay. Now some of you are gonna be upset, say, Oh,
20 00:03:38,880 --> 00:03:47,400 well see, you're not proving anything. Well, if you're not seeing this as proof, move along. Okay, just move along. I'm only gonna do what I'm willing to do.
21 00:03:47,670 --> 00:03:57,330 Okay, and I'm having fun showing what I'm showing. And it's really enough. Only those individuals that want to be spoon fed setups and trades and piggyback my
22 00:03:57,330 --> 00:04:04,890 ideas. They're the only ones that really push and twist my arm. And they're going to be frustrated. So I'm just letting you know, that's not going to
23 00:04:04,890 --> 00:04:14,430 happen. So don't ask, I don't care how many times you present it nicely in a comment or request, it's simply not going to happen. It's important for you to
24 00:04:14,430 --> 00:04:25,920 go in and find the setups on your own using what I'm teaching. So I mentioned that we would drop below that 100 level. Why did I pick the 99.92 level? Okay,
25 00:04:25,920 --> 00:04:39,390 well, if you look at the price action over here, okay, we had this run up at the beginning of that candle right there. Just draw that out and tell him
26 00:04:40,740 --> 00:04:52,560 I gave you about 99.959 9.9 to level eight a small little range of about three pips. That's what I was eyeballing last night. Now. I was talking to you
27 00:04:52,590 --> 00:05:01,440 obviously before midnight. Now there's things that I teach and have in my repertoire that helps me fine tune the load They're not going to teach that
28 00:05:01,440 --> 00:05:09,510 here. And then, because I have a community, obviously, I'm obligated to, I'm not obligated here. Okay, so I don't want any thinking you can guilt me into doing
29 00:05:09,510 --> 00:05:18,690 more than I'm already willing to do. But just know that there's things that I basically use that my repertoire at midnight, that will help me fine tuning the
30 00:05:18,690 --> 00:05:31,410 actual low within about two to three pips. Sometimes right on the very low, but it's not needed. Okay. The idea that I just gave on the fly last night, when I
31 00:05:31,410 --> 00:05:41,610 was doing the commentary, was really simply just rooted on the idea of this extension. And ending at Real Net candles high. And just eyeballing it. So
32 00:05:42,030 --> 00:05:55,020 that's what I was looking at. I expected it to drop down. I'm not convinced that we're going to see this top yet. So I felt that it dropped down here. And also
33 00:05:55,500 --> 00:06:02,760 being a set up going into London, that's what I would expect. And I'm gonna teach you how to use that information, if that's what you want to investigate
34 00:06:02,760 --> 00:06:12,300 and studying on your own. But notice that we ran up above these multi vehicle highs, and that's what we ran for the intraday price action target. So the high
35 00:06:12,300 --> 00:06:20,670 today that was set initially around the mid length timeframe, it dropped down, creating the entire run lower, creating the London low, real close to where I
36 00:06:20,670 --> 00:06:27,900 was outlining and not exactly, obviously, but it's good enough for government work. And the market starts to rally and it takes out the initial high of the
37 00:06:27,900 --> 00:06:38,250 day. But more specifically, it aims for these really clean levels have this hot here, here. And here. Remember, I was teaching just like this level here, the
38 00:06:38,250 --> 00:06:48,360 market does not like to leave that. That is not efficient. Now, it's efficient for technical analysis, retail one and one, where they will see that as
39 00:06:48,390 --> 00:06:59,220 resistance, it looks perfect. That's what they want. Because the books teach that the books are meant to trip you up. It's flawed logic, folks. I mean, I
40 00:06:59,220 --> 00:07:09,210 hate to say this type of thing to certain individuals, because they they take aim at me like I'm trying to be literal everyone else. It's not that I'm trying
41 00:07:09,210 --> 00:07:18,330 to belittle anyone else, I'm trying to shake you by the lapels and simply say, Look, listen to what I'm saying, don't believe what I'm saying, investigate the
42 00:07:18,330 --> 00:07:27,420 things I'm stating in the video. So that way, you can come to your own conclusion. Either I'm making things up. We're, there's really logic behind it.
43 00:07:27,450 --> 00:07:37,860 And you can dismiss 99.9% of the things out there that everyone looks in relies on. Having your charts as far as analysis concepts or indicators, you don't need
44 00:07:37,860 --> 00:07:48,600 all that stuff. So if I'm suggesting, as I mentioned last night in the video, we were dropped down here and then start to go higher. That sets the stage for what
45 00:07:49,830 --> 00:07:59,730 if this is going to be a point at which it reacts and goes higher, as I was outlining around this time period and in the video. That means the opposite
46 00:07:59,730 --> 00:08:08,190 should be seen for Europe. But before we get into that, it's fine tune this a little bit more on a 15 minute timeframe. You can see we dropped down during the
47 00:08:08,190 --> 00:08:16,110 low of the day in London Open. That's our kill zone, teach here on the YouTube channel. It's two o'clock in the morning to five o'clock in the morning, New
48 00:08:16,110 --> 00:08:27,960 York local time. So if you are using the time window thing over here, set it to local New York time, two o'clock to five o'clock in the morning, that's the kill
49 00:08:27,960 --> 00:08:38,100 zone for London Open market comes down creates the low of the day, runs back up back into an order block here. I'll let you look at the lower timeframes. You'll
50 00:08:38,100 --> 00:08:48,390 see that is in fact, an order block. And optimal trade entry in the market starts to create its run up into the relative equal highs sweeping that as a
51 00:08:48,420 --> 00:08:59,880 daily objective. Now, if this is the low of the day, and if it's what I've outlined in advance and you seen that last night beforehand, this is what I
52 00:08:59,880 --> 00:09:11,610 expected to see price drop down in start to go higher. At the same time, Euro runs all the way back up to the previous week's high.
53 00:09:13,980 --> 00:09:21,090 How is this likely to be a false breakout. We have to use intermarket relationships, like I'm showing you with dollar index. So if you're trading
54 00:09:21,090 --> 00:09:30,720 Forex, it's important to relate your analysis in the trading market. Okay, for instance, if you're looking at Euro, that's your trading market. You have to
55 00:09:30,720 --> 00:09:42,330 have a barometer something to measure its movement with and that's intermarket relationships. So having that with the dollar dollar coming down to the flatline
56 00:09:42,330 --> 00:09:53,100 last night, that it would be a bullish area, it'd be a sensitive price point to see in advance higher because its relationship with the euro, it's inverted. So
57 00:09:53,100 --> 00:10:07,740 if the dollar is going down to that level, that level being 99.92 It's not a surprise to see Euro rally higher as it's doing that. But what is the Euro
58 00:10:07,770 --> 00:10:16,800 reaching for this high and then went so far as to go up above the previous week's high. So they really reached up in their took out the previous week's
59 00:10:16,800 --> 00:10:28,470 high at that same instance right there, that's when the dollar hit the objective I told you last night, that would be a buying opportunity for dollar. If it's a
60 00:10:28,470 --> 00:10:37,860 buying opportunity for dollar, then it's a shorting opportunity at that very moment. Look at your own charts and study. At the moment it hits this level
61 00:10:37,860 --> 00:10:48,720 here, it's the same moment that the dollar index is hitting that area I was outlining last night for a buying opportunity for dollar. So this is a false
62 00:10:48,720 --> 00:10:57,870 breakout. Because my analysis was done and shared with you openly that that would be a buying opportunity for dollar. Setting the stage for what as I
63 00:10:57,870 --> 00:11:08,790 outlined on bearish foreign currency. Could I have bought that? Sure. Because I'm expecting the dollar index to drop down to that 99.92 Did I know I went to
64 00:11:08,790 --> 00:11:17,550 sleep. I was tired. So I'm not concerned about that. I didn't take the short either. I don't care. I don't want to be in every single move. And I'm not
65 00:11:17,550 --> 00:11:26,970 trying to trade Forex right now. But to prove to you folks that are sitting out there asking the see if it can be done in London, does the concepts work? Can I
66 00:11:26,970 --> 00:11:38,100 call a move? Can I give an idea? Can I do these things before it happens? Yes. But simply because I can, doesn't obligate me to. Okay, I'm not here trying to
67 00:11:38,100 --> 00:11:45,930 perform magic tricks for you. Okay, I'm not, I'm not trying to do that. I'm trying to teach you to trust your own analysis and lean on your own experience.
68 00:11:46,260 --> 00:11:58,950 Even in the early stages, when there isn't that much of it. It's okay, he learned to grow gradually. Alright, so the 15 minute time frame, you can see
69 00:11:58,950 --> 00:12:07,260 that the Euro went up into its kill zone here two o'clock in the morning, five o'clock in the morning, New York local time. So it creates the highs of the day.
70 00:12:07,620 --> 00:12:16,920 So in this price run, we're gonna start stripping it down, I'm gonna make it very easy not make this video very long, I'm going to jump right to a very small
71 00:12:16,920 --> 00:12:33,180 timeframe chart. Two Minute, has the very clean, fair value got. So after it ran above that old, weekly high, the market trades lower and takes up that short
72 00:12:33,180 --> 00:12:40,500 term low. Now some of you might see this short term loan, say well, why don't you use that low instead of this one here? Well, the reason why is the fair
73 00:12:40,500 --> 00:12:49,680 value gap forms right here on this candle. Once that candle closes the very next candle, it opens essentially right at that low. So it hasn't really moved away,
74 00:12:49,680 --> 00:12:58,860 it hasn't really shown me what displacement, something energetic where it moves away from that fair value gap. That's the important factor. So we have the fair
75 00:12:58,860 --> 00:13:07,590 value gap here. And then it moves lower than that short term low. Now we have a shift in market structure, the market could have came back up into this rung
76 00:13:07,590 --> 00:13:16,530 here and offered an entry here, but it didn't notice that it went a little bit lower, that's fine, and then rallies up to that level here. This is the entry
77 00:13:16,530 --> 00:13:26,820 point. Now, think about where your stop loss would be and think about where your entry would be based on what I taught you use in New York session. This is an
78 00:13:26,820 --> 00:13:29,580 opportunity to pause the video and think about the fractured annotations.
79 00:13:35,790 --> 00:13:46,920 You smirking? Aren't you thinking I'm not positive, so you just might as well get on with it ICT. Okay, so here we have a zoomed in two minute chart. And here
80 00:13:46,920 --> 00:13:55,200 is the fair value gap level that you would be putting your limit order in. So it gets filled essentially right there. Remember, it's not going to be placed in
81 00:13:55,200 --> 00:14:04,950 the marketplace for a shorting opportunity or entry or limit anytime in here because it has to move away from the fear of a gap. So it doesn't own this
82 00:14:04,950 --> 00:14:15,510 candle here. So we have that run through the short term low. We have displacement. It was energetic move lower away from the fair value gap. It
83 00:14:15,510 --> 00:14:23,460 doesn't get to here it goes a little bit deeper. We wait. We don't chase it. We don't go here thinking oh, I missed the move. We still have time see all this
84 00:14:23,460 --> 00:14:35,340 over here. the kill zone for London Open is still open. So we allow for that retracement higher your fill here. Maybe one pip at maybe half a PIP or maybe a
85 00:14:35,340 --> 00:14:42,780 full PIP above this candle is high. That would be your entry but we're just going to use the actual candle. Hi, that will be your limit order entry,
86 00:14:42,930 --> 00:14:56,520 hypothetically 1.0924 and four pipettes. That's your entry. your stop loss will be above the high here that comes in at 1.0936 and a half in the heat or the
87 00:14:56,520 --> 00:15:12,930 drawdown that you absorb. Hypothetically if You were to use that entry point is 1.09301. So basically not even five pips. Okay, so we're about five pips around
88 00:15:12,930 --> 00:15:23,280 about five pips of drawdown. So essentially 25 We'll call it that very simplified episode is done. So five pips of drawdown, and never came to your
89 00:15:23,280 --> 00:15:36,330 stop with this gearing, okay? If you use sound money management, you how much can you risk if you're risking, you know, $1,000 per trade? Okay, you're
90 00:15:36,330 --> 00:15:45,270 thinking about money wise, don't do that. You think about it in terms of fixed percentage risk on equity. So that means you're simply going to look at how much
91 00:15:45,270 --> 00:15:55,800 money you have in the account. Take that times that five 1%. Okay, 1%, the maximum, preferably, you should be going a half of 1%, or maybe a quarter of 1%,
92 00:15:56,340 --> 00:16:04,140 you're learning you're not trying to do a lot in the beginning, you're trying to just simply trust the idea of seeing these moves. None of you should be going
93 00:16:04,140 --> 00:16:11,850 into demo. None of you would have done this, obviously, because we're talking about in hindsight, but I'm showing you the relationships of how when the market
94 00:16:12,090 --> 00:16:20,160 went to this level here and clear the ice stocks on the previous high on Euro, that's the very moment that the dollar index went down to the white line, it
95 00:16:20,160 --> 00:16:28,620 would be bullish. So the teeter totter effect or the inverse relationships, that if the dollar is going to go higher, that means that it's going to have weight,
96 00:16:29,550 --> 00:16:40,350 introduced to euro and it should start to go lower. So your entry here and your drawdown and your stop all those being what they are here. If we go out a little
97 00:16:40,350 --> 00:16:49,080 bit further, and I'm just using a five minute chart, so I can put everything in the fractal. In other words, the fractals this move up and then down. That way,
98 00:16:49,080 --> 00:16:55,800 you can see it all and have the candles still be clean, and have everything on one chart. So that's the only reason why I'm showing the five minute chart. It's
99 00:16:55,800 --> 00:17:04,920 not that I'm doing anything special with it, okay, it's just this show you the overall dynamic of this price run up the rejection, the optimal trade entry that
100 00:17:05,010 --> 00:17:14,460 would be used with the fair that he got used on the two minute timeframe. All the levels and things here being as they were on the two minute chart. And if
101 00:17:14,460 --> 00:17:24,930 you did a Fibonacci run from the low here, why this one because it was the most energetic starting this price right here. That will be apparent price, like 50%
102 00:17:24,960 --> 00:17:33,480 is around in here. So that would be a nice objective. Initially, that was your first target. If you're gonna hold for the full day, it could go down to this
103 00:17:33,480 --> 00:17:42,960 area here. And lo and behold, we have that imbalance the trades right into that rather handsomely. So there's your example using it, I gave you the framework
104 00:17:42,960 --> 00:17:48,840 beforehand, I told you what to expect in the dollar index, and everybody should know that the Euro is going to be the opposite direction of whatever the dollar
105 00:17:48,840 --> 00:17:55,140 is going to do. So hopefully this has been insightful to you and you got something out of it. And I'll talk to you next time next week. Next Tuesday,
106 00:17:55,140 --> 00:17:58,860 actually, Lord willing, enjoy your weekend and be safe